Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[faust]

I find it unlikely that scum would taken Watcher + Ninja. Those roles don't really synergize together.

[Galzria]

I find it unlikely that scum would taken Watcher + Ninja. Those roles don't really synergize together.

It doesn't matter what's likely or not. It matters what's possible or not.

[faust]

I find it unlikely that scum would taken Watcher + Ninja. Those roles don't really synergize together.

It doesn't matter what's likely or not. It matters what's possible or not.

Right. Ninja is in the same slot as Poisoner, and we know town!e went for Barracks.

[Galzria]

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or 8): Poisoner
2. ?????? (8 or 15)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. ???? (52 to 72)
9. e (73): Barracks, JoaT (Unchoson Options: Godfather, Investigation Immune)
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. ???? (23)
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. ??? (3)
17. ??? (3)

Unclaimed bids:
gkrieg - Draft #11 or #8: Redirector
chairs - ????: VT
WW - ????: VT
IDPTG - ????: VT
Jimmm - 2nd Day IC

[Galzria]

Regarding the claims themselves:

Like Space was Watcher, if Eevee is scum he almost definitely must be Tracker. He claimed prior to Me, Datswan, RR & e - all of whom are above him in the drafting order. As Tracker was not in the Barracks, there's no way scum could have known that it was a safe fake claim - thus, choosing to claim it as scum runs a high risk of being counter claimed. While that sets up a potential 1v1, it's just not worth it in that situation.

Further, Eevee knew that Qvist as PotI. While there are outlying scenario's where scum could know this by other fashion, none are highly likely. So Eevee, alignment independent, almost must be the Tracker.

(Please feel free to correct anything I'm overlooking, but I just don't see how he (or a teammate? - I suppose they could've swapped results?) reasonably could be anything else).

Faust, Datswan, RR and myself all have viable safe "fake" claims. That is, in my case and RR's case, we've both claimed to attempt to draft scum PR's that were higher in the order than us. For Faust, he's claimed to attempt to draft a dead townie's PR. One that conceivably could come from below him, but there's no real way to check. And lastly Swan has claimed to attempt to draft the Barracks - If he's sitting in Iguana's spot, and that is indeed what Iguana attempted to draft, scum would know that somebody had beaten them to it. Thus the claim itself is perfectly safe to make.

[Galzria]

The below is simply me filling things in as it makes sense to me, such that I feel like I'm not looking for missing pieces of information. Feel free to use or disregard - it probably doesn't really have any actual bearing on anything important. I'm going to start my rereads following this.

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or 8): Poisoner
2. WW (8 or 15): Failed Poisoner (Bid from last game, won as scum at Draft #4)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. Jimmmm (52 to 72): 2nd Day-IC
9. e (73): Barracks, JoaT (Unchoson Options: Godfather, Investigation Immune)
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. Gkrieg (23): Redirector
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. IDPTG (3): ????
17. Archetype/Chairs (3): ????

[Eevee]

Galzria, you are right of course. I probably should have thought more who to track, I just didn't think I'd live if I could make a difference.

Fwiw, Galzria's breakdown of the claims seems fair (and towny) to me.

[faust]

Galzria, you are right of course. I probably should have thought more who to track, I just didn't think I'd live if I could make a difference.

Fwiw, Galzria's breakdown of the claims seems fair (and towny) to me.

I think he's trying to make himself look townier by implying a known townie made the same qeustionable decision he did, i.e. going for Poisoner.

[faust]

On the other hand, if Galz is scum, then scum would have gotten slots 1,3,4 and would almost certainly not actually be a VT. Since we know iguana was VT, Galzria could not have been his substitute claim.

The more I think of this, the more I believe the decision need to be between DatSwan and RR.

[Swowl]

On the other hand, if Galz is scum, then scum would have gotten slots 1,3,4 and would almost certainly not actually be a VT. Since we know iguana was VT, Galzria could not have been his substitute claim.

The more I think of this, the more I believe the decision need to be between DatSwan and RR.

I think with the lack of roles discovered thus far in the game it isn't the most far fetched concept that skum came up with 1, 2, and 3...

