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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 206272 times)

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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #975 on: April 06, 2014, 06:55:19 pm »

I can think of mainly four reasons why scum would not NK yuma.

1. Yuma is scum
2. Scum thinks we will lynch yuma if they let him survive long enough.
3. Scum thought yuma would be doctored.
4. Scum thought it was more importaint to kill Shraeye or Faust.

Plus a couple of more obscure ones, like scum killing yuma, but the kill was then redirected, etc.

Or you know... they feel that my power is best left in the game. Perhaps they feel that they can more strongly influence my decision to use my vig power to benefit them... it would basically be an extra lynch or NK if scum can make sure that it is used on not them. I think that is the most compelling reason for me to stay alive.

After that I would say that number 3 is huge. This is probably the biggest reason scum killed anyone--I disagree with the killing for PR hunting OR killing off people who had scum reads--I think scum killed people who they felt confident wouldn't be protected... hence kills on people that we find unusual actually make perfect sense

Again, I think yuma is more correct here, although xeiron's reasons are sensible.  Depending on how good or bad yuma's reads are, scum could definitely think they could "control" his shot in a way that is advantageous to them.

For example, if yuma has a strong townread on one or more scum, they'd feel pretty good about leaving him around to possibly provide a free town kill.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #976 on: April 06, 2014, 06:57:07 pm »

Actually that's going on the offensive.

So then why do you complain about me saying you are being defensive?  Why not just say "but I'm not defensive, I'm offensive."

Anyway, you decided to start attacking me the moment I mention something about you, when it wasn't needed.  It was a discussion point, but you overreacted and felt it was an attack on you.  That's what scum does.  They overreact to any attention/pressure/cases and become defensive/go on the offensive.

OMGUS is an exagerrated thing that's become a big joke, but it's based on this actual scumtell.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #977 on: April 06, 2014, 06:58:13 pm »

I am also getting increasingly uneasy about yuma. I do not like the effort he put in last day to stop a lynch.

This is blatantly false. Yes I tried to stop a lynch on two towns, both of which ended up being correct and I think ultimately pretty obvious. But before that I tried to work my tail off to get a lynch elsewhere, but was thwarted by scum and misguided town

Which two towns?  Sudgy and...?  Unless you have a result or something to share on Andrew, he's yet to be confirmed as town.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #978 on: April 06, 2014, 07:01:27 pm »

No I voted for you after I posted how I found Jimm suspicious for his questions and after Arch posted huh ow he found you suspicious for yours. Whether or not you were talking about me made no difference. I was mocking your reason because we argued about my defensiveness all D1 and here we are again.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #979 on: April 06, 2014, 07:07:12 pm »

I found you towny D1 but you're just the opposite now. The way you're flailing trying to find anything at all to say I'm scummy even if there's nothing there, stretching the truth by saying I was reacting defensively to your posts by voting you... this only confirms why I'm alive. Because scum knows they can continue to push for my mislynch this way.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #980 on: April 06, 2014, 07:16:42 pm »

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?
Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #981 on: April 06, 2014, 07:17:33 pm »

Maybe, maybe not. I didn't consider the possibility of a third party though so that line of thinking is moot.

You didn't consider the possibility of a third party when?  Now?  Last night?  It's in the OP that it's possible.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #982 on: April 06, 2014, 07:17:49 pm »

Just a heads up, I start my job tomorrow, so my activity will probably be dropping.

Congrats on the job!
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #983 on: April 06, 2014, 07:19:08 pm »

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?
Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.

Unless they're brazen.. or they plan to use this as a defense in case they ever have to.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #984 on: April 06, 2014, 07:19:51 pm »

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?
Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

What? This is so strange.

You are simultaneously assuming Andrew is 100% town, but then voting Ash because he wants to maintain the possibility of Andrew being scum? I don't get how you can do both of those things.
s to
From scum!ash's position, he knows Andrew is Town. He tries to push that mislynch, but fails. Nking him will prove that ash was scum trying to push the mislynch. So he leaves him alive hoping to get him lynched today thinking "not everyone thought he was Town". Obviously he hasn't yet, but I will point everyone to this argument if he does.

