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[Robz888]

I was planning on doing some re-reading today on metro ride home. I hate posting to the effect of "I'm going to do this later," but well, there it is.

Oh the Metro. Good times there...

Looking forward to what you have to say. But I do think it is interesting that you first want to lynch mail-mi or me but second want to do the reread. I think you might have those two reversed...

PPE: And that you have nkirbit and shraeye as town reads. Why do a reread at all. Looks like you already have this game figured out!

Yuma, this is not you.* Of course you know that I will totally re-evaluate these opinions if I see conflicting evidence in the re-read.

*because you are scum

Will you? When have you ever re-evaluated anything once you had your mind set on it? Your nice little astricks that you added shows this. You have a preconceived notion in your head. You are stuck on it. You won't change it. Why? Because you will turn what ever evidence there is into something that you will interpret as scummy. I could be the towniest person in this game and you would come out with a scum read. This reads Pirates II all over it. You might be right about mail-mi, but you are wrong about me and I guarantee that you won't change your opinion during a reread. The question for me is wether or not town!Robz won't change his opinion because he is stubborn or because scum!Robz won't change his opinion because he thinks I am an easy mislynch.

I don't think this is true AT ALL. I change my mind all the time. I've changed it this game--I thought nkirbit was super scummy yesterday, and no longer think that. I wen tback and forth on ash a lot on Day 1. Am I known for stubbornly clinging to my views, or something? That would be an unearned reputation, I think. Even in Pirates II, I wasn't deadset on my views until the re-read. I was deadset on Galz, but of course the re-read actually did confirm that and I got it right. Way off on the other two--I'm not like praising my scumhunting, here--but that wasn't really an example of what you're accusing me of here.

I don't have a preconceived notion, I have a notion--one that you are currently solidfying. I think you believe that I will correctly peg you as scum when I DO re-read you, and are trying to discredit me before that.

[yuma]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

[Robz888]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

I explained why I have a scumread on you. Isn't it a good thing that I haven't reread yet? Shouldn't you be thinking, "Ah, surely Robz will see how townie on am, after he informs himself of my statements."

[yuma]

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

I explained why I have a scumread on you. Isn't it a good thing that I haven't reread yet? Shouldn't you be thinking, "Ah, surely Robz will see how townie on am, after he informs himself of my statements."

What is the reason? I don't know what it is.

[Robz888]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

[Robz888]

So that, in addition to the fact that I find shraeye townie and nkirbit increasingly townie, and there's a little bit of POE.

[yuma]

so shraeye.... I think he is the only player that I haven't totally reread this game at some point or another.

Day1 I feel like is pretty standard shraeye. He was elusive with his reads. Asked a lot of questions. Voted occasionally, but wasn't a leading voice until his case on voltgloss. I get why shraeye doesn't like posting scum to chum lists. I do. But it does make reading shraeye himself difficult. Through a reread I know that shraeye had scum reads on nkirbit, seemed to be of voltaire (but I don't think he ever fully expressed it), has no read on ashersky whatsoever.

This post jumped out to me as a possible source for shraeye's case on voltgloss: (that is a reason for developing a case)

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

Well, in that regard, I still like ash's suspicions on Voltgloss more than your "he just is a gut-feel"-vote on ash, where you also keep sheeping any and all other points that people bring up against ash.

And just 2 posts later shraeye comes out with his case on voltgloss... I feel frustrated that this case didn't actually get analyzed. But instead it was just the "slip" that was analyzed...

But let's actually look at it now... point by point. (realizing of course that we know now that voltgloss is town, thus meaning the case is incorrect, but that isn't the point, the point is why did he make it and what does it say about him?)

1. setting up future mislynches. First, I think this is always going to be a bad point. mcmc will disagree with me because I think he is the father of this concept. But setting up future mislynches... is I think extremely difficult to pull off as scum. It means you have to be in absolutely complete control of the game and have to be a leading voice over town. I think it is something you can go back and prove after a series of days, but to try and show it day1... That's a stretch. I don't know if shraeye meant to show that the most important points were given first, but if he did then this case is already pretty bad.

2. Tons of opened ended questions... "what do you think of..." I don't see how this is scummy. I know that for new scum players, this can sometimes be seen as a "testing the waters" move. But voltgloss is certainly not new to this game. It was typical play of a vet who likes to get people to take stances and put down their opinions.

3. demanding people make lists... shraeye gives the same reasoning as #2 for why this is scummy. Again, I get why shraeye might think this is bad for town, but I don't get why he thinks it is scummy.

4. the slips. See my other posts for why I think this was bad.

So really, I disagree with the entire case that shraeye came up with. I for one know that I was distracted enough by the slips that I wasn't able to fully go through the case itself. I think others did the exact same thing, in fact I know they did, because in rereading it appears only Robz said anything about the case itself. He said this:

Robz even said this:

Yeah, forget the rest of your case. That's... that's significant.

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

[Robz888]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

But you're just getting ahead of yourself here, man. I haven't even voted for you.