Especially based on everyone's generally accepted logic of "Skum bid lost numbers". We have no one claiming 4 or 8 or 15, and Space claimed 16 bid getting 3.
Is it really unreasonable, with the knowledge we have now, to assume that they bid 4/8, 8/15, 16, and X?

[Swowl]

given the crew currently in space I could find a switch. Hour left I need to think for a minute.

Well, Town!Space & Scum!Swan is out the window.

See it’s things like this that make me think it neeeedddsss to be Galz. This is clearly a set up of Skum Galz!Space when Galz knows his guy is going down to further try and sell me tomorrow. Is no one really willing to consider this as a better lynch??

I mean if not whatever I will continue to think for like 10 minutes on my Space switxhand get back.

Swan trying to save Space.

@O
I see that now, I misremembered!

I think I want to lynch Swan. I didn't remember Galzria being there to help us lynch Space in the end.

So your logic here is that since some people were on Space (an already admitted unsubstantiated start up wagon) and I wasn't it makes it more likely that I am skum?
I would normally agree with you except I was kind of openly fighting about not going Space. Obviously, I was wrong on my read... but if I was skum... and E! already said he would hammer... why would I put up a fight? Not to be over reading the situation, but I feel like Skum!Anyone would do the exact opposite.

[Swowl]

Space Re Read. I focused on Voting History for the most part attempting to find patterns between wagons Space was on with people still in the game.

Day 1: (Space with Galz and II)

LaLight (6): Jimmmmm, gkrieg, SpaceAnemone, IDontPlayThisGame, Galzria, iguaniguana
RoadRunner7671 (2): Qvist, Archetype
IDontPlayThisGame (9): RoadRunner7671, faust, 2.71828, LaLight, DatSwan, Teproc, Witherweaver, O, Eevee

Personally, I find it difficult to deduce Day 1 actions at this point. More to do with me exactly, and my lack of experience in the game... but everything seems so... random. That being said, for purposes of this read, the relevant fact is that Space was voting for LL along with Iguana and Galz. However, LL did not get lynched.



Day2: (Space with Swan, Galz, O, Eevee, RR, and II)

LaLight (: DatSwan, O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, iguanaiguana
gkrieg13 (2): LaLight, faust
Galzria (1): Teproc

This was a cool day. Space was on LL, again with Galz, but also with myself, O, Eevee, II, and RR. This time LL went down. Obviously, he ended up being SK so yay there, but that is not a relevant factor for this read. What is relevant is that confirmed!Skum wanted LL to go down D1, it didn't work. Obviously, they chose not to kill LL at night. Only reason I can think of was to try and hang him the next day. Annnndd, surprisingly enough, both II and Space were on LL D2 when he hung, with Galz for a second time in a row, and me, O, Eevee and RR for the first time.


Day 3: (Space with Galz, Eevee, Teproc)

iguanaiguana (7): Eevee, gkrieg13, Galzria, Teproc, 2.71828, SpaceAnemone, Qvist
Teproc (1): iguanaiguana
Not Voting (5): chairs, RoadRunner7671, faust, O, DatSwan

Short day. 3/3 Space and Galz on the same vote. 2/3 Eevee and Galz on the same vote. I want to draw conclusions based on the day, but I just can't (even on the Galz/Eevee front). The day was just so short. Life happens. People sleep and work. For the purposes of being unbias, I am only using D3 exactly for numbers and drawing no conclusions on this read from it.


Day 4: (Space with Swan)
Galzria (2): DatSwan, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (6): O, Teproc, Galzria, Qvist, Eevee, 2.71828
DatSwan (2): faust, RoadRuner7671

Only notes I can make on D4 as relevant to this read are that me and Space are on the same person (Galz). I also assume that there is about a 0% chance that NO ONE was bussing Space. From that I gather either O, Teproc, Galz, or Eevee must be skum. O and Teproc are essentially town imo at this point, so Galz or Eevee.


I am attempting to keep this read specifically based on Votes, so I am not going to share my inferences at this point. This read has given me 2 primary candidates. I will re read them tonight under a different context and post either this evening or tomorrow morning on it.

[Eevee]

On the other hand, if Galz is scum, then scum would have gotten slots 1,3,4 and would almost certainly not actually be a VT. Since we know iguana was VT, Galzria could not have been his substitute claim.

