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[Hugovj]

That's quite easy to say. If you were scum, you'd also say that. So yeah.

[silverspawn]

I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.

What's a PR?

a PR is a player role (PPE that). And there is either one or two town PR's total in this setup, so that's a pretty big claim.

Pit, you never hammer someone without giving him a chance to claim his role. I don't like that Hydrad had to claim already, but well it happened. I think that's enough for us not to lynch him today, either that or we request that he claims his actual role. The advantage of that is that another town can counterclaim, and if Hydrad is scum, we kill him right there. Getting scum day1 would be huge. The disadvantage is, more info for scum. I think I'll come back to that later.

Don't hammer Hydrad now. Whoever hammers is auto scum.

[mpsprs]

Don't feel pigeonholed if you don't want to vote for any of them, there's plenty of time for alternate wagon. I talked about them in my latest posts because they're the only one's with votes on them right now, and happen to be some of my top lynch choices. But either of those things could change.

Thanks for the encouragement.  I will look at others too, and if I prefer another, I'll at least try to make a case.

[Hydrad]

That's quite easy to say. If you were scum, you'd also say that. So yeah.

It is. Until we claim and then I'll have to claim first most likely. And when I do that unless I get super lucky and guess a role that works with the other people that have power roles I get lynched right away. So it something that is a really high risk for scum to say this early.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.

[Hugovj]

I agree with ADK, without the specific role, there's nothing to go on.

[silverspawn]

I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.

Wait. Wait. Let me do an analysis here. Maybe it's better if he keeps his role a secret.

[silverspawn]

We have to determine how helpful it is for scum to know the exact role.

[Hydrad]

I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.

I'll gladly say it first when we claim. But I think me keeping quiet for at least the first NK is really importent. That way lets say there is a doctor in this setup. Scum might waste teir shot on me since they don't know the setup if a doctor heals me. I feel like letting scum know what setup we are in on night one is really bad. And unless everyone wants me to claim I think I should wait.

[Qvist]

So now this is interesting. To me it looks like he is scum grasping at straws rather than being an actual Power Role. I agree that we need to hear his actual power role.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't think it's likely that they get an advantage. If they have the Roleblocker, they'll block him (if he's not lying). If they don't, they'll probably just kill him.

PPE: Maybe that's right, let me look at the setup.

[Hugovj]

PPE? Can't find it in the lingo list.

[mpsprs]

PPE? Can't find it in the lingo list.

Pre-post edit.  Usually means you wrote the post, then when you went to post it, you read new things that people had just posted, and made an addendum to your post.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Pre-post edit. People posted stuff while I was writing my post, so I wrote more stuff to take that into account. You get a red warning box.

Looking at the setup, I realize that there might be an advantage to keeping a PR hidden. So I'm willing to let Hydrad live for now, if he's scum he'll get caught in the lie eventually.

vote: pit that's L-1.

PPE: Like that!

[Qvist]

Now that he claimed a Power Role and let's assume he's actually right, that means he's likely going to get killed by mafia this night anyway, right? So, the benefit of knowing that he has a power role is not great. There is only one scenario where it might be helpful I can think of. But before I mention that, I like to hear him claim.

[A Drowned Kernel]

If he's not the doctor and there is a doctor, he could be protected.

[silverspawn]

This is actually kinda complicated, even with such a simple setup. we have to differ between a whole bunch of cases.

The Setup:
#1: JK
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
#3: BP, Tracker
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
#5: Cop
#6: Doctor, Tracker

(JK = Jailkeeper, BP = 1-shot Bulletproof). Goons and Vanilla townies excluded. Roels are Town unless I write Mafia before them):

Let's say he does not claim. How much does scum know about the setup? There is only one possible scum role, which is roleblocker. So scum either knows we're in #2/4, or we're in #1/3/5/6.

If we're in #1/3/5/6, then there is a 12,5% chance for a non-Hydrad doctor. This is essential, because a doctor is a good reason for scum not to NK Hydrad. There is also a 12,5% chance that Hydrad is BP, in which case scum probably doesn't want to shoot him. But he could also be Tracker (2), JK, and most importantly, Cop. So, I think scum will just shoot him.

If we're in #2/4, there is a 50% chance that Hydrad can be protected, and also a 25% chance that he is BP. So, scum probably doesn't shoot him here.

So, if Hydrad doesn't claim, I think there is a 2/3 chance that he will be shot.

[xxpittip]

I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.

You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?

Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.

(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)

[xxpittip]

How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.

You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?

Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.

(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)

Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.

PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.

[mpsprs]

So, if Hydrad doesn't claim, I think there is a 2/3 chance that he will be shot.

The math seems fine to me (there are some WIFOM scenarios-but those are necessarily hard to quantify).

But this doesn't take into account the possibility that Hydrad is scum fake-PR-claiming.  So there is somewhere under a 2/3 chance that he will be night-killed.

How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?

Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.

PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.

I don't think hammering in and of itself I don't think is especially scummy.  It's the show up and threaten to hammer quickly with 3 days left that is a bit more scummy.  Not as scummy as actually just hammering

[silverspawn]

The Setup:
#1: JK
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
#3: BP, Tracker
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
#5: Cop
#6: Doctor, Tracker
(JK = Jailkeeper, BP = 1-shot Bulletproof). Goons and Vanilla townies excluded. Roels are Town unless I write Mafia before them):

Now let's say he claims.

#1: JK
In this case it does not matter whether he claims, because scum would have shot either way, and Hydrad would have died either way.

#3: BP, Tracker
a) BP. If he claims BP, claiming is bad, because now scum doesn't shoot him. (1/12)
b) Tracker. If he claims Tracker, scum knows that there's now 50% chance for a doctor, so they probably don't shoot. In this case, claiming is good (1/12)

#5: Cop
In this case it does not matter whether he claims, because scum would have shot either way, and Hydrad would have died either way.

#6: Doctor, Tracker
a) Doctor. Scum shoots for sure, but probably would have shot anyway
b) Tracker. Akin to #3. Scum knows there's now 50% chance for a doctor, so they won't shoot (probably). In this case, claiming is bad, because they would have shot (and no-killed, because Hydrad could have been doctored) otherwise. (1/12)

#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
a) Cop. Scum knows the setup. Scum will not shoot. But they would not have shot anyway.
b) Doctor. Scum knows the setup. Scum will shoot. They would not have shot otherwise. Claiming is bad (1/12)

#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
a) JK. Scum knows the setup. Scum will shoot. They would have have shot otherwise. Claiming is bad (1/12)
b) BP. Scum knows the setup. Scum will not shoot. But they would not have shot anyway.

So, overall, we have 4/12 bad, 1/12 good for a claim, and 7/12 no difference.

But that's jsut assuming he is town. If he is scum, it looks completely different. And I guess he could even be a VT fakeclaiming a PR to survive. Though that'd be very un-Hydradish, so I think we can assume that's not the case

PPE 4

[xxpittip]

I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.

You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?

Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.

(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)

Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.

PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.

Ofc i didn't know that he would tell us about being a PR, but i knew that he would react to a threat like that and every reaction gives us information (in most cases not this much, but imo every bit of information counts).
The fact that i'm now at L-1 just underlines my point about being scared of attracting suspicion...

[silverspawn]

and it's also assuming Hydrad didn't think anything about the setup when he said he has a PR (and therefore all cases have equal probability) and it doesn't take into account how good or bad something is.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'm sold on keeping Hydrad alive for now. If he's alive tomorrow, we should probably have him full claim before anything else happens.