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[Voltaire]

As we wait for the chairs/showclaim situation to sort itself out, I want to move forward with our best plan of action: finding shraeye's partner(s).

I didn't hear any responses to my earlier lynch pool for today, so I assume it's either non-controversial (except for the fact I exclude myself, obviously) or people don't intend on going about things that way. Hoping that it's positive, I'm going to try to look at people closer now. The pool when we last left it (see my previous post for why those not seen here are excluded) was:

Eevee, Robz888, mail-mi, chairs, Twistedarcher, Sudgy, EFHW, WalrusMcFishSr, Dsell, Jorbles

I went back and re-read everything that came after Galz's claim (well, within reason). Galz told sudgy to hold up on claiming, which sudgy was planning on doing. It makes complete sense that sudgy was planning to reveal that he was Captained. Galz, knowing he enables people, is perhaps anticipating that sudgy is going to reveal he is enabled and thinks it's more important to get his information out there first. Galz, is that what you were thinking?

Re-reading sudgy before this claim, I think sudgy is 95% town. Why? Because why would captained!scum want to out the Captain, which is clearly what sudgy was going for? When the Captain dies, they lose their power. The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me. Hence, I think that sudgy is a believable claimed VT right now. He gets removed from the pool. (also, and this is a biggie - based on flavor, sudgy makes 100% sense as a Captained role. Since the mods told us flavor is important, this adds extra believability to the entire situtation).

• Walrus says he doesn't want to lynch Galz unless everyone agrees it's a good idea.
• (separate from this, nkirbit points out that shraeye called out nkirbit and not Robz for announcing lurking intent. scumpoints for Robz here)
• Dsell does not want to lynch Galz
• chairs actually is the first to vote for Galz post-claim
• Eevee does not want to lynch Galz
• (fyi, we have two dead confirmed town members voting for Galz as well - nkirbit and mcmc)
• lioJorbles is the second pool candidate to vote for Galz (for his different reasons)
• mail-mi votes for Galz (the 75% vote)
• (separate from this, Walrus uses the Galz situation to climb off the shraeye wagon without any attention. scumpoints for Walrus here)
• TA claims Galz is more likely scum but I don't think ever votes for him
• As far as I can tell, Robz never comments on whether we should lynch Galz or not.
• EFHW votes for Galz much later, thinking he enables scum (Dsell says this is crazy because Galz is a strong player)
• (btw, faust would be staying in the pool based on Galz interactions if he were in it. This is worth remembering for tomorrow)

Based on these Galz interactions (and removing sudgy because of his claim), this happens to our pool:

Eevee, Robz888, mail-mi, chairs, Twistedarcher, Sudgy, EFHW, WalrusMcFishSr, Dsell, Jorbles

I find it mega-super-plausible that both Robz and Eevee could be scum, and Robz's bringing up Eevee D1 is Robz bussing. If Robz is scum, I think it's 100% certain he bussed a teammate D1.

It's also really, really worth noting this exchange between myself and shraeye (not because I want towncred (though I think it gives me plenty), but because I think I got things right here). Specifically: shraeye, confirmed scum, doesn't want anyone to become obvtown, and a great way to change that is to just throw dirt on everyone.

There could be other lines of thinking that I'm missing. Please remind me of them. My lynch pool is currently:

Eevee, Robz888, Twistedarcher, WalrusMcFishSr, Dsell

barring new developments/analysis.

[Voltgloss]

Voltgloss - should I wait for fullclaim before I make my announcement regarding who I targeted?

Yes.  On balance, and given the state of the game, I think it is better to get everyone's showclaims before it becomes clear which show you can reliably investigate.  I've weighed the pros and cons (including the possibility that you are scum or that some other scum is boosted by this) and I think, given where the game is now, this is our best option going forward.

As to order of showclaims: 

- I would like Robz and faust to showclaim first.  Order doesn't matter between the two of you.
- After they have both claimed, I would like everyone NOT on Voltaire's list of 8 to showclaim (if you haven't already claimed).  Again, order doesn't matter within that group.
- Then everyone on Voltaire's list of 8 should showclaim.  Order doesn't matter within that group.
- After ahoppy has showclaimed, Voltaire, please explain how you guessed ahoppy's show.

