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Author Topic: M31: Modern Community - Mafia + Survivor wins!  (Read 433931 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1725 on: September 26, 2013, 03:25:18 pm »

We also have at least one person whose role was pure negative utility - nkirbit, who was "Macho," which just means he can't be protected by a Doctor.

If town galz is also negative utility.
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Voltaire

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1726 on: September 26, 2013, 03:30:19 pm »

Chairs did try to get us to show claim yesterday. This is consistent with a semi-naive cop who wants to make sure he doesn't waste an investigation.
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Robz888

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1727 on: September 26, 2013, 03:30:27 pm »

Yeah, I think chairs's claim is perfectly reasonable.
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Robz888

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1728 on: September 26, 2013, 03:31:27 pm »

I mean I guess we probably can show claim then. We have a reason to do so--we might have reasons not to, but we don't know what they are.

Voltgloss should set the order.
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Dsell

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1729 on: September 26, 2013, 03:32:51 pm »

I'm in support of showclaim.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1730 on: September 26, 2013, 03:33:53 pm »

Yeah, I agree.  I think chairs' claim is reasonable and it makes sense to do this.  I will set up an order.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1731 on: September 26, 2013, 03:38:24 pm »

I am curious to know voltaires 8 people he knows the shows of before all the claiming is done.
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Voltaire

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1732 on: September 26, 2013, 03:41:26 pm »

I am curious to know voltaires 8 people he knows the shows of before all the claiming is done.

And I will happily provide, whenever the IC wants it in his order.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1733 on: September 26, 2013, 03:44:04 pm »

I am curious to know voltaires 8 people he knows the shows of before all the claiming is done.

And I will happily provide, whenever the IC wants it in his order.

I was just about to post on that.

Voltaire, please list those 8 people, but NOT what you expect their shows to be or how you know their shows.
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Voltaire

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1734 on: September 26, 2013, 03:45:58 pm »

Voltaire, please list those 8 people, but NOT what you expect their shows to be or how you know their shows.

myself
Voltgloss
TA
sudgy
Walrus
AHoppy
bocaJ
Jorbles
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faust

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1735 on: September 26, 2013, 03:47:48 pm »

I still have a bad feeling about this. Shouldn't we at least wait until everyone has seen this? Show claiming is beneficial for chairs, but it might be detrimental to someone else. And this day is far from over; we still have time.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1736 on: September 26, 2013, 04:10:18 pm »

Voltaire, please list those 8 people, but NOT what you expect their shows to be or how you know their shows.

myself
Voltgloss
TA
sudgy
Walrus
AHoppy
bocaJ
Jorbles

I guess I have all of those except for ahoppy and bocaj which I assume is coming from his role. So this checks out to me, voltglosss. Not sure where ahoppy is from but I may have missed something
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1737 on: September 26, 2013, 04:11:15 pm »

And I don't have Voltaire but he has me so that also contributes to his count being higher than mine.
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EFHW

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1738 on: September 26, 2013, 04:13:36 pm »

I am semi-Naive.  I will never get guilty results on one of the shows, even if that person is guilty.

Hence my desire for a full show claim now, before it's obvious which show.
Why don't you just investigate those people whose show you already know?

wondering this too.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1739 on: September 26, 2013, 04:14:08 pm »

My list matches Voltaire's except for ahoppy.  (I actually have one other person who Voltaire didn't list.)

Voltaire, after ahoppy gives his showclaim, please let us know where you picked up on a clue to ahoppy's show.

faust, I've looked back and the only other person who voiced disagreement with the idea of showclaiming is Eevee.  So I'll list him first, so he can explain if he has some specific reason why we should not showclaim (as opposed to a nebulous "it might be bad" worry).

List coming next.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1740 on: September 26, 2013, 04:17:45 pm »

I am semi-Naive.  I will never get guilty results on one of the shows, even if that person is guilty.

Hence my desire for a full show claim now, before it's obvious which show.
Why don't you just investigate those people whose show you already know?

wondering this too.

EFHW, faust:  do you think chairs is scum, or do you think he's town but showclaiming is nevertheless a bad idea?
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EFHW

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1741 on: September 26, 2013, 04:19:12 pm »

I still have a bad feeling about this. Shouldn't we at least wait until everyone has seen this? Show claiming is beneficial for chairs, but it might be detrimental to someone else. And this day is far from over; we still have time.

I agree.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.  I want to think this through some more.

PPE: I'm not saying chairs is scum, but I want everything to add up.  If he has a counterpart, then show claiming might be a good idea.  I have to go now, but I want to think about this before I say I'm ok with it.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1742 on: September 26, 2013, 04:23:51 pm »

chairs, is the person you investigated on Voltaire's list of 8?  Don't say who it is - just "yes" or "no."
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faust

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1743 on: September 26, 2013, 04:39:54 pm »

EFHW, faust:  do you think chairs is scum, or do you think he's town but showclaiming is nevertheless a bad idea?
I believe it's reasonably likely that he is scum. As town, I think it wouldn't be the best move for him to claim. Now that he claimed, assuming he says the truth, we should probably show-claim. But I don't understand why he would claim as town.

Also, the problem is this: if he's town, he'll tell us one of his results and then probably die. If he's scum, it likely not him that takes use out of the showclaim, but one of his teammates. So we give them power until that unknown teammate dies. The risk of chairs being scum heavily outweighs the benefit we get if he is town.
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Voltgloss

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1744 on: September 26, 2013, 04:49:07 pm »

Why do you think it is reasonably likely that chairs is scum?  Just because he claimed?  If so, why do you think his claim isn't "the best move" if he is town?
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1745 on: September 26, 2013, 04:53:20 pm »

Hey everyone, time for a lunch break update.

