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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 161136 times)

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1325 on: November 30, 2012, 10:32:46 am »

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.
Or when you shouldn't have.  Whats burned in my brain is the last theory discussion before you claimed said if cop were to claim solo, we have a 40% chance to win.

40% is wrong when the Cop has a result today.  I knew the odds were better.  So did scum.  No one else did.  I wanted to see how people reacted.  I'll redo the math to show what the real odds are with the Cop claiming today.

Contradiction: earlier when you claimed you said you claimed to release pressure from CF since I wasn't unvoting, it had nothing to do with odds.

What post are you referencing?
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1326 on: November 30, 2012, 10:34:35 am »

Because you are devious
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1327 on: November 30, 2012, 10:36:45 am »

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.
Or when you shouldn't have.  Whats burned in my brain is the last theory discussion before you claimed said if cop were to claim solo, we have a 40% chance to win.

40% is wrong when the Cop has a result today.  I knew the odds were better.  So did scum.  No one else did.  I wanted to see how people reacted.  I'll redo the math to show what the real odds are with the Cop claiming today.

Contradiction: earlier when you claimed you said you claimed to release pressure from CF since I wasn't unvoting, it had nothing to do with odds.

I found the post you are referencing.  It doesn't talk about odds one way or the other.  And you're right, the odds weren't the compelling reason why I claimed.  I'm talking about odds now because you asked about it

With pressure on CF, and my knowing CF was town, the ACTUAL odds of town mislynching were a lot higher than random chance would dictate - unless I claimed.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1328 on: November 30, 2012, 10:37:42 am »

Because you are devious

Now I know how Robz feels when he gets mislynched as a power role Day 1.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1329 on: November 30, 2012, 10:54:33 am »

I'm back online for about 30 minutes. Quick reread of ~5 pages now.

Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1330 on: November 30, 2012, 10:58:11 am »

Qvist - who do you think is volts partner?

I'm not totally sure. I'm pretty sure it's not yuma (because of the yuma bandwagon) and definitely not Axxle (I think this is obvious). You're cleared.
Who's left? TheMunch or ashersky. TheMunch made the quickhammer and I don't know what to think about this, but I think that he might actually be town. So probably ashersky.

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1331 on: November 30, 2012, 10:58:19 am »

@themunch - its the final play of the game, you have to make a pick.. yOU have 10 seconds - who is your scumteam?

No Seriously.

VG/Ash but I'm very uncomfortable about who VG's scumbuddy is.

So what has changed your mind, given that you were ready to vote qvist last night?
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1332 on: November 30, 2012, 11:01:04 am »

Remember Qvist's response to my massclaim proposal.

On top of all of that, notice how Qvist completely ignored weighing in on my massclaim proposal. 
Sorry, I didn't ignore it. I just don't know if this is a good idea. And I tried to evaluate that, but had a hard time. But I think you brought up a valid point, it might work, but is really risky.

Would you expect a Town Cop to give such a lukewarm no-response response?

This is part of WHY I wanted to have discussion of massclaim.  So that if scum fakeclaimed me, they would have already gone on record in a way that undermines their fakeclaim.

I'm not actually sure what you mean with lukewarm no-response response, but I didn't post because I wasn't sure about the odds. You criticized me for that and then I clarified. Now you're critizing me for responding. !?

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1333 on: November 30, 2012, 11:02:10 am »


I'm not actually sure what you mean with lukewarm no-response response, but I didn't post because I wasn't sure about the odds. You criticized me for that and then I clarified. Now you're critizing me for responding. !?

I'm pointing out that your response is not consistent with your (fake)claimed role.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1334 on: November 30, 2012, 11:02:24 am »

Ok:

Without voting, I'd like each person to weigh in on QVist vs. Voltgloss.  You must also pick their scum buddy.

Yuma: Prefers Qvist.  No scumbuddy read.
Axxle: Thins its Volt / Asher
TheMunch: After prodding: Volt / Asher
Asher: Has not answered.  At all.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1335 on: November 30, 2012, 11:04:46 am »

QVist, I know that english isn't you're language, so you're at a disadvantage to Volt "The Situation" Gloss here, but I'd really appreciate it if you can try to respond to Volt's case, and explain why you feel that his claim is false, and why it took you 45 minutes to decide to come forward with your claim.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1336 on: November 30, 2012, 11:05:04 am »

QVist, I know that english isn't your language, so you're at a disadvantage to Volt "The Situation" Gloss here, but I'd really appreciate it if you can try to respond to Volt's case, and explain why you feel that his claim is false, and why it took you 45 minutes to decide to come forward with your claim.