[Voltgloss]

Also, I continue to basically play via phone/at work, so at some point a list of members of both shows (that have already claimed, if we don't proceed with full claim) will greatly benefit me.

I'll prepare this once all have showclaimed.

[Voltgloss]

I haven't fully parsed Voltaire's latest post, but I should add that we only have sudgy's word for it that mcmc's death made him lose his power (or what that power actually is).  The Captain entry on mafiascum doesn't say what happens to a Captained role when the Captain dies.  I think this is the first time we've seen this role on f:dS, so there isn't any precedent for how Captains "usually" work.

[Voltgloss]

Also, note that if sudgy is telling the truth, then the mcmc-sudgy link increases swing in the way OPPOSITE to the Galz-shraeye link (assuming Galz is town).  By which I mean:

- If Galz is town, scum killing Galz is double-edged.  They kill a town player, but lose at least one of their power roles.

- If mcmc and sudgy are town, scum killing mcmc is a double benefit (for scum).  They kill a town player, AND the town loses ANOTHER power role.

[Voltaire]

I haven't fully parsed Voltaire's latest post, but I should add that we only have sudgy's word for it that mcmc's death made him lose his power (or what that power actually is).  The Captain entry on mafiascum doesn't say what happens to a Captained role when the Captain dies.  I think this is the first time we've seen this role on f:dS, so there isn't any precedent for how Captains "usually" work.

This is a fair point. An equally valid ruling would be that the PR can now direct their own power without restraint. However, multiple lines of thought converge on sudgy being town for me, including this one:

• the claim
• he was clearing preparing to claim this D1
• voted for shraeye
• says vig should shoot Galzria

I could see scum doing some of these things for cred. I could not see scum doing all of these things for cred.

[Voltgloss]

I went back and re-read everything that came after Galz's claim (well, within reason). Galz told sudgy to hold up on claiming, which sudgy was planning on doing. It makes complete sense that sudgy was planning to reveal that he was Captained. Galz, knowing he enables people, is perhaps anticipating that sudgy is going to reveal he is enabled and thinks it's more important to get his information out there first. Galz, is that what you were thinking?

Voltaire, which posts are you referencing?  Will save me some time in reading back.

[Twistedarcher]

Well, I was thinking I would be useless now.  Might as well have another IC.

Said every other VT claim, grrr!

ICs are way better than claimed VTs.  If I had the choice to make an IC, I would go for it.  VTs are worse because you haven't confirmed their alignment.

But you aren't an IC! There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

I'm also surprised to hear that you lose your role once the captain died -- that wasn't my impression from reading the wiki article on captain -- but I've never seen the role played.

[Voltaire]

I went back and re-read everything that came after Galz's claim (well, within reason). Galz told sudgy to hold up on claiming, which sudgy was planning on doing. It makes complete sense that sudgy was planning to reveal that he was Captained. Galz, knowing he enables people, is perhaps anticipating that sudgy is going to reveal he is enabled and thinks it's more important to get his information out there first. Galz, is that what you were thinking?

Voltaire, which posts are you referencing?  Will save me some time in reading back.

It's all right before Galz claims. 288-315 mostly.

[Voltgloss]

Also Voltaire, for those of us who don't know the shows (like me), can you explain the mcmc-sudgy flavor connection?  I know sudgy's flavor is easily deducible from his "I'm looking for my pen" secondary wincon comments, so I don't think we're outing any more information by your explaining the flavor link you see.

[faust]

Well, I guess if you all want to showclaim, let's do it.

I'm from Modern Family.

[Voltaire]

There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

TA, I totally get still being suspicious of sudgy. His claim would be an amazing one for scum. But working through your thinking, how would you explain the below?

The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me.

[Eevee]

I think it's time for me to claim.

I'm a survivor, I win when any faction wins and I'm still alive.