The more I think of this, the more I believe the decision need to be between DatSwan and RR.

That's my guess for the team!

[Roadrunner7671]

vote: Faust

[Swowl]

side note - if it is Teproc and O I am seriously going to get a freekin trophy made or something

[Galzria]

SpaceyMcSpacester:

Space's first interaction with a still-alive player:

Gonna fill the below in from Space. They had no reason to make up the below, so I'll assume it's all true. Might be informative though. Thanks Space!

Right, I've got my vote-counting stuff set up for this game now :-)

Here's the peak (or peaks) of any wagon so far that's gotten up to at least 4 people.

#105: LaLight (4): IDontPlayThisGame, Teproc, O, Jimmmmm
#138: LaLight (4): Teproc, O, Jimmmmm, Witherweaver
#200: gkrieg13 (6): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone, faust, Teproc, LaLight, DatSwan
#232: gkrieg13 (4): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone, Teproc, LaLight
#348: Roadrunner7671 (4): Teproc, iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Qvist
#362: gkrieg13 (4): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone, LaLight, DatSwan
#379: Eevee (4): faust, O, gkrieg13, Galzria
#380: Roadrunner7671 (4): Teproc, iguanaiguana, Qvist, DatSwan
#388: gkrieg13 (4): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone, LaLight, Teproc
#440: Roadrunner7671 (6): Qvist, DatSwan, Galzria, faust, Archetype, Eevee
#470: Witherweaver (5): O, Teproc, Galzria, gkrieg13, Eevee

Check out that wagon on RR at #440! If RR is scum, then the last scum -must- be bussing. And if RR is town, then both remaining scum were on him there. Note that 60 posts earlier, Iguana WAS on RR, but he bounced outta there as things were heating up. Noticeably however, if RR is scum, Iguana bounced but Datswan did not - which means Datswan would be committed to the bus as the heat got turned on. At the moment (based on my Space reread? lol), I'm inclined to believe that {RR/Datswan} are less likely to be paired.


Notable, given the time frame above:

I have iguana moving to DatSwan at #394, dropping RR from having three votes to have two.

The below quote is Space's first reads list that includes more than just their vote for gkrieg. Notable - Eevee is the only player not on there. Faust/RR/Galz/Swan all come up as Null-ish:

Towards the end of D1, Space throws some shade towards O and RR. In particular RR - based on the theory of LL being Mafia - something Space knew wasn't true. This sort of pairing is an easy way to call out a scum partner while painting it on a false premise:

Note also that RR and O are the two main late drifters from the LL wagon onto IDP: RR moved at #665, and O at #679.

RR has also been active online very recently, so if there's a partner to be found, that's a good place to look.

Just before end of day count from Space:

#739
LaLight (7): Jimmmmm, gkrieg13, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, IDontPlayThisGame, Galzria, iguanaiguana
Roadrunner7671 (2): Qvist, Archetype
IDontPlayThisGame (8): Roadrunner7671, faust, 2.71828....., O, LaLight, DatSwan, Teproc, Witherweaver

I personally think it's more likely for scum to be split 2-2 on the wagons above, but I don't think it's super telling one way or another. There was no super strong reason for them to be stacked any which way.


On that note, early D2, Gkrieg requests the following. It's noteworthy in that either all the people voting WW D1 were "not-Mafia" aligned (not impossible), or Eevee is in fact Mafia:

Teproc is the one who was talking about empty posts and post counts and stuff right?  That is the only reason I can think of why you kill WW.  I don't think you want to kill people that had a wagon on them D1, because they have the most information.  We now know 2 people who had wagons on them are town, which can tell us something about the game.

Space, could we get the list of everyone that voted for WW or IDPTG please?

People who voted for WW: LaLight, Galzria, gkrieg13, Teproc, Eevee, O.

People who voted for IDP: LaLight, Galzria, 2.71828....., Teproc, Witherweaver, DatSwan, Eevee, Roadrunner7671, faust, O.

The following two quotes come in back to back posts by Space - That puts Space, me and Datswan all on LL early D2. I don't think (from other's perspective) that makes a Space/Swan/Galz scum team all that likely. YMMV on how you feel about that though.

