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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 169349 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1150 on: December 12, 2013, 05:39:32 am »

I'm not sure Goon Cop is such a terrible fake claim. It has a chance of outing the actual Goon Cop, which may or may not be very desireable (depending on what mafia chose) and there's the possibility of a scum v scum ploy. I don't really believe that but I guess it's possible. Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird to me in many ways, which is why I'm interested as to his reasoning for claiming now.

Well yes, that's all possible, but even if his were he case, our best way to proceed is lynching ashersky, right? Then we can think about whether Jimmmmm is scum tomorrow.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1151 on: December 12, 2013, 05:39:54 am »

ash, why Roleblock me?

You've been off this game.  I had a read on you D1.  You were either scum, or doing a Robz trying to draw the NK as a VT.


Why cop me?

Jimmmmm definitely was very acive and under suspicion D1. BUT - doesn't this make im a bad RB target? Even if he was scum, wouldn't he let his partner who was more under the radar do the NK?

I don't know their thinking.  Clearly Jimmmm didn't do the kill.

Roleblocker is a hard role, I think, because you DON'T want to block town PRs, so there's negative utility.   In the end, I went with the scum read that I thought was playing the most sly, if that makes sense.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1152 on: December 12, 2013, 05:40:54 am »

I'm not sure Goon Cop is such a terrible fake claim. It has a chance of outing the actual Goon Cop, which may or may not be very desireable (depending on what mafia chose) and there's the possibility of a scum v scum ploy. I don't really believe that but I guess it's possible. Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird to me in many ways, which is why I'm interested as to his reasoning for claiming now.

Well yes, that's all possible, but even if his were he case, our best way to proceed is lynching ashersky, right? Then we can think about whether Jimmmmm is scum tomorrow.

Unless we're partners that planned this.  (spoiler alert: we're not.)  Then he sails off into the sunset.

If you haven't read LOTR1, I highly recommend it.  That scum!Jimmmmm is resurrected here.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1153 on: December 12, 2013, 05:42:10 am »

Now I'm actually perfectly fine with not lynching ash Today and trying to find his partners instead, for a few reasons:
-ash is a Goon and therefore his non-Goon partner/s are a higher priority.
-Keeping ash alive will disincentive them from killing me since when you get my flip ash becomes confirmed scum.
-Lynching someone other than ash will at least narrow down my investigation pool in the event that there is still a Goon left for me to find.

This makes Jimmmmm more likely scum actually. You understand that we have to lynch ash now because we don't know if you're telling the ruth oherwise, right?
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1154 on: December 12, 2013, 05:43:07 am »

I'm not sure Goon Cop is such a terrible fake claim. It has a chance of outing the actual Goon Cop, which may or may not be very desireable (depending on what mafia chose) and there's the possibility of a scum v scum ploy. I don't really believe that but I guess it's possible. Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird to me in many ways, which is why I'm interested as to his reasoning for claiming now.

Well yes, that's all possible, but even if his were he case, our best way to proceed is lynching ashersky, right? Then we can think about whether Jimmmmm is scum tomorrow.

Unless we're partners that planned this.  (spoiler alert: we're not.)  Then he sails off into the sunset.

If you haven't read LOTR1, I highly recommend it.  That scum!Jimmmmm is resurrected here.

Only he doesn't. I'm still suspicious of if and will continue to be even if you flip scum.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1155 on: December 12, 2013, 05:46:21 am »

I'm not sure Goon Cop is such a terrible fake claim. It has a chance of outing the actual Goon Cop, which may or may not be very desireable (depending on what mafia chose) and there's the possibility of a scum v scum ploy. I don't really believe that but I guess it's possible. Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird to me in many ways, which is why I'm interested as to his reasoning for claiming now.

Well yes, that's all possible, but even if his were he case, our best way to proceed is lynching ashersky, right? Then we can think about whether Jimmmmm is scum tomorrow.

Probably. Ash's counterclaim is also not convincing at all to me, so lyching him seems fine. But I'm intrigued by Jimmmm's claim, and not in a good way.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1156 on: December 12, 2013, 05:52:52 am »

The Jorbles NK makes more sense now, with jimmmmm confirmed as scum.  Separate on wagons, no real interaction.  Good choice for him specifically.

Any likely partners for jimmmmm stick out?  Walrus, manda...

Robz could be epically bussing, I guess.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1157 on: December 12, 2013, 05:53:49 am »

I'm not sure Goon Cop is such a terrible fake claim. It has a chance of outing the actual Goon Cop, which may or may not be very desireable (depending on what mafia chose) and there's the possibility of a scum v scum ploy. I don't really believe that but I guess it's possible. Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird to me in many ways, which is why I'm interested as to his reasoning for claiming now.

