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[2.71828.....]

faust does not feel extremely townie to me, but we totally shouldn't lynch him D1

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay. For reasons I cannot disclose, I think it is likely that there are multiple scum in relatively high positions in the draft. Space being high up is interesting for reasons that I also cannot discuss. I might have to run some probabilities.

Argh, faust.. not good! You know I'm liable to scumread you when you don't make sense, and my position and role make perfect sense. You also know I'm perfectly capable of reasoning excessively about probabilities, and most people here who've played with me before in a setuppy game are well aware of it too. That makes it really interesting that you decide to push me anyway. Your behaviour doesn't give me the warmest of fuzzies about you or your motivations here :-(

Vote: faust

PPE 10+3

What do you mean, your position and role make perfect sense?

I mean I came second in the drafting order and risked picking the PR I most wanted because I was happy enough to gamble on the grounds that there are plenty of other townies to suck up the slightly-less-good roles if I didn't get the good one I wanted. Faust clearly didn't pick that one, and he knows I know for definite.

Incidentally, I have zero interest in claiming which PR I took until after faust claims which one he took. I'd rather like other people not to indulge him by narrowing his pool by giving their own claims, either. Plus, I want there to be uncertainty for the scums about exactly what town roles are in the game to minimize their chance of neutralizing me or other useful PRs N1.

[2.71828.....]

Personally, I thought the role slots were fairly well balanced and do not believe there was a clear "top 5 roles" or whatever for town

[Witherweaver]

How would Faust have known that, until just now?  I'm not sure I'm completely following.

[Witherweaver]

I'm getting the impression I thought about the setup differently than everyone else.

[Galzria]

How would Faust have known that, until just now?  I'm not sure I'm completely following.

This. He can't.

[Galzria]

Personally, I thought the role slots were fairly well balanced and do not believe there was a clear "top 5 roles" or whatever for town

There were good choices in most slots for both factions.

[Galzria]

How would Faust have known that, until just now?  I'm not sure I'm completely following.

This. He can't.

To be clear - I don't think it's scummy for Space to have stated what they did. Just noting it's inaccuracy.

[ashersky]

Personally, I thought the role slots were fairly well balanced and do not believe there was a clear "top 5 roles" or whatever for town

There was without a doubt "top 5 roles" for each faction.

I think there was no consensus "#1 role" for town.  Like, if faust is town, he definitely SHOULD have taken one of only a handful of options.  If he used the top choice in the game on The Cabin, for example, he should retire from mafia forever.

[faust]

Yeah, obviously I did not know anything about that and my reasons for voting Space are different.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

How would Faust have known that, until just now?  I'm not sure I'm completely following.

I think Space was trying to say that faust knows that Space knows whether they picked the same slot because if Space got the PR, faust didn't pick that slot but if they didn't, faust did.

[Galzria]

When we finally do the mass claim of roles, we should do them in reverse draft order.  I think that also gives fewer ways to lie about what you got.

Because of what I know, I strongly disagree - but I'm debating claiming now because of my knowledge. It breaks what I would hope to achieve by claiming top down (lowest numerical to highest), but gives town an important piece of information.

Sleeping on this -

You're absolutely correct I think in that the general gamelan (best overall for town) would be to go in reverse drafting order for claims. Scum can't safely fake a VT claim if they don't know what above (numerically lower) them has been taken. If they claim to be a VT from The Swan for example, and no Swan claims are future forthcoming, they'll be caught.

That said... I still have strong reasons to want 1-7 before I claim. But I wouldn't fight going 17 -> 1 if we did it

[faust]

Robz has approved me saying this:

If my assumptions about what happened are correct, Space has an about 4% chance of being town.

[Galzria]

Robz, can we speculate openly about OTHER people's guesses? You stated simply that we cannot hint at or reveal any informant whatsoever about our OWN.

[Robz888]

Robz, can we speculate openly about OTHER people's guesses? You stated simply that we cannot hint at or reveal any informant whatsoever about our OWN.

Perhaps if you can do so in a manner that does not reveal or suggest your own guess. It would be a good idea to preview what you want to say with the mods first.

[Galzria]

 Faust, does that help? Preview whatever you need to. Don't get yourself MOD killed. But can you work with that?

[faust]

Faust, does that help? Preview whatever you need to. Don't get yourself MOD killed. But can you work with that?

No I can't really. I already previewed something along those lines to Robz and he said I cannot post it.

[Qvist]

So, as I said I believe faust is town. So I will believe him. Although I have no idea how he could know that on day 1.

Vote: space

If space flips town, I know who to vote for in the next day.

[Witherweaver]

So, as I said I believe faust is town. So I will believe him. Although I have no idea how he could know that on day 1.

Vote: space

If space flips town, I know who to vote for in the next day.

I don't like this line of thinking.  I don't think Space being town makes Faust a necessarily good lynch.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

So, as I said I believe faust is town. So I will believe him. Although I have no idea how he could know that on day 1.

Vote: space

If space flips town, I know who to vote for in the next day.

Pretty much this. Not sure if I'm quite there yet.

[Galzria]

Faust, do you believe the SK got a significant boost to draft position?

[Witherweaver]

Faust can you say whether or not your calculations rely on Mafia using an optimal bidding strategy?

[faust]

Will check if I'm allowed to answer these.

[Qvist]

Why not? If he is that confident about space being not town...
Sorry this is only my third game, so please clarify why.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Faust, how confident are you in your calculation that there's only a 4% chance of Space being town?