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[ashersky]

But do you think it's unreasonable / unlikely for town to come in assuming 3 mafia? We are not debating whether its "correct" or not, but whether its a likely assumption for someone to make without knowledge of the scum team. I know I made that assumption.

Unlikely?  I mean maybe not?  People make assumptions, so that's something one could assume.

I firmly believe it is a dangerous assumption to make and you are hurting town if you play the game with that assumption.  And you definitely shouldn't be making posts about it.

PPE: 13 posts.  I didn't get to hit post and got called away.  Will read now.
Are you trying to defend Andrew here?  I mean, I get that you don't really like the scumslip argument (many don't), but you have said his reaction has been scummy.

[yuma]

ash you have to make some amount of assumptions... that is how people live their lives. Otherwise we would have to react anew to every single situation that we find ourselves regardless of whether or not we have been in a similar place. It is one of the benefits of having an advanced brain. Humans use previous experiences to make assumptions. What is bad is when people use those assumptions and hold onto them in the face of directly disagreeing data.... which is exactly what you are doing to Andrew and ADK if you ask me.

I see nothing wrong with going into a game thinking 3 mafia is in this game. But as the game progresses be willing to mold that opinion and not do anything stupid in the process!

[ashersky]

yuma's posts are reading scummy, but his claim is basically conf!town until he's not conf!town.

Occam's Razor means the most likely thing to be true is probably true.  (I think, right?  I mean, if I'm wrong on that, then obviously I'm using the phrase incorrectly.)

So you run the scenarios of why Andrew says there are exactly 3 scum, and states that with a veracity that belies absolute knowledge.  Here are possibilities:

--Andrew is scum, so he knows there are three of them.
--Andrew has a power role that told him on Night 0 how many scum there are.
--Andrew is a townie who made a mistake that requires he have an absolute conviction that there are 3 scum when he has no reason to believe that.

Am I missing anything?  Please bring them up if there are more likely scenarios.  But, based on likely scenarios, Occam's Razor says the most likely is true, and the most likely is Andrew is scum.

I've admitted to being less correct about ADK's statement, especially given how he qualified it with his parentheticals.

[ashersky]

ash you have to make some amount of assumptions... that is how people live their lives. Otherwise we would have to react anew to every single situation that we find ourselves regardless of whether or not we have been in a similar place. It is one of the benefits of having an advanced brain. Humans use previous experiences to make assumptions. What is bad is when people use those assumptions and hold onto them in the face of directly disagreeing data.... which is exactly what you are doing to Andrew and ADK if you ask me.

I see nothing wrong with going into a game thinking 3 mafia is in this game. But as the game progresses be willing to mold that opinion and not do anything stupid in the process!

This is false, and it kills us often.

How many people have entered games with me assuming I'm scum because I've been successful as scum in previous games.  I mean, ADK admitted to having a bias against me due to Super Mario Mafia, even though the games are completely separate and a previous game has no bearing on my alignment in this one.  But he's stated his bias, and he's letting that affect his play.  That assumption that I'm likely scum based on previous experience is wrong and should not be accepted.

Just because previous games have had 3 scum does not mean this game has 3 scum.  How is that even an assumption that makes sense.

A plane crashed yesterday, so I assume a plane will crash today.  That's the same, and it's just as ridiculous.

[yuma]

yuma's posts are reading scummy, but his claim is basically conf!town until he's not conf!town.

Occam's Razor means the most likely thing to be true is probably true.  (I think, right?  I mean, if I'm wrong on that, then obviously I'm using the phrase incorrectly.)

So you run the scenarios of why Andrew says there are exactly 3 scum, and states that with a veracity that belies absolute knowledge.  Here are possibilities:

--Andrew is scum, so he knows there are three of them.
--Andrew has a power role that told him on Night 0 how many scum there are.
--Andrew is a townie who made a mistake that requires he have an absolute conviction that there are 3 scum when he has no reason to believe that.

Am I missing anything?  Please bring them up if there are more likely scenarios.  But, based on likely scenarios, Occam's Razor says the most likely is true, and the most likely is Andrew is scum.

I've admitted to being less correct about ADK's statement, especially given how he qualified it with his parentheticals.

Occam's Razor is making the least amount of assumptions, which is basically what you are stating here so I won't argue that point.

The point that I am going to argue is that in a game like this you can manipulate the number of assumptions to make one look longer and thus less likely, which is what I think you did above.

See I could put it this way:

--Andrew is scum, so he knows there are three of them and assume that he didn't have anyone to tell him not to say this in the thread and had to have rolled mafia 3/13... (see I just did the same thing!)
--not even going to go down that road cause it is the most unlikely....
--Andrew is a townie who roled town 10?/13 who made a mistake given his prior information of previous games

[ashersky]

If you don't think it was a scumslip, fine.  To me, it looks like you are arguing it's a townslip.

