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[ghostofmars]

Hydrad, why do you trust ADK more than yourself?

well I can still be voted after this right?

I dunno just having faust "cleared" alone makes me think its an alright combo. And ADK doesn't seem too scummy to me. So I'm pretty ok with this one.

Imho, you shouldn't consider every government on its own. You should compare all possible options, which were ADK/faust, me/Grujah, and you/(faust or me), and select the one you think is the most liberal.

[EgorK]

Just when I hoped, we had finally figured out one liberal player, this had to happen

The bad news is I drew LLL.

So now I'm not sure anymore if ADK is liberal.

I feel like some maths on the probabilities here is necessary, because humans are awful at judging the likelihood of small probabilities, especially in a comparison, especially especially in a comparison which involves conditionals.

Here are the maths. Actually LLL is more likely that I would have thought, depending on the previous rounds.

If Archetype and Tables told the truth, there were 5L and 6F left. Note that in this scenario Archetype is still fascist, but he got unlucky (from his perspective) and drew FFF anyway. In this scenario, we have a 6.1% chance for LLL and a 36.4% chance for LLF.

If Archetype told the truth and Tables lied, there were 6L and 5F left. The chance for LLL is 12.1% and for LLF 57.6%.

If Archetype lied and Tables told the truth, there were only 4L and 7F left. Here there is only a 2.4% chance for LLL and a 25.5% chance for LLF.

Finally if both Archetype and Tables lied, there were 5L and 6F left. The chance for LLL is 6.1% and for LLF it's 36.4%.


So from this I take that if Tables told the truth, it is much more likely that ADK lied and vice versa. Hence, I think it even more likely that not both Tables and ADK are liberal.
It is also a bit more likely that Archetype told the truth, but that doesn't necessarily tell us something about his alignment.

I actually think that Tables told truth that he drawn FFL, just not what cards he passed to me.

[faust]

Math is all good and fine, but I don't think it matters here, because I doubt that fascist!ADK (and fascist!me if you believe that) have any reason to claim more Ls than there actually were.

For instance: Assume there are <2 Ls drawn. That means ADK and me both are lying, and thus are fascists. But then... why didn't we enact a fascist policy? Seems stupid. So <2 L is out of the picture. You guys know as much as I do  - there were at least 2 Ls. This makes all calculations in ghost's post moot I believe.

[faust]

Also, less than two L implies a Tables/me/ADK team because if I were fascist, the same holds for Tables. Then it makes even less sense to claim a result that makes it more likely that Arch told the truth...

[faust]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

[EgorK]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

[faust]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

Have you read my posts? ghost's calculations are meaningless. Even more so for me, because I absolutely know that there were 2 Ls.

[faust]

Some talk about the next government would be good.

I will vote no against any ghost government. I am kind of torn between Hydrad and Grujah, so it would depend on their Chancellor choices.

[gkrieg13]

I would probably vote yes for Hydrad. I trust him more than grujah and ghost is conf!fascist

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

[Tables]

I have to agree with faust, I don't feel that Ghost's reasoning especially demonstrates anything explicitly. The main question I have to ask is - suppose ADK didn't tell the truth and drew FLL. Why did he lie? Consider effectively, he passed LL. That means as scum he could claim FLL or LLL reasonably. FLL is a nice, convenient claim - drew a fascist policy and threw it out. No lying needed, looks pretty liberal. Or even drawing FLL lets him pass FL, claiming to have thrown out F, and spread misinformation about the number of L in the deck while looking good himself. With two failed missions before, it's hardly like there was any danger of someone drawing so many L's that he looks bad later on - it'd just make people on M1 and M2 look worse, most likely.

So if he lied, it has to be better than these options - or well, I don't know how much ADK analysed the options on what he could claim, but he has to have thought it was worth lying about for some reason over just telling the truth. That means basically, one of two things:

1) ADK is telling the truth, regardless of his loyalty.
2) ADK thought there was something reasonably useful to hide by lying and claiming LLL.

What does an LLL claim hide? It makes claims with less L's in sound more likely. Right now, that would be Archetype, who claimed FFF but likely drew FFL. I claimed FFL, but it's not really my draw that has been under dispute at all. So this could be to cover for Arch? It could also be to cover for future Fascist plays, allowing F's to be played more easily under the pretense of drawing FFF. I guess it could also have just been a spur of the moment lie, although for what reason? None of these really sound especially convincing as reasons to lie, to me, which makes me think option 1 is most likely. However it isn't impossible.

Or in other words, ADK probably did draw LLL is my conclusion.

