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[Archetype]

Welcome to the...
Wibbly Wobbly Timey Wimey Dinner Party!

Hosted by: The Doctor

Signup List:
0. Archetype
1. Jorbles Vaporized N2. Rose Tyler the Vanilla Townie
2. Voltaire Lynched D3. Dalek Caan the Dalek.
3. Eevee Vaporized N2. Martha Jones the Vanilla Townie
4. Voltgloss Lynched D1. Donna Noble the Vanilla Townie.
5. Robz888 Vaporized N3. Ood Sigma the Roleblocker
6. UmbrageOfSnow >>> chairs Vaporized N1. Sarah Jane Smith the Flavor Cop
7. nkirbit SURVIVOR! Jack Harkness the Vanilla Townie
8. yuma Lynched D2. Cyberman-aligned Cyberman Sentry
9. ashersky Vaporized N1. Amy Pond the Vanilla Townie
10. shraeye Vaporized N4. Dalek Sec the Dalek.
11. mail-mi Vaporized N4. Judoon Captain the Cannibal Vigliante
12. liopoil Lynched D2. Mickey Smith the Vanilla Townie

New info will be red (and hopefully read).

f.ds Mafia Ruleset stolen from everyone except Axxle

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun!  Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Please read The Civility Pledge before signing up for this game.  If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play here.

Excessive personal attacks or uncivil behavior may be dealt with by modifiers or modkills.

General Gameplay and Etiquette:

1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. Personal communication outside of the forum postings is NOT ALLOWED unless your Role PM specifically allows it.  For example, Mafia members may communicate at both night and day, and during the confirmation stage in their specified QT.
3. If you have a role with a Night action, your choices are due to the moderator by the posted deadline (generally 48 hours from Night start during the first few Nights; later Nights may have shorter deadlines).  If we do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions.  In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.  Generally, one team member may submit the Night Actions for all team members.
4. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 24 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.
5. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
6. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mods know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase. Any action not received by deadline will default to a "No Action".

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:

1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate.  Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in Quicktopics. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent, but will be invited to the Spectator Quicktopic.
8. Do not edit or delete posts.  We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post. Mods will not edit posts for you.
9. This game will have roughly 10 day Day deadlines and 48-hour Night deadlines.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:

1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mods privately.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread. That includes Vote Counts. Anyone who's been in one of my games knows I get them wrong often, and its usually best if you PM me any problems with them.
3. The Mods may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mods so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will not be issued automatically after 48 hours of no activity or upon request after 24 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement.  A player who has been prodded 2 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.

Helpful Links:

--Main Wiki Page

--Newbie Guide

--Frequently Asked Questions

--Commonly Used Abbreviations

--Mafia Theory

TO CLARIFY, I AM A MODERATOR OF F.DS, BUT ONLY IN THE DOMINION TOURNAMENT SECTION. IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.

GAME SET-UP AND ROLES LISTED IN NEXT POST

[Archetype]

This game will be run using the Donner Party Open 12 player setup with characters from the Doctor Who Universe (knowledge of the universe is, however, not required to play).

The setup is as follows (rethemed):

2 Cannibal Mafia Goons (Daleks Sec/Caan)
1 Cannibal 1-shot Bulletproof/1-shot Roleblockproof SK (Cyberman Sentry)
1 Cannibal Vigilante (Judoon Captain)
1 Flavor Cop [Sarah(Gun)smith] (Sarah Jane Smith)
1 Roleblocker (Ood Sigma)
6 Vanillas

The Donner Party setup introduces some new and exciting mechanics:

-Cannibals: The focal point of the game. All killers in the game are 'Cannibals'. That means that when they complete a nightkill, only they will learn the Alignment and Role of the killed player. All other information will be hidden from the Town. Lynches go about as normal, but when a 'Cannibal' is lynched, the identities of all victims of their kills throughout the course of the game will be revealed. If a Cannibal kills another Cannibal, they inherit the bodies of the target Cannibal's victims, including the target from that player's NK (if applicable). If multiple Cannibals kill the same player, they all learn the identity of the killed player. If two Cannibals NK each other, their role/alignment info and all their spoils will be revealed to the Town.
-No Way, No Lynch: Players cannot 'Vote: No Lynch'. If, by deadline, a lynch has not been decided on, whoever has the most votes on them will be lynched. In case of a tie, whichever player had a vote cast last on them is lynched.
-Dalek Daytalk: Mafia will have their QT opened at all times.
-Deadly Defenses: The Cyberman is immune to the first Night Kill and the first Roleblocking to affect him.
-Crafty Companion: The Flavor Cop gets results back in the form of Cannibal/Not Cannibal/No Result.

The Doctor Who theme also introduces its own set of mechanics:

- Tasty Theme: Each player will be given their own flavor name. Scum players will receive a safe fakeclaim upon request.
- Fun Flavor: The opening/closing posts will have its share of theming, but its just enjoyment for fans of the show and has no in-game significance.
- Alternate Alignment: Mafia-aligned becomes Dalek-aligned, Self-alignedbecomes Cyberman-aligned, and Town-aligned becomes Universe-aligned

Role PMs:

Daleks:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're Dalek Sec/Dalek Caan, the Dalek-aligned first/second in command Cannibal Goon for the Cult of Skaro. You win when all other killers are dead and you control the majority of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

You have a QT to conspire with your fellow Dalek, [Player Name], found here: [link]. You can talk with each other as much as you want during the day or night as long as you're alive. Each night one of the two of you may complete the factional kill by vaporizing a player of your choice. Their ashes will be unreadable by the Town, but with your advanced knowledge, you and your partner will be able to detect both their Alignment and Role Name. When you are lynched, a hologram will be activated revealing the identities of all players you've killed throughout the game.

Good luck!

Cyberman:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're a Cyberman Sentry, a Cyberman-aligned Cannibal Serial Killer cyborg from the planet Mondas that now resides on Telos. You win when you are the last player alive or nothing can prevent that from occurring. Luckily, your inventor John Lumic equipped you with the some tools to help you win.

Metal Chassis (1-shot Bulletproof): The interior of your body is complex enough to sustain the first attempt at someone vaporizing you. You will be notified when this has been used.

No Emotion (1-shot Roleblockproof): Cybermen show no emotions and as such, the first attempt of someone stopping you with emotional persuasion will fail. You will be notified when this has been used.

Additionally, each night you may complete the factional kill by targeting one player and vaporizing them. Their ashes will be unreadable by the Town, but with your advanced equipment, you will be able to detect both their Alignment and Role Name. When you are lynched, a memory record will be activated revealing the identities of all players you've killed throughout the game.

Good luck!

Judoon Captain:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're the Judoon Captain, a ruthless authoritative Universe-aligned Cannibal Vigilante that will put an end to all crime in space by any means necessary. You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Each night, you may target one player and vaporize them. Their ashes will be unreadable by the Town, but with your military training, you will be able to detect both their Alignment and Role Name. When you are lynched, in your dying breath you'll reveal the names of all players you've killed throughout the game.

Good Luck!

Sarah Jane Smith:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks you're Sarah Jane Smith, one of The Doctor's best Universe-aligned companions with K-9 at your side. You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Since you're a Flavor Cop, each night you may send out K-9 to sniff out one player. You will be told if that player is a Cannibal/Not Cannibal and No Result if K-9's investigation is halted in some way.

Good Luck!

Ood Sigma:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're the Ood Sigma, a faithful servant to mankind as well as being Universe-aligned. You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Each night, you may go ballistic, pressing your telecommunication orb against a player of your choice and immobilizing them that night. Essentially functioning as a Roleblocker. This will work every time, unless you target a Cyberman. They will bypass your paralyzing attack the first time it targets them.

Good Luck!

Vanilla Townies:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're [Flavor Name] and are Universe-aligned. Your power is your vote, so use it wisely. You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Good Luck!

[Eevee]

Yeps!

[yuma]

/tag...

won't /in now. I hate to be that guy, but I need more information about this setup before I /in. I do realize that if it is closed that means I might not be able to /in

[mail-mi]

Is this the donnor party one?

[chairs]

How does a day deadline mesh with the inability to no-lynch?

Also /in.

[Archetype]

Well that took longer than expected. OP #2 updated.

[mail-mi]

u need comod?

[Archetype]

u need comod?

I'd rather have players, but possibly. I have a minor V/LA that may happen while this is running, so I'd need someone then. But I'll let you know.

[sudgy]

Again, I'll /in if it hasn't started by my long V/LA (which apparently is from August 26-30...).

[UmbrageOfSnow]

/Allons-y!

[nkirbit]

/in

[ashersky]

/in

[yuma]

fully /in. I have been intrigued by this setup for a while now.

[Voltaire]

So in. Can't not play Doctor Who mafia.

[shraeye]

i'm in.

[mail-mi]

Well this is filling fast. /in

[Twistedarcher]

You all are crazy. I was gonna wait for clue to finish but I guess I won't have that luxury. You all have fun! Arch let me know if you need a co mod

[Voltaire]

You all are crazy. I was gonna wait for clue to finish but I guess I won't have that luxury. You all have fun! Arch let me know if you need a co mod

Piggybacking off this, since it looks like this will fill in the next 24 hours, when will it start?

[sudgy]

You can push me off if more people want to /in, I don't care.

[Archetype]

You all are crazy. I was gonna wait for clue to finish but I guess I won't have that luxury. You all have fun! Arch let me know if you need a co mod

Piggybacking off this, since it looks like this will fill in the next 24 hours, when will it start?

I was thinking after one of the normal games ended, but if it's unanimous to start once it fills, I can do that too.

[Robz888]

/in

[nkirbit]

I would really prefer if this didn't start at least until day1 of harry potter is over.  A lot of people are in both harry potter and this, and two day1s at the same time seems insane.

[liopoil]

How did this fill so fast? /in

[Voltaire]

I would really prefer if this didn't start at least until day1 of harry potter is over.  A lot of people are in both harry potter and this, and two day1s at the same time seems insane.

Agreed.

[sudgy]

How did this fill so fast? /in

I have no idea...

[Archetype]

How did this fill so fast? /in

I have no idea...

No CLUE either.

Fine with starting it whenever, but I'll aim for when HP goes into night.

[Jimmmmm]

Sorry Arch, /out for now. No way I could cope with 3 games.

[chairs]

I'm a dick, I know, but /out.

[shraeye]

How did this fill so fast? /in

Interesting setup

[Voltgloss]

This feels like just the right level of complexity - intriguing setup, not role madness, and a reasonable game size - for me to get back into the world of Forum Mafia.

I know zilch about Doctor Who, but why should that stop me?

/in.

[shraeye]

yeayeayea!!

Voltgloss!!

[Jorbles]

If there's still room I'll in! If not you can put me on a list as a replacement.

[Archetype]

Yep, you're in!

This is set to start when Harry Potter goes into night. If anyone objects, we can wait longer.

[nkirbit]

Voltaire and Voltgloss?!  Who do I call Volt? 

[Jorbles]

Gloss and Aire.

[Voltgloss]

Or VG, when referring to me.  I'll happily cede the "Volt" moniker to Voltaire.

[Voltaire]

Or VG, when referring to me.  I'll happily cede the "Volt" moniker to Voltaire.

Naw, it's yours. My time as the Usurper was fun, though!

[Robz888]

Voltaire and Voltgloss?!  Who do I call Volt? 

We briefly had this problem once Voltaire joined, but then he vanished for awhile, and Voltgloss was once again the only Volt. Then Voltgloss vanished, too! Voltaire returned to us a few weeks ago, and now, so did Voltgloss. Coincidences!

VA and VG might work.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm just going to call Voltaire by his real name: François-Marie Arouet.  Monsieur Arouet for short.

[Eevee]

FMA. That might work!

[Galzria]

This feels like just the right level of complexity - intriguing setup, not role madness, and a reasonable game size - for me to get back into the world of Forum Mafia.

I know zilch about Doctor Who, but why should that stop me?

/in.

I'm shocked that you're not a Whovian given your rich cultural background.

[Jorbles]

I have also never seen an episode of the show. Almost everything I know about Dr. Who I learned from the Dr. Who pinball game:
-There's a bunch of different actors who play him.
-He has a phone booth.
-If you hit the daleks enough you get more points.
-Dr. Who is British.

I am entirely in this because I think the Cannibal mechanic is neat.

[shraeye]

Then we'll call Voltaire by the name Usurper instead.

Also, I'm in the same boat as Jorbles, minus the pinball experience.

[ashersky]

All I know about Dr. Who is that it's a cheap ripoff of Inspector Space-Time.

[Eevee]

All I know about Dr. Who is that it's a cheap ripoff of Inspector Space-Time.

All I know of Inspector Space-Time is from Community, and I know tenfolds more about Inspector Space-Time than I do about Doctor Who.

[Jorbles]

Can we reskin this game to be Inspector Spacetime themed? 

[yuma]

All I know about Dr. Who is that it's a cheap ripoff of Inspector Space-Time.

Ditto.

[Voltaire]

All I know about Dr. Who is that it's a cheap ripoff of Inspector Space-Time.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Well I feel special, as part of the minuscule cross-over audience between Inspector Space-Time and Doctor Who.

[sudgy]

I haven't seen it, but know a fair bit about it.

The Doctor is a "time lord", a certain alien species.
Time lords have two hearts, and "regenerate" every once in a while (I don't know what causes it).  Regeneration causes them to become like a different person (and change actors).
He time travels using the TARDIS, a police box that is bigger on the inside.
Daleks look like fat R2-D2s.
Weeping Angels are those statues that attack you when you stop looking at them.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Time lords have two hearts, and "regenerate" every once in a while (I don't know what causes it).

Contract Renewal.

[ashersky]

Is there a Constable Reggie in Dr. Who?

[Archetype]

Is there a Constable Reggie in Dr. Who?

Not that I've heard of. But this could just be another Community joke. 

In case there was any concern, these roles will be given out 100% randomly. I don't know if people knew this or not, but in my RMM/BM games I give some roles to players based on their metas/how much they'd appreciate the role. Ex: The juxtapose of both nkirbit and Twistedarcher being mailman in RMM8. But just saying this to ensure people that these rolled will be given out without any switch-ups by me.

[yuma]

after sitting down and realizing all the stuff we need to do before baby comes, I think I should /out, but I am not going to.

But I do need to say that if I am still alive in Harry Potter mafia it will likely result in decreased participation here, especially during day1. as we get into later days I imagine I will be able to be more active... just FYI.

[shraeye]

Yup, kill those blorgons.

[Archetype]

I'll keep you in, Yuma, but if you ever feel like you won't be able to play, please feel free to let me know. It'll be a little easier to swap you out pre-game than in the middle of it.

[Jimmmmm]

I'll keep you in, Yuma, but if you ever feel like you won't be able to play, please feel free to let me know. It'll be a little easier to swap you out pre-game than in the middle of it.

Depending on when this starts and whether I'm still involved in other games, I might be able to swap in for yuma or someone else if necessary.

[yuma]

I'll keep you in, Yuma, but if you ever feel like you won't be able to play, please feel free to let me know. It'll be a little easier to swap you out pre-game than in the middle of it.

I'll stay in for now. and once I am in I will be committed. I'll let you know if anything else changes.

[yuma]

Can I suggest that this start before HP heads into night? My reasoning is thus:

When HP heads into night there will be 2 real days of night. When this game starts there will be 2 days of Night0 thus effectively having HP and this game start day2 and day1 at the same time.

I think i would prefer it if we tried to time the start of this game so that we could start posting at about the same time HP goes into night... maybe slate it for starting 3 days before HP's day1 deadline?

Just a thought.

[liopoil]

alternative suggestion, which works better for me: this starts when HP starts D2. avoids both games being in night.

[mail-mi]

Can I suggest that this start before HP heads into night? My reasoning is thus:

When HP heads into night there will be 2 real days of night. When this game starts there will be 2 days of Night0 thus effectively having HP and this game start day2 and day1 at the same time.

I think i would prefer it if we tried to time the start of this game so that we could start posting at about the same time HP goes into night... maybe slate it for starting 3 days before HP's day1 deadline?

Just a thought.

I agree with Yuma the earlier the better!

[shraeye]

I agree with lio.  Start after HP is out of night.

[yuma]

alternative suggestion, which works better for me: this starts when HP starts D2. avoids both games being in night.

that would work as well.

[Eevee]

alternative suggestion, which works better for me: this starts when HP starts D2. avoids both games being in night.

that would work as well.

sounds good.

[Voltgloss]

[Jorbles]

What he said.

[mail-mi]

What he said.

[Voltaire]

I agree with lio.  Start after HP is out of night.

[Archetype]

Alright, cool. I'll start it when HP goes out of night.

[Archetype]

I have the rolled everything now. Just a heads up: The Flavor Name in your Role PM will double as a link to a wiki page that will help you to understand your character's background if you want to.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Alright, cool. I'll start it when HP goes out of night.

I'll come in too late to effect anything but still support this decision.

Actually, that's kind of scummy.  Vote: Umbrageofsnow

[Galzria]

Vote: Peter Capaldi, since it needs to be done.

[mail-mi]

Vote: WWTWDP so we can go into night and get this thing STARTED!

[Archetype]

Vote: Peter Capaldi, since it needs to be done.

I'm actually surprised that he's so old, compared to Matt Smith. I wonder if that'll decrease the show's popularity any.

[Galzria]

Vote: Peter Capaldi, since it needs to be done.

I'm actually surprised that he's so old, compared to Matt Smith. I wonder if that'll decrease the show's popularity any.

He's the same age as Hartnell was, although it was a very different show then. Still, he doesn't carry quite the same "Grandpa" feeling that Hartnell did, age aside. For my money it'll be nice. He's a really good actor, and will bring a more mature element back to the show. He'll be dark and forceful. He'll be good.

In an age of "Younger and Faster", it's certainly against the grain. But it's not the first time Doctor Who has gone controversial. I like it. It's a very, very intentional choice. Moffat has had plans for the coming stories since he wrote "Silence in the Library", and River commented about "How much younger [Tennant] was than 'her' Doctor".

Very excited.

[Archetype]

Oh, I agree. I like it too. But I wonder how many younger fangirls/boys will be lost.

Just a heads up: I'm actually leaving Thursday for a boardgame-filled (yay!) family reunion. So, to prevent this game from having a reeeeealy late start, roles will be handed out Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I also will need a co-mod during the time I'm gone, and so I have someone to talk to during the game instead of making all the dead players paranoid. So if you're interested, let me know!

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm very excited about Peter Capaldi.  I like Matt Smith a lot, but this will be a good change I think, rather than a never-ending stream of trying to be younger and more and more manic.

There will still be young companions, so I don't think young people will have any trouble staying around.

[chairs]

Vote: David Tennant

[mail-mi]

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Vote: David Tennant

Vote: Colin Baker Obviously the scummiest Doctor.

[Archetype]

Hmm I'm trying to figure out the best way to handle this.

Would people be OK with me starting this Wednesday morning? There will be little to no 'pregame chat' since mafia can talk during the day anyway, so the game will start once enough people have /confirmed. It gives this a little head start instead of HP, but I don't know what else to do since there is no way to start this game post-Thursday.

So that's what I'll probably do. Unless someone has a problem with it (That includes EFHW/Twistedarcher. I don't want them to feel like I'm hurting the productivity of their game by wedging mine in).

[yuma]

Hmm I'm trying to figure out the best way to handle this.

Would people be OK with me starting this Wednesday morning? There will be little to no 'pregame chat' since mafia can talk during the day anyway, so the game will start once enough people have /confirmed. It gives this a little head start instead of HP, but I don't know what else to do since there is no way to start this game post-Thursday.

So that's what I'll probably do. Unless someone has a problem with it (That includes EFHW/Twistedarcher. I don't want them to feel like I'm hurting the productivity of their game by wedging mine in).

pre-game chat for mafia is rarely very useful. Do what you think is best. This starting likely won't hurt the productivity of their game, but will actually increase it, because people will be interested in the start of a game and come to f.ds when perhaps they otherwise might not have and when they aren't posting here they will post in H.P.

This is why I think we tend to see spikes of increased participation in all games when blitz games are being run. (I have to be around for Blitz!!! Anything could happen! Well nothing is happening in blitz... Why I wait I might as well go reread the other game I am currently in...)

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't care one way or another.  I'm just waiting patiently for my psychic paper, happy whenever it gets here.

[Jorbles]

I'm less patient. Less discussion! More PMs!

(If you want to wait that's fine, but I don't really care if scum have some lead time to plot. I don't think it's very beneficial, it just lets them touch base with each other. Usually nothing major develops out of this time.)

[mail-mi]

I'm less patient. Less discussion! More PMs!0

This.

[sudgy]

(If you want to wait that's fine, but I don't really care if scum have some lead time to plot. I don't think it's very beneficial, it just lets them touch base with each other. Usually nothing major develops out of this time.)

Hey, it was fairly beneficial in RMM7, we got our fakeclaims all worked out, even if one of them was the worst fakeclaim the universe has every seen...

[Voltgloss]

Worse than Captain_Frisk fakeclaiming dayvig?

[sudgy]

Worse than Captain_Frisk fakeclaiming dayvig?

Did you see mine?

[Jorbles]

Your claim wasn't that bad, you just got caught by a cop so no one listened to it.

[Voltgloss]

Man, I really need to read all of Shakespeare mafia.

But I find it hard to conceive a fakeclaim more hilariously ineffective than a fakeclaim that gets mod-disproven within minutes of you making it. 

Frisk:  "I'm a dayvig.  Boom, you're dead!"
Mod:  crickets chirping
Town:  "lynch his ass"

Of course, by that time Frisk had already survived multiple days after being effectively copped on Night 1, and had completely deluded nearly all of the town into lynching several of their strongest power roles, so his fakeclaim was really just the culmination of an absolutely crazy ride. 

[sudgy]

Man, I really need to read all of Shakespeare mafia.

RMM7 was LotR.  That was where my bad fakeclaim was.  RMM5 (Shakespeare) I had a good fakeclaim.

[Twistedarcher]

Man, I really need to read all of Shakespeare mafia.

RMM7 was LotR.  That was where my bad fakeclaim was.  RMM5 (Shakespeare) I had a good fakeclaim.

I thought your fake claim there was fine, you just got copped by someone everyone thought was town.

[sudgy]

Man, I really need to read all of Shakespeare mafia.

RMM7 was LotR.  That was where my bad fakeclaim was.  RMM5 (Shakespeare) I had a good fakeclaim.

I thought your fake claim there was fine, you just got copped by someone everyone thought was town.

"I claim Human.  I claim Dwarf.  I claim Hobbit.  I claim Elf.

I CLAIM EAGLE!"

[shraeye]

Worse than Captain_Frisk fakeclaiming dayvig?

Hey. we won that one.

[mail-mi]

[sudgy]

[Just send me my PM]

Hehe...  I've already gotten MY PM...

[Voltgloss]

Worse than Captain_Frisk fakeclaiming dayvig?

Hey. we won that one.

Absolutely right.  And Sudgy's team won the LOTR game!

There's the takeaway, kids.  Ridiculous fakeclaims are the key to scum victory.

[Jimmmmm]

Sudgy's team won the LOTR game!

Woot!

(I didn't think his claim was bad, it just so happened that there were lots of Elves and Humans.)

[sudgy]

Although the mistake I made later was worse.  Voting when I'm a Hammerer and someone claimed a guilty cop result on me.

[ashersky]

Hmm I'm trying to figure out the best way to handle this.

Would people be OK with me starting this Wednesday morning? There will be little to no 'pregame chat' since mafia can talk during the day anyway, so the game will start once enough people have /confirmed. It gives this a little head start instead of HP, but I don't know what else to do since there is no way to start this game post-Thursday.

So that's what I'll probably do. Unless someone has a problem with it (That includes EFHW/Twistedarcher. I don't want them to feel like I'm hurting the productivity of their game by wedging mine in).

This start tomorrow, right?  When do PMs go out?

[Archetype]

Tomorrow.

[Archetype]

Pilot
...In the year 2032, A Dalek flagship is floating high above the Earth, just outside its atmosphere. Tendrils of taunt cables hang off the side of the ship, hooked onto an adjacent warehouse. The building was pulled directly off of the Earth’s surface with chunks of dirt still stuck to the complex’s base.  The walls peeling with red paint and the wood decayed. The entrance is slightly ajar with a long loading deck thrust through it leading to the mouth of the ship…

“Excellent!” Dalek Sec whizzed, his black body shining from the sunlight slipping through the cracks in the building.

“It truly is” Dalek Caan agreed, adjusting his eye piece, “With The Doctor preoccupied in the Capulaopa region, there is no way he can stop us from eliminating his friends…”

Across the two Daleks were three of The Doctor’s most trusted friends , cowering in a corner. They had been tricked by the Daleks through intricate subterfuge and deception into coming to this abandoned warehouse. There the Daleks used anti-gravity planks to lift the Warehouse high into space while surrounding it with an oxygen bubble. They then latched their space craft to the building’s fragile walls and boarded the defenseless hunk of wood and dirt. And there wasn’t a thing their prisoners could do to stop it.

“EXTERMINATE!” Both Daleks exclaimed, advancing closer to their captives. Weapons ready to be fired and eye stalks glowing red.
“Doctor! Doctor!” The three of them screamed, fearing what their captors would do to them.

They grew closer and closer until Dalek Sec stopped suddenly. “Do you hear that?” It asked.

Before Dalek Caan could even reply, a big shining space ship ripped right through the building’s wall. The nose of the ship was sharpened to a point and it continued going until it went clear through the opposite wall to. The ship’s thrusters were turned off as it screeched to a halt.

“What is this nonsense!?” Dalek Caan buzzed. "These are our prisoners!"

“EXTERMINATE!” The two Daleks fired deadly energy blasts at the vessel, burning a hole through the spaceship. The Daleks rolled their way up a ramp, created from falling boards from the ceiling above, and advanced through the gaping hole.

When they reached the other side, they turned to see a Cyberman Sentry with one of the captives in its arms. It turned to face the Daleks, its metal face as empty looking as always.

“STATE YOUR BUSINESS!” Dalek Sec exclaimed, his phaser pointed at the sentry and ready to be fired at any moment.
“An attack against The Doctor.” The Cyberman replied in a voice as hollow as his ship. It gripped the hostage tighter and turned to get back in its ship.

“STOP!” Dalek Caan commanded. The Cyberman paused. “Why do you need ourhostage?!”

“Disguise.” It replied. The sentry reached for its prisoner’s pocket and pulled out an invitation. It was dressed in a white envelope with a red seal on it. It slid it across the floor towards the Daleks.

“Read.” He said, and entered the ship. The thrusters fired up as it blasted off away from the warehouse.
The Daleks slit the seal and took out the letter, looking it over.

“A, PARTY?” Dalek Secasked.

“A Dinner Party.” Dalek Caan replied.

“The Doctor himself is hosting it!” Dalek Secwhizzed, showing more emotion than normal. “But only 12 people have received invitations, and we’re not one of them.”

“You fool!” Dalek Caan said, “That filthy cyberman sentry isn’t on the list either, and remember what he said? A disguise.”

“Like what?” Dalek Sec asked.

“The humans, you imbecile! Both us and the Cyberman will come dressed as humans! It’s perfect! And using a perception filter we’ll be able to sneak up and defeat  The Doctor for good!”

The Daleks turned to face the remaining prisoners. They had been listening intently to what their captors had been saying, but grew scared once they realized what they intended to do.

The Daleks’ cannons started glowing brightly, pointed directly at the hostages.

“EXTERMINATE!”

[Archetype]

PMs are being sent out. Reply via PM to confirm.

[Archetype]

They're all out. Remember that your Flavor Name doubles as a link about your character. I've also included these links into OP#2 for whoever is interested in reading about them. Game will begin once all but 1 person has /confirmed.

Scum, if you want your fakeclaims now, let me know.

[Archetype]

Episode 1
At the very edge of the universe, a massive mansion stands on the dwarf planet of Mysterium. An ominous fog covers the area with spires of hedges reaching to the heavens out of their pots. Ivy vines grow haphazardly across the giant stone walls of the mansion; branching out in all directions. In a nearby grotto, the famous TARDIS and various other space crafts are parked. A long driveway leads to the mansion's twin double doors with trees growing on either side. The entire building is surrounded by a perception filter, only allowing certain people admission to the grandiose complex...

“Are you sure this is the place?” Sarah Smith asked, looking at her invitation.

“Affirmative.” Her trusty robotic dog companion K-9 replied.

"Hello?" She asked reluctantly, pushing on the wood doors, but to no avail.

Sarah shivered from the icy wind's biting breeze. For a planet being so close to a star, it was terribly cold. Why would The Doctor have his Dinner Party here?

She could hear footsteps. She turned around to see a man. Er, no. creature. Walking towards her and her dog. She couldn't quite make out who this mysterious figure was until it emerged from the cloudy mist. The newcomer was dressed in a suit and wore black gloves and dress shoes which made faint clicking sounds as it walked. Its skin was a sickly pink color and wrinkly everywhere. It's head was bald and eyes slanted and oblong. Long tentacles were tangled together and dripped down from where its mouth should have been. A long chord extended from the thicket of tentacles to a white orb clasped in its right glove.

"Oh. It's just you Ood Sigma." Sarah Jane Smith said, relieved. K-9 barked happily.

"Greetings," It replied. The sound escaping from the ball it held tightly.

Sarah turned back to the door and tried ramming it again. K-9 assisted her this time.

"Is there a problem?" Ood Sigma asked.

"The door is blocked or jammed or something!" She growled, continuing to heave against the door.

"Let me try. I am here to serve"

Ood Sigma walked up to the brass knocker bolted to the wooden door. The actual knocker was missing, but the metal plate was still there. The Ood placed his telecommunication orb against the plate and began to growl. It began very softly, but grew louder. As its growling intensified it caused the orb in it's hand to glow brighter. His body began convulsing ferociously as the white ball grew brighter and brighter, almost blinding to look at. Suddenly, in a blast of the light, Ood Sigma and both doors collapsed to the ground.

"Are you alright?" Sarah asked, rushing towards the Ood.

"Of course." It said, standing up and brushing dust off its suit. "Shall we enter?"

The trio walked through the busted down doors and carefully hopped over couches, arm chairs, and bookcases that seemed to have been used to barricade the entrance, but now toppled over. Dust clouded their vision and they could barely make out the faint light of the torches placed around the entrance.

"Peculiar." K-9 remarked, weaving his way through a maze of toppled books.

Once the smoke had cleared, the group looked around to see that the room was very large and completely barren except for a raggity rug down on the floor. Ghost imprimints could be seen from where the furniture used to stand and a grand staircase lead to an upper floor.

"Hello?" Sarah Jane asked, peering her head around and looking at the glass chandelier hanging above her.

A barrage of footsteps could be heard from the level above. Suddenly, a crowd of 10 people marched down the steps, led by the great Judoon Captain.

"What are you doing here!?" The captain asked angrily, "How did you get past our defenses?!"

Ood Sigma held up its orb and Sarah pointed at it.

The Judoon snarled angrily and held up his gun and pointed at them. "State your name and intention!"

"Sarah Jane Smith, Doctor Companion. Invitation from The Doctor." Sarah replied.

"Ood Sigma, Mankind Companion. Invitation from The Doctor. " Ood Sigma replied.

"K-9, Sarah Jane Smith Companion. I'm with the lady." K-9 snickered.

The Judoon Captain lowered his weapon. "That means we all received invitations.." He muttered. The Captain and the throng of people behind him stepped down to the main floor. "That makes 12 attendees. The number of people that can bypass the perception filter. That means the killer isn't out there like we thought. Its one of us."

"Killer!?" Sarah Jane Smith "What do you mean by killer!?"

The Judoon Captain paused and solemnly replied "The Doctor is dead."

Everyone gasped except K-9 who said, "Can't The Doctor just regenerate?"

"Only if his body is in the open." The Captain responded. "Which isn't the case here."

"His body is missing?" Sarah Jane Smith replied, "Then we have to go find it!"

"We tried." The Judoon answered, making his way towards the trio of visitors. "But with no such luck. And it looks like the universe has already started to suffer from his death. Stars and planets are dying, resulting in a colder environment that may eventually freeze the universe all together."

Sarah shivered.

"But luckily the killer is in this very room. We just have to find them and thwart their plans." The Judoon Captain walked over to the doors and slammed them shut. "Before it's too late."

The multitude of people exchanged worried glances, save for three who smiled evilly in the darkness.

Day 1 Start!

Not Voting (12) Jorbles, Voltaire, Eevee, Voltgloss, Robz888, UmbrageOfSnow, nkirbit, yuma, ashersky, shraeye, mail-mi, liopoil
With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 will end on August 17th.

Thread Unlocked!

[mail-mi]

FIRSTIES!

[Jorbles]

SECONDIES!

[yuma]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

[Jorbles]

Okay Cannibals means we won't know the alignments of people who die at night, which means we won't know if we lose a PR (or if scum get NKed). I don't really think there's much to discuss with that until d2 though, am I wrong?

[mail-mi]

Okay Cannibals means we won't know the alignments of people who die at night, which means we won't know if we lose a PR (or if scum get NKed). I don't really think there's much to discuss with that until d2 though, am I wrong?

UNless we lynch them. Which would be bad. Don't lynch PRs, lynch Daleks. And cybermen.

[mail-mi]

Also noteworthy: Scum have daychat.

[ashersky]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

Massclaim now.

[yuma]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

Massclaim now.

you first.

[ashersky]

Only lynches show alignment.  NKs don't help us.  Being town sucks in this setup.

[ashersky]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

Massclaim now.

you first.

I am Amy Pond.  I don't know what that means.

[mail-mi]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

Massclaim now.

you first.

I am Amy Pond.  I don't know what that means.

Hm. That's weird, I got Dalek Sec. Is that important?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

so ash... what is the plan this time?

Massclaim now.

you first.

I am Amy Pond.  I don't know what that means.

It means you're more attractive than the rest of us.

[ashersky]

Only lynches show alignment.  NKs don't help us.  Being town sucks in this setup.

Further to this, here's an idea.

12 alive, right?  3 scum, 3 Town PR, 6 VT.  Mass claim reduces our mislynch chances from 9/12 overall (8/11 per townie) to 6/9 overall (5/8 per VT, 6/8 per PR).  Finding 3 scum in 8 is easier that 3 scum in 11.

We lose 1 or 2 PRs N1, depending on who the bad guys kill.  We might get a baddie killed by the Vig, too.  Worst case scenario, all misses and we have 8 alive D2 with 3 scum, but 1 PR remaining no matter what.  I think we're probably better off than that.

So I do support the mass claim.

[ashersky]

vote: mail-mi

You were able to ask for a fakeclaim.

[ashersky]

We should all claim our flavor names, 3 will be fake (2 if mail-mi is not lying).  We have 3 ICs on D1.  That really helps.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So we have a Vigilante, a Cop that gets a guilty result on the Vigilante, a town Roleblocker, and a Serial Killer, plus 2 Scum.

Anyone who kills knows the flavor of their kill, so that gives them a safe PR claim if they kill a PR.  That's certainly worth keeping in mind, but I'm not sure it means we should massclaim right away.

[mail-mi]

We lose 1 or 2 PRs N1,

And that's why I don't support it.

[ashersky]

A mass claim means the Cop will not investigate the Vig.

[mail-mi]

vote: mail-mi

You were able to ask for a fakeclaim.

I was? Oops.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Shouldn't we assume the Serial Killer will also target our PRs?  Or do we think the SK will count on the 1-shot immunities and leave them be?

[ashersky]

We lose 1 or 2 PRs N1,

And that's why I don't support it.

Not a good enough reason.  The RB could hit scum, saving one.  Someone will have a result or kill go through.

We get zero information after nights.  Days are all we have that are useful.  I think POE is the best way to narrow our results.

Let's have 3 ICs today, 1 or 2 tomorrow, and hopefully win by D3.

[ashersky]

Shouldn't we assume the Serial Killer will also target our PRs?  Or do we think the SK will count on the 1-shot immunities and leave them be?

I am assuming the SK will shoot a PR.  So a scum kill and an SK kill is, at most, 2 PRs.  But many ways it could be 1, including:

--they both target the same PR
--one of the killers is roleblocked

If they decided to shoot amongst the VT claims, they might hit each other, good for us, or at worst take out VTs and let our PRs get results, even better.

There are no downsides to the plan that haven't been mentioned.  At the very worst, we lose 2 PRs plus a VT if the vig shoots wrong.

[mail-mi]

Well everyone has to agree, or else we'lll only partial massclaim, and since neither yuma nor shraeye will agree, I don't think we should do it. Maybe on a later day.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So we assume the Cop and the Roleblocker die tonight (if we massclaim, and assuming the Roleblocker doesn't get lucky).

How valuable are Town cop results in this setup?  And if we're massclaiming, does that increase the utility of the Vigilante taking a shot in the dark, or should we direct the Vigilante based on the lynch-flip?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Well everyone has to agree, or else we'lll only partial massclaim, and since neither yuma nor shraeye will agree, I don't think we should do it. Maybe on a later day.

Absolutely on a later day.  With the lack of information, that makes a massclaim a no-brainer sooner or later.

The problem is that on later days, we can't count on fake PR claims getting couterclaimed, which is the best argument for doing it now.  On the other hand, it means we're very likely to have all 3 PRs dead by Day 3.

[yuma]

So we assume the Cop and the Roleblocker die tonight (if we massclaim, and assuming the Roleblocker doesn't get lucky).

How valuable are Town cop results in this setup?  And if we're massclaiming, does that increase the utility of the Vigilante taking a shot in the dark, or should we direct the Vigilante based on the lynch-flip?

theory talk... ugh... one thing worth noting however if we are going to talk theory is that there is pretty good odds (what 50%) that both the mafia and SK will target the same PR and there will only be one scum NK that goes through. This happened in MXIX day2 I believe where both teams targeted shraeye. But in a claiming scenario like this there is a chance that:

mafia targets Cop, SK targets Cop
Mafia targets Cop, SK targets RB
Mafia targets RB, Sk targets Cop
Mafia targets RB, SK targets RB

still bad, but not guaranteed that both will die.

[ashersky]

So we assume the Cop and the Roleblocker die tonight (if we massclaim, and assuming the Roleblocker doesn't get lucky).

How valuable are Town cop results in this setup?  And if we're massclaiming, does that increase the utility of the Vigilante taking a shot in the dark, or should we direct the Vigilante based on the lynch-flip?

Town results are 100% accurate insofar as they tell us good info.  Without a massclaim, the first cannibal result will just claim Vig, then get counterclaimed or not.

Where the mass claim helps is it reduces the chance to 0% that the vig gets investigated.  Same for the RB, who won't block town PRs.

The beauty of a mass claim and regular scumhunt within a smaller pool is that it negates the importance of PRs to an extent that we don't get so upset when they die at night, and we NEVER mislynch them.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So we assume the Cop and the Roleblocker die tonight (if we massclaim, and assuming the Roleblocker doesn't get lucky).

How valuable are Town cop results in this setup?  And if we're massclaiming, does that increase the utility of the Vigilante taking a shot in the dark, or should we direct the Vigilante based on the lynch-flip?

theory talk... ugh... one thing worth noting however if we are going to talk theory is that there is pretty good odds (what 50%) that both the mafia and SK will target the same PR and there will only be one scum NK that goes through. This happened in MXIX day2 I believe where both teams targeted shraeye. But in a claiming scenario like this there is a chance that:

mafia targets Cop, SK targets Cop
Mafia targets Cop, SK targets RB
Mafia targets RB, Sk targets Cop
Mafia targets RB, SK targets RB

still bad, but not guaranteed that both will die.

Well one (or both I guess) could decide to target the Vig though.

[liopoil]

Well crap, this started, which means I am going to be behind. oh well. let's wait a bit before we massclaim, shall we? and I don't like the idea of our vig getting shot. we need our vig I think.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What about a partial measure of having the Vigilante claim but not the others?  That makes losing only one PR more likely, and prevents the Vig being used to defend against a Cop result or actually being investigated.

[ashersky]

And as mentioned, since we get no info on NK Flips, but the killers do, safe fakeclaims are given out like candy.

I think a massclaim on a later day is significantly less useful.

Of course, I'm the only one to claim so far.

[ashersky]

What about a partial measure of having the Vigilante claim but not the others?  That makes losing only one PR more likely, and prevents the Vig being used to defend against a Cop result or actually being investigated.

That only helps the Cop, and no one else.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What about a partial measure of having the Vigilante claim but not the others?  That makes losing only one PR more likely, and prevents the Vig being used to defend against a Cop result or actually being investigated.

That only helps the Cop, and no one else.

It also helps the town.  My thought being that if we have one PR claim each day, we still have 1 left on Day 3, and only slightly increase the chances of fake claims (as compared to never claiming).

I was thinking Vig first because that's the one that ties into the most other things.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

And as mentioned, since we get no info on NK Flips, but the killers do, safe fakeclaims are given out like candy.

I think a massclaim on a later day is significantly less useful.

Of course, I'm the only one to claim so far.

I mean, claiming VT isn't a terribly forceful way to start us on mass-claiming.

[ashersky]

What about a partial measure of having the Vigilante claim but not the others?  That makes losing only one PR more likely, and prevents the Vig being used to defend against a Cop result or actually being investigated.

That only helps the Cop, and no one else.

It also helps the town.  My thought being that if we have one PR claim each day, we still have 1 left on Day 3, and only slightly increase the chances of fake claims (as compared to never claiming).

I was thinking Vig first because that's the one that ties into the most other things.

Vig claims D1.  Vig dies N1.
Cop claims D2.  Cop dies N2.
RB claims D3.  RB dies N3.

Not sure I follow how that's great.  I'd much rather just figure it all out today.

[ashersky]

And as mentioned, since we get no info on NK Flips, but the killers do, safe fakeclaims are given out like candy.

I think a massclaim on a later day is significantly less useful.

Of course, I'm the only one to claim so far.

I mean, claiming VT isn't a terribly forceful way to start us on mass-claiming.

I wasn't going to lie as town, and if I'm scum, VT is the only claim I have.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

And as mentioned, since we get no info on NK Flips, but the killers do, safe fakeclaims are given out like candy.

I think a massclaim on a later day is significantly less useful.

Of course, I'm the only one to claim so far.

I mean, claiming VT isn't a terribly forceful way to start us on mass-claiming.

I wasn't going to lie as town, and if I'm scum, VT is the only claim I have.

Obviously and obviously.  I just mean that you're saying you are the only one to claim, but as your claim is the claim that the vast majority will make, it isn't meaningful that no one else has followed you yet.  If we all start claiming VT, we POE our powerroles anyway.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What about a partial measure of having the Vigilante claim but not the others?  That makes losing only one PR more likely, and prevents the Vig being used to defend against a Cop result or actually being investigated.

That only helps the Cop, and no one else.

It also helps the town.  My thought being that if we have one PR claim each day, we still have 1 left on Day 3, and only slightly increase the chances of fake claims (as compared to never claiming).

I was thinking Vig first because that's the one that ties into the most other things.

Vig claims D1.  Vig dies N1.
Cop claims D2.  Cop dies N2.
RB claims D3.  RB dies N3.

Not sure I follow how that's great.  I'd much rather just figure it all out today.

It means the least useful PR is guaranteed to die first, rather than last, and that we're likely to have one on Day 3, whereas SK and Scum only need to not hit the same person ONCE to kill all 3 on Night 2 otherwise.  The odds of all PRs being dead by the end of Night 2 are pretty good with a mass claim.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Let's assume, for a moment, that we massclaim and SK and Scum kill randomly from among the 3 PRs.

1/3 chance they hit the same person on Night 1.
If they hit different people Night 1, they kill the other on Night 2 and we've lost all 3 PRs.
If they hit the same person, then 1/2 chance they hit the same person Night 2.

Which means only a 1/6 chance of having any PR alive on Day 3, and I really think the odds are on the Vig there.

Additionally, the Vig can kill the night he gets killed, so if we only claim the Vig, chances are all 3 PRs get a chance to use their role.

I think we agree that late-game PR claims should not be believed particularly strongly if we don't massclaim.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Well crap, this started, which means I am going to be behind. oh well. let's wait a bit before we massclaim, shall we? and I don't like the idea of our vig getting shot. we need our vig I think.

Why do you think the Vigilante is more of a positive utility role here than usual, when we can't see the results of their night actions (so we won't even know how many scum are left)?

It seems worse in this setup to me.

[ashersky]

Let's assume, for a moment, that we massclaim and SK and Scum kill randomly from among the 3 PRs.

1/3 chance they hit the same person on Night 1.
If they hit different people Night 1, they kill the other on Night 2 and we've lost all 3 PRs.
If they hit the same person, then 1/2 chance they hit the same person Night 2.

Which means only a 1/6 chance of having any PR alive on Day 3, and I really think the odds are on the Vig there.

Additionally, the Vig can kill the night he gets killed, so if we only claim the Vig, chances are all 3 PRs get a chance to use their role.

I think we agree that late-game PR claims should not be believed particularly strongly if we don't massclaim.

Unless the Vig kills another Town PR on N1.

We do agree that PR claims are worthless late in the game, as far as credibility goes.  After a night or two of killing?  Definitely.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Here's a wacky thought: What if we commit to doing the partial claim thing, and then have the town divide into 2 groups: Possible Roleblockers and Possible Cops:

That limits the scum and SK options later, while still preserving some PRs.

If the Vig claims today, along with Ash's VT claim, that leaves 10 other players (3 scum).

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Let's assume, for a moment, that we massclaim and SK and Scum kill randomly from among the 3 PRs.

1/3 chance they hit the same person on Night 1.
If they hit different people Night 1, they kill the other on Night 2 and we've lost all 3 PRs.
If they hit the same person, then 1/2 chance they hit the same person Night 2.

Which means only a 1/6 chance of having any PR alive on Day 3, and I really think the odds are on the Vig there.

Additionally, the Vig can kill the night he gets killed, so if we only claim the Vig, chances are all 3 PRs get a chance to use their role.

I think we agree that late-game PR claims should not be believed particularly strongly if we don't massclaim.

Unless the Vig kills another Town PR on N1.

We do agree that PR claims are worthless late in the game, as far as credibility goes.  After a night or two of killing?  Definitely.

Only 1/10 odds of that.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

And by 1/10 I mean 1/5 of course.  Because I'm gud at marf.

[nkirbit]

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

[mail-mi]

Let's assume, for a moment, that we massclaim and SK and Scum kill randomly from among the 3 PRs.

1/3 chance they hit the same person on Night 1.
If they hit different people Night 1, they kill the other on Night 2 and we've lost all 3 PRs.
If they hit the same person, then 1/2 chance they hit the same person Night 2.

Which means only a 1/6 chance of having any PR alive on Day 3, and I really think the odds are on the Vig there.

Additionally, the Vig can kill the night he gets killed, so if we only claim the Vig, chances are all 3 PRs get a chance to use their role.

I think we agree that late-game PR claims should not be believed particularly strongly if we don't massclaim.

Unless the Vig kills another Town PR on N1.

We do agree that PR claims are worthless late in the game, as far as credibility goes.  After a night or two of killing?  Definitely.

What if all but the Vig claim? Then vig knows who not to kill.

[Voltaire]

Oh god nightstarts. The worst.

Hey everyone! This game has already taken an interesting turn, but I'm not going to be able to read this stuff closely until tomorrow morning. Ash's plan strikes me as non-insane at first blush.

vote: Jorbles because it's been awhile.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

- Tasty Theme: Each player will be given their own flavor name. Scum players will receive a safe fakeclaim upon request.

Scum already have safe flavor-claims.  So really only the PRs come into this.

I'm okay with Ash's full-claim plan, by the way, I just want to make sure it is the best one for town.  If people think it is better than what I proposed, I'm for it.

[yuma]

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

well let UoS and ash talk themselves to death about it. I mean, they can talk all they want, but ultimately it isn't going to happen I don't think. There will always be people resistant to plans or claiming of any sort. Even if it is in best interest of town--or appears to be in the best interest of town--there will always be people like me who are saying "too risky for the supposed rewards."

So I guess let them talk... But keep in mind that it is an easy way for mafia to appear to be active when they really aren't.

[ashersky]

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

well let UoS and ash talk themselves to death about it. I mean, they can talk all they want, but ultimately it isn't going to happen I don't think. There will always be people resistant to plans or claiming of any sort. Even if it is in best interest of town--or appears to be in the best interest of town--there will always be people like me who are saying "too risky for the supposed rewards."

So I guess let them talk... But keep in mind that it is an easy way for mafia to appear to be active when they really aren't.

We can POE the non-claimers into it, as you know.  The majority have the power in open set-ups.  Sorry.

Also, mafia have daychat, as you pointed out, so that'll keep them scrambling anyway. 

Town literally has zero advantages this game.  What we have:

--No flip information to analyze after a night of multiple kills
--Unreliable Cop results
--A vig, which, as many would argue, can be a negative utility
--a scum team with daychat
--another scum with 1-shot bulletproof AND 1-shot roleblock immunity  (this is sort of an FBI Agent function of the RB, btw)

That's a lot going against us.  Attempting to level the playing field with claims isn't a bad thing.

[yuma]

Is it worth looking into the mafiascum games that town won and see what they did there? Or rather... I guess this is always the problem I have with claiming is that you see seem to see the end picture being all nice and rosy. I don't. I see the bad result most forefront in my mind. And when I weight the positive against the negative and then consider which I think will be more likely the positive or the negative the rewards almost never outweigh the risks associated... if there is an example of a game where claiming was beneficial and worked the way that you expected it, then maybe we should try and replicate that. But I am not willing to be an experimental trial run. Maybe you are braver than I am, or more of a risk taker. But I still say that town has enough good town players to win on our own merits of scum hunting, talking and voting (and town using their PRs in ways that are at least good, if not great). I think town tends to lose games by shooting ourselves in the foot rather than getting outplayed by mafia. And I think trying a plan or claim that hasn't been proven to work is more likely to shoot ourselves in the foot than do us good.

But like you say, you can PoE me if everyone but me agrees. You know where I stand on things like this. But I think you will find that there are other people beside me who will oppose this plan of yours.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

It looks like the SK almost always wins on Mafiascum, so let's NOT do whatever they do.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

The think is, Yuma, we have fewer tools this game than usual, and Scum have more.  And yes, we may be able to win with scumhunting and we should totally do it, but this is a really unusual setup that looks like it requires some examination.

And honestly, you do make sense here, I disagree with you, but in this case I see where you are coming from.  I think you're right in that we probably weight the risks differently.

[yuma]

It looks like the SK almost always wins on Mafiascum, so let's NOT do whatever they do.

well if anyone wants to go read their games I guess they can. I have tried to read through them before, but mostly I get a headache. Maybe I am just too used to f.ds's forum, which I think is simply but elegantly laid out (nice work theory!), but that plays is so hard to read. Too many background colors I think... But my real point is that all of these plans want to use the current game as a guinea pig. I guess if you want to try out a plan you have to start somewhere, but I would rather it didn't start with a game that I am currently trying to win and think it is possible to win w/o a plan.

[yuma]

The think is, Yuma, we have fewer tools this game than usual, and Scum have more.  And yes, we may be able to win with scumhunting and we should totally do it, but this is a really unusual setup that looks like it requires some examination.

And honestly, you do make sense here, I disagree with you, but in this case I see where you are coming from.  I think you're right in that we probably weight the risks differently.

well if you can convince everyone but me, I'll join cause I don't have a choice. But like I said, I expect some, if not all to side with me on this issue.

[nkirbit]

I dislike massclaiming because, for the most part, it eliminates the chance that the SK and mafia shoot at each other.  I'd rather leave that option open.  Just my initial thoughts on the matter.

[nkirbit]

Saying it's okay because they could shoot the same PR is bad, I think.  If they're shooting the same PR, they're still not shooting each other.

[ashersky]

The think is, Yuma, we have fewer tools this game than usual, and Scum have more.  And yes, we may be able to win with scumhunting and we should totally do it, but this is a really unusual setup that looks like it requires some examination.

And honestly, you do make sense here, I disagree with you, but in this case I see where you are coming from.  I think you're right in that we probably weight the risks differently.

This is my point.

No matter how amazing our scum hunting may be, unless we lynch scum D1-D2-D3, we're going to lose to one scum or the other.  Imagine a game where the number of players decreases each day, but you learn nothing about them from the mod.  That's this game.

We'll have people that just assume the NK victim was town.  But imagining there are still 3 scum alive when there are 2, or 1, actually makes scum hunting that much harder.

We are in a 300-like bad spot.  I think the mass claiming, (really, the PR claiming with no counterclaims), is the way out of it.

[nkirbit]

I also disagree that SK would necessarily shoot PRs.  They could, but that's not a given.  They need to hit a mafia member much more than the mafia members need to hit the SK.

Looking at it like town vs 3 evils is of course going to underestimate our position, because the SK and mafia are fighting each other as well.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I also disagree that SK would necessarily shoot PRs.  They could, but that's not a given.  They need to hit a mafia member much more than the mafia members need to hit the SK.

Looking at it like town vs 3 evils is of course going to underestimate our position, because the SK and mafia are fighting each other as well.

So what do you think of my alternative claim plan then?

[mail-mi]

Guys, also look at this. WE have numbers. 12 players with 3 scum is balanced. WE have 2+1 scum. That's huge. Like, really huge.

[nkirbit]

Just having the vig claim?  I dunno.  It gives mafia a non-SK target, and SK a non-mafia target?

Was your plan something else?  I really am burned out on all this theory talk and can only manage to skim, so maybe I missed it.

Mail-mi:  Yes, we do have better numbers than usual, but are at an information disadvantage.  So hopefully that balances out.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Just having the vig claim?  I dunno.  It gives mafia a non-SK target, and SK a non-mafia target?

Was your plan something else?  I really am burned out on all this theory talk and can only manage to skim, so maybe I missed it.

Mail-mi:  Yes, we do have better numbers than usual, but are at an information disadvantage.  So hopefully that balances out.

It really isn't that much to read at this point.

PR claiming becomes nigh-useless as the game progresses, since any scum that kills a PR now has that PR as a fake claim for them should they be about to be lynched.

My plan was to have 1 PR claim each day, Vig first, then the other two in some order depending on what is most valuable (I'm thinking Cop on Day 2 and Roleblocker on Day 3).

It does give scum a non-scum target, but the odds of scum hitting scum aren't that great, and this reduces the odds of our PRs hitting each other without doing the full claim all at once.  It also removes the possibility for scum to fake-claim later than Day 3 and makes them commit to it early.

[ashersky]

Yuma, as we continue to talk theory, would you like to explain how we can successfully scumhunt in this game?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Yuma, as we continue to talk theory, would you like to explain how we can successfully scumhunt in this game?

Something I'm really curious about: How do we scumhunt for the Serial Killer?

And what if it's Robz or Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm or someone who barely talks and has basically no chance to give themselves away, since no interactions with others can incriminate the Serial Killer.

I'm not trying to be facetious here, I'm fairly worried about the SK.

[yuma]

Yuma, as we continue to talk theory, would you like to explain how we can successfully scumhunt in this game?

I would suggest RVS. From my experience that is a fine and useful tool for town in finding scum. I personally don't tend to use RVS votes, but I do pay attention to other people's RVS votes (lack thereof) and responses to those votes and the building up of wagons. From there I would suggest that we can use wagon analysis, posting patterns and reads to forge ahead.

It is true that we are given less information from NKs. I fully admit that, obviously. Some of it can be reobtained by vig shots killing mafia or scum killing mafia (or the vig claiming down the road the information that he might have once claiming becomes more appropriate). But mostly I think my reads in games are based off flips from lynches and less so from flips from NKs...

Your point that people might think that a NK is mafia is valid, but I think maybe overstated. I think we are all intelligent enough to realize that after day2 and onward (depending on lynches of course) that we might have anywhere from 1-3 scum still in the game. We have dealt with similar scenarios in closed setups where we don't know how many mafia there are on a certain team. We have dealt with that in various ways and I think we can deal with it here by paying attention to possible mylo/lylo scenarios.

[yuma]

Yuma, as we continue to talk theory, would you like to explain how we can successfully scumhunt in this game?

Something I'm really curious about: How do we scumhunt for the Serial Killer?

And what if it's Robz or Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm or someone who barely talks and has basically no chance to give themselves away, since no interactions with others can incriminate the Serial Killer.

I'm not trying to be facetious here, I'm fairly worried about the SK.

I think the best way to get the SK is either to hope that mafia targets him, the vig targets him, or the cop targets him. Although we have had some success in lynching SKs... Cuzz I think was lynched as SK in MXVII, Galz as well in MIII, and perhaps others as well. Although this I think is actually one of the biggest problems with ash's plan. It /outs the cop immediately. The cop is going to be the SK's number one NK target if known because a cop result on mafia doesn't lose the game for mafia... there is another partner that can possibly salvage the game. A result on SK is game over for SK. So /outing the cop means a really good opportunity for the SK to potentially ride easy.

[mail-mi]

You want RVS? Then you can have it! vote: Yuma.

[ashersky]

How about a random D1 lynch?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

[ashersky]

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

[Voltgloss]

Oh hey, this started right when I fell asleep.  Just woke up and reading now.

[ashersky]

Oh hey, this started right when I fell asleep.  Just woke up and reading now.

Vote: voltgloss for sleeping.  Also, don't forget, you have daychat.

[Voltgloss]

Hardy-har, ash.  No, I don't have daychat, as I am not scum. 

ash's plan is worth careful consideration.  He's correct to note that one of our biggest disadvantages is the lack of info from nightkills, and the significant chance of late roleclaims being unproveably fake.  The problem is that it basically sacrifices the cop, barring a lucky roleblock.  I think we have to assume the mafia, at least, will target the cop N1.

My reaction is similar to yuma's - "how has this played out in mafiascum."  We have, what, 5 completed games there in this setup?  That's more research available than we typically have.  I'm going to try to review those games, eye-searing setup be damned.

On first read, I am not following UoS's plan.  It feels like it combines the worst of both worlds:  guaranteeing scum a PR kill every night + catering to scum's ability to masquerade as a PR they have killed.  What am I missing?

+1 to yuma for his "fine and useful tool" comment.

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

Here's a thought:  What if the cop, vig, and roleblocker all claim generic Power Role?  I.e., the power roles are all identified and we know they're IC's, but scum don't know which ones are the highest priority targets?  Seems to me that significantly increases the likelihood of our cop surviving N1, and moderately increases the chance of the two scumteams shooting the same target.  While also ensuring that none of our PRs target any other PRs tonight.

[ashersky]

unvote

I like VG's update to my plan.

3 PR claims, don't need to be named.  I'm the only one to have given a flavor name so far anyway.  Everyone can say VT/Not VT and be done with it.

If we 4 or more PR claims, we know where to look.

[Eevee]

Nice to see you again, Volt!

I don't know about claiming. No opinion.

yuma's reaction to all this planning is the most interesting thing to me this far. he opposes it in a pleasant, sort of agreeable way. while I like everyone playing nice, I was expecting something different.

vote: yuma

I think we need to work extra hard to create interactions and stuff so we get away of theory talk.

[liopoil]

I oppose claiming. creating IC's is the idea, right? I'm all for that, but here's the thing: the reason IC's are good is that they can't be mislynched. they also lead town and stuff, but that's not a big deal. however, our PR's can't be mislynched anyway, as long as we give them a chance to claim at L-1. sure, scum can fakeclaim, but they can do that in a massclaim anyway. so we have 3 people who are effectively ICs. the only other benefit is making sure our cop doesn't target the vig, so I might be willing to have just the vig claim.

[shraeye]

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

well let UoS and ash talk themselves to death about it. I mean, they can talk all they want, but ultimately it isn't going to happen I don't think. There will always be people resistant to plans or claiming of any sort. Even if it is in best interest of town--or appears to be in the best interest of town--there will always be people like me who are saying "too risky for the supposed rewards."

You can put me firmly in the camp of "too risky for supposed rewards".

Also, ash you are taking the wrong perspective here

No matter how amazing our scum hunting may be, unless we lynch scum D1-D2-D3, we're going to lose to one scum or the other.  Imagine a game where the number of players decreases each day, but you learn nothing about them from the mod.  That's this game.

We'll have people that just assume the NK victim was town.  But imagining there are still 3 scum alive when there are 2, or 1, actually makes scum hunting that much harder.

We are in a 300-like bad spot.  I think the mass claiming, (really, the PR claiming with no counterclaims), is the way out of it.

You are acting like there is a 3-man scumteam that get to coordinate 2 kills each night.  nkirbit and mail-mi both pointed out that this is a 2+1 scum scenario, where it's possible that the scum are actively and earnestly hunting eachother both at night and during the day.

Yuma, as we continue to talk theory, would you like to explain how we can successfully scumhunt in this game?

The same way we do every game.  Looking for opportunism, survivalism, and other scum traits.  We won't have nightkills to analyze, but really I feel like analyzing nightkills hasn't really gained us too much in recent games.  I feel like many mafia teams kill specifically to create a certain thread of speculation/analysis.  We WILL get the lynch info, and even more info when we lynch scum.

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

We have zero information right now, because the game is 12 hours old. Umbrage said my thoughts exactly.

[shraeye]

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

I agree.  Vote: nkirbit

[yuma]

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

Just because you have zero information RIGHT NOW. Doesn't mean we will have zero information toward the end of day?

Are you saying your reads don't change over the course of day1? Cause mine certainly do. And I would love to have some information day2 to work with as well. Wouldn't you?

[yuma]

yuma's reaction to all this planning is the most interesting thing to me this far. he opposes it in a pleasant, sort of agreeable way. while I like everyone playing nice, I was expecting something different.

vote: yuma

But why is the opposite of what you would expect scummy?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Here's a thought:  What if the cop, vig, and roleblocker all claim generic Power Role?  I.e., the power roles are all identified and we know they're IC's, but scum don't know which ones are the highest priority targets?  Seems to me that significantly increases the likelihood of our cop surviving N1, and moderately increases the chance of the two scumteams shooting the same target.  While also ensuring that none of our PRs target any other PRs tonight.

I like this better than what either Ash or I said.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Vote: Liopoil

I oppose claiming. creating IC's is the idea, right? I'm all for that, but here's the thing: the reason IC's are good is that they can't be mislynched. they also lead town and stuff, but that's not a big deal. however, our PR's can't be mislynched anyway, as long as we give them a chance to claim at L-1. sure, scum can fakeclaim, but they can do that in a massclaim anyway. so we have 3 people who are effectively ICs. the only other benefit is making sure our cop doesn't target the vig, so I might be willing to have just the vig claim.

For pushing in a horrendous direction of trusting L-1 claims in this game, and either not reading the setup or any of our discussion, or scummily trying to muddy the waters with bad arguments that will both derail good planning and sew confusion in the other people who said they are skimming.

Also, IF WE DON'T READ THE THREAD, WE CAN'T CATCH SCUM!

[Voltaire]

Boy missing starts sucks.

Much of what I was going to say based on what I read last night has already been said. Mafiascum shows a huge advantage for SK in this game it seems. I looked at the end of their most recent game and it was the town playing kingmaker between the last scum and the SK (the SK got away with seeming town I think).

I think POE is the best way to narrow our results.

The beauty of a mass claim and regular scumhunt within a smaller pool is that it negates the importance of PRs to an extent that we don't get so upset when they die at night, and we NEVER mislynch them.

Yes, yes, and yes. The problem is that we need everyone to participate, and yuma is in this game, and nkirbit has already signaled no. I don't like ash going ahead and claiming VT immediately, but this reads overeager town to be as opposed to scum. My biggest town read right now is ash.

I like Volt's (argh) update to ash's plan. Unless I'm not seeing something it's best of both worlds?

Looking at it like town vs 3 evils is of course going to underestimate our position, because the SK and mafia are fighting each other as well.

I do not like the nkirbit votes one bit. He's simply pointing something out that no-one else had pointed out yet.

How about a random D1 lynch?

Really? Just...really?

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

This, on the other hand, is good and is usually good. And I think daychatting mafia are going to naturally post less, and have to counter that.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't get Ash's weird desire to figure out who we're lynching Day 1 RIGHT NOW!!!1!

But it's probably some weird fish-for-reactions gambit or something, I don't know.

I don't believe his early claim was an accident, I think it was deliberate and planned.  Whether for good or ill is unclear, of course.  Could also just be for annoying Yuma for reactions or encouraging others to just jump in without thinking (again, whether this is town or scum behavior from him is debatable).  But I don't think it was an unthinking claim.

Scum have safe flavorclaims, Town have safe flavors, Amy Pond is gorgeous, um.......  I don't know where I'm going with this.

I think he's feeling townish.

[shraeye]

Looking at it like town vs 3 evils is of course going to underestimate our position, because the SK and mafia are fighting each other as well.

I do not like the nkirbit votes one bit. He's simply pointing something out that no-one else had pointed out yet.

Do you really think that the quote you pulled is why I voted for nkirbit?  Did you read what Voltgloss said?

[Voltaire]

Do you really think that the quote you pulled is why I voted for nkirbit?  Did you read what Voltgloss said?

Yes? I mean, only you know why you voted for nkirbit, but I can only assume it's you agreeing with Voltgloss. I read him more as "don't want to talk about this" followed by "town is missing something."

[Voltaire]

I read him more as "don't want to talk about this" followed by "town is missing something so I should talk about it anyway."

Finishing my thought better.

[Jorbles]

yuma's reaction to all this planning is the most interesting thing to me this far. he opposes it in a pleasant, sort of agreeable way. while I like everyone playing nice, I was expecting something different.

vote: yuma

Which is how he'd normally oppose a plan he disagrees with, at least for a while and then if it looks like town really wants to do it he says firmly that he won't participate. He normally starts out nice about it though. This reads like normal yuma for me (which is null for the record).

I think Voltgloss's update to the plan is better than the original proposed one, but what happens if we get 4 people claiming PR? Then we have a serious problem.

Here's a potential disaster scenario:
We get 4 claimants.
We mislynch a PR.
The other two PRs are killed at night. We've given up all our PRs for 1 scum who then claims to be Vig and that he NKed the scum claimant so we're not even sure that he's scum and then the SK kills him at night so we never find out that he was scum all along.

[Voltaire]

Although this I think is actually one of the biggest problems with ash's plan. It /outs the cop immediately. The cop is going to be the SK's number one NK target if known because a cop result on mafia doesn't lose the game for mafia... there is another partner that can possibly salvage the game. A result on SK is game over for SK. So /outing the cop means a really good opportunity for the SK to potentially ride easy.

Ignoring the part where we now have a better proposed plan, isn't this wrong? Can't SK also claim vig after D1 and have at least someone of a chance of being believed? If they're countered sure they're done, but they could have killed the vig or mafia could have killed the vig. Then I guess mafia knows they're lying and kills them...so maybe you were right.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Why would we lynch the 4th claimant?  At least on Day 1 it means 2/3 scum don't have a fake-claim, and it really opens them up to being targeted by the other scum team at night.

If 4 people claim, by all means, I say we leave it alone.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, no way am I believing someone about to be lynched on Day 4 or whatever claiming they are the Vigilante, too many chances for it to be scum with no counterclaim.

That's one of the disadvantages we have in this setup.

[Jorbles]

Also, no way am I believing someone about to be lynched on Day 4 or whatever claiming they are the Vigilante, too many chances for it to be scum with no counterclaim.

That's one of the disadvantages we have in this setup.

This is very very true, and not just for Vig. We can't trust any uncounterclaimed PR claims in this setup.

[yuma]

Although this I think is actually one of the biggest problems with ash's plan. It /outs the cop immediately. The cop is going to be the SK's number one NK target if known because a cop result on mafia doesn't lose the game for mafia... there is another partner that can possibly salvage the game. A result on SK is game over for SK. So /outing the cop means a really good opportunity for the SK to potentially ride easy.

Ignoring the part where we now have a better proposed plan, isn't this wrong? Can't SK also claim vig after D1 and have at least someone of a chance of being believed? If they're countered sure they're done, but they could have killed the vig or mafia could have killed the vig. Then I guess mafia knows they're lying and kills them...so maybe you were right.

Yeah, I didn't extrapolate it all the way out, but as you say I still think that is a flaw that makes the game significantly easier for SK. If the SK had killed the vig then, yes that is good spot to be in as only the SK has the vital information of who the vig is. But why would the SK kill the vig when the SK has a chance to kill the cop. So maybe on consecutive days the SK performs the kill on both the cop and the vig.

Mod question: If a player is targeted twice in the same night by different players will the flavor the next morning reflect that?

That is will the flavor have something like, "2 bullet holes were in his chest"? Or will the player just be announced dead? Also will SK kills and mafia kills and vig kills have a different way of killing or are all kills created equal?

I ask this question because if flavor is important we might be able to deduce from the number of kills whether or not SK, mafia or Vigs are still alive. If there are three separate kills the night before, then it is possible that all three types are still alive. But if only two deaths occur but there are three bullets, we know three. But if no flavor is given to signify that we are left wondering "is it two or three? and 2 shot the same player."

[Voltgloss]

Phone posting today.  Another mod question:  If two+ players night kill same target, who gets the cannibal info?

[Voltaire]

Volt, what do you think about my point about nkirbit?

I read him more as "don't want to talk about this" followed by "town is missing something so I should talk about it anyway."

[Archetype]

Mod question: If a player is targeted twice in the same night by different players will the flavor the next morning reflect that?

That is will the flavor have something like, "2 bullet holes were in his chest"? Or will the player just be announced dead? Also will SK kills and mafia kills and vig kills have a different way of killing or are all kills created equal?

All deaths will be reflected as 'Player X, Player Y, Player Z were vaporized'. So nothing distinguishes between the different killers or how many killed the target.

If two+ players night kill same target, who gets the cannibal info?

It's in OP#2. But, anyone that kills them will get the cannibal info.

[Voltgloss]

Volt, what do you think about my point about nkirbit?

I read him more as "don't want to talk about this" followed by "town is missing something so I should talk about it anyway."

I hear what you are saying.  I think it is less compelling than you suggest because the quote you pulled was the third of nkirbit's theory talk posts.  He didn't chime in just to make that point.  He was participating generally after saying he wouldn't.

I do agree the point nk raised is valid.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 1.1

Jorbles (1) Voltaire
yuma (2) mail-mi, Eevee
nkirbit (2) Voltgloss, shraeye
liopoil (1) UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (6) ashersky, Jorbles, Robz888, yuma, nkirbit, liopoil
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends August 17th.

[Voltgloss]

Robz, you out there?

[Voltaire]

Robz, you out there?

It's his birthday.

[Voltgloss]

Robz, you out there?

It's his birthday.

Ah.  Happy Birthday Robz!

[Voltaire]

I hear what you are saying.  I think it is less compelling than you suggest because the quote you pulled was the third of nkirbit's theory talk posts.  He didn't chime in just to make that point.  He was participating generally after saying he wouldn't.

I do agree the point nk raised is valid.

Fair enough.

Here's a potential disaster scenario:
We get 4 claimants.
We mislynch a PR.
The other two PRs are killed at night. We've given up all our PRs for 1 scum who then claims to be Vig and that he NKed the scum claimant so we're not even sure that he's scum and then the SK kills him at night so we never find out that he was scum all along.

What are the odds this happens? I can't figure out the WIFOM one way or another.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

What are the odds this happens? I can't figure out the WIFOM one way or another.

If we don't lynch the 4th claimant as I suggested, the odds are 0.

I think claiming is pretty stupid for scum in this setup if we did that, so by all means, let them do it.

[mail-mi]

Mod question: If a player is targeted twice in the same night by different players will the flavor the next morning reflect that?

That is will the flavor have something like, "2 bullet holes were in his chest"? Or will the player just be announced dead? Also will SK kills and mafia kills and vig kills have a different way of killing or are all kills created equal?

All deaths will be reflected as 'Player X, Player Y, Player Z were vaporized'. So nothing distinguishes between the different killers or how many killed the target.

If two+ players night kill same target, who gets the cannibal info?

It's in OP#2. But, anyone that kills them will get the cannibal info.

Hm. CAn someone rekill a dead player to get the info?

[mail-mi]

yuma's reaction to all this planning is the most interesting thing to me this far. he opposes it in a pleasant, sort of agreeable way. while I like everyone playing nice, I was expecting something different.

vote: yuma

Which is how he'd normally oppose a plan he disagrees with, at least for a while and then if it looks like town really wants to do it he says firmly that he won't participate. He normally starts out nice about it though. This reads like normal yuma for me (which is null for the record).

I think Voltgloss's update to the plan is better than the original proposed one, but what happens if we get 4 people claiming PR? Then we have a serious problem.

Here's a potential disaster scenario:
We get 4 claimants.
We mislynch a PR.
The other two PRs are killed at night. We've given up all our PRs for 1 scum who then claims to be Vig and that he NKed the scum claimant so we're not even sure that he's scum and then the SK kills him at night so we never find out that he was scum all along.

And another reason I don't like the plan much.

[shraeye]

Volt, what do you think about my point about nkirbit?

I read him more as "don't want to talk about this" followed by "town is missing something so I should talk about it anyway."

I'm really more concerned with what nkirbit has to say about it.  Or is he your partner, so you already know what he thinks?

[liopoil]

What the heck umbrage??? I have read the threadd AND the setup, which is saying something since I'm V/LA with occasional phone access only. I am fully aware of the no flip on NKs. D1 though, we can absolutely trust L-1 claimants if there is no counterclaim. guess what day we're on? D1.

[Voltaire]

I think claiming is pretty stupid for scum in this setup if we did that, so by all means, let them do it.

I agree, but we already have yuma, shraeye, and mail-mi registering disagreement, and that's already enough to scuttle it. Partial claims (or scum getting away with being one of 3 claims!) would just be the worst.

I'm really more concerned with what nkirbit has to say about it.  Or is he your partner, so you already know what he thinks?

Scumteams D1! Scumteams D1! Everybody's favorite. I mean, I'm interested in what nkirbit has to say about it too, but for me it's a null read from him right now. I just wanted to know everyone else's reasoning. I am assuming you agree with Volt now. I do not find either you or Volt scummy so for for this accusation. I would find people piling on further scummy.

What the heck umbrage??? I have read the threadd AND the setup, which is saying something since I'm V/LA with occasional phone access only. I am fully aware of the no flip on NKs. D1 though, we can absolutely trust L-1 claimants if there is no counterclaim. guess what day we're on? D1.

vote: liopoil for overreacting to one vote.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

however, our PR's can't be mislynched anyway, as long as we give them a chance to claim at L-1. sure, scum can fakeclaim, but they can do that in a massclaim anyway.

That's true today, but tomorrow it isn't.  The whole point of a massclaim (or the new, better 3 vague PR claims) is that scum can't fakeclaim without opening themselves up to being shot by the other scum faction.

Your reasoning is completely untrue tomorrow if we don't claim today.

The fact that this is D1 is irrelevant, since after Day 1 a massclaim is less useful, and becomes less and less so each day.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I think claiming is pretty stupid for scum in this setup if we did that, so by all means, let them do it.

I agree, but we already have yuma, shraeye, and mail-mi registering disagreement, and that's already enough to scuttle it. Partial claims (or scum getting away with being one of 3 claims!) would just be the worst.

But if we have 2 claims or something, I think PR!Yuma (or whomever) letting a scum fakeclaim be one of the 3 claims, making scum an IC would also be the worst.

And frankly, I'd be willing to consider that possibility if we go several nights with claimed PRs left alive.

vote: liopoil for overreacting to one vote.

I'm with Monsieur Arouet on this one, that reaction makes me more inclined to keep it there.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, Mail-mi's disagreement with the plan is agreeing with a worst-case that I already pointed out is impossible if play this smart.

Did you not read my posts on that, Mail-mi?

(Also, I'm increasingly getting the feeling that there is a subset of players who just ignore my posts.  Ashersky, and the great writer François-Marie Arouet read me, but other people seem to gloss right over.)

[Voltaire]

So far I have a town read on ash for his thorough thinking-through of claiming, and a smaller townread on Voltgloss for helping improve it, and the everytimeheseemsobvtown town read on UoS for more plan help. I see lio as slightly scummy for his reaction to UoS. And a whole lotta null on everyone else.

I don't believe his early claim was an accident, I think it was deliberate and planned.  Whether for good or ill is unclear, of course.  Could also just be for annoying Yuma for reactions or encouraging others to just jump in without thinking (again, whether this is town or scum behavior from him is debatable).  But I don't think it was an unthinking claim.

In case it wasn't clear, I do not think ash made a mistake at all. It was obviously a conscious choice.

There have been lots of weird posts in this game. Like these:

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

I really do not like this attitude. Scumhunt!

I think we need to work extra hard to create interactions and stuff so we get away of theory talk.

And then nothing. Scumhunt!

PPE: Posts.

[liopoil]

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

I'm hard-pressed to disagree with this, as it was basically my argument last night.  What do you think of the NEW plan that Voltgloss put out there?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

I'm hard-pressed to disagree with this, as it was basically my argument last night.  What do you think of the NEW plan that Voltgloss put out there?

Actually, I guess that is a response to the new plan as well.  I somewhat agree, but the alternative seems to me that we have to ignore PR claims as the days go by, which also keeps our PRs from helping.

[liopoil]

I think  VG's plan with PR's claiming generic PR is betterthan massclaim, but I still think there is too high a chance of losing our cop, and again, all 3 will probably be dead by D3 start. I'd prefer just the roleblocker+vig claiming to be a roleblocker/vig, though I'm unsure about that even...

[mail-mi]

Also, Mail-mi's disagreement with the plan is agreeing with a worst-case that I already pointed out is impossible if play this smart.

Did you not read my posts on that, Mail-mi?

(Also, I'm increasingly getting the feeling that there is a subset of players who just ignore my posts.  Ashersky, and the great writer François-Marie Arouet read me, but other people seem to gloss right over.)

I did, and i say that if we have a 4th claimant (if we even have 3 claimants) then we do leave it alone. I don't care much if we claim, but considering that there are others that won't, I won't unless everyone agrees.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, Mail-mi's disagreement with the plan is agreeing with a worst-case that I already pointed out is impossible if play this smart.

Did you not read my posts on that, Mail-mi?

(Also, I'm increasingly getting the feeling that there is a subset of players who just ignore my posts.  Ashersky, and the great writer François-Marie Arouet read me, but other people seem to gloss right over.)

I did, and i say that if we have a 4th claimant (if we even have 3 claimants) then we do leave it alone. I don't care much if we claim, but considering that there are others that won't, I won't unless everyone agrees.

Fair enough.

So, why'd you post that that was one of the reasons you disliked the plan, AFTER I had refuted it, and never follow up with your thoughts on my point until I pressed you on it?

[mail-mi]

Also, Mail-mi's disagreement with the plan is agreeing with a worst-case that I already pointed out is impossible if play this smart.

Did you not read my posts on that, Mail-mi?

(Also, I'm increasingly getting the feeling that there is a subset of players who just ignore my posts.  Ashersky, and the great writer François-Marie Arouet read me, but other people seem to gloss right over.)

I did, and i say that if we have a 4th claimant (if we even have 3 claimants) then we do leave it alone. I don't care much if we claim, but considering that there are others that won't, I won't unless everyone agrees.

Fair enough.

So, why'd you post that that was one of the reasons you disliked the plan, AFTER I had refuted it, and never follow up with your thoughts on my point until I pressed you on it?

Because instead of having 3 ICs, we would have 4 people with (almost) exactly 1/4 chance of being scum, which is as if we hadn't done the plan at all, and just given scum targets for the NKs.

[Jorbles]

I'm torn, there's really a strong argument in both directions for and against PRs claiming.

On the for side:
-We get 3 ICs probably. (they shouldn't claim their role)
-They actually get to claim.
On the against side:
-They all die very quickly.
-All their powers get stronger the later into the game it gets.
-We're reducing them to 1-shots basically because they're probably not getting more than 1-shot off before they die.

I guess I'd go along with it if everyone was willing to, but having less than all of them claim seems bad. Having 2 claim means there's a good chance neither lives to do anything useful. Their powers do get a lot more useful the later into the game it gets.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, Mail-mi's disagreement with the plan is agreeing with a worst-case that I already pointed out is impossible if play this smart.

Did you not read my posts on that, Mail-mi?

(Also, I'm increasingly getting the feeling that there is a subset of players who just ignore my posts.  Ashersky, and the great writer François-Marie Arouet read me, but other people seem to gloss right over.)

I did, and i say that if we have a 4th claimant (if we even have 3 claimants) then we do leave it alone. I don't care much if we claim, but considering that there are others that won't, I won't unless everyone agrees.

Fair enough.

So, why'd you post that that was one of the reasons you disliked the plan, AFTER I had refuted it, and never follow up with your thoughts on my point until I pressed you on it?

Because instead of having 3 ICs, we would have 4 people with (almost) exactly 1/4 chance of being scum, which is as if we hadn't done the plan at all, and just given scum targets for the NKs.

But if scum claims, they almost guarantee the other scum faction kills them, that's my whole point.  So why would they claim?  And even if they do, we scumhunt among the others, and let the two scum teams take care of whomever fakeclaimed.

And again, you seemed to be accepting that worst-case scenario when you quoted it, not expanding on it or having this other (fair) point.

[Jorbles]

Side note, if anyone claims Vig in the later stages of the game we should definitely lynch them because not only is there a good chance it's a lie, but we'd also discover the alignment of anyone they killed giving us a trove of useful info.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Side note, if anyone claims Vig in the later stages of the game we should definitely lynch them because not only is there a good chance it's a lie, but we'd also discover the alignment of anyone they killed giving us a trove of useful info.

100% agree with this.

Also worth noting: we can basically assume 2 kills per night in the absence of any claims (until we get closer to the end).  Odds of them hitting the same person are bad.  If we have any kind of claiming, we add a lot of wifom that makes them more likely to hit the same person, (so there is only 1 night kill) or the possibility if both SK and Mafia want to avoid that, of them accidentally letting someone live an extra night.

[Jorbles]

If scum (presumably a Dalek) claims they are guaranteeing that the other scum faction will kill them...but not immediately. There's a 2/3 chance they'd make it through the first night and at that point a claim of Vig or Cop could help them gambit and setup their team mate for the rest of the game.

@UoS: I read all your posts even if I don't always have anything to say about them.

[yuma]

What the heck umbrage??? I have read the threadd AND the setup, which is saying something since I'm V/LA with occasional phone access only. I am fully aware of the no flip on NKs. D1 though, we can absolutely trust L-1 claimants if there is no counterclaim. guess what day we're on? D1.

vote: liopoil for overreacting to one vote.

vote: voltaire for voting someone for reacting to a vote. I don't think he overreacted at all. I think he reacted. And I wonder if this is your way of jumping starting a nice little wagon early.

[yuma]

There have been lots of weird posts in this game. Like these:

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

I really do not like this attitude. Scumhunt!

I think we need to work extra hard to create interactions and stuff so we get away of theory talk.

And then nothing. Scumhunt!

PPE: Posts.

and both of these posts from voltaire strike me:

the first is a blatant misrepresentation of what nkirbit said... here is the full quote and was only the 45th post of the entire game.

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

he is reading the theory... and won't be contributing to theory. He says nothing about not scum hunting, nor has there been time to scum hunt just 45 posts into the game.

And then for Eevee: the post that volt quotes eevee is scumhunting! he voted for me! and it is his last post and hasn't posted elsewhere on the forums since. What do you want from him, to be glued to the computer anxiously awaiting every new post come in and have him comment on it?

I think voltaire is grasping for fake reads in an attempt to look like he is scumhunting and trying to get potential wagons started. I am going to continue to vote him.

[mail-mi]

There have been lots of weird posts in this game. Like these:

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

I really do not like this attitude. Scumhunt!

I think we need to work extra hard to create interactions and stuff so we get away of theory talk.

And then nothing. Scumhunt!

PPE: Posts.

and both of these posts from voltaire strike me:

the first is a blatant misrepresentation of what nkirbit said... here is the full quote and was only the 45th post of the entire game.

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

he is reading the theory... and won't be contributing to theory. He says nothing about not scum hunting, nor has there been time to scum hunt just 45 posts into the game.

And then for Eevee: the post that volt quotes eevee is scumhunting! he voted for me! and it is his last post and hasn't posted elsewhere on the forums since. What do you want from him, to be glued to the computer anxiously awaiting every new post come in and have him comment on it?

I think voltaire is grasping for fake reads in an attempt to look like he is scumhunting and trying to get potential wagons started. I am going to continue to vote him.

I like your way of thinking, and i think im gonna sheep this. vote: voltaire

[Jorbles]

I don't really have strong enough reads to vote for anyone at this point so I'm going to vote for... Robz.

Vote: Robz

Happy Birthday Robz! You look the same as the day I met you! (You still look like the spitting image of Link)

[yuma]

[mail-mi]

Hey, it's a good early D1 case. r u mad for calling your case good, brah?

[yuma]

No. I just like sheep. Bah!

[nkirbit]

Well, I did kind of say that I wouldn't talk about theory and then talked about theory.  My posts were immediately after reading what Ash and UoS had been saying, and were just my quick thoughts about their posts.  I do want to have input, but I'm just giving a heads up that I'm not going to sit here and really work through the game and help them come up with plans.. I have done so in the past, and am simply choosing not to this game because:

1) I think it clogs up the thread.
2) Ash, UoS, and others will do it anyway
3) I don't want to.

But I'm reading and will comment on what they're saying.

[Voltgloss]

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

[Jorbles]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

I think that's a very reasonable plan. Let's talk about mail-mi.

Mail-mi is usually sheepy no? I remember that being the case in the early games anyways, but then I took a break from playing and mail-mi's meta may have changed when I wasn't paying attention. So mail-mi sheeping = null read for me.

[nkirbit]

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

Par for the course, pretty much.  He's always sheepy.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I've only played with him in ongoing games, so no comment.

[yuma]

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

I would say the two times he was mafia he made more of an effort to pursue original thought and sheeped less.

To be honest I really don't mind if he sheeps or not. He knows enough about this game to know that we will hold players accountable for their sheeps just as much as someone who created an original case.

[Voltaire]

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

Sure. I support it.

Par for the course, pretty much.  He's always sheepy.

This. It's aggravating but it's a null.

vote: voltaire for voting someone for reacting to a vote. I don't think he overreacted at all. I think he reacted. And I wonder if this is your way of jumping starting a nice little wagon early.

vote: yuma for voting for someone for voting someone for reacting to a vote. unvote

Seriously though, it's the tone of lio's response that got me. There are ongoing games involved, but I'm totally comfortable for my vote: liopoil at this point on D1.

And as far as this is concerned...

the first is a blatant misrepresentation of what nkirbit said... here is the full quote and was only the 45th post of the entire game.

I'm here.  I'm going to pass on the theory talk, though.  I'm just tired of it at this point, haha.

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

he is reading the theory... and won't be contributing to theory. He says nothing about not scum hunting, nor has there been time to scum hunt just 45 posts into the game.

And then for Eevee: the post that volt quotes eevee is scumhunting! he voted for me! and it is his last post and hasn't posted elsewhere on the forums since. What do you want from him, to be glued to the computer anxiously awaiting every new post come in and have him comment on it?

I think voltaire is grasping for fake reads in an attempt to look like he is scumhunting and trying to get potential wagons started. I am going to continue to vote him.

...the fact that nkirbit isn't contributing to scumhunting is the entire point, whether or not he's talking about it. Again, and I've said this before, we can talk theory and scumhunt at the same time. I think both are good. So nkirbit saying "I won't do Thing 1" and then also not doing Thing 2 is going to get called out by me. It's not scummy, but it's not helping town.

[yuma]

...the fact that nkirbit isn't contributing to scumhunting is the entire point, whether or not he's talking about it. Again, and I've said this before, we can talk theory and scumhunt at the same time. I think both are good. So nkirbit saying "I won't do Thing 1" and then also not doing Thing 2 is going to get called out by me. It's not scummy, but it's not helping town.

I don't see what your point here is? Nkirbit never said he wasn't going to scumhunt. And I agree we can talk theory and scum hunt at the same time to an extent... but what does that have to do with this conversation?

[Voltaire]

...the fact that nkirbit isn't contributing to scumhunting is the entire point, whether or not he's talking about it. Again, and I've said this before, we can talk theory and scumhunt at the same time. I think both are good. So nkirbit saying "I won't do Thing 1" and then also not doing Thing 2 is going to get called out by me. It's not scummy, but it's not helping town.

I don't see what your point here is? Nkirbit never said he wasn't going to scumhunt. And I agree we can talk theory and scum hunt at the same time to an extent... but what does that have to do with this conversation?

Yeah, but then his only contributions were theory (and helpful). So I was encouraging him and Eevee to start scumhunting. Maybe I've misunderstood you?

[yuma]

I mean... after he posted the post that you originally quoted he had 3 posts in the course of ~ 2 hours. In that course of time no one else had scum hunted. He then left for the night. During that time you made your post about him not scum hunting. Why wasn't he scum hunting? Probably because he wasn't online...

You then make your post about him and I call him out on it. Nowhere does he say he won't scum hunt. He only says that he doesn't want to talk theory, but ends up doing so. I understand that... I have been there before, because when you see town doing something that you disagree with it is hard to not say anything...

So I guess I just don't see how you can call him out for not scum hunting based off the context of that post.

[yuma]

...the fact that nkirbit isn't contributing to scumhunting is the entire point, whether or not he's talking about it. Again, and I've said this before, we can talk theory and scumhunt at the same time. I think both are good. So nkirbit saying "I won't do Thing 1" and then also not doing Thing 2 is going to get called out by me. It's not scummy, but it's not helping town.

I don't see what your point here is? Nkirbit never said he wasn't going to scumhunt. And I agree we can talk theory and scum hunt at the same time to an extent... but what does that have to do with this conversation?

Yeah, but then his only contributions were theory (and helpful). So I was encouraging him and Eevee to start scumhunting. Maybe I've misunderstood you?

I think my main point is that you called out two people for not scum hunting when they weren't online to scum hunt. You called it weird. To me weird in this game = scummy. I don't see how anyone can be scummy for going to bed or otherwise being busy and not posting and not scum hunting when they aren't online...

And I think you likely didn't check whether or not they had posted and were just trying to drum up some suspicion on players who 1. yes haven't scum hunted because 2. they haven't been online much to do so. Combine that with your case vote on lio and I find it suspicious.

