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[yuma]

FOS Blitz Mafia 5, by the way, I have the day off today and am just bumming around at home while the wife has the car.

[jotheonah]

So there are four votes on Yuma and there have been four votes for a while.  Maybe Yuma even will come out from this with his life.  But I really think there has to be a reason why it is so hard to actually follow through and lynch Yuma.  I'm thinking that Yuma is scum with a team that is unwilling to bus/hammer for town cred.  They dont need town cred when town only has 1 mislynch; they need their scum alive to keep town in this precarious position.  I feel this way about Yuma more so and Eevee somewhat as I've seen his name thrown around a bunch as a possible lynch candidate yet still never gaining traction.  In general I feel like lynch should unilaterally be harder to lynch as we have to convince a larger percentage of a smaller amount of players that they are scum and this fits the bill with Yuma and Eevee.

I think a lot of people have gained town reads on me which is going to get me killed tonight (although Ashersky might have just kept me alive by indicating even the smallest desire to lynch me), so I at least wanted to make this statement today.

This makes a lot of sense. About why yuma's so hard to lynch. What are your thoughts about his VT claim, TheMunch?

[yuma]

So there are four votes on Yuma and there have been four votes for a while.  Maybe Yuma even will come out from this with his life.  But I really think there has to be a reason why it is so hard to actually follow through and lynch Yuma.  I'm thinking that Yuma is scum with a team that is unwilling to bus/hammer for town cred.  They dont need town cred when town only has 1 mislynch; they need their scum alive to keep town in this precarious position.  I feel this way about Yuma more so and Eevee somewhat as I've seen his name thrown around a bunch as a possible lynch candidate yet still never gaining traction.  In general I feel like lynch should unilaterally be harder to lynch as we have to convince a larger percentage of a smaller amount of players that they are scum and this fits the bill with Yuma and Eevee.

I think a lot of people have gained town reads on me which is going to get me killed tonight (although Ashersky might have just kept me alive by indicating even the smallest desire to lynch me), so I at least wanted to make this statement today.

This makes a lot of sense. About why yuma's so hard to lynch. What are your thoughts about his VT claim, TheMunch?

you have completely missed, or chosen to ignore, my theory, and I am willing to bet some serious Goko coin (no, not really, I don't have any Goko coin, but if I did, I would bet it) that this is what is happening. That scum was hoping that enough townies would be willing to lynch me so as to enable them to stay off my lynch wagon for the most part. At this point I don't think that all 3 scum are on my wagon. My bet is that scum expressed a town read on me to gain the necessary cred for tomorrow when I flipped town tomorrow. But in fact not enough townies were willing to vote for me. But the scum not voting for me had already expressed a town read on me and are not willing to go back on that because they will be a prime target tomorrow when I flip town.

This makes even more sense.

[jotheonah]

yuma, if you weren't you, which theory would strike you as more convoluted? I'm inclined to think yours.

[yuma]

yuma, if you weren't you, which theory would strike you as more convoluted? I'm inclined to think yours.

Good question:

So yours is basically that:
1. yuma is scum
2. his buddies won't buss
3. because if they do they lose their advantage over town
4. therefore 2 of the players not voting for yuma must be scum
5. so I am now stuck at only 4 votes and they are hoping a townie breaks ranks.
(note that there are some flaws here, for example, that I am town, and that there still are two townies not voting for me, why are they not voting for me?)

Mine is basically that:
1. a wagon formed on me
2. scum wanted to stay off it to get town cred
3. scum expressed a town read on me
4. and now can't go back on their read
5. so I am now stuck at only 4 votes and they are hoping a townie breaks ranks.

They actually look very similar to me, and interestingly enough come to the same conclusion. That people not voting for are more likely to be scum than those that are. I think the only difference is that in my scenario I see it most likely that there is 1 scum on the wagon and probably 2 off. Whereas you see it as I am scum and there are probably 2 off.

In summary: we have a better chance of finding and lynching scum if we vote for people currently off my wagon.

[Voltgloss]

Y'know whose thoughts on yuma I would really like to see at this point?  Frisk's.

Frisk has positioned himself as the deciding vote re: yuma.  The order of declarations was:

1. Volt makes case on yuma
2. Eevee rejects case
3. jotheonah agrees with case
4. ashersky agrees with case
5. TheMunch agrees with case (L-1); Eevee tells people to slow down
6. Captain_Frisk weighs both sides
7. Qvist rejects case
8. Axxle rejects case

I'm not asking Frisk to plop down a vote and hammer, but I would like to know how (if at all) his reads on yuma have changed since he last considered the case on yuma.  (If this is already in a previous post and I missed it, I apologize.)

