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Author Topic: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Fourth Quarter)  (Read 201439 times)

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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1025 on: May 28, 2013, 10:27:40 pm »

Vote Count 2.1
mcmcsalot (2): spiritbears, mail-mi
liopoil (1): mcmcsalot

Not voting: AHoppy, ashersky, Eevee, liopoi, Robz888, yuma, xeiron

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Deadline is 8pm forum time on Friday, May 24th.
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shraeye

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1026 on: May 28, 2013, 10:31:05 pm »

And of course, when I posted that deadline, I meant
Deadline is Saturday, June 8th at 8 p.m. FT
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1027 on: May 28, 2013, 10:37:34 pm »

Lastly, knowing that Robz is IC makes reading through the thread again and seeing all of his posts pretty hilarious... Was the when/if "scumslip" that ash called out a deliberate slip?

Yes!
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AHoppy

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1028 on: May 29, 2013, 01:04:56 am »

Alright, I'm only halfway through my re-read (post 470) and here is what I have so far (I need to quit and go to sleep, more to come once I get further).

Some small things first just to get them out there, not sure what they mean:
People who started the game with RVS: Mail-mi, ashersky, SB, nkirbit, Ahoppy, sudgy
-2 of those are confirmed town, not sure what to think if there are any scum in there, or if it even matters since the game picked up and people didn't ahve tiem to get their joke votes out there.  Probably means nothing

something interesting:
Total Mentions:
4: Eevee
3: liopoil
2: yuma, ashesrky, mail-mi, mgp, mcmc
1: robz, ahoppy, sb
0: nkirbit, sudgy
This is the number of mentions for scum partners when we did that survey earlier.  Note how the lynch and NK are both at 0, and a third confirmed town at 1.  This probably isn't useful, but  this chart may still come in handy.

A little more interesting:
Also, hilarious that you now think I'm being "better town."  Here's the formula for town!ashersky: post a lot, suggest some sort of claiming scheme, gain lots of suspicion, self-vote, unvote, get called out for unvoting the self-vote, self-vote again, catch scum but fail to be believed.  Next time I'm scum, I'm going to try and fake it.
So far he's on path to match this formula.  Could this be that faking it he hints at in the future? hmm...

Here's the most interesting thing I found when re-reading:

I don't even remember what mcmc's case on lio was, I haven't gotten to that point in the re-read.  But I looked out for lio and noticed some strange behavior.  There were at least 3 claims that he knows that he is town when there was no pressure applied to him.  I only saw other such claims once from eevee, and a second time from eevee when he was put under pressure.  Now this claim could most certainly be true, but I am inclined to think that it is actually pretty scummy to keep slipping in "hey don't forget I'm town".  Just feels a little off to me.

secondly, I found Eevee pretty towny.  Early he tried to get information out there, and he put out a good list of reads on people.  However, I think he may have slipped:
in his reads on everyone he says this:
I'm really interested in seeing how mail-mi proceeds to play (won't comment further on this, as it would be very dumb to tell him how he should act so I'd think he's towny).
Saying he won't advise m-m on how he should play to not come off as scummy.  However, later he analyzes liopoil's game:
I just laid out all my thoughts, but I have some free time now, I guess I could reread someone. liopoil? Lets do liopoil.

49 posts, 9 of them pre game.

-Criticizes RVS. I agree with this.

-Says ge would have chosen Eevee and MGP

Really liking the fast start this game has gotten  :D. I'm already re-reading! (well, that's mostly because I kinda skimmed to catch up.)
This was when liopoil himself only had posted theory and nothing about individual players.

-
As far as mafia picking their team, I'll send a PM to all players, 10 of them will be the same but the 11th will identify the first scum.
uh-oh, I think we can break the game by paraphrasing the flavour in our second PM. (or at least make one IC). This is kinda similar to the station-aligned thing in DS9. I think this should be addressed, and nobody should paraphrase any flavour....
This was liopoil's idea but for me it's a null tell as scum could propose it quite easily knowing the mods wouldn't let it happen.

Interestingly liopoils 15th post (
I do not find spiritbears scummy. I disagree with him not answering the question (although, really, he did answer it by saying he has no clue who he would pick, which is good enough for me). I don't agree with his read on ashersky either, but I see no reason to find him scummy for it.
) is the first one where he comments anything on any other player (instead of strategy, theory or jokes or praising how fast the game is moving).

-
Secondly I know you(spiritbears) know that you are town. The issue is no one else does; so if you are town, you want to help town by helping us know you are town. So cooperating/doing anything that is pro town is a really great way to help town. Hope that makes sense
just noticed this. It sounds like mcmc knows that spiritbears knows he's town. I understand what he means but still...
Good point in my opinion.

