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[Kirian]

Germany, 1933:  The government is corrupt and paranoid.  No one can be trusted.  Can you bring about Hitler's rise or fall?

Welcome to Secret Hitler.  The full rules are available here:  https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/maxtemkin/secret-hitler/posts/1426121

----

The game is played in rounds, each of which has three phases:

Election Phase

1. The first Presidential candidate will be chosen randomly; after that, candidacy passes clockwise (down the list).

2. The Presidential candidate selects another player to run as the Chancellor candidate.  This cannot be either player who recently enacted a policy in the Legislative Phase.

3. You may discuss as much or as little as you wish.  At any time, PM your vote to the moderator.  After all players have voted, the moderator will reveal the results of the vote.  Ballots are simultaneous but not secret; all votes will be revealed.

4. If the vote is tied or a majority votes No, the next player becomes the Presidential candidate.  If this happens three times in a row, the top policy is immediately enacted.

5. If a majority votes Yes, the next phase begins.

Legislative Phase

The Legislative Phase happens entirely in PMs.  No discussion may happen during this phase.

1. The moderator will send a PM to the President with the three drawn policies.

2. The President will PM the moderator and indicate a discard.

3. The moderator will PM the Chancellor with the remaining two cards.

4. The Chancellor will PM the moderator and indicate a discard and a card to enact.

5. The moderator will reveal the enacted policy.  After this, everyone is free to discuss what happened.  As with all social deduction games, you are free to lie.

6. If a fascist policy is enacted, the Executive phase may occur.  Otherwise, another election is held.

Executive Phase

The President must use the power granted.  They are free to solicit advice from any or all players, but the President must make the final decision.

Policy Peek -- 3rd action with 5-6 players

The moderator will PM the President with the top three cards.  They go back in the same order; no action is required.  The President may tell other players what the cards were, or keep it secret, or lie.

Special Election -- 3rd action with 7-10 players

The President publicly selects the next candidate for President.  After the special election (and any phases that would follow it), the candidacy returns to its normal turn order.

Investigation -- 2nd action with 7-8 players, 1st and 2nd action with 9-10 players

The President publicly selects a player to investigate.  The moderator will PM the President with the party identity of the investigated player (Hitler will be identified as Fascist, but not as Hitler).  The President may keep the information secret, reveal it, or lie.

Execution -- 4th and 5th actions

The President selects a player to be executed.  If the player was Hitler, the moderator reveals this, and the Liberals win.  No other information is revealed.  The eliminated player cannot participate further, but will of course be recognized as a martyr for the cause if their team wins.

Veto Power -- 5th action

After the second execution, the Legislative phase changes.  The Chancellor may publicly decide to enact neither of the cards they are passed.  The President must publicly give the chancellor permission to do so, or refuse.  If the veto is used, none of the cards are revealed to other players, and this counts as a failed election.

Game End

If Hitler is executed, the Liberals win.
If 5 Liberal policies are enacted (of 6 in the deck), the Liberals win.
If 6 Fascist policies are enacted (of 11 in the deck), the Fascists win and Hitler rises to power.
If Hitler is elected Chancellor after three Fascist policies are enacted, the Fascists win.

----

Guidelines

Moderator text will be in red and usually in bold.

As with all games of this sort, Wheaton's Law applies at all times: Don't be a dick.  Private discussions or revelation of information, even between teammates, breaks the game and counts as being a dick.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 12

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 2
Fascist Policies enacted: 5
Next Executive Power: Execution
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 6 cards
Discard: 4 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 6 Fascist, 4 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

Rounds, Votes, Policies

Round 1:
Presidential Candidate:  gkrieg13
Chancellor Candidate: A Drowned Kernel
Ja (4): gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, Hydrad, Grujah
Nein (5): Archetype, Tables, ghostofmars, faust, EgorK
Result:  No government formed

Round 2:
Presidential Candidate:  Archetype
Chancellor Candidate:  ghostofmars
Ja (7): gkrieg13, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
Nein (2): Tables, Grujah
Result:  Fascist policy enacted; Archetype investigated EgorK

Round 3:
Presidential Candidate:  Tables
Chancellor Candidate: EgorK
Ja (7): gkrieg13, Archetype, Hydrad, faust, EgorK, Tables, Grujah
Nein (2): A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars
Result:  Fascist policy enacted; Tables investigated faust

Round 4:
Presidential Candidate:  A Drowned Kernel
Chancellor Candidate:faust
Ja (5): A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad, faust, Tables
Nein (4): EgorK, ghostofmars, Grujah,  Archetype
Result: Liberal policy enacted


Round 5:
Presidential Candidate:  ghostofmars
Chancellor Candidate:  Grujah
Ja (1): ghostofmars
Nein (8):  A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad, faust, Tables, EgorK, Grujah,  Archetype
Result: No government formed

Round 6:
Presidential Candidate:  Hydrad
Chancellor Candidate:  gkrieg13
Ja (7): A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad, faust, Tables, Archetype, Grujah
Nein (2):  EgorK, ghostofmars
Result: Liberal policy enacted

Round 7:
Presidential Candidate:  Grujah
Chancellor Candidate:  A Drowned Kernel
Ja (2):  Grujah, ghostofmars
Nein (7):  EgorK, A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad, faust, Tables, Archetype
Result: No government formed

Round 8:
Presidential Candidate:  faust
Chancellor Candidate:  A Drowned Kernel
Ja (6):  Grujah, A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad, faust, Tables
Nein (3):  EgorK, Archetype, ghostofmars
Result: Fascist policy enacted; Special Election called

Round 8S (Special Election):
Presidential Candidate:  Grujah
Chancellor Candidate:  Tables
Ja (4):  Grujah, ghostofmars, faust, Tables
Nein (5):  EgorK, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad
Result: No government formed

Round 9:
Presidential Candidate:  EgorK
Chancellor Candidate:  Archetype
Ja (2):  EgorK, Archetype
Nein (7): Grujah, ghostofmars, faust, Tables, A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Hydrad
Result: No government formed

Round 10:
Presidential Candidate:  gkrieg13
Chancellor Candidate:  Tables
Ja (6):  Grujah, ghostofmars, faust, Tables, gkrieg13, Hydrad
Nein (3):  Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, EgorK
Result: Fascist policy enacted; EgorK executed

Round 11:
Presidential Candidate:  Archetype
Chancellor Candidate:  Grujah
Ja (1):  Archetype
Nein (7):  A Drowned Kernel, EgorK, Grujah, ghostofmars, faust, Tables, gkrieg13, Hydrad
Result: No government formed

Round 12:
Presidential Candidate:  Tables
Chancellor Candidate:  faust
Ja (1):  A Drowned Kernel, EgorK, Grujah, ghostofmars, faust, Tables, gkrieg13, Hydrad
Nein (7):  Archetype
Result: Fascist policy enacted; faust executed

[Roadrunner7671]

/in

[Roadrunner7671]

Reserved

Darn it! I was 14 seconds too late.

[Grujah]

/in

[Hydrad]

/in

i'm interested

[EgorK]

/in

[gkrieg13]

/in

[faust]

/in

(as long as this does not start before Jan 2)

[Kirian]

/in

(as long as this does not start before Jan 2)

Right, I'll edit that up above.

[Archetype]

/in

[scott_pilgrim]

/tag

[ghostofmars]

/in if it's ok that I'm afk from Jan 17 to Jan 21.

[Kirian]

/tag

I assume this means you want to watch but not play?

[scott_pilgrim]

/tag

I assume this means you want to watch but not play?

Yeah

[Kirian]

So part of the deduction aspect of the game assumes that all players will vote, and votes will be revealed.  Do the players think a time limit is needed or useful, and if so (1) how long and (2) do we determine a vote for the non-voting player, or just try to find a sub?

[A Drowned Kernel]

/in

[Roadrunner7671]

/out

[Kirian]

/out

Awwww

[Roadrunner7671]

/out

Awwww

Sorry, this game seems overly complex!

[Tables]

/in if there's still space. Looks interesting.

[Kirian]

Player list is closed.

[Kirian]

Each of you should have received a PM with your faction and identity.

There are 5 Liberals and 4 Fascists in the game.  One of the Fascists is Hitler.  These nine roles have been distributed randomly.

Seating order has been randomized.

Please PM me if you feel your identity PM was in error and I screwed up as moderator.

Good luck everyone.

------------

gkrieg13, you are the first Presidential candidate.

[gkrieg13]

So what is the seating order now?

[Kirian]

So what is the seating order now?

Seating order is as noted in Post 2, under Current Game State.  I'll repost that in a moment as a reminder.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 1

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 0
Next Executive Power: Investigation

Deck: 17 cards
Discard: 0 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 11 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[Kirian]

Oops, I had too many cards in the policies deck!  I guess I just thought 17 was a weird number.  Corrected.

Edit: and reshuffled.

[gkrieg13]

So I don't think there is much to discuss, seeing as we don't really know anything yet.  I think I should elect a chancellor that is in the middle of the list so we get an idea of who they are when they get the presidential placard.  If I go next in line, I don't think it gives us as much information as later on in the pecking order.  I think we want the most info on the people who are in the end of the line?  I guess I don't have a feel for how many times we will make it around the table.

[Hydrad]

oh wait. i thought we had some control over who is the president candidate?

if we end up passing 3 fascist things then once it gets to a fascist person on the list can they just select hitler and there is nothing we can do to stop them?

[Hydrad]

oh ok i see. i reread the rules and after a chanceller is voted we can vote to say if we like it or not. that makes way more sense.

[Tables]

Yeah, first proposal in a game like this is generally a bit of a crapshoot. You could go for, say, ADK as he would be the final possible President were your proposal to go through, or possibly ghost or Hydrad as they're the other possible final presidents in round 2. Although this is all mostly based on Resistance meta, the same logic doesn't necessarily apply here. However, I do notice that I'm 3rd in the list, meaning if the first two proposals get voted down then either it's my proposal that's accepted or a random card gets drawn. I guess that's worth noting? Not really sure what to say about it though.

[Hydrad]

and ya I don't see a reason really yet to find out who to pick for the first few rounds.

(but you should pick me because I wanna do something. plus I'm in the dead center!)

actually everyone should just pick and trust me. easy game.

[Kirian]

Right.  You have no control over who the Presidential candidate is, but you have control over whether he is elected.

[Hydrad]

also hi everyone. I don't think I've talked much to some of you. But hi!

[Tables]

Okay, I've read over the rules, had a look at the Facism track to see what unlocks and when (it goes Investigate > Investigate > Special Election > Execution > Execution > Facism for those wondering), and am feeling a bit more confident in what happens during the game. So... right now all I can say is, make me Chancellor and I might consider voting yes? I think this might be the best option in general actually - we'll get to see how people vote around me, which is useful information considering I have 'hammer', if we can call it that. And well I'd be very happy to be the first chancellor, naturally.

[Hydrad]

Okay, I've read over the rules, had a look at the Facism track to see what unlocks and when (it goes Investigate > Investigate > Special Election > Execution > Execution > Facism for those wondering), and am feeling a bit more confident in what happens during the game. So... right now all I can say is, make me Chancellor and I might consider voting yes? I think this might be the best option in general actually - we'll get to see how people vote around me, which is useful information considering I have 'hammer', if we can call it that. And well I'd be very happy to be the first chancellor, naturally.

Oh right I forgot the first time you can't just shoot people and stuff. This makes more sense.

[Hydrad]

also sure it doesn't matter much to me for who gets it.

[faust]

Hi all. I have been crunching some numbers. There is a strategy to be followed in this game which simply goes like this: We never successfully elect a government, which results always in the top policy being enacted. Crunching numbers, this strategy gives us a chance at winning that is slightly below 50%. If we believe the game balanced, that is not an optimal strategy... but as we get more liberal policies enacted, we should definitely think about strategically not electing a government at some point.

[Hydrad]

Hi all. I have been crunching some numbers. There is a strategy to be followed in this game which simply goes like this: We never successfully elect a government, which results always in the top policy being enacted. Crunching numbers, this strategy gives us a chance at winning that is slightly below 50%. If we believe the game balanced, that is not an optimal strategy... but as we get more liberal policies enacted, we should definitely think about strategically not electing a government at some point.

but theres 11 fascist ones and only 6 liberals. I think thats a bit more then less then 50%?

[faust]

I think I'm in favor of having the first two proposals today fail... that is, unless someone proposes a government that includes me.

[Hydrad]

hmm but i guess liberal only needs 5 of them while fascist needs 6?

I haven't done the math so I could be totally wrong.

[faust]

Hi all. I have been crunching some numbers. There is a strategy to be followed in this game which simply goes like this: We never successfully elect a government, which results always in the top policy being enacted. Crunching numbers, this strategy gives us a chance at winning that is slightly below 50%. If we believe the game balanced, that is not an optimal strategy... but as we get more liberal policies enacted, we should definitely think about strategically not electing a government at some point.

but theres 11 fascist ones and only 6 liberals. I think thats a bit more then less then 50%?

Fascists need 6 policies enacted, but liberals only need 5. That makes it a bit better.

PPE yeah.

[faust]

Basically, with random strategy, liberals win if and only if there are at least 5 liberal policies in the top 10 cards.

[Hydrad]

Basically, with random strategy, liberals win if and only if there are at least 5 liberal policies in the top 10 cards.

hmm.. i guess that makes sense.

wait but there is 17 cards. is that like 40%?

[Hydrad]

nvm there are 6 cards so ya around 45% or something i guess. Thats not the worst odds.

[Tables]

Hi all. I have been crunching some numbers. There is a strategy to be followed in this game which simply goes like this: We never successfully elect a government, which results always in the top policy being enacted. Crunching numbers, this strategy gives us a chance at winning that is slightly below 50%. If we believe the game balanced, that is not an optimal strategy... but as we get more liberal policies enacted, we should definitely think about strategically not electing a government at some point.

Nice try, facist. But no, if my maths is correct, the chance of this working is only 15.95%. Which is significantly more than "just under 50%" by my reckoning. Basically, it requires picking 5 or 6 Liberals out of 6 from the first 10 cards, as you said. Or well it's equivalent to that problem anyway. And the chance of getting 6 is 1.70% and the chance of getting 5 is 14.25%. The chance of getting 4 is 35.63%, the chance of getting 3 is 33.94%, the chance of getting 2 is 12.73%, the chance of getting 1 is 1.70% and the chance of getting none is 0.06%.

So... let's not do this. I don't want to roll such a stacked die and just hope to win.

[Hydrad]

Hmm now i'm trying to figure out which ones right... I'm just going to grab some cards and test that way.

[Hydrad]

ok so after doing this with a deck of cards 11 times only 2 times did liberals win.

They got to 4 a ton of the time but it seemed very hard to get to the 5th one in 10.

Although this is a very low amount of attempts I think it was enough to show me that tables math is probably right. But who knows maybe I just got unlucky.

[Archetype]

Vote: faust

Like Resistance, it's pretty much a guess as to who to pick if you're a Liberal President (or, Hitler too, I guess)...I think you should choose me, but I may be a bit biased. Faust and Tables are giving me scummy math vibes.

[Hydrad]

hmm... and i thought we could all get along and be friends... I guess thats not how this game is really played.

[gkrieg13]

I feel like with resistance, there isn't a reason to shoot down the first election. We simply need more data.

[Hydrad]

I've never played resistance so I'll just do whatever.

[Archetype]

I feel like with resistance, there isn't a reason to shoot down the first election. We simply need more data.

I tend to reject it a few times just to see where people prefer to vote, but the group I play with often just accepts the first mission automatically so there really isnt that much info to garner. I've never played this game before, so hopefully things will be different.

[gkrieg13]

I'll pick someone who could be president in the second round if we elect me. So that's archetype, tables, or ADK. ADK seems best because I think we want to pick more toward the middle at the beginning. Does anyone have objections to this?

PPE

[gkrieg13]

I feel like with resistance, there isn't a reason to shoot down the first election. We simply need more data.

I tend to reject it a few times just to see where people prefer to vote, but the group I play with often just accepts the first mission automatically so there really isnt that much info to garner. I've never played this game before, so hopefully things will be different.

I feel like there won't be any tendencies seeing as none of us really know each other, and (I think) none of us have played this before.  I think that is why it is in best interest to accept the first mission automatically with resistance, because even if there is a spy on the mission, they will probably pass the mission just to get resistance credit.

[faust]

I'll pick someone who could be president in the second round if we elect me. So that's archetype, tables, or ADK. ADK seems best because I think we want to pick more toward the middle at the beginning. Does anyone have objections to this?

PPE

If I were Arch or Tables, I would oppose any government that does not include me. After all, if your proposal fails, they will get a chance to form a government.

[faust]

Hi all. I have been crunching some numbers. There is a strategy to be followed in this game which simply goes like this: We never successfully elect a government, which results always in the top policy being enacted. Crunching numbers, this strategy gives us a chance at winning that is slightly below 50%. If we believe the game balanced, that is not an optimal strategy... but as we get more liberal policies enacted, we should definitely think about strategically not electing a government at some point.

Nice try, facist. But no, if my maths is correct, the chance of this working is only 15.95%. Which is significantly more than "just under 50%" by my reckoning. Basically, it requires picking 5 or 6 Liberals out of 6 from the first 10 cards, as you said. Or well it's equivalent to that problem anyway. And the chance of getting 6 is 1.70% and the chance of getting 5 is 14.25%. The chance of getting 4 is 35.63%, the chance of getting 3 is 33.94%, the chance of getting 2 is 12.73%, the chance of getting 1 is 1.70% and the chance of getting none is 0.06%.

So... let's not do this. I don't want to roll such a stacked die and just hope to win.

You're right... I think I have calculated this with 7 liberal policies for some reason.

[ghostofmars]

So from the rules, I gather that this plays more like Resistance than Mafia. I think that we should carefully manage who (potentially) becomes president in the same way you need to manage who proposes a mission in Resistance. Unlike Resistance we don't have to accept any of the three proposals, but that comes at the cost of a (likely) fascist law, so we don't want to do this except in extreme cases.
Hence, we should accept one of gkrieg, Archetype, or Tables proposals. As I am a potential president in the 2nd turn if gkrieg is not elected, I will reject the first government unless I would be chancellor.

Currently, I think that the president is the more important role. While the chancellor ultimately decides which policy is enacted the president can discard a liberal law and claim that he didn't draw any.

What do people think about revealing the drawn cards. I think it is in our best interest that the president and the chancellor claim what cards they drew so that we can card count. Obviously, either of them could lie, but perhaps one can deduce a fascist from that...

One thing, I'd like to propose is shadow cabinets. The idea is that all of the potential president candidates suggest which chancellor they would appoint if it came to them. So we get some information out of the later players even if we accept an earlier government. Perhaps this makes only sense after gkrieg's proposal when we have some information. Obviously there is no rule that forces a player to actually appoint the chancellor that one had in one's shadow cabinet, but that would demand some scrutiny.

One final point: What do you think about the strategy for the president in the 2L1F case. In my opinion one should pass both liberal laws to guarantee a success over passing 1L1F and letting the chancellor decide.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hi guys!

I need to read the rules, you're all super scummy for having done so already.

[Tables]

Yes, I think objectively speaking passing 2 Liberal Laws is best. Remember there's only 6 liberal laws in the deck in total. If two come up together and both get passed over, that means there's only four left before the deck reshuffles. That seems to me like it'd make things very dangerous.

Shadow Cabinets... intuitively it sounds good, especially later in the game when people have good reads I think it'll happen somewhat naturally actually, as people will start being somewhat more vocal about reads, saying who they trust and whatnot, but earlier in the game I think it's going to come down so much to how people vote and the like in the previous round that I don't think it'll be effective.

I'll pick someone who could be president in the second round if we elect me. So that's archetype, tables, or ADK. ADK seems best because I think we want to pick more toward the middle at the beginning. Does anyone have objections to this?

PPE

If I were Arch or Tables, I would oppose any government that does not include me. After all, if your proposal fails, they will get a chance to form a government.

Yes, pretty much that. Especially as I have 3rd proposal, I don't see any reason to vote up anything that doesn't include me at this point, and even if it does include me, I'd have to consider if I prefer Chancellor, president, or even just drawing the game out longer to get more voting information. Showing my hand how I'm going to vote a little, sure, but it seems fairly intuitive right now.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote: faust

Like Resistance, it's pretty much a guess as to who to pick if you're a Liberal President (or, Hitler too, I guess)...I think you should choose me, but I may be a bit biased. Faust and Tables are giving me scummy math vibes.

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

[Tables]

Vote: faust

Like Resistance, it's pretty much a guess as to who to pick if you're a Liberal President (or, Hitler too, I guess)...I think you should choose me, but I may be a bit biased. Faust and Tables are giving me scummy math vibes.

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

Sleeping, most likely. Night y'all.

[Kirian]

What do people think about revealing the drawn cards.

Assuming you mean actual revealing of the cards, that's outside the scope of the rules.  If you mean the players telling you what was drawn (and possibly lying), that's fine.

[gkrieg13]

I don't want this to lag too much so I'll nominate after I hear what Archetype and Tables plan to do.

[Archetype]

I don't want this to lag too much so I'll nominate after I hear what Archetype and Tables plan to do.

Considering I'm next in line, it wouldn't make sense to vote ja! for your proposal unless I'm on it.

Vote: faust

Like Resistance, it's pretty much a guess as to who to pick if you're a Liberal President (or, Hitler too, I guess)...I think you should choose me, but I may be a bit biased. Faust and Tables are giving me scummy math vibes.

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

I was (mostly) kidding. If everything is known, it's hard for a bad guy to get away with using math to convince somebody since they'll usually be called out if they're wrong.

I like ghost's shadow idea, but agree it should be done on later missions when people have a better idea of who they'd like to choose.

[faust]

I know now why my math was wrong:

If Hitler is executed, the Liberals win.
If 5 Liberal policies are enacted (of 7 in the deck), the Liberals win.
If 6 Fascist policies are enacted (of 11 in the deck), the Fascists win and Hitler rises to power.
If Hitler is elected Chancellor after three Fascist policies are enacted, the Fascists win.

Kirian, you might want to change this for future reference.

[faust]

Yes, pretty much that. Especially as I have 3rd proposal, I don't see any reason to vote up anything that doesn't include me at this point, and even if it does include me, I'd have to consider if I prefer Chancellor, president, or even just drawing the game out longer to get more voting information. Showing my hand how I'm going to vote a little, sure, but it seems fairly intuitive right now.

So this is problematic. I don't think it matters much for Liberals if they are President or Chancellor. Fascists however really would prefer being President, where they can discard liberal policies without anyone knowing. Just going by this, I don't think I want Tables in the government.

[ghostofmars]

I don't want this to lag too much so I'll nominate after I hear what Archetype and Tables plan to do.

I would prefer if you wait until every player has checked in at least once. I think we have not heard from EgorK and Grujah yet.

[Tables]

Yes, pretty much that. Especially as I have 3rd proposal, I don't see any reason to vote up anything that doesn't include me at this point, and even if it does include me, I'd have to consider if I prefer Chancellor, president, or even just drawing the game out longer to get more voting information. Showing my hand how I'm going to vote a little, sure, but it seems fairly intuitive right now.

So this is problematic. I don't think it matters much for Liberals if they are President or Chancellor.

Strongly disagree. There's only one person I have any information on right now. Why would I trust any team that doesn't include me? That increases the chance of having one or both facists making the choice considerably. As president, I would have some control over the cards the Chancellor received, and also knowledge of them - and would get the investigate power should he choose a facist agenda. All things I'd want to guarantee are going to a person I can trust. As Chancellor, I get to see the two cards the president passes - if he passes liberal/facist, I get that information and can choose liberal. If he passes facist/facist, I at least know he did that.

[faust]

Yes, pretty much that. Especially as I have 3rd proposal, I don't see any reason to vote up anything that doesn't include me at this point, and even if it does include me, I'd have to consider if I prefer Chancellor, president, or even just drawing the game out longer to get more voting information. Showing my hand how I'm going to vote a little, sure, but it seems fairly intuitive right now.

So this is problematic. I don't think it matters much for Liberals if they are President or Chancellor.

Strongly disagree. There's only one person I have any information on right now. Why would I trust any team that doesn't include me? That increases the chance of having one or both facists making the choice considerably. As president, I would have some control over the cards the Chancellor received, and also knowledge of them - and would get the investigate power should he choose a facist agenda. All things I'd want to guarantee are going to a person I can trust. As Chancellor, I get to see the two cards the president passes - if he passes liberal/facist, I get that information and can choose liberal. If he passes facist/facist, I at least know he did that.

You got me wrong. I did not mean to say that liberals don't care whether they are in the government, but that it's not that important which of the posts they take.

[ghostofmars]

So I had a look at the possible scenarios leading to a fascist law. There are two main scenarios
a) The president claims he drew 3F, so that the government was forced to pass a F law.
b) The president claims the chancellor chose the F law out of a F/L choice.
Considering that the relative chances for 3F/2F1L/1F2L are approximately 25%/50%/25% it is more likely that the president is lying than that he is honest in scenario a. In scenario b, we know that (at least) one of president and chancellor are fascist. In scenario b, I would exclude both president and chancellor from any future government. In scenario a, I would hesitate to include the president in a government.
Furthermore, I doubt the chancellor would frequently opt to enact a fascist law (given the choice) if he knows the president is liberal. He must know that he is excluded from future governments and he gives the special power to a liberal president. Therefore, I think whether a fascist law is enacted reveals much more information about the president than about the chancellor.

Another thing I wonder is how we should use the investigation power (once it comes up). Should we vote which player to investigate and regard the president as fascist if he doesn't follow the vote; or should we let the president decide which player to investigate? In the latter case, we get more information about the president, because he is forced to select a player and can not hide behind the vote of the majority. On the other hand, we might select a more useful candidate as a group than the president does and the votes will also reveal some information about the other players.

[EgorK]

I am reading, just not yet ready to post math post

[Tables]

You got me wrong. I did not mean to say that liberals don't care whether they are in the government, but that it's not that important which of the posts they take.

Oh, I see. Hmm... As I said, I haven't actually considered it much. I think you're probably right, though. Facists have a lot more power as the President, but by a similar token I think that means liberals want to be president far more than facists do too, to avoid them getting that power. Liberal president, facist chancellor seems a lot better than the other way around.

PPE: Ghost's post seems to make sense. And I checked the numbers, they work out okay. Of course, there's also the chance the president wants the facist power specifically. I don't know how likely that is, perhaps later in the game to execute someone it's plausible, but... still seems like a very risky move, unless we have a very solid read on who Hitler is. So yeah, I think passing liberal laws should always be liberal priority, which seems obvious but eh, just saying.

[Grujah]

Will read everything after a finish the movie, but genreally accepted strategy that I saw on test playthroughs is that you give chancellor spot to somebody near the end of the queue cuz you get to know stuff about them sooner rather than having 1 player be completly unknown till for long time and you kinda disperse the power cuz he wont be president in long time.

[Grujah]

Furthermore, I doubt the chancellor would frequently opt to enact a fascist law (given the choice) if he knows the president is liberal. He must know that he is excluded from future governments and he gives the special power to a liberal president. Therefore, I think whether a fascist law is enacted reveals much more information about the president than about the chancellor.

Has some sense, but not really sure that's right. If fascist dont chose fascist law when president is liberal, than they either have to wait for their own turn and hope to draw 3 fascicsts or only make fascist-fascist teams which can easily be seen through.
Maybe veryearly, sure, enact a liberal one, but later, no way.

[gkrieg13]

I think I'm going to nominate at the end of today now that everyone has checked in.

[Kirian]

Once gkrieg has made a nomination, you may start sending vote PMs.

Please place Secret Hitler Round X Vote: [Yes|No] in the subject line.

[gkrieg13]

nominate: ADK

[ghostofmars]

Has some sense, but not really sure that's right. If fascist dont chose fascist law when president is liberal, than they either have to wait for their own turn and hope to draw 3 fascicsts or only make fascist-fascist teams which can easily be seen through.
Maybe veryearly, sure, enact a liberal one, but later, no way.

As far as I understood the main strategy for the fascists is to get Hitler elected. Every fascist chancellor that sacrifices himself to get a fascist law enacted is one potential fascist president less. So I can see one chancellor doing that to get the third fascist law and maybe in extreme cases two if they fall really behind in terms of enacted laws. But I doubt we see that before 2-3 liberal laws are enacted.

[Grujah]

What do people think about revealing the drawn cards. I think it is in our best interest that the president and the chancellor claim what cards they drew so that we can card count. Obviously, either of them could lie, but perhaps one can deduce a fascist from that...

I think, that like in mafia, bad guys want as few info shared as possible to increase confusion, the good guys want as much info as they can gather, so we definitely should share as much stuff as we can.

[faust]

So ADK, huh? I looked back on his posts, and this seems bad:

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

First, it is bad reasoning because Arch was only making a joke. But what's more, if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

[Kirian]

Waiting on votes from gkrieg and Grujah.

