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[Qvist]

Ok everyone back the F&@# up, I'm about to do some science!

From Diagram I took all of the 2 scum reads from each:

(player) - (scum/reads)
----------------------
Joth - Ash / Eevee
Eevee - Ash / Joth
Axxle - Ash / Joth
Asher - Axxle / Joth
Volt - Asher / Axle

Volt was one of the more towniest and I have agreed that Volt has been looking pretty towny to me.  So lets go forward with our volt-is-town-cap on.

Conclusions:
1) Neither Ash/Axxle/Joth -OR- Ash/Eevee/Joth are scum trios:
     In both cases, 2 of the scum trio fingered both of their hypothetical scumbuddies which I find highly unlikely.
2) Neither Ash/Axxle/Eevee -OR- Axxle/Joth/Eevee are scum trios:
     Note how in each of these scum trios, the hypothetical scum trio would have all fingered the other hypothetical town.  If this town gets linched (Joth and Ash respectively) and flips town, then we have 3 people who were all sold he was scum.
3)  It is not the case that Ash/Axxle/Eevee/Joth are all town.
     Or at least if they are all town then we are screwed because we have 4 town whose top scum reads are all on other town.

So this leaves us with 1 or 2 scum in this bunch.  I like those odds.  Vote: Ash

Why did you ignore me? And why did you ignore the lists? CF was voted top scrum read 3 times. I don't know where you get your data from!

[Qvist]

ashersky is my No. 4, so I feel tempted to hammer. But he now claimed VT which worries me a little.

I'm worried about a no lynch.

That's the problem. But I'm worried about a mislynch too.

Axxle made an interesting point about the Voting being a plan of Mafia. Assuming this is true:
I think Mafia has most control if they vote after a lot have voted so they have more control which townie to mislynch.
Axxle, yuma and Captain_Frisk haven't voted yet.

CF is my top scum read, he hasn't voted yet and I'm currently still voting for Eevee. So I again switch back to Vote: Captain_Frisk

[Captain_Frisk]

The fact that my town reads are voting me is very disturbing.

[Eevee]

6.5 hours to go if I'm not mistaken. I'll be on mobile access until the deadline, will be able to vote at minimum.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm at dentist. Back at computer in an hour or so.

My big problem is that my scum reads agree with me, and my toe reads don't

I think I want eevee or joth lynch.

[Eevee]

I'm at dentist. Back at computer in an hour or so.

My big problem is that my scum reads agree with me, and my toe reads don't

I think I want eevee or joth lynch.

Oh? Well, read our back and forth a couple pages back, should help deciding. Mind explaining how you got to picking between us? After the dentist is ofc fine.

[yuma]

I'm at dentist. Back at computer in an hour or so.

My big problem is that my scum reads agree with me, and my toe reads don't

I think I want eevee or joth lynch.

I kinda do as well; he certainly hasn't been my top scum read of the day (Qvist and ash get that award) but his interactions with other players, his bandwagon onto me and some of the things Eevee and others have outlined.

vote: jotheonah

I felt confident about ash until this morning. I don't really know what changed, but I really hope it isn't me second guessing myself Galzria-style (hmmm, sounds like a funny parody video of Gangam-style)

I am off to rotations, so this will be my last post of the day.

[Captain_Frisk]

Heeeeeeyyy. Scummy laaaaadies

[Qvist]

The fact that my town reads are voting me is very disturbing.

...said scum right before changing his vote?
3 ranked you as their #1 pick of lynching and I'm the only one voting for you currently. Really?


I'm really worried about a No Lynch guys. Especially after yuma made it harder to lynch tonight.
I probably won't be able to be online at deadline, so I will vote in about 2 hours.

This is the current inofficial vote count:

jotheonah (3) - Eevee, Axxle, yuma
ashersky (3) - Captain_Frisk, TheMunch, jotheonah
Axxle (2) - Voltgloss, ashersky
Captain_Frisk (1) - Qvist

None of Axxle, ashersky and jotheonah are my preferred lynches. They are ranked #4-#6 in my scum rating, basically equally scummy. This will be a hard decision.
I don't know what to do here. A mislynch will be horrible, but a No Lynch too.

[TheMunch]

@yuma: I cant decide if what you did was scummy but I can say for certain that that is terrible town play at best.  I understand we all have obligations in real life but sticking down a vote on someone who I think doesn't have a chance to get lynched reads as "I'm ok with a no lynch."  I'm just not sure man...

@Qvist:  It doesn't strike you as the least bit odd that EVERYONE thinks CF is scummy?  If Everyone thinks CF is scummy that includes scum.  This could be seen as scum pushing a towny for a mislynch or fingering their scum buddy for some cred.  I would agree that CF looks fishy but I think I want to see a flip before I lynch him as the "everyone thinks CF is scummy" can be seen in more than one way.

[Eevee]

How does joth have no chance to get lynched? He is at L-2!