[Voltaire]

I still don't like yuma's I-told-you-so stuff from D2. Robz says it best here

And also, thee's something to this as a self-fulfilling prophecy, because you put out this sort of in-your-face statement, I Told You So (you even bolded it!), that we shouldn't have done that lynch and that there will be ntohing to talk about because of it. So of course, we aren't doing much flip analysis because we are arguing about whether your statement was correct.

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

which brings me back to this (updated):

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's really no defense yuma can actually give give against 1 (but that's not his fault). It's a fundamentals thing (like many political elections, election junky nerd moment). And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

We could be in lylo. Say SK is dead, 2 mafia, we mislynch, mafia kills, we lose. So I am not comfortable voting for anyone yet, because I basically I need to rank my own "case" on everyone against each other if we possibly only have one more chance.

I am currently treating Robz as town. It's basically my only "strong" town read.

PPE: I see the Robz-yuma stuff has been going on while I was working on this post. Yuma comes off scummier for it. It makes me feel much better actually.

[shraeye]

It is less about me being in a tight spot than it is about town being in a tight spot. Because right now I feel like I am the most likely to be lynched today with multiple people suspecting me. I do. And all of it is based off me still being alive from what I can tell. Nothing else has been mentioned, so it appears thats all it is. It puts town in a bad spot because it appears to be a pretty easy mislynch that is being pushed through.

You think your lynch is the most likely as of this post?

Is it just because multiple people suspect you, or anything else.

While I'm asking questions, what do you think of the likelihood that either Eevee or Jorbles was scum?

[shraeye]

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

But you're just getting ahead of yourself here, man. I haven't even voted for you.

Why am I getting ahead of myself. If you bring me up and I think it is wrong I will react back regardless of whether or not someone is voting for me (see voltaire and spiritbears on me in SimpleMafia).

(And you have already said that you will likely be voting for me or mail-mi, so you basically are 50% voting for me at this point.)

[shraeye]

And just 2 posts later shraeye comes out with his case on voltgloss... I feel frustrated that this case didn't actually get analyzed. But instead it was just the "slip" that was analyzed...

I feel frustrated too.  I liked the case, and really had the tags as just a part of it.  But when Voltgloss had an explanatino that didn't add up in my mind, that became the key reason, and even I overfocused on it. 

1. setting up future mislynches. First, I think this is always going to be a bad point. mcmc will disagree with me because I think he is the father of this concept. But setting up future mislynches... is I think extremely difficult to pull off as scum. It means you have to be in absolutely complete control of the game and have to be a leading voice over town. I think it is something you can go back and prove after a series of days, but to try and show it day1... That's a stretch. I don't know if shraeye meant to show that the most important points were given first, but if he did then this case is already pretty bad.

I didn't mean for the points to be organized like that.  I make my rereads into a Notepad file, and then copy/paste things together as I notice trends and linked topics.  They just got organized the way that they did on the page out of mostly chance, and they'll have a slight correspondence with time at which I first noticed a particular trend occuring. That is a terribly contructed sentence.  I don't always love the mislynch argument, but I think that if any player is going to pull off a set of orchestrated lynches, it's Voltgloss, especially if he has daychat to try to give directions to his partner to help shut down distractions and focus on his plan.  Combining this with the control over town that Voltgloss was ALREADY showing, and the lists that I think help scum more than town. Those are my case thoughts.

[yuma]

2. Lio was town

which brings me back to this (updated):

Players of unknown alignment in gray. I don't see any way UoS wasn't our cop so he's green. I'm leaving ash gray for now, he seems far less clear.

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

YMMV, but consider me on the Volt wagon. Or off, if you'd prefer what actually happened.

There's really no defense yuma can actually give give against 1 (but that's not his fault). It's a fundamentals thing (like many political elections, election junky nerd moment). And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

We could be in lylo. Say SK is dead, 2 mafia, we mislynch, mafia kills, we lose. So I am not comfortable voting for anyone yet, because I basically I need to rank my own "case" on everyone against each other if we possibly only have one more chance.

I am currently treating Robz as town. It's basically my only "strong" town read.

PPE: I see the Robz-yuma stuff has been going on while I was working on this post. Yuma comes off scummier for it. It makes me feel much better actually.

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

To add to that though, 1. if I were mafia then being on the lio lynch (being really the deciding vote on the lio wagon--that is the vote that made nkirbit unlikely to happen thus making lio the eminent lynch) would have been a bad move to do the PoE.

Why is Robz a "strong" townread? Why aren't you applying the same logic of "yuma is still alive" to me, but not to him? If anyone has a reputation of being killed off during nights when he is town it is him, not me.

And lastly... why do I come off scummy because of my conversation with Robz?

[Voltaire]

Finishing updating the D1 votes and adding D2. Players of unknown alignment in gray (with the exception of UoChairs).

