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[Axxle]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

What do you mean by the plan "won't work?"  Are you saying you think that we have a better than 50% chance of winning if we don't massclaim?  Or are you saying you think that, if we massclaim, we have a less than 50% chance of winning?

Doesn't matter why.

Suffice it to say that I will vote against doing so.

Vote: Captain_Frisk

I have to go with my reads here.

I look forward to this case.

Not much more to the case than what has already been mentioned.  Your attack on Galz, your stance on yuma was wishywashy, your reaction to the joth hammer seemed forced especially since it was so close to the deadline.

[Captain_Frisk]

Munch, are you against all claims in every game?

[Captain_Frisk]

Axxle, I am kind of thinking that you are hoping to get te munch and qvist to lynch me
Before we proceed with volts plan.

[Voltgloss]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

What do you mean by the plan "won't work?"  Are you saying you think that we have a better than 50% chance of winning if we don't massclaim?  Or are you saying you think that, if we massclaim, we have a less than 50% chance of winning?

Doesn't matter why.

Suffice it to say that I will vote against doing so.

No, that doesn't "suffice it to say."  My question is a simple, either/or question that does not ask you to elaborate any further or to get into any potentially anti-town discussion.  I think it warrants an answer.

[Axxle]

It would be anti-town if I explained my reasons.

[Axxle]

Axxle, I am kind of thinking that you are hoping to get te munch and qvist to lynch me
Before we proceed with volts plan.

I think volt's plan won't work.

[Axxle]

Axxle, I am kind of thinking that you are hoping to get te munch and qvist to lynch me
Before we proceed with volts plan.

I think volt's plan won't work.

So yes.

[TheMunch]

Munch, are you against all claims in every game?

Actually I was just recently discussing this with Shraeye while we were taking out the trash.  I think part of the problem is when I think of claiming I think of unsubstantiated claiming.  Claims that only have the players word to back them up.  I would say there are reasons to come out with your role at the time when it is most opportune to do so.  I mean, cop might have to come out with the fact that hes cop in order to share game winning investigatory information.  But in precisely these situations, there are people who can substantiate the players claims.  There are also some setups that can be broken by massclaims, but those usually involve a great degree of flavor.

In this game, with no PRs actually being able to use their role, except doctor most likely last night, everyone has at best unsubstantiated claims.  With 1 mislynch I would rather leave this game up to reads than a "greater than 50% chance to win."  I'm not going to flip a coin when I'm pretty sure I know where scum is.

[Voltgloss]

It would be anti-town if I explained my reasons.

But I am not asking you to explain your reasons.  I'm asking you simply to identify which part of my proposal you think is incorrect:  (1) that we have less than a 50% random-chance of victory if we don't massclaim, or (2) that we have at least a 50% random-chance of victory if we do massclaim.  I fail to see how your answering that question, and that question alone (no further explanation requested), could possibly be anti-town.

Also:  Frisk is at L-2.  I ask either Axxle or Munch to unvote, to prevent potential scum-and/or-derphammerers from ending the day short before we (as a group) have decided what's best re: town power roles.

[TheMunch]

My vote isn't leaving CF until I am convinced he is not scum.

[Voltgloss]

In this game, with no PRs actually being able to use their role, except doctor most likely last night, everyone has at best unsubstantiated claims.  With 1 mislynch I would rather leave this game up to reads than a "greater than 50% chance to win."  I'm not going to flip a coin when I'm pretty sure I know where scum is.

Munch, I'm not suggesting we abandon reads.  What I'm saying is I think massclaim plus reads give us the best chance at solving this mystery.  Remember, reads can be wrong.  Think back to your read on Eevee mid-Day 2.  Think about how strongly you felt that read.  Well, you're not alone in being able to develop very strong reads - that turn out to be wrong.

