You lynched someone! Good job, humans! Treats all around! Right?
Vote Count 4.Final
Galzria (2): DatSwan, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (6): O, Teproc, Galzria, Qvist, Eevee, 2.71828
DatSwan (2): faust, RoadRuner7671
Not Voting (0):
With 10 alive it took 6 to lynch.
SpaceAnemone has been crossed off Jacob's list. They were Penelope Widmore, the Others-aligned Watcher.
Night 4 begins now and lasts for 48 hours. Thread locked.
At work for 9 hours today and tomorrow both, with a social outting tomorrow after work. I won't have time to continue my reareads until Monday at the earliest.
But I can do single post type stuff while here - so let's look at the end of day yesterday:
How viable were each of the lynch's, and what does each of them suggest?
Possible lynches:
Faust: (Preferred Lynch): e, DatSwan (Would Lynch): Space, Galzria --- I think this was the least likely lynch to occur. I don't think O or Teproc would've switched over unless it meant no lynch instead - and even then I'm not certain they would have (especially following the lack of hammers on Space, if Space was on Faust - I dunno). As for Eevee and Qvist, I don't think either would've switched either, but I could be wrong. Regardless, I don't believe there was any chance of this happening.
Galzria: (Preferred Lynch): Datswan, Space (Would Lynch): Teproc, O, Eevee --- This is slightly more viable, and Space knew it. Teproc and O had been scum reading me for days, and until very recently had been pushing me as the primary lynch for the day. While e really did not want to lynch me, it's completely reasonable that he would've hammered if I were the only option for a lynch. Unfortunately, had my lynch occured, A) The game would likely be over (unless e RB'd a NK), but B) The switch of players involved would not have told us much about the gamestate (since Tep/O are all but guaranteed to be town). That is, the only people really responsible for getting scum off the lynch hook would've been the two most likely town players.
Datswan: (Preferred Lynch): e, faust, RR (Would Lynch): Galzria, Space - Now this one is interesting. Space didn't really throw Swan out there as a possible "not Space" lynch until the very end - in fact only in a single post just before the lynch itself did Space even bring up Swan as a possible alternate lynch. Noticeably, prior to the lynch, e was on Swan and Space was NOT - that would've put Swan at 4 vs Space at 5. Had even one of me or Eevee or Qvist jumped ship on Space and gone over to Swan at that point Tep/O would've been faced with a switch or no-lynch situation. What was the worst thing that could happen here for Space? If Datswan is town and we successfully make the switch, Space wins. If Swan is town and we end at No-Lynch, scum is in a much better place than they are now - and I look scummy as hell. And if Space ends up getting lynched anyway, scum is in the same spot as they are now, and I still look scummy as hell for trying to derail Space's lynch.
The only thing Space has to lose here is if Swan is scum, right? Moreover, only if Swan is more important scum than Space - because why wouldn't Space be doing everything possible to avoid their own lynch here?
Looked at another way:
Let's assume for a moment (my perspective here) Swan is town: He's set on me, another townie, won't move. Space is scum, and two of RR/Faust/Eevee are scum with him. Either both scum buddies are already on Swan, or one (Eevee) is currently on him and could switch to Swan. e has already said he strongly prefers Swan. If Space goes there and Eevee is his partner, that's an easy switch - puts Swan at 5 to Space's 4 - it would force somebody to move (and lose), or no-lynch. This right here suggests that Space/Iguana/Eevee/{RR/Faust} are almost 100% NOT the scum team. Now, what if Space's partners are {RR/Faust}? Space switches to Swan, putting Swan at 4 (with e) to Space's 5. This is possible, and would've required either Eevee or I to switch over to Swan (something I was probably more inclined to do than Eevee) in order to get the same 5:5 split. While this may not be super likely, it was probably moreso than Space continuing to try and push my lynch - and I don't see why Space wouldn't have at the very least have explored this possability.
The interesting side effect of all of this is that Datswan should be considering Eevee or myself to be scum extremely unlikely at this point - because if either of us were scum with Space then between us and Space, and e, we could've forced a 5:5 split (Tep/O/Qvist/X/Swan on Space vs Faust/RR/Space/e/X on Swan) - and it would've come down to who gave first: Teproc or e (or neither and we go no-lynch, also a win for scum here).