/facepalm
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1337 on: November 30, 2012, 11:05:16 am »

Before I get critized again for responding so slow: Phone call.

Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1338 on: November 30, 2012, 11:11:19 am »

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1339 on: November 30, 2012, 11:12:43 am »

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1340 on: November 30, 2012, 11:14:04 am »

Volt / Qvist

Why do you think that scum allowed an investigation to go through?
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1341 on: November 30, 2012, 11:18:37 am »

I'm continuing reading now.

Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1342 on: November 30, 2012, 11:20:49 am »

Qvist - who do you think is volts partner?

Notice how Qvist ignored this question, signing off instead.  That is because it has no good answer.  Because I am town.

Man, I'm really pissed now. I nearly came too late today to work because I was so tired. If I would have known that it takes so much time to follow this, I wouldn't have signed up. Now back to topic.

Voltgloss

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1344 on: November 30, 2012, 11:23:22 am »

Volt / Qvist

Why do you think that scum allowed an investigation to go through?

I think they thought Eevee was the Cop, based on his apparent breadcrumb.  And I think they thought the Doctor caught that same "breadcrumb" as well.  So they expected the Doctor to protect Eevee.  So they shut off the Doctor and killed Eevee, hoping they were hitting the Cop.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1345 on: November 30, 2012, 11:28:05 am »

Qvist?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1346 on: November 30, 2012, 11:30:22 am »

Oh - and QVist - if you're at work / busy - just say so.  We have time... and this is less important than your job / family / social life.

More important than Volt and his family though.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1347 on: November 30, 2012, 11:31:53 am »


More important than Volt and his family though.

Man, confirm a guy as town and he just feels ALL kinds of license to snark.  ;D
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1348 on: November 30, 2012, 11:35:51 am »

Notice how 100% rock-solid sure Axxle is that I am scum and Qvist is town.

Now notice how all the rest of you are unsure as to which of us (me or Qvist) is town and which is scum.

Your unsurety is how town SHOULD feel, and act, in this situation.  You don't know which of us is the liar, and you're trying to figure it out.

Why is Axxle so 100% rock-solid sure? 
There is only one explanation:  he knows which of us is town.  (Me.)  And he knows because he is scum.  (With Qvist.)

Remember:  from scum's perspective, if one of them gets lynched today, they lose the game.  With Follow-the-Cop, they are doomed.

So Axxle's only, ONLY, chance, is to convince you all that I am scum, get me lynched, and hope that you don't all lynch him on the final day after lynching Qvist tomorrow.

That's why he is trying so very hard.  It's his (and Qvist's) only hope.

Why are you pushing Axxle so hard? Did you investigate him too?
There is only one explanation:  you know which of us is town.  (Me. and probably Axxle)  And Axxle knows because he is probably town, so you must be scum. D'oh, I can argument the same way. Where are the facts? You can always see such points from two sides.

And your argumentation is wrong. If you're getting killed, you haven't lost the game. Let's say you're lucky, and your partner kills the doctor. Then there are 5 left, 3 VT, 1 scum and 1 cop. It looks bad yeah, but it is far from over as the cop only got one more read which might be VT.

But, tell me again, I didn't understand it. Why did you claim? CF only had 1 vote and you said he was probably going to be mislynched.
That's crazy. And you answered:

I said he was going to be mislynched.  That was the trend, the direction the day was going.

What trend? I didn't saw that. Exactly before your claim Axxle even changed votes, only 1 vote was on him. So, why did you claim?

And why did you try to start a bandwagon on yuma the night before if you didn't get a result until then? I really like to hear that too.

TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1349 on: November 30, 2012, 11:36:24 am »


More important than Volt and his family though.

Man, confirm a guy as town and he just feels ALL kinds of license to snark.  ;D

Remember the Yuma-gate earlier regarding making fun of your family?  I dont think you need to be IC to snark ;D
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