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Author Topic: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Game over, Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 198497 times)

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faust

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #350 on: September 13, 2015, 04:06:24 pm »

Interesting. What do you make of it?

Or should we wait to hear an explanation from faust before giving opinions?

I did not intend to softclaim anything, but I can see that my posts could be read that way.

Why were you so adamant that you not lynch PPS earlier? you didnt' answer that question when I asked it before:

Didn't you listen? No lynching PPS today.

Also, what was this then? Cause I thought you were just being super obvious about you two being masons, but at same time thought you were being too obvious if you were trying to not just come out and say it...

It's because I think PPS is town.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #351 on: September 13, 2015, 04:43:54 pm »

That early in the game you were soooo confident to declare multiple times that we weren't allowed to lynch PPS?

For clarity at this point there had been 150 (-43 from pre-game) posts in the game and the game had been going on for about 5 hours.

And you actually first declare that PPS wouldn't be lynched today even earlier than that (76 posts into the game, again -43 from pre-game).

Can you tell me which of these posts made you so sure that he was town so quickly?

In that time here are the posts from PPS:


Vote: pingpongsam, no way that guy isn't scum.
but I still have thing about self voting

I know, right? That's why I voted for him too.
I refuse to claim.
I refuse to claim.

BUT WHY? It will be fun!

Seriously. Have we ever had a game where we just mass claimed out of the gates. Conventional thinking has always been that it is bad. But do we have any empirical data to back this up or just theoretics?

Because the last time I claimed VT on day 1 they mislynched me.
This is how it works. If you're scum you lie and claim VT. If you're VT you tell the truth and claim VT. If you are a Town PR you hide yourself by claiming VT.

So we all massclaim VT and that is so informative and helpful that Town just wins the game D1.
This is how it works. If you're scum you lie and claim VT. If you're VT you tell the truth and claim VT. If you are a Town PR you hide yourself by claiming VT.

So we all massclaim VT and that is so informative and helpful that Town just wins the game D1.

If you are a town PR why would you hide as claiming VT? that would be silly.

And if all the mafia claimed VT that would be great! We would just lynch VTs and the pool size would be 3 mafia in 9 instead of 3 mafia in 12! Awesome!

Okay, so clearly scum is going to claim PR (at least 1 of them), so the strategy has to become lynch claimed PRs since the pool from which there are obvious liars to hit is likely much smaller. Meanwhile the scum who claimed VT know which PR to kill when it is most beneficial to do so otherwise hitting VTs until the time is right.
This is how it works. If you're scum you lie and claim VT. If you're VT you tell the truth and claim VT. If you are a Town PR you hide yourself by claiming VT.

So we all massclaim VT and that is so informative and helpful that Town just wins the game D1.

If you are a town PR why would you hide as claiming VT? that would be silly.

And if all the mafia claimed VT that would be great! We would just lynch VTs and the pool size would be 3 mafia in 9 instead of 3 mafia in 12! Awesome!

Scumslip.

The only people who could have an assumption regarding PR count at this time are scum.

vote: yuma

See, I don't even know how to tell if this is true or not.
This idea is either slightly (but statistically insignificant) better than No Lynch which is a terrible idea without question.
chairs isn't lurking. when chairs lurks you don't see him hardly at all ever. This is highly active chairs.
The only sane vote on chairs at this moment is for playing outside his meta.
This idea is either slightly (but statistically insignificant) better than No Lynch which is a terrible idea without question.

I disagree and unless you show me how I will continue. But that is ok. I think it would be fun and potentially beneficial to mass claim. It hasnt' been done before so I don't know why people (including me of the past) are so sure that it is terrible.

Honestly I think the risk is relatively small and the reward is also relatively small (but potentially really big because it puts the onus on mafia to not make a critical mistake).

The issue is, in a matter of minutes between just the two of us we contrived 3 wholly different outcomes for this which means that there isn't any way to determine what the actual outcome is even within a suitable subset of possible outcomes. Thus, it is dis-informative and by the time the actuality of the course of action begins to pan out it will be too late for the duped Townies.
No it isn't. I am not counting PRs. I am counting mafia, which everyone knows...

How do you know that it becomes 3 mafia out of 9 VTs?

Because in the scenario described all persons claimed VT.
If I were a Town PR forced to claim I would claim VT. Thus, I am fundamentally opposed.
If I were a Town PR forced to claim I would claim VT. Thus, I am fundamentally opposed.

ok. well if you are fundamentally opposed then I will drop it. I am not going to force anyone. I would like to try to talk people into it. BUT I do want to do it at some point in a mafia game. I think it would 1. be good for town in that game and 2. provide evidence for the future.
If you truly support the notion you would first claim yourself.
WW claimed VT and has not been wagoned yet.
So you want us to create empirical evidence that it is, in fact, a bad idea...
Generally, speaking, I like to have an assumption that something is a good idea before I embark upon an effort to obtain empirical evidence that it was, in fact, a good idea. Starting off on the assumption that an idea is bad is not a good reason to try and prove it so.
Voting for PPS is the only reasonable course of action at this point.

