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[Eevee]

Sorry, I've been putting this game off, apologies. I'll reread and make a bigger post tonight, attempting to not fall behind like this again.

[Voltaire]

Sometimes I have something to say. Sometimes I don't.

I certainly hope you have something to say today (D2).

[yuma]

Well let's look at everyone's initial reaction to shraeye saying there was a slip. I think we will notice a trend.

shraye made the case (1) it was on voltgloss (2)

Robz (3)

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Oh. Woah.

Voltaire (4)

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

This...this might be the first scumslip I could support.

ashersky (5)

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

liopoil (6)

<i>might</i>

august 8th, 10pm

<i>on Day 1</i>

august 10th

voltgloss has not posted in that QT since august 8th, 7 am.

Nkirbit (7)

Yeah, that is significant.  I'll vote volt once we have a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering or something dumb

Eevee ( 8 )

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

mail-mi (9)

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

Jorbles (10)

Whoa, that's pretty incriminating, has Voltgloss ever done that in another game? I haven't seen him do that.

chairs (11)
didn't react, but didn't really need to.


But my point is can you separate the reactions from the people above? Everyone--including lio for a time--had the same reaction of "Woah! That is ___some word (incrimination, big, significant, huge! OMFG!!!). Vote or intent to vote." There isn't a way that I can see to separate them out to mafia/not mafia. Because everyone reacted the same way. Really the only one that is different above is lio's who went straight into analytical mode trying to see if volt's explanation made sense or not (which is what I did as well...), but ultimately fell into the "this is big, vote:" until he changed his mind. So nearly everyone had the exact same reaction.

except for me...

yuma (12)

So I guess I am the only person who doesn't find voltgloss scummy for this? When I read shraeye's post explaining the italics thing my mind immediately jumped to this QT that volt is talking about. It is a very simple and easy mistake to make, switching up the tags. People do the opposite all the time in the QTs... I know for a fact that chairs (yes, he isn't in this game, but as an example) just barely did so in the speccy for CLUE... especially in the context of voltgloss using that thread a lot--not necessarily as of late, as some have mentioned, but recently enough that it is probably the place where he most recently used tags.

Could this be voltgloss as mafia. Maybe. But this, like so many other slips before it I think this is going to result in probably a townie lynch and very little to go off come day2.

So I guess you could say that the only real use is that it separates me--and then to an extent lio later after he changed his mind--and so that is useful. But ultimately I already know I am town, so it is useless to me and honestly it doesn't tell me much about lio. He had the same reaction I did to volt's explanation--well I had though of volt's explanation before he had given it--and had posted it before I ever came online, so I don't find him scummy for coming to the same conclusion. So you might find it useful, but if you found it useful it really only could be in the context of me. So maybe there is utility if you find me townie for it--cause then you would get a correct read--but if you found me scummy. Well then it is worse than useless.

[Robz888]

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

This is one I did later in D1 than yours. D1 ended at 686.

Post counts, no pre-game, through 545:

yuma - 62
Voltaire - 54
ashersky - 42
mail-mi - 42
UmbrageOfSnow - 34
Voltgloss - 32
nkirbit - 30
Robz888 - 29
Jorbles - 29
shraeye - 26
liopoil - 12
Eevee - 7

D2 post counts:

yuma - 17
Voltaire - 7
mail-mi - 2
nkirbit - 4
Robz888 - 27
Jorbles - 4
shraeye - 2
liopoil - 10
Eevee - 0

mail-mi only posted after I called him out. Eevee is semi-V/LA I think from another thread. Shraeye has also promised a re-read but not yet delivered.

Alright, this is ridiculous. Lynch all lurkers time. Pick a lurker. Who has the least good excuse?

[Robz888]

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

[Robz888]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

[yuma]

Ok: nkirbit and liopoil time:

nkirbit was pretty focused on ash through the early part of day1. Initially for pushing his claiming plan so hard. Despite voting first, he almost sheeps Robz's vote (as well as mine to an extent) retroactively in how he is trying to explain it.

He then moved to UoS and was I think ultimately the catalyst for the PR claim. Doesn't make him scummy though to be voting for a PR... others were as well I think?

He also has pretty similar reactions as I do to ash in general and to ash's extended absence.

and then the voltgloss slip happened.