[jotheonah]

Should I claim? L/a today and deadline is getting close.

[Captain_Frisk]

My problem with Jonah is that 2 of my "scummy 5" theory are already voting for him.

[Eevee]

I also think generally being suspected but not voted is a scum tell. But I definitely see joth lynch as a possibility and will basically just lobby for it until the wagon fizzles or he gets lynched or there is less than one hour until the deadline (at which point I'll re-evaluate our options).

[TheMunch]

Should I claim? L/a today and deadline is getting close.

NO CLAIMING!

[Eevee]

I don't see a problem with joth claiming. I actually doubt he'll get nightkilled either way because he is suspected so much and scum likes their wifom (unless he is the cop and we lynch someone else who turns out to be the cop switch or something).

[Eevee]

Should I claim? L/a today and deadline is getting close.

NO CLAIMING!

Oh. Why?

[Captain_Frisk]

I also think generally being suspected but not voted is a scum tell. But I definitely see joth lynch as a possibility and will basically just lobby for it until the wagon fizzles or he gets lynched or there is less than one hour until the deadline (at which point I'll re-evaluate our options).

Does that mean you'd be willing to move over to Asher?

[TheMunch]

Should I claim? L/a today and deadline is getting close.

NO CLAIMING!

Oh. Why?

In general I think it is a bad idea.  Although for this game specifically I have already made a post early about why claiming is nonsense with all the switches off.  This was in response to Yuma's VT claim.  Short version:  At best, it lets scum know our power roles before we can gain any information.  But I will also sheep Yuma a bit here cause I think he had the right of it: with two VTs claiming, pretending that only town is claiming, then eventually we will run into too many VT's claiming, maybe there are counterclaims, maybe we out our PRs.  Either way its a bad idea.  I think if Joth claimed PR and he was actually a PR, scum would for sure kill him instead of keeping him alive just to raise suspicions, but thats my gut feeling.  No matter what, its either going to be lies or outed PRs and thats something that is incredibly terrible.

[Captain_Frisk]

Should I claim? L/a today and deadline is getting close.

NO CLAIMING!

Oh. Why?

In general I think it is a bad idea.  Although for this game specifically I have already made a post early about why claiming is nonsense with all the switches off.  This was in response to Yuma's VT claim.  Short version:  At best, it lets scum know our power roles before we can gain any information.  But I will also sheep Yuma a bit here cause I think he had the right of it: with two VTs claiming, pretending that only town is claiming, then eventually we will run into too many VT's claiming, maybe there are counterclaims, maybe we out our PRs.  Either way its a bad idea.  I think if Joth claimed PR and he was actually a PR, scum would for sure kill him instead of keeping him alive just to raise suspicions, but thats my gut feeling.  No matter what, its either going to be lies or outed PRs and thats something that is incredibly terrible.

Ummmm... the munch for sure its better to force scum to NK Joth than lynch him right now?

[Eevee]

I also think generally being suspected but not voted is a scum tell. But I definitely see joth lynch as a possibility and will basically just lobby for it until the wagon fizzles or he gets lynched or there is less than one hour until the deadline (at which point I'll re-evaluate our options).

Does that mean you'd be willing to move over to Asher?

Saying "yes" would kind of derail the joth-wagon don't you think? I'm saying I don't think nolynch is good here.

[Qvist]

@Qvist:  It doesn't strike you as the least bit odd that EVERYONE thinks CF is scummy?  If Everyone thinks CF is scummy that includes scum.  This could be seen as scum pushing a towny for a mislynch or fingering their scum buddy for some cred.  I would agree that CF looks fishy but I think I want to see a flip before I lynch him as the "everyone thinks CF is scummy" can be seen in more than one way.

Huh? If everyone would think that CF is scummy than we wouldn't be in that position. Eevee and Voltgloss has him at #5 and jotheonah at #6. What I meant was directed at you and ashersky. So I make it more direct as it seemed not understandable.
@TheMunch and ashersky? Why don't you vote for Captain_Frisk? But I don't expect that Captain_Frisk gets killed tonight because beside of us 3 there seem no-one willing to vote for him.

[jotheonah]

Well then I won't clAim ... Yet anyway. I think the case against me seems pretty insubstantial, though.

[Captain_Frisk]

I also think generally being suspected but not voted is a scum tell. But I definitely see joth lynch as a possibility and will basically just lobby for it until the wagon fizzles or he gets lynched or there is less than one hour until the deadline (at which point I'll re-evaluate our options).

Does that mean you'd be willing to move over to Asher?

Saying "yes" would kind of derail the joth-wagon don't you think? I'm saying I don't think nolynch is good here.

Well - they are both at L-2.  If you move, that puts ash at L-1.... closer to lynch than no lynch I would think.

[Captain_Frisk]

Actually, I'm going to trust the crumb.

Vote: Joth