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[cayvie]

Can anybody tell me if Frisk and Eevee have a history of suspecting each other? Correctly or incorrectly, doesn't matter to me, just wondering if it is commonplace for those two?

Unrelated, but is Cayvie around?  Have I just missed her?

Frisk, still working on your reread.

i'm around. my sleep schedule has changed of late, so i'm on at different times than i used to be.
It's a fine and useful tool for town. Sometimes.
[/quote]

is this an intentional O allusion?

[cayvie]

It's a fine and useful tool for town. Sometimes.

is this an intentional O allusion?

[cayvie]

Frisk is one of those people I feel like are always slightly scummy. Of course, he always was scum for quite a bit there. I can see where Galzria is coming from in the "dragging the Lekkit lynch" case.

I'm curious where Cuzz is; he's posted twice this gameday, once to apologize for being behind. I'd like to read his promised analysis of yuma--there's a player I can never get a read on.

[Galzria]

/invisiYuma strikes again!

[yuma]

/invisiYuma strikes again!

hahahahaha!!! {evil cackle}

[Captain_Frisk]

/invisiYuma strikes again!

hahahahaha!!! {evil cackle}

Seriously guys, after you're done with me, I think you should look at him.

[yuma]

/invisiYuma strikes again!

hahahahaha!!! {evil cackle}

Seriously guys, after you're done with me, I think you should look at him.

I too agree with this conclusion

[yuma]

Frisk is one of those people I feel like are always slightly scummy. Of course, he always was scum for quite a bit there. I can see where Galzria is coming from in the "dragging the Lekkit lynch" case.

I'm curious where Cuzz is; he's posted twice this gameday, once to apologize for being behind. I'd like to read his promised analysis of yuma--there's a player I can never get a read on.

if there is anyone on the Lekkit wagon that I am most suspicious of it would be Cuzz... but I don't think he is the ideal lynch for today as I think there is a great chance of finding scum off the Lekkit wagon.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk is one of those people I feel like are always slightly scummy. Of course, he always was scum for quite a bit there. I can see where Galzria is coming from in the "dragging the Lekkit lynch" case.

I'm curious where Cuzz is; he's posted twice this gameday, once to apologize for being behind. I'd like to read his promised analysis of yuma--there's a player I can never get a read on.

if there is anyone on the Lekkit wagon that I am most suspicious of it would be Cuzz... but I don't think he is the ideal lynch for today as I think there is a great chance of finding scum off the Lekkit wagon.

I agree I don't like Cuzz either, but apparently he was mislynched in ZM6 for lurking as well... so I'm having reservations. 

My best bet on scum is: Yuma.

[yuma]

Frisk is one of those people I feel like are always slightly scummy. Of course, he always was scum for quite a bit there. I can see where Galzria is coming from in the "dragging the Lekkit lynch" case.

I'm curious where Cuzz is; he's posted twice this gameday, once to apologize for being behind. I'd like to read his promised analysis of yuma--there's a player I can never get a read on.

if there is anyone on the Lekkit wagon that I am most suspicious of it would be Cuzz... but I don't think he is the ideal lynch for today as I think there is a great chance of finding scum off the Lekkit wagon.

I agree I don't like Cuzz either, but apparently he was mislynched in ZM6 for lurking as well... so I'm having reservations. 

My best bet on scum is: Yuma.

my suspicion of cuzz isn't based on his lurking. it is based on his play throughout day 1.

[Cuzz]

Frisk is one of those people I feel like are always slightly scummy. Of course, he always was scum for quite a bit there. I can see where Galzria is coming from in the "dragging the Lekkit lynch" case.

I'm curious where Cuzz is; he's posted twice this gameday, once to apologize for being behind. I'd like to read his promised analysis of yuma--there's a player I can never get a read on.

if there is anyone on the Lekkit wagon that I am most suspicious of it would be Cuzz... but I don't think he is the ideal lynch for today as I think there is a great chance of finding scum off the Lekkit wagon.

