It feels like the most important thing to figure out is what went down on D1. We've had wagons on all of {Jimmmmm, joth, math}. These are a very good starting point.
Jimmmmm (4): jotheonah, faust, mathdude, EFHW
MiX had been there early on, helping to get the wagon started, but didn't stay long.
Unfortunately this isn't super insightful. It is notable that no confirmed scum is on the wagon, but if Jimmmm is town then the third scum is there. So it's either an all-town wagon on scum or a 4-people wagon on town with one scum.
mathdude (5): 2.71828....., iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Jimmmmm, EFHW
iguana had been pushing for this pretty hard. This is my main issue with the mathdude case. If mathdude is scum then his partner was content to sacrifice him D1. iguana had a perfect opportunity to switch to joth "to get an exile" but didn't.
jotheonah (4): faust, MiX, WestCoastDidds, Swowl,
And there's the other conf!scum on here. Swowl hopped on just over half an hour before the deadline, pretty late but not so late that he could count on the exile not going through. so if joth was scum then that's a problematic alternate wagon to push.
With this, you end up at scum likelihoods of
Jimmmmm > mathdude > joth