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[Eevee]

Question before I finish my post on Frisk...are D1 lynches usually wrong?  All you people seem to LOVE math so give up the stats, folks.

They used to always hit town. Lately we've stopped derping and have actually done a LOT better. yuma probably knows the exact %, but i think that's an important distinction.

[Eevee]

Question before I finish my post on Frisk...are D1 lynches usually wrong?  All you people seem to LOVE math so give up the stats, folks.

Yes.  They are usually wrong because scum haven't done anything wrong yet, and there are usually only abou 20-30 pct of town is scum.

Mafiascum reported that day 1 correct lynches were slightly lower than expected vs. lynching randomly.

which makes sense because of fake claims and scum generally not wanting to kill their team mates.

[raerae]

Fair warning:  This is a beer and Christmas cookies post so I can’t be held responsible for any absurdities found herein.

My thoughts on Frisk:  As I said before he seems a little scummy and a little town to me.  He legitimately seemed to believe Eevee was scum based, primarily, on his meta change from previous games.  According to all you vets Lekkit was lurking as all good Lekkits are known to do.  Eevee, on the other hand, wasn't playing normal Eevee.  At least according to Frisk.  So, if we take Frisk at his word, he really thought Eevee was the more logical lynch and didn’t want to be seen hammering town.  Also, Frisk was hitting Eevee pretty early in the game and didn’t ever exactly back off except when he was pushing for Robz.  I suppose that could be scummy.  There were two strong wagons already, one for sure for sure on scum, so maybe he was trying to get the Robz wagon restarted?  I don’t know, kind of seems like an uphill battle and he would have been better spent starting something new entirely or more subtly pushing for Eevee.  I’m operating under the assumption that Eevee is town here.  I suppose a Lekkit/Eevee/Frisk scumteam is possible but strange and awkward and uncomfortable and I don’t like it. 

Moral of the story is basically that I can see where Frisk could be seen as scummy but I read it as hesitation to lynch somebody he didn’t see as scum.  In addition to all that jazz, he has provided analysis of other players when he said he would on who he said he would.  I assume you wouldn’t object to read suggestions, correct Frisk?

Basically, I don’t believe he’s above suspicion but I don’t feel like he’s an AWESOME choice for a lynch today either.  I realize this isn’t a super strong case but at least you know you’re getting my real live thoughts.

[raerae]

Well, I think I'm one of the towniest around here today based on yesterdays events, right up there with Galzria and shraeye. So, the hypothetical scum team with me in it would be more concerned of it's members that were not on the Lekkit wagon.

Can someone explain why shraeye gets this obvtown vibe from everyone?  You and Galz I get.

I  would LOVE to have a scumread on shraeye.  Usually I only play any game with him in an attempt to crush his soul.  This time around, however, I feel we are playing for the same team  . 

He did a super-full comment-on-everything-ever reread BEFORE voting as opposed to just saying, "Yeah, sure, that argument sounds reasonable."  Yes, that's exactly what you should do when subbing into a game but there are people who have been playing since the beginning of this game who haven't paid that much attention.  Then he strongly advocated for the Lekkit lynch.  Why would scum pop in that loud for their own kind when there was a MORE viable lynch floating around?  It just doesn’t make sense. 

I wish he was scummy, guys.  I really really do.  But I don’t see how his play so far has been scum-friendly.  Please, somebody more knowledgeable than I explain how he could be bad news?

[raerae]

I'm setting another soft-deadline for Thursday, December 20th, 8pm forum time.  Get in here and figure stuff out.  That means everybody.  Any questions/objections?

[Galzria]

I'm setting another soft-deadline for Thursday, December 20th, 8pm forum time.  Get in here and figure stuff out.  That means everybody.  Any questions/objections?

Nope, none. I'm good with that.

[shraeye]

Thoughts.

