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Author Topic: Mafia XV - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS  (Read 159923 times)

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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #750 on: November 20, 2012, 06:20:29 pm »

yuma, why do you have a townread on Axxle?

there have been a couple of things

- i think it was you that pointed out that mafia axxle would have been unlikely to lurk the way he did earlier. I agree with that

 - Part of it is certainly that he has a town read on me and didn't push my wagon off the cliff when he could have, although I do suspect others because of that.

 - And I think the way that he came up with a town read on me was very town, going back and analyzing whether or not my explanation for the hammer was credible or not. Everyone else just assumed I was lying or telling the truth, he researched it. Scum Axxle could have just said "I think yuma is scum" or "I think yuma is town" But axxle backed his up with work. That is more town to me.

The ironic thing is that... while I don't find your reasons for seeing Axxle as town tremendously convincing...

This post reads genuine enough to make me a lot more convinced about you (yuma) being town.

Unvote.

This post reads genuine enough to make me a lot more convinced about you (Voltgloss) being town...
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #751 on: November 20, 2012, 06:26:10 pm »

Jot: 276 scummy vibe out of Qvist's post.
jot: 280 suspsicious of frisk for a mass claim suggestion
jot 284 votes Grujah/volt for lurking
jot 312 votes yuma following volt's case
jot 394 expresses suspicion of eevee
jot 454 expresses scum read on eevee, again? I think.
jot 516 has no opinion on ashersky
666 jot; torn on yuma read
693 jot: ash is an acceptable lynch, but worried that it is lead by eevee, yuma
710 jot: will vote elsewhere if yuma isn't lynched when he comes back
Still want to lynch this guy.

ash 288 votes frisk for a "whoops I didn't know setup" mistake
ash 313 votes yuma see above, still suspicious of frisk
ash 431 votes yuma because nothing has changed since he last unvoted and unvotes in 433
559 ash votes yuma to put him back to L-1
619 ash says he is willing to vote for frisk and themunch but not eevee or voltgloss
Still also fine with ashersky.

Also worth noting, Volt has said surprisingly litter after his yuma case that's now dying down.

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #752 on: November 20, 2012, 06:30:16 pm »

Eevee, can you please summarize the case on joth? 
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #753 on: November 20, 2012, 06:39:28 pm »

First of all, most of these things can be explained otherwise as well. Remember I know I'm town and consider yuma to be town as well. Also have lighter town reads on Munch and then Voltgloss, and give Axxle some credit for the things yuma just mentioned. So approaching these from the point of view I arrived in with process of elimination:

Jot: 276 scummy vibe out of Qvist's post. - I still also suspect Qvist, saying he got a "scummy vibe" could be a handy way of getting interactions with your scum buddy. He never follows up on qvist as far as i can tell.
jot: 280 suspsicious of frisk for a mass claim suggestion - I dont think this warrants any suspicion, wishywashy
jot 284 votes Grujah/volt for lurking - I dont remember how excessive said lurking was, but wouldnt be the first time mafia tries to buld a wagon on a townie when they give (more or less) legit reasons for it.
jot 312 votes yuma following volt's case - Same here, happy to wagon on someone I think is town.
jot 394 expresses suspicion of eevee - I was defending yuma heavily, some people like munch seemed interest in killing me.
jot 454 expresses scum read on eevee, again? I think.
jot 516 has no opinion on ashersky - wouldnt want to get his scumbuddy lynched
666 jot; torn on yuma read
693 jot: ash is an acceptable lynch, but worried that it is lead by eevee, yuma - again, consider this from my view point. I'm town and I think yuma is town (and I think joth and asher are scum together with a good probability)
710 jot: will vote elsewhere if yuma isn't lynched when he comes back


Okay, writing that post felt kind of stupid, because it looks like I'm saying joth is scum because I think he is scum. Process of elimination and the fact he plays like I'd expect scum to play and isn't giving me any town vibes + the fact that his positions regarding other players seem scummy to me (is suspecting guys I think are town, is suspecting guys I think are mafia but not following up on it or not suspecting them at all) is the reason for my suspicion in a nutshell.

Vote: jotheonah
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #754 on: November 20, 2012, 08:21:21 pm »

as promised, Vote: Eevee

Thanks for making the choice between you and ashersky really easy.

inb4 someone asks for my case on Eevee and/or accuses me of OMGUS: He's almost single-handedly responsible for stopping the yuma wagon in its tracks and he generally seems WAY too sure yuma is town with no evidence, and in spite of evidence to the contrary. I have been expressing a scum read on him all along.