Without getting TOO deeply into the maths - if we massclaim today, and all town players tell the truth, there is one of three possible results:

1.  5 players claim VT, 2 claim power roles.  The power-role claimants are then substantiated because they are the only power-role claimants.  They are confirmed town.  We than have a baseline 2/5 chance of lynching scum (and I do agree that our reads should help us do better than that).  If we lynch scum, then the last scum can't block EITHER of the powerroles (if he does, he can't nightkill).  That means the Doc can protect the Cop, and the Cop can investigate, and the scum has only a 50% chance of successfully killing the Doc instead of the Cop. 

2.  4 players claim VT, 3 claim power roles.  One of the power-role claimants is scum.  I would then suggest the 3 PR claimants to identify exactly which PR they are claiming.  That leaves 1 confirmed PR and 2 players claiming the same PR; one town, one scum.  50% chance of lynching correctly, which lets the Cop investigate at night while scum kills the Doc (who should protect the Cop).  Day 4 with 1 Cop with an investigation vs. 1 scum is a good situation for town.  And even if we mislynch on Day 3, we are guaranteed to lynch the faker the following day, leading to LyLo on Day 5 - but that's still a better situation than if we mislynch today and don't go into Day 4 knowing 100% who one of the scum is.

3.  3 players claim VT, 4 claim power roles.  Now the 3 VT players are confirmed town, because we know both scum are amongst the 4 power-role claimant group.  50% chance of lynching correctly - AND, even if we mislynch, we once again are guaranteed to lynch the fake-claimer correctly on Day 4, leading to a Day 5 of 1 real PR vs. 1 fake PR plus 2 confirmed town - a 50-50 shot in LyLo, which is significantly better than the usual 33% chance of victory.

[Axxle]

Like I said before, you are wrong and it would be anti-town if I explained my reasons.

Let's focus on finding scum.

And by that I mean let's lynch CF.

[Voltgloss]

How about we let everyone else weigh in on the idea before you unilaterally put the kibosh on it while simultaneously refusing to discuss it even in the slightest?

ash, yuma, Qvist, CF:  I would appreciate your thoughts. 
Munch, I know you're against the idea, but if my last lengthy post helps explain things or triggers further questions, please let me know.

[Voltgloss]

While we're at it:  Axxle, why do you think CF is scummier than Qvist?

[ashersky]

How about we let everyone else weigh in on the idea before you unilaterally put the kibosh on it while simultaneously refusing to discuss it even in the slightest?

ash, yuma, Qvist, CF:  I would appreciate your thoughts. 
Munch, I know you're against the idea, but if my last lengthy post helps explain things or triggers further questions, please let me know.

I mentioned earlier today that I was hesitant.  The plan as you laid it out makes sense.  Are you sure you've accounted for all the possibilities?

The way I see it, 5 of you would need to claim.  You've broken it down to 2 PRs and 3 VTs, 3 PRs and 2 VTs, or 4 PRs and 1 VT.  I think that matches up.

Do you think mafia planned for this possibility?  Is our extended discussion of how it plays out actually helping them plan?

Axxle's reaction is hard to understand.  I mean, I get being against it, but not wanting to say anything at all as to why makes it tough to compute.

[Voltgloss]

The way I see it, 5 of you would need to claim.  You've broken it down to 2 PRs and 3 VTs, 3 PRs and 2 VTs, or 4 PRs and 1 VT.  I think that matches up.

Do you think mafia planned for this possibility?  Is our extended discussion of how it plays out actually helping them plan?

As long as we don't get into analysis of which of those three setups (2 PR/3 VT, 3 PR/2 VT, 4 PR/1 VT) is best/worst for town, I don't see how our discussing "should we massclaim at all" is going to help scum.  They may have planned for massclaim, sure, but if they have then they've already planned how to respond to it - our discussing is, I would think, less than likely to move them to deviate from whatever plan they made amongst themselves. 

[Axxle]

While we're at it:  Axxle, why do you think CF is scummier than Qvist?

Qvists case seems based on him being timid, which can be expected from new town that doesn't want to make mistakes.
I already stated some of CF's case.
Im pretty sure I've pinned his other scummate too.

[Axxle]

The way I see it, 5 of you would need to claim.  You've broken it down to 2 PRs and 3 VTs, 3 PRs and 2 VTs, or 4 PRs and 1 VT.  I think that matches up.