(This would be public information in an IRL game, as you'd be able to see whose hands aren't out for voting.)

[faust]

Question: Do we want to claim votes? Then Grujah's decision will be more informed and we can learn more form it. I assume gkrieg will vote yes.

I voted No.

[gkrieg13]

Question: Do we want to claim votes? Then Grujah's decision will be more informed and we can learn more form it. I assume gkrieg will vote yes.

I voted No.

I just voted. I had forgotten to do so. All votes will be revealed at the end of the voting.

[Kirian]

A bit late for that, alas.

gkrieg, ADK, Grujah, and Hydrad vote yes.  I'm on mobile so not typing out the nos.

By 5-4, no government is formed.  Archetype is now the Presidential candidate.

[faust]

Interesting.

I have a definite preference that the next government proposal should be successful. No need to nominate me; I will vote yes unless Tables or ADK are picked.

[faust]

Grujah, Hydrad, why did you vote yes?

[gkrieg13]

Why did so many people vote no?

[faust]

Why did so many people vote no?

I stated my reasons. Arch and Tables are no surprise.

[gkrieg13]

Interesting.

I have a definite preference that the next government proposal should be successful. No need to nominate me; I will vote yes unless Tables or ADK are picked.

Is this because you don't want Tables to be President?

[faust]

Interesting.

I have a definite preference that the next government proposal should be successful. No need to nominate me; I will vote yes unless Tables or ADK are picked.

Is this because you don't want Tables to be President?

Yes.

[A Drowned Kernel]

No love for me? Well I'd like to hear Arch's thoughts on everything since he's up next to nominate.

[Tables]

So ADK, huh? I looked back on his posts, and this seems bad:

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

First, it is bad reasoning because Arch was only making a joke. But what's more, if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

This seems like a big leap in logic. ADK said he wouldn't vote for a government with Arch on, that doesn't mean his top priority is stopping Arch getting into governement or that he would vote yes to any proposal not including Arch. Now obviously ADK can clarify if that's what he meant or not but this leap of reasoning just rubs me the wrong way.

A bit late for that, alas.

gkrieg, ADK, Grujah, and Hydrad vote yes.  I'm on mobile so not typing out the nos.

By 5-4, no government is formed.  Archetype is now the Presidential candidate.

4 Yes votes, that's rather surprising. gkrieg and ADK voting yes is unsurprising. Grujah and Hydrad is a little more surprising. Got a good reason to trust this team, either of you? Or well more generally, why did you vote yes?

[Grujah]

Grujah, Hydrad, why did you vote yes?

I did not really like this government, I'd prefer one where chancellor cannot be president soon.
However, much like ADK I didn't really like Archetype's "comment", so he is the one I trust the least, so I would have to shoot down that government, and would be forced to vote Tables. I'd rather not put myself in situation where I am force to vote yes.

[Tables]

Remember that you aren't forced to vote for my mission, it can be voted down to get a random card from the deck. That's not a good thing, as we've already established, but it's not quite as terrible as being forced to vote yes or instantly lose as in Resistance.

And right now, I don't find Arch's comment suspicious. Maybe there's something in it I'm missing, but it seemed rather tongue in cheek (heck it started with a vote for his suspicion, that seems like a pretty clear indicator to me), and well everything else that followed was just first post nonsense. But it got people talking and discussing suspicions, and honestly that's probably a good thing. I'm not saying I trust Arch either, just that I find it odd to jump on him based on what was effectively a RVS first post.

However something else I feel is worth pointing out is, I think that a lot like in Resistance, in this game it's more important to find one or two people that you trust, rather than aiming to scumhunt. Obviously, the latter is important, but unless you can nail Hitler, it's much more important to find one or two people you feel confident having as President and/or Chancellor. So rather than looking for who you are most suspicious of, it's better to look for who you think you can trust the most.

[Hydrad]

I voted yes because uh. I dunno we don't have any info yet and I figured that would give us some info.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted yes because uh. I dunno we don't have any info yet and I figured that would give us some info.

Based on this post I would be more likely to vote for a team with hydrad on it

[Grujah]

However something else I feel is worth pointing out is, I think that a lot like in Resistance, in this game it's more important to find one or two people that you trust, rather than aiming to scumhunt. Obviously, the latter is important, but unless you can nail Hitler, it's much more important to find one or two people you feel confident having as President and/or Chancellor. So rather than looking for who you are most suspicious of, it's better to look for who you think you can trust the most.

It is also important, especially as it is 5v4, to have at least one fascist pegged down so that if a liberal gets a bullet, it has a decent target. Liberal president trying to kill "this very liberal guy cuz it might be Hitler" and missing brings us to 4-4 which is really bad, so it is, I think, wiser to shoot a more probably regular fascist than a maybe Hitler.

Also, I am getting much better at spelling fascist, few post earlier I had like 2/10 accuracy, I am at least at 6/10 now

[Archetype]

I find ghostofmars towny, so I'd be likely to invite him to be my Chancellor.

Based on the votes, I am not too suspicious of Hydrad for voting Yes since, based on how he's played Mafia, something I expect him to do to 'gain more information'. I don't like the reasoning for Grujah's vote because I don't see what was so scummy about my initial post and it seems sort of like a cop out. But anyway...

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy? Obviously forcing a liberal policy near the end of the game would be the best move, but I've read that forcing players early game to make that commitment is a valid way to detect individuals. Also, I think all Presidents should not try to get fascist policies passed so that they get a power...that should be a side affect and not the goal.

[Grujah]

I find ghostofmars towny, so I'd be likely to invite him to be my Chancellor.

I agree that ghost seems towny.

I also agree that "giving a choice" is a good idea. At least early, before 3 liberal policies or so.

[faust]

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy?

I don't know, man. Giving the Chancellor a choice implies that you drew 2L1F. If you did that, and the Chancellor decides to enact the fascist policy, that means we cannot get 5 liberal policies before the reshuffle. That seems like a major problem, especially early on, when the next reshuffle is far away.

[A Drowned Kernel]

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy? Obviously forcing a liberal policy near the end of the game would be the best move, but I've read that forcing players early game to make that commitment is a valid way to detect individuals. Also, I think all Presidents should not try to get fascist policies passed so that they get a power...that should be a side affect and not the goal.

If the President draws Liberal-liberal-fascist, I think passing anything other than a liberal is a bad idea. The more liberal policies are enacted, the bolder the fascists will have to act.

[faust]

I kinda think Arch is towny for asking that question though. I feel better about giving him my vote. ghost is a decent choice, obviously not as good as me.

[Archetype]

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy?

I don't know, man. Giving the Chancellor a choice implies that you drew 2L1F. If you did that, and the Chancellor decides to enact the fascist policy, that means we cannot get 5 liberal policies before the reshuffle. That seems like a major problem, especially early on, when the next reshuffle is far away.

Not necessarily. They could've draw 2 F 1 L, discarding 1 F.

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy? Obviously forcing a liberal policy near the end of the game would be the best move, but I've read that forcing players early game to make that commitment is a valid way to detect individuals. Also, I think all Presidents should not try to get fascist policies passed so that they get a power...that should be a side affect and not the goal.

If the President draws Liberal-liberal-fascist, I think passing anything other than a liberal is a bad idea. The more liberal policies are enacted, the bolder the fascists will have to act.

I suppose, but if they did enact a fascist policy it not only gives the President a pretty good idea of what that player's alignment is, but also gives them a power that could potentially reveal more information.

It may be statistically better to force a liberal policy, I don't know, but I imagine it'd be difficult to quantify the information gained from presenting a choice. I'll wait for a few others to chime in.

[faust]

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy?

I don't know, man. Giving the Chancellor a choice implies that you drew 2L1F. If you did that, and the Chancellor decides to enact the fascist policy, that means we cannot get 5 liberal policies before the reshuffle. That seems like a major problem, especially early on, when the next reshuffle is far away.

Not necessarily. They could've draw 2 F 1 L, discarding 1 F.

I think it should be obvious that you would discard F in that situation, so I didn't think your question encompassed that scenario.

[Archetype]

What do people think about giving the Chancellor a choice, rather than forcing a specific type policy?

I don't know, man. Giving the Chancellor a choice implies that you drew 2L1F. If you did that, and the Chancellor decides to enact the fascist policy, that means we cannot get 5 liberal policies before the reshuffle. That seems like a major problem, especially early on, when the next reshuffle is far away.

Not necessarily. They could've draw 2 F 1 L, discarding 1 F.

I think it should be obvious that you would discard F in that situation, so I didn't think your question encompassed that scenario.

Fair point.

Unvote

[ghostofmars]

It may be statistically better to force a liberal policy, I don't know, but I imagine it'd be difficult to quantify the information gained from presenting a choice. I'll wait for a few others to chime in.

As I've said before, I expect to gain information mostly about the president. I don't think the chancellor will enact a fascist law when the president gives him a choice early in the game. If the president claims 2F1L and the chancellor claims 2F, I would put neither the president nor the chancellor on any further mission. The town majority improves from 5-4 to 4-3. That being said, I would still pass 2L if I drew 2L1F, just because definitely needing the reshuffle would suck.

Regarding the claims: Do you think the president or the chancellor should claim first? I have the feeling there could be some situation where it is beneficial that one claims before the other but I cannot pin it down. The important part is that Hitler/liberal do not know if they are paired with a fascist or not. So by forcing the order, we can avoid (half of the time) that Hitler waits until the other player acts first.

I find ghostofmars towny, so I'd be likely to invite him to be my Chancellor.

I would vote for that government.

Tables would you like to tell us your likely chancellor so that people can make a more informed choice?

[faust]

Regarding the claims: Do you think the president or the chancellor should claim first? I have the feeling there could be some situation where it is beneficial that one claims before the other but I cannot pin it down. The important part is that Hitler/liberal do not know if they are paired with a fascist or not. So by forcing the order, we can avoid (half of the time) that Hitler waits until the other player acts first.

Well, arguably a fascist President wants to nominate a fascist Chancellor. Maybe they nominate Hitler, but that seems very dangerous. So the more likely scenario is that President!Hitler nominates a fascist Chancellor by chance (haha). Which would mean we want the President to claim first, right?

[ghostofmars]

Well, arguably a fascist President wants to nominate a fascist Chancellor. Maybe they nominate Hitler, but that seems very dangerous. So the more likely scenario is that President!Hitler nominates a fascist Chancellor by chance (haha). Which would mean we want the President to claim first, right?

I would disagree; as a fascist president I would want to nominate a liberal chancellor. If a fascist law is passed both parts of the government will be held responsible. The only possibility where FP + FC is better (from a fascist perspective) is if you draw 2L1F and can discard 2 liberal laws.

But you are right - I think - that it is more likely that Hitler accidentally nominates a fascist chancellor than that a fascist president nominates Hitler. So I would agree that president should claim his cards first.

[Kirian]

Also, I am getting much better at spelling fascist, few post earlier I had like 2/10 accuracy, I am at least at 6/10 now

Be glad you're not trying to spell "fuchsia."

Google "fuschia" and you'll find multiple companies that use the misspelled version in their legal name.

[Hydrad]

this all sounds good to me!

[Archetype]

Alright. I'll do it.

Nominate: ghostofmars

[faust]

I would like Tables to announce his nominee though.

[Tables]

I would like Tables to announce his nominee though.

I don't have one just yet. Nobody has really stood out to me as especially liberal, and the votes here could make a big impact on who I want to nominate (those of you who know how I play resistance/mafia like games know I tend to put more stock into solid information like votes and results than I do into reads). I do have one somewhat pro-liberal reads; ADK, whose recent posts especially seem quite pro-liberal to me.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would like Tables to announce his nominee though.

I don't have one just yet. Nobody has really stood out to me as especially liberal, and the votes here could make a big impact on who I want to nominate (those of you who know how I play resistance/mafia like games know I tend to put more stock into solid information like votes and results than I do into reads). I do have one somewhat pro-liberal reads; ADK, whose recent posts especially seem quite pro-liberal to me.

Why?

[Kirian]

Still waiting on votes from ADK, EgorK, Grujah.

[Tables]

I would like Tables to announce his nominee though.

I don't have one just yet. Nobody has really stood out to me as especially liberal, and the votes here could make a big impact on who I want to nominate (those of you who know how I play resistance/mafia like games know I tend to put more stock into solid information like votes and results than I do into reads). I do have one somewhat pro-liberal reads; ADK, whose recent posts especially seem quite pro-liberal to me.

Why?

Asking things like that when someone has a good read on you has just cemented that read a little more. But mainly it comes down to:

1)

I voted yes because uh. I dunno we don't have any info yet and I figured that would give us some info.

Based on this post I would be more likely to vote for a team with hydrad on it

This observation seemed good to me, that Hydrad's argument seems to be pushing for more information. I'm still unsold on Hydrad, but taking the initiative and stating you had a good read on him from this, itself gave me a good read.

Also... uh, nevermind, I think it probably was just that one post that stood out to me. The last post before this was, sure, pro-liberal, but it's also something I think anyone would have said. That last one is something you could have easily kept quiet about if you wanted to, and that gave me a good read.

[faust]

I voted yes because uh. I dunno we don't have any info yet and I figured that would give us some info.

Based on this post I would be more likely to vote for a team with hydrad on it

This observation seemed good to me, that Hydrad's argument seems to be pushing for more information. I'm still unsold on Hydrad, but taking the initiative and stating you had a good read on him from this, itself gave me a good read.

Also... uh, nevermind, I think it probably was just that one post that stood out to me. The last post before this was, sure, pro-liberal, but it's also something I think anyone would have said. That last one is something you could have easily kept quiet about if you wanted to, and that gave me a good read.

Meh. The above post is classic Hydrad, and ADK, having played Mafia with Hydrad before, should know that. It does not say anything about Hydrad's alignment.

Thinking people are on your side because they agree with you is a trap.

[faust]

So. I don't trust Tables. I don't feel great about ADK. Egor, ADK, Grujah - I encourage you to support this government.

[faust]

Is there a way to get the activity level up? Have all people voted? What do you think of my read on Tables/ADK? Talk, talk, talk guys. Talk is how you win a deduction game.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I voted. I don't have terribly strong reads on anyone at the moment. If there's anyone I don't trust right now, it's probably Tables.

[gkrieg13]

I don't know what all your reads are based on Faust. I think we need something to actually happen before we can all give reads about who is good and who is bad

[faust]

I don't know what all your reads are based on Faust. I think we need something to actually happen before we can all give reads about who is good and who is bad

I don't buy this like at all. You play forum mafia. Do we just randomly lynch someone on D1? No. We can have the same here. You are just lazy.

[Grujah]

Can you please replace signup order with play order in post #1, it is confusing the hell out of me. (plus I have to search for play order all the time).

[gkrieg13]

I don't know what all your reads are based on Faust. I think we need something to actually happen before we can all give reads about who is good and who is bad

I don't buy this like at all. You play forum mafia. Do we just randomly lynch someone on D1? No. We can have the same here. You are just lazy.

The big difference is we can look at voting patterns, and how people react to other people.  I think that is lessened here because you want to vote for townie people as opposed to the people that look bad.  I agree that you can get a feel for someone's alignment based on their interaction with others and what they say, but I don't think it can be as strong as your reads seem to be.

[gkrieg13]

I do agree that tables not choosing a government before the current vote goes through is fishy.  He could always change it later, but it would be nice to know what the two alternatives are.  I guess the upside is flipping a card now is probably the best odds we'll have for card flipping all game.

[Kirian]

Can you please replace signup order with play order in post #1, it is confusing the hell out of me. (plus I have to search for play order all the time).

Sorry about that.  I'll actually remove things from the initial post and copy the "Status" post every so often.

A note on COs and the Legislative phase

The legislative phase has some quirks.  If FFF or LLL is drawn, the outcome is obvious.  However, I can't just post that or the entire draw is obvious.  I will still PM and wait for a response (even though I'll know the outcome of the response) for draw of FFF/LLL or for a pass of FF/LL.  If COs have been sent, I will announce those COs along with the results, so everyone has an understanding of the speed.

Vote outcomes in a couple minutes.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 2

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 0
Next Executive Power: Investigation

Deck: 17 cards
Discard: 0 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 11 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[Kirian]

Round 2 Voting

A new government is formed with Archetype as President and ghostofmars as Chancellor.

Yes:  Archetype, gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
No:  Tables, Grujah

Archetype, PM incoming with your three cards.

[Kirian]

Archetype draws three cards and discards one.

Ghostofmars discards a card by CO.

The revealed card is a Fascist policy.

Archetype must now investigate another player.

[ghostofmars]

Archetype must now investigate another player.

Archetype, I ask you not to do that immediately. We may suggest whom you should investigate first.

Independent of that is Archetype now my top fascist read. Of course it is possible that he drew 3 fascist laws which would be very bad. At least in that case the investigate power would be in the hand of a liberal.

Unfortunately the voting pattern suggests to me that Archetype is a fascist. I would have expected a tight vote that might have passed 5-4 or perhaps 6-3 but 7-2 seems an unusual accumulation of votes on one player.

[Kirian]

Since it was apparently unclear, you may (and perhaps should) spend time discussing before Arch makes his choice.

[Tables]

So, yeah, I had a post typed out, and then Kirian came and psuedo locked the thread just before I sent it. Sigh. Well, now I'm not proposal 3 I might as well say what I was holding back.

I actually had a fairly decent read on Arch up until this point as well as ADK, but not enough to trust him and ghost in power. So... I didn't want to say I liked Arch on a team, since uh I'd rather have been on a team myself obviously. Besides, the Arch read was a lot weaker than ADK. Now, there's a very high chance one of Arch or ghost or both is a facist - I might actually just run some numbers on those probabilities later - and that erodes my trust somewhat. Which kinda makes me feel a little more justified on not saying anything, but his mission got voted through anyway.

So, regarding the votes. 7/9 people voted yes to Arch/ghost. That means at least three facists out of four voted it through (2/4 to an outsider's perspective, 3/4 to me). And that means at least three facists preferred this mission to one being lead by me and/or wanted ghost to be the final proposal next time. The only no votes were me (obviously), and Grujah. That makes me feel slightly more confident in Grujah, just based on these numbers, but only very slightly.

For the investigation, I would like someone who can be president next round to be investigated. Preferably the most likely liberal player, because good reads >>> bad reads in this game. Ghost is out of the question for hopefully obvious reasons. I would prefer to get investigated myself; it doesn't get me as much information (although does get me some) but hopefully helps everyone else out a lot. I wouldn't be opposed to ADK being investigated though.

Finally, right now I've been suspicious of faust for a while. There's two main posts which have caused this in the past - #1 is http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14491.msg556730#msg556730 and #2 is http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14491.msg556326#msg556326 (those are my replies to him, his post is quoted there). Looking back, that first one maybe shouldn't have made me as suspicious as it did at the time, since uh his explanation of it was pretty clear that he just worded things badly. The second though I still find really suspicious. Like he was just aiming to throw suspicion onto ADK.

[gkrieg13]

So now this gives us a lot to look over.  I am surprised so many people were against the group I gave but weren't super against this government.  Now I guess I understand.

I was going to vote yes to pretty much any government at this point, because I think this is like the first mission in resistance, where you can gauge a lot of what is going on based on the first mission.

Even if Tables were fascist, he should have voted no, so that is not an alignment tell either way.

A bit late for that, alas.

gkrieg, ADK, Grujah, and Hydrad vote yes.  I'm on mobile so not typing out the nos.

By 5-4, no government is formed.  Archetype is now the Presidential candidate.

Round 2 Voting

A new government is formed with Archetype as President and ghostofmars as Chancellor.

Yes:  Archetype, gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
No:  Tables, Grujah

Archetype, PM incoming with your three cards.

So voted yes both times is: gkrieg13, Hydrad, ADK
no both times: Tables
Yes to mine, no to Arch: Grujah
No to mine, yes to Arch: faust, EgorK, ghostofmars, Archetype

I would say that faust and EgorK along with ghostofmars and Archetype are my strongest fascist reads right now.

[gkrieg13]

Also have a strong liberal read on ADK right now

[ghostofmars]

If 5 Liberal policies are enacted (of 6 in the deck), the Liberals win.

Deck and discard contain (total): 11 Fascist, 7 Liberal

Btw, there is still a mismatch in the number of liberal policies.

Regarding the game: I think we should slow the discussion a bit down until Archetype has claimed which cards he drew. My argument is that a liberal will always tell the truth, but a fascist may want to wait a bit to see how the consensus forms.

[Archetype]

So, I did draw 3 F. Which kinda sucks, but also gives us some good liberal density.

I don't feel too scummy about ghost, but agree that the vote pattern was a little strange and does put some more suspicion on him. On the other hand, it makes me feel better about Tables. If such a large number of people would vote for me, they must be concerned about Tables being President. Grujah's vote seems sort of meh and doesn't really give me a read on him.

I have a fairly good idea for who I'd like to investigate, but welcome input for sure. I won't say who I'll be investigating to gather some more reactions, but can do it early if people would like.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 2

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 1
Next Executive Power: Investigation

Deck: 14 cards
Discard: 2 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 10 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'd like to hear more from EgorK, I didn't realize until just now that he was in this game.

I'm getting a fascist vibe from faust as well.

[Hydrad]

yay we got somewhere!

so the options we have is.

Arch is a fasicst and got rid of a liberal.

Arch and ghost are fasists and could of gotten rid of 2 liberals.

both are town. and got unlucky. (what are the odds of 3 facist things happening?)

ghost is fasicst and arch got unlucky. This seems like a lowish chance. I'm willing to think ghost is still pretty towny.

[Kirian]

Probability of drawing FFF is 11/17 *10/16 * 9/15 = ~24%.  So not that rare.

[Hydrad]

huh 24% is much higher then I expected actually.

makes me feel a bit better about arch.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

[faust]

Now we know that ghost didn't lie, that's great. Would fascist!Arch nominate a fellow fascist? I think not. A government with a liberal on it has a higher chance of being elected and Arch still has all the power. So I guess I'm still decently townie on ghost.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

[faust]

As far as investigations go I think I support Egor or gkrieg. Hydrad and ADk are possible too.

[Hydrad]

I have no idea who to pick. but I like trusting faust usually.

[Tables]

Probability of drawing FFF is 11/17 *10/16 * 9/15 = ~24%.  So not that rare.

Given that an F was played, we know LLL wasn't drawn, and that means the odds become P(FFF)/(1-P(LLL)) which just so happens to work out as exactly 25% - 11*10*9/(17*16*15) / (1 - (6*5*4/(17*16*15))) = 1/4. Scumread on Kirian for posting incomplete maths

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something.

This sounds scummy No, it's not because you're 'doing something' (how vague do you want to be anyway?). It's because you're making a number of posts that seem suspicious, as I've already said. Complaining that people have fascist reads on you and implying those people are being dumb or whatever just comes across as a psuedo-OMGUS. It's certainly not making me trust you any more.

Your post count isn't the issue here. High post count =/= high useful information count. You have a lot of one liner posts. Combined that's probably not much more content you've posted than someone like me, who tends to mostly make longer posts at once.

[faust]

Your post count isn't the issue here. High post count =/= high useful information count. You have a lot of one liner posts. Combined that's probably not much more content you've posted than someone like me, who tends to mostly make longer posts at once.

Well, I agree that I don't have more content than you... but the two of us are basically the main contributors, while people like Hydrad or Egor do nothing at all. I have taken a pretty firm stance early on, I take full responibility for my vote. That is not scummy.

You point out two posts of mine as a basis for your read, one even with a caveat that it isn't acutally scummy, it was just a misunderstanding. The other one is this:

So ADK, huh? I looked back on his posts, and this seems bad:

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

First, it is bad reasoning because Arch was only making a joke. But what's more, if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

You seem to think that it was too little to go on to form a strong opinion. Well yes. I don't have strong opinions because it is too early. But I believe in making my opinions sound stronger than they are because I think that promotes discussion and help move the game forward. Anyone who played mafia with me can confirm this.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you. I understand how this play could be perceived as scummy by people who are new to my playstyle... it happens all the time when I play with new people IRL. But others like ADK and gkrieg, they have played with me, they should know better.

I am really trying hard to redeem myself here in the eyes of the liberals (which I think you are) because having me as some sort of "universal scum read" is just so bad... assuming random government elections, the chances for an all-liberal government are 27.8%. If you take me out of the picture because everyone thinks I'm a fascist, that number drops to 21.4% - it suddenly becomes 23% less likely that we are successful (I assume that number won't be affected much by assuming non-randomness). So it is really vital that this does not happen.

[ghostofmars]

It's obvious we shouldn't include Archetype in any governments in the near future. I'd suggest that we vote on a candidate that Archetype should investigate, so that we avoid that he uses his power to sow confusion. Furthermore it may give us some more hard data from the players that are currently a little bit inactive. I let the other players decide whether you want to count Archetype's and my vote or not.

I'll go ahead and vote ADK for two reasons: he is a potential president in the next round, he approved the president Archetype. Obviously the votes are not binding but it would be very scummy for Archetype to ignore the group's consensus.

[gkrieg13]

I'd want one of the active players investigated, so either faust or Tables.  I also find them the most polarizing, so all the better reason to have them investigated.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

[Hydrad]

I'm ok with being investigated also! As I'm obviously the most active and important person in this game.

[Hydrad]

but ya gkrieg/tables/adk/faust are my top 4 I guess.

[Archetype]

It's obvious we shouldn't include Archetype in any governments in the near future. I'd suggest that we vote on a candidate that Archetype should investigate, so that we avoid that he uses his power to sow confusion. Furthermore it may give us some more hard data from the players that are currently a little bit inactive. I let the other players decide whether you want to count Archetype's and my vote or not.

I'll go ahead and vote ADK for two reasons: he is a potential president in the next round, he approved the president Archetype. Obviously the votes are not binding but it would be very scummy for Archetype to ignore the group's consensus.

That's fair. If I was in your guys' shoes, I'd probably do the same.

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

[Tables]

Well, I agree that I don't have more content than you... but the two of us are basically the main contributors, while people like Hydrad or Egor do nothing at all. I have taken a pretty firm stance early on, I take full responibility for my vote. That is not scummy.

I'm one of the main contributors? You know, you might actually be right. I hadn't really thought of that, I always feel like I'm playing catch up on what everyone else is doing. I guess that's just a symptom of playing a game with 8 other players. So, okay. You're probably right though.

You seem to think that it was too little to go on to form a strong opinion. Well yes. I don't have strong opinions because it is too early.

So, this isn't really what I was suspicious about. It was more this sentence part in particular:

if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

I feel like this grossly misrepresents what Arch was saying. At worst, Arch was saying 'I find him suspicious' but here you're suggesting what he meant was, well, what you said there - that Arch cared absolutely about keeping Arch about above anything else right now. That seems like you're really blowing out of proportion someone's suspicions.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you.

This one sentence in particular surprises me, mainly because of this just a short time ago:

So. I don't trust Tables. I don't feel great about ADK. Egor, ADK, Grujah - I encourage you to support this government.

Could you explain this change?

[faust]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

Vote: ADK

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

[faust]

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

You're also 50% fascist (probably more because you are scummy). If you investigate anyone who's not chosen by the group, I don't think I would ever elect you for the government again.

[faust]

I feel like this grossly misrepresents what ArchADK was saying. At worst, ArchADK was saying 'I find him suspicious' but here you're suggesting what he meant was, well, what you said there - that ArchADK cared absolutely about keeping Arch about above anything else right now. That seems like you're really blowing out of proportion someone's suspicions.

I think this is the right fix for what you wanted to say? Well I guess I thought people would approach the game like I do. If he thinks Arch is suspicious, and he does not have any other suspicions, then for sure the top priority should be to keep Arch out of the government until you have more reads. Arch is scummy, everyone else is null or liberal, then you absolutely should fight any Arch government. That is how I think you should play at least.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you.

This one sentence in particular surprises me, mainly because of this just a short time ago:

So. I don't trust Tables. I don't feel great about ADK. Egor, ADK, Grujah - I encourage you to support this government.

Could you explain this change?

Main thing is the mere fact that obviously the fascists supported the Arch/ghost government, so that means they did not want you as President. I felt badly because of the way you defended ADK mainly, because it seemed a bit baseless, but I start to think now that that reads was genuine, and the other stuff you're posting gives me a good vibe.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

Vote: ADK

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

Why? We can POE this.

[Archetype]

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

You're also 50% fascist (probably more because you are scummy). If you investigate anyone who's not chosen by the group, I don't think I would ever elect you for the government again.

Savage. I'll keep this in mind.

[Grujah]

Man, we do let ghost of mars to a lot of directing just after he passed a fascist law. Yes, he probably didn't have a choice at all, though collaboration isn't impossible.

CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT:
Also, I see now that some "agreed upon" choosing of first (or first few) candidates is a very good thing, as you can't have this "He seemed fine when I chose him" as that give leeway for fascist. If a group has a agreed upon candidate (last one in presidency line) than stepping away from it needs a big reason, and is harder to pull of.
--

It is not completely unreasonable to me to think, that if Arch is a fascist, he chose ghost of mars cuz ghost to signal to Hitler who one of the fascists are.

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

[faust]

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

Huh? Obviously any investigation Arch does will depend on his alignment... well not the investigation itself, but what he tells us about it. I have no idea what you mea by this.

[Tables]

I think this is the right fix for what you wanted to say?

Herp derp, I should not post after midnight apparently.

Well I guess I thought people would approach the game like I do. If he thinks Arch is suspicious, and he does not have any other suspicions, then for sure the top priority should be to keep Arch out of the government until you have more reads. Arch is scummy, everyone else is null or liberal, then you absolutely should fight any Arch government. That is how I think you should play at least.

Hmm... okay, I think I understand. This seems reasonable.

Main thing is the mere fact that obviously the fascists supported the Arch/ghost government, so that means they did not want you as President. I felt badly because of the way you defended ADK mainly, because it seemed a bit baseless, but I start to think now that that reads was genuine, and the other stuff you're posting gives me a good vibe.

Okay, right. This isn't quite what I was expecting you to say here, but I can understand it. This last post of yours has actually made me reconsider my thoughts on you; that doesn't mean I think you're liberal but I'm certainly not highly suspicious any more. I guess it's probably more a contrasting playstyle which makes me find some things you're saying suspect.

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

No, I think this is the other way around. Although, I'm not going to claim certainty that it's definitely better to find liberals. But there's two main advantages to investigating liberals.

1) Our primary objective is not to find and kill the people we distrust but to find and collaborate with the people we do trust. I would be much happier to find two people I was absolutely convinced were Liberal than I would to out two facists.

2) It gives potential to build up a short chain of trust. Say that Arch investigates ADK, and finds he is liberal. Then ADK investigates me, and finds I'm liberal. Now Arch knows I'm liberal, because he knows he can trust ADK. Obviously, this has some issues - firstly we don't know if we can trust what Arch says, but we also don't know for certain that he's a fascist yet. It's certainly quite possible that he's loyal. Secondly unlike in Resistance, there's no guarantee that the next investigation will be in the hands of the first person investigated.

If Arch investigates, and says the person is a fascist, that does give us some information - at worst we know one of Arch/that person is a fascist. But I don't think this is as good as getting a liberal answer on someone.

[Grujah]

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

Huh? Obviously any investigation Arch does will depend on his alignment... well not the investigation itself, but what he tells us about it. I have no idea what you mea by this.

adk being fascist theorem is bulit upon arch being fascist (at least what was written here) - thats the difference.

[Archetype]

I would be totally cool investigating ADK.

[Grujah]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

I have a read on you, tho to make it more clear, could you give a clear cut reason of why change of hart from gkriek's suggestion to Archetypes?

[Grujah]

I also wrote this and got it lost somewhere, so rewriting it:

@Tables - Now that I think about it, "investigation for liberals" is kinda neater if investigator is a fascist suspect. If an F investigates another F, he can semi-clear them. If he investigates a L, he can semi-clear them or start a war exposing one of them and basically guranteeing none of them gets on a goverment. So, it is more in our favor to gun for Ls, i guess, even though L finding an F has is the single best outcome, trying to find Fs might not be the best in average case.

[ghostofmars]

I changed my mind.
vote EgorK

I had hoped that voting on investigation candidates would draw some of the less active candidates to commit a bit more, but as that hasn't really worked out, I would now prefer to get some information about them by investigation.

EgorK is the most likely target here because of his lack of activity and because he switched from opposing gkrieg's government to approving Archetype's one.

[Hydrad]

Hmm I really don't know at this point. The only thing I really have info on right now is that arch is potentially scummy. From reading the discussions about stuff I guess I like Grujah a bit also since he was voting no for arch.

But for me I don't have a strong opinion really either way at all for who to investigate on. It seems like we aren't even really sure if getting a facist or liberal result is better as liberal means you can trust someone and facist means just don't let them get involved.

So I'm fine with pretty much anyone.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

I have a read on you, tho to make it more clear, could you give a clear cut reason of why change of hart from gkriek's suggestion to Archetypes?

Not sure what "change of heart" you mean... gkrieg nominated ADK, I thought ADK was scummy, so I voted against the proposal. Arch nominated ghost, I thought Arch was liberal, so I voted yes.

I guess I said early on that I wanted the first two proposals failed? Well that changed when I felt like Tables was a fascist.

[faust]

Good points about investigating liberals. I may be stuck in a mafia mindset. I's still good to know who one fascist is because that gives you clues about the other fascists. But I guess I'm also fine with investigating a liberal. Egor or Hydrad seem like decent targets.

[EgorK]

Good points about investigating liberals. I may be stuck in a mafia mindset. I's still good to know who one fascist is because that gives you clues about the other fascists. But I guess I'm also fine with investigating a liberal. Egor or Hydrad seem like decent targets.

Problem is investigation is only reliable if done by someone presumed liberal

Anyway, some math as I promised. Let's assume Archetype passed 2F out of 2F1L only if he is fascist and not Hitler. We have following cases here

1. Archetype is fascist that is not Hitler (apriori probability is 1/3):
a. Got 3F. (apriori probability is 165/680)
b. Got 2F1L. (aprioti probability is 330/680)
c. Got 1F2L and ghost is fascist that is not Hitler. (apriori probability is 1/4 * 165/680)

Total is 1/3 * (165 + 330 + 165/4) / 680 = 0.26286...

2. Archetype is liberal or Hitler and got 3F (apriori probability is 2/3 * 165/680 = 0.16176...)

So if before you had null read on both Arch and ghost, now probability of Arch being fascist is 62%, while being liberal or Hitler is 38%. If you had reads you need to update corresponding apriori probabilities

[EgorK]

And yes, this is all assuming Hitler plays liberally as both president and chancellor here

[gkrieg13]

I agree with Hydrad here. If we go with a liberal, at least we know one person we can safely elect as chancellor at the end.

[ghostofmars]

I agree with Hydrad here. If we go with a liberal, at least we know one person we can safely elect as chancellor at the end.

Actually that does not work that way. Assuming Archetype claims he found a liberal, we may use that player before 3 fascist policies have been revealed. But it is possible that he revealed Hitler and changed his alignment. Hence I would rather try to reveal a fascist.

[ghostofmars]

For the record, here are the current votes (votes in [] are like 'I could live with', votes in () are former votes, recently replaced by another vote more recently)
gkrieg faust or Tables
Archetype [ADK]
Tables Tables [ADK]
ADK [ADK or faust]
ghost EgorK (ADK)
Hydrad
Grujah
faust EgorK or Hydrad (ADK / EgorK or gkrieg)
EgorK

Regarding investigating liberal or fascist. My opinion is that aiming for a fascist is better. Consider the following two cases. If Archetype's investigation reveals 'fascist', we know for certain that one of Archetype and his target are fascist. On the other hand, if he claims 'liberal', we more or less have to appoint the selected player president or chancellor to check if the claim is true and even then we might get unlucky and a liberal draws 3F.

[Archetype]

I wouldn't mind investigating EgorK. Investigating someone who isn't very active seems like it would be the most beneficial.

[Hydrad]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

[gkrieg13]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

This

[faust]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

[Archetype]

Same.

Investigate: EgorK

[Kirian]

Archetype determines EgorK's party alignment (by PM).

[Archetype]

He's good

[faust]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

[faust]

I suggest to put Egor in the next government.

[ghostofmars]

Well that makes it a bit more likely that Archetype is fascist but doesn't tell us a lot about EgorK's alignment. He is still the best liberal guess based on the ~15% chance that a Archetype is liberal.

I think nominating EgorK as a chancellor is a good idea. While we may want him as a president two turns from now, we may get some information before. It should be also clear that we must be very careful appointing EgorK as chancellor once 3 fascist laws have passed.

So here is my shadow cabinet: chancellor EgorK. I might change that if both Tables and ADK select EgorK too, so that there is another option.

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

[faust]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

Seems fascist to me.

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

Seems fascist to me.

And at this point it is more important to have a liberal president than to have a liberal chancellor

[faust]

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

[Tables]

Alright, so uh are we into round 2 now? I believe we are moving there, and that will make me next president.

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

So uh not to dig my own grave but bear in mind I was voting no because I knew it'd make me president 3rd, which is a powerful position to be in regardless of my loyalty. I don't think my votes last round really indicate much about my loyalty. There is the point that fascists did vote the mission up, to some degree at least, so maybe that's a minor point shifting probabilities towards me being liberal, but it's probably minor.

That said, I want to know why I'm suspected as well. Helps know what I need to hide better

Anyway, I've just checked the numbers for last round. Basically re-checking EgorK's calculations. I believe that the chances are as follows:

FFF is 1/4
FFL is 1/2
FLL is 1/4
LLL is impossible as F was chosen.

Assuming Hitler is playing liberal (i.e. for now 'liberal' means 'liberal or Hitler'), which I think is almost certainly going to be the case on card 1, the chance of anyone being normal fascist is 1/3 (3/9) and the chance of being liberal is 2/3. For two given people it becomes a 1/12 chance (3/9*2/8 = 1/3*1/4).

Also assuming liberal doesn't lie

There are four cases which give the result we've seen:

1) Arch draws FFF and is liberal, ghost is any alignment (1/4*2/3 = 1/6 = 6/36)
2) Arch draws FFF and is fascist, ghost is any alignment (1/4*1/3 = 1/12 = 3/36)
3) Arch draws FFL and is fascist, ghost is any alignment (1/2*1/3 = 1/6 = 6/36)
4) Arch draws FLL and is fascist, ghost is fascist (1/4*1/12 = 1/36)

These probabilities don't add up to 100% because the remaining probabilities are those of an L being played instead. In total that means the probability of getting an F played here was 16/36, so given an F was played what we actually get as our odds are:

1) Arch draws FFF and is liberal, ghost is any alignment - 6/16
2) Arch draws FFF and is fascist, ghost is any alignment - 3/16
3) Arch draws FFL and is fascist, ghost is any alignment - 6/16
4) Arch draws FLL and is fascist, ghost is fascist - 1/16

Or to put that another way, purely based on the fact this mission failed and the information revealed afterwards there's a 3/8 or a 37.5% chance that Arch is liberal, and a 62.5% or 5/8 chance that he's fascist. And of that 3/8 chance he's loyal there's a 1/6 chance he's Hitler meaning it's actually more like 5/16 or a 31.25% chance he's loyal and a 68.75% chance he's some kind of fascist.

TL;DR: Mathematically speaking you should suspect Arch, but there's still a very good chance he's loyal based on the numbers, so suspect but don't write him off.

[ghostofmars]

TL;DR: Mathematically speaking you should suspect Arch, but there's still a very good chance he's loyal based on the numbers, so suspect but don't write him off.

If the vote for Archetype's government had been close, I would agree. However, if Archetype is liberal then all remaining liberals and two fascists voted for the government. That seems highly unlikely to me. From your perspective that should be even worse (assuming you claim liberal ), three fascists decided to elect a liberal president.

Actually now that I think about it, perhaps it would have been good to investigate Grujah or you. If Archetype had found you are liberal it makes himself more scummy. Anyway, something to keep in mind for the next investigation.

[gkrieg13]

Now I trust Tables a little bit more. 

I don't think you should make conclusions based on math in a game where some people know everyone's alignment.

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Like Tables, I don't think his voting patterns were very liberal.  But I'm also biased because I know I am liberal, and he voted no against me.  I'm surprised my government got so many nos

[Hydrad]

yay we got somewhere!

and ya i'm ok with Egork getting chancellor or whatever.

[faust]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

[faust]

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

So uh not to dig my own grave but bear in mind I was voting no because I knew it'd make me president 3rd, which is a powerful position to be in regardless of my loyalty. I don't think my votes last round really indicate much about my loyalty. There is the point that fascists did vote the mission up, to some degree at least, so maybe that's a minor point shifting probabilities towards me being liberal, but it's probably minor.

I realize I was unclear; I did not mean your votes are what makes you liberal, but the fact that so man people wanted to avoid you being elected President.

[faust]

So ghost cannot become Chancellor toda, but will he be a Presidential candidate? I think so.

In this case the options are Tables, ADK, ghost. Of these my priorities are Tables > ghost > ADK. Which luckily makes it rather easy to vote.

[faust]

gkrieg is totes fascist by the way.

[Archetype]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

Would you be more "surprised" if I lied and said fascist?

[gkrieg13]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

I haven't been nearly as lurky as other people.  Why single me out?

[faust]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

I haven't been nearly as lurky as other people.  Why single me out?

Because the other don't try to discourage activity like you do.

[faust]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

Would you be more "surprised" if I lied and said fascist?

Well, yes.

[EgorK]

Actually both I and tables did similar mistake in assumptions, namely we calculated from the viewpoint of spectator. Liberal or hitler apriori should be 5/8, fascist - 3/8. Which makes Arch little more scummy. I'll update all calculations when I'll be at computer

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 3

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 1
Next Executive Power: Investigation (#2)
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 14 cards
Discard: 2 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 10 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

Tables is now the Presidential candidate.

[faust]

Actually both I and tables did similar mistake in assumptions, namely we calculated from the viewpoint of spectator. Liberal or hitler apriori should be 5/8, fascist - 3/8. Which makes Arch little more scummy. I'll update all calculations when I'll be at computer

For a fascist, the probability is either exact 1 or exactly 0...

[faust]

And don't bother with all the numbers... we get it; Arch is scummy. Whether he is 62% scum or 67% scum doesn't really matter.

[Tables]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3. But yes, I calculated from the viewpoint of an outsider, it doesn't change the numbers too much except making Arch more scummy, as EgorK says.

Don't have time right now to reply to much, but I do agree that discouraging activity is scummy. Liberals want as much activity as possible (that's actually relevant). And the more you post, the more likely you are to slip up and say something bad which is another reason activity is good - we want the fascists to slip up and say something bad, while liberals are less able to uh 'scumslip' for hopefully obvious reasons.

[faust]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

[gkrieg13]

I wasn't discouraging activity. I was just saying that I bet one of the super active players are fascist. Faust likes to control the game either way, so his activity isn't a scum tell. That's why I was suspecting tables.

[Kirian]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

Forum Games are far more skippable than you think.

[Tables]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

Forum Games are far more skippable than you think.

Vote: Faust
Vote: Kirian

I wasn't discouraging activity. I was just saying that I bet one of the super active players are fascist. Faust likes to control the game either way, so his activity isn't a scum tell. That's why I was suspecting tables.

Correct me if I'm wrong and accidentally setting up a strawman, but is this what you're stating?

At least one highly active player (Faust or me) is likely fascist
Faust normally plays like this.
Therefore I am likely fascist.

There's a number of errors in your reasoning here. The first point is technically valid, but that's just because out of any two randomly picked people there's likely to be a fascist - the odds of any two randomly picked people being liberal is 5/9*4/8 = 5/18 (about 28%), and that drops to 4/8*3/7 = 3/14 (about 21%) if you work on the knowledge that you are yourself liberal, which of course everyone will claim they are. There's nothing particularly special about Faust and I being the most active players other than we happen to be the most active players.

The second point and third point is... well I presume it's true, everyone seems to be saying it and it'd be a crazy thing to lie about. But in that case it's a non-tell, not a liberal tell. And that means even if you stuck with your first point, it doesn't tell you anything directly about Faust.

Anyway, let's move on to my nominations. I can't pick ghost, since he was recently chancellor. I'm warming up somewhat to Faust being liberal, I feel like he defended himself sincerely and honestly and looking back at his older posts I'm not really getting a scummy vibe any more, I feel like I sorta just overjumped on miscommunications. ADK I still have a decent read on, but he's also next in line, and so he'd be a very risky pick. EgorK has been given a liberal read by Arch, which does mean something. It's... tempting to pick Egor based on it, and see what happen, but it has a decent chance of backfiring. Who else? Despite the above, I'm actually not really suspicious of Gkrieg. Bad logic is not a scumtell, it's just an I-screwed-up-tell. But he's also willing to change his opinions fairly quickly based on information coming in, and that tends to be a good sign to me (after all liberals are trying to work everything out from scratch, so it makes sense for them to reconsider everything. Fascist know everything anyway, so are just trying to blend in and get other people looking scummy, which tends to not have quite as much suspicion switching).

So... right now I'm considering out of those three: EgorK, Faust, Gkrieg.

[faust]

So... right now I'm considering out of those three: EgorK, Faust, Gkrieg.

Well, the good thing about Egor is even if he is a fascist, it would be very risky for him to enact a fascist policy, because he would take Archetype down with him. I am of course also not opposed to getting the seat myself.

[gkrieg13]

I'm really just trying to figure things out, which is hard to do with so little information.  I think my statement that faust was scummy came partially from feeling attacked for no reason.  I haven't been in a government, and my voting has been very liberal.  I also haven't been able to figure out why my government didn't pass.  I have played a few IRL games of this and the first government almost always passes because no one has enough information to be against it.  Unlike resistance, there will only ever be 2 people in a government, which means we really just need to find people that we really trust, which we can't do without the information from voting and policy passing.

[Tables]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

[gkrieg13]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

I agree, but more information is gathered when you see what cards should be left in the deck, and what people say is left in the deck right before the shuffle.  You can often tell which president was lying about drawing 3F just based off what the last president draws.

[gkrieg13]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

I agree, but more information is gathered when you see what cards should be left in the deck, and what people say is left in the deck right before the shuffle.  You can often tell which president was lying about drawing 3F just based off what the last president draws.

Of course it won't always be perfect information, because we don't get to see the results.  I don't think voting blindly is really all that bad.  If you aren't voting blindly yes, then there isn't really much voting pattern to look at, because you know some liberals are making decisions like they know something, and that fascists are making decisions because they do know something, which are hard to distinguish from each other.

[ghostofmars]

I haven't been in a government, and my voting has been very liberal.  I also haven't been able to figure out why my government didn't pass.  I have played a few IRL games of this and the first government almost always passes because no one has enough information to be against it.

I wouldn't agree with your claim that you voted very liberal. You approved a government that you were not part of that enacted a fascist law. The only person that can easily claim that they voted liberal is Grujah.

However, the voting pattern (from other players against your government) makes it less likely that you are fascist.

Regarding whether one should always pass/reject the first government. It depends a bit on the group meta. The advantage of choosing always the first (or always the last) is that the fascists cannot push one of theirs as president. It is just random. The disadvantage is that you do not learn anything from the voting pattern.

For me there was a simple reason not to vote for your government, which is similar to Tables' reason to vote against Archetype. When your government would be rejected, I would be a potential president in round 2 instead of round 3.

Finally, ADK as you are a potential president this turn, would you mind suggesting your shadow cabinet?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

[faust]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

[Hydrad]

hmm So when do we start voting again?

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Hurrah!

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Good point though.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Hydrad seems liberal to me. Although I might nominate you if I thought that had a better chance of going through.

[faust]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Hydrad seems liberal to me. Although I might nominate you if I thought that had a better chance of going through.

... to repeat my question: Why not Egor?

[Kirian]

hmm So when do we start voting again?

You can PM a CO vote anytime you want, if you (for instance) have already decided to back, or oppose, Tables no matter his Chancellor pick.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Hydrad seems liberal to me. Although I might nominate you if I thought that had a better chance of going through.

... to repeat my question: Why not Egor?

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

[Tables]

Right now my intuition is saying egorK. I'll leave it a short time (maybe 12-24 hours, depending on when I get bored) to see if anyone has anything extra to say that might influence that choice, but I haven't really seen any major objections to any of the options I presented earlier.

[faust]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

[Tables]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

Well, claimed to be liberal, more precisely. The claim is on fairly shaky ground though, since there's a decent chance Arch is a fascist, and he was the one investigating.

[gkrieg13]

I would support a Tables EgoK government

[Grujah]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

Well, claimed to be liberal, more precisely. The claim is on fairly shaky ground though, since there's a decent chance Arch is a fascist, and he was the one investigating.

Yes, but if they are both fascist, he has to be careful as if he is outed as fascist so is arch and that's a big part of their team.

Unless he is hitler, of course.

[Tables]

Yes, I agree (it's the reason I'm suggesting picking EgorK as my Chancellor).

I'm heading to bed soon, if nothing major has come up I'll propose the team in the morning tomorrow (morning my time, which will likely be around 9-11am GMT).

[A Drowned Kernel]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

Right, that. I would not nominate egor. I don't trust arch.

[faust]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

Right, that. I would not nominate egor. I don't trust arch.

Whether or not you trust him does not play much of a role. Please follow the game and read what other people write.

[Archetype]

EgorK should definitely be included in the next government. Looking at who is coming up, having Tables as the President would be my preference.

[Tables]

Nominate: EgorK

[Grujah]

Why egor? Maybe I missed something but he just seems completely absent.

Maybe you missed everything...? Egor was investigated and found to be liberal.

Right, that. I would not nominate egor. I don't trust arch.

I dont trust Arch either, still, I do think Egor is a good candidate.

[ghostofmars]

I've sent my vote. I also sent a CO based on ADK's shadow cabinet.

I will probably have limited Internet access the next few days so I might not be able to reply to this thread.

[Kirian]

Waiting on Arch's vote.  He is LA right now.

Yes, I know I could make assumptions based on the thread, but I don't like those sorts of assumptions.

[Archetype]

Sent! I apologize for the delay.

[Kirian]

ADK and ghost voted No.  A new government is formed with Tables as President and EgorK as Chancellor.

I'm on mobile and will send cards in a little while.  Feel free to CO if desired.

[Kirian]

Tables draws three cards and discards one by CO, then passes two to EgorK.

EgorK discards one and reveals a second Fascist policy.

Tables now chooses a player to Investigate.

(And discussion is open again.)

[A Drowned Kernel]

So?

[EgorK]

I've got FF obviously

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm more interested in what Tables has to say.

[Archetype]

So, Tables is probably scum. No way we get 2 FFFs in a row.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm skeptical that we got one FFF at all.

[Hydrad]

ok so now is it more likely that arch is scum or tables. I feel like the odds of both being town is way to low.

or both. could be both. ah but w/e

Oh I guess it could also be Egork facist with arch? who chose F?

Hmmm that would be dangerous thought.

gah everyones looking scummy now.

[faust]

Well, we have to wait for Tables before we draw any sort of conclusion.

[Tables]

Sigh.

I drew FFL, and passed of course FL. Egor playing F surprises me a LOT, since that outs both Egor and Arch as scum to me. Of course, it also makes me look super scummy, since I guess people will be less inclined to believe the person saying two other people are scum than the two saying one other is scum. So... ugh. I need to fully think what this means through.

[A Drowned Kernel]

That's not the unexpected response.

If (big if) Tables is telling the truth, then I think it means that it's fairly likely that Egor is Hitler, and Arch investigating him was a way of tipping him off as to who one of his allies is.

[faust]

Well, this is better than Tables confirming FFF I think. At least now we know that either Tables or (Egor, Arch) are scum.

Which leads us to the question, who should be investigated? Obviously having Tables investigate Arch or Egor makes no sense. We should look at upcoming candidates. That is ADK, ghost, Hydrad.

Would be cool if Tables can out another fascist, assuming he's liberal. My investigation preferences are Hydrad>ADK>ghost I think.

[faust]

That's not the unexpected response.

If (big if) Tables is telling the truth, then I think it means that it's fairly likely that Egor is Hitler, and Arch investigating him was a way of tipping him off as to who one of his allies is.

That seems uh strange. It's not like Arch chose the investigation target on his own, he followed the popular opinion (which still can be influenced by the fascists, but it's not as simple as you make it out to be).

[Grujah]

But would Hitler expose himself to such big risks? I dont think so.

[Tables]

Okay so some possible scenarios from my perspective.

1) Arch is Hitler, randomly investigates a fascist. He doesn't want to out a fascist for no reason, so he claims liberal, of course. Egor's play in this situation seems super risky though, he doesn't want Hitler involved in a counterclaim, surely? So I think this one is unlikely.

2) Arch is a fascist, investigates Hitler, declares him Liberal. This makes sense as a fascist play, especially since people were suggesting the investigation to begin with. But then Egor playing a fascist here seems crazy. This seems unlikely as well.

3) Both are regular fascist. This sounds most plausible to me. Egor makes a bold play, with the intent of making one of the more active players look scummy and hopefully making him and his buddy look better. It's risky, but has a good chance to pay off.

So... okay. I don't think Arch or Egor is Hitler, probably. Unless we're going one level deeper of crazy play, at least. That means there's still one more regular fascist out there, and Hitler.

Who voted this proposal up and who said no, that's what I think I'll look at next. Although it'll be over an hour before I can post again since I'm heading out very soon (this is basically a self reminder note, in case you're wondering).

PPE 3 - I haven't thought about investigation target yet. I'll think about that later. I agree this is potentially a good result though, getting scum in counterclaims is powerful, although it's a bit frustrating to be involved in it myself (I've always preferred deducing information rather than arguing my own corner).

PPE 1 - I want to get off Mr. PPE's wild ride

[Grujah]

Everybody voted yes except two people that were upcoming presidents, so, not much to go on there.

[Tables]

Yes, indeed. And sadly that doesn't especially help anyone - everyone knows there was a fascist on this mission at this point, so the fact that (likely) most or all of the fascists voted it up doesn't tell us anything new.

Request: Can votes for each mission (and end results) be placed in one of the first two posts? It makes it a lot easier to track information than trawling through the pages.

Anyway turns out I lied about going out, got the day wrong (inb4lynchallliars), but ehh nothing too interesting votes wise as I just said. What else was there? Investigation target. Right. I have a few thoughts for that at least.

1) Faust. I would really like to know his loyalty, since he's one of the most active players. He won't be President in the upcoming round though.

2) ADK. My read on him is still moderately good, so it'd be good to confirm that. Although... maybe I should be investigating to try and hit Hitler given I know two likely normal fascists? I dunno, would that mean investigating players who I thought were playing liberally anyway I guess? Either way ADK is reasonably active, has next proposal and seems reasonably good.

3) Hydrad. Ehh, he's in the next set of proposals as faust said, but other than that I don't have much to say about him. He hasn't really stood out in either direction to me yet. But being a potential president soon makes him worthwhile at least a little.

I can't think of anyone right off the top of my head else that I especially want to investigate. Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

[Grujah]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

[faust]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

I think the reasoning is that arch picked him as Chancellor, and fascist!Arch would be more likely to choose a liberal Chancellor.

[gkrieg13]

So at this point we have to choose between Tables being fascist or EgorK and Arch being fascist, or Tables and Arch being fascist?  I don't see the second one being true, which means that Tables is fascist.  I just don't see Arch investigating EgorK and calling him liberal if they were both fascist.  Arch could be fascist, investigated a liberal, and Tables gave Egor FF to frame him.  I just don't see EgorK  discarding the Liberal policy when he was just investigated and found liberal.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 3

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 2
Next Executive Power: Investigation (#2)
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 11 cards
Discard: 4 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 9 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

Request: Can votes for each mission (and end results) be placed in one of the first two posts? It makes it a lot easier to track information than trawling through the pages.

I think I can do that.  I think it's better to have the game state interspersed though (as in our TTA games), but I'm open to suggestions.

[EgorK]

Well, I know Tables is fascist so I'd prefer him targeting on his own so he would not hide behind town opinion and will give at least WIFOM data with his target and result

[Hydrad]

ohhho fun again!

ok so lets see. I think I pretty much agree with gkriegs analysis. Lets see...

Basically I agree that even if egork or arch is facist I doubt either of them are hitler. That just spells danger.

Tables could be Hitler?

but ok Tables and Egork are opposite alignments.

So that Leaves us with Tables/Arch. Just Tables. or Arch/Egork. I think those are the only plausible options for facists here?

But I guess one nice thing about this game Is we don't have to find the exact one or anything. We can just not let all 3 of them in any governments and its easy?

The biggest issue for leaving all 3 of them out is if its just tables being Fascist because then we have even worse odds for teams being fascist... Hmm maybe this isn't as easy as I thought.

[Tables]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

He was Arch's chancellor. So it's very likely he's liberal.

You and Gkrieg... I'm okay with either of those. I don't especially have any read on you yet, and have a slight liberal read on Gkrieg, but would really appreciate him not using faulty logic in almost every post. Like...

I don't see the second one being true, which means that Tables is fascist.  ...  I just don't see EgorK  discarding the Liberal policy when he was just investigated and found liberal.

I didn't think either of those things were likely either, but it happened. Or, well, look at the other side of this. If I were fascist, I could just as easily have claimed to draw FFF, hence passing FF. Or heck, I could have passed FL anyway to gain myself some trust. Both of those situations would have drawn a lot less suspicion onto myself, right? Instead I've ended up in a position which makes me looks basically as suspicious as possible. If I were fascist, would I really make such a dangerous play? I think you have to agree that's just as unlikely as the situations you've listed above.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

He was Arch's chancellor. So it's very likely he's liberal.