Well yes, that's all possible, but even if his were he case, our best way to proceed is lynching ashersky, right? Then we can think about whether Jimmmmm is scum tomorrow.

Probably. Ash's counterclaim is also not convincing at all to me, so lyching him seems fine. But I'm intrigued by Jimmmm's claim, and not in a good way.

Not sure how to be convincing for you.  You've never played with me.  Vets will know.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1158 on: December 12, 2013, 05:58:30 am »

Well, ok, have you been in this situation before so that I can look it up and compare ? I'm wary of meta defenses for scummy things, but I guess I might as well get informed.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1159 on: December 12, 2013, 06:17:35 am »

Well, ok, have you been in this situation before so that I can look it up and compare ? I'm wary of meta defenses for scummy things, but I guess I might as well get informed.

You mean scum fake claims catching town PRs in a mislynch?  Most famously, I got mcmc mislynched D2 of Mean Girls, basically exactly the way Jimmmmm is doing here.

My very first game, I was town doc who caught scum in a fake cop claim.
In Hydras mafia, scum fake claimed cop with a guilty result on me when I was the real cop.  I wasn't believed and was mislynched in Lylo for the town loss.

In all cases, scum was the first claim, town was the counter.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1160 on: December 12, 2013, 06:21:10 am »

The third case was the one I was thinking of (to see if you're usually more believeable counterclaiming as town), I'll check that out. I did read your first game but you were a newbie back then, even missing that you could counterclaim Frisk immediately so I don't know how relevant that would be. I'll check out the hydra game I guess.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1161 on: December 12, 2013, 07:19:24 am »

You know what? In this situation, it would be really neat if we still had a Tracker...
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1162 on: December 12, 2013, 07:22:18 am »

Also unvote. I still think lynching ashersky is our best move, but no need to rush things. There's still time, and everyone should have the chance to discuss this situation.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1163 on: December 12, 2013, 10:54:17 am »

Now I'm actually perfectly fine with not lynching ash Today and trying to find his partners instead, for a few reasons:
-ash is a Goon and therefore his non-Goon partner/s are a higher priority.
-Keeping ash alive will disincentive them from killing me since when you get my flip ash becomes confirmed scum.
-Lynching someone other than ash will at least narrow down my investigation pool in the event that there is still a Goon left for me to find.

This makes Jimmmmm more likely scum actually. You understand that we have to lynch ash now because we don't know if you're telling the ruth oherwise, right?

Oh my! What a busy night last night. But this seems really good, actually. Let's think it through.

Regardless of if any of them are telling the truth, at least one is scum. So let's work through the scenarios:

  • Lynch ash today
    • ash flips town - lynch Jimmmmm. We've traded 1 PR for 1 scum. Seems fine.
    • ash flips scum - decide on Jimmmmm. We've traded maybe nothing for 1 scum. If Jimmmmm is a PR he's outed. So scum might kill him overnight? Or would they leave him alive hoping we mislynch him?
  • Lynch Jimmmmm today
    • Jimmmmm flips town - lynch ash. We've traded 1 PR for 1 scum. Seems fine.
    • Jimmmmm flips scum - decide on ash. We've traded maybe nothing for 1 scum. Same scenario as above I think?

I actually think we should lynch Jimmmmm since the scenarios look identical - RB is more valuable to have around, right? So if we're wrong, we want to lose the least hurtful PR. Am I missing something?
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1164 on: December 12, 2013, 11:04:18 am »

Thanks, Voltaire. I was having the same thoughts while thinking this through a bit more, but decided to wait and see if someone else posts them. Lynching Jimmmmm might actually be the better move here. The reasons look like this to me:

Lynch ashersky:
- Jimmmmm's claim was more believable
- ashersky's play looks scummier (to me at least)
- his claim can not be confirmed unless we have a night without NK.

Lynch Jimmmmm:
- if Jimmmmm is town, ashersky is only a Goon. If ashersky is town, Jimmmmm might be a scum PR.
- Jimmmmm's role is likely useless from now on
- his claim can not be confirmed as he might be scum sacrificing his partner
- what he said after his claim (about not lynching ashersky) looks scummy
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1165 on: December 12, 2013, 11:06:05 am »

I guess I will continue my D1 rereads. Look, up next are Jimmmmm and ashersky. How fitting...
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1166 on: December 12, 2013, 11:14:20 am »

- his claim can not be confirmed unless we have a night without NK.

Though if he is scum that could be his team no-killing to try to make his claim more believable.

I could actually see this being a scum/scum gambit since it involves ashersky...and Jimmmmm was the scummier of the two in my book.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1167 on: December 12, 2013, 11:22:39 am »

- his claim can not be confirmed unless we have a night without NK.