Really?  "NKing him will prove that ash is scum."  In what universe, man?  By that logic, anyone who pushed the sudgy mislynch is scum because look, sudgy flipped town.

It was pretty clear near the end of D1 following Andrew's claim that everyone believed him.  The only way we are correctly lynch him is if he gives himself away (again) and someone catches on.  I'm waiting to see if yuma's still 100% convinced Andrew's an IC, like he was on D1.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #985 on: April 06, 2014, 07:20:21 pm »

Maybe, maybe not. I didn't consider the possibility of a third party though so that line of thinking is moot.

You didn't consider the possibility of a third party when?  Now?  Last night?  It's in the OP that it's possible.

When I made that post.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #986 on: April 06, 2014, 07:21:41 pm »

I was expecting yuma to be targeted for a NK and maybe doctored but I guess with two NKs he probably wasn't even targeted?  Or is there a good reason scum wouldn't target yuma for a NKS?

Okay I'm an idiot.  I thought when you said "wasn't even targeted" you meant wasn't targeted in any way, not even by the doctor.  Then I was confused because you had doctor.  But I think you just meant wasn't targeted for a night kill.

Yeah, but my post was still pointless.

I've been on the road for a few days playing physically exhausting music with very little sleep, so I apologize if I don't make sense sometimes. I think I was saying I was surprised yuma wasn't targeted for a NK and that since there were two NKs, I guess that means there's a third party. So yeah, nothing of importance and I suck. End.

Why did you post a pointless post?  And then why did you point out it was pointless?

You said what you said because yuma being alive, or others dying, or something triggered a reaction.  Why that happened in unclear.  It could be that you believed doctoring yuma would result in no deaths last night.  It could be that you tried to kill yuma last night and were surprised he lived.  But it means something, so you can't get us to stop thinking about it with a post like this.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #987 on: April 06, 2014, 07:23:28 pm »

I reread the last few pages leading up to sudgy's lynch.

Two things I noticed:
TA being flip-floppity during the lynch. He REALLY wants to see someone lynched...but doesn't mind a no lynch. At first blush, this seemed pretty scummy. But as I continued reading, I became more convinced that it wasn't. His top 2 scumreads were up for a lynch, and didn't mind either one dying, which I can understand. He mentions that a no lynch wouldn't be bad, but explains that a no lynch for a RMM game isn't too bad. It's easy for scum to make that argument, but the honesty reminds me of Teproc in the first Battle School Blitz. So, light townread from that.

I guess it's time for me to claim? I'm a split jailkeeper.

A what?

Yeah what's a split jailkeeper?
Why does it matter?

This is my reaction as well. Why would it matter what the role does? ash claims its for credibility, but if people are going to disbelieve his claim, then why does he need to claim it in the first place? Scum wants to know what the power is to determine if it is a threat or not.

So this gives me a scumread on ashersky and Jimmmmm. Moreso on ashersky for asking in the first place and the semi-innocent way he asked it. Combined with Andrew being alive, gives me a pretty strong scumread on ash and makes me comfortable with my vote.

I think it was a valid thing to flesh out at the time and so I disagree with you.  Scum can claim stuff.  You have to do some due diligence to figure out if someone's lying.

If someone said "I'm the Cryptkeeping Jingle Jangle!  Don't lynch me!" are you going to go, "hey, that sounds important, let's not lynch him!"?  Or maybe you might want to know what a Jingle Jangle is.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #988 on: April 06, 2014, 07:24:59 pm »

No I voted for you after I posted how I found Jimm suspicious for his questions and after Arch posted huh ow he found you suspicious for yours. Whether or not you were talking about me made no difference. I was mocking your reason because we argued about my defensiveness all D1 and here we are again.

So your thought process was:

1)  Hey, Jimmmmm seems suspicious!  Let me tell people about it!
2)  Hey, Arch made a post about ashersky!
3)  Hey, I'll just vote for ashersky even though I just told people about how someone else is suspicious!