You and Gkrieg... I'm okay with either of those. I don't especially have any read on you yet, and have a slight liberal read on Gkrieg, but would really appreciate him not using faulty logic in almost every post. Like...

I don't see the second one being true, which means that Tables is fascist.  ...  I just don't see EgorK  discarding the Liberal policy when he was just investigated and found liberal.

I didn't think either of those things were likely either, but it happened. Or, well, look at the other side of this. If I were fascist, I could just as easily have claimed to draw FFF, hence passing FF. Or heck, I could have passed FL anyway to gain myself some trust. Both of those situations would have drawn a lot less suspicion onto myself, right? Instead I've ended up in a position which makes me looks basically as suspicious as possible. If I were fascist, would I really make such a dangerous play? I think you have to agree that's just as unlikely as the situations you've listed above.

I think that even if you're fascist you would never claimed to have drawn FFF. If both you and Egor are fascists, the only sensible move for you is to throw your partner under the bus. I'm not saying that's what happened, but your claim is not inconsistent with the idea that you're fascist.

[Archetype]

So at least we've got one Fascist eliminated. I find it funny how so many of you seem to believe Tables over me/EgorK...that would mean we're both scum and is much more unlikely than just Faust being scum. Like someone else pointed out, I didn't direct who I would investigate - I let the rest of the Town decide.

I'm most suspicious of Faust here from this whole deal. When I initially claimed FFF, he knew how unlikely it was and immediately jumped on me. When Tables claims, he seems to accept it. Also, rather than reacting at all to the result of the F, all Faust says is:

Well, we have to wait for Tables before we draw any sort of conclusion.

...which reads to me like he was going to see how Tables would lie in this situation.

[ghostofmars]

So my fascist read is
Tables > Archetype > EgorK

Because it is now likely that Tables is fascist, it is a bit more likely that Archetype is liberal. So the worst case scenario for us is Archetype and EgorK liberal. Then by removing all three of them, we reduce the liberal-fascist ratio to 3-3. On the other hand, if Tables is liberal the situation is not so dire.

I like the idea of investigating off-wagon. If Tables is liberal, it is very likely that at least one fascist didn't vote for him. So either me or ADK should be fascist.

[Tables]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

He was Arch's chancellor. So it's very likely he's liberal.

You and Gkrieg... I'm okay with either of those. I don't especially have any read on you yet, and have a slight liberal read on Gkrieg, but would really appreciate him not using faulty logic in almost every post. Like...

I don't see the second one being true, which means that Tables is fascist.  ...  I just don't see EgorK  discarding the Liberal policy when he was just investigated and found liberal.

I didn't think either of those things were likely either, but it happened. Or, well, look at the other side of this. If I were fascist, I could just as easily have claimed to draw FFF, hence passing FF. Or heck, I could have passed FL anyway to gain myself some trust. Both of those situations would have drawn a lot less suspicion onto myself, right? Instead I've ended up in a position which makes me looks basically as suspicious as possible. If I were fascist, would I really make such a dangerous play? I think you have to agree that's just as unlikely as the situations you've listed above.

I think that even if you're fascist you would never claimed to have drawn FFF. If both you and Egor are fascists, the only sensible move for you is to throw your partner under the bus. I'm not saying that's what happened, but your claim is not inconsistent with the idea that you're fascist.

No, I'm not saying it's inconsistent, just, why would I go with the most outlandish option when there were much better claims possible? Also, if both Egor and I were fascist, I think playing Liberal if possible would have been the best option here. Gets two people some trust points. Still, it's kinda a WIFOM situation I guess. I'm saying this move would be brazen but you could say that's exactly why I'd do it, or whatever. So eh. Either way, overall, I think it's not too awful of a situation right now, as others have pointed out. I don't like becoming an object of suspicion, but it does open up an awful lot of information to everyone else, and that's ultimately a good thing for team liberal.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm okay with you investigating whoever you want. I also think it's better to leave the matter in your hands and give you some accountability on your choice.

[faust]

So at least we've got one Fascist eliminated. I find it funny how so many of you seem to believe Tables over me/EgorK...that would mean we're both scum and is much more unlikely than just Faust being scum. Like someone else pointed out, I didn't direct who I would investigate - I let the rest of the Town decide.

I'm most suspicious of Faust here from this whole deal. When I initially claimed FFF, he knew how unlikely it was and immediately jumped on me. When Tables claims, he seems to accept it. Also, rather than reacting at all to the result of the F, all Faust says is:

Well, we have to wait for Tables before we draw any sort of conclusion.

...which reads to me like he was going to see how Tables would lie in this situation.

Right, you're most suspicious of me, rather than say the guy you should now know is a fascist...

But that aside, your argument is pretty ridiculous. "It is less likely that me/Egor are both scum than it is that Tables is scum"... seriously? That may have been true when the game started and we didn't know anything, but right now this kind of statement is bullshit.

I don't know where you read that I "accept" anything. But yes, Tables seems more liberal than you. For starters, the way you got elected is more suspicious. Secondly, Tables reads genuine, and you don't.

And that last point, nonsense. I did not say anything because I did not want to give Tables any hint as to which claim is better for him. If I was a fascist and Tables my partner, I would have tried to give him that information.

[Grujah]

Ghost seems like a bad choice, given I know Arch's loyalty, and nobody else really jumps out at me.

Care to explain? Was he heavy anti-Arch or what?
Also that doesn't make him not hitler.

What about me or gkrieg?

He was Arch's chancellor. So it's very likely he's liberal.

You and Gkrieg... I'm okay with either of those. I don't especially have any read on you yet, and have a slight liberal read on Gkrieg, but would really appreciate him not using faulty logic in almost every post. Like...

I don't see the second one being true, which means that Tables is fascist.  ...  I just don't see EgorK  discarding the Liberal policy when he was just investigated and found liberal.

I didn't think either of those things were likely either, but it happened. Or, well, look at the other side of this. If I were fascist, I could just as easily have claimed to draw FFF, hence passing FF. Or heck, I could have passed FL anyway to gain myself some trust. Both of those situations would have drawn a lot less suspicion onto myself, right? Instead I've ended up in a position which makes me looks basically as suspicious as possible. If I were fascist, would I really make such a dangerous play? I think you have to agree that's just as unlikely as the situations you've listed above.

I think that even if you're fascist you would never claimed to have drawn FFF. If both you and Egor are fascists, the only sensible move for you is to throw your partner under the bus. I'm not saying that's what happened, but your claim is not inconsistent with the idea that you're fascist.

You claim FFF, we are not certain as we aren't certain with Arch/ghost either. It would be a good move.

I am with faust that Arch/Egor isn't much more unlikely than Tables. Both "theories" has some holes, but none is way more outlandish that other.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry guys I'll get more into this tomorrow

[Tables]

I haven't seen much objection to it, so am going to investigate Faust soon unless someone strongly objects.

[ghostofmars]

I haven't seen much objection to it, so am going to investigate Faust soon unless someone strongly objects.

If you are liberal, you should try to catch one of the remaining fascists. So if you want to investigate him, I would like to know what makes you think he is fascist.

[Tables]

I haven't seen much objection to it, so am going to investigate Faust soon unless someone strongly objects.

If you are liberal, you should try to catch one of the remaining fascists. So if you want to investigate him, I would like to know what makes you think he is fascist.

The more I think about it, the more I actually realise that you're probably right. The odds are pretty low, however, that I do find a fascist, but throwing an extra counterclaim of X being fascist into the mix would certainly be great for everyone else, and it'd mean I know 3/4 of the fascists. Knowing a definite Liberal is also really good though, so I dunno, it's not the end of the world.

So... yeah, I think you're right. I really want to know faust's loyalty because he's one of the most active players, and that's useful alone, but gunning for the most likely suspect is probably more useful. Sadly right now I don't really have any other top suspects beyond the obvious two, so, I dunno. I'll have to think about it a little more.

[gkrieg13]

I haven't seen much objection to it, so am going to investigate Faust soon unless someone strongly objects.

If you are liberal, you should try to catch one of the remaining fascists. So if you want to investigate him, I would like to know what makes you think he is fascist.

I agree with this sentiment

[gkrieg13]

Rounds, Votes, Policies

Round 1:
Presidential Candidate:  gkrieg13
Chancellor Candidate: A Drowned Kernel
Ja: gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, Hydrad, Grujah
Nein: Archetype, Tables, ghostofmars, faust, EgorK
Result:  No government formed

Round 2:
Presidential Candidate:  Archetype
Chancellor Candidate:  ghostofmars
Ja: gkrieg13, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
Nein: Tables, Grujah
Result:  Fascist policy enacted; Archetype investigated EgorK

Round 3:
Presidential Candidate:  Tables
Chancellor Candidate: EgorK
Ja: gkrieg13, Archetype, Hydrad, faust, EgorK, Tables, Grujah
Nein: A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars
Result:  Fascist policy enacted

This looks great by the way!

Looking at this, I was hoping I could figure something out.  Unfortunately, everyone who is under investigation (Tables, EgorK, Arch) all voted against me in the first round and everyone voted ja on the two fascist policies except the next two potential presidential candidates except that ADK voted the 2nd policy through and grujah voted nein.  So if a policy goes through except for the next presidential candidates, does that mean a fascist is on it?  Clearly the 3rd round had a fascist on it, but for the second round, do we think there was a fascist in the government just based off of the voting pattern?  I think this makes my greatest liberal read on ghostofmars, with a pretty liberal read on ADK, because they both were against the mission with a fascist on it.

[Tables]

ADK voting no doesn't necessarily indicate that he's liberal, since he was in line to become president that round anyway. However the yes and no votes to M1 become interesting, I think that does make it more likely that ADK is liberal. Hmm... just based on votes so far I would say:

gkrieg13 - Voting pattern looks ehh, however both fascists I know voted the mission down, so... slightly liberal.

A Drowned Kernel - on ghosts proposal one, which many fascists voted down. Voted down R2.1, but was in line for presidency. Slightly liberal.

ghostofmars - Was picked by a fascist for a mission proposal, which I think makes him unlikely to be a fascist himself. Liberal.

Hydrad - Voted up M1.1, but also voted up both fascist missions. Sightly fascist.

Grujah - Voted down M1.2 and voted up M1.1. Liberal.

faust - Uh, so faust actually voted down M1.1 and then voted up both other missions, which were both fascist. That's... interesting. I know he's given reasons for these votes before, but just based on the votes, fascist.

When I add in reads based on posts and whatnot, faust drops down a fair bit, and that I feel leaves Hydrad as my top scumread? I don't feel like his posts have convinced me of anything yet. Faust could still be scum, mind, so probably one of those two would be my best investigation target.

[faust]

I think it is foolish to ignore who other potential candidates were when evaluating voting patterns. Like, ADK and ghost voted against Tables/Egor, not because they have splendid reads, but because they wanted to be in the government themselves, and if they are fascist, it would have been very suspicious to support a another government over yours.

So Grujah is the only one who should get liberal points based on rounds 2 and 3. Round 1 is a tossup because we don't know alignments. However we have Egor, Arch, Tables as "no", so that's at least one fascist right there. (And at least one non-Hitler fascist, because I don't see Tables as Hitler here).

Eh. The other no vote aside from me is ghost. That makes me suspicious of him. I need to check back on his reasoning. Checking... okay, he wanted to be president earlier I guess. Makes sense, but is also convenient. There's the argument that fascist!Arch would not nominate fascist!ghost, but really, WIFOM. Hydrad seems suspicious although he upvoted the first mission.

So my top candidates are ghost and Hydrad. One of these should be investigated I think.

[faust]

Every single one of ghost's votes was not influenced by reads, but only by what gives him the best shot at being part of the government. That's bad.

[Grujah]

So my top candidates are ghost and Hydrad. One of these should be investigated I think.

I though we are not directing the pick?

[Tables]

Every single one of ghost's votes was not influenced by reads, but only by what gives him the best shot at being part of the government. That's bad.

I dunno about that. Very early in the game about all you know is that you're liberal, so the only thing you can really trust is getting yourself on the mission, with somone you don't feel is overly scummy. It's no more of a fascist play than it is a liberal play. Heck I'd say it's arguably more liberal, since fascists have three/four people they'd be happy with being on the mission, while liberals have one.

Right now I'm leaning slightly more towards faust. I think that Hydrad is a little bit more likely to be a fascist, but knowing faust's loyalty seems far more valuable, and I think the small drop in chance of actually catching a fascist is worth the insurance of a loyal result being still decent.

[faust]

So my top candidates are ghost and Hydrad. One of these should be investigated I think.

I though we are not directing the pick?

Well, that's certainly an interesting thought.

[faust]

Right now I'm leaning slightly more towards faust. I think that Hydrad is a little bit more likely to be a fascist, but knowing faust's loyalty seems far more valuable, and I think the small drop in chance of actually catching a fascist is worth the insurance of a loyal result being still decent.

Look I can understand you wanting to have hard evidence but if you investigate me, that will not help anyone but yourself, because obviously people cannot trust you. It would really be a lot better if you investigated a fascist.

[Tables]

Right now I'm leaning slightly more towards faust. I think that Hydrad is a little bit more likely to be a fascist, but knowing faust's loyalty seems far more valuable, and I think the small drop in chance of actually catching a fascist is worth the insurance of a loyal result being still decent.

Look I can understand you wanting to have hard evidence but if you investigate me, that will not help anyone but yourself, because obviously people cannot trust you. It would really be a lot better if you investigated a fascist.

That's what I'm trying to do. I already mentioned a few posts back that your voting history is actually rather alarming - voting up the two failed missions, and voting down the only currently unknown one. But really, there's a pretty low chance of me actually hitting a fascist right now - there's only 2 left in 6 people, and one of them is likely Hitler. And I disagree that it won't help anyone else. No matter what, it's still a new data point, and if you are a fascist then hey, that's even better.

[Grujah]

Jeez, I made a post last night, looks like it didn't go through.

Look I can understand you wanting to have hard evidence but if you investigate me, that will not help anyone but yourself, because obviously people cannot trust you. It would really be a lot better if you investigated a fascist.

You say things like this and it makes me want him investigate you more.


Also, I am starting to see things in gkrieg's way the more I think about it,  Arch/egor have heavier fascist reads, but Tables makes more sense.


Outlandish theory:
Tables is Hitler, draws FFL, sends FL to Egor. Egor wants to signal Tables, picks F. Tables decides to bus Egor.  Pretty risky however, as we might shot Tables too, so not very likely.

[Grujah]

It is also more dangerous if Tables is Fascist, as he is way more influential than Arch/Egor.

[faust]

Look I can understand you wanting to have hard evidence but if you investigate me, that will not help anyone but yourself, because obviously people cannot trust you. It would really be a lot better if you investigated a fascist.

You say things like this and it makes me want him investigate you more.

Yes? Uh why? Am I not making sense? Do you think I would say that if I was a fascist? Well, maybe I would, but if so, then certainly to appear like a liberal and not to get Tables to not investigate me...

[faust]

Also, I am starting to see things in gkrieg's way the more I think about it,  Arch/egor have heavier fascist reads, but Tables makes more sense.

And could you back this up? It's not much use to throw statements like that around without some reasoning behind them.

[Tables]

I think it's time to take this shot.

Investigate faust

[Kirian]

Tables investigates faust by PM

This ends round 3. A Drowned Kernel is now the Presidential candidate.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 4

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 2
Next Executive Power: Special Election
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 11 cards
Discard: 4 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 9 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[faust]

Oh well. I had hoped for more information, but it's not the worst thing ever.

Let's play through the scum!Tables scenario... he wants to investigate a non-fascist because he doesn't want to lie because that would rob him of even more credibility? I suppose that course of action makes sense.

I do wonder, will people trust me in the government if Tables clears me?

[gkrieg13]

Oh well. I had hoped for more information, but it's not the worst thing ever.

Let's play through the scum!Tables scenario... he wants to investigate a non-fascist because he doesn't want to lie because that would rob him of even more credibility? I suppose that course of action makes sense.

I do wonder, will people trust me in the government if Tables clears me?

I guess I would.  I would do it begrudgingly. 

[faust]

Of the possible presidents ADK/ghost/Hydrad, I actually like ADK best now. Which is sort of meh because it postpones me getting a shot at forming a government myself.

[Tables]

Eh. Liberal. Which is fine, I guess, not the result I was hoping for but I knew the odds weren't great.

[Grujah]

I am gone skiing so will have limited access in next 5 days.

[Hydrad]

ok well lets just get a liberal thing finally...

also if hitler is the chancellor and picks the 3rd thing he doesn't win right? the 3rd facist has to already be picked and then hes chancellor?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Right now I'd like to pick Hydrad or Faust. Which of those do people prefer?

[Tables]

Faust obviously has my vote, although I'd like to hear what ghost has to say. I think ADK/faust is probably the team I trust most at the moment (tied of course with ADK/me), but anyone who puts me on as chancellor any time that faust hasn't just been chancellor is blundering anyway.

[gkrieg13]

I'd vote yes on ADK Faust. That would be my preferred team out of the three presidents. Although I'm still feeling fine about Hydrad.

[Hydrad]

Well I prefer myself. but faust sounds good also.

[EgorK]

I'd prefer Hydrad

[ghostofmars]

So essentially there are two scenarios: A) Tables is fascist and B) Tables is liberal. In scenario B, we are not in a really bad shape. We know two fascists, but also know two of the liberals. From my perspective, we could go around the table in that scenario with ghost -> faust -> gkrieg? -> Tables.
Much more dangerous is the scenario A (that I consider more likely). In that scenario, we know only one liberal (EgorK) and one fascist (Tables). faust's and Archetype's alignment are unknown. Because this scenario is more dangerous, I would prefer to try to prepare against it and hopefully also learn something about scenario B along the way.
Btw. here is my interpretation of the game state: Fascist Archetype enforces a fascist law and clears a liberal (EgorK). By appointing EgorK as chancellor and blaming the fascist law on him fascist Tables removes one of the people on which we have hard facts from the circle.

Here are my reads on the remaining players (assuming scenario A).

Hydrad Poor voting record. Approved every government so far. Most importantly, approved Tables/EgorK over ADK/himself. Slight fascist read.

Grujah The only player that can claim a liberal voting record. Towny comments. My best liberal read. Might be Hitler, though.

gkrieg Approved both governments that enacted a fascist law, but his comments seem genuine. Liberal read.

ADK Declined the last government (even if only for tactical reasons). Slight liberal read.

faust I don't like his interaction with the other players and Tables in particular. He seems to sure about the alignment. In the beginning he was very convinced that Tables is fascist. Then he turned around and found him the most liberal. He proceeded to attack gkrieg and then me. It could be that he just staged the fight with Tables in the beginning to coordinate that there votes are on opposite sides. I also didn't like how Tables pushed to investigate faust. First, he said wanted to investigate faust. Then after I had proposed to look for his strongest fascist read, he broadened his selection only to narrow it down on faust again. My strongest fascist read (other than Tables/Archetype).

So my guess for the scum team is Tables/Archetype/faust. I don't have a good read who would be Hitler in this scenario.

For the record: In scenario B, my guess for the scum team would be Archetype/EgorK/ADK. It should be clear that at least one scum would not approve a liberal president.

As a general comment: Imho the liberal players have been far to liberal with their votes. Any player (other than yourself) has a 50% chance to be liberal in the beginning of the game. So you should approximately approve in 50% of the time. The present voting pattern, indicates an approval rate of 60-70% which leads to faster government formation and less voting rounds. Hence, we gain less information which helps the fascists.

Finally, I will vote nein! for ADK's government. If Tables is liberal, it is likely that he is fascist. And while I can see putting faust as chancellor to get some information about Tables and faust, I prefer my shadow cabinet ghost/Grujah.

[Tables]

Just two things I'd like to point out, ghost.

1)

Much more dangerous is the scenario A (that I consider more likely). In that scenario, we know only one liberal (EgorK) and one fascist (Tables).

If I'm fascist, that doesn't clear EgorK. It's possible that Arch/EgorK/Tables would be the fascist team. I know this is kinda splitting hairs a little but even if you suspect me, don't assume that exonerates EgorK.

So my guess for the scum team is Tables/Archetype/faust. I don't have a good read who would be Hitler in this scenario.

For the record: In scenario B, my guess for the scum team would be Archetype/EgorK/ADK. It should be clear that at least one scum would not approve a liberal president.

So, you suspect Archetype regardless of what you feel about my loyalty, is what I'm surmising here? That's good if that's the case. As for your last point... I wouldn't be entirely certain about that. Usually, yes, Scum want fascists in government, but they also want to not get outed as fascists too quickly, right? And because they have no external communication it's not like they are directly able to co-ordinate, so there would likely be times fascists would approve a government with scum on it, just to blend in.

[EgorK]

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

[faust]

Btw. here is my interpretation of the game state: Fascist Archetype enforces a fascist law and clears a liberal (EgorK). By appointing EgorK as chancellor and blaming the fascist law on him fascist Tables removes one of the people on which we have hard facts from the circle.

It should be noted that the above scenario only really works out for fascist!Tables if he draws FFL or FFF. Which I guess is most likely, so fine.

faust I don't like his interaction with the other players and Tables in particular. He seems to sure about the alignment. In the beginning he was very convinced that Tables is fascist. Then he turned around and found him the most liberal. He proceeded to attack gkrieg and then me. It could be that he just staged the fight with Tables in the beginning to coordinate that there votes are on opposite sides. I also didn't like how Tables pushed to investigate faust. First, he said wanted to investigate faust. Then after I had proposed to look for his strongest fascist read, he broadened his selection only to narrow it down on faust again. My strongest fascist read (other than Tables/Archetype).

So everyone gets some quick comment, but you feel compelled to write a whole paragraph about me? When, for example, your read on gkrieg could be most enlightening? That seems strange.

And uh you don't bring up any new points. All this I have already discussed with Tables, and it's my playstyle. I don't know how trying to figure out people's alignments and being open-minded about it and putting some pressure on people who might be fascist is a bad thing. What does a fascist gain from that? Then you get in some sort of conspiracy theory scenario where I am an evil mastermind and Tables is a puppet dancing to my strings.

The last thing I get. I don't like the investigation myself. But would fascist!Tables investigate fascist!me and claim liberal? Does that not force the two of us to always act liberal or else two fascists are outed at once? It seems that fascist!Tables does not want to lie about his result here.

So my guess for the scum team is Tables/Archetype/faust. I don't have a good read who would be Hitler in this scenario.

So this is based on the scenario described above... a scenario that come to think of it is possible, but there is no real reason to believe in it over other scenarios, at least none given. I don't know that two fascists would play themselves into a scenario where it is confirmed that one of them is a fascist.

For the record: In scenario B, my guess for the scum team would be Archetype/EgorK/ADK. It should be clear that at least one scum would not approve a liberal president.

This is a fallacy. The votes of the fascists are independent from one another. If one of them can vote for a liberal government, then all of them can.

Finally, I will vote nein! for ADK's government. If Tables is liberal, it is likely that he is fascist. And while I can see putting faust as chancellor to get some information about Tables and faust, I prefer my shadow cabinet ghost/Grujah.

And yet again you prepare yourself for opportunistic voting. There are no reasons given for why ADK would be a fascist except some bogus probability argument.

[faust]

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

Well, I do not see liberal!you posting this, because liberal!you would know that Tables is fascist.

[EgorK]

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

Well, I do not see liberal!you posting this, because liberal!you would know that Tables is fascist.

That's my point. He is fascist and I am liberal.

[EgorK]

I mean, if he is liberal, there is no point in posting what he did. If he is fascist and so am I, there is not point in that post as well. I just pointed that out

[faust]

I mean, if he is liberal, there is no point in posting what he did. If he is fascist and so am I, there is not point in that post as well. I just pointed that out

This is wrong.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Right now I'm thinking Arch/Egor/ghost are fascists, with egor as the most likely Hitler. I'm still uncertain about the fourth.

[EgorK]

I mean, if he is liberal, there is no point in posting what he did. If he is fascist and so am I, there is not point in that post as well. I just pointed that out

This is wrong.

Which part?

[Kirian]

I see a lot of people posting three-member Fascist teams.  This is a reminder that there are four fascists, one of whom is Hitler.

[gkrieg13]

I'd prefer Hydrad

Why?

[gkrieg13]

Right now I'm thinking Arch/Egor/ghost are fascists, with egor as the most likely Hitler. I'm still uncertain about the fourth.

You really think EgorK is more likely to be fascist than Tables?  I definitely agree that ghost is conf!fascist.  His reads list seems very fabricated.  He says that I have a fine voting record and that Hydrad has a poor voting record, when we have voted the same every time.

Faust you are partially wrong about ghost's analysis of the feel of your play.  I agree that a liberal has reason to put pressure on people, but a fascist also has reason to put pressure on people.  The more pressure that is put on someone, the more they need to post, which gives more evidence against them even if they are liberal. When pressuring people you tend to give absolutes about people's alignments before having any actual data, then sticking to those reads when you feel like they react badly to pressure.  I think it is more of a meta thing for you.

After reading all of these posts, it seems more likely to me that EgorK is fascist, which makes Arch fascist.  His reactions to everything have seemed constructed, and he seems to be forgetting he and Tables can't both be liberal.

[EgorK]

I'd prefer Hydrad

Why?

Because I know tables is fascist, and he cleared faust

[EgorK]

His reactions to everything have seemed constructed, and he seems to be forgetting he and Tables can't both be liberal.

If this is about me can you enlighten me where I had forgotten that?

[gkrieg13]

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

I guess it was this quote.  I may be confused by what it means then.

[EgorK]

In team with me only applies to scum Tables

[EgorK]

I mean, what's the point to post that as liberal? Town will never be sure that tables is fascist in that case, and so it is irrelevant

What's the point to post that if Tables is fascist and so am I? Also makes no sense

Only plausible case is Tables is fascist, I am liberal, and he tries to safeguard against being outed somehow later in he game/cast some shadow in my direction

[ghostofmars]

If I'm fascist, that doesn't clear EgorK. It's possible that Arch/EgorK/Tables would be the fascist team.

I see that this is technically possible, but I don't see you actually playing that way if both you and EgorK are fascist.

So, you suspect Archetype regardless of what you feel about my loyalty, is what I'm surmising here? That's good if that's the case. As for your last point... I wouldn't be entirely certain about that. Usually, yes, Scum want fascists in government, but they also want to not get outed as fascists too quickly, right? And because they have no external communication it's not like they are directly able to co-ordinate, so there would likely be times fascists would approve a government with scum on it, just to blend in.

I agree that scum players have a limited ability to communicate. However for the scenario ADK and you liberal, all 4(!) fascist would have to vote for a liberal president.

[ghostofmars]

So everyone gets some quick comment, but you feel compelled to write a whole paragraph about me? When, for example, your read on gkrieg could be most enlightening? That seems strange.

Well you are the player about which I have more information than the other 4 players. For the other ones I just have voting patterns, for you there is Tables investigation.

The last thing I get. I don't like the investigation myself. But would fascist!Tables investigate fascist!me and claim liberal? Does that not force the two of us to always act liberal or else two fascists are outed at once? It seems that fascist!Tables does not want to lie about his result here.

I don't agree. If one more fascist law gets passed, we are in the situation where fascist could win by electing Hitler. Hence, if you as a chancellor or president enact a fascist law, we might guess that you/Tables are fascist, but we only know a single liberal (EgorK). In this scenario even by chance it is very likely that we elect Hitler.

I don't know that two fascists would play themselves into a scenario where it is confirmed that one of them is a fascist.

Yet, you assume that Archetype and EgorK outed themselves

This is a fallacy. The votes of the fascists are independent from one another. If one of them can vote for a liberal government, then all of them can.

Votes of fascist are not totally independent. E.g. Archetype stated in the thread that he would vote for the government, so a fascist!ADK could react to this by voting it down. Furthermore as in the reply to Tables. Liberal!ADK requires all 4 fascists to approve a liberal president, something that I cannot see.

There are no reasons given for why ADK would be a fascist except some bogus probability argument.

Imho, hard data (voting + enacted laws) beats soft data (reads).

[ghostofmars]

I see a lot of people posting three-member Fascist teams.  This is a reminder that there are four fascists, one of whom is Hitler.

Just to clarify, I'm aware that the scum team is 4 people, but Hitler plays very differently then the other scum players. So the scum team I proposed are the fascist but non-Hitler players.

[ghostofmars]

You really think EgorK is more likely to be fascist than Tables?  I definitely agree that ghost is conf!fascist.  His reads list seems very fabricated.  He says that I have a fine voting record and that Hydrad has a poor voting record, when we have voted the same every time.

