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23826

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: September 05, 2013, 07:25:15 am »

At least we still have our PRs. This is actually not the worst thing that could have happened.

Well, now it's D2 and some of us have additional information. They should consider whether a claim can help town. I thought about it and here's what I think:

People who probably should claim:

- a Cop with a guilty result
We get to take out one mafia for sure. The cop will then probably be killed at night, but that's worth it.

- a Tracker who investigated someone and got the result "Twistedarcher"
If the Tracker found someone who targeted TA this night, that person must be scum. Therefore, this is the same as a "guilty" result for a cop.

- Mafia Goon/Mafia Roleblocker
This would really help town, you know?

People who can consider claiming:

- a Cop with an "innocent" result
This gives us two ICs. So we know the two mafia are among five players, and our chances of lynching scum increase to 40%. I'm not sure whether it's worth it, but I tend towards not claiming.

- the Bulletproof Townie
This gives us an IC that cannot be killed at night, so we have a 2/6 chance of lynching scum rather than a 2/7 chance. It also makes it likelier for our other PR to hit something at night (they know they need not target the IC). Downside is it also makes it easier for the mafia to kill our other PR.

People who should not claim:
- everyone else.

23827

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: September 03, 2013, 09:37:43 am »

If you're around until the deadline, you could wait for Arche to post. If not, I would say you should just hammer.

23828

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: September 02, 2013, 09:50:39 pm »

So it seems we'll have a jon or Archetype lynch today. Jdaki, Box - are you okay with putting your vote on one of them? There's not much time left.

Note that you should wait to cast your final vote. We want to at least give them a chance to claim.

23829

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: September 01, 2013, 02:38:10 pm »

Right now, I'd like to keep Box alive - not because I think he's town, but because I'd like to reread his posts here with the additional information we have on D2. I believe it'll be much easier to tell which side he is on then.

I'd prefer to lynch one of the lurkers - because they didn't contribute much, a reread on D2 won't be all that helpful here. Archetype's lurking is more suspicious to me because he's a vet and knows that this is not helping town. Also, he starts to contribute again at the exact moment someone votes for him, which seems scummy. So, my vote remains for now, but I would switch to jon if needed.

23830

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: September 01, 2013, 11:05:31 am »

chairs, could you explain your scum list? It's quite different from mine. Especially, what makes Gveoniz scummy and TA townie in your eyes?

Also, I will Vote: Archetype now. I don't like this heavy lurking short before the deadline.

23831

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 29, 2013, 07:12:36 pm »

So, the weekend is coming (and I won't have a lot of time for mafia then), and on tuesday we must have a decision. I thought I'd share my reads on everybody here, maybe this will get things moving a bit. So here it goes, from most scum to most town:

Twistedarcher: This is mostly due to early-game behaviour. First he states that there was nothing to say on the setup, but as soon as I come up with my BP idea, he immediately gives an elaborate counter-argument. So it's likely that he's thought this through before, and not sharing your thoughts with everyone is scum tell for me. Also, because he's a vet, I'm weighing every suspicion against him heavier.

jon117killer: Heavy lurking, and if he posts at all, he barely says anything. Now he advocates no-lynch, something we already have dismissed earlier.

BoxOfDOG: Right now, I'm rather tending light scum, but it's definitely not a strong suspicion. What speaks for him is that his posts were consistent - he didn't change his attitude when he realized it could get him lynched. That is something I'd expect scum to do.

Jdaki: I'm mostly basing this on his "ohmygod, I don't want to take a position because of what others might think of me"-post. But I can also see that coming from a newbie town player.

Archetype: Hasn't posted for quite some time, and before that, the only thing he did was pushing the BoxOfDOG wagon. Pretty much a null read for me, though I would expect a vet townie to take more of a leading position.

Cuttlebone: Has not posted much, but all his posts seem quite reasonable. I'd like to see him make a more serious vote, but there's still time for that.

chairs: Pretty much the same as with Cuttlebone, only has been more active. I also feel that him not jumping one of the existing wagons and instead making a new case is rather townie. TA's suspicion on him for not being sure whether mafia has daychat doesn't strike me as convincing.

Gveoniz: I really get a feeling that he's town, though it's hard to properly explain. Well, nothing he said sounded suspicious, and he's contributed a fair amount.

faust: You know what? I'm town.

23832

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 29, 2013, 04:17:59 pm »

no-lynch

Because we have no Idea who anybody is at this point.

Did you even read through this thread? We've already discussed a no-lynch, and it is pretty clear that it won't benefit town. If you have any new arguments on this, please share. Else I will judge your vote as quite scummy.

23833

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 28, 2013, 09:57:02 pm »

Gveoniz, you are currently not voting for anybody. As we're slowly approaching the deadline, could you make your vote?

Also, Cuttlebone's vote is still from RVS. Do you have any suspicions on chairs or did you just forget to unvote?

And jon117killer, if your vote for TA was serious, you should probably make it bold, because otherwise it won't be counted. And while you're at it, could you state your reasons for this vote?