The below conversation with faust feels artificial:

So does the following conversation with Eevee:

The most incriminating piece of Space quoting I've found to date:

Space Count

LaLight (7): DatSwan, O, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, Eevee, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671
gkrieg13 (2): LaLight, faust
Galzria (1): Teproc

Not Voting (5): 2.71828....., Archetype, Qvist, iguanaiguana, Jimmmmm

The only players not voting are town, and Iguana. The other 3 Mafia are all voting. Teproc is on me. LL is on Gkrieg. I don't honestly believe that all 3 Mafia are pushing LL here knowing that LL isn't one of them. This is L-1. There's no reason for scum to be piled up here. LL is almost certainly the lynch of the day at this point, with or without them. I think faust is incredibly scummy here.


Space only had 1 post D3, and that was a late vote for Iguana. Disregarding that and moving on to D4, Space opens with their claim:

Sorry I wasn't able to get to this last night. I'm now dipping in briefly on my lunch break to try to catch up, and then I should be back properly late in the evening, like 23.30 my time (18.30 forum time).

I'm the Watcher. In case it wasn't obvious from earlier in the game, I bid 16, which was why I specifically asked LL to re-check his bid when he claimed #16. I came in at #3, so it was highly unlikely for him to be at #6 with the same bid. I assumed Galz was also thinking along those lines when he was so suspicious of LL, too.

My night targets were faust, Galz and then Galz again. Two people targeted Galz on the middle night of those three: gkrieg and Qvist. Nobody targeted faust N1 or Galz last night.

A few thoughts on this:
1) Watching me N2 makes perfect sense and lines up with what's happened since. On N2 scum killed the IC and watched me (remember, I had claimed D2). They were looking for PR's that might choose to target me that night (Doctors, Trackers, etc) - they watched me to PR hunt. They saw Gkrieg and Qvist, which explains them killing Gkrieg the following night. My running theory is still that they have a Roleblocker - N1 they blocked LL (no kill, no threat to be jailed), N2 they blocked someone, N3 they blocked Qvist (killing Gkrieg), N4 they blocked Eevee (rendering him moot).
2) Tracking faust N1 when you have little/no outside information is extremely partner-y.


More from D4. D4 is hard to track because I think scum is being careful to spread around their suspicion here. But below, Space joins in on my scum-team-calling:

I don't think Space chooses 3 townies to pair with Iguana here. And e wasn't scum. So I think it's absolutely fair to be looking at specifically either faust or Eevee (and possibly both).

I do want to take a moment to note that a LOT of Space's D4 (especially early on) is to find faust scummy, but very clearly and loudly point out over and over again that faust is probably scum, but not the poisoner. See below for two examples of such:

Faust -- claims VT at #1493, having bid 3, got position 15 and bid for Redirector. Seems really scummy for his resistance to the claiming exercise and his antagonising of Teproc et al. But I do think he's probably unlikely to be the poisoner, firstly because he's too obviously being scummy at this point, and secondly because I agree with the people saying that the smart thing for a scum team to do would be to hide the poisoner as another clained PR, especially since e started pushing quite a while ago to lynch amongst the VTs to catch the real poisoner after Iguana flipped goon.

Who reasonably gets draft #1?

faust

Or any other scum! You're forgetting that the scum team gets to coordinate on their bids. I did a pretty good job picking my very own number in the first version even though I had the scum QT to talk to, but reasonably any scum team with faust on it gets to have him pick out numbers for everyone if they want to do it that way. No need for him to have the super-exposed high bid personally. That's why I think him bidding an oddball is totally reasonable.

Smart human. Such good question asking. If a player was essentially killed two different ways, this would be indicated in flavor, ie... “Player X died in the night. He succumbed to poison and was found shot in the head.”

Okay, this is good! We wake up tomorrow and prove I'm not the poisoner, because I can 100% guarantee that Galz won't die of poison, and even if he's NKd tonight, the rest of you will be able to see he wasn't also poisoned.

This means it's ridiculous to push for my lynch today, because there are actual scums out there and the only people wanting to risk a non-scum player over an obvious scummy one like faust are the ones who're pushing for me because I'm kind of a traditional mislynch. Even if faust isn't the poisoner, we still win if we take out a scum today and the poisoner tomorrow, once we've had one more night of info-gathering.

