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[O]

vote: Theorel

I think this is where i'll keep it for the rest of the day.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Robz

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-12

O (1): theorel
Grujah (3): Cuzz, Robz888, Insomniac
Insomniac (1): Grujah
theorel (1): O
Robz888 (1): jotheonah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

vote: Theorel

I think this is where i'll keep it for the rest of the day.

Strong reasoning and general pro-town behavior from you as usual.

[Cuzz]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

[sparky5856]

This is not easy. >_<

Heck, the more I think about it the more it sounds like very solid scum strategy.

If him and Cuzz are scumteam - it's kinda unintuitive to do it on a partner first, but not that unbelieveable at all, a bus and such. If we both are doctor by change he has just pulled the best mafia move on f.ds history.


Uuuuugh... hate to do it, Vote: Insomniac

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.

See this is what I mean by all over the map. As for his case on Insomniac, I dunno. I haven't gotten much of a read on him as of late, but his read depends on Cuzz being scum, which I and no one else believes now.

And what's with all this voting for no given reasons? We'll never reach a majority that way.

Unfortunately most of you are not here during the weekend when I'm at my prime level of activity >_<

[jotheonah]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

If Cuzz and Grujah are both telling the truth, which actually seems very possible, than the person who drove the wagons on both of them is without a doubt Robz. I think I abandoned my old read too soon.

[Robz888]

Okay, I looked over the setup info again. Because now we have a lot of info relating to the JK9++ setup. Remember that you pick 7 random numbers between 0 and 100, and all the ones that come out less than 50 end up town. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

If Grujah and Cuzz are both Doctors, we must have a Jailkeeper. There is no way to generate a two Doctor scenario without a Jailkeeper. So let's say that's what he have. That takes up 3 of our 7. We also have a Hider and a Vigilante (Eevee and ashersky, confirmed). That's 5 out of 7.

So there are possibly 2 more roles out there, but that would have meant the setup flipped heads (rather than tales) 7 times in a row. Which is certainly possible, though not the most likely thing, strictly speaking.

I'm not sure where this is going, I guess. Also, I don't know why O is voting for Theorel, and I don't know why Jo is voting for me again.

[Robz888]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

If Cuzz and Grujah are both telling the truth, which actually seems very possible, than the person who drove the wagons on both of them is without a doubt Robz. I think I abandoned my old read too soon.

I'm positive Cuzz is telling the truth, I'm much less sure Grujah is, but as you say it's possible... if there's a Jailkeeper.

I certainly drove the wagon on both of them, but I could have hardly guessed they would turn out to be doctors. And I am far from convinced that Grujah actually is a Doctor.

[sparky5856]

Here's what bothers me: what are the odds that, in a game with two doctors, they both were forced to claim right after the other?

[Robz888]

Here's what bothers me: what are the odds that, in a game with two doctors, they both were forced to claim right after the other?

Well, I mean that's not an "odds" thing, that's just bad luck. I see what you mean that it seems like unlikely bad luck, but bad luck still.

[Cuzz]

Here's what I find interesting: Me and Grujah both got to L-1 with the exact same wagon, just with Grujah on mine and vice versa. I really do have a town read on Robz now, for reasons I've mentioned before, but now especially after he went out of his way to defend my claim with more evidence than I gave. I mean, if Robz is scum, then he's a scum wizard to pull that move. So I am (still) suspicious of Frisk and Insomniac.

I am not entirely convinced by Grujah's claim for now, and since Frisk unvoted he's at L-2 so I'm ok keeping my vote there. His claim was weird in that it didn't look like he had read my claim at the time. I'm not sure if that makes him look better or worse: on the one hand scum would probably have been much more careful to know exactly what had been going on before fakeclaiming, but on the other hand he might have just panicked and claimed quickly, and doc is a PR fakeclaim with a low chance of backfiring immediately.

Remember, if there is 1 doctor (which there is), then there is an 11% chance of there being multiple doctors. And as Robz said, there must also be a Jailkeeper. It's also odd that Grujah really still doesn't believe my claim, since I seem to have done enough to convince everyone else.

[jotheonah]

Ok, don't jump on me here, but here's an idea.

If there must be a Jailkeeper for there to be two Doctors, shall we just ask the JK to claim?

If no one claims, we know either Cuzz or Grujah is scum.

