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[Voltgloss]

Why am I a suspect if yuma is town? I always said, I think he is town. I mean if yuma is indeed town, No.1 suspect is TheMunch, don't you agree?

A reasonable question.  I thought hard about TheMunch, and whether what we're seeing is scumplay or overeager-townplay.  I just have trouble seeing TheMunch, as scum, going after multiple targets (Eevee PLUS yuma) so hard as he had, especially when his case on Eevee was developed after my case on yuma.  Why wouldn't he just stick to the yuma-case?  Or, stick to the yuma-case while also keeping open the case he was pursuing beforehand (which is what ashersky seems to have done re: Frisk). 

I suspect you, Qvist (if yuma is town), because (1) I can see you, as scum, being worried about ALL the scum being on a town!yuma wagon, especially right after Eevee's admonition to go slow; and (2) I haven't seen well-defined reasons from you to see yuma as town.  Eevee and Axxle have given their reasoning, but you - as far as I recall seeing; correct me if I am wrong - are sticking with an unexplained gut feel. 

Separate issue:  I am suspicious of Eevee's "anyone but yuma" stance.  Eevee, do you have a specific other person to propose as the lynch?

[Eevee]

Qvist, jotheonah or ashersky would be my favourites. Should I reread them to build Volt-esque cases to have people consider it?

[Voltgloss]

Qvist, jotheonah or ashersky would be my favourites. Should I reread them to build Volt-esque cases to have people consider it?

A couple lines would do.  I'm coming to the conclusion that "Volt-esque" cases aren't the best way to play this game, because they create an expectation that can't be kept up in one's (scarce) spare time.

[TheMunch]

I don't like Frisk's alternative lynch. I also think it's noteworthy the initial case against me was Munch's "he is yuma's scumbuddy!!!!".

I mentioned this in my reply to Yuma.  Yes the case did start there and I dont think it was the best place to start.  However, my interrogation of you led to scummy things, which of course you refute, but, I would be comfortable with lynching you instead for more than "you are yuma's scumbuddy".

[Eevee]

I don't like Frisk's alternative lynch. I also think it's noteworthy the initial case against me was Munch's "he is yuma's scumbuddy!!!!".

I mentioned this in my reply to Yuma.  Yes the case did start there and I dont think it was the best place to start.  However, my interrogation of you led to scummy things, which of course you refute, but, I would be comfortable with lynching you instead for more than "you are yuma's scumbuddy".

Do you think it's likely that yuma is town and I'm scum?

[Eevee]

Qvist, jotheonah or ashersky would be my favourites. Should I reread them to build Volt-esque cases to have people consider it?

A couple lines would do.  I'm coming to the conclusion that "Volt-esque" cases aren't the best way to play this game, because they create an expectation that can't be kept up in one's (scarce) spare time.

Remember, some of the guys giving you a hard time might just be mafia.

The reason I suspect Axxle less than the three I listed is a) his lurking was so excessive he must have known he would catch heat for it. b) his rapid short posts felt towny to me. Others are actually mostly just PoE. They haven't done anything to make me think they are down. I have strongish town reads on yuma and Munch, medium town read on Volt and a light town read on Axxle. Ergo, Qvist, ashersky or jotheonah are my preferred lynches. Would really need to reread to explain it better, although Qvist's mystical town read on yuma is something I can sort of resonate with.

Vote: Qvist in fact.


PPE: I realize I completely left off Frisk. He'd be a light town read with Axxle, don't even remember why though. Sorry.

[jotheonah]

I sort of dislike Eevee's web of gut FOSes.

I mean, I get gut reads, sure. But with only one mislynch and a credible evidence-based case, does it make sense to trust them right now? And why is Eevee so desperate to derail the yuma wagon, and yet unable to produce cases on any of his reads? Until I see some evidence otherwise, Occam's Razor seems to point to yuma-Eevee. Right now I'm voting yuma of the two, because if he's right, a town flip will more or less clear Eevee for me.

(No idea who the third partner on that scum team would be. Maybe Axxle?)

[Eevee]

Good town play from me would certainly be to reread all my suspects and try to build a real case. I'm not promising anything too, the task feels daunting. Again, sorry.

