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[gkrieg13]

I agree with Hydrad here. If we go with a liberal, at least we know one person we can safely elect as chancellor at the end.

[ghostofmars]

I agree with Hydrad here. If we go with a liberal, at least we know one person we can safely elect as chancellor at the end.

Actually that does not work that way. Assuming Archetype claims he found a liberal, we may use that player before 3 fascist policies have been revealed. But it is possible that he revealed Hitler and changed his alignment. Hence I would rather try to reveal a fascist.

[ghostofmars]

For the record, here are the current votes (votes in [] are like 'I could live with', votes in () are former votes, recently replaced by another vote more recently)
gkrieg faust or Tables
Archetype [ADK]
Tables Tables [ADK]
ADK [ADK or faust]
ghost EgorK (ADK)
Hydrad
Grujah
faust EgorK or Hydrad (ADK / EgorK or gkrieg)
EgorK

Regarding investigating liberal or fascist. My opinion is that aiming for a fascist is better. Consider the following two cases. If Archetype's investigation reveals 'fascist', we know for certain that one of Archetype and his target are fascist. On the other hand, if he claims 'liberal', we more or less have to appoint the selected player president or chancellor to check if the claim is true and even then we might get unlucky and a liberal draws 3F.

[Archetype]

I wouldn't mind investigating EgorK. Investigating someone who isn't very active seems like it would be the most beneficial.

[Hydrad]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

[gkrieg13]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

This

[faust]

I don't really care who. But I vote that it be done soonish. But maybe I'm just impatient

[Archetype]

Same.

Investigate: EgorK

[Kirian]

Archetype determines EgorK's party alignment (by PM).

[Archetype]

He's good

[faust]

He's good

That you would say that does not exactly surprise me...

[faust]

I suggest to put Egor in the next government.

[ghostofmars]

Well that makes it a bit more likely that Archetype is fascist but doesn't tell us a lot about EgorK's alignment. He is still the best liberal guess based on the ~15% chance that a Archetype is liberal.

I think nominating EgorK as a chancellor is a good idea. While we may want him as a president two turns from now, we may get some information before. It should be also clear that we must be very careful appointing EgorK as chancellor once 3 fascist laws have passed.

So here is my shadow cabinet: chancellor EgorK. I might change that if both Tables and ADK select EgorK too, so that there is another option.

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

[faust]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

Seems fascist to me.

[gkrieg13]

I would elect egork as chancellor. Probably not with tables but would with ghost or ADK.

Why not with Tables?

Seems fascist to me.

And at this point it is more important to have a liberal president than to have a liberal chancellor

[faust]

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

[Tables]

Alright, so uh are we into round 2 now? I believe we are moving there, and that will make me next president.

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

So uh not to dig my own grave but bear in mind I was voting no because I knew it'd make me president 3rd, which is a powerful position to be in regardless of my loyalty. I don't think my votes last round really indicate much about my loyalty. There is the point that fascists did vote the mission up, to some degree at least, so maybe that's a minor point shifting probabilities towards me being liberal, but it's probably minor.

That said, I want to know why I'm suspected as well. Helps know what I need to hide better

Anyway, I've just checked the numbers for last round. Basically re-checking EgorK's calculations. I believe that the chances are as follows:

FFF is 1/4
FFL is 1/2
FLL is 1/4
LLL is impossible as F was chosen.

Assuming Hitler is playing liberal (i.e. for now 'liberal' means 'liberal or Hitler'), which I think is almost certainly going to be the case on card 1, the chance of anyone being normal fascist is 1/3 (3/9) and the chance of being liberal is 2/3. For two given people it becomes a 1/12 chance (3/9*2/8 = 1/3*1/4).

Also assuming liberal doesn't lie

There are four cases which give the result we've seen:

1) Arch draws FFF and is liberal, ghost is any alignment (1/4*2/3 = 1/6 = 6/36)
2) Arch draws FFF and is fascist, ghost is any alignment (1/4*1/3 = 1/12 = 3/36)
3) Arch draws FFL and is fascist, ghost is any alignment (1/2*1/3 = 1/6 = 6/36)
4) Arch draws FLL and is fascist, ghost is fascist (1/4*1/12 = 1/36)

These probabilities don't add up to 100% because the remaining probabilities are those of an L being played instead. In total that means the probability of getting an F played here was 16/36, so given an F was played what we actually get as our odds are:

1) Arch draws FFF and is liberal, ghost is any alignment - 6/16
2) Arch draws FFF and is fascist, ghost is any alignment - 3/16
3) Arch draws FFL and is fascist, ghost is any alignment - 6/16
4) Arch draws FLL and is fascist, ghost is fascist - 1/16

Or to put that another way, purely based on the fact this mission failed and the information revealed afterwards there's a 3/8 or a 37.5% chance that Arch is liberal, and a 62.5% or 5/8 chance that he's fascist. And of that 3/8 chance he's loyal there's a 1/6 chance he's Hitler meaning it's actually more like 5/16 or a 31.25% chance he's loyal and a 68.75% chance he's some kind of fascist.

TL;DR: Mathematically speaking you should suspect Arch, but there's still a very good chance he's loyal based on the numbers, so suspect but don't write him off.

[ghostofmars]

TL;DR: Mathematically speaking you should suspect Arch, but there's still a very good chance he's loyal based on the numbers, so suspect but don't write him off.

If the vote for Archetype's government had been close, I would agree. However, if Archetype is liberal then all remaining liberals and two fascists voted for the government. That seems highly unlikely to me. From your perspective that should be even worse (assuming you claim liberal ), three fascists decided to elect a liberal president.

Actually now that I think about it, perhaps it would have been good to investigate Grujah or you. If Archetype had found you are liberal it makes himself more scummy. Anyway, something to keep in mind for the next investigation.

[gkrieg13]

Now I trust Tables a little bit more. 

I don't think you should make conclusions based on math in a game where some people know everyone's alignment.

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Like Tables, I don't think his voting patterns were very liberal.  But I'm also biased because I know I am liberal, and he voted no against me.  I'm surprised my government got so many nos

[Hydrad]

yay we got somewhere!

and ya i'm ok with Egork getting chancellor or whatever.

[faust]

I am pretty sure that either faust or Tables are fascist just based off of their chattiness. 

Ah. Right. Because this game would go so much better if we all just lurked around and did nothing like you.

[faust]

Eh... can you back that up somehow? I mean, going by last round's election process, Tables seem very liberal, so I'm intrigued to hear your points about how he is fascist.

So uh not to dig my own grave but bear in mind I was voting no because I knew it'd make me president 3rd, which is a powerful position to be in regardless of my loyalty. I don't think my votes last round really indicate much about my loyalty. There is the point that fascists did vote the mission up, to some degree at least, so maybe that's a minor point shifting probabilities towards me being liberal, but it's probably minor.

I realize I was unclear; I did not mean your votes are what makes you liberal, but the fact that so man people wanted to avoid you being elected President.

[faust]

So ghost cannot become Chancellor toda, but will he be a Presidential candidate? I think so.

In this case the options are Tables, ADK, ghost. Of these my priorities are Tables > ghost > ADK. Which luckily makes it rather easy to vote.