Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[ashersky]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I'm not actually at L-1, you know.  No one is.

[Voltaire]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

[ashersky]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

On  my scumreads:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

On why I didn’t post for so long:

Clearly I was around.  I was posting everywhere else.  I was definitely irritated.  Then I wanted to see how long I could go without anyone saying anything.  That lasted longer than I thought.  Then I wondered how long after that I could go.  I believe had I not posted now, I would have gotten to L-1 or hammered in another 24 hours.  That would have been okay, I think.  As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Robz’s imploration was cool, though, so I broke silence.

[nkirbit]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

[nkirbit]

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

[ashersky]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

My Voltgloss case is the much weaker of the two, which you've pointed out.  But I admitted as much from the beginning.  Also, I didn't vote for Voltgloss, so the line I bolded above is just trying to rile things up where there are no things.

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.

[Voltgloss]

Phone posting.  Will have limited access until around 4 EST.

Glad to see ash back.  He's right that SK is more important lynch because lynching SK reduces the killing, where lynching mafia doesn't until you hit both. He's wrong about me being SK but its a reasonable argument - basically, "look at past games where person X was scum and look for similarities.". Which is a good exercise.  To be complete though, you also need to look at past games where that person was town, again for similarities.

I have no apology for trying to drive the town into talking more.  When a talkative player disappears, someone has to drive things.  Nor do I care much about nkirbit and shraeye refusing to talk on my "terms.".  The point is to get people talking.  Mission accomplished.

Ash, are you thinking generic PR claims or specific ones?  How does UoS's claim change things in your view, if at all?

[ashersky]

Three generic is best, I believe.  UoS is one.  We need two more.  Only if we have 4 claims do we need specifics.

[shraeye]

What do you think about ash?

I really don't care how much he posts or whatever.  I don't understand people who are like "hey, ash is acting crazy again...this time REALLY crazy...that means he's scum!!"  And I also don't understand the people who are defending ash when he hasn't done anything, really.  Ash is like pure null for me.  I suppose if everything ash did was done by a different player, I would have more to say, but I'm not phased by ash pulling any sort of crazy stunt.

he's not somebody we're going to catch by analyzing how crazy he's being.  And he's certainly not somebody we'll catch by crossing our fingers and saying "I hope this time crazy-ash is scum-ash"...that's not scumhunting, that's hoping.

[shraeye]

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

Yeah, I'm willing to discuss this idea, but I disagree with it.  I don't have any numbers to back me up, but I think that having more than one kill per night mucks up the idea of "even parity".  We have an even number of people, and I think theorel has shown how that makes lynching correctly harder or something, but if we nolynch, it's possible that we'll still have an even number of people tomorrow. 

I feel like all that does is give us one less opportunity to lynch scum, which you've pointed out is town's way of getting info.  We just can't be starting day2 with WagonAnalysis 101.  Things won't necessarily be as we expect them, and as soon as we publicly set an idea of how we expect things to happen, scum can start avoiding the things that we might normally catch them with.

[shraeye]

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

Well, in that regard, I still like ash's suspicions on Voltgloss more than your "he just is a gut-feel"-vote on ash, where you also keep sheeping any and all other points that people bring up against ash.

[yuma]

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Don't have a lot of time, heading into work to start up my 7-on. But wanted to respond to this.

Couple of things:

- my reads aren't too strong for D1. (if you think my case is flimsy and reasoning is flawed, I can't argue what you think. I think they are just fine, but I guess we will see after your flip) I have never said I know you are mafia (something that you have done, with your nice 99% estimation). I think you have a good chance of being mafia. If you aren't, well then we need to have a nice discussion about you playing ridiculously as town.
- The XYZ thing. Isn't that what I am saying here. "ash, has really seemed to be doing (playing up his meta), (overly posting only theory content), (not posting for extended periods), which is something I'd expect from scum!ash, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum." Isn't that what I have been saying this whole time? Not those exact words, sure, but more or less?
- I did have a reaction to you not posting for 3.5 days. I don't know how you can say otherwise? I was the one that repeatedly pointed it out, that brought people to notice it. That told people they should vote you because of it! They might have eventually, but I was keeping track, starting with 1 day out! You wanted me to react more? How so? By saying "ash is 100% mafia for mega-lurking!!!" (wouldn't that violate your rule above?) Or maybe I could vote you again? (that would do a lot of good) Or maybe I could mega-lurk to try and make my point and threaten to self-hammer (cause that would be just completely stupid and worthless, so hell... maybe I should try it, cause it seems to be working find with you).
- My response to your absence wasn't to find you less scummy for it. My point in the post you are quoting is that I was suspicious of you above and beyond your being mega-lurky. AND that your being mega-lurky added to it! How is that not completely obvious to you?