I agree I don't like Cuzz either, but apparently he was mislynched in ZM6 for lurking as well... so I'm having reservations. 

My best bet on scum is: Yuma.

my suspicion of cuzz isn't based on his lurking. it is based on his play throughout day 1.

Ok, to start, can you elaborate on this?

[yuma]

oh sure pick me, one of the very few people who has posted anything of substance today or throughout much of Day 2 to elaborate... why not ask other people to participate as well?

but yes, I'll do so now...

[Axxle]

"Please look at me"
"Why are you looking at me?!?!?!?!?"

That looks very scummy.

[Cuzz]

Next, general things:

I think wagon analysis here has a slightly different feel to it from other games. Specifically, the fact that we had two wagons at L-1 simultaneously, and it really felt like the end of the day could have gone either way. So, if Eevee is town, and has a very good chance of being lynched (especially if theorel is town/telling the truth about the hammer), scum is probably just holding their breath and hoping the lynch falls in their favor, which it didn't. After the Eevee wagon built up, why would scum start bussing then? My point is that I think there's a chance that all scum were off wagon, and almost no chance that all scum were on wagon. I think Galz is almost certainly town in particular. If there is scum who voted for Lekkit, it would have to have been someone who was on Lekkit for a while from the beginning. Shraeye maybe? But I think looking off wagon is where to focus today, as many others have mentioned.

While I'm thinking of shraeye, I remember the weird time when Lekkit voted for shraeye for lurking right after replacing in, which just seemed super odd, since it was a weekend and he still needed time to reread. This probably means shraeye is more likely to be town, right?

(oh, btw I'm using town and scum here to mean not mafia/mafia. A serial killer would basically be acting as town during the day for all intents and purposes, and wagon analysis tells us nothing there)

So off wagon is theorel, Axxle, yuma, Frisk. I had a big townread on theorel D1. Is it really possible there's two scum in yuma/Frisk/Axxle? I can't imagine scum having put themselves in such a bad situation so early in the game, but maybe that attitude of mine is exactly the kind of WIFOM that could get them out of it. I think we should seriously consider the possibility. And I should probably rethink my townread on theorel, though he really does seem more like XII theorel than XI theorel.

So, I did have a scum read on yuma, and don't remember much from Frisk D1. I'll post my full thoughts on yuma later, but I did notice that yuma comes in D2 with:

A full reread on Frisk complete with an FoS. This definitely leaves the possibility of a Frisk/yuma scumteam open. It reminds me a bit of the case yuma built on me early in XIV. I don't think yuma would play exactly the same way as scum every time, but hard bussing against a scum partner who was not suspected a ton beforehand is well within yuma's scum wheelhouse.

Another random remark: Frisk's "tell me why I should switch to Lekkit" when the reasons should have been beyond obvious gives me a bad feeling.

[Cuzz]

oh sure pick me, one of the very few people who has posted anything of substance today or throughout much of Day 2 to elaborate... why not ask other people to participate as well?

but yes, I'll do so now...

I mentioned this earlier. I'm very narcissistic in mafia. I pay much more attention when people are talking about me, so your unsubstantiated FoS on me stuck out like a beacon.

[Captain_Frisk]

"Please look at me"
"Why are you looking at me?!?!?!?!?"

That looks very scummy.

Oy - don't you have a shit ton of homework to be doing?  Like defending your lurking?

[Eevee]

Scum didnt "put themselves on this situation" in that Lekkit being lynched certainly wasnt their preference.

[Axxle]

"Please look at me"
"Why are you looking at me?!?!?!?!?"

That looks very scummy.

Oy - don't you have a shit ton of homework to be doing?  Like defending your lurking?

No need to defend my lurking, I've been siteflaking.

I do have a ton of reading to do.

[Cuzz]

Scum didnt "put themselves on this situation" in that Lekkit being lynched certainly wasnt their preference.

The bad situation I'm referring to is the hypothetical one in which the rest of them were on you, and then Lekkit got lynched instead. That would be particularly unfortunate for them.