There are two significant differences between your and Hydrad's voting record
a) You approved your own government (president with alignment known to you), Hydrad approved your government but doesn't know your alignment (unless he is fascist).
b) Hydrad approved Tables/EgorK even though he would have been ADK's chancellor. You had to select one of three governments none of which contained you.

Finally there is also the voting of other players on your government. The two governments that enacted a fascist law were passed 7-2. The government that you proposed failed 4-5. That makes it more likely that you are liberal.

[Grujah]

I might candidate gkrieg. I am not sure yet tho, still limitef access so kinda hard. Till 28th. Also dontthink i can aprove most nonme goverment as i i got not many real liberal reads ( i can be prez this cycle, right?) sry for poor typing, cant type on phone.

[Grujah]

Or maybe egor, he is pretty certanly lib if tables is f. Unless tables is doung next level busing. That means i meed to be pretty certain about tables

[Grujah]

No wait. I cant be prez this cycle, so what i said doestn matter that much

[faust]

I don't know that two fascists would play themselves into a scenario where it is confirmed that one of them is a fascist.

Yet, you assume that Archetype and EgorK outed themselves

I don't.

[faust]

There are no reasons given for why ADK would be a fascist except some bogus probability argument.

Imho, hard data (voting + enacted laws) beats soft data (reads).

And this is pretty ridiculous. Your "hard data" is only interpretation of people's voting patterns, i.e. reads, i.e. "soft data". The distinction is meaningless.

[Tables]

If I'm fascist, that doesn't clear EgorK. It's possible that Arch/EgorK/Tables would be the fascist team.

I see that this is technically possible, but I don't see you actually playing that way if both you and EgorK are fascist.

You're really trying hard to split hairs here and just making yourself look worse in the process. At this point I'm far less concerned with being on missions myself than I am about keeping you and Arch off at pretty much all costs. Any liberal/liberal missions are good for me, so unlike you, I'm not focusing on trying to get myself on the missions specifically. I just want no fascists on and I'll be happy.

Anyway reading other stuff, probably won't reply again tonight (been a busy weekend and am now tired), expect something substantial tomorrow evening.

[EgorK]

You only want to keep Arch/ghost from missions and not me, that's funny. Amount of fascist slips from you is ridiculous this game

[Tables]

You only want to keep Arch/ghost from missions and not me, that's funny. Amount of fascist slips from you is ridiculous this game

Is it just me or does this post literally not make sense?

[EgorK]

What do you mean?

[Grujah]

Why are you cincerned about egirk looking worse ib the process? And how much worse can he look to you when hecis confirmed fascist to you

[EgorK]

Why are you cincerned about egirk looking worse ib the process? And how much worse can he look to you when hecis confirmed fascist to you

Pointing out problems in posts of someone who is conf!fascist to you, but not yet to the players at large is valid tactics. After all you need to prove that someone is fascist to others.

By the way, I still do not understand how that Tables post, where he said that even if he is fascist, I am not necessarily liberal, can came from anyone but fascist. Can anyone enlighten me?

[Grujah]

Why are you cincerned about egirk looking worse ib the process? And how much worse can he look to you when hecis confirmed fascist to you

Pointing out problems in posts of someone who is conf!fascist to you, but not yet to the players at large is valid tactics. After all you need to prove that someone is fascist to others.

By the way, I still do not understand how that Tables post, where he said that even if he is fascist, I am not necessarily liberal, can came from anyone but fascist. Can anyone enlighten me?

Well, it can be 'general game advice'  though, yeah, that post is reeks of seeding doubt even if he gets busted.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm going to nominate faust. If you're liberal, you'll yes on vote this.

Nominate: faust

[faust]

Good stuff. This is definitely my preferred government out of all possibilities.

[Tables]

What do you mean?

I mean the post makes literally no sense. I just told everyone "don't trust Egor regardless of what you think about me" and you reply saying "Why doesn't Tables care about keeping me off mission." Like, I literally just said the exact opposite thing. I don't think I've even mentioned once about keeping Ghost off of missions, especially considering my read on Ghost is somewhat liberal.

Not only that but apparently I'm making a "ridiculous amount of scumslips?" Like, if I were a fascist I would agree, because zero scumslips is pretty ridiculous. But you know, it's easy to not scumslip, when you aren't scum.

Basically, what this is boiling down to is, Egor is not making any sense any more. He knows he's backed into a corner, and seems to be getting desperate to try and make me look bad, but since there's nothing there to actually latch on to, is just throwing out wild accusations, such as implying I'm scumslipping but choosing not to demonstrate it to everyone (why? Because he can't, but wants to raise suspicion on me as much as possible).

Only plausible case is Tables is fascist, I am liberal, and he tries to safeguard against being outed somehow later in he game/cast some shadow in my direction

Or if you're fascist, I'm liberal, and I want to remind everyone that even if they suspect me, they should still never trust you. Which it is, since if one cares to look back at when it was posted, you'll see I was directly quoting someone who was suggesting it being a case of A or B, while ignoring the possibility of C. And so I pointed out the logical error. Which, as one will note, is something I've done on more than one occasion, regardless of whether it benefits me.

Honestly, you seem really intent to blow this one comment completely away from it's context, then blow it completely out of proportion. It was a two sentence reply just making note of a possibility ghost had overlooked. It even contained the phrase "I know this is kinda splitting hairs," so it's not even like I was trying to make a big deal of it. I wanted to point out the error and also make sure that even if people think I'm likely scum, they don't go thinking Arch and you are cleared as a result.

Why are you cincerned about egirk looking worse ib the process? And how much worse can he look to you when hecis confirmed fascist to you

Go home, Grujah, you're drunk. But hopefully I've made this clear above already. I'm quite happy to point out the dirt around Egor, since it makes it less likely a fascist will be elected. If he says something that doesn't make sense, I'm going to call it out, for this reason, and also so I can actually respond to whatever point was being tried to be made.

I'm going to nominate faust. If you're liberal, you'll yes on vote this.

Nominate: faust

I don't like that closing statement there, but... yeah, I think this is the best possible proposal.

You really think EgorK is more likely to be fascist than Tables?  I definitely agree that ghost is conf!fascist.  His reads list seems very fabricated.  He says that I have a fine voting record and that Hydrad has a poor voting record, when we have voted the same every time.

I haven't really been suspicious of ghost, I still has a slight liberal read on him, but regardless I really struggle to see how he's anything close to confirmed fascist.

[Hydrad]

If I'm fascist, that doesn't clear EgorK. It's possible that Arch/EgorK/Tables would be the fascist team.

I see that this is technically possible, but I don't see you actually playing that way if both you and EgorK are fascist.

You're really trying hard to split hairs here and just making yourself look worse in the process. At this point I'm far less concerned with being on missions myself than I am about keeping you and Arch off at pretty much all costs. Any liberal/liberal missions are good for me, so unlike you, I'm not focusing on trying to get myself on the missions specifically. I just want no fascists on and I'll be happy.

Anyway reading other stuff, probably won't reply again tonight (been a busy weekend and am now tired), expect something substantial tomorrow evening.

You replied to ghost here. Is that what's causing confusion?

[Tables]

That... uhh, yeah. Wow, major derp.

I think that clears up why Egor seemed to not be making sense, at least. Because I wasn't making sense in the first place. Heh.

Apologies to everyone who I've confused.

[ghostofmars]

Or maybe egor, he is pretty certanly lib if tables is f. Unless tables is doung next level busing. That means i meed to be pretty certain about tables

I would not include Tables or EgorK until 3 fascist laws have passed. Then it might be better to choose one of them, because it seems less likely that one of them is Hitler.

I'm going to nominate faust. If you're liberal, you'll yes on vote this.
Nominate: faust

I stated my reasons why I don't like this government earlier so just a brief summary. From my perspective, if Tables is liberal, ADK is likely fascist. If Tables is fascist then he might have selected one of the remaining fascist players to get the third fascist law enacted. So I don't approve this government. I hope that the remaining liberal players at least consider this possibility and choose Hydrad of preferably me as a president.

Hydrad could you please post your shadow cabinet, so that the other players can make an informed choice.

[ghostofmars]

I don't know that two fascists would play themselves into a scenario where it is confirmed that one of them is a fascist.

Yet, you assume that Archetype and EgorK outed themselves

I don't.

Well this post made me think that you think that EgorK is fascist (and hence Archetype, too).

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

Well, I do not see liberal!you posting this, because liberal!you would know that Tables is fascist.

If that is not the case whom do you consider as fascist?

There are no reasons given for why ADK would be a fascist except some bogus probability argument.

Imho, hard data (voting + enacted laws) beats soft data (reads).

And this is pretty ridiculous. Your "hard data" is only interpretation of people's voting patterns, i.e. reads, i.e. "soft data". The distinction is meaningless.

The distinction is simple. Everything that is enforced by the game rules = hard data. A vote has a consequence in the game, hence it is more important than a read.

[faust]

I don't know that two fascists would play themselves into a scenario where it is confirmed that one of them is a fascist.

Yet, you assume that Archetype and EgorK outed themselves

I don't.

Well this post made me think that you think that EgorK is fascist (and hence Archetype, too).

I do not see liberal Tables/scum Tables in team with me ever posting first past of last post

Well, I do not see liberal!you posting this, because liberal!you would know that Tables is fascist.

If that is not the case whom do you consider as fascist?

I do think it is likely that they are both fascist. I do not think they outed themselves.

[Hydrad]

Hydrad could you please post your shadow cabinet, so that the other players can make an informed choice.

I'd probably pick you or faust.

Maybe ADK also. but you or faust are the top 2 for me right now.

[faust]

So... did everybody vote? Why is nothing happening? Kirian?

[Kirian]

I still need votes from Arch, Grujah, and Hydrad.

[Archetype]

Sorry, I was waiting for the proposal to be confirmed.

[gkrieg13]

vote vote vote!

[Hydrad]

wow I thought I voted. I'm sorry guys.

[Kirian]

Just waiting on Grujah then, he may not be back from his skiing trip yet though.

[Kirian]

Ja:  ADK, faust, gkrieg13, Tables, Hydrad
Nein: EgorK, ghostofmars, Archetype, Grujah

ADK is confirmed as President.

Cards will be PM'd shortly, feel free to CO.

[gkrieg13]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

[EgorK]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

[ghostofmars]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

[Hydrad]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

well I can still be voted after this right?

I dunno just having faust "cleared" alone makes me think its an alright combo. And ADK doesn't seem too scummy to me. So I'm pretty ok with this one.

[Grujah]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Could be Hitler.

[Grujah]

Also, I didn't lean on ADK on either F or L, and Tables clearing Faust wasn't really that convincing, so I voted no, but it was a close call.

[Tables]

Umm  shouldn't we be in silence right now?

[gkrieg13]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Why is one fascist for? There are 5 liberals

[EgorK]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Why is one fascist for? There are 5 liberals

Because Tables is fascist. Also I am liberal

[Tables]

Legislative Phase

The Legislative Phase happens entirely in PMs.No discussion may happen during this phase.

Guys.

[Kirian]

Legislative Phase

The Legislative Phase happens entirely in PMs.No discussion may happen during this phase.

Guys.

Eh.  That could be clearer... none of this discussion is an attempt to influence the cards, or the holders of those cards.  So I think it's not a problem.

In other words, the legislative phase occurs entirely in PMs anyway, it's not something that can be discussed really, when you think about it.

That said:

faust reveals a Liberal policy.

No Executive phase occurs.

ghostofmars is now the Presidential candidate.

[Tables]

The discussion could influence what a fascist decides to do, even if it's not directly about the cards, right? But eh, whatever.

Anyway, good result, but let's hear what Faust was passed and what ADK claims as well.

[ghostofmars]

As it's now the first time that it matters: ADK could you please claim first so that you cannot coordinate in the unlikely case that you are fascist and Faust is Hitler.

[Grujah]

they can coordinate that way, adk could have sent lf and can claim ll or the other way around, signaling faust. they cant w/o risk if faust goes first. or am i wrong

[Hydrad]

guys we did it!

I always believed in you.

[A Drowned Kernel]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

[faust]

Oh man, I hoped you'd have discarded at least one fascist policy.... that's really bad news.

[Tables]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

This is bad, if it's true. It means 4-6 of the Liberal Policies have already gone, so there's at most 2 left in the deck. That means we're very likely to have someone draw FFF at some point in the next three rounds.

However, it's possible ADK is lying to cover for something. Although exactly what isn't obvious to me. I guess it could be to make it seem more likely that Arch drew FFF, since it accounts for the L's in the deck more clearly. But... this just doesn't seem likely to me. On the other hand drawing LLL is also very unlikely. Tsk. I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Hmm... we have quite a bit of hard information now. Let me list all the facts I can think of, for easy reference - although working on the assumption that liberals always tell the truth. I'll keep these objective for now, so all of this should be 100% true for everyone.

Arch/ghostofmars played an F.
Tables/EgorK played an F
ADK/faust played an L.

Arch drew 0-2 L's. If Arch is liberal, Arch drew 0 L's. If ghost but not Arch is liberal, Arch drew 0-1 L's.
Tables drew 0-2 L's. If Tables is liberal, Tables drew 1 L. If EgorK but not Tables is liberal, Tables drew 0-1 L's.
ADK drew 1-3 L's. If ADK is liberal, ADK drew 3 L's. If faust but not ADK is liberal, ADK drew 2-3 L's.

At least one of Tables and EgorK is a fascist.
-If Tables is liberal, EgorK is a fascist
-If EgorK is liberal, Tables is a fascist

Arch claims EgorK is liberal.
-If EgorK is a fascist, Arch is a fascist
-If Arch is liberal, Tables is a fascist

Tables claims faust is liberal
-If faust is a fascist, Tables is a fascist

There's also voting patterns, but they're already collated neatly and I need to go to bed anyway.

Now based on this... I know EgorK and Arch are fascists, and both voted no to this proposal. Hmm. Ghost and Grujah also both voted no. One of those could be the third fascist, but I dunno. Ghost had next proposal, so that isn't much of a reason to suspect him. Grujah... why did you vote no? Or, well, I can see a bit of an explanation up the page, but could you explain a little more maybe?

Hitler could have voted either way here, he's probably still being liberal though. Hard to deduce anything about him right now.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ghost if fascist for real. I am very confident about this.

[EgorK]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

How so?

I mean, look from my pov. You selected faust as you chancelor, the only thing I know about faust is that he is said to be liberal by confirmed fascist. I see no reason to vote for goverment with him

Besides LLL proves about nothing about your or faust alignment. You have no reason to claim anything but LLL in this case. Well, probably FLL just to spread some confusion, but it is a minit point (besides, you can claim LLL if it was FLL and faust is liberal, so there were no point in passing FL)

[ghostofmars]

Just when I hoped, we had finally figured out one liberal player, this had to happen

The bad news is I drew LLL.

So now I'm not sure anymore if ADK is liberal.

I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Here are the maths. Actually LLL is more likely that I would have thought, depending on the previous rounds.

If Archetype and Tables told the truth, there were 5L and 6F left. Note that in this scenario Archetype is still fascist, but he got unlucky (from his perspective) and drew FFF anyway. In this scenario, we have a 6.1% chance for LLL and a 36.4% chance for LLF.

If Archetype told the truth and Tables lied, there were 6L and 5F left. The chance for LLL is 12.1% and for LLF 57.6%.

If Archetype lied and Tables told the truth, there were only 4L and 7F left. Here there is only a 2.4% chance for LLL and a 25.5% chance for LLF.

Finally if both Archetype and Tables lied, there were 5L and 6F left. The chance for LLL is 6.1% and for LLF it's 36.4%.


So from this I take that if Tables told the truth, it is much more likely that ADK lied and vice versa. Hence, I think it even more likely that not both Tables and ADK are liberal.
It is also a bit more likely that Archetype told the truth, but that doesn't necessarily tell us something about his alignment.

[ghostofmars]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

well I can still be voted after this right?

I dunno just having faust "cleared" alone makes me think its an alright combo. And ADK doesn't seem too scummy to me. So I'm pretty ok with this one.

Imho, you shouldn't consider every government on its own. You should compare all possible options, which were ADK/faust, me/Grujah, and you/(faust or me), and select the one you think is the most liberal.

[EgorK]

Just when I hoped, we had finally figured out one liberal player, this had to happen

The bad news is I drew LLL.

So now I'm not sure anymore if ADK is liberal.

I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Here are the maths. Actually LLL is more likely that I would have thought, depending on the previous rounds.

If Archetype and Tables told the truth, there were 5L and 6F left. Note that in this scenario Archetype is still fascist, but he got unlucky (from his perspective) and drew FFF anyway. In this scenario, we have a 6.1% chance for LLL and a 36.4% chance for LLF.

If Archetype told the truth and Tables lied, there were 6L and 5F left. The chance for LLL is 12.1% and for LLF 57.6%.

If Archetype lied and Tables told the truth, there were only 4L and 7F left. Here there is only a 2.4% chance for LLL and a 25.5% chance for LLF.

Finally if both Archetype and Tables lied, there were 5L and 6F left. The chance for LLL is 6.1% and for LLF it's 36.4%.


So from this I take that if Tables told the truth, it is much more likely that ADK lied and vice versa. Hence, I think it even more likely that not both Tables and ADK are liberal.
It is also a bit more likely that Archetype told the truth, but that doesn't necessarily tell us something about his alignment.

I actually think that Tables told truth that he drawn FFL, just not what cards he passed to me.

[faust]

Math is all good and fine, but I don't think it matters here, because I doubt that fascist!ADK (and fascist!me if you believe that) have any reason to claim more Ls than there actually were.

For instance: Assume there are <2 Ls drawn. That means ADK and me both are lying, and thus are fascists. But then... why didn't we enact a fascist policy? Seems stupid. So <2 L is out of the picture. You guys know as much as I do  - there were at least 2 Ls. This makes all calculations in ghost's post moot I believe.

[faust]

Also, less than two L implies a Tables/me/ADK team because if I were fascist, the same holds for Tables. Then it makes even less sense to claim a result that makes it more likely that Arch told the truth...

[faust]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

[EgorK]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

[faust]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

Have you read my posts? ghost's calculations are meaningless. Even more so for me, because I absolutely know that there were 2 Ls.

[faust]

Some talk about the next government would be good.

I will vote no against any ghost government. I am kind of torn between Hydrad and Grujah, so it would depend on their Chancellor choices.

[gkrieg13]

I would probably vote yes for Hydrad. I trust him more than grujah and ghost is conf!fascist

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

[Tables]

I have to agree with faust, I don't feel that Ghost's reasoning especially demonstrates anything explicitly. The main question I have to ask is - suppose ADK didn't tell the truth and drew FLL. Why did he lie? Consider effectively, he passed LL. That means as scum he could claim FLL or LLL reasonably. FLL is a nice, convenient claim - drew a fascist policy and threw it out. No lying needed, looks pretty liberal. Or even drawing FLL lets him pass FL, claiming to have thrown out F, and spread misinformation about the number of L in the deck while looking good himself. With two failed missions before, it's hardly like there was any danger of someone drawing so many L's that he looks bad later on - it'd just make people on M1 and M2 look worse, most likely.

So if he lied, it has to be better than these options - or well, I don't know how much ADK analysed the options on what he could claim, but he has to have thought it was worth lying about for some reason over just telling the truth. That means basically, one of two things:

1) ADK is telling the truth, regardless of his loyalty.
2) ADK thought there was something reasonably useful to hide by lying and claiming LLL.

What does an LLL claim hide? It makes claims with less L's in sound more likely. Right now, that would be Archetype, who claimed FFF but likely drew FFL. I claimed FFL, but it's not really my draw that has been under dispute at all. So this could be to cover for Arch? It could also be to cover for future Fascist plays, allowing F's to be played more easily under the pretense of drawing FFF. I guess it could also have just been a spur of the moment lie, although for what reason? None of these really sound especially convincing as reasons to lie, to me, which makes me think option 1 is most likely. However it isn't impossible.

Or in other words, ADK probably did draw LLL is my conclusion.

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

Faust was just chancellor, so this isn't an option. Hydrad I think I quite like as President, at the very least I haven't seen anything to make me particularly suspicious of him. Grujah... I don't have a bad read on Grujah, so to speak, but there's been a few little odd things here and there. And Ghost... I STILL don't have such a bad read on him, like faust does. His votes have been suspicious, but I have a hard time completely writing him off.

[gkrieg13]

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

faust was just in the last government right?  He can't be in one this round

[gkrieg13]

I have to agree with faust, I don't feel that Ghost's reasoning especially demonstrates anything explicitly. The main question I have to ask is - suppose ADK didn't tell the truth and drew FLL. Why did he lie? Consider effectively, he passed LL. That means as scum he could claim FLL or LLL reasonably. FLL is a nice, convenient claim - drew a fascist policy and threw it out. No lying needed, looks pretty liberal. Or even drawing FLL lets him pass FL, claiming to have thrown out F, and spread misinformation about the number of L in the deck while looking good himself. With two failed missions before, it's hardly like there was any danger of someone drawing so many L's that he looks bad later on - it'd just make people on M1 and M2 look worse, most likely.

So if he lied, it has to be better than these options - or well, I don't know how much ADK analysed the options on what he could claim, but he has to have thought it was worth lying about for some reason over just telling the truth. That means basically, one of two things:

1) ADK is telling the truth, regardless of his loyalty.
2) ADK thought there was something reasonably useful to hide by lying and claiming LLL.

What does an LLL claim hide? It makes claims with less L's in sound more likely. Right now, that would be Archetype, who claimed FFF but likely drew FFL. I claimed FFL, but it's not really my draw that has been under dispute at all. So this could be to cover for Arch? It could also be to cover for future Fascist plays, allowing F's to be played more easily under the pretense of drawing FFF. I guess it could also have just been a spur of the moment lie, although for what reason? None of these really sound especially convincing as reasons to lie, to me, which makes me think option 1 is most likely. However it isn't impossible.

Or in other words, ADK probably did draw LLL is my conclusion.

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

Faust was just chancellor, so this isn't an option. Hydrad I think I quite like as President, at the very least I haven't seen anything to make me particularly suspicious of him. Grujah... I don't have a bad read on Grujah, so to speak, but there's been a few little odd things here and there. And Ghost... I STILL don't have such a bad read on him, like faust does. His votes have been suspicious, but I have a hard time completely writing him off.

So who do you have a bad read on?

[gkrieg13]

I would support a Hydrad / gkrieg government.  I'd have to think about most other governments.  ADK and faust are my top liberal reads right now with Hydrad and grujah behind them. 

One of Tables or EgorK is probably liberal, so I guess one of my liberal reads is off.  I think I trust Hydrad over grujah?

[EgorK]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

Have you read my posts? ghost's calculations are meaningless. Even more so for me, because I absolutely know that there were 2 Ls.

I had addressed part I disagreed with. I agree with the fact that those calculations are meaningless, I addressed that in second half of my post

[ghostofmars]

Math is all good and fine, but I don't think it matters here, because I doubt that fascist!ADK (and fascist!me if you believe that) have any reason to claim more Ls than there actually were.

For instance: Assume there are <2 Ls drawn. That means ADK and me both are lying, and thus are fascists. But then... why didn't we enact a fascist policy? Seems stupid. So <2 L is out of the picture. You guys know as much as I do  - there were at least 2 Ls. This makes all calculations in ghost's post moot I believe.

I still think it is more likely that ADK is liberal. I just don't see the scenario where he and Tables are liberal.

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Nevertheless it is not difficult to come up with a scenario where fascist!ADK would lie. Perhaps he wants to give another fascist a easy way to claim FFF or just create confusion.

Of the available candidates Grujah is still my best town read, so I'm likely to propose him as a chancellor, but I would like to hear the shadow cabinets of him and Hydrad before I announce it officially.

[faust]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

[Hydrad]

ok well LLL here makes me feel a bit better about arch as that makes FFF a bit more possible. Still not going to vote for him at the moment though.

Actually one thing that catches my interest is why would arch say FFF. as a liberal its just unlucky. But as a facist the only reason for that would be if he was paired with a facist right? so that we would still consider ghost as a possible liberal?

hmmm.

And I can't nominate ADK/faust huh... Thats kinda annoying.

Arch/egork/tables are out. grujah would be a coin flip. ghost I'm not feeling the best about now.

So I think I might go gkreig. Makes me feel a bit better that he didn't get voted through in a way since the 2 rounds after him both ended up being F rounds.

[Grujah]

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

[Grujah]

So I think I might go gkreig. Makes me feel a bit better that he didn't get voted through in a way since the 2 rounds after him both ended up being F rounds.

Yeah, that makes gkrieg good candidate for sure.

[Grujah]

Just for the reminder, Tables, Arch, Egor and ghost voted that down.

[ghostofmars]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

Now you are just ridiculous. I just used an hypergeometric distribution calculator and quoted the resulting numbers. The only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth. This in combination with the fact that ADK voted down Tables government leads me to the conclusion that they are not both liberal.

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

I still think it is better to consider all governments and take the best option. Towards the end of the game it may make sense, but now from your perspective you+gkrieg should be strongly preferred over Hydrad+gkrieg.

Btw I don't think LLL tells us much about faust's alignment. He didn't have any option.

nominate Grujah

[faust]

only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth.

Yes - and that conclusion is wrong.

Look, let's go through your scenarios.

Arch + Tables told the truth: So you say we have 6.1% LLL and 36.4% FLL. Other cases are impossible, thus we have 14.4% LLL and 85.6% FLL

Arch told the truth, Tables lied: Similarly, from your numbers we get 17.4% LLL and 82.6% FLL.

Arch lied, Tables told the truth: This gives 8.6% LLL and 91.4% FLL.

Both Arch and Tables lied: Again 14.4% LLL and 85.6% FLL.

Nothing here is "3 times more likely" than something else.

[ghostofmars]

This is not how statistic works. You need to do Bayesian inference. Let's do just Tables truth or not combined with LLL to keep things simple.

P(H|E) = P(E|H) P(H) / P(E)

P(H|E): probability that Tables told the truth (hypothesis, H) given the evidence (E) that LLL was drawn.
P(E|H): probability for observing the evidence E, given that the hypotheses H is true
P(H): initial guess for the probability that the Tables told the truth
P(E): sum of all probabilities

Let's say we didn't know anything P(H) = 0.5. If Tables told the truth the chance for LLL is 2.4 to 6.1%, so approximately P(E|H) = 0.04. If Tables lied the chance for LLL is 6.1 to 12.1%, so approximately P(E|not H) = 0.09. Hence, P(E) = P(not H)P(E|not H) + P(H)P(E|H) = 0.065 and this gives
P(H|E) = 0.04 * 0.5 / 0.065 = 0.31
and
P(not H|E) = 0.09 * 0.5 / 0.065 = 0.69

This is the proper way the probabilities add up to 1.

[Grujah]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

Now you are just ridiculous. I just used an hypergeometric distribution calculator and quoted the resulting numbers. The only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth. This in combination with the fact that ADK voted down Tables government leads me to the conclusion that they are not both liberal.

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

I still think it is better to consider all governments and take the best option. Towards the end of the game it may make sense, but now from your perspective you+gkrieg should be strongly preferred over Hydrad+gkrieg.

Btw I don't think LLL tells us much about faust's alignment. He didn't have any option.

nominate Grujah

Voting No on all but best of 3 options can easily result in no-vote, which is bad, especially now. Also electing earlier suggested goverment take it longer till Arch or Egor or other suspected Fascists get to be president.

[Grujah]

And I don't really have much choice in choosing a chancellor anyway, it kinda boils down to Hydrad / gkrieg. Gkrieg might actually be Hitler, but doesn't matter now.

[Tables]

So who do you have a bad read on?

Right now... nobody especially. Grujah is probably my biggest suspect, but remember I already know two fascists and two liberals, so I'm looking for basically one more fascist and Hitler (or well possibly two fascists but that seems unlikely). Beyond him... I don't think Ghost is obvscum like faust does, but he has raised a few alarm bells for me. Gkrieg seems liberal, by and large. ADK just passed that mission, and it seems like a lot of fascists voted it down, which makes him look rather liberal to me. Hydrad... man, Hydrad just hasn't really touched my radar at all, in either direction. Most likely one of those is Hitler. Possibly Arch is Hitler and EgorK screwed up in trying to hide him (or wanted to make him look less Hitler as a decoy play, I dunno).

[Kirian]

Waiting on votes from ghost, Grujah, and Tables.

[Tables]

Oops, I forgot there was even a formal proposal made.

[Kirian]

This government fails by 1-8, with only ghost voting yes.

Hydrad is now the Presidential candidate as Round 6 begins.

[faust]

That is a harsh verdict. Not sure what it means.

[faust]

I'd specifically like to hear Grujah's reason for voting no.

[Hydrad]

thats kinda interesting ya. I didn't expect Grujah to say no there.

[Tables]

So... Arch and EgorK voted this down, and there's a good chance the third fascist did. Regardless of your thoughts on me/Egor, at least two fascists excluding Hitler voted this down. What does that mean? Saving face or bluffing? Perhaps it actually is a clean mission.

