Really liking the fast start this game has gotten . I'm already re-reading! (well, that's mostly because I kinda skimmed to catch up.)
I think some of us were in mafia game withdrawal and now we're compensating!
That's me for sure.
I really doubt there is a traitor. 4/12 players being anti-town is really tough.
4/12 would be insanely hard, given 3/12 is already though, as I noted earlier.
At 4/12, can we even mislynch twice? 4 vs 8 becomes 4 vs 6 on D2 if we mislynch and mafia NKs. A mislynch and NK puts it at 4 vs 4, and we lose. I mean, it can't be 4 scum in 12. It wouldn't be fair.
yeah, even 3/12 is tough. according to
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=The_EV_Project, in a game with 3 goons and 9 VTs town only has a 16.4% chance of winning. and believe it or not, even with just TWO scum, town still only has a 35.2% chance. (this is given random lynch).
Also, worth noting, that if the following it true, No Lynch D1 is strictly the best strategy:
-There is no chance of more than one kill in a night (No vigs, SK, vengeful, lovers, etc.)
-There is no chance of a kill being prevented (doc, Roleblocker, JK, etc.)
Chances are very good that one of the above exists though, and if they don't we have no way of knowing it, so we absolutely should not No Lynch D1.