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[Jimmmmm]

a) If I were to go from Mex. City to Jo'berg and treat 1 cube, how does Sydney enter into the picture (in terms of getting back)?  To go from Jo'berg to Sydney is almost two full turns (though I could treat black in two cities along the way, so I'm likely to be gone for a while (which, with my shuffle luck, would guarantee my drawing blue cards).

Sydney is linked to LA, so you could fly to Sydney then ferry (?).

b) assuming Schneau ends up in Toronto on this first turn, and Jim then drives to Toronto and takes the Toronto card on his Turn 2 (giving us 4 blue cards and the cure for blue), how do either of you get anywhere quickly on subsequent turns?  The Toronto card would be surrendered, making charter flight out of Toronto impossible.

I'm not sure, depends what cards we draw. But I think getting the cure is worth it.

I think getting Shraeye to Jo'berg, out of Mex. City is the best plan, he's the medic, he'll have maximum effect whether it outbreaks or not, and if it does, he's near all the new cubes.  So here is what I propose for my turn (not in bold yet, so not official):

Share knowledge with Shraeye (Mex. City card - it lets him charter to Jo'berg); drive to Chicago; treat 2 cubes.  Me staying in chicago keeps me one action closer to Jim, in case I draw a blue card - he wouldn't have to go to Toronto, and Schneau's Toronto card could then be used for transportation on his turn, likely to Madrid, which is close to Paris. With any luck, we could not only have found a cure for blue but actually eradicate blue by my Turn 3, where I would slide over to Toronto and treat 2 cubes (assuming Schneau treated none before flying).  It may increase the chance of a problem on the African continent, but we have the best person (medic) headed that way anyway, and we will have shortened his trip.

I like it. For some reason I thought shraeye had Lima, and it didn't occur to me to pass him MC. Alternatively, you could pass MC to shraeye then come to MC and give me Sydney, leaving healing blue until we have the cure. Either would be fine, I think.

So at this stage I think the plan is for Schneau to meet me in Toronto if SFS doesn't draw any blues, and shraeye to go to Jo'burg via MC and remove all the cubes there.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Qvist, here is my move:

1) Share knowledge with Shraeye (the medic) - Give him the Mexico City Card
2) Drive to Chicago
3) Treat disease
4) Treat disease

[Qvist]

SwitchedFromStarcraft Researcher draws St. Petersburg, EPIDEMIC.

EPIDEMIC
Increase: Infection Rate rises.
Infect: Epidemic in New York (3 cubes)
Intensify: Infection Discard Pile is shuffled and placed on top of the draw pile.
Infector: Lima, Paris



Player 1: Jimmmmm Scientist (white)
Manila, San Francisco, Washington, New York

Player 2: SwitchedFromStarcraft Researcher
Sydney, St. Petersburg

Player 3: Schneau Operations Expert
Lima, Toronto

Player 4: shraeye Medic
Algiers, Sao Paolo, Mexico City

Schneau's next.

[Jimmmmm]

Now things start to get interesting. NY and Jo'burg are now both at least fairly near the top of the infection. It's really good that SFS drew a blue, that frees up Schneau to deal with NY. I would suggest driving to NY and then either removing one cube and driving to Toronto, or removing two cubes, either way with the plan to fly out from Toronto to wherever a research station might be needed next turn. shraeye can still deal with Jo'burg as planned, and I'll take St. Petersburg from SFS and go back to Atlanta to get the cure.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Well, that sort of sucked, but at least I have a blue card for Jimmm.

Something to keep track of:  When the infector cards were reshuffled, here's what went on top of the Infector deck in an unknown order (:

Mexico City, Johannesburg, Lima , Bogotá
Chicago , Toronto , Madrid , Paris
Ho Chi Minh City
Cairo, Riyadh
New York

Lima and Paris have been re-drawn, so the next 10 cards on the top of the infector deck include:

Mexico City, Johannesburg, Bogotá
Chicago , Toronto , Madrid
Ho Chi Minh City
Cairo, Riyadh
New York

We likely have a short interval between now and the next epidemic.  50 Player cards were divided into equal piles (say 12 each), with one EPIDEMIC card in each pile.  Our first Epidemic was 4 cards in, so we should have AT LEAST 8 more cards (4 people's turns) before the next one, possibly a lot more.

