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[Eevee]

I'm worried about a no lynch.

Me too, or scum only contributing if the lynch is going to hit a townie.

[Eevee]

That's why I'm wary of saying "yeah ashersky qvist axxle or joth i dont care", and would rather just have it be joth.

[TheMunch]

I just dont know how to get us to a consensus.  There are so many different camps that have formed that people are convinced they have found scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

Can someone who has time put together the cross suspicion charts for zm4 and zm5?

Trying to see if there are patterns to be identified.

[ashersky]

Eevee (2) - Jotheonah, QVist
Jotheonah (2) - Eevee, Axxle
Ashersky (2) - Captain_Frisk, Yuma
Captain_Frisk (2) - Ashersky, TheMunch
Axxle (1) - Voltgloss



I think that's the latest.

[TheMunch]

Ok everyone back the F&@# up, I'm about to do some science!

From Diagram I took all of the 2 scum reads from each:

(player) - (scum/reads)
----------------------
Joth - Ash / Eevee
Eevee - Ash / Joth
Axxle - Ash / Joth
Asher - Axxle / Joth
Volt - Asher / Axle

Volt was one of the more towniest and I have agreed that Volt has been looking pretty towny to me.  So lets go forward with our volt-is-town-cap on.

Conclusions:
1) Neither Ash/Axxle/Joth -OR- Ash/Eevee/Joth are scum trios:
     In both cases, 2 of the scum trio fingered both of their hypothetical scumbuddies which I find highly unlikely.
2) Neither Ash/Axxle/Eevee -OR- Axxle/Joth/Eevee are scum trios:
     Note how in each of these scum trios, the hypothetical scum trio would have all fingered the other hypothetical town.  If this town gets linched (Joth and Ash respectively) and flips town, then we have 3 people who were all sold he was scum.
3)  It is not the case that Ash/Axxle/Eevee/Joth are all town.
     Or at least if they are all town then we are screwed because we have 4 town whose top scum reads are all on other town.

So this leaves us with 1 or 2 scum in this bunch.  I like those odds.  Vote: Ash

[ashersky]

Ok everyone back the F&@# up, I'm about to do some science!

From Diagram I took all of the 2 scum reads from each:

(player) - (scum/reads)
----------------------
Joth - Ash / Eevee
Eevee - Ash / Joth
Axxle - Ash / Joth
Asher - Axxle / Joth
Volt - Asher / Axle

Volt was one of the more towniest and I have agreed that Volt has been looking pretty towny to me.  So lets go forward with our volt-is-town-cap on.

Conclusions:
1) Neither Ash/Axxle/Joth -OR- Ash/Eevee/Joth are scum trios:
     In both cases, 2 of the scum trio fingered both of their hypothetical scumbuddies which I find highly unlikely.
2) Neither Ash/Axxle/Eevee -OR- Axxle/Joth/Eevee are scum trios:
     Note how in each of these scum trios, the hypothetical scum trio would have all fingered the other hypothetical town.  If this town gets linched (Joth and Ash respectively) and flips town, then we have 3 people who were all sold he was scum.
3)  It is not the case that Ash/Axxle/Eevee/Joth are all town.
     Or at least if they are all town then we are screwed because we have 4 town whose top scum reads are all on other town.

So this leaves us with 1 or 2 scum in this bunch.  I like those odds.  Vote: Ash

I feel like this is helpful in some ways, but not in others (plus, it's just info, not analysis).  We start looking at odds and math and start ignoring what people are posting...that hurts town.

And why just the top 2 scum reads?  Why not three?

I'm good with my Frisk vote.  The guy continues to completely get a pass for his town-leading, self-clearing behavior.  And he's doing it with no analysis, just info.

[jotheonah]

vote: ashersky works for me.

[Eevee]

ashersky, as I said I think it's very possible Frisk is mafia. However, it's fairly obvious he isn't going to get lynched today, so if you are town you shouldn't be content keeping your vote on him unless you think you can convince enough people he is the best lynch in a time frame this short. Seems like an ok place to keep your vote on if you are scum though, regardless of Frisk's alignment.

[ashersky]

vote: ashersky works for me.

That's L-1.  I'm VT guys.  I breadcrumbed this here:

CF's lynch my list is a scum gambit for the win, I believe.  He's been trying to lead town in the way he loves as mafia, and he's trying to again.

Eevee's vote was bad town play, I think.  Town v. Town there.

Yuma's survival has not given me a townier read than before, but his posts have stayed consistent throughout.  When we were scum together before, I think he was more meticulous, so I think his posting does gain him some towncred.

I don't like the cases on Eevee, and don't share your opinion on him.  Pretty sure I've been anti-Eevee-lynch all this time.

Vote: Captain_Frisk.

VLA for Thanksgiving.

Also, the lurker lynch thing will continue to discriminate against those of us living outside the majority time zones of everyone else.  I am contributing reads, and votes.  Nothing else I can do in my role here.

And here:

This.

