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[ghostofmars]

It's obvious we shouldn't include Archetype in any governments in the near future. I'd suggest that we vote on a candidate that Archetype should investigate, so that we avoid that he uses his power to sow confusion. Furthermore it may give us some more hard data from the players that are currently a little bit inactive. I let the other players decide whether you want to count Archetype's and my vote or not.

I'll go ahead and vote ADK for two reasons: he is a potential president in the next round, he approved the president Archetype. Obviously the votes are not binding but it would be very scummy for Archetype to ignore the group's consensus.

[gkrieg13]

I'd want one of the active players investigated, so either faust or Tables.  I also find them the most polarizing, so all the better reason to have them investigated.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

[Hydrad]

I'm ok with being investigated also! As I'm obviously the most active and important person in this game.

[Hydrad]

but ya gkrieg/tables/adk/faust are my top 4 I guess.

[Archetype]

It's obvious we shouldn't include Archetype in any governments in the near future. I'd suggest that we vote on a candidate that Archetype should investigate, so that we avoid that he uses his power to sow confusion. Furthermore it may give us some more hard data from the players that are currently a little bit inactive. I let the other players decide whether you want to count Archetype's and my vote or not.

I'll go ahead and vote ADK for two reasons: he is a potential president in the next round, he approved the president Archetype. Obviously the votes are not binding but it would be very scummy for Archetype to ignore the group's consensus.

That's fair. If I was in your guys' shoes, I'd probably do the same.

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

[Tables]

Well, I agree that I don't have more content than you... but the two of us are basically the main contributors, while people like Hydrad or Egor do nothing at all. I have taken a pretty firm stance early on, I take full responibility for my vote. That is not scummy.

I'm one of the main contributors? You know, you might actually be right. I hadn't really thought of that, I always feel like I'm playing catch up on what everyone else is doing. I guess that's just a symptom of playing a game with 8 other players. So, okay. You're probably right though.

You seem to think that it was too little to go on to form a strong opinion. Well yes. I don't have strong opinions because it is too early.

So, this isn't really what I was suspicious about. It was more this sentence part in particular:

if ADK's top priority really was stopping Arch from getting into the government, he would vote yes for any of gkrieg's suggestions that do not include Arch.

I feel like this grossly misrepresents what Arch was saying. At worst, Arch was saying 'I find him suspicious' but here you're suggesting what he meant was, well, what you said there - that Arch cared absolutely about keeping Arch about above anything else right now. That seems like you're really blowing out of proportion someone's suspicions.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you.

This one sentence in particular surprises me, mainly because of this just a short time ago:

So. I don't trust Tables. I don't feel great about ADK. Egor, ADK, Grujah - I encourage you to support this government.

Could you explain this change?

[faust]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

Vote: ADK

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

[faust]

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

You're also 50% fascist (probably more because you are scummy). If you investigate anyone who's not chosen by the group, I don't think I would ever elect you for the government again.

[faust]

I feel like this grossly misrepresents what ArchADK was saying. At worst, ArchADK was saying 'I find him suspicious' but here you're suggesting what he meant was, well, what you said there - that ArchADK cared absolutely about keeping Arch about above anything else right now. That seems like you're really blowing out of proportion someone's suspicions.

I think this is the right fix for what you wanted to say? Well I guess I thought people would approach the game like I do. If he thinks Arch is suspicious, and he does not have any other suspicions, then for sure the top priority should be to keep Arch out of the government until you have more reads. Arch is scummy, everyone else is null or liberal, then you absolutely should fight any Arch government. That is how I think you should play at least.

Look, I think you are genuine here, and I have a liberal read on you.

This one sentence in particular surprises me, mainly because of this just a short time ago:

So. I don't trust Tables. I don't feel great about ADK. Egor, ADK, Grujah - I encourage you to support this government.

Could you explain this change?