I think a cure for blue is important, for several reasons.  I've now seen how things change so much so quickly, it's within reach (we have the critical mass of cards AND the player locations needed).  I wish it would prevent further placement of blue on the board, but that won't happen until we eradicate the disease.

Speaking of curing blue:  Assuming Jim comes to Chicago to receive the (closest) blue card from me, he then needs to be in a city with a research station to cure blue.  So he will either need to move on to Atlanta (his move would be Drive, Share, Drive to Atlanta, cure blue), or Schneau needs to create a research station in Chicago on his way through (which he can do without having the Chicago card), thereby saving Jim a 4th action which might be useful.  Is it wasteful to create a Research Station a) just to cure a disease and/or b) so close to another?

Semi-ninja'd.

[Qvist]

We likely have a short interval between now and the next epidemic.  50 Player cards were divided into equal piles (say 12 each), with one EPIDEMIC card in each pile.  Our first Epidemic was 4 cards in, so we should have AT LEAST 8 more cards (4 people's turns) before the next one, possibly a lot more.

It's exactly 5 Epidemic cards within 50 cards, so that's 10 cards per Epidemic. That means you have at least 3 turns without Epidemic.

[Schneau]

Well, that hurts, but it could have been worse. Since the epidemic hit on our second turn, it means we get at least 3 more turns that we know we won't get an epidemic. Which should hopefully give us time to cure blue and do some cleanup in the 3-cube cities. Here's a stream-of-consciousness of my thoughts on what to do next:

SFS drew St. Petersburg, which means that we can cure blue without me giving Toronto to Jimmmmm in Toronto. It would require Jimmmmm's turn to be: Drive to Chicago, receive St. Petersburg from SFS, drive to Atlanta, cure blue. After we have the cure, both Toronto and New York will be easier to clean up, since it makes us all act like a Medic, and the Medic can clean a city just by being in it. SFS's next turn is the last one where we're guaranteed not to get an epidemic, so it might be best used to totally clear Toronto and New York after Jimmmmm finds the cure for blue.

This leaves open the question of what shraeye and I should do this turn. Lima and Jo'burg are our other 3-cube cities. I have Lima, so I could use two actions to fly there and treat a cube. There are quite a few options for my other two actions. I could treat another cube in Lima. I could build a Research Station (RS) in Lima, or I could drive to MC or Bogata and then build a RS. The latter two cities have more neighbors, but they're also closer to the RS in Atlanta. [OPTION A]

Another crazy thought is that I could drive 3 times to get to Lima and treat 1 cube, which means I could hold onto Lima so that on my next turn I could do something like treat 1 cube and then fly anywhere in the world that we're having trouble at that point. Since I'm the Operations Expert, I could build a RS wherever I fly to, which could make it easier to get to the most important areas for other players.

So, I'm now leaning toward this second plan of driving all the way to Lima and treating 1 cube, with the plan of chartering a flight out of Lima on my next turn (possibly after treating one cube). [OPTION B]

If I do that, I think shraeye's best option would still be to drive to MC and fly to Jo'burg to totally clean it up. Then, if SFS cleans up Toronto and New York entirely on his turn, we will have cleaned up any 3-cube cities that we currently have. Of course, since there was an epidemic, all the infection cards that we've already seen were shuffled on top of the deck, so places like MC and Ho Chi Minh City may get up to 3 by then. And I just realized NYC might outbreak, where Lima will not, since it was just drawn and is in the discard pile.

So, if we're worried about NYC outbreaking, maybe I should scrap all the Lima plans and clean it up on my turn instead of waiting for SFS's turn. I could drive there and clean 1 cube and build a RC there. It's not worthwhile for me to treat 2 cubes, since once we have the cure we can treat all of them in one action. And if Toronto and NYC have 2 cubes each, we're not at risk for an outbreak in either until after SFS's turn. I can save Lima and maybe fly there on my next turn. [OPTION C]

Of the 3 options above, I'm now leaning toward OPTION C, which would prevent an outbreak in NYC and leave Jo'burg the only city capable of outbreak during the Infector part of my turn. shraeye can clean up Jo'burg, Jimmmmm can cure blue, and SFS can do some treating (or we can switch plans depending on what happens by that point). Sound good?