So I guess the question here is do I find someone who is somewhat mirroring me (not necessarily copying or sheeping me, because I think both of us took the lead at times in terms of pressing the ashersky wagon)? And the answer is that yes, I do. I have found scum here in the past. Captain_Frisk and myself (that was more of a lesson learned as I had a town read on him for so long for having similar reads) and then in B2B with nkirbit and liopoil for both pressing the mail-mi "easy" lynch wagon. I'll take a better look at this after I read liopoil to see if the mirroring is actually as prevalent.


Lio:

So lio started off on VLA so need to take that into consideration:

But I think the most noticeable point about liopoil is his complete lack of stances during day1 up until the voltgloss "slip." Like I said, VLA takes part of the blame for this, he only had 14 posts before the slip.

His first vote was on Voltgloss. I think this indicates more town lio than scummy lio. Take a look at lio in Mean Girls where he didn't vote much at all and compare to B2B lio where he was voting early and often (and I think the other games he has played in reflect that as well).

So really lio is mostly a null read because of his VLA, but I do expect his contributions to be ramped up day2... they haven't been thus far however (he has had more posts than the average player, but everyone isn't posting much at this juncture) so this null read certainly is leaning toward scum just based off the worry that he was using his VLA to coast and hasn't felt the need to post more after that... (I know he has taken this stance before)

[Voltaire]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

[Voltaire]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

Actually, flip nkirbit from effort to lurking.

[Robz888]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

Actually, flip nkirbit from effort to lurking.

I was gonna say--I think nkirbit's lurking.

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

[Voltaire]

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

[yuma]

So mirror or no mirror? Not the following are just quotes for my reference, the next post will actually be talking about them for readability...

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Still happy to be voting Ashersky.  Maybe I haven't explained it the best, but I just do feel like his actions haven't been that of a town member.

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

This is scummy enough that I'm going to vote UoS for it.  I wasn't getting at that.  I think it's pretty scummy to say, "Nkirbit thinks Ashersky is scummy for that reason!" when really, you're the one that finds him scummy for that.

My feelings for Ashersky weren't well articulated at all, and I completely understand why people, such as Shraeye, were suspicious of me for having them.  Basically, I just have a gut feeling that Asherksy's plan is coming from scum here, and I still do have the feeling, but don't have any real evidence to back it up at this point so I'll drop it.  But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Nothing to say, except yuma captures my thoughts on ash perfectly. Remember, ash is always up to do a crazy plan, regardless of whether he is town or scum. I think his crazy plan here might have been trying to get away with a VT claim as scum. Remember, there is extra benefit to that, here! Because you don't get shot by SKs that way.

Vote: Ashersky

Still find him the scummiest.

He's around, just not posting in this thread.  And I do think that's very anti-town, and another reason for me to keep my vote on him.  I know Ash sometimes does weird stuff, but deliberately avoiding a thread to make a point?  That's anti-town enough that I'm not sure town wants to do it.

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

making us think that "no way would scum ash be that crazy" and establishing that as his eccentric meta.

I assume he knows that it won't work on me, so I dont' think he is trying to convince me, but from all appearances it is working on a lot of other players. I think if this was anyone but ash, there would be 1-2 more votes on him at this point.

Yes, I expect him to come back at some point with the, "Cmon guys!  I wouldn't be that obvious as scum!" argument.  And you know, he could be correct, but I think there's a larger chance that he's scum than anyone else in the game, so I'm happy to vote there.

I still have the same bad feeling I had about his plan initially, and no one else has jumped out at me as a good lynch.

I agree, liopoil.  I can see crazy!town!ash avoiding the thread with the same likelihood of crazy!scum!ash avoiding the thread.  I can think of at least one goal ash may be trying to achieve with this gambit, assuming it is a gambit and assuming he is town.  So at this point, that behavior of ash's is a nulltell for me. 

Keep in mind--and this is something that I haven't pushed enough, but should have--that I, at least, am not voting ash because he hasn't posted. It has encouraged me to continue to vote for him. But it isn't the reason. I was voting for him before because I believed many of his posts were written with the intent to mimic his persona. I can reference the post for you if you would like that I compiled them, but really just reread him for yourself. He has many suggestions, ideas and reactions that from my perspective--and this is coming from someone who has been scum partners with him--that I believe are forced and unauthentic. That is why I am voting for him. I think the not posting is just taking that concept to another level so I continue my vote.

[yuma]

So I do think that nkirbit has been mirroring both robz and I. Note again that this is different from sheeping. To me mirroring is when you have a read as scum (whether sheeped or not) that you maintain throughout the game because other people have had it as well. Basically as scum you feel comfortable keeping a read or an opinion because there is the idea of safety in numbers. C_Frisk did it with me in MVIII and lio I think did it with nkribit in B2B.

