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[Hydrad]

wanting action!

ACTION!

gogogo votes

[Kirian]

Sorry about the delay all.

Faust, Tables, gkrieg13, Grujah, Hydrad and A Drowned Kernel vote yes.
ghostofmars, EgorK, and Archetype vote no.

The government is formed!  PMs will go out shortly with cards.

[Kirian]

And again with the delays, what the hell, Kirian?

Anyway:  ADK reveals a Fascist card.

Executive Phase: Special Election:  Faust must now choose a new Presidential candidate, who may be any other player including ADK.  However, that Presidential candidate may not pick faust or ADK as their Chancellor candidate.

Important items:

(1) Since there have now been 3 Fascist policies, if Hitler is elected Chancellor in any future election, the Fascists will immediately win.  This includes the special election.

(2) If the special election forms a government and they reveal a Fascist card, the specially-elected government will get the Execution power.

(3) Assuming you don't immediately elect Hitler or kill Hitler, EgorK will be the candidate for the next election after the special election.

----

I will label this as "Round 8S" for ease of reference.

[Kirian]

Side Note:  There are fewer than two cards in the deck now, so the deck and discard piles are now reshuffled together.

[Kirian]

Current Game State

Round 8S

Turn Order, current President or candidate in bold, current Chancellor or candidate in italic:

gkrieg13
Archetype
Tables
A Drowned Kernel
ghostofmars
Hydrad
Grujah
faust
EgorK

Liberal Policies enacted: 2
Fascist Policies enacted: 3
Current Executive Power: Special Election
Recent Failed Governments: 0

Deck: 12 cards
Discard: 0 cards

Deck and discard contain (total): 8 Fascist, 4 Liberal

Fate of the World:  Unknown

[faust]

Well, this sucked. I got 3F. Now we need to figure out who Hitler is. I can choose a president, and it won't matter if the president is Hitler, so I think I should pick one of our "seems liberal, but could be Hitler" candidates. So I'm leaning gkrieg for this.

Tablesmight be a good choice for Chancellor, I believe he's unlikely to be Hitler. On the flip side of course, he is more likely to be fascist. What do you guys think? Also I understand that it will be harder to trust me now.

[ghostofmars]

[...], but what will happen (my prediction) is that faust will be approved by 6-7 people and then claim FFF arguing that so little liberal policies are left in the deck.

Just as I feared, we are now in the situation where any wrong election can cause us to lose the game.

So I'm leaning gkrieg for this.

I would agree with gkrieg as a president. For chancellor, he should pick either Tables or EgorK. I don't think either of them would have played such a gambit if they are Hitler. Personally, I would prefer EgorK over Tables.

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

[faust]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

[Grujah]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

Doesn't matter, discard gets shuffled.

Yeah, some of "liberals" seem like fine candidates, also I Tables as Chancellor is actually fine, gives us a bit more on faust too (as Tables investigated him).

What are your guys stances on me, btw, how much of you think I could be Hitler?

[Grujah]

Also Egor/Arch team seems WAY more likely than Tables to me at this point, esp. given another recent vote where they voted No against mostly everybody, without chiming in their opinion (which was obviously contrary to everybody) in. I mean, ghost voted Nein too, but at least he is giving us some reasons for it.

[gkrieg13]

Keep in mind that the next president gets to kill someone if a fascist policy is enacted

[faust]

Here are the chances for laws drawn by the upcoming government
FFF - 25.5%
FFL - 50.9%
FLL - 21.8%
LLL - 1.8%

Is this taking into account what we know though? Because that would be important. Assuming everyone told the truth about which policies they drew, we have seen 5 liberal policies. So there is only one more in the next 2 cards. I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim more liberal policies than he has actually drawn. That makes LLL impossible, and FFF only possible if someone lied.

Doesn't matter, discard gets shuffled.

Yeah, some of "liberals" seem like fine candidates, also I Tables as Chancellor is actually fine, gives us a bit more on faust too (as Tables investigated him).

What are your guys stances on me, btw, how much of you think I could be Hitler?

Uh. Sucks that the discard gets shuffled, I hoped we'd get definite information about who lied.

[faust]

Well, I have little reason to believe anyone is or isn't Hitler. I guess Tables and Egor are less likely due to their interaction. In turn, so is Archetype. The rest, man, I don't know.

Electing Hitler for president and him getting the ability to shoot someone is better than having a fascist in power, right? Because Hitler does not know hwo his fellow fascists are.

