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[gkrieg13]

vote vote vote!

[Hydrad]

wow I thought I voted. I'm sorry guys.

[Kirian]

Just waiting on Grujah then, he may not be back from his skiing trip yet though.

[Kirian]

Ja:  ADK, faust, gkrieg13, Tables, Hydrad
Nein: EgorK, ghostofmars, Archetype, Grujah

ADK is confirmed as President.

Cards will be PM'd shortly, feel free to CO.

[gkrieg13]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

[EgorK]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

[ghostofmars]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

[Hydrad]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

well I can still be voted after this right?

I dunno just having faust "cleared" alone makes me think its an alright combo. And ADK doesn't seem too scummy to me. So I'm pretty ok with this one.

[Grujah]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Could be Hitler.

[Grujah]

Also, I didn't lean on ADK on either F or L, and Tables clearing Faust wasn't really that convincing, so I voted no, but it was a close call.

[Tables]

Umm  shouldn't we be in silence right now?

[gkrieg13]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Why is one fascist for? There are 5 liberals

[EgorK]

Well it looks like we know who the fascists are.  This feels like a good presidency

At least one fascist voted for. Also, your post reeks scummy

Why is one fascist for? There are 5 liberals

Because Tables is fascist. Also I am liberal

[Tables]

Legislative Phase

The Legislative Phase happens entirely in PMs.No discussion may happen during this phase.

Guys.

[Kirian]

Legislative Phase

The Legislative Phase happens entirely in PMs.No discussion may happen during this phase.

Guys.

Eh.  That could be clearer... none of this discussion is an attempt to influence the cards, or the holders of those cards.  So I think it's not a problem.

In other words, the legislative phase occurs entirely in PMs anyway, it's not something that can be discussed really, when you think about it.

That said:

faust reveals a Liberal policy.

No Executive phase occurs.

ghostofmars is now the Presidential candidate.

[Tables]

The discussion could influence what a fascist decides to do, even if it's not directly about the cards, right? But eh, whatever.

Anyway, good result, but let's hear what Faust was passed and what ADK claims as well.

[ghostofmars]

As it's now the first time that it matters: ADK could you please claim first so that you cannot coordinate in the unlikely case that you are fascist and Faust is Hitler.

[Grujah]

they can coordinate that way, adk could have sent lf and can claim ll or the other way around, signaling faust. they cant w/o risk if faust goes first. or am i wrong

[Hydrad]

guys we did it!

I always believed in you.

[A Drowned Kernel]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

[faust]

Oh man, I hoped you'd have discarded at least one fascist policy.... that's really bad news.

[Tables]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

This is bad, if it's true. It means 4-6 of the Liberal Policies have already gone, so there's at most 2 left in the deck. That means we're very likely to have someone draw FFF at some point in the next three rounds.

However, it's possible ADK is lying to cover for something. Although exactly what isn't obvious to me. I guess it could be to make it seem more likely that Arch drew FFF, since it accounts for the L's in the deck more clearly. But... this just doesn't seem likely to me. On the other hand drawing LLL is also very unlikely. Tsk. I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Hmm... we have quite a bit of hard information now. Let me list all the facts I can think of, for easy reference - although working on the assumption that liberals always tell the truth. I'll keep these objective for now, so all of this should be 100% true for everyone.

Arch/ghostofmars played an F.
Tables/EgorK played an F
ADK/faust played an L.

Arch drew 0-2 L's. If Arch is liberal, Arch drew 0 L's. If ghost but not Arch is liberal, Arch drew 0-1 L's.
Tables drew 0-2 L's. If Tables is liberal, Tables drew 1 L. If EgorK but not Tables is liberal, Tables drew 0-1 L's.
ADK drew 1-3 L's. If ADK is liberal, ADK drew 3 L's. If faust but not ADK is liberal, ADK drew 2-3 L's.

At least one of Tables and EgorK is a fascist.
-If Tables is liberal, EgorK is a fascist
-If EgorK is liberal, Tables is a fascist

Arch claims EgorK is liberal.
-If EgorK is a fascist, Arch is a fascist
-If Arch is liberal, Tables is a fascist

Tables claims faust is liberal
-If faust is a fascist, Tables is a fascist

There's also voting patterns, but they're already collated neatly and I need to go to bed anyway.

Now based on this... I know EgorK and Arch are fascists, and both voted no to this proposal. Hmm. Ghost and Grujah also both voted no. One of those could be the third fascist, but I dunno. Ghost had next proposal, so that isn't much of a reason to suspect him. Grujah... why did you vote no? Or, well, I can see a bit of an explanation up the page, but could you explain a little more maybe?

Hitler could have voted either way here, he's probably still being liberal though. Hard to deduce anything about him right now.

[A Drowned Kernel]

ghost if fascist for real. I am very confident about this.

[EgorK]

The bad news is I drew LLL.

The good news I'm pretty sure all the people who voted no are the fascists.

How so?

I mean, look from my pov. You selected faust as you chancelor, the only thing I know about faust is that he is said to be liberal by confirmed fascist. I see no reason to vote for goverment with him

Besides LLL proves about nothing about your or faust alignment. You have no reason to claim anything but LLL in this case. Well, probably FLL just to spread some confusion, but it is a minit point (besides, you can claim LLL if it was FLL and faust is liberal, so there were no point in passing FL)

[ghostofmars]

Just when I hoped, we had finally figured out one liberal player, this had to happen

The bad news is I drew LLL.

So now I'm not sure anymore if ADK is liberal.

I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Here are the maths. Actually LLL is more likely that I would have thought, depending on the previous rounds.

If Archetype and Tables told the truth, there were 5L and 6F left. Note that in this scenario Archetype is still fascist, but he got unlucky (from his perspective) and drew FFF anyway. In this scenario, we have a 6.1% chance for LLL and a 36.4% chance for LLF.

If Archetype told the truth and Tables lied, there were 6L and 5F left. The chance for LLL is 12.1% and for LLF 57.6%.

If Archetype lied and Tables told the truth, there were only 4L and 7F left. Here there is only a 2.4% chance for LLL and a 25.5% chance for LLF.

Finally if both Archetype and Tables lied, there were 5L and 6F left. The chance for LLL is 6.1% and for LLF it's 36.4%.


So from this I take that if Tables told the truth, it is much more likely that ADK lied and vice versa. Hence, I think it even more likely that not both Tables and ADK are liberal.
It is also a bit more likely that Archetype told the truth, but that doesn't necessarily tell us something about his alignment.