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

Faust was just chancellor, so this isn't an option. Hydrad I think I quite like as President, at the very least I haven't seen anything to make me particularly suspicious of him. Grujah... I don't have a bad read on Grujah, so to speak, but there's been a few little odd things here and there. And Ghost... I STILL don't have such a bad read on him, like faust does. His votes have been suspicious, but I have a hard time completely writing him off.

[gkrieg13]

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

faust was just in the last government right?  He can't be in one this round

[gkrieg13]

I have to agree with faust, I don't feel that Ghost's reasoning especially demonstrates anything explicitly. The main question I have to ask is - suppose ADK didn't tell the truth and drew FLL. Why did he lie? Consider effectively, he passed LL. That means as scum he could claim FLL or LLL reasonably. FLL is a nice, convenient claim - drew a fascist policy and threw it out. No lying needed, looks pretty liberal. Or even drawing FLL lets him pass FL, claiming to have thrown out F, and spread misinformation about the number of L in the deck while looking good himself. With two failed missions before, it's hardly like there was any danger of someone drawing so many L's that he looks bad later on - it'd just make people on M1 and M2 look worse, most likely.

So if he lied, it has to be better than these options - or well, I don't know how much ADK analysed the options on what he could claim, but he has to have thought it was worth lying about for some reason over just telling the truth. That means basically, one of two things:

1) ADK is telling the truth, regardless of his loyalty.
2) ADK thought there was something reasonably useful to hide by lying and claiming LLL.

What does an LLL claim hide? It makes claims with less L's in sound more likely. Right now, that would be Archetype, who claimed FFF but likely drew FFL. I claimed FFL, but it's not really my draw that has been under dispute at all. So this could be to cover for Arch? It could also be to cover for future Fascist plays, allowing F's to be played more easily under the pretense of drawing FFF. I guess it could also have just been a spur of the moment lie, although for what reason? None of these really sound especially convincing as reasons to lie, to me, which makes me think option 1 is most likely. However it isn't impossible.

Or in other words, ADK probably did draw LLL is my conclusion.

I would likely vote yes on a hydrad Faust government

Faust was just chancellor, so this isn't an option. Hydrad I think I quite like as President, at the very least I haven't seen anything to make me particularly suspicious of him. Grujah... I don't have a bad read on Grujah, so to speak, but there's been a few little odd things here and there. And Ghost... I STILL don't have such a bad read on him, like faust does. His votes have been suspicious, but I have a hard time completely writing him off.

So who do you have a bad read on?

[gkrieg13]

I would support a Hydrad / gkrieg government.  I'd have to think about most other governments.  ADK and faust are my top liberal reads right now with Hydrad and grujah behind them. 

One of Tables or EgorK is probably liberal, so I guess one of my liberal reads is off.  I think I trust Hydrad over grujah?

[EgorK]

And ghost trying to twist things the way to make it look like ADK/Tables cannot both be liberal makes me more certain about my reads on those three.

I do not have strong (or any) town read on ghost, but he said that likeness of both Tables and ADK being liberal is less than 50%. Even without my inside knowledge that such likeness is exactly zero you have to have very strong town reads on both to this not being true with so much scum relative to town. Otherwise I do not see why he question your claims as there is not much reason to do so. My reads on both of you are not changed based on your goverment actions

Have you read my posts? ghost's calculations are meaningless. Even more so for me, because I absolutely know that there were 2 Ls.

I had addressed part I disagreed with. I agree with the fact that those calculations are meaningless, I addressed that in second half of my post

[ghostofmars]

Math is all good and fine, but I don't think it matters here, because I doubt that fascist!ADK (and fascist!me if you believe that) have any reason to claim more Ls than there actually were.

For instance: Assume there are <2 Ls drawn. That means ADK and me both are lying, and thus are fascists. But then... why didn't we enact a fascist policy? Seems stupid. So <2 L is out of the picture. You guys know as much as I do  - there were at least 2 Ls. This makes all calculations in ghost's post moot I believe.

I still think it is more likely that ADK is liberal. I just don't see the scenario where he and Tables are liberal.

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Nevertheless it is not difficult to come up with a scenario where fascist!ADK would lie. Perhaps he wants to give another fascist a easy way to claim FFF or just create confusion.

Of the available candidates Grujah is still my best town read, so I'm likely to propose him as a chancellor, but I would like to hear the shadow cabinets of him and Hydrad before I announce it officially.

[faust]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

[Hydrad]

ok well LLL here makes me feel a bit better about arch as that makes FFF a bit more possible. Still not going to vote for him at the moment though.