Next, general things:

I think wagon analysis here has a slightly different feel to it from other games. Specifically, the fact that we had two wagons at L-1 simultaneously, and it really felt like the end of the day could have gone either way. So, if Eevee is town, and has a very good chance of being lynched (especially if theorel is town/telling the truth about the hammer), scum is probably just holding their breath and hoping the lynch falls in their favor, which it didn't. After the Eevee wagon built up, why would scum start bussing then? My point is that I think there's a chance that all scum were off wagon, and almost no chance that all scum were on wagon. I think Galz is almost certainly town in particular. If there is scum who voted for Lekkit, it would have to have been someone who was on Lekkit for a while from the beginning. Shraeye maybe? But I think looking off wagon is where to focus today, as many others have mentioned.

While I'm thinking of shraeye, I remember the weird time when Lekkit voted for shraeye for lurking right after replacing in, which just seemed super odd, since it was a weekend and he still needed time to reread. This probably means shraeye is more likely to be town, right?

First, you simultaneously conclude that I'm more likely to be town, and say that I'm the most suspicious person on the Lekkit lynch.  Try being more consistent.
vote: Cuzz

Second, you bring up a good point, but reach entirely the opposite conclusion as I have.

I think wagon analysis here has a slightly different feel to it from other games. Specifically, the fact that we had two wagons at L-1 simultaneously, and it really felt like the end of the day could have gone either way. So, if Eevee is town, and has a very good chance of being lynched (especially if theorel is town/telling the truth about the hammer), scum is probably just holding their breath and hoping the lynch falls in their favor, which it didn't.

When I am scum, and it looks like a favorable lynch for my team is going down (assuming Eevee is town, and right now, I'm ok with that) I stay away.  I don't want to be on that lynch, especially if it looks like town will tip it over the edge.  So I have to calculate where my vote will be.  Frankly, keeping my vote on a scumbuddy that probably won't get lynched is a great idea.

But then, surprising those smug scum, the Lekkit lynch takes off and suddenly he's at L-1.  Now they can't switch off Lekkit last minute in case he actually is lynched (they'll be suspected for sure), and they definitely can't jump off Lekkit and onto Eevee (it'll look terrible if eevee flips town).  So we've essentially got scum stuck on the wagon of their partner.

I reached this conclusion as follows. I was doing my mafia-homework dutifully, rereading Frisk/yuma/theorel/axxle.  And I find all of them towny.  Probably in this order Axxle (towniest)>Yuma>Frisk>theorel.  But all of them I find much more towny than some of the people on the Lekkit lynch.  Cuzz, cayvie, Jimmmmm.  Jimmm was a late vote to lekkit, and actually gains towny points that way.  But when I think about where I would have been as scum, I realize that I would actually be more likely to have been on the Lekkit wagon early.  As were Cuzz/cayvie.

So vote on Cuzz this post looks jokey because it's right next to a pithy reason.  But I'm serious about it.  Doubly serious.

Vote: Cuzz

[shraeye]

Granted, they might've thought "there's no way Lekkit is getting lynched now over Eevee, so I'm gonna sit back" - until it was too late to switch... But odds are strong that there is indeed one off the wagon, and decent that there are two.

Here's what I think scum were thinking regarding the Eevee-lynch.  But I'm no longer sold that there are for sure mafia off the wagon.

[shraeye]

Vote Count 2.6

No change.  Where is everyone?

Captain_Frisk (4): Galzria, yuma, theorel, Axxle {L-2}
yuma (1): Eevee

Not Voting (6): shraeye, Captain_Frisk, cayvie, Cuzz, Jimmmmm, raerae

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends on Wednesday, December 26, at 4:30 p.m. forum time.

You have less than 9 days left in the bank.

So here's what makes me really wary about lynching off wagon.  All the people who were off wagon want to vote for Frisk (well except Frisk).  This feels like the situation in blitz games where people settle on a 'nice' lynch that everybody finds agreeable when deadline comes around.  But 'everybody' includes mafia, and if they think it's an agreeable lynch, then it's probably a mislynch.  I'm pretty sure Frisk is not going to be the lynch that helps us move forward the best.