[Voltaire]

So I guess I just don't see how you can call him out for not scum hunting based off the context of that post.

All I can say is I was doing a re-read, saw multiple people posting stuff like that, and pointed it out. It was more than just that post. If you don't read it the same way, so be it.

I think my main point is that you called out two people for not scum hunting when they weren't online to scum hunt. You called it weird. To me weird in this game = scummy. I don't see how anyone can be scummy for going to bed or otherwise being busy and not posting and not scum hunting when they aren't online...

And I think you likely didn't check whether or not they had posted and were just trying to drum up some suspicion on players who 1. yes haven't scum hunted because 2. they haven't been online much to do so. Combine that with your case vote on lio and I find it suspicious.

I sit on my computer all day at work and check these threads religiously. It's entirely possible I project that onto people who can't.

Most importantly, weird != scummy. If I mean scummy, I'll say scummy.

[nkirbit]

So far I have a town read on ash for his thorough thinking-through of claiming, and a smaller townread on Voltgloss for helping improve it, and the everytimeheseemsobvtown town read on UoS for more plan help. I see lio as slightly scummy for his reaction to UoS. And a whole lotta null on everyone else.

I don't believe his early claim was an accident, I think it was deliberate and planned.  Whether for good or ill is unclear, of course.  Could also just be for annoying Yuma for reactions or encouraging others to just jump in without thinking (again, whether this is town or scum behavior from him is debatable).  But I don't think it was an unthinking claim.

In case it wasn't clear, I do not think ash made a mistake at all. It was obviously a conscious choice.

There have been lots of weird posts in this game. Like these:

I'm reading it, but don't expect any contributions from me.

I really do not like this attitude. Scumhunt!

I think we need to work extra hard to create interactions and stuff so we get away of theory talk.

And then nothing. Scumhunt!

PPE: Posts.

I dislike calling out two players for not scumhunting, what, 12 hours into the game?  If someone hasn't scumhunted for entire days, call them out then, but this does seem forced.  It's perfectly natural for town not to scumhunt their first posts of the game.. there's just not much at that point!

I agree with Yuma that this seems to be Voltaire stretching for reasons to call out players.

However, I don't necessarily find this scummy.  I don't stretching for reasons to vote someone early day1 is fine, because it does get interactions going, and is pro-town.  And I don't think that scum want to put themselves in the obvious position of calling out multiple players early day1 for what can be interpreted as bad reasons.  Unless it's WIFOM, but who knows.

[shraeye]

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

What are you referring to when you say "his behavior so far"...what are you noticing and asking about in particular?

[nkirbit]

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

[Voltaire]

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

[...]

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

Why do you think that's scummy? I think it's been pretty clearly laid out why the plan is pro-town. Ash himself did a good job at the start. What makes you think he wasn't trying to figure out of it was pro-town?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

I was feeling a bit of the same thing, actually, particularly with the switch to who to vote for being decided now, but does it feel that different from standard town behavior coming from Ashersky?  You've played with him much more than I, but that fits the games I've seen him play so far.

[nkirbit]

I guess in regards to Ash:

In the recent Blitz game when he was town, Ash proposed his plan, and immediately justified his reasoning.  He started by trying to convince everyone that his plan was pro-town, because he wanted it to happen.

Here, his plan was proposed very differently.  He didn't start with justification, that came later.  In fact, he started posts with language such as, "Further to this", indicating he was still thinking through his plan even after he proposed it.  Which would be fine, if it wasn't completely different from what I have seen from town!Ash before.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

[Voltaire]

I was feeling a bit of the same thing, actually, particularly with the switch to who to vote for being decided now, but does it feel that different from standard town behavior coming from Ashersky?

What do you mean by the bold?

[nkirbit]

No, that's not what I'm saying.  I'm still working through exactly why I'm feeling the way I do about it.

I think that if town!Ash thought mass-claiming was a good idea, he would have good reasons for doing so.  It's not like Ash to not have reasons as a town member.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

[Voltaire]

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I'll give you that it wasn't all in one post, but it was pretty quick -

Massclaim now.

Only lynches show alignment.  NKs don't help us.  Being town sucks in this setup.

I am Amy Pond.  I don't know what that means.

Further to this, here's an idea.

12 alive, right?  3 scum, 3 Town PR, 6 VT.  Mass claim reduces our mislynch chances from 9/12 overall (8/11 per townie) to 6/9 overall (5/8 per VT, 6/8 per PR).  Finding 3 scum in 8 is easier that 3 scum in 11.

We lose 1 or 2 PRs N1, depending on who the bad guys kill.  We might get a baddie killed by the Vig, too.  Worst case scenario, all misses and we have 8 alive D2 with 3 scum, but 1 PR remaining no matter what.  I think we're probably better off than that.

So I do support the mass claim.

The VT was a derpclaim before letting the rest of town talk, but I don't find anything suspicious about still figuring things out in such a unique setup. I know that I certainly didn't peg massclaim (later shifted to PR claim) as the best idea until reading other's (presumably town) points.

I do not see ash's actions as scum actions.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I was feeling a bit of the same thing, actually, particularly with the switch to who to vote for being decided now, but does it feel that different from standard town behavior coming from Ashersky?

What do you mean by the bold?

Either late last night or this morning, Ash switch from the plan talk to "Well, I don't have anything else to go on, how about a random lynch?"

I meant the things along that line, but yeah I guess I was pretty unclear, sorry.

[Jorbles]

I don't see ash's actions as being particularly scummy here. He likes to attempt unusual strategies and I don't think there's much consistency with how he presents them.

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't actually think Ash made a derpclaim, I think he claimed deliberately to try to get us claiming.  I just don't believe that implicates him as Scum or Town, one way or another.

[Voltaire]

I don't actually think Ash made a derpclaim, I think he claimed deliberately to try to get us claiming.  I just don't believe that implicates him as Scum or Town, one way or another.

I agree with the bold. We're using different words for different things. Maybe I'm using "derp" wrong.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

This exchange is what I was refering to.

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

I find that odd.  And like whoever it was (nkirbit? Voltaire?) when I say odd, I mean odd here, not necessarily scummy.

I think it's pretty clearly a bad idea, but I don't think it gains Ash anything if he's scum anyway.  I don't really know what to think of this.  Thoughts?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't actually think Ash made a derpclaim, I think he claimed deliberately to try to get us claiming.  I just don't believe that implicates him as Scum or Town, one way or another.

I agree with the bold. We're using different words for different things. Maybe I'm using "derp" wrong.

I take derp to mean a stupid screwup done on accident.

[Voltaire]

I think it's pretty clearly a bad idea, but I don't think it gains Ash anything if he's scum anyway.  I don't really know what to think of this.  Thoughts?

My opinion is anyone calling for a random lynch is trying to set a really cheesy trap for scum to catch them saying "Yeah guyz let's randolynch!" Or is scum themselves playing that WIFOM. Nobody will go along with random lynch. It's just starting the game with one fewer player unless you have interactions to look at.

[yuma]

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

I think his claiming was more a reaction to me than anything else when I said, "you first."

It is interesting because there are 2 scenarios I think of here.

1- is that he claimed mostly to get at my goat, after I egged him on. And also because he probably thought claiming was a good thing to do in the first place so why not?

2- is that if he says "no, I won't claim" to my suggestion that he go first then that lessens the credibility of his plan to claim a little bit. I think that reaction is more likely to be mafia than town as I think he could be worried about people saying "you want us to mass claim, but aren't willing to do it yourself? What?"

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

[Voltaire]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

[shraeye]

This exchange is what I was refering to.

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

I find that odd.  And like whoever it was (nkirbit? Voltaire?) when I say odd, I mean odd here, not necessarily scummy.

I think it's pretty clearly a bad idea, but I don't think it gains Ash anything if he's scum anyway.  I don't really know what to think of this.  Thoughts?

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

[yuma]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

[yuma]

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

had the same thought. And the same thought when volt said weird!=scummy. I understand weird!=scummy to some people, but why mention it?

[Voltaire]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

Right, but what I'm saying is, what if that was a bad idea for town? What if he's a PR? I understand it as a means of testing how serious he is, but it seems like it could have gone badly.

[ashersky]

A final note on the actual plan, as I see we've tabled that discussion overnight:

I will put little credence into any PR claim from D2 on.  Guilt result?  Scum lie.  Don't lynch me I'm Roleblocker?  Scum lie.  Our PRs have smaller chances of being believed and are more likely to be mislynched if we don't claim on D1 (or find another plan).

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

Because

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

[Voltaire]

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

had the same thought. And the same thought when volt said weird!=scummy. I understand weird!=scummy to some people, but why mention it?

Well, presumably because he wants ash to comment on it, or he wants people to remember it in future days once we have flips.

PPE: Or...

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

Because

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

A final note on the actual plan, as I see we've tabled that discussion overnight:

I will put little credence into any PR claim from D2 on.  Guilt result?  Scum lie.  Don't lynch me I'm Roleblocker?  Scum lie.  Our PRs have smaller chances of being believed and are more likely to be mislynched if we don't claim on D1 (or find another plan).

I agree with this, I just wanted to move on for now and come back to it, to reduce the "too much theory talk" complaints and "get the game going" so to speak.

Each day that passes, PR claims become less credible.

[shraeye]

No, that's not what I'm saying.  I'm still working through exactly why I'm feeling the way I do about it.

I think that if town!Ash thought mass-claiming was a good idea, he would have good reasons for doing so.  It's not like Ash to not have reasons as a town member.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

This is really really really stretching to find a scumread.  You're saying that because ash didn't present up-front a concise post explaining his entire position, that he's scum??  Or are you finding him scummy because he continued to talk about massclaims when people responded to him.  Yeah, continuing a train of thought is pretty scummy.......

My vote on nkirbit stands.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Well I do think it's potentially worth remembering and I really do want to see some commentary from Ash about it, but the specific mention that it was odd was because Jorbles wanted some expansion on my thoughts.

[nkirbit]

No, that's not what I'm saying.  I'm still working through exactly why I'm feeling the way I do about it.

I think that if town!Ash thought mass-claiming was a good idea, he would have good reasons for doing so.  It's not like Ash to not have reasons as a town member.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

This is really really really stretching to find a scumread.  You're saying that because ash didn't present up-front a concise post explaining his entire position, that he's scum??  Or are you finding him scummy because he continued to talk about massclaims when people responded to him.  Yeah, continuing a train of thought is pretty scummy.......

My vote on nkirbit stands.

I'm just saying he feels differently then when I've seen him present plans as a town member.

[sudgy]

Vote Count 1.2

yuma (1): Eevee
nkirbit (1): shraeye
liopoil (2): UmbrageOfSnow, Voltaire
Voltaire (2): yuma, mail-mi
Robz888 (1): Jorbles
ashersky (1): nkirbit

Not Voting (4): ashersky, Robz888, liopoil, Voltgloss
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends August 17th.

[shraeye]

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

Because

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

Well, it's the second time you've taken time to point out that something is unusual, or possibly scummy without publicly coming to that conclusion yourself.  Here is the other post, where you said that ash's claim could be scum behavior or town behavior.

Just pointing things out and seeing if town will decide that they're scummy is not the way to get your mislynch through, dude.

[yuma]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

Right, but what I'm saying is, what if that was a bad idea for town? What if he's a PR? I understand it as a means of testing how serious he is, but it seems like it could have gone badly.

if it is a bad idea for town--obviously I think it is--he shouldn't have claimed. But then again, I think him suggesting mass claiming was a bad idea. But then again, I asked him what the plan was. Why? Because I knew that he would come in with another plan like he always does. But the claim is his responsibility, not mine.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So as long as I'm bringing up things I think are worth remembering later, how come

I have read the threadd AND the setup... I am fully aware of the no flip on NKs. D1 though, we can absolutely trust L-1 claimants if there is no counterclaim. guess what day we're on? D1.

But

our PR's can't be mislynched anyway, as long as we give them a chance to claim at L-1. sure, scum can fakeclaim, but they can do that in a massclaim anyway.

Was used as a reason not to claim.  Now there are definitely some good arguments against claiming, but this isn't one of them and the idea that we can trust L-1 claims is bad, and the idea that it's equally easy in a D1 massclaim as it is at L-1 is silly.  This isn't some master plan, obviously, but trying to sway town's policy decisions with bad logic bothers me, and this seems like it could be setting Liopoil up to defend fake claims on later days.

It could also be that Liopoil was confused originally, but came back and got angry about my vote on him, and defended his original post rather than admitting he was wrong, or something along those lines.

This isn't a strong case by any means, but I think we should be on the lookout for things like this, and I know I'll be suspicious of Liopoil believing PR claims on later days (if we don't end up claiming.)

[ashersky]

I would point out, in my defense, that when I've opened a game day with a long concise "plan" post, I get immediately accused of cooking it up ahead of time in the scum QT.

Ironic now that since I didn't have a concise opening post, I still get flak.

[ashersky]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

Right, but what I'm saying is, what if that was a bad idea for town? What if he's a PR? I understand it as a means of testing how serious he is, but it seems like it could have gone badly.

if it is a bad idea for town--obviously I think it is--he shouldn't have claimed. But then again, I think him suggesting mass claiming was a bad idea. But then again, I asked him what the plan was. Why? Because I knew that he would come in with another plan like he always does. But the claim is his responsibility, not mine.

If it helps settle this, yuma's definitely, absolutely to blame for my claim.

[yuma]

and this is why I don't like using theory discussion for scum hunting. I tried to read what was going on here, but mostly it looks like the potential of "he has faulty logic so he is scummy"

I don't know if either player used faulty logic or not. I am not very interested in that side of things, but what I am interested in is noting that these sorts of "I am right, you are wrong" arguments tend to rarely accomplish much of anything when it comes to lynching mafia. sure keep track of them, but I imagine when lio comes back it will just turn into a giant misunderstanding of each other's posts.

[yuma]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

Right, but what I'm saying is, what if that was a bad idea for town? What if he's a PR? I understand it as a means of testing how serious he is, but it seems like it could have gone badly.

if it is a bad idea for town--obviously I think it is--he shouldn't have claimed. But then again, I think him suggesting mass claiming was a bad idea. But then again, I asked him what the plan was. Why? Because I knew that he would come in with another plan like he always does. But the claim is his responsibility, not mine.

If it helps settle this, yuma's definitely, absolutely to blame for my claim.

oh, well in that case, should I self vote?

[ashersky]

I think the first is most likely though. That just seemed like a typical ashersky reaction to me egging him on.

Why did you egg him on?

because he said we should mass claim...

Right, but what I'm saying is, what if that was a bad idea for town? What if he's a PR? I understand it as a means of testing how serious he is, but it seems like it could have gone badly.

if it is a bad idea for town--obviously I think it is--he shouldn't have claimed. But then again, I think him suggesting mass claiming was a bad idea. But then again, I asked him what the plan was. Why? Because I knew that he would come in with another plan like he always does. But the claim is his responsibility, not mine.

If it helps settle this, yuma's definitely, absolutely to blame for my claim.

oh, well in that case, should I self vote?

That would be amazing.  Literally.  Ah. May. Zing.

[Jorbles]

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

and this is why I don't like using theory discussion for scum hunting. I tried to read what was going on here, but mostly it looks like the potential of "he has faulty logic so he is scummy"

I don't know if either player used faulty logic or not. I am not very interested in that side of things, but what I am interested in is noting that these sorts of "I am right, you are wrong" arguments tend to rarely accomplish much of anything when it comes to lynching mafia. sure keep track of them, but I imagine when lio comes back it will just turn into a giant misunderstanding of each other's posts.

So if, hypothetically, Liopoil does use this as cover to believe a fake claim later and defend his hypothetical scumbuddy, that won't seem scummy to you?  I probably shouldn't admit things aren't rock-solid "scumslips" because then people only see the uncertainty rather than the point, but yeah it isn't a big deal, it's just a thing I noticed.

And I think the bigger value of pointing it out is that, on the chance he is scum and that was his idea, it won't make sense anymore.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

I have not.  I'm newer than Nkirbit and M. Arouet though.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

I have not.  I'm newer than Nkirbit and M. Arouet though.

Nkirbit has flipped scum in both Clue and Now For Something Completely Different Blitz.

[Robz888]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

[ashersky]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Also, as has been pointed out, this setup seems to go to the Serial Killer 2/3 of the time on Mafiascum.  I'm guessing the lack of information we have after night kills allows the SK and Mafia more cover for fakeclaims.

[yuma]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Bolded ashersky misdirection? MIII (Dark Ages)? MXI (Masquerade)? MXV (switch)? MXVII (Buffy, which you modded)? SK games aren't multiball games and town has won 4 games with SKs in them.

[yuma]

although I guess I shouldn't say that ash misdirected there... but rather that it is inaccurate from both parties to call this multiball...

[ashersky]

although I guess I shouldn't say that ash misdirected there... but rather that it is inaccurate from both parties to call this multiball...

I'm saying that Robz lied by saying that town often wins multiball games.  I pointed out how he was wrong.

I didn't claim that this game was multiball.  In fact, others pointed out early that they didn't like me looking at this game as 9 town versus 3 scum.

I clearly see this game as not multiball.

[ashersky]

although I guess I shouldn't say that ash misdirected there... but rather that it is inaccurate from both parties to call this multiball...

I believe we've only had one SK win ever, right?  Voltgloss?

[yuma]

although I guess I shouldn't say that ash misdirected there... but rather that it is inaccurate from both parties to call this multiball...

I'm saying that Robz lied by saying that town often wins multiball games.  I pointed out how he was wrong.

I didn't claim that this game was multiball.  In fact, others pointed out early that they didn't like me looking at this game as 9 town versus 3 scum.

I clearly see this game as not multiball.

Right I misunderstood what Robz originally said. But the point that town doesn't win multiball games has nothing to do with this game I think. So I am not very concerned that Robz said anything about it, even if it was false.

From my perspective as being mafia on two multiball teams, and having targeted mafia and having mafia target my partner and having targeted the same person as mafia (all three happened to me) I do think that that is a pretty big disadvantage for mafia. It does really hurt and I think that was the point robz was trying to make and I agree with it.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I was imprecise, because sure, this isn't exactly multiball. But remember when everyone was complaining that multiple scum factions make it impossible for scum to win? (M-VI is I guess the big example of this). That used to be a thing. And the thing of it is becaue scum can shoot scum, and we shoudl take advantage of that here, by not massclaiming.

[ashersky]

although I guess I shouldn't say that ash misdirected there... but rather that it is inaccurate from both parties to call this multiball...

I'm saying that Robz lied by saying that town often wins multiball games.  I pointed out how he was wrong.

I didn't claim that this game was multiball.  In fact, others pointed out early that they didn't like me looking at this game as 9 town versus 3 scum.

I clearly see this game as not multiball.

Right I misunderstood what Robz originally said. But the point that town doesn't win multiball games has nothing to do with this game I think. So I am not very concerned that Robz said anything about it, even if it was false.

From my perspective as being mafia on two multiball teams, and having targeted mafia and having mafia target my partner and having targeted the same person as mafia (all three happened to me) I do think that that is a pretty big disadvantage for mafia. It does really hurt and I think that was the point robz was trying to make and I agree with it.

Except scum still wins.  So I believe that negates it.

Like, take LotR1 for example.  Yeah, it's RMM, and the roles were nuts, and all that.  But you ended up with 4.5 scum in 13 players.  That's a lot of scum, which I think is actually detrimental to scum (as much as it hurts town) because you're going to end up killing each other or getting lynched more easily because the odds are against you more.  In that game, Dragons NK'ed and Orc N1, then the other Orc got lynched D2.  And scum still won (even with an Eagle! claim).

I find it funny we are arguing theory when you aren't a big fan of theory.  In the end, I think we disagree on this point, and it has no bearing on our alignments, because we'd disagree no matter what.

[ashersky]

Yeah, I was imprecise, because sure, this isn't exactly multiball. But remember when everyone was complaining that multiple scum factions make it impossible for scum to win? (M-VI is I guess the big example of this). That used to be a thing. And the thing of it is becaue scum can shoot scum, and we shoudl take advantage of that here, by not massclaiming.

I think this is flawed.

2 mafia: same chance of shooting the SK as any other town member, or PR.  So no different from a regular game with a Vig.  Put it another way: 1/9 chance of killing the SK; 3/9 chance of killing a PR; 8/9 chance of killing town.
1 SK: 2/10 mafia kill chance; 3/8 PR kill chance; 8/10 town kill chance.

You tell me they're more likely to kill each other; I point out that you are being ridiculous.

[ashersky]

SK numbers are off:

2/10 chance of hitting mafia
3/10 chance of hitting a PR
8/10 chance of hitting town

[yuma]

I find it funny we are arguing theory when you aren't a big fan of theory.  In the end, I think we disagree on this point, and it has no bearing on our alignments, because we'd disagree no matter what.

well when your theory talk is accompanied with votes... I feel compelled to discuss. Regardless of your theory points, I disagree with your vote on Robz, which may or may not have a bearing on your alignment.

[ashersky]

I find it funny we are arguing theory when you aren't a big fan of theory.  In the end, I think we disagree on this point, and it has no bearing on our alignments, because we'd disagree no matter what.

well when your theory talk is accompanied with votes... I feel compelled to discuss. Regardless of your theory points, I disagree with your vote on Robz, which may or may not have a bearing on your alignment.

Coming to your partner's aid?

[Jorbles]

Robz makes a very good point that by claiming we'll essentially be encouraging scum not to shoot each other, which I think is anti-town though not specifically beneficial to either of the scum teams. This is convincing enough that I am no longer on the fence about it and don't think PRs should claim.

Also unvote. (even though towny Robz is often scumRobz, I have no real reason to suspect him yet.)

[yuma]

I find it funny we are arguing theory when you aren't a big fan of theory.  In the end, I think we disagree on this point, and it has no bearing on our alignments, because we'd disagree no matter what.

well when your theory talk is accompanied with votes... I feel compelled to discuss. Regardless of your theory points, I disagree with your vote on Robz, which may or may not have a bearing on your alignment.

Coming to your partner's aid?

well since robz is more likely to be town than mafia, sure... coming to my town partner's aid. If you want to see it that way, go ahead.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I was imprecise, because sure, this isn't exactly multiball. But remember when everyone was complaining that multiple scum factions make it impossible for scum to win? (M-VI is I guess the big example of this). That used to be a thing. And the thing of it is becaue scum can shoot scum, and we shoudl take advantage of that here, by not massclaiming.

I think this is flawed.

2 mafia: same chance of shooting the SK as any other town member, or PR.  So no different from a regular game with a Vig.  Put it another way: 1/9 chance of killing the SK; 3/9 chance of killing a PR; 8/9 chance of killing town.
1 SK: 2/10 mafia kill chance; 3/8 PR kill chance; 8/10 town kill chance.

You tell me they're more likely to kill each other; I point out that you are being ridiculous.

But scum actually do tend to want to shoot each other--they see each other as rivals. I know when I am scum, I am far more worried than some other scum will shoot me than I am that I will be successfully lynched. And scum have a much easier time ferreting out other scum than town do. But anyway, if we massclaim, the SK will not shoot the mafia, and vice versa. And that's bad. Let's bank on good luck and not do that.

[nkirbit]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

[ashersky]

I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread.

Anyway, I think I see Robz (and yuma's) point as thus:

The Mafia team is 2 players of 12, so they know that the SK is 1 player in 9 (after a mislynch today).  They have a better chance of hitting the SK than town does, so let's hope they kill him.

That doesn't extend to the SK, as the SK is basically a town member who plays against town and has a Vig Shot.  He has no more information that the rest of us.

I think that's dumb.  The mafia team is actually (or SHOULD actually be) thinking that they know the SK/Cop/RB/Vig are 4 players in 9 (after a mislynch), and they have a 44.44444444% chance of killing off someone they want dead.  That's almost 50/50, people.

And you all are worried about outing the PRs because they might die?  They're going to die.  I'd rather get use and confirmation out of them.

[nkirbit]

I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread.

Anyway, I think I see Robz (and yuma's) point as thus:

The Mafia team is 2 players of 12, so they know that the SK is 1 player in 9 (after a mislynch today).  They have a better chance of hitting the SK than town does, so let's hope they kill him.

That doesn't extend to the SK, as the SK is basically a town member who plays against town and has a Vig Shot.  He has no more information that the rest of us.

I think that's dumb.  The mafia team is actually (or SHOULD actually be) thinking that they know the SK/Cop/RB/Vig are 4 players in 9 (after a mislynch), and they have a 44.44444444% chance of killing off someone they want dead.  That's almost 50/50, people.

And you all are worried about outing the PRs because they might die?  They're going to die.  I'd rather get use and confirmation out of them.

Well, except the SK is guaranteed a good target.  Everyone is a good target for the SK.  Not true for the Vig.

They might not die.  There's no reason to guarantee something happening when there's a chance that it won't.

[Jorbles]

Italics mine:

I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread.

Anyway, I think I see Robz (and yuma's) point as thus:

The Mafia team is 2 players of 12, so they know that the SK is 1 player in 9 (after a mislynch today).  They have a better chance of hitting the SK than town does, so let's hope they kill him.

That doesn't extend to the SK, as the SK is basically a town member who plays against town and has a Vig Shot.  He has no more information that the rest of us.

I think that's dumb.  The mafia team is actually (or SHOULD actually be) thinking that they know the SK/Cop/RB/Vig are 4 players in 9 (after a mislynch), and they have a 44.44444444% chance of killing off someone they want dead.  That's almost 50/50, people.

And you all are worried about outing the PRs because they might die?  They're going to die.  I'd rather get use and confirmation out of them.

I think it's worth pointing out that mafia would probably prefer getting the SK lynched by town to NKing because that way they won't have to shoot through the SK's 1-shot bulletproof status, which will take them 2 nights to do.

[ashersky]

I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread.

Anyway, I think I see Robz (and yuma's) point as thus:

The Mafia team is 2 players of 12, so they know that the SK is 1 player in 9 (after a mislynch today).  They have a better chance of hitting the SK than town does, so let's hope they kill him.

That doesn't extend to the SK, as the SK is basically a town member who plays against town and has a Vig Shot.  He has no more information that the rest of us.

I think that's dumb.  The mafia team is actually (or SHOULD actually be) thinking that they know the SK/Cop/RB/Vig are 4 players in 9 (after a mislynch), and they have a 44.44444444% chance of killing off someone they want dead.  That's almost 50/50, people.

And you all are worried about outing the PRs because they might die?  They're going to die.  I'd rather get use and confirmation out of them.

Well, except the SK is guaranteed a good target.  Everyone is a good target for the SK.  Not true for the Vig.

They might not die.  There's no reason to guarantee something happening when there's a chance that it won't.

And when the Vig kills a PR because he didn't know?  Good times?

We have 3 kills a night, barring the successful roleblocking and lucky double targeting.

1 kill is guaranteed to NOT hit mafia.
1 kill is guaranteed to NOT hit SK.
1 kill is guaranteed to NOT hit the Vig.

Someone good with numbers can explain the chances for each of those kills hitting one of {mafia - SK - PR - VT}.

We up the chance of Mafia and SK hitting a PR and lower the chance of a Vig hitting mafia by PR claiming.  They don't cancel each other out, but they have an effect.

We also narrow our lynch pool down to 3/9 today.  1/3 chance to lynch scum is pretty great.  D1 lynch + at least one N1 death from that pool means at worst 3/7 chance on D2, possibly higher.  These are good things.

Fakeclaims help town WAY more on D1.

These are positives to PR claiming that outweigh the "but they'll die on N1 and N2, boo hoo" arguments some are making, and I just don't but the "if we stay quiet, scum and SKs will just kill each other off and town auto-wins" crap people are slinging.

[ashersky]

Italics mine:

I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread.

Anyway, I think I see Robz (and yuma's) point as thus:

The Mafia team is 2 players of 12, so they know that the SK is 1 player in 9 (after a mislynch today).  They have a better chance of hitting the SK than town does, so let's hope they kill him.

That doesn't extend to the SK, as the SK is basically a town member who plays against town and has a Vig Shot.  He has no more information that the rest of us.

I think that's dumb.  The mafia team is actually (or SHOULD actually be) thinking that they know the SK/Cop/RB/Vig are 4 players in 9 (after a mislynch), and they have a 44.44444444% chance of killing off someone they want dead.  That's almost 50/50, people.

And you all are worried about outing the PRs because they might die?  They're going to die.  I'd rather get use and confirmation out of them.

I think it's worth pointing out that mafia would probably prefer getting the SK lynched by town to NKing because that way they won't have to shoot through the SK's 1-shot bulletproof status, which will take them 2 nights to do.

Another great point in my argument AGAINST Robz.  See Robz, mafia can't just kill off the SK for us.

[yuma]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

[ashersky]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

Oh right.  I'll stop posting.  I'll be sure to check in once every 48 hours.

[yuma]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

Oh right.  I'll stop posting.  I'll be sure to check in once every 48 hours.

vote: ashersky

[Voltgloss]

Haven't checked thread since my last post due to family commitments.  Sitting down to review now and will post my thoughts as I go.  Apologies if some of what I'm about to write is obsolete.

[Voltgloss]

Having read up to #255, yuma v. Voltaire feels more like town v. town than anything else.  nkirbit's response is, again, reasonable.  But I don't agree with the reasons for his vote on ash.  I agree with UoS's #255 that ash is playing like ash tends to play, whether town or scum.  His pushing massclaim as a plan is a nulltell. 

To answer shraeye's question:  I was somehwat surprised by mail-mi's blatant sheeping and sort of, ah, "flippant" tone in the game?  I guess that's the best word?  Not having played a game with him before I didn't know whether this was a departure from his usual practice.  Apparently it's not.

[Voltgloss]

I'm not saying that I agree with liopoil's thinking, but re: #284, I do think it's pretty clear that the second quote UoS lists was liopoil specifically talking about L-1 claims <i>on Day 1</i>.  I recall liopoil re-clarified as much later on.

So I guess that means I agree with yuma's take on it in #287.

[mail-mi]

Having read up to #255, yuma v. Voltaire feels more like town v. town than anything else.  nkirbit's response is, again, reasonable.  But I don't agree with the reasons for his vote on ash.  I agree with UoS's #255 that ash is playing like ash tends to play, whether town or scum.  His pushing massclaim as a plan is a nulltell. 

To answer shraeye's question:  I was somehwat surprised by mail-mi's blatant sheeping and sort of, ah, "flippant" tone in the game?  I guess that's the best word?  Not having played a game with him before I didn't know whether this was a departure from his usual practice.  Apparently it's not.

I'm just havin' fun.

[Voltgloss]

I have further thoughts on the massclaim theory front but I agree with UoS and yuma that it's no longer fruitful to pursue.  It's clear we're not doing it, and we have how everyone reacted to it, and that's the most important thing (I think) from a scumhunting perspective.

ash and yuma:  Don't make me turn this car around.

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Vote: Eevee.  Give us some substance, fuzzy.

[yuma]

ash and yuma:  Don't make me turn this car around.

Ash and I always have to have this sort of argument so that when we are scum partners we can fake it and make everyone think that we are town...

But really, my vote isn't because I am annoyed. It is because I am beginning to think it more likely that he is mafia.

[mail-mi]

Okay, so I like yumas case on VA so he's there, um, I'm on mobile so I'll look at the whole thread later.

P.S. I was just thinking, wouldn't it be great if we won N1? Mafia hits SK, SK hits mafia, vig hits other mafia.

[mail-mi]

For scum reads two and three I'd have to say fuzzy and shraeye for lurking (even though that's not much at this stage.)

[Jorbles]

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).
2. liopoil: he's been on, but I can't really remember anything he's said which is unusual. Usually I remember what he says quite clearly because it's quite out there. This noticeable difference from the norm reads scummy to me.
3. I dunno I don't really have anything strong or weak at this point for a third read. I don't love any of the other cases out there currently though.

[Voltaire]

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I think nkirbit comes out of this looking scummy. I think Robz's vote gave nkirbit cover for a poor vote.

Volt is solidifying as a town read for me, now more than ash. I'm seeing methodical scumhunting and I liked his plan from before, even if we've tabled it.

mail-mi, if you're town, we're going to need you to be something other than Mr. Sheep this game.

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

lio has yet to contribute anything other than theory talk and his I-stand-by-it scummy reaction to UoS.

Robz, Eevee have too little for me to evaluate.

[Jorbles]

Okay, so I like yumas case on VA so he's there, um, I'm on mobile so I'll look at the whole thread later.

P.S. I was just thinking, wouldn't it be great if we won N1? Mafia hits SK, SK hits mafia, vig hits other mafia.

In order for us to win N1 we'd have to lynch mafia and then the Vig and the remaining mafia would have to hit the SK while the SK hits the remaining mafia. ... And yes that would be awesome.

[Jorbles]

To build on why I find UoS scummy are these two things, which I admit I am sheeping shraeye on, but it's only because I'd already had the same line of thought:

Why point it out if you don't find it necessarily scummy?  Why tell us it was odd?

Because

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

Well, it's the second time you've taken time to point out that something is unusual, or possibly scummy without publicly coming to that conclusion yourself.  Here is the other post, where you said that ash's claim could be scum behavior or town behavior.

I don't get Ash's weird desire to figure out who we're lynching Day 1 RIGHT NOW!!!1!

But it's probably some weird fish-for-reactions gambit or something, I don't know.

I don't believe his early claim was an accident, I think it was deliberate and planned.  Whether for good or ill is unclear, of course.  Could also just be for annoying Yuma for reactions or encouraging others to just jump in without thinking (again, whether this is town or scum behavior from him is debatable).  But I don't think it was an unthinking claim.

Scum have safe flavorclaims, Town have safe flavors, Amy Pond is gorgeous, um.......  I don't know where I'm going with this.

I think he's feeling townish.

Just pointing things out and seeing if town will decide that they're scummy is not the way to get your mislynch through, dude.

1. Suggesting ash's suggestion of a random vote was more serious than it was to see if it would stick.
2. His fishy post where he can't seem to decide if ash is townie or scummy, but he really seems to want someone to tell him they find ash scummy so he can agree and more comfortably vote for ash.

This is the sort of play I would expect from someone who A) hasn't played scum before, B) likes to be involved in the conversation, and C) thinks that the best way to play scum is to subtly guide the conversation. Anyhow these are still early reads, but I'm going to park my vote on him for a bit and see what happens.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

[yuma]

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

[Voltaire]

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

These are reasonable all reasonable points, but I think I do not agree that what you are seeing is as intense as would be required to be scummy...that is, I can see why town!ash claims in the first few minutes of the game, I do not see ash as actually being upset enough to only post every 48 hours (that post just read as obviously sarcastic to me), etc. I see you had reasons for your vote though, real-life wrangling aside.

[yuma]

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

These are reasonable all reasonable points, but I think I do not agree that what you are seeing is as intense as would be required to be scummy...that is, I can see why town!ash claims in the first few minutes of the game, I do not see ash as actually being upset enough to only post every 48 hours (that post just read as obviously sarcastic to me), etc. I see you had reasons for your vote though, real-life wrangling aside.

sure. I am not arguing that he is definitely mafia. I don't do that. I have learned the hard way of having that sort of a stubborn attitude. But when I see something that I consider scummy, I vote. And then I go from there and see what happens. And I think I get pretty good results from that process, so I am going to continue it.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

1. Suggesting ash's suggestion of a random vote was more serious than it was to see if it would stick.
2. His fishy post where he can't seem to decide if ash is townie or scummy, but he really seems to want someone to tell him they find ash scummy so he can agree and more comfortably vote for ash.

Seriously?
1) I have no way to know how serious it is, I clearly suspected some kind of weird gambit (as someone else explained their guess on a few posts later).  I wasn't trying to see if anything would stick.  I would also note that I only got into that line of conversation because you asked me to expanded on a post.  And that post wasn't a case, it was a trying to guess why people were finding Ash scummy post.

2) I've come down on the side of finding Ash towny and I haven't voted for him, I thought that was clear.

This is the sort of play I would expect from someone who A) hasn't played scum before, B) likes to be involved in the conversation, and C) thinks that the best way to play scum is to subtly guide the conversation. Anyhow these are still early reads, but I'm going to park my vote on him for a bit and see what happens.

A)True
B)True
C)I'm not sure yet

But the fact is, I haven't been guiding the conversation, except for a semi-futile attempt to get away from the theory talk that I actually enjoy but annoys everyone so much, and either way, me having not played scum before and talking a lot would be an equally strong case against me in every game I've played so far.

Shraeye's vote on me seemed silly, given that I've been pushing more on my reads this early than in previous games, but you are not sheeping here, you're building a more extensive case...  which is mostly built on comments I made while clarifying a comment I made guessing why people were finding Ash scummy while I was finding him towny that you asked me to expand on.  I certainly wasn't driving conversation about Ash there.  If anything you were.

This is a stronger read for me than my read on Liopoil, not me being angry.  I'm serious about my
Vote: Jorbles

[Voltaire]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

See, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid.  But the last time I didn't vote for someone I thought said something scummy because they had just voted for me and I didn't want it dismissed as OMGUS, people also got mad at me.

I'm trying to accept that I can't please everyone, or anyone really.  I'm just going to vote and anyone who doesn't pay attention to why can yell OMGUS at me and if Jorbles someday flips scum, I'll vote you too

In all seriousness, I'm mostly agreeing with you again this game, Monsieur Arouet (I am going to keep using that even if I'm the only one).  And I'm disagreeing with Yuma but finding him towny for it.

[Voltaire]

I'm trying to accept that I can't please everyone, or anyone really.  I'm just going to vote and anyone who doesn't pay attention to why can yell OMGUS at me and if Jorbles someday flips scum, I'll vote you too

In all seriousness, I'm mostly agreeing with you again this game, Monsieur Arouet (I am going to keep using that even if I'm the only one).  And I'm disagreeing with Yuma but finding him towny for it.

And honestly I found you townier for it - but it gives me no read on Jorbles's alignment. The biggest thing to realize when you're town and someone votes for you is that it doesn't make them mafia. Town has bad cases too.

[mail-mi]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

MIFY

[Voltaire]

mail-mi, if you're town, we're going to need you to be something other than Mr. Sheep this game.

MIFY

[mail-mi]

mail-mi, if you're town, we're going to need you to be something other than Mr. Sheep this game.

MIFY

I'm in the middle of a game of dominion, I'll do some stuff maybe later.

[shraeye]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

But ash's early claim has nothing to do with the original reason you typed up.  So it's not a case of Robz writing your feelings better, it's a case of Robz having entirely different reasons, and you latching onto them.

[shraeye]

Okay, so I like yumas case on VA so he's there, um, I'm on mobile so I'll look at the whole thread later.

P.S. I was just thinking, wouldn't it be great if we won N1? Mafia hits SK, SK hits mafia, vig hits other mafia.

What is VA? What case does yuma have on it?

[Voltaire]

I'm in the middle of a game of dominion, I'll do some stuff maybe later.

Yet you're clearly following the thread. vote: mail-mi

[Voltaire]

But ash's early claim has nothing to do with the original reason you typed up.  So it's not a case of Robz writing your feelings better, it's a case of Robz having entirely different reasons, and you latching onto them.

This.

[mail-mi]

I'm in the middle of a game of dominion, I'll do some stuff maybe later.

Yet you're clearly following the thread. vote: mail-mi

I'm only checking in to read the new posts during opponent's turns. I'm not gonna reread in the middle of my game.

[shraeye]

Having read up to #255, yuma v. Voltaire feels more like town v. town than anything else.  nkirbit's response is, again, reasonable.  But I don't agree with the reasons for his vote on ash.  I agree with UoS's #255 that ash is playing like ash tends to play, whether town or scum.  His pushing massclaim as a plan is a nulltell. 

To answer shraeye's question:  I was somehwat surprised by mail-mi's blatant sheeping and sort of, ah, "flippant" tone in the game?  I guess that's the best word?  Not having played a game with him before I didn't know whether this was a departure from his usual practice.  Apparently it's not.

I was wondering if you were talking about the sheeping or something else.  I didn't notice the flippant part early, but on a reread, I see what you mean.  That's a nulltell for me, as my flippant-ness fluctuates from day to day.  Some days I just wake up with my sassypants on.  I think his comfortableness with doing that makes him slightly more town to me.

[Voltaire]

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

[shraeye]

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

Townvibes from Jorbles for burying the question he really wanted the answer to in a series of similar questions.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).

[shraeye]

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

Son, I'll get to my reads when I get there.  Settle down.

And in the meanwhile, what makes you think that I have a read on you?

[Voltaire]

And in the meanwhile, what makes you think that I have a read on you?

You called me and nkirbit partners. I assume you weren't being serious, hence the ? wondering if you have an actual read on me.

[shraeye]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Towns haven't won multiball on f.DS that often, because scumteams tended not to hit eachotehr, as I recall.  PokeMafia, for one, had a sort of built in device that made scumteams reluctant to hit eachother.  I don't remember enough of the other games to know if teams hit eachother.  But I'd suspect that the crucial difference in multiball games that go towards scum and those that go towards town is how often the teams hit eachother.  I agree with Robz that giving scum easy PR targets makes it much harder on town because it reduces crossfire.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

it gives me no read on Jorbles's alignment. The biggest thing to realize when you're town and someone votes for you is that it doesn't make them mafia. Town has bad cases too.

It isn't the vote that raises my eyebrows, or the fact that he posted a case about it.  It's that his case almost entirely hinges on an opinion he "baited" me into.

I put bait in quotes because I had the opinion and very well might have stated it, but he's finding me scummy essentially for responding to his request for clarification, and it seems like his case is based on ignoring that and pretending like I kept posting about Ash because I wanted to steer the conversation that way, which is not true.

It's not that I think his case is bad, it's that I think it was manufactured.

[shraeye]

Shraeye's vote on me seemed silly, given that I've been pushing more on my reads this early than in previous games, but you are not sheeping here, you're building a more extensive case... 

Let's play a fun game, where you tell me where I voted for you.  When you fail at that game, let's play a more serious one where you tell me why you're so paranoid about votes on you, that you made mine up.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

That game ends when I admit I was wrong, and retroactively imagined a vote on me from you when Jorbles said he was sheeping you.  I assumed sheeping meant he was voting too.

I was wrong, you are right.  Happy, Captain Sassypants?

[mail-mi]

I decided to reread volt a little. Posts not listed are null.

152 thinks we have a night start...? We had a confirmation stage start. Maybe he thinks it's a night start because he got to chat with his scumbuddies. Ever so slight scumread.

189 points out a post by nkirbit that people are not voting nkirbit because of. (you get what i mean.) slight scum read. other stuff in post is null read.

192 and 93 defends himself pulling wrong nkirbit quote. null.

he's for the massclaim plan, but only wants to do it if everyone is doing it. Same stance i have, null read.

218 again misrepresents nkirbit. Nk said he was not going to contribute to theory talk. not not contribute to scumhunting, and it was only about a day into the game. Slight scumread for that. Pointing out eevee is a big time lurker. null.

245 i don't have anything specific to point out, but it gives my townie vibes.

254 prodding and qquestioning, i usually assosiate this with town player,so slight town read.

267 talks about random lynch null read.

269 and 73 seems like maybe he could be trying to latch suspicion on to yuma for something not that scummy (I think you know what i'm talking about) so slight scum read.

329 a nice post that i get town vibes from.

344 votes me for "following the thread while playing a game of dominion, but not doing much." I really don't get the reason for that. Slight scum read.

And so, i leave with a slight summy read on VA, and I am totally comfortable with my vote on him

[shraeye]

man, that voltgloss/voltaire is tough.  By VA, do you mean Voltaire?  I don't like that abbreviation, as I keep reading it as some form of V/LA.  Also, when people call nkirbit by NK, i get confused.  can we quit with bad abbreviations?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Really, typing out Voltaire and Voltgloss isn't that hard, but the internet seems to love difficult-to-parse abbreviations.  I love Summoner Wars, but the forum community's use of abbreviations is the worst.

I'm going to stick with Monsieur Arouet, or M. Arouet for short.  Maybe someday I'll transition into calling Voltaire "MA" to further the confusion!

Seriously, though, let's just type out the names.  VA looks like Virginia to me.

[mail-mi]

man, that voltgloss/voltaire is tough.  By VA, do you mean Voltaire?  I don't like that abbreviation, as I keep reading it as some form of V/LA.  Also, when people call nkirbit by NK, i get confused.  can we quit with bad abbreviations?

Yes VA means Aire. Maybe I'll call me by the end part.

[Jorbles]

I can't say I'm shocked that UoS doesn't like how I hid my intentions when I was asking a question that he was answering. It's because I found his initial position suspicious and was giving him a chance to either clarify in a way that cleared it up in a towny way or to run with it some more in a scummy way. His OMGUS vote also doesn't shock me (best defense is sometimes a good offense being a valid plan sometimes). I am content to leave my vote parked on UoS while I take off for the weekend. Have fun guys!

[Voltaire]

Snipped this down to just the stuff I'm addressing...

152 thinks we have a night start...? We had a confirmation stage start. Maybe he thinks it's a night start because he got to chat with his scumbuddies. Ever so slight scumread.

189 points out a post by nkirbit that people are not voting nkirbit because of. (you get what i mean.) slight scum read. other stuff in post is null read.

192 and 93 defends himself pulling wrong nkirbit quote. null.

218 again misrepresents nkirbit. Nk said he was not going to contribute to theory talk. not not contribute to scumhunting, and it was only about a day into the game. Slight scumread for that. Pointing out eevee is a big time lurker. null.

344 votes me for "following the thread while playing a game of dominion, but not doing much." I really don't get the reason for that. Slight scum read.

Roughly in order:

1. We did have a night start! A real-world night start. I'm most active during the day at work, like a decent number of us, and the game started and took off at night when I couldn't follow closely.

2. I went over this with yuma already.

3. You are clearly following the thread and not contributing all that much (this post I am replying to is a notable exception). You've done some "no way scum does that stuff" like being Mr. Sheep and your "I got Dalek Secc" opening that I at first thought made you town but now I am wondering if you're offering me wine. It is enough for a D1 vote. Actually now that I think about it this sounds like yuma's case on ash. Hmph.

I too am now gone until Sunday. I'll need to re-read Jorbles/UoS when I get back plus whatever else happens. Hopefully fewer people will be lurking by then.

[mail-mi]

Aire:
1. Oh. RL night.

3. If you feel like it.

[sudgy]

Vote Count 1.3

yuma (1): Eevee
nkirbit (1): shraeye
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): mail-mi
Robz888 (1): ashersky
ashersky (3): nkirbit, Robz888, yuma
Eevee (1): Voltgloss
EmbrageOfSnow (1): Jorbles
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (1): liopoil
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends August 17th.

[nkirbit]

Still happy to be voting Ashersky.  Maybe I haven't explained it the best, but I just do feel like his actions haven't been that of a town member.

[Eevee]

I'm only caught up until around post 255 or so, but townread a on both nkirbit and Voltaire for stuff they did around there.

[yuma]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Towns haven't won multiball on f.DS that often, because scumteams tended not to hit eachotehr, as I recall. 

I don't know about that... In MXIX my team hit Galz and Robz's team hit TheMunch.
In MXX my team hit Robz.
I am pretty sure there were more examples from the earlier games--MVI maybe it was?--that had multiple scum teams that I didn't participate in. But the point remains, town is in a better position if scum teams have a chance of eliminating each other rather than being lynched.

[yuma]

It's not that I think his case is bad, it's that I think it was manufactured.

This, if true, is a compelling point. I for one will certainly go back and look at this--most likely tomorrow at some point.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So drinking, rereading thread, bored wanting to talk about something, I decided to reread the original nkirbit vote.  I don't find Voltgloss scummy for this, although I don't agree with it.  (And yes, I think I'm allowed to have that opinion without it somehow making me scummy, town are allowed some nuance you know.)

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

[mail-mi]

So drinking, rereading thread, bored wanting to talk about something, I decided to reread the original nkirbit vote.  I don't find Voltgloss scummy for this, although I don't agree with it.  (And yes, I think I'm allowed to have that opinion without it somehow making me scummy, town are allowed some nuance you know.)

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

I would look for posts that might have been pre-written, like, say, in a scum QT.

[nkirbit]

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

I'm rereading now.  I still don't get this.  We start every single game with zero information.. yeah, we may get less info here than other games, but why does that matter for day1?  If anything, this is the only day where we aren't at an information disadvantage as compared to a normal game.

I don't think this is a serious proposal, though.  Was it?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

I'm rereading now.  I still don't get this.  We start every single game with zero information.. yeah, we may get less info here than other games, but why does that matter for day1?  If anything, this is the only day where we aren't at an information disadvantage as compared to a normal game.

I don't think this is a serious proposal, though.  Was it?

Be careful asking questions like that, I hear it's scummy.

Vote: Jorbles

[nkirbit]

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

Townvibes from Jorbles for burying the question he really wanted the answer to in a series of similar questions.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).

I completely agree with this.  Jorbles is my largest townread so far.

[nkirbit]

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

This is scummy enough that I'm going to vote UoS for it.  I wasn't getting at that.  I think it's pretty scummy to say, "Nkirbit thinks Ashersky is scummy for that reason!" when really, you're the one that finds him scummy for that.

My feelings for Ashersky weren't well articulated at all, and I completely understand why people, such as Shraeye, were suspicious of me for having them.  Basically, I just have a gut feeling that Asherksy's plan is coming from scum here, and I still do have the feeling, but don't have any real evidence to back it up at this point so I'll drop it.  But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't find Ash scummy though!  I've said that over and over.

I feel like I can't win in any of these games.  I talk theory, so that's scummy.  I don't scumhunt enough so that's scummy.  I try to scumhunt so that's scummy.  I put a vote down so that's scummy.  I talk without putting a vote down so that's scummy.  You guys are so inconsistent game-to-game and day-to-day!

Don't know why I bother trying in these things.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

You know what, we're doing the 3-PR claim thing.  I'm deciding this unilaterally.  Others can join me or leave me out to dry, I don't care anymore, and hey, maybe it will save town some valuable time.

I am one of your power roles.

Which also means I'm the night-kill tonight.  Let's hope both of them go for me, so we can have more alive on Day 2.

[nkirbit]

It's a social deduction game.  People are going to find you scummy sometimes.  We mislynch town much more than we lynch scum.  It's just part of the game.

Unvote, given the claim.

I don't like the claim, but it is what it is.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

AT least it will save us 3 days of scumhunting me for nonsense and me arguing about it and having my blood pressure go through the roof whenever someone piles on to a stupid point.

I wanted to take it back as soon as I hit post, but insomnia, alcohol, anger, and no-editing-allowed being what they are, I guess it stays.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I admit, I'm kind of on tilt right now, to use poker terminology.  I get that it's a social deduction game, but for some reason the way people have been interacting with me and often not interacting with me has had me very frustrated.  I felt this way for a little bit at the start of CLUE.

For what it's worth, I'm sorry for spoiling your game.

Although I do think the claim plan has merit.  And hey, maybe I'll protect the other PRs.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

It's more that I feel like no matter what I do, it isn't that I had some phrasing or some particular action that someone finds scummy, yeah whatever vote me, it's that I seem to be criticized a lot for my style of play itself, while everyone else is allowed to play however.

It's not sheeping when Robz does it.
Mail-mi is always scummy.
Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm just likes to lurk.

But I seem to be scumhunted a lot based on my playstyle and method of speaking, rather than individual actions.  And I keep trying to change that up to be more pro-town and more helpful and easier to read and I put a lot of effort into this and tonight I'm in a foul mood and I'm tired and I'm unhappy and I'm just done with giving a shit about what you guys think of my playstyle.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

is online right now.

Hi Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[nkirbit]

Sorry, man.  I don't know what to say other than the fact that I have enjoyed playing with you in every game we've played together so far, and am glad you're here.  People finding you scummy really isn't personal, and I get that getting votes can be frustrating sometimes, I know, but it has nothing to do with a dislike of your playstyle.  We are just playing the game!

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Sorry, man.  I don't know what to say other than the fact that I have enjoyed playing with you in every game we've played together so far, and am glad you're here.  People finding you scummy really isn't personal, and I get that getting votes can be frustrating sometimes, I know, but it has nothing to do with a dislike of your playstyle.  We are just playing the game!

No, I'm sorry.  I don't mean to get all dramatic about it.  I like you guys too.  Just ugh.  This has not been a good day in RealLife™ and I kind of snapped there.

On the plus side, I figured out that the forum software will make horizontal scrollbars!

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Straw that breaks the camel in half kind of thing.

[Voltgloss]

Catching up from my last post now.

[Voltgloss]

So now we need to figure out if UoS had a minor kickball incident (as town) or manufactured one (as scum).

If he's SK, it's a really risky move, as it's basically inviting the mafia's nightkill.  If he's mafia, it's a less risky move, but still pretty gutsy - SK <i>might</i> not target him even if the SK thinks he's telling the truth, assuming the mafia is going to target him instead.

Without benefit of a full thread reread, I think UoS is most likely town at this point.

[Voltgloss]

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

Blitz players will have the most experience addressing this question.  To my eye though, I would expect (1) daychat to have a mild reduction in the frequency with whcih mafia post in thread - both because their time needs to be split between two threads, and because they may be waiting for their compatriot to respond to questions in their daychat before posting on a topic; and (2) more instances of mafia players changing their minds in thread, as a result of their being able to adapt plans on the fly.

[liopoil]

Dang, UoS, you seem to get a town PR every single game! (if you're town this time too). First glance, I believe him, but disagree with him claiming, unless he is the vig. btw, vig should shoot someone every night, I think.

[yuma]

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting:

can you tell me what the "it" is in the sentence "drew him into it" and the "that" in "scummy for that"?

[yuma]

You know what, we're doing the 3-PR claim thing.  I'm deciding this unilaterally.  Others can join me or leave me out to dry, I don't care anymore, and hey, maybe it will save town some valuable time.

I am one of your power roles.

and the winner for the over-reaction prize goes to: UoS. And what will his prize be?

An annoyed emotoicon from me  !!! Yay!

Seriously though. Next time. Let's make this decision when you are not drunk. Emphasis on the "let's" as in let us, emphasis on the "us"

[yuma]

It's more that I feel like no matter what I do, it isn't that I had some phrasing or some particular action that someone finds scummy, yeah whatever vote me, it's that I seem to be criticized a lot for my style of play itself, while everyone else is allowed to play however.

...

But I seem to be scumhunted a lot based on my playstyle and method of speaking, rather than individual actions.  And I keep trying to change that up to be more pro-town and more helpful and easier to read and I put a lot of effort into this and tonight I'm in a foul mood and I'm tired and I'm unhappy and I'm just done with giving a shit about what you guys think of my playstyle.

For someone who has yet to be mislynched this is sure a lot of unnecessary whining. So you get some votes. Big whooping deal. It means you are playing well. That is how I take votes when I am town. It means either I am getting town thinking about ideas (which some people are going to disagree with and find scummy, but hopefully more people find townie and agree with) or that mafia thinks I am dangerous and might try to mislynch me.

So, hey... you are playing well. You get votes, but aren't getting mislynched. The first doesn't matter, the second does. So good job, not on the claim (which I think was unnecessary, but on playing a game that moves  it forward w/o getting mislynched)

[Voltgloss]

Mod:  What time is our lynch deadline on August 17th?

All:  Lynch deadline is in one week, on Saturday.  The chance of having everyone available on a weekend to participate at lynch deadline is slim.  I therefore posit that:

1) our hard deadline is, for all intents and purposes, next Friday (less than a week from now); and
2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I'll be doing this myself in my next post, after completing a reread of events to date.

[nkirbit]

Voltgloss, I will make my list when I'm not on mobile, but ill put whoever I want into each group based on how I feel about them. If there isn't three in each category, I really don't have an interest in satisfying your arbitrary requirement

[sudgy]

Mod:  What time is our lynch deadline on August 17th?

9:00 PM Forum Time.

[yuma]

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I will get back to you once I take a look at UoS's accusation that Jorbles's case was manufactured. But hey, I'll give reads right now even before that and then I can give them after I do that reread and probably the rest of hte thread depending on how my time goes.

Won't lynch: yuma, UoS, voltgloss, Robz, shraeye (a lot of these are because there has to this point been no suspicion of these players up to this point, or that they are players that I can read significantly better on later days compared to day1.

Could lynch: mail-mi, Jorbles, Eevee, nkirbit, liopoil (honestly these are all pretty null reads, I don't know if I have any super town reads, even in the list above so to say that before my reread I would unwilling to lynch any of the above players if a compelling case were put up against them just isn't true. I could... but more that I don't think a compelling case is likely to be built up against them for various reasons)

Want to lynch: ash, voltaire (my two scum reads at this point in the game.)

[mail-mi]

Weekends shmeekends. Get on guys!

As per VG's request, my list

PREFER:
Aire
Fuzzy for lurking (that's not normal)
shraeye

COULD:
Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)
liopoil
nkirbit
Robz
asher

PROBABLY WON'T UNLESS I REALLY HAVE TO:
Gloss
yuma
Jorbles

WON'T:
UoS (I am treating him like an IC for the rest of the day)
mail-mi

I think that's everyone.

[yuma]

post count for reference:

1. Jorbles - 24
2. Voltaire - 37
3. Eevee - 6
4. Voltgloss - 21
5. Robz888 - 5
6. UmbrageOfSnow - 76
7. nkirbit - 24
8. yuma - 49
9. ashersky - 41
10. shraeye - 23
11. mail-mi - 35
12. liopoil - 8

[yuma]

Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)

good luck lynching someone that isn't in the game...

[mail-mi]

Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)

good luck lynching someone that isn't in the game...

Oh my gosh UoS talking about Jimmmmmmmmmm made me think he was in the game!

[yuma]

So UoS has alleged that Jorbles "manufactured a case against him:

It isn't the vote that raises my eyebrows, or the fact that he posted a case about it.  It's that his case almost entirely hinges on an opinion he "baited" me into.

I put bait in quotes because I had the opinion and very well might have stated it, but he's finding me scummy essentially for responding to his request for clarification, and it seems like his case is based on ignoring that and pretending like I kept posting about Ash because I wanted to steer the conversation that way, which is not true.

It's not that I think his case is bad, it's that I think it was manufactured.

This is the case:

To build on why I find UoS scummy are these two things, which I admit I am sheeping shraeye on, but it's only because I'd already had the same line of thought:

1. Suggesting ash's suggestion of a random vote was more serious than it was to see if it would stick.
2. His fishy post where he can't seem to decide if ash is townie or scummy, but he really seems to want someone to tell him they find ash scummy so he can agree and more comfortably vote for ash.

This is the sort of play I would expect from someone who A) hasn't played scum before, B) likes to be involved in the conversation, and C) thinks that the best way to play scum is to subtly guide the conversation. Anyhow these are still early reads, but I'm going to park my vote on him for a bit and see what happens.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

Here the quotes that Jorbles talks about and my opinion of them beneath it:

1-

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

followed by:

This exchange is what I was refering to.

How about a random D1 lynch?

What does that possibly gain us?  Why not at least try to make a good choice.

I have zero information to go on.  At least a flip with info would help that.  I've seen good responses to my claiming idea, both for and against.  I've seen little scummy behavior from anyone, at all.  Mail-mi's bad joke about his PM is all there is to go on.

Lurkers?  We could lynch a lurker I suppose.

I find that odd.  And like whoever it was (nkirbit? Voltaire?) when I say odd, I mean odd here, not necessarily scummy.

I think it's pretty clearly a bad idea, but I don't think it gains Ash anything if he's scum anyway.  I don't really know what to think of this.  Thoughts?

in response to Jorbles asking:

I don't remember him pushing for a random lynch. Do you want to build on that UoS?

I know that both shraeye and I were like, "why mention it if you only think it was odd and not necessarily scummy because--well at least I did--missed that it was in response to a question by Jorbles.

So UoS initially reacted to the point from ash about no lynch in a non-scum hunting way. He responded to it basically the same way that I did... as in, its a bad idea, let's not do it. I don't think he ever tries to paint ash as being scummy for suggesting it. (compare to me who thinks that perhaps ash used this, as well as other techniques and behaviors in an attempt to create his "normal persona.")

Add to this that it is only when he is asked about it again, by Jorbles, that he even considers the idea of it being scummy and ultimately gives his opinion that he thinks it is a bad idea (might be scummy, might not be) and then asks for other people's opinions.

2-

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

I responded to this post when UoS asked it and to me it looks like he is legitimately asking a question because in honesty it can go either way. I mention this in my case on ash... that this point, him claiming and pushing his plan in isolation could be scummy, but it could also just be ash.

It is also interesting to note the build up that Jorbles had in coming to a read/vote on UoS. First he first asks:

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

Followed by:

Here's something for people who've played more recently with them, have the players newer to me (nkirbit, UoS, Voltaire) played as scum before?

Followed by this:

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).

(which I had forgotten was in response to Voltgloss, so this doesn't appear quite as staged as it did before when I thought this was just a reads list that was posted kinda at random)

and then his vote post:

To build on why I find UoS scummy are these two things, which I admit I am sheeping shraeye on, but it's only because I'd already had the same line of thought:
 
....

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

so I can see where UoS is coming from in believing this case to be manufactured. I don't really agree with either of the two points that Jorbles makes on UoS. Both are weak--and I don't even mean weak for day1, I just mean all around weak points that to me aren't really indicators of alignment at all.

His build up in coming to a UoS vote was also somewhat scummy. Scum often doesn't want to just have a random read pop up, because then when people go back to reread them they will be suspicious and be like, "what!?! where did that read come from? Suspicious?" They want to avoid that, so to get around it I have often seen scum kinda breadcrumb their potential reads and slowly build them up along the way. Town sometimes does this as well, but it is a more natural progression I think. And before I realized Jorbles reads list was in response to Volt I felt pretty sure that this was on the scummy side... now I am a little less sure that I have all the info.

anyway... long post. I think I would move Jorbles to my want to lynch area, but not to the point that I am willing to unvote ash at this juncture.

[mail-mi]

Weekends shmeekends. Get on guys!

As per VG's request, my list

PREFER:
Aire
Fuzzy for lurking (that's not normal)
shraeye

COULD:
Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)
liopoil
nkirbit
Robz
asher

PROBABLY WON'T UNLESS I REALLY HAVE TO:
Gloss
yuma
Jorbles

WON'T:
UoS (I am treating him like an IC for the rest of the day)
mail-mi

I think that's everyone.

Sorry, jorbs should be in the could lunch category.

[EFHW]

/tag

[Eevee]

I think UoS is very likely to be town. If he was a SK, he for no reason just put himself out there to be killed by mafia, not good. Ditto for mafia (also could be counterclaimed). Frustrated town just makes the most sense. UoS, I really like your style of playing and I'm sure people finding you scummy is nothing personal, even if it feels a bit unfair. And fwiw, it IS sheeping when Robz does it.

[Eevee]

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

Blitz players will have the most experience addressing this question.  To my eye though, I would expect (1) daychat to have a mild reduction in the frequency with whcih mafia post in thread - both because their time needs to be split between two threads, and because they may be waiting for their compatriot to respond to questions in their daychat before posting on a topic; and (2) more instances of mafia players changing their minds in thread, as a result of their being able to adapt plans on the fly.

I totally agree with this too. The biggest effect will probably be scum being able to coordinate hammers / how they want to split themselves on the wagons and stuff. I think scum being able to coordinate their votes and defenses will make lynching scum day 1 SIGNIFICANTLY harder, because they can assign people to deflect scary looking wagons and don't have to bus "just to be sure".

[Eevee]

Voltgloss's deadline suggestions sound good to me, I approve.

It's truly terrible playing catch up, truly terrible. I'll do my best to form and articulate reads on everyone though:


UoS: the claimant, strong strong town read.

Voltgloss: The strongest nonclaimed town read (but I have a bias, his playstyle always reads towny to me). A lot of his posts I think hit the nail to the head, really good observation and analysis in my opinion.

liopoil - I think this is interesting, I feel he has two different personas, the one we are seeing here (I literally don't remember any of his posts), and then the much more controversial liopoil that gets into arguments with people (usually about theory, but still). Laying low is a scum trait, although I wouldn't expect scum lio to super lurk. He did anticipate being busy at the start of this game, though:

Well crap, this started, which means I am going to be behind. oh well. let's wait a bit before we massclaim, shall we? and I don't like the idea of our vig getting shot. we need our vig I think.

all in all I'm fairly null on lio. Maybe he just seems odd because he hasn't had time to post.

Robz: Wow, Robz has amazingly contributed even less than I have. I hadn't realized this at all. Vote: Robz The tone of the few posts is the kind of pleasant and constructive I still associate more with scum Robz. Scum read!

Jorbles: Reread him as well, nothing really stood out. Contributing, reasonable opinions, tried to build a case on UoS who I now "know" to be town. If I was reading this with the knowledge that Jorbles is scum, I'd be thinking "he is positioning himself well", but it's also reasonable town play.

nkirbit: I don't agree that his reaction to the theory talk was scummy - it was quite similar to my own, actually. I feel nkirbit is always heavily suspected day 1 (by others than myself), might be a playstyle thing. I find him contributions this far towny, no reason to suspect him really. I guess I would actually feel similarly about Jorbles and nkirbit, if it wasn't for the fact that Jorbles is not suspected at all and nkirbit is suspected a bit (that makes nkirbit townier and Jorbles scummier for me).

shraeye: I don't know how to read this guy. A lot of his posts seem to end in question marks. I haven't agreed with a lot of his posts, but I don't think that's much of an alignment tell.

mail-mi: Despite his relatively high post count, before his recent would/wouldn't post prompted by Voltgloss, the only thing he ever said about anyone in this game other than Voltaire was that he found me and shraeye scummy for lurking (no other explations). He sheeped yuma's very early Voltaire-case, then reread him on his own and found him slightly scummy again, keeping his vote there. To me mail-mi seems awfully passive, but continuing this line of thinking before the most recent game he was scum in ends is a bit dubious. Suffices to say, I don't find mail-mi towny at all.

yuma: I'm too lazy to reread the heavier contributors, partially because I don't think they make for optimal lynch targets anyways. yuma hasn't been the leader he sometimes is, but is still relatively high in the post count. As someone who lives by "especially day 1, I try to forget I'm scum and just play like I would as town", it's almost impossible to catch him day 1, I think he has given his honest opinions on theory stuff and called out suspicious behavior when he has seen some. I'll note that he doesn't seem overly towny to me like he sometimes does, but then add a caveat that scum has more incentive to try to do that. Null on yuma.

ashersky: I sympathize with yuma's "ash is trying to imitate his crazy plan town persona". Ash has a lot less posts than usual, but I don't know what if anything to make of that alignment-wise. The content of those posts however surprises me - ash has pretty exclusively only talked about plans, planning plans and finalizing plans. Like, very little interactions with anyone. Scum read.

Voltaire: Is contributing nicely, both to theory and to actually talking about other players. I see no reason to suspect him, although the "keep doing that" towny feel isn't overly strong either.

Scum reads:
Robz, mail-mi, ashersky

Would lynch:
liopoil, Jorbles, shraeye, (yuma)

Tentative town:
Voltaire, nkirbit, (yuma)

Town reads:
UoS, Voltgloss

[liopoil]

How do I not have the fewest posts on that post count. anyway, I really hope UoS is the vig... I agree he is unlikely to be scum.

[Robz888]

My VLA just ended. I am catching up now.

[Robz888]

Okay, I excerpted things I wanted to comment on... will start posting them now.

[Robz888]

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).
2. liopoil: he's been on, but I can't really remember anything he's said which is unusual. Usually I remember what he says quite clearly because it's quite out there. This noticeable difference from the norm reads scummy to me.
3. I dunno I don't really have anything strong or weak at this point for a third read. I don't love any of the other cases out there currently though.

Major, major town read on Jorbles here. Why? He didn't put down a third name, and I beleive him when he says he has no idea who to put down. Scum can, and would, easily come up with another person to include here. That Jorbs didn't bother is really, really massively town to me. Such a big town read for this.

[Robz888]

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Nothing to say, except yuma captures my thoughts on ash perfectly. Remember, ash is always up to do a crazy plan, regardless of whether he is town or scum. I think his crazy plan here might have been trying to get away with a VT claim as scum. Remember, there is extra benefit to that, here! Because you don't get shot by SKs that way.

[Robz888]

1. Suggesting ash's suggestion of a random vote was more serious than it was to see if it would stick.
2. His fishy post where he can't seem to decide if ash is townie or scummy, but he really seems to want someone to tell him they find ash scummy so he can agree and more comfortably vote for ash.

Seriously?
1) I have no way to know how serious it is, I clearly suspected some kind of weird gambit (as someone else explained their guess on a few posts later).  I wasn't trying to see if anything would stick.  I would also note that I only got into that line of conversation because you asked me to expanded on a post.  And that post wasn't a case, it was a trying to guess why people were finding Ash scummy post.

2) I've come down on the side of finding Ash towny and I haven't voted for him, I thought that was clear.

This is the sort of play I would expect from someone who A) hasn't played scum before, B) likes to be involved in the conversation, and C) thinks that the best way to play scum is to subtly guide the conversation. Anyhow these are still early reads, but I'm going to park my vote on him for a bit and see what happens.

A)True
B)True
C)I'm not sure yet

But the fact is, I haven't been guiding the conversation, except for a semi-futile attempt to get away from the theory talk that I actually enjoy but annoys everyone so much, and either way, me having not played scum before and talking a lot would be an equally strong case against me in every game I've played so far.

Shraeye's vote on me seemed silly, given that I've been pushing more on my reads this early than in previous games, but you are not sheeping here, you're building a more extensive case...  which is mostly built on comments I made while clarifying a comment I made guessing why people were finding Ash scummy while I was finding him towny that you asked me to expand on.  I certainly wasn't driving conversation about Ash there.  If anything you were.

This is a stronger read for me than my read on Liopoil, not me being angry.  I'm serious about my
Vote: Jorbles

Reflexive OMGUS is sort of scummier, when it is coming from a newER player.

[Robz888]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

See, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid.  But the last time I didn't vote for someone I thought said something scummy because they had just voted for me and I didn't want it dismissed as OMGUS, people also got mad at me.

I'm trying to accept that I can't please everyone, or anyone really. I'm just going to vote and anyone who doesn't pay attention to why can yell OMGUS at me and if Jorbles someday flips scum, I'll vote you too

In all seriousness, I'm mostly agreeing with you again this game, Monsieur Arouet (I am going to keep using that even if I'm the only one).  And I'm disagreeing with Yuma but finding him towny for it.

The thing I bolded: You are NOT doing that. You are paranoid that you can't please everyone. Scum do that.

[Robz888]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

MIFY

Ooh, don't like this. Jokes are scummy.

[Robz888]

I'm in the middle of a game of dominion, I'll do some stuff maybe later.

Yet you're clearly following the thread. vote: mail-mi

I'm only checking in to read the new posts during opponent's turns. I'm not gonna reread in the middle of my game.

Okay, I do that, too. And only as town. Still.

[Robz888]

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Bolded Robz scum lie.  DS9?  Masons and Monks?  LotR1?  PokeMafia?  Town DOES NOT win multiball.  Ever.

vote: Robz

Towns haven't won multiball on f.DS that often, because scumteams tended not to hit eachotehr, as I recall. 

I don't know about that... In MXIX my team hit Galz and Robz's team hit TheMunch.
In MXX my team hit Robz.
I am pretty sure there were more examples from the earlier games--MVI maybe it was?--that had multiple scum teams that I didn't participate in. But the point remains, town is in a better position if scum teams have a chance of eliminating each other rather than being lynched.

Yeah, M-VI is the big one. And it was more than just night actions. We had 2 scum teams and an SK, and they (the two scum teams in particular) consistently went to extreme lengths to hurt each other to such a degree that town won easily.

I was a Mafia Jack-of-All-Trades, I investigated and found a Werewolf (the other scum team), and instead of discreetly murdering him, I outed him to town the next day. Guess what? He revealed his role as Werewolf Roleblocker, whose roleblocking would fail against the Mafia, and he had roleblocked me. I therefore outed myself to his partners and anyone in the town who believed him. Next night I used my hiding power to become totally immune, and a different player claimed to have invesrtigated me and found out that I was indeed Mafia. I knew he was lying, since I had been investigative immune, meaning that he was simply a Werewolf who knew I was Mafia (because he knew his dead partner was truthful about the roleblocking thing). I explained this to the town. Both our teams were subsequently exterminated.

[Robz888]

I don't find Ash scummy though!  I've said that over and over.

I feel like I can't win in any of these games.  I talk theory, so that's scummy.  I don't scumhunt enough so that's scummy.  I try to scumhunt so that's scummy.  I put a vote down so that's scummy.  I talk without putting a vote down so that's scummy.  You guys are so inconsistent game-to-game and day-to-day!

Don't know why I bother trying in these things.

Yup yup yup, we totally are. But the thing is, you just gotta brush it off. And even if we were reading you more accurately (or what you claim would be more accurately) that doesn't win us the game. We win by catching all the scum. And going after people for inconsitent reasons is just kind of something we do. It's not even a bad thing. Don't take it to heart.

I think scum are more likely to take it to heart, though. Although it could be that you in particular are a kind of sensitive townie persona.

[Robz888]

You know what, we're doing the 3-PR claim thing.  I'm deciding this unilaterally.  Others can join me or leave me out to dry, I don't care anymore, and hey, maybe it will save town some valuable time.

I am one of your power roles.

Which also means I'm the night-kill tonight.  Let's hope both of them go for me, so we can have more alive on Day 2.

UGH UGH UGH UGH UGH. No. Bad.

This does not even mean you are the night kill for sure! Both scum factions could say, "Hell, leave him alive. That will confuse them. Let the other scum deal with it." And then you survive and we are confused.

And because of that, we can't even--and shouldn't even--go ohh, you must be town, at least we know you are town. You could just be lying, I don't think lying here like dooms you as town. Well, it makes you highly unlikely to be the SK, probably.

Still, it's bad. You weren't even close to being lynched. Save claims for L-1, people!!!

[Robz888]

Mod:  What time is our lynch deadline on August 17th?

All:  Lynch deadline is in one week, on Saturday.  The chance of having everyone available on a weekend to participate at lynch deadline is slim.  I therefore posit that:

1) our hard deadline is, for all intents and purposes, next Friday (less than a week from now); and
2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I'll be doing this myself in my next post, after completing a reread of events to date.

Will Not Lynch
Jorbles -- I explained this already.
Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.
Eevee -- Had a scum read as I was rereading, since he wasn't posting, but his most recent post sounds townie. It's his phrasing.
Yuma -- Just, not scummy so far.

Could Lynch
Everyone not on the other two lists.

Prefer to Lynch
ashersky -- I explained this already.
mail-mi -- I always find mail-mi scum, and I always find memes scummy, especially when they are in place of serious talk. And then I think he tried to course correct hard when called out for it.

[Robz888]

Jimmm for lurking (but that's normal)

good luck lynching someone that isn't in the game...

Oh my gosh UoS talking about Jimmmmmmmmmm made me think he was in the game!

Eh, well that's pretty townie. Okay, maybe I don't want to lynch mail-mi.

[Robz888]

I think UoS is very likely to be town. If he was a SK, he for no reason just put himself out there to be killed by mafia, not good. Ditto for mafia (also could be counterclaimed). Frustrated town just makes the most sense. UoS, I really like your style of playing and I'm sure people finding you scummy is nothing personal, even if it feels a bit unfair. And fwiw, it IS sheeping when Robz does it.

It is NOT!

Anyway, well... okay. I do actually think maybe this is sort of a genuine reaction for UoS. In the abstract I would find it scummier, but he does seem like he usually wants to be perceived correctly, and gets frustrated when he thinks he's not. So, okay.

[Robz888]

That's it.

[mail-mi]

OMGUS votes. OMGUS votes everywhere.

MIFY

Ooh, don't like this. Jokes are scummy.

Do you even know me?

[sudgy]

Vote Count 1.4

nkirbit (1): shraeye
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): mail-mi
Robz888 (2): ashersky, Eevee
ashersky (2): Robz888, yuma
Eevee (1): Voltgloss
EmbrageOfSnow (1): Jorbles
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, nkirbit
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends August 17th, 9 pm forum time.

[Robz888]

Quiet day.

[Robz888]

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

[mail-mi]

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And clearly I'm on mobile, right?

[mail-mi]

Oops quote fail.

[yuma]

Quiet day.

yeah, no one is really posting. But especially ash. He hasn't posted since he said this:

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

Normally I would request a mod prod. But really I think we should just lynch him and be done with it. Are Robz and I the only ones willing to vote for him? No one else sees his behavior as scummy?

[yuma]

quote fail:

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

Oh right.  I'll stop posting.  I'll be sure to check in once every 48 hours.

Normally I would request a mod prod. But really I think we should just lynch him and be done with it. Are Robz and I the only ones willing to vote for him? No one else sees his behavior as scummy?

[Voltgloss]

I'm around.  I've been rereading and mulling all weekend and will be posting my thoughts this evening.  ash is one of those I'm thinking hardest about.

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil? 

[Robz888]

In this game, or in general? Well, I assume you mean both. Liopoil is a pretty good player. He *isn't* crazy. He tends to be thoghtful and analytical. I don't think he's like the most amazing scumhunter or something--just a solid, better than decent player. His posting pattern seems to vary, though he's rarely the bottom or top poster, I think.

Really, no thoughts on him here. I couldn't even tell you for sure that he's in this game.

[yuma]

what are your thoughts on liopoil?

Hard to read due to mostly being VLA... let me reread real quick, he hasn't had that many posts... 9 total.

yeah, like nothing there from him at all, but he did say from the beginning that this was starting during his VLA and he would be behind.

So I would consider voting him based off a lurker lynch if he continued to be that way through the next day or so, but right now I think I have a more compelling case on ash.

[Voltgloss]

Thanks.  I did notice liopoil has been on V/LA since gamestart, and am taking that into account.  There's something else bothering me about liopoil - was curious if anyone else noticed it - but I'll make clear my concern in my overall post later tonight.

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi. 

[yuma]

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi.

mail-mi. He is scummy. But he is almost always scummy. I can't think of a game that I have been with him in that I didn't find him scummy--aside from the games where I was mafia myself...

I wouldn't call him the new Morgrim, he is certainly different than morgrim, but he has a playstyle that--to an extent I think he embraces--is often scummy. For me though there tends to be a post or two when he is mafia that jumps out at me.

From my memory he has been mafia three times.

1- Ninja's & Samuri's - he had a slip where he said something about godfather. He was lynched pretty quickly thereafter
2- Pirates - he made a mistake, I can't remember what it was... but it was a mistake that I personally found glaring and pointed it out along with TA. Like almost scum slip worthy, but not quite... unfortunately I was talked down out of it and he ended up not getting lynched and winning that game.
3- Harry Potter - ongoing, can't really talk about it, but again I felt it became pretty obvious he was mafia, if you want to see why, you will have to read that for yourself.

So basically when it comes to mail-mi being scum I look for more obvious signs. I haven't seen any signs from him that point to him being mafia. I see mail-mi looking scummy (as he does as town), but no large flashing lights.

So at this point he is on my could lynch, but probably at the bottom of it.

[Robz888]

I again agree with yuma.

Mail mi always comes across as scummy--but he has actually been scum a good amount of times. He is also the one person I can name who has made scumslips that did turn out to be legitimately scumslips.

He's essentially always someone I am willing to lynch.

[mail-mi]

I'm around.  I've been rereading and mulling all weekend and will be posting my thoughts this evening.  ash is one of those I'm thinking hardest about.

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil?

I wholeheartedly agree with what Yuma and robz said. I've been noticing that his post count is starting to decrease, however and I will not lynch someone on V/LA (usually).

Thanks.  I did notice liopoil has been on V/LA since gamestart, and am taking that into account.  There's something else bothering me about liopoil - was curious if anyone else noticed it - but I'll make clear my concern in my overall post later tonight.

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi. 

He is the best mafia player to have ever existed.

[Robz888]

Hmm, now you are being a bit too cute, mail-mi. Just. Too. Cute.

[nkirbit]

I don't think mail-mi is scum here.  At the very least, it's not jumping out at me like it has in other games.

[nkirbit]

Vote: Ashersky

Still find him the scummiest.

[mail-mi]

Hmm, now you are being a bit too cute, mail-mi. Just. Too. Cute.

Awwww thanks. I am in a good mood today, aren't I?

[Voltgloss]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 
I ask that UoS not respond to this.  It's a question for everyone but UoS.

Pros:
- if UoS is scum, this will get him lynched (either today or tomorrow) via 1-for-1 trade with the real PR.
- if UoS is town, and if he gets killed in the night, it doesn't give a free fakeclaim to the scum who killed him.

Cons:
- if UoS is the cop, it is almost certain he'll be nightkilled.  (It's still a high chance he gets nightkilled tonight anyway, but if he claims Cop I think that chance becomes almost 100%.)
- ...are there other cons I'm not seeing?

Yes, I'm the person who suggested the three town PRs claim generic PR.  And I expect UoS claimed generic PR in part based on my suggesting that.  But that suggestion was based on the premise of all three PRs claiming - thus leaving the scumteams with significant WIFOM on whom to shoot, and also giving the town three IC's.  For better or for worse, that's not the situation we're in.   

Note that I am not advocating the other two PRs claim at this point.  That ship has sailed.

[Voltgloss]

Addendum to above post:  if UoS claims, and his claim isn't cop, his chance of surviving the night may actually go up - because scum can't score a free fakeclaim from killing him, they have less reason to shoot him.

[mail-mi]

I say yes because, although he 99% will get killed tonight, it takes away a scum fakeclaim.

[Robz888]

Yeah, that's not a bad idea.

I think UoS should either full claim, or we possibly should consider actually doing the 3 PRs claim generic PR thing. Which I was against, but didn't think was so bad, and we are almost forced into it here.

[Robz888]

Also, I don't completely believe UoS.

[nkirbit]

I believe UoS, but do like him claiming to prevent that fakeclaim later.

[Jorbles]

I'm back ! I got back later than I expected to so I won't have time to do a proper reread until tomorrow morning, but I'll do it as soon as I get the chance.

[Voltgloss]

Will not lynch today:
- UmbrageOfSnow (barring counterclaims)
- yuma
- Robz888

Could lynch today:
- Eevee
- Jorbles
- Voltaire
- shraeye

Prefer to lynch today:
- ashersky
- nkirbit
- mail-mi
- liopoil

Main observations:

- Jorbles and mail-mi both responded in a similar fashion to my "top 3 scumreads" request, despite their having wholly different lists.  Each sheeped another player for their #1 scumread - mail-mi sheeped yuma's suspecting Voltaire, and Jorbles sheeped shraeye's suspecting UoS (claiming to have arrived at the same conclusion independently).  And each named a lurker for their #2 scumread - mail-mi named Eevee/shraeye as tied for #2/#3, while Jorbles named liopoil.  The only difference is, as Robz pointed out, Jorbles not naming anyone for #3.  I find it interesting that Jorbles and mail-mi both listed a completely different set of suspects, yet arrived at those suspects via the same analytical process.  If we lynch mail-mi and he flips mafia, I think Jorbles warrants heavy scrutiny as his possible partner.  (Of the two, I prefer lynching mail-mi today.)

- I want to hear ash's reaction to Robz's and yuma's case(s) against him.  I also want to hear Voltaire's reaction, as Voltaire has been defending ash (more than ash has been defending himself).  Right now, we have almost zero scumhunting substance from ash, which means he falls into "active lurker" territory and becomes a reasonable Day 1 lynch.  In fairness, much of the recent stuff against him has been posted Friday afternoon/over this weekend.  In further fairness, ash has certainly been on the forum this weekend as evidenced by activity in other games.  In further further fairness, those other games are at demanding late-game junctures.

- nkirbit has been tunneling on ash, with a brief detour to UoS after Jorbles announced suspecting UoS (and after nkirbit himself named Jorbles as his biggest townread so far).  What gets me suspicious of nkirbit is that, although he's been around and posting quite a bit, he has given no reads on anyone except ash, Jorbles, and UoS.  I think there is a reasonably good chance he is scum hoping to get through Day 1 by focusing solely on one or two cases he thinks others find popular. 

- Of all pending sets of reads, I am most interested to read shraeye's.  He is asking a lot of questions, which is similar to how I try to play Day 1, whether scum or town.  He is also the only player to join my early case on nkirbit - which actually makes me suspicious, as that was a weak case (made when there was precious little to go on), yet shraeye pushed it harder that I myself thought it was worth.  (I still have a scumread on nkirbit but for different reasons.)  I am eager to see where shraeye is going.

- mail-mi is clearly a strong contendor for Day 1 lynch.  The comparison to Morgrim is apt and one I was thinking about myself - is this someone we risk mislynching solely due to his playstyle?  But there is no getting around the fact that he's posting with fairly regular frequency, with a fairly regular lack of substance.  I don't see his error about Jimmmmm being a towntell - it's an easy mistake to make whatever your alignment, especially in a Day 1 like this where several players have lurked/been on V/LA. 

- liopoil I'm discussing in a separate post, as it's coming with a vote and I don't want that lost amidst these other observations.

---
Questions:

- Jorbles and shraeye, what are your thoughts now that UoS has claimed generic PR?

- Eevee, now that Robz has contributed, what are your thoughts on him?  Are you changing your vote to mail-mi or ash?  If so, which?

- mail-mi, why did you move Jorbles from your "won't lynch" to "could lynch" category?

- ash, can you address the concerns raised regarding you?

- shraeye, when can we expect your reads?

[Voltgloss]

I just reread with an objective eye what I was about to post on liopoil, with a vote on liopoil, and decided it wasn't as compelling as I thought it was.  I also think it's not the right time to raise the observation that I found potentially concerning.  Let liopoil finish his V/LA (which ends today, I think?) and have an opportunity to come to us with susbtance first.

Instead, vote: nkirbit.  mail-mi is the obvious active lurker lynch (and as I said before, not a bad lynch choice).  ash is also an obvious active lurker lynch at this juncture, unless/until he gives us scumhunting substance and addresses the cases against him.  But nkirbit is also actively lurking, but in a more subtle way by focusing on only a couple of players.  That's what concerns me most.

[Voltaire]

I'm back, but work is busier than I expected. Working through recent developments now - slowly.

[mail-mi]

- mail-mi, why did you move Jorbles from your "won't lynch" to "could lynch" category?

because i typed him in the wrong category.

[liopoil]

I just reread with an objective eye what I was about to post on liopoil, with a vote on liopoil, and decided it wasn't as compelling as I thought it was.  I also think it's not the right time to raise the observation that I found potentially concerning.  Let liopoil finish his V/LA (which ends today, I think?) and have an opportunity to come to us with susbtance first.

I wish people would stop saying "I know something" but then not say it.

my V/LA ended yesterday afternoon actually. I'm gonna read stuff now though. yesterday I caught up on the other game and non-mafia games.

[liopoil]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

[Voltgloss]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

liopoil:  say UoS is the Roleblocker.  Why do you think it would be better for the Town if he claims "not vig" instead of claiming "roleblocker?" 

[Jorbles]

Okay catching up now, I'm just going to comment on things that stand out for me:

So drinking, rereading thread, bored wanting to talk about something ...

This actually makes me think that UoS is slightly townier, I don't think scum would post while drinking (though I think it's probably happened before). it could have been faked, but I tend to think the simpler explanation (that he's actually tipsy posting) is more likely.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

Nkirbit's agreement with me and getting on board a UoS wagon, actually makes me think twice about it, as Nkirbit's post seems calculated to me. Like he's trying to position himself well on what he thinks might be a good lynch.

I don't find Ash scummy though!  I've said that over and over.

I feel like I can't win in any of these games.  I talk theory, so that's scummy.  I don't scumhunt enough so that's scummy.  I try to scumhunt so that's scummy.  I put a vote down so that's scummy.  I talk without putting a vote down so that's scummy.  You guys are so inconsistent game-to-game and day-to-day!

Don't know why I bother trying in these things.

I think some of the problem is that different people find different things scummy. You can't please everyone (I think you might have said that already, but it's worth remembering). And I'd like to note that though way back you said you didn't find ash scummy, you also outlined some scummy things he'd done. It looks like you're setting yourself up for flipping your opinion down the line.

You know what, we're doing the 3-PR claim thing.  I'm deciding this unilaterally.  Others can join me or leave me out to dry, I don't care anymore, and hey, maybe it will save town some valuable time.

I am one of your power roles.

Which also means I'm the night-kill tonight.  Let's hope both of them go for me, so we can have more alive on Day 2.

This could be faked especially with you being the only one claiming. Does the scum team think it's worth it to try and do this gambit to try and lure out the other PRs? (I doubt the SK would do this). Maybe. However, it's not worth lynching you to find out. Unvote.

It's more that I feel like no matter what I do, it isn't that I had some phrasing or some particular action that someone finds scummy, yeah whatever vote me, it's that I seem to be criticized a lot for my style of play itself, while everyone else is allowed to play however.

It's not sheeping when Robz does it.
Mail-mi is always scummy.
Jimmmmm just likes to lurk.

But I seem to be scumhunted a lot based on my playstyle and method of speaking, rather than individual actions.  And I keep trying to change that up to be more pro-town and more helpful and easier to read and I put a lot of effort into this and tonight I'm in a foul mood and I'm tired and I'm unhappy and I'm just done with giving a shit about what you guys think of my playstyle.

Edited Jimmmm's name to a reasonable length. These are reasonable points to consider regarding Robz, mail-mi and Jimmmm.
-I don't really find sheeping that scummy when done blatantly. I don't know why. You can use that to try and manipulate me in the future if you want.
-I always find ashersky scummy and to a lesser degree mail-mi. With ashersky I've played against him enough that I can at least tell when he is scum some of the time. So I've gotten used to it. (I don't think he's mafia this game, though I haven't ruled out that he could be the SK). I've approached mail-mi's sheeping and scumminess that way. As we play together I hope to be able to read mail-mi better. I'm not there yet, though, so I'd be okay with lynching mail-mi though he would be far from my top choice.
-I don't like lurking, but lynching lurkers never seems to work. (not because it would never catch them, but town never seems to unite and move forward with the idea before the lurker starts posting content) Eevee's been pretty lurky this game too. If this were a game with open flips I'd probably be okay with a policy lynch, but making every lynch count seems much more important with all the cannibals around. (I guess what I'm saying is that I don't like lurking, but I'm willing to let it slide for a little while, if Jimmm never posts I'm onboard I guess.)

