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[ehunt]

THREAD LOCKED

Sorry, I don't know the flip and I don't know when Insom is back.

[Insomniac]

Voltgloss decided it was his time to shine, I am the cop he claimed! After a moment Qvist looked up and said no you aren't I am and Frisk didn't do anything! Voltgloss said I can confirm Captain_Frisk is indeed innocent. The town bickered who was the real cop surely Insomniac had only invited one. Later the town decided that it was best to not kill either of the cop claimants. They instead took Axxle out to the pool and held his head under the water until eventually he became lifeless. Removing Axxle's head from the water they searched his person but were unable to find a gun or any switches. Seemed Axxle was a Vanilla Townie

Extended Night Phase Until December 3rd 8:30am PST

[Insomniac]

The sun strikes your eyes like a kick in the nuts. This isn't the day you wanted or the day you needed. You felt sick. If you didn't find scum the hired help was threatening to kill the whole lot of you themselves. There was no breakfast provided. A rough day indeed. To make things worse upon checking the rooms for known living members you found one dead. TheMunch the town doctor has been killed the stethoscope and wierd wiring all down his back alerted you to as much.

Day 4 start thread unlocked. (Yes it's early. My car broke down and I have limited access time while getting it fixed)

[Qvist]

I wasn't online as you all lynched Axxle. Nicely played, Voltgloss.
Now we're 2 townies more down. This time your tunneling worked out.
This night we all have to lynch the right one or we lose, guys.

And there's no reason not to Vote: Voltgloss

[Voltgloss]

Not too surprisingly, I did not get any investigation results today.  So last scum is between ash and yuma.  I assume scum will kill me tonight after we lynch Qvist, so Frisk, I wish you the best of luck figuring things out on the final day. 

Vote: Qvist

At this point, without benefit of a full reread, if a gun was held to my head and I had to pick the last scum I'd say ash.  It's a choice between (1) would joth/ash/Qvist scumteam pile two votes so quickly on the yuma case on Day 2; vs. (2) would joth/yuma/Qvist scumteam let yuma's wagon sit at L-1 for so long on Day 2.  While I thought (1) was fairly unlikely throughout the game, I nevertheless (1) is more likely than (2).  Plus there is the fact that ash was the first proponent of lynching Axxle before Frisk laid out the plan.

I'm still flabbergasted that Axxle was the 5%. 

[Voltgloss]

"I nevertheless (1)" should read "I nevertheless think (1)"

[Qvist]

Yeah, I agree with you here. It's either yuma or ashersky and as yesterday ashersky would still be my No #1 pick.

[yuma]

Well for me the one thing I do know is that ash is scum. With 4 vts dead and frisk a confirmed vt and myself a vt that is a total of six.

That means ash is lying. I am not 100% sure about volt and qvist obviously. But I an absolutely sure about ash. And because of that I can go back and do some analysis from that perspective but won't be able to do so until after work and rotations.

[Qvist]

yuma has brought up an interesting point. From CFs perspective there are 2 50/50 choices.
One between me and Voltgloss and another one between yuma and ashersky. One of each pair is willing to vote for the other one.
So, CFs vote is really important but also dangerous, because if he votes for town, scum will probably immediately quickhammer, right?
But the same goes for any of the other ones. If anyone votes for someone other than his "pair partner", scum has the opportunity to quickhammer if the choice wasn't correct. That means that I keep my vote on Voltgloss, although it might actually be possible to lynch either yuma or ashersky today.

[Voltgloss]

Unfortunately, looks like Frisk isn't around much if at all this week.  He posted this in the Buffy game:

I posted this in Vla - but I am traveling this week. Nearly off the grid until next Sunday. With a 12/20 deadline this seems ok - but f mod wants to replace me - so be it.

Insom, what's our lynch deadline? 

[Insomniac]

Unfortunately, looks like Frisk isn't around much if at all this week.  He posted this in the Buffy game:

I posted this in Vla - but I am traveling this week. Nearly off the grid until next Sunday. With a 12/20 deadline this seems ok - but f mod wants to replace me - so be it.

Insom, what's our lynch deadline?

2 weeks as per normal

[Voltgloss]

2 weeks as per normal

So Monday, Dec. 17th, at 10:00 a.m. EST?  Okay, thanks.

[Qvist]

After trying to get an insight about yuma vs. ashersky from yesterday's behaviour, I think I have an idea what might going on. Voltgloss tried the bandwagon on day 2 to kill yuma what ended in yuma claiming VT after nobody wanted to do the hammer. He realized that it won't work and was actually the first to unvote what I just looked up.

Yesterday he tried to start a bandwagon on me what ended in us both claiming cop. But he always accused both Axxle and me and then the bandwagon on Axxle started. This was like this.

@Volt, I think I'm good with you coming in now... I'm solidly convinced that Axxle is scum and we're going to win.

