Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[gkrieg13]

I do agree that tables not choosing a government before the current vote goes through is fishy.  He could always change it later, but it would be nice to know what the two alternatives are.  I guess the upside is flipping a card now is probably the best odds we'll have for card flipping all game.

[Kirian]

Can you please replace signup order with play order in post #1, it is confusing the hell out of me. (plus I have to search for play order all the time).

Sorry about that.  I'll actually remove things from the initial post and copy the "Status" post every so often.

A note on COs and the Legislative phase

The legislative phase has some quirks.  If FFF or LLL is drawn, the outcome is obvious.  However, I can't just post that or the entire draw is obvious.  I will still PM and wait for a response (even though I'll know the outcome of the response) for draw of FFF/LLL or for a pass of FF/LL.  If COs have been sent, I will announce those COs along with the results, so everyone has an understanding of the speed.

Vote outcomes in a couple minutes.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 2

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 0
Next Executive Power: Investigation

Deck: 17 cards
Discard: 0 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 11 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[Kirian]

Round 2 Voting

A new government is formed with Archetype as President and ghostofmars as Chancellor.

Yes:  Archetype, gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
No:  Tables, Grujah

Archetype, PM incoming with your three cards.

[Kirian]

Archetype draws three cards and discards one.

Ghostofmars discards a card by CO.

The revealed card is a Fascist policy.

Archetype must now investigate another player.

[ghostofmars]

Archetype must now investigate another player.

Archetype, I ask you not to do that immediately. We may suggest whom you should investigate first.

Independent of that is Archetype now my top fascist read. Of course it is possible that he drew 3 fascist laws which would be very bad. At least in that case the investigate power would be in the hand of a liberal.

Unfortunately the voting pattern suggests to me that Archetype is a fascist. I would have expected a tight vote that might have passed 5-4 or perhaps 6-3 but 7-2 seems an unusual accumulation of votes on one player.

[Kirian]

Since it was apparently unclear, you may (and perhaps should) spend time discussing before Arch makes his choice.

[Tables]

So, yeah, I had a post typed out, and then Kirian came and psuedo locked the thread just before I sent it. Sigh. Well, now I'm not proposal 3 I might as well say what I was holding back.

I actually had a fairly decent read on Arch up until this point as well as ADK, but not enough to trust him and ghost in power. So... I didn't want to say I liked Arch on a team, since uh I'd rather have been on a team myself obviously. Besides, the Arch read was a lot weaker than ADK. Now, there's a very high chance one of Arch or ghost or both is a facist - I might actually just run some numbers on those probabilities later - and that erodes my trust somewhat. Which kinda makes me feel a little more justified on not saying anything, but his mission got voted through anyway.

So, regarding the votes. 7/9 people voted yes to Arch/ghost. That means at least three facists out of four voted it through (2/4 to an outsider's perspective, 3/4 to me). And that means at least three facists preferred this mission to one being lead by me and/or wanted ghost to be the final proposal next time. The only no votes were me (obviously), and Grujah. That makes me feel slightly more confident in Grujah, just based on these numbers, but only very slightly.

For the investigation, I would like someone who can be president next round to be investigated. Preferably the most likely liberal player, because good reads >>> bad reads in this game. Ghost is out of the question for hopefully obvious reasons. I would prefer to get investigated myself; it doesn't get me as much information (although does get me some) but hopefully helps everyone else out a lot. I wouldn't be opposed to ADK being investigated though.

Finally, right now I've been suspicious of faust for a while. There's two main posts which have caused this in the past - #1 is http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14491.msg556730#msg556730 and #2 is http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14491.msg556326#msg556326 (those are my replies to him, his post is quoted there). Looking back, that first one maybe shouldn't have made me as suspicious as it did at the time, since uh his explanation of it was pretty clear that he just worded things badly. The second though I still find really suspicious. Like he was just aiming to throw suspicion onto ADK.

[gkrieg13]

So now this gives us a lot to look over.  I am surprised so many people were against the group I gave but weren't super against this government.  Now I guess I understand.

I was going to vote yes to pretty much any government at this point, because I think this is like the first mission in resistance, where you can gauge a lot of what is going on based on the first mission.

Even if Tables were fascist, he should have voted no, so that is not an alignment tell either way.

A bit late for that, alas.

gkrieg, ADK, Grujah, and Hydrad vote yes.  I'm on mobile so not typing out the nos.

By 5-4, no government is formed.  Archetype is now the Presidential candidate.

Round 2 Voting

A new government is formed with Archetype as President and ghostofmars as Chancellor.

Yes:  Archetype, gkrieg13, A Drowned Kernel, ghostofmars, Hydrad, faust, EgorK
No:  Tables, Grujah

Archetype, PM incoming with your three cards.

So voted yes both times is: gkrieg13, Hydrad, ADK
no both times: Tables
Yes to mine, no to Arch: Grujah
No to mine, yes to Arch: faust, EgorK, ghostofmars, Archetype

I would say that faust and EgorK along with ghostofmars and Archetype are my strongest fascist reads right now.