Even Grujah voted it down. Which means Grujah wasn't happy with it compared to other possible proposals this round. That actually gives me a bit of a town read on Grujah. I'd be happy for him to be the Chancellor next.

[Grujah]

I can make a better government on my turn for sure, thats the main reason.


If I only really want to nominate Hydrad or gkrieg (most likly GK), than voting for ghost / me doesn't really make sense.
If ghost is fascist (which ain't unlikely esp after a check on voting histories), and I suspected liberals are going to vote no, so its 4-4 if fascist all vote yes. I did not trust ghost enough to vote yes there.

[Grujah]

Though, this vote certanly is interesting. Either the team "is clear" or it is not + all fascists suspected it to fail so they all bluffed it. Certainly makes one rethink ghost's alignment.

[Tables]

Oh, right, Grujah has leadership later in the round. Mmm...

[Grujah]

Hydrad?

[gkrieg13]

I would prefer me.  But I would probably vote yes for Hydrad either as president or as chancellor

[Grujah]

No, it was a poke to get him to post, not a suggestion. He is up to candidate / discuss.

[gkrieg13]

No, it was a poke to get him to post, not a suggestion. He is up to candidate / discuss.

Ya I posted half of my post, then looked and saw he was the presidential candidate and wrote the second half

[ghostofmars]

I prefer a different partner than gkrieg. Hydrad and gkrieg both approved both fascist governments so I don't want them in the same government.

[Hydrad]

Hydrad?

ah sorry. I thought I should let people discuss a bit. but i guess thats not that importent when my mind is kinda made up already.

Nominate: Gkreig

[Tables]

Hmm... considering the alternative now is Grujah, this... sounds okay, maybe? Grujah, who are you thinking of nominating?

[ghostofmars]

bump

[Kirian]

Waiting on votes from Tables and Grujah

[faust]

Grujah should answer Tables' question too. I'm okay with Tables withholding his vote until he does.

[Grujah]

Hmm... considering the alternative now is Grujah, this... sounds okay, maybe? Grujah, who are you thinking of nominating?

gkrieg.

[Tables]

Interesting.

[Kirian]

ghostofmars and EgorK vote no; everyone else votes yes.  A new government is formed.

Hydrad draws three cards.

[Kirian]

gkrieg13 reveals a Liberal card.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hooray!

[Hydrad]

yay we did it!

I drew FFL so that was perfect.

[gkrieg13]

So we shuffle now?  So we actually have the potential to get liberals again?

[Grujah]

So, I am pretty much going to nominate either ADK or faust. Any thoughs?

[Grujah]

Egor, ghost, why nein?

[Kirian]

So we shuffle now?  So we actually have the potential to get liberals again?

There are still five cards in the deck, so no shuffling yet, sorry.

[gkrieg13]

So we shuffle now?  So we actually have the potential to get liberals again?

There are still five cards in the deck, so no shuffling yet, sorry.

I guess I could've looked on the first page. Thanks for being an active moderator!

[Kirian]

So we shuffle now?  So we actually have the potential to get liberals again?

There are still five cards in the deck, so no shuffling yet, sorry.

I guess I could've looked on the first page. Thanks for being an active moderator!

To be fair, at the time I hadn't yet had the chance to edit that post.

[faust]

So, I am pretty much going to nominate either ADK or faust. Any thoughs?

Well, I think as long as we have only two fascist laws enacted, I prefer to be president myself. I think I would nominate ADK. We can then install a nice chain of governments going faust/ADK -> gkrieg/Hydrad -> ADK/faust -> Hydrad/gkrieg. Things will get more difficult once a third fascist law is enacted.

[ghostofmars]

Egor, ghost, why nein?

There is still at least one undetected fascist out there and I had a better feeling about you than Hydrad.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So, I am pretty much going to nominate either ADK or faust. Any thoughs?

Well, I think as long as we have only two fascist laws enacted, I prefer to be president myself. I think I would nominate ADK. We can then install a nice chain of governments going faust/ADK -> gkrieg/Hydrad -> ADK/faust -> Hydrad/gkrieg. Things will get more difficult once a third fascist law is enacted.

I agree with this.

[Tables]

Yes, that sounds like a fairly solid plan to me. I still need to do a little more thinking about the votes and this result, but I think we have a strategy.

[ghostofmars]

yay we did it!

I drew FFL so that was perfect.

So Hydrad is now the best liberal read we have. There are only two possibilities left where he is fascist. Either he drew FLL and knew that liberal gkrieg would enact L or he is Hitler. Because we already have very little L laws left it is not very likely that he drew FLL, so that is not my primary concern. We don't have to worry about him being Hitler before the third fascist law is enacted.

I also have a similar read on gkrieg now. I think a non-Hitler fascist would have sacrificed himself to get the third fascist law.

So together with ADK who has a relatively liberal read, too, I think we found three liberals/Hitler. Furthermore, we know that one of Tables/EgorK is liberal. Hence, only if one of the three is Hitler, Grujah or Faust can be liberal.

[Grujah]

Furthermore, we know that one of Tables/EgorK is liberal.

I am not 100% convinced of this, in my mind there is chance that Tables is Hitler. Tho, it is more likely that one of faust/ADK/gkrieg/Hydrad is, and if we give complete faith in the chain it might backfire. It is fine for now until we get 3rd fascist, that's for sure.

[gkrieg13]

I support the plan until we get a third fascist. Then I guess we can figure out who we all trust. It's weird to me that everyone seems to support the plan in progress though

[Tables]

I support the plan until we get a third fascist. Then I guess we can figure out who we all trust. It's weird to me that everyone seems to support the plan in progress though

Eh, it doesn't seem that weird to me. Imagine if Arch just suddenly came bursting out saying it was a bad plan, faust is probably a hidden fascist, this will just lead to a fail before long - or really if anyone did anything similar. It'd look super scummy. Fascists can't really argue against the plan for that reason. On the other hand, there's a high chance an FFF draw will come up sooner or later - or if there does happen to be a hidden fascist somewhere they can pass FF when they have the oppertunity and not really look THAT bad because of the current odds - and as soon as that hits, Hitler becomes the thing we're interested in avoiding.

Also I kinda just realised something. There's only 6 liberal policies in the deck in total, right? And we need 5 of them played to win. If our next card play is an L, then the odds are gonna be really against us next time the deck shuffles - there'll be 3 L and 9 F left in the deck.

[EgorK]

Fascists can't really argue against the plan for that reason.

Good to know your reasoning. Or this is WIFOM, who knows?

[ghostofmars]

I support the plan until we get a third fascist. Then I guess we can figure out who we all trust. It's weird to me that everyone seems to support the plan in progress though

It won't matter much for you because you mistakenly label me as fascist, but I oppose the plan. At least one of Grujah/Faust is fascist and it is impossible that all four of you are liberal. There are so little liberal policies left that if we elect a fascist president a fascist law will be enacted. Unfortunately we have to elect a president, because the small amount of liberal policies in the deck means it is also unlikely that rejecting all governments will result in a liberal law.

[Grujah]

Nominate: ADK

Cuz faust is next, I'd rather have ADK.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Probably going to vote no on this, but I will do a reread before I vote, this might be an important one.

[Grujah]

Some info, that I think is valid goes in my favor:

ADK/faust/gkrieg/Hydrad all being L while probable at the moment, is a bit "too convinent" and not 100% sure. Also that chain can still continue even with me elected.
There needs to be at least 1 more L aside from those anyway
I cannot speak on your subjective read on me, so I can only ask you and anybody else to at least consider my voting record which I believe was pretty solid,
Also you get more info on me, and I am I think the only person who hasn't been investigated or on a government, so I the most unknown of all the players


It's not the end of the world if this doesn't pass, but I think it is in interest of liberals that it does

[gkrieg13]

I think I'd rather just have Faust as president for now, considering we need liberal policies to pass and he and ADK have a history of doing just that. You are on the list of people I trust, and I guess Faust could just pick me or Hydrad as his chancellor. I'll think about it.

[Grujah]

Anything happening?

[Kirian]

I have six votes so far.

Missing ADK, Arch, and Egor.

[Kirian]

I've poked ADK for a response.  All other votes are in.

[Kirian]

The government fails.

Yes: Grujah, ghostofmars
No:  Everyone else

faust is noe the Presidential candidate.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 8

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 2
Fascist Policies enacted: 2
Next Executive Power: Special Election
Recent Failed Governments: 1

Deck: 5 cards
Discard: 8 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 9 Fascist, 4 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

(Votes on Page 1)

[A Drowned Kernel]

I feel a little bit better about my lazy "no" vote now.

[gkrieg13]

I would vote yes on Faust/ADK

[ghostofmars]

I feel a little bit better about my lazy "no" vote now.

Unfortunately that lot of people disliked this government means that faust is likely fascist. If you believe that the rest of the chain (gkrieg, Hydrad, and you) are liberal then only one of faust/Grujah can be liberal (from your perspective). The fascists should stop an all-liberal chain, but what will happen (my prediction) is that faust will be approved by 6-7 people and then claim FFF arguing that so little liberal policies are left in the deck.

[Grujah]

That actually does make a lot sense.It also happened two turns ago, on ghost/Grujah, and if one of the people in the chain is fasicst, that means you are liberal (most likely), and that me/you was also an liberal team. Those are only two governments shot down that hard.

Now, it might be harder for somebody else to agree as I know I am liberal and was on both of those.

Also, as I said before i believe, if Hitler is on that chain he completely hit the jackpot.

[faust]

Well, I think I made it clear from the beginning that is is only reasonable to do this chain as long as no third fascist policy is enacted. Afterwards we have to do things differently.

Nominate: ADK

[faust]

Note that if you vote against this government, you effectively vote for Egor as president.

[Tables]

I feel a little bit better about my lazy "no" vote now.

Unfortunately that lot of people disliked this government means that faust is likely fascist. If you believe that the rest of the chain (gkrieg, Hydrad, and you) are liberal then only one of faust/Grujah can be liberal (from your perspective). The fascists should stop an all-liberal chain, but what will happen (my prediction) is that faust will be approved by 6-7 people and then claim FFF arguing that so little liberal policies are left in the deck.

This logic assumes all fascists are voting primarily to get scum onto missions and never to blend in. Guess what? Scum want to blend in, and sometimes that means voting no to scum missions (especially if they think they'll fail) and sometimes voting yes to missions that are all liberal. On top of that, you assume it's faust and not ADK who is likely scum (especially as faust had made it clear that he would be nominating ADK)? Why? This post is making me extremely suspicious right now.

[Grujah]

Hmm.. yeah, and Arch and EgorK both voted no on ADK faust, too..

[faust]

Am I correct in thinking that me drawing FLL would basically confirm Arch as scum?

[Grujah]

Am I correct in thinking that me drawing FLL would basically confirm Arch as scum?

How? Arch claimed FFF, dunno how drawing excess L makes him look guilty, shouldn't it make something who claimed extra Ls guilty? (like ADK or Tables)

[Grujah]

Note that if you vote against this government, you effectively vote for Egor as president.

If we vote no on that as well, who gets presidential power? Egor or nobody?

[Grujah]

In the hypothetical situation, of course.

[Grujah]

Also Egor and especially Arch are awfully quiet lately, which doesn't really shed good light on them, esp with all eyes on them..

[Kirian]

Note that if you vote against this government, you effectively vote for Egor as president.

If we vote no on that as well, who gets presidential power? Egor or nobody?

If a third government fails and the top card is Fascist, no one gets the special election power. However, the other part (electing Chancellor Hitler ends the game) does go into effect.

[Tables]

Am I correct in thinking that me drawing FLL would basically confirm Arch as scum?

How? Arch claimed FFF, dunno how drawing excess L makes him look guilty, shouldn't it make something who claimed extra Ls guilty? (like ADK or Tables)

Grujah is correct. If we have at least 7 claimed L draws things start to get interesting as we know at least one of them was a lie. Right now I think we have... (bolding played card each time)

Arch claimed FFF
I claimed FFL
ADK claimed LLL
Hydrad claimed FFL

So that means if everyone's claimes are correct, there is only 1 more L in the deck. However it's quite possible Arch lied about his draw and drew FFL - although there's still a reasonable chance he drew FFF anyway (especially if everyone else is telling the truth). However if you draw FLL then well that tells me personally that ADK is scum. Tells other people slightly less certain information of course, but it actually confirms Arch's draw (well almost certainly does anyway).

[ghostofmars]

This logic assumes all fascists are voting primarily to get scum onto missions and never to blend in. Guess what? Scum want to blend in, and sometimes that means voting no to scum missions (especially if they think they'll fail) and sometimes voting yes to missions that are all liberal. On top of that, you assume it's faust and not ADK who is likely scum (especially as faust had made it clear that he would be nominating ADK)? Why? This post is making me extremely suspicious right now.

As a fascist, you want to avoid raising suspicion, but we are also in a critical phase of the game. If Faust is liberal, there is a decent chance that we will have a third liberal law, so it seems like a huge gambit to take in this situation.

I still consider it a possibility that ADK is fascist, but I think the fascist team is Archetype + either you and Faust or EgorK and ADK. Hitler is then one of gkrieg and Hydrad.

Am I correct in thinking that me drawing FLL would basically confirm Arch as scum?

Arch and Hydrad might have lied and discarded a liberal, which would make it less likely to draw one.

Tables and ADK might have lied and had less liberal cards, so that it's more likely to draw a liberal.

Hence, if you claim FFF it's more likely that you, Arch, or Hydrad is fascist. If you claim FLL it's more likely that Tables or is ADK fascist.

[faust]

Am I correct in thinking that me drawing FLL would basically confirm Arch as scum?

How? Arch claimed FFF, dunno how drawing excess L makes him look guilty, shouldn't it make something who claimed extra Ls guilty? (like ADK or Tables)

Right... I got confused. Sorry about that.

[faust]

This game needs some deadlines.

[Kirian]

This game needs some deadlines.

Yeah, but it's effectively impossible to assign a "default" vote to someone.  If anyone has suggestions for making a deadline work in a future game, feel free to discuss.

Missing votes from Arch, ADK, and Egor.

[faust]

This game needs some deadlines.

Yeah, but it's effectively impossible to assign a "default" vote to someone.  If anyone has suggestions for making a deadline work in a future game, feel free to discuss.

Missing votes from Arch, ADK, and Egor.

People who miss multiple deadline get killed.

[Tables]

This game needs some deadlines.

Yeah, but it's effectively impossible to assign a "default" vote to someone.  If anyone has suggestions for making a deadline work in a future game, feel free to discuss.

Missing votes from Arch, ADK, and Egor.

People who miss multiple deadline get killed.

Vote: Yes

[A Drowned Kernel]

Sorry, I know I'm being terrible, I just keep forgetting about this game.

Vote yes, me and faust are liberals, this is a good government.

[Hydrad]

wanting action!

ACTION!

gogogo votes

[Kirian]

Sorry about the delay all.

Faust, Tables, gkrieg13, Grujah, Hydrad and A Drowned Kernel vote yes.
ghostofmars, EgorK, and Archetype vote no.

The government is formed!  PMs will go out shortly with cards.

[Kirian]

And again with the delays, what the hell, Kirian?

Anyway:  ADK reveals a Fascist card.

Executive Phase: Special Election:  Faust must now choose a new Presidential candidate, who may be any other player including ADK.  However, that Presidential candidate may not pick faust or ADK as their Chancellor candidate.

Important items:

(1) Since there have now been 3 Fascist policies, if Hitler is elected Chancellor in any future election, the Fascists will immediately win.  This includes the special election.

(2) If the special election forms a government and they reveal a Fascist card, the specially-elected government will get the Execution power.

(3) Assuming you don't immediately elect Hitler or kill Hitler, EgorK will be the candidate for the next election after the special election.

----

I will label this as "Round 8S" for ease of reference.

[Kirian]

Side Note:  There are fewer than two cards in the deck now, so the deck and discard piles are now reshuffled together.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 8S

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 2
Fascist Policies enacted: 3
Current Executive Power: Special Election
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 12 cards
Discard: 0 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 8 Fascist, 4 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[faust]

Well, this sucked. I got 3F. Now we need to figure out who Hitler is. I can choose a president, and it won't matter if the president is Hitler, so I think I should pick one of our "seems liberal, but could be Hitler" candidates. So I'm leaning gkrieg for this.

Tablesmight be a good choice for Chancellor, I believe he's unlikely to be Hitler. On the flip side of course, he is more likely to be fascist. What do you guys think? Also I understand that it will be harder to trust me now.

[ghostofmars]

[...], but what will happen (my prediction) is that faust will be approved by 6-7 people and then claim FFF arguing that so little liberal policies are left in the deck.

Just as I feared, we are now in the situation where any wrong election can cause us to lose the game.

So I'm leaning gkrieg for this.

I would agree with gkrieg as a president. For chancellor, he should pick either Tables or EgorK. I don't think either of them would have played such a gambit if they are Hitler. Personally, I would prefer EgorK over Tables.

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

[faust]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

[Grujah]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

Doesn't matter, discard gets shuffled.

Yeah, some of "liberals" seem like fine candidates, also I Tables as Chancellor is actually fine, gives us a bit more on faust too (as Tables investigated him).

What are your guys stances on me, btw, how much of you think I could be Hitler?

[Grujah]

Also Egor/Arch team seems WAY more likely than Tables to me at this point, esp. given another recent vote where they voted No against mostly everybody, without chiming in their opinion (which was obviously contrary to everybody) in. I mean, ghost voted Nein too, but at least he is giving us some reasons for it.

[gkrieg13]

Keep in mind that the next president gets to kill someone if a fascist policy is enacted

[faust]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

Doesn't matter, discard gets shuffled.

Yeah, some of "liberals" seem like fine candidates, also I Tables as Chancellor is actually fine, gives us a bit more on faust too (as Tables investigated him).

What are your guys stances on me, btw, how much of you think I could be Hitler?

Uh. Sucks that the discard gets shuffled, I hoped we'd get definite information about who lied.

[faust]

Well, I have little reason to believe anyone is or isn't Hitler. I guess Tables and Egor are less likely due to their interaction. In turn, so is Archetype. The rest, man, I don't know.

Electing Hitler for president and him getting the ability to shoot someone is better than having a fascist in power, right? Because Hitler does not know hwo his fellow fascists are.

[gkrieg13]

Well, I have little reason to believe anyone is or isn't Hitler. I guess Tables and Egor are less likely due to their interaction. In turn, so is Archetype. The rest, man, I don't know.

Electing Hitler for president and him getting the ability to shoot someone is better than having a fascist in power, right? Because Hitler does not know hwo his fellow fascists are.

Yes but the best would be a liberal president

[faust]

Some further thoughts on my choice:

gkrieg is a bad candidate in the sense that he is a potential candidate for today either way. By choosing him, I am effecively reducing the possible governments that can be formed to 2.

Okay, how about a survey? Everyone should answer these two questions:

1. If you become presidential candidate, who would you nominate as Chancellor?
2. If you become president and draw FFF, who would you shoot?

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

But I agree that I'm a bad choice for special election.

[gkrieg13]

Oops wrong quote

[ghostofmars]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

Seriously

You'd nominate a player that has a good chance of being Hitler and shoot me instead of one of the players that is actually responsible for a fascist law.

[ghostofmars]

PS, even though I'm probably not considered by Faust

Chancellor: EgorK
Shoot: Archetype

[Tables]

Well this is a sucky position. Reasonably good chance of it happening as well, which sucks. I also didn't realise the last two cards in the deck were discarded before immediately reshuffling which makes things even worse, since there's no information at all on those last two cards.

I don't think you will pick me as president (as you mention, me as Chancellor is a safer option from your point of view), but here's what I would do:

For Chancellor my natural choice would have been faust, of course, but it isn't an option. So... what are the choices?

gkrieg13: Mmm... play has been reasonably Liberal but nothing resounding. Could be Hitler.

Archetype: Very likely a generic fascist. Small chance of being Hitler.

ghostofmars: I feel like there's a decent chance he's the final fascist, or perhaps Hitler. I can't say he has my trust right now.

Hydrad: Similar to Gkrieg, although I trust him a bit more. Another potential Hitler though (ugh).

Grujah: Similar to ghost. It seems likely to me one of those two is the final fascist.

EgorK: Almost certainly not Hitler.

This is a very tough choice. On the one hand, if I were to intentionally elect a fascist, I could then kill him or the other fascist I know (currently leaning towards I would kill Arch for what it's worth). It would also minimise the chance of a fail Or I could even try and take a shot at... Gkrieg, Ghost, Hydrad or Grujah with a view to try and shoot Hitler and end the game. But that's a 1/4 or so shot, so I dunno. Probably I would go with the safe option and kill Arch or EgorK. The other option is to elect someone I think is liberal, but still risk that 1/4 chance. Of the options available to me, I think... Grujah might be the best bet there? I would probably then kill one of Gkrieg or Hydrad in this situation. The reason I would behave differently to above is simply, in this situation I would know one of the four likely Hitler options is not Hitler, so my odds of hitting Hitler are quite a bit better. Most likely right now I would lean towards Gkrieg, although I could be persuaded either way.

Okay, a lot of this is really just irrelevant thought process but it probably also details my thinking on people right now, so there's that. To sum up I think what I would do is:

Elect: Grujah
Kill: Gkrieg

Anyway just reading back over the last few posts, I do have a quick question: Does the special election count as one of our three to form a government? Either way, if it fails I would want Gkrieg forming the government since otherwise it's fascist all the way. And because Gkrieg has a shot at forming a government anyway I think I would probably prefer Hydrad as President, out of the options.

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

Seriously

You'd nominate a player that has a good chance of being Hitler and shoot me instead of one of the players that is actually responsible for a fascist law.

I have my strongest fascist read on you right now, but I need to remember why.  This game has gotten so slow.

I think we should shoot and try to hit a fascist.  Hitting a liberal is very bad.  Obviously hitting Hitler would be the best option, but I think hitting a liberal and giving fascists a 4/4 advantage would make it difficult to enact the last liberal policies, because they could just vote no on every government and take the chances that the top policies were fascist instead of liberal.  So we should be aiming to kill a fascist

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate hydrad if I could, I would shoot ghost, except...

Grujah, why did you vote no on me/Faust but yes on Faust/ me?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh wait, we win if we shoot Hitler. Maybe I'd shoot egor then.

[gkrieg13]

Oh wait, we win if we shoot Hitler. Maybe I'd shoot egor then.

Why do you think he is more likely to be hitler than ghost?

[faust]

PS, even though I'm probably not considered by Faust

Chancellor: EgorK
Shoot: Archetype

I try to keep an open mind. Definitely will reread the whole thread before making a final decision.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh wait, we win if we shoot Hitler. Maybe I'd shoot egor then.

Why do you think he is more likely to be hitler than ghost?

If egor is fascist and arch is his partner, then the first investigation could have been a way to signal to Hitler who his partners were.

[Kirian]

Does the special election count as one of our three to form a government?

Yes, it does.

[EgorK]

Nominating Tables as Chancellor has interesting consequences. If he would have choice, would he rather out himself as fascist or get strong town read but pass liberal law. Likely former. Unless he is actually hitler who decided to mix it up and get this "can be fascist, but unlikely hitler" read

[Hydrad]

yes the games moving again!

hmm If i was elected I'd probably go gkreig again. But as for who to shoot I'd probably shoot arch/tables/egork. one of those 3 as I still don't trust them. but I feel like they probably aren't hitler. So I guess the question is do we try to find hitler or try our best to hit a facist.

[Axxle]

This game needs some deadlines.

Yeah, but it's effectively impossible to assign a "default" vote to someone.  If anyone has suggestions for making a deadline work in a future game, feel free to discuss.

Missing votes from Arch, ADK, and Egor.

People who miss multiple deadline get killed.

/in to replace?

[ghostofmars]

yes the games moving again!

hmm If i was elected I'd probably go gkreig again. But as for who to shoot I'd probably shoot arch/tables/egork. one of those 3 as I still don't trust them. but I feel like they probably aren't hitler. So I guess the question is do we try to find hitler or try our best to hit a facist.

I think aiming for fascist is better. Keep in mind that it is very likely that if a fascist law is enacted the president is fascist too. While we have some relative good idea who are fascist players, Hitler and liberal look alike. Hence a fascist president can easily hide a liberal kill by 'I just wanted to kill Hitler.'

Can I also ask you to reconsider appointing gkrieg should you be elected? It is possible that he is Hitler and our No1 priority is not to elect Hitler chancellor. I agree with your assessment that Archetype/EgorK/Tables are unlikely to be Hitler so I'd appoint your best liberal read from these three.

Rule question: Could Faust appoint ADK by special election?

[Hydrad]

yes the games moving again!

hmm If i was elected I'd probably go gkreig again. But as for who to shoot I'd probably shoot arch/tables/egork. one of those 3 as I still don't trust them. but I feel like they probably aren't hitler. So I guess the question is do we try to find hitler or try our best to hit a facist.

I think aiming for fascist is better. Keep in mind that it is very likely that if a fascist law is enacted the president is fascist too. While we have some relative good idea who are fascist players, Hitler and liberal look alike. Hence a fascist president can easily hide a liberal kill by 'I just wanted to kill Hitler.'

Can I also ask you to reconsider appointing gkrieg should you be elected? It is possible that he is Hitler and our No1 priority is not to elect Hitler chancellor. I agree with your assessment that Archetype/EgorK/Tables are unlikely to be Hitler so I'd appoint your best liberal read from these three.

Rule question: Could Faust appoint ADK by special election?

but then I feel like I have a high chance of appointing a facist I feel like if I pick from them. And then while I won't be hitting hitler there will be a higher chance for more facist policies also. That just sounds like we start losing the long game. Maybe I'm just thinking about this the wrong way though. and I guess I would be the leader so I could just shoot them if they did a facist policy...

hmmm interesting.

[Kirian]

Rule question: Could Faust appoint ADK by special election?

Yes, assuming you mean make him Presidential candidate.

[Grujah]

@ADK IIRC, I voted no the first time around as I didn't consider faust clear just because Tables cleared him, as I though Tables was more likely to be F than Arch/Egor at the time. Second time I voted yes as you already enacted a L policy in the meantime.

@faust.

Nominate: I would nominate Tables. I find him less likely to be F than Arch/Egor, and less likely to be H than buys on train.
Kill: If I draw FFF, Arch or Egor, I don't care. I think it is better to kill a very likely F than to try to shoot a H and get a Liberal, as fascist have a majority in that case.

If I send FL to Tables and he choses F, of course, that changes a lot. 

[A Drowned Kernel]

@ADK IIRC, I voted no the first time around as I didn't consider faust clear just because Tables cleared him, as I though Tables was more likely to be F than Arch/Egor at the time. Second time I voted yes as you already enacted a L policy in the meantime.

@faust.

Nominate: I would nominate Tables. I find him less likely to be F than Arch/Egor, and less likely to be H than buys on train.
Kill: If I draw FFF, Arch or Egor, I don't care. I think it is better to kill a very likely F than to try to shoot a H and get a Liberal, as fascist have a majority in that case.

If I send FL to Tables and he choses F, of course, that changes a lot.

And how does the fact that I drew LLL factor into that?

[Grujah]

Ugh, I actually didn't factor that, damn.

Good point, doesn't say much about faust. He could have been forced to play an L and could have been forced to pass FF (or he could have chosen so), certanly none of those action were actually liberal.

Same goes for you, I guess... if you drew LLL and got passed FF, you didn't have much choice.

[Tables]

For what it's worth I believe ADK's claims. Mainly of course because I know faust is telling the truth, so I know at least that FFF was drawn, and well the number of L's more or less add up.

If I send FL to Tables and he choses F, of course, that changes a lot.

Thanks for the subtle coaching, boss! /s

Yeah regardless of who is chosen as president in this election, if they send FL and their chancellor plays F, I think it's pretty likely who the president will shoot (unless they have reasonable grounds to gun for Hitler at least). So actually, picking someone who is likely a fascist as Chancellor in this round is probably not really that bad, they can't play an F unless they're happy to put their head straight onto the chopping block.

[faust]

So actually, picking someone who is likely a fascist as Chancellor in this round is probably not really that bad.

I disagree. If we get to 4 enacted fascist policies with only 2 liberals, we are quite likely to draw one more FFF before the game ends, and then the fascists only need one more failed government to win.

[Tables]

So actually, picking someone who is likely a fascist as Chancellor in this round is probably not really that bad.

I disagree. If we get to 4 enacted fascist policies with only 2 liberals, we are quite likely to draw one more FFF before the game ends, and then the fascists only need one more failed government to win.

That's true... I was mostly thinking in terms of, we make a fascist die in this case, but yes it does put us in a precarious position in general.