I have been honest in my opinions and scumhunting like I was town. The only anti-town thing I've done is toning my activity down a bit to not seem like a good kill proposition. I think town is in a great shape, and I fully intend to do my best to help you guys win. I have no reason to hold anything back anymore - scum knows shooting me isn't going to be the best way to hurt town.

If you decide to keep me (which I think is what you should do), I promise to do rereads and put in effort like I was a real townie. You can quote this to prod me if I don't deliver.

[Voltaire]

Also Voltaire, for those of us who don't know the shows (like me), can you explain the mcmc-sudgy flavor connection?  I know sudgy's flavor is easily deducible from his "I'm looking for my pen" secondary wincon comments, so I don't think we're outing any more information by your explaining the flavor link you see.

Mcmc was Jeff. He bosses the group around. Captain, bam, easy. Britta (sudgy) is, at some points, timid/has a thing with Jeff. So Jeff captaining Britta is a picture-perfect flavor match.

[faust]

Also, note that if sudgy is telling the truth, then the mcmc-sudgy link increases swing in the way OPPOSITE to the Galz-shraeye link (assuming Galz is town).  By which I mean:

- If Galz is town, scum killing Galz is double-edged.  They kill a town player, but lose at least one of their power roles.

- If mcmc and sudgy are town, scum killing mcmc is a double benefit (for scum).  They kill a town player, AND the town loses ANOTHER power role.

I don't quite understand. Isn't killing mcmc in this case the same as killing a town PR? Lose a town player, lose a power. Of course that's not true if mcmc captained two or more town PRs. That would indeed be swingy.

[Twistedarcher]

TA, what about galz's second point - that efhw wanted yo lynch galz because of his claim?

Initially it does look like a fair point (I need to I reread what he's talking about when I'm not on my phone). However, as someone said, I wouldexpect scum to fall on multiple sides of any issue, including this one. So someone saying that galz should be killed would not make them close to confirmed townie.

This is wrong. The event of my lynch is not some arbitrary decision. There's no WIFOM to play because she couldn't know that Shraeye was going to die. The WIFOM that you're suggesting only makes sense post-death of Shraeye, when we can look back and say "scum wouldn't have pushed to hurt their own team". If Shraeye is still alive today, this conversation wouldn't be happening, and thus her stance to see me dead D1 makes no sense.

So you are saying that you fully expected the entire scum team to support not lynching you, and that it's not a possibility that one person on the team came in on the other side of the argument?

This is a LONG game. Most players are probably going to die because of it. Scum members taking a position with the view of "Eh, maybe Shraeye won't die, so we don't need to worry about something coming back to bite us" would be a short-sighted play by scum.

I'm pretty sure scum will come in on both sides of ANY issue, regardless of whether they agree with the point, disagree with the point, or don't care about the point. They want to confuse and separate themselves. I don't get how you can clear EFHW from being scum completely just because of one point she made on D1, especially when chances are, you weren't going to get lynched anyways.

The fact is, people were willing to switch to Mcmc at the end of the day, and the same people WEREN'T willing to switch to EFHW at the end of the day. This was also not a thought-out, planned thing -- this occurred at the end of the day when people were making snap decisions. The snap decisions of several players was to not move to EFHW, no matter what, but to be ok moving to Mcmc (specifically looking at Dsell here). This is a huge point against EFHW, and I'm not going to clear her from being scum just because of one opinion she had on D1 that turned out to be largely irrelevant anyways, since you never were close to being lynched.

[Twistedarcher]

There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

TA, I totally get still being suspicious of sudgy. His claim would be an amazing one for scum. But working through your thinking, how would you explain the below?

The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me.

I don't get what you're saying -- no one needs to claim. Mcmc, the captain, is already dead.

[Voltaire]

There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

TA, I totally get still being suspicious of sudgy. His claim would be an amazing one for scum. But working through your thinking, how would you explain the below?

The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me.

I don't get what you're saying -- no one needs to claim. Mcmc, the captain, is already dead.