[raerae]

Granted, they might've thought "there's no way Lekkit is getting lynched now over Eevee, so I'm gonna sit back" - until it was too late to switch... But odds are strong that there is indeed one off the wagon, and decent that there are two.

Here's what I think scum were thinking regarding the Eevee-lynch.  But I'm no longer sold that there are for sure mafia off the wagon.

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait...you were one of the first on the Lekkit wagon, weren't you?

[Axxle]

Only person I really see caring about Robz dying is Eevee, which might mean he's the SK and Robz prevented the mafia kill since I don't see Eevee being Lekkit's teammate.

Why is this?

He only cast suspicion on you.  Either you wanted him quiet or someone is purposefully throwing suspiscion your way.  Usually the former is the case.

mmmm vote: axxle

robz also cast suspicion on you, Axxle.

Found the section you meant.  Forgot about that exchange.  I wouldn't have killed him for a small spat like that, and he hardly accused me of much just a "I think so" with no vote and no mention of it later.  inb4 wifom.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 2.7

Captain_Frisk (4): Galzria, yuma, theorel, Axxle {L-2}
yuma (1): Eevee
Axxle (1): Cayvie
Cuzz (1): shraeye

Not Voting (4): Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, Jimmmmm, raerae

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends on Wednesday, December 26, at 4:30 p.m. forum time.

You have less than 9 days left in the bank.

[Cuzz]

47 posts:

Cuzz starts out the game voting for me: his logic was based off my vote/quick unvote of Robz. I have said before that this is a weak case. Not even vote worthy. It is exactly the type of case that scum tries to start early in games. I did in MXIV, so did Cuzz (mine was a bussing one however), ash did it in MV--where I rightly called him out for it.

Cuzz then shifts his vote to Robz (now confirmed town Doc) and sheeps Frisk's vote and logic of Robz preferring to play scum. Again, really weak case. In fact, not even a case at all.

And then he is back to me. This time for a "vibe, without any real facts or evidence. Again, really really weak.

He then has a post about Lekkit, Jimmm, Robz and I; doesn't present anything new that I hadn't heard or seen before.

moves to a Lekkit vote for his vote on sub-in shraeye. at this point Lekkit had 2 votes on him with raerae and cayvie. Looks like a potential bus vote because it was for something pretty weird, but easily taken off once Lekkit unvotes shraeye.

continues to keep his vote on Lekkit; doesn't like him lurking, his 10 straight one word posts, his lack of having reads

at the end of day 1, "kinda wants to switch to Eevee" (scum getting cold feet about bussing?)

and then 3 posts day 2.


So like I said, I don't think Cuzz is the best option today because we have off-Lekkit wagon, non-bussing scum to find. But if we didn't have them and only potential bussers were around, I would pick Cuzz. I think his cases have been weak--on me especially--I think out of all the other people voting on the Lekkit wagon, Cuzz appears to have a pretty likely bus vote (on an issue that would likely go away and then the cold feet)... But I haven't necessarily looked at all the other lekkit voters, but Cuzz's stood out to me.

I'll respond to yuma and then to shraeye. It seems your major issue is that I had weak cases early on D1, which applies to almost everyone early D1 in every game. I never claimed the cases I made were airtight, they were just things I was thinking out loud, and yes occasionally paired with a vote, but again it was early in the game. I freely admitted my cases were weak, and happily switched my vote to Lekkit when I decided he was a much better lynch.

And about my vote on Lekkit, there's wine here but if you reread my interaction with him late in the day, it was genuine scumhunting on my part (and successful!)

[Cuzz]

Thoughts.

