Alright, here goes.
The first posts of real substance start
here, where Seprix votes for UoS for supposedly shutting down theory talk. There are some PSA posts here where people post things that are true but unhelpful, like Skip
pointing out that there's a Strongman. UoS and Seprix are both willing to get into real play here, so town points for each of them.
This post largely eliminates the possibility that they are partners to me, as I don't think scum talks to each other that directly, especially so early (I'm also pretty sure that UoS is town but I'm trying to unpack everything from the beginning and consider every possibility).
Witherweaver
moves back to RVS. It's scummy, but so blatantly so that I think actual scum would avoid it.
This is a major overreaction to a small number of votes- and in the next post, he also comments that one of the people voting for him has a good point. Both of these things are scummy, but also slightly less so coming from Seprix. Still, scum points for him here.
Okay,
Awaclus's first post. Let's pretend Seprix is Awaclus's partner here. How does he react to his partner coming under fire so early? I'd say he's more likely to direct his posts toward the people voting for Seprix, rather than address Seprix directly, which is what he does. He also votes for Seprix immediately thereafter, but without actually provding much justification, which I think he would be more careful to do if he was bussing. This is pointing back toward town!Seprix to me.
pacovf is quietly pushing the Seprix lynch in this and in other posts. I feel like he's also
subtly buddying UoS.
This post, as well as the post that WW is quoting, stuck out to me a bit. Regardless of my read on UoS, changing an RVS vote to a serious one is something that is seen as pretty universally scummy, and thus a “safe” thing for scum to vote based on. I get a slight partner vibe from the two of them here, but WW could also be looking for a townie's incorrect read to sheep.
Another WW post that gives me scum vibes. Scum likes to defend townies that have lots of suspicion, so that they can appear reasonable and can say “I told you so!” when the lynch goes through. WW's also savvy enough to avoid appearing too eager to jump on a wagon.
This post strengthens my town read on UoS. And WW
gets jokey in response, which is scummy.
chairs is absent for most of the early game, but that could just be chairs being chairs.
pacovf seems very calculated in his posts. Going to keep an eye on him.
This too, looks possibly like scum ready to sheep a towny. And
this is a post where he puts out a lot without committing to much of anything, and ends with a pretty safe vote on someone known for lurking. Scum read rising.
This is really weird to me. Like WW is making a point of not remember who Skip is. If one of them flips scum I think it's very likely that they're partners.
This post makes me disinclined to believe that Seprix and WW are partners, but I'll look for more interactions between the two of them.
Here's Awaclus, posting but making a point not to comment on anything that's happened or is happening. The biggest wagon at this moment is on WW. Doesn't want to say something incriminating about his partner?
This might be a nitpicky thing, but I think it's interesting that
here, Skip says that he “doesn't feel the WW wagon”, rather than saying that he thinks WW is town or providing a reason.
I realize I haven't been really commenting on
Teproc's posts. It's mostly that I find him towny, but as a wise man once said, Teproc always seems towny when scum. I don't want to discount him entirely.
chairs doing
wacky stuff. In my experience wacky chairs is town chairs. I also like
this post, which I guess I missed the first time.
This discussion eliminates the possibility of a UoS/Skip team to me, but I think UoS is town anyway, so whatever.
Teproc is the first person to bring up lynching Awaclus. Town.
Super hedgey post from mail-mi. Might also be WW's partner.
This might be indicative of a pacovf and Awaclus connection. pacovf being aware of his partner lurking, commenting on it without voting on it.
Awaclus post. Says next to nothing, but apparently isn't a fan of the WW lynch. Didn't speak out against it when it was within hammer range, though.
Okay, if this is bussing, it's super early and super quick. If WW is Awaclus's partner, he's either a) hoping the lynch doesn't actually go through, b) is going for a super-gutsy scum play, or possibly c) is just frustrated his partner is lurking so much. The second two don't seem like scum!WW plays to me. So less suspicion of WW now.
This post of pacovf's, on the other hand, points strongly toward an Awaclus/pacovf partnership. It's hedgey, noncomittal, ready to bus if need be but trying to push away from the lynch.
chairs tries to restart the WW wagon after people start voting for Awaclus. Major scum points here. And maybe
his partner notices?
Yeah, way scummy on pacovf. Will probably be voting for him.
And
this pushes me back toward a town read on WW.
Awaclus pushes chairs pretty hard, but there's a lot of WIFOM there. I don't know if there's real information to be had.
This, I think, is probably Awaclus trying to make WW look his partner, so it's even less likely that they actually are.
Okay, that's day one. Right now my reads are something like:
Town: UoS, WW, probably Teproc.
Scummy: pacovf>skip>Seprix>mail-mi>chairs.
I'll try and get to day two tomorrow morning.
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Topic: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Game Over, Town wins!) (Read 126639 times)