When's our deadline?

[Voltgloss]

Deadline is Monday.  OK.  We have a little time, but not TOO much time given peoples' likely V/LA over the holiday weekend.

[Voltgloss]

yuma:  out of the people off your wagon (Eevee, Frisk, Qvist, Axxle), you have expressed the most suspicion of Qvist.  What are your thoughts on Eevee and Axxle?  Am I right to assume that you suspect Frisk the least?  (because he, IIRC, hasn't expressed so much of a townread on you that he can't reasonably go back and vote you)

[yuma]

yuma:  out of the people off your wagon (Eevee, Frisk, Qvist, Axxle), you have expressed the most suspicion of Qvist.  What are your thoughts on Eevee and Axxle?  Am I right to assume that you suspect Frisk the least?  (because he, IIRC, hasn't expressed so much of a townread on you that he can't reasonably go back and vote you)

Axxle is my most town read... Qvist and Frisk are more scum read... eevee is middle

[TheMunch]

So there are four votes on Yuma and there have been four votes for a while.  Maybe Yuma even will come out from this with his life.  But I really think there has to be a reason why it is so hard to actually follow through and lynch Yuma.  I'm thinking that Yuma is scum with a team that is unwilling to bus/hammer for town cred.  They dont need town cred when town only has 1 mislynch; they need their scum alive to keep town in this precarious position.  I feel this way about Yuma more so and Eevee somewhat as I've seen his name thrown around a bunch as a possible lynch candidate yet still never gaining traction.  In general I feel like lynch should unilaterally be harder to lynch as we have to convince a larger percentage of a smaller amount of players that they are scum and this fits the bill with Yuma and Eevee.

I think a lot of people have gained town reads on me which is going to get me killed tonight (although Ashersky might have just kept me alive by indicating even the smallest desire to lynch me), so I at least wanted to make this statement today.

This makes a lot of sense. About why yuma's so hard to lynch. What are your thoughts about his VT claim, TheMunch?

I dont like claims.  I think they are only interesting/useful with situations like the now over MXIII.  You got 2 guys claiming cop, one has to be lying.  Lot to be gained from that.  Yuma claiming VT is worth 0.

Watch:
Hey guys, I'm VT.

Its very easy to say.  It is impossible to know whether or not its true.  Someone cant counterclaim VT...

[jotheonah]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

[Voltgloss]

yuma:  out of the people off your wagon (Eevee, Frisk, Qvist, Axxle), you have expressed the most suspicion of Qvist.  What are your thoughts on Eevee and Axxle?  Am I right to assume that you suspect Frisk the least?  (because he, IIRC, hasn't expressed so much of a townread on you that he can't reasonably go back and vote you)

Axxle is my most town read... Qvist and Frisk are more scum read... eevee is middle

Interesting.

[TheMunch]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

[TheMunch]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they scum start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

edit for clarity.

[jotheonah]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

This is a good point. Sort of forgot about the switches for a sec. there.

[Captain_Frisk]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

This is a good point. Sort of forgot about the switches for a sec. there.

Even with the switches off, the PRs have a role as named townies...

ie - you can claim at L-1 and not get lynched.  Unless you're counterclaimed, in which case we at least have our suspect pool narrowed to 2.

[TheMunch]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

This is a good point. Sort of forgot about the switches for a sec. there.

Even with the switches off, the PRs have a role as named townies...

ie - you can claim at L-1 and not get lynched.  Unless you're counterclaimed, in which case we at least have our suspect pool narrowed to 2.

I'm also kind of saying as glorified VTs, why should claiming any of VT/Cop/Doc inherently save you?  All of these roles became unverifiable the second all the switches got turned off.  There is no reason to counterclaim.

[jotheonah]

Well, except that if we lynch any scum but the vig switch we can get a power role back.

[Qvist]

Some good points are made in the last couple of posts.

Let's do some analysis. Let's assume yuma is town.
Then I don't think there are 0 or 1 scum currently voting for yuma. The second scum can hammer him without problems.
2 scum could currently vote for yuma, but this makes still little sense because after lynching yuma and another townie kill at night, there are 4 townies against 3 scums with us basically having no PRs. That's basically a win for Mafia. The only guess what makes sense is that there are currently all 3 Mafia guys voting for yuma and waiting for someone to hammer him which makes that person look scummy.

Now let's assume yuma is Mafia.
If a scum buddy would still vote for him, that would be really risky, so the probability is high that both 2 Mafia players are the among the ones not voting for him.

Conclusion:
yuma can't be town if CF and Eevee (my current scum picks) are scum. So, unvote.
I now either believe in my CF and Eevee reads and then I should vote for yuma.
Or I should still trust my yuma read and should vote for one of Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky.

