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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 161771 times)

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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1450 on: November 30, 2012, 05:47:06 pm »

So that just leaves Yuma to weigh in.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1451 on: November 30, 2012, 05:56:44 pm »

The first claimer is usually the liar. 

Where does this come from?  Hydra?  I have explained why Hydra isn't a proper comparator.  What are the other examples you're using to conclude "the first claimer is usually the liar?" 

This is a really worrisome meta frankly, because if accepted it will neuter all investigative roles.  Any time an investigative role gets a good result and claims, scum just counterclaims and "welp the first claimer is usually the liar" and boom, lynched investigator.

I'm not saying "you must believe me because I was first."  (Though that would be nice!)  What I'm saying is, "don't disbelieve me just because I was first."
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1452 on: November 30, 2012, 05:59:11 pm »

I can't think of exhaustive claim / counterclaim... but I also agree that the first claimer is usually the liar - but usually the first claimer is doing so under duress, and is taking a shot in the dark.

The best example was when asher busted my fake claim.  I gambled that there wasn't another town PR.... and I was wrong.

@QVist - is Axxle your scum buddy? 
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1453 on: November 30, 2012, 06:00:29 pm »

@QVist - is Axxle your scum buddy?
I'm not scum, CF, you know.

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1454 on: November 30, 2012, 06:01:25 pm »

@QVist - is Axxle your scum buddy?
I'm not scum, CF, you know.

Would you be willing to lynch Axxle if everyone else thought it was a good idea?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1455 on: November 30, 2012, 06:02:24 pm »

I can't think of exhaustive claim / counterclaim... but I also agree that the first claimer is usually the liar - but usually the first claimer is doing so under duress, and is taking a shot in the dark.

The best example was when asher busted my fake claim.  I gambled that there wasn't another town PR.... and I was wrong.

Exactly.  As was the case where you fakeclaimed; you were under duress, and you did it to save your skin.

But here, I claimed with no duress of any kind.  Nor are we in Lylo (the Hydra situation).

The proper comparator is NOT cases where scum fakeclaimed to avoid a lynch.  The proper comparator is cases where an investigative role claimed in order to inform the town about his investigation results. 
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1456 on: November 30, 2012, 06:06:02 pm »

@QVist - is Axxle your scum buddy?
I'm not scum, CF, you know.

Would you be willing to lynch Axxle if everyone else thought it was a good idea?

Are you talking about today or in general? I would rather lynch Voltgloss today, obviously.
I can't see the point killing Axxle is a good idea.

Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1457 on: November 30, 2012, 06:06:08 pm »

I can't think of exhaustive claim / counterclaim... but I also agree that the first claimer is usually the liar - but usually the first claimer is doing so under duress, and is taking a shot in the dark.

The best example was when asher busted my fake claim.  I gambled that there wasn't another town PR.... and I was wrong.

Exactly.  As was the case where you fakeclaimed; you were under duress, and you did it to save your skin.

But here, I claimed with no duress of any kind.  Nor are we in Lylo (the Hydra situation).

The proper comparator is NOT cases where scum fakeclaimed to avoid a lynch.  The proper comparator is cases where an investigative role claimed in order to inform the town about his investigation results.

How about M6?  I claimed seer early.... i wasn't counterclaimed by timchen because he didn't know any better, but he should have!
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1458 on: November 30, 2012, 06:06:55 pm »

I can't think of exhaustive claim / counterclaim... but I also agree that the first claimer is usually the liar - but usually the first claimer is doing so under duress, and is taking a shot in the dark.

The best example was when asher busted my fake claim.  I gambled that there wasn't another town PR.... and I was wrong.

Exactly.  As was the case where you fakeclaimed; you were under duress, and you did it to save your skin.

But here, I claimed with no duress of any kind.  Nor are we in Lylo (the Hydra situation).

The proper comparator is NOT cases where scum fakeclaimed to avoid a lynch.  The proper comparator is cases where an investigative role claimed in order to inform the town about his investigation results.

Apart from M1 - where the counterclaimer was the person who was already exposed and caught guilty - name 1 case where this is a valid comparison
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1459 on: November 30, 2012, 06:07:18 pm »

I can't think of exhaustive claim / counterclaim... but I also agree that the first claimer is usually the liar - but usually the first claimer is doing so under duress, and is taking a shot in the dark.