Do you think this mistake makes him most likely town, making him a RobzIC and off the lynch table?  Because that just seems as ridiculous as you are making me out to be for finding him obv!scum.

[Twistedarcher]

I think him saying there's 3 scum says pretty much nothing about his alignment.

Occam's razor refers to simplicity, not likelihood, I believe.

[ashersky]

I think him saying there's 3 scum says pretty much nothing about his alignment.

Occam's razor refers to simplicity, not likelihood, I believe.

I disagree.  I think it has to say something about his alignment, either that he absolutely scum or absolutely town.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Just because previous games have had 3 scum does not mean this game has 3 scum.  How is that even an assumption that makes sense.

A plane crashed yesterday, so I assume a plane will crash today.  That's the same, and it's just as ridiculous.

Not the same at all actually. Because ALL previous big games I have seen have had 3 scum made it a pretty safe assumption to me that this one would have 3 also. I don't know the exact statistic but maybe 99% of planes don't crash, so I would absolutely not assume one would crash today. I don't know why you think I would.

[AndrewisFTTW]

So ash thinks I'm scum and he's not going to be swayed. Fine. I don't think we need to spend pages discussing theory and the power of assumptions.

[AndrewisFTTW]

I guess shraeye thinks I'm scum too? At least he voted for me. What do you think shraeye?

[yuma]

This is false, and it kills us often.

How many people have entered games with me assuming I'm scum because I've been successful as scum in previous games.  I mean, ADK admitted to having a bias against me due to Super Mario Mafia, even though the games are completely separate and a previous game has no bearing on my alignment in this one.  But he's stated his bias, and he's letting that affect his play.  That assumption that I'm likely scum based on previous experience is wrong and should not be accepted.

I'll agree, but you are using an example that is completely different from the one I gave. You can't even compare the two because one is made out of nothing, (bias) the other is based off data. An apt comparison would be (if this were true): assume that when ash points out scumslips he is more likely to be scum until seeing further data that indicates he isn't.

Just because previous games have had 3 scum does not mean this game has 3 scum.  How is that even an assumption that makes sense.

It makes perfect sense if you know that in most situations a game with 2 scum or 4 scum is going to be difficult to balance and as of yet we have had no indications that there are 2 scum teams. If we see evidence that points otherwise you can adjust your assumption. Are you telling me you go into a game thinking "there could be 0 to 13 scum?" Because somewhere ash you are making assumptions. Apparently mine and ADK's or Andrew's is a bit more narrow than yours but doens' tmake them any less valid, especially as ADK and Andrew are newer and more likely to not think about alternative scum amounts

A plane crashed yesterday, so I assume a plane will crash today.  That's the same, and it's just as ridiculous.

Now you are just being obtuse. The apt comparison here is: X amount of planes take off each year, Y amount crash. Since Y is such a small amount I will assume that this plane isn't going to crash.

But I am done with this conversation since you are obviously going to just call my points bad and scummy... also remember I have a dayvig and I just might get sick and tired of you and dayvig you.  Yes that is a threat.

[yuma]

I think him saying there's 3 scum says pretty much nothing about his alignment.

Occam's razor refers to simplicity, not likelihood, I believe.

I disagree.  I think it has to say something about his alignment, either that he absolutely scum or absolutely town.

WHAT!?!?!? Why?

I have already said that this data point isn't enough to lynch someone off! If more assembles then maybe. But this alone isn't worth it at all. I don't make lynch decisions of isolated instances that may or may not be scummy.

[yuma]

I guess I should add that I am being extremely facetious with the dayvig threat... it came off less jokey than I intended...

[yuma]

So ash thinks I'm scum and he's not going to be swayed. Fine. I don't think we need to spend pages discussing theory and the power of assumptions.

Fair enough, but if he keeps pushing the issue without further evidence I am going to push back because I think it is a mistake to go down that road. And ashersky can be very convincing when he wants to be, so I see it is my job to counter that convincingness to make sure town doesn't end up in a worse situation.

[AndrewisFTTW]

...

Is there something wrong with getting defensive?

Getting defensive is not wrong, but it is something some persons do as scum.
On the same line, asking question is something both scum and town could do.

But since scum do have incentive to keep as many people as possible in the lynch pool, I found it was worth to keep an eye on jimm. By voting I draw attention, so that others can also keep an eye on jimm.

...

Vote: xeiron

Jimmmm was just asking a question (which my answer to is: no. I think it's very likely Yuma is Town). I think xeiron's vote was him jumping to conclusions too quickly.

I am not concluding anything. I am drawing attention to somthing I think is worth noticing.

Oh and please quote the entire conversation. Going back and trying to find the rest of it or trying to make sense of half of a conversation is really annoying.