Do you think mafia planned for this possibility?  Is our extended discussion of how it plays out actually helping them plan?

As long as we don't get into analysis of which of those three setups (2 PR/3 VT, 3 PR/2 VT, 4 PR/1 VT) is best/worst for town, I don't see how our discussing "should we massclaim at all" is going to help scum.  They may have planned for massclaim, sure, but if they have then they've already planned how to respond to it - our discussing is, I would think, less than likely to move them to deviate from whatever plan they made amongst themselves.

you know my stance on theory discussion. Kill it dead.

[Axxle]

Volt, who is your strongest scumread today anyway?

[Voltgloss]

Volt, who is your strongest scumread today anyway?

You and Qvist are currently tied at #1.5.
I'm rereading both of you now.  Qvist first.

[Axxle]

Let me know which of us is easiest to mislynch.  Might be good for a laugh.

[Qvist]

Ok, let me clarify again. I saw the L-1 from CF and then wrote this.

jotheonah, I think you should claim too.
There's only 1 hour left until I cast my final vote.
And I'm tempted to risk the hammer because a No Lynch is guaranteed horrible while a lynch is only a possible mislynch.

The "New answered were posted" warning popped, I quickly just checked for new votes, there weren't any, so I submitted.
Then I saw that joth already claimed and had to think about it. Before I could say anything, TheMunch hammered.
I don't understand why this looks scummy to you.

I know this was the third time where I was in a position to hammer and didn't do it.
I didn't hammer yuma because he was town for me.
I didn't hammer ashersky because I had 3 people that looked to me more suspicious than him. I was just hesitant, maybe because this is my first game and I don't want to make any mistakes.
I didn't hammer jotheonah because I didn't had any chance to do it.

Anyway, back to the case.
Eevee is dead. That was surprising. I thought that Voltgloss or TheMunch were going to get killed.
Voltgloss is obvtown to most of us, but still he doesn't get killed. Now he's suspecting me! And he didn't vote for jotheonah.
TheMunch, like I said earlier, it looks like bad town play, but that means that he should be a good night target too.
yuma, I didn't change my mind after the yumawagon was abandoned. Read what I said. I was hesitant. I was just saying that you basically can't be town if CF and Eevee are scum which made me think. But I trusted my original gut and never was in any position in voting for you. CF and Eevee were still my fav scum picks.
CF, you did the L-1 on jotheonah which gives you some credibility points although we can't be sure that no scum was voting for jotheonah.
ashersky didn't vote for jotheonah neither and behaved a little strange lately. But similar to yuma, he claimed VT.
Axxle, I still haven't a very good read on you.

I will reread Eevee's comments and especially jotheonah's comments later today.
Until then no vote, because everyone has so far pros and cons.

[Voltgloss]

So on reread, I find it fascinating that:

- On Day 1, Qvist throws a battery of random votes around, on - yet studiously avoids joth and Axxle.  He votes Munch, Grujah (now me), ashersky, and yuma.  He never weighs in on the main topic of the day (Galzria) at ALL.

- On Day 2, Qvist directs suspicion at CF, Eevee, and ash.  He says almost nil about joth and Axxle all day - listing them both with me as "no read" in his 11/14 2:30:56 pm post.  The only time he says anything even remotely negative about joth is in 11/19/12 at 5:23:43 pm, when he lists Munch, ash, Eevee, and CF as all better lynch targets than yuma - following with "Even jtotheonah plays a little bit too 'adaptively' IMO to be townish."  Note 11/21/12 11:01:31 am, where Qvist reacts to Eevee's vote on joth by voting Eevee.  Classic chainsaw.  (Note also he does NOT chainsaw Axxle, who also voted joth by this time.  Doesn't even mention him.)

He also agrees with everything by Axxle and points some suspicion at Munch - but only after Axxle has done so first (see 11/15/12 at 6:24:49 am).  His only comments directed TO Axxle are to implore him (Axxle) to weigh in, and to ask clarification of a point of Axxle's he did not understand.  His 11/19/12 5:23:43 pm post again professes "no big read" on Axxle.  Same again at 11/21/12 10:45:28 am. 