I feel like now everyone should vote for someone (except if you still believe no-lynch is a good idea - does anyone do that?) Being too careful about your vote is something I start seeing as scummy now, you are giving us nothing to analyze for the next day.

23834

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 28, 2013, 09:48:03 am »

The main reason that I'm not voting Box over Twistedarcher is that I'd prefer to lynch a vet today.

This is why: The mafia is more dangerous for us if there are experienced players in it. The worst-case scenario is two vets are scum (pretty unlikely). Having 1 vet and 1 newb is much likelier, and not much better for us; the vet can tell the newb how to act during the night, and it's almost as bad as having two mafia vets.

In both scenarios, taking out a vet could really help us. Should the mafia consist of two newbs, we can afford the mislynch.

In short, I'm suggesting some sort of Minimax strategy (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimax)

23835

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 28, 2013, 09:11:03 am »

Part of me wants to lynch the vets first on account of longer playtime for you new folks'd be mighty nice.

The bigger part wants to see what we can do about making town win.

vote: faust.

Faust, you've been quick to come to Box's rescue, even if only via "hey it's statistics man." Maybe you're feeling guilty because you know he's town, or maybe you just want the towncred for being right on a mislynch.  Either way, sniff test says:  scummy.

Oh, I didn't mean to come to anyone's rescue. Should we decide to lynch Box today, I'm fine with that. His posts definitely read scummier than most of the other's. I just want to talk a little about the other players.

Being fine with lynching Box is a different viewpoint than what you had earlier, when you thought he was town.

There were a couple of Box posts between me saying he was townie and now. I didn't like the way he reacted to my defense at all - buddying up with me (in fact putting me as the most likely town player) and at the same time following my vote. It just seems like a thing mafia would do to gain my trust. Because of that, my read on him is scummier than before.

23836

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 27, 2013, 07:28:22 pm »

Although on reading all the posts, my first thoughts were "why is faust defending BoxofDOG? Isn't that suspicious?" I then realise that if I say that, it seems like I'm defending TA, though I do feel like I should as I can't see that he was "pushing" anything against Box- if anything it was Archetype (and me) that found fault in his posts. But now it really seems like I'm in cahoots with TA by saying faust might be in league with Box and man this game is giving me a headache!

Why are you caring so much about what we could think of you? Someone might say that's a rather scummy trait...

(I hope I didn't cause your headache to grow stronger with this  )

23837

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 27, 2013, 07:25:51 pm »

Part of me wants to lynch the vets first on account of longer playtime for you new folks'd be mighty nice.

The bigger part wants to see what we can do about making town win.

vote: faust.

Faust, you've been quick to come to Box's rescue, even if only via "hey it's statistics man." Maybe you're feeling guilty because you know he's town, or maybe you just want the towncred for being right on a mislynch.  Either way, sniff test says:  scummy.

Oh, I didn't mean to come to anyone's rescue. Should we decide to lynch Box today, I'm fine with that. His posts definitely read scummier than most of the other's. I just want to talk a little about the other players.

23838

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 27, 2013, 02:07:01 pm »

Yeah, I didn't mean that Box is any likelier to be town than the rest of us. But it's still only a 2/9 chance.

23839

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 27, 2013, 11:22:07 am »

All this talk about whether or not BoxOfDOG is mafia or not is leading us nowhere. He might be, but if so, I highly doubt that we'll get any evidence on that. It's pretty likely however that he is town. If so, we spend an awful lot of time focusing on a single town member. This is exactly the kind of thing the mafia likes to see: We discuss about BoxOfDOG the whole time, then eventually lynch him, he flips town, and at D2, there's not much to analyze - we didn't get any closer to finding the real scum.

I still like my vote on Twistedarcher. He was the main force pushing this whole BoxOfDOG thing. That, together with his early-game behaviour, says scum for me.

23840

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 26, 2013, 10:03:21 am »

Also, when he argued for no-lynch earlier, he seemed to always take it for granted that there's a bulletproof townie, and I believe it's possible that this is his role. If so, it would probably be a good idea to claim that (well, I still think it would have been a good idea to claim right from the start, but now with this wagon on him it definitely is).

So BoxOfDOG, are you bulletproof?

23841

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 26, 2013, 09:56:00 am »

Well, BoxOfDOG, I don't really think you're scum. All this unhelpful and rude behaviour here makes me want to vote for you anyway.

For now my vote stays where it is, but man, you're not making this easy for me.

Don't vote for him if you don't think he's scum!

But why don't you think he is scum?

Well, I agree with you that the no-lynch idea isn't necessarily scummy. And what's happened since then - the "I'm not scum" defense, putting Cuttlebone at L-1 - I just think a scum player would be more careful here. What he's doing puts all the attention on him, and while that's probably not good play for a townie, it's even worse play for a scum player.

23842

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 26, 2013, 02:02:19 am »

Well, BoxOfDOG, I don't really think you're scum. All this unhelpful and rude behaviour here makes me want to vote for you anyway.

For now my vote stays where it is, but man, you're not making this easy for me.

23843

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 25, 2013, 06:42:08 pm »

Of course, the benefit of lynching is also that might hit mafia - even if we assume it's completely random, there's a 2/9 chance that we do. And given that the outcome of no-lynch is pretty much the same as the outcome of a mislynch, we should totally try to hit mafia.

