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[Voltaire]

I think Walrus has to be town regardless.

We were all on board for lynching Jimm before ash, weren't we? Weren't we at least strongly leaning that way? walrus's claim made ash the lynch for certain.

Mafia probably spared him to push a case they mistakenly thought would have merit. Nope, I'm not fooled.

Killing the IC is arguably more important anyway. Walrus COULD be scum, and would engender suspicion if he lived. Faust is more important to kill, because all cases against him are automatically false.

I no longer believe 2.7's claim. We needed our IC, you didn't protect him, and he died? Obvscum.

Vote: 2.7

OK, I see that Jimmmmm already pointed out a reason why this doesn't make any sense, but here's another. If e were scum, why would his team kill faust? They'd have to know it would make him incredibly suspicious, he'd fakeclaimed bodyguard! Is killing faust that worth it? This is reason, like, 626 why I think e is obv!town now.

Scum would never pick Bulletproof, I don't really know why it's in the setup to be honest.

because we could have had a Vigilante. Which I am not.

[Robz888]

Yeah yeah yeah I'm off the 2.7 bandwagon already, keep up! Scum is now Teproc...

[Robz888]

Teproc is scum.

He claimed at L-2 on day 1, before Morgrim did, IIRC.

I see why you believe Walrus' claim Robz, but I simply don't agree with your premise, which is that Jimmmmm would have been lynched if Walrus hadn't stepped in. Probably because I still don't understand why you (and Voltaire and faust) wanted to lynch him first, that still makes no sense to me. I believe he had 3 votes on him when Walrus stepped in ?

I'm having a hard time believing scum took 3 powers. I mean, maybe they did, but that seems very risky because it makes them super weak to the Goon Cop, who'd have a very high likelihood to exist if they did that. And I'm much more inclined to believe 2.7's and Jimmmm's claims because I have a town reads on them regardless, whereas I think Walrus has legitimately been scummy this game. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

Teproc is scum who has to argue that all the PR claims are actually not true, because he knows he gets POEd here.

[Robz888]

At LAX. Little time. Teproc is not a Goon.

Ok.  So if we believe Jimmmmm's claim, which I think is a pretty solid claim, then Teproc is either a VT, JOAT, role cop, or traitor.  Since Ash flipped regular goon, it really hurts the goon cop's ability because scum picked so many PRs.  It is entirely conceivable that scum did not choose to NK Jimmmmm because they knew that it was impossible for him to give a result.  (say they picked daytalk, JOAT, and (bulletproof or role cop)).  Picking Bulletproof or role cop is more likely given the fact that it is very possible that they chose 3 PRs.  I think Jimmmmm's result does lower any suspicion on Teproc, but is nothing that I would give a day pass for.

Yeah, well, he's just a JOAT or Rolecop.

[Robz888]

Vote: Teproc

[Voltaire]

At LAX. Little time. Teproc is not a Goon.

Ok.  So if we believe Jimmmmm's claim, which I think is a pretty solid claim, then Teproc is either a VT, JOAT, role cop, or traitor.  Since Ash flipped regular goon, it really hurts the goon cop's ability because scum picked so many PRs.  It is entirely conceivable that scum did not choose to NK Jimmmmm because they knew that it was impossible for him to give a result.  (say they picked daytalk, JOAT, and (bulletproof or role cop)).  Picking Bulletproof or role cop is more likely given the fact that it is very possible that they chose 3 PRs.  I think Jimmmmm's result does lower any suspicion on Teproc, but is nothing that I would give a day pass for.

Yeah, well, he's just a JOAT or Rolecop.

POE, scumming up PRs, very tempting. But he's also a cleared not-goon who was roleblocked (if we trust said PRs).

I want to re-read ash first.

[Teproc]

Teproc is scum who has to argue that all the PR claims are actually not true, because he knows he gets POEd here.

This from the guy who wanted to lynch Jimmmmm earlier ? Or even better, who wanted to lynch e two hours ago ? I think e and Jimmmmm's claims are true, I don't think Walrus' is. He was the last one to claim, which is the sweet spot for a fakeclaim, and he's been acting scummy all game.