I have to think about that.

[Captain_Frisk]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

This is a good point. Sort of forgot about the switches for a sec. there.

Even with the switches off, the PRs have a role as named townies...

ie - you can claim at L-1 and not get lynched.  Unless you're counterclaimed, in which case we at least have our suspect pool narrowed to 2.

I'm also kind of saying as glorified VTs, why should claiming any of VT/Cop/Doc inherently save you?  All of these roles became unverifiable the second all the switches got turned off.  There is no reason to counterclaim.

The munch... lets say you get me to L-1.

I claim that I'm the Cop.  [Disclaimer - NOT CLAIMING THAT I'M THE COP]

If no-one counter claims - then i must be the cop, right?  Even if I'm 100% useless, you still shouldn't lynch me because i'm effectively an innocent child. 

Anyone who claims will undoubtedly be night killed, but at least we don't mislynch.

[yuma]

But Scum that's fingered anyway may as well claim a PR, right. Either it buys them another day or it outs a real PR. So the question is, why didn't scum!yuma do that?

Why claim PR's when all PR's are shut down anyway.  I dont think its in scums best interest to be trying to out PRs though.  They need mislynches.  The PR's only really need to be dying if they start dying so self preservation is paramount.  I could see POSSIBLY as scum claiming the PR of your switch which outs the PR you control and gets them NK.  This leads me to believe Yuma is the Vig Switch and has no need to claim anything but VT.

It doesn't matter! I am a VT so when I asked people if I should claim and they said yes, I said VT. End of story, done. Gah!

[TheMunch]

Well, except that if we lynch any scum but the vig switch we can get a power role back.

This is precisely why if you are a true town power role you should keep your mouth SHUT!

[yuma]

Let's do some analysis. Let's assume yuma is town.
Then I don't think there are 0 or 1 scum currently voting for yuma. The second scum can hammer him without problems.

It is a problem if they already expressed a town read on me. They would be an easy target tomorrow after I flip town.

2 scum could currently vote for yuma, but this makes still little sense because after lynching yuma and another townie kill at night, there are 4 townies against 3 scums with us basically having no PRs. That's basically a win for Mafia. The only guess what makes sense is that there are currently all 3 Mafia guys voting for yuma and waiting for someone to hammer him which makes that person look scummy.

I think it pretty highly likely that all three scum are on my wagon and that it took off that fast. 2 maybe, but I think 1 is the most likely number

Conclusion:
yuma can't be town if CF and Eevee (my current scum picks) are scum. So, unvote.

This conclusion makes no sense.

I now either believe in my CF and Eevee reads and then I should vote for yuma.
Or I should still trust my yuma read and should vote for one of Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky.

Here comes the flip that I didn't expect scum to make, but Qvist is doing a valiant job in trying to rationalize it. This solidifies my read on Qvist and will continue to vote for him.

I have to think about that.

[yuma]

sorry messed up on quotes

Let's do some analysis. Let's assume yuma is town.
Then I don't think there are 0 or 1 scum currently voting for yuma. The second scum can hammer him without problems.

It is a problem if they already expressed a town read on me. They would be an easy target tomorrow after I flip town.

2 scum could currently vote for yuma, but this makes still little sense because after lynching yuma and another townie kill at night, there are 4 townies against 3 scums with us basically having no PRs. That's basically a win for Mafia. The only guess what makes sense is that there are currently all 3 Mafia guys voting for yuma and waiting for someone to hammer him which makes that person look scummy.

I think it pretty highly likely that all three scum are on my wagon and that it took off that fast. 2 maybe, but I think 1 is the most likely number[/quote]

Conclusion:
yuma can't be town if CF and Eevee (my current scum picks) are scum. So, unvote.

This conclusion makes no sense.

I now either believe in my CF and Eevee reads and then I should vote for yuma.
Or I should still trust my yuma read and should vote for one of Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky.

Here comes the flip that I didn't expect scum to make, but Qvist is doing a valiant job in trying to rationalize it. This solidifies my read on Qvist and will continue to vote for him.

[Voltgloss]

2 scum could currently vote for yuma, but this makes still little sense because after lynching yuma and another townie kill at night, there are 4 townies against 3 scums with us basically having no PRs. That's basically a win for Mafia. The only guess what makes sense is that there are currently all 3 Mafia guys voting for yuma and waiting for someone to hammer him which makes that person look scummy.

I think it pretty highly likely that all three scum are on my wagon and that it took off that fast. 2 maybe, but I think 1 is the most likely number

yuma, did you mean to type "unlikely" at the bolded spot above?