Voltaire, if you're so sure that e is town, what would you really gain by determining that he and I aren't pulling the wool over your eyes? Those statements seem kind of incongruous to me.
If we no lynch today, I have a 1/5 chance of blocking the kill, assuming they don't still have a strongman. We enter into the next game phase with a guaranteed lynch, assuming you believe me. Is scum allowed to not shoot I wonder? Just thought of that, they could do that to falsely increase my confidence of success I guess. But that seems like a longshot. Anyway, then plus I would be able to attempt to block again from an even smaller pool.
If I don't block it, we end up in a very dangerous situation. Probably 2 scum among 5, 1 townie misvotes and game over.
If we do lynch today, then first of all we (probably) have a 2/6 chance of hitting scum today. Either way, I have a 1/4 chance of blocking the kill. Then we would get a near-guaranteed lynch for the next day, I guess, as with above. If we do miss on the lynch, I have to block the kill, or we lose. So I guess that's a 50-50 on the game right now. Yikes. But is that much better than our odds going into the future if we no lynch? I think it might be worth it.
Here's another thing: what we ostensibly gain from a no lynch is that me and e aren't being wool-pullers right now. But do we really gain that? I could see scum pulling the following cute ploy: kill someone other than e or me tonight, which implicates one of us for a lynch...we get mislynched and lose. So maybe we don't gain anything but a barrel of WIFOM. Now I can only speak for myself of course, and I hope my corroboration with Jimmmmm for example is good evidence that I am telling the truth. And you seem quite confident about e. So that might be a risk we need to take.
I apologize for this scattered and possibly spurious reasoning, I just woke up and I'm on my phone. This post was supposed to be more meticulous and go through all the possibilities, but there are quite a few to consider. Maybe I just don't like no lynches because they seem boring. Out with a bang rather than a whimper at least!
I am also starting to think that maybe mcmc is feeling too easy of a lynch to be scum at this point. I will vote: manda. If anyone has been trying to innocuously lurk along in the background, it's her, and it seems like she'll just sort of go along with an mcmc lynch or whatever, which worries me. And she's basically been avoiding hard scrutiny this whole time. I'll have to do a reread later.