A quick, cursory glance shows posts that up to the point that you made your strong declaration were 1. self voting 2. arguing with me about theory 3. once defending chairs about lurking 4.

It isn't that I don't think you can have a town read from that, it is that I don't think you can have really any read from that (and this isn't a criticism of PPS's posts) let alone a strong read to say multiple times that we shouldn't be lynching him.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #352 on: September 13, 2015, 07:53:38 pm »

Remember that time I pointed all of that out and no one noticed?
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #353 on: September 13, 2015, 08:19:18 pm »

Nope... But I believe you!
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #354 on: September 13, 2015, 11:56:02 pm »

Remember that time I pointed all of that out and no one noticed?

I don't, and I looked back in the last 5 pages and didn't find it. It looks to me like you voted PPS for pressure, unvoted him, and now you have a town read. How is that similar to Yuma pointing out that he doesn't understand where a town!PPS read comes from.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #355 on: September 14, 2015, 12:08:19 am »

Remember that time I pointed all of that out and no one noticed?

I don't, and I looked back in the last 5 pages and didn't find it. It looks to me like you voted PPS for pressure, unvoted him, and now you have a town read. How is that similar to Yuma pointing out that he doesn't understand where a town!PPS read comes from.

I was talking about pointing out how it was odd that Faust had such a strong read so early.

I have a town read on PPS for the general sensibilities of his reads/wagon analysis and how he went about it.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #356 on: September 14, 2015, 03:28:06 am »

Computer is toast.
Should be able to borrow laptop tomorrow afternoon.
I'll catch up then.
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Awaclus

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #357 on: September 14, 2015, 03:53:45 am »

Computer is toast.
Should be able to borrow laptop tomorrow afternoon.
I'll catch up then.

That's not a proper haiku.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #358 on: September 14, 2015, 08:37:42 am »

anyone want to give me a quick synopsis of awaclus' typical meta as town/mafia
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #359 on: September 14, 2015, 08:52:51 am »

anyone want to give me a quick synopsis of awaclus' typical meta as town/mafia

Town is epitome of antitown, and stubbornly so.  Aside from the minor town benefit of presenting himself as a viable mislynch target for scum, I'm led to assume this is for the purpose of ease of replication for scum games.  Scum is, then, an attempt to emulate the former. 
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #360 on: September 14, 2015, 08:53:02 am »

You can also refer to his signature. 
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #361 on: September 14, 2015, 08:54:58 am »

You can also refer to his signature.

I have all the signatures blocked (too many dancing pokemon and floating banners) but that information is good to know, cause I kinda want to vote for him...
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #362 on: September 14, 2015, 08:57:11 am »

Actually apparently it's from a game that's still going on, but this is the link: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=13768.msg520589#msg520589.
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ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #363 on: September 14, 2015, 10:22:09 am »

Yeah, basically that.

Awaclus is the most anti-town player currently active, by far.  He's overtaken me by a long shot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #364 on: September 14, 2015, 10:24:49 am »

Yeah, basically that.

Awaclus is the most anti-town player currently active, by far.  He's overtaken me by a long shot.

Quick!  Self vote!
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chairs

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #365 on: September 14, 2015, 10:28:47 am »

Yeah, basically that.

Awaclus is the most anti-town player currently active, by far.  He's overtaken me by a long shot.

It's okay, I have faith you can get the title back.

yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #366 on: September 14, 2015, 10:43:00 am »

Yeah, basically that.

Awaclus is the most anti-town player currently active, by far.  He's overtaken me by a long shot.

Well I can't say anything about Awaclus--if he wants to jump in on that regard I think that would be fair, but certainly doesnt' have to--but I don't think you are being very fair to yourself.

I never considered you an anti-town player in that I always felt that you thought what you were doing was best for town, at least when you actually were town. I don't feel like you ever played town badly just so you would have an advantage during scum games or played town badly just to troll or whatever.

But in terms of his meta is there a way to separate town!awaclus and mafia!awaclus. I mean, it is never easy to separate anyone from those two identities and certainly don't expect there to be a magic bullet for it or is he one of those players that consistently just requires a flip/investigation the only way to really find him out?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #367 on: September 14, 2015, 10:46:18 am »

But in terms of his meta is there a way to separate town!awaclus and mafia!awaclus. I mean, it is never easy to separate anyone from those two identities and certainly don't expect there to be a magic bullet for it or is he one of those players that consistently just requires a flip/investigation the only way to really find him out?

