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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 161819 times)

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #800 on: November 21, 2012, 01:14:41 pm »

Lets play a game:

@ everyone in this list.
{joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Provide your top 2 scum reads and the 1 person you would bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people.


Nah - knock yourself our Volt.
Do you want people to answer in a particular order?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #801 on: November 21, 2012, 01:14:57 pm »

Lets play a game:

@ everyone in this list.
{joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Provide your top 2 scum reads and the 1 person you would bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people.



Do you want people to answer in a particular order?

Nah - knock yourself our Volt.

With proper quotation this time
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #802 on: November 21, 2012, 01:53:48 pm »

Lets play a game:

@ everyone in this list.
{joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Provide your top 2 scum reads and the 1 person you would bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people.

Currently, my top 2 scum reads out of those 5 people are ashersky and Axxle.

I just reviewed ashersky's posts during Day 2 of M-XIV (where he was scum, came under pressure, and was ultimately lynched) and they remind me a lot of his posts here.  Especially his "this always happens to me" argument.  See below (#1040 from M-XIV):

I will note this happens to me every game it seems.  Shraeye and I are alike in this, in that everyone reads us as scummy and we're always town.  Like now.

I felt the case on Robz was good, and clearly I wasn't the only one.  So I disagree that that is a good reason to vote for me now.  I am just the easy target for scum to push, as I look awfully bad after the Robz flip.  Honestly, I expected it.

Going to sleep now, so in case I die overnight on the shortest D2 ever, with no claiming or anything, my reads for the town tomorrow:

I reiterate that I think one of Galz and Gruj is town and one is mafia.  I lean toward a town Gruj, as mentioned before.

I think Frisk knowingly pushed to have the highest post count to counter the lynch all lurkers f.ds meta, and his non-response to cases on him is scummy.

I found Shraeye's D1 inconsistent with his normal play, in that he posted much less, and much shorter than usual.  He's usually analytical and abrasive; he was neither on D1.  Sheeping isn't his style, and yet his vote on me looks just like that.  So slight scum read there.

I have full town reads on Eevee and Archetype, as mentioned.

For reference, ash's scumpartners in that game were yuma and Cuzz (neither mentioned at all in this post).

And the "not mentioned at all" issue is part of what has me suspicious of Axxle.  I agree with Qvist that Axxle, for whatever reason, is flying under people's radars.  I would have expected town!Axxle to get more flak (from scum) for lurking than he (Axxle) actually received.  I also find Axxle's waiting to the very end of hearing everyone else in the town weigh in on yuma to be awfully convenient.  And I especially don't like how quickly Axxle was willing to plunk a vote down in the joth/Eevee debate - while setting things up to go after Eevee tomorrow if joth flips town:

]I'm feeling very good about there being one scum in Eevee/Joth.  Most likely joth.

Vote: Joth

As for "who would I bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people":  that's easy.  Voltgloss.  Out of {joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}, I would bet the game that Voltgloss is town.

...that is, perhaps, not the answer you are looking for.  Well.  I think joth v. Eevee is, most likely, town v. town.  Which one of them I think is more likely to be town... I need to complete my reread on joth to decide for certain; but for now I would say I think Eevee is the most likely out of {joth, Axxle, Eevee, ashersky} to be town.  As I said previously, I have trouble seeing scum!Eevee opposing the yuma wagon so forcefully and so quickly, assuming yuma is town (and my current read on yuma is, indeed, that he is more likely town than scum).
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #803 on: November 21, 2012, 02:11:15 pm »

That quote from ashersky from XIV is very disappointing.  I gathered he had a penchant for getting mislynched and I saw it happened in  XIII as well but I did not expect that he would also have a penchant for taking a very defeatist attitude towards the mislynch even when he is scum.  I figured that his "ugh i'm going to get mislynched again" was honest cause it sounded like the end of XIII but the fact that he had precisely the same exasperation in XIV is pretty damning.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #804 on: November 21, 2012, 02:13:17 pm »

That quote from ashersky from XIV is very disappointing.  I gathered he had a penchant for getting mislynched and I saw it happened in  XIII as well but I did not expect that he would also have a penchant for taking a very defeatist attitude towards the mislynch even when he is scum.  I figured that his "ugh i'm going to get mislynched again" was honest cause it sounded like the end of XIII but the fact that he had precisely the same exasperation in XIV is pretty damning.