The best example was when asher busted my fake claim.  I gambled that there wasn't another town PR.... and I was wrong.

Exactly.  As was the case where you fakeclaimed; you were under duress, and you did it to save your skin.

But here, I claimed with no duress of any kind.  Nor are we in Lylo (the Hydra situation).

The proper comparator is NOT cases where scum fakeclaimed to avoid a lynch.  The proper comparator is cases where an investigative role claimed in order to inform the town about his investigation results.

But you waited till after the counterclaim.  And your information was about Frisk, who only I was voting for?  I agree that in hindsight CF was in very little real danger.  I could have seen you claiming when Frisk was at L-1... not out of the blue.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1460 on: November 30, 2012, 06:12:08 pm »

All right townies, there are a bunch of points that I've been weighing.  Full post to come later, but I'd like everyone to think about (And maybe write down your thoughts) on the following subjects.

1. Behavior change of Qvist between day 2 and day 3.
2. Why mafia would let the cop switch on.
3. Order of claimants (Volt 1st, Qvist 2nd)
4. Selection of Targets
5. Order of claimed targets (Volt 2nd, Qvist 1st)
6. Plausible newbie scum play
7. Plausible advanced scum play
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1461 on: November 30, 2012, 06:12:38 pm »

Oh - and
8. Real danger of my lynch (the reasons for Volt's claim)
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1462 on: November 30, 2012, 06:16:42 pm »


But you waited till after the counterclaim.  And your information was about Frisk, who only I was voting for?  I agree that in hindsight CF was in very little real danger.  I could have seen you claiming when Frisk was at L-1... not out of the blue.

Munch:  I think you are town.  I know Frisk is town.  That means that your vote, plus 2 scum votes, plus just ONE more town vote = lynched Frisk.

When it takes 4 to lynch, there are 2 scum, and 1 townie has already made a very clear and determined vote on another townie (your vote on Frisk), then the voted townie is, effectively, at L-1.  All it would take was one other townie to vote Frisk, and then scum can have their mislynch.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1463 on: November 30, 2012, 06:17:48 pm »

Frisk, I figure you probably don't want Qvist and me answering your various topics, but may I propose one complementary pair of topics for town to consider:

6a. Plausible newbie power role play
7a. Plausible advanced power role play
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1464 on: November 30, 2012, 06:22:07 pm »


But you waited till after the counterclaim.  And your information was about Frisk, who only I was voting for?  I agree that in hindsight CF was in very little real danger.  I could have seen you claiming when Frisk was at L-1... not out of the blue.

Munch:  I think you are town.  I know Frisk is town.  That means that your vote, plus 2 scum votes, plus just ONE more town vote = lynched Frisk.

When it takes 4 to lynch, there are 2 scum, and 1 townie has already made a very clear and determined vote on another townie (your vote on Frisk), then the voted townie is, effectively, at L-1.  All it would take was one other townie to vote Frisk, and then scum can have their mislynch.

Scum quickhammer?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1465 on: November 30, 2012, 06:26:38 pm »


But you waited till after the counterclaim.  And your information was about Frisk, who only I was voting for?  I agree that in hindsight CF was in very little real danger.  I could have seen you claiming when Frisk was at L-1... not out of the blue.

Munch:  I think you are town.  I know Frisk is town.  That means that your vote, plus 2 scum votes, plus just ONE more town vote = lynched Frisk.

When it takes 4 to lynch, there are 2 scum, and 1 townie has already made a very clear and determined vote on another townie (your vote on Frisk), then the voted townie is, effectively, at L-1.  All it would take was one other townie to vote Frisk, and then scum can have their mislynch.

Scum quickhammer?

Not necessarily "quick," but I can certainly see scum adding the last two votes.  When they know there's a cop out there who might reveal an investigatory result if they don't end the day prematurely.  And especially when one of the scums (Axxle) has already voted for you previously in the day, and thus is just "going back to" his original "read."
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1466 on: November 30, 2012, 06:30:17 pm »


Apart from M1 - where the counterclaimer was the person who was already exposed and caught guilty - name 1 case where this is a valid comparison

There are multiple examples of an investigator claiming, without any duress, and being exactly what they said they were.  Your own uber-Cop/Tracker turns in RMM-I and Mystery Mafia, for example.