-
what MPG is saying makes sense. Before anyone has posted, if you had to lynch someone right away, it should be random. Then let's say the first post is anti-town. That person is suddenly the best lynch right then.  Nobody thinks we should random lynch.
Town points for this. The MGP witchhunt was running rampant (for no good reason imo), and mafia could have wanted to fan the flames by staying out of it or even joining them mob (assuming MGP is town).

-Suspects me but wants to hold off from voting so that his vote will eventually mean more.

At this point he does the reread and puts some thoughts down on people and I agree with most of the conclusions / point he makes. Comparing our lists, mine (top to bottom scum)

mail-mi
liopoil
ashersky
sudgy

mcmc
Robz
yuma
MGP

nkirbit
AHoppy
spiritbears

and his
mcmc
robz
sudgy
eevee
mail-mi
MGP
yuma
spiritbears
ashersky
Ahoppy
nkirbit


we seem to mostly agree. So, had I reread him before that big post, I would have been seriously suspected him for posting a lot but never saying anything until now, but it makes sense to need a reread to form an opinion so I'm fine with him now. Don't get a townread from anything, but not a scummy feel either. I'd move him to the middle of the pack in an updated list. Liopoil, I'd advice you to try to avoid just talking theory and taking more stances on people even without rereads (as the situations arise). The cautious way you've been playing (no voting at all!) makes it seem like you are trying to stay out of trouble.
The bolded part, he gives liopoil advice on how to be more towny (make some waves). 
also, both eevee and liopoil said they would have chosen eachother as scum partners.  Early, why would anyone suspect them of claiming eachother and actually both being scum?  Well, it's starting to look like there may be a correlation there.  The whole post feels like it is trying to help out lio, and take away any suspicion on him.  Right now FoS on Eevee/liopoil (too soon to spot pairings?)

I'll post more and read more into these two when I get time to read more.  I'm especially interested to get back to mcmc's liopoil case and compare it to what I'm seeing

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1029 on: May 29, 2013, 07:31:58 am »

good luck finding mcmc's case on me...

I don't say "I know I'm town" to defend myself, (because that's a terrible defense), I say it as a line of reasoning. Granted, it's not a great line of reasoning, because you guys can't trust it.
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AHoppy

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1030 on: May 29, 2013, 09:00:57 am »

I understand why you say it, I just think that it is always a reasonable assumption that does not have to be stated. Everyone wants to look like town, so everyone believes they are town. When you need to restate it over and over, it's almost like you're reassuring yourself that you really are town. Just doesn't feel right to me.

spiritbears

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1031 on: May 29, 2013, 09:58:29 am »

If my memory serves, liocase wasn't much more than that...."I've played with Lio s while bunch, this feels like scum!Lio"
[Major parsphrasingnhereh
Hey mc whst about ...... Or ......or ... ?????
Mc:  Lios scum. I'm sure of it....
Lio. I'm town, that's not a case
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #1032 on: May 29, 2013, 03:17:55 pm »

Total Mentions:
4: Eevee
3: liopoil
2: yuma, ashesrky, mail-mi, mgp, mcmc
1: robz, ahoppy, sb
0: nkirbit, sudgy

An eevee lynch looks quite good.
The fact that eevee tops this list could actually mean that eevee had the highest probability of becoming scum in this game.

We already know that the "most unobvious" according to this list, nkirbit and sudgy are not scum. I believe none in the next step, robz, ahoppy and sb are scum eihter. So the number of mentions clearly isn't that off.
Why not start lynching from the top?
vote: eevee
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1033 on: May 29, 2013, 03:46:15 pm »

except that scum didn't necessarily tell the truth about who they would pick.
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1034 on: May 29, 2013, 04:11:15 pm »

except that scum didn't necessarily tell the truth about who they would pick.
True.
Eevee could have been on 5 or 6 if they had.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1035 on: May 29, 2013, 04:58:28 pm »

or he's higher than he should be.
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1036 on: May 29, 2013, 05:02:50 pm »

And we will find out by lynching him.
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AHoppy

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1037 on: May 29, 2013, 05:10:25 pm »

But we can't really afford another mislynch...

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1038 on: May 29, 2013, 05:14:41 pm »

...especially because if we follow xeiron's plan, I'm next  :P
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AHoppy

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1039 on: May 29, 2013, 05:16:04 pm »

Yet another unpressured town claim :P

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1040 on: May 29, 2013, 05:33:43 pm »

That one actually had nothing to do with being town. I don't want to be lynched no matter what my alignment is.  honestly,  I find claiming town when actually under pressure to be more scummy (still not much).
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1041 on: May 29, 2013, 05:35:36 pm »

Yet another unpressured town claim :P

Eevee/liopoil scum team, I think so. I had suspicions of eevee that were put out if mind because he responded well. But scum can respond very well and townie when given the chance. The fact that I had suspicions in the first place still hold true.