This was the sign for ashersky who was really quiet until then.

Popped in to catch up and a new plan is there.

I said Volt/Axxle or Q/Axxle, and I still think that.  I like Frisk's plan, and think he understands I had this plan as well.

I am okay with Vote: Axxle with Frisk's plan.

Voltgloss was the next to vote and then:

Ill read through but beer friday started at the office and wereI headed toto a bar later so i cant guarantee a good response

L-1 and we get this?  I say hammer.

I'm pretty confident with a Voltgloss / ashersky scum pair.

[ashersky]

Well for me the one thing I do know is that ash is scum. With 4 vts dead and frisk a confirmed vt and myself a vt that is a total of six.

That means ash is lying. I am not 100% sure about volt and qvist obviously. But I an absolutely sure about ash. And because of that I can go back and do some analysis from that perspective but won't be able to do so until after work and rotations.

False.  This is scum!yuma coming in quickly to try to establish himself as the valid VT.  He is 100% scum, because I know I am VT.

Between the two "cops", I was more wary of VG yesterday, and with Axxle's flip I feel even more suspicious.  Volt's "huh, can't believe he was the 5%" thing seems so insincere.

Also, no offense Qvist, but I don't see anyone in this game sophisticated enough to pull off this kind of gambit, other than Frisk, Voltgloss, and Yuma.  Frisk is cleared by the real cop, so that leaves the two alive and both playing suspiciously. 

Occam's Razor here: who's the most likely mastermind, newbie!scum Qvist or expert!mafia player Volt?

I am leaning toward Volt, with a side of Yuma for support.

[Voltgloss]

Not surprised at all to see ash immediately reneging on Frisk's plan to lynch Qvist if Axxle flipped town.  And also not surprised to see ash conveniently forget that he ALSO pushed hard for Axxle's lynch yesterday.   

In any case, given that 2 of us are town and 2 of us are scum, we're not going to get anywhere until Frisk arrives.  Given his V/LAness that's going to be a while. 

[ashersky]

Yuma! where did you go!

eating diner with the wife! This isn't a blitz game!

So for this plan I need to get refreshed on what our game plan is if Axxle turns up town.

I would also like some axxle town plan details

Axxle == town means that barring something crazy - I recommend a Qvist lynch tomorrow, and then you're @ lylo on day 5 with (most likely) munch / yuma / asher - as these are the only people with unknown alignments.

Doctor should "probably" protect me, but should probably employ a mixed strategy of protecting me 50% of the time, and one of the other 2 unknowns 1/6 of the time.

Here is what I think Volt is calling Frisk's "plan."  He made a recommendation, which I am sure he will comment on today.  But blindly lynching Qvist is what scum!Volt would want, right?

I'll not Yuma didn't agree with this, either.  Check the post immediately after.  I agreed to lynching Axxle first, then the fake cop.  Right now, that sounds like you.  I just want to hear more than whoopsie and "Qvist is the liar" to try and convince me.  You usually articulate things well.  Why can't you articulate this?  (I mean in today's context, post you pushing hard a town lynch).

[Voltgloss]

I agreed to lynching Axxle first, then the fake cop. 

Quote the post where you did this.

[ashersky]

I agreed to lynching Axxle first, then the fake cop. 

Quote the post where you did this.

Quote the post where I agreed to "frisk's plan."

Instead of answering my question directed to you, you ask for a quote?

[Voltgloss]

Quote the post where I agreed to "frisk's plan."

Popped in to catch up and a new plan is there.

I said Volt/Axxle or Q/Axxle, and I still think that.  I like Frisk's plan, and think he understands I had this plan as well.

I am okay with Vote: Axxle with Frisk's plan.

[ashersky]

Quote the post where I agreed to "frisk's plan."

Popped in to catch up and a new plan is there.

I said Volt/Axxle or Q/Axxle, and I still think that.  I like Frisk's plan, and think he understands I had this plan as well.

I am okay with Vote: Axxle with Frisk's plan.

Frisk's plan to lynch Axxle, then the cop.  I've already stated I don't think Frisk thought we'd lynch Qvist automatically today, but that we would lynch the likely fake cop.  We should wait for Frisk to clarify.

And still, you refuse to respond to my question.  I believe it's because you can't, and that's because you must be lying.

[Voltgloss]

Quote the post where I agreed to "frisk's plan."

Popped in to catch up and a new plan is there.

I said Volt/Axxle or Q/Axxle, and I still think that.  I like Frisk's plan, and think he understands I had this plan as well.

I am okay with Vote: Axxle with Frisk's plan.

Frisk's plan to lynch Axxle, then the cop.  I've already stated I don't think Frisk thought we'd lynch Qvist automatically today, but that we would lynch the likely fake cop.  We should wait for Frisk to clarify.

We don't have to.  Below is Frisk's plan in its entirety.  Note the bolded section.