The last one above I even called out yesterday - "Don't lynch me, I'm not the poisoner! Lynch Faust instead - even if he's not the poisoner we still keep going!" I think it's likely that if Faust is scum, he is, in fact, NOT the poisoner. That said, I'll concede that there are arguments for Faust not being Space's partner based on how much Space was pushing him D4... I just feel more like Space was looking to push a partner in the hopes of buying towncred, but also didn't push too hard in the hopes that somebody else got lynched instead. Space certainly kept the doors open on other players the entire time - it's not like they solely tunneled on Faust. I dunno. Just... all feels partner-y. Faust will definitely be my next reread.


Getting closer to the end of the day now, Space makes their first fully "fleshed out" case on faust:

Now we're really getting close to the end of the day. It's clear that faust isn't going to happen (Tep/O had no interest in going there), so Space spins to me - making note that they would go back to faust if needed:

It's worth noting that if you think that I'm scum - the end of day from Space should strongly suggest that I'm NOT the Poisoner. Space continues to look for an out, and Teproc states at one point that I'm the only other person he's really willing to consider outside of Space. Scum!Watcher!Space does not go out of their way to live at the expense of Scum!Poisoner!Galz:

O and Teproc: would you at least reconsider on Galz, given that I presented actual evidence there? Or Datswan if Galz's old evidence there hald more weight for you instead?

e: would you be willing to move that way, given that you agree I'm not a good lynch today? Though I think your current vote on faust is also well-placed.

PPE: I would lynch Galz... well, I think all the non-hammering means I prefer you (Space) over him at this point.

Vote: Galz is way more sensible, people!

And... that's it for Space.

From Space alone, I'm leaning towards, in order: Faust/Eevee/RR/Swan - and that will be the order in which I reread those 4, unless something from one prompts me to change it up.

[Galzria]

On the flip side of all that, while I don't think faust is the likely Poisoner, I feel like Eevee or RR are my leading candidates.

It's possible that e blocked Poisoner!RR, and thus town!Eevee saw no result.

[faust]

It's possible that e blocked Poisoner!RR, and thus town!Eevee saw no result.

That really doesn't line up with e's stated reads.

[Galzria]

It's possible that e blocked Poisoner!RR, and thus town!Eevee saw no result.

That really doesn't line up with e's stated reads.

Don't think it's likely - just possible.

[Galzria]

Doing my next reread now: But as I'm doing it, the thought that if Tep/O are scum I'm going to be very upset crossed my mind - not because they don't deserve to win if they are (they do) - but because I'm wasting my damn time doing this when there's a 0% chance I win here.

Also, while I'm doing this (and as it's my only day off over the course of a 10-day, 90 hour work span), DAMA.

[Galzria]

Also, while I'm here, since Faust referenced it and I recall it now from D1:

I am somewhat suspicious of Iguana's claim, for the record.

I'm like, 100% certain that WW was Draft #2 and attempted to take Poisoner.

[Galzria]

I'm all alone. Datswan is at work, Faust and Eevee are completely different time zones, RR never posts, and Tep/O won't come out and play!

[Roadrunner7671]

I'll post whenever I get asked a question, but late game wagon analysis is something that I am like 0% at.

[Galzria]

I'll post whenever I get asked a question, but late game wagon analysis is something that I am like 0% at.

Yay! Well, why Faust? You weren't on the wagon for Space, but I also don't think you were around. Then again, neither was Faust. Swan was. He wasn't on the lynch either. So why Faust?

[Galzria]

Break from my reread. This amused me D1, and it amuses me now. Oh the challenges of Mafia. The following two posts were literally made back-to-back, 7 seconds apart, following LL's claim. One of two things are true now (and were then, but we had less information then): WW is town and Eevee is town, or WW is town and Eevee is scum. They're both reading the same game though. They're both reading the same posts. And they both come to absolutely 100% different opinions on the exact same things. In a completely black and white universe, I think this would suggest Eevee is scum - but here, I just think that it is what it is. Two people reading things two completely different ways.

I think LL is town.

LL sure sounds like scum.