Next, general things:

I think wagon analysis here has a slightly different feel to it from other games. Specifically, the fact that we had two wagons at L-1 simultaneously, and it really felt like the end of the day could have gone either way. So, if Eevee is town, and has a very good chance of being lynched (especially if theorel is town/telling the truth about the hammer), scum is probably just holding their breath and hoping the lynch falls in their favor, which it didn't. After the Eevee wagon built up, why would scum start bussing then? My point is that I think there's a chance that all scum were off wagon, and almost no chance that all scum were on wagon. I think Galz is almost certainly town in particular. If there is scum who voted for Lekkit, it would have to have been someone who was on Lekkit for a while from the beginning. Shraeye maybe? But I think looking off wagon is where to focus today, as many others have mentioned.

While I'm thinking of shraeye, I remember the weird time when Lekkit voted for shraeye for lurking right after replacing in, which just seemed super odd, since it was a weekend and he still needed time to reread. This probably means shraeye is more likely to be town, right?

First, you simultaneously conclude that I'm more likely to be town, and say that I'm the most suspicious person on the Lekkit lynch.  Try being more consistent.
vote: Cuzz

Second, you bring up a good point, but reach entirely the opposite conclusion as I have.

I think wagon analysis here has a slightly different feel to it from other games. Specifically, the fact that we had two wagons at L-1 simultaneously, and it really felt like the end of the day could have gone either way. So, if Eevee is town, and has a very good chance of being lynched (especially if theorel is town/telling the truth about the hammer), scum is probably just holding their breath and hoping the lynch falls in their favor, which it didn't.

When I am scum, and it looks like a favorable lynch for my team is going down (assuming Eevee is town, and right now, I'm ok with that) I stay away.  I don't want to be on that lynch, especially if it looks like town will tip it over the edge.  So I have to calculate where my vote will be.  Frankly, keeping my vote on a scumbuddy that probably won't get lynched is a great idea.

But then, surprising those smug scum, the Lekkit lynch takes off and suddenly he's at L-1.  Now they can't switch off Lekkit last minute in case he actually is lynched (they'll be suspected for sure), and they definitely can't jump off Lekkit and onto Eevee (it'll look terrible if eevee flips town).  So we've essentially got scum stuck on the wagon of their partner.

I reached this conclusion as follows. I was doing my mafia-homework dutifully, rereading Frisk/yuma/theorel/axxle.  And I find all of them towny.  Probably in this order Axxle (towniest)>Yuma>Frisk>theorel.  But all of them I find much more towny than some of the people on the Lekkit lynch.  Cuzz, cayvie, Jimmmmm.  Jimmm was a late vote to lekkit, and actually gains towny points that way.  But when I think about where I would have been as scum, I realize that I would actually be more likely to have been on the Lekkit wagon early.  As were Cuzz/cayvie.

So vote on Cuzz this post looks jokey because it's right next to a pithy reason.  But I'm serious about it.  Doubly serious.

Vote: Cuzz

Am I missing something, or are you just voting for me here for disagreeing with you?

As for the first point, you completely misinterpreted what I was saying, which I would have thought was pretty clear. I think it's possible there was no bussing, so I'm not looking on the Lekkit wagon for scum right now. I then remarked that were there to be bussing, it's possible that it was from you. But notice my lack of conviction and questioning attitude. I was just thinking out loud and brainstorming in my first post you quoted. There's nothing inconsistent at all about what I said, because I didn't actually "conclude" anything. You seem really touchy about what barely qualifies as an FoS on you.

Regarding the second point, again it just seems like you're disagreeing with me, and somehow that leads you to a vote. You have a different theory about what happened yesterday and that's fine. Maybe you're right and I'm wrong. And that's fine. Discussion and debate is good.

I do find it very weird that you seem to be clearing the entire Eevee wagon. Do you really think we should definitely be lynching on wagon today?

Also your last line makes little sense. Can you give me the tldr of why you're actually voting for me? It seems like you're half joking but then you say you're not and I'm just confused.

[Cuzz]

Also, shraeye, it'd be great if you gave reasons for your sudden townread on the whole crowd that many of us agree should be the focus of attention today (the Eevee wagon).