And he insists that his failure to hammer yuma makes him (Qvist) conftown, assuming yuma is also town.  See 11/20/12, 10:38:58 am.  Identical to the argument Axxle made today about himself. 

Qvist's suspicions list at 11/25/12 6:05:45 am has joth at #6 out of 8 (with Axxle at #5).  So the only people he claims to find less suspicious than joth are himself and yuma.  The only time he expresses ANY interest in voting joth is in the same breath of asking joth to claim.  See 11/26/12 10:38:20 am.  Which gets posted AFTER joth has actually already claimed!

On top of all of that, notice how Qvist completely ignored weighing in on my massclaim proposal. 

I think Qvist is newbie scum trying to avoid saying anything even remotely bad about his partners if he can help it; trying to avoid taking stances on controversial wagons in order to avoid suspicion, preferring to direct suspicion on people who aren't in danger of being lynched (CF, Eevee); and trying to avoid hammering town in order to avoid suspicion.

As to his latest post:

I know this was the third time where I was in a position to hammer and didn't do it.
I didn't hammer yuma because he was town for me.
I didn't hammer ashersky because I had 3 people that looked to me more suspicious than him. I was just hesitant, maybe because this is my first game and I don't want to make any mistakes.
I didn't hammer jotheonah because I didn't had any chance to do it.

Of course scum!Qvist didn't hammer yuma, because he is using that failure to hammer as evidence that he (Qvist) is town.

Qvist is probably telling the truth about not hammering ash.  He was hesitant, because this is his first game as scum and he didn't want to make the mistake (of hammering town and drawing suspicion).  In retrospect, I expect he feels that hesitancy WAS a mistake.

And he didn't hammer joth because he never intended to.  He only wanted joth to fakeclaim to draw out the Doctor.

And here we are again with:

Axxle, I still haven't a very good read on you.

Finally:

Until then no vote, because everyone has so far pros and cons.

Y'know what?  With 2 votes on CF, I think some action is needed to even the scales. 

Vote: Qvist

[Captain_Frisk]

That's a pretty compelling case Volt!

[Qvist]

Many points are really ridiculous.

So on reread, I find it fascinating that:

- On Day 1, Qvist throws a battery of random votes around, on - yet studiously avoids joth and Axxle.  He votes Munch, Grujah (now me), ashersky, and yuma.  He never weighs in on the main topic of the day (Galzria) at ALL.

So what? I thought you do throw out a battery of random votes in RVS and you can't vote on everybody. Many others did the same. Regarding Galzria: I didn't say a lot about that, yeah, but simply because I really didn't know what this meant. I mean, voting for yourself? WTH?

- On Day 2, Qvist directs suspicion at CF, Eevee, and ash.  He says almost nil about joth and Axxle all day - listing them both with me as "no read" in his 11/14 2:30:56 pm post.  The only time he says anything even remotely negative about joth is in 11/19/12 at 5:23:43 pm, when he lists Munch, ash, Eevee, and CF as all better lynch targets than yuma - following with "Even jtotheonah plays a little bit too 'adaptively' IMO to be townish."  Note 11/21/12 11:01:31 am, where Qvist reacts to Eevee's vote on joth by voting Eevee.  Classic chainsaw.  (Note also he does NOT chainsaw Axxle, who also voted joth by this time.  Doesn't even mention him.)

jotheonah played pretty defensive and adaptively which was hard to read for me. What should I say about him? I didn't know if this is scummy behaviour. And Axxle, well, he didn't say a lot (beside the bulk of one liners). It's even harder to say anything about him. Regarding the Eevee case: Did you even read my post? He voted ashersky and then cited two comments, just to say that he wants lynch them, without a reason. After youself asked about jotheonah, he switched to jotheonah again with no real reason, he even admitted it. That looked very scummy to me, although we know that this wasn't the case. But you have to admit that this was strange.