And I'm still not liking you questioning Jim's defensiveness. Why not follow up with something that encourages more conversation instead of "drawing attention" as you like to say to Jim giving a reasonable rebuttal to your remark?

Just a really weird post all around.

[ashersky]

Just because previous games have had 3 scum does not mean this game has 3 scum.  How is that even an assumption that makes sense.

A plane crashed yesterday, so I assume a plane will crash today.  That's the same, and it's just as ridiculous.

Not the same at all actually. Because ALL previous big games I have seen have had 3 scum made it a pretty safe assumption to me that this one would have 3 also. I don't know the exact statistic but maybe 99% of planes don't crash, so I would absolutely not assume one would crash today. I don't know why you think I would.

Really?  ALL previous big games have had 3 scum.

13 players, 4 scum: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9601.0
21 players, 5 scum + SK: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9308.0 (this is a great example, as it was closed)
16 players, 4 scum: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7019.0 (another closed)
13 players, 4 scum (2 teams): http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=6894.0
15 players, 6 scum (2 teams): http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=6314.0
16 players, 6 scum (2 teams): http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=6168.0
16 players, 5 scum (2 teams) + SK: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3907.0

And that's just regular games.  We're playing RMM, which has more variety.

[ashersky]

So ash thinks I'm scum and he's not going to be swayed. Fine. I don't think we need to spend pages discussing theory and the power of assumptions.

Fair enough, but if he keeps pushing the issue without further evidence I am going to push back because I think it is a mistake to go down that road. And ashersky can be very convincing when he wants to be, so I see it is my job to counter that convincingness to make sure town doesn't end up in a worse situation.

You may disagree, but by disputing my point, you are making a pro-town argument on Andrew's behalf, even if you don't mean to.

I am trying to be helpful and pointing out other scummy statements he makes, at least.  Can you point to his towniness?  If you think he's likely made a town mistake instead of a scum slip, there ought to be reasons for that.

[AndrewisFTTW]

I didn't say all previous big games, I said all big games that I have seen; which, granted, is not a lot. But thank you for bringing this to my attention.

[yuma]

Just because previous games have had 3 scum does not mean this game has 3 scum.  How is that even an assumption that makes sense.

A plane crashed yesterday, so I assume a plane will crash today.  That's the same, and it's just as ridiculous.

Not the same at all actually. Because ALL previous big games I have seen have had 3 scum made it a pretty safe assumption to me that this one would have 3 also. I don't know the exact statistic but maybe 99% of planes don't crash, so I would absolutely not assume one would crash today. I don't know why you think I would.

Really?  ALL previous big games have had 3 scum.

All "big" games where Andrew has been around have had 3 scum. Why do you expect him to have an encyclopedic knowledge of f.ds setup history?

[yuma]

So ash thinks I'm scum and he's not going to be swayed. Fine. I don't think we need to spend pages discussing theory and the power of assumptions.

Fair enough, but if he keeps pushing the issue without further evidence I am going to push back because I think it is a mistake to go down that road. And ashersky can be very convincing when he wants to be, so I see it is my job to counter that convincingness to make sure town doesn't end up in a worse situation.

You may disagree, but by disputing my point, you are making a pro-town argument on Andrew's behalf, even if you don't mean to.

I am trying to be helpful and pointing out other scummy statements he makes, at least.  Can you point to his towniness?  If you think he's likely made a town mistake instead of a scum slip, there ought to be reasons for that.

I am not interested in going around finding "townie" statements from him.

Ash go take a walk. You are driving me nuts.

[ashersky]

I didn't say all previous big games, I said all big games that I have seen; which, granted, is not a lot. But thank you for bringing this to my attention.

It's absolutely worth skimming a few of them, if only to see the setups mods have created.  Do the same for RMM games.  The variety mods have come up with is pretty fantastic, and it helps temper your assumptions in this and future games.

[Twistedarcher]

All previous 13 player games with only one scum team have had 3 scum. But ash you are arguing over whether the assumption is correct, not if its reasonable. You are the only person who has said it's not. You have at least 4 people saying it is. All 4 of those people can't be scum therefore it's reasonably likely for town to have that assumption, therefore Andrew isn't necessarily scum.

[Twistedarcher]

See what I did there? By saying all 4 of those people can't be scum, I assumed a 3 person scum team. Lynch me next!

[mail-mi]

Vote Count 1.3:

Jimmmm (1): xeiron
sudgy (1): Jimmmmm
faust (1): XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (2): faust, sudgy
xeiron (1): Archetype,
AndrewisFTTW (3): ashersky, shraeye, Twistedarcher
ashersky (1):  A Drowned Kernel

Not voting (3): yuma, Witherweaver, AndrewisFTTW

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch..

Day 1 ends April 3 at 8 PM forum time (I won't be home at that time, but that no votes will be accepted after that time.)