All right guys:  4 scenarios to think about.

1. Qvist is scum and Axxle is Scum
2. Qvist is scum and Axxle is Not Scum
3. Volt is scum and Axxle is Scum
4. Volt is scum and Axxle is not scum

If we lynch Axxle, we win if either Scenario 1 or 3 is true.  (It will no longer matter what order we lynch Volt or Qvist in)

So - we really need to worry about scenarios 2 and 4.

Let's assume for a second that Volt is scum:

Letting an investigation go last night was incredibly bold.  Volt claims to be shocked.  If Volt is scum, and he's pressing super hard on Qvist and Axxle.  If Axxle is town - then he's attempting to drive against not only 1, but 2 townies.  Neither of them are going to agree with them, so now volt needs to convince 2 of the remaining 3 town to join with him, or he's F'd - and he's brought it upon himself. 

Thus, I do not believe that it is possible Volt is scum and Axxle is town.

Now lets consider the pair of them.  Both experienced players may be willing to do something crazy (like let a cop investigation happen and then early claim cop)  I'm sure we can all see the narrative here.  We lynch Qvist (cop) - he flips town -> I guess it was Voltgloss.  OR We lynch Voltgloss.  Axxle proclaims "I was right!" and gets immense town cred.  I mean seriously.  Axxle has already called out the correct investigations for Qvist tonight. 

As I type this, I agree that it doesn't seem very likely.  I really want to believe Voltgloss.  However, I am 99.8% certain that scenario 4 is not possible.

If we lynch Axxle and he's town, then I am 100% certain that Qvist is scum, and we can lynch him tomorrow.

The best part of this plan, is that it leaves mafia in a bind.  They once again have to choose between giving an investigation to the cop or having doctor protection.  They also have to worry about who to kill. 

1. Kill one of (Asher / Munch / Yuma) - this narrows down the other suspects.
2. Block the cop and Try to kill me (the likely doctor target)
3. Block the doctor and kill me (letting the cop get an extra investigation)
4. Kill the cop - and remove any doubt of who the scum inside of {volt,qvist} is.

The reason why I favor this approach is that

1. It allows us to win straight out.
2. There is 0 chance of lynching the town cop
3. I find QVists behavior plausible as newbie town cop
3a. I find Qvists behavior as plausible as newbie scum (in which case I think his scum parter is also newish - because I think letting the cop investigate was BAD play)
4. I find Volt's behavior plausible as town cop (i do love roleclaims)
4a. I find Volts + Axxles + Joth's behavior as plausible as advanced scum play
5. I find Volt's claim to have investigated me as totally scummy
5a. I find QVists claim to have investigated me as plausible.
6. I find Axxles play to make no sense as town, but to be very plausible as scum for either partner.
7. If Axxle is town - in my opinion it confirms which one of the "cops" is lying.

[ashersky]

I will continue to ask why you won't respond to my question and why you keep diverting the conversation.  It's like you are trying to get met to put Qvist at L-1 early for a quick hammer.  What's the rush? 

Scum scum scum, man.  That's what all your behavior is adding up to.  Start trying to be pro-town, actually respond to questions, state your case.  That is how you'll convince me.  The only people I would NOT lynch today are myself and Frisk.  Two out of the other three are scum, so I have a 66.6 percent chance of lynching correctly.  I think it is in my best interest, as town, to weigh arguments, thoughts, and ideas before brashly voting.

[Voltgloss]

Translation:

oh god my argument that frisk's plan wasn't "lynch yuma if axxle flips town" is completely refuted by the evidence.  and my argument that i wasn't agreeing to frisk's plan is completely refuted by the evidence also.  maybe if i ignore the evidence, don't respond, and attack volt instead, then no one will listen to volt or the evidence

Your "responses" have convinced me you are Qvist's scumpartner.  We are done talking, man.

I await Frisk's evaluation.  If Frisk has questions for me, I'll respond.  As I think yuma is town, I'll also respond to his (yuma's) questions.  There is no reason for me to respond to your - or Qvist's - "questions" as all you are trying to accomplish therewith is to push yuma or Frisk to vote for my lynch. 

[ashersky]

Even ruder translation:

Oh my god I can't say anything more because I might give myself away anymore oh please someone please talk so I don't have to keep not responding save me

Also, you are completely lying and putting actual lies in my mouth.  When did I claim Frisk's plan was to lynch Yuma?  I said fake cop.

Your haughty, holier-than-thou dismissal and refusal to participate are clear signals you are caught.

Way to be, man.  Lets just shut down discourse, respect, and gamesmanship.

[Voltgloss]

Also, you are completely lying and putting actual lies in my mouth.  When did I claim Frisk's plan was to lynch Yuma?  I said fake cop.

Quote, right now, where I said you "claim[ed] Frisk's plan was to lynch Yuma."