[Robz888]

The silence in this game is maddening. This is the exciting point! We lynched a scum! We have claims to evaluate! Can we solve it via POE? THIS IS THE FUN PART. WAKE UP TOWN.

[Robz888]

Teproc is scum who has to argue that all the PR claims are actually not true, because he knows he gets POEd here.

This from the guy who wanted to lynch Jimmmmm earlier ? Or even better, who wanted to lynch e two hours ago ? I think e and Jimmmmm's claims are true, I don't think Walrus' is. He was the last one to claim, which is the sweet spot for a fakeclaim, and he's been acting scummy all game.

I don't really think he's been "acting scummy all game." Anyway, that arguments not very important anymore. His claim got ash lynched ahead of Jimm. That's crazy play for scum!

[2.71828.....]

Ok.  At this point I believe Walrus and Jimmmmm.  I also believe myself.  So this is what I am looking at:

Walrus
Jimmmmm
2.7

Two scum in 5 people:
Robz
Teproc
manda
mcmcsalot
Voltaire

[Teproc]

Teproc is scum who has to argue that all the PR claims are actually not true, because he knows he gets POEd here.

This from the guy who wanted to lynch Jimmmmm earlier ? Or even better, who wanted to lynch e two hours ago ? I think e and Jimmmmm's claims are true, I don't think Walrus' is. He was the last one to claim, which is the sweet spot for a fakeclaim, and he's been acting scummy all game.

I don't really think he's been "acting scummy all game." Anyway, that arguments not very important anymore. His claim got ash lynched ahead of Jimm. That's crazy play for scum!

I don't think that's an accurate description of what happened. Jimmmm wasn't getting lynched when his claim was so clearly better than ash's claim. He got a few votes, sure, but I believe ash would have been lynched regardless of Walrus' roleclaim.

In fact, if Walrus was the roleblocker, wouldn't he have waited until Jimmmmm was at L-1 to counterclaim ash ? That certainly seems like the best play to me, Walrus was a little overeager in his counterclaim here. Maybe because he was so happy to have caught scum when ash claimed Rolebocker, or because it was a plan.

Arguments are not important anymore ? What ?

[Robz888]

No, arguments are important, just not "well, Walrus was kinda scummy bleh." Day 1 reads are just pretty useless in the face of the sort of real evidence we have now. Although re-reading Day 1 for clues to ash's partner would be a good thing to do.

[Teproc]

I mean, it was ignored because Jimmmm claimed Goon Cop, but I had an actual case on Walrus on day 2, here it is :

You can agree or disagree but it's a little more than "kinda scummy bleh".

Of course what has happened changed stuff, my argument is that Warlus' claim is scummy. But you're right, I should reread to see his (and others) interactions with ash.

[2.71828.....]

Teproc D1:

Chooses JOAT+Role Cop as his scum PR choices, with the option of daytalk.  If he is scum, we know he was lying since Ash was a regular goon.  But scum would be lying there anyway most likely.  (unless they weren't- Ash said all or none)

Is big on Robz being scum.  Maintains this all day.  Don't know what to read into this yet without one of them flipping.  He is also against the Jorbles lynch.  He then eventually goes over to voting Morgrim after the Morgrim claim, which is something both town and scum did I am sure.  (how many scum did is a question worth reevaluating though.  Working under the assumption they chose 3 PRs means they probably have daytalk, and they must have discussed this.  But that is a different post)

D2:
A good post discussing the Jorbles NK.  Finds walrus scummy.  Maintains his scum!robz read.  Finds Jimmmmm/Ash to be town/town. Eventually lands on an Ashersky vote (pre-walrus claim).  Says a bit more but not much else to note

D3:
Sheeps my hypothetical about a Walrus fake-claim.  Mentions how there might not be any goons left.

Summary:
Big against robz.  I don't see both of them being scum.  But I could see either of them being scum.  He was basically right about Jimmmmm/Ashersky, and his vote on Ash before the walrus claim is big town points in my mind.  I am leaning town on Teproc right now.

PPE: 2

[Voltaire]

I want to re-read ash first.

