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[Hydrad]

hmm in light of these recent posts I think pit has moved above Qvist in scummyness. Also if SS is town I think there is a high chance that pit could be scum. I've found SS's reads to generally be on point and don't know if I've seen him this sure about someone. I also feel like if SS was scum he might try to push a mislynch on someone else to keep his friend in the game?

Actually that last point might not make sense as he could also be scum and just using an excuse that he knows pit and that this isn't what he would do to try and get us to lynch him.

But at the moment I have a townier read on SS so I'm kinda willing to trust him on pit.

I still have a bad feeling about andrew. But actually I'm not sure if I've ever played a game other then a bastard game with andrwe. So maybe its because I'm not used to him? Sorry andrew I know this is such a flimsy reason but I've just got this gut feeling your scum.

[A Drowned Kernel]

mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.

This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.

One thing about Silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.

[silverspawn]

One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.

I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.

[A Drowned Kernel]

One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.

I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.

I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.

[silverspawn]

One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.

I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.

I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.

exactly. which is not very likely.

[mpsprs]

mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.

This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.

I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing.  Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early.  So it could just be his thing.  At the very least, it's consistent.

mpsrps (murps?): I've been doing the opposite of defending of Hydrad, I feel fine with my vote currently on him.

I went back and looked, and I have no idea what I was looking at.  And looking again, I still have no idea what I was looking at.  Just reading too quickly I guess. 

[Awaclus]

One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.

I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.

I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.

Initially it was as likely as any other scum team, but now we have information. It's hard to say how much exactly that information makes certain scum teams more likely or less likely, but at this point, some possible scum teams seem unlikely while others are not so much unlikely.

I'm not sure if SS/Pit is one of those less unlikely teams. Pit is somewhat scummy now in my opinion, so SS calling him scummy doesn't necessarily mean that they're staging a conflict. It could mean that, but it also could mean that SS is town and just trying to find the scum, or scum with someone else. It's still very difficult to say anything about SS in a vacuum in my opinion, but the fact that a few others appear to be more scummy than him makes me think that he's probably town (does this reasoning make any sense at all?).

[scott_pilgrim]

Vote Count 1.6:

Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
AndrewisFTTW (2): Hugovj, Hydrad
xxpittip (2): silverspawn, mpsprs
mpsprs (1): xxpittip

Not voting (1): Awaclus

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.

[xxpittip]

mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.

This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.

I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing.  Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early.  So it could just be his thing.  At the very least, it's consistent.

I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.

[xxpittip]

mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.

This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.

I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing.  Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early.  So it could just be his thing.  At the very least, it's consistent.

I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.

(And now mpsprs)

[Hugovj]

I don't really get all the votes on Pit. I think it's true that everybody should say something, otherwise how could we ever find a scum, but I don't think he is suspicious enough to put at L-2 already.

Also, Hydrad:

I still have a bad feeling about andrew. But actually I'm not sure if I've ever played a game other then a bastard game with andrwe. So maybe its because I'm not used to him? Sorry andrew I know this is such a flimsy reason but I've just got this gut feeling your scum.

This is rather weird. I mean, we're playing with newbies here, so obviously you aren't used to anybody. I feel like this is a very strange way to stop Andrew from getting into an argument with you, which could make you more suspicious than you already are.

I'm going to
Unvote
because I'd rather vote for Hydrad. Don't know whether I want to put him on L-1 already though.

[mpsprs]

I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.

I looked back, and this is true.  I was thinking of when SS taught me about OMGUS (your post 147, and SS's reply, post 150).  So you didn't actually vote for SS, but your reaction was similar.  Someone calls you out for not participating, your response is to show up and claim that person is scummy.

Your vote for Andrew is clearly not for a serious reason (I hope), so I'm discounting it.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Checking in, I'll have a longer post later today.

Hydrad first you think I'm scummy for switching my vote a lot (which in my opinion isn't true). Now you say it's just a gut feeling. Which is it?

I'd hold off on L-1 but some people feel differently about it than me.

[mpsprs]

I don't really get all the votes on Pit. I think it's true that everybody should say something, otherwise how could we ever find a scum, but I don't think he is suspicious enough to put at L-2 already.

I'm not one to throw my vote around, but it is really the only weapon we have.  If someone is not responding, we should apply some pressure.  That certainly does not mean lynching, and L-2 is not particularly close to a lynch (as we've discussed earlier) this early in the process. 

But we did at least get some response.  I'm still not especially happy with xxpittip's play, but for the time being I will

Unvote

We are now ~5 days from the deadline.  So we need to start working out who will be the lynch.  I would prefer not to do so in a panic in the last few hours-as Hydrad said:

When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

because I'd rather vote for Hydrad. Don't know whether I want to put him on L-1 already though.

There's no reason not to, as long as you announce it.

[Hydrad]

Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.

as for my reasonings on andrew it started out because he vote swapped a couple times. Which is fine but I just got a bad feeling from them. And since then I just have a gut feeling on him. On day 1 its hard for evidence to arise so I usually end up trusting my gut a bit more.