Main thing is the mere fact that obviously the fascists supported the Arch/ghost government, so that means they did not want you as President. I felt badly because of the way you defended ADK mainly, because it seemed a bit baseless, but I start to think now that that reads was genuine, and the other stuff you're posting gives me a good vibe.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm fine being investigated, I have nothing to hide. I'd also be happy with Faust.

Vote: ADK

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

Why? We can POE this.

[Archetype]

I'm also fine letting you guys semi-direct my investigation. However, as there are an equal number of Liberals as Fascits amongst you guys, I'd still like to use a bit of my own judgement.

You're also 50% fascist (probably more because you are scummy). If you investigate anyone who's not chosen by the group, I don't think I would ever elect you for the government again.

Savage. I'll keep this in mind.

[Grujah]

Man, we do let ghost of mars to a lot of directing just after he passed a fascist law. Yes, he probably didn't have a choice at all, though collaboration isn't impossible.

CAPTAIN HINDSIGHT:
Also, I see now that some "agreed upon" choosing of first (or first few) candidates is a very good thing, as you can't have this "He seemed fine when I chose him" as that give leeway for fascist. If a group has a agreed upon candidate (last one in presidency line) than stepping away from it needs a big reason, and is harder to pull of.
--

It is not completely unreasonable to me to think, that if Arch is a fascist, he chose ghost of mars cuz ghost to signal to Hitler who one of the fascists are.

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

[faust]

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

Huh? Obviously any investigation Arch does will depend on his alignment... well not the investigation itself, but what he tells us about it. I have no idea what you mea by this.

[Tables]

I think this is the right fix for what you wanted to say?

Herp derp, I should not post after midnight apparently.

Well I guess I thought people would approach the game like I do. If he thinks Arch is suspicious, and he does not have any other suspicions, then for sure the top priority should be to keep Arch out of the government until you have more reads. Arch is scummy, everyone else is null or liberal, then you absolutely should fight any Arch government. That is how I think you should play at least.

Hmm... okay, I think I understand. This seems reasonable.

Main thing is the mere fact that obviously the fascists supported the Arch/ghost government, so that means they did not want you as President. I felt badly because of the way you defended ADK mainly, because it seemed a bit baseless, but I start to think now that that reads was genuine, and the other stuff you're posting gives me a good vibe.

Okay, right. This isn't quite what I was expecting you to say here, but I can understand it. This last post of yours has actually made me reconsider my thoughts on you; that doesn't mean I think you're liberal but I'm certainly not highly suspicious any more. I guess it's probably more a contrasting playstyle which makes me find some things you're saying suspect.

Man, investigating a fascist beats the hell out of investigating a liberal. Liberals should fight not to be investigated. This is very scummy.

No, I think this is the other way around. Although, I'm not going to claim certainty that it's definitely better to find liberals. But there's two main advantages to investigating liberals.

1) Our primary objective is not to find and kill the people we distrust but to find and collaborate with the people we do trust. I would be much happier to find two people I was absolutely convinced were Liberal than I would to out two facists.

2) It gives potential to build up a short chain of trust. Say that Arch investigates ADK, and finds he is liberal. Then ADK investigates me, and finds I'm liberal. Now Arch knows I'm liberal, because he knows he can trust ADK. Obviously, this has some issues - firstly we don't know if we can trust what Arch says, but we also don't know for certain that he's a fascist yet. It's certainly quite possible that he's loyal. Secondly unlike in Resistance, there's no guarantee that the next investigation will be in the hands of the first person investigated.

If Arch investigates, and says the person is a fascist, that does give us some information - at worst we know one of Arch/that person is a fascist. But I don't think this is as good as getting a liberal answer on someone.

[Grujah]

Now, I agree ADK would be a good one to investigate, if Archtype isn't the one investigating. ADK has scum chance cuz "maybe he voted for fascist president on purpose" but if he did, than that same fascist president won't really pin him as fascist. Id rather have an a investigation that is independent of Arch's affiliation.