Straw that breaks the camel in half kind of thing.

Fair enough, sorry to hear that.

So now we need to figure out if UoS had a minor kickball incident (as town) or manufactured one (as scum).

If he's SK, it's a really risky move, as it's basically inviting the mafia's nightkill.  If he's mafia, it's a less risky move, but still pretty gutsy - SK <i>might</i> not target him even if the SK thinks he's telling the truth, assuming the mafia is going to target him instead.

Without benefit of a full thread reread, I think UoS is most likely town at this point.

I agree with this.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I'll do this in a non catching up followup post to this one.

So UoS has alleged that Jorbles "manufactured a case against him:

...

anyway... long post. I think I would move Jorbles to my want to lynch area, but not to the point that I am willing to unvote ash at this juncture.

yuma disagreeing with my play and analysis of UoS makes me feel slightly suspicious of him. (Because surely yuma would agree with my case if he were town!) That said UoS's kickball incident and PR claim makes me think I was probably wrong. I'm willing to admit it.

Eevee's read list:
...

I don't agree with this Robz vote. Robz doesn't usually do much d1, and often tries to get by doing as little as possible because he's lazy or just doesn't enjoy D1. Eevee's list seems well, I guess about what I'd expect from someone who hadn't contributed much from the game, but wanted to make up for it... null read.

Robz wall of posts

The way he did it really boosts his post count. However the fact that I clearly consciously thought of that makes me look scummy. I just wanted to point that out for posterity.

quote fail:
...
Normally I would request a mod prod. But really I think we should just lynch him and be done with it. Are Robz and I the only ones willing to vote for him? No one else sees his behavior as scummy?

I don't read ash as scummy as you do here. He wouldn't be my top choice by any means.

I'm around.  I've been rereading and mulling all weekend and will be posting my thoughts this evening.  ash is one of those I'm thinking hardest about.

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil?

He's actually my top scum read right now. Vote: liopoil. I'll followup with more detail in a future post. (Prepost edit: I wasn't aware he was VLA. I'd still lynch him, but am willing to give him some time to join back in.)

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 
I ask that UoS not respond to this.  It's a question for everyone but UoS.

It's hard to say because there's some conflict depending on what his role is. If I were in his position and was the cop I'd want to do anything to not claim and imply that I might be one of the other roles without saying it. If I were vig or roleblocker I might want to imply that I was the Cop and not claim to draw the kill, but I also might want to come out in the hopes that scum don't kill me to try and hunt for the Cop. (Of course now that I've mentioned this it's difficult to unthink these thoughts so his actions are probably all coloured now)

- I want to hear ash's reaction to Robz's and yuma's case(s) against him.  I also want to hear Voltaire's reaction, as Voltaire has been defending ash (more than ash has been defending himself).  Right now, we have almost zero scumhunting substance from ash, which means he falls into "active lurker" territory and becomes a reasonable Day 1 lynch.  In fairness, much of the recent stuff against him has been posted Friday afternoon/over this weekend.  In further fairness, ash has certainly been on the forum this weekend as evidenced by activity in other games.  In further further fairness, those other games are at demanding late-game junctures.

This is a very interesting point about Voltaire. The fact that Voltaire has been vocally defending ash makes me think that it's possible he's scum positioning himself for a town flip from ash (so he can say, "I told you so"). I've been defending ash to a lesser degree so you could say the same thing about me.

Questions:
- Jorbles and shraeye, what are your thoughts now that UoS has claimed generic PR?
...
- shraeye, when can we expect your reads?

I think I've already addressed this, but to reiterate for clarity I tend to believe UoS, but am less worried about him either way because if he's scum lying the other scum team will take care of him before the game ends. Also I too would like to hear more from shraeye especially regarding complete reads.

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

I don't agree with this. The Vig is almost as good a kill for the mafia as the cop. They get to kill a PR AND they learn and hide the alignment/role of everyone who has been Vigged.

[Voltgloss]

This actually makes me think that UoS is slightly townier, I don't think scum would post while drinking (though I think it's probably happened before).

It has.  Grujah in M-XII.  Posting while drunk, scum!Grujah fakeclaimed Doctor after the real town Doctor had already claimed.  Town thought that was SUCH terrible scum play that Grujah was more than likely town.  Grujah and his team won.  Discovered after the game Grujah legit failed to notice the Doctor claim before his own.

I'm not saying that's what's happening here.  Just pointing out the precedent exists. 

[Voltgloss]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 
I ask that UoS not respond to this.  It's a question for everyone but UoS.

It's hard to say because there's some conflict depending on what his role is. If I were in his position and was the cop I'd want to do anything to not claim and imply that I might be one of the other roles without saying it. If I were vig or roleblocker I might want to imply that I was the Cop and not claim to draw the kill, but I also might want to come out in the hopes that scum don't kill me to try and hunt for the Cop. (Of course now that I've mentioned this it's difficult to unthink these thoughts so his actions are probably all coloured now).

Jorbles:  my concern is that, if UoS doesn't claim his role, and then gets nightkilled tonight, scum can safely fakeclaim his role in the future.  What are your thoughts on that issue?

[Jorbles]

Okay reads post:

Would not lynch:
UoS (barring counterclaims)

Would lynch if it was this or no lynch (but wouldn't prefer it):
yuma
shraeye
ashersky
Eevee
Voltgloss

Could lynch:
Robz888
nkirbit

Preferred lynches
Voltaire
liopoil
mail-mi

Since I'm giving liopoil a chance to catch up and mention some reads I won't vote for him. His presence has really been different from other games I've played with him where I got town vibes from him though.

Though I am contradicting myself, I would vote for mail-mi I think. He really hasn't contributed much despite being around a lot, and reading more from the point where I wrote the sentence one post ago where I said he wouldn't be close to my top choice ("As we play together I hope to be able to read mail-mi better. I'm not there yet, though, so I'd be okay with lynching mail-mi though he would be far from my top choice.")

I would also vote for Voltaire because of his confident defense of ashersky. It just looks like he has some confidence in his defense of ashersky, which I don't think he could have at this point in the game without some scummy knowledge. Though ash and nkirbit seem more popular I'm going to vote for Voltaire for now. If this doesn't build any momentum I'll move my vote. Vote: Voltaire

[yuma]

lot of self referencing in jorbles big post

[mail-mi]

I actually find jorbles townier because of that big post. Enough that i will move him (back) into my "won't lynch unless no lynch of this" category, although he is the one i want to lynch most out of that category.

[Jorbles]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 
I ask that UoS not respond to this.  It's a question for everyone but UoS.

It's hard to say because there's some conflict depending on what his role is. If I were in his position and was the cop I'd want to do anything to not claim and imply that I might be one of the other roles without saying it. If I were vig or roleblocker I might want to imply that I was the Cop and not claim to draw the kill, but I also might want to come out in the hopes that scum don't kill me to try and hunt for the Cop. (Of course now that I've mentioned this it's difficult to unthink these thoughts so his actions are probably all coloured now).

Jorbles:  my concern is that, if UoS doesn't claim his role, and then gets nightkilled tonight, scum can safely fakeclaim his role in the future.  What are your thoughts on that issue?

Lynch all claimants? I don't know, this setup is really difficult to determine optimal play. I guess if someone claims Vig or Roleblocker d2 after UoS's death, Cop could investigate them n3. I guess my opinion is that it's complicated and that I'll play it by ear? It's obvious we can't trust claimants after today, but what the best move is I can't be sure of.

[Jorbles]

lot of self referencing in jorbles big post

Town tell? If I was scum I would've kept it to myself wifomwifomwifom.

Another possibility is just that I can't stop thinking about how I'll be perceived because it's in my nature to be selfconscious, or I'm a narcissist and can't stop thinking about myself.

[Voltaire]

It's truly terrible playing catch up, truly terrible. I'll do my best to form and articulate reads on everyone though:

This will only be a "greatest hits" of the weekend. If I've missed something you want my thoughts on, ask.

Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

This is why I believe UoS (among other reasons). He's thinking things through like I'm thinking them through. That's not a bulletproof scumhunting system but it's working for me so far. I think UoS is town and one of our PRs.

As for the best next step, I think there's plenty of WIFOM for mafia/SK right now on whether or not to kill UoS. I'd be completely fine with no further information unless UoS thinks (and wants to WIFOM, etc.) that he needs to reveal more. I also would be fine with fulfilling the three PR claim plan if the other two decide that's the best course of action.

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just wrong, maybe I missed nkirbit commenting on it more while catching up?

I am getting Jorbles and Voltgloss confused, and it's making this hella difficult. I think it's because they're the two I haven't played with yet.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

Completing this:

Will Not Lynch:
me
UoS
yuma
ash
Voltgloss

Could Lynch:
Jorbles
nkirbit
lio
shraeye
Eevee
Robz

Want to Lynch:
mail-mi

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

This! I think mail-mi is trying to fix his scum meta by not trying. It just seems so over-the-top, like this latest example:

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And I don't like that mail mi, clearly had time to respond, and that's what he responds with.

And clearly I'm on mobile, right?

Oops quote fail.

mail-mi is smart, he is not the "new Morgrim."

PPE:

I would also vote for Voltaire because of his confident defense of ashersky. It just looks like he has some confidence in his defense of ashersky, which I don't think he could have at this point in the game without some scummy knowledge. Though ash and nkirbit seem more popular I'm going to vote for Voltaire for now. If this doesn't build any momentum I'll move my vote. Vote: Voltaire

I'm not super-confident, but I am fairly confident! Yuma has a good post somewhere outlining how this could be scum!ash and it could but right now I do not think it is and I do not want to lynch ash. I do not know where you are getting scummy knowledge out of this. Also the whole myscummierreads are voting for ash is making me feel better about my town read on him.

[Voltaire]

post count for reference:

1. Jorbles - 24
2. Voltaire - 37
3. Eevee - 6
4. Voltgloss - 21
5. Robz888 - 5
6. UmbrageOfSnow - 76
7. nkirbit - 24
8. yuma - 49
9. ashersky - 41
10. shraeye - 23
11. mail-mi - 35
12. liopoil - 8

I know this is a bit out-of-date, but I would expect to find scum in the middle. So mail-mi, shraeye, ash, nkirbit, Voltgloss, (me), Jorbles. And that's lining up with my other reads nicely, so yup!

[Voltgloss]

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

[Eevee]

So, I don't find Robz's contributions overly towny. Sure, he boosted his post count nicely and there were a lot of words, but most of them were stuff safe to say regardless of alignment. I'm not saying I'm finding him scummier for wanting to talk about previous games, I know he (too) likes doing it very much. I'm just saying he clearly was trying to catch up (the way I did, actually), but didn't manage to convey any ideas I think he wouldn't put out there if he wasn't town. I'm
not dead set on lynching Robz, but he is my preferred option for the time being. Sorry buddy!

Jorbles bumped himself up to my townreads category with his latest contributions.

[yuma]

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

what do both of you make of him not posting since he said he wasn't going to post anymore?

[Voltaire]

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

Unhelpful but not troubling.

I actually feel like ash is fairly easy to catch when scum (or at least has been for me so far). I can state that when he's scum his fakecases tend to be faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake and I haven't seen that yet. I have no idea what he's doing in this game and I originally thought he was being silly with yuma but maybe he really is being petulant?

PPE:

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

what do both of you make of him not posting since he said he wasn't going to post anymore?

See above (by fun co-incidence!) for my answer.

[Voltaire]

So, I don't find Robz's contributions overly towny. Sure, he boosted his post count nicely and there were a lot of words, but most of them were stuff safe to say regardless of alignment. I'm not saying I'm finding him scummier for wanting to talk about previous games, I know he (too) likes doing it very much. I'm just saying he clearly was trying to catch up (the way I did, actually), but didn't manage to convey any ideas I think he wouldn't put out there if he wasn't town. I'm
not dead set on lynching Robz, but he is my preferred option for the time being. Sorry buddy!

This stood out to me too but I think it's a null for Robz. He always seems to play to the middle of the spectrum.

[Voltgloss]

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

what do both of you make of him not posting since he said he wasn't going to post anymore?

I don't think he was being serious.  If he hasn't posted by the end of the day today, I will revisit that assessment.

[Voltaire]

I have no idea what he's doing in this game and I originally thought he was being silly with yuma but maybe he really is being petulant?

Thinking about this more it's a derpthought by me. Ash always has a plan. He's doing this for a reason, and I don't know what it is.

[yuma]

Voltaire, what do you make of ash's lack of non-theory content so far?

what do both of you make of him not posting since he said he wasn't going to post anymore?

I don't think he was being serious.  If he hasn't posted by the end of the day today, I will revisit that assessment.

alright, but I would say that 3 1/2 days of not posting when he is obviously posting in other threads is serious indeed.

[yuma]

Actually, if the thread is already becoming clogged, I say we table any claiming-talk for now and come back to it when we're 3 or so days from the deadline, enough time to claim if we're going to, enough time to decide not to  without torpedoing all the cases that will be building by day's end.

Sound good to everyone?  If so, I'm done with theory talk for now.

his last post

Oh right.  I'll stop posting.  I'll be sure to check in once every 48 hours.

[mail-mi]

Vote: ash

Also, I would like to request a prod on ash.

[nkirbit]

He's around, just not posting in this thread.  And I do think that's very anti-town, and another reason for me to keep my vote on him.  I know Ash sometimes does weird stuff, but deliberately avoiding a thread to make a point?  That's anti-town enough that I'm not sure town wants to do it.

[Voltgloss]

Unofficial vote count:

nkirbit (2): shraeye, Voltgloss
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Robz888 (2): ashersky, Eevee
ashersky (4): Robz888, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi  [L-3]
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (1): liopoil

[Voltgloss]

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

[yuma]

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

making us think that "no way would scum ash be that crazy" and establishing that as his eccentric meta.

I assume he knows that it won't work on me, so I dont' think he is trying to convince me, but from all appearances it is working on a lot of other players. I think if this was anyone but ash, there would be 1-2 more votes on him at this point.

[nkirbit]

Yes, I expect him to come back at some point with the, "Cmon guys!  I wouldn't be that obvious as scum!" argument.  And you know, he could be correct, but I think there's a larger chance that he's scum than anyone else in the game, so I'm happy to vote there.

I still have the same bad feeling I had about his plan initially, and no one else has jumped out at me as a good lynch.

[liopoil]

ash is playing towards his wincon. why he thinks not posting helps town, I have no idea, but he probably has a reason. I could see not posting playing towards scum!ash's wincon though. So yes, it is scummy.

[Voltgloss]

I agree, liopoil.  I can see crazy!town!ash avoiding the thread with the same likelihood of crazy!scum!ash avoiding the thread.  I can think of at least one goal ash may be trying to achieve with this gambit, assuming it is a gambit and assuming he is town.  So at this point, that behavior of ash's is a nulltell for me. 

What concerns me more about ash is the VT claim.  I think Robz made a good point that scum have a strong incentive to claim VT in this setup, to avoid being shot by opposing scum.  So I can see why scum!ash would do that.  What I'm not seeing is why town!ash would do that.

ash:  You always play to win, regardless of your team and regardless of the orthodoxy of your chosen methods.  With that in mind, here is my question:  How does your early VT claim help town win?

nkirbit:  By when do you expect to have your reads posted on non-ash players?

shraeye:  By when do you expect to have your reads posted?

UoS:  By when do you expect to have your reads posted?

[nkirbit]

Whenever I get around to them.  I have a fairly lengthy assignment due tomorrow afternoon, so all re-reads are postponed until then. 

[yuma]

I agree, liopoil.  I can see crazy!town!ash avoiding the thread with the same likelihood of crazy!scum!ash avoiding the thread.  I can think of at least one goal ash may be trying to achieve with this gambit, assuming it is a gambit and assuming he is town.  So at this point, that behavior of ash's is a nulltell for me. 

Keep in mind--and this is something that I haven't pushed enough, but should have--that I, at least, am not voting ash because he hasn't posted. It has encouraged me to continue to vote for him. But it isn't the reason. I was voting for him before because I believed many of his posts were written with the intent to mimic his persona. I can reference the post for you if you would like that I compiled them, but really just reread him for yourself. He has many suggestions, ideas and reactions that from my perspective--and this is coming from someone who has been scum partners with him--that I believe are forced and unauthentic. That is why I am voting for him. I think the not posting is just taking that concept to another level so I continue my vote.

[Voltaire]

Vote: ash

Also, I would like to request a prod on ash.

Nobody else wants to lynch mail-mi with me?

[yuma]

Vote: ash

Also, I would like to request a prod on ash.

Nobody else wants to lynch mail-mi with me?

what has he done that separates him from scummy town mail-mi. I haven't seen anything.

[mail-mi]

Vote: ash

Also, I would like to request a prod on ash.

Nobody else wants to lynch mail-mi with me?

what has he done that separates him from scummy town mail-mi. I haven't seen anything.

And what does that quote of me have anything to do with it?

[nkirbit]

Because it looks like your reason for voting Ash is that he's been lurking, not because you've stated any issues with his play.  It's an easy way to sheep onto a wagon should you be scum.

That being said, I still don't think mail-mi's scum here.

[Voltaire]

what has he done that separates him from scummy town mail-mi. I haven't seen anything.

The over-the-top nature of it. It's scummy town mail-mi x 1000. That's why I think it's a gambit by scum!mail-mi. Take mail-mi in B2B. He was scummy there, but in an afterthought way to me - like, a bunch of people did scummy stuff, and then if you thought about it, mail-mi had been scummy in the background. He's been scummy in the foreground here, and he just (self-censoring obvious reference to ongoing game, I think everyone gets what I'm saying), so I think he changes it up.

It's not a slam dunk but I feel good about it.

[Voltaire]

And what does that quote of me have anything to do with it?

Nothing, it was your most recent post. Thinking you voting for ash fits my reads nicely, deciding if I'm worried about that.

[yuma]

what has he done that separates him from scummy town mail-mi. I haven't seen anything.

The over-the-top nature of it. It's scummy town mail-mi x 1000. That's why I think it's a gambit by scum!mail-mi. Take mail-mi in B2B. He was scummy there, but in an afterthought way to me - like, a bunch of people did scummy stuff, and then if you thought about it, mail-mi had been scummy in the background. He's been scummy in the foreground here, and he just (self-censoring obvious reference to ongoing game, I think everyone gets what I'm saying), so I think he changes it up.

It's not a slam dunk but I feel good about it.

Ok. Well I guess to further answer your question I am not willing to vote him because it does feel like he has been in the background, ŕ la B2B. I don't think he has been in the forefront. Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

[Voltaire]

Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

He also sheeped your case on me hardcore, fwiw. If you're town and mail-mi's scum, it fits a "play obvious" strategy nicely.

But I'm getting the feeling you and I are at another agree-to-disagree juncture.

[Voltgloss]

Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

He also sheeped your case on me hardcore, fwiw. If you're town and mail-mi's scum, it fits a "play obvious" strategy nicely.

mail-mi also moved Jorbles from "won't lynch" to "could lynch" immediately after yuma - whom he'd sheeped before - posted a case on Jorbles.  mail-mi claims now that he simply put Jorbles in the wrong category in his initial post.

[mail-mi]

Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

He also sheeped your case on me hardcore, fwiw. If you're town and mail-mi's scum, it fits a "play obvious" strategy nicely.

mail-mi also moved Jorbles from "won't lynch" to "could lynch" immediately after yuma - whom he'd sheeped before - posted a case on Jorbles.  mail-mi claims now that he simply put Jorbles in the wrong category in his initial post.

Which I did.

[yuma]

Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

He also sheeped your case on me hardcore, fwiw. If you're town and mail-mi's scum, it fits a "play obvious" strategy nicely.

But I'm getting the feeling you and I are at another agree-to-disagree juncture.

Really the only times I have thought about him were when you and voltgloss have specifically asked about him... and a bit when Robz reacted to his meme.

He also sheeped your case on me hardcore, fwiw. If you're town and mail-mi's scum, it fits a "play obvious" strategy nicely.

mail-mi also moved Jorbles from "won't lynch" to "could lynch" immediately after yuma - whom he'd sheeped before - posted a case on Jorbles.  mail-mi claims now that he simply put Jorbles in the wrong category in his initial post.

But how are these things any different than what we expect to see from scummy town mail-mi: hard core sheeping, changing reads... that is mail-mi. I don't see any difference.

[Voltaire]

But how are these things any different than what we expect to see from scummy town mail-mi: hard core sheeping, changing reads... that is mail-mi. I don't see any difference.

But I'm getting the feeling you and I are at another agree-to-disagree juncture.

[Robz888]

I've mulled things over, and I still advocate an ash lynch. He claimed VT, which was bad, and he has decided to avoid the thread, which is bad. These are anti-town things. At some point, you just have to say, anti-town = scum. I know that ash is serious about this game and likes to win--I therefore have to think he is doing this, banking on someone bringing out the "scum!ash would never do this, it would clearly get him killed, and he wouldn't let down his team" argument. In fact, I almost started making that argument. But no, have to say focused and not overlook the anti-town behavior.

I also very much think UoS should full claim.

[Voltaire]

At some point, you just have to say, anti-town = scum. I know that ash is serious about this game and likes to win--I therefore have to think he is doing this, banking on someone bringing out the "scum!ash would never do this, it would clearly get him killed, and he wouldn't let down his team" argument. In fact, I almost started making that argument. But no, have to say focused and not overlook the anti-town behavior.

The one thing I will say is that since ash's absence overlapped with my own V/LA, I didn't realize until others pointed it out that it was so long.

[liopoil]

in regard to mail-mi:

I feel like we lynch him every single game. actually, I do think he gets lynched much more often than not. because of that, I feel like when we lynch him correctly, it's not so much that we read him correctly, it's more that we got lucky that he rolled scum . And so I have a really hard time reading mail-mi at all.

ash not posting is bad for town if he is town, and also bad for town if he's scum and we don't lynch him. I think perhaps we should all agree to lynch ashersky if he does not post. regardless of his alignment, getting lynched hurts his wincon, so I think that will get him to post. Unless he isn't even reading the thread, which I doubt. if he isn't reading the thread, prod him!

[liopoil]

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

liopoil:  say UoS is the Roleblocker.  Why do you think it would be better for the Town if he claims "not vig" instead of claiming "roleblocker?" 

hmmm. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of "claiming is a bad idea unless he's the vig", but he already claimed... so meh. okay, fullclaiming makes sense to me. I doubt he is scum, but if he is, making him fullclaim will catch him, while hardly helping scum at all if he's town. also, it prevents fakeclaims if he is NKed.

one thing I wasn't totally aware of: if we lynch scum, we find out the alignments of the players they have killed. so that makes scum fakeclaim slightly less viable, because they could get caught when we lynch their buddy.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 1.4

nkirbit (2): shraeye, Voltgloss
mail-mi (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Robz888 (2): ashersky, Eevee
ashersky (4): Robz888, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi 
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (1): liopoil

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The day will end on August 17th at 9:00 PM Forum Time.

Prod Sent.

[shraeye]

I'm in the process of catching up, making dinner, and preparing for game-night tonight.

So drinking, rereading thread, bored wanting to talk about something, I decided to reread the original nkirbit vote.  I don't find Voltgloss scummy for this, although I don't agree with it.  (And yes, I think I'm allowed to have that opinion without it somehow making me scummy, town are allowed some nuance you know.)

Anyway it got me thinking, I don't find Nkirbit scummy for that because I think Yuma, Ash, and I basically drew him into it, but I think what Voltgloss (see, I typed his full name, not that hard) was looking at is interesting: Scum have daychat, so how can we look for this impacting the thread.  I'm going to reread with that in mind, tomorrow or the next day or something, but what should I be looking for?

Voltyvoltyvoltglass?  Yuma?  Others?

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

I think scum would be able to correct points of view that might gain flak or be unpopular.  I think scum will be able much more to coordinate splitting up/redirecting/defending and such as well.  I'm not sure how much that will impact the early-game, as the only time I've played with daychat before is in blitz setups with ICs and whatnot (thems' be different beasts), but certainly we have to watchout for quickhammers and whatnot as the days count on (I doubt scum would do that on day1; a mislynch might happen, but then we'd know at least one scum as well).

Mod:  What time is our lynch deadline on August 17th?

All:  Lynch deadline is in one week, on Saturday.  The chance of having everyone available on a weekend to participate at lynch deadline is slim.  I therefore posit that:

1) our hard deadline is, for all intents and purposes, next Friday (less than a week from now); and
2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

I'll be doing this myself in my next post, after completing a reread of events to date.

This deadline schedule seems reasonable, but I'm not interested in catering to whatever reads-list-style thing you are demanding of us.  I'll choose my style, and I'll build my categories how I please, thank you very much.

Thanks.  I did notice liopoil has been on V/LA since gamestart, and am taking that into account.  There's something else bothering me about liopoil - was curious if anyone else noticed it - but I'll make clear my concern in my overall post later tonight.

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi.

This is more of the "Hey people, tell me what you think about this player!" before you end up taking a hard position one way or another.  Things like this hit scum-radar; I feel additionally like asking for one player's opinion like this shows that you trust that person's opinion....meaning you've made an implicit assumption that they're town...now was it really an assumption, or do you have that knowledge already?

[shraeye]

Jorbles: Reread him as well, nothing really stood out. Contributing, reasonable opinions, tried to build a case on UoS who I now "know" to be town. If I was reading this with the knowledge that Jorbles is scum, I'd be thinking "he is positioning himself well", but it's also reasonable town play.

So what are your thoughts on Jorbles, in the end?

[shraeye]

I actually feel like ash is fairly easy to catch when scum (or at least has been for me so far). I can state that when he's scum his fakecases tend to be faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake and I haven't seen that yet. I have no idea what he's doing in this game and I originally thought he was being silly with yuma but maybe he really is being petulant?

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

[Voltgloss]

Thanks.  I did notice liopoil has been on V/LA since gamestart, and am taking that into account.  There's something else bothering me about liopoil - was curious if anyone else noticed it - but I'll make clear my concern in my overall post later tonight.

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi.

This is more of the "Hey people, tell me what you think about this player!" before you end up taking a hard position one way or another.  Things like this hit scum-radar; I feel additionally like asking for one player's opinion like this shows that you trust that person's opinion....meaning you've made an implicit assumption that they're town...now was it really an assumption, or do you have that knowledge already?

I didn't ask yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because I assume yuma is town.  I asked yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because mail-mi has been sheeping yuma, yet yuma hadn't commented on that other than to post a picture of sheep.

I am not willing to lynch yuma on Day 1, but that doesn't mean I assume he is town.

As for asking people what they think before I've committed to my reads?  Yeah, that's what I do - regardless of my alignment.  If you find it scummy, well, that's a playstyle difference.  And I'm not interested in catering to whatever play-style thing you are expecting of us.  I'll choose my style, and I'll build my cases how I please, thank you very much. 

...

OH GOD AN EMOTICON INCOMING ROBZ VOTE

...

[Voltaire]

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

You can phrase it that way if you want. I am not seeing many people agree with me though.

[shraeye]

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

You can phrase it that way if you want. I am not seeing many people agree with me though.

What does my phrasing have to do with how many people are agreeing with you?

[shraeye]

I didn't ask yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because I assume yuma is town.  I asked yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because mail-mi has been sheeping yuma, yet yuma hadn't commented on that other than to post a picture of sheep.

fair.

[Voltaire]

What does my phrasing have to do with how many people are agreeing with you?

Nothing. I do not know where you are going with this. What do you think about ash?

[shraeye]

What does my phrasing have to do with how many people are agreeing with you?

Nothing. I do not know where you are going with this. What do you think about ash?

Here's where I'm going with it.

"You can phrase it that way if you want".  interpretation: Ok, you wouldn't have phrased it the way I did, but you don't fault me for saying it that way

"I am not seeing many people agree with me though." interpretation: not many people agree with you.  BUT, you thought to put those two sentences in the same post, so there's a link between them.  Furthermore, using the word 'though' makes it seem like those phrases are even more linked, somehow in opposition to eachother.

Example:  "I tried to tell her that I wasn't interested.  I couldn't seem to shake her though."

[Jorbles]

in regard to mail-mi:

I feel like we lynch him every single game. actually, I do think he gets lynched much more often than not. because of that, I feel like when we lynch him correctly, it's not so much that we read him correctly, it's more that we got lucky that he rolled scum . And so I have a really hard time reading mail-mi at all.

ash not posting is bad for town if he is town, and also bad for town if he's scum and we don't lynch him. I think perhaps we should all agree to lynch ashersky if he does not post. regardless of his alignment, getting lynched hurts his wincon, so I think that will get him to post. Unless he isn't even reading the thread, which I doubt. if he isn't reading the thread, prod him!

If ash doesn't (and post in a way that's not too little too late) by the time soft deadline rolls around I'll lynch him. Either way this very antitown right now.

[yuma]

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

You can phrase it that way if you want. I am not seeing many people agree with me though.

nice dodge there voltaire...

also nice dodge when you said "let's just agree to disagree" I am not so sure I want to agree to disagree, I think this topic of conversation needs to continue.

[Voltaire]

also nice dodge when you said "let's just agree to disagree" I am not so sure I want to agree to disagree, I think this topic of conversation needs to continue.

Do you want me to change my read on ash so you can call me scummy for it? I've made my case.

[Eevee]

Jorbles: Reread him as well, nothing really stood out. Contributing, reasonable opinions, tried to build a case on UoS who I now "know" to be town. If I was reading this with the knowledge that Jorbles is scum, I'd be thinking "he is positioning himself well", but it's also reasonable town play.

So what are your thoughts on Jorbles, in the end?

What was said above (so basically I don't see anything scummy or towny) until the latest which I found towny.

Shraeye, not contributing your reads seems like a terrible practice. Why do you think it helps town to win?

[yuma]

also nice dodge when you said "let's just agree to disagree" I am not so sure I want to agree to disagree, I think this topic of conversation needs to continue.

Do you want me to change my read on ash so you can call me scummy for it? I've made my case.

I am not talking about ash, I am talking about mail-mi. I don't want you to change your read... your read is your read. I want you to explain how you see mail-mi as being different, or rather how you can see the things that you say are different as actually being different. I want to know if your read on mail-mi is faked and being forced or if you think it actually has merit. because right now, I am leaning toward the former.

And you still haven't actually responded to the question that shraeye asked the first time around:

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

You can phrase it that way if you want. I am not seeing many people agree with me though.

[Voltaire]

Shraeye, not contributing your reads seems like a terrible practice. Why do you think it helps town to win?

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

It's a thing, apparently. And yes, it's scummy.

[yuma]

Shraeye, not contributing your reads seems like a terrible practice. Why do you think it helps town to win?

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

It's a thing, apparently. And yes, it's scummy.

why is it scummy? If I remember correctly, shraeye has often done this in the past, raerae I know does this. He doesn't share his reads until toward the end of the day, when he/she shares them. I personally don't really mind it. It is a play style that works for him... I for one didn't mind when voltgloss asked for my reads, because I am readily available to share them... that is my style. But shraeye shouldn't be at the beck and call of other players to share his reads before he is ready to give them. Him doing so I think would be more suspicious based off his previous play style.

[Voltaire]

I am not talking about ash, I am talking about mail-mi. I don't want you to change your read... your read is your read. I want you to explain how you see mail-mi as being different, or rather how you can see the things that you say are different as actually being different. I want to know if your read on mail-mi is faked and being forced or if you think it actually has merit. because right now, I am leaning toward the former.

And you still haven't actually responded to the question that shraeye asked the first time around:

OK let me try to explain myself again. Apparently I am doing a very bad job.

1. I see megaSheep, joke post, silence, megaSheep, etc. from mail-mi. That seems completely devoid of content, whereas in past games my take has been that there has been a small amount of pro-town behavior but still overall scummy. I know you won't like it but the best way to explain this could be "gut" here, but I believe what I just said should also make my point. I do not see a slam-dunk case on anyone else, and voting patterns tend to line up with this idea relative to my other reads, so I am happy with this as my D1 vote. As you'll see in my list as per Jorble's request, I am willing to lynch a decent number of other players (at this point) but think mail-mi would be the best.

2. Yes, I guess then? Ash hasn't made any bad cases, in the past Ash makes bad cases? My read is obviously based on his early play since there hasn't been much/anything since then and yes it could be a scum gambit and yes it is antitown but I feel about it the way you feel about mail-mi if I am understanding you correctly.

[Voltaire]

Shraeye, not contributing your reads seems like a terrible practice. Why do you think it helps town to win?

shraeye, what are your actual reads? You have nkirbit and UoS (and me?), it seems, but I don't see anything else from you.

It's a thing, apparently. And yes, it's scummy.

why is it scummy? If I remember correctly, shraeye has often done this in the past, raerae I know does this. He doesn't share his reads until toward the end of the day, when he/she shares them. I personally don't really mind it. It is a play style that works for him... I for one didn't mind when voltgloss asked for my reads, because I am readily available to share them... that is my style. But shraeye shouldn't be at the beck and call of other players to share his reads before he is ready to give them. Him doing so I think would be more suspicious based off his previous play style.

Then I differ to your meta knowledge if that is truly the case. But not sharing reads is scummy.

[shraeye]

Jorbles: Reread him as well, nothing really stood out. Contributing, reasonable opinions, tried to build a case on UoS who I now "know" to be town. If I was reading this with the knowledge that Jorbles is scum, I'd be thinking "he is positioning himself well", but it's also reasonable town play.

So what are your thoughts on Jorbles, in the end?

What was said above (so basically I don't see anything scummy or towny) until the latest which I found towny.

Shraeye, not contributing your reads seems like a terrible practice. Why do you think it helps town to win?

I'm not "not contributing reads".  If anybody cares to reread me, you'll see about where I lie.  The only confusion might be that some of the questions I ask are important and some are unimportant.  Like when Jorbles buried his serious question about UoS among a set of questions about multiple new players, I find that people answer most revealingly when they don't realize what you're getting at.

What I'm doing is not contributing reads on Voltgloss's schedule, as HE would please.  I don't see why everybody is eager to please Voltgloss.  (spoiler alert: I've got a scumread on him).  I've got a system that works for me, and I stick to it...I don't need other people telling me what I NEED to do.

[Robz888]

Implore: Ash to resume contributing.

[mail-mi]

Implore: Ash to resume contributing.

I say we should just lynch him or replace him. Srsly. It's gotten to that point.

[ashersky]

Implore: Ash to resume contributing.

I was waiting for L-1, but fine.

Yuma is clearly scum here.  I’m 99% sure he is scum and 85% sure he is mafia.

Yuma’s partner is one of two things: a veteran veteran, or a true soldier who can take orders in the QT.  I don’t know who it is (Robz is a possibility).

Voltgloss has a 50% or greater chance of being the SK.

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.


To answer a separate question that I think Voltgloss raised: I claimed Amy Pond early on for a number of reasons.  Sure, scum may want to claim VT in this game, but scum aren’t the only ones who have a reason to do that.  VTs will claim VT, of course.  Possibly Town PRs would, to try and hide.

So maybe I was hiding something with my VT claim.  But really, I just honestly believe my plan, which has all three PRs coming forward on D1, is the best thing possible for town.  What you all are missing, and what scum is obfuscating, is that there are more dangers to this than just losing PRs at night.  As mentioned by multiple people, scum gain the knowledge from the kills, not town.  Then they can use that knowledge against us.

Here’s a scenario for you: D1 lynch a VT.  N1 mafia kills any Town PR; SK kills the other mafia.  On D2, SK and mafia both know that there are only two scum left.  Mafia knows there are only two PRs left.  Town knows zilch.  Nothing.  Literally.  Let’s say on D2 we lynch another VT.  N2 mafia kills another PR; SK kills the other mafia.  Or switch those two, doesn’t matter.  Now, on D3, we have one scum left who has all the knowledge.  It could be mafia, it could be SK.  It doesn’t matter.  That one person has the entire set-up.  All the knowledge.  And town still has nothing.

Do you see the dangers?  Do you see how hard this is for town?  That one remaining scum can do whatever he wants.  He can push folks subtly toward mafia hunting.  Or SK hunting.  Or scum partner seeking.

The PRs all need to claim now, so that at least we have that information.  And then we need to scum hunt within the non-PR group.  I would also argue we should SK-hunt, not mafia-hunt.  If we miss and hit mafia, whatever.  SK is the more dangerous of the bad guys, because he has the most incentive (and easiest situation in which) to seem town.

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

[mail-mi]

In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

Please don't. Please. What was up with the whole disappearing act?

[Robz888]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

[Robz888]

Ash, you are so much more persuasive when you are actually writing words instead of nothing.

[ashersky]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I'm not actually at L-1, you know.  No one is.

[Voltaire]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

[ashersky]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

On  my scumreads:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

On why I didn’t post for so long:

Clearly I was around.  I was posting everywhere else.  I was definitely irritated.  Then I wanted to see how long I could go without anyone saying anything.  That lasted longer than I thought.  Then I wondered how long after that I could go.  I believe had I not posted now, I would have gotten to L-1 or hammered in another 24 hours.  That would have been okay, I think.  As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Robz’s imploration was cool, though, so I broke silence.

[nkirbit]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

[nkirbit]

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

[ashersky]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

My Voltgloss case is the much weaker of the two, which you've pointed out.  But I admitted as much from the beginning.  Also, I didn't vote for Voltgloss, so the line I bolded above is just trying to rile things up where there are no things.

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.

[Voltgloss]

Phone posting.  Will have limited access until around 4 EST.

Glad to see ash back.  He's right that SK is more important lynch because lynching SK reduces the killing, where lynching mafia doesn't until you hit both. He's wrong about me being SK but its a reasonable argument - basically, "look at past games where person X was scum and look for similarities.". Which is a good exercise.  To be complete though, you also need to look at past games where that person was town, again for similarities.

I have no apology for trying to drive the town into talking more.  When a talkative player disappears, someone has to drive things.  Nor do I care much about nkirbit and shraeye refusing to talk on my "terms.".  The point is to get people talking.  Mission accomplished.

Ash, are you thinking generic PR claims or specific ones?  How does UoS's claim change things in your view, if at all?

[ashersky]

Three generic is best, I believe.  UoS is one.  We need two more.  Only if we have 4 claims do we need specifics.

[shraeye]

What do you think about ash?

I really don't care how much he posts or whatever.  I don't understand people who are like "hey, ash is acting crazy again...this time REALLY crazy...that means he's scum!!"  And I also don't understand the people who are defending ash when he hasn't done anything, really.  Ash is like pure null for me.  I suppose if everything ash did was done by a different player, I would have more to say, but I'm not phased by ash pulling any sort of crazy stunt.

he's not somebody we're going to catch by analyzing how crazy he's being.  And he's certainly not somebody we'll catch by crossing our fingers and saying "I hope this time crazy-ash is scum-ash"...that's not scumhunting, that's hoping.

[shraeye]

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

Yeah, I'm willing to discuss this idea, but I disagree with it.  I don't have any numbers to back me up, but I think that having more than one kill per night mucks up the idea of "even parity".  We have an even number of people, and I think theorel has shown how that makes lynching correctly harder or something, but if we nolynch, it's possible that we'll still have an even number of people tomorrow. 

I feel like all that does is give us one less opportunity to lynch scum, which you've pointed out is town's way of getting info.  We just can't be starting day2 with WagonAnalysis 101.  Things won't necessarily be as we expect them, and as soon as we publicly set an idea of how we expect things to happen, scum can start avoiding the things that we might normally catch them with.

[shraeye]

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

Well, in that regard, I still like ash's suspicions on Voltgloss more than your "he just is a gut-feel"-vote on ash, where you also keep sheeping any and all other points that people bring up against ash.

[yuma]

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Don't have a lot of time, heading into work to start up my 7-on. But wanted to respond to this.

Couple of things:

- my reads aren't too strong for D1. (if you think my case is flimsy and reasoning is flawed, I can't argue what you think. I think they are just fine, but I guess we will see after your flip) I have never said I know you are mafia (something that you have done, with your nice 99% estimation). I think you have a good chance of being mafia. If you aren't, well then we need to have a nice discussion about you playing ridiculously as town.
- The XYZ thing. Isn't that what I am saying here. "ash, has really seemed to be doing (playing up his meta), (overly posting only theory content), (not posting for extended periods), which is something I'd expect from scum!ash, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum." Isn't that what I have been saying this whole time? Not those exact words, sure, but more or less?
- I did have a reaction to you not posting for 3.5 days. I don't know how you can say otherwise? I was the one that repeatedly pointed it out, that brought people to notice it. That told people they should vote you because of it! They might have eventually, but I was keeping track, starting with 1 day out! You wanted me to react more? How so? By saying "ash is 100% mafia for mega-lurking!!!" (wouldn't that violate your rule above?) Or maybe I could vote you again? (that would do a lot of good) Or maybe I could mega-lurk to try and make my point and threaten to self-hammer (cause that would be just completely stupid and worthless, so hell... maybe I should try it, cause it seems to be working find with you).
- My response to your absence wasn't to find you less scummy for it. My point in the post you are quoting is that I was suspicious of you above and beyond your being mega-lurky. AND that your being mega-lurky added to it! How is that not completely obvious to you?

- I don't like cases that rely on the idea of mafia manipulating quotes and trying to deceive, but it isn't something I would put beyond ash (especially if he is trying to establish his play style as such) but man, he is just wrong about all of the points about me.

nothing has changed. I didn't really expect anything to change.

[Voltaire]

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

I do not think No Lynch is a good idea. Shraeye pointed out some good reasons (we could have two kills and go back to even), but even when mafia can co-ordinate they still have to take stands, and if they're bad at co-ordinating then they'll become obvious. In fact, I think it's more important than normal not to no-lynch, because if we no-lynch, we have no flips at all going into D2, and potentially as many as three deaths.

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

1. Voltgloss - Voltgloss's actions I see as pro-town and as such I have a town read on him. If he's mafia, he's yuma-style helping town early mafia, and so there's nothing wrong with having him around. Nkirbit also raises a good point - have you looked over his SK game, and are there similarities? I don't think that's necessarily a productive line of reasoning and as such do not plan on doing it myself.

2. Yuma - this cannot lead to a 99% certainty. While I agree that yuma has made at least one incorrect case (me!), he did not have no reaction to you disappearing and incorrect cases are not a scumtell. Is this really your entire case on him?

3. See 2.

As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Why do you have this need to have town talk about you??? We were doing just fine, in my opinion. If you're town, you took us away from what we were doing and made us talk about you. Why? People were already taking stands about you.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

It is Tuesday. Please disregard.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

It is Tuesday. Please disregard.

Actually, relevant. If this is the soft deadline, I won't be able to be online for it.

[Jorbles]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

No lynch isn't nearly as useful in this scenario because there will be little benefits from the night actions we need to lynch someone so we can at least have something modconfirmed to go on D2. Although I see that there would be benefits if all the PRs claimed.

[Jorbles]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I assume you are so insistent because you don't believe UoS's claim? If he faked the other scum team will take him out eventually.

[Jorbles]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

On  my scumreads:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

On why I didn’t post for so long:

Clearly I was around.  I was posting everywhere else.  I was definitely irritated.  Then I wanted to see how long I could go without anyone saying anything.  That lasted longer than I thought.  Then I wondered how long after that I could go.  I believe had I not posted now, I would have gotten to L-1 or hammered in another 24 hours.  That would have been okay, I think.  As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Robz’s imploration was cool, though, so I broke silence.

This post from ash gives me a not-mafia vibe on ash. It does strike me as good positioning though if ash is the SK. I do not think ash is on the mafia team, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out if he was the SK. (for the record SK reads: ash, and shraeye, both people I think are fairly towny, and mail-mi who I think it is possible is playing scummy to survive into later stages of the game)

[Jorbles]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

The reason I don't think Volt is the SK is that I think the SK would try to not make themselves the NK from scum, which means not implying they are a PR and not leading town. Voltgloss has been leading town, which I think mafia might do, but not SK (I don't think Volt is mafia here, I've seen him do this in the past as town).

[Jorbles]

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.
[/quote]

I agree with this.

[shraeye]

The problem is if you take #543 adn #545 together, you get the idea to lynch towny players, because they might be SK.  I don't think that's really the road to victory here.

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.

I agree with this.

This post from ash gives me a not-mafia vibe on ash. It does strike me as good positioning though if ash is the SK. I do not think ash is on the mafia team, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out if he was the SK. (for the record SK reads: ash, and shraeye, both people I think are fairly towny, and mail-mi who I think it is possible is playing scummy to survive into later stages of the game)

[Robz888]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I assume you are so insistent because you don't believe UoS's claim? If he faked the other scum team will take him out eventually.

Sure, but then we won't even know, and it will really screw up claiming in later days. And the scum that kills him can masquerade as the PR that he was, which would be awful.

[mail-mi]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

Where has he been? Long enough for a prod? If so, i request a prod on UoS

[Voltgloss]

From the rules:

-No Way, No Lynch: Players cannot 'Vote: No Lynch'. If, by deadline, a lynch has not been decided on, whoever has the most votes on them will be lynched. In case of a tie, whichever player had a vote cast last on them is lynched.

No-lynch is not an option.

[Voltgloss]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

Where has he been? Long enough for a prod? If so, i request a prod on UoS

I agree with this.  It's been about three and a half days since UoS last posted. 

[Voltaire]

It's re-reads time. I've realized I likely won't be able to be around for either deadline, so I'll likely need to get my vote in sometime late tomorrow. mail-mi is not looking viable, so though he remains my top scum read, I'm looking elsewhere. If others are convinced between now and then I will happily move my vote back.

Post counts, no pre-game, through 545:

yuma - 62
Voltaire - 54
ashersky - 42
mail-mi - 42
UmbrageOfSnow - 34
Voltgloss - 32
nkirbit - 30
Robz888 - 29
Jorbles - 29
shraeye - 26
liopoil - 12
Eevee - 7

Bold is the range I'd theoretically expect scum to fall into. It's become less useful - hopefully because scum saw me call them out on it. I'll have to see how this has changed since last pointed out.

Can we please get a prod of UoS?

Scummy:
mail-mi - I was shocked how high his post count is. Using the usefulness to post count ratio, mail-mi "wins" this in a landslide. My full thoughts on mail-mi are well-documented elsewhere.
nkirbit - I do not like this series of events. Others have pointed it out too:

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

In the recent Blitz game when he was town, Ash proposed his plan, and immediately justified his reasoning.  He started by trying to convince everyone that his plan was pro-town, because he wanted it to happen.

Here, his plan was proposed very differently.  He didn't start with justification, that came later.  In fact, he started posts with language such as, "Further to this", indicating he was still thinking through his plan even after he proposed it.  Which would be fine, if it wasn't completely different from what I have seen from town!Ash before.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

nkirbit is voting for ash for taking a few posts to explain his plan and not making it obvious that the plan was pro-town, which I disagree with. nkirbit can only justify this with "feel" and "gut", and then he sheep's Robz's totally different reasons for voting for ash.

Then, this happens:

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just flat-out incorrect, as pointed out by UoS himself, and another sheep. Take it all together, and vote: nkirbit.

Null:
yuma - Yuma has been yuma. He was the first to suggest looking at MafiaScum history to see what this setup tends to yield and asked for some clarification about the flavor. Yuma finds me scummy for trying to get the game rolling in earnest after he himself engages in the theory talk and does not do much (prior to me). What really strikes me here is now much theory talk yuma has engaged in (he has been scumhunting as well).
liopoil - lio has popped into the game at "big" moments (UoS claim, etc.) and nothing else. I think that's consistent with town or scum on V/LA.
Robz888 - Eevee makes a good point that his rapid-fire catch-up didn't add much content but it got his post-count out of "lurker" territory.

Lite town:
Jorbles - Talks a lot about theory, but in a way that makes it clear he's thoroughly thinking it through. Thinks I "know" ash is town. I actually get a bit of a town read for being concerned about how he's perceived - I just don't see scum openly admitting to that, even if it's true. Your WIFOM may vary.
ashersky - My opinions on ash are well-documented elsewhere. I am not a fan of what he is doing but I do not see him as scum right now.
Eevee - actually has a nigh amount of content for a tiny post count, and it's been reads and pushing. That said, there's not too much here.
Voltgloss - Perfects the plan. Methodical scumhunting. The most obvious pro-town player, I'd say.
shraeye - Poking and proding and scumhunting and getting a bit under my skin, but I'm trying to look past that. Not posting full reads, but that'll get a pass - for now - since apparently it's his meta. Corrections welcome. The one thing I do not like here is the implying that UoS is setting up mislynches.

Town:
UmbrageOfSnow - I believe the claim, and I had a town read on UoS beforehand anyway.

PPE: Everything since 545. I see I'm not the only one missing UoS.

[Voltgloss]

To answer a separate question that I think Voltgloss raised: I claimed Amy Pond early on for a number of reasons.  Sure, scum may want to claim VT in this game, but scum aren’t the only ones who have a reason to do that.  VTs will claim VT, of course.  Possibly Town PRs would, to try and hide.

So maybe I was hiding something with my VT claim.  But really, I just honestly believe my plan, which has all three PRs coming forward on D1, is the best thing possible for town.  What you all are missing, and what scum is obfuscating, is that there are more dangers to this than just losing PRs at night.  As mentioned by multiple people, scum gain the knowledge from the kills, not town.  Then they can use that knowledge against us.

ash:

- I understand how, if you are scum, claiming VT at gamestart can promote your wincon.
- I understand how, if you are a town PR, claiming VT at gamestart can promote the town's wincon.
- What I cannot understand is how, if you are a VT, claiming VT at gamestart promotes the town's wincon.

Your response above simply states "VTs will claim VT, of course."  Which is an apt response for explaining why, as VT, you would claim VT during a massclaim.  But that's not what happened.  You proposed massclaim, and almost immediately claimed VT.  I.e., you claimed VT before massclaim, and without regard to whether massclaim would actually take place. 

So what I need to understand is this:  Assuming you are VT, how does your early VT-claim - before, and possibly without, any massclaim - promote the town's wincon?

Or - again, assuming you are VT - was your early VT-claim simply a mistake?

[Archetype]

UmbrageOfSnow has been prodded.

[nkirbit]

Then, this happens:

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just flat-out incorrect, as pointed out by UoS himself, and another sheep. Take it all together, and vote: nkirbit.

It wasn't just flat-out incorrect.  My point was that UoS was pointing out things that people might find scummy about Ashersky while simultaneously claiming that he didn't felt him scummy.  I felt that it could be scum trying to paint a player as scummy without getting their hands dirty, and I felt that other posts he made could be interpreted that way.

UoS pointing out that he was clear that he didn't find Ashersky scummy doesn't prevent my point.  It may be incorrect as shown by his claim, but a lot of the day1 cases we make are incorrect.  But I do maintain that it's a reasonable interpretation of his actions I pointed out.

[shraeye]

He's setting up future lynches

vote: nkirbit for the scummiest reaction to ash's plan.  "Eh I won't be talking about this" followed by "here's me talking about this" smells a bit to me of his partner in daychat going "dude it will look suspicious if you totally refuse to engage with town in their main topic of discussion."

He makes an early case for nkirbit, which I agreed with.  Then there were other things that nkirbit did which I also found scummy, which lead to me re-validating my vote on him.  Yet later on, Voltgloss casts suspicion on me for "agreeing to such a weak case", YET HE STILL FINDS NKIRBIT SCUMMY, exactly the same as I did.
I'm beginning to think that it's very possible that nkirbit is town, and Voltgloss is gearing up to have me be the suspicious character that takes the rap for any nkirbit lynch.

- nkirbit has been tunneling on ash, with a brief detour to UoS after Jorbles announced suspecting UoS (and after nkirbit himself named Jorbles as his biggest townread so far).  What gets me suspicious of nkirbit is that, although he's been around and posting quite a bit, he has given no reads on anyone except ash, Jorbles, and UoS.  I think there is a reasonably good chance he is scum hoping to get through Day 1 by focusing solely on one or two cases he thinks others find popular. 

- Of all pending sets of reads, I am most interested to read shraeye's.  He is asking a lot of questions, which is similar to how I try to play Day 1, whether scum or town.  He is also the only player to join my early case on nkirbit - which actually makes me suspicious, as that was a weak case (made when there was precious little to go on), yet shraeye pushed it harder that I myself thought it was worth.  (I still have a scumread on nkirbit but for different reasons.)  I am eager to see where shraeye is going.

Tons of open ended questions to everyone as a whole...the "hey what do you think of this" scumtell
>

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

>

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil?

Note, that this one came after he called for everybody's reads, but before he posted his reads.

>

Thanks.  I did notice liopoil has been on V/LA since gamestart, and am taking that into account.  There's something else bothering me about liopoil - was curious if anyone else noticed it - but I'll make clear my concern in my overall post later tonight.

yuma, I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on mail-mi.

more questions about people...I sure hope he comes around with that tidbit on liopoil that he promised. 

Again he asks yuma about mail-mi.  Yuma had already answered his generic mail-mi question in #244, and had already posted a reads list which had ranked mail-mi. 

So voltgloss claims that he was asking because yuma hadn't commented yet on mail-mi, but that's just not true.

I didn't ask yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because I assume yuma is town.  I asked yuma for his opinion on mail-mi because mail-mi has been sheeping yuma, yet yuma hadn't commented on that other than to post a picture of sheep.

I just reread with an objective eye what I was about to post on liopoil, with a vote on liopoil, and decided it wasn't as compelling as I thought it was.  I also think it's not the right time to raise the observation that I found potentially concerning.  Let liopoil finish his V/LA (which ends today, I think?) and have an opportunity to come to us with susbtance first.

Instead, vote: nkirbit.  mail-mi is the obvious active lurker lynch (and as I said before, not a bad lynch choice).  ash is also an obvious active lurker lynch at this juncture, unless/until he gives us scumhunting substance and addresses the cases against him.  But nkirbit is also actively lurking, but in a more subtle way by focusing on only a couple of players.  That's what concerns me most.

Aw shucks, he didn't do that thing about liopoil.  I guess we'll keep waiting...

>

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

After this gets answered, he agrees with liopoil and goes on to further hedge/theorize without making any conclusions

I agree, liopoil.  I can see crazy!town!ash avoiding the thread with the same likelihood of crazy!scum!ash avoiding the thread.  I can think of at least one goal ash may be trying to achieve with this gambit, assuming it is a gambit and assuming he is town.  So at this point, that behavior of ash's is a nulltell for me. 

What concerns me more about ash is the VT claim.  I think Robz made a good point that scum have a strong incentive to claim VT in this setup, to avoid being shot by opposing scum.  So I can see why scum!ash would do that.  What I'm not seeing is why town!ash would do that.

here, Voltgloss demands the thread make lists, so he can see who is generally scummy, and who is generally towny.  This is rarely a good idea, if we really want a solid lynch.

In pursuit of meeting these goals, I ask everyone, by the end of their next two posts, to group all other players (besides yourself) into "Will Not Lynch On Day 1," "Could Lynch On Day 1," and "Prefer To Lynch On Day 1" categories.  Each category should have at least 3 players.  Right now, our votes are quite literally scattered across the entire roster of players, which does not fill me with confidence that we're on a good path to settling on a lynch within a week.

Here, Voltgloss demands that people make full reads lists, and specifies how many people belong in which category.  This is a great way for scum to have in one concise location a good idea of who to nightkill.  I think that this is scummier as a suggestion than if Voltgloss had just posted his reads, and continued to ask questions of other people's reads.  Making the call for everybody's comprehensive reads is a "towny"-sounding way to move the game forward, but I really don't think it helps town at all; I think it's a better tool for scum to find mislynches and nightkills.

yup, he's scum

Hardy-har, ash.  No, I don't have daychat, as I am not scum. 

Oh really, well here are some really interesting slips, then (underlines are my own).

I'm not saying that I agree with liopoil's thinking, but re: #284, I do think it's pretty clear that the second quote UoS lists was liopoil specifically talking about L-1 claims <i>on Day 1</i>.  I recall liopoil re-clarified as much later on.

So I guess that means I agree with yuma's take on it in #287.

So now we need to figure out if UoS had a minor kickball incident (as town) or manufactured one (as scum).

If he's SK, it's a really risky move, as it's basically inviting the mafia's nightkill.  If he's mafia, it's a less risky move, but still pretty gutsy - SK <i>might</i> not target him even if the SK thinks he's telling the truth, assuming the mafia is going to target him instead.

Without benefit of a full thread reread, I think UoS is most likely town at this point.

[shraeye]

Vote: Voltgloss

[Robz888]

How are those slips...?

[Voltgloss]

The "tidbit" on liopoil is that the significant majority of his (very few) posts in this game were talking about the Vig.  What the Vig should do, whether the Vig should claim, how important the Vig is, etc. etc.  I thought this was a scumtell, i.e., scum!liopoil setting things us so that, if he/his team was lucky enough to nightkill the Vig, he could then claim Vig and point to all of those posts as breadcrumbing.

I then read other games with liopoil and saw him doing the same exact thing there.  I thus came to the conclusion that liopoil just puts more stock in Vigs than most of us do, and revised my read from scumtell to nulltell.

[Voltgloss]

I think my own post that shraeye quoted makes clear my concern re: shraeye - that he pushed what I considered to be a weak case no nkirbit - AND the fact that I also found nkirbit scummy, but for different reasons than that original weak case (which shraeye pushed).

I make no excuses for asking people questions, exhorting people to make lists, and generally pushing people to talk.  This includes my second question to yuma about mail-mi, which prompted a significantly more susbtantive post from yuma on the subject (and a follow-up by Robz).  Getting people to talk about other players is how we make a record, and perusing that record - in the light of people's actions - is how we catch scum.  Scum are in general wary of talking, because it's in talking that scum make slips or take positions that can come back to bite them later on.  Scum would love it if no one ever badgered them into talking. 

Also, repeatedly calling my post a "demand" is an unwarranted spin.  I asked people to make lists.  I have not voted anyone for failing to make lists.  I have not suggested anyone is scummy for failing to make lists.  I have pushed to try to get lurkers to contribute.  I make no excuses for that.  It's important to do.

I really don't know what "slips" shraeye thinks I made.

I also note that I'm the only person who voiced any serious suspicion of shraeye this game, so his case on me should be read with a grain of OMGUSalt.

All that said, I am not finding shraeye scummy for making the case.  We have playstyle differences.  It is easy to see someone as scummy who plays differently from how you think the game should be played.  That doesn't make you scum... but it doesn't make the person who plays differently from you scum either.

I have more to say - on an entirely different topic than shraeye - but it must wait until ash responds to my question.  Due to timezone differences, I don't expect that to happen until late tonight (forum time).

I am also hopeful that UoS will show up, as I have a particular question for him as well.

[ashersky]

To answer a separate question that I think Voltgloss raised: I claimed Amy Pond early on for a number of reasons.  Sure, scum may want to claim VT in this game, but scum aren’t the only ones who have a reason to do that.  VTs will claim VT, of course.  Possibly Town PRs would, to try and hide.

So maybe I was hiding something with my VT claim.  But really, I just honestly believe my plan, which has all three PRs coming forward on D1, is the best thing possible for town.  What you all are missing, and what scum is obfuscating, is that there are more dangers to this than just losing PRs at night.  As mentioned by multiple people, scum gain the knowledge from the kills, not town.  Then they can use that knowledge against us.

ash:

- I understand how, if you are scum, claiming VT at gamestart can promote your wincon.
- I understand how, if you are a town PR, claiming VT at gamestart can promote the town's wincon.
- What I cannot understand is how, if you are a VT, claiming VT at gamestart promotes the town's wincon.

Your response above simply states "VTs will claim VT, of course."  Which is an apt response for explaining why, as VT, you would claim VT during a massclaim.  But that's not what happened.  You proposed massclaim, and almost immediately claimed VT.  I.e., you claimed VT before massclaim, and without regard to whether massclaim would actually take place. 

So what I need to understand is this:  Assuming you are VT, how does your early VT-claim - before, and possibly without, any massclaim - promote the town's wincon?

Or - again, assuming you are VT - was your early VT-claim simply a mistake?

I was signaling my strong feeling that claiming needs to happen.  It only hurts town insofar as scum kill choices were reduced from 4/10 to 4/9 for mafia and 5/10 to 5/9 for SK, assuming they 1) believe me, and 2) don't want to kill an obv!town.

I don't see the problem you are seeing.  I would quote you on this:

  It is easy to see someone as scummy who plays differently from how you think the game should be played.  That doesn't make you scum... but it doesn't make the person who plays differently from you scum either.

[Voltgloss]

ash:  The problem I am seeing is that claiming VT - and doing so in a way that doesn't incur the town's wrath - is a very large boon for scum in this setup.  Scum don't want to get nightkilled by opposing scum.  Scum want to nightkill power roles.  So scum claiming VT can insulate themselves from opposing scum nightkills. 

You know this, of course.  What I am grappling with is the fact that you did something concrete - claimed VT - in a circumstance where claiming VT has huge gains for scum, yet only hurts town (by making it easier for scum to find town PRs).  I think this goes beyond playstyle differences.

That's why I asked what you were trying to accomplish, assuming you are a VT.  I'm trying to figure out if your stated reason is genuine.  To do that, I needed to know your reason.  Now you've stated it (thank you), and now I need to think about it.

Of course, Robz is the one who first raised the point that scum want to claim VT in this setup.  So Robz, you have any thoughts on this issue? 
/inb4 shraeye tries to vote me again for asking another player to talk

[shraeye]

"Hey Robz, can you please help me make my case on ash...thanks"

Vote: Voltgloss

[Robz888]

I just wish ash had reserved his VT claim until after we had agreed to his plan. The way he did it makes him look scummier.

[Voltaire]

ash:  The problem I am seeing is that claiming VT - and doing so in a way that doesn't incur the town's wrath - is a very large boon for scum in this setup.  Scum don't want to get nightkilled by opposing scum.  Scum want to nightkill power roles.  So scum claiming VT can insulate themselves from opposing scum nightkills. 

You know this, of course.  What I am grappling with is the fact that you did something concrete - claimed VT - in a circumstance where claiming VT has huge gains for scum, yet only hurts town (by making it easier for scum to find town PRs).  I think this goes beyond playstyle differences.

But ash could not know that he would not incur wrath at the time, which is why I buy his stated reason that he was just very intense about his opinion. That matches his actions.

[Voltaire]

That said -

Why do you have this need to have town talk about you??? We were doing just fine, in my opinion. If you're town, you took us away from what we were doing and made us talk about you. Why? People were already taking stands about you.

[shraeye]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

[Robz888]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Oh. Woah.

[Voltaire]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

This...this might be the first scumslip I could support.

[Robz888]

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

[Robz888]

Explanation immediately, please, Voltgloss. Don't take time to think.

[Voltgloss]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery. 

[shraeye]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

[liopoil]

<i>might</i>

august 8th, 10pm

<i>on Day 1</i>

august 10th

voltgloss has not posted in that QT since august 8th, 7 am.

[Voltgloss]

Though I guess that's probably not going to satisfy people, seeing as how the posts shraeye is raising were after my latest post in that QT. 

It's pretty funny.  This is exactly the type of case I'd make and push really hard.  And yet, here I am (as town), making a mistake that is rightly being called as scummy - and yet I am town.  Ironic!  Guess I'm just rusty at the game.

...I can't even be mad, it's so hilarious.

Welp.  If you all want to lynch me for this, I won't hold it against any of you.  I'd be banging the drum for shraeye's lynch if I caught shraeye in this same manner.  Unfortunately, I am town, and you'll see that if you lynch me and I flip.  And I won't self-vote, because I am town.

Apologies for letting the town down.

PPE:  Yeah, you people already saw that.

[liopoil]

oh, ninja'd and labeled the quotes backwards.

[ashersky]

That said -

Why do you have this need to have town talk about you??? We were doing just fine, in my opinion. If you're town, you took us away from what we were doing and made us talk about you. Why? People were already taking stands about you.

I'm egomaniacal?

[ashersky]

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

[liopoil]

Though I guess that's probably not going to satisfy people, seeing as how the posts shraeye is raising were after my latest post in that QT. 

It's pretty funny.  This is exactly the type of case I'd make and push really hard.  And yet, here I am (as town), making a mistake that is rightly being called as scummy - and yet I am town.  Ironic!  Guess I'm just rusty at the game.

...I can't even be mad, it's so hilarious.

Welp.  If you all want to lynch me for this, I won't hold it against any of you.  I'd be banging the drum for shraeye's lynch if I caught shraeye in this same manner.  Unfortunately, I am town, and you'll see that if you lynch me and I flip.  And I won't self-vote, because I am town.

Apologies for letting the town down.

PPE:  Yeah, you people already saw that.

well, I was unsure that the slips meant much, but this post reads quite scummy - trying to get us to realize that he can't be scum because he isn't defending himself, accepting his lynch. plus a bit of Appeal To Emotion...

intent to vote for votegloss, unsure how many votes he has.

[Robz888]

Ah, Voltgloss. I'm sorry, man. I really hate to lynch you Day 1 in your first game back. But... I just don't think we can overlook this. And I know you understand that.

With a heavy heart, Vote: Voltgloss

Good work, shraeye.

[Voltgloss]

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

[nkirbit]

Yeah, that is significant.  I'll vote volt once we have a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering or something dumb

[sudgy]

Vote Count 1.6

nkirbit (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Robz888 (2): Eevee, Voltgloss
ashersky (3): yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi 
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow
Voltgloss (3): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888

Not Voting (1): liopoil

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The day will end on August 17th at 9:00 PM Forum Time.

[Robz888]

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

[liopoil]

Vote: Voltgloss

[Voltgloss]

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

[Voltgloss]

By "this" I mean Robz's reaction, not liopoil's vote.

Btw, shraeye, I bequeath to you the job of making liopoil and Eevee contribute.  They're heavy lurking.  Don't let them get away with that.

[Robz888]

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

It has! 

[Voltgloss]

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

It has! 

An emoticon from Robz??!?  Blasphemy!

[Robz888]

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

[Robz888]

I mean, I'm entirely overreacting, but I'm around and felt like talking, so whatever.

[ashersky]

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

It has! 

An emoticon from Robz??!?  Blasphemy!

I don't think there are many of us left that remember the "emoticons = scum" Robz.

[liopoil]

I don't think there are many of us left that remember the "emoticons = scum" Robz.

...he still does it...

let's not lynch voltgloss until UoS comes back

[Eevee]

Wow, Robz, those explanations sound super fishy to me.

My biggest problem with ash's claim is that it's very advantageous to any scum to avoid getting shot by the other scum. I think pushing this lynch would make significantly more sense than pushing PPS did in that game, but I guess your mileage may vary. However, saying you didn't need to push ash because he was getting lynched anyways seems like you want to avoid attention (scummy) pushing the case on a townie (after you honestly called out something scummy you saw him do). You shouldn't have argued with ash, it's not him you needed to convince, it was town. How does focusing on UoS getting back make any sense? Why not focus on ash getting back? How exactly does you focusing on someone returning help, and does it really take all your focus - enough to make you stop pushing for someone you think is scum?

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

[Voltgloss]

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

I really do think you're the most likely scum, though.  I'm thinking it politely though!

Man, this is a lot more fun than my usual oh-so-serious style.  Next game I play, maybe I should channel popsofctown and make only three-word posts.  At least shraeye couldn't find me suspicious for trying to get people to vote!

[Voltgloss]

Incidentally, please note #16 of my game-planning QT that I linked, where I make the same damn tag mistake but in reverse. 

I guess the takeaway is, "always proofread your posts or people will mislynch you for it."  Or maybe, "never use italics."

[Robz888]

Wow, Robz, those explanations sound super fishy to me.

My biggest problem with ash's claim is that it's very advantageous to any scum to avoid getting shot by the other scum. I think pushing this lynch would make significantly more sense than pushing PPS did in that game, but I guess your mileage may vary. However, saying you didn't need to push ash because he was getting lynched anyways seems like you want to avoid attention (scummy) pushing the case on a townie (after you honestly called out something scummy you saw him do). You shouldn't have argued with ash, it's not him you needed to convince, it was town. How does focusing on UoS getting back make any sense? Why not focus on ash getting back? How exactly does you focusing on someone returning help, and does it really take all your focus - enough to make you stop pushing for someone you think is scum?

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

I guess I thought the town was fairly convinced, and it wasn't super necessary, and I was just doing other stuff?

[Voltgloss]

Man, this is a lot more fun than my usual oh-so-serious style.  Next game I play, maybe I should channel popsofctown and make only three-word posts.  At least shraeye couldn't find me suspicious for trying to get people to vote!

vote = post

I'm just digging deeper and deeper!  Next thing you know, I'm going to be having a 0% chance of flipping town!

I don't, for the record.  I have a 100% chance of flipping town.  You'll all see soon.  Good luck for the rest, town!

[Voltgloss]

I hope you all peruse that QT by the way when it becomes night and you have time to rest.  That game is going to be a lot of fun, I think.  And a semi-open setup, so you're not spoiling yourself by reading there. 

With that, I'm going to dinner!

[ashersky]

May I mention something? 

All the "reasons" I am scummy for the early VT claim seem to be something to do with dodging the NK.  Thing is, given everybody has mentioned that possibility, I don't think it helps me dodge the NK at all.  Also, scum never ever NK me, because they always think I am mislynchable when needed.

So your reasons aren't compelling.

[Eevee]

Either your claim is meaningless wifom, or it does help you dodge the nightkill. No scum has any incentive to hunt for VT's. Do you think one guy claiming VT is better than no claiming?

[liopoil]

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

[ashersky]

Either your claim is meaningless wifom, or it does help you dodge the nightkill. No scum has any incentive to hunt for VT's. Do you think one guy claiming VT is better than no claiming?

I think 3 PRs claiming, or 9 VTs claiming, is best.  One VT claiming is meaningless.

[Eevee]

Either your claim is meaningless wifom, or it does help you dodge the nightkill. No scum has any incentive to hunt for VT's. Do you think one guy claiming VT is better than no claiming?

I think 3 PRs claiming, or 9 VTs claiming, is best.  One VT claiming is meaningless.

You are dodging my question. Why do you refuse to admit that the way it played out, your claim was very anti-town? The only party who could benefit from it was scum ashersky, and for some reason you are trying to play around that fact.

[Eevee]

It's especially weird of you to be pro-ash instead of pro-town given your long history of sacrificing yourself to the benefit of your team.

[mail-mi]

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

[ashersky]

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

He has 2 or 3 votes.

[ashersky]

Either your claim is meaningless wifom, or it does help you dodge the nightkill. No scum has any incentive to hunt for VT's. Do you think one guy claiming VT is better than no claiming?

I think 3 PRs claiming, or 9 VTs claiming, is best.  One VT claiming is meaningless.

You are dodging my question. Why do you refuse to admit that the way it played out, your claim was very anti-town? The only party who could benefit from it was scum ashersky, and for some reason you are trying to play around that fact.

Your question is "do you think one guy claiming VT is better than no claiming?"

If you need a yes or no, then no, it is not "better" than "no claiming."  But YOU are being dodgy by equating that with "your claim was very anti-town."  It was by no definition of the words "very anti-town."

It's also disingenuous of you to say this:

It's especially weird of you to be pro-ash instead of pro-town given your long history of sacrificing yourself to the benefit of your team.

When I explicited gave the intent to self-hammer, which is pro-town, not pro-ash.

Scum read on Eevee has increased.  He's looking for the easy mislynch, possibly deflecting from VG.  He also refuses to actually recognize that my real answer, that the 3 PRs (or 9 VTs) need to claim, is what needs to be discussed.

And his tunnel on my claim, when UoS made one as well, is scummy.  1 PR claim out of 3 is more "anti-town" than 1 VT claim out of 9.

[Eevee]

Faking to be a pr gets you shot by the other team, not concerned. Faking to be a VT is what scum wants to do. Not sure why this concept seems hard to understand for you.

I don't have an opinion on massclaim or not, but the position you are taking isn't "I was hoping for a massclaim and jumped the gun a bit, sucks it went this way, I'm sorry". To me your position seems "I claimed VT, it's whatever and I wouldn't benefit from it if I was scum so why are you harassing me?"

Is your intent to hammer yourself pro-town because you are scum?

You seem to have a scum read on me on every single day 1 these days and it's been a good while since I was mafia without teaming up with you.

I'm deflecting away from Voltgloss? Dude, I'm voting for him and quite explicitly said that I think he is the best lynch for today. I'm not dodging your real answer, I'm saying your claim was premature and regardless of your thoughts on a full massclaim, you should realize only you claiming is very antitown and you shouldn't have done it. You are trying to avoid admitting that, and I think it might be because you intentionally fakeclaimed as scum to avoid getting shot, to mess with us because you can and to fake your town meta.

Sorry there are no quotes despite addressing specific things in your post, I'm in mobile. I hope everyone can follow what parts of your post I was referring to at all times.

[Eevee]

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

This seems in line with liopoil's usual persona. I think it's unlikelier he would dare to try to fight a lost cause if he was Voltgloss's partner though, so if Voltgloss flips mafia, I think lio is not a likely partner but I realize that's not much.

[yuma]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

So I guess I am the only person who doesn't find voltgloss scummy for this? When I read shraeye's post explaining the italics thing my mind immediately jumped to this QT that volt is talking about. It is a very simple and easy mistake to make, switching up the tags. People do the opposite all the time in the QTs... I know for a fact that chairs (yes, he isn't in this game, but as an example) just barely did so in the speccy for CLUE... especially in the context of voltgloss using that thread a lot--not necessarily as of late, as some have mentioned, but recently enough that it is probably the place where he most recently used tags.

Could this be voltgloss as mafia. Maybe. But this, like so many other slips before it I think this is going to result in probably a townie lynch and very little to go off come day2.

[yuma]

I am not the only one, I see that lio agrees with me.

[Eevee]

yuma, why do you think slip-based lynches give less wagon information than lynches based some other type of a case? You seem to be upset with how most of our day 1's go, I personally see this as a good one. Lynching Voltgloss here has got to have at least an ok chance of hitting scum, obviously it sucks if we lose such a heavy weight townie but sadly no one is going to be able to trust him much even if we don't lynch him so that's less of a concern. I feel this is a nice non cluttered stuff still happened length for a day 1 and we usually can't commit to a lynch until just before the deadline unless something like this happens.

[liopoil]

I don't have a problem with lynching someone over a slip, but I don't think it's much of a slip. don't know for yuma though.

[yuma]

yuma, why do you think slip-based lynches give less wagon information than lynches based some other type of a case? You seem to be upset with how most of our day 1's go, I personally see this as a good one. Lynching Voltgloss here has got to have at least an ok chance of hitting scum, obviously it sucks if we lose such a heavy weight townie but sadly no one is going to be able to trust him much even if we don't lynch him so that's less of a concern. I feel this is a nice non cluttered stuff still happened length for a day 1 and we usually can't commit to a lynch until just before the deadline unless something like this happens.

My problem with it is that if voltgloss is town we are then left with a bunch of "I voted for him because I thought it was a slip" type of explanations. And from town that is an extremely valid explanation. However, it is also an extremely valid cover for mafia. It makes differentating the town from the mafia. There is much less accountability because everyone is saying "it was totally obvious."

That is the drawback with "slips." I mean, if he flips mafia... then, yes, awesome. But if not... I will basically be left with my day1 reads because for me nothing will change... whereas on another lynch once I get the flip, my reads change dramatically depending on how things played out.

Does this have a good chance of hitting mafia. I don't know. I don't think it is any better than anything else out there, maybe worse because people aren't really thinking about it (maybe they are, but mostly people are going OMGOMGOMG!!!! WOWWOWOWOWOWOW!!!! votevotevote) and if everyone is doing that, then we have a harder time separating mafia from town if voltgloss flips town.

This "slip" isn't as concrete as some people seem to be thinking it is. My mind immediately had an explanation for it. And it was the same one voltgloss used, so I don't see it as a slip, I see it as a mistake. Maybe it was made by mafia, but I doubt it.

[shraeye]

Wow, Robz, those explanations sound super fishy to me.

My biggest problem with ash's claim is that it's very advantageous to any scum to avoid getting shot by the other scum. I think pushing this lynch would make significantly more sense than pushing PPS did in that game, but I guess your mileage may vary. However, saying you didn't need to push ash because he was getting lynched anyways seems like you want to avoid attention (scummy) pushing the case on a townie (after you honestly called out something scummy you saw him do). You shouldn't have argued with ash, it's not him you needed to convince, it was town. How does focusing on UoS getting back make any sense? Why not focus on ash getting back? How exactly does you focusing on someone returning help, and does it really take all your focus - enough to make you stop pushing for someone you think is scum

Can you explain more about what you mean?  I keep getting lost in the big paragraph, and I can't quite figure out everything you're getting at.

[Eevee]

It was a response to this:

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

I'm just really terrible at quoting from mobile. Robz's explanations for why Voltgloss's case on him is weak seemed really not good to me, so I tried to point out the problems I had with them.

[shraeye]

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

So this obvious lie of a defense doesn't register to you?

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

[Robz888]

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

[ashersky]

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Agreed.

[yuma]

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

So this obvious lie of a defense doesn't register to you?

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

Now this is much more interesting. Because it isn't a slip, it is a contradiction. But is it really a contradiction? I mean I can kinda see what he is trying to say. That he has been alternating posting "here" as in the f.ds forum in general and the QT he is working on.

But I guess what now worries me is that he hasn't come out and said that himself...

[Jorbles]

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

This...this might be the first scumslip I could support.

Whoa, that's pretty incriminating, has Voltgloss ever done that in another game? I haven't seen him do that.

[Jorbles]

I'd vote for Volt based on that, but I'll do it after an official vote count.

I agree with ashersky and Robz that VG has been acting like a scum player who was caught.

[yuma]

I'd vote for Volt based on that, but I'll do it after an official vote count.

I agree with ashersky and Robz that VG has been acting like a scum player who was caught.

anyone want to say why they think this? I mean, yes, he has acted looser and less like voltgloss, but I expect any player that thinks he is doomed to death would suddenly become a lot looser and more likely to through around jokes and such...

I have been looking back at the games where volt was mafia and was lynched--and while none is a case of a "slip"--I don't think any fit that trend.

Ozlemafia I - he fought until the end, once he was lynched he admitted to being scum pretty quick (it was lylo I believe at that point). After he was lynched he wasn't too happy about it (it being the game, the setup and the ending)
MIII - He again put up a fight, and became really indignant about his impending lynch.
RMMI - Here he was outed by a cop and again he fought it pretty hard and tried to incriminate the cop and ended up being really indignant about it

Now these are games from a looooong time ago. But all of them are instances where volt as mafia was lynched and each one he was incredibly upset and frustrated and indignant (the ways I would actually expect someone who was caught mafia to act)

and he is right that he has never been mislynched, so there is nothing to compare that to.

[yuma]

yuma count 1.1

nkirbit (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (3): yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi 
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow
Voltgloss (4): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, eevee

Not Voting (1): liopoil

{vote counts aren't that hard to do guys. If the mod isn't around, just go back and figure it out}

[nkirbit]

I haven't got much of a read off of Voltglosses' reactions.  I think either scum or town could react the way he did.

Still, I do think that Voltgloss is much more likely than anyone else to flip scum at this point.  I can see him getting confused were he jumping back and forth between this game and a mafia QT.

I also think that Ash has been towny since coming back, so

Vote: Voltgloss

This puts him to 5.  L-2, I believe.

[mail-mi]

I haven't got much of a read off of Voltglosses' reactions.  I think either scum or town could react the way he did.

Still, I do think that Voltgloss is much more likely than anyone else to flip scum at this point.  I can see him getting confused were he jumping back and forth between this game and a mafia QT.

I also think that Ash has been towny since coming back, so

Vote: Voltgloss

This puts him to 5.  L-2, I believe.

I do think he is the best lynch of today (you should sign up for my game when you die) but I want a hammer that isn't on myself, so ill hammer.

[nkirbit]

So, if we have no more PRs claim today in any capacity, is it worth having UoS fullclaim before we lynch?  I'm just thinking he's almost assuredly going to be the NK of at least one of the scum teams should he be town, and we should remove the fakeclaim before they learn a safe fakeclaim for them to make?

[ashersky]

So, if we have no more PRs claim today in any capacity, is it worth having UoS fullclaim before we lynch?  I'm just thinking he's almost assuredly going to be the NK of at least one of the scum teams should he be town, and we should remove the fakeclaim before they learn a safe fakeclaim for them to make?

This is probably the correct move.  We need 3 PR claims (without counters) or a UoS fullclaim.  Not both.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 1.7

nkirbit (1): Voltaire
Voltgloss (5): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit
Voltaire (1): Jorbles
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (2): yuma, mail-mi 
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (1): liopoil

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The day will end on August 17th at 9:00 PM Forum Time.

Thank you yuma and sudgy for doing a Vote Count while I was away. I should be able to do one more regularly from now on.

[Voltaire]

I can't comment on Volt in previous games, but I agree his reactions post-shraeye post have been scummy. "Meh, oh well!" and going gracefully into the night - I think that's scum WIFOM of "wait scum would fight this harder". yuma points out that apparently Volt has done this in the past but that's awhile ago and I'm not comfortable making such a big decision based on very old meta information I wasn't directly involved with.

I also do not buy the defense given the timing of the posts in each place, as pointed out by others.

Intent to vote Voltgloss after UoS comes back and we sort out what's happening there.

I also really like the reactions this has caused.

[Voltgloss]

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

So this obvious lie of a defense doesn't register to you?

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

Now this is much more interesting. Because it isn't a slip, it is a contradiction. But is it really a contradiction? I mean I can kinda see what he is trying to say. That he has been alternating posting "here" as in the f.ds forum in general and the QT he is working on.

But I guess what now worries me is that he hasn't come out and said that himself...

That is, indeed, what I was trying to get across.  But I don't expect it to be believed.  See, I know if positions were reversed that I wouldn't believe it.  Hence my resignation to being lynched.  Really, my mislynch now is just a matter of "when," not "if.". And better it be today, when our chance of mislynch is highest anyway.

I am VT, by the way.  So no worries about the town mislynching a PR today either.

It is what is.  My lynch hurts town but I have only myself to blame.  Sorry town.  I am rusty and sloppy, and will try to do better next time.

We absolutely should wait for UoS though.

Also, when I am dead and flip town, be sure to scrutinize - not only Robz - but also liopoil.  Jumping on my wagon excitedly and almost immediately jumping off (when he sees he isn't "needed") is what I would expect overeager Mafia to do here.

[Voltgloss]

And with that I'm going to bed.

[Archetype]

UmbrageOfSnow has been replaced by chairs.

[mail-mi]

UmbrageOfSnow has been replaced by chairs.

Cgairs! Tell us what PR u are!

[liopoil]

voltgloss... why did you claim??

[Robz888]

voltgloss... why did you claim??

Because we are going to lynch him.

[Robz888]

Chairs--this is the situatio you are in: You claimed, for absurd reasons, generic PR. We need you to tell us WHICH PR, though. Soon plz. Don't confer with your scummates first.

[Robz888]

He's online right now.

[nkirbit]

Yeah, Chairs, which PR are you?  UoS put you in this spot, you gotta answer.

[liopoil]

guys, I don't think he's online...

[chairs]

Sorry, I was on lunch on my mobile!

UoS is dumb.

DUMB.

[chairs]

(That said, are we 100% sold that UOS-now-chairs fullclaim is right?)

[chairs]

Errrm... and I mean in the context of this game.  I'm sure he/she is a wonderful and intelligent person elsewhere.

[liopoil]

that's weird, looking at "who's online" chairs popped in and out of being online.

[liopoil]

well, actually, he was drunk when he claimed. anyway, yeah, we've pretty much decided you have to claim.

[nkirbit]

I think so, unfortunately.  If you get NKed, we don't find out which PR you can use, and whichever scum kills you can safely use it as a fakeclaim.

I think I would prefer all 3 PRs claiming generic PR, honestly.  So I think we should as a group decide which we want.

Don't claim this second, actually.  I think we should vote or something on if we want the other two PRs to claim or you to fakeclaim.

[nkirbit]

or you to fullclaim.

[shraeye]

I think so, unfortunately.  If you get NKed, we don't find out which PR you can use, and whichever scum kills you can safely use it as a fakeclaim.

I think I would prefer all 3 PRs claiming generic PR, honestly.  So I think we should as a group decide which we want.

Don't claim this second, actually.  I think we should vote or something on if we want the other two PRs to claim or you to fakeclaim.

Hwaaaa?!

[chairs]

I think so, unfortunately.  If you get NKed, we don't find out which PR you can use, and whichever scum kills you can safely use it as a fakeclaim.

I think I would prefer all 3 PRs claiming generic PR, honestly.  So I think we should as a group decide which we want.

Don't claim this second, actually.  I think we should vote or something on if we want the other two PRs to claim or you to fakeclaim.

  Are you scumslipping over there, nkirbit?  Have I managed to be useful despite almost certainly heading towards a N1 death-by-NK?

[nkirbit]

Well, keep in mind, it's only a scumslip if Chairs and I are scumbuddies.  It was a slip, but not a scumslip.

[liopoil]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

[chairs]

Well, keep in mind, it's only a scumslip if Chairs and I are scumbuddies.  It was a slip, but not a scumslip.

Even if we're not scumbuddies, if you've got plans for potential fakeclaims in mind, and we don't lynch the PRs/the people who killed the PRs, you can claim "oh, Chairs was probably fakeclaiming, he's not really [redacted], I'm the real [redacted]".

[nkirbit]

I don't think chairs was fakeclaiming.  I had used the work fakeclaim early in my post, and we were discussing chairs fullclaiming to later remove the possibility of fakeclaiming.  The words were very much connected, and very close to one another.  That's how I got them mixed up.

[chairs]

My point, I guess, is this: What scum will have to ask themselves is "Should I NK Chairs, or shouldn't I, so he looks scummy for not dying?"

Good luck 

[nkirbit]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

Yes.  But say mafia kills the cop night1, and then the next day claims a cop result.  We don't know the cop is dead, there's no cop alive to counterclaim, so we are somewhat likely to believe him.  All 3 PRs claiming generic PR somewhat mitigates this, since no one other than those 3 can ever claim PR.

There are negatives to it, since it creates NK targets.  I certainly like it less than not claiming anything at all.  But I'm undecided if I like it better than one PR fullclaiming.

(Chairs fullclaiming is certainly better than Chairs claiming generic PR, I'm pretty sure of this.)

[liopoil]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

Yes.  But say mafia kills the cop night1, and then the next day claims a cop result.  We don't know the cop is dead, there's no cop alive to counterclaim, so we are somewhat likely to believe him.  All 3 PRs claiming generic PR somewhat mitigates this, since no one other than those 3 can ever claim PR.

There are negatives to it, since it creates NK targets.  I certainly like it less than not claiming anything at all.  But I'm undecided if I like it better than one PR fullclaiming.

(Chairs fullclaiming is certainly better than Chairs claiming generic PR, I'm pretty sure of this.)

sure. and if we ever lynch their scumbuddy, or lynch the SK-who-killed-scumbuddy, or the vig shoot the scumbuddy, than the fakeclaiming scum is caught.

[nkirbit]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

Yes.  But say mafia kills the cop night1, and then the next day claims a cop result.  We don't know the cop is dead, there's no cop alive to counterclaim, so we are somewhat likely to believe him.  All 3 PRs claiming generic PR somewhat mitigates this, since no one other than those 3 can ever claim PR.

There are negatives to it, since it creates NK targets.  I certainly like it less than not claiming anything at all.  But I'm undecided if I like it better than one PR fullclaiming.

(Chairs fullclaiming is certainly better than Chairs claiming generic PR, I'm pretty sure of this.)

sure. and if we ever lynch their scumbuddy, or lynch the SK-who-killed-scumbuddy, or the vig shoot the scumbuddy, than the fakeclaiming scum is caught.

Why are you assuming that if mafia1 kills somebody, mafia2 will be the one to fakeclaim?

[chairs]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

Yes.  But say mafia kills the cop night1, and then the next day claims a cop result.  We don't know the cop is dead, there's no cop alive to counterclaim, so we are somewhat likely to believe him.  All 3 PRs claiming generic PR somewhat mitigates this, since no one other than those 3 can ever claim PR.

There are negatives to it, since it creates NK targets.  I certainly like it less than not claiming anything at all.  But I'm undecided if I like it better than one PR fullclaiming.

(Chairs fullclaiming is certainly better than Chairs claiming generic PR, I'm pretty sure of this.)

I think nobody should have claimed to begin with, and probably no claim should ever be made this game except as a counterclaim (which shouldn't happen because there shouldn't be a claim to counter), but what's done is done.  I particularly think that people are underestimating the utility of vig, as particularly since we don't get NK flips Vig's NK (where he gets a flip) is crucial in an almost Cop-like manner, especially if Vig hits late-game and snags SK/Mafia kill flips as well.

[Voltgloss]

I don't think chairs was fakeclaiming.  I had used the work fakeclaim early in my post, and we were discussing chairs fullclaiming to later remove the possibility of fakeclaiming.  The words were very much connected, and very close to one another.  That's how I got them mixed up.

Just like HTML tags.

Chairs, I am dead meat walking, but I also think you need to full claim at this point.  I don't see enough of the town getting behind the all-PRs-claim-generic-PR idea.

[Robz888]

CHairs, we already decided you need to fullclaim. Do so now, please.

[shraeye]

no no no. only chairs should claim, and UoS shouldn't have claimed unless he is the vig, in which case he should have just skipped to claiming vig.

people, when we lynch someone who has dead bodies in their possession, we find out their allignments... this makes fakeclaiming much more dangerous for scum.

Not quite, because we'll only learn that a fake-claim is a fakeclaim, WHEN we lynch the fake-claimant, as long as they were the one who ate up that body.

[liopoil]

oh, I thought if we kill a mafia we find out all kills ever done by mafia. I didn't think that we'd only find out the one that the mafia who we lynched killed. oh well.

yeah, even vig claim is probably bad, but the reason it isn't nearly as bad is because A) they still can use their shot on N1, if another PR claimed, they would never get any use out of them, and B) this way the cop can trust his results.

chairs!claim time.

[shraeye]

(Chairs fullclaiming is certainly better than Chairs claiming generic PR, I'm pretty sure of this.)