I don't follow.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #989 on: April 06, 2014, 07:26:12 pm »

Why would me being alive incriminate ash?
Well ash would want to leave you alive so that he seems more right about you being scum. If he were to kill you and you flip Town, it would point to him pushing hardcore on you.

In my head that sounded so much more convincing. I'll leave my vote though.

Oh, here's the "reason."  Yeah, not convinced this makes any sense.  If I was worried that Andrew flipping town "would point to [me] pushing hardcore" on him on D1, why would I have pushed for his (mis)lynch on D1?  Scum can't fear things like this or they'd never get anyone killed.

Unless they're brazen.. or they plan to use this as a defense in case they ever have to.

I feel like you've maybe never rolled scum before.  This is probably a townslip.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #990 on: April 06, 2014, 07:31:14 pm »

I was expecting yuma to be targeted for a NK and maybe doctored but I guess with two NKs he probably wasn't even targeted?  Or is there a good reason scum wouldn't target yuma for a NKS?

Okay I'm an idiot.  I thought when you said "wasn't even targeted" you meant wasn't targeted in any way, not even by the doctor.  Then I was confused because you had doctor.  But I think you just meant wasn't targeted for a night kill.

Yeah, but my post was still pointless.

I've been on the road for a few days playing physically exhausting music with very little sleep, so I apologize if I don't make sense sometimes. I think I was saying I was surprised yuma wasn't targeted for a NK and that since there were two NKs, I guess that means there's a third party. So yeah, nothing of importance and I suck. End.

Why did you post a pointless post?  And then why did you point out it was pointless?

You said what you said because yuma being alive, or others dying, or something triggered a reaction.  Why that happened in unclear.  It could be that you believed doctoring yuma would result in no deaths last night.  It could be that you tried to kill yuma last night and were surprised he lived.  But it means something, so you can't get us to stop thinking about it with a post like this.

Well the only ones who claimed if I remember correctly were me and yuma so I figured scum would lynch a vig over me so I was surprised when shraeye and faust were killed and yuma wasnt. That's about as far as that post goes. I know it's a dumb post, that's why I said it's pointless.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #991 on: April 06, 2014, 07:38:28 pm »

I was expecting yuma to be targeted for a NK and maybe doctored but I guess with two NKs he probably wasn't even targeted?  Or is there a good reason scum wouldn't target yuma for a NKS?

Okay I'm an idiot.  I thought when you said "wasn't even targeted" you meant wasn't targeted in any way, not even by the doctor.  Then I was confused because you had doctor.  But I think you just meant wasn't targeted for a night kill.

Yeah, but my post was still pointless.

I've been on the road for a few days playing physically exhausting music with very little sleep, so I apologize if I don't make sense sometimes. I think I was saying I was surprised yuma wasn't targeted for a NK and that since there were two NKs, I guess that means there's a third party. So yeah, nothing of importance and I suck. End.

Why did you post a pointless post?  And then why did you point out it was pointless?

You said what you said because yuma being alive, or others dying, or something triggered a reaction.  Why that happened in unclear.  It could be that you believed doctoring yuma would result in no deaths last night.  It could be that you tried to kill yuma last night and were surprised he lived.  But it means something, so you can't get us to stop thinking about it with a post like this.

Well the only ones who claimed if I remember correctly were me and yuma so I figured scum would lynch a vig over me so I was surprised when shraeye and faust were killed and yuma wasnt. That's about as far as that post goes. I know it's a dumb post, that's why I said it's pointless.

But.. arghh!  If you thought Yuma was the most likely to be lynched why wouldn't you use your doctor ability on him?  And if you did use your doctor ability, why would you be surprised when he wasn't killed? 
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #992 on: April 06, 2014, 07:41:41 pm »

No I voted for you after I posted how I found Jimm suspicious for his questions and after Arch posted huh ow he found you suspicious for yours. Whether or not you were talking about me made no difference. I was mocking your reason because we argued about my defensiveness all D1 and here we are again.

So your thought process was:

1)  Hey, Jimmmmm seems suspicious!  Let me tell people about it!
2)  Hey, Arch made a post about ashersky!
3)  Hey, I'll just vote for ashersky even though I just told people about how someone else is suspicious!