[Schneau]

I think it's not worthwhile to build a RS in Chicago for a faster cure - I think it's more important for me to treat NYC. I'm going to go get some breakfast, and after that take my move to treat NYC and build a RS there unless someone disagrees with that.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

We likely have a short interval between now and the next epidemic.  50 Player cards were divided into equal piles (say 12 each), with one EPIDEMIC card in each pile.  Our first Epidemic was 4 cards in, so we should have AT LEAST 8 more cards (4 people's turns) before the next one, possibly a lot more.

It's exactly 5 Epidemic cards within 50 cards, so that's 10 cards per Epidemic. That means you have at least 3 turns without Epidemic.

Thanks for the reinforcement, I had forgotten that was stated in the OP.  Note to self: Normal game, not Introductory game.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

My comments/questions are in line, in bold red.

-snip-

SFS drew St. Petersburg, which means that we can cure blue without me giving Toronto to Jimmmmm in Toronto. It would require Jimmmmm's turn to be: Drive to Chicago, receive St. Petersburg from SFS, drive to Atlanta, cure blue. I see him spending the action to get to Atlanta as better than you building a RS in Chicago on your way elsewhere. After we have the cure, both Toronto and New York will be easier to clean up, since it makes us all act like a Medic I had missed this little detail somehow, and the Medic can clean a city just by being in it. SFS's next turn is the last one where we're guaranteed not to get an epidemic, so it might be best used to totally clear Toronto and New York after Jimmmmm finds the cure for blue. I was already thinking in these terms, as I can drive from NY to London or Madrid to begin clearing blue cubes over there on my T3.

This leaves open the question of what shraeye and I should do this turn. Lima and Jo'burg are our other 3-cube cities. I have Lima, so I could use two actions to fly there and treat a cube. There are quite a few options for my other two actions. I could treat another cube in Lima. I could build a Research Station (RS) in Lima, or I could drive to MC or Bogata and then build a RS. The latter two cities have more neighbors, but they're also closer to the RS in Atlanta. [OPTION A]

Another crazy thought is that I could drive 3 times to get to Lima and treat 1 cube, which means I could hold onto Lima so that on my next turn I could do something like treat 1 cube and then fly anywhere in the world that we're having trouble at that point. Since I'm the Operations Expert, I could build a RS wherever I fly to, which could make it easier to get to the most important areas for other players.

So, I'm now leaning toward this second plan of driving all the way to Lima and treating 1 cube, with the plan of chartering a flight out of Lima on my next turn (possibly after treating one cube). [OPTION B]  I like option B best for your turn, as it preserves your transportation options for later.

If I do that, I think shraeye's best option would still be to drive to MC and fly to Jo'burg to totally clean it up. Then, if SFS cleans up Toronto and New York entirely on his turn, we will have cleaned up any 3-cube cities that we currently have. Of course, since there was an epidemic, all the infection cards that we've already seen were shuffled on top of the deck, so places like MC and Ho Chi Minh City may get up to 3 by then. And I just realized NYC might outbreak, where Lima will not, since it was just drawn and is in the discard pile.

So, if we're worried about NYC outbreaking, maybe I should scrap all the Lima plans and clean it up on my turn instead of waiting for SFS's turn. I could drive there and clean 1 cube and build a RC there. It's not worthwhile for me to treat 2 cubes, since once we have the cure we can treat all of them in one action. And if Toronto and NYC have 2 cubes each, we're not at risk for an outbreak in either until after SFS's turn. I can save Lima and maybe fly there on my next turn. [OPTION C] I think we take a chance on NYC outbreaking, and you should stick to option B.  Once the cure for blue is in place, I can do a lot of cleaning up in one turn, and I'm already in the area.