[Captain_Frisk]

Another random remark: Frisk's "tell me why I should switch to Lekkit" when the reasons should have been beyond obvious gives me a bad feeling.

When I reread - I still found eevee scummy.  I think you'll find this is unfortunately extremely consistent with my previous games.

[Eevee]

Lekkit getting lynched altogether was super unfortunate for them. They had plenty of incentive to try to not make that happen. Glad we had Galz.

[Eevee]

If this was elementary school, Frisk would be my bully. And I even like the dude!

[Galzria]

Cuzz's point is a good one, and one I meant to being up but forgot:

When Eevee went to L-1, Lekkit had 4 votes (L-3), which included Eevee's. If scum had wanted to avoid Lekkit's lynch (one would assume they did?), and they had the ability to do so (weren't already voting Eevee) - wouldn't it have made more sense for them to finish Eevee off, instead of waiting for Lekkit's wagon to grow (or more, contributing to it's growth)?

Raerae was vote 5 on Lekkit. She's confirmed town.
Jimmmm was vote 6. As scum, this makes no sense. He's likely confirmed town (not IC, but very, very townie).
I know that I'm town.
Eevee is almost certainly town.

If scum were on Lekkit's lynch, they actively choose to get him lynched instead of hammering Eevee, AND they committed to the bus very early on. That would be out of Cayvie/Shraeye/Cuzz. None of them were "bandwagon voters", and none of them "got on to buy cred before the lynch".

That all adds up to significantly reduce the odds on them being Mafia. Doesn't erase it entirely, but it's much less likely. Eevee was L-1 for over 15 minutes before Lekkit hit L-1. There was ample opportunity to switch.

Granted, they might've thought "there's no way Lekkit is getting lynched now over Eevee, so I'm gonna sit back" - until it was too late to switch... But odds are strong that there is indeed one off the wagon, and decent that there are two.

[yuma]

47 posts:

Cuzz starts out the game voting for me: his logic was based off my vote/quick unvote of Robz. I have said before that this is a weak case. Not even vote worthy. It is exactly the type of case that scum tries to start early in games. I did in MXIV, so did Cuzz (mine was a bussing one however), ash did it in MV--where I rightly called him out for it.

Cuzz then shifts his vote to Robz (now confirmed town Doc) and sheeps Frisk's vote and logic of Robz preferring to play scum. Again, really weak case. In fact, not even a case at all.

And then he is back to me. This time for a "vibe, without any real facts or evidence. Again, really really weak.

He then has a post about Lekkit, Jimmm, Robz and I; doesn't present anything new that I hadn't heard or seen before.

moves to a Lekkit vote for his vote on sub-in shraeye. at this point Lekkit had 2 votes on him with raerae and cayvie. Looks like a potential bus vote because it was for something pretty weird, but easily taken off once Lekkit unvotes shraeye.

continues to keep his vote on Lekkit; doesn't like him lurking, his 10 straight one word posts, his lack of having reads

at the end of day 1, "kinda wants to switch to Eevee" (scum getting cold feet about bussing?)

and then 3 posts day 2.


So like I said, I don't think Cuzz is the best option today because we have off-Lekkit wagon, non-bussing scum to find. But if we didn't have them and only potential bussers were around, I would pick Cuzz. I think his cases have been weak--on me especially--I think out of all the other people voting on the Lekkit wagon, Cuzz appears to have a pretty likely bus vote (on an issue that would likely go away and then the cold feet)... But I haven't necessarily looked at all the other lekkit voters, but Cuzz's stood out to me.

[cayvie]

(oh, btw I'm using town and scum here to mean not mafia/mafia. A serial killer would basically be acting as town during the day for all intents and purposes, and wagon analysis tells us nothing there)

just wanted to point out that this isn't exactly true, in my experience. i've been an SK twice, and there's definitely a pressure to lynch anyone who isn't you. i would suspect that a serial killer is more likely than average to be on whatever lynch happens. not super relevant to the discussion at hand, i know.