What this all boils down to then, is that from an end of day standpoint:
Datswan is super scummy - not just for not voting Space, but also for Space's refusal to pursue him as a viable alternative lynch when faust/RR were parked there, and e made it extremely clear that Swan was his preferred lynch choice.
On the flip side, if Swan IS Town, I find it -extremely- unlikely that Eevee is scum.
I think I'll move Swan up and reread him following my conclusion of faust.
You lynched someone! Good job, humans! Treats all around! Right?
Vote Count 4.Final
Galzria (2): DatSwan, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (6): O, Teproc, Galzria, Qvist, Eevee, 2.71828
DatSwan (2): faust, RoadRuner7671
Not Voting (0):
With 10 alive it took 6 to lynch.
SpaceAnemone has been crossed off Jacob's list. They were Penelope Widmore, the Others-aligned Watcher.
Night 4 begins now and lasts for 48 hours. Thread locked.
At work for 9 hours today and tomorrow both, with a social outting tomorrow after work. I won't have time to continue my reareads until Monday at the earliest.
But I can do single post type stuff while here - so let's look at the end of day yesterday:
How viable were each of the lynch's, and what does each of them suggest?
Possible lynches:
Faust: (Preferred Lynch): e, DatSwan (Would Lynch): Space, Galzria --- I think this was the least likely lynch to occur. I don't think O or Teproc would've switched over unless it meant no lynch instead - and even then I'm not certain they would have (especially following the lack of hammers on Space, if Space was on Faust - I dunno). As for Eevee and Qvist, I don't think either would've switched either, but I could be wrong. Regardless, I don't believe there was any chance of this happening.
Galzria: (Preferred Lynch): Datswan, Space (Would Lynch): Teproc, O, Eevee --- This is slightly more viable, and Space knew it. Teproc and O had been scum reading me for days, and until very recently had been pushing me as the primary lynch for the day. While e really did not want to lynch me, it's completely reasonable that he would've hammered if I were the only option for a lynch. Unfortunately, had my lynch occured, A) The game would likely be over (unless e RB'd a NK), but B) The switch of players involved would not have told us much about the gamestate (since Tep/O are all but guaranteed to be town). That is, the only people really responsible for getting scum off the lynch hook would've been the two most likely town players.
Datswan: (Preferred Lynch): e, faust, RR (Would Lynch): Galzria, Space - Now this one is interesting. Space didn't really throw Swan out there as a possible "not Space" lynch until the very end - in fact only in a single post just before the lynch itself did Space even bring up Swan as a possible alternate lynch. Noticeably, prior to the lynch, e was on Swan and Space was NOT - that would've put Swan at 4 vs Space at 5. Had even one of me or Eevee or Qvist jumped ship on Space and gone over to Swan at that point Tep/O would've been faced with a switch or no-lynch situation. What was the worst thing that could happen here for Space? If Datswan is town and we successfully make the switch, Space wins. If Swan is town and we end at No-Lynch, scum is in a much better place than they are now - and I look scummy as hell. And if Space ends up getting lynched anyway, scum is in the same spot as they are now, and I still look scummy as hell for trying to derail Space's lynch.
The only thing Space has to lose here is if Swan is scum, right? Moreover, only if Swan is more important scum than Space - because why wouldn't Space be doing everything possible to avoid their own lynch here?
Looked at another way:
Let's assume for a moment (my perspective here) Swan is town: He's set on me, another townie, won't move. Space is scum, and two of RR/Faust/Eevee are scum with him. Either both scum buddies are already on Swan, or one (Eevee) is currently on him and could switch to Swan. e has already said he strongly prefers Swan. If Space goes there and Eevee is his partner, that's an easy switch - puts Swan at 5 to Space's 4 - it would force somebody to move (and lose), or no-lynch. This right here suggests that Space/Iguana/Eevee/{RR/Faust} are almost 100% NOT the scum team. Now, what if Space's partners are {RR/Faust}? Space switches to Swan, putting Swan at 4 (with e) to Space's 5. This is possible, and would've required either Eevee or I to switch over to Swan (something I was probably more inclined to do than Eevee) in order to get the same 5:5 split. While this may not be super likely, it was probably moreso than Space continuing to try and push my lynch - and I don't see why Space wouldn't have at the very least have explored this possability.