Alright. First off, I think it's pretty safe to assume at this point that mafia took 3 powers. Ash straight-up said it, and there's no way we have three/four fakeclaims. Ash also did the "derpity derp my exact scum role" thing in Grimm mafia. So we'd have 5 PRs (IC, Tracker, bodyguard, roleblocker, Goon Cop). Just based on that, I find all our claimed PRs very believable.

Upon a re-read of ash, this is how everyone looks:

Voltaire - me!

Walrus - the biggest thing, obviously, is that he counter-claimed ash. If they're teammates, this can only be a gambit for cred. We were looking likely to lynch Jimmmmm prior to this, which would have resulted in ash's lynch the day after, but scum gets in another night kill. I simply do not see this pairing one bit. Scenarios which include Walrus as an unrecruited traitor make no sense. I think Walrus has to be a virtual IC. Also, Walrus was one of ash's (many) big pushes D1. Oh, and then the D2 stuff. I don't see it at all.

Robz - called scum by ash at a safe point where Robz wouldn't be lynched. Not much interaction here.

Jimmmmm - Several arguments with ash throughout the game. Could be a scum/scum staged fight (anything involving ash is possible) but it would need to be ongoing throughout the entire game and involve daychat. That's possible. Hmmm. But with Jimmmmm being the one to live , that seems to make it less likely. I also don't remember liking Jimmmmm as a crazy plans guy. Also, a town narrative for him yesterday does make sense. If one of our PRs is scum it's Jimmmmm but I think that's unlikely.

manda - Entirely possible. ash's comments about not hedging could be cleverly-hidden advice to his scum partner in plan sight (but that's likely unnecessary if they have daychat).

Teproc - there's almost nothing here. All I saw was ash calling an interaction between me and Teproc town v town. Can definitely see a pairing here.

2.7 - virtually impossible, see elsewhere. Also, e was one of the wagons ash hopped onto. He really, really pushed an e case.

mcmc - ash called him scum at a time when he wasn't the focus of conversation and there was no threat of a wagon. Could entirely see a partnership here. This also doesn't look good:

I think you've been swooping in at times, (which I admit can just be IRL) to ensure you add content when needed.  That's what I think of as acti-lurking.  It isn't necessarily scummy.  I did want to see how folks reacted to those labels.

and the "mcmc is trying" from D1 was something I also noticed.

based on a re-read of ash, vote: mcmc. My other candidates for today right now are Robz, manda, and Teproc. I'll want to look at them (and the wagons/final votes) of the days more as well.

PPE - I had to go to lunch. 

[2.71828.....]

based on a re-read of ash, vote: mcmc. My other candidates for today right now are Robz, manda, and Teproc. I'll want to look at them (and the wagons/final votes) of the days more as well.

I find that kind of humorous.  You just said you believe all the claims, then list everyone (excluding yourself) who has not claimed. 

[Voltaire]

I don't think that's an accurate description of what happened. Jimmmm wasn't getting lynched when his claim was so clearly better than ash's claim. He got a few votes, sure, but I believe ash would have been lynched regardless of Walrus' roleclaim.

In fact, if Walrus was the roleblocker, wouldn't he have waited until Jimmmmm was at L-1 to counterclaim ash ? That certainly seems like the best play to me, Walrus was a little overeager in his counterclaim here. Maybe because he was so happy to have caught scum when ash claimed Rolebocker, or because it was a plan.

I stand by my reasoning that in just ash/Jimmmmm, you lynch Jimmmmm first. See here:

Regardless of if any of them are telling the truth, at least one is scum. So let's work through the scenarios:

• Lynch ash today
• ash flips town - lynch Jimmmmm. We've traded 1 PR for 1 scum. Seems fine.
• ash flips scum - decide on Jimmmmm. We've traded maybe nothing for 1 scum. If Jimmmmm is a PR he's outed. So scum might kill him overnight? Or would they leave him alive hoping we mislynch him?
• Lynch Jimmmmm today
• Jimmmmm flips town - lynch ash. We've traded 1 PR for 1 scum. Seems fine.
• Jimmmmm flips scum - decide on ash. We've traded maybe nothing for 1 scum. Same scenario as above I think?