A few people have hopped straightaway onto a Voltaire wagon. I still think he seems townier than most. Certainly he has been very active, and I feel like he is coming under undue fire for trying to be a team player. I still have my reservations of course (certainly I remember his support of me yesterday, which might be interpreted as suspicious), but I don't think he's the best place to park my vote. I think his vote for EFHW seems reasonable and I was actually thinking the same thing--she was the originator of the mcmc wagon, after coming out of hiding with an inappropriately detailed analysis of him. That, her sudden change in posting frequency after lurkers were coming under fire, and shraeye's validation of her seem to make a pretty good case. But Galzria's rebuttal made me give pause, and honestly especially with the revelation of whom Galz could have been possibly enabling, it increases my town read on Galz as well.

Quote from: AHoppy
Long and measured, that's something scum wants to do.  They want to cover everything, but they want to be slow and contemplative about it so they don't screw it up.  Flurry of posts is not their thing and getting their views out is less important than tripping up.  For town:  Tripping up is much less important than giving their views or voting.  So for now, I'm going to vote: walrus

Fair enough. For me, I just don't know what I'm doing 90% of the time, so I'd rather 'watch and learn' to some extent without lurking excessively. I could see how this might be considered a scummy attribute though. If I had a posse of scum to coach me, I would probably be acting more confidently!

Quote from: faust
Walrus: Sheeps Voltgloss (#955) and EFHW (#989) on the mcmc case. Looks like scum jumping the easy wagon.

...

Liopoil/Jorbles and Walrus seem most scummy from this.


As I remember, wasn't I the second person to vote for mcmc? And then I didn't change my vote after that? Hardly seems like "sheeping" to me. I was considering voting for sudgy, who had the largest non-nkirbit wagon at the time, but I decided against it.

Quote from: Faust
Last flip-reread. There wasn't as much to find as I'd hoped. The interactions:

Twistedarcher: In the beginning, shraeye and TA fight a little (#200, #563, #564), but later shraeye says he's getting „good vibes“ from TA (#830). Nothing after that. Doesn't look like scum bussing each other. Slight town read on TA for that.

Eevee: Has a town read on shraeye at the beginning, shraeye buddys Eevee for that. From that, Eevee look somewhat townie.

Sudgy: Votes for shraeye early, later shraeye votes for him. This situation looks much more like bussing than the TA thing. Slight scum read.

Walrus: starts out suspecting shraeye, ends with a town read on him. I could see scum or town do that. So null here.

Voltaire: He and shraeye fight a lot D1. It's perfectly likely that Voltaire killed shraeye. He could be vig or SK/second scum faction for that, I find vig less likely because given the size of this game, i expect two scum factions, and we don't have a third night kill. So scum read.

Liopoil/Jorbles: shraeye votes for him and then disappears, even though he knows that he's likely to be lynched and he could vote mcmc instead. This makes Jorbles look more townie.

EFHW: Gets defended by shraeye late D1. Leaning scum for that.

With this, I'm concluding my recurrent segment „flip analysis“, and hopefully can focus more on the things that are going on right now. I will also vote: Walrus as he came out looking the scummiest from this. Another thing I'm taking from this analysis is that Eevee is likely town.

So...you have a null read on me and a scum read on 3 others, and that makes me the scummiest? I mean, if you find me scummy you find me scummy, but your vote doesn't seem all too consistent with the rest of your post. What makes the scummiest exactly in your mind?

I have no problem showclaiming personally, because in fact you could have already deduced it, as Voltaire has confirmed it. Because so many people have claimed already, I think that mass showclaiming is not a bad idea right now, although I'm still not 100% on chairs. How many freakin' power roles are there floating around???
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chairs

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1746 on: September 26, 2013, 04:55:15 pm »

I am semi-Naive.  I will never get guilty results on one of the shows, even if that person is guilty.

Hence my desire for a full show claim now, before it's obvious which show.
Why don't you just investigate those people whose show you already know?

wondering this too.

Because if I start revealing results, it would become obvious which show I was targeting.

chairs, is the person you investigated on Voltaire's list of 8?  Don't say who it is - just "yes" or "no."

No.

faust

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1747 on: September 26, 2013, 04:56:32 pm »

Why do you think it is reasonably likely that chairs is scum?  Just because he claimed?  If so, why do you think his claim isn't "the best move" if he is town?
Because he will be killed, obviously. And like I already said, he could have just investigated the players with known flavor. His claim could have waited until at least D3.
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faust

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1748 on: September 26, 2013, 04:58:41 pm »

Because if I start revealing results, it would become obvious which show I was targeting.
You could still have urged us to showclaim before you reveal your results.
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chairs

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Re: M31: Modern Community (Day 2!)
« Reply #1749 on: September 26, 2013, 05:00:59 pm »

Why do you think it is reasonably likely that chairs is scum?  Just because he claimed?  If so, why do you think his claim isn't "the best move" if he is town?
Because he will be killed, obviously. And like I already said, he could have just investigated the players with known flavor. His claim could have waited until at least D3.

I believe that I did sufficient bread-crumbing D1 in my attempts to get a show-claim without hard-claiming my role so as to make it unlikely I would have survived to D3 without doctor support, regardless.
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