The interesting side effect of all of this is that Datswan should be considering Eevee or myself to be scum extremely unlikely at this point - because if either of us were scum with Space then between us and Space, and e, we could've forced a 5:5 split (Tep/O/Qvist/X/Swan on Space vs Faust/RR/Space/e/X on Swan) - and it would've come down to who gave first: Teproc or e (or neither and we go no-lynch, also a win for scum here).
What this all boils down to then, is that from an end of day standpoint:
Datswan is super scummy - not just for not voting Space, but also for Space's refusal to pursue him as a viable alternative lynch when faust/RR were parked there, and e made it extremely clear that Swan was his preferred lynch choice.
On the flip side, if Swan IS Town, I find it -extremely- unlikely that Eevee is scum.
I think I'll move Swan up and reread him following my conclusion of faust.
Other than the parts that call me skum, I actually think this is relevant information.
I AGREE that;
1) Me not hammering Space looks bad. I don't agree it is skummy. I had a read, the read is that Space was Town. If I was right and I hammered then we lose. E! expressed that he would do it if needed. If he didn't do it, then tomorrow we lynch Skum!E! (weird to type out), and after the no lynch he forced we are just back in the same spot. If he does do it, then it was his call and we take it from there, but given the first option I did not want to act quickly.
2) O and Teproc are Masons. Or at least I am not questioning it at this point.
3) That Space's actions make me look super skummy. However, Space was there at the end. If I were skum (or "important skum" as you put it) why would an experienced player such as Space take this line?
I DO NOT agree with;
1) Your logic behind the Space switch to me because if he does it there is no downside for a Skum Team. At the same point in time that E! switched to me putting 3 on me, Galz has 2 (me and Space) on him. If 2/3 (in your logic here) of Eevee, Faust, and RR are skum for this scenario, they could of taken either 2 off of me onto you, or 1 off of me and one off of Space onto you and put you at 4. This would have the situation read Galz (4), Space (4 or 5), Swan (1 or 2). If you are Town!Galz and I am Skum!Swan (knowing of course now that it was Skum!Space), wouldn't this clearly an equal or superior play for Skum based on your logic set forward? It creates a great no lynch scenario if Eevee is skum (i.e. 4 on Space instead of 5), if you are Town it puts an potentially equal amount of votes on you to Space, and it would also pull 1-2 votes off of Skum!Swan. Just saying, there are multiple theories. Just because that is the one you chose to focus on doesn't make it the most likely.
2) The ideal that Town!Swan = Town!Eevee because it dictated by the fact that we are assuredly dealing with a Town!Galz.
3) That I should be looking at you AND Eevee as Town. I submit that the actions would make one assume both of you are not Skum, but one of you easily still could be.
MORE IMPORTANTLY:
Now I need to re read to make sure everything parses... but the last few posts have made me realize that (and I get how skummy this freeking sounds, but it is absolutely true) - Every Townie alive has two primary objectives at this point in time:
1) Lynch Skum
2) Don't get lynched
(If we fail both of these tasks, then we are reliant upon accidently finding the poisoned ally and go to "must find the poisoner" situation tomorrow.)
I am not sold on the idea that this is not Skum!Galz. I am simply acknowledging that I do not believe I can currently succeed at both of the above points if I am tunneling you. Thought about this yesterday, and I didn't want to type it out because there was just no point. It makes me look skummy for backing off, it takes pressure of of you (who I still think could be Skum). So I have an idea:
Between you and I, there is one fact that must be true based on our 100% knowledge - There absolutely cannot be a Skum Team reamaining of Galz!Swan.
Since the majority of our reads seem to lead us to the conclusion against each other, either one of us is Skum, Skum is setting us up, or we are missing something.
To quote the words of our fallen E!, "I will team with skum to lynch skum".