Though if he is scum that could be his team no-killing to try to make his claim more believable.

I could actually see this being a scum/scum gambit since it involves ashersky...and Jimmmmm was the scummier of the two in my book.

^^Yes, wasn't I saying that this was more likely scum/scum than town/town, to me?

Definitely lynch Jimm, I think. If it's town!Jimm and scum!ash and ash gets away with this crap again, that will really really suck... but what else can we do? Jimm is just so so different to me this game. If he were truly the cop he should be playing his typical reserved self, to maximize his chances of living long. And Jimm usually lives a long time for precisely this reason. If you're a town PR, you picked the really wrong time to switch up your meta!

Yeah, so lynch Jimm.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1168 on: December 12, 2013, 11:30:34 am »

Jimmmmm, I don't understand why you decided to claim now (as opposed to earlier in the day or at L-2/L-1), and I really don't understand why you don't want to lynch ashersky if you know he's scum. Well I do understand it actually, but you have to admit that it makes the scum/scum possibility a lot more likely.

I don't think we should lynch Jimmmmm. We already lynched a PR for pretty similar reasons, remember ? I'm scared that this is Morgrim all over again (I mean, Jimmmmm's claim is a lot saner than Morgrim's obviously, but there still are similarities).
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1169 on: December 12, 2013, 11:32:49 am »

It's actually extra-nice this happened. I was thinking last night about how close the deadline is. We should be able to sort this out in the next two days and lynch and avoid the terrible weekend lull.

vote: Jimmmmm. That's 4 votes on Jimmmmm, L-2 (6 to lynch).
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1170 on: December 12, 2013, 11:34:33 am »

I don't think we should lynch Jimmmmm. We already lynched a PR for pretty similar reasons, remember ? I'm scared that this is Morgrim all over again (I mean, Jimmmmm's claim is a lot saner than Morgrim's obviously, but there still are similarities).

But we're also lynching a claimed PR if we lynch ash.
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faust

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1171 on: December 12, 2013, 11:35:24 am »

So, here's Jimmmmm's reread:

I'll just colllect everything noteable and give post numbers, since I don't want to quote all of it. In the beginning, we have the famous refusal to give Robz town points (#167). Then, early on, he has an exchange with ashersky (around #206). He then accuses mcmc of being vague (#245) and votes for him (#381). Note that he never says that he is no longer suspicious of mcmc.

During the e discussion, he defends e (#459, #491) and then is the first to vote Jorbles (#493). He then again has a conversation with ashersky (around #503). The next post, after e's claim, is interesting enough to quote it:

I think, although he probably shouldn't have claimed at this point, his claim does get him some Town points. If he is scum, Town probably don't have many PRs, since if they do that would be too great a risk to take.

This could be PR breadcrumbing (if he is scum, town doesn't have many PRs. I have a PR, so e is more likely town), but it's far from clear.

He is then suspicious of how quickly the Jorbles wagon grew (#536) and votes manda for her scummy Jorbles vote (#587). What follows, his whole opposition to the Morgrim wagon, is already well-discussed.
Now something big: At the start of D2, he posts this:

Hey people: It was a joke! ashersky was joking. We here at f.ds do that sometimes. Maybe it was scummy joking, I don't know. We do that too. But it was a joke.

By that time, according to his claim, he already knew that ashersky was scum. Why defend known scum?

All in all, the scum narrative for Jimmmmm is definitely there. I want him to respond to all this before we settle on a lynch though. ashersky reread is up next.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1172 on: December 12, 2013, 11:40:56 am »

- his claim can not be confirmed unless we have a night without NK.

Though if he is scum that could be his team no-killing to try to make his claim more believable.

I could actually see this being a scum/scum gambit since it involves ashersky...and Jimmmmm was the scummier of the two in my book.

Well, no, since if we get a night with no NK, ash has to tell us who he targeted, and if that person is town, we've caught him.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1173 on: December 12, 2013, 11:42:16 am »

L-2 already ? mcmc hasn't been there since the claim, so we should wait until he's back to put Jimmmmm at L-1 at the very least.

The possibilities are :
1) Jimmmmm is town, ash is scum
2) Jimmmmm is scum, ash is town
3) Both are scum

While Jimmmmm's claim is a little weird, it's a lot more believable to me than ash's claim, which feels like a last itch effort by caught scum to out the Roleblocker. If both are scum, the order in which we lynch them is basically irrelevant, and I feel like 1 is just way more likely than 2.

vote: ashersky
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« Reply #1174 on: December 12, 2013, 11:43:26 am »

Wait. No. Stop. All wrong.

I am the real roleblocker. I targeted Robz N1.

vote: ashersky

Nice try ash.
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