Or rather, instead of "damning", it destroys a lot of the town cred that I was giving him for his response to lurking. If he has exactly the same response both when he is town and when he is scum, then that action does not merit points for either towniness or scuminess.  I still want him to answer mine (and Eevee's) questions as I would like more to go on. 
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #805 on: November 21, 2012, 03:37:45 pm »

Sorry for all the lurking, I had not much time.
The game really gives me a headache. The longer I think about it the more everybody looks scummy.
So I'm not sure about the yuma vs. Eevee / Captain_Frisk dilemma, I'm still trying to figure that out.
I'm trying to get a better picture of all of you, but the problem is:

I still have no read on Axxle and it seems that most of you don't have a read neither. He had a lot of one-liners in his post.
Axxle, could you clarify your position in more detail?
What do you think of the yuma wagon?
I a similar way I like to hear more from ashersky as well.
I don't understand the first question. What position?
I have disliked the yuma wagon.  I still don't understand it beyond the hammer and his null reactions to his wagon.  I think scum would have tried to play the hammer as much more of a mistake than he did
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #806 on: November 21, 2012, 03:40:31 pm »

Your position in general, your standpoint. I mean who is likely scum and why? Who is likely town and why?
Just talk a little bit more, it's really hard to read you.

Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #807 on: November 21, 2012, 03:44:52 pm »

Lets play a game:

@ everyone in this list.
{joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Provide your top 2 scum reads and the 1 person you would bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people.
Scum: Joth, Asher
Town: Axxle.  If not allowed, Voltgloss.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #808 on: November 21, 2012, 03:48:36 pm »

The only proponent for Lynch all Lurkers in this town is Eevee.  That's why I'm not really getting targeted (I looked this up earlier to see if players were behaving oddly)
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #809 on: November 21, 2012, 03:52:02 pm »

Your position in general, your standpoint. I mean who is likely scum and why? Who is likely town and why?
Just talk a little bit more, it's really hard to read you.
I should mention I'm phone posting and will be for the weekend.  I'll see if I can list my basic reads.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #810 on: November 21, 2012, 03:59:33 pm »


1. Captain_Frisk - scumread. Did not like how he pushed on Galz nor how easily he jumped the yuma wagon.  The discrepancy is scummy.
2. jotheonah - scumread. I think I mentioned a few things when I voted for him at the start of day 2.  His interactions with Eevee strongly indicate they are on opposite teams.
3. Robz - Killed Night 0 - Vanilla Townie
4. Eevee - townread. For many of the reasons Volt said and general gut.
5. Grujah - Voltgloss Replaced
6. Axxle - I have mod supplied information that he's town.
7. eHunt - Killed Night 1 - Vanilla Townie
8. yuma - townread. The wagon reeked of scum. His claim reeked of town.
9. cuzz - Killed Night 0 - Town Vigilante
10. ashersky - scumread, overall lurking and sheeping.  That quote is pretty damning.
11. QVist - townread. Reminds me of SFS in his first game.
12. TheMunch - null read.  He's done scummy and townie things.
13. Galzria - Lynched Day 1 - Serial Killer
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #811 on: November 21, 2012, 04:08:34 pm »

That quote from ashersky from XIV is very disappointing.  I gathered he had a penchant for getting mislynched and I saw it happened in  XIII as well but I did not expect that he would also have a penchant for taking a very defeatist attitude towards the mislynch even when he is scum.  I figured that his "ugh i'm going to get mislynched again" was honest cause it sounded like the end of XIII but the fact that he had precisely the same exasperation in XIV is pretty damning.