Of the 3 options above, I'm now leaning toward OPTION C, which would prevent an outbreak in NYC and leave Jo'burg the only city capable of outbreak during the Infector part of my turn. shraeye can clean up Jo'burg, Jimmmmm can cure blue, and SFS can do some treating (or we can switch plans depending on what happens by that point). Sound good?  Again, I'm against this plan, and am in favor of Option B.  With the infector cards we know are on top, I feel like we have time before red and black get hot, and we should continue beating on blue and yellow while we are nearby.

One other thought.  My staying in the same (relative) area means I'm likely driving, not spending cards to travel.  I would therefore be accumulating cards.  Is my having larger handsizes something to keep in mind, given my ability to GIVE away cards during my turn (up to 4 per turn).  I'm not suggesting we make this a huge factor in the game; rather, I'm asking if it is something to consider in close decisions (a tie-breaker, so to speak, in tough calls).

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I think it's not worthwhile to build a RS in Chicago for a faster cure - I think it's more important for me to treat NYC. I'm going to go get some breakfast, and after that take my move to treat NYC and build a RS there unless someone disagrees with that.

Please see my post from when you were at breakfast.  Also, my general question from #55 still stands (except now we may be considering an RS in NYC instead of Chicago):  Is it wasteful to create a Research Station so close to another?

[Schneau]

Please see my post from when you were at breakfast.  Also, my general question from #55 still stands (except now we may be considering an RS in NYC instead of Chicago):  Is it wasteful to create a Research Station so close to another?

It is a bit wasteful, but if I have no other options that seem better, it could be useful.

With SFS's input, I'm now on the fence again between options B and C. Note that by SFS's turn, we will see 6 out of the 10 infection cards that we have already seen from:

Mexico City, Johannesburg, Bogotá, Chicago , Toronto , Madrid, New York, Ho Chi Minh City, Cairo, Riyadh

This means we're facing a 6/10 risk of NYC outbreaking. Plus, if we get both Toronto and NYC by that point, we will face at least 2 outbreaks, with the possibility of 3 (if we get NYC and then Toronto, Toronto will outbreak and NYC will chain outbreak). This seems pretty scary, and can all be avoided if I treat NYC. Basically, we are trading off eliminating an outbreak possibility in NYC vs. having better positioning and spread on the board. I'm still leaning toward option C, but will wait to see what the others think before moving.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Please see my post from when you were at breakfast.  Also, my general question from #55 still stands (except now we may be considering an RS in NYC instead of Chicago):  Is it wasteful to create a Research Station so close to another?

It is a bit wasteful, but if I have no other options that seem better, it could be useful.

With SFS's input, I'm now on the fence again between options B and C. Note that by SFS's turn, we will see 6 out of the 10 infection cards that we have already seen from:

Mexico City, Johannesburg, Bogotá, Chicago , Toronto , Madrid, New York, Ho Chi Minh City, Cairo, Riyadh

This means we're facing a 6/10 risk of NYC outbreaking. Plus, if we get both Toronto and NYC by that point, we will face at least 2 outbreaks, with the possibility of 3 (if we get NYC and then Toronto, Toronto will outbreak and NYC will chain outbreak). This seems pretty scary, and can all be avoided if I treat NYC. Basically, we are trading off eliminating an outbreak possibility in NYC vs. having better positioning and spread on the board. I'm still leaning toward option C, but will wait to see what the others think before moving.

It does seem scary, but if you take option B, we would have options against yellow that we currently don't have, whereas we are NOT weaponless against blue (I'm nearby, Shraeye is nearby and is medic even without a cure for blue in place), especially in the geographic area where we are potentially at most (blue) risk.

I would argue this:  Yellow cities are currently at 3, 3, 2, and 1 cubes, we have only 1 person remotely near any of that, and that person needs to move north, away from the problem.
Blue cities are at 3, 2, 2, and 1 cubes (a slightly better situation for us than with yellow, cube wise), and we have (relatively) lots of resources nearby, with more powerful weapons (a cure) on the way, which in turn makes us all medics for blue.  Once a cure is in place, any 1 person can clean up two (driving distance) cities in one turn, no matter how many cubes.