DAY ONE

Voltgloss (7): shraeye, ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, nkirbit, Jorbles, mail-mi, (Voltaire)
Robz888 (1): Voltgloss
ashersky (1): yuma
Jorbles (1): UmbrageOfSnow

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Voltaire

DAY TWO

nkirbit (1): Voltaire
Robz888 (2): liopoil, Jorbles
liopoil (5): nkirbit, Robz888, mail-mi, Yuma, shraeye

Not Voting (1): Eevee

[shraeye]

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

What?  why is lio town a damning argument for yuma?  nkirbit/Robz were both sold on liopoil, and I was the hammerer.  Why pick yuma out of that crowd and assign particular blame to him??

And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

what comments?

[shraeye]

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

Yes i agree; and it's especially hard because we can't be sure of ash/Eevee/Jorbles' alignments.

[Voltaire]

Couple of things. First this sort of wagon analysis is just going to get you into trouble. Look back to CLUE where the entire scum team was off wagon day1. I am positive shraeye will agree with me here as he has been decrying this method of scum hunting for a while now.

To add to that though, 1. if I were mafia then being on the lio lynch (being really the deciding vote on the lio wagon--that is the vote that made nkirbit unlikely to happen thus making lio the eminent lynch) would have been a bad move to do the PoE.

Why is Robz a "strong" townread? Why aren't you applying the same logic of "yuma is still alive" to me, but not to him? If anyone has a reputation of being killed off during nights when he is town it is him, not me.

And lastly... why do I come off scummy because of my conversation with Robz?

Can you explain your "to add to that"? I'm not following.

Robz is a "strong" read because I don't have any strong reads in this game and he's the least uncertain. We have been reaching very similar conclusions. So I think that either he is town or he is scum who is happy to have me agreeing with him. I am working as though it is the former.

And you come off scummy in your conversation here:

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

That isn't a read. That is bad PoE. You have done nothing to show me why I am scum. Why does this apply, but not apply to you? Or to shraeye? Or to voltaire. I get why it probably doesn't apply to mail-mi, or nkirbit. But you are picking a situation, singling me out and calling it a scum read... That is just bad.

That is a read. You are trying to belittle is reads so they don't seem useful.

No... What I am doing is expressing my frustration in that you think I am scum, but have yet to give a good reason as to why you think this. Thus I can only figure... now that you have said you haven't reread... that you have developed an idea based off? Nothing? Something? What? I have asked once... twice already and have not been given an answer. Now you say you will give me an answer after you have reread? Seems like you already know what you are going to find. Don't you think?

And this too.

[Voltaire]

But the biggest case on yuma is two-fold:

1. He is alive (Robz has covered this, but shraeye made the best point that 2 teams have to have chosen not to kill yuma at any point)
2. Lio was town

What?  why is lio town a damning argument for yuma?  nkirbit/Robz were both sold on liopoil, and I was the hammerer.  Why pick yuma out of that crowd and assign particular blame to him??

And the lio thing is assumption-driven POE (and definitely a very minor point compared to 1). I figured it was worth mentioning though because of lio's comments.

what comments?

You're missing that 2 is related to the vote counts. Here's what lio said (NOTE: turns out it was Jorbles. I realized this when I went back for the quote). It has me thinking. I refuse to believe that wagons are not useful.

Do you think all the scum were on the wagon because if you think even one of them was off wagon it makes as much sense to go offwagon? From your perspective it makes more sense to go offwagon. (eliminating yourself you get 50% chance of scum offwagon if you think there's one scum there vs 33% chance of scum on wagon if there's 2 scum there) I see yuma is making a case on me, which I will address when I've caught up on my reads. I have an excuse for lurking the last few days which you may or may not believe because it involves RL stuff, but I'll come to that in the next post.

[Voltaire]

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

What's the rest of this? You've posted in reply to me and Robz since.

[mail-mi]

@yuma on shraeye: This does look like shraeye could be setting up a fake case for Voltgloss. I need to reread him.

@D2 wagon analysis: I'm probably jumping into a whole boatload of WIFOM, but because he is the only player alive that wasn't on lio, and that scum killed 2 off wagon, I have a townier read on volt.

I reread NK. After that, I think I'm most comfortable with a Vote: Robz

what are your thoughts on Nkirbit?  What made you want to voet robz based on the reread of nkirbit?

I think he is townier than others were making him out to be yesterday, and of the two people I've reread, Robz was the scummier one.

[yuma]

That is it for now. I need to get lunch ready for wife.

What's the rest of this? You've posted in reply to me and Robz since.

This is me annoyed.

You want me to do the rest of the reread (so more of day1, day2 and day3) in between the time I came back from having lunch (3:25 my time according to my first post since being back) and the time when you are calling me out? (3:41 my time) So a whole 16 minutes?

Yeah, let me whip that up for you... oh and reply to the comments that I did reply to because there were there so that I woulnd't leave people hanging.

You will get my reread when you get it. I am certainly not on your (or anyone else's) timetable here. So bug off.

[shraeye]

mail-mi...off the top of your head, what do you think of yuma?

[Voltaire]

So bug off.

This sure makes the game fun.