[TheMunch]

I don't like Frisk's alternative lynch. I also think it's noteworthy the initial case against me was Munch's "he is yuma's scumbuddy!!!!".

I mentioned this in my reply to Yuma.  Yes the case did start there and I dont think it was the best place to start.  However, my interrogation of you led to scummy things, which of course you refute, but, I would be comfortable with lynching you instead for more than "you are yuma's scumbuddy".

Do you think it's likely that yuma is town and I'm scum?

I think there is evidence to point that either of you are scum independent of the others alignment.

[yuma]

it's a very odd claim. Seems like scum should want to out a PR if they're going down.

BUT, it's such a WIFOM. Maybe he saw how tentative the town is about this lynch and thought a VT claim would be enough to stop the lynch.

funny that you aren't even considering the possibility that I am in fact a VT. A VT claiming VT isn't odd at all. It is very straight forward. It is a possibility isn't it? Unless you are so adamant that I am scum because you have superior knowledge that I am in fact not scum?

[Captain_Frisk]

Good town play from me would certainly be to reread all my suspects and try to build a real case. I'm not promising anything too, the task feels daunting. Again, sorry.

Vote: Eevee

[yuma]

I suspect you, Qvist (if yuma is town), because (1) I can see you, as scum, being worried about ALL the scum being on a town!yuma wagon, especially right after Eevee's admonition to go slow; and (2) I haven't seen well-defined reasons from you to see yuma as town.  Eevee and Axxle have given their reasoning, but you - as far as I recall seeing; correct me if I am wrong - are sticking with an unexplained gut feel. 

I am town, I have a nullish read toward Volt--despite my rudevote on him earlier today--so I feel relatively confident in sheeping this read from Volt. Of all the players not voting for me, Qvist stands out the most. And I really do think that the whole reason I have not been lynched yet is because mafia wanted to keep 1 or 2 off the wagon, expressed town reads on me thinking that another townie would vote for me, but now can't vote for me because it would require them going back on their former read.

vote: Qvist

[Insomniac]

Vote Count 2-6

Qvist (2) - Eevee, yuma
Captain_Frisk (2) - Axxle, QVist
yuma (4) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky
Eevee (1) - Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: November 26 2012, Noon PST

[jotheonah]

it's a very odd claim. Seems like scum should want to out a PR if they're going down.

BUT, it's such a WIFOM. Maybe he saw how tentative the town is about this lynch and thought a VT claim would be enough to stop the lynch.

funny that you aren't even considering the possibility that I am in fact a VT. A VT claiming VT isn't odd at all. It is very straight forward. It is a possibility isn't it? Unless you are so adamant that I am scum because you have superior knowledge that I am in fact not scum?

Of course I'm considering it. It's implied in the first sentence. = Scum wouldn't claim VT, therefore, yuma is town.  But then the second sentence is about how that doesn't work, because you might have been counting on us drawing that conclusion and unvoting you.

Ultimately, the VT claim gives you some town points on balance. But it hardly clears you.

[jotheonah]

Hey Axxle and Qvist, what's the case on Frisk ATM?

[Qvist]

yuma is town because he looks a lot less scummier than all others, not because he did something really townish.
I admit I have no real reason for that, but there are a lot of better targets than him.

TheMunch with his aggressive "lynch yuma" play, ashersky with his L-1 on yuma without real reason and I already said a lot about Eevee and CF. Even jtotheonah plays a little bit too "adaptively" IMO to be townish.
I have no big read on Axxle. But Voltgloss and yuma stay over, so they are town in my opinion.
And yuma claiming VT for me is another hint he's town.

PPE: I realize I completely left off Frisk. He'd be a light town read with Axxle, don't even remember why though. Sorry.

I get critized because I have no real reason to give yuma town creds and Eevee posts this? Come on.
I think more and more that Eevee and CF are Mafia. Although CF's vote for him don't fit...

Hey Axxle and Qvist, what's the case on Frisk ATM?

Sorry, I don't think I understand this question. What do you want to know?

[Captain_Frisk]

He wants to know why you are voting for me

[Qvist]

Again? Didn't I make that clear enough? Read posts #349-#356 and a lot of other posts in between.

