Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

23776

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 27, 2013, 11:52:39 am »

I want to note something about sudgy claim: It could be perfectly correct, and he could still be scum. That would be sort of a negative utility role for scum, and of course they'd want to out the captain sooner rather than later.

Is this all likely? I don't know. sudgy didn't strike me as the player to go for such long-term plans (no offense).

Yes, but why would he claim to be Captained on D1?

To out the Captain? IIRC, he tried to get both of them to half-claim.

23777

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 27, 2013, 11:50:27 am »

I want to note something about sudgy claim: It could be perfectly correct, and he could still be scum. That would be sort of a negative utility role for scum, and of course they'd want to out the captain sooner rather than later.

Is this all likely? I don't know. sudgy didn't strike me as the player to go for such long-term plans (no offense).

23778

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 27, 2013, 11:40:33 am »

Also, note that if sudgy is telling the truth, then the mcmc-sudgy link increases swing in the way OPPOSITE to the Galz-shraeye link (assuming Galz is town).  By which I mean:

- If Galz is town, scum killing Galz is double-edged.  They kill a town player, but lose at least one of their power roles.

- If mcmc and sudgy are town, scum killing mcmc is a double benefit (for scum).  They kill a town player, AND the town loses ANOTHER power role.

I don't quite understand. Isn't killing mcmc in this case the same as killing a town PR? Lose a town player, lose a power. Of course that's not true if mcmc captained two or more town PRs. That would indeed be swingy.

23779

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 27, 2013, 11:37:50 am »

Well, I guess if you all want to showclaim, let's do it.

I'm from Modern Family.

23780

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:32:34 pm »

Ah, I see.  But I think he was no longer able to do that after having breadcrumbed so heavily Day 1.  I see he's since made that point himself.

I have learned the hard way that "hey Player X claimed a power role but he's not playing it how I think it should be played optimally, so he must be SCUM!" is often just wrong.  People differ on how power roles should be played.  That's the nature of the game.

Yes, I guess that's right. I'm also in no way sure that chairs is scum. It's only that I'm also not sure he is town, and I like to be cautious.

23781

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:29:35 pm »

Two things:

1. Potentially it means there's no doc, yes
2. Captains can captain multiple roles

Actually the more I think about it the more scum might want to make this claim actually. Curious what sudgy says about why he claimed.

But sudgy breadcrumbed this D1, right? He wouldn't have been able to do this if he was scum, because he didn't know there was a captain.

23782

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:19:24 pm »

Because if I start revealing results, it would become obvious which show I was targeting.

You could still have urged us to showclaim before you reveal your results.

  Isn't that exactly what chairs has done?

I mean later. Like, investigate players with known flavor until there's an incriminating result, then urge for a show-claim, then present your results. That seems like the way to go in this situation.

23783

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:15:51 pm »

So...you have a null read on me and a scum read on 3 others, and that makes me the scummiest? I mean, if you find me scummy you find me scummy, but your vote doesn't seem all too consistent with the rest of your post. What makes the scummiest exactly in your mind?

Walrus, note that my vote for you is a result of three posts analysis. Two of them made you look scummy, the latest one didn't.

23784

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:05:06 pm »

I believe that I did sufficient bread-crumbing D1 in my attempts to get a show-claim without hard-claiming my role so as to make it unlikely I would have survived to D3 without doctor support, regardless.

I understand that reasoning, but I don't think I agree. We have Voltgloss as IC and Galzria as close-to-IC now. I would think scum has a pretty tough choice here. But alright, it makes some sense.

23785

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 04:58:41 pm »

Because if I start revealing results, it would become obvious which show I was targeting.

You could still have urged us to showclaim before you reveal your results.

23786

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 04:56:32 pm »

Why do you think it is reasonably likely that chairs is scum?  Just because he claimed?  If so, why do you think his claim isn't "the best move" if he is town?

Because he will be killed, obviously. And like I already said, he could have just investigated the players with known flavor. His claim could have waited until at least D3.

23787

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 04:39:54 pm »

EFHW, faust:  do you think chairs is scum, or do you think he's town but showclaiming is nevertheless a bad idea?

I believe it's reasonably likely that he is scum. As town, I think it wouldn't be the best move for him to claim. Now that he claimed, assuming he says the truth, we should probably show-claim. But I don't understand why he would claim as town.