Huh? Obviously any investigation Arch does will depend on his alignment... well not the investigation itself, but what he tells us about it. I have no idea what you mea by this.

adk being fascist theorem is bulit upon arch being fascist (at least what was written here) - thats the difference.

[Archetype]

I would be totally cool investigating ADK.

[Grujah]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

I have a read on you, tho to make it more clear, could you give a clear cut reason of why change of hart from gkriek's suggestion to Archetypes?

[Grujah]

I also wrote this and got it lost somewhere, so rewriting it:

@Tables - Now that I think about it, "investigation for liberals" is kinda neater if investigator is a fascist suspect. If an F investigates another F, he can semi-clear them. If he investigates a L, he can semi-clear them or start a war exposing one of them and basically guranteeing none of them gets on a goverment. So, it is more in our favor to gun for Ls, i guess, even though L finding an F has is the single best outcome, trying to find Fs might not be the best in average case.

[ghostofmars]

I changed my mind.
vote EgorK

I had hoped that voting on investigation candidates would draw some of the less active candidates to commit a bit more, but as that hasn't really worked out, I would now prefer to get some information about them by investigation.

EgorK is the most likely target here because of his lack of activity and because he switched from opposing gkrieg's government to approving Archetype's one.

[Hydrad]

Hmm I really don't know at this point. The only thing I really have info on right now is that arch is potentially scummy. From reading the discussions about stuff I guess I like Grujah a bit also since he was voting no for arch.

But for me I don't have a strong opinion really either way at all for who to investigate on. It seems like we aren't even really sure if getting a facist or liberal result is better as liberal means you can trust someone and facist means just don't let them get involved.

So I'm fine with pretty much anyone.

[faust]

Welp. That sucks.

People have fascist reads on me because I'm doing something. I mean, why have a fascist read on me? Because I supported this government? Man, assume there is scum amongst Arch/ghost - why would fascist!me push for that so hard? Do I really want to link myself to them that badly?

My fascist read doesn't have to do with the amount that you're posting.

Well, with what does it have to do?

I have a read on you, tho to make it more clear, could you give a clear cut reason of why change of hart from gkriek's suggestion to Archetypes?

Not sure what "change of heart" you mean... gkrieg nominated ADK, I thought ADK was scummy, so I voted against the proposal. Arch nominated ghost, I thought Arch was liberal, so I voted yes.

I guess I said early on that I wanted the first two proposals failed? Well that changed when I felt like Tables was a fascist.

[faust]

Good points about investigating liberals. I may be stuck in a mafia mindset. I's still good to know who one fascist is because that gives you clues about the other fascists. But I guess I'm also fine with investigating a liberal. Egor or Hydrad seem like decent targets.

[EgorK]

Good points about investigating liberals. I may be stuck in a mafia mindset. I's still good to know who one fascist is because that gives you clues about the other fascists. But I guess I'm also fine with investigating a liberal. Egor or Hydrad seem like decent targets.

Problem is investigation is only reliable if done by someone presumed liberal

Anyway, some math as I promised. Let's assume Archetype passed 2F out of 2F1L only if he is fascist and not Hitler. We have following cases here

1. Archetype is fascist that is not Hitler (apriori probability is 1/3):
a. Got 3F. (apriori probability is 165/680)
b. Got 2F1L. (aprioti probability is 330/680)
c. Got 1F2L and ghost is fascist that is not Hitler. (apriori probability is 1/4 * 165/680)

Total is 1/3 * (165 + 330 + 165/4) / 680 = 0.26286...

2. Archetype is liberal or Hitler and got 3F (apriori probability is 2/3 * 165/680 = 0.16176...)

So if before you had null read on both Arch and ghost, now probability of Arch being fascist is 62%, while being liberal or Hitler is 38%. If you had reads you need to update corresponding apriori probabilities

[EgorK]

And yes, this is all assuming Hitler plays liberally as both president and chancellor here