[yuma]

yuma (4) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky

Well after a bunch of hoopla, we are back where we were before with 4 on me, 4 off me and me. A nice stalemate...

Today I am willing to lynch ashersky or Qvist. Is it time for a wagon to start forming elsewhere? It appears TheMunch is unlikely to vote elsewhere, what about you other 3?

[ashersky]

yuma (4) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, TheMunch, ashersky

Well after a bunch of hoopla, we are back where we were before with 4 on me, 4 off me and me. A nice stalemate...

Today I am willing to lynch ashersky or Qvist. Is it time for a wagon to start forming elsewhere? It appears TheMunch is unlikely to vote elsewhere, what about you other 3?

I'm willing to lynch Frisk, possibly Munch.

I am not willing to lynch Eevee or VG.

[Captain_Frisk]

Again? Didn't I make that clear enough? Read posts #349-#356 and a lot of other posts in between.

I was just answering you last question in your above megapost

[Axxle]

Hey Axxle and Qvist, what's the case on Frisk ATM?

I didn't like how he pushed Galz's lynch, nor how he's abandoned the yuma wagon.

[TheMunch]

So there are four votes on Yuma and there have been four votes for a while.  Maybe Yuma even will come out from this with his life.  But I really think there has to be a reason why it is so hard to actually follow through and lynch Yuma.  I'm thinking that Yuma is scum with a team that is unwilling to bus/hammer for town cred.  They dont need town cred when town only has 1 mislynch; they need their scum alive to keep town in this precarious position.  I feel this way about Yuma more so and Eevee somewhat as I've seen his name thrown around a bunch as a possible lynch candidate yet still never gaining traction.  In general I feel like lynch should unilaterally be harder to lynch as we have to convince a larger percentage of a smaller amount of players that they are scum and this fits the bill with Yuma and Eevee.

I think a lot of people have gained town reads on me which is going to get me killed tonight (although Ashersky might have just kept me alive by indicating even the smallest desire to lynch me), so I at least wanted to make this statement today.

[TheMunch]

Second thought: Lets pretend for 5 seconds that I am for sure town.  I dont like making the argument "Guys, I'm obvtown" but roll with me.  If I am town (I'm town) and Yuma is town (he's not town) then scum would LOVE to hammer the bejesus out of Yuma, because I would be such an easy target tomorrow and we lose.  So this means that if I am town (I'm town) then Yuma is almost certainly scum.

I guess in this hypothetical, you all watching at home should probably also look at the case where I am scum and Yuma is town.  I'll leave that as an exercise to the reader but I dont think it gets us anywhere other than Yuma is much more towny for me driving to kill him (see the case above).  I would love to hear responses from other players regarding the scenarios if I am scum because I dont think I have those cases nearly fleshed out as well as; I think either no conclusions can be drawn today without some flips or I am completely missing something.  Point is the paragraph above.  If I am town, then yuma is less likely to be town because he would be a great hammer for scum as town... Unless all the scum is already on Yumas wagon but I find that equally unlikely.

[yuma]

Munch: you have completely missed, or chosen to ignore, my theory, and I am willing to bet some serious Goko coin (no, not really, I don't have any Goko coin, but if I did, I would bet it) that this is what is happening. That scum was hoping that enough townies would be willing to lynch me so as to enable them to stay off my lynch wagon for the most part. At this point I don't think that all 3 scum are on my wagon. My bet is that scum expressed a town read on me to gain the necessary cred for tomorrow when I flipped town tomorrow. But in fact not enough townies were willing to vote for me. But the scum not voting for me had already expressed a town read on me and are not willing to go back on that because they will be a prime target tomorrow when I flip town. This is why I am voting Qvist. He seemed to be the most likely to fit this bill because he has provided the weakest reason for why I am town. Actually Frisk fits this bill as well. But his "style" has been more town to me.

From your perspective I don't know if this is more plausible then your "scum isn't willing to bus" theory.

But what I certainly dont' agree with is your assertion of "I am town, therefore yuma must be scum" (paraphrase obviously, but that is what your last post implied.) There is this nice happy world where we are both town, and I think that is the most likely of the four options. I am town, you are likely town. I wish there was someway that I could convince you of it beside getting lynched.