If I remove the possibility that you, I, Teproc, or O are lynched today (only way to do it that makes sense in this context - whole idea is for me to not consider you, I cannot consider myself because if I die we lose and then it is irrelevant, and Teproc and O because Mason claim yadda yadda)... My lynch pool is narrowed at it's widest to RR, Faust, and Eevee. Now I am not saying that 2 among them must be skum, because I am still acting under the mentality that you could be the second (and if you wanna play skum hunter with me you should do the same as it relates to me). However, with these 3 remaining, these are the possibilities I am left with to consider:
Lynch Town!RR - If so, it would suggest Eevee is also Town (could be lying about RR Track I guess, but why would he? could of just of easily claimed Teproc or O in that situation trying to "verify" they were masons. This of course would of left RR on the table as a potential lynch candidate). Because of this, I would be left with you or Faust and to determine where I would go I would need to decide whether it is more likely RR was attempting to bus Faust or get him killed as Town - either making him the candidate for Skum or between you and Eevee.
Lynch Skum!RR - If so, I imagine he will flip Poisoner. It would leave the most likely remaining skum in my mind to be Eevee (no RR in any tracks, and then randomly claimed to think he was the skummiest last night. Assuming that the Poisoner is not allowed to let another skum mate poison for them - I believe that to be true - based on the whole "probably poisoner if skum" logic I guess I can see why, but still.. Eevee would be at the top. Then you simply by PoE because he has been hardcoring me and Faust all game.
Lynch Town!Faust - If so, it would mean that poison was blocked or Faust was poisoned. Also, based on claims, it would have me looking at you as the last remaining Skum.
Lynch Skum!Faust - If so, I imagine he will flip not the Poisoner based on the same logic everyone has mentioned. At this point I would kind of rule you out I guess? Leaving me to read back on Faust!Eevee and Faust!RR.
Lynch Town!Eevee - If so, it would mean poison was blocked or Eevee was poisoned. It would also mean RR is not Poisoner (which to me makes him Town). This leaves you and Faust and TBH I have to go back and re read on this situation more to decide where I would go there.
Lynch Skum!Eevee - If so, Eevee will either flip Tracker or Poisoner. If they flip Poisoner, based on bid claims and the likelihood of setting up that admittedly amazing play, I would be looking at you as the last remaining Skum. If they flip Tracker, I would be looking at RR as last remaining Skum based on same logic under the "Skum!RR" idea.
After doing this exercise I realized something interesting - if I reverse engineer you into the situation, I actually think I would prefer to lynch RR today instead of you. He makes just as much sense and also would reveal potentially far more information. Also, I currently believe he is the most likely place to find the Poisoner.
Not saying it removes you from the table. Just assuming the following:
Lynch Town!Galz - Doesn't tell us much I guess. You were voting Space to be true - so I guess since I think there was at least one bus on Space, that would mean Eevee next. You have been fighting me, but I can't argue that there are skummy ties I have unfortunately not prevented. You could be pro-playing with Faust, but you also could not be. And you have limited interactions with RR.
Lynch Skum!Galz - Tells us less. I think there is still a chance that you could be the Poisoner, but honestly upon doing this, I think it is more likely to be RR. Assuming you come up Goon... I assume there must of been at least one bus on Space so there is that, but it doesn't mean that there were not 2. You could be pro-playing with Faust, but I don't think he is poisoner so probably not.. so I guess Faust would be next. And you have limited interactions with RR so IDK.
Also, FWIW:
Lynch Town!Swan - Pretty much puts you on the block. All of this puts us back at square one as above.
Lynch Goon!Swan - Poisoner kind of has to be RR still. You don't make sense. Faust has never made sense. If I am Goon then Eevee is Tracker and therefore town. Again, square one.
Lynch Poisoner!Swan - So in the fairness of the exercise I will be honest. Obviously, this has an upside. You get essentially absolved, RR's strategy would not make sense if I am the Poisoner and he is a Goon. If I am Poisoner then Eevee must be Tracker and is therefore likely Town. Faust is the remaining target making the clear team Swan!Faust. This is of course dictated on the concept of me being exactly the Poisoner.
At the end of this I want to say something like, "if people still want to, I am down to still lynch Galz", but honestly, I do not think that is true right now.
For now at least,
Vote: RR is where I want to be.