Or it shows my meta is the same for either alignment.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #812 on: November 21, 2012, 04:08:49 pm »

1. Captain_Frisk - scumread. Did not like how he pushed on Galz nor how easily he jumped the yuma wagon.  The discrepancy is scummy.
8. yuma - townread. The wagon reeked of scum. His claim reeked of town.

so - I'm scummy for avoiding the scum filled yuma wagon? 

Got it.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #813 on: November 21, 2012, 04:10:45 pm »

Lets play a game:

@ everyone in this list.
{joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Provide your top 2 scum reads and the 1 person you would bet the game is town inside that set of 5 people.

Excluding yourself makes this silly.  But I can play.  From that random subset, axxle and Joth are scummiest and Eevee is towniest (which is consistently what I've been saying all day.) after myself.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #814 on: November 21, 2012, 04:16:56 pm »

@asher - here's where I'm coming from.  Feel free to throw up a scum read / case on me if you want, but this is where that subset came from and why its not random.

All right folks

1. Captain_Frisk - I'm town.
2. jotheonah
4. Eevee
5. Voltgloss
6. Axxle
8. yuma - I'm going to gamble that he is town.  I would have claimed a PR as scum.
10. ashersky
11. QVist - aggressive tunnelling on me is unlikely as a new scum player
12. TheMunch - bad theory is unlikely to be scum

This leaves the scum team as 3 out of {joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

If we can just eliminate one person out of that set, we can lynch the rest in order and win the game, because we have 1 mislynch.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #815 on: November 21, 2012, 04:19:08 pm »

I dont think I'm comfortable with lynching Ashersky.  His return felt very similar to his last day in MXIII.  I really want to reread Ash when he did post earlier (cause one post is not enough to go on) and see if this correlates with how he was playing in MXIII.  That being said, Ash's comeback post said he didn't want to get mislynched for lurking and followed it up with "I've already said my reads, I stand by them."  I'm not particularly going to hold that against him as my reads haven't changed all too much today, however, I think there was a lot that happened while he was away and he didn't really comment on any of it.  I dont necessarily think this is particularly scummy, just really bad play.

So that being said I have some questions for Ashersky:
What do you think of CF's "lynch my short list"?
What do you think of Eevee's immediate vote for you following that proposal?
Some have developed town reads on Yuma while you were gone, such as volt; has Yuma's responses give you a stronger or weaker scum read on him?
Which do you think is the strongest case on Eevee?
You share my reads on Eevee/Yuma; do you have any thoughts on who the final scum is?

As I reread more of ashersky I might come up with more questions; this just seems to be relevant discussion he did not participate in.

CF's lynch my list is a scum gambit for the win, I believe.  He's been trying to lead town in the way he loves as mafia, and he's trying to again.

Eevee's vote was bad town play, I think.  Town v. Town there.

Yuma's survival has not given me a townier read than before, but his posts have stayed consistent throughout.  When we were scum together before, I think he was more meticulous, so I think his posting does gain him some towncred.

I don't like the cases on Eevee, and don't share your opinion on him.  Pretty sure I've been anti-Eevee-lynch all this time.

Vote: Captain_Frisk.

VLA for Thanksgiving.

Also, the lurker lynch thing will continue to discriminate against those of us living outside the majority time zones of everyone else.  I am contributing reads, and votes.  Nothing else I can do in my role here.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #816 on: November 21, 2012, 04:24:55 pm »

Wait, I'm confused.


Excluding yourself makes this silly.  But I can play.  From that random subset, axxle and Joth are scummiest and Eevee is towniest (which is consistently what I've been saying all day.) after myself.

In the above post, ash calls out joth as scummy...

Eevee's vote was bad town play, I think.  Town v. Town there.


...and less than ten minutes later ash is saying joth v. Eevee is town v. town?

Am I misunderstanding something here?
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #817 on: November 21, 2012, 04:45:55 pm »

Wait, I'm confused.


Excluding yourself makes this silly.  But I can play.  From that random subset, axxle and Joth are scummiest and Eevee is towniest (which is consistently what I've been saying all day.) after myself.