But what really jumps out to me here is that nkribit does it with not just me, but with robz and me.

It is important to note that he had the first vote on ashersky. So it certainly hasn't been a sheep situation for him (but I think he knows better than to sheep as scum).

Instead he continues and slightly borrows from Robz:

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

And as well from me:

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

making us think that "no way would scum ash be that crazy" and establishing that as his eccentric meta.

I assume he knows that it won't work on me, so I dont' think he is trying to convince me, but from all appearances it is working on a lot of other players. I think if this was anyone but ash, there would be 1-2 more votes on him at this point.

followed by:

Yes, I expect him to come back at some point with the, "Cmon guys!  I wouldn't be that obvious as scum!" argument.  And you know, he could be correct, but I think there's a larger chance that he's scum than anyone else in the game, so I'm happy to vote there.

I still have the same bad feeling I had about his plan initially, and no one else has jumped out at me as a good lynch.

combine this with what I actually think to be a pretty good case on him by Voltaire late day1:

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

In the recent Blitz game when he was town, Ash proposed his plan, and immediately justified his reasoning.  He started by trying to convince everyone that his plan was pro-town, because he wanted it to happen.

Here, his plan was proposed very differently.  He didn't start with justification, that came later.  In fact, he started posts with language such as, "Further to this", indicating he was still thinking through his plan even after he proposed it.  Which would be fine, if it wasn't completely different from what I have seen from town!Ash before.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

nkirbit is voting for ash for taking a few posts to explain his plan and not making it obvious that the plan was pro-town, which I disagree with. nkirbit can only justify this with "feel" and "gut", and then he sheep's Robz's totally different reasons for voting for ash.

Then, this happens:

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just flat-out incorrect, as pointed out by UoS himself, and another sheep. Take it all together, and vote: nkirbit.

and his lurking today I am comfortable with a vote: nkirbit

[Jorbles]

Voltgloss's opinions on and major interactions with others:

Voltgloss says nkirbit's reactions to ash's plan is probably the scummiest. He doesn't hate ash's plans and likes yumas reaction to the plan, which he basically agrees with. He places a vote on nkirbit here.

Robz, you out there?

He calls out Robz for lurking.

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

He finds nkirbit's explanation of his actions reasonable and unvotes. He asks if mail-mi normally acts like he has in this game.

Having read up to #255, yuma v. Voltaire feels more like town v. town than anything else.  nkirbit's response is, again, reasonable.  But I don't agree with the reasons for his vote on ash.  I agree with UoS's #255 that ash is playing like ash tends to play, whether town or scum.  His pushing massclaim as a plan is a nulltell. 

To answer shraeye's question:  I was somehwat surprised by mail-mi's blatant sheeping and sort of, ah, "flippant" tone in the game?  I guess that's the best word?  Not having played a game with him before I didn't know whether this was a departure from his usual practice.  Apparently it's not.

He is of the opinion that yuma and Voltaire are both town, and reasserts that he thinks nkirbit is being reasonable though disagrees with his reasoning. He feels null about ash. He says that he found mail-mi suspicious for sheeping, but on finding this normal declares it null.

I have further thoughts on the massclaim theory front but I agree with UoS and yuma that it's no longer fruitful to pursue.  It's clear we're not doing it, and we have how everyone reacted to it, and that's the most important thing (I think) from a scumhunting perspective.

ash and yuma:  Don't make me turn this car around.

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Vote: Eevee.  Give us some substance, fuzzy.

He votes Eevee for his lurking. He asks me and mail-mi for reads. He asks yuma and ash to stop bickering.

He comments that UoS is probably town after his drunk posting.

He asks everyone for reads.

I'm around.  I've been rereading and mulling all weekend and will be posting my thoughts this evening.  ash is one of those I'm thinking hardest about.

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil?

He states that he's been thinking a lot about ash and asks everyone for their thoughts on liopoil. He later says that he had not noticed that liopoil was VLA, but that something else was bothering him about liopoil.

Will not lynch today:
- UmbrageOfSnow (barring counterclaims)
- yuma
- Robz888

Could lynch today:
- Eevee
- Jorbles
- Voltaire
- shraeye

Prefer to lynch today:
- ashersky
- nkirbit
- mail-mi
- liopoil

...

Volt's reads. Probably some of the most important info from Volt yesterday.  One of his preferred lynches was NKed. He said that I should be considered as mail-mi's partner if mail-mi flips scum. Note by the end of the day he was definitely willing to lynch Robz, so this list was probably out of date by the time of lynch.