- I don't like cases that rely on the idea of mafia manipulating quotes and trying to deceive, but it isn't something I would put beyond ash (especially if he is trying to establish his play style as such) but man, he is just wrong about all of the points about me.

nothing has changed. I didn't really expect anything to change.

[Voltaire]

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

I do not think No Lynch is a good idea. Shraeye pointed out some good reasons (we could have two kills and go back to even), but even when mafia can co-ordinate they still have to take stands, and if they're bad at co-ordinating then they'll become obvious. In fact, I think it's more important than normal not to no-lynch, because if we no-lynch, we have no flips at all going into D2, and potentially as many as three deaths.

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

1. Voltgloss - Voltgloss's actions I see as pro-town and as such I have a town read on him. If he's mafia, he's yuma-style helping town early mafia, and so there's nothing wrong with having him around. Nkirbit also raises a good point - have you looked over his SK game, and are there similarities? I don't think that's necessarily a productive line of reasoning and as such do not plan on doing it myself.

2. Yuma - this cannot lead to a 99% certainty. While I agree that yuma has made at least one incorrect case (me!), he did not have no reaction to you disappearing and incorrect cases are not a scumtell. Is this really your entire case on him?

3. See 2.

As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Why do you have this need to have town talk about you??? We were doing just fine, in my opinion. If you're town, you took us away from what we were doing and made us talk about you. Why? People were already taking stands about you.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

It is Tuesday. Please disregard.

[Voltaire]

2) our soft deadline should be no later than Wednesday.

Soft deadline 10 PM forum time tonight? Or something close to that? We're still pretty spread-out at the moment.

It is Tuesday. Please disregard.

Actually, relevant. If this is the soft deadline, I won't be able to be online for it.

[Jorbles]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

No lynch isn't nearly as useful in this scenario because there will be little benefits from the night actions we need to lynch someone so we can at least have something modconfirmed to go on D2. Although I see that there would be benefits if all the PRs claimed.

[Jorbles]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I assume you are so insistent because you don't believe UoS's claim? If he faked the other scum team will take him out eventually.

[Jorbles]

I have reasons for believing those three statements, based on what has been posted in the thread so far.  I’m happy to share if people care.

[snip]

With that, my final bit of the plan: vote: no lynch.  We have an even number of players, so no lynch doesn’t hurt us.  And we just get so very little out of a D1 lynch in this game.  I’ll rescind No Lynch plans if PRs won’t claim.  In that case, intent to hammer myself instead.

1. Obviously.
2. Explain? I don't follow how we don't get what we always get out of a D1 lynch - wagon analysis and interactions. (Please stop with the self-voting nonsense).

On No Lynch: it’s an “out of left field” sort of idea, inspired by recent No Lynch actions of which I’ve been a part.  I fully agree that there is something to be said for how a D1 lynch in this game nets us the same information as any other D1 lynch.  However, as I believe shraeye pointed out, DayChat throws a wrench into this.  Mafia will coordinate where they end up on wagons.  SK is basically a Town Vig who wants to kill everyone.  So I believe that wagon analysis will be necessarily flawed due to manipulation by mafia, and that SK hunting is a whole different animal/process.  Those are my main reasons for feeling like, taking a chance on No Lynch while we have even parity isn’t a terrible plan.  I’m not sure it is the right plan, and I hope that some folks would at least discuss it.

On  my scumreads:

Voltgloss as SK: There is “leading town Voltgloss” and then there is “TOWN LEADING Voltgloss.”  Meta-based argument of course, but I think that one is town!Voltgloss and the other is scum!Voltgloss.  So how do you tell them apart?  It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one.   Plus, Voltgloss is the only person to ever win a game as an SK, so that’s worth re-reading.  I think you’d find similarities.