He just made a long case on me with virtually no content, basically just reposting yuma's suspicion list and adding "because he's scum" to the end of everything I do. Pretty lazy.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #755 on: November 20, 2012, 08:25:52 pm »

I'm somewhat happy to let these smart people flesh out which of me or joth seem more likely to be mafia. Just remember, some of the guys "pondering this dilemma" are actually joth's scumbuddies. Other than that, I really think you are going to make the right call.

Okay, happy might be a strong word, but I do like this better than the previous situation where the only other guy with votes on was yuma.

I know I've ridiculed others for certainty like this earlier, but I really am willing to gamble the game on Joth being scum in this case.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #756 on: November 20, 2012, 08:29:58 pm »

this is unfortunate timing as the next week is not going to be good for access for me. I will try to be around.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #757 on: November 20, 2012, 08:31:36 pm »

Btw, joth is once again "expressing suspicion" on someone I think has a good chance of being his scumbuddy, without actually following through with it. Like how awfully convenient it is that all your actions with guys I think are likely to be mafia are like that (town reads or scum reads you don't back up with a vote).
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #758 on: November 20, 2012, 08:31:56 pm »

Joth, do you see any scenario where I'm town?
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #759 on: November 20, 2012, 08:39:02 pm »

joth, which do you think is more likely and why:

1.  Eevee/yuma scumteam
2.  town yuma + scum Eevee

Eevee, which do you think is more likely and why:

1.  joth/ash scumteam
2.  scum joth + town ash
3.  town joth + scum ash
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #760 on: November 20, 2012, 08:44:44 pm »

Joth and ash are my two biggest individual scum reads (individual = based on their own play alone, without considering their interactions) and their interactions together support them being from the same scum team very well. So, calling scum pairs here, I think them both being scum is the most likely scenario. I would say scum joth + town ash is slightly more likely than the other way around, but that is not a distinction I'm super comfortable making.

It's weird, town Eevee isn't usually this crazy confident. Maybe the blitz games have me all riled up or something. Going to be a big lesson in humility if joth gets lynched and flips town.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #761 on: November 20, 2012, 09:29:34 pm »

Yes, yes it will.

Volt: The #1 scummy thing Eevee has done is thrown the brakes on the yuma lynch. As scum, that's a very gutsy thing to do. Almost unbelievably gutsy.

If they're both scum, he's done it to save his partner, which is crazy because it ties them together in a very bad way. It's possible though. After all, it's almost working. Remember, scum just has to push for a couple mislynches to win, so maybe Eevee figured it was worth the risk if #3 is still flying under the radar. (Much like Robz and I blatantly outing ourselves but keeping FTL covered in Resistance IV).

But if yuma's town it's more interesting. In that case, this has been a bid by scumEevee to gain major town cred by halting a wagon he knows is bad. In that case he was probably hoping the yuma wagon would go through anyway, but he did his job too well.

So to answer your question, I don't know. Either seems plausible, but I like the both scum theory a bit better.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #762 on: November 20, 2012, 10:09:17 pm »

Interesting developments here...

I am going to have to mull this over and take a closer look at both. Of all the people off my wagon eevee was in the middle. And of all the people on my wagon jot was also toward the middle.

I think I still prefer an ash or a qvist lynch over either of these two, but will take a closer look.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #763 on: November 21, 2012, 07:32:18 am »

]I'm feeling very good about there being one scum in Eevee/Joth.  Most likely joth.

Vote: Joth
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #764 on: November 21, 2012, 08:37:45 am »

I'm going to need to reread Joth - but I am strongly considering Joth.  Note - this does not clear eevee imho.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #765 on: November 21, 2012, 08:48:29 am »

I have been finding my reads incredibly similar to Joth.  I feel like I wont like this game if Joth flips scum just as much as the game where Yuma flips town...
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #766 on: November 21, 2012, 08:50:58 am »

I have been finding my reads incredibly similar to Joth.  I feel like I wont like this game if Joth flips scum just as much as the game where Yuma flips town...

2 players having the same reads doesn't mean that they are the same alignment.

Yuma and I got into trouble in M8 because we were basically writing the same posts.

