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Author Topic: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (THE GAME IS OVER: MAFIA WINS!!)  (Read 155935 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #725 on: September 28, 2012, 09:36:27 pm »

damn town is lousy with doctors.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #726 on: September 28, 2012, 09:37:47 pm »

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #727 on: September 28, 2012, 09:47:40 pm »

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #728 on: September 28, 2012, 09:51:23 pm »

Oh god. Another double doctor dilemma. I out for a while, but Gurkha I think I likely a liar maybe? I will have to re read. They might both be telling the truth but that seems unlikely to me.
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #729 on: September 28, 2012, 09:55:00 pm »

Where are theorel and sparky?

I saw theorel lurking the thread earlier.

Yes, I've been trying to keep up.  Alright, stream-of-consciousness incoming.

I feel a little lost for the moment....let's see:
Insomniac doesn't seem different at all to me.  I think he reads town for that reason, not because he's been nicer or anything (as at least Frisk has suggested).  To clarify (although I said differently day1) I don't actually think Insomniac is snarky, he's just aggressively defensive.  He seems to always be ready to accuse anyone who accuses him.  His arguments are bad, or made up, but the way they come so readily really makes him seem scummy (to me), like he's a constant source of OMGUS.  When no one suspects him, he seems much better at really considering various options and making good analysis.  I hope he can maintain that if he comes under real suspicion.

In this game, I think his responses to suspicion have been as aggressive as ever, but he's not taking major suspicion.  Probably because he didn't lynch pps.  As long as I think O is scum, I don't see it as necessary that any of the non-pps voters are scum.  IF O is actually somehow town, then it's possible that sparky and Insomniac are both town, but I can see them being scum in that case.  Actually, I would probably be suspicious of Insomniac who may have hoped to get town-cred and throw major suspicion on O's wagon if he flipped town, and if he believed O's wagon would go through without support.  I feel like it's a better explanation than the mysterious town-read, but whatever, I feel like I'm playing a different game than everyone else, which is normally how I feel.

Anyways, those are my random thoughts of the moment.
Let's see, the pps wagon was composed of:
Robz, joth, Frisk, Cuzz, Grujah, cayvie, and O.
Cuzz is doc (seems reasonable enough)
cayvie's dead.
I think there is at least one scum among O, Insomniac, and sparky (with O being the major top-choice for me there)
Then there should be 2 scum among: Robz, joth, Grujah, and Frisk. (Assuming Cuzz is in fact doc, we're guaranteed 3 mafia.  So, I'm supposing there is only one scum among O, Insom and sparky)

Well, there are only so many combos there.
Robz seems town, because he seems to be playing a generally pro-town game.  He's also much more driving discussion (as compared to scum-Robz in MVIII, could be to throw us off, could be because he's town)

joth seems town because he's being a little jumpy with his vote, which is how town-joth usually plays (at least MII and MIV)
Have we ever seen mafia-joth?  I know he was SK in III, but I didn't really follow that game well enough at the beginning.

Grujah-I excused his lurking day1 given his real-life predicament.  He's posted more today, some of substance.  He was scum in another unmentionable game, which may have impacted his play.  Certainly more suspicious to me than either of the previous two.  He's the current lynch target.  I'd be willing to hammer him, but only after everyone's said their peace.

Frisk-I dunno, he seems less abrasive to me this game.  More like SK-Frisk of MIV than the mafia Frisk's of VI and VIII.  Although he seems less pro-town than he seemed to me in IV.  But, if he's not scum then a previous supposition is incorrect.

So, given that, I'm somewhat more suspicious of joth, because I'm not convinced that it's "town-joth" and not just joth's style.  OTOH, that would pretty probably mean that O is not scum (although it could be a bus).  So, that should bring some focus back to Insom/sparky.  Anyways, this problem-space is too large to exhaust...and I'm not sure how beneficial it would be.

PPE: and Grujah has also claimed doctor, eh?  Hmm...I think there's more to say on that.
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #730 on: September 28, 2012, 10:00:02 pm »

Okay, so double-doctor claim, and some notes.  The following are direct implications if both doctor claims are true:
1. This can only happen if we have a jailkeeper also.
2. With 2 other roles, we would have rolled 5 PRs on the 7 rolls.  That leaves a MAX of 2 unclaimed roles.
3. We are guaranteed to have a mafia JOAT and 1-shot bus driver in the game.  Which in particular means at least 1 shot which can bypass protection.  And a one-shot roleblock that can prevent protection.

Anything we might want to do in the face of the double claim should take those things into account.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #731 on: September 28, 2012, 10:01:33 pm »

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.

Heh, as I've said "Whaoh, 3 pages'". Didn't even know you were at L-1 and claimed. We both being Doc is not impossible but VERY unlikely, (I'll trust your numbers, at least). So I am very happy with my vote where it is.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #732 on: September 28, 2012, 10:01:48 pm »

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #733 on: September 28, 2012, 10:02:33 pm »

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.