I just reread with an objective eye what I was about to post on liopoil, with a vote on liopoil, and decided it wasn't as compelling as I thought it was.  I also think it's not the right time to raise the observation that I found potentially concerning.  Let liopoil finish his V/LA (which ends today, I think?) and have an opportunity to come to us with susbtance first.

Instead, vote: nkirbit.  mail-mi is the obvious active lurker lynch (and as I said before, not a bad lynch choice).  ash is also an obvious active lurker lynch at this juncture, unless/until he gives us scumhunting substance and addresses the cases against him.  But nkirbit is also actively lurking, but in a more subtle way by focusing on only a couple of players.  That's what concerns me most.

Voltgloss decides not to mention what he found suspicious about liopoil. This may have gone with him after he was lynched. He finds nkirbit most suspicious for focussing on only a few players. Though he find mail-mi suspicious for actilurking.

He states that he doesn't think yuma is necessarily scum or town at this point.

At this point shraeye posts his case on Voltgloss, which changes the tone considerably. He doesn't mention the slips at this point.

Here's Volt's response. He defends himself, but says he doesn't find shraeye scummy for making the case chalking it up to differences in playstyles.

Voltgloss posts his tidbit on liopoil which is that he was possibly breadcrumbing Vig to set himself up for a fake claim. He doesn't seem to think it's a big thing, which is why he hadn't made a big enough deal of it to post it.

After this he rightfully hammers ash for his VT claim for a bit. shraeye votes for him right after this, and shortly after follows up pointing out the "slips".

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Volt posts an explanation, but shraeye points out time discrepancies with the explanation.

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

Volt's last big post, pointing out a case on Robz, and stating that he thinks ash, yuma and shraeye are towny. Robz argues with him about it, and Voltgloss thinks he struck a nerve.

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

So this obvious lie of a defense doesn't register to you?

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

Now this is much more interesting. Because it isn't a slip, it is a contradiction. But is it really a contradiction? I mean I can kinda see what he is trying to say. That he has been alternating posting "here" as in the f.ds forum in general and the QT he is working on.

But I guess what now worries me is that he hasn't come out and said that himself...

That is, indeed, what I was trying to get across.  But I don't expect it to be believed.  See, I know if positions were reversed that I wouldn't believe it.  Hence my resignation to being lynched.  Really, my mislynch now is just a matter of "when," not "if.". And better it be today, when our chance of mislynch is highest anyway.

I am VT, by the way.  So no worries about the town mislynching a PR today either.

It is what is.  My lynch hurts town but I have only myself to blame.  Sorry town.  I am rusty and sloppy, and will try to do better next time.

We absolutely should wait for UoS though.

Also, when I am dead and flip town, be sure to scrutinize - not only Robz - but also liopoil.  Jumping on my wagon excitedly and almost immediately jumping off (when he sees he isn't "needed") is what I would expect overeager Mafia to do here.

Here Volt points out that he thinks liopoil is acting how an overeager mafia player might act on his wagon.

TL;DR
Volt was suspicious of Robz and liopoil at the end of the day. He had town reads on yuma, shraeye, and ash. Throughout the day he was also suspicious of nkirbit, mail-mi, and to a lesser degree you could say Eevee (for lurking).

PPE 11 posts:
This took me all day to put together so I'm going to take a little break before I respond to those other posts, but I do think it's worth revisiting Volt's suspicions, which regardless of what we're discussing now I plan to do at some point.

[shraeye]

I'm looking at people reacting to Voltgloss:

My case on Voltgloss came at #555 (link here)

At this point people had said this about Voltgloss
Voltaire:

Voltgloss - Perfects the plan. Methodical scumhunting. The most obvious pro-town player, I'd say.

Jorbles:

Voltgloss has been leading town, which I think mafia might do, but not SK (I don't think Volt is mafia here, I've seen him do this in the past as town).

Ashersky:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

Eevee:

Voltgloss: The strongest nonclaimed town read (but I have a bias, his playstyle always reads towny to me). A lot of his posts I think hit the nail to the head, really good observation and analysis in my opinion.

Yuma had also put Voltgloss in a not-lynchign category because he had no suspicion of Voltgloss, and thinks he could read better on future days.
Mail-mi had put Voltgloss in his not-lynching category, but didn’t give explanation why.

So pretty much everybody had Voltgloss as a townread, except for ashersky who said Voltgloss was likely SK.