In terms of what I put weight on when deciding whom to lynch today:

those avoiding a scum wagon >>> shraeye's completely unsubstantiated townread

[shraeye]

As for the first point, you completely misinterpreted what I was saying, which I would have thought was pretty clear. I think it's possible there was no bussing, so I'm not looking on the Lekkit wagon for scum right now. I then remarked that were there to be bussing, it's possible that it was from you. But notice my lack of conviction and questioning attitude. I was just thinking out loud and brainstorming in my first post you quoted. There's nothing inconsistent at all about what I said, because I didn't actually "conclude" anything. You seem really touchy about what barely qualifies as an FoS on you.

Cuzz, that is literally the definition of hedging.  "I don't have a lot of conviction in this, and please everybody note my questioning attitude, but I think you should suspect shraeye as the best candidate for bussing on the Lekkit wagon...oh also, I think he's town."

Also here are the reasons for my 'out of the blue' townreads, apparently you missed them.

Still, looking through yuma's business this is the only thing that stands out to me.  There are other things that really make me feel that yuma is town.  But for thoroughness I'd love to know how many people think the funny business is really scummy, and how many think it's just a bit odd.

Didn't forget, just a bit overwhelmed.  I'll try to get into this again.

This sounds honest to me.  I don't think Axxle is a good lynch today, but I encourage him to come back and post whatever's on his mind.  I'm not liking jumping to an Axxle lynch.

So here's what makes me really wary about lynching off wagon.  All the people who were off wagon want to vote for Frisk (well except Frisk).  This feels like the situation in blitz games where people settle on a 'nice' lynch that everybody finds agreeable when deadline comes around.  But 'everybody' includes mafia, and if they think it's an agreeable lynch, then it's probably a mislynch.  I'm pretty sure Frisk is not going to be the lynch that helps us move forward the best.

Theorel is the smallest townread of the Eevee wagoners, but I think things will be much better when we lynch Cuzz.  I love how Cuzz reacts strongly to me voting for him by saying that I'm the one who's getting touchy.  My vote on Cuzz is because of the simultaneous town/scum reads he tried to cast on me.  It didn't matter that Cuzz gave these on shraeye, I'd vote over similar attitudes on anyone.

[Galzria]

Shraeye, I am far, far more likely to have strong convictions on my reads as scum than as town. As town, it's a never ceasing game of second guessing and being unsure. As scum that's not the case, so to portray it as such is unnatural.

Your argument is that he's hedging, thus likely scum. I disagree. If you were arguing that his waffling seems faked, forced or contrived, then maybe I would give more consideration to your case.

Unless you're calling the scumteam Cayvie/Cuzz/Lekkit right now, then there is scum off the lynch wagon, and that's going to be the best place to start looking.

[shraeye]

Shraeye, I am far, far more likely to have strong convictions on my reads as scum than as town. As town, it's a never ceasing game of second guessing and being unsure. As scum that's not the case, so to portray it as such is unnatural.

Your argument is that he's hedging, thus likely scum. I disagree. If you were arguing that his waffling seems faked, forced or contrived, then maybe I would give more consideration to your case.

Unless you're calling the scumteam Cayvie/Cuzz/Lekkit right now, then there is scum off the lynch wagon, and that's going to be the best place to start looking.

That's exactly where I started looking, Galz.  I read each one of them, and got town vibes from them all.  The only lynch there that I would be ok with is theorel, and I'm not sold on it.  I'm not calling the scum team Lekkit/Cuzz/cayvie, I'm calling Lekkit/Cuzz/somebody.  I'm not sure who the third is yet.

I'm ok with people changing their reads.  But Cuzz did it from one paragraph to the next within the same post.  That's what I'm talking about, and that's not reasonable.  He's trying to cast suspicion but using a tone of voice that is 'lacking conviction and questioning' to quote Cuzz himself, and then he followed it up by saying that he thinks his suspect is likely town.