I agree with this.  The problem is that you're almost certainly going to die tonight, and then at some point in the future, people will claim PR, and scum can claim your role.  So we'll still have 3 PR claims, but even if they all say what they are, we won't be able to tell which is lying, because we wouldn't know which one was yours.

[chairs]

I am the Cop.

This is why I think the generic claim was a mistake.

[Robz888]

I am the Cop.

This is why I think the generic claim was a mistake.

It was a huge mistake--albeit not one you made, so, not your fault.

[chairs]

Just remember that my death tonight will prove my claim so scum don't get to counterclaim later on and say I was probably scum.

[Voltaire]

At least the sk and mafia have to WIFOM each other.

Vote: Voltgloss

This is L-1. If there's anything else we need to discuss (I do not think there is) take note. I'm heading off for my semi-V/LA (very restricted reading/posting through Saturday) in the next two hours.

[Robz888]

At least the sk and mafia have to WIFOM each other.

Vote: Voltgloss

This is L-1. If there's anything else we need to discuss (I do not think there is) take note. I'm heading off for my semi-V/LA (very restricted reading/posting through Saturday) in the next two hours.

Hold on. I mean, this is probably not necessary, but we do need to give everybody the chance to counterclaim, or else this as really abusrdly pointless.

[Voltaire]

At least the sk and mafia have to WIFOM each other.

Vote: Voltgloss

This is L-1. If there's anything else we need to discuss (I do not think there is) take note. I'm heading off for my semi-V/LA (very restricted reading/posting through Saturday) in the next two hours.

Hold on. I mean, this is probably not necessary, but we do need to give everybody the chance to counterclaim, or else this as really abusrdly pointless.

unvote, but I don't see the need.

[Voltaire]

Oh I guess I see what you are saying could be going on. Eh. Not likely.

[liopoil]

dang it. bad bad bad . we had to do this though. UoS messed up.

I'm not counterclaiming.

people yet to not-counterclaim:

Jorbles
Eevee
nkirbit
yuma
shraeye
mail-mi

[Eevee]

nope

[shraeye]

nope

[nkirbit]

not the cop.

Damn, this isn't good at all.

[ashersky]

Is a town fake counter useful?

[mail-mi]

Nope and nope to ash. Intent to hammer Gloss when Aire gets back.

[Voltaire]

Nope and nope to ash. Intent to hammer Gloss when Aire gets back.

I haven't gone anywhere (yet). I'm just waiting on everyone to check in now.

[mail-mi]

Nope and nope to ash. Intent to hammer Gloss when Aire gets back.

I haven't gone anywhere (yet). I'm just waiting on everyone to check in now.

By "get back," I meant "votes again."

[mail-mi]

dang it. bad bad bad . we had to do this though. UoS messed up.

I'm not counterclaiming.

people yet to not-counterclaim:

Jorbles
Eevee
nkirbit
yuma
shraeye
mail-mi
ash

Names who didn't counterclaim struck out.

[yuma]

not counterclaiming

[mail-mi]

dang it. bad bad bad . we had to do this though. UoS messed up.

I'm not counterclaiming.

people yet to not-counterclaim:

Jorbles
Eevee
nkirbit
yuma
shraeye
mail-mi
ash

Names who didn't counterclaim struck out.

Just waiting for jorbs.

[Jorbles]

Oh sorry, I'm behind, but I am not counterclaiming.

[Jorbles]

Oh, well I guess there's not much more to say. Vote: Voltgloss. Is that the hammer? If it is we met a soft deadline for once, albeit on a big scum slip!

[mail-mi]

And the hammer!

vote: Voltgloss

My first hammer not on myself

[ashersky]

And the hammer!

vote: Voltgloss

My first hammer not on myself

Congrats.

[ashersky]

Volt, want to confess now?  We'll put you in the Frisk Category of scumslips.

[sudgy]

THREAD LOCKED

[sudgy]

Final Vote Count

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

[Archetype]

The members of the Dinner Party decided to split up to cover more ground. With 12 people, the buddy system was used and 6 groups of 2 people each vacated the main room and headed up to look at the floor above.

The Judoon Captain and Ood Sigma became a pair and opted to stay on the main floor. Sarah Smith decided this was her time to do some detective work, so K-9 and herself joined up with a young man standing suspiciously in the back corner. She didn't want to give identity away, so she created a pseudonym (a username, if you will) and walked over to introduce herself.

She told the man in the corner her alias and held out her hand to shake. "Hi," The man said, "I'm <color=grey><b>Voltglos</b></color>". Sarah asked if he'd like to go and explore the mansion, and he said yes. So the three of them headed upstairs.

The first room they entered was the kitchen. They saw two guys in there messing around with kitchen whisks and plunger looking things; one even looked like he had one of the whisks coming right out of his body! "How silly..." Sarah muttered and walked down the hallway. Voltgloss and K-9 lingered a little bit longer before following their companion.

The next room they entered was the ballroom. The walls were painted a dull pink and long drapes covered the windows. A couple of lounge chairs were pushed against the back wall and big chandelier hung from the ceiling, but several bulbs were out, casting a dark shadow across the giant room. The room itself was bare except for one person standing in the center of faded purple carpet. The guy looked to be doing some sort of mechanical dance. His arms moving in robotic fashion and legs awkwardly teetering side to side.

"Groovin' moves!" Sarah shouted. The man looked up, startled and quit with the dance moves. He composed himself and quickly walked out of the room. He didn't reply or anything. Only a dull humming could be heard emitting from him.

Voltgloss stared at the man for a little while longer before turning back to face the ballroom. His eyes lit up as he pranced his way to the center of the room. "This room reminds me of my wedding day..." He sighed, leaping through the air and performing dazzling pirouettes; showing exactly what 5 years of ballet can teach you.

K-9 and Sarah Jane exchanged a glance before she asked, "Excuse me, um, sir. What is your actual name?"

Voltgloss stopped mid-spin and turned to face her. He figured that this girl seemed trustworthy enough to tell her his actual name.

"Donna Noble." He, er, she responded.

Sarah's eyes grew wide and thought "So he's a girl. Or she's a boy. Or.." She shook her head, trying not to think too hard about it and asked, "So how was your wedding day?"

"Oh a complete disaster." Donna said. "Robot Santas crashed the party and my groom ended up being a servant to an evil arachnid." She laughed at and gazed at a tall window, staring at the faint light coming through the drapes, "But I did end up meeting The Doctor."

Sarah Jane Smith smiled, "So you were his companion?"

"Yes." She said, "But not at first. You see, he asked me to travel with him, but I said no. I thought I wouldn't be able to handle it; I would go mad! And I did go mad! But not because he was by my side; but because I was away from his. I eventually found him again, and he offered again to have me join him in his TARDIS. This time I said yes. We went on wonderful adventures across the entire scope of the galaxy meeting new species and saving planets. But planets weren't the only things we saved. I ended up saving the entire galaxy! From Dalek Caan! Hah! Me! Could you believe it?"

She stared blankly, and then turned and walked back towards Sarah. "But then he dropped me off and, poof, just like that I was back to my normal life. My memory wiped as if it had never happened."

Donna began walking down the hallway with K-9 and Sarah following close behind. Sarah Jane Smith grew puzzled and asked, "But if your memory was wiped, how would you have known your memory was wiped in the first place?"

Donna laughed. "Time doesn't work like that. You should know that better than anyone, Sarah Smith."

"How did she know my name!?" Sarah thought. But she didn't get any time to ask. When they rounded a corner and peered down the grand staircase, they could see Ood Sigma, the Judoon Captain and 8 other guests were waiting for them at the base of it. And they didn't look happy.

"There she is!" Someone yelled. "Grab her!"

Sarah cowered in fear, scared of what the mob would do to her. But then she realized it wasn't her they were after.

"Let me go you ruffians!" Donna exclaimed. Struggling to get out of the grip of two people grabbing onto either arm. Hey! Sarah thought," These were the same two yahoos that were in the kitchen!

Sarah Jane Smith ran after her. "Stop! What are you doing!?"

"She's a Dalek!" One of the mobsters yelled. The others cheered in agreement. "We found this in her bag!" Someone said, holding a slightly bent kitchen whisk high in the air. A classic Dalek weapon!" Everyone yelled triumphantly. "Now let's lynch her!"

"No! No no no!" Sarah Smith protested, trying to shove her way through the crowd. But it was no use. The cheers of the crowd had reached a volume so high, no one could hear her.

The throng of people grew louder as the Judoon Captain pulled out a blaster and pointed it at Donna Noble. She tried to move out of the gun's scope, but she couldn't. The two men who were messing around in the kitchen had pinned her to the wall and were smiling maliciously.

"That's just a kitchen whiiiiiiiiisk!" Sarah Smith said in an over-dramatic slow-motion fashion. But it was too late. The Captain had pulled the trigger and vaporized Donna Noble to ashes.

Voltgloss, otherwise known as Donna Noble the Town-aligned Vanilla Townie has been lynched.

[Archetype]

The chorus died down as the sky outside darkened. A giant monolith of a ship could be seen in the distance, slowly approaching the mansion.

"With only 11 people alive, that leaves one open spot." Ood Sigma said informatively.

"Everyone run!" The Judoon Captain screamed.

The group scattered, but it was no use. The Dalek ship was too close.

Chaos ensued. The house began shaking and books began toppling off of the shelves. Everyone lied splattered against the ground and grabbed onto anything they could. Some people tried to escape the house, but they couldn't bring themselves close enough.

"Fire the Memory Beam!" Two unknown characters yelled.

Sarah turned to see who the pairing could be. She whirled around to see two men - the same too men who had been in the kitchen - with their arms spread wide and looking towards the ship. But they looked different. A long eyepiece jutted out their mouth and their feet weren't touching the ground. Instead, small wheels supported them. But she knew their pseudonym. She knew who the Daleks were.

She gripped the banister and pulled herself up, "Everyone!" She screamed over the chorus of the ship's deep buzz. "The Daleks are-"

In the blink of an eye and a flash of light a beam was sent from the mouth of the Dalek ship, simultaneously wiping everyone's memory and zapping them unconscious.

Night 1 start!

Night actions are due in 48 hours to both sudgy and I.

[Archetype]

Episode 2
Suffering from the aftermath of the memory beam, the party guests now must band together to try and piece together who is who and eliminate those cursed duo of Daleks and that malicious solitary Cyberman.

The party guests had gathered together in the center of the room to talk with one another. Each only having an inkling of what they were and the only knowledge of their names being their pseudonyms.

"I'm...Voltaire" One man said. "Hi! I'm Mail-mi!" Another said. "I'm nkirbit!" Some yahoo in the back said. Everyone began shouting out their names until all had revealed their identity: Voltaire, mail-mi, nkiribt, shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, Jorbles, yuma, and liopoil.

"Hey, what's that?" Eevee asked, pointing and walking over to a piece of paper stapled next to the front door's frame. The paper had 12 names on it, but the name Voltgloss was crossed out.

Jorbles walked over to join him, scanned the list, and remarked, "It's a list of names of everyone here! Except, wait. Who's Voltgloss?"

Everyone looked around trying to find this mysterious person, until shraeye pointed and said, "I think that's him." Everyone looked where shraeye had pointed to see it was a pile of ashes against a wall.

"Oh..." Jorbles muttered sadly, "Is anyone here chairs? And what about ashersky?"

Everyone replied 'No.' and looked around to find the faces to match these names.

liopoil walked towards the base of the stairs and pointed to a pile of black ashes on them. A white note card was placed on top of the soot. 'Chairs' the notecard read in typed letters. "I think this is, or was, chairs."

"And this must be ashersky," yuma said, pointing to a pile of black dust in the corner of the room with a similar piece of paper on top of it.

"What happened to them?" mail-mi asked.

"I guess someone, or something, killed them." nkiribt replied.

"Were they important?" shraeye inquired.

Jorbles grimaced as he crossed out 'ashersky' and 'chairs', "I guess we'll never know."


--

chairs has been vaporized!

ashersky has been vaporized!

Day 2 start!

Not Voting: (9) Voltaire, mail-mi, nkiribt, shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, Jorbles, yuma, and liopoil
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

The day will end August 26th.

[Jorbles]

So thoughts? It's not surprising that chairs/UoS was shot.

I'm going to put forward that I think ashersky was shot because he came forward with the PR plan. Scum often PR hunt by looking to see who talk most about PR theory.

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

[liopoil]

So thoughts? It's not surprising that chairs/UoS was shot.

I'm going to put forward that I think ashersky was shot because he came forward with the PR plan. Scum often PR hunt by looking to see who talk most about PR theory.

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

I decided I didn't think the slip meant anything even before yuma did. you can say that we wanted towncred for being off wagon because we thought it would go through anyway... but meh.

[liopoil]

only two deaths. either:

- mafia didn't shoot. why??
- SK didn't shoot. why??
- vig didn't shoot. why??
- mafia got roleblocked
- vig got roleblocked

[liopoil]

oh, also possible:

- two people shot the same player
- someone shot the SK

that's a lot of possibilities.

[Jorbles]

Given those possibilities, is it useful for a roleblocker to claim? (if the vig shot and the shot didn't go through they might want to hold off on claiming if they think there is a good possibility they shot the SK)

[nkirbit]

I don't think we want to out more PRs at this point.

1)  We don't know if the roleblocker claim would be legit.  It's possible Ashersky was the roleblocker.

2)  Even if the roleblocker claims his result, I don't think that it would necessarily tell us what happened.  For example, the vig could've shot Ashersky and both scumteams shot Chairs.  Or the vig and one scumteam both shot Ash.  Or the roleblocker hit.  Or the vig declined to shoot.  There's so many options that a sincere roleblocker claim won't necessarily be helpful, and we can't even be sure such a claim would be sincere.

I'm going to go back and re-read day1 later, and post my thoughts on it.

[Robz888]

I don't think we want to out more PRs at this point.

1)  We don't know if the roleblocker claim would be legit.  It's possible Ashersky was the roleblocker.

2)  Even if the roleblocker claims his result, I don't think that it would necessarily tell us what happened.  For example, the vig could've shot Ashersky and both scumteams shot Chairs.  Or the vig and one scumteam both shot Ash.  Or the roleblocker hit.  Or the vig declined to shoot.  There's so many options that a sincere roleblocker claim won't necessarily be helpful, and we can't even be sure such a claim would be sincere.

I'm going to go back and re-read day1 later, and post my thoughts on it.

1) It IS possible, but that would mean ashersky lied as town. He claimed VT, remember?

2) Nevertheless I agree with you that the RB shouldn't claim.

The most likely thing is that the Town Vig (wisely) did not shoot. Town Vigs are negative utility on Night 1! They shouldn't shoot! Sorry I guess I forgot to give that rant yesterday, I just assumed everybody knew at this point.

[liopoil]

The most likely thing is that the Town Vig (wisely) did not shoot. Town Vigs are negative utility on Night 1! They shouldn't shoot! Sorry I guess I forgot to give that rant yesterday, I just assumed everybody knew at this point.

FoS: Robz888 for not giving that rant yesterday, actually. that's the kinda thing I expect him to do as town each game with a vig. maybe he forgot, or maybe he's scum.

but actually I disagree with that. I really hope the vig shot last night.

my best bet is that both the SK and mafia shot chairs, and the vig shot ashersky.

[Robz888]

The most likely thing is that the Town Vig (wisely) did not shoot. Town Vigs are negative utility on Night 1! They shouldn't shoot! Sorry I guess I forgot to give that rant yesterday, I just assumed everybody knew at this point.

FoS: Robz888 for not giving that rant yesterday, actually. that's the kinda thing I expect him to do as town each game with a vig. maybe he forgot, or maybe he's scum.

but actually I disagree with that. I really hope the vig shot last night.

my best bet is that both the SK and mafia shot chairs, and the vig shot ashersky.

Oh boy, we are really going to get into it now.

[Robz888]

VIGS SHOULD NOT SHOOT NIGHT 1. THEY SHOULD NOT SHOOT, PERIOD. THESE SHOTS ARE ALWAYS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO HIT TOWN.


The Vig has two good uses for town.

1). Let's say we have two people claiming to be Cop (and there can only be 1). Let's say we lynch the wrong Cop, this person flips Cop. The Vig should then shoot the other person.

2). Let's say we are in the end-game. In desperate straits. The Vig can shoot, because hey, we need to get lucky to win.

That's it. The Vig should not be conducting his own privat scumhunting expedition on early nights. These shots always always always hurt the town.

[Robz888]

Yes, I should have given this rant yesterday. It simply wasn't on my mind--we were, from the get go, discussing other things. I also thought it was just common knowledge at this point.

[Robz888]

Hey look, here's a game where town was crippled because the Town Vig shot the Town Innocent Child! Mafia won in a nailbiter.

Mafia VIII -- http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3675.0

[Robz888]

What's this? Oh, a game where the Serial Killer won after a late Town Vigging cost them the game.

Mafia IX -- http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3907.0

[Robz888]

Here we have a game where a the Town Vig shot on Night 1, killing Town. Mafia won the game.

Mafia XII -- http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4680.0

[liopoil]

oh wow. did not mean to trigger that. look, we're in D2. N1 is over. do we need to have this discussion now? I don't really want to get into this. or do you think that the vig shouldn't shoot tonight either?

[Robz888]

oh wow. did not mean to trigger that. look, we're in D2. N1 is over. do we need to have this discussion now? I don't really want to get into this. or do you think that the vig shouldn't shoot tonight either?

I KNOW the Vig shouldn't shoot tonight.

[Robz888]

Galzria has a pretty good track record with this. If he was in this game, and wanted to Vig, maybe.

Perhaps... perhaps... I trust yuma to take a shot? Assuming he is town.

I don't trust myself, and I don't trust anyone else.

[liopoil]

I don't really care who the vig is, they have a nonzero chance of hitting scum. not only that, they have at least a (number of scum alive)/(number of player alive - 1) chance of hitting scum, because even if they have no reads, they can shoot randomly.

this is slightly different because there are two scum factions, but a scum kill has a smaller chance of hitting scum than a vigilante kill does, because they won't hit their own faction.

I'm 100% aware that vigs can and have lost games for town. So can lynches, and a vig shot is like an extra free lynch. mislynches have lost tons of games for town too. but lynches are the only way to kill scum, that's why we use them. with a vig, we get more chances to kill scum. more chances to kill scum is good. the goal of this game is to kill scum, not keep town alive. keeping town alive just gives us more time to kill scum.

I really really doubt that the chance of hitting scum with a lynch is much higher than the chance of hitting scum with a vig.

[Robz888]

I don't really care who the vig is, they have a nonzero chance of hitting scum. not only that, they have at least a (number of scum alive)/(number of player alive - 1) chance of hitting scum, because even if they have no reads, they can shoot randomly.

this is slightly different because there are two scum factions, but a scum kill has a smaller chance of hitting scum than a vigilante kill does, because they won't hit their own faction.

I'm 100% aware that vigs can and have lost games for town. So can lynches, and a vig shot is like an extra free lynch. mislynches have lost tons of games for town too. but lynches are the only way to kill scum, that's why we use them. with a vig, we get more chances to kill scum. more chances to kill scum is good. the goal of this game is to kill scum, not keep town alive. keeping town alive just gives us more time to kill scum.

I really really doubt that the chance of hitting scum with a lynch is much higher than the chance of hitting scum with a vig.

You're wrong, and everything we know proves you wrong. Vig is like an extra lynch, and extra lynches are not so good! At least not at first. With a Vig, we have more chances to kill town, and that's what happens.

[Jorbles]

1)  We don't know if the roleblocker claim would be legit.  It's possible Ashersky was the roleblocker.

As Rob said it's possible ash was a town PR, but on reflection I think that it's most likely that ash was either VT as he claimed or mafia. If he was a PR then he would have had to explain his false claim if people had come around to his all 3 PRs claiming plan, which seems like an assbackwards way of introducing a plan (and if he was SK he would have survived the shot). Either way I think he was shot by a scum team who may have suspected his early VT claim to be a scum gambit by the other team. I lean towards thinking he was VT, but YMMV.

[Robz888]

It is possible he was shot by a town Vig who didn't believe his claim. In which case, it WOULD be helpful to know who was roleblocked. But I don't think the odds of this are high enough to merit claiming. Because I do think most people know not to shoot....

Well, I don't know. Maybe we should do this. If you are the town Vig, and you shot ashersky, perhaps you should claim.

We know the town Vig is still alive, since chairs/UoS was definitely not town Vig, and unless ashersky lied as town, he isn't either. So the town Vig is almost certainly still alive. And if you shot ash--someone I don't think was super likely to be shot by scum, so again, this makes some sense--we know there was duplication, or roleblocking success.

Does this make sense?

[Robz888]

Okay okay, on second thought.

Yeah, town Vig shot ash, and mafia AND Sk shot UoS/chairs, right?

That's probably just what happened and no one should claim, because we would learn nothing. Carry on.

But shame on you, town Vig. Shame.

[nkirbit]

I don't know.  The SK has to shoot Chairs, pretty much, since if he gets outed, he loses.  The mafia know this, so could have shot Ash, and the vig declined to shoot.  It's certainly a possibility.

It doesn't matter, because there are very few circumstances where claiming roleblocker is good, and we can't be sure those circumstances even happened.  We really need to hope SK/mafia get caught in crossfire at some point.

[Robz888]

We just don't know anything here. Anythng at all. All we know is that we lost our Cop.

[Jorbles]

Well let's move on then. We've got a couple things we should definitely look at before we get down to lynching anyone and they are:
1) People's positions on Voltgloss.
2) Voltgloss's reads.

I'm too busy right now, but I'll be looking at both these things this weekend.

[yuma]

We just don't know anything here. Anythng at all. All we know is that we lost our Cop.

Exactly. We know absolutely nothing. I am not going to say I told you so... No. I am.

I told you so. I am going to PM myself the link to this post so that I can quote it from here on out when someone tries to convince me that something was a "slip." Because they aren't.

And now we have a dead townie, a dead cop, and ashersky is dead (probably a townie). And voltgloss's flip did nothing for us. How can I tell? Because right now no one is talking about who was where or volt's wagon or who had opinions about volt's wagon. Why? Because there isn't anything to talk about. That situation is the same as theory--a person is going to react to it exactly the same as town or as mafia, thus it isn't useful for scum hunting. Anything you try to get out of it is a major stretch.

Mostly I am extremely frustrated. My reads are exactly the same as they were before volt's <i>slip</b>. Meaning... probably not very good. I have spoken in the past about how much I rely on that day1 flip to solidify my reads and how much better they are after the context of a flip. And right now, I don't have that. So. Thanks. Good job town.

[nkirbit]

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

[Robz888]

We just don't know anything here. Anythng at all. All we know is that we lost our Cop.

Exactly. We know absolutely nothing. I am not going to say I told you so... No. I am.

I told you so. I am going to PM myself the link to this post so that I can quote it from here on out when someone tries to convince me that something was a "slip." Because they aren't.

And now we have a dead townie, a dead cop, and ashersky is dead (probably a townie). And voltgloss's flip did nothing for us. How can I tell? Because right now no one is talking about who was where or volt's wagon or who had opinions about volt's wagon. Why? Because there isn't anything to talk about. That situation is the same as theory--a person is going to react to it exactly the same as town or as mafia, thus it isn't useful for scum hunting. Anything you try to get out of it is a major stretch.

Mostly I am extremely frustrated. My reads are exactly the same as they were before volt's <i>slip</b>. Meaning... probably not very good. I have spoken in the past about how much I rely on that day1 flip to solidify my reads and how much better they are after the context of a flip. And right now, I don't have that. So. Thanks. Good job town.

Um, okay, I was more saying, we don't know anything because we don't get dead people's flips. I was lamenting the setup, not our Day 1 lynch.

Our Day 1 lynch was of course not ideal--we hit town. But I don't know that it's anywhere close to as devoid of information as you make it out to be.

I find you mildly scummy for taking an I Told You So stance, actually.

[yuma]

I find you mildly scummy for taking an I Told You So stance, actually.

Why? I was right. And I believe I am also right about the lack of context that volt's flip provided. I am not happy that I am right, but no one has yet proven that I am wrong. I will certainly be looking--and have already somewhat looked--for information from it, but I am going in rather skeptical to be honest. I don't see why having that opinion is scummy though.

[Robz888]

I find you mildly scummy for taking an I Told You So stance, actually.

Why? I was right. And I believe I am also right about the lack of context that volt's flip provided. I am not happy that I am right, but no one has yet proven that I am wrong. I will certainly be looking--and have already somewhat looked--for information from it, but I am going in rather skeptical to be honest. I don't see why having that opinion is scummy though.

Well, let's just talk then. What do you make of Volt's contention that I am scum?

[yuma]

I find you mildly scummy for taking an I Told You So stance, actually.

Why? I was right. And I believe I am also right about the lack of context that volt's flip provided. I am not happy that I am right, but no one has yet proven that I am wrong. I will certainly be looking--and have already somewhat looked--for information from it, but I am going in rather skeptical to be honest. I don't see why having that opinion is scummy though.

Well, let's just talk then. What do you make of Volt's contention that I am scum?

The opinion of a townie from day1. Just like my reads or any other townie. However, from a townie who I generally respect for scum hunting skills. I haven't really looked into the full merits of his case, but I do fully intend to do so (if for no other reason than it was Voltgloss's dying wish and that I have found scum from going off a read from dead voltgloss before)

[Robz888]

Hedgy. I see.

[yuma]

Hedgy. I see.

...

I haven't really looked into the full merits of his case

[Robz888]

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

[Robz888]

Come out scum. Say hi.

[yuma]

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

Will do. But probably not until Monday, when I am off from work.

and, it is the weekend...

[yuma]

I find you mildly scummy for taking an I Told You So stance, actually.

Why? I was right. And I believe I am also right about the lack of context that volt's flip provided. I am not happy that I am right, but no one has yet proven that I am wrong. I will certainly be looking--and have already somewhat looked--for information from it, but I am going in rather skeptical to be honest. I don't see why having that opinion is scummy though.

I guess I didn't actually ask you to answer a question, because I didn't phrase it in the form of a question, but it did irk me a bit that you didn't respond to my last sentence. But to make sure you understand it is a question, I'll phrase it better:

Why do you think that taking an I Told You So stance is scummy?

[Voltaire]

Why do you think that taking an I Told You So stance is scummy?

I'll answer this, since I had the exact same reaction catching up (hi everyone, I'm caught up!). Because it's not useful, and because determining who was "right" about this sort of thing is not useful for scumhunting D2. Because it makes you look "right".

I'm not going to be able to make a meaningful catch-up/D2 reaction post until tomorrow, I still want to do weekend things. But this from yuma stood out and is the only thing from D2 I've found worth commenting on.

[Robz888]

And because it was a tad too forceful. I understand that it's nice to be right, but you were over-the-top about it. I can easily imagine it being a sumQT-tested idea, to play the I Told You So card.

[liopoil]

And because it was a tad too forceful. I understand that it's nice to be right, but you were over-the-top about it. I can easily imagine it being a sumQT-tested idea, to play the I Told You So card.

I would have thought we would have learned our lesson about scumhunting based on looking for who was talking in scum QTs yesterday..... I'm not buying it.

[liopoil]

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

...coming back to this...

not really sold on the robz bit, that doesn't seem like much. I agree with ash-yuma being town-town. shraeye? no idea, I should look at his case again. I remember I didn't like it, but dunno if it was scummy or not.

[yuma]

Why do you think that taking an I Told You So stance is scummy?

I'll answer this, since I had the exact same reaction catching up (hi everyone, I'm caught up!). Because it's not useful, and because determining who was "right" about this sort of thing is not useful for scumhunting D2. Because it makes you look "right".

I'm not going to be able to make a meaningful catch-up/D2 reaction post until tomorrow, I still want to do weekend things. But this from yuma stood out and is the only thing from D2 I've found worth commenting on.

I understand what you are getting at here. But I disagree. It is useful. Because hopefully we all learned a valuable lesson here. And that is that "slips" don't equal scum. And that to lynch based solely off a "slip" is just plain dumb. My point really wasn't to pat myself on the back and say "look at me, I am soooo right, you guys were soooo wrong." No. That should be apparent from the result. But rather to drive home the point that blindly going through with a lynch based off a "slip" hasn't worked here, it hasn't worked in the past and it won't work in the future (in this game or in other ones).

[yuma]

And because it was a tad too forceful. I understand that it's nice to be right, but you were over-the-top about it. I can easily imagine it being a sumQT-tested idea, to play the I Told You So card.

too what end?

[Robz888]

And because it was a tad too forceful. I understand that it's nice to be right, but you were over-the-top about it. I can easily imagine it being a sumQT-tested idea, to play the I Told You So card.

too what end?

To look townier.

[Robz888]

Or to play up your towniness, rather.

[Robz888]

And also, thee's something to this as a self-fulfilling prophecy, because you put out this sort of in-your-face statement, I Told You So (you even bolded it!), that we shouldn't have done that lynch and that there will be ntohing to talk about because of it. So of course, we aren't doing much flip analysis because we are arguing about whether your statement was correct.

[shraeye]

Why do you think that taking an I Told You So stance is scummy?

I'll answer this, since I had the exact same reaction catching up (hi everyone, I'm caught up!). Because it's not useful, and because determining who was "right" about this sort of thing is not useful for scumhunting D2. Because it makes you look "right".

I'm not going to be able to make a meaningful catch-up/D2 reaction post until tomorrow, I still want to do weekend things. But this from yuma stood out and is the only thing from D2 I've found worth commenting on.

I understand what you are getting at here. But I disagree. It is useful. Because hopefully we all learned a valuable lesson here. And that is that "slips" don't equal scum. And that to lynch based solely off a "slip" is just plain dumb. My point really wasn't to pat myself on the back and say "look at me, I am soooo right, you guys were soooo wrong." No. That should be apparent from the result. But rather to drive home the point that blindly going through with a lynch based off a "slip" hasn't worked here, it hasn't worked in the past and it won't work in the future (in this game or in other ones).

Also, the slip was part of the case for sure, but I'd be suspicious of peopel voting for it solely based on it's slippiness.  That shit was wrong, and I'm frustrated it was.  I literally did a victory dance when I found that, and now it's just wasted calories.  But the case was based around the tag-slip, him shotgunnign suspicoiun, and helping scum with a demand for readlists, which basically let sucm engineer who kills AND lynches shoud be, something I think would be especially easier in this game because of daychat.

Then, when called out, Voltgloss really acted like caught sucm to me.  So I felt super grate about his lynch for various reasons.  When I'm clearer minded, Imma read back and see who was just like "oh yeah, that's a huge slip" and jumped on what looked to be lke a super easy mioslynch to them.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I agree, the reaction was actually the part where I felt like, "oops, we caught you." But clearly not.

[yuma]

Or to play up your towniness, rather.

how does that make me look townier?

[shraeye]

i'm too drinky to understnad what Robz/yuma are fighitng about.  Robz is scummy because he didn't talk bout vigs, and yuma is scummy because he told you so?  That's about all I understand, and neither psoition seems reasonable.

[yuma]

And also, thee's something to this as a self-fulfilling prophecy, because you put out this sort of in-your-face statement, I Told You So (you even bolded it!), that we shouldn't have done that lynch and that there will be ntohing to talk about because of it. So of course, we aren't doing much flip analysis because we are arguing about whether your statement was correct.

This is true. I will admit that. But I certainly didn't anticipate my comment becoming the focal point of attention. But I still don't see you doing any flip analysis. Or really anyone else. If you want to prove me wrong, but I imagine that there is less to gain out of it than there would be from a non-slip related lynch. I still haven't had the time to go back and look myself... and it appears no one else has either... so maybe the fact that it has been the weekend has more to do it than anything else?

[yuma]

i'm too drinky to understnad what Robz/yuma are fighitng about.  Robz is scummy because he didn't talk bout vigs, and yuma is scummy because he told you so?  That's about all I understand, and neither psoition seems reasonable.

I haven't said anything about Robz not talking about vigs...

[liopoil]

I said the thing about vigs. it is very possible he forgot though, so it's not a huge point. but then he seems like he's over-making up for it now, so that's a bit suspicious too.

[Voltaire]

I'm beginning to think that it's very possible that nkirbit is town, and Voltgloss is gearing up to have me be the suspicious character that takes the rap for any nkirbit lynch.

shraeye, what do you think about nkirbit now?

[Voltaire]

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

How is this possible? You are saying that if Voltgloss is scum, which most of us thought at the time, he is trying to set you up for a mislynch. That doesn't work - Volt, as town, knows that he is going to flip town and is trying to send his strongest read before dying (good town play). You, thinking Volt is scum, claim he is setting you up for a mis-lynch. But you should be thinking that he will flip scum, in which case we will ignore whatever he says. In what universe do we sheep dead scum?

[Robz888]

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

How is this possible? You are saying that if Voltgloss is scum, which most of us thought at the time, he is trying to set you up for a mislynch. That doesn't work - Volt, as town, knows that he is going to flip town and is trying to send his strongest read before dying (good town play). You, thinking Volt is scum, claim he is setting you up for a mis-lynch. But you should be thinking that he will flip scum, in which case we will ignore whatever he says. In what universe do we sheep dead scum?

I was thinking that he would flip scum, so we would say, "Okay, Volt is scum, who is he aligned with? Well, what has he done. You know, he was really anti-Robz at the end. Irrationally anti-Robz. Wanna bet Robz is his partner and he was doing that to make us think Robs was the one person who wasn't his partner?" It's WIFOM (there's an expression we haven't sen in a while...).

[Voltaire]

Eevee continues to lurk hard and mail-mi has gone silent. Like the entire town. This is not how we win.

Let's look at the wagon and see if we can get any blood out of the "turnip".

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's three scum in here somewhere, and one of them is happy with any lynch at all. I think there's a darn good chance there's at least two scum on Volt's wagon. In fact, there pretty much has to be unless both yuma and lio are scum unless the vig shot ash the scum. Removing ash, that leaves:

shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

I cannot decide what to make of yuma and lio being off-wagon. lio rarely votes and I find that scummy, but it is consistent with his meta. I have no idea how to catch scum yuma anymore, not that I ever did. I do not like his D2 one bit, I can say that much.

[Voltaire]

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

Finishing this thought:

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is for lurking now as well as my D1 case.

[liopoil]

Eevee continues to lurk hard and mail-mi has gone silent. Like the entire town. This is not how we win.

Let's look at the wagon and see if we can get any blood out of the "turnip".

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's three scum in here somewhere, and one of them is happy with any lynch at all. I think there's a darn good chance there's at least two scum on Volt's wagon. In fact, there pretty much has to be unless both yuma and lio are scum unless the vig shot ash the scum. Removing ash, that leaves:

shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

I cannot decide what to make of yuma and lio being off-wagon. lio rarely votes and I find that scummy, but it is consistent with his meta. I have no idea how to catch scum yuma anymore, not that I ever did. I do not like his D2 one bit, I can say that much.

I did vote for voltgloss, but then changed my mind.

why do you think robz is town?

[Voltaire]

I did vote for voltgloss, but then changed my mind.

why do you think robz is town?

Point.

I think it is likely that Robz is town, but I would not be above lynching him in some situations. He is just very far down my list of preferences. It is because I find his answer to my question about his paranoia convincing. I admit I am drinking wine here, but I do not want to lynch Robz today.

[Voltaire]

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

Finishing this thought:

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is for lurking now as well as my D1 case.

Seriously, mail-mi has posted elsewhere and not here. And he had no idea how many votes there were on Volt, which is the exact same thing he did in HP as scum.

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

He has 2 or 3 votes.

[Robz888]

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

[yuma]

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

your wish=

1. Jorbles - 43
2. Voltaire - 76
3. Eevee - 20
5. Robz888 - 75
7. nkirbit - 48
8. yuma - 88
10. shraeye - 47
11. mail-mi - 60
12. liopoil - 39

compare to:

post count for reference:

1. Jorbles - 24
2. Voltaire - 37
3. Eevee - 6
4. Voltgloss - 21
5. Robz888 - 5
6. UmbrageOfSnow - 76
7. nkirbit - 24
8. yuma - 49
9. ashersky - 41
10. shraeye - 23
11. mail-mi - 35
12. liopoil - 8

mid day1.

[Robz888]

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

[yuma]

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

nk I think has said very little.
Jorbles said stuff early
mail-mi I can't remember posting all of today
shraeye drunk posted some stuff.
eevee ? VLA? maybe?

[mail-mi]

Eevee continues to lurk hard and mail-mi has gone silent. Like the entire town. This is not how we win.

Let's look at the wagon and see if we can get any blood out of the "turnip".

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's three scum in here somewhere, and one of them is happy with any lynch at all. I think there's a darn good chance there's at least two scum on Volt's wagon. In fact, there pretty much has to be unless both yuma and lio are scum unless the vig shot ash the scum. Removing ash, that leaves:

shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

I cannot decide what to make of yuma and lio being off-wagon. lio rarely votes and I find that scummy, but it is consistent with his meta. I have no idea how to catch scum yuma anymore, not that I ever did. I do not like his D2 one bit, I can say that much.

Ummm, becasue school just started? I have homework and I check in when I can. Sometimes I have something to say. Sometimes I don't.

[mail-mi]

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

Finishing this thought:

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is for lurking now as well as my D1 case.

Seriously, mail-mi has posted elsewhere and not here. And he had no idea how many votes there were on Volt, which is the exact same thing he did in HP as scum.

See above. Also, I don't really keep track of votes that much as town or scum.

[yuma]

alright... my off week. Let's start it off with some rereading:

First thing is to follow up on Volt's accusation of Robz:

Here is the case for easy reference:

So volt is basically harkening back to the pingpongsam where he claimed VT early. Volt was the mod in that game. And there Robz--and basically all of town reacted pretty negatively there. But here, not so much. Well, this is true, but doesn't necessarily make Robz scum. But robz did push it early, as volt says and then it kinda disappeared from the conversation. I guess what volt is saying is that town!robz would push that aggressively? I guess I see where he is coming from, but I guess my response to that is that Robz's play style has changed--I would say significantly changed since voltgloss last played. He posts a lot less and isn't the zealous leader that he was before.

So really, not enough for me to vote. However, what did catch my eye was something that voltaire just brought up. But, I don't think it results in a scum read on Robz. I think it results in a town one:

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

How is this possible? You are saying that if Voltgloss is scum, which most of us thought at the time, he is trying to set you up for a mislynch. That doesn't work - Volt, as town, knows that he is going to flip town and is trying to send his strongest read before dying (good town play). You, thinking Volt is scum, claim he is setting you up for a mis-lynch. But you should be thinking that he will flip scum, in which case we will ignore whatever he says. In what universe do we sheep dead scum?

Even before Robz answered this in the next post I found this a point in favor of Robz. Just because this sort of response I think is difficult for mafia to make (thus making Robz unlikely to be mafia). Because it does require that sort of reverse logic of voltgloss being mafia and trying to paint robz scummy so that everyone would think he was a scum partner and thus we would want to lynch him. Like, I am just getting a little confused thinking about it. So for Robz to be mafia here, he would have to know that voltgloss isn't his partner (I guess he could be SK, but that is another story) but he would have to create a narrative where voltgloss is mafia and is trying to make him look like his partner. Too complex for mafia I think.

[yuma]

Ok, so how about just a reread:

Since I still say that the day1 lynch wagons don't offer a lot of information I think I still need to continue off my day1 reads and use them for a start. So that was primarily voltaire, jorbles to an extent. Everyone else was more or less null with varying degrees of towniness with voltgloss, UoS, robz and shraeye as my "won't lynchers"

So I'll start with looking at voltaire and jorbles.

Volt:
So voltaire's big push throughout day1 was mail-mi. I had a series of conversations with him about mail-mi and that I just didn't see him being anything other than what he normal was as town. I tend to see mail-mi as the "easy lynch" target and someone that mafia will sometimes try to push to get a lynch going and I can't help but wonder if we have a similar situation here.

I do think it is interesting that for like the whole game voltaire has been talking about me saying things like "My yuma!bells are going off right now." but never sticking a vote down. Putting out suspicion on me to see if anyone runs with it and then join when it gets going? I don't know. But that sort of constant mentioning of me obviously gets my attention and then makes me wonder why he hasn't ever actually pursued it beyond that. Kinda makes it seem more staged?

But other than those things, there isn't a lot that I hold against volt. I mean it was day1, so not a whole lot to indicate scumminess. He is posting a fair amount and substance in those posts as well. So I guess it is just those two things: pushing the "easy" wagon on mail-mi--who I think is classic town mail-mi and gently pushing my scumminess--who I know to be town--to see if it takes off?

Also worth pointing out that he had a pretty strong townread on Voltgloss before the "slip"--as did many people I believe--but that obviously changed as he voted for voltgloss because of it.

[yuma]

Jorbles:

I made this post about him in regard to UoS's accusation that he manufactured a case against him:

and ultimately I said about it that: "His build up in coming to a UoS vote was also somewhat scummy. Scum often doesn't want to just have a random read pop up, because then when people go back to reread them they will be suspicious and be like, "what!?! where did that read come from? Suspicious?" They want to avoid that, so to get around it I have often seen scum kinda breadcrumb their potential reads and slowly build them up along the way. Town sometimes does this as well, but it is a more natural progression I think. And before I realized Jorbles reads list was in response to Volt I felt pretty sure that this was on the scummy side... now I am a little less sure that I have all the info."

So kinda scummy, but nothing super solid...

One thing I guess I noticed for the first time was this:

I don't really have strong enough reads to vote for anyone at this point so I'm going to vote for... Robz.

Vote: Robz

Happy Birthday Robz! You look the same as the day I met you! (You still look like the spitting image of Link)

This is one of the latest RVS (Robz or random) votes I have ever seen. Way past the RVS--not that we really even had one--and immediately after a couple of votes that Jorbles doesn't comment on.  But what really gets me is that in lieu of posting reads he RVS's. Scummy! Even if he doesn't have reads (he did comment on a vote on me by eevee I should mention) he can comment on other people's reads. (and again he does start posting more thoughts on other people's reads in the post after this one) I am not sure how I didn't notice this day1--I blame work or a pregnant wife--but if I had I think it would have elicited an immediate vote at that stage in the game.

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).
2. liopoil: he's been on, but I can't really remember anything he's said which is unusual. Usually I remember what he says quite clearly because it's quite out there. This noticeable difference from the norm reads scummy to me.
3. I dunno I don't really have anything strong or weak at this point for a third read. I don't love any of the other cases out there currently though.

I think it was Robz that pointed out that this was a town-tell. I kinda agree. The lack of a third read in response to a question from a player who I think at that point was the "most townie" isn't something I think mafia would do.

However that post is mitigated by this one at the start of day2. If you want something that is fabricated in a scum QT robz, this is the sort of thing you should be looking for:

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

Immediately right out of the gates pushing for me because was unconvinced by a crappy scumslip case? This looks a lot like lio's B2B case on spiritbears right out of the gates.

[yuma]

Oops... hit post before I was completely done. But I guess there wasn't anything else to add except that  interestingly Jorbles has said that he was going to be looking at:

1) People's positions on Voltgloss.
2) Voltgloss's reads.

I'm too busy right now, but I'll be looking at both these things this weekend.

But hasn't as he hasn't posted since that post on Friday.

[nkirbit]

Sorry, I've recently been hit by a serious case of disinterest.  I promise that I will be back tomorrow and contribute more.

[Robz888]

Sorry, I've recently been hit by a serious case of disinterest.  I promise that I will be back tomorrow and contribute more.

Promises are scummy.

Vote: nkirbit

[Voltaire]

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

This is one I did later in D1 than yours. D1 ended at 686.

Post counts, no pre-game, through 545:

yuma - 62
Voltaire - 54
ashersky - 42
mail-mi - 42
UmbrageOfSnow - 34
Voltgloss - 32
nkirbit - 30
Robz888 - 29
Jorbles - 29
shraeye - 26
liopoil - 12
Eevee - 7

D2 post counts:

yuma - 17
Voltaire - 7
mail-mi - 2
nkirbit - 4
Robz888 - 27
Jorbles - 4
shraeye - 2
liopoil - 10
Eevee - 0

mail-mi only posted after I called him out. Eevee is semi-V/LA I think from another thread. Shraeye has also promised a re-read but not yet delivered.

[Jorbles]

Eevee continues to lurk hard and mail-mi has gone silent. Like the entire town. This is not how we win.

Let's look at the wagon and see if we can get any blood out of the "turnip".

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's three scum in here somewhere, and one of them is happy with any lynch at all. I think there's a darn good chance there's at least two scum on Volt's wagon. In fact, there pretty much has to be unless both yuma and lio are scum unless the vig shot ash the scum. Removing ash, that leaves:

shraeye, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi

I'd go vote: mail-mi > Eevee > nkirbit > Jorbles > shraeye > Robz from scum to town. The vote is

I cannot decide what to make of yuma and lio being off-wagon. lio rarely votes and I find that scummy, but it is consistent with his meta. I have no idea how to catch scum yuma anymore, not that I ever did. I do not like his D2 one bit, I can say that much.

Do you think all the scum were on the wagon because if you think even one of them was off wagon it makes as much sense to go offwagon? From your perspective it makes more sense to go offwagon. (eliminating yourself you get 50% chance of scum offwagon if you think there's one scum there vs 33% chance of scum on wagon if there's 2 scum there) I see yuma is making a case on me, which I will address when I've caught up on my reads. I have an excuse for lurking the last few days which you may or may not believe because it involves RL stuff, but I'll come to that in the next post.

[Voltaire]

Do you think all the scum were on the wagon because if you think even one of them was off wagon it makes as much sense to go offwagon? From your perspective it makes more sense to go offwagon. (eliminating yourself you get 50% chance of scum offwagon if you think there's one scum there vs 33% chance of scum on wagon if there's 2 scum there)

You make a very good point, and it's one I thought while I was making that post but couldn't come to any conclusion so I didn't mention it at the time. Lynching one of lio or yuma is complicated because I don't know what to do with yuma and because lio hasn't done much...which actually was made all the more clear by the D2 post count compared to D1. Lio does fit the barely-not lurking profile pretty well. So maybe off-wagon is the better place to look. There are multiple people I would be comfortable lynching at this point and I am mostly waiting to see what our lurkers have to say.

[Voltaire]

Lynching one of lio or yuma is complicated because I don't know what to do with yuma and because lio hasn't done much...

To say this a bit clearer, if I decide I don't want to lynch yuma, I think it's dumb to POE lio instantly because of that. It's only D2.

[Jorbles]

Okay so first off I was super lurky all weekend (and partially on Monday I did post elsewhere, but it's easier to catch up elsewhere and those games often can't go on without my participation so I prioritize them) because I've been laid up in bed with a stomach bug and a fever. That's my excuse, I'm feeling mostly better now, though I am on a gross bland diet.

Jorbles:

I made this post about him in regard to UoS's accusation that he manufactured a case against him:

and ultimately I said about it that: "His build up in coming to a UoS vote was also somewhat scummy. Scum often doesn't want to just have a random read pop up, because then when people go back to reread them they will be suspicious and be like, "what!?! where did that read come from? Suspicious?" They want to avoid that, so to get around it I have often seen scum kinda breadcrumb their potential reads and slowly build them up along the way. Town sometimes does this as well, but it is a more natural progression I think. And before I realized Jorbles reads list was in response to Volt I felt pretty sure that this was on the scummy side... now I am a little less sure that I have all the info."

So kinda scummy, but nothing super solid...

I was deliberately telegraphing to other players that I found UoS suspicious. UoS kept doing things that made me suspicious so I kept doing it. I italicized the point you made that is key to me in the quote above.

One thing I guess I noticed for the first time was this:

I don't really have strong enough reads to vote for anyone at this point so I'm going to vote for... Robz.

Vote: Robz

Happy Birthday Robz! You look the same as the day I met you! (You still look like the spitting image of Link)

This is one of the latest RVS (Robz or random) votes I have ever seen. Way past the RVS--not that we really even had one--and immediately after a couple of votes that Jorbles doesn't comment on.  But what really gets me is that in lieu of posting reads he RVS's. Scummy! Even if he doesn't have reads (he did comment on a vote on me by eevee I should mention) he can comment on other people's reads. (and again he does start posting more thoughts on other people's reads in the post after this one) I am not sure how I didn't notice this day1--I blame work or a pregnant wife--but if I had I think it would have elicited an immediate vote at that stage in the game.

I had no further things to add to the conversation, nowhere important I felt my vote should be and I wanted to wish Robz a happy birthday. What can I say?

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Ooo, I already have a spreadsheet for this. I didn't want to give stuff away until I'd observed a little bit more as they're not that concrete yet.
1. UmbrageOfSnow: I completely agree with shraeye that he's been putting things out there as being suspicious hoping someone else will find it suspicious. I think this is the sort of kindof guiding the conversation that a first time scum player would do (which is why I was asking if he'd played scum before).
2. liopoil: he's been on, but I can't really remember anything he's said which is unusual. Usually I remember what he says quite clearly because it's quite out there. This noticeable difference from the norm reads scummy to me.
3. I dunno I don't really have anything strong or weak at this point for a third read. I don't love any of the other cases out there currently though.

I think it was Robz that pointed out that this was a town-tell. I kinda agree. The lack of a third read in response to a question from a player who I think at that point was the "most townie" isn't something I think mafia would do.

However that post is mitigated by this one at the start of day2. If you want something that is fabricated in a scum QT robz, this is the sort of thing you should be looking for:

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

Immediately right out of the gates pushing for me because was unconvinced by a crappy scumslip case? This looks a lot like lio's B2B case on spiritbears right out of the gates.

I for one am not embarassed to have voted for that scumslip case and I still think that fact that you seemed so immediately against it was scummy. Clearly we disagree here. I'm interested in what others think of yuma and liopoil's positions on the Voltgloss slip though. Others, when you read this can you chime in?

[yuma]

Do you think all the scum were on the wagon because if you think even one of them was off wagon it makes as much sense to go offwagon? From your perspective it makes more sense to go offwagon. (eliminating yourself you get 50% chance of scum offwagon if you think there's one scum there vs 33% chance of scum on wagon if there's 2 scum there)

You make a very good point, and it's one I thought while I was making that post but couldn't come to any conclusion so I didn't mention it at the time. Lynching one of lio or yuma is complicated because I don't know what to do with yuma and because lio hasn't done much...which actually was made all the more clear by the D2 post count compared to D1. Lio does fit the barely-not lurking profile pretty well. So maybe off-wagon is the better place to look. There are multiple people I would be comfortable lynching at this point and I am mostly waiting to see what our lurkers have to say.

I strongly disagree that this is a very good point. I don't know much about liopoil's alignment. He is up next on my reread list along with nkirbit. But this isn't your normal wagon analysis situation. Not at all. Why? Because everyone basically abdicated their responsibility for the lynch by following a dumb "slip." It is exactly what I warned about before Voltgloss's lynch. Do I think all of mafia is on the lynch wagon? Possibly. I see no reason to think one or the other is more likely. Why? Because in this situation mafia had to take no responsibility for the lynch. they just had to say "it was a slip, vote!" and be done with it. Mafia would do what they would do as town, either way on/off and really isn't useful I think for helping to find mafia.

So if you don't want to lynch me, you are right, it is dumb to just PoE liopoil, but it was dumb in the first place to PoE both me and lio to begin with. The fact that Jorbles is trying to manipulate the end of day wagon to get information out of it makes me more suspicious of him, because I don't think there is anything to get.

[yuma]

I was deliberately telegraphing to other players that I found UoS suspicious. UoS kept doing things that made me suspicious so I kept doing it. I italicized the point you made that is key to me in the quote above.

I agree, hence why it is only mildly suspicious. And you don't need to italicize things I have said. I know I said them. I said them for a reason.

I had no further things to add to the conversation, nowhere important I felt my vote should be and I wanted to wish Robz a happy birthday. What can I say?

Maybe why you couldn't just say happy birthday w/o a RVS vote. Really, it just looked like something mafia would do. A late RVS because they can't think of anything else to say, but know they need to say something

I for one am not embarassed to have voted for that scumslip case and I still think that fact that you seemed so immediately against it was scummy. Clearly we disagree here. I'm interested in what others think of yuma and liopoil's positions on the Voltgloss slip though. Others, when you read this can you chime in?

Well you should be embarrassed. It was a bad case (the scumslip part, the rest was an okay case, I disagreed with its conclusion, but it was an ok day1 case). Did anyone even look at the case beyond the scumslip? That might actually be something worth looking at. Who actually analyzed the whole content of the case and talked about it? Because it looked like most everyone was like, "Ooooo! something shiny!" lost all control of independent thought and voted for someone that up to that point nearly everyone thought was extremely pro-town and likely to be town.

[yuma]

quote fail:

I was deliberately telegraphing to other players that I found UoS suspicious. UoS kept doing things that made me suspicious so I kept doing it. I italicized the point you made that is key to me in the quote above.

I agree, hence why it is only mildly suspicious. And you don't need to italicize things I have said. I know I said them. I said them for a reason.

I had no further things to add to the conversation, nowhere important I felt my vote should be and I wanted to wish Robz a happy birthday. What can I say?

Maybe why you couldn't just say happy birthday w/o a RVS vote. Really, it just looked like something mafia would do. A late RVS because they can't think of anything else to say, but know they need to say something

I for one am not embarassed to have voted for that scumslip case and I still think that fact that you seemed so immediately against it was scummy. Clearly we disagree here. I'm interested in what others think of yuma and liopoil's positions on the Voltgloss slip though. Others, when you read this can you chime in?

Well you should be embarrassed. It was a bad case (the scumslip part, the rest was an okay case, I disagreed with its conclusion, but it was an ok day1 case). Did anyone even look at the case beyond the scumslip? That might actually be something worth looking at. Who actually analyzed the whole content of the case and talked about it? Because it looked like most everyone was like, "Ooooo! something shiny!" lost all control of independent thought and voted for someone that up to that point nearly everyone thought was extremely pro-town and likely to be town.

[Voltaire]

But this isn't your normal wagon analysis situation. Not at all. Why? Because everyone basically abdicated their responsibility for the lynch by following a dumb "slip." It is exactly what I warned about before Voltgloss's lynch. Do I think all of mafia is on the lynch wagon? Possibly. I see no reason to think one or the other is more likely. Why? Because in this situation mafia had to take no responsibility for the lynch. they just had to say "it was a slip, vote!" and be done with it. Mafia would do what they would do as town, either way on/off and really isn't useful I think for helping to find mafia.

I completely disagree with your stance that the wagon is useless. Mafia had to decide if they wanted to take the "easy" mislynch as they saw it happening. I think that they would. They have daychat and got to decide what to do. I think the SK is more likely to be on any wagon but obviously he can't be too obvious so this is the least certain of my thinkings.

[Jorbles]

Oops... hit post before I was completely done. But I guess there wasn't anything else to add except that  interestingly Jorbles has said that he was going to be looking at:

1) People's positions on Voltgloss.
2) Voltgloss's reads.

I'm too busy right now, but I'll be looking at both these things this weekend.

But hasn't as he hasn't posted since that post on Friday.

Okay so first off I was super lurky all weekend (and partially on Monday I did post elsewhere, but it's easier to catch up elsewhere and those games often can't go on without my participation so I prioritize them) because I've been laid up in bed with a stomach bug and a fever. That's my excuse, I'm feeling mostly better now, though I am on a gross bland diet.

That's why I didn't do it. I still intend to.

quote fail:

I was deliberately telegraphing to other players that I found UoS suspicious. UoS kept doing things that made me suspicious so I kept doing it. I italicized the point you made that is key to me in the quote above.

I agree, hence why it is only mildly suspicious. And you don't need to italicize things I have said. I know I said them. I said them for a reason.

The italics are not just for you, but also for other people (who are occasionally to lazy to reread a whole quote).

I had no further things to add to the conversation, nowhere important I felt my vote should be and I wanted to wish Robz a happy birthday. What can I say?

Maybe why you couldn't just say happy birthday w/o a RVS vote. Really, it just looked like something mafia would do. A late RVS because they can't think of anything else to say, but know they need to say something

This is the sort of funsucking attitude I hate about mafia. Sometimes a joke is just a joke is just a joke. Why couldn't I say happy birthday w/o a RVS vote? Because I didn't care if I made an RVS vote. I didn't think it would derail the conversation, and look it didn't (well until now a day later).

I for one am not embarassed to have voted for that scumslip case and I still think that fact that you seemed so immediately against it was scummy. Clearly we disagree here. I'm interested in what others think of yuma and liopoil's positions on the Voltgloss slip though. Others, when you read this can you chime in?

Well you should be embarrassed. It was a bad case (the scumslip part, the rest was an okay case, I disagreed with its conclusion, but it was an ok day1 case). Did anyone even look at the case beyond the scumslip? That might actually be something worth looking at. Who actually analyzed the whole content of the case and talked about it? Because it looked like most everyone was like, "Ooooo! something shiny!" lost all control of independent thought and voted for someone that up to that point nearly everyone thought was extremely pro-town and likely to be town.

I voted for voltgloss primarily because of the slip, but I did read the case and thought it wasn't a bad one, but also I voted for Voltgloss because I couldn't have trusted him after that. That slip would have overshadowed everything he said, and I know he's convincing enough to appear very towny to me when he's actually not. I can't remember what game it was, but I've read some early games when I was sure he was town and he wasn't.

Okay I've gotta go catch a bus, I will do those voltgloss rereads later.

[Eevee]

Sorry, I've been putting this game off, apologies. I'll reread and make a bigger post tonight, attempting to not fall behind like this again.

[Voltaire]

Sometimes I have something to say. Sometimes I don't.

I certainly hope you have something to say today (D2).

[yuma]

Well let's look at everyone's initial reaction to shraeye saying there was a slip. I think we will notice a trend.

shraye made the case (1) it was on voltgloss (2)

Robz (3)

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Oh. Woah.

Voltaire (4)

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

This...this might be the first scumslip I could support.

ashersky (5)

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

liopoil (6)

<i>might</i>

august 8th, 10pm

<i>on Day 1</i>

august 10th

voltgloss has not posted in that QT since august 8th, 7 am.

Nkirbit (7)

Yeah, that is significant.  I'll vote volt once we have a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering or something dumb

Eevee ( 8 )

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

mail-mi (9)

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

Jorbles (10)

Whoa, that's pretty incriminating, has Voltgloss ever done that in another game? I haven't seen him do that.

chairs (11)
didn't react, but didn't really need to.


But my point is can you separate the reactions from the people above? Everyone--including lio for a time--had the same reaction of "Woah! That is ___some word (incrimination, big, significant, huge! OMFG!!!). Vote or intent to vote." There isn't a way that I can see to separate them out to mafia/not mafia. Because everyone reacted the same way. Really the only one that is different above is lio's who went straight into analytical mode trying to see if volt's explanation made sense or not (which is what I did as well...), but ultimately fell into the "this is big, vote:" until he changed his mind. So nearly everyone had the exact same reaction.

except for me...

yuma (12)

So I guess I am the only person who doesn't find voltgloss scummy for this? When I read shraeye's post explaining the italics thing my mind immediately jumped to this QT that volt is talking about. It is a very simple and easy mistake to make, switching up the tags. People do the opposite all the time in the QTs... I know for a fact that chairs (yes, he isn't in this game, but as an example) just barely did so in the speccy for CLUE... especially in the context of voltgloss using that thread a lot--not necessarily as of late, as some have mentioned, but recently enough that it is probably the place where he most recently used tags.

Could this be voltgloss as mafia. Maybe. But this, like so many other slips before it I think this is going to result in probably a townie lynch and very little to go off come day2.

So I guess you could say that the only real use is that it separates me--and then to an extent lio later after he changed his mind--and so that is useful. But ultimately I already know I am town, so it is useless to me and honestly it doesn't tell me much about lio. He had the same reaction I did to volt's explanation--well I had though of volt's explanation before he had given it--and had posted it before I ever came online, so I don't find him scummy for coming to the same conclusion. So you might find it useful, but if you found it useful it really only could be in the context of me. So maybe there is utility if you find me townie for it--cause then you would get a correct read--but if you found me scummy. Well then it is worse than useless.

[Robz888]

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

This is one I did later in D1 than yours. D1 ended at 686.

Post counts, no pre-game, through 545:

yuma - 62
Voltaire - 54
ashersky - 42
mail-mi - 42
UmbrageOfSnow - 34
Voltgloss - 32
nkirbit - 30
Robz888 - 29
Jorbles - 29
shraeye - 26
liopoil - 12
Eevee - 7

D2 post counts:

yuma - 17
Voltaire - 7
mail-mi - 2
nkirbit - 4
Robz888 - 27
Jorbles - 4
shraeye - 2
liopoil - 10
Eevee - 0

mail-mi only posted after I called him out. Eevee is semi-V/LA I think from another thread. Shraeye has also promised a re-read but not yet delivered.

Alright, this is ridiculous. Lynch all lurkers time. Pick a lurker. Who has the least good excuse?

[Robz888]

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

[Robz888]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

[yuma]

Ok: nkirbit and liopoil time:

nkirbit was pretty focused on ash through the early part of day1. Initially for pushing his claiming plan so hard. Despite voting first, he almost sheeps Robz's vote (as well as mine to an extent) retroactively in how he is trying to explain it.

He then moved to UoS and was I think ultimately the catalyst for the PR claim. Doesn't make him scummy though to be voting for a PR... others were as well I think?

He also has pretty similar reactions as I do to ash in general and to ash's extended absence.

and then the voltgloss slip happened.

So I guess the question here is do I find someone who is somewhat mirroring me (not necessarily copying or sheeping me, because I think both of us took the lead at times in terms of pressing the ashersky wagon)? And the answer is that yes, I do. I have found scum here in the past. Captain_Frisk and myself (that was more of a lesson learned as I had a town read on him for so long for having similar reads) and then in B2B with nkirbit and liopoil for both pressing the mail-mi "easy" lynch wagon. I'll take a better look at this after I read liopoil to see if the mirroring is actually as prevalent.


Lio:

So lio started off on VLA so need to take that into consideration:

But I think the most noticeable point about liopoil is his complete lack of stances during day1 up until the voltgloss "slip." Like I said, VLA takes part of the blame for this, he only had 14 posts before the slip.

His first vote was on Voltgloss. I think this indicates more town lio than scummy lio. Take a look at lio in Mean Girls where he didn't vote much at all and compare to B2B lio where he was voting early and often (and I think the other games he has played in reflect that as well).

So really lio is mostly a null read because of his VLA, but I do expect his contributions to be ramped up day2... they haven't been thus far however (he has had more posts than the average player, but everyone isn't posting much at this juncture) so this null read certainly is leaning toward scum just based off the worry that he was using his VLA to coast and hasn't felt the need to post more after that... (I know he has taken this stance before)

[Voltaire]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

[Voltaire]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

Actually, flip nkirbit from effort to lurking.

[Robz888]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

Actually, flip nkirbit from effort to lurking.

I was gonna say--I think nkirbit's lurking.

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

[Voltaire]

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

[yuma]

So mirror or no mirror? Not the following are just quotes for my reference, the next post will actually be talking about them for readability...

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Still happy to be voting Ashersky.  Maybe I haven't explained it the best, but I just do feel like his actions haven't been that of a town member.

I think nkirbit's getting at the way Ash was pushing it and pushing for it to happen NOW (as with the claiming Amy Pond), rather than the proposal of the plan itself.  I could see that being scummy, in isolation, but I could also see it being Ash excited about a plan.

What do you old timers think?

This is scummy enough that I'm going to vote UoS for it.  I wasn't getting at that.  I think it's pretty scummy to say, "Nkirbit thinks Ashersky is scummy for that reason!" when really, you're the one that finds him scummy for that.

My feelings for Ashersky weren't well articulated at all, and I completely understand why people, such as Shraeye, were suspicious of me for having them.  Basically, I just have a gut feeling that Asherksy's plan is coming from scum here, and I still do have the feeling, but don't have any real evidence to back it up at this point so I'll drop it.  But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

I do not like these ash votes at all. nkirbit, you're voting because ash presented his case over several rapid-fire posts that make it "feel" different, right? Robz, you're voting ash because he claimed. That I guess I can understand. But then nkirbit sheeps Robz's reasons, which are different! And yuma is voting ash because...ash got snippy with him? But later clarifies it's because he thinks ash is mafia. Can you clarify why, yuma?

My yuma!bells are going off right now. Yuma has admitted to goading ash into claiming, and then engages in a theory chat with ash ending with a vote for him after ash got snippy. yuma!bells have yet to be right, but this seems like intentional baiting to me.

I never said I voted ash because he was snippy, but I guess you could see that as the reasons, as yes I didn't provide one. I was posting amist a babyshower--not sure how I got wrangled into that--so wasn't able to provide my whole rationale.

For me right now, I see ash as trying too hard to be his {warning: using words that might sound critical, but they are not intended to be because I have accepted the way ash plays and don't expect nor do I want him to change} abrasive and aggressive and defensive and plan supporting meta that he has created over the course of many games.

I feel that I saw this same thing in Mean Girls when I was partners with him:

There are a number of examples here:

- this is my weakest point, because I still think that if ash is town he claimed as a reaction to me. Again, not my fault, but I could see ash doing it. But I can also see ash doing it to make people think that only town could do something as crazy as claim in the first minutes of the game...
- suggesting the day1 random lynch... again only town would be crazy enough to suggest this...
- his vote on robz I felt was forced and reminded me of his vote on spiritbears early in Mean Girls.
- his post suggesting that I am coming to my partner's (Robz's) aid, is exactly the sort of post that ash put forward when he is scum I think. Tries to force the issue through.
- this post, "I'd love to actually be a D1 lynch, instead of just constantly misread." w/o a self vote. Ash hates it when people bring up that he hasn't self voted in this game, and understandably. But keep in mind, in Mean Girls, he didn't self vote.
- and then his last post saying he won't post every 48 hours. In Mean Girls he did something similar--except there it was even more over the top. He faked being extremely mad at mcmc to the point that he threatened to /out of the game. Afterward (and I knew at the time it was fake because he had more or less planned it) he said it was all an act. Ash uses fake emotion to gain a foot up on town. I think this might be another example.

Those are all of the things I had noticed from ash that makes me think he is more likely scum faking his meta than town being true to his meta.

Nothing to say, except yuma captures my thoughts on ash perfectly. Remember, ash is always up to do a crazy plan, regardless of whether he is town or scum. I think his crazy plan here might have been trying to get away with a VT claim as scum. Remember, there is extra benefit to that, here! Because you don't get shot by SKs that way.

Vote: Ashersky

Still find him the scummiest.

He's around, just not posting in this thread.  And I do think that's very anti-town, and another reason for me to keep my vote on him.  I know Ash sometimes does weird stuff, but deliberately avoiding a thread to make a point?  That's anti-town enough that I'm not sure town wants to do it.

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

making us think that "no way would scum ash be that crazy" and establishing that as his eccentric meta.

I assume he knows that it won't work on me, so I dont' think he is trying to convince me, but from all appearances it is working on a lot of other players. I think if this was anyone but ash, there would be 1-2 more votes on him at this point.

Yes, I expect him to come back at some point with the, "Cmon guys!  I wouldn't be that obvious as scum!" argument.  And you know, he could be correct, but I think there's a larger chance that he's scum than anyone else in the game, so I'm happy to vote there.

I still have the same bad feeling I had about his plan initially, and no one else has jumped out at me as a good lynch.

I agree, liopoil.  I can see crazy!town!ash avoiding the thread with the same likelihood of crazy!scum!ash avoiding the thread.  I can think of at least one goal ash may be trying to achieve with this gambit, assuming it is a gambit and assuming he is town.  So at this point, that behavior of ash's is a nulltell for me. 

Keep in mind--and this is something that I haven't pushed enough, but should have--that I, at least, am not voting ash because he hasn't posted. It has encouraged me to continue to vote for him. But it isn't the reason. I was voting for him before because I believed many of his posts were written with the intent to mimic his persona. I can reference the post for you if you would like that I compiled them, but really just reread him for yourself. He has many suggestions, ideas and reactions that from my perspective--and this is coming from someone who has been scum partners with him--that I believe are forced and unauthentic. That is why I am voting for him. I think the not posting is just taking that concept to another level so I continue my vote.

[yuma]

So I do think that nkirbit has been mirroring both robz and I. Note again that this is different from sheeping. To me mirroring is when you have a read as scum (whether sheeped or not) that you maintain throughout the game because other people have had it as well. Basically as scum you feel comfortable keeping a read or an opinion because there is the idea of safety in numbers. C_Frisk did it with me in MVIII and lio I think did it with nkribit in B2B.

But what really jumps out to me here is that nkribit does it with not just me, but with robz and me.

It is important to note that he had the first vote on ashersky. So it certainly hasn't been a sheep situation for him (but I think he knows better than to sheep as scum).

Instead he continues and slightly borrows from Robz:

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

And as well from me:

Robz, yuma, nkirbit, mail-mi:  Assuming ash is scum like you suspect, what do you think he is trying to achieve by deliberately avoiding the thread?

making us think that "no way would scum ash be that crazy" and establishing that as his eccentric meta.

I assume he knows that it won't work on me, so I dont' think he is trying to convince me, but from all appearances it is working on a lot of other players. I think if this was anyone but ash, there would be 1-2 more votes on him at this point.

followed by:

Yes, I expect him to come back at some point with the, "Cmon guys!  I wouldn't be that obvious as scum!" argument.  And you know, he could be correct, but I think there's a larger chance that he's scum than anyone else in the game, so I'm happy to vote there.

I still have the same bad feeling I had about his plan initially, and no one else has jumped out at me as a good lynch.

combine this with what I actually think to be a pretty good case on him by Voltaire late day1:

I really don't like the massclaim here, and think pushing for it early day1 is scummy.

Vote: Ashersky

I also dislike his reaction to Yuma saying he didn't like the claim and probably wouldn't participate in it.  Instead of accepting that another player, who is likely town, thinks it's a bad idea, he continued to push it with saying that it was no problem, and they'd get Yuma's claim by process of elimination.

I just read Ash as pushing a plan as opposed to actually trying to figure out if the plan is good for town or not, and it's making me uncomfortable.

In the recent Blitz game when he was town, Ash proposed his plan, and immediately justified his reasoning.  He started by trying to convince everyone that his plan was pro-town, because he wanted it to happen.

Here, his plan was proposed very differently.  He didn't start with justification, that came later.  In fact, he started posts with language such as, "Further to this", indicating he was still thinking through his plan even after he proposed it.  Which would be fine, if it wasn't completely different from what I have seen from town!Ash before.

Given that he had reasons, why didn't he just dump them all initially, get us to mass-claim if it's really what was best for town, then get on with it?  This isn't what happened.  He's justified it bit by bit.

I just think if Ash were town and really thought mass-claiming were good, he would have made a concise, initial post explaining exactly why it was good rather than leave his reasoning scattered over several pages.  You know, to make sure we actually mass claim, because he think it's pro-town.

He didn't do this, so it makes me think that either Ash isn't town, or he actually doesn't think that massclaiming is good.  I don't think it's the second, since massclaiming isn't obviously bad like past plans have been.  So I lean towards the first.

Yo! Just skim caught up. Didn't pay enough attention to people's statements (which is bad) but I did follow the pros and cons of the claiming thing. I sort of like VG's plan to claim Pr/non-Pr. But, well, we probably don't want to claim at all, because really town actually does end up winning mulitball variants fairly often, and they win because scum shoots each other. Any role revealing reduces the chances of scum shooting each other, which is very bad for town.

Vote: ashersky

I think ash-with-a-plan is usually town ash. However, I don't like the way he just claimed right off the bat here. For one thing, I do think it's anti-town if we massclai, and it's certainly anti-town if just he claims. So. Also, it's something I can see ash doing as scum to sort of get out of the way. Now he's already claimed, and I bet he thought that maybe we would start to just take the claim at face value and think of him as town. So, I'm voting him for now.

This is a better written version of my feelings about Ash.  I just am uneasy about Ash here.. his plans usually feel towny to me, and this one just doesn't.

nkirbit is voting for ash for taking a few posts to explain his plan and not making it obvious that the plan was pro-town, which I disagree with. nkirbit can only justify this with "feel" and "gut", and then he sheep's Robz's totally different reasons for voting for ash.

Then, this happens:

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just flat-out incorrect, as pointed out by UoS himself, and another sheep. Take it all together, and vote: nkirbit.

and his lurking today I am comfortable with a vote: nkirbit

[Jorbles]

Voltgloss's opinions on and major interactions with others:

Voltgloss says nkirbit's reactions to ash's plan is probably the scummiest. He doesn't hate ash's plans and likes yumas reaction to the plan, which he basically agrees with. He places a vote on nkirbit here.

Robz, you out there?

He calls out Robz for lurking.

Unvote

Reasonable response.

Those who have played with mail-mi, question:  his behavior so far here - how does it compare to previous games?

He finds nkirbit's explanation of his actions reasonable and unvotes. He asks if mail-mi normally acts like he has in this game.

Having read up to #255, yuma v. Voltaire feels more like town v. town than anything else.  nkirbit's response is, again, reasonable.  But I don't agree with the reasons for his vote on ash.  I agree with UoS's #255 that ash is playing like ash tends to play, whether town or scum.  His pushing massclaim as a plan is a nulltell. 

To answer shraeye's question:  I was somehwat surprised by mail-mi's blatant sheeping and sort of, ah, "flippant" tone in the game?  I guess that's the best word?  Not having played a game with him before I didn't know whether this was a departure from his usual practice.  Apparently it's not.

He is of the opinion that yuma and Voltaire are both town, and reasserts that he thinks nkirbit is being reasonable though disagrees with his reasoning. He feels null about ash. He says that he found mail-mi suspicious for sheeping, but on finding this normal declares it null.

I have further thoughts on the massclaim theory front but I agree with UoS and yuma that it's no longer fruitful to pursue.  It's clear we're not doing it, and we have how everyone reacted to it, and that's the most important thing (I think) from a scumhunting perspective.

ash and yuma:  Don't make me turn this car around.

mail-mi and Jorbles:  Top 3 scumreads from you, please.  Go.

Vote: Eevee.  Give us some substance, fuzzy.

He votes Eevee for his lurking. He asks me and mail-mi for reads. He asks yuma and ash to stop bickering.

He comments that UoS is probably town after his drunk posting.

He asks everyone for reads.

I'm around.  I've been rereading and mulling all weekend and will be posting my thoughts this evening.  ash is one of those I'm thinking hardest about.

In the meantime, for those of you who are around (yuma, Robz, others?), I have a question I'd ask you chew on while I'm pulling together my lanalysis:  what are your thoughts on liopoil?

He states that he's been thinking a lot about ash and asks everyone for their thoughts on liopoil. He later says that he had not noticed that liopoil was VLA, but that something else was bothering him about liopoil.

Will not lynch today:
- UmbrageOfSnow (barring counterclaims)
- yuma
- Robz888

Could lynch today:
- Eevee
- Jorbles
- Voltaire
- shraeye

Prefer to lynch today:
- ashersky
- nkirbit
- mail-mi
- liopoil

...

Volt's reads. Probably some of the most important info from Volt yesterday.  One of his preferred lynches was NKed. He said that I should be considered as mail-mi's partner if mail-mi flips scum. Note by the end of the day he was definitely willing to lynch Robz, so this list was probably out of date by the time of lynch.

I just reread with an objective eye what I was about to post on liopoil, with a vote on liopoil, and decided it wasn't as compelling as I thought it was.  I also think it's not the right time to raise the observation that I found potentially concerning.  Let liopoil finish his V/LA (which ends today, I think?) and have an opportunity to come to us with susbtance first.

Instead, vote: nkirbit.  mail-mi is the obvious active lurker lynch (and as I said before, not a bad lynch choice).  ash is also an obvious active lurker lynch at this juncture, unless/until he gives us scumhunting substance and addresses the cases against him.  But nkirbit is also actively lurking, but in a more subtle way by focusing on only a couple of players.  That's what concerns me most.

Voltgloss decides not to mention what he found suspicious about liopoil. This may have gone with him after he was lynched. He finds nkirbit most suspicious for focussing on only a few players. Though he find mail-mi suspicious for actilurking.

He states that he doesn't think yuma is necessarily scum or town at this point.

At this point shraeye posts his case on Voltgloss, which changes the tone considerably. He doesn't mention the slips at this point.

Here's Volt's response. He defends himself, but says he doesn't find shraeye scummy for making the case chalking it up to differences in playstyles.

Voltgloss posts his tidbit on liopoil which is that he was possibly breadcrumbing Vig to set himself up for a fake claim. He doesn't seem to think it's a big thing, which is why he hadn't made a big enough deal of it to post it.

After this he rightfully hammers ash for his VT claim for a bit. shraeye votes for him right after this, and shortly after follows up pointing out the "slips".

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Volt posts an explanation, but shraeye points out time discrepancies with the explanation.

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

Volt's last big post, pointing out a case on Robz, and stating that he thinks ash, yuma and shraeye are towny. Robz argues with him about it, and Voltgloss thinks he struck a nerve.

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

So this obvious lie of a defense doesn't register to you?

How are those slips...?

He's using the wrong tags.  He's using QT-speak, and I suspect it's because he was switching between his scumQT and this thread.

Hah!  Clever.  Wrong, but clever.

Any messed-up tags are because I was alternating between posting here and posting in this.  Link is safe and non-spoilery.

Nope,, your first slip in this thread is more than 15 hours after your latest post in that QT.  Your second slip here is more than 2 days after any of your posting in that QT.  You were not alternating.

Now this is much more interesting. Because it isn't a slip, it is a contradiction. But is it really a contradiction? I mean I can kinda see what he is trying to say. That he has been alternating posting "here" as in the f.ds forum in general and the QT he is working on.

But I guess what now worries me is that he hasn't come out and said that himself...

That is, indeed, what I was trying to get across.  But I don't expect it to be believed.  See, I know if positions were reversed that I wouldn't believe it.  Hence my resignation to being lynched.  Really, my mislynch now is just a matter of "when," not "if.". And better it be today, when our chance of mislynch is highest anyway.

I am VT, by the way.  So no worries about the town mislynching a PR today either.

It is what is.  My lynch hurts town but I have only myself to blame.  Sorry town.  I am rusty and sloppy, and will try to do better next time.

We absolutely should wait for UoS though.

Also, when I am dead and flip town, be sure to scrutinize - not only Robz - but also liopoil.  Jumping on my wagon excitedly and almost immediately jumping off (when he sees he isn't "needed") is what I would expect overeager Mafia to do here.

Here Volt points out that he thinks liopoil is acting how an overeager mafia player might act on his wagon.

TL;DR
Volt was suspicious of Robz and liopoil at the end of the day. He had town reads on yuma, shraeye, and ash. Throughout the day he was also suspicious of nkirbit, mail-mi, and to a lesser degree you could say Eevee (for lurking).

PPE 11 posts:
This took me all day to put together so I'm going to take a little break before I respond to those other posts, but I do think it's worth revisiting Volt's suspicions, which regardless of what we're discussing now I plan to do at some point.

[shraeye]

I'm looking at people reacting to Voltgloss:

My case on Voltgloss came at #555 (link here)

At this point people had said this about Voltgloss
Voltaire:

Voltgloss - Perfects the plan. Methodical scumhunting. The most obvious pro-town player, I'd say.

Jorbles:

Voltgloss has been leading town, which I think mafia might do, but not SK (I don't think Volt is mafia here, I've seen him do this in the past as town).

Ashersky:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

Eevee:

Voltgloss: The strongest nonclaimed town read (but I have a bias, his playstyle always reads towny to me). A lot of his posts I think hit the nail to the head, really good observation and analysis in my opinion.

Yuma had also put Voltgloss in a not-lynchign category because he had no suspicion of Voltgloss, and thinks he could read better on future days.
Mail-mi had put Voltgloss in his not-lynching category, but didn’t give explanation why.

So pretty much everybody had Voltgloss as a townread, except for ashersky who said Voltgloss was likely SK.

When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Liopoil also caught that Voltgloss’s explanation didn’t make sense time-wise

Town points, he’s following up on this slip.  Lio further pushes (in #578) Voltgloss because the AtE defense that Volt gives

Ashersky offhandedly votes, giving no specific indication of reason, though likely this is a slip-vote.

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

Scumpoints for the offhanded vote, while focusing on defending himself from Voltaire

Nkirbit also slip-votes, but wants to hold off in case he’s hammering

Yeah, that is significant.  I'll vote volt once we have a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering or something dumb

I don’t see what the point of wanting to make sure he isn’t hammering is.  At this point, it is very clear to many people that Voltgloss is the lynch for the day.  Voltgloss had even resigned himself to it at this juncture.  I’m giving nkirbit double scumpoints for this.

Eevee votes for Voltgloss, congratulating me, but continues to scumhunt.

Vote: Voltgloss I think we do need to lynch him (great thinking by shraeye there, regardless of your alignment I'm impressed), but Robz is setting alarm bells of for me big time.

Minor townpoints awarded.

Liopoil questions the slip, unvoting.  This also gives townpoints.  If he’s scum, he could easily just leave his vote there and he has, as Yuma says, a ready-made excuse for it.

Mailmi reacts exactly as nkirbit did

Wow. Just, wow. Shraeye caught something good. What is VG at? I don't wanna derphammer him.

I give mail-mi 1.8x scumpoints for this.  Not as many as nkiribt, who was worried about being the hammer back when the slip was posted…mailmi’s vote would come after 50 or so posts, so there is more confusion about where Voltgloss is at.  But still, I don’t see the point in worrying about hammering.  If you really think that this slip caught scum, why wouldn’t you hammer?  The only answer I can think of is that you are worried about how it will look.  And I don’t know townmail-mi to be that concerned about how he looks, which often gets him mislynched.  Actually, after realizing that mail-mi doesn't care how scummy he looks very very often, I'm going to upgrade this to 2.5x scumpoints.


Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.

Jorbles comes in and also agrees with Robz that Volt has acted like caught mafia. No points either way, this statement had already been made, and agreeing to it is different from bringing it up.

Nkirbit gets around to voting Voltgloss, and does it somewhat hedgingly

I haven't got much of a read off of Voltglosses' reactions.  I think either scum or town could react the way he did.

Still, I do think that Voltgloss is much more likely than anyone else to flip scum at this point.  I can see him getting confused were he jumping back and forth between this game and a mafia QT.

I also think that Ash has been towny since coming back, so

Vote: Voltgloss

This puts him to 5.  L-2, I believe.

Small scumpoints on this one, seems very uncommitted to Voltgloss being scum, doesn’t find Volt’s reactions particularly scummy.  This is a pure slip-vote.

Mailmi calls Voltgloss the “best lynch of today”. Small scumpoints, this is weird wording.

Voltaire’s reaction to Voltgloss

I can't comment on Volt in previous games, but I agree his reactions post-shraeye post have been scummy. "Meh, oh well!" and going gracefully into the night - I think that's scum WIFOM of "wait scum would fight this harder". yuma points out that apparently Volt has done this in the past but that's awhile ago and I'm not comfortable making such a big decision based on very old meta information I wasn't directly involved with.

I also do not buy the defense given the timing of the posts in each place, as pointed out by others.

Intent to vote Voltgloss after UoS comes back and we sort out what's happening there.

I also really like the reactions this has caused.

Finds Voltgloss’s post-slip actions scummy in addition to the slip itself; doesn’t want to rely on second-hand, old meta-info.  Also points out the timestamp problem with Voltgloss’s defense. Minor townpoints here, bringing up the contradiction, which was an important piece of the case I feel.  Going back and forth between any QT could make sense, and I was prepared to admit that, but became convinced of my success when I saw the timestamps in the QT he said he was confused because of.



So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

Got some null people in order from town-null, null, scum-null are Eevee, Jorbles, Voltaire.  Eevee's townpoints get downgraded for being super-absent, Jorbles is null, Voltaire gets downgraded to scum-null because he was the last one to comment, possibly waiting to see what others thought of things.

I'm upgrading ashersky's scumpoints because his offhand vote on Voltgloss was to tell somebody how many votes Voltgloss had, and to agree with Robz's post on Volt's post-slip actions.  I think that nkirbit (scummy), ashersky (scummier), mail-mi (scummiest) come off scummy from the way they supported the Voltgloss lynch.

[shraeye]

Here's something I also found during reread

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

I think this may be the first time I get mislynched?  Deliciously ironic that it's all my own fault.

It's been fun gang! 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

That's quite a lengthy reaction from a case made by someone you should be sure is scum.

Town, remember this.  Please come back to it.  My parting shot has struck a nerve.

[Jorbles]

@shraeye: can you clarify your position on Robz?

...
Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

...
When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.
...
So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

You at one point say that you found Robz scummy, but then find him towny, and in the final bit on Robz you say you found him fairly towny. Ignoring everything else in the game, what you've isolated looks like you should feel fairly null on Robz? Personally I'm still forming an opinion on Robz who I always have trouble reading.

[yuma]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

[Robz888]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

[yuma]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

feast or famine man...

[Jorbles]

I hereby declare this page "The Page of Really, Really Long Posts"

Ugh, I know.

feast or famine man...

You guys are really tanking our post-length average.

[Eevee]

This will be my catch up post, starting from the start of day 2.

So, chairs and ashersky were killed. I would assume chairs was shot by mafia, as ashersky seemed like a very viable mislynch target and UoS-chairs was pretty universally thought of as towny. Ash could either be our SK's victim (in which case our vig chose not to shoot) or there was some double killing going on.

Robz is being unreasonably anti-vig (hi, I've been vig twice, shot once, hit mafia), but that's nothing new. Robz, all your arguments could be used to bash day 1 lynching, do you think that's terrible and "negative utility" too? ((I don't support vigs shooting night 1 and I agree vigs on f.ds have generally been way overeager. I don't know if this setup and needing kills to see alignments of dead players changes things though.)

All well and good, but what would you have wanted me (and the likes of me) to do? There was a case build that largely relied on a slip as a piece of evidence. That case made me believe Voltgloss had the highest chance of flipping scum. I should have just ignored that read, because it came from a source you don't deem legit? Vote for someone I think is less likely to be mafia, that person is town and then we feel better? It's obviously unfortunate things went down the way they did, but I don't regret voting for Voltgloss. I thought he was going to flip mafia, and it wasn't just the slip, it was the whole case shraeye posted that had me convinced. You can hold me responsible for that! I think you should hold everyone responsible for their votes. I think this lynch is very similar to most of our day 1 lynches - a townie makes a mistake, someone catches it and makes a case, enough people think that's a mafia-y mistake, they lynch the poor townie.

re: yuma's big post about our reactions to Voltgloss's "slip"

I don't think your problem was with the lynch being caused by a perceived slip. I think the problem is that the case on Voltgloss was so strong (because of the slip) that everyone thought he is our best lynch and scum quickly realized he was getting lynched no matter what, so they didn't have to push their hidden agenda. Which is practically the same as someone getting caught by a tracker or cop or a hider plan, except we were wrong this time.. I think being upset and I told you so-y to us about putting too much weight to a slip (that clearly wasn't a slip) would be fine, as we clearly were wrong. Your stance seems more like "you shouldn't pursue your reads if they came from a slip", which I do not agree with. Voltgloss himself thought it wasn't worth it to fight his lynch anymore because the evidence was too damning, so I still can't feel myself to feel bad about being wrong about that. Still responsible for my actions though!


.. I'm in the middle or reading shraeye's megapost and something came up. I'll be finishing this up in a couple of hours with my updated reads and a vote. Cliffhanger!

[Voltaire]

@shraeye: can you clarify your position on Robz?

...
Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

...
When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.
...
So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

You at one point say that you found Robz scummy, but then find him towny, and in the final bit on Robz you say you found him fairly towny. Ignoring everything else in the game, what you've isolated looks like you should feel fairly null on Robz? Personally I'm still forming an opinion on Robz who I always have trouble reading.

Jorbles took the words right out of my mouth. f.ds was loading slowly for me and I had to catch a bus, and by the time I got home I found this post already. I have the same question.

[mail-mi]

Homework, so I will do some catchup (hopefully) later, but I've read the cases on NK and I like them, so I'll vote: nkirbit and do some stuff later.

[Eevee]

So, for whatever reason, nothing that has happened day 2 this far has given me much of a read. Not having flips for night kills really sucks I guess?

Very unlike myself, I don't have any strong town reads at this point. My strongest scumread is clear however, and that's Robz. Admittedly it's mostly for stuff that happened day 1, but as far as I can see his scumhunting contributions today have been finding yuma slightly scummy for his Itoldyouso-ness and nkirbit scummy for making promises and then there are these

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

Come out scum. Say hi.

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

and these

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

Seems he is trying to artificially increase his post count so it wouldn't seem like he is a lurker so he could go after people with low post counts. If it's just an attempt to get the game rolling, I think what yuma (and others) are doing with the rereads and digging back to Voltgloss's reads (oh hi, he suspected Robz too) is just much more helpful.

Mail-mi sheeping the nkirbit-case looks suspicious to me as well, so I'm back to my mid-day 1 preferences: Robz is the scummiest followed by mail-mi. I also have somewhat of a bad feeling about yuma, he is putting in an admirable amount of effort but I don't really agree with his conclusions or cases like I usually do.

[Voltaire]

vote: nkirbit

I did a re-read of nkirbit after seeing yuma's case on him (which includes my D1 case) and Jorble's reminder of Voltgloss's take on him. What sticks out in the re-read the most is nkirbit retroSheeping Robz on ash. He also outright lies about UoS's play and has no defense when I point it out (technically he makes one, but it is mostly just to repeat his claim):

Then, this happens:

But UoS trying to fan the flames on Ashersky while making it appear like he's not the one doing so is definitely scummy.

In general, I agree with Jorble's view on UoS.  He has been trying to lead the conversation in a direction to make someone else point out a scummy thing someone else did without having to do it himself.  So he doesn't get his hands dirty.  Examples are posts #255, 257, 265, 284, 291.  He seems very reluctant to actually say, "I find X scummy!".  This is quite possibly a scum trait.

Vote: UmbrageOfSnow

This is just flat-out incorrect, as pointed out by UoS himself, and another sheep. Take it all together, and vote: nkirbit.

It wasn't just flat-out incorrect.  My point was that UoS was pointing out things that people might find scummy about Ashersky while simultaneously claiming that he didn't felt him scummy.  I felt that it could be scum trying to paint a player as scummy without getting their hands dirty, and I felt that other posts he made could be interpreted that way.

