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[Captain_Frisk]

On the subject of mass claiming - we have 7 alive, and 2 mislynches.

This is stream of consciousness theory - not sure where I feel about it:

If we full claimed - then we're left with (from my perspective) 4 people of unknown alignment.  (As I know I'm town).  That puts the chances of lynching correctly @ 50% (at least), and once done, the doc can protect the cop and we're off to the races.  The doc will die, but the cop will get an investigation in, and that will clear one more, leaving us with 1 scum in 3.

If only the cop claims - we still have a 50/50 shot of catching scum (the doctor will no doubt claim before we lynch), but if we lynch correctly without exposing the doc (40% chance) then the doctor can protect the cop forever.

If we don't claim, we run the risk of losing one or more PRs (< 40% (doc could protect) if we lynch correctly, < 50% if we mislynch)

Again, not sure how I feel, just trying to think it through.

Neglecting doctor protection, we have 2 nights remaining (1 mislynch, 1 hit on scum, and then lylo on the 3rd day)

If we claim and mislynch, scum will no doubt enable the cop, block the doctor, and kill the cop, and the the doctor the next night.

[Axxle]

You're neglecting the switches.

[Axxle]

or you address it in the last line... carry on.

[TheMunch]

We still only have 1 mislynch...

[Axxle]

Unless the doctor is successful... twice.  But yeah that sounds right.

[ashersky]

If we claim and mislynch, scum will no doubt enable the cop, block the doctor, and kill the cop, and the the doctor the next night.

This is my biggest worry, too.  A mislynch puts us at lylo tomorrow...but it would be three of us against two scum, but with a two in three chance of lynching scum (from my perspective, since it'd be me and the doctor confirmed town).  Those are good odds, but still puts us in a tough lylo 1 v 2 the next day.

On the subject of mass claiming - we have 7 alive, and 2 mislynches.

What do you mean here?  Don't we lose if we mislynch twice?

[TheMunch]

Its at 5-2.  We mislynch today, tonight we are at 4-2.  If doc is successful we are at 4-2 still.  Which means if we mislynch again doctor has to be successful again or we lose.  And how are we down to 4 targets only after massclaim?  How do you constantly know what everyone is going to claim when they claim?  Are both other scum going to claim PR and both actual PRs are going to counterclaim?

[yuma]

Man... I just want to vote for somebody! I am tired of trying to reread while studying at the same time.

So interesting fact here:

Qvist had the chance to hammer three times and was not on any major wagon yesterday or on the Galz lynch.

First time on me. Although at this point he had expressed a town read on me, but that appeared to change--very suspiciously to me toward the end of the day.

Second time on ashersky, just after ash claimed VT he expressed a potential willingness to hammer

Third time on jotheonah at the lynch but was supposedly beat to it by TheMunch.

this looks an awfully lot like me when I was scum in MXIV.

vote: qvist

[ashersky]

Qvist had the chance to hammer three times and was not on any major wagon yesterday or on the Galz lynch.

This is actually a compelling point.  This is Qvist's very first game, right?  Do first-timers often hammer, or are they scared to?  (Come to think of it, I think I hammered Robz on D1 of MX, my first game.)

Still, it does look awful scummy.

[yuma]

Qvist had the chance to hammer three times and was not on any major wagon yesterday or on the Galz lynch.

This is actually a compelling point.  This is Qvist's very first game, right?  Do first-timers often hammer, or are they scared to?  (Come to think of it, I think I hammered Robz on D1 of MX, my first game.)

Still, it does look awful scummy.

granted Qvist, town or scum or anyone else for that matter, may have been somewhat intimidated to hammer given the amount of suspicion I garnered for hammering Day 1. Although that was an entirely different situation...

[Captain_Frisk]

If we claim and mislynch, scum will no doubt enable the cop, block the doctor, and kill the cop, and the the doctor the next night.

This is my biggest worry, too.  A mislynch puts us at lylo tomorrow...but it would be three of us against two scum, but with a two in three chance of lynching scum (from my perspective, since it'd be me and the doctor confirmed town).  Those are good odds, but still puts us in a tough lylo 1 v 2 the next day.

On the subject of mass claiming - we have 7 alive, and 2 mislynches.

What do you mean here?  Don't we lose if we mislynch twice?

Yes. Brain fart

[Voltgloss]

I've been working on maths, and I'm starting to lean towards a massclaim today. 

But with a twist:  instead of claiming "VT," "cop," or "doc," I'm thinking everyone claim "VT" or "power role" (which could be cop OR doc).  This twist has the advantage of forcing scum to guess which of the power roles is the cop and which is the doc when making their nightkill tonight.

I am pretty sure that, if we do this, we guarantee at least a 50% chance of victory even if all lynches are randomly decided - regardless of whether scum fakeclaim or not.  (I can post the maths, but I'm hesitant to do so, as they make clear whether fakeclaiming is the better strategy for scum and I'd rather not educate them.)

As points of reference:

- If we lynch randomly from here on out, and the power roles get killed without getting any significant results, we have only a 22.85% chance of victory.

- Even if we don't massclaim, scum have at least a 40% chance of successfully targeting a power role tonight.  And that's only if the scumteam is yuma/ash.  If either one of them is town, scum can cross them off the list of potential power roles (because of their VT claims) and thus get a 50% chance of hitting a power role.  If they are BOTH town, scum have a 66.67% chance of hitting a power role.

[Axxle]

I was going to say I disagree but it might just work.

[TheMunch]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

[Captain_Frisk]

I am going to sleep on this issue.

Yuma voting feels odd to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

Eternal shame.

[Axxle]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

I have to go with my reads here.

[Captain_Frisk]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

[Axxle]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

[Captain_Frisk]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

Oh?

[Axxle]

Oh.

[TheMunch]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

I'm with axxle.  And not just cause I'm "Against all Claims," but because I am honestly trying to work it out and I dont see it working.  Wont work.  I'm against.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

I have to go with my reads here.

I look forward to this case.

[TheMunch]

Vote: Captain_Frisk

I have to go with my reads here.

I look forward to this case.

...

[Voltgloss]

What is the punishment for refusal to participate?

A the very least, you should work out some logic explaining why you are for / against.

Volts plan won't work.  Doesn't matter why.

What do you mean by the plan "won't work?"  Are you saying you think that we have a better than 50% chance of winning if we don't massclaim?  Or are you saying you think that, if we massclaim, we have a less than 50% chance of winning?