I don't follow.

Posts like these are so inaccurate and misleading, this is why I was frustrated D1. I would explain things, people would misquote or misconstrue things I've said, I'd explain things again and I'd be frustrated because of it, and everyone would accuse me of overreacting. Do I seriously have to explain this again? And really it doesn't matter what you think of my thought process. I think you're scum. I explained my reasons for thinking you're scum. I don't have anything to prove to you about my vote. On the contrary, you should be trying to convince me why I shouldn't vote for you. And posts like this aren't helping you.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #993 on: April 06, 2014, 07:44:06 pm »

I was expecting yuma to be targeted for a NK and maybe doctored but I guess with two NKs he probably wasn't even targeted?  Or is there a good reason scum wouldn't target yuma for a NKS?

Okay I'm an idiot.  I thought when you said "wasn't even targeted" you meant wasn't targeted in any way, not even by the doctor.  Then I was confused because you had doctor.  But I think you just meant wasn't targeted for a night kill.

Yeah, but my post was still pointless.

I've been on the road for a few days playing physically exhausting music with very little sleep, so I apologize if I don't make sense sometimes. I think I was saying I was surprised yuma wasn't targeted for a NK and that since there were two NKs, I guess that means there's a third party. So yeah, nothing of importance and I suck. End.

Why did you post a pointless post?  And then why did you point out it was pointless?

You said what you said because yuma being alive, or others dying, or something triggered a reaction.  Why that happened in unclear.  It could be that you believed doctoring yuma would result in no deaths last night.  It could be that you tried to kill yuma last night and were surprised he lived.  But it means something, so you can't get us to stop thinking about it with a post like this.

Well the only ones who claimed if I remember correctly were me and yuma so I figured scum would lynch a vig over me so I was surprised when shraeye and faust were killed and yuma wasnt. That's about as far as that post goes. I know it's a dumb post, that's why I said it's pointless.

But.. arghh!  If you thought Yuma was the most likely to be lynched why wouldn't you use your doctor ability on him?  And if you did use your doctor ability, why would you be surprised when he wasn't killed?

Another townslip here.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #994 on: April 06, 2014, 07:45:05 pm »

No I voted for you after I posted how I found Jimm suspicious for his questions and after Arch posted huh ow he found you suspicious for yours. Whether or not you were talking about me made no difference. I was mocking your reason because we argued about my defensiveness all D1 and here we are again.

So your thought process was:

1)  Hey, Jimmmmm seems suspicious!  Let me tell people about it!
2)  Hey, Arch made a post about ashersky!
3)  Hey, I'll just vote for ashersky even though I just told people about how someone else is suspicious!

I don't follow.

Posts like these are so inaccurate and misleading, this is why I was frustrated D1. I would explain things, people would misquote or misconstrue things I've said, I'd explain things again and I'd be frustrated because of it, and everyone would accuse me of overreacting. Do I seriously have to explain this again? And really it doesn't matter what you think of my thought process. I think you're scum. I explained my reasons for thinking you're scum. I don't have anything to prove to you about my vote. On the contrary, you should be trying to convince me why I shouldn't vote for you. And posts like this aren't helping you.

You are still thinking like scum thinks, and that's your problem.  If you aren't scum, why think this way?  This is why I'm so confident about you.  If shraeye was here, he'd back me up on this.  This is like caught raerae on D1 of Adventure Time.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #995 on: April 06, 2014, 07:45:17 pm »

I'm still confused why Andrew living has any bearing on my alignment.

I'm pretty sure one of the strongest ever claimed town PRs in the history of f.ds surviving when presumably he can't self doctor AND two other people died is a strong argument that ANDREW is scum, and that my original read was right.

His doc/block claim could just as easily be a scum Roleblocker cover.