I actually think we should lynch Jimmmmm since the scenarios look identical - RB is more valuable to have around, right? So if we're wrong, we want to lose the least hurtful PR. Am I missing something?

As far as Walrus waiting to claim...why would he need to wait until Jimmmmm was at L-1? He was at L-2 (I think) and the movement did seem to be going towards ash. It makes no difference.

[Voltaire]

based on a re-read of ash, vote: mcmc. My other candidates for today right now are Robz, manda, and Teproc. I'll want to look at them (and the wagons/final votes) of the days more as well.

I find that kind of humorous.  You just said you believe all the claims, then list everyone (excluding yourself) who has not claimed. 

What's funny about that?

[Robz888]

Summary:
Big against robz.  I don't see both of them being scum.  But I could see either of them being scum.  He was basically right about Jimmmmm/Ashersky, and his vote on Ash before the walrus claim is big town points in my mind.  I am leaning town on Teproc right now.

PPE: 2

Being right doesn't make someone less likely to be scum.

[2.71828.....]

based on a re-read of ash, vote: mcmc. My other candidates for today right now are Robz, manda, and Teproc. I'll want to look at them (and the wagons/final votes) of the days more as well.

I find that kind of humorous.  You just said you believe all the claims, then list everyone (excluding yourself) who has not claimed. 

What's funny about that?

The thing that I find funny is that at the beginning of your post you basically take claimed PRs off the table.  You take yourself off the table.  there are only 4 people left.  You vote one and say the three others are candidates for today.  I find that funny because you said it in a POE sort of way, but you had already POEed everyone else except for them. 

[Voltaire]

based on a re-read of ash, vote: mcmc. My other candidates for today right now are Robz, manda, and Teproc. I'll want to look at them (and the wagons/final votes) of the days more as well.

I find that kind of humorous.  You just said you believe all the claims, then list everyone (excluding yourself) who has not claimed. 

What's funny about that?

The thing that I find funny is that at the beginning of your post you basically take claimed PRs off the table.  You take yourself off the table.  there are only 4 people left.  You vote one and say the three others are candidates for today.  I find that funny because you said it in a POE sort of way, but you had already POEed everyone else except for them.

It's a matter of working at it from different angles. Based on the angle of, we have a ton of claims, the flipped scum said he'd take 3 PRs, we probably have 5 total PRs, there are 5 claims angle. So take off all the PRs.

Then there is the interaction with ash angle. Take off Walrus and e, almost certainly Jimmmmm.

Then there will be the re-reading everyone angle (haven't done that yet).

[Teproc]

As far as Walrus waiting to claim...why would he need to wait until Jimmmmm was at L-1? He was at L-2 (I think) and the movement did seem to be going towards ash. It makes no difference.

What's the upside in not waiting for L-1 ? If I had been in Walrus' shoes, I would have waited for the last possible moment (ie when Jimmmmm was at L-1 and could have been hammered) to counterclaim because I wouldn't want to be outed. I don't see why you would claim at L-2 in Walrus' case. We weren't that close to deadline so he could have waited to see if the wagon on Jimmmm held up, which I don't think it would have. mcmc was techincally on that wagon but his vote had been there pre-claim and he hadn't showed up at that point which made the Jimmmmm wagon seem bigger than it was. I don't see why Roleblocker Walrus would claim at that point, except if he didin the heat of the moment because he was happy to catch ash, which is of course possible, but not optimal.

[Voltaire]

As far as Walrus waiting to claim...why would he need to wait until Jimmmmm was at L-1? He was at L-2 (I think) and the movement did seem to be going towards ash. It makes no difference.

What's the upside in not waiting for L-1 ? If I had been in Walrus' shoes, I would have waited for the last possible moment (ie when Jimmmmm was at L-1 and could have been hammered) to counterclaim because I wouldn't want to be outed. I don't see why you would claim at L-2 in Walrus' case. We weren't that close to deadline so he could have waited to see if the wagon on Jimmmm held up, which I don't think it would have. mcmc was techincally on that wagon but his vote had been there pre-claim and he hadn't showed up at that point which made the Jimmmmm wagon seem bigger than it was. I don't see why Roleblocker Walrus would claim at that point, except if he didin the heat of the moment because he was happy to catch ash, which is of course possible, but not optimal.