Actually one thing that catches my interest is why would arch say FFF. as a liberal its just unlucky. But as a facist the only reason for that would be if he was paired with a facist right? so that we would still consider ghost as a possible liberal?

hmmm.

And I can't nominate ADK/faust huh... Thats kinda annoying.

Arch/egork/tables are out. grujah would be a coin flip. ghost I'm not feeling the best about now.

So I think I might go gkreig. Makes me feel a bit better that he didn't get voted through in a way since the 2 rounds after him both ended up being F rounds.

[Grujah]

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

[Grujah]

So I think I might go gkreig. Makes me feel a bit better that he didn't get voted through in a way since the 2 rounds after him both ended up being F rounds.

Yeah, that makes gkrieg good candidate for sure.

[Grujah]

Just for the reminder, Tables, Arch, Egor and ghost voted that down.

[ghostofmars]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

Now you are just ridiculous. I just used an hypergeometric distribution calculator and quoted the resulting numbers. The only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth. This in combination with the fact that ADK voted down Tables government leads me to the conclusion that they are not both liberal.

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

I still think it is better to consider all governments and take the best option. Towards the end of the game it may make sense, but now from your perspective you+gkrieg should be strongly preferred over Hydrad+gkrieg.

Btw I don't think LLL tells us much about faust's alignment. He didn't have any option.

nominate Grujah

[faust]

only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth.

Yes - and that conclusion is wrong.

Look, let's go through your scenarios.

Arch + Tables told the truth: So you say we have 6.1% LLL and 36.4% FLL. Other cases are impossible, thus we have 14.4% LLL and 85.6% FLL

Arch told the truth, Tables lied: Similarly, from your numbers we get 17.4% LLL and 82.6% FLL.

Arch lied, Tables told the truth: This gives 8.6% LLL and 91.4% FLL.

Both Arch and Tables lied: Again 14.4% LLL and 85.6% FLL.

Nothing here is "3 times more likely" than something else.

[ghostofmars]

This is not how statistic works. You need to do Bayesian inference. Let's do just Tables truth or not combined with LLL to keep things simple.

P(H|E) = P(E|H) P(H) / P(E)

P(H|E): probability that Tables told the truth (hypothesis, H) given the evidence (E) that LLL was drawn.
P(E|H): probability for observing the evidence E, given that the hypotheses H is true
P(H): initial guess for the probability that the Tables told the truth
P(E): sum of all probabilities

Let's say we didn't know anything P(H) = 0.5. If Tables told the truth the chance for LLL is 2.4 to 6.1%, so approximately P(E|H) = 0.04. If Tables lied the chance for LLL is 6.1 to 12.1%, so approximately P(E|not H) = 0.09. Hence, P(E) = P(not H)P(E|not H) + P(H)P(E|H) = 0.065 and this gives
P(H|E) = 0.04 * 0.5 / 0.065 = 0.31
and
P(not H|E) = 0.09 * 0.5 / 0.065 = 0.69

This is the proper way the probabilities add up to 1.

[Grujah]

Btw my math compares LLL and LLF and not LFF. I don't see a scum team where both you and ADK are non-Hitler fascists.

Um no. You give percentages for both which don't add up to 100%, implying that you think other scenarios possible. This also serves as a way to artificially make the numbers look smaller than they actually are.

Now you are just ridiculous. I just used an hypergeometric distribution calculator and quoted the resulting numbers. The only conclusion I drew from those numbers is that it is 2-3 times more likely to draw LLL when Tables lied than when Tables told the truth. This in combination with the fact that ADK voted down Tables government leads me to the conclusion that they are not both liberal.

Gkrieg is a fine choice, your candidacy I would be probably support. Yes, I could be a president this round too, but I am not convinced that one should default to no in those cases, rather that I should weight the benefits of having me on team vs gunning down 2 governments.

 I wanted to nominated him as I said before, though now that ADK and faust look good, you kinda get bit wary about everybody else. Like, if I believe that ADK and faust are liberal (though faust can be anytin if he was passed LL, and so could ADK) + me, + one of Egor/Tables, than makes 4 - only 1 is left. I am not completely convinced that is the case, tho it is plausible, so one have to consider it. 

I still think it is better to consider all governments and take the best option. Towards the end of the game it may make sense, but now from your perspective you+gkrieg should be strongly preferred over Hydrad+gkrieg.

Btw I don't think LLL tells us much about faust's alignment. He didn't have any option.

nominate Grujah

Voting No on all but best of 3 options can easily result in no-vote, which is bad, especially now. Also electing earlier suggested goverment take it longer till Arch or Egor or other suspected Fascists get to be president.