If you're asking, "Where is there another case of an investigator claiming, not announcing the results of their investigation, and then someone counterclaiming" - no, I don't think there are any comparators in f:DS history, with either the claimant being town OR the claimant being scum.  It hasn't happened before.  O suggested it in Hydra (where it was manifestly NOT what happened in Hydra), and that suggestion resonated with me as the right way to play it here, to draw out the scum. 
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1467 on: November 30, 2012, 06:46:50 pm »


Apart from M1 - where the counterclaimer was the person who was already exposed and caught guilty - name 1 case where this is a valid comparison

There are multiple examples of an investigator claiming, without any duress, and being exactly what they said they were.  Your own uber-Cop/Tracker turns in RMM-I and Mystery Mafia, for example.

If you're asking, "Where is there another case of an investigator claiming, not announcing the results of their investigation, and then someone counterclaiming" - no, I don't think there are any comparators in f:DS history, with either the claimant being town OR the claimant being scum.  It hasn't happened before.  O suggested it in Hydra (where it was manifestly NOT what happened in Hydra), and that suggestion resonated with me as the right way to play it here, to draw out the scum.

I was never counter claimed
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1468 on: November 30, 2012, 06:51:29 pm »


Apart from M1 - where the counterclaimer was the person who was already exposed and caught guilty - name 1 case where this is a valid comparison

There are multiple examples of an investigator claiming, without any duress, and being exactly what they said they were.  Your own uber-Cop/Tracker turns in RMM-I and Mystery Mafia, for example.

If you're asking, "Where is there another case of an investigator claiming, not announcing the results of their investigation, and then someone counterclaiming" - no, I don't think there are any comparators in f:DS history, with either the claimant being town OR the claimant being scum.  It hasn't happened before.  O suggested it in Hydra (where it was manifestly NOT what happened in Hydra), and that suggestion resonated with me as the right way to play it here, to draw out the scum.

I was never counter claimed

I understand that.  That's why I went into my second paragraph, noting that the exact scenario we have here in this game hasn't come up in any other f:DS game to date.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1469 on: November 30, 2012, 06:54:54 pm »

Man! This game has just flown.

I have read every post via e-mail, some of that gets lost in the translation.... the quoting system it uses is pretty bad and it can be hard to tell who is saying what sometimes.

But for now. I feel confident in voting qvist. I won't now because apparently we aren't to that point quite yet.

This is based off.

1. my own reads prior to the claims
2. Volt's explanation regarding why he claimed when he did, resonates with me
3. Qvist's reaction

This is not based off at all on the timing of qvists posts. I have said before that I often look at the who's online page for my own curiosity, but I don't think it should be used to determine alignment, just because it isn't a reliable way to indicate what a person is actually doing online. (For example as I wrote this post, I did a handful of other things... checking e-mail, talking to wife, getting food).

If I had to pick who Qvist's scummate is I would lean toward Axxle, but I could see it being ashersky as well. I highly doubt an ashersky/volt pairing (due to the jot/ash/volt all being on my wagon) and have a hard time seeing volt/Axxle as well. I am town, Frisk is town and I think TheMunch is town. As a result I have to think qvist is scum and it is either axxle or ash as the partner.

When can I vote?
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1470 on: November 30, 2012, 07:09:40 pm »

I would say at least wait for CF to speak his peace.  But seriously I cant emotionally take another day of this.  We need to lynch someone so my brain doesn't explode.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1471 on: November 30, 2012, 07:12:43 pm »

So, amount the peanut gallery - we have 3 for volt, and 1 for qvist.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1472 on: November 30, 2012, 07:13:11 pm »

Yuma for qvist, everyone else for volt?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1473 on: November 30, 2012, 07:14:18 pm »

vote: axxle

I think volt can explain why
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 3 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #1474 on: November 30, 2012, 07:14:40 pm »

So, amount the peanut gallery - we have 3 for volt, and 1 for qvist.

who is who? or rather who are the 3? Qvist, axxle and ash? What do you have to say?
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