[gkrieg13]

Also have a strong liberal read on ADK right now

[ghostofmars]

If 5 Liberal policies are enacted (of 6 in the deck), the Liberals win.

Deck and discard contain (total): 11 Fascist, 7 Liberal

Btw, there is still a mismatch in the number of liberal policies.

Regarding the game: I think we should slow the discussion a bit down until Archetype has claimed which cards he drew. My argument is that a liberal will always tell the truth, but a fascist may want to wait a bit to see how the consensus forms.

[Archetype]

So, I did draw 3 F. Which kinda sucks, but also gives us some good liberal density.

I don't feel too scummy about ghost, but agree that the vote pattern was a little strange and does put some more suspicion on him. On the other hand, it makes me feel better about Tables. If such a large number of people would vote for me, they must be concerned about Tables being President. Grujah's vote seems sort of meh and doesn't really give me a read on him.

I have a fairly good idea for who I'd like to investigate, but welcome input for sure. I won't say who I'll be investigating to gather some more reactions, but can do it early if people would like.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 2

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 1
Next Executive Power: Investigation

Deck: 14 cards
Discard: 2 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 10 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'd like to hear more from EgorK, I didn't realize until just now that he was in this game.

I'm getting a fascist vibe from faust as well.

[Hydrad]

yay we got somewhere!

so the options we have is.

Arch is a fasicst and got rid of a liberal.

Arch and ghost are fasists and could of gotten rid of 2 liberals.

both are town. and got unlucky. (what are the odds of 3 facist things happening?)

ghost is fasicst and arch got unlucky. This seems like a lowish chance. I'm willing to think ghost is still pretty towny.

[Kirian]

Probability of drawing FFF is 11/17 *10/16 * 9/15 = ~24%.  So not that rare.

[Hydrad]

huh 24% is much higher then I expected actually.

makes me feel a bit better about arch.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

[faust]

Now we know that ghost didn't lie, that's great. Would fascist!Arch nominate a fellow fascist? I think not. A government with a liberal on it has a higher chance of being elected and Arch still has all the power. So I guess I'm still decently townie on ghost.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

[faust]

As far as investigations go I think I support Egor or gkrieg. Hydrad and ADk are possible too.

[Hydrad]

I have no idea who to pick. but I like trusting faust usually.

[Tables]

Probability of drawing FFF is 11/17 *10/16 * 9/15 = ~24%.  So not that rare.

Given that an F was played, we know LLL wasn't drawn, and that means the odds become P(FFF)/(1-P(LLL)) which just so happens to work out as exactly 25% - 11*10*9/(17*16*15) / (1 - (6*5*4/(17*16*15))) = 1/4. Scumread on Kirian for posting incomplete maths

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something.

This sounds scummy No, it's not because you're 'doing something' (how vague do you want to be anyway?). It's because you're making a number of posts that seem suspicious, as I've already said. Complaining that people have fascist reads on you and implying those people are being dumb or whatever just comes across as a psuedo-OMGUS. It's certainly not making me trust you any more.

Your post count isn't the issue here. High post count =/= high useful information count. You have a lot of one liner posts. Combined that's probably not much more content you've posted than someone like me, who tends to mostly make longer posts at once.

[faust]

Your post count isn't the issue here. High post count =/= high useful information count. You have a lot of one liner posts. Combined that's probably not much more content you've posted than someone like me, who tends to mostly make longer posts at once.

Well, I agree that I don't have more content than you... but the two of us are basically the main contributors, while people like Hydrad or Egor do nothing at all. I have taken a pretty firm stance early on, I take full responibility for my vote. That is not scummy.

You point out two posts of mine as a basis for your read, one even with a caveat that it isn't acutally scummy, it was just a misunderstanding. The other one is this:

So ADK, huh? I looked back on his posts, and this seems bad:

I don't think I would vote for a government with Archetype on it right now, just based on this post. How is math scummy?

If gkrieg nominates me I'll vote yes, otherwise I guess I'll have to wait until I see what tables is doing.

First, it is bad reasoning because Arch was only making a joke. But what's more, if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

You seem to think that it was too little to go on to form a strong opinion. Well yes. I don't have strong opinions because it is too early. But I believe in making my opinions sound stronger than they are because I think that promotes discussion and help move the game forward. Anyone who played mafia with me can confirm this.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you. I understand how this play could be perceived as scummy by people who are new to my playstyle... it happens all the time when I play with new people IRL. But others like ADK and gkrieg, they have played with me, they should know better.

I am really trying hard to redeem myself here in the eyes of the liberals (which I think you are) because having me as some sort of "universal scum read" is just so bad... assuming random government elections, the chances for an all-liberal government are 27.8%. If you take me out of the picture because everyone thinks I'm a fascist, that number drops to 21.4% - it suddenly becomes 23% less likely that we are successful (I assume that number won't be affected much by assuming non-randomness). So it is really vital that this does not happen.