In the above post, ash calls out joth as scummy...

Eevee's vote was bad town play, I think.  Town v. Town there.


...and less than ten minutes later ash is saying joth v. Eevee is town v. town?

Am I misunderstanding something here?

Eevee voting me was town v. Town.  Didn't Eevee immediately vote for me after Frisk's plan?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #818 on: November 21, 2012, 04:46:29 pm »

Also, the lurker lynch thing will continue to discriminate against those of us living outside the majority time zones of everyone else.  I am contributing reads, and votes.  Nothing else I can do in my role here.

PINL - voting for me is not contributing to town.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #819 on: November 21, 2012, 04:46:51 pm »

Wait, I'm confused.


Excluding yourself makes this silly.  But I can play.  From that random subset, axxle and Joth are scummiest and Eevee is towniest (which is consistently what I've been saying all day.) after myself.

In the above post, ash calls out joth as scummy...

Eevee's vote was bad town play, I think.  Town v. Town there.


...and less than ten minutes later ash is saying joth v. Eevee is town v. town?

Am I misunderstanding something here?

Eevee voting me was town v. Town.  Didn't Eevee immediately vote for me after Frisk's plan?

My bad, I did misunderstand.  I thought you were talking about Eevee's most recent vote on joth.  Never mind.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #820 on: November 21, 2012, 06:40:51 pm »

1. Captain_Frisk - 97
2. jotheonah - 71
4. Eevee - 88
5. Grujah - Voltgloss Replaced - 60
6. Axxle - 64
8. yuma -103
10. ashersky - 42
11. QVist - 38
12. TheMunch - 80

Is anyone completely floored that I am the top poster? I am. I have never been anywhere near the top.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #821 on: November 21, 2012, 06:43:02 pm »

So I'm not sure about the yuma vs. Eevee / Captain_Frisk dilemma, I'm still trying to figure that out.

I am not sure what you are referring to here... I dont' think I am in a dilemma with either of these two players.
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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #822 on: November 21, 2012, 06:44:25 pm »

1. Captain_Frisk - 97
2. jotheonah - 71
4. Eevee - 88
5. Grujah - Voltgloss Replaced - 60
6. Axxle - 64
8. yuma -103
10. ashersky - 42
11. QVist - 38
12. TheMunch - 80

Is anyone completely floored that I am the top poster? I am. I have never been anywhere near the top.

I'm surprised I'm as low as I am. I have felt very active this game!
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #823 on: November 21, 2012, 06:44:37 pm »

That quote from ashersky from XIV is very disappointing.  I gathered he had a penchant for getting mislynched and I saw it happened in  XIII as well but I did not expect that he would also have a penchant for taking a very defeatist attitude towards the mislynch even when he is scum.  I figured that his "ugh i'm going to get mislynched again" was honest cause it sounded like the end of XIII but the fact that he had precisely the same exasperation in XIV is pretty damning.

Now do you see why I was so frustrated with you giving him sympathy points earlier on...?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #824 on: November 21, 2012, 06:47:40 pm »

Also, the lurker lynch thing will continue to discriminate against those of us living outside the majority time zones of everyone else.  I am contributing reads, and votes.  Nothing else I can do in my role here.

Just providing reads and votes isn't enough.

You aren't asking questions. You aren't getting involved in discussion. You aren't probing, quoting and analyzing and trying to flesh out scum. So either you are scum just sitting back and hoping town explodes (it is a good strategy and one that I often employ) or you are town and not quite doing enough.

And I do understand the timezone thing is hard. It most certainly is. I often have a hard time having a back and forth dialogue with people because I am not on at the same time as others and am often not on nearly as much, but still... Just reads and votes isn't enough.

(as an aside, I don't want to make you mad, or make you feel like you have to spend all this time on mafia just to play and be a good player. You don't. But if you are wondering what you can do to be less of a lurker, that is my answer, probe, ask questions even if no one else is around, give opinions on statement, etc.)
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