Out of these two I would very much like to lynch liopoil first.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1042 on: May 29, 2013, 05:44:02 pm »

Yet another unpressured town claim :P

Eevee/liopoil scum team, I think so. I had suspicions of eevee that were put out if mind because he responded well. But scum can respond very well and townie when given the chance. The fact that I had suspicions in the first place still hold true.

Out of these two I would very much like to lynch liopoil first.
Why? You've done nothing but tunnel her this game.
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1043 on: May 29, 2013, 05:46:17 pm »

Okay how about this, eevee/liopoil/spiritbears. Eevee is the most popular pick(makes sense to be picked and fills vet requirement many people mentioned) liopoil also highly popular pick(fits nicely in the middle of vet and newbie) spirit I have already said he makes an easily defendable partner due to his past of being a confuse townie(fills in the newbie scum pick)

In that team composition(vet/middle/newbie) I would expect to see the vet take a laid back passive approach, the middle to take and aggressive approach, and the newbie to try to look like town.

Also liopoil has been buddying eevee a lot, I don't remember town!liopoil buddying many people(full disclosure I can't remember scum!liopoil doing it either)
Lastly someone said spirit seemed like town because he was playing similarly, but I find him slightly scummy for pushing robz pretty hard, I know I missed some stuff but if I remember correctly spiritbears pushed the robz lynch quite a bit, that fits something a newbie scum player would do.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1044 on: May 29, 2013, 05:57:42 pm »

First, I'll say again what I emphatically said Day 1 of samurai and ninja's where I was almost mislynched because a sudgy-liopoil team made sense:

it is too early to be calling scumteams. So many people have called so many scumteams so many times and they're always always wrong. It is a waste of time. Lynch people because they look scummy individually.

second I KNOW nobody has done a re-read of me because nobody has mentioned the REAL reasons a person might find me scummy. for instance, I have been incredibly inconsistant this game, and that would be evident upon a re-read. I am still waiting for your case on me, mcmc.

I am partially guilty of not doing the work too. right now, Yuma and Ashersky are my top suspects, but I am not pushing a case on them yet because I have not completed my read yet.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (First Day of School! First Day of School!)
« Reply #1045 on: May 29, 2013, 05:59:52 pm »

Total Mentions:
4: Eevee
3: liopoil
2: yuma, ashesrky, mail-mi, mgp, mcmc
1: robz, ahoppy, sb
0: nkirbit, sudgy

An eevee lynch looks quite good.
The fact that eevee tops this list could actually mean that eevee had the highest probability of becoming scum in this game.

We already know that the "most unobvious" according to this list, nkirbit and sudgy are not scum. I believe none in the next step, robz, ahoppy and sb are scum eihter. So the number of mentions clearly isn't that off.
Why not start lynching from the top?
vote: eevee

Say what? I know you missed most of day1, but I'll have you remember that this is day2. Your vote here is completely ignoring everything that we have learned from yesterday! And I would say that we learned a fair amount...

Your vote above might have been a good idea say during RVS or immediately after it yesterday. But today!?! No. Not w/o anything else to back up an eevee lynch, and from your posts above it appears you don't have anything else to back it up.

vote: xeiron for proposing a completely anti-town suggestion that I am surprised no one has yet called him out for, and for doing it in a scummy way (shortly after I started suggesting that others take a look at xeiron).
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1046 on: May 29, 2013, 06:12:02 pm »

it's only slightly better than random lynch now that I think about it... So yeah, let's not do that.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1047 on: May 29, 2013, 06:20:28 pm »

it's only slightly better than random lynch now that I think about it... So yeah, let's not do that.

exactly! Might as well have said: "Hey guys! Let's just forget that yesterday even happened! And ignore everything that we learned from it! And lynch someone for a reason that is completely manipulatable by scum! Yeeehaaaw!!!"
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1048 on: May 29, 2013, 06:29:25 pm »

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spiritbears

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Re: Mafia XXV: Mean Girls (Second Quarter Already?)
« Reply #1049 on: May 29, 2013, 06:42:06 pm »

Lets see mc. You say my going after robz was scummy?? But you meanwhile didn't help at all. You only would say "you know robz is town" (well you said it about me too earlier, but flipped). No this reads like omagus to me.  You hardly contribute all game and then when I vote you, I am immediately scum.  Your game is off. Way off. And I'm still 100%not sure your scum but you sure aren't helpful.
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