When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Liopoil also caught that Voltgloss’s explanation didn’t make sense time-wise

Town points, he’s following up on this slip.  Lio further pushes (in #578) Voltgloss because the AtE defense that Volt gives

Ashersky offhandedly votes, giving no specific indication of reason, though likely this is a slip-vote.

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

Scumpoints for the offhanded vote, while focusing on defending himself from Voltaire

Nkirbit also slip-votes, but wants to hold off in case he’s hammering

Yeah, that is significant.  I'll vote volt once we have a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering or something dumb

I don’t see what the point of wanting to make sure he isn’t hammering is.  At this point, it is very clear to many people that Voltgloss is the lynch for the day.  Voltgloss had even resigned himself to it at this juncture.  I’m giving nkirbit double scumpoints for this.

Eevee votes for Voltgloss, congratulating me, but continues to scumhunt.

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

Minor townpoints awarded.

Liopoil questions the slip, unvoting.  This also gives townpoints.  If he’s scum, he could easily just leave his vote there and he has, as Yuma says, a ready-made excuse for it.

Mailmi reacts exactly as nkirbit did

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

I give mail-mi 1.8x scumpoints for this.  Not as many as nkiribt, who was worried about being the hammer back when the slip was posted…mailmi’s vote would come after 50 or so posts, so there is more confusion about where Voltgloss is at.  But still, I don’t see the point in worrying about hammering.  If you really think that this slip caught scum, why wouldn’t you hammer?  The only answer I can think of is that you are worried about how it will look.  And I don’t know townmail-mi to be that concerned about how he looks, which often gets him mislynched.  Actually, after realizing that mail-mi doesn't care how scummy he looks very very often, I'm going to upgrade this to 2.5x scumpoints.


Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.

Jorbles comes in and also agrees with Robz that Volt has acted like caught mafia. No points either way, this statement had already been made, and agreeing to it is different from bringing it up.

Nkirbit gets around to voting Voltgloss, and does it somewhat hedgingly

I haven't got much of a read off of Voltglosses' reactions.  I think either scum or town could react the way he did.

Still, I do think that Voltgloss is much more likely than anyone else to flip scum at this point.  I can see him getting confused were he jumping back and forth between this game and a mafia QT.

I also think that Ash has been towny since coming back, so

Vote: Voltgloss

This puts him to 5.  L-2, I believe.

Small scumpoints on this one, seems very uncommitted to Voltgloss being scum, doesn’t find Volt’s reactions particularly scummy.  This is a pure slip-vote.

Mailmi calls Voltgloss the “best lynch of today”. Small scumpoints, this is weird wording.

Voltaire’s reaction to Voltgloss

I can't comment on Volt in previous games, but I agree his reactions post-shraeye post have been scummy. "Meh, oh well!" and going gracefully into the night - I think that's scum WIFOM of "wait scum would fight this harder". yuma points out that apparently Volt has done this in the past but that's awhile ago and I'm not comfortable making such a big decision based on very old meta information I wasn't directly involved with.

I also do not buy the defense given the timing of the posts in each place, as pointed out by others.

Intent to vote Voltgloss after UoS comes back and we sort out what's happening there.

I also really like the reactions this has caused.

Finds Voltgloss’s post-slip actions scummy in addition to the slip itself; doesn’t want to rely on second-hand, old meta-info.  Also points out the timestamp problem with Voltgloss’s defense. Minor townpoints here, bringing up the contradiction, which was an important piece of the case I feel.  Going back and forth between any QT could make sense, and I was prepared to admit that, but became convinced of my success when I saw the timestamps in the QT he said he was confused because of.



So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

Got some null people in order from town-null, null, scum-null are Eevee, Jorbles, Voltaire.  Eevee's townpoints get downgraded for being super-absent, Jorbles is null, Voltaire gets downgraded to scum-null because he was the last one to comment, possibly waiting to see what others thought of things.

I'm upgrading ashersky's scumpoints because his offhand vote on Voltgloss was to tell somebody how many votes Voltgloss had, and to agree with Robz's post on Volt's post-slip actions.  I think that nkirbit (scummy), ashersky (scummier), mail-mi (scummiest) come off scummy from the way they supported the Voltgloss lynch.

[shraeye]

Here's something I also found during reread

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

[Jorbles]

@shraeye: can you clarify your position on Robz?

...
Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

...
When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.
...
So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

You at one point say that you found Robz scummy, but then find him towny, and in the final bit on Robz you say you found him fairly towny. Ignoring everything else in the game, what you've isolated looks like you should feel fairly null on Robz? Personally I'm still forming an opinion on Robz who I always have trouble reading.

