yuma, if you weren't you, which theory would strike you as more convoluted? I'm inclined to think yours.
Good question:
So yours is basically that:
1. yuma is scum
2. his buddies won't buss
3. because if they do they lose their advantage over town
4. therefore 2 of the players not voting for yuma must be scum
5. so I am now stuck at only 4 votes and they are hoping a townie breaks ranks.
(note that there are some flaws here, for example, that I am town, and that there still are two townies not voting for me, why are they not voting for me?)
Mine is basically that:
1. a wagon formed on me
2. scum wanted to stay off it to get town cred
3. scum expressed a town read on me
4. and now can't go back on their read
5. so I am now stuck at only 4 votes and they are hoping a townie breaks ranks.
They actually look very similar to me, and interestingly enough come to the same conclusion. That people not voting for are more likely to be scum than those that are. I think the only difference is that in my scenario I see it most likely that there is 1 scum on the wagon and probably 2 off. Whereas you see it as I am scum and there are probably 2 off.
In summary: we have a better chance of finding and lynching scum if we vote for people currently off my wagon.