[Hydrad]

We are now ~5 days from the deadline.  So we need to start working out who will be the lynch.  I would prefer not to do so in a panic in the last few hours-as Hydrad said:

When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town.

This game is actually going at a decent pace. Not super fast like some games but doesn't seem to be completely stalling either. And we have some good wagons right now. So I'm not to worried about where this game is going right now at least.

[mpsprs]

This game is actually going at a decent pace. Not super fast like some games but doesn't seem to be completely stalling either. And we have some good wagons right now. So I'm not to worried about where this game is going right now at least.

I agree, but it did slow down a bit once we got off the weekend.  While we're both on, perhaps I can ask you a question.  I get that on day one, we will have to go by gut feel to some extent (unless we get very lucky and scum slips badly).  But I'd still like to try and flesh out your gut feeling.

Here is where you stated your top 3 (and voted for Andrew).

reasons for my top 3:

Qvist: hasn't posted much and most of his posts don't have a ton of content. But its still early day 1 so its really hard to come up with content right now. Probaably my weakest of the 3.

ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.

Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.

It seems to me that your reasons for ADK and Andrew are more or less opposites.  Does that bother you any?  Can you explain the discrepancy, or is "gut" all you have.  Maybe that's out of character for both of them?  They've both defended the claims-Andrew that several of those votes were during RVS, and ADK that this is his usual style.  Andrew's we can look at, and seems true.  ADK, I don't know about, since I'm a noob.  But it also seems plausible (and as I mentioned in my crazy long post, I get a slightly town vibe from ADK-which is still, admittedly largely gut).

Or maybe there's something else you can point to to explain your gut feeling?

[Qvist]

Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.

I don't understand your playstyle. Why do you want that you are L-1? If you are town, it's not beneficial for town. If you are scum, it's also not beneficial for scum. I can't see how you want to be at L-1!?

[Hydrad]

Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.

I don't understand your playstyle. Why do you want that you are L-1? If you are town, it's not beneficial for town. If you are scum, it's also not beneficial for scum. I can't see how you want to be at L-1!?

No I don't want to be at L-1. But I'm trying to let him know that he shouldn't be afriad to put people at L-1. If he feels like he wants to vote for me and the only thing thats stopping him is because it would put me on L-1 I'm just letting him know he should still do it. Obviously I don't want to get lynched though I'm just trying to give some advice out.

(which you should apparently not take to seriously as I seem to be playing poorly this game)

[Hydrad]

Or maybe there's something else you can point to to explain your gut feeling?

Hmm I guess to explain my gut feeling would be I look at peoples posts and try to get what kinda tone they are speaking in through text would be the best way to explain it. Overall there is very little logic in my gut feeling so its not the most trustworthy thing. But I've kinda grown to trust mine a bit more as in my first game dice mafia I ended up finding almost all the scum with just gut feeling. I would constantly post how my logic says its this person but my gut says this person. I never really had a reason to go with the gut feeling but I would always end up voting them anyways.

So in general I would say whenever I try to follow my logic I end up getting tricked by scum. But when I follow my gut I have a higher success rate. So thats kinda what I'm going for here. I'm sorry that this doesn't help you out much but hopefully this explains most of your questions?

[mpsprs]

I'm sorry that this doesn't help you out much but hopefully this explains most of your questions?

No that's helpful.  Thanks for answering.  As a newbie, I don't have any experience to see if my gut is any good, and my instinct is to go with logic.  It's good to hear that gut can work sometimes too .

[scott_pilgrim]

Vote Count 1.7:

Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
AndrewisFTTW (1): Hydrad
xxpittip (1): silverspawn
mpsprs (1): xxpittip

Not voting (3): Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.

[silverspawn]

Reread of Pit:

116: Makes a joke about pushups being bad and votes for Andrew. Scum QT: "Hey, you should probably throw some votes around early, to fake confidence"

147: says he has to keep lurking because I accuse him of lurking. good excuse

148: makes a joke about my avatar. as if he doesn't know the flavor

158: says he doesn't know enough about everyone to make good cases. that's pretty legit.

237: posts somewhat of an excuse for lurking and a reads list that includes 4 people. says the rest will follow.

239: continues the list, votes for mpspers

241+: talks about probabilities but messes things up pretty bad. Then he posts this:

Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.

Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1

Town had to confirm their roles via pm. But for scum, maybe it's enough to post in their QT's. Maybe pit didn't know that town has to confirm via pm, because he just confirmed in his QT? Maybe he just forgot to confirm altogether, but the mods didn't do anything because he was otherwise active in his QT?

As Awaclus tells him that he has to respond via PM, he answers "ofc it isnt true, but in theory i could have replied without reading the PM." Well, that would be cheating, wouldn't it?

258/259: posts a short answer to mpspers

And that's all. Total vote count: 11

[silverspawn]

So, the case is for lurking, for (in my mind) uncharacteristic responses, and for his scum slip. I also don't like how his first post in this thread is a joke. I can't help feeling like this is mentored!nooby!scum!pit.

So, in my mind, he's like ~50% scum. That's higher than everyone else, so that's where I'll keep my vote for now.