UoS pointing out that he was clear that he didn't find Ashersky scummy doesn't prevent my point.  It may be incorrect as shown by his claim, but a lot of the day1 cases we make are incorrect.  But I do maintain that it's a reasonable interpretation of his actions I pointed out.

nkirbit does have some pro-town posts, like this one where he considers going back to the 3 PR thing

I think so, unfortunately.  If you get NKed, we don't find out which PR you can use, and whichever scum kills you can safely use it as a fakeclaim.

I think I would prefer all 3 PRs claiming generic PR, honestly.  So I think we should as a group decide which we want.

Don't claim this second, actually.  I think we should vote or something on if we want the other two PRs to claim or you to fakeclaim.

but his lurking D2 tips this over enough for me. He fits into the acti-lurking window (not the best fit, but one of several). I still don't think that his not-talking-about-theory-talking-about-theory action was scummy.

This is basically me agreeing with yuma and Robz and...mail-mi.

What I thought initially threw a wrench into this was mail-mi (yet again!) sheeping the previous votes on nkirbit and hopping on the wagon, but when I re-read mail-mi I realized that if he's the SK everything fits.

Still waiting on the rest of Eevee's reads.

Ashersky offhandedly votes, giving no specific indication of reason, though likely this is a slip-vote.

Also, vote: voltgloss.  Have we had an official vote count recently?

Scumpoints for the offhanded vote, while focusing on defending himself from Voltaire

Actually I was one of ash's stronger supporters D1. Do you mean Voltgloss?

Also please answer this question: who do you actually want to lynch?

PPE: Eevee made another big post.

[Voltaire]

My strongest scumread is clear however, and that's Robz.

Eevee, what do you make of this?

It's really appropriate though! I am literally sticking my tongue out at you, because we got you on a scumslip! And now you are trying--politely, I might add--to set me up for mislynch.

How is this possible? You are saying that if Voltgloss is scum, which most of us thought at the time, he is trying to set you up for a mislynch. That doesn't work - Volt, as town, knows that he is going to flip town and is trying to send his strongest read before dying (good town play). You, thinking Volt is scum, claim he is setting you up for a mis-lynch. But you should be thinking that he will flip scum, in which case we will ignore whatever he says. In what universe do we sheep dead scum?

I was thinking that he would flip scum, so we would say, "Okay, Volt is scum, who is he aligned with? Well, what has he done. You know, he was really anti-Robz at the end. Irrationally anti-Robz. Wanna bet Robz is his partner and he was doing that to make us think Robs was the one person who wasn't his partner?" It's WIFOM (there's an expression we haven't sen in a while...).

[Eevee]

I applauded you for the catch at the time, but Robz's explanation is an okay save. I don't believe anyone of us is that much smarter than the others that they could expect to effectively wifom town like that though, so I don't agree with the narrative Robz was proposing.

[Voltaire]

I applauded you for the catch at the time, but Robz's explanation is an okay save. I don't believe anyone of us is that much smarter than the others that they could expect to effectively wifom town like that though, so I don't agree with the narrative Robz was proposing.

Which means you find him scummy nonetheless?

[nkirbit]

Sorry, I'm caught up with a lot of work and won't be on for any extended period of time tonight.  I will say that I'm most suspicious of Robz for describing me as attempting to appear active while contributing nothing at all, because that's simply not true.  I posted shortly after the start of day2, and then didn't post at all until yesterday, when I said I would be around tomorrow.

I was not around, at all.  Robz trying to suggest that I was trying to appear active while really not contributing day2 is completely false, as I literally did not have a post during the time he's accusing me of this behavior.

Mail-Mi sheeped on pretty heavily, but that's classic mail-mi.

I don't quite get Yuma's case, having skimmed it.  Yeah, others were suspicious of Ashersky, and yeah I shared some opinions with people, but how do you pick me out as the scummy one there as opposed to, say, Robz.

[Eevee]

I applauded you for the catch at the time, but Robz's explanation is an okay save. I don't believe anyone of us is that much smarter than the others that they could expect to effectively wifom town like that though, so I don't agree with the narrative Robz was proposing.

Which means you find him scummy nonetheless?

I do. That interaction isn't a big part of why, though.

[liopoil]

I went and read robz's posts.

- he has 3 theory talk posts early D1. none of them mention the vig, so that is consistent with him forgetting to rant about it.

-

Mail mi always comes across as scummy--but he has actually been scum a good amount of times. He is also the one person I can name who has made scumslips that did turn out to be legitimately scumslips.

He's essentially always someone I am willing to lynch.

seems to suggest he doesn't support scumslips in general, just for mail-mi.

- he's taken authority a few times. examples: imploring ash to contribute, saying no hammers until UoS claims, saying no hammers until everyone has a chance to counterclaim chairs, scolding people for not talking (a lot)

How are those slips...?

his first reaction to shraeye's case. then when he explained himself "oh. woah." then "Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant." then "Explanation immediately, please, Voltgloss. Don't take time to think."

Ah, Voltgloss. I'm sorry, man. I really hate to lynch you Day 1 in your first game back. But... I just don't think we can overlook this. And I know you understand that.

With a heavy heart, Vote: Voltgloss

Good work, shraeye.

he kinda apologizes for lynching him...

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

I don't think this is a great case - but it's an important interaction to point out.

- I think he went over the top in his anti-vig shot thing D2.

- so many of his post are double posts, a continuation of what he said in his most recent post. I can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in the last post, but still. I don't really believe that scum inflate their post counts, but if they ever do, this is it.

-

and then there are these

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

Come out scum. Say hi.

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

and these

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

yeah, that's a lot of going after lurkers.

Anyway, not all the stuff I quoted is scummy, but a lot of it is. Vote: Robz888

My strongest scumread is clear however, and that's Robz. Admittedly it's mostly for stuff that happened day 1

Interested to see what that stuff is. is it the same stuff as voltgloss?

[Eevee]

It's Voltgloss's case which I agree with, the fact that majority of his posts talk about things that have little or very little to this game or people's alignments here and his very fishy explanations for Voltgloss's case on him. He really really really is lacking in original content, in my opinion.

I look at things Robz has done in this game, first he was not posting anything at all (not towny), then he started posting, first long posts not about this game (not towny), lately short posts not about this game or blaming others for not moving the game forward (not towny)  then wanting to go after lurkers once his own post count isn't at the bottom anymore (not towny). A dead townie suspected him, I myself got a bad feeling about him already on post #404 and nothing I've seen has made that feeling disappear.

[yuma]

I don't quite get Yuma's case, having skimmed it.  Yeah, others were suspicious of Ashersky, and yeah I shared some opinions with people, but how do you pick me out as the scummy one there as opposed to, say, Robz.

Let me know when you haven't skimmed it and have questions afterward.

[yuma]

I also have somewhat of a bad feeling about yuma, he is putting in an admirable amount of effort but I don't really agree with his conclusions or cases like I usually do.

Do you normally though? I feel like you and I are generally on opposite sides of things...

Recent games....

Harry Potter: I voted for you toward the end obviously you wouldn't agree with that and we both ended up on chairs because I was desperate for a lynch. Lynches after that were fairly obvious.

B2B: you didn't join me for either of the votes on robz or liopoil (you subbed into that game day2)

Mean Girls: we were scum together and you did agree with me a fair amount... scum buddying!

Pirates: we were together for the Arch lynch early and EFHW and mail-mi day2 but never on the same end of day lynch wagon. Then I suspected you as well day3 once again.

Bankers: I am not going to look through that monster.

But you get the idea.... I am not sure you agree with my conclusions as often as you think you do, except when we are scum together. Why do you think that is?

[Eevee]

Your reputation might be hurting you. I feel these days myself and others as well are just very paranoid of getting fooled by scum yuma again. I naturally trust you way less than most others, thinking "man, what if he is pulling one over me again, that would hurt my ego..". It's the price you have to pay for playing some very strong scum games, I guess.

But I didn't even necessarily mean the end conclusions and votes, more like general perceptions of events. I haven't thought "wow, yuma makes a good point here!" in this game as often as I would have expected to given the amount of work you've put into your rereads especially today.

[yuma]

Your reputation might be hurting you. I feel these days myself and others as well are just very paranoid of getting fooled by scum yuma again. I naturally trust you way less than most others, thinking "man, what if he is pulling one over me again, that would hurt my ego..". It's the price you have to pay for playing some very strong scum games, I guess.

It is a price I am willing to pay, but it is also something that I would like to be acknowledged by others. So thanks for acknowledging it.

But I didn't even necessarily mean the end conclusions and votes, more like general perceptions of events. I haven't thought "wow, yuma makes a good point here!" in this game as often as I would have expected to given the amount of work you've put into your rereads especially today.

I do think that lately I have somewhat drifted from the majority on lots of things... claiming, ideas on how to scumhunt, opinions on RVS. I don't know. I think sometimes I tend to drift toward the minority views just as my personality (being a liberal in a very conservative community for example) so maybe that is happening here. But mostly I think I have been noticing that mafia has been winning more games of late (although town is on a nice mini-streak here) and that because of that we need to switch up how we think about the game and as such some of my views are changing and evolving. Maybe that is part of it. But I feel like you felt the same way with me in Harry Potter... remember your "Remember SCIENCE" argument?

[nkirbit]

Yuma, it just looks like I'm being found scummy for sharing opinions that others have had.  I think Jorbles presented a good case on UoS, so I voted there, and I was uneasy about Ashersky, so I pushed that case.  It's kind of odd to me that I'm scummy for the Ashersky case despite being the first one there.. since had others not followed onto Ash, I wouldn't have been scummy, and it's not my fault what others do.  I found Ash scummy but wasn't able to clearly communicate why, so kind of used other's explanations.

But I don't get why you find me scummy for this but not Robz.  Robz is voting for me right now, as are others.  Robz was also suspicious of Ashersky yesterday.  How am I scummy but not him?

Vote: Robz.  Partly because Voltgloss was suspicious of him, and partly because of the bit where he accuses me of acti-lurking in a thread that I was completely ignoring.

[nkirbit]

As regards to the case you posted by Voltaire:  What I said about UoS was, I maintain, a reasonable interpretation, and calling it "Flat out incorrect" with the implication that I was trying to build a mislynch on UoS is simply, well, flat out incorrect.  I've stated this before.

[Voltaire]

I think Jorbles presented a good case on UoS, so I voted there, and I was uneasy about Ashersky, so I pushed that case.  It's kind of odd to me that I'm scummy for the Ashersky case despite being the first one there.. since had others not followed onto Ash, I wouldn't have been scummy, and it's not my fault what others do.  I found Ash scummy but wasn't able to clearly communicate why, so kind of used other's explanations.

You sheeped a bad case. You do not get towncred for that. And the bold is a misrepresentation of why and others I think you're scummy re: ash - you found him scummy for a completely unconvincing reason and then sheeped others when your bad reasons clearly weren't cutting it.

[nkirbit]

Because my initial read on Ash was based on a feeling, rather than hard evidence.  If I have a feeling that a player is scum, and doesn't feel towny to me, I don't think it's unreasonable to look for evidence to support that.  I just had a gut feeling that Ash's presentation of his case was that of a scum member.  Of course no one was listening to my gut feeling, I wouldn't buy someone else's gut feeling.  But I did try and figure out why I was getting that feeling.

[Eevee]

Well, there is the yuma I completely agree with again!

You are not my preferred lynch, and if I had to pinpoint why I don't have a town read on you, I couldn't articulate it any better. I tend to always have a huge town read on anyone who leads the town and puts in the effort (Voltgloss yesterday, until the 'slip'.. sigh..), so I thought the fact I don't feel that way about you know was noteworthy even if I don't mean to pursue it any further at this point.

[yuma]

Yuma, it just looks like I'm being found scummy for sharing opinions that others have had.  I think Jorbles presented a good case on UoS, so I voted there, and I was uneasy about Ashersky, so I pushed that case.  It's kind of odd to me that I'm scummy for the Ashersky case despite being the first one there.. since had others not followed onto Ash, I wouldn't have been scummy, and it's not my fault what others do.  I found Ash scummy but wasn't able to clearly communicate why, so kind of used other's explanations.

But I don't get why you find me scummy for this but not Robz.  Robz is voting for me right now, as are others.  Robz was also suspicious of Ashersky yesterday.  How am I scummy but not him?

kinds looks like you still have only skimmed it....

Ok. Here is what I am saying.

If you remember in B2B I was able to pinpoint both you and liopoil for doing something that I found to be scummy (pushing an easy lynch on mail-mi). We lynched you day1 for it. You were town. However, that didn't stop me from pressing the idea that liopoil was scummy. He was scum. I argued that it didn't matter that he had done something that someone else who was town (nkribit). Just because a town player did it doesn't make him town as well, in fact it makes him scummy. I didn't coin the phrase then, but I am now. I am calling it mirroring.

That is what I am accusing you of doing and I think it is a tactic that mafia does. I have been able to catch mafia twice with it now that I am specifically aware of and there are probably cases that I am not aware of because I haven't really been looking for it specifically until now. First there was a case in MVIII where a player named Captain_Frisk was mafia and I was town. Throughout the day we mirrored each other very closely on our major reads. For most of the day I read him as town, erroneously thinking that if I was doing something as town, it would be silly to accuse someone else for doing the same thing! Eventually we figured it out and lynched him. I don't think C_Frisk was doing it intentionally. Rather it was just a natural thing to do. Not really sheep, but just to continue with a read as long there was another townie to tag along with (safety in numbers idea).

I think liopoil did the same thing with you in B2B and I think you are doing the same thing here.

Now what separates you from Robz?

The answer is that I think you have been mirroring both me and Robz. If you look at my post with the quotes it shows you continuing your read and becoming more assure of it and mirroring our reasons for your read as the game progresses. I think that is the difference and what stands out to me.

[nkirbit]

Yuma, not addressing the case itself but more of it's structure, that only seems to function as a case against me if both you and Robz are town.  I understand why you would buy that case, and I understand why Robz would buy that case, perhaps.  But are you worried about others sheeping onto that case?  Because it seems to me that they would have to be saying, "Okay, if we assume Yuma is town, and we assume Robz is town, (and heck, we assume that Ash was town, because I think there are issues with the case is he wasn't), then Nkirbit has a decent chance of being scum."  I think that those are a lot of assumptions to be making in order to get to a case that could be wrong even if the assumptions are met, and would be worried about those sheeping your case.

[Eevee]

Oh, well, now I get the nkirbit case, it's a good thing you restated it. That isn't half bad! Especially because mirroring isn't a thing we've talked about earlier really, so scum wouldn't think to avoid doing it.

Also hey I remember mafia VIII! I think it was actually me who realized the striking similarities in the reads you and frisk had. If I recall correctly, I read you scummier for it, but others disagreed and somehow a wagon formed on Frisk and I abandoned my townread on him and threw in the hammer vote. I was phone posting and I remember exactly where I was at the time of the hammer, Frisk flipping scum felt GREAT until you vigged me (a hidden IC) the following night.. Oh, sorry for the derail, a trip town the memory lane.

[Eevee]

Rather, that's the kind of creative case I've grown to expect from town yuma. I still think robz is scummier so I'm not super sold on it (two scum teams though), but I can follow your logic and the narrative you build generally makes a lot of sense.

[nkirbit]

By the way, yuma, your one example of me mirroring you is on the question, "Why would scum!Ash be doing this?".  That is very obviously the answer... your response was far from some revolutionary breakthrough that no one else could have possibly come up with themselves.

[Voltaire]

Yuma, not addressing the case itself but more of it's structure, that only seems to function as a case against me if both you and Robz are town.  I understand why you would buy that case, and I understand why Robz would buy that case, perhaps.  But are you worried about others sheeping onto that case?  Because it seems to me that they would have to be saying, "Okay, if we assume Yuma is town, and we assume Robz is town, (and heck, we assume that Ash was town, because I think there are issues with the case is he wasn't), then Nkirbit has a decent chance of being scum."  I think that those are a lot of assumptions to be making in order to get to a case that could be wrong even if the assumptions are met, and would be worried about those sheeping your case.

Why are you talking directly to yuma so much?

I am somewhat nervous that mail-mi (my read is scum) and yuma (my read is nyergh) are also voting for you, but I feel a bit better about townRobz after you voted for him (he's voting for you...). There are multiple scum teams - nobody has to "assume" the alignment of three other players for you to be scum.

[yuma]

Yuma, not addressing the case itself but more of it's structure, that only seems to function as a case against me if both you and Robz are town.  I understand why you would buy that case, and I understand why Robz would buy that case, perhaps.  But are you worried about others sheeping onto that case?  Because it seems to me that they would have to be saying, "Okay, if we assume Yuma is town, and we assume Robz is town, (and heck, we assume that Ash was town, because I think there are issues with the case is he wasn't), then Nkirbit has a decent chance of being scum."  I think that those are a lot of assumptions to be making in order to get to a case that could be wrong even if the assumptions are met, and would be worried about those sheeping your case.

I didn't really take ashersky's alignment into view here and I don't necessarily think that I needed to. I mean if he is mafia then it does raise some questions, he most likely isn't the SK, so that is a point... Maybe I should have. But that is hard to do as we dont' know what he alignment is.

As for Robz. Again, I don't think I assumed Robz was town. Specifically I reread some players, yourself included and that was what jumped out to me as I reread. I noted all the interactions I could find between all players and the reads on ash and noticed that nkirbit, yuma and robz were the pushers of ash. I noticed that our opinions were often similar and looked more into it and felt that you were doing something that I had recently begun to notice and look for. I know this isn't "standard scum hunting" but I don't scum hunt that way because mafia knows we will scum hunt that way.

as for being worried about people sheeping my case. Too an extent... but if I believe I am right about something I shouldn't stop believing I am right just because people agree with me... what sort of backward logic is that?

[yuma]

By the way, yuma, your one example of me mirroring you is on the question, "Why would scum!Ash be doing this?".  That is very obviously the answer... your response was far from some revolutionary breakthrough that no one else could have possibly come up with themselves.

I never said my post was a revolutionary breakthrough

[shraeye]

@shraeye: can you clarify your position on Robz?

...
Robz:

Voltgloss -- Seems like town Voltgloss so far. And really, it's just so good to have him back.

...
When I clarified that his slips were tag-related (the slips were in the initial case, but nobody picked up on it I guess), immediately Robz’s reaction was “whoa!” followed by

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

Scumpoints.  He jumps immediately at the slip, and doesn’t give one hoot about any parts of the case.

Yuma comes in and is against voting Voltgloss.  He doesn’t find the slip to be that big, and doesn’t like slip-based lynches. In response, Robz says this

I actually think that Volt has behaved incredibly like caught mafia since shraeye called him out, bolstering the case.

Townpoints, as he’s noticing intereactions other than just the obvious slip-case, and is still trying to read Voltgloss instead of just marking him as a done lynch.
...
So in summary, I think that liopoil's reactions to the Voltgloss case were the towniest, and Robz was looking town as well. 

You at one point say that you found Robz scummy, but then find him towny, and in the final bit on Robz you say you found him fairly towny. Ignoring everything else in the game, what you've isolated looks like you should feel fairly null on Robz? Personally I'm still forming an opinion on Robz who I always have trouble reading.

I don't have a fully formed position on Robz.  I think that the middle post of his that you quoted from me is scummy; to forget teh entire case and focus only on the tag-slips.  But the middle one seems like a towny interaction.  He was continuing to assess Voltgloss, which in my mind keeps open the possibility that the slip was wrong.  He wasn't just "vote fro Voltgloss; stop thinking about anything, mislynch is in place".

I think the second outweighs the first, so I meant exactly what I said, that he is looking towny from his reactions to the Voltgloss-slip.  This isn't a situation where I'm counting instances of townness/scumness and scoring 1-1.  Not every vibe is as strong.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.0

nkirbit (4) Robz888, yuma, mail-mi, Voltaire
Robz888 (2) liopoil, nkirbit

Not Voting (3) shraeye, Eevee, Jorbles

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day ends on August 26th.

[yuma]

wow... L-1? Am I the only one that was caught off guard by that?

[Voltaire]

wow... L-1? Am I the only one that was caught off guard by that?

No. But something's up with that vote count - it lists Voltgloss as not voting.

[yuma]

voltgloss should be jorbles... who I think is voting. Who is jorbles voting for?

[nkirbit]

So I do think that nkirbit has been mirroring both robz and I. Note again that this is different from sheeping. To me mirroring is when you have a read as scum (whether sheeped or not) that you maintain throughout the game because other people have had it as well. Basically as scum you feel comfortable keeping a read or an opinion because there is the idea of safety in numbers. C_Frisk did it with me in MVIII and lio I think did it with nkribit in B2B.

But what really jumps out to me here is that nkribit does it with not just me, but with robz and me.

It is important to note that he had the first vote on ashersky. So it certainly hasn't been a sheep situation for him (but I think he knows better than to sheep as scum).

This is actually quite troubling to me.  This reminds me of Robz in B2B saying, "I'm actually suspicious of him because he's defending himself well, because that's what I'd expect scum!Nkirbit to do."  It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't type of thing, and makes me uncomfortable.  Had I been sheeping, Yuma could have said, "Look, he's sheeping, that's scummy!"  But instead we get, "Look, Nkirbit's doing this thing that's not quite sheeping, that's scummy!".  It's the same feeling I get from looking back at Robz's post in B2B, and Robz was scum in that game.

[Voltaire]

voltgloss should be jorbles... who I think is voting. Who is jorbles voting for?

Jorbles is not voting at least not in the quick skim of his posts I just did.

[yuma]

So I do think that nkirbit has been mirroring both robz and I. Note again that this is different from sheeping. To me mirroring is when you have a read as scum (whether sheeped or not) that you maintain throughout the game because other people have had it as well. Basically as scum you feel comfortable keeping a read or an opinion because there is the idea of safety in numbers. C_Frisk did it with me in MVIII and lio I think did it with nkribit in B2B.

But what really jumps out to me here is that nkribit does it with not just me, but with robz and me.

It is important to note that he had the first vote on ashersky. So it certainly hasn't been a sheep situation for him (but I think he knows better than to sheep as scum).

This is actually quite troubling to me.  This reminds me of Robz in B2B saying, "I'm actually suspicious of him because he's defending himself well, because that's what I'd expect scum!Nkirbit to do."  It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't type of thing, and makes me uncomfortable.  Had I been sheeping, Yuma could have said, "Look, he's sheeping, that's scummy!"  But instead we get, "Look, Nkirbit's doing this thing that's not quite sheeping, that's scummy!".  It's the same feeling I get from looking back at Robz's post in B2B, and Robz was scum in that game.

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

[Voltaire]

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

This. I'm intrigued by yuma's mirroring concept as it seems to come from the same school as the "scum knowing things they shouldn't know" subtle scum tell. I'm not super-convinced here that's what you're doing, but I am convinced that you are once again distorting a situation.

[yuma]

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

This. I'm intrigued by yuma's mirroring concept as it seems to come from the same school as the "scum knowing things they shouldn't know" subtle scum tell. I'm not super-convinced here that's what you're doing, but I am convinced that you are once again distorting a situation.

Sorry, I feel lost. Can you repeat the question...

[Voltaire]

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

This. I'm intrigued by yuma's mirroring concept as it seems to come from the same school as the "scum knowing things they shouldn't know" subtle scum tell. I'm not super-convinced here that's what you're doing, but I am convinced that you are once again distorting a situation.

Sorry, I feel lost. Can you repeat the question...

? I was agreeing with you that nkirbit has defending himself in a scummy fashion.

[nkirbit]

Right, but it's you saying, "Look, he's not doing this thing that's scummy... he's doing this other thing, and by the way, that's also scummy!"  Like you realized that one avenue of attack against me won't work, so you're shifting to another method.

By the way, in case I'm lynched:  In B2B, Yuma strongly pushed a case against me that got me mislynched.  Despite that, I was extremely confident that he was town.  I'm not here, at all.  If I do get lynched, I want town to look at Yuma tomorrow.

Also, do you have any examples of me mirroring you other than saying why scum!Ashersky would not post for several days before I did?  Because, again, I came up with my answer myself.  It wasn't a particularly difficult or scummy answer, so I don't see why I would have the incentive to mirror you, or particularly need to.  I don't get any town cred for copying your answer.. so why would I do it if I was scum?  I was just answering the question.. I can do that as town or scum, I admit, but even as scum I don't think I need to "mirror" you to give an obvious answer to an obvious question.

[nkirbit]

Actually, Vote: Yuma

[Voltaire]

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

This. I'm intrigued by yuma's mirroring concept as it seems to come from the same school as the "scum knowing things they shouldn't know" subtle scum tell. I'm not super-convinced here that's what you're doing, but I am convinced that you are once again distorting a situation.

Sorry, I feel lost. Can you repeat the question...

Oh I see the confusion. "You" refers to nkirbit, not yuma.

[yuma]

No. This is a poor defense. And I find you scummier for it. This is not a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. There is sheeping. And there is "mirroring" They are not inverses of each other. You don't have to be doing one or the other...

This. I'm intrigued by yuma's mirroring concept as it seems to come from the same school as the "scum knowing things they shouldn't know" subtle scum tell. I'm not super-convinced here that's what you're doing, but I am convinced that you are once again distorting a situation.

Sorry, I feel lost. Can you repeat the question...

? I was agreeing with you that nkirbit has defending himself in a scummy fashion.

Ah. I thought you were responding to me since you had quoted my post... But I guess you were talking to nkirbit. Hence my confusion.

[yuma]

Right, but it's you saying, "Look, he's not doing this thing that's scummy... he's doing this other thing, and by the way, that's also scummy!"  Like you realized that one avenue of attack against me won't work, so you're shifting to another method.

By the way, in case I'm lynched:  In B2B, Yuma strongly pushed a case against me that got me mislynched.  Despite that, I was extremely confident that he was town.  I'm not here, at all.  If I do get lynched, I want town to look at Yuma tomorrow.

Also, do you have any examples of me mirroring you other than saying why scum!Ashersky would not post for several days before I did?  Because, again, I came up with my answer myself.  It wasn't a particularly difficult or scummy answer, so I don't see why I would have the incentive to mirror you, or particularly need to.  I don't get any town cred for copying your answer.. so why would I do it if I was scum?  I was just answering the question.. I can do that as town or scum, I admit, but even as scum I don't think I need to "mirror" you to give an obvious answer to an obvious question.

I think you are missing the point... I feel that this "mirroring" concept isn't something that mafia actively does. I think it is something that they naturally do. Go with the flow... Continue with wagons when town members also support them. It isn't the parroting or repeating, it is staying in a safe place because there is a majority of other players who you (as mafia) aren't aligned with (so they are likely town). It is just a nice place to be in and one that I think mafia does naturally.

Once upon a time that mafia also naturally sheeped cases. It was just the natural response because coming up with your own case was hard. After a while we realized that it was something that scum did naturally and started calling them out on it. Now it is "known" and mafia thinks twice before sheeping. Not so with mirroring--although they might start being aware of it now after this big discussion, but that is the game of mafia for you....

[nkirbit]

I wouldn't pat yourself on the back for shifting the mafia meta just yet, Yuma.  Maybe another day.

[yuma]

I wouldn't pat yourself on the back for shifting the mafia meta just yet, Yuma.  Maybe another day.

No back patting. But you are getting snippy. And I am not really in the mood for that. So I am off to bed.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, can you give me a case where I was mirroring you other than the one you've already brought up?  You still haven't.

In the case you brought up, I was providing an obvious answer to an obvious question.

Your case is built on this theory of scum mirroring other players, but your only example of me mirroring you is easily explained by, "Nkirbit was providing an obvious answer."  You have yet to provide another example of me mirroring you, yet your entire case in based on the fact that I was mirroring multiple players!  But I wasn't mirroring you there.

If I wasn't mirroring you in the only example you've provided of me mirroring you, why are people still trying to lynch me for mirroring multiple players?

[nkirbit]

Anyway, I'm not going to be on tomorrow until very late.

[nkirbit]

In case I get hammered before I can get on:  Lynch Yuma tomorrow.  Or Robz.  One of the two.

[Voltaire]

If I wasn't mirroring you in the only example you've provided of me mirroring you, why are people still trying to lynch me for mirroring multiple players?

I'm mostly voting you for your D1 actions, and for, sure enough, showing up here once a wagon on you started rolling. And you've voted for Robz and yuma now, which certainly isn't helping.

[nkirbit]

If I wasn't mirroring you in the only example you've provided of me mirroring you, why are people still trying to lynch me for mirroring multiple players?

I'm mostly voting you for your D1 actions, and for, sure enough, showing up here once a wagon on you started rolling. And you've voted for Robz and yuma now, which certainly isn't helping.

About the showing up thing:

Sorry, I've recently been hit by a serious case of disinterest.  I promise that I will be back tomorrow and contribute more.

I showed up exactly when I said I would show up.  And I said that before a wagon starting rolling on me.

[nkirbit]

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

Not everyone. I've seen effort (of varying usefulness) from Robz, yuma, lio, Jorbles, and nkirbit. That leaves Eevee, shraeye, and mail-mi as our flat-out lurkers today.

Actually, flip nkirbit from effort to lurking.

I was gonna say--I think nkirbit's lurking.

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Again, this is the post that Robz made about me.

I think it's scummy because it looks like he didn't go back and re-check my contributions to verify his statement.. he just said something because he wanted to make me look scummy.

I was not putting in "minimal effort".  I was putting in absolutely nothing, at all.  Between August 16th and early morning August 20th, when I said I would be back the next day, I made a grand total of zero posts.  That's not contributing minimally to maintain an appearance of activity... that's contributing absolutely nothing at all.  Yet Robz misclassified me, and put me into a category that is scummy.  That's why I think Robz is quite possibly scum, since he mis-categorized a player into a category and then called them scummy for being in that category.

[Voltaire]

This is nkirbit's only post D2, prior to real-life today, that I would consider having any value at all.

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

[nkirbit]

This is nkirbit's only post D2, prior to real-life today, that I would consider having any value at all.

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

I don't disagree.  But it's not like I was actively posting crap posts.. I wasn't posting anything at all.

[nkirbit]

By the way... while sheeping can be scummy, town members do it somewhat regularly, and often without intending to.  I don't think I'm mirroring people, but even if you think I am... why does that mean that I'm automatically scum for it?  Doesn't it make sense for a town member to gain confidence in a read that others share just as much as it would for scum to do the same?

I'm suspicious of Yuma for not even pointing this out as a possibility, which jumps out to me as him possibly not providing my actions with a fair re-read.  Even if Yuma thinks I'm mirroring, he never seemed to consider whether this mirroring would make sense for a town member to do.  It seemed like he found something that could be construed as evidence, and then used it to make his case, skipping the step where he should have asked if it would be something that made sense for a town member to do.  And I think that's scummy of him.

[Robz888]

Nkirbit, I'm perplexed.

Do you actually find me and yuma scummy for coming after you? Or is this just frsutration?

[Eevee]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

[yuma]

Nkirbit, I'm perplexed.

Do you actually find me and yuma scummy for coming after you? Or is this just frsutration?

Likewise.

[yuma]

By the way... while sheeping can be scummy, town members do it somewhat regularly, and often without intending to.  I don't think I'm mirroring people, but even if you think I am... why does that mean that I'm automatically scum for it?  Doesn't it make sense for a town member to gain confidence in a read that others share just as much as it would for scum to do the same?

I'm suspicious of Yuma for not even pointing this out as a possibility, which jumps out to me as him possibly not providing my actions with a fair re-read.  Even if Yuma thinks I'm mirroring, he never seemed to consider whether this mirroring would make sense for a town member to do.  It seemed like he found something that could be construed as evidence, and then used it to make his case, skipping the step where he should have asked if it would be something that made sense for a town member to do.  And I think that's scummy of him.

Of course it is a possibility.... In my explanation of what "mirroing" is I gave the two examples of players who were mirroring each other... me and frisk in MVIII, you and lio in B2B. In both those examples there was a town player in the mirroring duo (me and you respectively). Here I know there is someone that is town (me) in what appears to be more of a trio (Robz is still kinda a tossup for me).

Now if you are saying it is possible that 2 townies mirror each other. Sure that is possible... But you can make that argument for anything any player does and it often applies. Town members sheep. Town members have "slips." Town members derp hammer. Town members provide null reads. Town members try to manipulate. Town members OMGUS. Town members self vote. Town members to all kind of scummy stuff. So I don't think it is necessary to explicitly say that perhaps town mirrors. It is a given. But what I am thinking right now is that it is more likely something that mafia does than town. If I use your logic I don't think I would ever be able to vote for anyone because town members do everything...

[yuma]

Anyway, can you give me a case where I was mirroring you other than the one you've already brought up?  You still haven't.

In the case you brought up, I was providing an obvious answer to an obvious question.

Your case is built on this theory of scum mirroring other players, but your only example of me mirroring you is easily explained by, "Nkirbit was providing an obvious answer."  You have yet to provide another example of me mirroring you, yet your entire case in based on the fact that I was mirroring multiple players!  But I wasn't mirroring you there.

If I wasn't mirroring you in the only example you've provided of me mirroring you, why are people still trying to lynch me for mirroring multiple players?

Me, Robz. 1+1=2. 2 is considered multiple yes? I don't understand this question perhaps?

[Robz888]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, can you give me a case where I was mirroring you other than the one you've already brought up?  You still haven't.

In the case you brought up, I was providing an obvious answer to an obvious question.

Your case is built on this theory of scum mirroring other players, but your only example of me mirroring you is easily explained by, "Nkirbit was providing an obvious answer."  You have yet to provide another example of me mirroring you, yet your entire case in based on the fact that I was mirroring multiple players!  But I wasn't mirroring you there.

If I wasn't mirroring you in the only example you've provided of me mirroring you, why are people still trying to lynch me for mirroring multiple players?

Me, Robz. 1+1=2. 2 is considered multiple yes? I don't understand this question perhaps?

I'm contesting the fact that I'm mirroring you.  The only example you listed as me mirroring you was based on us giving the same answer to the question, "Why would scum!Ash not post for several days."  Yeah, we provided the same answer, but it was obvious enough that I don't think us having the same answer is one of us mirroring the other.  We were the only two to answer because most others were not suspicious of Ashersky at the time.

I just think that if your only example of me mirroring you is that we both gave the same answer to a question that had an obvious answer, that's not very strong evidence for me mirroring your behavior, which your case is partly built on.

[nkirbit]

Nkirbit, I'm perplexed.

Do you actually find me and yuma scummy for coming after you? Or is this just frsutration?

I literally mean what I said.

[nkirbit]

To elaborate Robz, I don't find you and Yuma scummy simply because you're coming after me.  I find you scummy because of the way you're doing it.  For example, I don't find Voltaire scummy even though he's on my wagon, so it's not simply the fact that you're voting for me.  I've stated some reasons why I've found both you and Yuma scummy for your actions.

Vote: Robz because I am close between Robz and Yuma and Robz has much more support.  I don't think there's any chance of a Yuma lynch today and Robz and Yuma are virtually tied for me in who I think is more likely to flip scum.

[Jorbles]

Then he disappears for awhile and doesn't come back until UoS has generic claimed.

Dang, UoS, you seem to get a town PR every single game! (if you're town this time too). First glance, I believe him, but disagree with him claiming, unless he is the vig. btw, vig should shoot someone every night, I think.

He doesn't take any strong stands, says ash not posting is antitown, and points out that mail-mi gets lynched a lot.  He begins some theory discussion about PRs again. He posts some highlights from shraeye's scum slip.

Though I guess that's probably not going to satisfy people, seeing as how the posts shraeye is raising were after my latest post in that QT. 

It's pretty funny.  This is exactly the type of case I'd make and push really hard.  And yet, here I am (as town), making a mistake that is rightly being called as scummy - and yet I am town.  Ironic!  Guess I'm just rusty at the game.

...I can't even be mad, it's so hilarious.

Welp.  If you all want to lynch me for this, I won't hold it against any of you.  I'd be banging the drum for shraeye's lynch if I caught shraeye in this same manner.  Unfortunately, I am town, and you'll see that if you lynch me and I flip.  And I won't self-vote, because I am town.

Apologies for letting the town down.

PPE:  Yeah, you people already saw that.

well, I was unsure that the slips meant much, but this post reads quite scummy - trying to get us to realize that he can't be scum because he isn't defending himself, accepting his lynch. plus a bit of Appeal To Emotion...

intent to vote for votegloss, unsure how many votes he has.

Here he states his intent to vote for Voltgloss. In his next post he votes for Voltgloss.

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

Here liopoil unvotes. I think the act of doing this is scummy, but having read the way he did it, it comes across as doing it in a towny way to me. So null I guess.

Later he posts a bit of theory about whether or not chairs should claim, which is kinda null.

At the end of day 1 aside from being very lurky and posting little content I think liopoil is more of a neutral read than an all out scummy one.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.1

nkirbit (4) Robz888, yuma, mail-mi, Voltaire
Robz888 (3) liopoil, Eevee, nkirbit

Not Voting (2) shraeye, Jorbles

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day ends on August 26th.

[Jorbles]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

I find this kindof suspicious especially when you called out nkirbit for putting minimal effort into defending himself. Don't you have anything else to say?

Anyhow I am much more inclined to vote Robz than nkirbit. I don't fully understand the case on him. I admit that "mirroring" could be a valid scum tactic, probably a bit more advanced than sheeping, but it seems like it would be really easy to mistake with someone coming to the same conclusions as someone else for similar reasons as being some sort of malicious act. Honestly this vote on nkirbit feels wrong to me. At the moment I do not intend to vote for him.

[Voltaire]

I don't fully understand the case on him. I admit that "mirroring" could be a valid scum tactic, probably a bit more advanced than sheeping, but it seems like it would be really easy to mistake with someone coming to the same conclusions as someone else for similar reasons as being some sort of malicious act. Honestly this vote on nkirbit feels wrong to me. At the moment I do not intend to vote for him.

nkirbit is doing a great job of making it sound like yuma's mirroring case is the only case on him. I think only yuma is voting him for that reason (which part of the case does mail-mi support? How the heck could we know?) Robz is voting him for D2 acti-lurking and I am voting him for retroSheeping + lurking.

I find nkirbit scummy for ignoring/downplaying the other parts/cases on him.

[Jorbles]

I don't fully understand the case on him. I admit that "mirroring" could be a valid scum tactic, probably a bit more advanced than sheeping, but it seems like it would be really easy to mistake with someone coming to the same conclusions as someone else for similar reasons as being some sort of malicious act. Honestly this vote on nkirbit feels wrong to me. At the moment I do not intend to vote for him.

nkirbit is doing a great job of making it sound like yuma's mirroring case is the only case on him. I think only yuma is voting him for that reason (which part of the case does mail-mi support? How the heck could we know?) Robz is voting him for D2 acti-lurking and I am voting him for retroSheeping + lurking.

I find nkirbit scummy for ignoring/downplaying the other parts/cases on him.

Hmmm, I can see your point anyways. nkirbit's explanation for retroSheeping on the ash case strikes a cord with me though. Sometimes you have a hard time articulating your motivations. I'm not convinced of the nkirbit case, it kinda makes me feel leery (admittedly I have an upset stomach so many things make me feel leery). I still want to hear more from Robz before I vote for anyone.

[nkirbit]

I don't fully understand the case on him. I admit that "mirroring" could be a valid scum tactic, probably a bit more advanced than sheeping, but it seems like it would be really easy to mistake with someone coming to the same conclusions as someone else for similar reasons as being some sort of malicious act. Honestly this vote on nkirbit feels wrong to me. At the moment I do not intend to vote for him.

nkirbit is doing a great job of making it sound like yuma's mirroring case is the only case on him. I think only yuma is voting him for that reason (which part of the case does mail-mi support? How the heck could we know?) Robz is voting him for D2 acti-lurking and I am voting him for retroSheeping + lurking.

I find nkirbit scummy for ignoring/downplaying the other parts/cases on him.

I've addressed both of the cases brought up against me.  I've addressed Robz's cases multiple times.  I wasn't acti-lurking, I was extremely busy and was only logging on to the forums for a little bit each day to take care of things like Survivor and Diplomacy that required action each day.  If you look at the other game I'm currently in, you'll notice a posting gap during the same period.  What do you think happened, I decided to spontaneously acti-lurking at the same time in two different games, or I got busy and didn't check into multiple games for a period of time?

Furthoremore, I criticized Robz's characterization of me as a player who was trying to maintain enough of a presence to not be categorized as lurking, but wasn't contributing much.  That's not the case.  I wasn't at all trying to maintain any sort of presence, which should be obvious by the fact that I didn't post for about 100 hours!  I don't understand how not posting at all can be confused with trying to maintain a presence of not lurking, and it looks like Robz was trying to paint me as scummy without confirming his facts.

As to your case, Voltaire, I can absolutely see why you see my actions in regards to retroactively justifying my scum-read on Ashersky as scummy.  But I have addressed them, both Day1 and Day2, and I just don't have much more to say on the topic.  I'm not trying to downplay it, I'm just addressing Robz's and Yuma's cases more simply because I have more to say about them.

[Robz888]

Well, now I'm just trying to wrap my head around your desperate switching back between me and yuma, and what that means.

[shraeye]

#294, Robz thinks that PRs shouldn’t claim, says that town does win multiball often.  He votes ash for claiming off the bat.  Ashersky immediately tears into him because on f.DS town has lost a number of multiballs.  Yuma corrects ashersky and says that town has won many games with SKs in them.
possible link between Robz/Yuma

#299 (link) ash says that though Robz lied about town winning multiball, that this game is not multiball in his opinion.
wouldn’t that really invalidate ash’s vote? I mean, if he’s voting Robz for trying to claim that town has an advantage in this game when they don’t, but what Robz is talking about isn’t even how ash sees this game…?  Basically, where is the misdirection if Robz is lying about something that is outside of the realm of this game?

#302 (link)Robz clarifies that he’s against massclaiming so that scum are given the opportunity to shoot eachother.

In #307 (link) ash sees Yuma as coming to “his partner’s aid” when defending Robz. 
I don’t see this at all, I think that Yuma is just pointing out that ash is being wrong. I’m downgrading the link between Yuma/Robz.

#406 Robz’s V/LA ends, he begins to be much more active

#408 (link) Robz gets a major townread on jorbles when jorbles only names 2 suspects instead of 3
I think this is likely townier, but I disagree with how huge of a townvibe this is giving Robz.  He’s really going overboard here

#412 He finds mail-mi scummy for the OMGUS-votes meme joke.

#417 (link) when Robz posts his reads list, he lists Jorbles/Volt/Eevee/Yuma as people he won’t lynch. He wants mailmi or ahsersky.  Mailmi for the meme-post, and ash for which he says “I explained this already”.
I went back to find the posts where he explained this but the only thing that I see Robz saying about ashersky is this

Nothing to say, except yuma captures my thoughts on ash perfectly. Remember, ash is always up to do a crazy plan, regardless of whether he is town or scum. I think his crazy plan here might have been trying to get away with a VT claim as scum. Remember, there is extra benefit to that, here! Because you don't get shot by SKs that way.

yuma’s words about ashersky I sum up as saying that ash is trying too hard to be aggressive/abrasive and copy his town-meta.  I’m just not sure this adds up to a case.  What it feels like is Robz just taking his very first post of the game, and never looking back from the gut-reaction scumread.



#418 (link) Robz finds mail-mi towny for wanting to lynch Jimmmm, who isn’t even in the game.
I have no idea why this is towny.  UoS made some posts with Jimmmm’s name in them, which made mail-mi think that Jimm was playing.  So mail-mi decided he wanted to lynch Jimm for lurking.  I think it was a bit early in the game at that point to point the finger at lurkers.  I feel like that’s often a convenient suspicion when you don’t feel like scumhunting anywhere else.  I’ll wait until I reread mail-mi to pass final judgement on how towny I find this action.  But right now, I think it is towards the scummy side of null.  And it’s suspicious that Robz found it towny enough to take mail-mi off his “Want to lynch” list.  I would say scumRobz=>scummailmi.

#430 (link) Robz struggles to remember that liopoil is in the game; has no thoughts about him.  This post was brought on by a question form Voltgloss

At #436 Robz again reacts to mail-mi being silly.  Robz says that mail-mi has gone over the line with trying to be cute.

#443

Yeah, that's not a bad idea.

I think UoS should either full claim, or we possibly should consider actually doing the 3 PRs claim generic PR thing. Which I was against, but didn't think was so bad, and we are almost forced into it here.

odd that he thinks the 3PR claim wasn’t so bad, because I think that Robz’s point was one of the ones that shut that down

#495 (link) Robz remains convinced about ashersky, and now advocates UoS fullclaiming

#563 (link) Robz seems to be cooling down on the ashersky lynch.  This was right after I posted my Voltgloss case, but before I explained the slips more clearly.

I just wish ash had reserved his VT claim until after we had agreed to his plan. The way he did it makes him look scummier.

I don’t like how Robz held up on his ashersky read, basically the only read that Robz has offered at this point, other than memes=scummy argument on mailmi

A number of posts about Voltgloss occurred, I’ve covered these already.

#583 Robz responds to Voltgloss’s parting shot.  In this post (link), he confirms that he has cooled down on ashersky.

#698 (link) Robz says that Roleblocker shouldn’t claim, and then makes the after-the-fact point that Vigs shouldn’t shoot.
Small townpoints here, I agree that the roleblocker shoudlnt’ claim.

The next few posts are Robz giving his Vig-spiel, also saying that the Vig shouldn’t shoot night 2 either.

#713(link) After puzzling things out, Robz thinks that townvig shot ashersky and that mafia/SK doubled on chairs/UoS.
This is possibly true, I’m not convinced though that ashersky wasn’t mafia and a possible SK shot.  I don't like Robz's certainty on this set of events.

#719(link) Robz finds Yuma scummy for the I Told You So stance
I also don’t understand yuma’s stance.  I think it’s always a good idea to pursue slips, regardless of losing info.  Even if people just sheep things for the slip, there is still scumhunting to be done based on the wagon itself; I mean, I DID just that. 

#721 Robz wants to just talk things out with Yuma, since there isn’t any wagon-analyzing going on.  He asks what Yuma thinks about Voltgloss’s case onhim
townpoints here, I think that scum is more likely to just leave it at the “hey this is WIFOM” argument from day1, and not bring it up until somebody else does.  Robz tackles it headon, trying to use reactions to gain reads.

#730(link) Robz says that Yuma came out over the top in the IToldYouSo post

#737(link) Robz says that yuma’s ITYSo post actually detracted from flip-analysis because now we’re debating yuma’s point.
I think this is true, I find it odd that nobody had any wagon analysis before I came in and did it.  People just lamented the lack of wagon-analysis

#764(link) Robz votes nkirbit because he’s promising to reread, instead of just rereading.
Townpoints here too; I think this is a valid scumtell, to which a possible exception is Eevee.  But it shows concern over how one’s awayness is seen by others.

#779/780 Robz gets heavy on lurkers.

#784(link) Robz picks nkirbit because he appears to be avoiding “heavy-lurking” but in actuality isn’t contributing much
I haven’t reread nkirbit to verify this, but if it’s true, townpoints again to Robz for differentiating between “being away” and “scummy lurking”



summary
I'm leaning town here; day1 had some oddities, and I think a lot of them were tied to Robz not having that many, or that strong of reads.  That could be tied to his general day1 playstyle.  I think his towny contributions in day2 outweigh these, and I'm leaning town for now.  This may change as I verify someof the unverified statements from Robz (differences in day2 lurkers, yuma/Voltgloss-lynch, mail-mi and his Jimmm lynching)

[yuma]

Not to be too nitpicky, but I did do this before you:

I ultimately found that the reactions were all so similar (with very few expections) that there wasn't very much to get out of it. I still maintain that. Nearly every player was basically saying "OMG! Vote!" It is hard to differentiate mafia from town when that is all you have to work with.

To be honest I had a really hard time reading your wagon analysis previously. And I had a hard time reading this most recent post... I remember you saying in the past that effective posts are ones that are concise and clear. I certainly appreciate the effort, but I am having a hard time getting to what you ultimately say in these... Perhaps players have similar complaints from me (if so let me know because obviously I want to be understood and clear)

[shraeye]

Not to be too nitpicky, but I did do this before you:

I ultimately found that the reactions were all so similar (with very few expections) that there wasn't very much to get out of it. I still maintain that. Nearly every player was basically saying "OMG! Vote!" It is hard to differentiate mafia from town when that is all you have to work with.

To be honest I had a really hard time reading your wagon analysis previously. And I had a hard time reading this most recent post... I remember you saying in the past that effective posts are ones that are concise and clear. I certainly appreciate the effort, but I am having a hard time getting to what you ultimately say in these... Perhaps players have similar complaints from me (if so let me know because obviously I want to be understood and clear)

Yeah, I read that, but basically it looked like you lumped a lot of players into one pool "Hey everyone said OMG wow, except me" and didn't try to see any nuances.  I took your post more of a "see there's nothing to be gained" instead of a genuine attempt to analyze thigns.

For instance, liopoil had a lot of interactions that gave me a large townread.  But you still group him in with the OMGwow-ers.

[yuma]

Not to be too nitpicky, but I did do this before you:

I ultimately found that the reactions were all so similar (with very few expections) that there wasn't very much to get out of it. I still maintain that. Nearly every player was basically saying "OMG! Vote!" It is hard to differentiate mafia from town when that is all you have to work with.

To be honest I had a really hard time reading your wagon analysis previously. And I had a hard time reading this most recent post... I remember you saying in the past that effective posts are ones that are concise and clear. I certainly appreciate the effort, but I am having a hard time getting to what you ultimately say in these... Perhaps players have similar complaints from me (if so let me know because obviously I want to be understood and clear)

Yeah, I read that, but basically it looked like you lumped a lot of players into one pool "Hey everyone said OMG wow, except me" and didn't try to see any nuances.  I took your post more of a "see there's nothing to be gained" instead of a genuine attempt to analyze thigns.

For instance, liopoil had a lot of interactions that gave me a large townread.  But you still group him in with the OMGwow-ers.

Ok. Well that is how I felt, and still feel about it. So you disagree with my analysis, but you can't say no one yet back and looked at it. I did. You are free to look for the nuances. I think scum hunting else where is a more effective use of my time. But don't say my post wasn't genuine. It was certainly genuine.

[nkirbit]

#784(link) Robz picks nkirbit because he appears to be avoiding “heavy-lurking” but in actuality isn’t contributing much
I haven’t reread nkirbit to verify this, but if it’s true, townpoints again to Robz for differentiating between “being away” and “scummy lurking”

Re-read my early day2.  I wasn't "scummy lurking".  I literally posted immediately after the opening of the day, and then not again for four days.  Zero posts.  Nothing.  That's not scummy lurking, and contributing minimally to avoid suspicion, as Robz claimed, that's a player who is busy and not paying attention to the game, and I find Robz very scummy for the mis-categorization because it seems like he started with the answer and tried to find evidence.

He surely didn't start with the evidence and then get the scumread, because his evidence is false and not there.

[nkirbit]

I think that Lio's actions today are very scummy.  Right now the two most viable wagons are myself and Robz, and Lio has

1)  Positioned himself on the wagon less likely to go through (Robz).
2)  Is not voting for me, but hasn't spoken up in my defense.  In fact, on the course we're currently going, it's entirely possible that I will be lynched before Lio even addresses any of the cases against me.

It looks like he's not trying to stop my lynch going through, but doesn't want to get his hands dirty, and if Robz is town, keep the lynch discussion to two town members as long as possible.  Even if Robz is scum, it's possible that Lio's on the other scum team.

It reminds me of how our scumteam positioned ourselves Day1 in clue.  I positioned myself on Chairs that game because I didn't want to be on Voltaire because I knew he was the likely lynch and wanted to be off wagon when he flipped scum, and knew that my momentum wasn't really needed.  And even if Chairs went through, it was not horrible, since it was still a lynch that wasn't on my team.  I think that's quite possibly what Lio is doing here.

[nkirbit]

I think my earlier accusation of Yuma was perhaps due to frustration.  While I'm less sure he's town here than I was sure of his townness in similar circumstances in B2B, he does have a lot of similarities to that game.

I am still suspicious of Robz, and am getting more suspicious of Lio the more I consider how little he has actually discussed what's going on today.  If anyone fits Robz's acti-lurker description, I think it's him, considering he has yet to even acknowledge that there's a player who has been sitting at L-1 for a while.

[nkirbit]

To be fair, I guess Lio hasn't actually posted since that point, so it's possible he has yet to check on the thread.  I guess I do have to give him the benefit of doubt there.

[Robz888]

To be fair, I guess Lio hasn't actually posted since that point, so it's possible he has yet to check on the thread.  I guess I do have to give him the benefit of doubt there.

Which is the defense you made when I accused you of that!

[Robz888]

That said, I agree with you about lio.

What is giving me pause about you, is that you are flailing so wildly in the face of lynch (not certain lynch, but not unlikely lynch either), and I sort of associate that with town more than scum.

[liopoil]

Well, I don't have a strong feeling on the nkirbit case. I'm not totally convinced by it, for sure, but well, he could be scum, probably more likely  than the average player too. I think robz is more likely to be scum. One reservation I have is that I think his frustration to the case reads more like Harry Potter mafia.

[nkirbit]

To be fair, I guess Lio hasn't actually posted since that point, so it's possible he has yet to check on the thread.  I guess I do have to give him the benefit of doubt there.

Which is the defense you made when I accused you of that!

Yeah, I know.  This is one of the unfortunate truths about playing this game online:  We need to judge others by their actions, but it's often hard to tell whether someone is actually there and is choosing not to post, or just isn't there.

Lio did post yesterday, after the point where Robz, Yuma, and Mail-Mi were all voting for me, so he did decline to comment on the wagon on a player who had three votes on him at the time of his posts, at the very least.  Maybe I wasn't L-1, but that's a serious wagon he ignored.

[nkirbit]

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

Well, this is exactly what Lio did here, haha.  Showed up to explain himself the instant some pressure was thrown his way.

I know that's what Voltaire accused me of doing, but I do maintain there's a difference, because I had specifically said the day before I came back to activity that I would do so the next day.  But Lio made no such promise.

Vote: Liopoil

[Robz888]

Well, I don't have a strong feeling on the nkirbit case. I'm not totally convinced by it, for sure, but well, he could be scum, probably more likely  than the average player too. I think robz is more likely to be scum. One reservation I have is that I think his frustration to the case reads more like Harry Potter mafia.

This does strike me as a "too little too late" sort of appearance.

Okay, I'm momentarily swayed. Vote: liopoil

[liopoil]

I did notice the wagon on nkirbit yesterday, and did not comment. I did not have much to say about it. He isn't my top choice for a lynch, so I gave an alternative.

I mean, yes, I did just pop in right now right when you guys were talking about how I hadn't said anything. well, there was no need for what I thought about it to be heard until now, when you are clearly wondering.

[Eevee]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

[liopoil]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

I think that's a bit of a stretch there...

[Voltaire]

unvote I am no longer sure about what's going on here - I need to make a re-read when I have more time.

[Robz888]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

Does it?

[Robz888]

Guys, I locked the thread by accident! So, so sorry. Carry on!

[yuma]

Guys, I locked the thread by accident! So, so sorry. Carry on!

No prob. Figured it was some sort of mistake.

[yuma]

Nkirbit, I'm perplexed.

Do you actually find me and yuma scummy for coming after you? Or is this just frsutration?

I literally mean what I said.

Oh....

I think my earlier accusation of Yuma was perhaps due to frustration.  While I'm less sure he's town here than I was sure of his townness in similar circumstances in B2B, he does have a lot of similarities to that game.

I am still suspicious of Robz, and am getting more suspicious of Lio the more I consider how little he has actually discussed what's going on today.  If anyone fits Robz's acti-lurker description, I think it's him, considering he has yet to even acknowledge that there's a player who has been sitting at L-1 for a while.

[Robz888]

^Ha! Good catch.

The question is: Is he swinging from extreme to extreme because he just really doesn't want to be lynched, and is pursuing whatever survival policy is viable, or is he inconsistent because he's scum? It's a tough qustion, I think.

[yuma]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

I think that's a bit of a stretch there...

I agree. I was waiting to see if someone would make that sort of response. It isn't my favorite and is kinda scummy because it is just so easy for mafia to make that sort of accusation.

[Archetype]

Guys, I locked the thread by accident! So, so sorry. Carry on!

Robz has been modkilled.

I'm joking Robz. It's all good.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.2

nkirbit (2) yuma, mail-mi
Robz888 (2) liopoil, Eevee
liopoil (2) nkirbit, Robz888

Not Voting (3) shraeye, Jorbles, Voltaire

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day ends on August 26th.

[yuma]

Day ends on August 26th.

I should mention that this is my wife's due date. As such I may be gone at a moment's notice. I will certainly do my best to let you guys know when that happens (if in the unlikely situation where I can't post please either just assume that is where I am, or feel free to replace me if it comes to that but I don't think it will). As such I am also going to try to keep my vote somewhere throughout the rest of today and do my best to help town toward a correct lynch.

I will from there do my best to stay as active as I can but hope you will all understand that my availability will likely decrease from that point onward.

[liopoil]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

I think that's a bit of a stretch there...

I agree. I was waiting to see if someone would make that sort of response. It isn't my favorite and is kinda scummy because it is just so easy for mafia to make that sort of accusation.

wait, who are you saying is scummy, me or eevee? saying it's a bit of a stretch is an easy accusation too...

[yuma]

I should be voting for Robz!

Robz, no thoughts on my suspicion on you?

Not really, other than perhaps you really should know better. I think you sort of decided on a whim that I was suspicious, and maintaining that suspicion has been sort of like a default easy thing to do. I don't feel threatened by it.

So only cases you feel threatened with are important to you? Oh boy, that sounds an awful lot like someone who isn't really interested in figuring out my alignment.. like mafia who knows it's almost always going to be town?

I think that's a bit of a stretch there...

I agree. I was waiting to see if someone would make that sort of response. It isn't my favorite and is kinda scummy because it is just so easy for mafia to make that sort of accusation.

wait, who are you saying is scummy, me or eevee? saying it's a bit of a stretch is an easy accusation too...

eevee.

When I saw Robz make that post I thought to myself "someone is going to jump on that. Odds are that the person who does is scum." The person who did was Eevee and I find him scummier for it. This of course assumes that Robz is town, which is a pretty big assumption I admit.

[Voltaire]

I think that Lio's actions today are very scummy.  Right now the two most viable wagons are myself and Robz, and Lio has

1)  Positioned himself on the wagon less likely to go through (Robz).
2)  Is not voting for me, but hasn't spoken up in my defense.  In fact, on the course we're currently going, it's entirely possible that I will be lynched before Lio even addresses any of the cases against me.

It looks like he's not trying to stop my lynch going through, but doesn't want to get his hands dirty, and if Robz is town, keep the lynch discussion to two town members as long as possible.  Even if Robz is scum, it's possible that Lio's on the other scum team.

It reminds me of how our scumteam positioned ourselves Day1 in clue.  I positioned myself on Chairs that game because I didn't want to be on Voltaire because I knew he was the likely lynch and wanted to be off wagon when he flipped scum, and knew that my momentum wasn't really needed.  And even if Chairs went through, it was not horrible, since it was still a lynch that wasn't on my team.  I think that's quite possibly what Lio is doing here.

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

Well, this is exactly what Lio did here, haha.  Showed up to explain himself the instant some pressure was thrown his way.

I know that's what Voltaire accused me of doing, but I do maintain there's a difference, because I had specifically said the day before I came back to activity that I would do so the next day.  But Lio made no such promise.

Vote: Liopoil

The reason I unvoted last night was these posts. I found nkirbit's case on lio strong enough that I didn't want to risk someone hammering nkirbit until I had a chance to look it over properly, and it was late last night.

I went back and re-read lio's case on Robz, and I don't like it. Robz's style is rapid-fire posts, so that's a null tell. On the other hand, lio's Robz suspicion is consistent. Lio has only been on Robz today, but I read his work as valid scumhunting where I come to a different conclusion. And I don't hold him not speaking up about nkirbit against him. It is completely reasonable not to defend a null read.

I still want to vote: nkirbit. The D1 stuff is significant, and so are the votes on yuma and Robz.

[Voltaire]

wait, who are you saying is scummy, me or eevee? saying it's a bit of a stretch is an easy accusation too...

eevee.

When I saw Robz make that post I thought to myself "someone is going to jump on that. Odds are that the person who does is scum." The person who did was Eevee and I find him scummier for it. This of course assumes that Robz is town, which is a pretty big assumption I admit.

I agree that Eevee's point is weak, but I don't think it's scummy - Robz is hard to read and I think Eevee is biased, like I am with you, yuma. And Eevee too, for that matter.

[shraeye]

#134 (link) Starts off not wanting to claim right away because thinks we need the vig

#182 makes a case to avoid claiming, saying that PRs becoming ICs is the power of the claim.  And then he says that PRs are unlynchable anyway, because they can claim at L-1.  This is only true for day1, however.  When Umbrage scolds him for not paying attention to the setup, liopoil gets huffy because he was only talking about day1 apparently, but wanted PRs to get some utility.  Actually, this is a really hard post to parse.

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

scumpoints here.  I am not sure what liopoil is talking about.  Liopoil is saying that the PRs will only be helpful on D2, but before he was talking about them as ICs.  I don’t see how they “don’t’ help us D1” if you want to use them as ICs

#222 liopoil also opposes VGs 3-claim plan

#387 liopoil says Vig should shoot every night; also says regarding UoS’s claim “First glance, I believe him” though before he was talking about PRs being ICs.

#405 (link)
 post about who has the fewest posts.  At this point he had 8 and Eevee/Robz had 6/5 by comparison

#451(link) V/LA ends and he promises to read stuff now and catch up.


#452 Voltgloss asks if UoS should reveal his role, and liopoil thinks he should claim Vig/not-vig
where did this idea go when chairs took over?  It seems that this would have been a better option, though I’m not totally sure

#479 finds ash scummy because he’s not sure how not posting could be helping town’s wincon

#497 (link)
he has a really hard time reading mail-mi, chalking successful mail-mi lynches to pure coincidence that THAT time mail-mi happened to be scum.  Liopoil pushes lynching ashersky if he doesn’t post

#498

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

liopoil:  say UoS is the Roleblocker.  Why do you think it would be better for the Town if he claims "not vig" instead of claiming "roleblocker?" 

hmmm. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of "claiming is a bad idea unless he's the vig", but he already claimed... so meh. okay, fullclaiming makes sense to me. I doubt he is scum, but if he is, making him fullclaim will catch him, while hardly helping scum at all if he's town. also, it prevents fakeclaims if he is NKed.

one thing I wasn't totally aware of: if we lynch scum, we find out the alignments of the players they have killed. so that makes scum fakeclaim slightly less viable, because they could get caught when we lynch their buddy.

I guess this was the fate of the vig/not-vig claim.  Again, liopoil inserts the seed of doubt into UoS’s claim saying “I doubt he is, but IF he is…”  This is rather odd given liopoil’s earlier stance of “only PRs would claim PRs, they are basically our ICs”.  Also, when he’s talking about finding alignment of players who scum have killed, he is completely disregarding the SK, who has no partners.  I think this could be telling, and that liopoil has a high chance of being the SK.

#573-578 the next post from liopoil is the set about Voltgloss’s slip.  He points out the timestamp discrepancy, and also thinks that Voltgloss’s defense sounded very suspicious.  He states intent to vote, but wants to check how many votes there are first.

#601 liopoil unvotes because voltgloss makes the tag-error in the QT.  The rest of liopoil’s day1 posts are very throw-away and null-readish.  Stating that chairs was online, wanting to wait for UoS before ending the day, etc.

DAY2

#693

So thoughts? It's not surprising that chairs/UoS was shot.

I'm going to put forward that I think ashersky was shot because he came forward with the PR plan. Scum often PR hunt by looking to see who talk most about PR theory.

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

I decided I didn't think the slip meant anything even before yuma did. you can say that we wanted towncred for being off wagon because we thought it would go through anyway... but meh.

pretty scummy; he’s wanting credit for not believing the slip, when he really wasn’t trying to convince anybody of Voltgloss’s innocence on the previous day.  Yuma, on the other hand, was trying to convince people that it was a bad lynch.  Here is liopoil’s unvote from the previous day, the rhetoric is so very…”we’ll you lynch him, but I don’t want to be a part of it”

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

#732

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

...coming back to this...

not really sold on the robz bit, that doesn't seem like much. I agree with ash-yuma being town-town. shraeye? no idea, I should look at his case again. I remember I didn't like it, but dunno if it was scummy or not.

If liopoil didn’t like my case yesterday, than that meant that he was voting for Voltgloss purely over the slip (although he recanted that).  This is actually exactly what I was looking for when going through the reactions to Voltgloss’s slip-lynch, was somebody who didn’t believe the case, but was sold based on the slip.  I didn’t see this before, because I only analyzed up to the end of Day1. Scummy for sure.

#806 liopoil’s posting again slows down, and here he makes a case on Robz.  One point stands out to me, the rest of the case looks fairly strechy, and very uninteresting

- so many of his post are double posts, a continuation of what he said in his most recent post. I can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in the last post, but still. I don't really believe that scum inflate their post counts, but if they ever do, this is it.

This point takes something that is actually towny, and stretches it into being another “reason” that Robz is scum.  I think that the reason that mafia have low post counts is because they like to keep all their posts very concise, and edit them for maximum clarity.  I think it’s much more towny to post something, realize it’s slightly incomplete, then post addendums and such.  Scum is much more likely to have put full thought into their post the first time around, and posted a nice pretty thing with no omissions at all.
So seriously? You’re trying to zing Robz for inflating his postcount?  Robz is nowhere near the bottom, so he’s not “racing to keep his count up”.  Nobody really looks at post counts anymore as indicative of anything (or at least, I don’t think they should) unless the postcount is super-extreme.  This is a really scummy point to have made

#895 (link)
Paranoia-post.  I think it’s pretty clear what Yuma is talking about, and that he’s finding Eevee scummy.

summary
Liopoil had one of the more thought-out reactions to the Volt-slip but a day2 post of his showed that initially he was exactly one of the people who thought nothing of the case, but then jumped on the tag-slip (at least initially).  Looking through his day2 posts, I find multiple scummy posts, and some quite scummy.  His case on Robz is just terrible.  I would be very very fine with lynching liopoil today.

[liopoil]

- so many of his post are double posts, a continuation of what he said in his most recent post. I can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in the last post, but still. I don't really believe that scum inflate their post counts, but if they ever do, this is it.

This point takes something that is actually towny, and stretches it into being another “reason” that Robz is scum.  I think that the reason that mafia have low post counts is because they like to keep all their posts very concise, and edit them for maximum clarity.  I think it’s much more towny to post something, realize it’s slightly incomplete, then post addendums and such.  Scum is much more likely to have put full thought into their post the first time around, and posted a nice pretty thing with no omissions at all.
So seriously? You’re trying to zing Robz for inflating his postcount?  Robz is nowhere near the bottom, so he’s not “racing to keep his count up”.  Nobody really looks at post counts anymore as indicative of anything (or at least, I don’t think they should) unless the postcount is super-extreme.  This is a really scummy point to have made

It wasn't meant to be a point why he is scum, that's pretty null, because like I said, I don't really believe scum inflate their post counts, and can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in their last post and adding it on. I do that sometimes.

[shraeye]

If it's not a point about why he's scum, why are you charging the language up like that?

"I can totally see anyone...BUT STILL"

"I don't really believe that scum inflate their...BUT IF THEY EVER DO, THIS IS IT"

[Jorbles]

Actually that's a good point, if you don't think scum do something, why include it in a case?

[liopoil]

it's not a case, It was a re-read. I included everything that I found of interest.

[Jorbles]

I see that now (clicked through to the full quote). It does read like a case though since you voted for him based on the information in that post. Anyhow vote: Robz

The only reason I didn't before is that I didn't want to have two people at L-1. I find it quite scummy that he immediately dismissed Eevee's request for him to address the case on him, and ignored it when I also asked him to. Trying to distract from a case on yourself with other cases is scummy IMHO.

[Voltaire]

mail-mi, can you be specific on why you're voting nkirbit?

[yuma]

So I came on early to take a closer look at both the cases presented against lio and robz and see how they stood in comparison with each other and how I feel about nkirbit. But... the forum was down. So that is going to get postponed until later. But on the positive side I got a whole lot of house chores done. The wife is going to be very pleased I think...

[shraeye]

sorry for the format weirdness, I was in the middle of doing this when the forums went down, so started working off my PrintPage tab

#???Had a townread on ash from his claim; Volt sees this as overeager town. Voltaire pushes back against the nkirbit votes, but quote the wrong thing.  Doesn’t want random lynch.
I think that Voltaire pushing back immediately against nkirbit’s votes, when the game was still super-fresh is worth noting.  I think this does make scumnkirbit => scumVoltaire, as I could see newbie scum getting jumpy right out of the gates if heat hits their partner.

# 8/8 11:34am still thinks his point about nkirbit is worth defending nkirbit; questions if Voltgloss has thought about this point.
if he’s still pushing it, then possibly he is just defending his townreads.  If nkirbit were his partner, I bet there was some chiding in the QT after the first defense.

#8/8 12:29pm Voltaire zings me for calling him/nkirbit a scumteam; also votes for liopoil for his overreaction when Umbrage voted him for not paying attention to the setup.
Hmmm, interesting bit about Voltaire/nkirbit, and actually this makes me want to link them up again.  As for liopoil, this is a good catch, that was a pretty overstated reaction to Umbrage.

#8/8 12:43pm Voltaire sums up his reads so far; townreads on ash, voltgloss, UoS for their plans, and scumread on liopoil for his reaction.

#8/8 3:14pm Voltaire reacts to Yuma, who said that volt’s vote on liopoil was unwarranted.  Also, Yuma brought up that Voltaire took one of nkirbit’s quotes out of context and Yuma thinks jVoltaire is making fake reads.  Voltaire counters that he’s encouraging pro-town behavior, but doesn’t find nkirbit scummy
indeed, Voltaire was the one defending nkirbit from his voters

#8/8 3:36pm Yuma and Voltaire have a discussion about whether volt calling nkirbit’s actions weird meant anything as far as scumminess go.  I think that this got resolved when Voltaire clarified his position here.

#8/8 4:34pm asks Umbrage about a post talking about switching to vote for somebody.
questions about clarification be pro-town

#8/9 10:05am Voltaire dislikes the ash votes; his reads have updated, and he now finds Yuma suspicious for having purposely provoked ashersky.  Also, Voltaire finds nkirbit scummy for ducking for cover behind Robz’s ash-vote; this change in reads is brought on by nkirbit using a different reason to explain his original vote (clarified by Volt in #345).  He implores mail-mi to do something more this game, asks me where my reads actually stand, and points out that lio has done nothing but theory talk.
I don’t think that Yuma prodding ashersky really warrants Yuma-alarms going off, I don’t understand why Yuma is scummier than only contribute to theory-talk liopoil at this point for Voltaire.  Additionally, his defense of ash looks a lot like his defense of nkirbit before (not in content, but in style).  I think this lessons the volt/nkirbit link, as he’s showing something similar with ashersky as well.

#338 Finds UoS towny for his OMGUS vote.
I think there is validity here; UoS didn’t have an unreasoned OMGUS vote, and frankly it’s so well known that OMGUS is ‘scummy’ that I actually don’t think it is scummy even more.  Townpoints to Voltaire for thinking deeply

#351 asks about my read on him, because I called himnkirbit’s partner before.  Shows a bit of paranoia but also just following up on his earlier question,
small scumpoints.

#462 after catching up over the weekend, Voltaire posts his read lists, which pretty much follow what he’s been saying in thread except for Yuma who is in the “will not lynch” category.  I’m not sure when he moved
Voltaire, do you remember your thoughts on Yuma around this time? scumpoints for this flip.

#467

I actually feel like ash is fairly easy to catch when scum (or at least has been for me so far). I can state that when he's scum his fakecases tend to be faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake and I haven't seen that yet. I have no idea what he's doing in this game and I originally thought he was being silly with yuma but maybe he really is being petulant?

I asked him about this at the time, but at this point ash hadn’t made any cases, so if you expect to catch scumash by his fake-cases, I would think that your read would be fairly null until a case was made by him and you could assess it’s fakeness.  At the time his response was

You don't find ash scummy because none of his cases have felt super-ultra-fake?  But ash hasn't made any cases, bad or good...how can that make you think he's town, unless your idea of ash's town-meta is that his cases look invisible?

You can phrase it that way if you want. I am not seeing many people agree with me though.

I still don’t understand what Voltaire means by this.  Oh, while reading I found his answer in #516 (the second point there). His read on ash is a holdover from his pre-V/LA time when ash was being helpful with plans and whatnot.

#487 Voltaire reiterates that mail-mi is magnifying his regular suspicious self 1000 times over, and wonders (in a previous post) why nobody is joining him.

#514 Voltaire thinks me not contributing my reads is scummy.
I always push for the person who I’m finding the scummiest, and I’m usually clear enough that people know who else I’m interested in lynching.  I feel like posting comprehensive “rank ‘em all” reads on day1 really help scum more than town.

#537 Here Voltaire talks to ashersky, explaining why no-lynch is a bad idea.  He also responds to ash’s cases, where ash thought Voltgloss was SK, and Yuma was mafia.   Voltaire sees voltgloss’s actions as protown, and is trying to figure out why Yuma not reacting to ash being gone (which apparently isn’t true) leads to such a strong scumread that ash is looking for yuma’s partners.

#568 Voltaire reacts to Voltgloss’s tag-slip; in #630 he supports the reactions that this slip has made.
Voltaire, what do you make of those reactions now?

Day2
#729 Voltaire reacts to yuma’s IToldYouSo stance, and finds it scummy.
null read for now, I have to read this in depth myself, Yuma will be my next reread

#748 Voltaire makes an analysis of the wagon and thinks we should be hunting on-wagon for scum, it seems

#752 mail-mi continues to be away, and Voltaire draws a comparison with mail-mi in HP, where he was scum (the comparison was not paying attention to # of votes)

#767 in a discussion with Jorbles, Voltaire thinks that looking off wagon may be more useful percentage-wise. given the nature of the wagon, I think people should look at how the wagon built (as I did) and what people on/off were actually saying.  I don’t think this is a classic “are they on or off” situation 
In #773, Volt says that he thinks the SK is probably on-wagon.

#800 Voltaire does a reread of nkirbit and finds him scummy for the Robz vote-cover from before, and also a lie about UoS’s play that went unresolved.  He looks at how nkiribt has been contributing today, and says he’s been actilurking.  I’m not sure if that’s true or not.  He was worried about mail-mi (his other scumread) voting for nkirbit as well.  But then he remembered that there is SK AND mafia.
townread for forgetting about having SK as well, I think we get locked into this “search for scumteam” mentality, and the players who are most likely to differentiate are those who are worried about the *other* team.

#803 he tries to pin down eevee’s thoughts on Robz.

#833 he is interested in yuma’s mirroring concept, but accuses Yuma of distorting the situation as well.  Or possibly not?  I’m confused.  Read 833-835 if you want to sort that out. Oooooh, in #838 he clarifies that he meant “nkirbit” when he said “you”.

#864 says nkirbit is downplaying/ignoring other cases on him and focusing on yuma’s mirroring argument.

#897 looks into nkirbit’s liopoil suspicions; disagrees with the conclusion.

summary
Very analytical and asking players a lot of questions for clarification.  I like that.  He’s been up and down though, some things seem quite towny, and others are suspicious. Overall, there are more towny things.  He has also felt pretty even all game to me, instead of acting super different when he's being suspected, when he's pushing hard for a lynch, or when he's building cases.  I think that even temperament in changing situations is townish.

[shraeye]

ugh, that excercise has taken too long.  Comments/reactions/angry-yelling appreciated on those taht I did.

I'm just going to do a personal read of the rest of the players instead of posting huge-blocks of text for y'all to skip.

[mail-mi]

mail-mi, can you be specific on why you're voting nkirbit?

I thought nkirbit was acti-lurking, but since he came out and explained it, I find it a good explanation. unvote.

I think I'll go reread liopoil.

[mail-mi]

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

[Voltaire]

Can we get a vote count please?

We've died out again. The weekend is coming, and the deadline is the end of the day on Monday.

shraeye, rank your scum reads. You're throwing up long posts that have found (unless I've missed something) the same scummy players as everyone else.

Voltaire, do you remember your thoughts on Yuma around this time? scumpoints for this flip.

This is simply following the tried-and-true (ie never when I've been in games) Robz plan of don't lynch yuma D1 just wait and see how long he lives scumtell. I did this in HP with yuma too.

We have three mini-wagons. nkirbit got to L-1 and slowly evaporated, Robz has slowly gained momentum, and lio happened pretty quickly after nkirbit went away. I'm trying to think about what scum would do in this situation, depending on the alignment of each wagon. Unfortunately it's not really helping.

[yuma]

Vote Count yuma.1

nkirbit (2) yuma, Voltaire
Robz888 (3) liopoil, Eevee, Jorbles (L-2)
liopoil (3) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi (L-2)

Not Voting (1) shraeye

[yuma]

So I guess I need to figure out where I stand on both Robz and liopoil at this point. The nkirbit wagon has died off a bit. I think that is unfortunate, but I am not going to be bullheaded and insist on lynching him... that just isn't useful.

Cases, votes and rereads on lio can be found:

me on lio:

= only reread day1, null because of day1 vla, but noted town!lio votes less. Said if he didn't pick up participation would automatically be more suspicious.

jorbles on lio:

=(Jorbles this post looks incomplete. You start of with a "then he disappears...." like there was supposed to be something above it. I looked for posts above it where you read lio and couldn't really see anything. Any idea what happened here?) a null day1 read, somethings townie, something scummy.

nkirbit on lio:

=specifically on lio for day2 behavior: position on wagon less likely to go through (robz... over nkirbit); isn't voting for nkirbit, but hasn't defended or commented on the wagon.

robz on lio:

=votes after lio came and commented saying "too little to late appearance"

shraeye on lio:

=huge reread: multiple points on him being scummy. (I finally read all the way through this and shraeye comes up with some really good stuff that I hadn't noticed... not defending volt, but just not being part of it, appearing to be sold only on the slip part, etc) says he would be willing to vote for lio.

mail-mi on lio:

=sheep

Cases and rereads on robz can be found:

yuma on robz (via voltgloss):

=didn't think volt's case was overly significant, but actually found a post from robz reacting to be pretty townie

lio on robz:

=his case and vote. I agree with shraeye that it is pretty terrible. I don't see anything in there.

nkirbit on robz:

=partially due to volt's case (haven't seen an actual analysis of this from nkirbit, just saying it was there and must be worthwhile?) and for accusing of acti-lurking when he was just lurking

nkiribt on robz again:

=clarification of the acti-lurking stuff

shraeye on robz:

=shraeye's huge reread: leaning town. handful of scummy things pointed out. Wants to verify some stuff. Did you shraeye? I think the only thing incorrect here is that nkirbit wasn't truly acti-lurking like robz implied.

jorbles on robz:

=votes for ignoring and dismissing eevee's request to address the case on him.

So that is a compilation of the cases/reads/votes on lio and robz. Now what do I think?

I think the better case is on liopoil. I do like what shraeye found in regard to lio's response to voltgloss's slip (I acknowledge that I may have been wrong here, but I did at one point say that we should look to see who responded solely to the slip and not the case so thanks for following up on that) and both instances where liopoil distances himself from a wagon but doesn't defend it (voltgloss day1 and nkirbit day2) and his case on Robz while ignoring the case on nkirbit.

But mostly I don't get the votes on Robz. Really the only thing that is alarming is the "acti-lurking allegation that appears to be false." everything else... lio's case, voltgloss's case and even jorbles finding robz suspicious for not reacting to eevee's request (I find that just to be classic robz) lacking.

At this point I would be willing to vote liopoil over Robz. Way over Robz. I would put him about square even with nkirbit. I am also going to mention how absent eevee has been from this post... voltaire as well interestingly (mail-mi sheeped, but that is about it)... Let me go through all of their posts to make sure I didn't miss something from each of them.

Found this from voltaire on both lio and robz:

basically saying that he finds nkirbit to be scummier than both these two wagons.

And here is Eevee's reaction to robz's not reacting to eevee's request for completeness:

And another by Eevee on robz:

and another before that... somehow missed a bunch from eevee here... sorry!

But also noticed this, which was post immediately before the above:

.. I'm in the middle or reading shraeye's megapost and something came up. I'll be finishing this up in a couple of hours with my updated reads and a vote. Cliffhanger!

Where is the vote at eevee? Actually Archetype I don't think eevee ever actually voted for robz. I just went back through all his posts and saw no vote... So I believe the latest vote count is wrong despite eevee saying that he should be voting for robz

anyways... the additional quotes don't really change where I stand but simply clarify that both voltaire and eevee have been more involved on both robz/lio than I initially thought.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.2

nkirbit (2) yuma, Voltaire
Robz888 (2) liopoil, Jorbles
liopoil (3) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi

Not Voting (2) shraeye, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day will end August 26th

[yuma]

Actually Archetype I don't think eevee ever actually voted for robz. I just went back through all his posts and saw no vote... So I believe the latest vote count is wrong despite eevee saying that he should be voting for robz

[Archetype]

Actually Archetype I don't think eevee ever actually voted for robz. I just went back through all his posts and saw no vote... So I believe the latest vote count is wrong despite eevee saying that he should be voting for robz

That'll teach me to never trust a gambler...

Ok, I'll change it.

[nkirbit]

Okay, so I'm going to re-read Ashersky.  We know why Chairs was killed, since he was the cop, but don't exactly know why Ashersky was killed.  As I see it, there are two possibilities:

1)  One of the scum teams thought he was on the other scum-team.  This very well could be the case, but I'm going to consider it all that much.  Even if it is true, I'm not exactly sure what we can gain from this analysis, whereas I think number two may be helpful.

2)  One of the scum teams thought he was a dangerous town member to have alive.  This is also possible, and something that I'm going to look at.

3)  There are a couple other possibilities for why he was killed.  Scum could have been PR hunting, but I don't think he would lie about his VT claim were he town.  Especially since he claimed a name that could have been counterclaimed had he been lying.  Also, he assuredly wasn't killed because he was considered a VT, or was unlynchable.. I just don't think that was the case.  So I'm going to focus on #2.

--------------------------

Ash initially starts out encouraging a massclaim, and claims himself.  Null for this sort of analysis, as it doesn't tell us anything about his relationships with other players.

He really says nothing about any other players at all before his disappearance.

Ashersky drew some suspicion for his plan, from myself, Robz, and Yuma.  Part of it was because of his massclaim, Yuma's suspicion was because he felt like Ash was trying too hard to be town!Ash, Robz didn't like his "Claim now!" plan.  Various reasons, but those are the three legitimately suspicious of Ash.

Ash comes back and says, "Yuma is clearly scum here!  99% sure!"  He says that Yuma's cases are flawed, his reads are too strong for Day1.  But his case never gets pushed at all because we get derailed by Voltgloss's "slip".

 He had voted Robz early for disagreements on theory, but I don't find this useful, as the voted seemed to be for Robz saying that town never won multiball.. who cares?  I don't find that scummy or towny in the least bit.

So slight scum points to Yuma for this, as he was Ash's stated top scumread, and a very high one (99%!).  I will keep this in mind, and would be okay with a Yuma lynch, but much prefer a Lio lynch at this point.  But ultimately, I don't think we learned that much from this (and unfortunately, the Voltgloss lynch is a major reason why.  It really did kill wagon analysis.. although I still think it was the correct call given what we knew).

[Voltaire]

Ash comes back and says, "Yuma is clearly scum here!  99% sure!"  He says that Yuma's cases are flawed, his reads are too strong for Day1.  But his case never gets pushed at all because we get derailed by Voltgloss's "slip".
[snip]
So slight scum points to Yuma for this, as he was Ash's stated top scumread, and a very high one (99%!).  I will keep this in mind, and would be okay with a Yuma lynch, but much prefer a Lio lynch at this point.

Really? Did we learn nothing from Clue?

[nkirbit]

I won't value Ashersky's read on Yuma terribly highly though, for a couple of reasons:

1)  It was a day1 read.  Especially given the wagons we had at that point, which were almost none, I think it's impossible to get that strong of a read on a player.  I don't know how strong Ash's read actually was on Yuma, but at the time it was posted, nothing could have happened that would make a read that strong.

2)  Ashersky has less information than the rest of us.  For example, I know that I am town, while Ashersky did not.  This means that I should value my reads somewhat higher than Ashersky's.

3)  We don't even know that Ashersky was town.  He could be mafia, or he could be the SK.  We don't know.  Given that, we should be wary about trusting his reads, as he could be scum trying to drive a mislynch.

So while I will keep Ash's read in mind, I really don't think we should be taking it into account more than what we have learned day2.

[nkirbit]

Ash comes back and says, "Yuma is clearly scum here!  99% sure!"  He says that Yuma's cases are flawed, his reads are too strong for Day1.  But his case never gets pushed at all because we get derailed by Voltgloss's "slip".
[snip]
So slight scum points to Yuma for this, as he was Ash's stated top scumread, and a very high one (99%!).  I will keep this in mind, and would be okay with a Yuma lynch, but much prefer a Lio lynch at this point.

Really? Did we learn nothing from Clue?

Haha.  I mean, there have been cases where dead townies have been spot on.  See lio saying, "If I'm the nightkill, please please lynch Yuma tomorrow" before he was NKed in Mean Girls.  They didn't kill Yuma, and he turned out to be scum!  So I think it is something that we should consider.  I know that mafia often NKs townies who are suspicious of them.. for example, that's why mafia killed Shraeye in Clue.  So while it's not great evidence, I do think that it's something that should be considered, but we have to keep in mind what we're looking at.

[Voltaire]

Actually, Vote: Yuma

Nkirbit, I'm perplexed.

Do you actually find me and yuma scummy for coming after you? Or is this just frsutration?

I literally mean what I said.

To elaborate Robz, I don't find you and Yuma scummy simply because you're coming after me.  I find you scummy because of the way you're doing it.

I think my earlier accusation of Yuma was perhaps due to frustration.

I will keep this in mind, and would be okay with a Yuma lynch, but much prefer a Lio lynch at this point.

Why have you gone back to your old opinion?

[nkirbit]

I would be okay with it.  As in, there are lunches I would definitely prefer to it, but lynches I would prefer it to.  I would put it behind both a robz and Lio lynch.

[Voltaire]

I would be okay with it.  As in, there are lunches I would definitely prefer to it, but lynches I would prefer it to.  I would put it behind both a robz and Lio lynch.

So why would you go for it at all? Is it based on ash's unknown case, or your frustration, or do you actually think you've spotted something scummy in yuma?

[nkirbit]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

[Voltaire]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

I want at least a good one-sentence preview now.

[yuma]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

I want at least a good one-sentence preview now.

so would I. To me it looks like nkirbit went and looked at ashersky with the express purpose of finding me scummy. His latest series of posts make me want to stay on him as opposed to moving to lio at this point.

[Voltaire]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

I want at least a good one-sentence preview now.

so would I. To me it looks like nkirbit went and looked at ashersky with the express purpose of finding me scummy. His latest series of posts make me want to stay on him as opposed to moving to lio at this point.

And I think he knows that Eevee and I are pre-disposed to find you (yuma) scummy.

[Voltaire]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

I want at least a good one-sentence preview now.

so would I. To me it looks like nkirbit went and looked at ashersky with the express purpose of finding me scummy. His latest series of posts make me want to stay on him as opposed to moving to lio at this point.

And I think he knows that Eevee and I are pre-disposed to find you (yuma) scummy.

ie I think he thinks it wouldn't be hard to create a yuma wagon.

[nkirbit]

I find him slightly scummy because I think he built his case on me with one premise being that I mirrored him, and I don't think that premise is true.  But I still find him less scummy than Lio and Robz.  I would rather lynch him than say, Shraeye or Jorbles, but he's only slightly scummy.

I am absolutely not trying to build a case on Yuma.  I re-read Ashersky because I said at the start of the day that I was going to and I think it's a good idea to do so.  One of the reasons that I think it's a good idea is that mafia choose their nightkills for a reason.  Had town re-read Eevee in Clue after he was night killed, perhaps they would have realized that we killed the largest proponent of the Ash-TA fight being town-vs-town because we wanted to make sure that town didn't realize that's what it was.

Ash's only real concrete view was his scumread on Yuma.  So I listed it.  I said that we should take it with a grain of salt, because of the reasons I listed.  And I do believe those reasons, and would absolutely not want to lynch Yuma solely because of that.

I still want to lynch Lio.

[nkirbit]

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

Since no one's discussed this, I just want to comment on how vague these accusations are.

1.  He's lurking.  About the easiest accusation to make towards someone.
2.  He's talking theory.  Probably the second easiest accusation to make towards someone.
3.  Lio made a case on someone?  Well, okay, if you think it's a bad case that's designed to create a mislynch and is distorting facts or something like that, that's a good reason to find someone scummy, but Mail-Mi's only stated reason is that Lio made a case that others liked.  That's not scummy in and of itself.
4.  His last stretch of posts seems scummy.  As vague as it gets.

If it was anyone other than mail-mi, I would find this post extremely scummy, but as is, I'm not entirely sure how I should be interpreting this.  Man, you're hard to read sometimes mail-mi!

[Robz888]

And mail-mi's point number 1 is... bad. Posting a lot in a scum qt would make Eevee MORE likely to be active in the thread, if anything.

[nkirbit]

And mail-mi's point number 1 is... bad. Posting a lot in a scum qt would make Eevee MORE likely to be active in the thread, if anything.

It's a case on Lio, not Eevee, FYI.  "Eeveen" is supposed to be "Even", I think.

[Voltaire]

Before nkirbit's latest, I was working on this write-up of who's voted for whom (this also includes non-votes like Eevee's "I should be voting here" or yuma's "I plan on switching to lio"). Though people have changed their minds throughout the course of the day, I'm hoping this says something about the odds we have 0/1/2/3 scum wagons. Note that these "votes" are not in order. Please let me know if I've missed something, it's entirely possible.

lio (5): Robz, mail-mi, nkirbit, shraeye, yuma
Robz (4): Jorbles, lio, nkirbit, Eevee
nkirbit (4): Robz, Voltaire, mail-mi, yuma
mail-mi (2): Voltaire, shraeye
yuma (1): nkirbit

PPE: You all know my opinions about mail-mi. Happy to have the lynch return there.