I understand that the NY card could come up again, quickly.  But so could Jo'berg. However, you've stated your thoughts twice, so I am completely open to the fact that I've missed something important in your concern about NYC.  I'll go back and look at your discussion of the outbreaks and subsequent potential chains.  I will fully support whatever decision you make.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

I think I understand now. Let's forget Jo'berg for a moment (few neighbors, no cubes in those neighbors, so if we draw Jo'berg, fewer issues).

I was thinking that situation in NYC/Toronto/Madrid was identical to Lima/Mex. City/Bogata. Cube-wise it is, but BOTH Toronto and NYC are drawable, and ONLY Mex. City is drawable.  You effectively said this, and I just didn't absorb it.  I now agree that from the standpoint of potential bad developments, NYC/Toronto has a higher probability of occurring, and occurring potentially in the worst way.

So the question then becomes what is the best tradeoff.  Take the risk of the worse outcome, knowing we have better resources close by to deal with it if it occurs, or be proactive. Shraeye can still get to Mex. City with one action, cure all cubes, drive to Lima, cure all cubes.

Ok, I'm convinced.  You had it right with Option C (or some version of it).  Let's save our butts w/r/t blue.  (Sorry this took me so long to grasp).

[shraeye]

Yeah, I also support option C.  NewYork outbreaking is a strong possibility and if NewYork gets drawn before then we're looking at 5 new blue cubes and two outbreaks.  Whether or not we have the blue cure, I'm worried.

If J-burg outbreaks, I'll be there soon, and that's only 2 extra cubes I have to clean up.

[Schneau]

I think I understand now. Let's forget Jo'berg for a moment (few neighbors, no cubes in those neighbors, so if we draw Jo'berg, fewer issues).

I was thinking that situation in NYC/Toronto/Madrid was identical to Lima/Mex. City/Bogata. Cube-wise it is, but BOTH Toronto and NYC are drawable, and ONLY Mex. City is drawable.  You effectively said this, and I just didn't absorb it.  I now agree that from the standpoint of potential bad developments, NYC/Toronto has a higher probability of occurring, and occurring potentially in the worst way.

So the question then becomes what is the best tradeoff.  Take the risk of the worse outcome, knowing we have better resources close by to deal with it if it occurs, or be proactive. Shraeye can still get to Mex. City with one action, cure all cubes, drive to Lima, cure all cubes.

Ok, I'm convinced.  You had it right with Option C (or some version of it).  Let's save our butts w/r/t blue.  (Sorry this took me so long to grasp).

No problems . I agree that there are non-trivial tradeoffs to consider, and I like your summary of them. But, I'm most concerned about the chained outbreaks in NYC/Toronto, so I'm going to prevent those. Also, shraeye has the option to move to Lima in 3 drives and treat all its cubes, with the ability to drive to MC and fly out of it on his next turn to go to Jo'burg or wherever else is looking bad. So, we have options there.

Here's my turn:
1) Drive to Washington
2) Drive to New York
3) Treat 1 cube
4) Build Research Station (special ability of Operations Expert)

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

And so that I can learn, why did you choose to build the RS, rather than say, treat another cube (or even drive to Toronto, since you would then have double transportation flexibility with Toronto AND Lima in your hand)?

[shraeye]

I'm not sure what his reasons are, but I think here are some benefits to that move.

That Research Station is closer to a few places that already have cubes (Toronto, New York, Madrid, Paris) than Atlanta is.  The research stations will help us move around much faster in the future, and will not limit us to flying where our cards are.  Also, moving NY from 2 cubes to 1 cube isn't as important, as it's only going to grow by 1 in the future (so no risk of outbreak until after our next Epidemic) and once we have the blue cure, we can remove all the cubes at once.

Cities at 3 are VERY dangerous, especially if the cities nearby are already infected.  Cities at 2 are much less risky, so removing the second disease isn't critical.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

Thanks, that helps.  I suspect that we eventually need to aim for 1 RS per continent, roughly.

[Qvist]

Schneau Operations Expert draws Atlanta, Bangkok.