Yuma as mafia: More meta, I think, but he’s different in this game.  His cases are flimsy, his reasoning is flawed, his reads are too strong for D1.  I feel like a lot of town!yuma’s D1 cases go something like “well, XYZ has really seemed to be doing ABC, which is something I’d expect from scum!XYZ, so, I think he has a better chance than not of being scum.”  This game’s Yuma instead has a hardcore tunnel mentality on me already, and it didn’t change at all when I didn’t post for 3.5 days.  Let me repeat that: Yuma had no reaction whatsoever to me not posting.  I think that’s really, really off.  He responded to my absence with “my case on ash is not his absence.”  Town!yuma flips a lid at a mega-lurk on purpose.   Yuma is very hard to read, especially D1.  But I’m liking my read today, based on these things.

Yuma’s partner: I think vets will agree with me on my points about Yuma, whether they agree it makes him scum or not.  So the fact that only Voltaire (I think) has pointed out the flaws in yuma’s case speaks to the fact that he has a veteran partner, or one that is following orders in the daychat QT.  Typical town!Robz, as an example, would have fought Yuma on these points, I think.  Also, in letting folks sheepily vote me with no reasons is something I expect both town!yuma and other town!vets to react a bit more to those types of votes.  Again, very few reactions whatsoever.

On why I didn’t post for so long:

Clearly I was around.  I was posting everywhere else.  I was definitely irritated.  Then I wanted to see how long I could go without anyone saying anything.  That lasted longer than I thought.  Then I wondered how long after that I could go.  I believe had I not posted now, I would have gotten to L-1 or hammered in another 24 hours.  That would have been okay, I think.  As I read along, I saw that having something to discuss (me not being around) was forcing folks to take stands or give themselves away a bit.  They had to take a stand eventually.  After my flip, you’d have something to analyse, at least.

Robz’s imploration was cool, though, so I broke silence.

This post from ash gives me a not-mafia vibe on ash. It does strike me as good positioning though if ash is the SK. I do not think ash is on the mafia team, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out if he was the SK. (for the record SK reads: ash, and shraeye, both people I think are fairly towny, and mail-mi who I think it is possible is playing scummy to survive into later stages of the game)

[Jorbles]

Ash, I see what you're saying about Yuma, but your Voltgloss case seems pretty weak to me.  You said it's over 50% chance that he's the SK, but your only reason is, "It’s tough, but I think we’ve seen the scummy one, as I believe he’s trying too hard to be the town one."  That's it.  I'm not at all swayed by the fact that he's won as SK before because that's a different game.. I don't particularly see how that's relevant here. 

"I think you'd see similarities if you re-read the other game" is pretty weak, too.  Did you read the other game and find similarities?  What were they?  Because on first read, it looks like you're just guessing that there would be similarities, and I don't think that's a good reason to vote someone.

The reason I don't think Volt is the SK is that I think the SK would try to not make themselves the NK from scum, which means not implying they are a PR and not leading town. Voltgloss has been leading town, which I think mafia might do, but not SK (I don't think Volt is mafia here, I've seen him do this in the past as town).

[Jorbles]

Theoretical question:  If we had suspicions of player X being the SK, and player Y being mafia, and they were about equal suspicions, it'd be better for us to lynch player X, correct?

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.
[/quote]

I agree with this.

[shraeye]

The problem is if you take #543 adn #545 together, you get the idea to lynch towny players, because they might be SK.  I don't think that's really the road to victory here.

I believe lynching the SK is more important than mafia, especially early on.

I agree with this.

This post from ash gives me a not-mafia vibe on ash. It does strike me as good positioning though if ash is the SK. I do not think ash is on the mafia team, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out if he was the SK. (for the record SK reads: ash, and shraeye, both people I think are fairly towny, and mail-mi who I think it is possible is playing scummy to survive into later stages of the game)

[Robz888]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

I assume you are so insistent because you don't believe UoS's claim? If he faked the other scum team will take him out eventually.

Sure, but then we won't even know, and it will really screw up claiming in later days. And the scum that kills him can masquerade as the PR that he was, which would be awful.

[mail-mi]

No hammers until UoS fullclaims.

Where has he been? Long enough for a prod? If so, i request a prod on UoS

[Voltgloss]

From the rules:

-No Way, No Lynch: Players cannot 'Vote: No Lynch'. If, by deadline, a lynch has not been decided on, whoever has the most votes on them will be lynched. In case of a tie, whichever player had a vote cast last on them is lynched.

No-lynch is not an option.