[theorel]

unvote
Yeah, I've been thinking about it a bit lately, and I agree with shraeye.  I was thinking along these lines: we've been lynching scum more frequently day1 as of late, but maybe that's because scum has been bussing more frequently as of late?  I feel like Insomniac made a comment somewhere after Robz' bussing of Frisk day1 in the blitz game where Robz was assumed to be the towniest member of the suspects that day1 bussing just gives SO much town-cred that he'd basically be doing it every game where he rolls scum.  I started thinking about it because of Galzria's recent post here, this just struck me as wrong reasoning, not necessarily false (because I had similar thoughts myself), but I think it disregards this current overarching meta of scum bussing.  The fact is, that scum knew how Eevee would flip, and they knew how Lekkit would flip, they didn't want to be voting Eevee (assuming he was town).

I think Cuzz has basically played day2 here exactly like Grujah did day1 in MXI.  He's never posting, never posting, someone calls him out and he has to defend himself.  He's claimed narcissism, but I don't remember him playing MXII like that.

I'm still not opposed to a Frisk or Axxle lynch (still with a preference for Axxle because I think his behavior while Lekkit was getting lynched is scummier).  I'm really conflicted, because I can't really decide if bussing is more likely than not.  I'll pose the question to everyone else: do you feel like scum has been bussing day1 more frequently of late (since the blitz game with Robz)?  Until then, I'm going to join shraeye in voting for IMO the most likely busser Vote: Cuzz.

[cayvie]

I'm still not opposed to a Frisk or Axxle lynch (still with a preference for Axxle because I think his behavior while Lekkit was getting lynched is scummier).  I'm really conflicted, because I can't really decide if bussing is more likely than not.  I'll pose the question to everyone else: do you feel like scum has been bussing day1 more frequently of late (since the blitz game with Robz)?  Until then, I'm going to join shraeye in voting for IMO the most likely busser Vote: Cuzz.

I'm unhelpful here, I really don't have a feel for whether scum has been bussing day1 more frequently since then. This may, in fact, be the only completed day 1 I've played since then. Well, I bussed hardcore in Domafia.

I'm reserving judgment on Cuzz until I see his case on yuma.

[yuma]

Like I said before, Cuzz would be my preferred lynch if off-Lekkit players didn't exist. But they do... Do people really think that town has a better opportunity to find scum on the Lekkit wagon?

[cayvie]

Like I said before, Cuzz would be my preferred lynch if off-Lekkit players didn't exist. But they do... Do people really think that town has a better opportunity to find scum on the Lekkit wagon?

If the choice was between "lynch a randomly chosen off-wagon player" and "lynch a randomly chosen on-wagon player", I'd choose the former.

[Axxle]

The fact that the night kill was off wagon indicates to me that busing is slightly more likely, if the NK was by mafia.

[yuma]

I feel like bussing in general has increased, in recent games as scum I have voted for teammates Day 1... but didn't want the lynch to go through.

So I guess there are a few types of bussing...

Voting for your scum mate early to gain town cred or gain each other town cred if one of you dies later, but not pushing the lynch to completion.

Voting for you scum mate late because the wagon is obviously going somewhere and it isn't about to stop, so might as well join on and try to gain some cred.

Voting for your scum mate whenever, and pushing hard for it like you would a normal case as town.

The last option is the most risky for scum Day 1 because it means you are going to be at a severe disadvantage. I dont' think it is the smartest play and that I why I doubt town did it here. Possible, but I doubt it.

[shraeye]

Like I said before, Cuzz would be my preferred lynch if off-Lekkit players didn't exist. But they do... Do people really think that town has a better opportunity to find scum on the Lekkit wagon?

If the choice was between "lynch a randomly chosen off-wagon player" and "lynch a randomly chosen on-wagon player", I'd choose the former.

I agree with this sentiment if it comes to literally picking people randomly.  But as long as I have reads to listen to, I'm going to do use them to direct my vote.  Looking for scum off-wagon seemed the best choice, so I started today off by doing that.  I didn't find anyone I was comfortable voting for.