I think there is, but I'm not sure it's so great to talk about it.
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ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #368 on: September 14, 2015, 10:55:53 am »

I think he does a good job of emulating his town self as scum, mostly because it's all about being mysterious, not explaining things, not giving any actual opinions.  He likes to vote without reason, call people scummy or towny without reasons, etc.

I feel like if he all of a sudden were more towny, it wouldn't mean he's scum, just that he's finally come around.

And the only reason he'll ever come around is because he's been lynched too often.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #369 on: September 14, 2015, 10:58:13 am »

I think he does a good job of emulating his town self as scum, mostly because it's all about being mysterious, not explaining things, not giving any actual opinions.  He likes to vote without reason, call people scummy or towny without reasons, etc.

I feel like if he all of a sudden were more towny, it wouldn't mean he's scum, just that he's finally come around.

And the only reason he'll ever come around is because he's been lynched too often.

ok

vote: awalcus
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faust

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #370 on: September 14, 2015, 11:00:26 am »

That early in the game you were soooo confident to declare multiple times that we weren't allowed to lynch PPS?

For clarity at this point there had been 150 (-43 from pre-game) posts in the game and the game had been going on for about 5 hours.

And you actually first declare that PPS wouldn't be lynched today even earlier than that (76 posts into the game, again -43 from pre-game).

Can you tell me which of these posts made you so sure that he was town so quickly?

Well, I don't love to explain my own playstyle, but if it helps you...

PPS's early-game behaviour did not read scum to me. I mean, what is the reason for scum to self-vote? Of course scum!PPS could pull it off, but that plus a general feeling that this isn't scum!PPS made me want to PoE him for D1.

And just when I decided this, a PPS wagon forms. I think it helps move the game forward if you take firm stances, no matter how badly justified they are. So that is what I did.
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faust

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #371 on: September 14, 2015, 11:00:42 am »

I think he does a good job of emulating his town self as scum, mostly because it's all about being mysterious, not explaining things, not giving any actual opinions.  He likes to vote without reason, call people scummy or towny without reasons, etc.

I feel like if he all of a sudden were more towny, it wouldn't mean he's scum, just that he's finally come around.

And the only reason he'll ever come around is because he's been lynched too often.

ok

vote: awalcus

Vote: yuma
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #372 on: September 14, 2015, 11:14:31 am »

Well, I don't love to explain my own playstyle, but if it helps you...

PPS's early-game behaviour did not read scum to me. I mean, what is the reason for scum to self-vote? Of course scum!PPS could pull it off, but that plus a general feeling that this isn't scum!PPS made me want to PoE him for D1.

And just when I decided this, a PPS wagon forms. I think it helps move the game forward if you take firm stances, no matter how badly justified they are. So that is what I did.

I actually don't mind the justification. I mind the extremely strong stance that is above and beyond a stance. There is a need for strong stances, yes. But the opinion of "I think PPS is town right now" is still a strong stance. So is "PPS really looks townie to me" or "I am not going to vote for PPS because I think he is town". Those are all still strong stances.

But you went above that. You made it look like you knew something above just having reads and I think it is important to differentiate between that. Your doing so was weird to me.

But before day1 started I was reading through a couple of my old games, where I thought I played well as town, to try and remember how to scumhunt and I found this old quote that I liked:

I mean, it is gratifying that people think my cases are good. Obvioulsy the one on nkiribit wasn't. I don't know if the one on lio is or not. I will go read his responses and see what comes of them.

Ultimately I am trying to change up how I read people and try and go about this differently, because aside from a really solid case on WinterSpartan in Ninjas, calling out archetype in bankers and a somewhat lucky, but still really solid case on Dsell in the Blitz game, I haven't had the best of luck as of late and part of that is because I think I am calling out weird behavior as opposed to mafia play.

so while I think your behavior weird, I don't necessarily think it is scummy and I think your response furthers that opinion.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #373 on: September 14, 2015, 11:15:25 am »

I think he does a good job of emulating his town self as scum, mostly because it's all about being mysterious, not explaining things, not giving any actual opinions.  He likes to vote without reason, call people scummy or towny without reasons, etc.

I feel like if he all of a sudden were more towny, it wouldn't mean he's scum, just that he's finally come around.

And the only reason he'll ever come around is because he's been lynched too often.

ok

vote: awalcus

Vote: yuma

and now you have voted for me... that is too bad. is the post you quote the sole justification or was my questioning you part of your vote?
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faust

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #374 on: September 14, 2015, 11:21:47 am »

The post is the justificifation. It just looks like a completely non-committal policy vote that is based on nothing but people telling you things about Awaclus that you haven't even confirmed in any way.
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