Yuma was town, I was not, and surprisingly, this wasn't advanced scum play on my part.  I just read and commented on things I felt were scummy, without going overboard on my mates.
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #767 on: November 21, 2012, 08:54:03 am »

I have been finding my reads incredibly similar to Joth.  I feel like I wont like this game if Joth flips scum just as much as the game where Yuma flips town...

2 players having the same reads doesn't mean that they are the same alignment.

Yuma and I got into trouble in M8 because we were basically writing the same posts.

Yuma was town, I was not, and surprisingly, this wasn't advanced scum play on my part.  I just read and commented on things I felt were scummy, without going overboard on my mates.

That makes me feel better.  I mean I would like to think that my reads are my own and I've come to the conclusions I have independently and joth just happens to feel the same way.  Then my mind starts thinking of the posibility that if Joth is scum hes just pushing my bad reads, making me feel more confident in them intentionally... Man, the ways that you can doubt yourself in this game...
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #768 on: November 21, 2012, 09:58:14 am »

Joth v. Eevee gives me a weird vibe because of how effectively it's diverted everyone's attention from ash.  I'm not sure what to conclude from that yet.

I need to reread two specific things:
1.  How ash's play this game compares to his scumplay in MXIV
2.  Who, and how, joth tried to convince to join the yuma wagon
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #769 on: November 21, 2012, 10:03:27 am »

1. Captain_Frisk - 97
2. jotheonah - 71
4. Eevee - 88
5. Grujah - Voltgloss Replaced - 60
6. Axxle - 64
8. yuma -103
10. ashersky - 42
11. QVist - 38
12. TheMunch - 80

So lurkers:

{Qvist, Asher}

Cross reference with my list of people I suspect per #644

 {joth, axxle, eevee, ashersky, voltgloss}

Vote: Ashersky
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TheMunch

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #770 on: November 21, 2012, 10:12:52 am »

I dont think I'm comfortable with lynching Ashersky.  His return felt very similar to his last day in MXIII.  I really want to reread Ash when he did post earlier (cause one post is not enough to go on) and see if this correlates with how he was playing in MXIII.  That being said, Ash's comeback post said he didn't want to get mislynched for lurking and followed it up with "I've already said my reads, I stand by them."  I'm not particularly going to hold that against him as my reads haven't changed all too much today, however, I think there was a lot that happened while he was away and he didn't really comment on any of it.  I dont necessarily think this is particularly scummy, just really bad play.

So that being said I have some questions for Ashersky:
What do you think of CF's "lynch my short list"?
What do you think of Eevee's immediate vote for you following that proposal?
Some have developed town reads on Yuma while you were gone, such as volt; has Yuma's responses give you a stronger or weaker scum read on him?
Which do you think is the strongest case on Eevee?
You share my reads on Eevee/Yuma; do you have any thoughts on who the final scum is?

As I reread more of ashersky I might come up with more questions; this just seems to be relevant discussion he did not participate in.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #771 on: November 21, 2012, 10:26:31 am »

Munch, you are asking Ash all these questions, why is 'what do you think of eevee vs joth' not one of them?
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #772 on: November 21, 2012, 10:27:13 am »

Munch, you are asking Ash all these questions, why is 'what do you think of eevee vs joth' not one of them?

I can field this one:

TheMunch / Ashersky / Joth scum trio!
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #773 on: November 21, 2012, 10:27:43 am »

Munch, you are asking Ash all these questions, why is 'what do you think of eevee vs joth' not one of them?

I can field this one:

TheMunch / Ashersky / Joth scum trio!

The only problem with this is that the munch should be in favor of my plan if this is the case, not opposed.
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Qvist

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Re: Mafia XV - Day 2 - Spec QT available w/mini game
« Reply #774 on: November 21, 2012, 10:45:28 am »

Sorry for all the lurking, I had not much time.
The game really gives me a headache. The longer I think about it the more everybody looks scummy.
So I'm not sure about the yuma vs. Eevee / Captain_Frisk dilemma, I'm still trying to figure that out.
I'm trying to get a better picture of all of you, but the problem is:

I still have no read on Axxle and it seems that most of you don't have a read neither. He had a lot of one-liners in his post.
Axxle, could you clarify your position in more detail?
What do you think of the yuma wagon?
I a similar way I like to hear more from ashersky as well.
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