[ghostofmars]

Our priorities have to be
1) Do not elect Hitler as chancellor (obviously).
2) Do not elect a fascist president, because he will likely enact a fascist law and kill a liberal.
3) Do not elect a fascist chancellor, because he may sacrifice himself to get the fourth fascist law.

Because of the way the game works 1 > 2 >> 3. So you should strongly prioritize choosing a non-Hitler chancellor that might be fascist over a liberal chancellor that might be Hitler. My estimate for our chances to win the game in the three different scenarios are 0%, 10%, and 40% for scenario 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

So for this reason I will not approve any government where neither Tables nor EgorK are chancellor. I might make an exception for Archetype (as chancellor), but I don't understand why anyone would appoint Archetype over EgorK.

My preferred governments would be gkrieg/Hydrad as president with Tables/EgorK as chancellor. I would also approve ADK or Grujah as president, as long as they pick one of Tables/EgorK.

[EgorK]

yes the games moving again!

hmm If i was elected I'd probably go gkreig again. But as for who to shoot I'd probably shoot arch/tables/egork. one of those 3 as I still don't trust them. but I feel like they probably aren't hitler. So I guess the question is do we try to find hitler or try our best to hit a facist.

I think aiming for fascist is better. Keep in mind that it is very likely that if a fascist law is enacted the president is fascist too. While we have some relative good idea who are fascist players, Hitler and liberal look alike. Hence a fascist president can easily hide a liberal kill by 'I just wanted to kill Hitler.'

Can I also ask you to reconsider appointing gkrieg should you be elected? It is possible that he is Hitler and our No1 priority is not to elect Hitler chancellor. I agree with your assessment that Archetype/EgorK/Tables are unlikely to be Hitler so I'd appoint your best liberal read from these three.

Rule question: Could Faust appoint ADK by special election?

but then I feel like I have a high chance of appointing a facist I feel like if I pick from them. And then while I won't be hitting hitler there will be a higher chance for more facist policies also. That just sounds like we start losing the long game. Maybe I'm just thinking about this the wrong way though. and I guess I would be the leader so I could just shoot them if they did a facist policy...

hmmm interesting.

If you are liberal yourself between others you get 50% chance to select fascist (with 12.5% chance to select Hitler) and 50% chance to select liberal. So barring strong reads among others chance is about the same, and we can resolve position here (well, between me and Tables, Arch can still be fascist, however unlikely it is)

[faust]

Well.

I don't like the Chancellor/kill choices of any of my preferred candidates (i.e. Hydrad/ADK/gkrieg). So I will consider handing the presidency to ghost or Grujah. But let me reread.

[faust]

So reread.

Round 1:

Well not much. Notably, gkrieg considers {Archetype, Tables, ADK} for nomination. We know that there is at least one fascist in this group, and gkrieg did not pick them. Fascists are actually more likely to nominate liberals I think. Minor scum points.

Nomination: gkrieg, ADK
Ja: gkrieg, ADK, Hydrad, Grujah
Nein: faust, ghost, Tables, Archetype, Egor

So if gkrieg is fascist, very likely other fascists supported him. That puts fascists in Hydrad/Grujah (ADK is not likely a partner as already stated). The fascists among {Tables, Archetype, Egor} vote against. Makes gkrieg seem liberal.

Round 2:

Archetype wants to nominate ghost, and notably ghost claims that a fascist president wants to nominate a liberal chancellor. WIFOM ensues.

Nomination: Archetype, ghost
Ja: Archetype, gkrieg, ADK, ghost, Hydrad, faust, Egor
Nein: Tables, Grujah

Massive amount of support seems to imply a fascist on board. Which is more likely Arch, because fascist president is much better than fascist chancellor. Fascist!Arch seems to imply liberal!ghost... but WIFOM. I think it rather unlikely that ghost is Hitler though.

Now discussion about who to investigate. ghost proposes ADK. Tables and gkrieg want me investigated.  Arch states he would be fine investigating ADK. ghost changes to wanting to investigate Egor. Then Arch chooses to investigate Egor. Well I don't know. In the Arch/Egor scumteam theory, it would be very ballsy for fascist!ghost to play this way. I don't really see it.

Round 3:

So general consensus seems to be that Egor should be in the next government. Notably, ADK does not want to nominate Egor. That seems somewhat towny.

Nomination: Tables, Egor
Ja: faust, Tables, Egor, Grujah, gkrieg, Hydrad, Archetype
Nein: ghost, ADK

Notably the first government here succeeds. I mean from a fascist perspective you wouldn't want to get yourself into a situation where the next president is certainly liberal. Which makes it seem as though there is a fascist among ADK/ghost/Hydrad so that there can still be a fascist president after Tables' government.

ADK has a theory that Egor is Hitler. ghost proposes to investigate him or ADK. Tables wants to investigate me, ghost argues against it.

Round 4:

ghost posts reads. Reads Grujah/ADK/gkrieg as liberal and me/Hydrad as fascist. Okay, now comes some outguessing the mod: Kirian comments that people may be confused about how many fascists there are. Which only makes sense if liberals posted that, because for sure fascists know how many partners they have. ADK did it last before the post. Makes me think that ADK is liberal.

Nomination: ADK, faust
Ja: ADK, faust, gkrieg, Hydrad, Tables
Nein: Egor, ghost, Archetype, Grujah

The pattern continues that Egor and Archetype vote the same way. Out of the Ja votes, Hydrad and gkrieg are notable. One of them might be fascist if ADK is. If ADK is liberal (which I think), then Arch and Egor both voting Nein is very suspicious.

Round 5:

Well well. Some probability talk and the ghost nominates Grujah.

Nomination: ghost, Grujah
Ja: ghost
Nein: everyone else

So interesting. First, fascist!ghost would probably nominate a liberal right? Would be dangerous for fascists then to vote this down since the only other option of getting a fascist-controlled government is Hydrad, who might not be fascist. In case of liberal!ghost, it's a very convenient way for the fascists to have that one fail since everyone and their moms thought ghost was fascist.

Round 6:

Hydrad quickly nominates. Well.

Nomination: Hydrad, gkrieg
Ja: Hydrad, gkrieg, faust, Archetype, Grujah, Tables, ADK
Nein: ghost, Egor

And we get a liberal card. Well that looks good. And bad for ghost to vote it down. Hydrad could have drawn FLL if Arch told the truth early on, so this is mainly looking good for gkrieg. Grujah votes for this over his own government, strange.

Round 7:

The rotation plan forms, Grujah still tries some nomination, it doesn't work.

Nomiation: Grujah, ADK
Ja: ghost, Grujah
Nein: ADK, faust, Egor, Archetype, Tables, gkrieg, Hydrad

So definitely fascist opposition. Which could simply be going with the flow. But if the fascists are going with rotation plan, they will know that it has to fail at some point. So there is a fascist, maybe Hitler, among this group.

Round 8:

Not a lot happening.

Nomination: faust, ADK
Ja: faust, Tables, gkrieg, Grujah, ADK, Hydrad
Nein: ghost, Egor, Archetype

So Egor and Arch trying to get Egor to be president? Probably. Also Arch has not posted anything since Round 4 or so. I think he may simply be resigned.
Ja:

[faust]

So gkrieg is my top liberal read still. ADK is a close second. I'm not hot about picking gkrieg since he's a candidate anyway. ADK may be liberal, but I don't exactly trust his judgment. This would bring me to Grujah is the next best option.

[faust]

Yep.

Make Grujah the next presidential candidate.

[Grujah]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Why don't you trust my judgement? I said I'd elect a liberal read of yours and that I'd kill the same person Grujah said he'd kill.

[EgorK]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

Out of me, Arch and Tables I like Tables the least. I like myself most (I am liberal) Arch next (if he is liberal, which is likely, it will clear me as well)

[faust]

Why don't you trust my judgement? I said I'd elect a liberal read of yours and that I'd kill the same person Grujah said he'd kill.

You chose Hydrad as Chancellor, who has a decent chance of being Hitler. Also it was not clear to me whether you'd shoot Egor or ghost.

[faust]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

Out of me, Arch and Tables I like Tables the least. I like myself most (I am liberal) Arch next (if he is liberal, which is likely, it will clear me as well)

What makes you think that Arch is liberal?

[Tables]

Gkrieg:
Nominate: Hydrad
Shoot: Ghost

Ghost:
Nominate: EgorK
Shoot: Archetype

Tables:
Nominate: Grujah
Kill: Gkrieg

ADK:
Nominate: Grujah
Kill: Ghost

Hydrad:
Nominate: Gkrieg
Kill: Arch/Tables/EgorK

Grujah:
Nominate: Tables
Kill: Arch/EgorK


I think this is everyone who posted? faust obviously couldn't, Arch and EgorK appear to be AWOL (which is a shame, I wanted to see who they claim they'd nominate and shoot, since it might be a clue towards Hitler).

[EgorK]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

Out of me, Arch and Tables I like Tables the least. I like myself most (I am liberal) Arch next (if he is liberal, which is likely, it will clear me as well)

What makes you think that Arch is liberal?

If he is not then both him and Tables are fascist, and it does not make sense unless Tables is Hitler

[Grujah]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

Out of me, Arch and Tables I like Tables the least. I like myself most (I am liberal) Arch next (if he is liberal, which is likely, it will clear me as well)

I would assume you don't like tables at all, as he is confirmed fascist to you. I am not considering you or Arch at all. I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

[EgorK]

Great.

Now, I know I said I'd choose Tables, but I have to consider the option that you are fascist and choose me exactly cuz I said I'd choose Tables. So, give me some times do decide.

Out of me, Arch and Tables I like Tables the least. I like myself most (I am liberal) Arch next (if he is liberal, which is likely, it will clear me as well)

I would assume you don't like tables at all, as he is confirmed fascist to you. I am not considering you or Arch at all. I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

Well, at least you could kill him right away after he would choose F out of FL. If you are L, out of 5 remaining players there are likely 2L and 3F. Likely one of F is Hitler. I do not know, if you do not look at me or Arch I do not like town chances here anyway

[faust]

Arcetype has posted literally nothing for like half of the game. How should we be able to trust him?

[gkrieg13]

Arcetype has posted literally nothing for like half of the game. How should we be able to trust him?

this

[gkrieg13]

I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

I don't understand this.  Why does he seem least likely to be hitler out of the 4 people "on train"?  I would be fine with myself, Hydrad, or Tables as chancellor, but would prefer myself.

[Hydrad]

I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

I don't understand this.  Why does he seem least likely to be hitler out of the 4 people "on train"?  I would be fine with myself, Hydrad, or Tables as chancellor, but would prefer myself.

It's because I'm so towny!

I'd mainly prefer me or gkrieg right now. I still don't like making egork/tables in it as even if we pick the fascist one and shoot them we have a highish chance of just losing to bad luck in my mind. Although maybe I'm to worried. I haven't actually done the math at all so who knows.

[Grujah]

Arcetype has posted literally nothing for like half of the game. How should we be able to trust him?

This x100.

[faust]

I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

I don't understand this.  Why does he seem least likely to be hitler out of the 4 people "on train"?  I would be fine with myself, Hydrad, or Tables as chancellor, but would prefer myself.

Why is this a problem? You proposed Hydrad as Chancellor yourself, didn't you? So I assume you agree with Grujah on this.

[gkrieg13]

I might choose Hydrad, he seems like least likely to be H out of 4 people "on train". Him or Tables, I need to read stuff.

I don't understand this.  Why does he seem least likely to be hitler out of the 4 people "on train"?  I would be fine with myself, Hydrad, or Tables as chancellor, but would prefer myself.

Why is this a problem? You proposed Hydrad as Chancellor yourself, didn't you? So I assume you agree with Grujah on this.

I didn't understand the words. Language problem not idea problem.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm very iffy on Grujah. I don't like that he switched from no to yes on (practically) the same government with no real new info.

[Grujah]

I seriously just remembered that you guys passed a L and it completely didn't cross my mind that it was LLL. It is dumb, but really that's the whole story.

[Kirian]

Arcetype has posted literally nothing for like half of the game. How should we be able to trust him?

To be clear, he has voted each round, but indeed he has not posted in the thread since Round 4.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

[EgorK]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

Sorry, it does not make any sense to me. Tables play then is very strange - isolating himself with 1L and 1F is bad for fascists. On the other hand if Arch is L, his play make perfect sense

[A Drowned Kernel]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

Sorry, it does not make any sense to me. Tables play then is very strange - isolating himself with 1L and 1F is bad for fascists. On the other hand if Arch is L, his play make perfect sense

I'm sorry but how does not posting at all for half the game make sense for a liberal?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh tables play. I mean I guess you have to say that.

[EgorK]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

Sorry, it does not make any sense to me. Tables play then is very strange - isolating himself with 1L and 1F is bad for fascists. On the other hand if Arch is L, his play make perfect sense

I'm sorry but how does not posting at all for half the game make sense for a liberal?

I can say by my own experience that it is pretty depressing to be isolated like I was

[ghostofmars]

So here is a thought I recently had when looking at the voting pattern. 3 governments so far have been approved by 7 players (Archetype/ghost, Tables/EgorK, and Hydrad/gkrieg), I'd claim that in each of those there is at least one fascist. That leaves one fascist for faust/ADK/Grujah or a government could have been formed by two fascists.

Let's look into the options in detail
Archetype: He might be Hitler that got unlucky and drew FFF. He is probably a regular fascist that more or less resigned after getting his job done (enact a fascist law). If he is liberal, he probably cost us the game by being so inactive. Furthermore, we would need to explain why the fascists approved a liberal president, when the next player in line (Tables) is fascist (a liberal Archetype requires fascist!Tables).

ghost: Apparently I'm bad at communicating, because the consensus is that I'm fascist. At least two players consider me more fascist than Archetype, even though he enacted a fascist law. For me fascist!Archetype and fascist!ghost only makes sense if the plan was to get some credit for enacting a liberal law. I doubt that it is a good strategy, but most of the rest of the players seem to have a different idea how to play this game anyway.

Tables: It is near impossible that both he and EgorK are fascist. At that point they were ahead, so it seems ridiculous they would stage a fight compromising both. For the same reason, I doubt that either of them is Hitler. The main question is why the fascists approved Tables if he is liberal. So I maintain that liberal!Tables would imply that ADK and/or me are fascist.

EgorK: If he is fascist, he made a very dumb move that outed both Archetype and himself and will possibly get him shot. I agree that his posts appear scummy, for example his recent defense of Archetype or his small number of posts after Tables accusations. But it may be that he just suffered from being the less active and less articulate player.

Hydrad: He enacted a liberal law, so it is likely that he is not a regular fascist (though he might have drawn FLL and not have a choice). It is possible that he is Hitler, so I would avoid putting him on the government. Imho, his voting patterns are strange, but that might be his way of playing.

gkrieg: He enacted a liberal law at a point, where I guess a regular fascist would have sacrificed to get a fascist law in play, so probably not a regular fascist. Similar to Hydrad, he may be Hitler playing liberal. Because he didn't get approved in round 1, I have a better opinion of him than of Hydrad.

Of the remaining players, I expect the fascist rather among faust/ADK, because they were approved whereas Grujah was not involved in any government, yet. It may be that Grujah is Hitler though. Which of faust/ADK is fascist depends on the alignment of Tables.

Summarizing my reads
Regular fascist: Archetype > Tables >> faust > EgorK >> ADK > Grujah > Hydrad > gkrieg
Hitler: Hydrad > gkrieg >> Grujah > faust > ADK >> Archetype >> Tables > EgorK

@Grujah: So while I would prefer EgorK to Tables as chancellor, in the interest of proposing a government that actually gets a majority, I'd ask you to appoint Tables.

[ghostofmars]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

Sorry, it does not make any sense to me. Tables play then is very strange - isolating himself with 1L and 1F is bad for fascists. On the other hand if Arch is L, his play make perfect sense

I disagree, perhaps fascist!Tables saw that fascist!Archetype was getting blamed more than me (the chancellor); at least at that point. Hence, he decided it is better to take liberal!you with him than to get all the blame on him. Furthermore, he removed an investigated-liberal player from the circle, so imho it makes perfect sense that fascist!Tables plays the way he did. Of course, it makes also sense with liberal!Archetype, but Archetype's play makes little sense as liberal.

[Tables]

So yeah, arch=fascistftp://

Sorry, it does not make any sense to me. Tables play then is very strange - isolating himself with 1L and 1F is bad for fascists. On the other hand if Arch is L, his play make perfect sense

I disagree, perhaps fascist!Tables saw that fascist!Archetype was getting blamed more than me (the chancellor); at least at that point. Hence, he decided it is better to take liberal!you with him than to get all the blame on him. Furthermore, he removed an investigated-liberal player from the circle, so imho it makes perfect sense that fascist!Tables plays the way he did. Of course, it makes also sense with liberal!Archetype, but Archetype's play makes little sense as liberal.

Fascist me + Arch makes it a bit of a strange play, though, right? It immediately sets me at loggerheads with Arch for the rest of the game. Fascist me + Liberal Arch makes it a dangerous play, I'd be outing myself to two liberal players, and while nobody knows for sure that they're telling the truth, with two people who know they're right it would force me into a rough position for the rest of the game. Not to mention it would make it very unlikely for me to ever be Chancellor or President again. I'm not saying either of the above are impossible, but both are very risky plays if I were fascist. Just a little slip on my part as I pushed myself under fire, and I'd not only out myself but pretty close to clear two people in the process.

[Grujah]

@ghost - faust is pretty much high on facist list for you, and Tables very low on Hitler list. Did you take in cosideration that faust wants Tables chancellor so he choice me?

[Grujah]

As for my "Hydrad is the lowest", for sure he is to me lower than gkrieg who gave me serious Hitler vibes at start, when he was so liberalish. If Faust or ADK were fascist they stuck me more likely to be regular ones, that's how I got there.

[faust]

@ghost - faust is pretty much high on facist list for you, and Tables very low on Hitler list. Did you take in cosideration that faust wants Tables chancellor so he choice me?

Question: If Tables was Hitler and me fascist...

...why does Tables put himself in the Egor situation in the first place? Seems like very bad play.
...would Tables fake a liberal result on me? Does he not need all the liberal cred he can get, and would get that from outing me as fascist?

[Grujah]

@ghost - faust is pretty much high on facist list for you, and Tables very low on Hitler list. Did you take in cosideration that faust wants Tables chancellor so he choice me?

...would Tables fake a liberal result on me? Does he not need all the liberal cred he can get, and would get that from outing me as fascist?

True this. Esp as he was somewhat suspected due to Egor situation. I mean, I see some way in which he could clear you, but probably not likely.

I have in my head some convulted way why Tables puts himself into Egor situation: He does so, Egor recognizes it, does incriminates himself in another way, we believe Tables is a good lib. Not very likely, I admit.

I'll name my chancellor before I go to sleep (it is 10PM now), so if anybody want to chime in, feel free.

[EgorK]

A lot of WIFOM here

I am more and more convinced that Tables is Hitler, while Arch may be fascist (or not). Basically any review of Secret Hitler mentions that Hitler should play as staunch liberal. But look how after 3 F laws everyone and their mothers want to appoint someone who may be fascist, but not Hitler at least. So Tables get pretty successfully in this exact category.

So do not nominate Tables. Please

[faust]

A lot of WIFOM here

I am more and more convinced that Tables is Hitler, while Arch may be fascist (or not). Basically any review of Secret Hitler mentions that Hitler should play as staunch liberal. But look how after 3 F laws everyone and their mothers want to appoint someone who may be fascist, but not Hitler at least. So Tables get pretty successfully in this exact category.

So do not nominate Tables. Please

Of course you know perfectly well that this is a circular argument. We consider Tables for Chancellor, therefore he played in a way that made us consider him as Chancellor. You could make this very argument against any candidate that is put forward.

[Grujah]

I nominate Tables.

[Kirian]

Send in your votes, then.

[Hydrad]

it will go egork and then gkrieg if this fails right?

[ghostofmars]

EgorK and gkrieg, could you post your shadow cabinets?

gkrieg, please consider other options than Hydrad, but if you don't, could you make your case for Hydrad not being Hitler? I would prefer you over Grujah as president, but I don't want Hydrad as chancellor.

Here is why I think that Tables is not Hitler:
If he was Hitler, he would not have known EgorK's and Archetype's alignment, so blaming both of them would be a very risky move. He possibly sidelined three fascists in that case, all of this for the chance we vote for him when 3 fascist laws are enacted. And at the moment he chose it was not clear that we choose him over EgorK and it is still not clear whether we choose him at all.

[Tables]

it will go egork and then gkrieg if this fails right?

Yeah.

I'm going to be limited access this weekend.

[gkrieg13]

Sorry I'll look at this more this weekend.  I like Hydrad as a candidate still, but I'll come up with other options.  I would probably go with faust if the grujah government goes through at this point.

[EgorK]

Arch do not make much sense as F, but even less as Hitler, so he would be my choice

[gkrieg13]

After looking back on what has happened, I think I would nominate Tables.  He seems more liberal than EgorK/Archetype, and if he passes a fascist law, I can shoot EgorK, which would either out Tables as fascist, or EgorK as fascist.

[Tables]

After looking back on what has happened, I think I would nominate Tables.  He seems more liberal than EgorK/Archetype, and if he passes a fascist law, I can shoot EgorK, which would either out Tables as fascist, or EgorK as fascist.

[gkrieg13]

After looking back on what has happened, I think I would nominate Tables.  He seems more liberal than EgorK/Archetype, and if he passes a fascist law, I can shoot EgorK, which would either out Tables as fascist, or EgorK as fascist.

Oh ya, I should just shoot you in that situation. 

[ghostofmars]

Also the alignment of the player shot is only revealed if it is Hitler.

[gkrieg13]

Also the alignment of the player shot is only revealed if it is Hitler.

That makes my plan not work now, doesn't it.  Well I still think Tables would be a good chancellor

[Grujah]

So, vote yes? 

[Kirian]

Just need Hydrad's vote now.

[Hydrad]

ohhohoho

I have the power!

ok i'm voting now...

[Kirian]

Grujah, Tables, faust, and ghost vote Ja; everyone else votes Nein.  No government forms.

EgorK is now the Presidential candidate.

[Kirian]

NOTE:  Because they were the most recent successful government, neither faust nor ADK are eligible for the Chancellor candidacy.  This might have been unclear.

And of course, a reminder that the game ends if Hitler becomes Chancellor.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmmm.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would guess that means that none of those four are Hitler.

[faust]

I would guess that means that none of those four are Hitler.

What's the reasoning here?

[faust]

Okay, so nein votes... Egor, gkrieg are obvious. Hydrad... maybe hoping to become Chancellor himself? Why did you vote this down, Hydrad? I think ADK just prefers gkrieg to Grujah? And Archetype, well, he's lurky fascist guy, so.

[Tables]

Interesting result. I can understand people voting it down. Arch and Egor were basically auto no's, Gkrieg as well maybe, that leaves Hydrad and ADK who didn't trust it. That's fair enough. I'm more interested in why Ghost voted it up actually.

[ghostofmars]

From the last posts it was not clear to me whether gkrieg would take you as chancellor or if he might switch back to Hydrad.

I feared to come in a situation where I'd have to decide between gkrieg/Hydrad and no government.

[EgorK]

Nominate: Arch

I'll repeat reasons - from here it is unlikely Arch is Fascist and it is improbable Arch is Hitler

[Hydrad]

Okay, so nein votes... Egor, gkrieg are obvious. Hydrad... maybe hoping to become Chancellor himself? Why did you vote this down, Hydrad?

because the options for me seem to be either gkrieg/tables or gkrieg/me

Both of which I like more then grujah/tables.

[Grujah]

Interesting result. I can understand people voting it down. Arch and Egor were basically auto no's, Gkrieg as well maybe, that leaves Hydrad and ADK who didn't trust it. That's fair enough. I'm more interested in why Ghost voted it up actually.

Kinda proves me to me that you are not Hitler, and are very very likely to be liberal. Also makes faust very very likely liberal as well.

You guys are the ones I trust the most now.

[Grujah]

Okay, so nein votes... Egor, gkrieg are obvious. Hydrad... maybe hoping to become Chancellor himself? Why did you vote this down, Hydrad?

because the options for me seem to be either gkrieg/tables or gkrieg/me

Both of which I like more then grujah/tables.

I still believe that choose the "best of three" is bad. By that logic, now I (and also Tables and faust and ghost) need to shoot down gkrieg goverment cuz that is not my first choice.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would guess that means that none of those four are Hitler.

I'm surprised by some of those no votes and trying to determine what it means.

[ghostofmars]

Just to clarify because you misread how this method is intended. In every round you consider the available options and choose the best.

So prior to this round the options were
You/Tables; EgorK/Archetype; gkrieg/Tables or Hydrad; no government
Now that you/Tables is not an option anymore you revaluate the options and choose the best one again.

So Hydrad states that he liked both gkrieg options better, so he votes this one down. I prefer gkrieg/Tables but fear that I might have to decide between Hydrad and no government, so I voted yes. But now I will approve gkrieg/Tables, if possible.

[Grujah]

I still think it is bad line of thinking, but w/e.

I'd approve Tables chancellor 100%. It is pretty obvious he is not Hitler. Unless you think this exact composition is 3 fascists + Hitler:
Grujah, Tables, faust, and ghost
you should see it too. 4 fascist votes + me - who suggested the candidacy - would elect a Hitler easily.


I do not think I can vote yes on Hydrad, tho.

[Grujah]

Also for same reason Me + Tables is very possibly a liberal team (one of us at least).

[gkrieg13]

Ya with that vote I think it makes a lot of sense for me to propose Tables as my candidate.

[faust]

Anything happening?

There's replacement available, mind you. If you feel like you cannot keep up with the game, it's fine to leave.

[Kirian]

Tables announced he was LA.  Need votes from him and Arch.

[Tables]

Do you really need to wait for my vote? Anyway whoops my bad, saw the thread and thought to myself, yeah better vote and uh then never did.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Anything happening?

There's replacement available, mind you. If you feel like you cannot keep up with the game, it's fine to leave.

I'm almost there, honestly. I'll make one more effort to be active and engaged. My vote on the egor/arch candidacy is a no-brainer, gkrieg/tables is better than a random flip.

[Grujah]

Yeah, we can CO as well in sitautions like these.

[Kirian]

EgorK votes for himself and, um... that's all the yes votes.

gkrieg13 is now the Presidential candidate.

If this vote fails to form a government, we flip the top card.  If that happens and a Fascist card is revealed, gkrieg would not carry out an execution; only an elected government gets the power.

[gkrieg13]

nominate: Tables

[EgorK]

Good job fascist. Tables plays spectacular game, everyone seems to think that only scum would lurk (why scum would lurk here of all games?). 3F now would kill town completely (if Arch or me is killed fascist can just shut down any goverment, chances for liberals to win are minuscule). Grrrr

[Tables]

Instant nomination, no discussion Gkrieg? I mean it's fine for me, although I'm not 100% I can trust you, but... well in the choice between Gkrieg (more likely than not liberal) or a random card flip (more likely than not fascist) I'll take Gkrieg any day.

[Grujah]

Good job fascist. Tables plays spectacular game, everyone seems to think that only scum would lurk (why scum would lurk here of all games?). 3F now would kill town completely (if Arch or me is killed fascist can just shut down any goverment, chances for liberals to win are minuscule). Grrrr

Scum would lurk as less info = worse for Ls. Why is Arch lurking this heavily, that I do not know.

[ghostofmars]

Btw, did Archetype seriously vote down a government that contains two liberals (according to his claims)? While I don't know if that tells us something about EgorK, I'm now even more convinced than before that Archetype is fascist.

[faust]

Btw, did Archetype seriously vote down a government that contains two liberals (according to his claims)? While I don't know if that tells us something about EgorK, I'm now even more convinced than before that Archetype is fascist.

That is a good observation.

[faust]

And Egor's insistence on Arch being liberal in the face of this... not good.

[gkrieg13]

Instant nomination, no discussion Gkrieg? I mean it's fine for me, although I'm not 100% I can trust you, but... well in the choice between Gkrieg (more likely than not liberal) or a random card flip (more likely than not fascist) I'll take Gkrieg any day.

Sorry I just really want to keep this game moving.

[Kirian]

Waiting on votes from faust, Arch, ADK.

[EgorK]

Well, if Arch is fascist, then Tables is Hitler, that's the only plausible scenario it seems. Considering you are likely to put him up as chancellor - we likely lost already

[faust]

Sorry, I sent Kirian a message stating that I would vote yes on this government before the nomination, but it seems he needed a vote afterwards.

[A Drowned Kernel]

At work will vote tonight

[Kirian]

Time out for a moment!  The moderator has made a mistake.  Mea culpa.

Archetype voted Yes in the previous round, not No.  This may or may not change your feelings about the current vote.

In order to make sure everything is solid, please resend any votes you have sent for Round 10.

My apologies for the confusion.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Feeling inspired to vote in the thread, arch?