[yuma]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

[Robz888]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

[yuma]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

feast or famine man...

[Jorbles]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

feast or famine man...

You guys are really tanking our post-length average.

[Eevee]

This will be my catch up post, starting from the start of day 2.

So, chairs and ashersky were killed. I would assume chairs was shot by mafia, as ashersky seemed like a very viable mislynch target and UoS-chairs was pretty universally thought of as towny. Ash could either be our SK's victim (in which case our vig chose not to shoot) or there was some double killing going on.

Robz is being unreasonably anti-vig (hi, I've been vig twice, shot once, hit mafia), but that's nothing new. Robz, all your arguments could be used to bash day 1 lynching, do you think that's terrible and "negative utility" too? ((I don't support vigs shooting night 1 and I agree vigs on f.ds have generally been way overeager. I don't know if this setup and needing kills to see alignments of dead players changes things though.)

All well and good, but what would you have wanted me (and the likes of me) to do? There was a case build that largely relied on a slip as a piece of evidence. That case made me believe Voltgloss had the highest chance of flipping scum. I should have just ignored that read, because it came from a source you don't deem legit? Vote for someone I think is less likely to be mafia, that person is town and then we feel better? It's obviously unfortunate things went down the way they did, but I don't regret voting for Voltgloss. I thought he was going to flip mafia, and it wasn't just the slip, it was the whole case shraeye posted that had me convinced. You can hold me responsible for that! I think you should hold everyone responsible for their votes. I think this lynch is very similar to most of our day 1 lynches - a townie makes a mistake, someone catches it and makes a case, enough people think that's a mafia-y mistake, they lynch the poor townie.

re: yuma's big post about our reactions to Voltgloss's "slip"

I don't think your problem was with the lynch being caused by a perceived slip. I think the problem is that the case on Voltgloss was so strong (because of the slip) that everyone thought he is our best lynch and scum quickly realized he was getting lynched no matter what, so they didn't have to push their hidden agenda. Which is practically the same as someone getting caught by a tracker or cop or a hider plan, except we were wrong this time.. I think being upset and I told you so-y to us about putting too much weight to a slip (that clearly wasn't a slip) would be fine, as we clearly were wrong. Your stance seems more like "you shouldn't pursue your reads if they came from a slip", which I do not agree with. Voltgloss himself thought it wasn't worth it to fight his lynch anymore because the evidence was too damning, so I still can't feel myself to feel bad about being wrong about that. Still responsible for my actions though!


.. I'm in the middle or reading shraeye's megapost and something came up. I'll be finishing this up in a couple of hours with my updated reads and a vote. Cliffhanger!

[Voltaire]

@shraeye: can you clarify your position on Robz?

...
Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

...
When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.
...
So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

You at one point say that you found Robz scummy, but then find him towny, and in the final bit on Robz you say you found him fairly towny. Ignoring everything else in the game, what you've isolated looks like you should feel fairly null on Robz? Personally I'm still forming an opinion on Robz who I always have trouble reading.

Jorbles took the words right out of my mouth. f.ds was loading slowly for me and I had to catch a bus, and by the time I got home I found this post already. I have the same question.

[mail-mi]

Homework, so I will do some catchup (hopefully) later, but I've read the cases on NK and I like them, so I'll vote: nkirbit and do some stuff later.

[Eevee]

So, for whatever reason, nothing that has happened day 2 this far has given me much of a read. Not having flips for night kills really sucks I guess?

Very unlike myself, I don't have any strong town reads at this point. My strongest scumread is clear however, and that's Robz. Admittedly it's mostly for stuff that happened day 1, but as far as I can see his scumhunting contributions today have been finding yuma slightly scummy for his Itoldyouso-ness and nkirbit scummy for making promises and then there are these

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

Come out scum. Say hi.

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

and these

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

Seems he is trying to artificially increase his post count so it wouldn't seem like he is a lurker so he could go after people with low post counts. If it's just an attempt to get the game rolling, I think what yuma (and others) are doing with the rereads and digging back to Voltgloss's reads (oh hi, he suspected Robz too) is just much more helpful.

Mail-mi sheeping the nkirbit-case looks suspicious to me as well, so I'm back to my mid-day 1 preferences: Robz is the scummiest followed by mail-mi. I also have somewhat of a bad feeling about yuma, he is putting in an admirable amount of effort but I don't really agree with his conclusions or cases like I usually do.