Also, the problem is this: if he's town, he'll tell us one of his results and then probably die. If he's scum, it likely not him that takes use out of the showclaim, but one of his teammates. So we give them power until that unknown teammate dies. The risk of chairs being scum heavily outweighs the benefit we get if he is town.

23788

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 03:47:48 pm »

I still have a bad feeling about this. Shouldn't we at least wait until everyone has seen this? Show claiming is beneficial for chairs, but it might be detrimental to someone else. And this day is far from over; we still have time.

23789

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 03:18:59 pm »

I don't feel good about chairs' claim. So we have two cops, in addition to the other PRs already outed? This doesn't seem likely.

23790

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 03:16:41 pm »

Oh... I see, for future days, yeah, you want to only set out to investigate people of the correct show. Yeah, okay.

Only that I'm not sure how many future days there will be for chairs with this claim...

23791

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 03:11:46 pm »

I am semi-Naive.  I will never get guilty results on one of the shows, even if that person is guilty.

Hence my desire for a full show claim now, before it's obvious which show.

Why don't you just investigate those people whose show you already know?

23792

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 02:36:08 pm »

Actually this makes me think that mail-mi vs chairs IS town v town. Scum would know that with certainty.

Well, not if there are multiple factions. But you're right, this is also a possibility. The only case where I don't see shraeye stating this is when both chairs and mail-mi are scum.

23793

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 02:14:00 pm »

I definitely hear this concern, Robz.  I remember well being Death (SK) in Major Arcana Mafia I, where a mass suitclaim (roughly equivalent to showclaims here) would have been a huge boon to me.

The thing is... we already HAVE about a third of the town whose shows are already claimed and/or easily inferred.  So if chairs is scum looking to identify people from Show X or Show Y, well, he's already accomplished that - at least well enough to give him targets for several nights.

What just came to my mind - isn't this true for town!chairs as well? So if he really is a cop and need to know the show of his target to be useful, why go all the way and claim to force a mass showclaim? As you already said, he has enough targets for several nights.

23794

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 02:11:03 pm »

I disagree with faust re: Eevee.  I reread him, and of course there is nothing overtly scummy, but it is uncanny how he participates just enough without actually getting involved in any of the larger debates taking place.  Also, he was not at the soft deadline, but WAS online at the time.  The same was true of TA.

Well, I didn't mean to say that Eevee behaviour is completely townie, I'm just saying that his interactions with the dead players give me a town vibe.

23795

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 02:03:15 pm »

Ugh, I also forgot to reference the posts I'm taking all this from. I still have them here, in case someone's interested.

23796

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 02:01:13 pm »

Argh, of course a have forgotten the most notable thing about shraeye: He states twice (#561 and #1001) that mail-mi vs. chairs is town vs. town. This makes me think that one of them could well be scum.

23797

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 01:58:38 pm »

Last flip-reread. There wasn't as much to find as I'd hoped. The interactions:

Twistedarcher: In the beginning, shraeye and TA fight a little (#200, #563, #564), but later shraeye says he's getting „good vibes“ from TA (#830). Nothing after that. Doesn't look like scum bussing each other. Slight town read on TA for that.

Eevee: Has a town read on shraeye at the beginning, shraeye buddys Eevee for that. From that, Eevee look somewhat townie.

Sudgy: Votes for shraeye early, later shraeye votes for him. This situation looks much more like bussing than the TA thing. Slight scum read.

Walrus: starts out suspecting shraeye, ends with a town read on him. I could see scum or town do that. So null here.

Voltaire: He and shraeye fight a lot D1. It's perfectly likely that Voltaire killed shraeye. He could be vig or SK/second scum faction for that, I find vig less likely because given the size of this game, i expect two scum factions, and we don't have a third night kill. So scum read.

Liopoil/Jorbles: shraeye votes for him and then disappears, even though he knows that he's likely to be lynched and he could vote mcmc instead. This makes Jorbles look more townie.

EFHW: Gets defended by shraeye late D1. Leaning scum for that.

With this, I'm concluding my recurrent segment „flip analysis“, and hopefully can focus more on the things that are going on right now. I will also vote: Walrus as he came out looking the scummiest from this. Another thing I'm taking from this analysis is that Eevee is likely town.