[A Drowned Kernel]

By vote I mean post.

[gkrieg13]

By vote I mean post.

voting would be fine as well

[gkrieg13]

Feeling inspired to vote in the thread, arch?

When I read this I immediately thought what this situation would look like if we were playing IRL at a table.  Each time around, there would be someone who doesn't say anything.  Then, people would start talking about that person, about their alignment and what it means that they aren't saying anything.  Then you ask him this question.  How does he respond?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Feeling inspired to vote in the thread, arch?

When I read this I immediately thought what this situation would look like if we were playing IRL at a table.  Each time around, there would be someone who doesn't say anything.  Then, people would start talking about that person, about their alignment and what it means that they aren't saying anything.  Then you ask him this question.  How does he respond?

That's up to him.

[Archetype]

Well, it seems like basically everyone believes that Tables is good here which would make me scum. It makes it very difficult to want to stay active when a) my opinions are likely to get brushed aside and b) the only person who would choose me in their government is EgorK


I've also been very busy IRL and so haven't been able to spend as much time on the forums in general. I've mentioned to Kirian that I would be fine being replaced before, but got no response...

Tables is scum and am guessing Faust and/or ADK is too since another FFF draw is so unlikely. Ghost's votes also seem suspicious.

[faust]

Tables is scum and am guessing Faust and/or ADK is too since another FFF draw is so unlikely. Ghost's votes also seem suspicious.

Oh, at least do your homework. If we were to believe your claim, then at the time I drew FFF there were 5 cards left, one of which was liberal. The chance to draw FFF is 40%.

[EgorK]

Well, ok. That makes Tables being Hitler less likely. Good

[Kirian]

Arch, ADK and EgorK vote no; gkrieg13 is now President.

Sending cards shortly, but then I'm off to bed, so I likely won't post until after 10:00 PST (13:00 forum time).  Apologies for tomorrow's delay.

[Kirian]

gkrieg13 discards a card; by CO, Tables reveals a Fascist card.

Gkrieg, as President, you must execute someone.

[Hydrad]

So what happened...

[Tables]

Got passed FF. Not sure what that means. Maybe Gkrieg is fascist and will just shoot a liberal, maybe he's a liberal and got a bad draw, heck maybe he thinks he knows who Hitler is and wants to gun for him.

Most likely it's the first, but we'll see what Gkrieg has to say I guess.

[EgorK]

Got passed FF. Not sure what that means. Maybe Gkrieg is fascist and will just shoot a liberal, maybe he's a liberal and got a bad draw, heck maybe he thinks he knows who Hitler is and wants to gun for him.

Most likely it's the first, but we'll see what Gkrieg has to say I guess.

Or, you know, may be you are fascist

[gkrieg13]

It wasn't anything crazy.  I just drew FFF and had no choice in what I passed.  Unfortunately this doesn't solve the EgorK/Tables problem like I hoped it would.

I think Tables reaction is more on the liberal side though.  I think a fascist would've been more likely to claim I was fascist, whereas a liberal would look to give me the benefit of the doubt?  I'll have to think about it more.  Right now I think I don't want to shoot Tables, because I don't have a strong enough read on him and he can't be hitler.

[ghostofmars]

Two things:
1) ADK, why did you vote against this government?

2) Regarding who to shoot. From your statements so far, I suppose you consider one of the following Archetype/EgorK/me. I don't think there is a reason to shoot EgorK. If he is fascist, the Archetype is, too, but it is possible that only Archetype is fascist and EgorK is not. Imho, it is also more likely that Archetype is Hitler than EgorK, unless EgorK is playing a extreme gambit.
Now to decide between me and Archetype, I think the only possibility you should consider is that what would happen if one of us is liberal. If both of us are liberal, we lose the game. If both of us are fascist, either of us is a good kill. However, I'd argue that if Archetype is liberal, we've lost the game anyway. He is so inactive and nobody except EgorK trusts him. If you kill me, you effectively silence the only active player that plays 'devil's advocate'.

I think Tables reaction is more on the liberal side though.  I think a fascist would've been more likely to claim I was fascist, whereas a liberal would look to give me the benefit of the doubt?  I'll have to think about it more.  Right now I think I don't want to shoot Tables, because I don't have a strong enough read on him and he can't be hitler.

This argument assumes that you are liberal, of which we are a bit less certain, now.

These are the players responsible for a fascist law so far.
Archetype (chance for FFF 25%, chance for FFL 50%)
Tables/EgorK (at least one is definitely fascist)
faust (chance for FFF 100%/40%/10%, chance for FFL 0%/60%/60%)*
gkrieg (chance for FFF 25%, chance for FFL 51%)

*depending whether 0/1/2 liberal laws were left in the deck. 0 means that Archetype of Hydrad lied, 2 means that ADK or Tables lied, 1 means that either two players lied or all told the truth.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I submitted my vote PM with a typo, I meant to vote yes. But I'm very worried about the number of people who voted yes.

[A Drowned Kernel]

But I suppose didn't just shoot someone means that's he's either Hitler or liberal, since killing a liberal here means that the fascists pretty much just straight up win, right?

[Hydrad]

I submitted my vote PM with a typo, I meant to vote yes. But I'm very worried about the number of people who voted yes.

Well it was the third one. So unless people wanted to flip a card up it was pretty good one to vote yes for even if you didn't like it. Unless you thought tables was hurler then voting no makes a bunch of sense. If one was fascist then it's kinda a toss up I guess. Actually it's really only if gkrieg was fascist I think. As if tables was he would of jut been shot if it wasn't FF

[faust]

I submitted my vote PM with a typo, I meant to vote yes. But I'm very worried about the number of people who voted yes.

It was the last possible government... voting no would be unwise, no? Unless you have very serious doubts.

PPE: ninja'd

[faust]

The chance of drawing FFF here are around 30%. gkrieg is definitely much more suspicious now. In fact, it will be interesting to see which people voted down Grujah/Tables but voted up gkrieg/Tables. That was Hydrad (and ADK, well if you consider his vote here as "yes").

So Hydrad, please explain your reasoning for voting the way you did.

[faust]

Also I prefer shooting Egor over shooting Archetype by a lot. I believe Hitler is way more likely to play the way Egor does than he is to play like Arch.

[Hydrad]

The chance of drawing FFF here are around 30%. gkrieg is definitely much more suspicious now. In fact, it will be interesting to see which people voted down Grujah/Tables but voted up gkrieg/Tables. That was Hydrad (and ADK, well if you consider his vote here as "yes").

So Hydrad, please explain your reasoning for voting the way you did.

There is 2 reasons. One is he picked L when I gave him FL

The other is he almost picked me in his government. And I liked that idea.

[gkrieg13]

I don't think I'll shoot Arch.  He is very unlikely to be hitler at this point.  I think shooting EgorK would be best at this point.  ghostofmars's last post seemed more liberal to me.

[Hydrad]

wait do we even know if when the person dies what alignment they are? Or do we get no info on it.

Also i'm guessing theres not a don't shoot option either.

[Hydrad]

but ya I think I would still pick tables/egork.

its annoying though that you got FF for tables since you can't tell if hes facist or liberal :/

[Kirian]

Well, ok. That makes Tables being Hitler less likely. Good

Since I didn't formally say it:

Tables was elected Chancellor, and was not Hitler.  Otherwise you wouldn't be discussing an execution...

[A Drowned Kernel]

I say shoot egor.

[ghostofmars]

Wait a minute, you all think that Hitler!EgorK would immediately play a fascist card after he had just been cleared by Archetype?
I already doubt that a fascist would play like that, but as Hitler that seems even more unlikely. Archetype could be Hitler and just have been unlucky to draw FFF. I don't think he is Hitler, but if you shoot one of Tables/EgorK you have a 50% chance of hitting the wrong guy and losing the game.
I'm a bit suspicious that so many push for a EgorK lynch over Archetype.

[EgorK]

The chance of drawing FFF here are around 30%. gkrieg is definitely much more suspicious now. In fact, it will be interesting to see which people voted down Grujah/Tables but voted up gkrieg/Tables. That was Hydrad (and ADK, well if you consider his vote here as "yes").

So Hydrad, please explain your reasoning for voting the way you did.

If you do believe Table you should only consider probability ratio between FFF and FFL, not absolute probability of FFF. But you are likely F, so good job manipulating people here

[EgorK]

Wait a minute, you all think that Hitler!EgorK would immediately play a fascist card after he had just been cleared by Archetype?
I already doubt that a fascist would play like that, but as Hitler that seems even more unlikely. Archetype could be Hitler and just have been unlucky to draw FFF. I don't think he is Hitler, but if you shoot one of Tables/EgorK you have a 50% chance of hitting the wrong guy and losing the game.
I'm a bit suspicious that so many push for a EgorK lynch over Archetype.

I double that Tables play make much sense if Arch is Hitler though. Look, only plausible explanation of it all so far is that Tables is F. Why would I basically put me and Arch out of the game if we are both F (and if I am F Arch obviously are) right away? Even if we'd take "L" Table with us?

[EgorK]

Calling it now: Tables, faust and ADK are fascists. Who is Hitler - that's another question

[faust]

Wait a minute, you all think that Hitler!EgorK would immediately play a fascist card after he had just been cleared by Archetype?
I already doubt that a fascist would play like that, but as Hitler that seems even more unlikely. Archetype could be Hitler and just have been unlucky to draw FFF. I don't think he is Hitler, but if you shoot one of Tables/EgorK you have a 50% chance of hitting the wrong guy and losing the game.
I'm a bit suspicious that so many push for a EgorK lynch over Archetype.

I think Egor messed up. If Archetype was Hitler, he would feel more inclined to participate.

[faust]

The chance of drawing FFF here are around 30%. gkrieg is definitely much more suspicious now. In fact, it will be interesting to see which people voted down Grujah/Tables but voted up gkrieg/Tables. That was Hydrad (and ADK, well if you consider his vote here as "yes").

So Hydrad, please explain your reasoning for voting the way you did.

If you do believe Table you should only consider probability ratio between FFF and FFL, not absolute probability of FFF. But you are likely F, so good job manipulating people here

You're right. Assuming first 2 cards were FF (I am aware that there has been some discussion recently about whether this is the correct way to calculate this), there's a 40% chance to draw L.

[ghostofmars]

I think Egor messed up. If Archetype was Hitler, he would feel more inclined to participate.

I don't think Archetype is Hitler, but I don't think EgorK is Hitler either. And given the choice between an inactive player that must be fascist if EgorK is fascist and a player that might be liberal even if Archetype is fascist and is active I'd kill the former.
I would already have a hard time understanding his actions if EgorK was fascist. As Hitler his actions seem like an incredible gambit.

[Grujah]

Calling it now: Tables, faust and ADK are fascists. Who is Hitler - that's another question

so you believe gkrieg drew FFF?

[faust]

I think Egor messed up. If Archetype was Hitler, he would feel more inclined to participate.

I don't think Archetype is Hitler, but I don't think EgorK is Hitler either. And given the choice between an inactive player that must be fascist if EgorK is fascist and a player that might be liberal even if Archetype is fascist and is active I'd kill the former.
I would already have a hard time understanding his actions if EgorK was fascist. As Hitler his actions seem like an incredible gambit.

I guess at this point I'm just willing to bet the game on Tables being liberal. We are on the verge of losing and have to make some choices that may be risky.

[faust]

This also correlates witht the fact that Tables is a presidential candidate today. So if I'm willing to support him as president, I may as well go all in.

[Grujah]

Yeah, I'd support a Tables goverment most likely.  Like, if he chooses me or faust.

[gkrieg13]

I will shoot later tonight. I'm shooting among tables/egork tonight. We know that one of them is fascist. Right now I will probably shoot Egork because he has a possibility to be hitler and has acted more like a fascist.

[EgorK]

Calling it now: Tables, faust and ADK are fascists. Who is Hitler - that's another question

so you believe gkrieg drew FFF?

Well, given gkrieg performance as chancellor it is unlikely he is "plain" fascist. He can be Hitler that had drawn FFL though

[EgorK]

I will shoot later tonight. I'm shooting among tables/egork tonight. We know that one of them is fascist. Right now I will probably shoot Egork because he has a possibility to be hitler and has acted more like a fascist.

Can you say why Hitler would select F out of FL right after he was confirmed liberal?

[EgorK]

Guys, give me scenario where my play would be reasonable as F or H. Because I can see none as either.

[faust]

I will shoot later tonight. I'm shooting among tables/egork tonight. We know that one of them is fascist. Right now I will probably shoot Egork because he has a possibility to be hitler and has acted more like a fascist.

Can you say why Hitler would select F out of FL right after he was confirmed liberal?

To make Tables look guilty? Isn't that easy?

[Grujah]

I will shoot later tonight. I'm shooting among tables/egork tonight. We know that one of them is fascist. Right now I will probably shoot Egork because he has a possibility to be hitler and has acted more like a fascist.

Can you say why Hitler would select F out of FL right after he was confirmed liberal?

Basically any review of Secret Hitler mentions that Hitler should play as staunch liberal. But look how after 3 F laws everyone and their mothers want to appoint someone who may be fascist, but not Hitler at least.

You wrote that. 

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also Hitler! Egork might have thought that tables was fascist and would cover for him.

[Tables]

Although Arch is strictly speaking more likely to shoot a fascist from everyone else's PoV I support shooting EgorK more.  He's vocal, and I do agree there's a chance he's Hitler, maybe he tried to do a weird play to look like not Hitler which backfired. My other choice for who to shoot would probably be picking between Ghost, Grujah and Hydrad, I think those are the three other most likely Hitlers. Of those, I think... Ghost seems most likely to be Hitler, but that's a bit of a gut reading honestly. Just I feel like the fascists I know have generally seemed to skirt around talking about Ghost when possible.

[EgorK]

I can see me doing this, but not with tugging Arch along simultaneously. Cost/benefit is just not there

[gkrieg13]

execute: EgorK

[A Drowned Kernel]

Well here's hoping.

[Kirian]

EgorK is not Hitler.  You do not learn his faction.

Archetype is now the Presidential candidate.

[Hydrad]

Well here's hoping.

Hopes crushed

[Hydrad]

so at this point we have to hope he was still facist at least right? Or we just lose?

[gkrieg13]

so at this point we have to hope he was still facist at least right? Or we just lose?

Pretty much. If he was liberal, we are in a lot of trouble.

[ghostofmars]

Well now I can only hope that your read on the Tables/EgorK situation is right and mine was wrong.

so at this point we have to hope he was still facist at least right? Or we just lose?

I agree. We are now in the scenario where we have to assume Tables is liberal because we've lost otherwise anyway. At least that makes the current election phase simple. Vote down whoever Archetype proposes then approve Tables/Faust.

Only next round will be difficult because we have to figure out whom to appoint, as neither Tables nor Faust are an option.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'd prefer Tables/me over Tables/faust but that's obviously just me.

[Hydrad]

I'd prefer Tables/me over Tables/faust but that's obviously just me.

I'd prefer Tables/me...

[A Drowned Kernel]

Also how do people feel about me/faust?

[gkrieg13]

Also how do people feel about me/faust?

I would vote ja for that.

[faust]

Also how do people feel about me/faust?

No way. Tables is as good as confirmed liberal now (because if he's not liberal, we just lose). If Tables' government doesn't go through for some reason, of course I will vote this up. But the government really should go through.

[faust]

And since Tabels is confirmed liberal, by extension so am I.

[faust]

We have had >50% of all people post by now. If fascists had the majority, one would assume they'd just coordinate openly to get Hitler on board. So here's hoping that wemade the right choice.

[faust]

Actually, makes make an overall "what-we-know" (or should assume) chart:

Tables is liberal
faust is liberal
gkrieg is liberal (because a fascist could have forced a win with the execution. If he would be Hitler, his fellow fascists could have claimed to give him the right target)
Archetype is fascist

Thus, there is 1 fascist and Hitler among: ghost, Hydrad, Grujah

[faust]

Proposed further game plan:

We elect a Tables/me government. Chances of getting FFF should be very slim.
The next government has whichever one out of Hydrad/ghost/Grujah we find most trustwrothy + gkrieg. The president confirms beforehand that he will shoot among Hydrad/ghost/Grujah if a fascist law is enacted.
Next government is me/Tables, then Tables/gkrieg, then {Hydrad/ghost/Grujah}/me and so on.

[faust]

And I forgot ADK. He also belongs to the Hydrad/Grujah/ghost group.

[Grujah]

So this is a "if we killed a liberal we are screwed anyway, so we will just assume that we killed a fascist?"

I can stand behind that.

[ghostofmars]

I agree more or less with what Faust said. But I wouldn't exclude the possibility that gkrieg is Hitler.

Also Grujah as president is not possible after Tables, but ADK is. I would actually prefer to skip ADK, so that Faust/Tables can be the third government.

[Grujah]

I agree more or less with what Faust said. But I wouldn't exclude the possibility that gkrieg is Hitler.

Also Grujah as president is not possible after Tables, but ADK is. I would actually prefer to skip ADK, so that Faust/Tables can be the third government.

Would he really kill a liberal even if Hitler? I doubt that.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Hmm, ok, I'm on board.

[Archetype]

Nominate: Grujah

He's really my only town read, but this probably won't go through and we're pretty much screwed anyways with one Liberal dead.

[Kirian]

Need ADK and Hydrad.

[Kirian]

Archetype votes for himself, but no one else does.

Tables is now the Presidential candidate.

[Tables]

Nominate: faust

I don't really see any other choice for me here.

[Kirian]

Need votes from faust and ADK

[faust]

Sorry, I just sent mine. Exciting stuff.

[Kirian]

And this time, the vote goes through almost unanimously, with only Archetype voting No.

Cards are drawn...

[Kirian]

Tables discards a card by CO.  Faust reveals a fifth Fascist card.

Tables now executes someone.

[Grujah]

Well..

[Kirian]

It's well past midnight in Airstrip One, so I suspect we won't hear much from Tables until he wakes up.

[gkrieg13]

Uh oh. I think we just lost 

[A Drowned Kernel]

It's possible. Although the fact that faust wasn't Hitler does give me some hope.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I mean, if Tables is fascist then we lost when Egor was shot.

[gkrieg13]

I mean, if Tables is fascist then we lost when Egor was shot.

true

[Tables]

Execute faust

GG

[Tables]

Now we just vote down every proposal until it gets to the next fascist, who can nominate either Hitler or really any other fascist (there's at most two L's left in the deck), and we win.

[Tables]

...Oh, and my apologies to EgorK for being the victim of my crazy plot.

[ghostofmars]

Congratulations to Tables, gkrieg, Archetype and whoever the remaining fascist is.

It's a sad game for me where I tried to convince everyone that Tables was fascist and as a result was considered fascist myself.

[Grujah]

It's a sad game for me where I tried to convince everyone that Tables was fascist and as a result was considered fascist myself.

But he was so cuddley

[Archetype]

Wooooo!

[A Drowned Kernel]

Bleah.

[gkrieg13]

But I want to get nominated!

[Hydrad]

But I want to get nominated!

Don't worry. I can do it!

[gkrieg13]

But I want to get nominated!

Don't worry. I can do it!

Yay!

[ghostofmars]

I would like to nominate Tables as MVP. He managed to make most liberals think he was one of them and by pushing for investigating faust he made all of us think they were in the same team.

[gkrieg13]

We still don't know who all the fascists were

[EgorK]

...Oh, and my apologies to EgorK for being the victim of my crazy plot.

It's game and you play fantastically. I had problems with free time in the crucial moment, and can't turn the tide afterwards

Faust being liberal boggles my mind though

[Tables]

The real question is... who WAS Hitler, anyway?

Congratulations to Tables, gkrieg, Archetype and whoever the remaining fascist is.

It's a sad game for me where I tried to convince everyone that Tables was fascist and as a result was considered fascist myself.

Yeah, parts of this game sorta just fell into my hands. I'm not entirely sure how it happened.

[Kirian]

As pointed out by Tables, the endgame is a foregone conclusion.  With two liberals killed, the fascists can openly declare themselves and collude to get Hitler elected Chancellor.  The fascists win.

gkrieg13 was Hitler.

Tables, Archetype, and Hydrad were the vanilla fascists.

And now I'm going to stop with the red, as the game is over.

The one thing that stuck out for me here was this quote:

Summarizing my reads
Regular fascist: Archetype > Tables >> faust > EgorK >> ADK > Grujah > Hydrad > gkrieg
Hitler: Hydrad > gkrieg >> Grujah > faust > ADK >> Archetype >> Tables > EgorK

Other than reading Hydrad as Hitler, this was basically spot-on.  But Tables getting you all to think ghost was fascist meant this comment went almost entirely unregarded, when it might otherwise have saved the liberals the game.

I do think the deck is stacked against the liberals on average, just by the basics of the game, but especially with an odd number of players--with an even number of players, the fascists can never get an outright majority, though with a 50/50 split they can vote everything down and hope for good luck from the deck.  In addition, having Hitler -> Fascist -> Fascist as the first three seats allowed them to spread a ton of early FUD.  Well, maybe not gkrieg, who played thoroughly liberal to the end.

GG all.

[gkrieg13]

gg all.

I honestly thought EgorK was fascist, and thought Hydrad was liberal.

[Tables]

I do want to ask Gkrieg, how did you react to my post where I claimed false info about what you passed me? This one here:

Got passed FF. Not sure what that means. Maybe Gkrieg is fascist and will just shoot a liberal, maybe he's a liberal and got a bad draw, heck maybe he thinks he knows who Hitler is and wants to gun for him.

Most likely it's the first, but we'll see what Gkrieg has to say I guess.

I have to admit I was tempted to just outright claim, hey Gkrieg, shoot Faust, at this point, and then voting everything down, but I ran the numbers and our odds of winning by doing that were only about 83% or so (although higher if Hydrad got himself elected). And well I knew that the worst case scenario was everyone realised my later post suggesting who to shoot was uh me actually telling Gkrieg what to so (since he still knew basically nothing for certain); if this happened we could just revert to the above strategy anyway.

[gkrieg13]

I do want to ask Gkrieg, how did you react to my post where I claimed false info about what you passed me? This one here:

Got passed FF. Not sure what that means. Maybe Gkrieg is fascist and will just shoot a liberal, maybe he's a liberal and got a bad draw, heck maybe he thinks he knows who Hitler is and wants to gun for him.

Most likely it's the first, but we'll see what Gkrieg has to say I guess.

I have to admit I was tempted to just outright claim, hey Gkrieg, shoot Faust, at this point, and then voting everything down, but I ran the numbers and our odds of winning by doing that were only about 83% or so (although higher if Hydrad got himself elected). And well I knew that the worst case scenario was everyone realised my later post suggesting who to shoot was uh me actually telling Gkrieg what to so (since he still knew basically nothing for certain); if this happened we could just revert to the above strategy anyway.

I actually thought about this for a long time.  I had two choices, out you as fascist, which would clear Egor, but maybe make it likely I could get elected as chancellor, or go along with it.  I think going along with it was the correct choice, because it caused people to not overthink the next couple of decisions, which won us the game.

It still caught me totally off-guard because I was sure you were the liberal one in you/EgorK

[Hydrad]

Gkrieg. Just wondering. From your eyes who was the fascist team?

[ghostofmars]

Summarizing my reads
Regular fascist: Archetype > Tables >> faust > EgorK >> ADK > Grujah > Hydrad > gkrieg
Hitler: Hydrad > gkrieg >> Grujah > faust > ADK >> Archetype >> Tables > EgorK

Other than reading Hydrad as Hitler, this was basically spot-on.  But Tables getting you all to think ghost was fascist meant this comment went almost entirely unregarded, when it might otherwise have saved the liberals the game.

It's a bit of an overstatement that I was "spot-on". I would still have elected Hydrad as president, who could have enacted the fourth fascist law and executed a liberal. I made two significant mistakes (other that I somehow made everyone convinced I'm fascist): i) I was to set on one of ADK/faust being fascist; ii) I missed the opportunity that both Hydrad and gkrieg are fascist. Somehow I thought a fascist would have enacted a fascist law.
And btw, Tables at least pretended to consider me as liberal. The fascist!ghost trend came from faust, ADK, and gkrieg.

I do think the deck is stacked against the liberals on average, just by the basics of the game, but especially with an odd number of players--with an even number of players, the fascists can never get an outright majority, though with a 50/50 split they can vote everything down and hope for good luck from the deck.  In addition, having Hitler -> Fascist -> Fascist as the first three seats allowed them to spread a ton of early FUD.  Well, maybe not gkrieg, who played thoroughly liberal to the end.

We had really bad luck to draw LLL and FFF for our only all liberal government.

[gkrieg13]

I would say the fascist team was Archetype, EgorK, and ghostofmars.  Those were my last reads before I knew that Tables was fascist, which dramatically changed my reads.

[Tables]

And btw, Tables at least pretended to consider me as liberal. The fascist!ghost trend came from faust, ADK, and gkrieg.

There was a reasonable portion of the midgame where I wanted to try and make you look as Hitler-ish as possible in the case I was outed (which I considered was very likely). People going back and rereading what I'd said would spot, hey Tables was defending Ghost at a weird point, maybe that means something. Of course things are never really so black and white, and it ended up not being important after all.

I actually thought about this for a long time.  I had two choices, out you as fascist, which would clear Egor, but maybe make it likely I could get elected as chancellor, or go along with it.  I think going along with it was the correct choice, because it caused people to not overthink the next couple of decisions, which won us the game.

It still caught me totally off-guard because I was sure you were the liberal one in you/EgorK

The best deceptions have to fool even your greatest allies. Or something like that. But yeah I agree that of the two choices you had you probably made the right one. With what I'd claimed, you contradicting me I feel would have seemed very fishy and forced you to execute me pretty much, and that would be no good for us.

[gkrieg13]

And btw, Tables at least pretended to consider me as liberal. The fascist!ghost trend came from faust, ADK, and gkrieg.

There was a reasonable portion of the midgame where I wanted to try and make you look as Hitler-ish as possible in the case I was outed (which I considered was very likely). People going back and rereading what I'd said would spot, hey Tables was defending Ghost at a weird point, maybe that means something. Of course things are never really so black and white, and it ended up not being important after all.

I actually thought about this for a long time.  I had two choices, out you as fascist, which would clear Egor, but maybe make it likely I could get elected as chancellor, or go along with it.  I think going along with it was the correct choice, because it caused people to not overthink the next couple of decisions, which won us the game.

It still caught me totally off-guard because I was sure you were the liberal one in you/EgorK

The best deceptions have to fool even your greatest allies. Or something like that. But yeah I agree that of the two choices you had you probably made the right one. With what I'd claimed, you contradicting me I feel would have seemed very fishy and forced you to execute me pretty much, and that would be no good for us.

Ya.  There were a few obvious liberals to me.  Faust was obviously liberal because of the way he attacked me at the beginning.  I can't think of the others right now.

[gkrieg13]

I will say I was surprised when so many people shot down my first government.

[Tables]

I will say I was surprised when so many people shot down my first government.

With no information to go on, and 1/3rd of people being fascists, voting down is better than voting up in general. It gets a little more information onto the board, even if that information is just who proposes what missions.

[Tables]

So hey I do have one more question (probably easiest answered by Kirian): What did everyone draw each round from the laws deck?

[chairs]

WTB Secret Hitler II, now with 100% more Chairs.

[ghostofmars]

I would play again.

[Archetype]

So hey I do have one more question (probably easiest answered by Kirian): What did everyone draw each round from the laws deck?

I legit drew FFF that first round.

[Kirian]

So hey I do have one more question (probably easiest answered by Kirian): What did everyone draw each round from the laws deck?

I'll try to post it sometime later tonight.

[Kirian]

OK, obviously later tonight didn't happen; we had company in from out of town.  So, here's the spreadsheet I used:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zxAM1O8dfk2zxRdD757HTWs9_N-Y2UgiVgj5GaZUxyw/edit?usp=sharing

The numbers you see are int(1000*rand()), used for shuffling everything.  Note that the Hitleriness coefficient is in millihitlers.

Some interesting thoughts/observations:

Only Tables ever discarded liberal cards when a choice was available--twice as President, once as Chancellor.

There were only two completely fascist governments, both of which had Hitler--and only one enacted a fascist law.

That first shuffle was really bad for the liberals, in particular drawing LLL.

[faust]

I would play again.

[gkrieg13]

I would play again.

[Hydrad]

I would play again.

[faust]

So, lots of people willing to play anyone want to mod? I would but I have a mafia game starting out and I think modding two games at once would be too much.

[Tables]

I don't especially want to play again, so I would be happy to mod the second game.

[ghostofmars]

So will there be a second game? I think with the players that expressed interest here and those in the original sign up thread, we would have enough to do a game.

[chairs]

As soon as Tables puts up the signup sheet.

[Tables]

Oh, right. Yeah if people are happy for me to host one, I'll get on to that. Just give me a day or two I guess (bit busy today)