Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[faust]

gkrieg is totes fascist by the way.

[Archetype]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

Would you be more "surprised" if I lied and said fascist?

[gkrieg13]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

I haven't been nearly as lurky as other people.  Why single me out?

[faust]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

I haven't been nearly as lurky as other people.  Why single me out?

Because the other don't try to discourage activity like you do.

[faust]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

Would you be more "surprised" if I lied and said fascist?

Well, yes.

[EgorK]

Actually both I and tables did similar mistake in assumptions, namely we calculated from the viewpoint of spectator. Liberal or hitler apriori should be 5/8, fascist - 3/8. Which makes Arch little more scummy. I'll update all calculations when I'll be at computer

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 3

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 0
Fascist Policies enacted: 1
Next Executive Power: Investigation (#2)
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 14 cards
Discard: 2 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 10 Fascist, 6 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

Tables is now the Presidential candidate.

[faust]

Actually both I and tables did similar mistake in assumptions, namely we calculated from the viewpoint of spectator. Liberal or hitler apriori should be 5/8, fascist - 3/8. Which makes Arch little more scummy. I'll update all calculations when I'll be at computer

For a fascist, the probability is either exact 1 or exactly 0...

[faust]

And don't bother with all the numbers... we get it; Arch is scummy. Whether he is 62% scum or 67% scum doesn't really matter.

[Tables]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3. But yes, I calculated from the viewpoint of an outsider, it doesn't change the numbers too much except making Arch more scummy, as EgorK says.

Don't have time right now to reply to much, but I do agree that discouraging activity is scummy. Liberals want as much activity as possible (that's actually relevant). And the more you post, the more likely you are to slip up and say something bad which is another reason activity is good - we want the fascists to slip up and say something bad, while liberals are less able to uh 'scumslip' for hopefully obvious reasons.

[faust]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

[gkrieg13]

I wasn't discouraging activity. I was just saying that I bet one of the super active players are fascist. Faust likes to control the game either way, so his activity isn't a scum tell. That's why I was suspecting tables.

[Kirian]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

Forum Games are far more skippable than you think.

[Tables]

Some of us like doing numbers though faust :3.

Yes, I think about 90-93% of f.ds posters like doing numbers.

Forum Games are far more skippable than you think.

Vote: Faust
Vote: Kirian

I wasn't discouraging activity. I was just saying that I bet one of the super active players are fascist. Faust likes to control the game either way, so his activity isn't a scum tell. That's why I was suspecting tables.

Correct me if I'm wrong and accidentally setting up a strawman, but is this what you're stating?

At least one highly active player (Faust or me) is likely fascist
Faust normally plays like this.
Therefore I am likely fascist.

There's a number of errors in your reasoning here. The first point is technically valid, but that's just because out of any two randomly picked people there's likely to be a fascist - the odds of any two randomly picked people being liberal is 5/9*4/8 = 5/18 (about 28%), and that drops to 4/8*3/7 = 3/14 (about 21%) if you work on the knowledge that you are yourself liberal, which of course everyone will claim they are. There's nothing particularly special about Faust and I being the most active players other than we happen to be the most active players.

The second point and third point is... well I presume it's true, everyone seems to be saying it and it'd be a crazy thing to lie about. But in that case it's a non-tell, not a liberal tell. And that means even if you stuck with your first point, it doesn't tell you anything directly about Faust.

Anyway, let's move on to my nominations. I can't pick ghost, since he was recently chancellor. I'm warming up somewhat to Faust being liberal, I feel like he defended himself sincerely and honestly and looking back at his older posts I'm not really getting a scummy vibe any more, I feel like I sorta just overjumped on miscommunications. ADK I still have a decent read on, but he's also next in line, and so he'd be a very risky pick. EgorK has been given a liberal read by Arch, which does mean something. It's... tempting to pick Egor based on it, and see what happen, but it has a decent chance of backfiring. Who else? Despite the above, I'm actually not really suspicious of Gkrieg. Bad logic is not a scumtell, it's just an I-screwed-up-tell. But he's also willing to change his opinions fairly quickly based on information coming in, and that tends to be a good sign to me (after all liberals are trying to work everything out from scratch, so it makes sense for them to reconsider everything. Fascist know everything anyway, so are just trying to blend in and get other people looking scummy, which tends to not have quite as much suspicion switching).

So... right now I'm considering out of those three: EgorK, Faust, Gkrieg.

[faust]

So... right now I'm considering out of those three: EgorK, Faust, Gkrieg.

Well, the good thing about Egor is even if he is a fascist, it would be very risky for him to enact a fascist policy, because he would take Archetype down with him. I am of course also not opposed to getting the seat myself.

[gkrieg13]

I'm really just trying to figure things out, which is hard to do with so little information.  I think my statement that faust was scummy came partially from feeling attacked for no reason.  I haven't been in a government, and my voting has been very liberal.  I also haven't been able to figure out why my government didn't pass.  I have played a few IRL games of this and the first government almost always passes because no one has enough information to be against it.  Unlike resistance, there will only ever be 2 people in a government, which means we really just need to find people that we really trust, which we can't do without the information from voting and policy passing.

[Tables]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

[gkrieg13]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

I agree, but more information is gathered when you see what cards should be left in the deck, and what people say is left in the deck right before the shuffle.  You can often tell which president was lying about drawing 3F just based off what the last president draws.

[gkrieg13]

the first government almost always fails because no one has enough information to be for it.

FTFY. In the first mission if you're voting yes blindly there's a decent high chance you're voting yes for a mission with a fascist on, even if you assume Hitler is playing liberal. Just getting a little information from voting patterns and the like helps make that first decision more informed.

I agree, but more information is gathered when you see what cards should be left in the deck, and what people say is left in the deck right before the shuffle.  You can often tell which president was lying about drawing 3F just based off what the last president draws.

Of course it won't always be perfect information, because we don't get to see the results.  I don't think voting blindly is really all that bad.  If you aren't voting blindly yes, then there isn't really much voting pattern to look at, because you know some liberals are making decisions like they know something, and that fascists are making decisions because they do know something, which are hard to distinguish from each other.

[ghostofmars]

I haven't been in a government, and my voting has been very liberal.  I also haven't been able to figure out why my government didn't pass.  I have played a few IRL games of this and the first government almost always passes because no one has enough information to be against it.

I wouldn't agree with your claim that you voted very liberal. You approved a government that you were not part of that enacted a fascist law. The only person that can easily claim that they voted liberal is Grujah.

However, the voting pattern (from other players against your government) makes it less likely that you are fascist.

Regarding whether one should always pass/reject the first government. It depends a bit on the group meta. The advantage of choosing always the first (or always the last) is that the fascists cannot push one of theirs as president. It is just random. The disadvantage is that you do not learn anything from the voting pattern.

For me there was a simple reason not to vote for your government, which is similar to Tables' reason to vote against Archetype. When your government would be rejected, I would be a potential president in round 2 instead of round 3.

Finally, ADK as you are a potential president this turn, would you mind suggesting your shadow cabinet?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

[faust]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

[Hydrad]

hmm So when do we start voting again?

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Hurrah!

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Good point though.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Hydrad seems liberal to me. Although I might nominate you if I thought that had a better chance of going through.

[faust]

I would nominate Hydrad. I would under no circumstances nominate Archetype or gkrieg.

Seriously, Hydrad? Why not Egor?

Hydrad seems liberal to me. Although I might nominate you if I thought that had a better chance of going through.

... to repeat my question: Why not Egor?