If a JK claims, then it's very possible we have two doctors. With 2 doctors and a JK, we have a very good chance of saving some of those 3 power roles through night action WIFOM.

This falls under theory stuff that I'm usually bad at, so I want to hear what other people think.
I want a town consensus before any actual claiming happens.

[Robz888]

Ok, don't jump on me here, but here's an idea.

If there must be a Jailkeeper for there to be two Doctors, shall we just ask the JK to claim?

If no one claims, we know either Cuzz or Grujah is scum.

If a JK claims, then it's very possible we have two doctors. With 2 doctors and a JK, we have a very good chance of saving some of those 3 power roles through night action WIFOM.

This falls under theory stuff that I'm usually bad at, so I want to hear what other people think.
I want a town consensus before any actual claiming happens.

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

[Robz888]

Even so, it might not be so bad. If we want to essentially role the dice, we would be getting close to the point where we have so may named townies we can use process of elimination.

Other possible plans are killing Grujah, the more likely liar, and if he flips Doctor, there IS a Jailkeeper to possibly protect Cuzz or WIFOM.

Or we leave Grujah and Cuzz alive with orders to always protect each other. Of course there are those damn strongman kills, right?

[Robz888]

I probably lean toward thinking the Jailkeeper should step forward. And then we will have a lot of tangible info and hopefully can spot a liar, or acquit three people.

[jotheonah]

doc-JK can't mutually protect. Because JK keeps the doctor from doctoring.

But two doctors can mutually protect.

[Robz888]

doc-JK can't mutually protect. Because JK keeps the doctor from doctoring.

But two doctors can mutually protect.

I know they can't, but if there is a JK and he keeps silent, he can protect Cuzz.

[sparky5856]

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

Protection Roles
P = Doctor OR Jailkeeper (50/50 chance of either)
PP = Jailkeeper, Doctor
PPP = Jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor
PPPP = jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor, Doctor

Isn't it possible for there to be a jailkeeper with only one doctor or am I missing something? Even if one was lying, there's still no certainty whether or not there's a jailkeeper. So, the mafia take a gamble with claiming JK no matter what.

[Robz888]

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

Protection Roles
P = Doctor OR Jailkeeper (50/50 chance of either)
PP = Jailkeeper, Doctor
PPP = Jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor
PPPP = jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor, Doctor

Isn't it possible for there to be a jailkeeper with only one doctor or am I missing something? Even if one was lying, there's still no certainty whether or not there's a jailkeeper. So, the mafia take a gamble with claiming JK no matter what.

Oh, you're right. Well, that was stupid of me.

So yeah, I think our Jailkeeper should likely claim then.

[jotheonah]

Shall we popcorn claim JK or not JK? That way we can make our scummiest players go first.

[Robz888]

Shall we popcorn claim JK or not JK? That way we can make our scummiest players go first.

I don't know what you mean, but I take it you want me to go first, which is fine.

Are we playing like the game popcorn? Like I say, "I'm not the Jailkeeper. Popcorn O."

And then O does it?

[jotheonah]

Actually I was thinking that, but popcorn is not the way to go. We need to have the people the town thinks are scummiest go first.

If there's one person everyone trusts that's the easiest. Otherwise, I guess we should all make a list and average them? Go in order of most to fewest votes? Since Cuzz and Gru have claimed already, the people that need to are:

Robz
O
Insomniac
theorel
sparky
jotheonah

My list, scummiest to towniest, goes:

O
Robz
theorel
sparky
insom
jo

[Robz888]

Actually I was thinking that, but popcorn is not the way to go. We need to have the people the town thinks are scummiest go first.

If there's one person everyone trusts that's the easiest. Otherwise, I guess we should all make a list and average them? Go in order of most to fewest votes? Since Cuzz and Gru have claimed already, the people that need to are:

Robz
O
Insomniac
theorel
sparky
jotheonah

My list, scummiest to towniest, goes:

O
Robz
theorel
sparky
insom
jo

You missed Frisk (telling?), but anyway I'm not sure this part of it matters soooo much. I'm not even really sure I can order people that neatly. Well, I suppose I can try. How about this:

Frisk
theorel
sparky
Insomniac
O
Jotheonah
Robz (although I am fine with going first, and expect to)

Fake FOS to Jo for suggesting more time-wasting nonsense. We have to get on with this already.

[O]

I'm not the jailkeeper.
If I'm scummiest as supposed I should claim first, right?