[Robz888]

And mail-mi's point number 1 is... bad. Posting a lot in a scum qt would make Eevee MORE likely to be active in the thread, if anything.

It's a case on Lio, not Eevee, FYI.  "Eeveen" is supposed to be "Even", I think.

Oh, thanks! Confusing. My point still stands though, only it's a silly accusation against liopoil, rather than Eevee.

[Voltaire]

If it was anyone other than mail-mi, I would find this post extremely scummy, but as is, I'm not entirely sure how I should be interpreting this.  Man, you're hard to read sometimes mail-mi!

Testing the waters. At this point I think I could happily lynch nkirbit or mail-mi.

[liopoil]

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

please tell me you didn't just go into that reread looking for an excuse to vote for me. because that's really what it looks like.

[nkirbit]

If Lio were to flip scum at some point, I would pick Voltaire as his likeliest partner.  Two reasons:

This post attempts to direct our lynches towards on-wagon people, away from Lio:

This post deflects the case on Lio, calling it good, but defends him in very vague terms that aren't explained well.  "His case is bad, but I feel like it's legitimate scumhunting" is an easy defense that doesn't actually need any substance to back it up.

I think his interactions with Lio are worth noting, and I want them out there.

[nkirbit]

I forgot to include the second post by Voltaire:

[nkirbit]

Want to lynch: Liopoil
Would lynch: Robz
Could lynch: Mail-Mi, Yuma, Voltaire
Don't want to lynch:  Jorbles, Shraeye, Eevee

[Voltaire]

This post deflects the case on Lio, calling it good, but defends him in very vague terms that aren't explained well.  "His case is bad, but I feel like it's legitimate scumhunting" is an easy defense that doesn't actually need any substance to back it up.

I found your points on lio compelling enough on first read I didn't want anything crazy to happen before I could give them a proper look. After I did, they were much less compelling. And everything since then has made me feel much better that I made the right call.

I want to lynch nkirbit most, followed by mail-mi.

[mail-mi]

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

please tell me you didn't just go into that reread looking for an excuse to vote for me. because that's really what it looks like.

Nope. I saw that a substantial wagon had formed on you, and I wanted to know why. I read the cases, and reread you, and found you scummy. I didn't include anything the cases already said (which was most of it.)

[Robz888]

Has Jorbles said anything in a million years?

Eevee is hardcore lurking... but I' having trouble putting myself in scum!Eevee's shoes: Reads PM. "I am scum! I am going to lurk like I have never lurked before." Doesn't seem like the course he would take.

[Voltaire]

I see that now (clicked through to the full quote). It does read like a case though since you voted for him based on the information in that post. Anyhow vote: Robz

The only reason I didn't before is that I didn't want to have two people at L-1. I find it quite scummy that he immediately dismissed Eevee's request for him to address the case on him, and ignored it when I also asked him to. Trying to distract from a case on yourself with other cases is scummy IMHO.

This is Jorble's last post. It's been > 24 hours.

I tend to agree with your thinking on Eevee, begrudgingly. But I don't think scum is going to truly lurk in this game.

[Voltaire]

Jorbles was online today. Can we get a prod on Jorbles, please?

Eevee is unfortunately V/LA until Sunday.

[mail-mi]

And mail-mi's point number 1 is... bad. Posting a lot in a scum qt would make Eevee MORE likely to be active in the thread, if anything.

It's a case on Lio, not Eevee, FYI.  "Eeveen" is supposed to be "Even", I think.

I accidentally typed that in, then decided to keep it for the pun.

[Archetype]

Jorbles was online today. Can we get a prod on Jorbles, please?

Sent.

[yuma]

so... bump?

I guess we are kinda waiting for the return of shraeye, jorbles (and eevee, although I know he is VLA, but he has been posting elsewhere online, but hasn't recast his vote on Robz?)

I don't think we can leave everything until Monday, that just spells out disaster.

As such I request a prod on shraeye and eevee. I understand that eevee is vla and shraeye hasn't been away that long, but I am starting to get worried that we are running out of time.

[Voltaire]

When people get back, please look at 921 and later between me and nkirbit. I feel it's pretty strong additional evidence he is scum.

[Jorbles]

I've been reading. The last thing I posted was a desire for Robz to respond to the case against him. Which I still want to hear.

I'll take a look at 921 onwards though.

[nkirbit]

When people get back, please look at 921 and later between me and nkirbit. I feel it's pretty strong additional evidence he is scum.

Would you mind being a little less vague so I have a chance to defend myself?

[nkirbit]

And I mean:  What exactly in that period is strong evidence that I'm scum?

[Jorbles]

Yep, I'd actually read that before. I am apparently not seeing what I am supposed to be seeing because I don't come away from it strongly suspecting anyone.

I still think it's scummy that Robz hasn't responded to the case against, now that he's been called on to do so 3 times (first by Eevee, than by me, than by me again with a vote). Robz is my preferred lynch.

[Voltaire]

I'm on my phone now, I'll answer that when I get home cause ill probably want to pull quotes

I want at least a good one-sentence preview now.

so would I. To me it looks like nkirbit went and looked at ashersky with the express purpose of finding me scummy. His latest series of posts make me want to stay on him as opposed to moving to lio at this point.

And I think he knows that Eevee and I are pre-disposed to find you (yuma) scummy.

[nkirbit]

Lio, in your #806, you simply say, "Not all of this stuff is scummy, but a lot of it is" and it's not entirely clear which is which, at least to me.  Would you mind going back and pointing out exactly which bits you find scummy?

[nkirbit]

Okay, Voltaire.

Eevee stated that he was pre-disposed to find Yuma scummy halfway through day2.  This was after the point at which I posted this:

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

In fact, you knew I had posted this, since you later pointed it out yourself.  So you knew that I had intended to look back at Ashersky from early day2.

Anyway, your case here is basically that "I know that Eevee and Voltaire think Yuma is naturally scummy, or something, so I'm going to throw out evidence against Yuma!"

If I'm scum, and trying to create a Yuma mislynch, I have two questions for you:

1)  Why don't I do my "fake Ashersky re-read" when I'm voting for Yuma, and not when I've stated that both of the two non-me wagons, Robz and Liopoil, are my two top scumreads.  If I'm really trying to mislynch Yuma, don't you think that I would do it while I'm voting for him?

2)  If my only reasons to re-read Ashersky are to create suspicion towards Yuma, why do I immediately create a follow-up post with three (good, in my opinion) reasons that we shouldn't consider Ashersky's reads too highly.  I believe that all three of those reasons are good!  If I'm really trying to create a Yuma mislynch, or even Yuma suspicion, I don't think I would give those three reasons.

So basically, the narrative you're trying to push here is that I decided that all I need to do to convince you and Eevee to be suspicious of Yuma is say, "Hey guys!  Ash was suspicious of Yuma!", but I wouldn't vote myself, and let the case take off from there?  Do you really think that's more likely than a player simply doing exactly what he said he was going to do earlier? 

And it's not like you weren't aware of the fact that I had intended to re-read Ashersky, because you called it my only post of value on day2 up to a certain point.

[liopoil]

quote snipped, only included scummy stuff, added clarification in red.

-

Mail mi always comes across as scummy--but he has actually been scum a good amount of times. He is also the one person I can name who has made scumslips that did turn out to be legitimately scumslips.

He's essentially always someone I am willing to lynch.

seems to suggest he doesn't support scumslips in general, just for mail-mi.

Ah, Voltgloss. I'm sorry, man. I really hate to lynch you Day 1 in your first game back. But... I just don't think we can overlook this. And I know you understand that.

With a heavy heart, Vote: Voltgloss

Good work, shraeye.

In contradiction of what he said previously of not trusting scumslips

he kinda apologizes for lynching him... ("Sorry I had to mislynch you - it's nothing personal, I'm just scum" Okay, exaggeration there, but I do think apologizing for suspecting someone is scummy.)

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I think this is a weak case against me. First of all, I was wrong about PPS, so why would I push a similar case as hard this time? Now, I think there are better reasons to think it's true this time. I have pushed the case, I mean, yuma and I were both making it and saying "also, what he said." Then ash disappeared and it was pointless arguing with someone who wasn't here. I'm not pushing it so hard because, meh, Day 1 participation is not something I do a lot of anymore? And also ash seemed likely to get lynch without me like really hammering it home? And also now I'm less sure, and pretty just focused on UoS getting back here.

Of course, what I think you may be doing is setting it up so that when you flip scum, people will look at who you voted for, wonder if you were distancing from a partner, and put me in trouble.

I don't think this is a great case - but it's an important interaction to point out. (forgot to mention that it's a big reaction, which normally isn't a big deal for me, but in this situation the case is from somebody who, if robz is town, thinks will flip scum, and so wouldn't care much.)

- I think he went over the top in his anti-vig shot thing D2.

-

and then there are these

I invite you to look then.

Why is everyone so quiet?

Come out scum. Say hi.

COme on, let's pile on some lurkers.

This is bad. Everyone should feel bad.

and these

I think a post count would be really illustrative. People did not post AT ALL this weekend, which is okay, but I expected things to pick up more today. I bet scum are lurking hardcore.

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

yeah, that's a lot of going after lurkers.

[nkirbit]

I think that Lio's actions today are very scummy.  Right now the two most viable wagons are myself and Robz, and Lio has

1)  Positioned himself on the wagon less likely to go through (Robz).
2)  Is not voting for me, but hasn't spoken up in my defense.  In fact, on the course we're currently going, it's entirely possible that I will be lynched before Lio even addresses any of the cases against me.

It looks like he's not trying to stop my lynch going through, but doesn't want to get his hands dirty, and if Robz is town, keep the lynch discussion to two town members as long as possible.  Even if Robz is scum, it's possible that Lio's on the other scum team.

It reminds me of how our scumteam positioned ourselves Day1 in clue.  I positioned myself on Chairs that game because I didn't want to be on Voltaire because I knew he was the likely lynch and wanted to be off wagon when he flipped scum, and knew that my momentum wasn't really needed.  And even if Chairs went through, it was not horrible, since it was still a lynch that wasn't on my team.  I think that's quite possibly what Lio is doing here.

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

Well, this is exactly what Lio did here, haha.  Showed up to explain himself the instant some pressure was thrown his way.

I know that's what Voltaire accused me of doing, but I do maintain there's a difference, because I had specifically said the day before I came back to activity that I would do so the next day.  But Lio made no such promise.

Vote: Liopoil

The reason I unvoted last night was these posts. I found nkirbit's case on lio strong enough that I didn't want to risk someone hammering nkirbit until I had a chance to look it over properly, and it was late last night.

I went back and re-read lio's case on Robz, and I don't like it. Robz's style is rapid-fire posts, so that's a null tell. On the other hand, lio's Robz suspicion is consistent. Lio has only been on Robz today, but I read his work as valid scumhunting where I come to a different conclusion. And I don't hold him not speaking up about nkirbit against him. It is completely reasonable not to defend a null read.

I still want to vote: nkirbit. The D1 stuff is significant, and so are the votes on yuma and Robz.

Going back and re-reading this again, it's really not a good defense at all.  Voltaire's defense of Liopoil seems to be that Lio is legitimately scumhunting.  I'm not sure I agree with that, but that's not going to be what I disagree with here.

What I will say is that:  Even if Liopoil is legitimately scumhunting, that does not make him not scum!  The reason why is that Mafia can employ legitimate scumhunting in order to find the Serial Killer, and the Serial Killer can employ legitimate scumhunting to find the mafia, because they both want to find each other!  So this defense of Liopoil doesn't work at all, since just because someone is scumhunting doesn't mean that they're not scum in a set-up with multiple scum factions.

I am getting more and more convinced that Liopoil and Voltaire are the mafia team.  Voltaire's interactions with Liopoil today, who I find independently scummy, have quite possibly been those of a mafia-partner.  He first attempted to direct our focus away from Liopoil towards 5 or 6 other players, and then has this defense of Liopoil which is both completely vague and doesn't really work at all.

[Voltaire]

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

In fact, you knew I had posted this, since you later pointed it out yourself.  So you knew that I had intended to look back at Ashersky from early day2.

Anyway, your case here is basically that "I know that Eevee and Voltaire think Yuma is naturally scummy, or something, so I'm going to throw out evidence against Yuma!"

If I'm scum, and trying to create a Yuma mislynch, I have two questions for you:

1)  Why don't I do my "fake Ashersky re-read" when I'm voting for Yuma, and not when I've stated that both of the two non-me wagons, Robz and Liopoil, are my two top scumreads.  If I'm really trying to mislynch Yuma, don't you think that I would do it while I'm voting for him?

2)  If my only reasons to re-read Ashersky are to create suspicion towards Yuma, why do I immediately create a follow-up post with three (good, in my opinion) reasons that we shouldn't consider Ashersky's reads too highly.  I believe that all three of those reasons are good!  If I'm really trying to create a Yuma mislynch, or even Yuma suspicion, I don't think I would give those three reasons.

So basically, the narrative you're trying to push here is that I decided that all I need to do to convince you and Eevee to be suspicious of Yuma is say, "Hey guys!  Ash was suspicious of Yuma!", but I wouldn't vote myself, and let the case take off from there?  Do you really think that's more likely than a player simply doing exactly what he said he was going to do earlier? 

And it's not like you weren't aware of the fact that I had intended to re-read Ashersky, because you called it my only post of value on day2 up to a certain point.

Well this is getting crazy.

1. You only did it when it looked like lio and Robz's wagons might not go through.
2. Because you were spraying everywhere, hoping for something to stick.

And now you're calling me scum too. Everyone who calls you scum you see as scum. You have to see how ridiculous that is.

[liopoil]

yeah, nkirbit, there are only 2-3 scum alive right now.

[nkirbit]

Vote Count yuma.1

nkirbit (2) yuma, Voltaire
Robz888 (3) liopoil, Eevee, Jorbles (L-2)
liopoil (3) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi (L-2)

Not Voting (1) shraeye

At this point I would be willing to vote liopoil over Robz. Way over Robz. I would put him about square even with nkirbit.

I would be very very fine with lynching liopoil today.

Yeah, it was really looking like there was no shot of the Lio wagon going through. 

[nkirbit]

yeah, nkirbit, there are only 2-3 scum alive right now.

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

[Voltaire]

yeah, nkirbit, there are only 2-3 scum alive right now.

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

It's not that you're accusing >3 people, it's that it's the people who have voted for you.

[nkirbit]

yeah, nkirbit, there are only 2-3 scum alive right now.

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

It's not that you're accusing >3 people, it's that it's the people who have voted for you.

Lio hasn't voted for me, and he's my top scum-read.  Yuma was probably a bit of OMGUS, I'll admit.  Robz was because of his vote for me, but not the fact that he was voting for me, but because of a miscategorization he made in his case against me.  He said something that wasn't true about me and found me scummy for it, and I don't think I'm wrong to find him scummy for doing that.

I'm not suspicious of you because of your vote for me.  I'm suspicious of you because of your interactions with Lio, who is my top scumread.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

[Voltaire]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Yuma was probably a bit of OMGUS, I'll admit.

You have gone back and forth on why you voted for yuma and what you actually think of him so much I have no idea what you think about him.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Yuma was probably a bit of OMGUS, I'll admit.

You have gone back and forth on why you voted for yuma and what you actually think of him so much I have no idea what you think about him.

At the time I voted for him, I was suspicious of him.  I still am, a little bit, but not as suspicious as I was when I voted him.  Certainly not enough to be voting for him at this point.  So I overstated my suspicions initially, but they are still there a little bit.  But certainly a good deal less than Robz or Yuma.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

[Robz888]

Yep, I'd actually read that before. I am apparently not seeing what I am supposed to be seeing because I don't come away from it strongly suspecting anyone.

I still think it's scummy that Robz hasn't responded to the case against, now that he's been called on to do so 3 times (first by Eevee, than by me, than by me again with a vote). Robz is my preferred lynch.

There is no case against me for me to respond to, is there?

[Robz888]

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

[mail-mi]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Yuma was probably a bit of OMGUS, I'll admit.

You have gone back and forth on why you voted for yuma and what you actually think of him so much I have no idea what you think about him.

Nk has been a little back-and-forth, hasn't he? Hm. I could vote for him if lip won't happen.

[mail-mi]

*lio, not lip

[liopoil]

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

what? I don't get it. you can say that of anyone.

[nkirbit]

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

I don't like this at all.  It looks like setting up multiple mislynches (or not your team lynches, at least).

[nkirbit]

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Yuma was probably a bit of OMGUS, I'll admit.

You have gone back and forth on why you voted for yuma and what you actually think of him so much I have no idea what you think about him.

Nk has been a little back-and-forth, hasn't he? Hm. I could vote for him if lip won't happen.

I've said this, several times:  I have some suspicion of Yuma.  They're there, but they're minor compared to my views on Lio and Robz.  Add in some OMGUS frustration, and voila, you get a vote for Yuma.  But I would not vote Yuma at this point because my suspicions are fairly minor.

[nkirbit]

Vote Count yuma.1

nkirbit (2) yuma, Voltaire
Robz888 (3) liopoil, Eevee, Jorbles (L-2)
liopoil (3) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi (L-2)

Not Voting (1) shraeye

At this point I would be willing to vote liopoil over Robz. Way over Robz. I would put him about square even with nkirbit.

I would be very very fine with lynching liopoil today.

Yeah, it was really looking like there was no shot of the Lio wagon going through. 

And I wasn't even on the Robz wagon.. had I moved, I would've put Robz to L-1!

Saying that I wanted to throw out suspicion on Yuma because it was looking like the Robz and Lio wagons weren't going to go through doesn't really make sense to me, since both of those wagons, at least from my perspective, looked like they were going to have a decent shot of happening.

[Robz888]

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

I don't like this at all.  It looks like setting up multiple mislynches (or not your team lynches, at least).

Why do you think they're both mislynches? I thought you also found lio scummy. You just said so.

[nkirbit]

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

I don't like this at all.  It looks like setting up multiple mislynches (or not your team lynches, at least).

Why do you think they're both mislynches? I thought you also found lio scummy. You just said so.

I do find Lio scummy, but I dislike statements like, "We should lynch X today, and then if he flips town, lynch Y the next day!"  Because apart from situations where two players do something like claim the same PR, I don't think it should ever be that simple.

[nkirbit]

And as I said before: Me finding Lio scummy does not make him 100% scum.  It's quite possible that Lio is town, and I think it would be silly for me to not at least consider that possibility.

If Lio is town, what you said is quite scummy to me.  Now, I don't think that Lio is town, and he's my strongest read, which is why I'm not voting for him and not for you for saying that.  But, if Lio flips town at some point, I would become more suspicious of you.

[yuma]

Ok at this point there have been 4 people by my count who said they are willing to vote nkiribt... yuma, robz, mail-mi and voltaire. Everyone else has not expressed an interest in it. I don't think nkirbit is going to be the lynch today. I am a little frustrated by that because I think we have a good case on him. shraeye might be the difference maker... I don't think shraeye included nkirbit as one of his rereads, so shraeye, I imagine you will be looking at that case when you get here but can you make sure to do so?

I think if shraeye is willing to vote nkirbit I will might move back, but right now I prefer a lio lynch over a robz one.

vote: liopoil

That is L-1

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.3

nkirbit (1) Voltaire
Robz888 (2) liopoil, Jorbles
liopoil (4) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma

Not Voting (2) shraeye, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day will end August 26th

[shraeye]

no hammering until I get back (hopefully tonight after shopping/sushi); I need to catch up on nkirbit case, also reread Eevee/yuma quickly.  I can only spread myself so thin.

[Voltaire]

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

I certainly wasn't changing the subject. I can't properly sort out what I think about lio with everything that's happened today. He's a null leaning town. And I don't want to lynch him, especially since it looks like too many of us are willing to.

[yuma]

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

I certainly wasn't changing the subject. I can't properly sort out what I think about lio with everything that's happened today. He's a null leaning town. And I don't want to lynch him, especially since it looks like too many of us are willing to.

żQue?

If five is too many to be willing how do you propose we get a lynch? I really dislike this logic.

[nkirbit]

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

I certainly wasn't changing the subject. I can't properly sort out what I think about lio with everything that's happened today. He's a null leaning town. And I don't want to lynch him, especially since it looks like too many of us are willing to.

You weren't?  I asked you about Lio, because I think you've been very vague in your opinions of him today (and are continuing to do so in this post), and I thought your previous reasoning for defending him didn't hold water.  Your response was, "Yeah, I guess you have a good point that my defense of Lio wasn't any good, but hey look, these other two players are scummy!"  In what world is that not changing the topic?

And the "not wanting to lynch Lio because it looks like too many of us are willing to" stance isn't convincing to me, either.  This is a really, really vague defense that you could use towards any single wagon ever.

[mail-mi]

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

I certainly wasn't changing the subject. I can't properly sort out what I think about lio with everything that's happened today. He's a null leaning town. And I don't want to lynch him, especially since it looks like too many of us are willing to.

żQue?

If five is too many to be willing how do you propose we get a lynch? I really dislike this logic.

If we lynch lio and he is mafia, I'm seriously gonna look at VA as his partner.

[Voltaire]

This must be some sort of record for least number of characters required to change the subject.  I wasn't asking you about myself of mail-mi, I was asking you about Lio.  What do you think about him?

I certainly wasn't changing the subject. I can't properly sort out what I think about lio with everything that's happened today. He's a null leaning town. And I don't want to lynch him, especially since it looks like too many of us are willing to.

żQue?

If five is too many to be willing how do you propose we get a lynch? I really dislike this logic.

If we lynch lio and he is mafia, I'm seriously gonna look at VA as his partner.

Holy ****, mail-mi, do you have a single opinion this game that isn't sheeping?

If five is too many to be willing how do you propose we get a lynch? I really dislike this logic.

Is it only five? Then ignore what I said, I thought it was 6 or 7 or something. I stand by this line of thinking (sometimes) and defend its usefulness. It showed me that nkirbit (ironically) was town in B2B.

[Voltaire]

And the "not wanting to lynch Lio because it looks like too many of us are willing to" stance isn't convincing to me, either.  This is a really, really vague defense that you could use towards any single wagon ever.

See above. And it's not every wagon ever. Only large ones. Like yours in B2B, which was literally everyone except for you. And it's been pointed out that lio's is smaller than I thought.

[yuma]

Is it only five? Then ignore what I said, I thought it was 6 or 7 or something. I stand by this line of thinking (sometimes) and defend its usefulness. It showed me that nkirbit (ironically) was town in B2B.

Jorbles doesn't seem interested in it. You aren't. Lio obviously isn't. Eevee doesn't seem to be either... 4 players

Shraeye does, but wants to reread further: 1

4 are voting.

4+1+4=9. So yeah, just 5 from what I can tell.

[liopoil]

don't not lynch me because everyone wants to lynch me, don't lynch me because I'm town.

I'll go look for/read the cases people made on me, if they exist.

[liopoil]

no hammering until I get back

also, no hammering until I get a chance to claim.

[mail-mi]

don't not lynch me because everyone wants to lynch me

Don't not = double negative = LYNCH HIM! 

[liopoil]

lol, mail-mi, that's the point. it's supposed to be double negative. I'm saying that the "Everyone wants to lynch me" reason not to lynch me is weak. instead, you shouldn't lynch me because I'm town, and not scummy.

[liopoil]

For instance, liopoil had a lot of interactions that gave me a large townread.

what happened to that?

okay, I looked at why people suspect me closer and responded in this post.

nkirbit's reasoning:

I think that Lio's actions today are very scummy.  Right now the two most viable wagons are myself and Robz, and Lio has

1)  Positioned himself on the wagon less likely to go through (Robz).
2)  Is not voting for me, but hasn't spoken up in my defense.  In fact, on the course we're currently going, it's entirely possible that I will be lynched before Lio even addresses any of the cases against me.

It looks like he's not trying to stop my lynch going through, but doesn't want to get his hands dirty, and if Robz is town, keep the lynch discussion to two town members as long as possible.  Even if Robz is scum, it's possible that Lio's on the other scum team.

It reminds me of how our scumteam positioned ourselves Day1 in clue.  I positioned myself on Chairs that game because I didn't want to be on Voltaire because I knew he was the likely lynch and wanted to be off wagon when he flipped scum, and knew that my momentum wasn't really needed.  And even if Chairs went through, it was not horrible, since it was still a lynch that wasn't on my team.  I think that's quite possibly what Lio is doing here.

so what did I do here that is scummy? I didn't talk about the nkirbit wagon. Like I explained, I have a nullread on nkirbit. really, there is nothing for me to say...

so I voted for a wagon with fewer votes. oh well, I don't really care, I'm gonna vote for my preferred lynch. You can interpret that as scum positioning myself on a wagon that won't as likely go through if you want, but that's silly. I guess people should never vote for someone if they don't have the most votes at the time.

"I think that's quite possibly what Lio is doing"
really strong, confident statement there. It's emphasized by the lack of a vote really well too. Not testing the waters at all. [/sarcasm]

I initially voted him just to provoke a reaction. I received none. I think he's scummy. He's putting in this extremely minimal amount of effort so that he doesn't get slapped with a hard lurker rap, but on the other hand, he's not doing much. He's a non-lurker pretender.

Let's lynch him.

Actually I'd find it evidence that nkirbit was acti-lurking if he did show up after your vote, to talk about it in any way. Acti-lurking scum shows up when they're the topic of conversation.

I take it no-one else wants to lynch mail-mi, but he's my choice for a variety of reasons, of which lurking is a part. There are (likely) two other scum in this game though, so I'll vote elsewhere if I need to.

I don't want to lynch anyone until shraeye and Eevee have posted. If they're scum we need to get them on the record.

Well, this is exactly what Lio did here, haha.  Showed up to explain himself the instant some pressure was thrown his way.

I know that's what Voltaire accused me of doing, but I do maintain there's a difference, because I had specifically said the day before I came back to activity that I would do so the next day.  But Lio made no such promise.

Vote: Liopoil

I showed up to explain myself when there was a need to explain myself. It would be silly if I just said out of the blue "btw guys, the reason I haven't said anything about nkirbit is because he's a null read". I mean, that doesn't hurt, but it certainly isn't necessary.

I'll be sure to post 24 hours notice before I contribute next time, instead of just contributing right away, sorry about that.

- robz sheeps nkirbit

shraeye's reread of me, which concludes that he is very fine lynching me. snipped for just the stuff he suspects me for. my text in red.

#182 makes a case to avoid claiming, saying that PRs becoming ICs is the power of the claim.  And then he says that PRs are unlynchable anyway, because they can claim at L-1.  This is only true for day1, however.  When Umbrage scolds him for not paying attention to the setup, liopoil gets huffy because he was only talking about day1 apparently, but wanted PRs to get some utility.  Actually, this is a really hard post to parse.

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

scumpoints here.  I am not sure what liopoil is talking about.  Liopoil is saying that the PRs will only be helpful on D2, but before he was talking about them as ICs.  I don’t see how they “don’t’ help us D1” if you want to use them as ICs scumpoints because you don't understand my post?? I'm saying that they are unlynchable D1 no matter whether they claim or not, because if they are about to be lynched, they will claim, and become IC unless scum counterclaims. If scum counterclaims, town is happy. so in terms of ICs on D1, it doesn't matter if they claim or not.

#498

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

liopoil:  say UoS is the Roleblocker.  Why do you think it would be better for the Town if he claims "not vig" instead of claiming "roleblocker?" 

hmmm. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of "claiming is a bad idea unless he's the vig", but he already claimed... so meh. okay, fullclaiming makes sense to me. I doubt he is scum, but if he is, making him fullclaim will catch him, while hardly helping scum at all if he's town. also, it prevents fakeclaims if he is NKed.

one thing I wasn't totally aware of: if we lynch scum, we find out the alignments of the players they have killed. so that makes scum fakeclaim slightly less viable, because they could get caught when we lynch their buddy.

I guess this was the fate of the vig/not-vig claim.  Again, liopoil inserts the seed of doubt into UoS’s claim saying “I doubt he is, but IF he is…”  This is rather odd given liopoil’s earlier stance of “only PRs would claim PRs, they are basically our ICs”.  Also, when he’s talking about finding alignment of players who scum have killed, he is completely disregarding the SK, who has no partners.  I think this could be telling, and that liopoil has a high chance of being the SK. UoS could be scum because scum could fakeclaim, especially if we're only generic PR claiming. But hopefully they get caught. I say the PRs are ICs because the only way they can be lynched D1 is if something that helps town more than an IC happens (scum fakeclaim)

DAY2

#693

So thoughts? It's not surprising that chairs/UoS was shot.

I'm going to put forward that I think ashersky was shot because he came forward with the PR plan. Scum often PR hunt by looking to see who talk most about PR theory.

I'm also going to say I suspect yuma after Voltgloss's flip. Why? Because yuma seemed really unconvinced by shraeye's case based on VG's slip, which everyone else seemed fairly suspicious of, even VG. It's like yuma knew that the slip was just us misreading something that looked a lot like a real scumslip.

I decided I didn't think the slip meant anything even before yuma did. you can say that we wanted towncred for being off wagon because we thought it would go through anyway... but meh.

pretty scummy; he’s wanting credit for not believing the slip, when he really wasn’t trying to convince anybody of Voltgloss’s innocence on the previous day.  Yuma, on the other hand, was trying to convince people that it was a bad lynch.  Here is liopoil’s unvote from the previous day, the rhetoric is so very…”we’ll you lynch him, but I don’t want to be a part of it” I was defending yuma here... not asking for towncred. So I didn't try to stop the VG lynch. I was not confident he was town. I said all I had to say in that post - that I don't think VGs slip made him scum.

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

#732

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

...coming back to this...

not really sold on the robz bit, that doesn't seem like much. I agree with ash-yuma being town-town. shraeye? no idea, I should look at his case again. I remember I didn't like it, but dunno if it was scummy or not.

If liopoil didn’t like my case yesterday, than that meant that he was voting for Voltgloss purely over the slip (although he recanted that).  This is actually exactly what I was looking for when going through the reactions to Voltgloss’s slip-lynch, was somebody who didn’t believe the case, but was sold based on the slip.  I didn’t see this before, because I only analyzed up to the end of Day1. Scummy for sure. Why is this scummy? lots of people did this, and even if it was just me, it isn't scummy.

#806 liopoil’s posting again slows down, and here he makes a case on Robz.  One point stands out to me, the rest of the case looks fairly strechy, and very uninteresting

- so many of his post are double posts, a continuation of what he said in his most recent post. I can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in the last post, but still. I don't really believe that scum inflate their post counts, but if they ever do, this is it.

This point takes something that is actually towny, and stretches it into being another “reason” that Robz is scum.  I think that the reason that mafia have low post counts is because they like to keep all their posts very concise, and edit them for maximum clarity.  I think it’s much more towny to post something, realize it’s slightly incomplete, then post addendums and such.  Scum is much more likely to have put full thought into their post the first time around, and posted a nice pretty thing with no omissions at all.
So seriously? You’re trying to zing Robz for inflating his postcount?  Robz is nowhere near the bottom, so he’s not “racing to keep his count up”.  Nobody really looks at post counts anymore as indicative of anything (or at least, I don’t think they should) unless the postcount is super-extreme.  This is a really scummy point to have made like I've said - this was not intended as a point against robz.

#895 (link)
Paranoia-post.  I think it’s pretty clear what Yuma is talking about, and that he’s finding Eevee scummy.
oh well, I thought it was ambiguous.

mail-mi:

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

nonsense stuff, as said before. 1. lurking, whatever, and seriously, looking for people with scum QTs again? 2. theory talk is not scummy, ever. 3. I made a case, you disagree with it. oh well. how are my recent posts scummy? he said somewhere else he agreed with other people too, and well, I explained what other people said. mail-mi: how do you decide which cases to sheep, and which not to? it seems quite random to me.

yuma compared robz and I, and actually it seems kind of sheeped shraeye's reread of me. not much for me to say there.

nkirbit has reiterated how much he wants to lynch me over and over without adding anything new. the reason he has for voting me is much weaker and smaller than shraeye's, and shraeye hasn't even voted for me!

yuma votes me, saying it's a better lynch than a robz lynch. disagree, see my revised case on robz (it wasn't a case before, it was a reread. I turned it into a case in a previous post).

------------------------------------------------

okay, that's it. TLDR: no! go back and actually read this post!

[shraeye]

For instance, liopoil had a lot of interactions that gave me a large townread.

what happened to that?

When I saw day2 that you had a post that said that you remember not liking the Voltgloss case that I wrote up at all.  But you still voted for the tag-slip portion.  Even if you unvoted later, I see this as pure opportunism.  When yuma was yelling about how the slip-lynch gives us no information I wanted to look for players who voted Voltgloss purely for the slip reasons.  YOU are the player that fits that opportunistic scumplay the best.  When I made the post you're quoting here, I hadn't yet done a reread of your day2 posts.

[shraeye]

Sorry, I've recently been hit by a serious case of disinterest.  I promise that I will be back tomorrow and contribute more.

I don't think nkirbit was classic acti-lurking, that is being around, posting some but zero contributions.  He really wasn't around much.  However, this statement really seems to come in response to Robz and yuma pushing suspicion at lurkers

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

nk I think has said very little.
Jorbles said stuff early
mail-mi I can't remember posting all of today
shraeye drunk posted some stuff.
eevee ? VLA? maybe?

It really looked like there was about to be apush towards lynching lurkers, so nkirbit pops in with his apology + promise to work harder.

[nkirbit]

I showed up to explain myself when there was a need to explain myself. It would be silly if I just said out of the blue "btw guys, the reason I haven't said anything about nkirbit is because he's a null read". I mean, that doesn't hurt, but it certainly isn't necessary.

I'll be sure to post 24 hours notice before I contribute next time, instead of just contributing right away, sorry about that.

So you're admitting that despite a player being a L-1, you weren't showing up to do anything because there was no need to explain yourself on anything?

You said you had a null-read on me.  Which isn't an issue by itself.  But if you had a null-read, that means that at the very least, you must have not been persuaded by cases made by Yuma, Robz, and Voltaire.  You weren't planning on stepping in and saying something like, "I don't think these cases are very good, and here's why...."  And it's not that you weren't around, because as you've just said yourself, you were around but not posting because there wasn't a need to explain myself.

I just don't buy it.  When I'm a town player, I want to make as much as an effort possible to make sure that my preferred lynches go through.  I don't sit back and say, "Well, Nkirbit's null, I guess that's not the worst."  If a player has a decent chance of being lynched for a case that I don't buy, I step forward and say why I think the case is bad, and why I think we should look elsewhere.  But you didn't do that, despite claiming to have a stronger read against Robz.  You were okay to sit back and let a lesser read get lynched without putting up at least some opposition to it.  That's why I think you're quite possibly scum.

[nkirbit]

Sorry, I've recently been hit by a serious case of disinterest.  I promise that I will be back tomorrow and contribute more.

I don't think nkirbit was classic acti-lurking, that is being around, posting some but zero contributions.  He really wasn't around much.  However, this statement really seems to come in response to Robz and yuma pushing suspicion at lurkers

But who is being quiet today? I'm talking. You are talking. Voltaire is taking. Liopoil just said some stuff. That's all that sticks out to me.

yeah, I didn't do a end of day1 post count. Anyone else happen to grab it?

nk I think has said very little.
Jorbles said stuff early
mail-mi I can't remember posting all of today
shraeye drunk posted some stuff.
eevee ? VLA? maybe?

It really looked like there was about to be apush towards lynching lurkers, so nkirbit pops in with his apology + promise to work harder.

If you look at other mafia games I am playing, you will notice a similar gap at a similar time.

[shraeye]

Well, I don't have a strong feeling on the nkirbit case. I'm not totally convinced by it, for sure, but well, he could be scum, probably more likely  than the average player too. I think robz is more likely to be scum. One reservation I have is that I think his frustration to the case reads more like Harry Potter mafia.

This post came in after nkirbit/Robz appeared to be agreeing that the proper target was liopoil.  This post really feels like he's trying to rekindle nkirbit vs. Robz instead of letting them both turn to focus on him.

[shraeye]

I showed up to explain myself when there was a need to explain myself. It would be silly if I just said out of the blue "btw guys, the reason I haven't said anything about nkirbit is because he's a null read". I mean, that doesn't hurt, but it certainly isn't necessary.

I'll be sure to post 24 hours notice before I contribute next time, instead of just contributing right away, sorry about that.

So you're admitting that despite a player being a L-1, you weren't showing up to do anything because there was no need to explain yourself on anything?

You said you had a null-read on me.  Which isn't an issue by itself.  But if you had a null-read, that means that at the very least, you must have not been persuaded by cases made by Yuma, Robz, and Voltaire.  You weren't planning on stepping in and saying something like, "I don't think these cases are very good, and here's why...."  And it's not that you weren't around, because as you've just said yourself, you were around but not posting because there wasn't a need to explain myself.

I just don't buy it.  When I'm a town player, I want to make as much as an effort possible to make sure that my preferred lynches go through.  I don't sit back and say, "Well, Nkirbit's null, I guess that's not the worst."  If a player has a decent chance of being lynched for a case that I don't buy, I step forward and say why I think the case is bad, and why I think we should look elsewhere.  But you didn't do that, despite claiming to have a stronger read against Robz.  You were okay to sit back and let a lesser read get lynched without putting up at least some opposition to it.  That's why I think you're quite possibly scum.

I agree with this a lot.

[yuma]

don't not lynch me because everyone wants to lynch me, don't lynch me because I'm town.

I'll go look for/read the cases people made on me, if they exist.

This post is so horribly annoying...

first part... you are town! Oh really? I didn't realize that! unvote thanks for clearing that up!

Why are you just now responding to the cases made against you now that you are at L-1? Why not respond along the way? If they exist. Oh, they exist. There has been a long dialogue about you that apparently you completely decided to ignore/or dismiss as not existing?

Oh, yeah... vote: liopoil

[yuma]

to everyone that was in B2B does this scream as loud to you as it does to me of his attitude that he took to me day3 when he knew he was caught out?

Overly sarcastic, appeals to emotion, resorting to a very defensive posture. Voltaire, nkirbit, mail-mi and eevee I know where town in that game. Shraeye modded. Robz was his scumpartner (not sure how much he paid attention after he was lynched) Do you guys notice the similarity?

yuma compared robz and I, and actually it seems kind of sheeped shraeye's reread of me. not much for me to say there.

is it sheeping to compare the two cases that have been presented on players that are not my preferred lynch (nkirbit) and determine which case is better? Because that is what I was doing and I don't think that classifies as sheeping. What mail-mi has done... sheeping. Sure. What I have done is look at the quality and to an extent the quantity as well as the reads players who are making the cases (nkirbit voting for you is a slight concern, but I have good town reads on shraeye and robz at this point I think). I don't see how you could classify that as sheeping unless you were attempting to discredit my vote on you.

I think an intent to lynch from shraeye would be appropriate at this juncture... (take your time shraeye, well maybe not too much time...)

[nkirbit]

Sorry Yuma, I wasn't paying enough attention to B2B at that point to comment one way or the other.

[yuma]

Sorry Yuma, I wasn't paying enough attention to B2B at that point to comment one way or the other.

if we are still going tomorrow when I have some free time maybe I will go back and pull some quotes. I am only going off memory myself, but I think there are some similarities... I remember because lio was starting to get to me at that point, I was really beginning to think he might be town, but the evidence was so overwhelming. Once I learned he was mafia I told myself not to trust him when it came to that sort of a defense again, his latest post struck that nerve.

[shraeye]

shraeye's reread of me, which concludes that he is very fine lynching me. snipped for just the stuff he suspects me for. my text in red.

#182 makes a case to avoid claiming, saying that PRs becoming ICs is the power of the claim.  And then he says that PRs are unlynchable anyway, because they can claim at L-1.  This is only true for day1, however.  When Umbrage scolds him for not paying attention to the setup, liopoil gets huffy because he was only talking about day1 apparently, but wanted PRs to get some utility.  Actually, this is a really hard post to parse.

My reaction had nothing to do with the vote, it was to him scolding me about not paying attention, when in reality I'm more caught up than I really should be. so yes, if we don't claim today we can't trust claimants on later days - however, if we claim now, at least one, likely two of our PRs gets killed tonight. by D3 start all of our ICs will probably be gone, AND they didn't help us D1 because we couldn't lynch them anyway, so they were ONLY helpful on D2. I can see vig claiming because he will still be  able to shoot once, but cop claiming? nahh, his PR is too good, especially if vig claims.

scumpoints here.  I am not sure what liopoil is talking about.  Liopoil is saying that the PRs will only be helpful on D2, but before he was talking about them as ICs.  I don’t see how they “don’t’ help us D1” if you want to use them as ICs scumpoints because you don't understand my post?? I'm saying that they are unlynchable D1 no matter whether they claim or not, because if they are about to be lynched, they will claim, and become IC unless scum counterclaims. If scum counterclaims, town is happy. so in terms of ICs on D1, it doesn't matter if they claim or not.

#498

Query:  should UoS reveal his role? 

if he's the vigilante, yes. so I think he should claim vig/not vig.

liopoil:  say UoS is the Roleblocker.  Why do you think it would be better for the Town if he claims "not vig" instead of claiming "roleblocker?" 

hmmm. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of "claiming is a bad idea unless he's the vig", but he already claimed... so meh. okay, fullclaiming makes sense to me. I doubt he is scum, but if he is, making him fullclaim will catch him, while hardly helping scum at all if he's town. also, it prevents fakeclaims if he is NKed.

one thing I wasn't totally aware of: if we lynch scum, we find out the alignments of the players they have killed. so that makes scum fakeclaim slightly less viable, because they could get caught when we lynch their buddy.

I guess this was the fate of the vig/not-vig claim.  Again, liopoil inserts the seed of doubt into UoS’s claim saying “I doubt he is, but IF he is…”  This is rather odd given liopoil’s earlier stance of “only PRs would claim PRs, they are basically our ICs”.  Also, when he’s talking about finding alignment of players who scum have killed, he is completely disregarding the SK, who has no partners.  I think this could be telling, and that liopoil has a high chance of being the SK. UoS could be scum because scum could fakeclaim, especially if we're only generic PR claiming. But hopefully they get caught. I say the PRs are ICs because the only way they can be lynched D1 is if something that helps town more than an IC happens (scum fakeclaim)

Unvote

VG has a point - he does make the same mistake in reverse in that QT. that means a lot for me really, and think that it's more of a null tell.

I'll feel really silly if he is indeed scum, and yeah, this unvote will look really bad, but oh well, I don't want to lynch him, so I'm unvoting.

#732

Well, let me leave you all with this.  I don't expect anyone to believe this now, but if you lynch me, perhaps you'll come back to this after my flip.

Vote: Robz

Robz planted the idea of "early VT claim = scummy" regarding ash.  But he has not pushed that line of thought heavily - not nearly like he did in the game where pingpongsam did the same thing and got crucified for it.  Instead, he let me push it instead.  This is likely scum!Robz, who likes nothing more than to see me make his cases for him. 

I believe ash.  But be careful gang about his focus on yuma.  I'm not convinced yuma is scum - I think ash v. yuma is town v. town, being egged on by scum on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, ash will probably try to force a him-or-me with yuma.  ash, if you're town:  Just please be careful about doing that. 

I think shraeye is town and doing his damnedest.  I'm sorry I blundered into your sights.  That's on me, not on you.

...coming back to this...

not really sold on the robz bit, that doesn't seem like much. I agree with ash-yuma being town-town. shraeye? no idea, I should look at his case again. I remember I didn't like it, but dunno if it was scummy or not.

If liopoil didn’t like my case yesterday, than that meant that he was voting for Voltgloss purely over the slip (although he recanted that).  This is actually exactly what I was looking for when going through the reactions to Voltgloss’s slip-lynch, was somebody who didn’t believe the case, but was sold based on the slip.  I didn’t see this before, because I only analyzed up to the end of Day1. Scummy for sure. Why is this scummy? lots of people did this, and even if it was just me, it isn't scummy.

#806 liopoil’s posting again slows down, and here he makes a case on Robz.  One point stands out to me, the rest of the case looks fairly strechy, and very uninteresting

- so many of his post are double posts, a continuation of what he said in his most recent post. I can totally see anyone thinking of something they should have said in the last post, but still. I don't really believe that scum inflate their post counts, but if they ever do, this is it.

This point takes something that is actually towny, and stretches it into being another “reason” that Robz is scum.  I think that the reason that mafia have low post counts is because they like to keep all their posts very concise, and edit them for maximum clarity.  I think it’s much more towny to post something, realize it’s slightly incomplete, then post addendums and such.  Scum is much more likely to have put full thought into their post the first time around, and posted a nice pretty thing with no omissions at all.
So seriously? You’re trying to zing Robz for inflating his postcount?  Robz is nowhere near the bottom, so he’s not “racing to keep his count up”.  Nobody really looks at post counts anymore as indicative of anything (or at least, I don’t think they should) unless the postcount is super-extreme.  This is a really scummy point to have made like I've said - this was not intended as a point against robz.

I'm responding to three of his "defenses".

First two red things, if you're intending to use the PRs as ICs as youwere, it doesn't make sense to only let them operate on day1 as you said.  that's the part i dont understand, and the fact that you were unclear here is scummy.

third red thing; I already explained why this is scummy.

fourth red thing in next post.

[shraeye]

If it's not a point about why he's scum, why are you charging the language up like that?

"I can totally see anyone...BUT STILL"

"I don't really believe that scum inflate their...BUT IF THEY EVER DO, THIS IS IT"

Why they heck did you use language like this if "it was not intended as a point against Robz"

The best answer you gave to this question WHICH I ALREADY ASKED WAS

it's not a case, It was a re-read. I included everything that I found of interest.

Ridiculous.  you don't phrase things as you did if you aren't trying to convince others.  ergo, a case.

[shraeye]

shraeye, rank your scum reads. You're throwing up long posts that have found (unless I've missed something) the same scummy players as everyone else.

I reread the day2.  I think Eevee/yuma be towny, along with Robz/voltaire.  Jorbles is very very "go with the wind".  He deserves a hard look tomorrow.

liopoil is my main scumread, and it's a huge one.  nkirbit is suspicious. mail-mi is null, a hard to read dude.

[shraeye]

after rereading day2 in full, I am so ready to lynch liopoil.

I mean, read his defense in #993.  with regards to nkirbit's suspicions, liopoil says "it would be really weird if I showed up just to say i had a null read".  Dude, that's not the point, and it's not what nkirbit said.  Townliopoil ISN"T null on that wagon, he has things to say about it.  you're just dialing it in, and this defense shows even more of that.  His defense against mailmi is to try to paint him as suspicious for "randomly" picking liopoil's case to sheep.  It sounds much more like liopoil is frustrated that mail-mi is voting him than an actual defense of anything mail-mi or anyone else said.  This is caught scum, and i'm uninterested in hearing more from him.

vote: liopoil

[Archetype]

Thread Locked

Results posted tommorow.

[Archetype]

"W-What are you all doing!?" liopoil asked, his back pressed against the corner, wide-eyed and nervous.

"We know you're one of those evil Daleks." Shraeye replied, clenching his fists around the rope wrapped around his hands.

"And we have reads!" yuma said enthusiastically.

"Yeah, reads!" mail-mi exclaimed thrusting a book into the air.

"Not those kind of reads. You've been acting suspicious all day long, especially that look you gave when that spaceship appeared." Shraeye said seriously.

"I was scared!" liopoil protested.

"Yeah right!" The crowd chorused.

"I'm serious!" He replied.

"Then who are you?" nkiribt asked.

liopoil opened his mouth to speak, but he was caught off by shraeye. "No. Enough talk." he said, pulling the rope taunt. "It's time for a lynch."

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.FINAL

nkirbit (1) Voltaire
Robz888 (2) liopoil, Jorbles
liopoil (5) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma, shraeye

Not Voting (1)Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day will end August 26th

Liopoil, otherwise known as Mickey Smith the Vanilla Townie has been lynched!


Night 2 start!
48 hours to get night actions in to sudgy and me.

[Archetype]

Episode 3

With little information about what is going on and who is good and who is evil, times have been drastic. And drastic times call for drastic measures.

Only 6 bodies stood up from that night's slumber. Thoughts of characters such as an Ood Sigma, Sarah Jane Smith, and a Judoon Captain flashed through the group's mind. Vicious nightmares depicting an elusive metal robot  with a license to kill haunted them throughout the night. But who were these mysterious strangers? We're any of them still alive?

yuma did a quick head count and reported  backto the group, "Eight of us fell asleep last night, where are the other two?"

Everyone looked around in an attempt to find the missing bodies. Voltaire poked around the fallen furniture and was horrified over what he saw.

"I-I think this used to be Eevee" He said, pointing to a pile of ashes tucked against the base of a bookshelf.

"Is he a friend or foe?" Robz888 asked.

"Impossible to tell." Voltaire replied. "Only the killer would know his true identity."

"Uh, guys." mail-mi shouted. "You might want to come over here."

The five other guests walked to the underside of the stairs where mail-mi stood mouth a-gape staring at the floor.

"What is it?" shraeye asked.

"Yeah, what hap-" But Voltaire was caught off mid-sentence. There, on the floor, were what were most likely Jorbles ashes spread across the wooden planks. But they weren't arranged randomly.

In crude displacement of charred body parts read the words "YOU'RE NEXT!"

*twilight zone music*

[Archetype]

Jorbles was vaporized. Their alignment and power is unknown.

Eevee was vaporized. Their alignment and power is unknown.


Not Voting (6) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma, shraeye, Voltaire
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The day will end on September 6th.

Day 3 start!

[mail-mi]

Okay, we could be dealing with anywhere from 1-3 scum. I'm actually thinking its two, considering only 6 people alive.

[Robz888]

It's weird not knowing how bad we are doing. My guess is somewhere between pretty bad and really bad. Hopefully Eevee or Jorbles were scum?

[Voltaire]

Okay, we could be dealing with anywhere from 1-3 scum. I'm actually thinking its two, considering only 6 people alive.

Actually we could be forced to play kingmaker - that's how the most recent MafiaScum game ended. LyLo with 1 town, 1 mafia, SK. I'm not assuming anything.

My big V/LA is coming up tomorrow. I'm going to try to get something down about where I stand tonight and then I'll be away till basically Monday, some lite checking in but I won't be able to do anything labor-intensive (like re-reads) during that.

[Robz888]

We do have some decisions to make. Let me stress that these conversations have to be very careful. Don't reveal stuff.

So, we have not yet had three night kills. Of course a few things could have caused this.

Scum overlap.
Scum/vig overlap.
Role blocking.
Vig not shooting (something I would argue was at least correct on night 1)

We might be in a situation where we would want our Vig to shoot tonight, because we need to get lucky. I do think we should discuss that a little bit.

Our vig and blocker, if alive, may have useful information. Mass claim should be discussed, yes?

Of course, all PRs may be dead, in which case claiming opens up opportunities for scum. Scum know which PRs are dead, right? They gain that info, and have day chat? So basically they know whether to fake claim or not.

So this is all a bit tricky. I'm really by sure what to do--the best thing might be to do my bong and just normal scum hunt. But, if we think we are I bad shape, we may just need to play risky.

If we mislynch today, and all scum have survived so far (which is probaby at least a decent chance?), that's quite bad.

[Robz888]

Clearly I was phone posting. Do my bong! Should be do nothing.

[yuma]

Right now I am assuming the worst that we have three scum still alive. I think everyone else should just do the same to play on the safe side.

Although a vig claiming that he had shot mafia or SK could give us some flexibility, although it could be mafia just trying to lead town astray into thinking we are in a good position...

My personal opinion is that if a vig is still alive and we don't hit scum with the lynch, the vig should fire away tonight. To me this is like MV where CFrisk won the game for town in a desperate situation with a vig (although at the time he wasn't sure if he was a vig or not) on me.... (worst game ever!)
 
However, if we do lynch mafia today I am not so sure that a vig shooting is necessary. Because a successful lynch might be enough to get us back into the game and a bad vig would just sink us back down again...

I for one need to do a complete reread. I am not sure where I will find the time, but it is certainly a priority as far as f.ds goes...

[Robz888]

Wow. Okay, I really wasn't expecting total silence here. Um, you guys know we are in the critical, exciting stage of the game, right?

Anyway here's who we have:

Not Voting (6) nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma, shraeye, Voltaire

I have no idea who I am inclined to suspect the least. I have a little suspicion of almost everyone.

I guess the only person I'm really not looking at very much here is shraeye. The way he pioneered the VG case on Day 1--against someone he knew would turn out town, if shraeye were scum--just seems to me as not a scum!move for him. He didn't need to do that to VG, and didn't it stand a good chance of hurting him?

I did say I wanted to look really hard at nkirbit today, who was my other big suspect yesterday, and is still alive.

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

[nkirbit]

Wow, I was very wrong about Liopoil.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

Robz, I guess it is surprising that Yuma is alive, but I'm not necessarily sure that indicates that he's not town.. if he were scum, he would be a good target for the other team too, right?

Here's a thought:  The SK, at this point during the night, is probably focused on shooting mafia as opposed to shooting town.  Is there anyone who had a scum-read on Eevee or Jorbles?  Perhaps we can find an SK there.  I'm worried that there wasn't, though, because all the active players were pretty much ignoring the inactive ones.

[nkirbit]

The other thing to consider:  Scum killed Eevee and Jorbles, which in a certain sense means that they're not desperate to change the environment of the game.. if the game were to continue it's course from yesterday, that would predict myself, Robz, Voltaire, and Yuma all pointing our fingers at each other.. that's what we were certainly doing yesterday.  Perhaps we should look outside that group.

Shraeye said this about my Lio case yesterday:  "I agree with this a lot."  Town!Shraeye hardly ever agrees with anything I say (perhaps never?  I can't think of anything at the moment.)  The only other time I remember him liking a case of mine was my case on Xeiron in Innovation, where I was heavily pushing for a mislynch of Xeiron and scum!Shraeye was agreeing with some of the things that I was saying.  I wonder if this isn't a repeat of that scenario.

[Robz888]

You are correct that the Eevee/Jorbles kill is scum saying, "Continue you the status quo, please." But, I mean it's a bit accidental--they can't coordinate. I would bet that mafia thought there was something up with Eevee, perhaps PR or SK--since he was so, so uncommonly quiet--and killed him. SK shoots Jorbles because.... it's just sort of random? I don't know. This is highly speculative.

Scum!yuma WOULD be a good target for the other team, but keep in mind that they aren't full teams. If yuma is mafia, the other team is just an SK, who may not have thought of killing yuma. You are new enough--and Voltaire was gone from f.ds at the time when yuma really became so great--that you may not know killing him is such a necessity, for instance.

[mail-mi]

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

[mail-mi]

Okay reread on Robz:

heh nevermind bedtime. I got a little bit through, the super-long late rant on vigs is null-to-the very slightest amount of scummy.

[Robz888]

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

Why tho. What is the ironclad rule of the university determining that.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

I get where you are coming from but the same conditions apply to yourself... I would suggest even more so to you as you are Night killed even more often than I am. And to shraeye to an extent... I survive throughout a game as town a lot more often than people seem to realize... especially when I am wrong in my reads (See Pirates and Bankers and Harry Potter, although I was less wrong in that last game, but no one was really wrong there...)

Ultimately I think I am alive because scum understands that the longer I am left alive the better chance I have of being a mislynch down the road... especially with a handful of people already suspecting me. That I kinda think that scum may have been gunning for each other during this last night... hence the targets on lurkers (note lurkers that had really received no high amounts of suspicion throughout either day)

[mail-mi]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

Well, I also had scum reads on both of you before a little. And why is going to bed scummy?

[nkirbit]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

Well, I also had scum reads on both of you before a little. And why is going to bed scummy?

Perhaps he was talking about the parts of the post that actually related to the mafia game, rather than those that didn't.

[shraeye]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

This is exactly the same worry I was having.  If I'm scum, I'm taking out the town-leadingest voices first.  But there are two teams, so for yuma to be town, TWO teams had to have not wanted to kill him.  There obviously is incentive for the non-yuma team to shoot at him, so this line of reasoning leads me to suspect...well now that I think about it pretty much everyone but Robz.  I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

[shraeye]

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

I don't like that liopoil's flip didn't make you reassess anything.  Just immediately roll onto the other people who were suspected.

I just reread mail-mi's day2 contributions which at first glance were basically being a willing vote behind either nkirbit or liopoil.  I think his post were he voted for liopoil is just sooo full of vagueness.

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

He was lurking, he talked theory, he made a case that people followed, he had a stretch of scummy posts.

This could literally be said about anybody, since there's no reference to exactly which posts were found scummy, or anything that anybody could defend against.

[shraeye]

We do have some decisions to make. Let me stress that these conversations have to be very careful. Don't reveal stuff.

So, we have not yet had three night kills. Of course a few things could have caused this.

Scum overlap.
Scum/vig overlap.
Role blocking.
Vig not shooting (something I would argue was at least correct on night 1)

There's also the possibility that somebody shot the SK, who has 1-bulletproof, and that is a missing kill.

But I think we have to follow yuma's note here

Right now I am assuming the worst that we have three scum still alive. I think everyone else should just do the same to play on the safe side.

and just assume the worst until we get more info via a flip.  We are potentially very close to some endgame scenario, and it would be a mistake not to recognize that.

[yuma]

I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

This line of thought actually makes me less suspicious of nkirbit... somewhat.... I mean coming out of day2 he is still my top scum read prior to reassessing the information based on my read from day2, but this thought does stand out at first glance. Because all of Robz, voltaire and I had nkirbit pretty high on our scum reads. Thus if nkirbit is mafia he has to decide that he wants to kill elsewhere (jorbles or eevee, who didn't have a scum read on him at all... both I am pretty sure were basically null on him) over one of us to alleviate that (especially voltaire and me).

Granted that line of thought could be what nkirbit wanted us to think, but I think it is the riskier line to walk. Taking out someone who is suspicious of you is generally pretty standard play and is often the safer play because changing people's minds in this game can be difficult (we are all so stubborn!)

So I think I agree with whomever it was that said the night kills were likely dictated by players who wanted to maintain the status quo of people being suspicious of nkirbit and robz. Those two players received far more suspicion than any other player day2, myself included, although I would probably put myself third on that list. (compared to the other three players shraeye, mail-mi and voltaire). So basically I am thinking that looking at those three (who if the status quo were continued would have less suspicion than the others) might be my top priority for rereads...

[Robz888]

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing. I mean, I am still suspicious of nkirbit, but the fact that everyone wanting him out hard is still around is mitigating in a non-trivial way. And then mail-mi came in and basically said the exact thing I would expect scum to say.

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

Especially because of the way he phrased it. It wasn't, "These are the people I suspect." It was just very leading. Like he wants to remind us about these people--and then push the cases, so long as it meets no resistance.

[Robz888]

Now, mail-mi is always scummy, and very often scum, and this colors my perception of him. He is certainly no less scummy than usual here.

[Robz888]

So... little... talking.

[nkirbit]

I'm unfortunately very busy at the moment, and will be until next week, most likely :/.  I don't think I'll have the time to go back and do major re-reads.

The person I'm most suspicious of at the moment is Shraeye.  Seriously, that dude never agrees with me when he's town, never.  He's also a very strong town player who was out of the spotlight entirely day1 and day2... were he town, I think he would be a good NK target, since it looked like he wasn't likely to get lynched, probably less likely than anyone else.

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

[Robz888]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

[yuma]

I did say I wanted to look really hard at nkirbit today, who was my other big suspect yesterday, and is still alive.

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing.

I find these two quotes to be compelling when placed next to each other.

First Robz says he said yesterday that he said day2 he wanted to look hard a nkirbit if he is still alive (no mention of a bluff)

But then later he comes out and says that it was actually a bluff...

Seems like it was more a matter of convenience for when he said his intentions on nkirbit were a bluff...

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

Fair enough I guess.

I am second most on your radar? Where is this coming from?

Claiming I think I am against. I doubt I will be able to believe anyone's claim... or rather I don't think it will influence how I feel about someone. If I think they are scum I think a claim will make me find them more scummy. If I think they are town I think a claim will likely solidify that.... maybe. It actually might make me find them more scummy to be honest.

I have already brought up a query about nkirbit and I guess I just don't completely understand why you think scum!shraeye wouldn't be capable of making a case on voltgloss in a way that town!shraeye would.

Mail-mi? Your guess is as good as mine. I know that if I were scum and if he were town, he would be the person I would be gunning for a lynch and would have kept alive... See Mean Girls... so there is that to consider.

I think mostly everyone feels like they can't really comment on stuff until they have done a reread... which has some validity to it. But also something of a fallacy. I'll call it the "Jimmm fallacy" in that his gut read based off memory was pretty good in the CLUE game (a reread kinda solidified it) but ultimately led to him not being able to make a decision--or would have been making a rushed decision not feeling informed if he had come online at a crucial moment).  So basically I guess I am saying to people that rereading is nice--I am certainly going to try and do it--but not absolutely crucial or necessary to make informed posts and reads and cases.

[shraeye]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

[Robz888]

I did say I wanted to look really hard at nkirbit today, who was my other big suspect yesterday, and is still alive.

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing.

I find these two quotes to be compelling when placed next to each other.

First Robz says he said yesterday that he said day2 he wanted to look hard a nkirbit if he is still alive (no mention of a bluff)

But then later he comes out and says that it was actually a bluff...

Seems like it was more a matter of convenience for when he said his intentions on nkirbit were a bluff...

I just said that to be consistent.

[shraeye]

Shraeye said this about my Lio case yesterday:  "I agree with this a lot."  Town!Shraeye hardly ever agrees with anything I say (perhaps never?  I can't think of anything at the moment.)  The only other time I remember him liking a case of mine was my case on Xeiron in Innovation, where I was heavily pushing for a mislynch of Xeiron and scum!Shraeye was agreeing with some of the things that I was saying.  I wonder if this isn't a repeat of that scenario.

The person I'm most suspicious of at the moment is Shraeye.  Seriously, that dude never agrees with me when he's town, never.  He's also a very strong town player who was out of the spotlight entirely day1 and day2... were he town, I think he would be a good NK target, since it looked like he wasn't likely to get lynched, probably less likely than anyone else.

So twice nkirbit has beaten this drum, and I figured out what is bollocks about this argument.

Me and nkirbit have played together only twice before...In Innovation, I was scum and he was town; I agreed with him at times there, but also won the game lynching AHoppy while calling nkirbit as his partner.

In clue, I was town and he was scum; in that game I instantly got a scumread on him and was wanting nkirbit lynches for almost all of day1.  I was nightkilled N1 for this.  Naturally, in my stubborn way, i didn't agree with him ALLLLL game. wowie, great case here nkirbit.


So drawing upon allll of his "how does townshraeye act?" experience of a single game, nkirbit sees that I never agree with him when I'm town.

[Robz888]

I agree that nkirbit's argument is wrong, I just don't think it's a scum argument.

[shraeye]

Eh, and now I'm remembering that nkirbit/Voltaire had a link in my mind.  Voltaire was pretty defenseive of nkirbit early in the game.  Volt also got paranoid and wanted me to clarify my scumreads because I had called him nkirbit's partner back on day1. 

[shraeye]

hmmmm, but Voltaire was pretty sold on the nkirbit lynch yesterday...scratch taht.

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

Once again I am asking why?

I mean really? Why? Is it just based off the idea that I wasn't night killed and thus must be mafia? Is that your whole argument. Because if so it misses a crucial piece. That mafia knows this. I do have an established meta where if I am not dead by day3 I am scum. But it isn't an accurate meta. And it is a meta that favors scum tremendously when I am town. All they have to do to get me mislynched on day3 (and at a likely critical juncture) is to keep me alive...

[shraeye]

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

So how do you feel about voltaire now that you've seen liio's flip?

[shraeye]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

Once again I am asking why?

I mean really? Why? Is it just based off the idea that I wasn't night killed and thus must be mafia? Is that your whole argument. Because if so it misses a crucial piece. That mafia knows this. I do have an established meta where if I am not dead by day3 I am scum. But it isn't an accurate meta. And it is a meta that favors scum tremendously when I am town. All they have to do to get me mislynched on day3 (and at a likely critical juncture) is to keep me alive...

Looking back at games; i grabbed the normal ones.  yuma was scum in Masons/monks, mean girl and was alive until the end in both.  yuma town in Bankers, Grujah's game, ninjas, simpleMafia...he was nightkilled night 4 in Bankers, N1 in ninjas.  lived in the other two games for 3 days in each.

The last time you were lynched seems ages ago.  I think I remember that happening in DS9.  so your meta of being a mislynch if you're alive at day3 is not really supported by anything other than your word.

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

Once again I am asking why?

I mean really? Why? Is it just based off the idea that I wasn't night killed and thus must be mafia? Is that your whole argument. Because if so it misses a crucial piece. That mafia knows this. I do have an established meta where if I am not dead by day3 I am scum. But it isn't an accurate meta. And it is a meta that favors scum tremendously when I am town. All they have to do to get me mislynched on day3 (and at a likely critical juncture) is to keep me alive...

Looking back at games; i grabbed the normal ones.  yuma was scum in Masons/monks, mean girl and was alive until the end in both.  yuma town in Bankers, Grujah's game, ninjas, simpleMafia...he was nightkilled night 4 in Bankers, N1 in ninjas.  lived in the other two games for 3 days in each.

The last time you were lynched seems ages ago.  I think I remember that happening in DS9.  so your meta of being a mislynch if you're alive at day3 is not really supported by anything other than your word.

But both DS9 and Masons further show my point. In those games I was scum. And I was alive til the end in both (lynched correctly the last day of DS9). But in both of those games there was an opposing scum faction who elected to not kill me. If I am such a major threat to scum because I am a world class scum hunter why didn't those factions kill me off?

I never said I had a meta of being mislynched day3 if alive, but there is a meta of that general concept and has been mentioned numerous times by players (ashersky specifically seems to mention it quite a bit). Look, I am not going to be able to win this argument by showing off how many times I have been mislynched. Why? Because I don't get mislynched. Ever. I have been mislynched a grand total of 1 time in Masquerade.

But what I am trying to explain is that just because I live out through a game doesn't automatically make me mafia.

To expand on your thinking:

Harry Potter - town; lived until the end (why wasn't I killed by mafia here?)
Simple Game - town: lived until the end (why wasn't I killed by mafia here?)
Pirates II - town: lived until the end (why wasn't I killed by mafia here?)
Mean Girls - mafia: lived until the end
Ninjas - town: died night1 (finally a game where mafia killed me. Why because I was obviously town pushing the day1 wagon on scum correctly)
Bankers - town: lived til late mid game (why wasn't I killed earlier?)
Masons and Monks - mafia (lived til the end, but why not killed by other faction?)
DS9 - mafia (lived til basically the end, but why not killed by other faction?)
Major Arcana II- town: Night killed night2
Buffy - town: Lived until the end (why wasn't I killed by mafia here?)
Switch mafia - town: lived until the basically the end (why wasn't I killed by mafia earlier?)
Chicken mafia - mafia: lived until the end
Masquerade - town: lived for a long time, ultimately lynched mid game.
Major Arcana - town: Night killed night2
Pirates - town: night killed night4
Doctor Mafia - mafia - lived until the end
III - mafia lived until basically the end.

So basically what I am saying is that there are slew of games where I have survived until the late game and not been mafia. and I don't like that people are suggesting that I am mafia solely based off that evidence. Because it is faulty as demonstrated above.

[mail-mi]

So I'm doing the promised reread of Robz, and if I see anything pop out, I'll note it here.

Does Robz usually take 3 posts in a row to do nothing but call on lurkers? I swear he does this at least 3 times in D2. Thing is, he does this, without posting content himself. Scummy.

lol accidental lock.

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

Has robz revisited nk yet? Has he done anything other than vague accusations toward me and call out lurkers?

Scratch that, rereading D3 now, he has.

Wants to meta-lynch yuma. Something I don't agree with right now.

This seems weird (not necessarily scummy, but definitely weird)

I just said that to be consistent.

All in all, a null-to-scummy read. And it's bad that i have a nullish read this stage...

[mail-mi]

Rly? nothing?

[yuma]

Rly? nothing?

Oh, man. You had so many original and deep thoughts... we probably all just needed time to digest it.

I'll do my best here, but can't guarantee anything that, you know, measures up to your thoughts on the subject:

So I'm doing the promised reread of Robz, and if I see anything pop out, I'll note it here.

Does Robz usually take 3 posts in a row to do nothing but call on lurkers? I swear he does this at least 3 times in D2. Thing is, he does this, without posting content himself. Scummy.

Hmmmm. lurkers. I think the real question is whether the people he was calling out were actually lurking or not.

lol accidental lock.

yeah... that was funny

I think we should lynch lio. If he's scum, great. If he's town, revisit nkirbit tomorrow.

Has robz revisited nk yet? Has he done anything other than vague accusations toward me and call out lurkers?

Scratch that, rereading D3 now, he has.

yep...

Wants to meta-lynch yuma. Something I don't agree with right now.

Great! Neither do I. My reasons should be clear. What are yours?

This seems weird (not necessarily scummy, but definitely weird)

I just said that to be consistent.

The weird vs scummy debate once again. Why is it weird? Why is it weird, but not scummy? It actually kinda cleared up my original question on the subject.

All in all, a null-to-scummy read. And it's bad that i have a nullish read this stage...

You are right. It is bad to have a nullish read at this stage...

[shraeye]

This seems weird (not necessarily scummy, but definitely weird)

I just said that to be consistent.

All in all, a null-to-scummy read. And it's bad that i have a nullish read this stage...

Why do you point out something that's weird, only to say it's not necessarily scummy.  Do YOU think it's scummy?  do you want US to think it's scummy.  Why might it be scummy and why not?

Unless you have answers for those questions, there's no point behind just calling things out.



That read has almost no content.  You said a few things Robz did.  The ONLY read that I see from your post is calling Robz scummy for zinging the lurkers.  Other than that you noted the thread lock, asked a question, realized you had the answer (but didn't comment at all on Robz's nkirbit stances in either direction), pointed out something that 'wasn't necessarily scummy'.

I'm surprised this leads to to have any read on Robz at all.

[yuma]

quick post as labor appears to be commencing. Not sure when I will be back.

I feel like I need to put a vote down given my VLA may last who knows how long. nkirbit remains toward the top really just based off my feelings from yesterday. See those posts for more info. vote: nkirbit

See you all later. I'll be back on when I can.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.1

nkirbit (1): yuma
Not Voting (5): mail-mi, Robz888, shraeye, Voltaire, nkirbit

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends on September 6th.

[Voltaire]

Hey everyone, I am so so sorry I wasn't able to do my once-a-day check-in like I said I would. The internet at this hotel is super-spotty and slow 'cause they want you to pay for functioning internet which I did not do. I have not had a chance to catch up on this day but it looks like there hasn't been much. I'll be back for real tomorrow night.

[mail-mi]

Oh yeah this game... I'll hopefully be able to do some stuff tomorrow.

[Robz888]

I'm pretty committed to lynching either mail-mi or yuma at this point... I have convinced myself that both are scum.

[mail-mi]

This seems weird (not necessarily scummy, but definitely weird)

I just said that to be consistent.

All in all, a null-to-scummy read. And it's bad that i have a nullish read this stage...

Why do you point out something that's weird, only to say it's not necessarily scummy.  Do YOU think it's scummy?  do you want US to think it's scummy.  Why might it be scummy and why not?

Unless you have answers for those questions, there's no point behind just calling things out.

It's just the way that he said it. It's a bit scummy, and I don't care if you think its scummy, but it just reads funny to me.

And I didn't put everything into the post. Most everything slightly swayed me one way or the other, and robz swayed me to the scummyish side.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.2

Crickets chirped.

nkirbit (1): yuma
Not Voting (5): mail-mi, Robz888, shraeye, Voltaire, nkirbit

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends on September 6th.

[mail-mi]

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

[Robz888]

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

WHy?

[yuma]

So little going on in this game...

Really the only thing I have to comment on is this:

I'm pretty committed to lynching either mail-mi or yuma at this point... I have convinced myself that both are scum.

How did you reach this conclusion?

And I guess I should ask the same thing of mail-mi as his "reread" of Robz I felt didn't provide any basis for a vote that I saw. It looks much more like a pre-emptive OMGUS on Robz due to the quote above.

Oh... and unvote for now I suppose

[Voltaire]

So I'm back for realz.

I want to re-read yuma. Because he is alive. Really. I know if you're town this puts you in a tough spot. I read your defense but I want to read it again during a re-read.

I'm currently thinking nkirbit may actually be town?

I want to re-read shraeye. Whoever said he's been flying under the radar is right.

[yuma]

So I'm back for realz.

I want to re-read yuma. Because he is alive. Really. I know if you're town this puts you in a tough spot. I read your defense but I want to read it again during a re-read.

I'm currently thinking nkirbit may actually be town?

I want to re-read shraeye. Whoever said he's been flying under the radar is right.

It is less about me being in a tight spot than it is about town being in a tight spot. Because right now I feel like I am the most likely to be lynched today with multiple people suspecting me. I do. And all of it is based off me still being alive from what I can tell. Nothing else has been mentioned, so it appears thats all it is. It puts town in a bad spot because it appears to be a pretty easy mislynch that is being pushed through. "yuma is alive still! He must be scum!" requires very little thought process and even less when it comes to true scum hunting.

nkirbit could very well be town. It means we played a horrible day2, but that happens. I am still leaning toward the scummier side, but I haven't had a chance to reread and see what liopoil being town signifies.

shraeye, yes, has been under the radar. I would lump you right in with him. No one has really suspected you at all this game.

[Voltaire]

It is less about me being in a tight spot than it is about town being in a tight spot. Because right now I feel like I am the most likely to be lynched today with multiple people suspecting me. I do. And all of it is based off me still being alive from what I can tell. Nothing else has been mentioned, so it appears thats all it is. It puts town in a bad spot because it appears to be a pretty easy mislynch that is being pushed through. "yuma is alive still! He must be scum!" requires very little thought process and even less when it comes to true scum hunting.

Trust me, I know. I want to be very cautious here. I do agree the case on you so far is simply that you are alive. But that can be pretty damning. I want to re-read to see what else you've done.

You actually suspected me D1, and then mail-mi sheeped that. And nkirbit switched from thinking I was misguided to thinking I was scum yesterday. Everyone except for shraeye has been suspected by multiple people at some point, I think.

[yuma]

shraye hasn't posted since Friday? I don't remember him saying anything VLA wise.

nkirbit hasn't posted since Thursday? He said he was very, very busy. Too busy to do rereads. But too busy to post?

Request Prod on both shraeye and nkirbit

[Robz888]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

[Robz888]

I also find shraeye and nkirbit's silence troubling, since I believe them both to be town, and therefore extremely important right now.

[yuma]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

Oh the Metro. Good times there...

Looking forward to what you have to say. But I do think it is interesting that you first want to lynch mail-mi or me but second want to do the reread. I think you might have those two reversed...

PPE: And that you have nkirbit and shraeye as town reads. Why do a reread at all. Looks like you already have this game figured out!

[Robz888]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

Oh the Metro. Good times there...

Looking forward to what you have to say. But I do think it is interesting that you first want to lynch mail-mi or me but second want to do the reread. I think you might have those two reversed...

PPE: And that you have nkirbit and shraeye as town reads. Why do a reread at all. Looks like you already have this game figured out!

Yuma, this is not you.* Of course you know that I will totally re-evaluate these opinions if I see conflicting evidence in the re-read.

*because you are scum

[yuma]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

Oh the Metro. Good times there...

Looking forward to what you have to say. But I do think it is interesting that you first want to lynch mail-mi or me but second want to do the reread. I think you might have those two reversed...

PPE: And that you have nkirbit and shraeye as town reads. Why do a reread at all. Looks like you already have this game figured out!

Yuma, this is not you.* Of course you know that I will totally re-evaluate these opinions if I see conflicting evidence in the re-read.

*because you are scum

Will you? When have you ever re-evaluated anything once you had your mind set on it? Your nice little astricks that you added shows this. You have a preconceived notion in your head. You are stuck on it. You won't change it. Why? Because you will turn what ever evidence there is into something that you will interpret as scummy. I could be the towniest person in this game and you would come out with a scum read. This reads Pirates II all over it. You might be right about mail-mi, but you are wrong about me and I guarantee that you won't change your opinion during a reread. The question for me is wether or not town!Robz won't change his opinion because he is stubborn or because scum!Robz won't change his opinion because he thinks I am an easy mislynch.

[Robz888]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

Oh the Metro. Good times there...

Looking forward to what you have to say. But I do think it is interesting that you first want to lynch mail-mi or me but second want to do the reread. I think you might have those two reversed...

PPE: And that you have nkirbit and shraeye as town reads. Why do a reread at all. Looks like you already have this game figured out!

Yuma, this is not you.* Of course you know that I will totally re-evaluate these opinions if I see conflicting evidence in the re-read.

*because you are scum

Will you? When have you ever re-evaluated anything once you had your mind set on it? Your nice little astricks that you added shows this. You have a preconceived notion in your head. You are stuck on it. You won't change it. Why? Because you will turn what ever evidence there is into something that you will interpret as scummy. I could be the towniest person in this game and you would come out with a scum read. This reads Pirates II all over it. You might be right about mail-mi, but you are wrong about me and I guarantee that you won't change your opinion during a reread. The question for me is wether or not town!Robz won't change his opinion because he is stubborn or because scum!Robz won't change his opinion because he thinks I am an easy mislynch.

I don't think this is true AT ALL. I change my mind all the time. I've changed it this game--I thought nkirbit was super scummy yesterday, and no longer think that. I wen tback and forth on ash a lot on Day 1. Am I known for stubbornly clinging to my views, or something? That would be an unearned reputation, I think. Even in Pirates II, I wasn't deadset on my views until the re-read. I was deadset on Galz, but of course the re-read actually did confirm that and I got it right. Way off on the other two--I'm not like praising my scumhunting, here--but that wasn't really an example of what you're accusing me of here.

I don't have a preconceived notion, I have a notion--one that you are currently solidfying. I think you believe that I will correctly peg you as scum when I DO re-read you, and are trying to discredit me before that.

[yuma]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

[Robz888]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

I explained why I have a scumread on you. Isn't it a good thing that I haven't reread yet? Shouldn't you be thinking, "Ah, surely Robz will see how townie on am, after he informs himself of my statements."

[yuma]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

I explained why I have a scumread on you. Isn't it a good thing that I haven't reread yet? Shouldn't you be thinking, "Ah, surely Robz will see how townie on am, after he informs himself of my statements."

What is the reason? I don't know what it is.

[Robz888]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

[Robz888]

So that, in addition to the fact that I find shraeye townie and nkirbit increasingly townie, and there's a little bit of POE.

[yuma]

so shraeye.... I think he is the only player that I haven't totally reread this game at some point or another.

Day1 I feel like is pretty standard shraeye. He was elusive with his reads. Asked a lot of questions. Voted occasionally, but wasn't a leading voice until his case on voltgloss. I get why shraeye doesn't like posting scum to chum lists. I do. But it does make reading shraeye himself difficult. Through a reread I know that shraeye had scum reads on nkirbit, seemed to be of voltaire (but I don't think he ever fully expressed it), has no read on ashersky whatsoever.

This post jumped out to me as a possible source for shraeye's case on voltgloss: (that is a reason for developing a case)

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

Well, in that regard, I still like ash's suspicions on Voltgloss more than your "he just is a gut-feel"-vote on ash, where you also keep sheeping any and all other points that people bring up against ash.

And just 2 posts later shraeye comes out with his case on voltgloss... I feel frustrated that this case didn't actually get analyzed. But instead it was just the "slip" that was analyzed...

But let's actually look at it now... point by point. (realizing of course that we know now that voltgloss is town, thus meaning the case is incorrect, but that isn't the point, the point is why did he make it and what does it say about him?)

1. setting up future mislynches. First, I think this is always going to be a bad point. mcmc will disagree with me because I think he is the father of this concept. But setting up future mislynches... is I think extremely difficult to pull off as scum. It means you have to be in absolutely complete control of the game and have to be a leading voice over town. I think it is something you can go back and prove after a series of days, but to try and show it day1... That's a stretch. I don't know if shraeye meant to show that the most important points were given first, but if he did then this case is already pretty bad.

2. Tons of opened ended questions... "what do you think of..." I don't see how this is scummy. I know that for new scum players, this can sometimes be seen as a "testing the waters" move. But voltgloss is certainly not new to this game. It was typical play of a vet who likes to get people to take stances and put down their opinions.

3. demanding people make lists... shraeye gives the same reasoning as #2 for why this is scummy. Again, I get why shraeye might think this is bad for town, but I don't get why he thinks it is scummy.

4. the slips. See my other posts for why I think this was bad.

So really, I disagree with the entire case that shraeye came up with. I for one know that I was distracted enough by the slips that I wasn't able to fully go through the case itself. I think others did the exact same thing, in fact I know they did, because in rereading it appears only Robz said anything about the case itself. He said this:

Robz even said this:

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

[Robz888]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

But you're just getting ahead of yourself here, man. I haven't even voted for you.

[Voltaire]

I still don't like yuma's I-told-you-so stuff from D2. Robz says it best here

And also, thee's something to this as a self-fulfilling prophecy, because you put out this sort of in-your-face statement, I Told You So (you even bolded it!), that we shouldn't have done that lynch and that there will be ntohing to talk about because of it. So of course, we aren't doing much flip analysis because we are arguing about whether your statement was correct.

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

which brings me back to this (updated):

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's really no defense yuma can actually give give against 1 (but that's not his fault). It's a fundamentals thing (like many political elections, election junky nerd moment). And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

We could be in lylo. Say SK is dead, 2 mafia, we mislynch, mafia kills, we lose. So I am not comfortable voting for anyone yet, because I basically I need to rank my own "case" on everyone against each other if we possibly only have one more chance.

I am currently treating Robz as town. It's basically my only "strong" town read.

PPE: I see the Robz-yuma stuff has been going on while I was working on this post. Yuma comes off scummier for it. It makes me feel much better actually.

[shraeye]

It is less about me being in a tight spot than it is about town being in a tight spot. Because right now I feel like I am the most likely to be lynched today with multiple people suspecting me. I do. And all of it is based off me still being alive from what I can tell. Nothing else has been mentioned, so it appears thats all it is. It puts town in a bad spot because it appears to be a pretty easy mislynch that is being pushed through.

You think your lynch is the most likely as of this post?

Is it just because multiple people suspect you, or anything else.

While I'm asking questions, what do you think of the likelihood that either Eevee or Jorbles was scum?

[shraeye]

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

But you're just getting ahead of yourself here, man. I haven't even voted for you.

Why am I getting ahead of myself. If you bring me up and I think it is wrong I will react back regardless of whether or not someone is voting for me (see voltaire and spiritbears on me in SimpleMafia).

(And you have already said that you will likely be voting for me or mail-mi, so you basically are 50% voting for me at this point.)

[shraeye]

And just 2 posts later shraeye comes out with his case on voltgloss... I feel frustrated that this case didn't actually get analyzed. But instead it was just the "slip" that was analyzed...

I feel frustrated too.  I liked the case, and really had the tags as just a part of it.  But when Voltgloss had an explanatino that didn't add up in my mind, that became the key reason, and even I overfocused on it. 

1. setting up future mislynches. First, I think this is always going to be a bad point. mcmc will disagree with me because I think he is the father of this concept. But setting up future mislynches... is I think extremely difficult to pull off as scum. It means you have to be in absolutely complete control of the game and have to be a leading voice over town. I think it is something you can go back and prove after a series of days, but to try and show it day1... That's a stretch. I don't know if shraeye meant to show that the most important points were given first, but if he did then this case is already pretty bad.

I didn't mean for the points to be organized like that.  I make my rereads into a Notepad file, and then copy/paste things together as I notice trends and linked topics.  They just got organized the way that they did on the page out of mostly chance, and they'll have a slight correspondence with time at which I first noticed a particular trend occuring. That is a terribly contructed sentence.  I don't always love the mislynch argument, but I think that if any player is going to pull off a set of orchestrated lynches, it's Voltgloss, especially if he has daychat to try to give directions to his partner to help shut down distractions and focus on his plan.  Combining this with the control over town that Voltgloss was ALREADY showing, and the lists that I think help scum more than town. Those are my case thoughts.

[yuma]

2. Lio was town

which brings me back to this (updated):

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's really no defense yuma can actually give give against 1 (but that's not his fault). It's a fundamentals thing (like many political elections, election junky nerd moment). And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

We could be in lylo. Say SK is dead, 2 mafia, we mislynch, mafia kills, we lose. So I am not comfortable voting for anyone yet, because I basically I need to rank my own "case" on everyone against each other if we possibly only have one more chance.

I am currently treating Robz as town. It's basically my only "strong" town read.

PPE: I see the Robz-yuma stuff has been going on while I was working on this post. Yuma comes off scummier for it. It makes me feel much better actually.

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

To add to that though, 1. if I were mafia then being on the lio lynch (being really the deciding vote on the lio wagon--that is the vote that made nkirbit unlikely to happen thus making lio the eminent lynch) would have been a bad move to do the PoE.

Why is Robz a "strong" townread? Why aren't you applying the same logic of "yuma is still alive" to me, but not to him? If anyone has a reputation of being killed off during nights when he is town it is him, not me.

And lastly... why do I come off scummy because of my conversation with Robz?

[Voltaire]

Finishing updating the D1 votes and adding D2. Players of unknown alignment in gray (with the exception of UoChairs).

DAY ONE

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi, (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

DAY TWO

nkirbit (1): Voltaire
Robz888 (2): liopoil, Jorbles
liopoil (5): nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma, shraeye

Not Voting (1): Eevee

[shraeye]

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

What?  why is lio town a damning argument for yuma?  nkirbit/Robz were both sold on liopoil, and I was the hammerer.  Why pick yuma out of that crowd and assign particular blame to him??

And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

what comments?

[shraeye]

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

Yes i agree; and it's especially hard because we can't be sure of ash/Eevee/Jorbles' alignments.

[Voltaire]

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

To add to that though, 1. if I were mafia then being on the lio lynch (being really the deciding vote on the lio wagon--that is the vote that made nkirbit unlikely to happen thus making lio the eminent lynch) would have been a bad move to do the PoE.

Why is Robz a "strong" townread? Why aren't you applying the same logic of "yuma is still alive" to me, but not to him? If anyone has a reputation of being killed off during nights when he is town it is him, not me.

And lastly... why do I come off scummy because of my conversation with Robz?

Can you explain your "to add to that"? I'm not following.

Robz is a "strong" read because I don't have any strong reads in this game and he's the least uncertain. We have been reaching very similar conclusions. So I think that either he is town or he is scum who is happy to have me agreeing with him. I am working as though it is the former.

And you come off scummy in your conversation here:

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

That is a read. You are trying to belittle is reads so they don't seem useful.

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

And this too.

[Voltaire]

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

What?  why is lio town a damning argument for yuma?  nkirbit/Robz were both sold on liopoil, and I was the hammerer.  Why pick yuma out of that crowd and assign particular blame to him??

And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

what comments?

You're missing that 2 is related to the vote counts. Here's what lio said (NOTE: turns out it was Jorbles. I realized this when I went back for the quote). It has me thinking. I refuse to believe that wagons are not useful.

Do you think all the scum were on the wagon because if you think even one of them was off wagon it makes as much sense to go offwagon? From your perspective it makes more sense to go offwagon. (eliminating yourself you get 50% chance of scum offwagon if you think there's one scum there vs 33% chance of scum on wagon if there's 2 scum there) I see yuma is making a case on me, which I will address when I've caught up on my reads. I have an excuse for lurking the last few days which you may or may not believe because it involves RL stuff, but I'll come to that in the next post.

[Voltaire]

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

What's the rest of this? You've posted in reply to me and Robz since.

[mail-mi]

@yuma on shraeye: This does look like shraeye could be setting up a fake case for Voltgloss. I need to reread him.

@D2 wagon analysis: I'm probably jumping into a whole boatload of WIFOM, but because he is the only player alive that wasn't on lio, and that scum killed 2 off wagon, I have a townier read on volt.

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

I think he is townier than others were making him out to be yesterday, and of the two people I've reread, Robz was the scummier one.

[yuma]

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

What's the rest of this? You've posted in reply to me and Robz since.

This is me annoyed.

You want me to do the rest of the reread (so more of day1, day2 and day3) in between the time I came back from having lunch (3:25 my time according to my first post since being back) and the time when you are calling me out? (3:41 my time) So a whole 16 minutes?

Yeah, let me whip that up for you... oh and reply to the comments that I did reply to because there were there so that I woulnd't leave people hanging.

You will get my reread when you get it. I am certainly not on your (or anyone else's) timetable here. So bug off.

[shraeye]

mail-mi...off the top of your head, what do you think of yuma?

[Voltaire]

So bug off.

This sure makes the game fun.

[mail-mi]

mail-mi...off the top of your head, what do you think of yuma?

I get the concern that he is still alive--which is a valid concern--but speaking from experience, there are often better options.

Also this: Him not getting killed also can signify neither mafia nor SK thinking he is scum.

So, I could go for Yuma, but he is not my preferred lynch.

[Robz888]

I still think yuma is scummy, but let's give the guy like a break here on the amount of working we are asking him to do, he's got way bigger personal things going on and he's still like contributing more than anyone else, so... I think he has definitely done everything he should have, and has answered questons and stuff.

[Voltaire]

I still think yuma is scummy, but let's give the guy like a break here on the amount of working we are asking him to do, he's got way bigger personal things going on and he's still like contributing more than anyone else, so... I think he has definitely done everything he should have, and has answered questons and stuff.

I actually agree with this. But I did not appreciate the approach that post took to making its point.

[yuma]

Can you explain your "to add to that"? I'm not following.

You are implying that since lio and I were the only ones not voting for Voltgloss one of us must be mafia. Right? Hence the wagon analysis. If you follow that belief then it must have been extremely bad play for me to want to be on lio's wagon. Because if I am mafia then I know he isn't (hence he would be one player that I wouldn't want to lynch because of the PoE). But I was on the lio wagon. Not only was I on it, I was the player who made it become THE wagon for day2 turning away from nkirbit to liopoil at a time when it still could have been either person to go through.