23844

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 25, 2013, 06:29:59 pm »

Well, lets think about this..

If we were to no lynch, we would lose one person, or no people if they shot the bulletproof.

If we do lynch, then we will very likely kill off a townie, and in the end we'll be losing two people.
No Lynch:
Possible bulletproof mistake
Only losing 1 if someone is shot
You get just as much information as you do when there IS a lynch.

Lynch:
You lose two people no matter what you do
You practically get even less information
One of the ONLY benefits being people's reaction to being voted on

Well, the problem is this: suppose, for simplicity, that one townie is killed each night.

Scenario where we mislynch D1:

By the start of the next day, 5 townies and 2 scum are left. If we mislynch again, we have 3 townies/2 mafia D3, and another mislynch loses the game.

Scenario where we no-lynch D1:

By the start of the next day, 6 townie and 2 scum are left. If we mislynch here, we have 4 townies/2 mafia D3 - again, another mislynch loses the game. So we are in no better position at all.

The benefit from lynching is that we have some interactions, accusations etc. - people's reactions to the game. You act as though these were not important, but for most of us - all those who don't have PRs - they're the only thing there is to decide whether or not a player is mafia.

23845

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 24, 2013, 06:23:25 am »

I also voted you pretty randomly, but I didn't really give you any town cred for asking the question about a BP townie. I thought it made you less likely to be that role, actually (not that you couldn't be another PR!), if it even exists.

Having an IC is nice, but I don't know if the upside is bigger than the downside to a claim. It may actually be better to push off the claim until D2 -- that way, he's very likely going to be around at the end of the game. What do you think about that? Scum would be more likely to counterclaim D2 than D1, though.

I think claiming should be D1 or not at all. Pushing the claim to D2 gives the mafia one night to coordinate themselves, and I'd rather hit them unprepared. And I mean, with a D1 claim it's definitely possible that the BP townie is dead by D3, but this means the mafia only gets one kill in two nights, and they can't kill our other PR until D3 (lynching aside), so I don't think the mafia would really want to go for the kill.

23846

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 24, 2013, 06:12:46 am »

Well, the obvious thing is we are less likely to mislynch, as we already know that the IC is town. And we have a player around whom we can trust.

It's also a benefit for our PRs - they can search for a good target more efficiently. In this particular setup, assuming we have a bulletproof townie, we have either a Tracker or a Jailkeeper. The Tracker wants to target scum, which is easier when they know who isn't. The Jailkeeper could choose to target the IC to save them once their Bulletproof-ness is gone.

23847

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 23, 2013, 09:26:44 pm »

Oh, by the way, in case this isn't clear already: If you know that there is no bulletproof townie in this setup, do NOT say so. It will expose you as PR.

And, to answer Archetype's question: I guess I slightly prefer being mafia to being town. It's just so much fun to have more information than the others and figure out a way to use this to your advantage. Still, I'd probably prefer a town PR to being mafia.

@Twistedarcher: I certainly agree that the mafia gets a small advantage from this, but the town's advantage (having an IC from day 1) is better than that IMO. I mean, if scum fakeclaims a role that two of us know can't be in the game (and that has a fairly small chance of happening anyway), for us to figure that out would mean that both our PRs have two (indirectly) claim. I'm not even sure we'd want to do that in this situation.

23848

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 23, 2013, 09:07:50 pm »

Unfortunately, not a lot to say on the setup -- it seems pretty straightforward. To our PRs, obviously you want to stay hidden as well as possible, and to not give yourself away unless you are sure you've caught scum, or if you're about to be lynch.

Vote - Faust because why not!

I really disagree with this post. And I don't mean the vote on me (of course I also disagree with that), but the fact that there's "not a lot to say on the setup".

Certainly for most of our PRs, claiming would be a bad move. Yet I don't think that is true for all of them. I think it might be a good idea if the bulletproof townie (BT) claims. Unlike all other PRs, they don't need to fear to be night killed, and the claim would basically give us an IC and information on which roles actually are in this game. Also, it would really suck if we lynched a BT. But if there is one around - don't claim just yet. I'd like to know how the more experienced players here view this plan.

That said - Twistedarcher's behaviour till now seems rather suspicious to me. Reasons are these:
- he didn't point out what I just said, just saying the PRs should remain hidden. I think an experienced player would have at least considered it. So maybe he did and just decided a BT claim would be bad for his team.
- he voted for me. This argument may look like OMGUS, but consider this: my first real action here was asking a question about BT and roleblocking. It's really likely for this question to come from the BT. And a BT is the one player mafia wants to gets lynched the most - because they can't just night kill them.

So I'm going to make my first non-RVS vote.

Vote: Twistedarcher

23849

Mafia Game Threads / Re: NewMafia IV (Day 1 Starts)

« on: August 23, 2013, 09:01:14 am »

I have played before, but never online.

23850

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXX: King's Court-Goons-Masquerade Mafia. Signups Open! (7/10)

« on: August 22, 2013, 11:18:28 pm »

/in