But why does that make Walrus more likely to be scum? Just because someone doesn't play a PR optimally (even if that is the case) doesn't make them scum/fakeclaiming.

[Teproc]

As far as Walrus waiting to claim...why would he need to wait until Jimmmmm was at L-1? He was at L-2 (I think) and the movement did seem to be going towards ash. It makes no difference.

What's the upside in not waiting for L-1 ? If I had been in Walrus' shoes, I would have waited for the last possible moment (ie when Jimmmmm was at L-1 and could have been hammered) to counterclaim because I wouldn't want to be outed. I don't see why you would claim at L-2 in Walrus' case. We weren't that close to deadline so he could have waited to see if the wagon on Jimmmm held up, which I don't think it would have. mcmc was techincally on that wagon but his vote had been there pre-claim and he hadn't showed up at that point which made the Jimmmmm wagon seem bigger than it was. I don't see why Roleblocker Walrus would claim at that point, except if he didin the heat of the moment because he was happy to catch ash, which is of course possible, but not optimal.

But why does that make Walrus more likely to be scum? Just because someone doesn't play a PR optimally (even if that is the case) doesn't make them scum/fakeclaiming.

Because I expect people to play well, don't you ? I mean, wasn't the whole reason you voted for Jimmmmm after his claim that his timing was off ? As I said, it's entirely possible that Walrus got excited about catching ash and claimed too early because of that.

His timing makes perfect sense to me as part of a scum plan though. In order to get town cred, he needs to do it before the wagon on ash gets too big.

Off to reread Walrus with ash's flip in mind this time.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Yeah man, if you don't believe my claim now idk what to tell you...it directly led to scum being lynched for Pete's sake. What more do you want out of me??

Why did I claim at the time I did? Well to be honest I didn't think about it too much. I woke up, saw people talking about roleblocking, Phoenix Wright said "Hold it!", and then I claimed. I was very excited and pleased to catch someone in a counterclaim, it's the first time for me. I bet if I had waited until L-1, you guys would be like, "oh why did Walrus wait until L-1? FAAAKE!"

Jimmmmm's claim I find similarly believable. He wasn't lying about the result and it would have been a hell of a gambit to bus to that extent.

e's claim...well I can see where you're coming from Robz. First of all, you know I found e scummy all throughout D1. And then as a town PR, I was growing more and more skeptical as all these claims are coming out, and the bodyguard could be an easy one to fake. I could see ash telling e to make the claim or something like that. And then the fact that he's first out of the gates today to explain why I'm scummy and/or Mafia is acting strange...it didn't sit right with me. I can also see the town angle though, so maybe there are better lynches today.

My top scumread defaults back to mcmc now that ash is dead...of course he won't be around for awhile apparently, so that's kind of annoying. I need to do a reread of ash interactions through the lens of him being def!scum.

Teproc seems very insistent to paint me as scum. I'm not sure why to be honest; I'll have to take a look at his D2 case against me. I'm inclined to find this scummy, but of course we have a double result on him from last night, which should mitigate that. However those results are imperfect, so he shouldn't be discounted. In general I have found Teproc on the townier side since the beginning of the game (e.g. in his frustration towards Morgrim), although not as active and analytical as he was in GoT.

manda needs to post more. Like even more than me, and I definitely need to post more. It's really hard to form judgments on her so far from what little we've seen. Of course LALL, but we've had some pretty lurky mislynches in recent games too.

Voltaire I've had a town read on all game, and he hasn't really given me any reason so far to change that. Robz I think has been acting townier as well, especially since the beginning of the day.

So that leaves me with vote: mcmc for now, with Teproc, manda, and e being other suspicions. All of this contingent on rereads that may or may not happen in the near or distant future. I ought to have some more time tomorrow for some proper digging.