He also agrees with everything by Axxle and points some suspicion at Munch - but only after Axxle has done so first (see 11/15/12 at 6:24:49 am).  His only comments directed TO Axxle are to implore him (Axxle) to weigh in, and to ask clarification of a point of Axxle's he did not understand.  His 11/19/12 5:23:43 pm post again professes "no big read" on Axxle.  Same again at 11/21/12 10:45:28 am. 

And he insists that his failure to hammer yuma makes him (Qvist) conftown, assuming yuma is also town.  See 11/20/12, 10:38:58 am.  Identical to the argument Axxle made today about himself. 

TheMunch made it Very Easy (TM) to accidentally lynch Galz.  He places his vote in the middle of a paragraph and doesn't announce the L-1.
This is antitown and scummy.

I agree here. I think of all going on CFs Galzria wagon, TheMunch made it too easy.

Don't you agree here?

And he insists that his failure to hammer yuma makes him (Qvist) conftown, assuming yuma is also town.  See 11/20/12, 10:38:58 am.  Identical to the argument Axxle made today about himself. 

So, you're saying that it's scum that I didn't hammer town (again assuming yuma is town)!? Where's the point?

Qvist's suspicions list at 11/25/12 6:05:45 am has joth at #6 out of 8 (with Axxle at #5).  So the only people he claims to find less suspicious than joth are himself and yuma.  The only time he expresses ANY interest in voting joth is in the same breath of asking joth to claim.  See 11/26/12 10:38:20 am.  Which gets posted AFTER joth has actually already claimed!

I already explained why this was after. I was ninja'd. And I was willing to take the risk, but hadn't the oppotunity. It's hard to prove, I know, but that's what happened.

On top of all of that, notice how Qvist completely ignored weighing in on my massclaim proposal. 

Sorry, I didn't ignore it. I just don't know if this is a good idea. And I tried to evaluate that, but had a hard time. But I think you brought up a valid point, it might work, but is really risky.

I think Qvist is newbie scum trying to avoid saying anything even remotely bad about his partners if he can help it; trying to avoid taking stances on controversial wagons in order to avoid suspicion, preferring to direct suspicion on people who aren't in danger of being lynched (CF, Eevee); and trying to avoid hammering town in order to avoid suspicion.

I'm still new to this, tell me why this is scummy. But anyway, you aren't completely telling the truth. CF was voted various time on #1 as top scum read and Eevee was also suspected by many others. On the end of day 2, I said that I will change my vote, willing to hammer, but hadn't the opportunity to do so.

As to his latest post:

I know this was the third time where I was in a position to hammer and didn't do it.
I didn't hammer yuma because he was town for me.
I didn't hammer ashersky because I had 3 people that looked to me more suspicious than him. I was just hesitant, maybe because this is my first game and I don't want to make any mistakes.
I didn't hammer jotheonah because I didn't had any chance to do it.

Of course scum!Qvist didn't hammer yuma, because he is using that failure to hammer as evidence that he (Qvist) is town.

Qvist is probably telling the truth about not hammering ash.  He was hesitant, because this is his first game as scum and he didn't want to make the mistake (of hammering town and drawing suspicion).  In retrospect, I expect he feels that hesitancy WAS a mistake.

And he didn't hammer joth because he never intended to.  He only wanted joth to fakeclaim to draw out the Doctor.

And here we are again with:

Axxle, I still haven't a very good read on you.

Finally:

Until then no vote, because everyone has so far pros and cons.

Y'know what?  With 2 votes on CF, I think some action is needed to even the scales. 

Vote: Qvist

This is ridiculous, I'm telling the truth here. Your arguments are flawed and hide important facts.
I tell you what I think. Why didn't scum kill you if you are obvtown? Why Eevee?
Maybe because you are scum and obviously won't NK yourself? You killed Eevee because you can bring up points that make me look bad?
You didn't vote for your scumbuddy jotheonah neither, many things you said about me I can say about you too.
You did start a bandwagon on (assumed) town yuma which nearly worked out and now you're starting a similar one on me?

Vote: Voltgloss