Robz is a "strong" read because I don't have any strong reads in this game and he's the least uncertain. We have been reaching very similar conclusions. So I think that either he is town or he is scum who is happy to have me agreeing with him. I am working as though it is the former.

Why are you happy to work with it as the former. For a "strong" town read this seems more like a 50/50 chance. But you are just assuming it is the 50% where he is town. I don't think this is a valid rationale unless there is something you are leaving out.

And you come off scummy in your conversation here:

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

That is a read. You are trying to belittle is reads so they don't seem useful.

It isn't a read. He doesn't say anything about me being or acting or playing scummy. It is a PoE, not a read. And bad PoE at that. I have asked him to explain his read. He has only given me this. It isn't enough for me.

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

And this too.

Do you disagree with the statement in bold? Because it does seem like he knows what he is going to find. The question is whether he is doing this as town or as mafia. I am not sure which.

[yuma]

So bug off.

This sure makes the game fun.

So does being asked ridiculous demands.

[yuma]

I still think yuma is scummy, but let's give the guy like a break here on the amount of working we are asking him to do, he's got way bigger personal things going on and he's still like contributing more than anyone else, so... I think he has definitely done everything he should have, and has answered questons and stuff.

I actually agree with this. But I did not appreciate the approach that post took to making its point.

I am not trying to offend or be rude. I never try to do that. But I do take issue with being asked (and having that asking imply scuminess) of things I am not physically capable of doing.

I think what I meant to say had I not allowed by annoyedness to leak through was "I am a bit busy with stuff and with answering the other questions you guys are throwing at me, I'll get to it when I can."

[Voltaire]

So bug off.

This sure makes the game fun.

So does being asked ridiculous demands.

I am sorry if it came across as a demand. It certainly was not.

[Voltaire]

I think what I meant to say had I not allowed by annoyedness to leak through was "I am a bit busy with stuff and with answering the other questions you guys are throwing at me, I'll get to it when I can."

Which is cool. Thanks.

[shraeye]

I'm thinking things through and I'm leaning towards yuma town.  I'm toying with the idea that lurkers (eevee/jorbles) were shot at because scum is loving hte status quo.

When yuma was absent this weekend, the entire game stagnated it seemed.  I don't think we're gonna hit scum by going after the guy who was keeping the thread moving along.


My suspicions are tilting towards nkirbit

Wow, I was very wrong about Liopoil.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

Robz, I guess it is surprising that Yuma is alive, but I'm not necessarily sure that indicates that he's not town.. if he were scum, he would be a good target for the other team too, right?

Here's a thought:  The SK, at this point during the night, is probably focused on shooting mafia as opposed to shooting town.  Is there anyone who had a scum-read on Eevee or Jorbles?  Perhaps we can find an SK there.  I'm worried that there wasn't, though, because all the active players were pretty much ignoring the inactive ones.

I don't like this post, as it makes an implicit assumption that Eevee/Jorbles aren't scum.

This sounds like nkirbit was thinking a lot over the night phase trying to see where the opposing scum were, and then got disappointed when they weren't scum.  "That theory" would only be completely shot if nkirbit knew that Eevee/Jorbles were both town.  He also looks preoccupied with finding the SK, as his last's paragraphs analysis could have applied to either team, and he only referenced one.

His next post talks about moving away from yesterday's suspects because scum was happy to keep status quo.  Well, that certainly would also mean that we shift suspicion away from him.  What is scummy about this is that he in the same breath says that yuma/Voltaire also were part of yesterday's suspicion-fest.  I don't remember anybody seriously discussing lynching yuma or Voltaire during day2.  So it looks like nkirbit is suggesting that we look "away" from a certain subset of people, and that subset is basically those who had scumreads on him.  This feels like a quick/dirty way to simultaneously redirect from yourself while trying to gain allies to agree with your point of view at the same time.

vote:nkirbit

[Voltaire]

Robz is a "strong" read because I don't have any strong reads in this game and he's the least uncertain. We have been reaching very similar conclusions. So I think that either he is town or he is scum who is happy to have me agreeing with him. I am working as though it is the former.

Why are you happy to work with it as the former. For a "strong" town read this seems more like a 50/50 chance. But you are just assuming it is the 50% where he is town. I don't think this is a valid rationale unless there is something you are leaving out.

Well, if three scum are alive then everyone has a 60% chance of being scum. And I am not assuming anything.

[Voltaire]

It isn't a read. He doesn't say anything about me being or acting or playing scummy. It is a PoE, not a read. And bad PoE at that. I have asked him to explain his read. He has only given me this. It isn't enough for me.

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

And this too.

Do you disagree with the statement in bold? Because it does seem like he knows what he is going to find. The question is whether he is doing this as town or as mafia. I am not sure which.

I think that it is poisoning the well ie making it seem as though the explanation he is likely to give has been pre-judged as not valid.

[yuma]

It isn't a read. He doesn't say anything about me being or acting or playing scummy. It is a PoE, not a read. And bad PoE at that. I have asked him to explain his read. He has only given me this. It isn't enough for me.

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

And this too.

Do you disagree with the statement in bold? Because it does seem like he knows what he is going to find. The question is whether he is doing this as town or as mafia. I am not sure which.

I think that it is poisoning the well ie making it seem as though the explanation he is likely to give has been pre-judged as not valid.

But that isn't the point. The point is that he has already given his judgement. I want his explanation before his judgement. But because he has been unwilling/unable to do so I do question whether or not his delayed judgement has validity... and in my opinion rightly so. Why? Because it is delayed and backwards. I see no problem with this. If Robz doesn't want me to question validity he should do due diligence and then give a read. Not the other way around. At least not as emphatically as he did earlier by basically eliminating everyone but me and mail-mi w/o cause.

[yuma]

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

Continuing on this line of thought:

So while I disagree with shraeye's case (and I admit it is easy to do in hindsight... and I need to take into considation it was was a day1 case...) I don't know if I find him scummy for it. Really the only thing that makes me a bit cautious was his mention that he "liked" ash's case on voltgloss and potentially used that as a springboard knowing that he had some support already from ash... Somewhat on the scummier side, but town can do this as well. See something from someone else and build upon it...

Well, in that regard, I still like ash's suspicions on Voltgloss more than your "he just is a gut-feel"-vote on ash, where you also keep sheeping any and all other points that people bring up against ash.

Day2 shraeye put in a huge amount of work. Rereads all around... I still don't think that much of anything in analyzing the voltgloss wagon is useful. We both thought shraeye found something with liopoil... that ended up being wrong, again. But he did do a lot of work to dig up the stuff, comment on it and see if it fit into the cases he was building.

Shraeye reread Robz, liopoil and voltaire... Town on the bookends and scummy in the middle. Another thing to point out is that shraeye never really considered lynching anywhere but liopoil day2. Is this a townie trait or a scummy one? Instinct says it is a townie trait. Being "sure" and not willing to go with the flow like scum often is.

Day3

his main focus has been on nkirbit. First for the "beating drum" about "knowing shraeye's style"
Pretty much good questioning and trying to figure things out.

Really... I think at this point I have a townread on shraeye. He has flown under the radar, yes, but I think that is because he hasn't done much of anything to warrant real suspicion...

[shraeye]

@yuma on shraeye: This does look like shraeye could be setting up a fake case for Voltgloss. I need to reread him.

@D2 wagon analysis: I'm probably jumping into a whole boatload of WIFOM, but because he is the only player alive that wasn't on lio, and that scum killed 2 off wagon, I have a townier read on volt.

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

I think he is townier than others were making him out to be yesterday, and of the two people I've reread, Robz was the scummier one.

what was scummy about Robz in particular?  What was towny from nkirbit?  I'm, like, askin' for examples and stuff.

[Robz888]

My re-read is going painfully slowly and I'm not learning anything new. No reveals really sucks.

[mail-mi]

@yuma on shraeye: This does look like shraeye could be setting up a fake case for Voltgloss. I need to reread him.

@D2 wagon analysis: I'm probably jumping into a whole boatload of WIFOM, but because he is the only player alive that wasn't on lio, and that scum killed 2 off wagon, I have a townier read on volt.

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

I think he is townier than others were making him out to be yesterday, and of the two people I've reread, Robz was the scummier one.

what was scummy about Robz in particular?  What was towny from nkirbit?  I'm, like, askin' for examples and stuff.

Nkirbit I think defended himself well for the accusations on him, and robz is the scummier out of the two I reread. That may change as I reread others.

[shraeye]

arg...what were the accusations, and what were his defenses with regard to nkirbit?

And STILL I haven't seen an example of something scummy from Robz.

Please give me something I can analyze and work with.  A quote; your interpretation of it.  More than just "oh yeah, he felt scummier"

[mail-mi]

arg...what were the accusations, and what were his defenses with regard to nkirbit?

And STILL I haven't seen an example of something scummy from Robz.

Please give me something I can analyze and work with.  A quote; your interpretation of it.  More than just "oh yeah, he felt scummier"

I'll pull up some quotes later when not on mobile, but his "mirroring" and "acti-lurking" he defended himself well.

Robz... This is gonna sound bad, but he's more of a gut feel.

[Voltaire]

nkirbit hasn't posted since Thursday? He said he was very, very busy. Too busy to do rereads. But too busy to post?

Request Prod on both shraeye and nkirbit

nkirbit, are you out there?

[Voltaire]

My suspicions are tilting towards nkirbit

Wow, I was very wrong about Liopoil.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

Robz, I guess it is surprising that Yuma is alive, but I'm not necessarily sure that indicates that he's not town.. if he were scum, he would be a good target for the other team too, right?

Here's a thought:  The SK, at this point during the night, is probably focused on shooting mafia as opposed to shooting town.  Is there anyone who had a scum-read on Eevee or Jorbles?  Perhaps we can find an SK there.  I'm worried that there wasn't, though, because all the active players were pretty much ignoring the inactive ones.

I don't like this post, as it makes an implicit assumption that Eevee/Jorbles aren't scum.

This sounds like nkirbit was thinking a lot over the night phase trying to see where the opposing scum were, and then got disappointed when they weren't scum.  "That theory" would only be completely shot if nkirbit knew that Eevee/Jorbles were both town.  He also looks preoccupied with finding the SK, as his last's paragraphs analysis could have applied to either team, and he only referenced one.

His next post talks about moving away from yesterday's suspects because scum was happy to keep status quo.  Well, that certainly would also mean that we shift suspicion away from him.  What is scummy about this is that he in the same breath says that yuma/Voltaire also were part of yesterday's suspicion-fest.  I don't remember anybody seriously discussing lynching yuma or Voltaire during day2.  So it looks like nkirbit is suggesting that we look "away" from a certain subset of people, and that subset is basically those who had scumreads on him.  This feels like a quick/dirty way to simultaneously redirect from yourself while trying to gain allies to agree with your point of view at the same time.

vote:nkirbit

So this is actually a very good case on nkirbit, again. I don't think that yuma or myself were D2 lynches at any point. scum!Chairs got tripped up by this sort of thing in HP. I want to hear nkirbit answer the Jorbles/Eevee part of it.

[nkirbit]

nkirbit hasn't posted since Thursday? He said he was very, very busy. Too busy to do rereads. But too busy to post?

Request Prod on both shraeye and nkirbit

nkirbit, are you out there?

Yes, I have been prodded.  Here I am!

[nkirbit]

My suspicions are tilting towards nkirbit

Wow, I was very wrong about Liopoil.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

Robz, I guess it is surprising that Yuma is alive, but I'm not necessarily sure that indicates that he's not town.. if he were scum, he would be a good target for the other team too, right?

Here's a thought:  The SK, at this point during the night, is probably focused on shooting mafia as opposed to shooting town.  Is there anyone who had a scum-read on Eevee or Jorbles?  Perhaps we can find an SK there.  I'm worried that there wasn't, though, because all the active players were pretty much ignoring the inactive ones.

I don't like this post, as it makes an implicit assumption that Eevee/Jorbles aren't scum.

This sounds like nkirbit was thinking a lot over the night phase trying to see where the opposing scum were, and then got disappointed when they weren't scum.  "That theory" would only be completely shot if nkirbit knew that Eevee/Jorbles were both town.  He also looks preoccupied with finding the SK, as his last's paragraphs analysis could have applied to either team, and he only referenced one.

His next post talks about moving away from yesterday's suspects because scum was happy to keep status quo.  Well, that certainly would also mean that we shift suspicion away from him.  What is scummy about this is that he in the same breath says that yuma/Voltaire also were part of yesterday's suspicion-fest.  I don't remember anybody seriously discussing lynching yuma or Voltaire during day2.  So it looks like nkirbit is suggesting that we look "away" from a certain subset of people, and that subset is basically those who had scumreads on him.  This feels like a quick/dirty way to simultaneously redirect from yourself while trying to gain allies to agree with your point of view at the same time.

vote:nkirbit

So this is actually a very good case on nkirbit, again. I don't think that yuma or myself were D2 lynches at any point. scum!Chairs got tripped up by this sort of thing in HP. I want to hear nkirbit answer the Jorbles/Eevee part of it.

No, I don't know that Jorbles/Eevee were town.  They could be, could not be, one could be one couldn't be.

I was worried that scum had lurked their way through day2, and had been planning on looking into both Jorbles and Eevee (who were the two major lurkers), and see if I could find anything scummy about them.  Obviously, I don't need to do that anymore, since they're both dead!

[nkirbit]

arg...what were the accusations, and what were his defenses with regard to nkirbit?

And STILL I haven't seen an example of something scummy from Robz.

Please give me something I can analyze and work with.  A quote; your interpretation of it.  More than just "oh yeah, he felt scummier"

The one thing that I think is scummy about Robz:

When he made his case on me day2, one of the premises in that case was that I was, "Making an attempt to appear active without actually contributing much."  That just wasn't true, as I had not posted in about three days entirely.  He miscategorized me, and then found me scummy for that miscategorization.  I think such an action is more likely to come from a scum member who is looking for a reason to paint a player as scummy than it is from a town member who is trying to puzzle out who the scum are.

[Voltaire]

The one thing that I think is scummy about Robz:

When he made his case on me day2, one of the premises in that case was that I was, "Making an attempt to appear active without actually contributing much."  That just wasn't true, as I had not posted in about three days entirely.  He miscategorized me, and then found me scummy for that miscategorization.  I think such an action is more likely to come from a scum member who is looking for a reason to paint a player as scummy than it is from a town member who is trying to puzzle out who the scum are.

nkirbit, have you re-read Robz's D3?

[nkirbit]

I thought day2 and still think that Voltaire's defense of Liopoil was very flimsy.  It really read to me like he had a vested interest in not being on the Liopoil wagon.

In the above post defending Liopoil, Voltaire's major reasoning for not being on the Lio wagon is that he thinks Lio is engaging in legitimate scumhunting.  Sure.

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Here we have Voltaire agreeing that Liopoil appearing to be scumhunting isn't a great defense of Liopoil because of the setup of the game.  So, Voltaire's main earlier stated reasoning for depending Liopoil is gone.

Now Voltaire shifts his defense to the fact that too many people are willing to lynch Liopoil, which I don't buy, especially when exactly five players indicated that they would be willing to lynch Lio.

At no point does Voltaire ever specifically address the cases presented by Shraeye, myself, or others.  He just throws out vague defenses, and when one defense got shot down, immediately slid to another.

I know that Lio did flip town, so it's not the most incriminating evidence towards Voltaire, but he really does appear to me to have made a decision to appear off-wagon for the Lio lynch.  I initially thought that it was because he was Lio's scumbuddy, but that's obviously not the case now.  But I think he could be scum trying to get towncred for opposing a mislynch.

[nkirbit]

The one thing that I think is scummy about Robz:

When he made his case on me day2, one of the premises in that case was that I was, "Making an attempt to appear active without actually contributing much."  That just wasn't true, as I had not posted in about three days entirely.  He miscategorized me, and then found me scummy for that miscategorization.  I think such an action is more likely to come from a scum member who is looking for a reason to paint a player as scummy than it is from a town member who is trying to puzzle out who the scum are.

nkirbit, have you re-read Robz's D3?

I have read everything, but not terribly closely.. I'll go back and re-read it now.

[Voltaire]

I know that Lio did flip town, so it's not the most incriminating evidence towards Voltaire, but he really does appear to me to have made a decision to appear off-wagon for the Lio lynch.  I initially thought that it was because he was Lio's scumbuddy, but that's obviously not the case now.  But I think he could be scum trying to get towncred for opposing a mislynch.

So if lio flipped scum I'm scum, and if (now when) lio flipped town I'm scum...you see why I have a hard time following you.

As for your case on me, it's that I wanted cred for lio flipping town. But I was not sure on lio (yes yes yes I said leaning town near the end of the day). I tried to get a stronger read lynched (you). I stand by that.

(and the numbers thing has already been covered, I thought there were more than there were.) You chose not to cover that.

I am beginning to think nkirbit is once again a good lynch, both for his approach to me, shraeye's case on him, and his poor explanation of the Eevee/Jorbles statement. And heck, all the D1/D2 stuff too.

Wow, I was very wrong about Liopoil.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

Robz, I guess it is surprising that Yuma is alive, but I'm not necessarily sure that indicates that he's not town.. if he were scum, he would be a good target for the other team too, right?

Here's a thought:  The SK, at this point during the night, is probably focused on shooting mafia as opposed to shooting town.  Is there anyone who had a scum-read on Eevee or Jorbles?  Perhaps we can find an SK there.  I'm worried that there wasn't, though, because all the active players were pretty much ignoring the inactive ones.

I don't like this post, as it makes an implicit assumption that Eevee/Jorbles aren't scum.

This sounds like nkirbit was thinking a lot over the night phase trying to see where the opposing scum were, and then got disappointed when they weren't scum.  "That theory" would only be completely shot if nkirbit knew that Eevee/Jorbles were both town.  He also looks preoccupied with finding the SK, as his last's paragraphs analysis could have applied to either team, and he only referenced one.

His next post talks about moving away from yesterday's suspects because scum was happy to keep status quo.  Well, that certainly would also mean that we shift suspicion away from him.  What is scummy about this is that he in the same breath says that yuma/Voltaire also were part of yesterday's suspicion-fest.  I don't remember anybody seriously discussing lynching yuma or Voltaire during day2.  So it looks like nkirbit is suggesting that we look "away" from a certain subset of people, and that subset is basically those who had scumreads on him.  This feels like a quick/dirty way to simultaneously redirect from yourself while trying to gain allies to agree with your point of view at the same time.

vote:nkirbit

So this is actually a very good case on nkirbit, again. I don't think that yuma or myself were D2 lynches at any point. scum!Chairs got tripped up by this sort of thing in HP. I want to hear nkirbit answer the Jorbles/Eevee part of it.

No, I don't know that Jorbles/Eevee were town.  They could be, could not be, one could be one couldn't be.

I was worried that scum had lurked their way through day2, and had been planning on looking into both Jorbles and Eevee (who were the two major lurkers), and see if I could find anything scummy about them.  Obviously, I don't need to do that anymore, since they're both dead!

Your explanation does not explain why you said "that theory is completely shot". What if there's scum in Eevee/Jorbles? Your theory would be right. Their death says nothing about your theory.

Actually I feel really good about nkirbit again. vote: nkirbit.

[nkirbit]

Well, I think that if I spent time analyzing whether Eevee and Jorbles were town or scum based on their day two actions, it'd just be a waste of time.  I might come up with something, but I'd have no way to know if I'm correct or not.

There's enough in the game about alive players that I'm not going to be able to look at fully.. I'm sure as hell not wasting time re-reading dead players to any great extent.  I'm going to focus on the alive ones.

[nkirbit]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

This is exactly the same worry I was having.  If I'm scum, I'm taking out the town-leadingest voices first.  But there are two teams, so for yuma to be town, TWO teams had to have not wanted to kill him.  There obviously is incentive for the non-yuma team to shoot at him, so this line of reasoning leads me to suspect...well now that I think about it pretty much everyone but Robz.  I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

I have a little bit of an issue with how this is phrased.  Maybe I'm looking into this too much, but this sentence really comes off to me as saying, "Okay, let's start with the assumption that Nkirbit is guilty and find evidence to support it" rather than saying, "Let's look at this evidence neutrally and see what we can learn from it."  It's just very leading. 

Furthermore, when Yuma says that the main proponents of the Nkirbit lynch (Yuma, Robz, Voltaire) were all still alive (#1033), and this isn't a good reason to be suspicious of me, Shraeye never acknowledges it, just moves past it and finds me scummy for other reasons.  Definitely not a neutral re-read from Shraeye on this point.

[nkirbit]

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

So how do you feel about voltaire now that you've seen liio's flip?

I still get the feeling like he had decided he was going to be off-wagon for the Lio lynch.  Even after multiple defenses he made for Lio were objected to, he never really went back and reconsidered the case.  It's sort of odd for me to criticize him for this, because he was right, but his actions read to me as someone who knew what the flip was going to be rather than someone who was struggling to figure out what the correct answer was.

[Voltaire]

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

Well, I think that if I spent time analyzing whether Eevee and Jorbles were town or scum based on their day two actions, it'd just be a waste of time.  I might come up with something, but I'd have no way to know if I'm correct or not.

There's enough in the game about alive players that I'm not going to be able to look at fully.. I'm sure as hell not wasting time re-reading dead players to any great extent.  I'm going to focus on the alive ones.

This certainly wasn't your attitude before. Any reason?

[nkirbit]

The player we should be looking at the most is Ash, I think.  We should make the assumption he's town, because with only two kills, I do think that's very likely the case.  We know why Chairs was killed:  he was the cop.  But why was Ashersky killed?  It wasn't because he was obv-town, as a number of players were suspicious of him right up until Voltglosses "slip", and even past that.  So why was he the kill?

Well, I think that if I spent time analyzing whether Eevee and Jorbles were town or scum based on their day two actions, it'd just be a waste of time.  I might come up with something, but I'd have no way to know if I'm correct or not.

There's enough in the game about alive players that I'm not going to be able to look at fully.. I'm sure as hell not wasting time re-reading dead players to any great extent.  I'm going to focus on the alive ones.

This certainly wasn't your attitude before. Any reason?

Player we should be looking at most is Ash was out of the group of Ash and Chairs.  We should look at Ash more than Chairs.  And I did, because I made a few brief posts about Ash, but none about Chairs.  I wasn't suggesting looking at Ash more than any of the alive players, and I didn't look at Ash more than any of the alive players.  You're taking that first part out of context.

I think it would be appropriate to re-read Eevee and Jorbles and say, "here are there stated views, maybe we can make some conclusion out of them".  But I'm not going to sit down and analyze specific interactions players had with them and saying, "Well, I think that Eevee is 50% town, and Jorbles is 70% town" or something like that.  I have not done so yet because I've been busy.  Maybe I will at some point.

All I was saying was that during the night, I had been thinking about giving Eevee and Jorbles a good hard look because they had escaped that day2.  But when they showed up dead, well, I didn't need to do that anymore!

[nkirbit]

Okay, so Robz today:

-Says its odd that Yuma is alive.  I get what he's saying here, although I agree with Yuma that the same could be said of both Robz and Shraeye.

I'm actually reminded of something that Eevee said in Ninjas and Samurais (I think?):  "Robz is trying this game!  He must be scum!"  Robz is trying hard here!  Obviously, I'd rather not lynch someone for something like this, and wouldn't want to lynch Yuma for being alive.  But I don't think it's scummy for bringing up something like that.  Completely null.

I agree that the two quotes Yuma put next to each other are odd.  However, it actually gives me a town-read on Robz for this reason:

I know I'm town.  I think we're late enough in the game where the priority of scum is to lynch someone not on their team, rather than doing something like opposing a town lynch to get town credit.  If Robz is scum, he's fabricating a reason to not suspect me, and that just doesn't make sense for scum to do at this point.  Why would a scum make up a reason to support a town member this late in the game?

Obviously, this isn't a great line of reasoning for everyone else, because it rests on the assumption that I'm town, and you just can't know that to be true.  But this part actually gives Robz townpoints in my eyes.



I don't like his POE on Yuma.  I think that POE's extremely dangerous, given that we don't know exactly how many scum are in the game still.  If we assume there are three, and there's only 2, and we lynch based on POE... yeah, bad things could happen.  So I disagree with his conclusion that Yuma has to be scummy.


Robz is probably my top town-read now.  Not a strong town-read, but I don't have any strong town reads!


Anyway, you asked me to re-read Robz day3.... what were you hoping I would find?  It was sort of a leading question.

[Voltaire]

Anyway, you asked me to re-read Robz day3.... what were you hoping I would find?  It was sort of a leading question.

Actually I tried to phrase it as unleadingly as possible. unvote.

[nkirbit]

I must say that I haven't a freaking clue about Mail-Mi.  He's very scummy, but he always is.

I probably wouldn't want to lynch there, though, unless there's a compelling reasons that he's scummier than normal, and I just haven't seen it yet.  Statistics!

We know that every player, at the start of the game, has a 3/12 chance of being scum.  That chance has since gone up, since we have some evidence that they're scum... the fact that they haven't yet been nightkilled!  Because all of us are still alive, our chances of being scum are, I don't know, 2.5/6 or so?  Assuming 2-3 scum alive.

However, I don't think that math really applies to mail-mi.  Mail-mi just doesn't get NKed as town.  I don't ever recall it happening, and I've probably played over half a dozen games with him so far.  So the fact that mail-mi hasn't been NKed doesn't make him that much more likely to be scum, since he doesn't get NKed at town anyway, wheras the rest of us probably do with more regularity.

In fact, this is kind of the reverse argument that Robz stated about Yuma.. he's much more likely to be scum because he always gets Night Killed!

I'm not saying that we should lynch Yuma because of this, or not lynch mail-mi because of this.. we should follow the evidence.  But in mail-mi's case, I haven't seen anything at all that let's me distinguish him one way or the other, so I just think lynching mail-mi is not much better than hoping to hit 3/12 odds.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, you asked me to re-read Robz day3.... what were you hoping I would find?  It was sort of a leading question.

Actually I tried to phrase it as unleadingly as possible. unvote.

You did ask me to re-read Robz specifically... why Robz? 

[Voltaire]

Anyway, you asked me to re-read Robz day3.... what were you hoping I would find?  It was sort of a leading question.

Actually I tried to phrase it as unleadingly as possible. unvote.

You did ask me to re-read Robz specifically... why Robz?

Because I thought you were scum and I think Robz is town. And now you think Robz is town. So...I'm still puzzling through some things.

[shraeye]

No, I don't know that Jorbles/Eevee were town.  They could be, could not be, one could be one couldn't be.

I was worried that scum had lurked their way through day2, and had been planning on looking into both Jorbles and Eevee (who were the two major lurkers), and see if I could find anything scummy about them.  Obviously, I don't need to do that anymore, since they're both dead!

I strongly disagree that Eevee/Jorbles aren't worth looking at.  It's critical that town start lynching scum, and it's worth it to see if either is likely to be scum, because that might help us find their partner.  If you go back and read your original quote, I really can't put any subtext behind it other than you acknowledging that you 'know' them to be town.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

You're theory that they were scum is only shot if you know that they aren't scum.

[Voltaire]

You're theory that they were scum is only shot if you know that they aren't scum.

This is what I said. It makes me want to vote nkirbit.

But nkirbit's reply to my Robz query is what I was looking for (and he couldn't have known that). So I am back to square one.

I am very interested in what mail-mi thinks of all of this.

[yuma]

I did not like nkirbit's recent posts about Voltaire at all.... quoted for reference.

I thought day2 and still think that Voltaire's defense of Liopoil was very flimsy.  It really read to me like he had a vested interest in not being on the Liopoil wagon.

In the above post defending Liopoil, Voltaire's major reasoning for not being on the Lio wagon is that he thinks Lio is engaging in legitimate scumhunting.  Sure.

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Here we have Voltaire agreeing that Liopoil appearing to be scumhunting isn't a great defense of Liopoil because of the setup of the game.  So, Voltaire's main earlier stated reasoning for depending Liopoil is gone.

Now Voltaire shifts his defense to the fact that too many people are willing to lynch Liopoil, which I don't buy, especially when exactly five players indicated that they would be willing to lynch Lio.

At no point does Voltaire ever specifically address the cases presented by Shraeye, myself, or others.  He just throws out vague defenses, and when one defense got shot down, immediately slid to another.

I know that Lio did flip town, so it's not the most incriminating evidence towards Voltaire, but he really does appear to me to have made a decision to appear off-wagon for the Lio lynch.  I initially thought that it was because he was Lio's scumbuddy, but that's obviously not the case now.  But I think he could be scum trying to get towncred for opposing a mislynch.

To me this is what I might call "panic deflection." By that I mean that nkirbit knows at this point that he is under some pressure. I have voted for him today, shraeye is currently voting for him, voltaire is pressing him... he needs to move the topic away from himself, if he is scum, and quick! How to do that?

Well he has to find someone scummy and fast. To do so he manipulates an opinion he had on voltaire from before. "voltaire is lio's scum partner because of XYZ and didn't want to lynch him because of it" into "voltaire wanted to be away from the liopoil wagon when he knew to be town because of XYZ for towncred"

I never really believed that if lio was scum then voltaire was his partner. That seemed like too big of a stretch, so I do see where nkirbit is coming from in saying that voltaire might have wanted to be off wagon for credit... but to flip his complete rationale, seems like it was a attempt to move the focus away from himself and toward someone else.

[nkirbit]

No, I don't know that Jorbles/Eevee were town.  They could be, could not be, one could be one couldn't be.

I was worried that scum had lurked their way through day2, and had been planning on looking into both Jorbles and Eevee (who were the two major lurkers), and see if I could find anything scummy about them.  Obviously, I don't need to do that anymore, since they're both dead!

I strongly disagree that Eevee/Jorbles aren't worth looking at.  It's critical that town start lynching scum, and it's worth it to see if either is likely to be scum, because that might help us find their partner.  If you go back and read your original quote, I really can't put any subtext behind it other than you acknowledging that you 'know' them to be town.

I was thinking during the night, and was worried that scum were simply lurking their way through day2 while all the town players yelled at each other.  But Eevee and Jorbles are dead, so that theory is completely shot.

You're theory that they were scum is only shot if you know that they aren't scum.

They could be scum.  They could not be.  I don't know.  I don't plan on putting any effort into figuring it out... if you're so convinced it's important, why are you criticizing me for not doing it rather than just doing it yourself?

Perhaps I should have used "plan" rather than "theory".  That was a little bit unclear, my mistake.

[yuma]

But nkirbit's reply to my Robz query is what I was looking for (and he couldn't have known that). So I am back to square one.

I don't get this logic. Nkirbit knows you have a townier read on Robz if he has read the thread at all recently... which he has. So if he wants you to get on his side (especially since you were then voting for him) he will give a read that you will agree with to get you to side with him. That is kinda standard mafia play 101.

[yuma]

I do find voltaire's quick on/off votes on nkirbit to be on the townier side of things...

[Voltaire]

But nkirbit's reply to my Robz query is what I was looking for (and he couldn't have known that). So I am back to square one.

I don't get this logic. Nkirbit knows you have a townier read on Robz if he has read the thread at all recently... which he has. So if he wants you to get on his side (especially since you were then voting for him) he will give a read that you will agree with to get you to side with him. That is kinda standard mafia play 101.

I know. Trust me I know.

[shraeye]

They could be scum.  They could not be.  I don't know.  I don't plan on putting any effort into figuring it out... if you're so convinced it's important, why are you criticizing me for not doing it rather than just doing it yourself?

I'm not criticizing you for not looking at this.  I'm saying that your original quote made the implicit assumption that they were town.  I'm saying that only somebody who killed one of them, and wasn't on a team with the other one would make an assumption like that.

I'm saying that was a scumslip.  And you just continually defend it by saying "well maybe they were scum and maybe they weren't".  That doesn't absolve you of my argument.

[nkirbit]

I did not like nkirbit's recent posts about Voltaire at all.... quoted for reference.

I thought day2 and still think that Voltaire's defense of Liopoil was very flimsy.  It really read to me like he had a vested interest in not being on the Liopoil wagon.

In the above post defending Liopoil, Voltaire's major reasoning for not being on the Lio wagon is that he thinks Lio is engaging in legitimate scumhunting.  Sure.

Anyway, Voltaire, what do you make of my point that, "Lio looks like he's been scumhunting" isn't a valid defense of Lio.  Do you agree with that?

It's actually a pretty good point, but you and mail-mi are strong scum reads.

Here we have Voltaire agreeing that Liopoil appearing to be scumhunting isn't a great defense of Liopoil because of the setup of the game.  So, Voltaire's main earlier stated reasoning for depending Liopoil is gone.

Now Voltaire shifts his defense to the fact that too many people are willing to lynch Liopoil, which I don't buy, especially when exactly five players indicated that they would be willing to lynch Lio.

At no point does Voltaire ever specifically address the cases presented by Shraeye, myself, or others.  He just throws out vague defenses, and when one defense got shot down, immediately slid to another.

I know that Lio did flip town, so it's not the most incriminating evidence towards Voltaire, but he really does appear to me to have made a decision to appear off-wagon for the Lio lynch.  I initially thought that it was because he was Lio's scumbuddy, but that's obviously not the case now.  But I think he could be scum trying to get towncred for opposing a mislynch.

To me this is what I might call "panic deflection." By that I mean that nkirbit knows at this point that he is under some pressure. I have voted for him today, shraeye is currently voting for him, voltaire is pressing him... he needs to move the topic away from himself, if he is scum, and quick! How to do that?

Well he has to find someone scummy and fast. To do so he manipulates an opinion he had on voltaire from before. "voltaire is lio's scum partner because of XYZ and didn't want to lynch him because of it" into "voltaire wanted to be away from the liopoil wagon when he knew to be town because of XYZ for towncred"

I never really believed that if lio was scum then voltaire was his partner. That seemed like too big of a stretch, so I do see where nkirbit is coming from in saying that voltaire might have wanted to be off wagon for credit... but to flip his complete rationale, seems like it was a attempt to move the focus away from himself and toward someone else.

Well, the main point is the same, I'm just drawing different conclusions from it based on new evidence.  The main point was, and still is, "It looks like Voltaire has a vested interest in being off-wagon for the Liopoil wagon."  When I thought that Lio was mafia, that leads me to the conclusion that Voltaire's probably mafia as well.  Now that I know Lio is town, the town-credit think is the likeliest explanation.

But the main point was that it appeared to me like Voltaire wasn't considering Lio's case neutrally.  He threw out one defense, it got shot down.  He threw out a different defense, which also got shot down.  But at no point did Voltaire appear reconsider the case after his defenses were shown to be not great, and I kind of think a town member would do so.  I know I would be thinking, "Man, maybe they are right".  But Voltaire appeared to have already made up his mind that we were wrong, and was looking for justification for that.

[nkirbit]

They could be scum.  They could not be.  I don't know.  I don't plan on putting any effort into figuring it out... if you're so convinced it's important, why are you criticizing me for not doing it rather than just doing it yourself?

I'm not criticizing you for not looking at this.  I'm saying that your original quote made the implicit assumption that they were town.  I'm saying that only somebody who killed one of them, and wasn't on a team with the other one would make an assumption like that.

I'm saying that was a scumslip.  And you just continually defend it by saying "well maybe they were scum and maybe they weren't".  That doesn't absolve you of my argument.

Well, you seem to have made up your mind already.

[yuma]

I couldn't remember when the deadline for today was so I went back and looked it up.

Day 3 ends on September 6th.

Sooner than I thought it was.

Mods: What time September 6th will the day end?

[nkirbit]

To me this is what I might call "panic deflection." By that I mean that nkirbit knows at this point that he is under some pressure. I have voted for him today, shraeye is currently voting for him, voltaire is pressing him... he needs to move the topic away from himself, if he is scum, and quick! How to do that?

Well he has to find someone scummy and fast. To do so he manipulates an opinion he had on voltaire from before. "voltaire is lio's scum partner because of XYZ and didn't want to lynch him because of it" into "voltaire wanted to be away from the liopoil wagon when he knew to be town because of XYZ for towncred"

Just 16 minutes before I posted my opinions on Voltaire, he posted this:

The one thing that I think is scummy about Robz:

When he made his case on me day2, one of the premises in that case was that I was, "Making an attempt to appear active without actually contributing much."  That just wasn't true, as I had not posted in about three days entirely.  He miscategorized me, and then found me scummy for that miscategorization.  I think such an action is more likely to come from a scum member who is looking for a reason to paint a player as scummy than it is from a town member who is trying to puzzle out who the scum are.

nkirbit, have you re-read Robz's D3?

Robz was the person who was my top scum-read day2, apart from Lio.  I have stated reasons why I think he's scummy.  If I'm simply panicking and looking to deflect anywhere but me, don't you think I would take Voltaire's bait and start talking about Robz?

[yuma]

To me this is what I might call "panic deflection." By that I mean that nkirbit knows at this point that he is under some pressure. I have voted for him today, shraeye is currently voting for him, voltaire is pressing him... he needs to move the topic away from himself, if he is scum, and quick! How to do that?

Well he has to find someone scummy and fast. To do so he manipulates an opinion he had on voltaire from before. "voltaire is lio's scum partner because of XYZ and didn't want to lynch him because of it" into "voltaire wanted to be away from the liopoil wagon when he knew to be town because of XYZ for towncred"

Just 16 minutes before I posted my opinions on Voltaire, he posted this:

The one thing that I think is scummy about Robz:

When he made his case on me day2, one of the premises in that case was that I was, "Making an attempt to appear active without actually contributing much."  That just wasn't true, as I had not posted in about three days entirely.  He miscategorized me, and then found me scummy for that miscategorization.  I think such an action is more likely to come from a scum member who is looking for a reason to paint a player as scummy than it is from a town member who is trying to puzzle out who the scum are.

nkirbit, have you re-read Robz's D3?

Robz was the person who was my top scum-read day2, apart from Lio.  I have stated reasons why I think he's scummy.  If I'm simply panicking and looking to deflect anywhere but me, don't you think I would take Voltaire's bait and start talking about Robz?

Couple of reasons:
Robz has a town read on you. If you are mafia and if he is not you don't want to alienate him away from this read.
both voltaire and shraeye had expressed town reads on him as well, so you would know you wouldn't have much support coming from that direction. (you would have mail-mi on your side if you had done this, but 2 people finding him scummy isn't enough to push anything on you)

But honestly if you are mafia then you have to do what you have to do in certain situations... Sometimes the plays you make as mafia aren't ideal, because... well... you are in a panic... and have to react as best you can.

[nkirbit]

I feel like I kind of deserve this for just not paying enough attention to the game... Both days I've come under criticism for lurking, when really I've just been busy.

I posted the cases I did when I did because, well, that's when I came back.  I know that's awfully convenient, but that's the truth.

[Robz888]

Usually when everyone thinks I'm town, I'm actually scum. So this is weird. But oh well.

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

[nkirbit]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

[nkirbit]

Usually when everyone thinks I'm town, I'm actually scum. So this is weird. But oh well.

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

I don't get why you think Yuma is scummy.. is it really just that he's still alive?

[Voltaire]

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

It would be better if you did. What's your reason for finding nkirbit townish? The fact that he's alive? I couldn't find anything else in your posts from today.

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

While this is true, I wouldn't call the case on you scumslip based at all.

[Robz888]

Usually when everyone thinks I'm town, I'm actually scum. So this is weird. But oh well.

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

I don't get why you think Yuma is scummy.. is it really just that he's still alive?

Look, I can remember getting townie vibes from the guy in games where he was town, and just sort of not knowing in games he turned out be scum. I really do think you and shraeye are town. And there's only two other people, and probably at least two scum.

[mail-mi]

I couldn't remember when the deadline for today was so I went back and looked it up.

Day 3 ends on September 6th.

Sooner than I thought it was.

Mods: What time September 6th will the day end?

That's close. For now, I think I'll plop back down a vote: robz and try to get more retreads done tonight.

[mail-mi]

Usually when everyone thinks I'm town, I'm actually scum. So this is weird. But oh well.

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

I don't get why you think Yuma is scummy.. is it really just that he's still alive?

Look, I can remember getting townie vibes from the guy in games where he was town, and just sort of not knowing in games he turned out be scum. I really do think you and shraeye are town. And there's only two other people, and probably at least two scum.

I agree with robz on NK being townier here. I just don't see the cases y'all are pushing.

[Robz888]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

[nkirbit]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

While this is true, I wouldn't call the case on you scumslip based at all.
[/quote]

Really?  The entire case is built on the premise that I, as scum, know that both Eevee and Jorbles were town, and through what I said, unintentionally conveyed the fact that I knew that.  I'm pretty sure that would be a scumslip.

I'm saying that was a scumslip.

Shraeye agrees with me.

[nkirbit]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

While this is true, I wouldn't call the case on you scumslip based at all.

Really?  The entire case is built on the premise that I, as scum, know that both Eevee and Jorbles were town, and through what I said, unintentionally conveyed the fact that I knew that.  I'm pretty sure that would be a scumslip.

I'm saying that was a scumslip.

Shraeye agrees with me.

FIXED.

[nkirbit]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

I think he's wrong, but I don't think he's scum.  It is frustrating though.

I also don't really want to lynch Yuma.

[Voltaire]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

While this is true, I wouldn't call the case on you scumslip based at all.

Really?  The entire case is built on the premise that I, as scum, know that both Eevee and Jorbles were town, and through what I said, unintentionally conveyed the fact that I knew that.  I'm pretty sure that would be a scumslip.

I'm saying that was a scumslip.

Shraeye agrees with me.

Well I am using scumslip in the Voltgloss-tag fashion, which is how I normally see it used. I'd call the case on you scumhunting based. It's semantics I guess.

[mail-mi]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

Ugh after I hit post I knew someone was going to say this. Nkirbit is townier. Robz is scummier. Robz thinks nkirbit is townier. Therefore, I agree with robz, even though he's scummier.

[nkirbit]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

Ugh after I hit post I knew someone was going to say this. Nkirbit is townier. Robz is scummier. Robz thinks nkirbit is townier. Therefore, I agree with robz, even though he's scummier.

Why are you only considering Robz and myself?  There are three other players.

[mail-mi]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

Ugh after I hit post I knew someone was going to say this. Nkirbit is townier. Robz is scummier. Robz thinks nkirbit is townier. Therefore, I agree with robz, even though he's scummier.

Why are you only considering Robz and myself?  There are three other players.

Omgosh. I was thinking that you were a topic of conversation. I popped in to say something about you, and something about robz b/c deadline is close. I am going to reread the others l8r.

[nkirbit]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

Ugh after I hit post I knew someone was going to say this. Nkirbit is townier. Robz is scummier. Robz thinks nkirbit is townier. Therefore, I agree with robz, even though he's scummier.

Why are you only considering Robz and myself?  There are three other players.

Omgosh. I was thinking that you were a topic of conversation. I popped in to say something about you, and something about robz b/c deadline is close. I am going to reread the others l8r.

Let's re-read your posts today.  These are all the posts that address any other alive player:

-Mention that top two suspects are Robz and Nkirbit
-Say you're going to re-read Robz, but have to go to sleep
-Mention you had scumreads on both Robz and Nkirbit
-Reread of Robz (null-to-scummy)
-Answered Shraeyes question about something in your post about Robz
-Re-read Nkirbit.  After that, you're comfortable with voting Robz. (and you vote)
-Mention that you need to re-read Shraeye
-You get the concern about Yuma, but there are better options
-Nkirbit defended himself well
-Robz is more of a gut feel
-Go back to a vote on Robz
-Agree with Robz on NKirbit being towny
-Clarify views on Robz and Nkirbit

This is not Robz and Nkirbit being the topic of conversation.  This is you hardcore tunneling on Robz and myself.  You should look elsewhere.

[nkirbit]

I still don't think Mail-Mi is scum, though.  Were he scum, he could have easily voted me.. he has shown a history of being suspicious of me and has a track record of sheeping.  I don't think anyone would be more suspicious of mail-mi for sheeping onto me (although they probably would after this post, ha!)

[Robz888]

I still don't think Mail-Mi is scum, though.  Were he scum, he could have easily voted me.. he has shown a history of being suspicious of me and has a track record of sheeping.  I don't think anyone would be more suspicious of mail-mi for sheeping onto me (although they probably would after this post, ha!)

Okay. Well, you've done a really good job of convincing me you are town, by the way. I don't think we agree on whose scum, which is unfortunate. WHat do you make of VOltaire?

[nkirbit]

I still don't think Mail-Mi is scum, though.  Were he scum, he could have easily voted me.. he has shown a history of being suspicious of me and has a track record of sheeping.  I don't think anyone would be more suspicious of mail-mi for sheeping onto me (although they probably would after this post, ha!)

Okay. Well, you've done a really good job of convincing me you are town, by the way. I don't think we agree on whose scum, which is unfortunate. WHat do you make of VOltaire?

Yesterday, I was convinced he was Lio's partner.  His defense of Lio kept shifting, (He first defended Lio as legitimately scumhunting.  After I pointed out that this doesn't clear Lio, since both SK and Mafia need to hunt each other, he changed to opposing the Lio lynch because there was too much support for it.  When Yuma pointed out that only 5 players supported it, he kind of just backed off.)  But he never reconsidered the case on Lio (or at least never appeared to) and never gave a good defense.

The feeling I get from his actions towards Lio were that he had made a decision that he was going to be off-wagon, and was looking for reasons to justify himself being offwagon, rather than trying to figure out whether or not Lio was town or scum.  When I initially said his first defense was shoddy, instead of reconsidering his position on the Lio wagon, he immediately looked for another way to justify his position.  While the cases were wrong on Lio, I do think there were multiple solid cases with good points.. it wasn't a random lynch at all.  But he never really addressed the cases themselves.

While he's obviously not Lio's partner, since Lio isn't scum, I still do believe that he made a decision to stay off-wagon yesterday, and wasn't a town member trying to figure out if he was correct or not.  With the information of Lio's flip, this leads me to the conclusion that he is possibly scum who was off-wagon to get town credit.

There's also the fact that he's voting for me right now.  While I know OMGUS isn't a reason to vote someone, it is some evidence.  We have 6 players left in the game, and probably at least 2 scum.  We could even be in LYLO.. we just don't know.  I know I'm town, and if you believe a town, a player driving a case on a town member is at least somewhat decent evidence towards their scumminess (not enough to vote someone alone.. but maybe enough to put them over the edge?  I'm not sure).

[shraeye]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

But there are scumslips and scumslips.  "oops I typed town instead of scum" is a more forgiveable mistake than

"here I'm going to make the premise that these two people are town even though I shouldn't have that knowledge"

The first is a typo, the second shows a mistake in reasoning driven by the fact that somebody has more knowledge than others.

[shraeye]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

This is exactly the same worry I was having.  If I'm scum, I'm taking out the town-leadingest voices first.  But there are two teams, so for yuma to be town, TWO teams had to have not wanted to kill him.  There obviously is incentive for the non-yuma team to shoot at him, so this line of reasoning leads me to suspect...well now that I think about it pretty much everyone but Robz.  I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

I have a little bit of an issue with how this is phrased.  Maybe I'm looking into this too much, but this sentence really comes off to me as saying, "Okay, let's start with the assumption that Nkirbit is guilty and find evidence to support it" rather than saying, "Let's look at this evidence neutrally and see what we can learn from it."  It's just very leading. 

Here is paranoia.  My quote does not call you out as scummy.  It says that I need to do some following up.  I don't see how you are accusing me of saying "nkirbit is guilty; let's go find evidence".  That quote was mostly me thinking about the yuma-alive argument and arguably casts more suspicion on him than you.  But still you are finding me fishy for my stance on you here?

[nkirbit]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

This is exactly the same worry I was having.  If I'm scum, I'm taking out the town-leadingest voices first.  But there are two teams, so for yuma to be town, TWO teams had to have not wanted to kill him.  There obviously is incentive for the non-yuma team to shoot at him, so this line of reasoning leads me to suspect...well now that I think about it pretty much everyone but Robz.  I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

I have a little bit of an issue with how this is phrased.  Maybe I'm looking into this too much, but this sentence really comes off to me as saying, "Okay, let's start with the assumption that Nkirbit is guilty and find evidence to support it" rather than saying, "Let's look at this evidence neutrally and see what we can learn from it."  It's just very leading. 

Here is paranoia.  My quote does not call you out as scummy.  It says that I need to do some following up.  I don't see how you are accusing me of saying "nkirbit is guilty; let's go find evidence".  That quote was mostly me thinking about the yuma-alive argument and arguably casts more suspicion on him than you.  But still you are finding me fishy for my stance on you here?

You didn't say "Let's look at Eevee/Jorbles and see what we can learn about Nkirbit."  You suggested that the evidence would lead towards a specific conclusion.

In fact, when Yuma went back and said "Eevee and Jorbles didn't have a scumread on Nkirbit at all", you definitely didn't come out and say that it was evidence supporting my townness?  Why not?  Yuma did the following up for you, and it was the opposite of what you had pointed out here... yet you never said "Oh, townpoints for Nkirbit".  You just ignored it.  If you were looking at it neutrally, why didn't you go back to it and say that it didn't match your initial suspicions?  Instead, you have appeared to ignore the stuff that opposes your narrative.

[nkirbit]

I do think that in terms of scumslips based on language, town are way, way more likely to make such slips than scum is because they're much, much less likely to go back and re-read their posts.  When's the last time we've actually caught someone in a scumslip?

But there are scumslips and scumslips.  "oops I typed town instead of scum" is a more forgiveable mistake than

"here I'm going to make the premise that these two people are town even though I shouldn't have that knowledge"

The first is a typo, the second shows a mistake in reasoning driven by the fact that somebody has more knowledge than others.

Replace the word theory with plan and it's a typo, me simply typing a message quickly and not choosing the correct word, and not going back and editing my posts.

Seriously, if you replace the word theory with the word plan, it's an entirely coherent sentence with a straightforward meaning.

[shraeye]

I replaced the word theory with plan.  It didn't makes sense. 

You were worried that scum were lurking, but that plan is shot now...?  Your plan to....worry that scum were lurking?  Your plan to call out lurkers for being scummy?

[yuma]

What mail-mi is doing makes absolutely no sense. "Robz is scum! He's right, though."

The question I pose to the rest of the town: Does this make him more worthy of lynch than yuma?

For me, the question is whether or not I could see town mail-mi doing the exact same thing. And the answer is yes. I can. Obviously he is more worthy of a lynch than me. But I think we would be heading toward mislynch city if we voted for him.

This is really what is frustrating me about robz. He has me pegged completely wrong... and I still am not sure why. And the only other option that he is giving is the stereotypical "easy mislynch for the win"

[shraeye]

You didn't say "Let's look at Eevee/Jorbles and see what we can learn about Nkirbit."  You suggested that the evidence would lead towards a specific conclusion.

In fact, when Yuma went back and said "Eevee and Jorbles didn't have a scumread on Nkirbit at all", you definitely didn't come out and say that it was evidence supporting my townness?  Why not?  Yuma did the following up for you, and it was the opposite of what you had pointed out here... yet you never said "Oh, townpoints for Nkirbit".  You just ignored it.  If you were looking at it neutrally, why didn't you go back to it and say that it didn't match your initial suspicions?  Instead, you have appeared to ignore the stuff that opposes your narrative.

This is equally wrong.  I suggested that if Eevee/Jorbles had suspected you, that it might be a reason that scumnkirbit would kill them.  At the time I didn't remember if Eevee/Jorbles had suspected you.  It turns out they didnt.

So my followup conclusion isn't "oh somebody who didn't suspect nkirbit died...therefore nkirbit is town".  Some things don't break down into townpoints if true, scumpoints if false.  If mafia were that simple, towns would be winning all the time.

my style is to open different threads of reasoning, explore stories that fit everybody's narratives.  If you're going to suspect me because I thought of a possible explanation that wasn't supported by evidence and then dropped that explanation, well that's just silly.

[yuma]

Usually when everyone thinks I'm town, I'm actually scum. So this is weird. But oh well.

Uh, I don't have justify myself anymore, yes? I can just be like, it's <scummy>yuma... mail-mi... voltaire... shraeye... nkirbit<townish>

I don't get why you think Yuma is scummy.. is it really just that he's still alive?

Look, I can remember getting townie vibes from the guy in games where he was town, and just sort of not knowing in games he turned out be scum. I really do think you and shraeye are town. And there's only two other people, and probably at least two scum.

Oh now we have an explanation! Vibes! Yes, that answers everything! Vibes!
....
Even after your "reread" this is all you have?

[yuma]

So I think this is about where we stand in terms of people having reads, etc.... Please correct if wrong: Question marks are where I am somewhat unsure about the reads of people.

mail-mi: could lynch Robz. Doesn't want to lynch: nkirbit. Others (yuma, shraeye, voltaire)
Robz: could lynch yuma or mail-mi. Doesn't want to lynch nkirbit, shraeye. Others (voltiare)
shraeye: could lynch nkirbit. Doesn't want to lynch yuma. Others (mail-mi, Robz, voltaire)
nkirbit: could lynch Voltaire? Doesn't want to lynch yuma, Robz. Others (mail-mi, shraeye)
Voltaire: could lynch nkirbit, mail-mi, yuma? Doesn't want to lynch Robz. Others (shraeye)
yuma: could lynch nkirbit (maybe Robz?). Doesn't want to lynch shraeye, mail-mi Others (voltaire)


Mostly I feel like right now we are kinda a standstill. nkirbit has the most "could" lynches. But both Robz and mail-mi aren't interested. No one else is close to having four people suspicious of them.

I am wondering if we are at the point where we need as much information as we can possibly get. I think I am starting to lean toward having people claim who are still alive. There is the WIFOM that we will need to take into consideration, but again, I think that ends up providing us with more information... Because the status quo right now looks like a stall. And normally in this sort of a situation I might recommend a no-lynch to get the numbers back on town's side, but with potentially 2 NKs at night and us potentially being a lylo that just isn't an option... So yeah, I think claiming might be the correct move here.

[yuma]

Oh right, we aren't even allowed to no-lynch... so that can't even be considered to be an option...

[Robz888]

I am wondering if we are at the point where we need as much information as we can possibly get. I think I am starting to lean toward having people claim who are still alive. There is the WIFOM that we will need to take into consideration, but again, I think that ends up providing us with more information... Because the status quo right now looks like a stall. And normally in this sort of a situation I might recommend a no-lynch to get the numbers back on town's side, but with potentially 2 NKs at night and us potentially being a lylo that just isn't an option... So yeah, I think claiming might be the correct move here.

I do actually think you are a little townier for bringing this up, because this was my thought as well... which is why I raised it, a IRL week ago, when we actually had time! I almost feel like we don't have enough time, anymore. Well, probably we do. I don't know that we'll agree on it. I don't even know if it's right. For all we know, all our PRs are dead.

[mail-mi]

Shraeye (d2 onwards):

His giant reread of everyone in the game. I find it hard to think that scum!shraeye would do this. TOWNPOINTS.

I think that the fact that he says "Jorbles should get a hard look tomorrow" makes me think that he didn't want to kill jorbles. townpoints.

He also does not feel like scum shraeye in LOTR2. i think he's town.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.3


nkirbit (1): shraeye
Robz (1): mail-mi
Not Voting (4): Robz888, Voltaire, nkirbit, yuma

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends on September 6th at 6:15 PM Forum Time.

[nkirbit]

I guess I wouldn't be opposed to claiming.  I don't think it will help town very much, as PR claims are very unreliable at this point.

It may help scum identify who the other scum team is, and I actually think that would be a good thing at this point.  We've already mislynched twice, and we're not going to win without scum shooting other scum, almost certainly, so that's helpful.

[yuma]

Well we need to get this moving and not let it derail scum hunting. I will start the claiming.

I am not a PR. I think the ideal route would be to do popcorn style, but I just don't think we have time for that... so I think we might just need to go freestyle here.

[mail-mi]

 :'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

[nkirbit]

I am a VT

Mail-Mi's claim is interesting.  Did both scumteams shoot Chairs that night?  I suppose that's not unreasonable.

[nkirbit]

Did you shoot N2, mail-mi?

[Robz888]

Also VT.

Mail-mi, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

[Robz888]

I believe him. It was SUCHABADMOVE though.

[yuma]

I believe him. It was SUCHABADMOVE though.

I am not so sure that I do. This looks more like something that scum mail-mi might feel like he has to do.

[nkirbit]

Well, if we are all telling the truth, we have 6 VTs accounted for (Nkirbit, Yuma, Robz, Ash, Voltgloss, Lio)... that's all of them.

We will see what the others claim.

[yuma]

:'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

can we get a flavor claim with this?

[Robz888]

I believe him. It was SUCHABADMOVE though.

I am not so sure that I do. This looks more like something that scum mail-mi might feel like he has to do.

Does he feel like he has to do that, though?

I'm glad you actually sprung this on us right now, when we have no clear lynch choice. Does mail-mi think he actually needs to fakeclaim to survive?

I guess, if ash was actually the vigilante, and mail-mi is scum who shot him, he would have always planned on that. Huh.

MAIL-MI, WHAT ABOUT YOUR NIGHT 2 SHOT? ANSWER RIGHT NOW WITHOUT THINKING OR YOU GET LYNCHED.

[mail-mi]

I didn't shoot N2. Ash was Amy Pond.

[yuma]

I didn't shoot N2. Ash was Amy Pond.

your flavor, not ash's

[nkirbit]

Why didn't you shoot N2?  You had more information, and better reads, N2 than you did N1.  Why did you choose to shoot on the night where you had less info, then choose to not shoot on the night you had more info?

[mail-mi]

:'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

can we get a flavor claim with this?

Judoon captain 

[Robz888]

Why didn't you shoot N2?  You had more information, and better reads, N2 than you did N1.  Why did you choose to shoot on the night where you had less info, then choose to not shoot on the night you had more info?

YES YES ANSWER THIS RIGHT NOW.

[nkirbit]

I didn't shoot N2. Ash was Amy Pond.

This is the flavor that Ash claimed early on in the thread.

[nkirbit]

Why Ash?

[mail-mi]

Why didn't you shoot N2?  You had more information, and better reads, N2 than you did N1.  Why did you choose to shoot on the night where you had less info, then choose to not shoot on the night you had more info?

N1 I had a scum read on ash. And frankly, I was annoyed by him. N2 I was thinking about shooting you, however if we lynched you I wanted the whole town to have the info. I was not thinking that we would only have 6 players alive today.

[mail-mi]

Btw, don't lynch me or town loses.

[Robz888]

YOU SEEM AWFULLY CAUTIOUS, MAIL-MI. WHERE'S YOUR ANSWER TO WHY YOU DIDNT SHOOT NIGHT 2?

[Robz888]

Oh, I see it.

[Robz888]

You seem eerily brief, mail-mi. If I were making a PR claim, I would be like explaining myself here, not like offering quick one-liners.

[nkirbit]

Mod question: If a player is targeted twice in the same night by different players will the flavor the next morning reflect that?

That is will the flavor have something like, "2 bullet holes were in his chest"? Or will the player just be announced dead? Also will SK kills and mafia kills and vig kills have a different way of killing or are all kills created equal?

All deaths will be reflected as 'Player X, Player Y, Player Z were vaporized'. So nothing distinguishes between the different killers or how many killed the target.

If two+ players night kill same target, who gets the cannibal info?

It's in OP#2. But, anyone that kills them will get the cannibal info.

Hm. CAn someone rekill a dead player to get the info?

This question is odd, looking back, perhaps it supports mail-mi being a vig?

[nkirbit]

You seem eerily brief, mail-mi. If I were making a PR claim, I would be like explaining myself here, not like offering quick one-liners.

I would too, but I'm also not mail-mi. 

[nkirbit]

The last thing that mail-mi did before Voltgloss's slip was vote Ash.  That's consistent with vigging Ash night1.

[Robz888]

It is. And I can actually picture mail-mi deciding to do it, it makes sense for him, I think. But still, it's like he doesnt even care that the whole game rests on how well he explains this.

[yuma]

Some good history digging by nkirbit. Making me a little less suspicious of mail-mi... or does it just mean that it is fully planned out? Leaning toward a little less suspicious I think. Especially the weird question to the mod.

The thing about mail-mi is that him claiming to be the vig increases his chances of being mafia I think. It is now more like a 50/50. Because either he is the vig. Or he is lying. Certainly other factors go into those percentages (play, reads, votes, etc, etc.) but at the basic core it is one or the other.

[Robz888]

Some good history digging by nkirbit. Making me a little less suspicious of mail-mi... or does it just mean that it is fully planned out? Leaning toward a little less suspicious I think. Especially the weird question to the mod.

The thing about mail-mi is that him claiming to be the vig increases his chances of being mafia I think. It is now more like a 50/50. Because either he is the vig. Or he is lying. Certainly other factors go into those percentages (play, reads, votes, etc, etc.) but at the basic core it is one or the other.

Yes, this is true.

[mail-mi]

Some good history digging by nkirbit. Making me a little less suspicious of mail-mi... or does it just mean that it is fully planned out? Leaning toward a little less suspicious I think. Especially the weird question to the mod.

The thing about mail-mi is that him claiming to be the vig increases his chances of being mafia I think. It is now more like a 50/50. Because either he is the vig. Or he is lying. Certainly other factors go into those percentages (play, reads, votes, etc, etc.) but at the basic core it is one or the other.

But, if I'm town (which I am), if you lynch me you lose.

[Robz888]

Let's say mail-mi is scum.

Remember that ash claimed not-PR.

For scum mail-mi to safely claim vig, he has to kill the vig at some point. The vig wasn't ash, assuming ash didn't lie as town (please no). So that gives him only one night to have killed the vig.

[yuma]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

[Robz888]

Some good history digging by nkirbit. Making me a little less suspicious of mail-mi... or does it just mean that it is fully planned out? Leaning toward a little less suspicious I think. Especially the weird question to the mod.

The thing about mail-mi is that him claiming to be the vig increases his chances of being mafia I think. It is now more like a 50/50. Because either he is the vig. Or he is lying. Certainly other factors go into those percentages (play, reads, votes, etc, etc.) but at the basic core it is one or the other.

But, if I'm town (which I am), if you lynch me you lose.

If you're scum and we don't lynch you, we stand a good chance of losing anyway, because our real vig is dead.

[Robz888]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Scum actually do tend to think alike. Your team and mine duplicated our shraeye kill out of like a dozen people in DS9.

[Robz888]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Scum actually do tend to think alike. Your team and mine duplicated our shraeye kill out of like a dozen people in DS9.

And Dsell? One or the other or both, I don't remember.

[Robz888]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

[Robz888]

Counterclaims still possible.

[yuma]

Some good history digging by nkirbit. Making me a little less suspicious of mail-mi... or does it just mean that it is fully planned out? Leaning toward a little less suspicious I think. Especially the weird question to the mod.

The thing about mail-mi is that him claiming to be the vig increases his chances of being mafia I think. It is now more like a 50/50. Because either he is the vig. Or he is lying. Certainly other factors go into those percentages (play, reads, votes, etc, etc.) but at the basic core it is one or the other.

But, if I'm town (which I am), if you lynch me you lose.

I think we are basically at that point with nearly everyone. I mean, yes, if we leave you alive and if you are the vig, you could conceivably shoot someone tonight (if we mislynch... if we hit correctly I still think it is probably best for the vig to not shoot) and keep us in the game. But really, I don't think this is something we can take into consideration. If you are scum, we need to lynch you and not worry about the repercussions.

[yuma]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Scum actually do tend to think alike. Your team and mine duplicated our shraeye kill out of like a dozen people in DS9.

Yes we did. But that is what I mean by it probably depends on who scum is. If scum is someone that has had experience with such events (so shraeye, you, me, eevee?) then I think they would know the risk of potentially hurting themselves by shooting the same person as the opposing team. But someone new to multiball might not consider that as heavily. So it kinda ends up being a moot point as we don't know who is scum (obviously).

[yuma]

One thing we can take away from mail-mi's claim here though is that both jorbles and eevee were killed by scum teams. Not by a vig (unless he is counterclaimed... which I just don't see happening robz. The only way scum!mail-mi claims is if he knows the vig is dead. Claiming with the vig potentially alive is way too dangerous and risky... but yes, we do need to hear from shraeye and voltaire). I am not sure what that means, but we can take that much away.

[Robz888]

Oh, we could have also had roleblocking, Night 1. Vig mail-mi shoots ash, scum shoots chairs, SK blocked, etc.

[mail-mi]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

But would a scum team really try to kill a claimed VT?

[nkirbit]

I don't think that Ash was the vig, that's for certain.  If Ash was actually the vig, claiming Amy Pond as his flavor name is disastrous, as the true Amy Pond could counterclaim and we get into a town vs town situation.

I also don't think that Mail-Mi is scum who has not shot the Vigilante.  Claimed Vig without knowing the Vig is dead would not be smart, I don't think.

I think the only situation in which Mail-Mi being scum makes sense is if he shot Eevee or Jorbles Night 2, and they turned out to be the scum.

It's possible, but I do think it's less likely than mail-mi just being the Vigilante himself.

[nkirbit]

Let's say mail-mi is scum.

Remember that ash claimed not-PR.

For scum mail-mi to safely claim vig, he has to kill the vig at some point. The vig wasn't ash, assuming ash didn't lie as town (please no). So that gives him only one night to have killed the vig.

Oh Robz said exactly what I said before I did, haha.

[nkirbit]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Well, one scum team could also have been roleblocked.  We wouldn't have necessarily seen a successful roleblocked claimed, because the roleblocker can't have even be sure their roleblock worked.

If scum are going to both target the same player, it's going to be the claimed cop.

[nkirbit]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

But would a scum team really try to kill a claimed VT?

If they thought he was the other scumteam, maybe.  But mail-mi shooting Ashersky is what I think happened... I believe mail-mi's claim.

[yuma]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Well, one scum team could also have been roleblocked.  We wouldn't have necessarily seen a successful roleblocked claimed, because the roleblocker can't have even be sure their roleblock worked.

If scum are going to both target the same player, it's going to be the claimed cop.

Yes I think I do agree with you. Although the SK is less worried about the cop than the mafia. But really I think it boils down to whether or not a scum team would want to kill ashersky. And I think the answer is probably no. So that makes mail-mi's claim more believable in the end. And I think I am going to accept it.

[nkirbit]

Also, the SK could have been shot night1 and kept alive due to his bulletproof.  Maybe Eevee or Jorbles were the SK who were shot both N1 and N2.

[Robz888]

Also, it makes sense for my top scum read to be town beyond a reasonable doubt now.

[Robz888]

Because, I suck.

[Robz888]

Also, if mail-mi is lying, our vig is dead, and that's extremely bad for us, probably. So the situations where he is telling the truth are in general going to be the ones we want to be true. I mean, if we have to gamble, that's the gamble that is better for other reasons.

[Robz888]

Voltaire is now my preferred lynch. Likely the one I will vigorously press for. (Of course he'll likely claim roleblocker, and we'll go through this again.)

[Robz888]

I'm not done yeling at mail-mi by the way.

Do. Not. Shoot. On. Night. 1. Ever. Period. Never. Hits. Scum. Thanks.

[nkirbit]

Voltaire is now my preferred lynch. Likely the one I will vigorously press for. (Of course he'll likely claim roleblocker, and we'll go through this again.)

This is a lynch I can get behind!

[yuma]

So we are still waiting for voltaire ands shraeye. Shraeye hasn't been online since we started claiming. However, Voltaire has. His profile says he was online at 9:58 ft this morning. Not sure if he has seen that we are in the process of claiming though.

shraeye and voltaire, please claim when you are next viewing this thread.

[mail-mi]

Voltaire is now my preferred lynch. Likely the one I will vigorously press for. (Of course he'll likely claim roleblocker, and we'll go through this again.)

This is a lynch I can get behind!

I think I can too. He's the only one (other than Yuma, who I don't prefer lynching) and I had a scummier read on him D1 and 2.

[Voltaire]

This is what I get for reading other games first.

I am not a PR.

I thought that Robz was the Vig. Lio (pretty sure it was lio) made a point that Robz's D2 rant about the Vig not shooting N1 seemed over-the-top and forced. That would make complete sense for why Robz wouldn't give it D1 (he was the Vig) and it also fits with how I've seen Robz play (his "argh why did the game restart" rant in B2B when he rolled scum again). Yuma correctly pointed out that my actions regarding Robz don't fit unless there's additional info and there it is - I didn't want to out Robz.

Incorrectly, it turns out, just like how I thought UoS was the Auror in HP.

Put me in the camp that believes mail-mi. This also basically removes my town read on Robz, since it was based on an incorrect assumption.

Voltaire is now my preferred lynch. Likely the one I will vigorously press for. (Of course he'll likely claim roleblocker, and we'll go through this again.)

Care to explain why?

[Voltaire]

I think I can too. He's the only one (other than Yuma, who I don't prefer lynching) and I had a scummier read on him D1 and 2.

Only one what?

[Voltaire]

:'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

can we get a flavor claim with this?

Why did you ask for a flavor claim? If mail-mi were fake-claiming the info is in the second post.

[yuma]

:'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

can we get a flavor claim with this?

Why did you ask for a flavor claim? If mail-mi were fake-claiming the info is in the second post.

Yes I know. But if mail-mi were scum there was a small chance he would forget and panic claim something else. It was a long shot... But if it worked, it would be a very simple way to out mafia.

[mail-mi]

I think I can too. He's the only one (other than Yuma, who I don't prefer lynching) and I had a scummier read on him D1 and 2.

Only one what?

That I haven't seriously reread yet.

[Voltaire]

Day 3 ends on September 6th at 6:15 PM Forum Time

That I haven't seriously reread yet.

You seriously don't have much time.

[nkirbit]

We should be claiming our flavor too. I am jack harkness

[Voltaire]

We should be claiming our flavor too. I am jack harkness

Why? Scum have safe claims. I don't see what this accomplishes. (Though I also don't see what it hurts, so...Jackie Tyler.)

[yuma]

Rory Williams

[Robz888]

Ood Sigma

[nkirbit]

We should be claiming our flavor too. I am jack harkness

Why? Scum have safe claims. I don't see what this accomplishes. (Though I also don't see what it hurts, so...Jackie Tyler.)

Not necessarily. Suppose there are two mafia still alive, and they killed chairs night 1. They only have 1 safe claim to make.

[mail-mi]

We should be claiming our flavor too. I am jack harkness

Why? Scum have safe claims. I don't see what this accomplishes. (Though I also don't see what it hurts, so...Jackie Tyler.)

Not necessarily. Suppose there are two mafia still alive, and they killed chairs night 1. They only have 1 safe claim to make.

No, scum has a fakeclaim. Not necessarily a PR fakeclaim, but a fake claim nonetheless.

[nkirbit]

Ood Sigma

Role blocker???

[Robz888]

crap

[Robz888]

Yes, I'm actually the roleblocker. I was keeping that secret, hoping scum would claim it. Was going to confess after shraeye's claim.

[nkirbit]

Also VT.

Mail-mi, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

vote: robz

Claimed to be a vt, then claimed his name was ood sigma, who is roleblocker per OP

[Robz888]

That was stupid. I didn't even remember my flavor name, and I certainly didn't remember that the power roles had publicly available names.

[Robz888]

Here is my trying to goad my scum suspect into claiming RB:

Voltaire is now my preferred lynch. Likely the one I will vigorously press for. (Of course he'll likely claim roleblocker, and we'll go through this again.)

[nkirbit]

Yes, I'm actually the roleblocker. I was keeping that secret, hoping scum would claim it. Was going to confess after shraeye's claim.

You think a scum would claim a pr they had not killed?

Not buying it, really

[mail-mi]

Also VT.

Mail-mi, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

vote: robz

Claimed to be a vt, then claimed his name was ood sigma, who is roleblocker per OP

Yup. vote: robz

[Robz888]

Yes, I'm actually the roleblocker. I was keeping that secret, hoping scum would claim it. Was going to confess after shraeye's claim.

You think a scum would claim a pr they had not killed?

Not buying it, really

I thought there was a chance. A small chance, but there was little reason not to take it. I just didn't realize the power role flavor names were in the OP.

[Robz888]

Okay, woah. I mean, what else do you think could have possibly happened here? The mod provided the scum team fake claims, remember!

[Robz888]

Why would I flavor claim Ood Sigma as scum, having claimed to be VT? Can you explain that to me?

[nkirbit]

Why would I flavor claim Ood Sigma as scum, having claimed to be VT? Can you explain that to me?

Because you killed the roleblocker and a vt and picked the wrong one?

Maybe you're right, though.

I will unvote for now to think about it, but I am still suspicious.

[yuma]

Yes, I'm actually the roleblocker. I was keeping that secret, hoping scum would claim it. Was going to confess after shraeye's claim.

You think a scum would claim a pr they had not killed?

Not buying it, really

I thought there was a chance. A small chance, but there was little reason not to take it. I just didn't realize the power role flavor names were in the OP.

I am torn. There are two things that I am having problems with here the first is the quote above. Especially immediately after this conversation I had with voltaire.

:'(we're  really doing this? Fine. I'm the vig. Ash was a VT.

can we get a flavor claim with this?

Why did you ask for a flavor claim? If mail-mi were fake-claiming the info is in the second post.

Yes I know. But if mail-mi were scum there was a small chance he would forget and panic claim something else. It was a long shot... But if it worked, it would be a very simple way to out mafia.

Robz did you read it?

The second is that Robz hasn't told us what he did with his said power. This is enlightening especially after what he said about mail-mi:

You seem eerily brief, mail-mi. If I were making a PR claim, I would be like explaining myself here, not like offering quick one-liners.

Robz, WHAT ABOUT YOUR NIGHT ACTIONS ANSWER RIGHT NOW WITHOUT THINKING OR YOU GET LYNCHED.

[Robz888]

Oh yeah! Fair fair.

Yuma Night 1, nkirbit Night 2

[nkirbit]

Let's say mail-mi is scum.

Remember that ash claimed not-PR.

For scum mail-mi to safely claim vig, he has to kill the vig at some point. The vig wasn't ash, assuming ash didn't lie as town (please no). So that gives him only one night to have killed the vig.

Why has your tune changed?  Before you had indicated that the only way scum!mail-mi would safely claim vig would be if he really killed the vig.  But now you think there's a chance that scum would fake claim a role they didn't have?

And not only did you think that there was a chance, you thought that chance was worth enough that you decided to lie as town to make it possible.

Lying as town is very dangerous, and can often lead to disastrous results.  See archetype in LOTR2 for a very recent example.  If you're lying as town, you better have a damn good reason to do so, and I just don't think that holding out a slight hope that Shraeye would claim roleblocker justifies that lie?

Surely, when Shraeye didn't claim as roleblocker and you come forward as the roleblocker, we get into this same conversation.  Maybe we lynch you, maybe we don't, but is it a conversation worth having the freaking day before the deadline?  I don't think it is.

Vote: Robz

[Robz888]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

[nkirbit]

Haha Yuma, I was going to give Robz an hour or so before I called him out on it, and if he hadn't by that point... you know.

But yes, he did take his time, and that's somewhat hypocritical to do after giving mail-mi crap for doing the same thing.

[Robz888]

Let's say mail-mi is scum.

Remember that ash claimed not-PR.

For scum mail-mi to safely claim vig, he has to kill the vig at some point. The vig wasn't ash, assuming ash didn't lie as town (please no). So that gives him only one night to have killed the vig.

Why has your tune changed?  Before you had indicated that the only way scum!mail-mi would safely claim vig would be if he really killed the vig.  But now you think there's a chance that scum would fake claim a role they didn't have?

And not only did you think that there was a chance, you thought that chance was worth enough that you decided to lie as town to make it possible.

Lying as town is very dangerous, and can often lead to disastrous results.  See archetype in LOTR2 for a very recent example.  If you're lying as town, you better have a damn good reason to do so, and I just don't think that holding out a slight hope that Shraeye would claim roleblocker justifies that lie?

Surely, when Shraeye didn't claim as roleblocker and you come forward as the roleblocker, we get into this same conversation.  Maybe we lynch you, maybe we don't, but is it a conversation worth having the freaking day before the deadline?  I don't think it is.

Vote: Robz

Yeah, but it wouldnt have been exactly like this, I wouldn't have looked "caught" in anything, it would have been me giving an unsolicited explanation. I thouht that would be fine,e specially since I never agreed to do this claim in the first place. As it turned out, yes it looks incriminating.

[nkirbit]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

[yuma]

I think UoS is very likely to be town. If he was a SK, he for no reason just put himself out there to be killed by mafia, not good. Ditto for mafia (also could be counterclaimed). Frustrated town just makes the most sense. UoS, I really like your style of playing and I'm sure people finding you scummy is nothing personal, even if it feels a bit unfair. And fwiw, it IS sheeping when Robz does it.

It is NOT!

Anyway, well... okay. I do actually think maybe this is sort of a genuine reaction for UoS. In the abstract I would find it scummier, but he does seem like he usually wants to be perceived correctly, and gets frustrated when he thinks he's not. So, okay.

Robz did have this reaction to eevee finding UoS townie for claiming a PR. If Robz is a PR that decreases everyone's likelihood of being a PR thus making UoS's claim less believable for him. Everyone else VTs and mafia... I think are more likely to believe it. So I think this is a point in Robz's favor.

As is his willingness and slight push to claim starting day3.

[Robz888]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

[nkirbit]

Let's say mail-mi is scum.

Remember that ash claimed not-PR.

For scum mail-mi to safely claim vig, he has to kill the vig at some point. The vig wasn't ash, assuming ash didn't lie as town (please no). So that gives him only one night to have killed the vig.

Why has your tune changed?  Before you had indicated that the only way scum!mail-mi would safely claim vig would be if he really killed the vig.  But now you think there's a chance that scum would fake claim a role they didn't have?

And not only did you think that there was a chance, you thought that chance was worth enough that you decided to lie as town to make it possible.

Lying as town is very dangerous, and can often lead to disastrous results.  See archetype in LOTR2 for a very recent example.  If you're lying as town, you better have a damn good reason to do so, and I just don't think that holding out a slight hope that Shraeye would claim roleblocker justifies that lie?

Surely, when Shraeye didn't claim as roleblocker and you come forward as the roleblocker, we get into this same conversation.  Maybe we lynch you, maybe we don't, but is it a conversation worth having the freaking day before the deadline?  I don't think it is.

Vote: Robz

Yeah, but it wouldnt have been exactly like this, I wouldn't have looked "caught" in anything, it would have been me giving an unsolicited explanation. I thouht that would be fine,e specially since I never agreed to do this claim in the first place. As it turned out, yes it looks incriminating.

Yeah, I know it's not as bad as this, but it does turn the topic of conversation to, "Do we believe Robz?", and gives us less time to analyze your results if we believe you.  If this had happened during the first RL day of day3, perhaps I would be more likely to believe you.

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

[nkirbit]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

Finish your work meeting, haha.  I promise to not lynch you until you have time to defend yourself when you're focused on it.

Unvote

[nkirbit]

Finish your work meeting, haha.  I promise to not lynch you until you have time to defend yourself when you're focused on it.

Unvote

Or perhaps not at all!  I am still thinking through it.

[Voltaire]

Crazy lunch.

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

But Robz did have strong yuma suspicion today...but did he have any D2? I need to re-read.

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

This is the big thing too.

And we still don't have shraeye.

[Voltaire]

Okay, woah. I mean, what else do you think could have possibly happened here? The mod provided the scum team fake claims, remember!

I actually think I believe this. Re-reading.

[Robz888]

Okay. Okay, I can talk now.

So, here are my notes I took for myself on who I should block on Night 1:

I'm inclined to default to blocking mail-mi, because, well, I find him scummy (per usual), and he occupies the scummiest place on the wagon, which is something that at least the SK might consider doing, because it makes him less likely to be targeted by mafia.

On the other hand, ash. Who I really felt was suspect for his VT claim. However, could he be a town PR trying to hide under guise of VT? That almost seems possible. Though it totally contradicts his plan to out all the PRs. Perhaps he planned to stay hidden when only two claimed.

Actually, why am I worrying about this. Umbrage/chairs is Cop, I am RB, and the third is Vig. It's fine to block the vig.

You know what, neither of them are performing kill if mafia. I'm going to block a random townie-seeming person who is probably actually scum because I suck at this game."

And I blocked yuma.

I didn't really take any notes for Night 2. I was going to block Eevee but it seemed like such a stupid block the more I thought about it--scum!Eevee wouldn't lurk so hard. Nkirbit was my scumread most of the day, whatever. I'm so jaded about my own scumhunting that these decisions are made a little bit at random, I fully expect random blocking to work better.

As you can see, a massclaim was on my mind because if there was a vig still alive, and we could trust that person, we might be able to figure some stuff out. But the more I thought about that, the less likely that seemed.

Yuma went forward with the massclaim anyway, sort of at random, and when I came back to the thread and saw it was claiming time... eh, I thought I could lie until all the claims came. No one suspects me very much--I thought I had enough credibility to survive reversing my claim. Especially since it wasn't going to be like a lasting lie.

Of course I knew neither Volt or shraeye were likely to claim RB, since they wouldn't have any reason to think the RB were dead. But I thought there was a chance they forget that and screw up, or do it anyway, or think the other scumteam killed the RB and has decided not to claim it, and are feeling comfortable enough to go down that road. These things were all unlikely, but I thought I might as well.

I completely, completely, completely forgot that the power role flavor claims were publicly available. I wen through the physical effort of trying to find my role PM to remember what my name is--no easy task for me, I have so so so so so so so many PMs.

I am really sorry for the mistake, and of course now it appears like I should have told the truth in the first place. It was a snap decision that I thought might help, and wouldn't hurt. Of course, my flavor claim oversight made it so that it does hurt (because it just looks fishier than it should have), so I do apologize for that.

[Robz888]

So I wasn't suspicious of yuma on Day 2, because I blocked him and there were still two kills. I assumed (wrongly, it turns out) that the Vig probably wouldn't have shot anyone--since shooting is manifestly bad for town.

Now that I know I am wrong, thins makes yuma more suspicious.

Of course it's still possible that scum duplicated the cop kill.

However, okay, this is interesting. This is something I've been thinking about.

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Yuma is pushing back against the notion that both scum shot chairs, in an effort to make mail-mi look scummier.

Let me try to explain this: In Mafia XIX, I was scum (this was multiball). I came under suspicion for killing someone that I didn't actually kill, at one point. This was frustrating. I kept arguing, no I can't be scum, I wouldn't have killed this person. The latter part was true! I hadn't killed that person. Of course I was still scum. But, you know, I really wanted to argue against this case that was not true!

Look at what yuma is doing. He is doing the same thing. He is saying "No no no, an experience scum never would have duplicated the other team's kill!" This is because that experienced scum is yuma, and he didn't duplicate the other team's kill. He killed someone else, and was roleblocked by me. That's the true explanation. Above he's arguing against the explanation that is actually technically wrong, as scum whose nevertheless incriminated by it. I bet.

Admittedly,t hat's a bit of a stretch and totally confusing. Does anyone follow my logic?

[Voltaire]

Yeah, that's not a bad idea.

I think UoS should either full claim, or we possibly should consider actually doing the 3 PRs claim generic PR thing. Which I was against, but didn't think was so bad, and we are almost forced into it here.

Robz brings up the returning-to-3-PR-claims here. I think this is a point in his favor.

I really want to hear from shraeye. His claim could still shake things up.

[mail-mi]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

[Robz888]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

Well, yuma could be the mafia. But you're right, and I hadn't recalled that.

Man this setup is pro-scum.

[yuma]

So I wasn't suspicious of yuma on Day 2, because I blocked him and there were still two kills. I assumed (wrongly, it turns out) that the Vig probably wouldn't have shot anyone--since shooting is manifestly bad for town.

Now that I know I am wrong, thins makes yuma more suspicious.

Of course it's still possible that scum duplicated the cop kill.

However, okay, this is interesting. This is something I've been thinking about.

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Yuma is pushing back against the notion that both scum shot chairs, in an effort to make mail-mi look scummier.

Let me try to explain this: In Mafia XIX, I was scum (this was multiball). I came under suspicion for killing someone that I didn't actually kill, at one point. This was frustrating. I kept arguing, no I can't be scum, I wouldn't have killed this person. The latter part was true! I hadn't killed that person. Of course I was still scum. But, you know, I really wanted to argue against this case that was not true!

Look at what yuma is doing. He is doing the same thing. He is saying "No no no, an experience scum never would have duplicated the other team's kill!" This is because that experienced scum is yuma, and he didn't duplicate the other team's kill. He killed someone else, and was roleblocked by me. That's the true explanation. Above he's arguing against the explanation that is actually technically wrong, as scum whose nevertheless incriminated by it. I bet.

Admittedly,t hat's a bit of a stretch and totally confusing. Does anyone follow my logic?

I kinda get what you are saying. But for starters you aren't looking at the full post that you yourself just quoted. Immediately below the part that you bolded I say that mail-mi saying he killed ashersky actually explains that confusion that we all had before as to why a scum team would kill ashersky, thus believing him. If I am trying to cast suspicion that isn't the way to do it. Of course all of this assumes that you are in fact the roleblocker, something I am leaning toward believing.

As mail-mi pointed out already, this theory falls flat for me being SK.

And if your theory is me being mafia and having performed the nightkill wouldn't I know that I was roleblocked because the night1 kill didn't go through? If so, mass claiming is inherently bad for me. But I am the player that brought it up again out of the blue and pushed it to occur.

Basically I see why you might have started out the day more suspicious of me if you are the roleblocker. And it does explain your "read" on me earlier that I was frustrated with because it lacked any sort of substance. But I think when you actually view the evidence it doesn't really stack up.

[Robz888]

Fair enough.

[mail-mi]

Guys, I just had this thought: is it so out there to think that mafia killed SK eevee or jorbles on N1, then when it didn't work they did it again?

[yuma]

Fair enough.

The nice thing about this though is that if I accept both mail-mi and you as town. That makes my life a lot easier in finding mafia... 4 players left. (voltaire, shraeye, nkirbit, yuma). I doubt both Jorbles and Eevee were scum. Maybe one was scum of some sort, but possibly not. If they both were town then that means all 3 other players aside from me are scum. But likely at least 2 of those 3 are. I think shraeye is the most likely to be town out of them, putting my suspicion on voltaire and nkirbit.

Again this all depends on you being town here. I think you probably are given the circumstances. And maybe I just want it to be true to cast a more optimistic light on this game.

[yuma]

Guys, I just had this thought: is it so out there to think that mafia killed SK eevee or jorbles on N1, then when it didn't work they did it again?

Not so far out there, plausible even. But I wouldn't feel comfortable banking the game on it.

It certainly would be ideal. Especially if we were able to lynch the mafia who killed the SK and get that information.

[shraeye]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

[shraeye]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

But would a scum team really try to kill a claimed VT?

I think not.  ash was likely the vig kill.  I'm believing mail-mi's claim for now.  If he's scum, then I think VigEevee or VigJorbles killed ash night one, and then mail-mi managed to hit the vig night2.  I don't see Eevee taking a night1 shot, and I think Jorbles also is a "vigs shouldn't shoot N1" proponent.  Can anybody verify Eevee/Jorbles' stances on Vigs?

[shraeye]

I think my only hang up with mail-mi's claim is that it would require both scum teams to have shot chairs. Like nkirbit said, this is possible. But is it plausible? I guess it kinda depends on who the mafia is. I think anyone that had previously played in a multiball game before would know that duplicating kills with an opposing scum team is pretty bad thus thinking that it might be better to leave the obvious kill to the other team?

But then again, I think we all were a little stumped when ashersky turned up dead. We couldn't quite figure out why scum would choose to kill him. So maybe this explains that.

Well, one scum team could also have been roleblocked.  We wouldn't have necessarily seen a successful roleblocked claimed, because the roleblocker can't have even be sure their roleblock worked.

If scum are going to both target the same player, it's going to be the claimed cop.

Yes I think I do agree with you. Although the SK is less worried about the cop than the mafia. But really I think it boils down to whether or not a scum team would want to kill ashersky. And I think the answer is probably no. So that makes mail-mi's claim more believable in the end. And I think I am going to accept it.

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

[yuma]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

[shraeye]

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

I don't see how closeness to the deadline makes Robz's play riskier.

[shraeye]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

But mafia have 2 people; an investigation lowers mafia's chances of winning, but it completely eliminates the SK.

[yuma]

I think the SK is the one who's MOST concerned about the cop.  the 1shot RB and 1shot bulletproof are very strong.  But not being 1shot investigation proof means that once the cops out of the way, SK is much easier.

I meant in that there are 2 mafia and only 1 SK. So 1/11 chance of being targeted by the cop compared to 2/11 chance (day1 of course).

But yes, you are right about the not being 1shot investigation proof. But mafia doesn't have that ability either.

But mafia have 2 people; an investigation lowers mafia's chances of winning, but it completely eliminates the SK.

Yes, that is true.

But like I said before ultimately what I think sells me on mail-mi's claim as being true is that scum wouldn't be likely to nk ash, thus it appears that both mafia and SK targeted chairs. (yes there are other alternative theories out there... Mafia targeted SK Jorbles or Eevee, but I think that one is the most likely.)

[nkirbit]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

Um, guys? SK is 1-shot roleblock proof. Robz, your theory doesn't work.

That's true... I was thinking the SK was 1-shot investigation proof, not 1-shot roleblock proof.  Which actually means it makes sense for the SK and Mafia to both kill chairs.. I was thinking that the SK wouldn't need to until their investigation proof wore off.

[nkirbit]

You had to decide that the potential benefits (Getting a scum to claim roleblocker), outweigh the costs (wasting towns time discussing whether you are town or not, giving us less time to analyze the roleblocker results) if you really are town.  You decided less than two days from the deadline that it was worth the risk, were you town.  Perhaps I could see a town member making that decision when we still have a week left until the deadline, but a town member deciding to hold back their true claim until there's just 1 day left until the hard deadline seems like suicide.

I don't see how closeness to the deadline makes Robz's play riskier.

I do think it's higher cost now.. we have what?  less than 24 hours until the deadline?  And we are talking about whether or not we believe Robz to be town or not.  If Robz is town, that's a little bit late to leave the discussion focused on a town member, especially when we could be in lylo.