[gkrieg13]

Well, I have little reason to believe anyone is or isn't Hitler. I guess Tables and Egor are less likely due to their interaction. In turn, so is Archetype. The rest, man, I don't know.

Electing Hitler for president and him getting the ability to shoot someone is better than having a fascist in power, right? Because Hitler does not know hwo his fellow fascists are.

Yes but the best would be a liberal president

[faust]

Some further thoughts on my choice:

gkrieg is a bad candidate in the sense that he is a potential candidate for today either way. By choosing him, I am effecively reducing the possible governments that can be formed to 2.

Okay, how about a survey? Everyone should answer these two questions:

1. If you become presidential candidate, who would you nominate as Chancellor?
2. If you become president and draw FFF, who would you shoot?

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

But I agree that I'm a bad choice for special election.

[gkrieg13]

Oops wrong quote

[ghostofmars]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

Seriously

You'd nominate a player that has a good chance of being Hitler and shoot me instead of one of the players that is actually responsible for a fascist law.

[ghostofmars]

PS, even though I'm probably not considered by Faust

Chancellor: EgorK
Shoot: Archetype

[Tables]

Well this is a sucky position. Reasonably good chance of it happening as well, which sucks. I also didn't realise the last two cards in the deck were discarded before immediately reshuffling which makes things even worse, since there's no information at all on those last two cards.

I don't think you will pick me as president (as you mention, me as Chancellor is a safer option from your point of view), but here's what I would do:

For Chancellor my natural choice would have been faust, of course, but it isn't an option. So... what are the choices?

gkrieg13: Mmm... play has been reasonably Liberal but nothing resounding. Could be Hitler.

Archetype: Very likely a generic fascist. Small chance of being Hitler.

ghostofmars: I feel like there's a decent chance he's the final fascist, or perhaps Hitler. I can't say he has my trust right now.

Hydrad: Similar to Gkrieg, although I trust him a bit more. Another potential Hitler though (ugh).

Grujah: Similar to ghost. It seems likely to me one of those two is the final fascist.

EgorK: Almost certainly not Hitler.

This is a very tough choice. On the one hand, if I were to intentionally elect a fascist, I could then kill him or the other fascist I know (currently leaning towards I would kill Arch for what it's worth). It would also minimise the chance of a fail Or I could even try and take a shot at... Gkrieg, Ghost, Hydrad or Grujah with a view to try and shoot Hitler and end the game. But that's a 1/4 or so shot, so I dunno. Probably I would go with the safe option and kill Arch or EgorK. The other option is to elect someone I think is liberal, but still risk that 1/4 chance. Of the options available to me, I think... Grujah might be the best bet there? I would probably then kill one of Gkrieg or Hydrad in this situation. The reason I would behave differently to above is simply, in this situation I would know one of the four likely Hitler options is not Hitler, so my odds of hitting Hitler are quite a bit better. Most likely right now I would lean towards Gkrieg, although I could be persuaded either way.

Okay, a lot of this is really just irrelevant thought process but it probably also details my thinking on people right now, so there's that. To sum up I think what I would do is:

Elect: Grujah
Kill: Gkrieg

Anyway just reading back over the last few posts, I do have a quick question: Does the special election count as one of our three to form a government? Either way, if it fails I would want Gkrieg forming the government since otherwise it's fascist all the way. And because Gkrieg has a shot at forming a government anyway I think I would probably prefer Hydrad as President, out of the options.

[gkrieg13]

I'd nominate Hydrad.

I'd shoot ghost

Seriously

You'd nominate a player that has a good chance of being Hitler and shoot me instead of one of the players that is actually responsible for a fascist law.

I have my strongest fascist read on you right now, but I need to remember why.  This game has gotten so slow.

I think we should shoot and try to hit a fascist.  Hitting a liberal is very bad.  Obviously hitting Hitler would be the best option, but I think hitting a liberal and giving fascists a 4/4 advantage would make it difficult to enact the last liberal policies, because they could just vote no on every government and take the chances that the top policies were fascist instead of liberal.  So we should be aiming to kill a fascist

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would nominate hydrad if I could, I would shoot ghost, except...

Grujah, why did you vote no on me/Faust but yes on Faust/ me?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Oh wait, we win if we shoot Hitler. Maybe I'd shoot egor then.

[gkrieg13]

Oh wait, we win if we shoot Hitler. Maybe I'd shoot egor then.

Why do you think he is more likely to be hitler than ghost?