Lurker ash and "man he feels scummy" are the top reasons for voting me.  I can't do much about the first and I don't have an answer to the second, as seen in all games I play.

I have given my own analysis and reasoning for votes, and who I would and wouldn't vote for.  I feel like that has to be helpful to the town.  What else can I provide?

PPE -- I forgot Axxle.  Null read there.

PPE at Eevee.  I'd vote my #2 scumread, but the yuma wagon (suspiciously!) died.  So #3 was Axxle, so Vote: Axxle.  Voltgloss is voting him, and sees the scummy lurker bit clearly, so I feel okay with that.  Definitely better than no lynch.

[Eevee]

Interesting, I still think joth is our best shot, but am sort of leaning towards Axxle over ashersky. Need to mull it over though.

[jotheonah]

Eevee won't hammer his partner. Big surprise. This is the guy who has been lecturing me about FOSsing ash but not voting.

[Eevee]

Eevee won't hammer his partner. Big surprise. This is the guy who has been lecturing me about FOSsing ash but not voting.

So you'd prefer if i hammered him now?

[Eevee]

I do see why you are frustrated at me though 

[TheMunch]

Eevee won't hammer his partner. Big surprise. This is the guy who has been lecturing me about FOSsing ash but not voting.

So you'd prefer if i hammered him now?

Is he right that you wont hammer your scumbuddy?

[yuma]

why breadcrumb VT?

[Eevee]

Eevee won't hammer his partner. Big surprise. This is the guy who has been lecturing me about FOSsing ash but not voting.

So you'd prefer if i hammered him now?

Is he right that you wont hammer your scumbuddy?

When did you stop beating your wife?

I am not scum. I dont yet know if I'll hammer ashersky or not, definitely waiting to see what tomorrow brings at least. I know i'd prefer joth, not sure if ibthink axxle would be better too.

[ashersky]

why breadcrumb VT?

I have been a target for awhile this day, and I was afraid it'd get to this point.  Getting mislynched sucks, and we're not in a position to absorb a mislynch easily, either.  I've had trouble convincing town that I'm town in my all my games, so I figured anything that could help would be worth trying.

[yuma]

why breadcrumb VT?

I have been a target for awhile this day, and I was afraid it'd get to this point.  Getting mislynched sucks, and we're not in a position to absorb a mislynch easily, either.  I've had trouble convincing town that I'm town in my all my games, so I figured anything that could help would be worth trying.

hmmm.... I guess breadcrumbing in general just isn't my favorite because scum can do it just as easily as town. I guess what I am saying is that your breadcrumb doesn't make your claim any more believable than  without it...

So both ash and I are claiming VT. From my understanding of the setup we started with 3 mafia, 1 SK, 3 PRs and 6 VTs. There have already been 2 VTs killed, meaning that if both ash and I are telling the truth there are only 2 VTs.... I don't think it would be a good time for any other VTs to jump out and claim as that would make the 2 PRs easy targets for night kills and to get back into this game we need to lynch scum tonight and have power roles be effective. But it was good for my head to work through the question of whether or not it would be worthwhile for them to claim.

[ashersky]

why breadcrumb VT?

I have been a target for awhile this day, and I was afraid it'd get to this point.  Getting mislynched sucks, and we're not in a position to absorb a mislynch easily, either.  I've had trouble convincing town that I'm town in my all my games, so I figured anything that could help would be worth trying.

hmmm.... I guess breadcrumbing in general just isn't my favorite because scum can do it just as easily as town. I guess what I am saying is that your breadcrumb doesn't make your claim any more believable than  without it...

So both ash and I are claiming VT. From my understanding of the setup we started with 3 mafia, 1 SK, 3 PRs and 6 VTs. There have already been 2 VTs killed, meaning that if both ash and I are telling the truth there are only 2 VTs.... I don't think it would be a good time for any other VTs to jump out and claim as that would make the 2 PRs easy targets for night kills and to get back into this game we need to lynch scum tonight and have power roles be effective. But it was good for my head to work through the question of whether or not it would be worthwhile for them to claim.

Fair point on breadcrumbing.  I thought it couldn't hurt to try, since I haven't been doing so great surviving as town otherwise.

Fully agree with yuma's second point on VTs as well.

[jotheonah]

So Yuma, you believe ash's claim?

[yuma]

So Yuma, you believe ash's claim?

No I don't think I do. That is why I am still voting for him.

[yuma]

well I am out for the night.

I will be on for a few minutes in the morning to unlock MXVI and if I have time I'll post here, but I can't guarantee anything, I was hoping to see more activity tonight, but alas.

[Axxle]

Ash's claim is hilariously believable. Crumbing VT? Who else but Ashersky?!

[Qvist]

Top 1 Mentions
3x CF, jotheonah, Eevee, Axxle

Top 2 Mentions
3x CF, 3x Eevee, 2x yuma, 2x ashersky, jotheonah, Axxle

Top 3 Mentions
4x ashersky, 3x CF, 3x Eevee, 3x Axxle, 2x yuma, 2x jotheonah, TheMunch