But he wasn't, and there was no reason to think he would be, on D1 when this all happened.

[Voltaire]

There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

TA, I totally get still being suspicious of sudgy. His claim would be an amazing one for scum. But working through your thinking, how would you explain the below?

The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me.

I don't get what you're saying -- no one needs to claim. Mcmc, the captain, is already dead.

But he wasn't, and there was no reason to think he would be, on D1 when this all happened.

I think I spot the confusion. I'm talking about sudgy claiming to be Captained on D1, which I think is where he was clearly headed before Galz's claim.

[Twistedarcher]

So, when I saw my role I was thinking that if the Captain died I could easily be confirmed town as I'm the only person who the Captain would Captain.  I didn't think it all the way through though...

And, when I realized mcmc was the Captain, just blurted forth my unfinished thoughts.  Oh well, what's done is done.

I'm also not really following this part of it. Mcmc was the D1 lynch. Sudgy had all of N1 to think about this. He tried to explain away his claim by saying "Oh, I just wasn't thinking it through, I just blurted it out when I realized", but the fact is, Mcmc had flipped over 48 hours previously.

[Twistedarcher]

There's no reason that Mcmc couldn't have captained a scum role. It makes sense both ways, actually. Scum have a role that they can only 'unlock' once they kill the captain.

TA, I totally get still being suspicious of sudgy. His claim would be an amazing one for scum. But working through your thinking, how would you explain the below?

The only way I can see this not being the case is if sudgy has a suppressed role, that he can't use unless a certain townie is dead. But how he thinks claiming to be Captained could make the theoretical suppression townie reveal themselves is beyond me.

I don't get what you're saying -- no one needs to claim. Mcmc, the captain, is already dead.

But he wasn't, and there was no reason to think he would be, on D1 when this all happened.

I think I spot the confusion. I'm talking about sudgy claiming to be Captained on D1, which I think is where he was clearly headed before Galz's claim.

Oh, I see. Sorry about the confusion. I don't know, I need to go back and re-read that part of D1 before I can give you a better answer. The D2 part of it is fishy to me, especially the continually pushing that he should be an IC without any real proof part of it.

[Voltaire]

So, when I saw my role I was thinking that if the Captain died I could easily be confirmed town as I'm the only person who the Captain would Captain.  I didn't think it all the way through though...

And, when I realized mcmc was the Captain, just blurted forth my unfinished thoughts.  Oh well, what's done is done.

I'm also not really following this part of it. Mcmc was the D1 lynch. Sudgy had all of N1 to think about this. He tried to explain away his claim by saying "Oh, I just wasn't thinking it through, I just blurted it out when I realized", but the fact is, Mcmc had flipped over 48 hours previously.

He claimed in his second post D2, claiming he didn't spot that mcmc was the Captain at first. I believe that (reading the flip - "oh, mcmc's name is in green. Darn. Some flavor description of him, eh.". His second post was two hours after his first. It's quite plausible, especially if he submitted a night action he didn't actually have!

[faust]

I want to note something about sudgy claim: It could be perfectly correct, and he could still be scum. That would be sort of a negative utility role for scum, and of course they'd want to out the captain sooner rather than later.

Is this all likely? I don't know. sudgy didn't strike me as the player to go for such long-term plans (no offense).

[Voltaire]

I want to note something about sudgy claim: It could be perfectly correct, and he could still be scum. That would be sort of a negative utility role for scum, and of course they'd want to out the captain sooner rather than later.

Is this all likely? I don't know. sudgy didn't strike me as the player to go for such long-term plans (no offense).

Yes, but why would he claim to be Captained on D1?

[faust]

I want to note something about sudgy claim: It could be perfectly correct, and he could still be scum. That would be sort of a negative utility role for scum, and of course they'd want to out the captain sooner rather than later.

Is this all likely? I don't know. sudgy didn't strike me as the player to go for such long-term plans (no offense).

Yes, but why would he claim to be Captained on D1?

To out the Captain? IIRC, he tried to get both of them to half-claim.