[Voltaire]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

[nkirbit]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

I mean, Robz and Mail-Mi are still options, if you don't believe their claims.  I don't think they should be eliminated from consideration.

[Robz888]

I'm between Voltaire and yuma right now.

[Voltaire]

Okay hold on though, not everybody claimed, right? Still need Voltaire? Did shraeye claim?

VT

So this puts my lynch pool down to nkirbit, yuma, and shraeye, unless there is something compelling about Robz or mail-mi that I am missing.

I mean, Robz and Mail-Mi are still options, if you don't believe their claims.  I don't think they should be eliminated from consideration.

Yes, but I currently believe there claims. That's what I mean by "something compelling," because based on what's out there, I come down on the side of their claims being legit.

[Robz888]

Yuma has done a good job addressing my conerns about him, which has made me more reluctant to want to lynch him. Still, I have the most "evidence" against him, even though he has quite successfully offered plausible explanations for everything.

Voltaire would really be a POE vote.

[yuma]

I'm between Voltaire and yuma right now.

and I am between nkirbit and voltaire. I will do a reread of them tonight (if baby will let me) and likely put down a vote. I may have slightly less availability tomorrow.

[nkirbit]

Thinking about it again, Robz's not-claim and then claim doesn't really make sense as scum.

If he's scum, he's killed the roleblocker for sure.  If he had been planning to claim roleblocker, I think he would have probably just done it initially.. if scum is going to fakeclaim, they want it to look as credible as possible, and this certainly didn't do that.

It's possible that Robz is scum who has killed both a roleblocker and VT, meant to claim VT, and when he went and looked up the flavor name to claim, he simply grabbed the wrong one.  This is possible... but is it likely?  I really don't think so.  It's definitely not more likely than Robz as the roleblocker forgetting or never knowing that his flavor name indicated that he was the roleblocker.

It does seem that Mafia are more likely to edit their posts to make sure that what they're saying makes sense.  So I think scum!Robz is much more likely to catch that he's putting in the wrong flavor name than town!Robz is to catch that his flavor name is tied to his role.  So on that count, Robz gets townpoints.

[Robz888]

See? It was all a deliberate, brilliant move to make sure that my true RB claim was credible! 

[nkirbit]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

Hm.  This is a little worrying though.  When I was talking about how Robz should suspect Yuma, I was mistaken.. I had forgotten that the SK was roleblockproof.  But Robz kind of jumped on it... despite it being wrong.

[Robz888]

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

Hm.  This is a little worrying though.  When I was talking about how Robz should suspect Yuma, I was mistaken.. I had forgotten that the SK was roleblockproof.  But Robz kind of jumped on it... despite it being wrong.

I had no idea the SK had RB until mail-mi mentioned it a few posts ago. I did indeed spend the early part of Day 2 wondering whether my RBing blocked a bill. I eventually decided I didn't block a kill, because I eventually presumed the vig had not shot and two scum kills were accounted for.

[shraeye]

that seems consistent with what Robz was saying/theorizing about the vig on day2.  I'm getting the feeling that both PRs are believable.  This brings the lynchpool to nkirbit/yuma/Voltaire.

I'm still pro-nkirbit lynch, but I think we are dealing with either 2 or 3 scum outta that pool, so I'm not opposed to considering other cases.

[shraeye]

well; I think we need to lynch one of nkirbit/yuma and have Robz roleblock the other one.  This is because Robz already roleblocked each of them once, so whether they are SK or if they are mafia with partner dead, he is sure to stop a kill.

If they flip town then it's likely that the other and Voltaire are both scum.  In this case, one of Eevee/Jorbles is likely to be the mafioso's partner and the other is SK.  Robz's roleblock on the living member of yuma/nkirbit is sure to stop a kill then.

If they flip mafia, then the other is either mafia-partner, or SK who already lost RB-protection.  If they flip SK is the one case that is more complicated, but then we'll learn whether there is 1 or 2 mafias left for sure.  So that's actually a really nice case.

[Robz888]

well; I think we need to lynch one of nkirbit/yuma and have Robz roleblock the other one.  This is because Robz already roleblocked each of them once, so whether they are SK or if they are mafia with partner dead, he is sure to stop a kill.

If they flip town then it's likely that the other and Voltaire are both scum.  In this case, one of Eevee/Jorbles is likely to be the mafioso's partner and the other is SK.  Robz's roleblock on the living member of yuma/nkirbit is sure to stop a kill then.

If they flip mafia, then the other is either mafia-partner, or SK who already lost RB-protection.  If they flip SK is the one case that is more complicated, but then we'll learn whether there is 1 or 2 mafias left for sure.  So that's actually a really nice case.

I agree. This actually seems to have worked out sort of well, and we aren't in nearly as dire a situation as I thought.

So we need to decide on a lynch, and decide who I am blocking, and decide who/whether mail-mi shoots. And we need to do this soon.

[shraeye]

tonight would be good.  I'm breaking out in hives, and if I benedryl up, I'm not going to be so useful tomorrow.

[Robz888]

tonight would be good.  I'm breaking out in hives, and if I benedryl up, I'm not going to be so useful tomorrow.

Yeah. Well, I'm not a big fan of lynching nkirbit, to be honest. Why do you find him scummy?

[nkirbit]

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Robz!  I want to lynch Voltaire!

[shraeye]

another thing that makes me want to go with lynching nkirbit is this:

Want to lynch: Liopoil
Would lynch: Robz
Could lynch: Mail-Mi, Yuma, Voltaire
Don't want to lynch:  Jorbles, Shraeye, Eevee

The people who died last night were on his towny list, and starting today he immediately turned on me. 

yuma is right that he, Robz, Voltaire were all calling nkirbit scummy yesterday.  But none of those guys showed up dead, but nkirbit's opening posts today basically were saying "looks like scum liked how things were going, let's look elsewhere".


This just looks like he's opening himself to be able to jump onto any lynch that comes up and is favorable to him.



And this on top of the part that I said earlier.

[shraeye]

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Robz!  I want to lynch Voltaire!

nobody's saying stuff about Robz, why bring that up?

[nkirbit]

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Robz!  I want to lynch Voltaire!

nobody's saying stuff about Robz, why bring that up?

I thought you had said we should lynch one of Nkirbit/Robz and not one of Nkirbit/Yuma.  My mistake.

More of a fan of lynching Yuma than lynching Robz, but prefer Voltaire to both of them!

[nkirbit]

another thing that makes me want to go with lynching nkirbit is this:

Want to lynch: Liopoil
Would lynch: Robz
Could lynch: Mail-Mi, Yuma, Voltaire
Don't want to lynch:  Jorbles, Shraeye, Eevee

The people who died last night were on his towny list, and starting today he immediately turned on me. 

yuma is right that he, Robz, Voltaire were all calling nkirbit scummy yesterday.  But none of those guys showed up dead, but nkirbit's opening posts today basically were saying "looks like scum liked how things were going, let's look elsewhere".


This just looks like he's opening himself to be able to jump onto any lynch that comes up and is favorable to him.



And this on top of the part that I said earlier.

See, but you've said it yourself that I have a history of killing people who find me scummy.  None of those people who found me scummy are dead.  Why are you ignoring that piece of evidence?

[nkirbit]

I feel like I've been pretty upfront about my desire to lynch one of Shraeye/Voltaire today.  I don't think I've been leaving myself open.

[Robz888]

I, on the other hand, see the fact that there are no other players advocating a yuma lynch as evidence that it's him.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.4


nkirbit (1): shraeye
Robz (1): mail-mi
Not Voting (4): Robz888, Voltaire, nkirbit, yuma

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends on September 6th at 6:15 PM Forum Time.

Added in the missing flavor.

[shraeye]

another thing that makes me want to go with lynching nkirbit is this:

Want to lynch: Liopoil
Would lynch: Robz
Could lynch: Mail-Mi, Yuma, Voltaire
Don't want to lynch:  Jorbles, Shraeye, Eevee

The people who died last night were on his towny list, and starting today he immediately turned on me. 

yuma is right that he, Robz, Voltaire were all calling nkirbit scummy yesterday.  But none of those guys showed up dead, but nkirbit's opening posts today basically were saying "looks like scum liked how things were going, let's look elsewhere".


This just looks like he's opening himself to be able to jump onto any lynch that comes up and is favorable to him.



And this on top of the part that I said earlier.

See, but you've said it yourself that I have a history of killing people who find me scummy.  None of those people who found me scummy are dead.  Why are you ignoring that piece of evidence?

Because you yourself very specifically noted this at the very start of day3.  It makes for WIFOM and scumplay and all that.

[shraeye]

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Robz!  I want to lynch Voltaire!

nobody's saying stuff about Robz, why bring that up?

Additionally this post above is very out of line with nkirbit's vote unvote revote unvote action on Robz based around his roleblocker claim.

That was all followed by #1302 where nkirbit said Robz's claim made sense.  But then followed AGAIN by this

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

Hm.  This is a little worrying though.  When I was talking about how Robz should suspect Yuma, I was mistaken.. I had forgotten that the SK was roleblockproof.  But Robz kind of jumped on it... despite it being wrong.

That was nkirbit's last post before popping in to yell "Why would ANYBODY want to lynch Robz!"....which also happened immediately after Robz agreed to a roleblocky plan, but indicated that he wasn't thrilled about lynching nkirbit.

[Voltaire]

I totally wasn't connecting the dots that we still had Robz's roleblock, no matter what happens.

My preference is for nkirbit first, then yuma. Shraeye third. nkirbit over yuma because although I find it damning he's alive I'm more comfortable lynching the player who has been continually scummy since D1.

[yuma]

well; I think we need to lynch one of nkirbit/yuma and have Robz roleblock the other one.  This is because Robz already roleblocked each of them once, so whether they are SK or if they are mafia with partner dead, he is sure to stop a kill.

If they flip town then it's likely that the other and Voltaire are both scum.  In this case, one of Eevee/Jorbles is likely to be the mafioso's partner and the other is SK.  Robz's roleblock on the living member of yuma/nkirbit is sure to stop a kill then.

If they flip mafia, then the other is either mafia-partner, or SK who already lost RB-protection.  If they flip SK is the one case that is more complicated, but then we'll learn whether there is 1 or 2 mafias left for sure.  So that's actually a really nice case.

I think I am in favor of this (obviously I prefer nkirbit over myself)... my only concerns are twofold.

First. It is a wasted RB on me from my perspective... I mean you guys can't know this, but it means 100% guaranteed that the RB won't be used effectively to stop a kill. I guess that is a sacrifice we have to make. But maybe it isn't that big of a sacrifice because if mail-mi (again assuming mail-mi is the Vig, which I think we are basically doing until evidence points otherwise) doesn't kill in night and there are still two kills I am basically an IC? (that only works out if we lynch nkirbit and he is mafia. If he is SK and there is still 1 kill (again if mail-mi doesn't shoot) I am still an IC?)

Second. Is related to the second part of the first, is it something that mafia can manipulate to their advantage to place me in a scummy light come tomorrow? I haven't worked through any scenarios, but I think it is something we should at least consider before going through with this plan...

But regardless if I am the lynch today (I shouldn't be) nkirbit should absolutely be the RB tonight.

I still think the vig should only shoot if we mislynch tonight. If we hit SK or mafia I think he should withhold his shot, but we should check the math on that

[yuma]

I'm not a huge fan of lynching Robz!  I want to lynch Voltaire!

nobody's saying stuff about Robz, why bring that up?

Additionally this post above is very out of line with nkirbit's vote unvote revote unvote action on Robz based around his roleblocker claim.

That was all followed by #1302 where nkirbit said Robz's claim made sense.  But then followed AGAIN by this

Sadly, there's nothing much to say about both of those. I went back and forth about blocking ash, and then decided instead to block someone at random that I wasn't even very suspicious of.

On Night 2 I was going to block Eevee and then changed my mind to nkirbit.

Why Eevee?  Why did you change your mind?  Why me?

What do your results tell you?  We seemingly have a missing kill now from N1, knowing that Mail-Mi shot Ash.  Do you think Yuma is the SK, given that you roleblocked him N1 and neither Ashersky nor Chairs seem like a logical target for the SK?

If I were the roleblocker and I had roleblocked Yuma night1, as soon as mail-mi revealed that he vigged Ash night1, I would be very, very suspicious of Yuma being the Serial Killer.  I think I would be right in that suspicion.  But even now, after your results have been claimed, you haven't shown any indication that you're more suspicious of Yuma than you were before.  Why not?

I do have that suspicion, and I was going to get into that when I fullclaimed, after shraeye had had the chance to fakeclaim RB. I still think it's perfectly plausible that scumteams duplicated the cop kill. But yes, this does lend credence to yuma suspicion. I also thought he reacted to mail mi's confession in a scummy way. I was going to say all this, after shraeye claimed. As is I'm flustered and caught off guard (and typing this from a work meeting!).

Hm.  This is a little worrying though.  When I was talking about how Robz should suspect Yuma, I was mistaken.. I had forgotten that the SK was roleblockproof.  But Robz kind of jumped on it... despite it being wrong.

That was nkirbit's last post before popping in to yell "Why would ANYBODY want to lynch Robz!"....which also happened immediately after Robz agreed to a roleblocky plan, but indicated that he wasn't thrilled about lynching nkirbit.

To add to this I felt that nkirbit was extremely quick to get on the Robz wagon for his lie. I mean, yes it was a lie, but he seemed overeager to find a reason to vote for Robz and get something started for what (if robz is in fact the RB) nkirbit would likely know was town lie rather than a scumslip lie.

[mail-mi]

This recent spur of posts by nkirbit has made me reevaluate my town read on him and would totally prefer him over Yuma.

[nkirbit]

This recent spur of posts by nkirbit has made me reevaluate my town read on him and would totally prefer him over Yuma.

Vague vague vague.  Why?  And why did you wait to say this until immediately after Yuma had stated it?

Come up with someone original for once.

[mail-mi]

And why did you wait to say this until immediately after Yuma had stated it?

Because I was at karate.

Come up with someone original for once.

vote: nkirbit <- that original enough for ya?

Listen. I play this game to have fun. Not to do extra work. If there's a good Idea I agree with, I'm not gonna do work to come to the same conclusion.

[yuma]

And why did you wait to say this until immediately after Yuma had stated it?

Because I was at karate.

Come up with someone original for once.

vote: nkirbit <- that original enough for ya?

Listen. I play this game to have fun. Not to do extra work. If there's a good Idea I agree with, I'm not gonna do work to come to the same conclusion.

Oooh Snap!

[nkirbit]

And why did you wait to say this until immediately after Yuma had stated it?

Because I was at karate.

Come up with someone original for once.

vote: nkirbit <- that original enough for ya?

Listen. I play this game to have fun. Not to do extra work. If there's a good Idea I agree with, I'm not gonna do work to come to the same conclusion.

Unfortunately, no.

[nkirbit]

Maybe when you've realized you've sheeped onto town cases consecutive day's you'll learn to build your own cases.  Sitting back and waiting to see who the lynch is going to be, and then sheeping onto it. as a town member, is NOT a good idea, especially when scum could occupy 50% of the voices!  If you're town and we have 3 scum, you're literally sitting back and waiting for the consensus of a group that's 60% scum!  That's not how you win as town, because you're not going to like the outcome nearly all of the time!

If you want to win games, you gotta do the work yourself, because you shouldn't trust anyone other than yourself.  Seriously.

Lazy town play kills town.  I'm definitely guilty of that myself this game... I lurked through 4 days or so multiple days in a row because I frankly don't give a shit about this game enough to focus on it for more than 2 or 3 days at a time.  So I have only myself to blame.  But if you do want to win, and I think you do, don't sheep cases.. Make them yourself.  Because you're the only one you can trust.

[Robz888]

Yeah mail-mi, this is supposed to be fun, not work. Agreed! But, when you are town, and you know you are town, and everyone now basicaly agrees that you are town, you get extra obligation to actually do stuff here. Because your word counts more than Voltaire, shraeye, nkirbit, or yuma. They are all maybe scums, you are not (for the sake of argument right now).

Really you and I (and shraeye, who I still think is town based on Day 1) have to do decide matters here based on what we think, not what on other people think.

The "what other people think" thing is a big deal here, by the way, and it's the thing that draws me back toward yuma. Because scum have to be fairly unwilling to lynch partners here. So if both mafia are still around and everyone is saying "lynch nkirbit!" that means there is at least one mafia saying that, and mafia wouldn't say that if nkirbit is mafia.

I have this feeling I can't suppress (and there I go again with feelings, yuma is going to love this) that the SK is dead (was either Jorbles or Eevee), was shot in back-to-back nights by the mafia to kill him, and the scum!team is yuma/Voltaire. Or even yuma/shraeye.

[nkirbit]

I don't get why no one is suspicious of Shraeye.  What did he do day1 to make him not deserve your suspicion?

[mail-mi]

Okay, so I thought we were going with the plan of we lynch one of nk/yuma, and you roleblock the other. I would rather lynch nk, but above nk, and if we're not doing the plan, then voltaire is my preferred.

unvote to confirm if we're doing the plan or not.

[mail-mi]

I don't get why no one is suspicious of Shraeye.  What did he do day1 to make him not deserve your suspicion?

Well, for me it's what he did D2: the giant reread of the thread. I just don't think scum would put in that much work. And none of it looked faked.

[nkirbit]

I don't get why no one is suspicious of Shraeye.  What did he do day1 to make him not deserve your suspicion?

Well, for me it's what he did D2: the giant reread of the thread. I just don't think scum would put in that much work. And none of it looked faked.

You... don't think scum would put in that much work?  I think they would for sure!  Especially in this game, where scum needs to find the other team!

Not that he's scummy for doing the work or anything.. it's great that he did it!  But I certainly don't think he's towny for doing so.

[Robz888]

One thing about shraeye that speaks to his towniness is his uneven level of participation. Huge cases, and then lengthy disappeareances, is a town trait, I think.

[shraeye]

I still think the vig should only shoot if we mislynch tonight. If we hit SK or mafia I think he should withhold his shot, but we should check the math on that

Ok.  Here's what I'm thinking.  If nkirbit is mafia, then either mafia is gone, or we're left with SK/mafia.  in this case, if mafia is now gone and SK gets a kill, then we're at 3 town, 1SK next day.  If Robz blocks the SK kill (that would mean that nkirbit/yuma is SK) then we would be at 4town, 1SK, and mail-mi shouldn't shoot.  So that comes down to whether robz blocks the kill or not I guess.  I would lean towards not shooting, as he'll have a chance to shoot post MYLO situation too.   But, if there is 1 mafia left, then we'll go into night as 1maf/1SK/3town and there will be two shots.  worst case scenario is 1/1/1 and town gets to kingmake.  If SK hits mafia, then it's 2town/1SK in the final day; classic LYLO.  So here mail-mi shouldn't shoot I think.

Overall I tink if nkirbit is mafia, it's bad to shoot.

So if nkirbit is SK. Then 1 or 2 mafia remain.  We'll also know this, ebcause the SK's kills will be shoown.  If 1mafia remains, then next day will be 1maf/3town.  Here, mail-mi could afford to shoot.  If he misses it's LYLO instead of MYLO.  If 2 mafia remain, then the next day will be 2maf/2town, and mail-mi HAS to shoot to prevent this.

If nkirbit is SK, I think mail-mi should shoot.

LAstly, if nkirbit is a mislynch, then we have either 1maf/1SK or 2maf/1SK in worst scenario.  town is ultra screwed here.  if it's 2maf/1SK, town can hope that mafia shoots SK and SK shoots mafia.  Then it'll be 2town, 1mafia, 1SK next day (if SK lost bulletproof, they lost it on night 1 and it must have been Eevee/Jorbles and all this analysis is off...or mafia is ridiculous and didn't shoot at SK again).  I think it's in the best interest for mail-mi to shoot in that case.  If it was 1maf/1SK, then next day would be something like 1/1/1 (mailmi should have shot), or 2/1/1 (mailmi should have shot), or 2-3town/1SK (it would be bad for mail-mi to shoot if SK hits maf, and mafia hits town; but good if scum shoot eachother)

In that last case, there is one scenario where shooting was bad, but most of the time, I think shooting is good here too.


I'm tired and pretty hive-y so hopefully that all makes sense.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi, how about this plan.

We lynch Voltaire.

I block yuma.

You shoot nkirbit.

[mail-mi]

Mail-mi, how about this plan.

We lynch Voltaire.

I block yuma.

You shoot nkirbit.

Ya know what, I think that's a great idea. And I could go for any interchanging between voltaire and nkirbit.

[Robz888]

I think we should kill Voltaire, because I think he is a partner to the mafia regardless. It's the sort of game he has played.

[Robz888]

Okay, I do like this plan.

If yuma/shraeye are mafia we lose, and that would suck, but oh well. Gotta take a risk at some point.

[Robz888]

Vote: Voltaire

[mail-mi]

Okay, I do like this plan.

If yuma/shraeye are mafia we lose, and that would suck, but oh well. Gotta take a risk at some point.

And they are the two not-PRs that I have the highest townreads on.

So yeah. Vote: Voltaire

[shraeye]

is my analysis crazy?

If voltaire is one of the mafia partners, then mail-mi shouldnt shoot.  I think it's only good for vig to shoot if we hit SK or get a mislynch.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.5

nkirbit (1): shraeye
Voltaire (2): Robz888, mail-mi
Not Voting (3): Voltaire, nkirbit, yuma

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends on September 6th at 6:15 PM Forum Time.

[Robz888]

is my analysis crazy?

If voltaire is one of the mafia partners, then mail-mi shouldnt shoot.  I think it's only good for vig to shoot if we hit SK or get a mislynch.

No, I think mail-mi should shoot. I don't get why he wouln't shoot. It's just basically an extra piece of information, at this point. We have these few suspects that we basically have to neutralize at some point.

[mail-mi]

is my analysis crazy?

If voltaire is one of the mafia partners, then mail-mi shouldnt shoot.  I think it's only good for vig to shoot if we hit SK or get a mislynch.

No I quite liked it.

To quote Mater's Tall Tales, MODIFY!

If volt is mafia, I will not shoot, otherwise I will shoot nkirbit.

[Robz888]

is my analysis crazy?

If voltaire is one of the mafia partners, then mail-mi shouldnt shoot.  I think it's only good for vig to shoot if we hit SK or get a mislynch.

No I quite liked it.

To quote Mater's Tall Tales, MODIFY!

If volt is mafia, I will not shoot, otherwise I will shoot nkirbit.

I think you should shoot nkirbit anyway. Why would you not? We need to know if he is scum. If you shoot him, we'll know.

Or else we're just going to wonder if we should lynch him tomorrow.

[Voltaire]

I think we should kill Voltaire, because I think he is a partner to the mafia regardless. It's the sort of game he has played.

Hold on. If you guys think I (or anyone else) am mafia, you need to have mail-mi vig me, not lynch me! Because the SK won't die to a vig. I'm neither but hey. It increases the odds our lynch today is correct, and we need to lynch for the SK anyway. Right? Regardless of who anyone thinks that is.

vote: nkirbit. I'd much rather go with that plan! I guess if mail-mi needs to vig me at night if we're wrong about nkirbit so be it. As long as town can still win in that situation.

At the very least I am glad that Robz is leading something, because I do actually agree with nkirbit that it is bad for mail-mi to sheep.

[nkirbit]

vote: Voltaire

[Robz888]

I think we should kill Voltaire, because I think he is a partner to the mafia regardless. It's the sort of game he has played.

Hold on. If you guys think I (or anyone else) am mafia, you need to have mail-mi vig me, not lynch me! Because the SK won't die to a vig. I'm neither but hey. It increases the odds our lynch today is correct, and we need to lynch for the SK anyway. Right? Regardless of who anyone thinks that is.

vote: nkirbit. I'd much rather go with that plan! I guess if mail-mi needs to vig me at night if we're wrong about nkirbit so be it. As long as town can still win in that situation.

At the very least I am glad that Robz is leading something, because I do actually agree with nkirbit that it is bad for mail-mi to sheep.

That actually does make some sense. Hmm.

[Robz888]

I mean, the fact that it's you pointing it out just makes me think you are the SK and you still have BP, or something.

[Voltaire]

I mean, the fact that it's you pointing it out just makes me think you are the SK and you still have BP, or something.

Well yeah, I figured you would also think that, but put yourself in my place as town. It looks like our "ICs" want me dead, so I want to die in the most constructive way possible.

[Robz888]

I mean, the fact that it's you pointing it out just makes me think you are the SK and you still have BP, or something.

Well yeah, I figured you would also think that, but put yourself in my place as town. It looks like our "ICs" want me dead, so I want to die in the most constructive way possible.

Yeah I get that.

[shraeye]

is my analysis crazy?

If voltaire is one of the mafia partners, then mail-mi shouldnt shoot.  I think it's only good for vig to shoot if we hit SK or get a mislynch.

No I quite liked it.

To quote Mater's Tall Tales, MODIFY!

If volt is mafia, I will not shoot, otherwise I will shoot nkirbit.

I think you should shoot nkirbit anyway. Why would you not? We need to know if he is scum. If you shoot him, we'll know.

Or else we're just going to wonder if we should lynch him tomorrow.

wait, i maed mistakes laast nihgt in analyzis.  it's good if mail-mi shoots, ubecause in lots of cases he will hit mafia, and in others he will act as SK copl.  if we know he's hitting somebody, we don't ahave to ask ourselves if he's alive because mailmi didn't shoot, or if hes SK.  bendaryl does not mix with little sleep.  so yea sto mailmi sjooting.

[mail-mi]

I think we should kill Voltaire, because I think he is a partner to the mafia regardless. It's the sort of game he has played.

Hold on. If you guys think I (or anyone else) am mafia, you need to have mail-mi vig me, not lynch me! Because the SK won't die to a vig. I'm neither but hey. It increases the odds our lynch today is correct, and we need to lynch for the SK anyway. Right? Regardless of who anyone thinks that is.

vote: nkirbit. I'd much rather go with that plan! I guess if mail-mi needs to vig me at night if we're wrong about nkirbit so be it. As long as town can still win in that situation.

At the very least I am glad that Robz is leading something, because I do actually agree with nkirbit that it is bad for mail-mi to sheep.

This depends on whether we think Nkirbit is SK or not. And truthfully, I think he is more likely to be the SK. So yeah, I think I'll vote: nkirbit

[nkirbit]

The scummy thing that Voltaire and shraeye pointed out about me only applies if I'm the mafia. I'm neither, but the sk would have no clue if both players who died last night were town. He couldnt

[mail-mi]

The scummy thing that Voltaire and shraeye pointed out about me only applies if I'm the mafia. I'm neither, but the sk would have no clue if both players who died last night were town. He couldnt

Yes he would. He knows he killed town, and he knows the mafia didn't kill him. Therefore, he knows both are town (or not town).

[nkirbit]

The scummy thing that Voltaire and shraeye pointed out about me only applies if I'm the mafia. I'm neither, but the sk would have no clue if both players who died last night were town. He couldnt

Yes he would. He knows he killed town, and he knows the mafia didn't kill him. Therefore, he knows both are town (or not town).

I guess that's true, haha

[yuma]

So I guess at this point we are basically banking the game on Robz being the RB, mail-mi being the Vig and shraeye being a VT.

Thus both voltaire and nkirbit are mafia/sk and one of eevee/jorbles is the other?

That is a lot of variables, maybe more than I am comfortable with, but honestly it is the scenario that just makes the most sense right now. It fits better than anything else out there. I think the most likely of the three variables to be false is mail-mi being the vig. But even that I think has something of a pretty low likelihood, yes?

So I think I am comfortable with this plan of lynching nkirbit, vigging voltaire and RBing (I guess me) but hopefully we have already won at that point. If we haven't won then we will have to readdress the issue, but will hopefully be at a situation where we can....

I am willing to vote nkirbit. he is at L-1. So I will hold off I guess until we feel like we are ready to go forward.

[nkirbit]

If you lynch me, when I flip town, rb shraeye and kill Voltaire, please.

[nkirbit]

Or the other way around

[Robz888]

If you lynch me, when I flip town, rb shraeye and kill Voltaire, please.

I'll take this under consideration.

Mail-mi, please shoot Voltaire. Do not shoot shraeye.

I think I'm ready to vote nkirbit. I just... just to be like super clear... no chance of yuma/shraeye scum team? Because if we follow this plan and that's the scum team, we lose. I think that's the only way we really and truly lose.

[nkirbit]

It would make sense. Shraeye saying kill one of Yuma/nkirbit.. Yuma was never going to be the choice. Roleblocking Yuma wouldn't matter, since shraeye could do the kill

Robz, don't commit to roleblocking anyone

[Robz888]

It would make sense. Shraeye saying kill one of Yuma/nkirbit.. Yuma was never going to be the choice. Roleblocking Yuma wouldn't matter, since shraeye could do the kill

Robz, don't commit to roleblocking anyone

Yeah, I know. But if that's the team it's not going to matter, because even if their kill fails, we start tomorrow with 2 town (me and mailmi) and 2 scum (yuma and shraeye) and that means town loses.

Actually, this is a question for the mod: Would you call the game in that case? Because technically town could still win. We couldn't lynch, but we could go in to the next night, and if I RBed correctly, mail-mi would shoot scum and restore our numbers and we'd be good. Or do you call it be default when scum are 50%?

[Robz888]

I obviously have to rule out some pairing here. I hate hate hate that whichever one I rule out is the one it's going to be.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi, I might actually want you to shoot yuma. I'm going to be going back and forth on this until deadline. Please shoot whoever I tell you to shoot--it's really important. You've admitted you aren't paying really good attention and are just sheeping people--so sheep me here, okay? You are assuming I'm town, as I am assuming you are town, and we are rolling with that, so just do what I say. I just don't know what I want you to do yet. Whatever thing I say last, do that.

[Robz888]

To those in the spec QT: I am issuing a pre-preemptive apology for getting wrong what is undoubtedly obvious to Galz, Eevee, ash, TA, et al.

[yuma]

Mail-mi, I might actually want you to shoot yuma. I'm going to be going back and forth on this until deadline. Please shoot whoever I tell you to shoot--it's really important. You've admitted you aren't paying really good attention and are just sheeping people--so sheep me here, okay? You are assuming I'm town, as I am assuming you are town, and we are rolling with that, so just do what I say. I just don't know what I want you to do yet. Whatever thing I say last, do that.

Hmmm. Well I obviously don't like the idea of being shot at during the night. That basically means that if (again assuming mail-mi/robz are in fact town) nkirbit is the SK and voltaire/shraeye are the scum team, then we have lost the game (Robz, mail-mi, voltaire and shraeye alive at the least). This is the same fear that you have if me/shraeye are the scum team.

Although if nkirbit is mafia then it is less worrisome. Because, hopefully that means one of the following:
1. Jorbles or eevee were his partner. So only have to worry about the SK (voltaire or shraeye)
2. if the SK is still alive that shot my be directed at the other mafia member or vice versa thus there would be two town and 1 scum so the game continues...

And Robz from the OP it says:

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're Dalek Sec/Dalek Caan, the Dalek-aligned first/second in command Cannibal Goon for the Cult of Skaro. You win when all other killers are dead and you control the majority of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

So if mail-mi as the vig is alive the game would continue as he is another killer.

[yuma]

Fixed: I said the below, not archetype.

Welcome, [Player Name], to The Doctor's Dinner Party. Looks like you're Dalek Sec/Dalek Caan, the Dalek-aligned first/second in command Cannibal Goon for the Cult of Skaro. You win when all other killers are dead and you control the majority of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

So if mail-mi as the vig is alive the game would continue as he is another killer.

[Robz888]

Well that's good.

[nkirbit]

Don't hammer before you definitevely say who you want mail-mi to shoot.  Right now it's not entirely clear.

[yuma]

Don't hammer before you definitevely say who you want mail-mi to shoot.  Right now it's not entirely clear.

Yes, I think at this point if anyone hammers but robz... well that should be an admission of guilt. Robz I'll leave the hammering up to you. I am not quite as stat obsessed as ashersky when it comes to that particular stat...

[Robz888]

Yuma, what's putting me over the line with you is how hard it's been to convince everybody that you need to die despite a lot of evidence for you possibly being scum (which I agree you have refuted fairly well, but still). Contrast with nkirbit, who has been casually voted and offered for a lynch a billion times, by everyone. I think experience tells us which of those two people end up being scum.

[yuma]

Yuma, what's putting me over the line with you is how hard it's been to convince everybody that you need to die despite a lot of evidence for you possibly being scum (which I agree you have refuted fairly well, but still). Contrast with nkirbit, who has been casually voted and offered for a lynch a billion times, by everyone. I think experience tells us which of those two people end up being scum.

If we had a game with 3-4 mafia still alive I guess I could see your point. But we don't. Scum is either solitary (SK or just one mafia left alive) or there are two mafia working together. If you think I am one of them then I am guessing you think one of my partners is someone who hasn't wanted to vote for me? there has been some good support for not lynching me (but I think more of that has to do with me being townie and better options?), shraeye, mail-mi and nkirbit have all been pretty hesitant to lynch me, yes.

Mail-mi we are treating as a vig.

nkirbit... he is today's lynch... so....

I get your concern that it is a shraeye/yuma scum team. I don't know what I can do to alleviate that. We aren't. Really the only thing I can do is to say lynch nkirbit. I am fairly certain that he is mafia. If we are wrong, RB one of us and shoot the other? Even though I don't like the idea of me being shoot as it puts us down an additional townie.... But ultimately I don't think we are wrong here. Maybe we are letting voltaire off too easy, but he has certainly been the townier of the two. And shraeye has been the towniest of the three (I think you agree with me there).

[yuma]

Yuma, what's putting me over the line with you is how hard it's been to convince everybody that you need to die despite a lot of evidence for you possibly being scum (which I agree you have refuted fairly well, but still). Contrast with nkirbit, who has been casually voted and offered for a lynch a billion times, by everyone. I think experience tells us which of those two people end up being scum.

I think one thing to consider is that if eevee and jorbles were mafia it is worth noting that neither of them wanted much of anything to do with the nkirbit lynch, correct? Yes. I just checked. Both were voting for you. We don't know their alignment, but I am hoping one of them is mafia. (maybe not super likely as it would have needed to have been the SK kill) If so, I think they may have been pushing your wagon in hopes of avoiding the nkirbit wagon day2. But that is just speculation at this point and doesn't add much to what is already there in terms of the case on nkirbit.

Really I think that is what you are missing. You are looking at 2 pieces of evidence from night actions that can be interpreted extremely ambiguously but aren't really looking at nkirbit's play or the evidence against him. Yes that can also be interpreted ambiguously, but I tend to trust those types of reads much more than the inherint WIFOM of whether someone was left alive or not for a particular reason.

[Robz888]

It's just that nkirbit has flailed and fired wildly like a frustrated, death-averse townie. You have coolly and calmly handled everything that came at you. Which in truth I more or less expect from you either way.

[nkirbit]

I don't like the shooting Yuma plan.  I would be much much happier shooting Voltaire.

[Robz888]

Shraeye has not received a single vote the entire game.

[nkirbit]

vote: shraeye

First!

[Robz888]

Voltaire and nkirbit have voted for yuma. Nkirbit did so quite seriously. Voltaire's was probably inconsequential.

[Robz888]

Jorbles was the only person to vote for Voltaire with any seriousness until I did.

[Robz888]

Nkirbit received votes from lots of people. Very serious votes from yuma and Voltaire.

[nkirbit]

Btw.. If I were scum I would self hammer before giving you guys time to sort through your night actions, no?  Because its obvious I'm the lynch at this point!

vote: voltaire

[Robz888]

So in order of scrutiny received, it's like less<shraeye<Voltaire<yuma<nkirbit<more

[yuma]

It's just that nkirbit has flailed and fired wildly like a frustrated, death-averse townie. You have coolly and calmly handled everything that came at you. Which in truth I more or less expect from you either way.

Well then should we be looking elsewhere??? Voltaire, shraeye... I prefer volt way over shraeye based off my reread of him. I think he is town.

I am going to be pretty hit and miss for the rest of the day. Since you don't need my vote for nkirbit maybe I'll just put one down on voltaire in case we decide to go that way. vote: voltaire But I still think nkirbit is the way to go.

[Robz888]

Btw.. If I were scum I would self hammer before giving you guys time to sort through your night actions, no?  Because its obvious I'm the lynch at this point!

vote: voltaire

It's not obvious you are the lynch. I don't want to lynch you.

[Robz888]

It's just that nkirbit has flailed and fired wildly like a frustrated, death-averse townie. You have coolly and calmly handled everything that came at you. Which in truth I more or less expect from you either way.

Well then should we be looking elsewhere??? Voltaire, shraeye... I prefer volt way over shraeye based off my reread of him. I think he is town.

I am going to be pretty hit and miss for the rest of the day. Since you don't need my vote for nkirbit maybe I'll just put one down on voltaire in case we decide to go that way. vote: voltaire But I still think nkirbit is the way to go.

Thank you! I appreciate this.

[Voltaire]

Careful! I've been following along silently because there's not really anything to say unless Robz asks, but remember that the most recent person to receive a vote in case of a tie is the lynch. We need to remember that.

[Robz888]

What we need to do is lynch someone, and then if they are town, shoot the person they most want dead.

[nkirbit]

Careful! I've been following along silently because there's not really anything to say unless Robz asks, but remember that the most recent person to receive a vote in case of a tie is the lynch. We need to remember that.

I mean, what, we should keep this in mind so that the person who voted most recently doesnt accidentally lynh the person they're voting for?  If they're voting for someone at this point, I assume they're okay with them being lynched

[Robz888]

Okay well, I'm not lynching nkirbit, period. I'm just trusting my analysis and gut here.

I want to lynch either Voltaire or yuma.

[Voltaire]

Careful! I've been following along silently because there's not really anything to say unless Robz asks, but remember that the most recent person to receive a vote in case of a tie is the lynch. We need to remember that.

I mean, what, we should keep this in mind so that the person who voted most recently doesnt accidentally lynh the person they're voting for?  If they're voting for someone at this point, I assume they're okay with them being lynched

Yes but what if that person isn't Robz or mail-mi?

[nkirbit]

Careful! I've been following along silently because there's not really anything to say unless Robz asks, but remember that the most recent person to receive a vote in case of a tie is the lynch. We need to remember that.

I mean, what, we should keep this in mind so that the person who voted most recently doesnt accidentally lynh the person they're voting for?  If they're voting for someone at this point, I assume they're okay with them being lynched

Yes but what if that person isn't Robz or mail-mi?

Well, if its me, I'd be quite happy!

[Voltaire]

I want to lynch either Voltaire or yuma.

Well, vote: yuma then.

[Robz888]

Okay. We lynch Voltaire.

If Voltaire is scum, that means nkirbit is probably town... I think... they've really been so anti-each other.

If Voltaire flips scum, mail-mi should shoot yuma. My RBing target will remain a mystery for WIFOM (I think I erroneously stated earlier that mailmi and I dont want to target the same person, but obviously that's wrong, it's fine if we do and maybe we do).

If Voltaire flips town, mail-mi should shoot nkirbit... ugh, so we can lose the yuma/shraye scumteam. No, I don't like that.

Okay, let's lynch Voltaire. I want mail-mi to shoot yuma regardless.

This could be wrong, but I think it is a combination of my best guess and hedging. I should not have afforded shraeye so much immunity; he has been like totally shielded from serious examination.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi, I want you to shoot yuma.

This plan backfires if scumteam is nkirbit/shraeye. I think this is probably like the least likely scenario. It's the one I am most comfortable shunting aside at least.

Vote: Voltaire

If this backfires, I'm sorry guys. I'm really trying my best here. This is very, very difficult.

[Robz888]

Obviously there are other ways we can backfire here, with SK and I don't know what else. But I don't think yuma is the SK, so that's a plus.

I don't really have time to back up my assertions here, I'm sorry.

[Robz888]

So stressful!!!

[Voltaire]

Sure I can't talk you into yuma Robz? I think we can afford to mislynch me but have you worked through the scenarios where we lynch him instead?

[nkirbit]

Mail-mi, I want you to shoot yuma.

This plan backfires if scumteam is nkirbit/shraeye. I think this is probably like the least likely scenario. It's the one I am most comfortable shunting aside at least.

Vote: Voltaire

If this backfires, I'm sorry guys. I'm really trying my best here. This is very, very difficult.

I like this less than lynching Voltaire and vigging Shraeye, but I will support this plan.

[nkirbit]

-No Way, No Lynch: Players cannot 'Vote: No Lynch'. If, by deadline, a lynch has not been decided on, whoever has the most votes on them will be lynched. In case of a tie, whichever player had a vote cast last on them is lynched.

I think this rule is kind of backwards, haha.  We could end up at a scenario where the votes are 3v3 at the deadline and players are trying to unvote and recast votes as close as possible to the deadline.

[nkirbit]

At the moment:

Nkirbit, Robz, and Yuma are voting Voltaire

Voltaire and mail-mi are voting Nkirbit

Just so we're clear on where we stand... I wasn't 100% sure myself.

[Voltaire]

-No Way, No Lynch: Players cannot 'Vote: No Lynch'. If, by deadline, a lynch has not been decided on, whoever has the most votes on them will be lynched. In case of a tie, whichever player had a vote cast last on them is lynched.

I think this rule is kind of backwards, haha.  We could end up at a scenario where the votes are 3v3 at the deadline and players are trying to unvote and recast votes as close as possible to the deadline.

This is why I pointed out we need to be careful with something like yuma's "parking" a vote (all our votes in general), if Robz then hadn't decided he wanted me as the lynch. There are scenarios where scum!yuma could have been manipulating this fact.

[Robz888]

Well anyway, I'm decided. Someone can hammer if they want.

[mail-mi]

intent to hammer volt

I will shoot Yuma tonight.

Sorry guys I've been busy over the last couple of days.

[Robz888]

intent to hammer volt

I will shoot Yuma tonight.

Sorry guys I've been busy over the last couple of days.

Thanks, go ahead and do it. I can't concentrate on work until I get a flip.

[mail-mi]

vote: Voltaire

[nkirbit]

I really hope arch doesn't show up with a "flip tomorrow!"

[Archetype]

Thread Locked.

Flip tomorrow!

[Archetype]

"What's a Judoon Captain?" shraeye asked.

"I think that's me." mail-mi answered, waving his hands around, "What's an Ood Sigma?"

"That's me." Robz888 replied confidentially.

"Well, awesome." yuma said, "What do you suppose we do?"

Robz888 and mail-mi looked around until they saw Voltaire crouched mysteriously over Jorbles' scattered ashes.

"Whatcha doin'?" mail-mi asked.

Voltaire sprung up all flustered and looked around nervously, "Who? Me? I'm not doing anything!"

Robz888 could see a fistful of ashes clenched in his right hand. "What are you doing with those ashes?"

"Just running some tests."

"What sort of tests?"

"Just tests. Stop worrying about it."

"Bring the rope!" nkirbit demanded.

--

"You're making a big mistake! I was just looking at the body!" Voltaire protested.

"It's too late for that." Robz replied, synching the rope around the victim's neck, "Any last words?"

Voltaire began laughing miniacally, his voice sounding less and less human as it continued. "YOU FOOLS! I'M THE GREAT DALEK CAAN! NO ONE CAN LYNCH ME!"

"I can!" mail-mi replied happily, and pulled the rope tighter, killing Voltaire.

Vote Count 3.FINAL

Voltaire (4) nkirbit, yuma, Robz888, mail-mi
yuma (1) Voltaire

Not Voting (1) shraeye

Voltaire, the Dalek-aligned Dalek Caan has been lynched.

--

Slowly, Voltaire's body changed from human back to its original Dalek form. Suddenly, a panel slid out from the center of Voltaire's body and glowed brightly, illuminating the darkness around him.

Killing Revelation Hologram Protocol Activated A robotic woman voice said, her voice emitting from the panel.

Jorbles was Rose Tyler, the Vanilla Townie.

chairs was Sarah Jane Smith, the Flavor Cop.

System terminated.

And in a blast of smoke and dust, the Dalek exploded.

--


48 hours for night actions. Send them to both sudgy and I.
Night 3 start!

[Archetype]

Day 4 starts on September 8 at 6:00 PM Forum Time. Earlier if night actions get in.

[Archetype]

Episode 4
It was getting down to the wire. With one Dalek, a Cyberman, or both still among the party guests, tensions were high and feelings were low. Will tonight's actions garner any results?


mail-mi quickly sat up and looked wildly, "Is anyone missing?"

"Just Robz888" nkirbit replied, pointing to a pile of ashes beside him.

"How would you it was him, nkiribt?" shraeye accused.

"Obiviously he looked around and saw who wasn't here," yuma remarked, "Why so quick to accuse?"

"Hey!" mail-mi protested, "Don't jump all over shraeye like that! He was just pointing it out!"

The four remaining guests began to collectively scream and yell loudly at one another. Accusations flew across the room and fingers were angrily pointed. No one knew who was in the right and who was in the wrong; only that they had to choose correctly to prevent utter annihilation.

Robz888 was Vaporized . His alignment and power are unknown.

Day 4 start!

Not Voting (4) mail-mi, shraeye, nkirbit, yuma
With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. The day will end on September 15th.

Thread unlocked!

[yuma]

Dear mafia:

I am yuma, the Serial Killer. Here is the deal. We need each other to win. Desperately! Why? Well let's look what we are stacked up against. There is me, the SK. You the mafia. One VT and Robz the roleblocker. I am assuming your night kill didn't go through because Robz roleblocked you. That means he knows that you are mafia. As such if you lynch me, he will just block you again tonight and then lynch you tomorrow. The same goes for me if we lynch you. Robz will just roleblock me and then lynch me tomorrow. Thus we need each other! We need to vote for Robz! Right now: vote: Robz.

I don't know how this is going to play out with tie ruling as robz certainly isn't going to vote for himself and neither will the VT. At that point we just need to trust each other and shoot the VT (this is going to require some trust on each other's part. Because, yes you could shoot me tonight and get the win for yourself. I could do the same. Except that if we both shoot each other that will leave the VT alive and give town the win. So let's just both shoot the VT and share the win as scum! (this is totally acceptable as both mafia and SK have won before on the mafiascum site)

Again, like I said, don't vote for me. If you do Robz will just roleblock you again tonight and you will be the lynch tomorrow and town will get the win.

[yuma]

ah hell... misread that... well robz blocked me in the night...

But it goes the same way.... vote: mail-mi

[Archetype]

Rule Amendment: As it currently stands, the rule of 'last vote makes someone die' doesn't work how I intended it to. So, there is an amendment. The first player to reach enough votes for it to be tied (at this point, 2) will be the one lynched at deadline if three votes isn't reached.

[yuma]

So really mafia... if you are out there... we need to lynch mail-mi.

that way you don't run the risk of getting killed in the night!! Get here fast!

I won't shoot tonight. You just shoot the VT and we can both win!

[yuma]

Because if you lynch me... Mail-mi has a 50% chance of killing you off tonight! 50%!!!

Or you can get a guaranteed win right here, right now! TAke it and vote mail-mi!!!

[mail-mi]

Dear yuma,

I should've known. vote: yuma

Dear mafia,

If you reveal yourself, you will not win with yuma. yuma will kill you and he will win. And if you kill yuma, the VT will be left alive and town will win. Help us lynch yuma.

[mail-mi]

So really mafia... if you are out there... we need to lynch mail-mi.

that way you don't run the risk of getting killed in the night!! Get here fast!

I won't shoot tonight. You just shoot the VT and we can both win!

It will not be a win. It will be Happily Ever After. If niether of you vote, and niether of you NK, you will get HAE'd.

[mail-mi]

Townie, come in here and vote for yuma.

[yuma]

Dear yuma,

I should've known. vote: yuma

Dear mafia,

If you reveal yourself, you will not win with yuma. yuma will kill you and he will win. And if you kill yuma, the VT will be left alive and town will win. Help us lynch yuma.

so mafia is guaranteed to lose here? Doesn't sound like a winning combination here.

I promise. Absolutely solmnely swear that I will not shoot tonight. Just shoot the other VT and win with me.

Mafiascum has had a dual win before, so it can be done here! It is up to you, win with me of 50% chance of losing.

[yuma]

So really mafia... if you are out there... we need to lynch mail-mi.

that way you don't run the risk of getting killed in the night!! Get here fast!

I won't shoot tonight. You just shoot the VT and we can both win!

It will not be a win. It will be Happily Ever After. If niether of you vote, and niether of you NK, you will get HAE'd.

Nope. Mafiascum has had a scum/mafia dual win. It exists. I checked it out.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=22023

[mail-mi]

It is up to you, win with me HEA or 50% chance of winning.

FIFY

[mail-mi]

Archetype, if yuma's plan goes through, will it be a dual win or a HAE?

[yuma]

really my mistake wasn't that bad. I would have had to do the same thing here... there wasn't any way to convince anyone that mail-mi was mafia I think. Just wasn't going to happen.... so I needed to make the same argument.

But really Robz... well played on blocking me. Nicely done. I was going to shoot mail-mi and then try and get mafia to help me lynch the VT for the shared win.

[yuma]

neither shraeye or nkirbit are online... so it will just be a race to see who gets here first...

Want to know a secret mail-mi? I also shot ashersky! Crazy huh? And Eevee. That was probably a mistake. Should have shot Robz. But o well.

[yuma]

It is up to you, win with me HEA or 50% chance of winning.

FIFY

Did you go to my link?

[mail-mi]

It is up to you, win with me HEA or 50% chance of winning.

FIFY

Did you go to my link?

Draw. Not win. Draw.

[yuma]

Archetype, if yuma's plan goes through, will it be a dual win or a HAE?

HAE for my purposes as stat keeper doesn't exist. It just doesn't. If this game goes HAE it will not be included in the stats. This isn't a threat to make arch think one way or the other. But I am just saying that I would rather lose than have it be HAE (that is I would rather there be a rule that says "if 1 mafia and 1 SK are alive at the end with no one else, then town wins").

Obviously I don't like that ending and think that mafia and SK should be able to share the win. It has the precedent of mafiascum doing it and I think the same rationale can be applied here. But HAE. No, HAE is just bad.

[yuma]

It is up to you, win with me HEA or 50% chance of winning.

FIFY

Did you go to my link?

Draw. Not win. Draw.

Ah... I get what you are saying. I thought you meant that HAE is in everyone (town included) gets the HAE. So yes, Mafia and SK would get the HAE Draw and town would get the loss.

But yes, mafia and SK would Draw. Which is leaps and bounds better than a loss and would probably be included as a win in my stats... (I would want to get input from other players outside of this game)... mostly because I don't want to recreate a "draw" category...

[yuma]

And unfortunately I need to get going to a family dinner... showing off our new baby!

Mafia, I have already submitted my night action to arch assuming I am still alive tonight. It is a no-kill. If I live it is your job to shoot the VT. Sure you can shoot me instead... But I'll trust you if you trust me. Just vote mail-mi as soon as you get here.

If you don't it is a 50% chance that you will win and a 50% chance that you will lose. It is all up to mail-mi.

[nkirbit]

So, alive are Shraeye, Mail-Mi, myself, and Yuma.

Yuma is SK
Mail-Mi is Vig (most likely)
I am Town
Shraeye is mafia.. or town and Eevee was mafia.

Either way, I want to lynch Shraeye and have mail-mi shoot Yuma.  Or the other way around.  I don't care between the two, I don't think it makes much of a difference.

[nkirbit]

Vote: Yuma

[nkirbit]

Just so Shraeye doesn't have the option to reveal himself as the mafia, vote mail-mi, and then have me be endgamed.

[nkirbit]

neither shraeye or nkirbit are online... so it will just be a race to see who gets here first...

Want to know a secret mail-mi? I also shot ashersky! Crazy huh? And Eevee. That was probably a mistake. Should have shot Robz. But o well.

Did you think that Ash was mafia, or dangerous town?

[nkirbit]

Anyway, I do need to convince mail-mi that I am town, and not mafia.

Voltaire was pushing heavily, heavily for my lynch, day 2 and day3.  I was pushing heavily for Voltaire's lynch day3.  Does that extreme amount of bussing make sense for scumbuddies?

[mail-mi]

Anyway, I do need to convince mail-mi that I am town, and not mafia.

Yes you do.

Voltaire was pushing heavily, heavily for my lynch, day 2 and day3.  I was pushing heavily for Voltaire's lynch day3.  Does that extreme amount of bussing make sense for scumbuddies?

The D3 one makes sense, but Day 2 not as much.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 4.1

mail-mi (1) yuma
Yuma (1) nkirbit

Not Voting (2) mail-mi, shraeye

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 4 ends on September 15th.

[nkirbit]

Anyway, I do need to convince mail-mi that I am town, and not mafia.

Yes you do.

Voltaire was pushing heavily, heavily for my lynch, day 2 and day3.  I was pushing heavily for Voltaire's lynch day3.  Does that extreme amount of bussing make sense for scumbuddies?

The D3 one makes sense, but Day 2 not as much.

I suppose the D3 makes a little sense, but keep in mind that mafia also have day chat.  Given that, it should be very, very easy to organize a non-mafia lynch.. you only need two other players to support a lynch to do so!  And if two mafia survive into the night, they almost assuredly win, as they're killing two nights in a row.

You should also keep in mind that Robz trusted me.. and it's not one of those cases where you should go, "Well, I know more than Robz did, so I'm trusting my reads!"  Robz knew everything you did, and concluded that I was town.  (although he also concluded that Shraeye was town.. so I'm not sure how helpful that actually is, haha).

Shraeye and Voltaire, together, attacked one thing I had done yesterday:  made a "slip" about the knowledge I supposedly knew about Eevee and Jorble's alignment.  They decided, together, to attack that heavily, and luckily, they didn't make it through.

A 2 man scum team knew that they just had to survive the day, and they were almost assuredly going to win.  Shraeye and Voltaire came out with a co-ordinated assault on me, trying to get me mislynched.

If Voltaire and I were scumbuddies, we planned in the night (and through the day) to come out.. and attack each other all day?  With a SK still out there?  And even when we learned that the roleblocker and vig were still alive, we kept fighting each other?  Does that make any sense?

[mail-mi]

Well I was on Yuma, but I should unvote. Shraeye, convince me you're town. Nkirbit is doing a good job.

[nkirbit]

Well I was on Yuma, but I should unvote. Shraeye, convince me you're town. Nkirbit is doing a good job.

NO.  DOn't unvote.  There's no reason to do so.  REVOTE

[nkirbit]

Shraeye can come in and vote Mail-mi and you get lynched and Yuma wins!!

[mail-mi]

Well I was on Yuma, but I should unvote. Shraeye, convince me you're town. Nkirbit is doing a good job.

NO.  DOn't unvote.  There's no reason to do so.  REVOTE

Oh yeah... vote: yuma

[nkirbit]

well; I think we need to lynch one of nkirbit/yuma and have Robz roleblock the other one.  This is because Robz already roleblocked each of them once, so whether they are SK or if they are mafia with partner dead, he is sure to stop a kill.

If they flip town then it's likely that the other and Voltaire are both scum.  In this case, one of Eevee/Jorbles is likely to be the mafioso's partner and the other is SK.  Robz's roleblock on the living member of yuma/nkirbit is sure to stop a kill then.

If they flip mafia, then the other is either mafia-partner, or SK who already lost RB-protection.  If they flip SK is the one case that is more complicated, but then we'll learn whether there is 1 or 2 mafias left for sure.  So that's actually a really nice case.

This is certainly a fishy plan now that we know Voltaire is mafia.

[nkirbit]

I don't like the shooting Yuma plan.  I would be much much happier shooting Voltaire.

And then we have this post.

If Voltaire and I are the scumteam, do I really make this post?  I really, really thought I was the lynch at this point.  Robz himself said he was ready to hammer.  If I'm scum, and Voltaire is my partner, do you think I say, "Hey!  Don't shoot the guy who's not my partner!  Shoot my partner instead!"

It could be WIFOM, but Robz was directing your kill at this point.  You didn't have the freedom to change your action after Robz had told you what to submit (Well, you did, but it would have been a very, very bad idea to do so).  If I'm really mafia, are my potential last words really, "Shoot my partner!  Please!!!" when we have a day-directed Vig?

[Archetype]

Rule Amendment: As it currently stands, the rule of 'last vote makes someone die' doesn't work how I intended it to. So, there is an amendment. The first player to reach enough votes for it to be tied (at this point, 2) will be the one lynched at deadline if three votes isn't reached.

Final Rule Amendment: This rule and it's previous incarnation are both cut. Voting No Lynch is now an option and if a lynch isn't reached by deadline it will default to that.

[mail-mi]

Rule Amendment: As it currently stands, the rule of 'last vote makes someone die' doesn't work how I intended it to. So, there is an amendment. The first player to reach enough votes for it to be tied (at this point, 2) will be the one lynched at deadline if three votes isn't reached.

Final Rule Amendment: This rule and it's previous incarnation are both cut. Voting No Lynch is now an option and if a lynch isn't reached by deadline it will default to that.

What? No. The game is riding on this rule. Change it back.

[nkirbit]

Wow.  That's actually really bad for us:

The Yuma lynch is still a good plan, but we can no longer push it through without mafia help.

The scum lynch is still a good plan, but we can't push it through without Yuma's help.

The nkirbit lynch is hilarious.  3 killers, 1 night, no bulletproof... who emerges victorious?  Funny, but not what we want.

The mail-mi lynch... hm.  We go into night with Town, Scum, and SK alive.  Both of the Scum and SK have strong reasons to shoot each other, because it's just strictly better than shooting me.  If they were to shoot me, instead shoot the other team!  If they were shooting you, it doesn't matter, but if they weren't, you win!

And what will probably happen:  No-lynch.  We go into night with VT, Vig, SK, and Scum... no one's shooting the VT, that's for sure.  Who will win?  It's so damn random.

Very very unhappy about the rules switching mid day-4, btw.  Not ideal.

[nkirbit]

I guess I was happy enough when it switched in my favor, haha.

[nkirbit]

Shraeye will have to out himself as scum by not voting Yuma, at least.

I'm not sure that helps us out all that much.

[nkirbit]

This is going to be a silly ending!

[nkirbit]

A SK/Scum ending should clearly be a loss for everyone, right?  Go into day, no lynch since no lynch can happen.  At night, they shoot each other, boom, everyone's dead, no one wins.

Definitely, definitely not a win for all parties involved.  Not in the least bit, I would be very very very very very opposed to such a ruling.

[nkirbit]

Also, boo to Yuma and Shraeye/Voltaire for never shooting at each other.  Boooo!

[Archetype]

Archetype, if yuma's plan goes through, will it be a dual win or a HAE?

If a SK with 1-shot BP and Mafia live to the end, SK wins. If a SK with no 1-shot Bulletproof and Mafia live to the end, Town wins as per it's win con.

[nkirbit]

Interesting.

Unvote for the time being.

[nkirbit]

Or wait, Vote: Yuma.  Totally fine with Yuma getting hammered haha.

[yuma]

Archetype, if yuma's plan goes through, will it be a dual win or a HAE?

If a SK with 1-shot BP and Mafia live to the end, SK wins. If a SK with no 1-shot Bulletproof and Mafia live to the end, Town wins as per it's win con.

What?

You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Well then I guess I was dead no matter what.... vote: yuma

[yuma]

epic waste of a game... major, major yuck

[yuma]

espcially since this is what it says in the mafiascum page

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated and there is at least one town-aligned player alive

[yuma]

espcially since this is what it says in the mafiascum page

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated and there is at least one town-aligned player alive

which is what I have been referring to as i have had it open all game, but I guess I should have checked the OP.

[yuma]

neither shraeye or nkirbit are online... so it will just be a race to see who gets here first...

Want to know a secret mail-mi? I also shot ashersky! Crazy huh? And Eevee. That was probably a mistake. Should have shot Robz. But o well.

Did you think that Ash was mafia, or dangerous town?

I thought he had a chance of being mafia, but it was low. Nor was I really worried about his case on me. Rather I felt that I was making myself look scummier by continuing my argument with him. It needed to end as it was brining too much attention to the two of us.

But really my biggest focus was that I wanted to avoid duplicating kills with mafia... which is ironic as mail-mi also targeted him. Ugh. Same goes with my eevee kill. I didn't think you guys would be killing him.

And as for not shooting nkirbit/voltaire/shraeye. The first two were good lynch candidates. shraeye I thought would have been killed by the other faction. I really don't know if that means he is mafia or not....

[mail-mi]

Archetype, if yuma's plan goes through, will it be a dual win or a HAE?

If a SK with 1-shot BP and Mafia live to the end, SK wins. If a SK with no 1-shot Bulletproof and Mafia live to the end, Town wins as per it's win con.

What?

You win when all threats to the Universe have been eliminated, or nothing can prevent that from occurring.

Well then I guess I was dead no matter what.... vote: yuma

WHOA yuma self vote. Put it in the record books, people!

[yuma]

meh... i have had two self votes already... both as mafia. MIII and blitz1

[nkirbit]

I agree that the ending of this game is pretty dumb.

I was actually considering advocating a mail-mi lynch, haha.  Go into night with a VT and two scumteams... the scum have to shoot at each other, right?  I don't know if I would have actually argued for it, but I was thinking about it.

It's a little bit of a similar situation to the end of the BM game where Xeiron won.. he no-lynched to put it into night, knowing the two others had to shoot each other, and they did!

[yuma]

I see no reason to prolong the inevitable.

So good luck to both town and mafia. Hope you all end up dying....

[yuma]

I just extremely disagree with an ending that has mafia and SK alive and town wins... I mean it is better than the HAE where everyone wins, but it just doesnt' make sense... Town is dead.

I guess flavor wise if they are protecting the universe then sure... but TOWN IS DEAD!!!

[nkirbit]

I kind of agree with you.

Still surprised you self-hammered though.  Even if we no lynch, you still have a chance (not much of one, but it's there.  Certainly a larger chance than town had at one point in LOTR2).

[mail-mi]

I just extremely disagree with an ending that has mafia and SK alive and town wins... I mean it is better than the HAE where everyone wins, but it just doesnt' make sense... Town is dead.

I guess flavor wise if they are protecting the universe then sure... but TOWN IS DEAD!!!

I am sure that there will be tons of discussion of this after game end.

[nkirbit]

Definitely, definitely not a win for all parties involved.  Not in the least bit, I would be very very very very very opposed to such a ruling.

I actually don't at all care about this.. but one ruling would have favored me here!

[yuma]

add in the fact that I have been talking about this the entire time to myself in my speccy. I guess I should have consulted arch, but I never would have thought that would be the ruling. It just isn't sound to me at all. But, then again, I am extremely biased, as I have fretted over this over the last two days to no avail trying to figure out the ideal way to handle today all to realize that I was doomed no matter what.

[yuma]

I kind of agree with you.

Still surprised you self-hammered though.  Even if we no lynch, you still have a chance (not much of one, but it's there.  Certainly a larger chance than town had at one point in LOTR2).

I see no chance.

1. you lynch me.
2. you lynch VT and I get killed by mafia or vig (maybe they shoot each other... but extremely unlikely as I will also be shooting as well)
3. you lynch vig and I get killed by mafia
4. you lynch mafia and I get killed by vig.

Everyone of those situations requires someone else to kill me to accomplish their win condition. So I am dead. I was dead at the start of today. I should have just given up during the night instead of pouring over the possibilities trying to find one that would work. That is what is really getting me. If I had a chance... I wouldn't have minded, but to be doomed from the start and put in all that work.... Maybe I am glad for a mafia break at this point...

[nkirbit]

I do agree that you probably weren't winning anyway.

I just don't think there's a good way to handle SK/Mafia being the only two alive when the SK's bulletproof is gone.  No matter what the ruling is, someone's going to be dissatisfied (and both SK and Mafia winning.. that just doesn't make sense.. would they split a win?)

I think my ruling would be there are no winners and everyone loses.. they shoot each other, everyone's dead.

[nkirbit]

Yeah, I guess so.  There's no way Shraeye's ever not shooting you.

I guess you could both come out, say you're no lynching, say "Yuma is shooting mail-mi, Shraeye is shooting Nkirbit", and see if mail-mi wants to kingmake.  That's probably what I would have done.

[yuma]

I do agree that you probably weren't winning anyway.

I just don't think there's a good way to handle SK/Mafia being the only two alive when the SK's bulletproof is gone.  No matter what the ruling is, someone's going to be dissatisfied (and both SK and Mafia winning.. that just doesn't make sense.. would they split a win?)

I think my ruling would be there are no winners and everyone loses.. they shoot each other, everyone's dead.

mafiascum had it as a draw which in my mind i see as basically a win but maybe that is the soccer fan in me speaking

[nkirbit]

Yeah, I guess so.  There's no way Shraeye's ever not shooting you.

I guess you could both come out, say you're no lynching, say "Yuma is shooting mail-mi, Shraeye is shooting Nkirbit", and see if mail-mi wants to kingmake.  That's probably what I would have done.

But even then, you both have incentives to shift your kill to each other.. so you'd probably just end up dead overnight anyway.

[yuma]

and sorry to whomever mafia is. i did't think i had a choice.

[nkirbit]

I do agree that you probably weren't winning anyway.

I just don't think there's a good way to handle SK/Mafia being the only two alive when the SK's bulletproof is gone.  No matter what the ruling is, someone's going to be dissatisfied (and both SK and Mafia winning.. that just doesn't make sense.. would they split a win?)

I think my ruling would be there are no winners and everyone loses.. they shoot each other, everyone's dead.

mafiascum had it as a draw which in my mind i see as basically a win but maybe that is the soccer fan in me speaking

Haha, really?  The soccer fan in me takes a draw as a loss!  Two points dropped!

My friend's an everton fan, I'm sure he feels quite strongly that draws are losses haha!

[yuma]

a tie on the road down a man? i see that as a win...

[nkirbit]

On a more positive note, now that this game is almost done I get to sign up for Modern Community!  Hooray! 

[yuma]

On a more positive note, now that this game is almost done I get to sign up for Modern Community!  Hooray!

On another positive note, this has been a really fun game. I enjoyed it thoroughly and I think arch has done a great job. It certainly isn't his fault that I didn't pay more attention to the setup.

I still think that his ruling isn't the best, but when you are a mod you get to make those sort of decisions and it is my fault for not realizing it earlier, or ever before signing up and brining it up for discussion then. So while I am certainly complaining here, but complaints are in no way directed against arch, but are more at myself for not playing as well as I would have liked...

[yuma]

So did I have any chance at all?

If I had come out of this game w/o a plan and w/o revealing myself as the SK did I have a chance?

I don't think I did. The fact that I was alive after mail-mi's attempted kill pinpoints me as SK.

I could have tried to convince you all that mail-mi was actually the SK or mafia and had set me up. But who would have even considered that? The chances of that were soooo low! I thought I had a much better chance of getting someone else to team up with me to kill mail-mi and then achieving the shared win (draw). Although to be honest, if I were mafia I would have pretended to do that and then shot the SK in the night (I knew that mafia might do this, but I felt it was worth the risk) to win as there would be 1 mafia left and 1 VT.

But really this game was over from the moment that Robz said, "mail-mi shoot yuma."

actually it was over from the moment that I suggested a mass claim. Who would have thought that both of the PRs remained alive after all of that! Man!

Although if nkirbit is town I wonder what would have happened had he been lynched instead.

SK, Vig, RB, 2 Mafia. I would have had to have targeted a mafia... Other than that, I don't know...

[yuma]

somebody provide the flip and then give this man a speccy!!!

[nkirbit]

Robz absolutely killed it day3.

[nkirbit]

I'm headed to sleep... I expect the thread will be locked by the next time I see it.

Mail-Mi, Shraeye will probably come on and try and convince you that he's town, and I'm scum.  Blah blah he pointed out a connection between Voltaire and I day 1 blah blah.  Don't buy any of it.

Keep in mind what happened day2 and day3.  Voltaire pushed HARD for my lynch.  Day3, Voltaire and Shraeye worked together to try and get me mislynched, because they were in terrific shape if they survived into the night.

Voltaire and Shraeye make perfect sense as a scumteam:  They never really threw any major suspicion each other's way, they worked together day3 (as scum with a day chat would), they stayed constant on the lynching Nkirbit plan because it looked like that's what was going to get through.

Voltaire and I as scumpartners just doesn't make any sense.  When it looked almost certain that I was getting lynched, my dying words were, "If you lynch me, please Vig Voltaire".  Does that make any sense for me to say knowing that Voltaire is my partner, and our Vig target needs to be announced before we see the flip?  Do I really risk losing the game like that?

If Voltaire and I are partners, do we really spend day3, a day in which we only need to convince two other players of a non-us lynch, yelling at each other?  Especially when we have a daychat and can easily work together to force through lynches?

I don't think we would.  Shraeye's actions are much more consistent with him being Voltaire's partner than mine are.  Don't let him convince you otherwise.

[nkirbit]

About Shraeye's "connection"... which do you think is more likely?  A town player picking out the correct scumteam very early day 1, or a scum member planting the seeds of a mislynch for when their partner turns up dead later in the game.  I would think it's the second, by a lot.

[Archetype]

Thread Locked.

"Attention everyone!" yuma shouted, "I am the Cyberman Sentry! I feel I am not alone in this attack upon the Doctor. If any Daleks wish to team up with me to combat this Town, come out with it."

"Get him!" Mail-mi commanded.

nkirbit and mail-mi ran towards yuma, while shraeye grabbed a rope. They pushed his cold, hard body against one of the walls and began to tie him up.

"Why in the world would you admit to that?" nkirbit asked.

"If the Daleks and I team up, we can rule the galaxy together!"

"...that's not how it works." shraeye thought.

"Sorry to catch you on a technicality, but LET'S LYNCH YA!" mail-mi exclaimed.

"No. I'm not giving you the satisfaction." yuma said.

He pulled the blaster from his pocket and pointed the muzzle to his metallic head. He looked down the barrel of the gun, his once lifeless eyes now filled with terror, and pulled the trigger.

Vote Count 4.FINAL

yuma (3) nkirbit, mail-mi, yuma

Not Voting (1) shraeye[/b][/color]

yuma, the Cyberman-aligned Cyberman Sentry has been lynched. 

A loud whirr could be heard and suddenly everyone turned to see the Cyberman's eyes light up.
"
Eevee was Martha Jones, the Vanilla Townie.

Ashersky was Amy Pond, the Vanilla Townie."

Night 4 start!
You have 48 hours to get all night actions in to both sudgy and I.[/b]

[Archetype]

Episode 5
With only three people left, right and wrong became a matter of opinion. Lines would be drawn through the night that will decide the fate of the houseguests.

mail-mi woke up from his slumber and sprung to his feet. This was his chance! He slowly pulled a blaster from his pocket and pointed it to shraeye's temple. No one could stop him now!

[Archetype]

Shraeye whirled around just in time! He shoved mail-mi's hand aside and stood up on his feet. His skin began to tore and his face stretched out. Slowly, Dalek Sec emerged from the shriveled human body he masqueraded as. The blaster on his body pointed towards mail-mi and with a screeching voice he screamed,

"EXTERMINATE!"

"FOR THE DOCTOR!"

And the two parties both fired their guns, vaporizing each other to ashes.

mail-mi the Universe-aligned Judoon Captain has been vaporized
shraeye the Dalek-aligned Dalek Sec has been vaporized.

--

nkiribt awoke that morning to see he was the only one left. He looked around until he saw two piles of ashes right beside each other. Suddenly, a light began to glow directly above one of the ash(ersky) piles. The light was so bright that nkirbit had to shield his eyes from its brilliance.

Now that The Doctor was out of the Dalek's system, he could finally regenerate.

He slowly rose from the ashes of a deceased race, sonic screwdriver in hand wearing a dark trench coat. He turned to see nkirbit standing there, still covering his eyes. The Doctor let him take his time, and began to survey the room to see what was once a beautiful foyer turned into a wooden disaster. Once the brightness had decreased a bit, nkirbit removed his hand from his eyes.

"Now tell me, Captain Jack Harkness" The Doctor began, "What kind of trouble did you get into this time?"

Jack Harkness opened his mouth to speak; he had a long story to tell.

[Archetype]

THE UNIVERSE WINS!

[Robz888]

YAY!!!!!!!!!

[Robz888]

OMG I AM SO HAPPY

[Voltaire]

Good job town! Not counterclaiming turned out to be our huge flaw. Crazy fun first game as scum. Couldn't believe I lasted as long as I did!

[mail-mi]

Woot woot woot!

[Eevee]

I don't think I've ever won with this few posts!

[Robz888]

I think this is the first time I contributed to a town win since... well, Mafia I.

[Archetype]

Daleks:
Shraeye (Dalek Sec) [Jackie Tyler]
Voltaire (Dalek Caan) [River Song]

Cyberman:
Yuma (Cyberman Sentry) [Rory Williams]

Universe:
Chairs (Sarah Jane Smith)
Robz888 (Ood Sigma)
mail-mi (Judoon Captain)
ashersky (Amy Pond)
Jorbles (Rose Tyler)
Eevee (Martha Jones)
liopoil (Mickey Smith)
Voltgloss (Donna Noble)
nkirbit (Jack Harkness)

Quicktopics:

Dalek QT: http://quicktopic.com/50/H/CdSKpbgTAdg
Cyberman QT: http://quicktopic.com/50/H/VEaMHfy5rPVw
Speccy QT: http://quicktopic.com/50/H/KECffs8h6DMNc
Mod QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/VVMNPUpKkFiL

[Voltgloss]

Town could never have won without <i>my</i> indisputable help. 

[Archetype]

MVP: Robz888 for his outstanding work leading the Town on Day 3 and really pulling them out of the gutter. I don't know if they would have made it without his help.

Nod towards all scum and nkiribt. Scum really played well this game, and I honestly thought the Daleks would end up winning. All three of them got unlucky with not hitting a single PR besides the Cop. I thought some of the nightkills were weird choices, but their interaction with the Town and really blending in worked out. nkirbit for being really towny the last day and convincing mail-mi to shoot shraeye. You weren't too active earlier in the game, but you really were that last day.

[Voltgloss]

MVP: Robz888

Absolutely!

[Robz888]

Thank you. This is a very happy day for me. Seriously, this is a major morale booster.

Was a great game! Thanks Archetype!

[ashersky]

Cool, town win!  Great job guys, fun times Arch.

See, I was town!

[Robz888]

Really well done selling your towniness on the final day, nkirbit. That was so essential. Good job.

[nkirbit]

I feel bad for shraeye, who never got a chance to even post and make a case day 4. That must have been very frustrating.

Thanks arch!

[mail-mi]

Cool, town win!  Great job guys, fun times Arch.

See, I was town!

I killed you because you were either a) scum or b) annoying town. And yes, robz for MVP.

[ashersky]

Cool, town win!  Great job guys, fun times Arch.

See, I was town!

I killed you because you were either a) scum or b) annoying town. And yes, robz for MVP.

If we killed annoying town every time, I'd never get to play.

[nkirbit]

Yeah, Robz for MVP for an awesome day3/night3.. we really turned it around that day, and absolutely couldn't have done so without him.

[ashersky]

Yeah, Robz for MVP for an awesome day3/night3.. we really turned it around that day, and absolutely couldn't have done so without him.

I'm pretty sure none of this was possible without my Amy Pond claim on D1.

[nkirbit]

Yeah, Robz for MVP for an awesome day3/night3.. we really turned it around that day, and absolutely couldn't have done so without him.

I'm pretty sure none of this was possible without my Amy Pond claim on D1.

I wonder what would have happened had we mass-claimed day one.

[nkirbit]

Claimed PR/VT.. not claimed specific PRs.

[Voltaire]

Robz MVP easily.

This game was really really fun.

Did anyone see my voting plan in the mafia thread? I am so sad mail-mi showed up and I didn't get to use it. 

[liopoil]

Good job mail-mi making the right call at the end!

I was very surprised that shraeye was not lynched right away on D3. He hammered me without a chance to claim, or respond to the most recent posts. Or for people to agree that the day was ready to end. It was a quickhammer, lynch all quickhammerers! Especially because I SPECIFICALLY asked not to be hammered without a chance to claim. Had it been on someone else I would have advocated shraeye's lynch solely based on the hammer.

I feel like Yuma had it rough from the start. Very rough. Much much lower chance of winning than mafia or town.

[yuma]

Thank you. This is a very happy day for me. Seriously, this is a major morale booster.

Well at least something good came from this game... (aside from a general good time playing with friends)

[yuma]

I feel like Yuma had it rough from the start. Very rough. Much much lower chance of winning than mafia or town.

I dont' think the SK is ever supposed to have equal chances of winning. It isn't intended to be 33% *3. Rather like 40% *2 and 20%... Or something like that.

[yuma]

Good job mail-mi making the right call at the end!

I was very surprised that shraeye was not lynched right away on D3. He hammered me without a chance to claim, or respond to the most recent posts. Or for people to agree that the day was ready to end. It was a quickhammer, lynch all quickhammerers! Especially because I SPECIFICALLY asked not to be hammered without a chance to claim. Had it been on someone else I would have advocated shraeye's lynch solely based on the hammer.

I actually didn't mind it at all. Because at that point I was pretty sure you were in fact mafia... Not 100%. But any PR claim from you would not have changed my mind at all, (nor would have a VT claim). So if it wasn't going to change my mind then there was a chance of a counter claim being /outed and killed in the night... and while I would want that as a SK, I would have hated it as town. I figured shraeye had this same line of thought and really wasn't suspicious of him for it at all.

[Galzria]

Robz for MVP? I haven't followed this game too closely, but that must mean he was scum. "Robz" "MVP" and "Town" don't fit together in a sentence.


































 

[Robz888]

Hey, I got a Town MVP in a Blitz game, once!

But seriously, this is the first time I have contributed positively toward a town win in a regular game since Mafia I.

[nkirbit]

I was more convinced of the Lio lynch the vast majority of lynches I've been involved in.. I really did expect you to flip scum, and was surprised when you didn't.

[Robz888]

So, my reads were a lot better this game than normal. What did I do right?

For one thing, I got lucky. Certainly that's a factor, my reads just aren't that good.

But I think a really interesting thing is I didn't rely too much on rereading and case building. I did go back over previous stuff, but not nearly to the extent that I did in Mafia (the second pick your posion one where Galz, mail-mi, and mcmc won as scum where I had this mammoth, incorrect reread based case).

Rather, I mostly relied on POE deduction and instinct. And truly, I was lucky to pick up on yuma being scummy. But I really nailed Voltaire--Voltaire just HAD to be scum, based on who was left and who had voted for who and wanted to lynch who.

Another big thing is--okay, the mafia team was the two people who received the least amount of suspicion and scrutiny the first two days. This seems to happen a lot. And it's actually bad for scum--especially now that I'm convinced this is a scum trait--because then they look untested, I think, when it's getting down to it, like "Wait a minute, why did they get a pass? How did they manipulate their way into that cushy place?" I've come to think that if you are scum, you WANT a major wagon against you on Day 1.

[Twistedarcher]

So, my reads were a lot better this game than normal. What did I do right?

For one thing, I got lucky. Certainly that's a factor, my reads just aren't that good.

But I think a really interesting thing is I didn't rely too much on rereading and case building. I did go back over previous stuff, but not nearly to the extent that I did in Mafia (the second pick your posion one where Galz, mail-mi, and mcmc won as scum where I had this mammoth, incorrect reread based case).

Rather, I mostly relied on POE deduction and instinct. And truly, I was lucky to pick up on yuma being scummy. But I really nailed Voltaire--Voltaire just HAD to be scum, based on who was left and who had voted for who and wanted to lynch who.

Another big thing is--okay, the mafia team was the two people who received the least amount of suspicion and scrutiny the first two days. This seems to happen a lot. And it's actually bad for scum--especially now that I'm convinced this is a scum trait--because then they look untested, I think, when it's getting down to it, like "Wait a minute, why did they get a pass? How did they manipulate their way into that cushy place?" I've come to think that if you are scum, you WANT a major wagon against you on Day 1.

You also had a 75% chance of hitting scum d3! Nkirbit, incidentally, had 100% assuming he believed the claims.

[liopoil]

Good job mail-mi making the right call at the end!

I was very surprised that shraeye was not lynched right away on D3. He hammered me without a chance to claim, or respond to the most recent posts. Or for people to agree that the day was ready to end. It was a quickhammer, lynch all quickhammerers! Especially because I SPECIFICALLY asked not to be hammered without a chance to claim. Had it been on someone else I would have advocated shraeye's lynch solely based on the hammer.

I actually didn't mind it at all. Because at that point I was pretty sure you were in fact mafia... Not 100%. But any PR claim from you would not have changed my mind at all, (nor would have a VT claim). So if it wasn't going to change my mind then there was a chance of a counter claim being /outed and killed in the night... and while I would want that as a SK, I would have hated it as town. I figured shraeye had this same line of thought and really wasn't suspicious of him for it at all.

well, you should have been, because he was mafia.

[nkirbit]

Man, it would have been genius of Shraeye to notice Voltgloss's slip, keep it in his back pocket, start building a case against Voltaire, and if it took off redirect to Voltgloss.. I think that could have gone well.

[yuma]

Good job mail-mi making the right call at the end!

I was very surprised that shraeye was not lynched right away on D3. He hammered me without a chance to claim, or respond to the most recent posts. Or for people to agree that the day was ready to end. It was a quickhammer, lynch all quickhammerers! Especially because I SPECIFICALLY asked not to be hammered without a chance to claim. Had it been on someone else I would have advocated shraeye's lynch solely based on the hammer.

I actually didn't mind it at all. Because at that point I was pretty sure you were in fact mafia... Not 100%. But any PR claim from you would not have changed my mind at all, (nor would have a VT claim). So if it wasn't going to change my mind then there was a chance of a counter claim being /outed and killed in the night... and while I would want that as a SK, I would have hated it as town. I figured shraeye had this same line of thought and really wasn't suspicious of him for it at all.

well, you should have been, because he was mafia.

well mostly I just don't think that hammering w/o waiting for a claim is all that scummy. I think it is generally pretty bad for town, so a bad move (I think this instance might have been an exception as town wouldn't want scum to force a counter claim and any claim wouldn't necessarily be believable because of the lack of info...), but not necessarily scummy. For instance I did it in LoR Day1 because we had too many claims. Ash did it as town in CLUE.... spiritbears did it in B2B. It isn't a for sure scum tell the way you are making it out to be.

[liopoil]

for shraeye it is. He would not do something like that as town I think. And I did somewhat believe that what SB did in B2B was scummy, and as surprised nobody bought it at all. I didn't follow LotR D1. In clue, well, that's ashersky.

[nkirbit]

SB in B2B was a little bit different.  He hammered me despite thinking I was town.  I had explicitly stated I wasn't claiming.... that's very different from what Shraeye did.

As for whether it's something town!Shraeye wouldn't do, I can't say for sure, Lio.  Maybe you're right that we should have looked at him harder for that specifically.

[yuma]

for shraeye it is. He would not do something like that as town I think. And I did somewhat believe that what SB did in B2B was scummy, and as surprised nobody bought it at all. I didn't follow LotR D1. In clue, well, that's ashersky.

I guess is what I am saying is that in the games above, everyone had a reason for hammering that made sense as to them town. Spiritbears... not as much, but he felt he had a reason. My interpretation of shraeye was that he also had a reason as town for doing what he did. I thought of a reason myself--in fact I had thought about suggesting that someone hammer you before you claimed because of this--and figured that he was on the same page as me.

In an average game, shraeye probably isn't going to hammer w/o giving someone a chance to claim. But in a game where claims may or may not be counterclaimed because of the hidden knowledge mechanism, I don't see it as out of the realm that he would. In fact I found him somewhat townier for it. Scum rarely wants to put themselves in that sort of a position.

[shraeye]

for shraeye it is. He would not do something like that as town I think. And I did somewhat believe that what SB did in B2B was scummy, and as surprised nobody bought it at all. I didn't follow LotR D1. In clue, well, that's ashersky.

I guess is what I am saying is that in the games above, everyone had a reason for hammering that made sense as to them town. Spiritbears... not as much, but he felt he had a reason. My interpretation of shraeye was that he also had a reason as town for doing what he did. I thought of a reason myself--in fact I had thought about suggesting that someone hammer you before you claimed because of this--and figured that he was on the same page as me.

In an average game, shraeye probably isn't going to hammer w/o giving someone a chance to claim. But in a game where claims may or may not be counterclaimed because of the hidden knowledge mechanism, I don't see it as out of the realm that he would. In fact I found him somewhat townier for it. Scum rarely wants to put themselves in that sort of a position.

This is the angle I took.  all-alignmentshraeye was convinced of your scumminess, and knew that any claim you made wouldn't change my position.  So I hammered before any claim you made could change another persons mind.  Townshraeye does the same thing.

[mail-mi]

Well, my theory still stands that I have to live to the end for town to win. Don't lynch me, people!

[Jorbles]

Ohhhhh they killed me because they thought I was the Roleblocker. It all makes sense to me now. Glad I somehow baited out that kill even if I'm not sure how I did it.

[Jorbles]

Actually now that I think about it there's a good chance I'd try to play Roleblocker a little absently to try and avoid the NK. Good to know that it might in fact draw the NK.

[Jorbles]

Ohhh, I made a PR "slip". We should probably stop reading so much into slips.

[Voltaire]

Ohhh, I made a PR "slip". We should probably stop reading so much into slips.

Well, Eevee made one that showed me he was NOT the RB. And I did want to kill Robz more, but shraeye has a much better track record as scum so I happily deferred to his judgement and let myself get talked into it.

Actually where did we think you made a "slip"? We never thought you made a slip.

[Jorbles]

Ohhh, I made a PR "slip". We should probably stop reading so much into slips.

Well, Eevee made one that showed me he was NOT the RB. And I did want to kill Robz more, but shraeye has a much better track record as scum so I happily deferred to his judgement and let myself get talked into it.

Actually where did we think you made a "slip"? We never thought you made a slip.

I can't remember where it was in there, but I was asking if the RB should claim early d2 and that made you guys suspect me.

I'm actually kinda pleased with my reads this game. I suspected shraeye, yuma, and Robz at the point when I died. I may have thought yuma was mafia and shraeye was the SK, but if we'd been able to lynch them it would have still been good for town.

[mail-mi]

Also, shraeye, congrats on first loss as mafia!

[Voltaire]

Ohhh, I made a PR "slip". We should probably stop reading so much into slips.

Well, Eevee made one that showed me he was NOT the RB. And I did want to kill Robz more, but shraeye has a much better track record as scum so I happily deferred to his judgement and let myself get talked into it.

Actually where did we think you made a "slip"? We never thought you made a slip.

I can't remember where it was in there, but I was asking if the RB should claim early d2 and that made you guys suspect me.

And I would call that a read, not a slip, that we had on you. Of course it turned out to be wrong, but most do!

[Jorbles]

Fair enough, I just want to say I thought you played really well Voltaire. I didn't really suspect you until well after I was dead, and I never thought you were mafia.

[Voltaire]

Fair enough, I just want to say I thought you played really well Voltaire. I didn't really suspect you until well after I was dead, and I never thought you were mafia.

No problem. There's just been a lot of discussion about "slips" lately and I think sometimes the word gets defined a bit too loosely for my tastes, that's all.

[nkirbit]

Did you and shraeye think I was the SK based on my "slip", Voltaire?

[ashersky]

Fair enough, I just want to say I thought you played really well Voltaire. I didn't really suspect you until well after I was dead, and I never thought you were mafia.

No problem. There's just been a lot of discussion about "slips" lately and I think sometimes the word gets defined a bit too loosely for my tastes, that's all.

You used the word "discussion" which has the letters s-c-u in it, which is almost the word scum...SCUMSLIP!!!!

[Voltaire]

Fair enough, I just want to say I thought you played really well Voltaire. I didn't really suspect you until well after I was dead, and I never thought you were mafia.

No problem. There's just been a lot of discussion about "slips" lately and I think sometimes the word gets defined a bit too loosely for my tastes, that's all.

You used the word "discussion" which has the letters s-c-u in it, which is almost the word scum...SCUMSLIP!!!!

Crap. You got me. vote: Voltaire

Did you and shraeye think I was the SK based on my "slip", Voltaire?

Did you make a "slip"? We both just thought you were super-scummy, and since there was another scum in the game, we wanted you lynched.

[shraeye]

Also, shraeye, congrats on first loss as mafia!

boooooooo, i wanna know what went through your mind before shooting me over nkirbit.  Was there doubt?  How could I have increased that doubt, if yuma had given me the chance to post at all (also, boooo yuma)

[shraeye]

have the QTs been released yet?  You should do that Archetype!  I could send mine out, and yuma his...but it's nice to have them in one place.

[Robz888]

have the QTs been released yet?  You should do that Archetype!  I could send mine out, and yuma his...but it's nice to have them in one place.

They were released right after the post declaring winners.

[mail-mi]

Also, shraeye, congrats on first loss as mafia!

boooooooo, i wanna know what went through your mind before shooting me over nkirbit.  Was there doubt?  How could I have increased that doubt, if yuma had given me the chance to post at all (also, boooo yuma)

He pointed out the bussing (if him and volt were scum) that volt was doing to him D2 and to each other D3, and the fact that you were the one that volt least mentioned.

[ashersky]

Also, shraeye, congrats on first loss as mafia!

boooooooo, i wanna know what went through your mind before shooting me over nkirbit.  Was there doubt?  How could I have increased that doubt, if yuma had given me the chance to post at all (also, boooo yuma)

Technically, shraeye's first loss as mafia was LOTR2, right?

[Robz888]

Also, shraeye, congrats on first loss as mafia!

boooooooo, i wanna know what went through your mind before shooting me over nkirbit.  Was there doubt?  How could I have increased that doubt, if yuma had given me the chance to post at all (also, boooo yuma)

Technically, shraeye's first loss as mafia was LOTR2, right?

I think he meant first loss on the yuma stats, which don't count RMM.

[yuma]

if yuma had given me the chance to post at all (also, boooo yuma)

yeah.... sorry about that. It wasn't done spitefully. I didn't think how it would affect you. I was a little absorbed in a woe is me pity-party. I do feel bad about it.

[nkirbit]

I do wonder how it would have turned out.  I think I did have a better case, but Shraeye is much more eloquent than I am so there's a good chance he would have been able to convince mail-mi.