23798

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 09:06:50 am »

So, you find myself, Walrus, and Voltaire (the people who everyone else has already said today they think they could lynch) scummy, while finding everyone who hasn't gotten any pressure today towny.

As I said multiple times, I found Nkirbit's actions null-to-slightly-towny, and the fact that everyone was jumping on actions that to me seemed null gave me a huge town read on Nkirbit. People on his wagon were trying to paint him as scummy from actions that just weren't scummy.

I have not considered today's actions in this, honestly. Above that, what you're saying is not even true. Eevee has already been under suspicion.

23799

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 08:59:38 am »

Now to the second flip – nkirbit. Generally, I tend to find the people giving him a town read townier – because hey, scum lynched nkirbit, so they must have been worried that some town members find nkirbit townie. The list of people finding nkirbit townie includes:

Twistedarcher (many posts, for example #756), Eevee (#1154) and Robz (#919)

More specific interactions:

Twistedarcher: This really stands out. TA opposes the nkirbit wagon from the beginning (#728, #744, #756, #786). But I thought then and think now that his reasons for that were weak, and there was some misleading going on. Also note that scum!shraeye states that he gets „good vibes“ from TA for that (#830). Then, after Voltgloss' defense of nkirbit, TA has a „yay, the IC agrees with me“-post (#889). All in all, this really seems like scum playing for towncred.

Walrus: He doesn't jump on the „scumslip“, says he can understand it (#510). Then he votes nkirbit with not much more reasoning than „it's the only viable wagon“ (#745). After Voltgloss' post, he changes his vote „for the sake of town solidarity“ (#955). Much sheeping here. I'm leaning scum.

Voltaire: Says he buys nkirbit's „scumslip“ explanation (#518). Later he repeatedly defends people for being on nkirbit's wagon (#755, #768). I don't get a lot from that. As nkirbit was town, defending people voting for him seems a little bit scummy.

BocaJ: Votes nkirbit for the „slip“ (#591) and is the only one never to change that. I'm seeing town here. As a newbie, I can understand people wanting to vote on some „hard“ basis rather than „but XY is acting exactly like in that other game where he was scum!“

Liopoil/Jorbles: Defends nkirbits „scumslip“ (#491). Comes back after Voltgloss' post and calls the nkirbit wagon „silly“ (#941), which of course is an easy position to take once the IC has weighed in. I'm not really getting anything from that.

So from that, I get a town read on Eevee, Robz and bocaJ, and a scum read on Twistedarcher and Walrus (and a little bit Voltaire).

This is exhausting. I might take a little break before I look at the last (and probably most interesting) flip.

23800

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)

« on: September 26, 2013, 05:44:04 am »

We have some flips now. Even one mafia flip! That's great, as I believe it may be of help when we try to find the other scum. We should look closely on who interacted with mcmc, nkirbit and shraeye in a suspicious way. I've already done a reread for mcmc during the night, and I'll try to give some results here.

So which interactions are notable?

Liopoil/Jorbles: Helps mcmc fulfill his secondary wincon. (post #296) Defends mcmc a lot (#979, #994, #1015,#1022), but in the end agrees to vote for him, despite still thinking he is town (#1350). I can easily see his interactions as scum trying to oppose the lynch of a townie to gain towncred.

EFHW: This is interesting because EFHW is basically the only one who pushed mcmc for things other than lurking (#940, #1070,#1078). She doesn't agree that an mcmc lynch will be informative, however. (#986) This gives me more of a town vibe for her.

Robz: Opposes the mcmc wagon (#1072, #1186), but is frustrated that he left later (#1485). Is this scum hoping for a claim by mcmc, getting trust for opposing the wagon on him? Could be. Slight scum.

Walrus: Sheeps Voltgloss (#955) and EFHW (#989) on the mcmc case. Looks like scum jumping the easy wagon.

Voltaire: Strange. A lot back (#355, #1031, #1064, #1521) and forth (#881, #895, #1255, #1319, #1332) here. First gets town vibes from mcmc, then is okay with lynching him, then again shows concern. I'm getting more of a town vibe from this, scum I think would stick to their reads more.

Sudgy: defends mcmc all the way through (#990, #1341, #1370). I could see scum here, but it could be determined town.

Liopoil/Jorbles and Walrus seem most scummy from this. I will try to get this done for our other flips as well.