Infector: Bogotá, Johannesburg

Outbreak 1: Disease in Khartoum, Kinshasa



Player 1: Jimmmmm Scientist (white)
Manila, San Francisco, Washington, New York

Player 2: SwitchedFromStarcraft Researcher
Sydney, St. Petersburg

Player 3: Schneau Operations Expert
Lima, Toronto, Atlanta, Bangkok

Player 4: shraeye Medic
Algiers, Sao Paolo, Mexico City

shraeye's next.

[Schneau]

I'm not sure what his reasons are, but I think here are some benefits to that move.

That Research Station is closer to a few places that already have cubes (Toronto, New York, Madrid, Paris) than Atlanta is.  The research stations will help us move around much faster in the future, and will not limit us to flying where our cards are.  Also, moving NY from 2 cubes to 1 cube isn't as important, as it's only going to grow by 1 in the future (so no risk of outbreak until after our next Epidemic) and once we have the blue cure, we can remove all the cubes at once.

Cities at 3 are VERY dangerous, especially if the cities nearby are already infected.  Cities at 2 are much less risky, so removing the second disease isn't critical.

This accurately presents my thoughts. Treating a second cube in NYC didn't seem worthwhile, since once we have the cure we can treat both remaining cubes at once. I did consider moving to Toronto, but decided having another RS would be good even if it's somewhat close to Atlanta. They can be very helpful to move across the board, especially since we don't have a Dispatcher.

[Schneau]

Schneau Operations Expert draws Atlanta, Bangkok.

Infector: Bogotá, Johannesburg

Outbreak 1: Disease in Khartoum, Kinshasa

Well, the Jo'burg outbreak would have been inevitable either way. I definitely think shraeye should clean up some yellow, but don't know the best place. Let's check out what we know about the infection deck:

Infection discard: Paris, Lima, Johannesburg, Bogotá
Infection top of deck (don't know order): Mexico City, Chicago , Toronto , Madrid, New York, Ho Chi Minh City, Cairo, Riyadh

shraeye could cure MC, Bogota, or Lima without flying, or two of these (or cure Jo'burg) flying with his MC card. Just about any of these seem reasonable to me.

[Jimmmmm]

We were actually pretty lucky with the first epidemic I think. You generally want the first one to come earlier rather than later, because two very close together can be devastating, and can lead to two cities which have 3 cubes being very close to the top of the infection pile. New York was also a nice one to get, since it's close to where we all are, and we're about to get the cure for that colour.

A bit unlucky with Jo'burg, of course. Bear in mind that removing the cubes from Kinshasa and Khartoum is more important than normal because of the possibility of getting one of these from the bottom of the infection deck, triggering an instant outbreak.

We're now safe from further outbreaks until the next epidemic (no earlier than the end of SFS's next turn), since Lima and Jo'burg are both in the discard pile. Of course, we still want to get to these as soon as we can.

[Jimmmmm]

I think it might be a good idea for Schneau to fly to Jo'burg from Toronto on his next turn, remove one cube and build there. It's possible that it could outbreak again before then, but very unlikely (~2.5% if my very quick arithmetic is anything to go by). That leaves Lima as the priority for shraeye.

[shraeye]

Cool, I got some thoughts.

1. I could go SaoPaolo, Lagos, Kinshasa, treat to deal with that outbreak immediately
2. I could fly Algiers, Cairo, Khartoum, treat (deals with outbreak immediately and start saving yellow cards for cure)
3. I could go to MC, treat all, Lima, treat all (and deal with the outbreak next turn)
4. I could drive Miami, MC, treat all, fly to J-burg (a bit of progress towards both goals)
5. I could drive Miami, MC, fly to Jburg, treat all (this was a possible plan before, but I think it's less strong now that Jburg has already been drawn)

but I think the strongest is
6. drive Miami, drive to Bogota, treat, drive to SaoPaolo (this leaves Lima and MC alone, but let's me save my yellow cards for now, and next turn goes fly to Jburg, treat all, to Kinshasa, treat unless something else comes up)


But I didn't take into account Jimmm's plan for Schneau to build a Res-station in Jburg next turn.  thinking about this, I may drive Miami, Bogota, Lima, treat all.  It saves all my yellow cards for now, and I'm ready to deal with Bogota and MC soon.  This leaves Africa completely up to other people.