I disagree. Twofold reasons...
1. he was a mislynch option yesterday, that isn't going to just magically go away. Scum want to leave alive mislynch options if at all possible
2. I still contend that scum is going to kill people who they think the least likely to be protected or watched or whatever in this situation... I would put Andrew pretty high on the list of "likely to be protected or watched" and thus a bad kill for today, especially in RMM where everyone is going to have a role of some sort. If I were a protective role or a watcher I think Andrew would have been high on my list

and yes I realize that my reasons above somewhat contradict, but that just amplifies the problem that scum has with killing him, lots of WIFOM. Scum doesn't want to mess around with WIFOM for their night kills... they want to make sure they go through and that they don't get caught doing it!

And we don't even know what roles mafia has, maybe they just bussed andrew or something akin to that.

Regardless he is still a top townread and we shouldn't be lynching him today.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #996 on: April 06, 2014, 07:50:28 pm »

I am also getting increasingly uneasy about yuma. I do not like the effort he put in last day to stop a lynch.

This is blatantly false. Yes I tried to stop a lynch on two towns, both of which ended up being correct and I think ultimately pretty obvious. But before that I tried to work my tail off to get a lynch elsewhere, but was thwarted by scum and misguided town

Which two towns?  Sudgy and...?  Unless you have a result or something to share on Andrew, he's yet to be confirmed as town.

Sorry, that was typed in a rush and incorrectly... should probably read "lynch on two townie reads, both of which ended up being correct (at least one confirmed and the other very likely given his claim)...

So yeah, Andrew isn't an IC. Just a very strong townread
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #997 on: April 06, 2014, 07:50:42 pm »

Ok ash.

My phone is about to die so I'm turning it off. I'll be back later once I plug it in.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #998 on: April 06, 2014, 07:53:24 pm »

I'm still confused why Andrew living has any bearing on my alignment.

I'm pretty sure one of the strongest ever claimed town PRs in the history of f.ds surviving when presumably he can't self doctor AND two other people died is a strong argument that ANDREW is scum, and that my original read was right.

His doc/block claim could just as easily be a scum Roleblocker cover.

I disagree. Twofold reasons...
1. he was a mislynch option yesterday, that isn't going to just magically go away. Scum want to leave alive mislynch options if at all possible
2. I still contend that scum is going to kill people who they think the least likely to be protected or watched or whatever in this situation... I would put Andrew pretty high on the list of "likely to be protected or watched" and thus a bad kill for today, especially in RMM where everyone is going to have a role of some sort. If I were a protective role or a watcher I think Andrew would have been high on my list

and yes I realize that my reasons above somewhat contradict, but that just amplifies the problem that scum has with killing him, lots of WIFOM. Scum doesn't want to mess around with WIFOM for their night kills... they want to make sure they go through and that they don't get caught doing it!

And we don't even know what roles mafia has, maybe they just bussed andrew or something akin to that.

Regardless he is still a top townread and we shouldn't be lynching him today.

The reason I disagree with your assessment is that, if Andrew is telling the truth, he's already admitted to being the doctor.  Unless you think there are multiple doctors (which is of course possible in RMM, but I'd assume they'd be looking for variety in the setup), Andrew wasn't likely to be protected because he can't protect himself.  Sure, he could have been the watched, I guess, if that exists (looks like Faust was a variant).

Do you really see him as a mislynch candidate (before today, I mean)?  He was in pretty great shape at the end of D1.  Strong claim, his most vocal opposition (me, TA) backing down, and he got a sudgy mislynch through.  Why would we suddenly return to him as a lynch candidate again?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #999 on: April 06, 2014, 07:53:41 pm »

I am also getting increasingly uneasy about yuma. I do not like the effort he put in last day to stop a lynch.

This is blatantly false. Yes I tried to stop a lynch on two towns, both of which ended up being correct and I think ultimately pretty obvious. But before that I tried to work my tail off to get a lynch elsewhere, but was thwarted by scum and misguided town

Which two towns?  Sudgy and...?  Unless you have a result or something to share on Andrew, he's yet to be confirmed as town.

Sorry, that was typed in a rush and incorrectly... should probably read "lynch on two townie reads, both of which ended up being correct (at least one confirmed and the other very likely given his claim)...

So yeah, Andrew isn't an IC. Just a very strong townread

Okay.
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