Heh, as I've said "Whaoh, 3 pages'". Didn't even know you were at L-1 and claimed. We both being Doc is not impossible but VERY unlikely, (I'll trust your numbers, at least). So I am very happy with my vote where it is.

Cuzz's claim is essentially demonstrably true tho
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #734 on: September 28, 2012, 10:02:48 pm »

N1 I protected Insomniac as he wasn't scummy and is prone to dying N1.

Slightly intoxicated.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #735 on: September 28, 2012, 10:04:40 pm »

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #736 on: September 28, 2012, 10:06:02 pm »

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.

U r right, I'm sorry. A bit drunk.
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #737 on: September 28, 2012, 10:07:30 pm »

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.

U r right, I'm sorry. A bit drunk.

That makes all of us then.
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sparky5856

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #738 on: September 28, 2012, 10:33:32 pm »

PROD CONFiRMED

I do owe everyone an apology for not being here. Unfortunately real life has to come first. Thursdays and Fridays are when I'm scheduled for my part time job, plus I have a lot of school on Thursday.

But enough ranting about my personal life. I need to play the game. I haven't seen if I had any votes yet, let me read the thread to check out the major action.
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sparky5856

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #739 on: September 28, 2012, 11:39:44 pm »

So I'm gonna be speaking with a fresh mind after not playing the game for a while. So, what I say might not be in line with what I've said before. Honestly, I think my playstyle of typing big posts and not posting much is a poor one. I think that I'm too specific and rant-prone in my posts, which all leads to disorganized thoughts.

So the major post that bothered me is this one:

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

Quick question: What does PPE mean? I AM a newbie at mafia apparently >_<

Anyway, he mentions me here. But he doesn't mention me again until #726. Wouldn't that be under the spectrum of "missing me"? If you want people to check me and they don't, you need to PUSH your thoughts. Bringing up #726 for reference:

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.

He's all over the radar here with his scumreads. Right now, "probable" scum reads aren't good, I would much prefer "certain" scum reads, given our position at the moment. Not much room for error.

And yeah, the fact that the two "doctors" are head-to-head against each other makes me think one of them is lying. In MIX mafia (I reference that a lot don't I. That's because that's the only game I've completed so far. Experience is a virtue.) the second doctor to claim was the one to lie. (There was a third claim of doctor too and he ABSOLUTELY lied.) Makes me think that the reason they do so is to push more suspicion on the doc who claimed already. Which Grujah is doing.

I'm inclined to believe Grujah is lying. Cuzz's claim is more believeable (#689, #695).

L-1? I'm not hammering. I want everyone to realize that I'm here now and give feedback to me.

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sparky5856

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #740 on: September 28, 2012, 11:41:37 pm »

And Robz, can you give me a quote or a summary of the scum newbie post you think I so clearly emulated? (how's this for artificially upping my post count?)

 ;D
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #741 on: September 29, 2012, 12:01:39 am »

PPE means post preview edit (i think), basically, after you post, and you get the warning that X new posts have appeared.  You haven't posted yet, and you might want to ammend based on what you've now read, but are too lazy.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #742 on: September 29, 2012, 12:03:34 am »

Or maybe Pre Post Edit?  as in an edit you are doing pre posting?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #743 on: September 29, 2012, 12:05:05 am »

PPE means post preview edit (i think), basically, after you post, and you get the warning that X new posts have appeared.  You haven't posted yet, and you might want to ammend based on what you've now read, but are too lazy.

I've taken it to mean "pre post edit"
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #744 on: September 29, 2012, 12:05:25 am »

I'm not sure that grujah's breadcrumb is really compelling to me.

Do we really believe we have double doctors?

Unvote for discussion
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #745 on: September 29, 2012, 01:06:41 am »

This is a good game.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #746 on: September 29, 2012, 03:13:01 am »

If Grujah is telling the truth and Cuzz is lying, the mafia deserve to beat us. I urge a Grujah lynch. That is all.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #747 on: September 29, 2012, 03:59:48 am »

Ok, up and of clearer head.

@sparky
I was going do focus on you next, after Cuzz, but didn't get around it yet. Yes, my reads are all over, and have been most D2, I am not always as good as in MIX which was my prime, but I did pin Cuzz as scum, and he turned out to (very likely) be one. I've skipped 3 pages before writing this and didn't pick up his claim before I''ve made that post. With it, and with very low chances* of both of our claims being true, he just gets up to very top. But if I die now hat will be obvious anyway.



@General
You've guys have again done the thing that makes me say that forced claims are stupid. Somebody claims L-1 and you all unvote. It's too easy for scum to fake this, he gets town cred, it brings out other claims, it sucks.

My claim by itself was stupid, and I almost didn't do it, but due to events in another game which I cannot discuss, I though non claiming was even stupider due to bad meta going around here. It turned out fine as it counterclaimed a liar, which is good and I would actually condone such a claim, but that was uninentional at original posting.


@Cuzz's post -
Meh, he "crumbed" a any-role crumb. I targeted a Hider so I didn't get anything"- anyrole fits that.
Also FoSing everybody who doesn't believe him even though they do not have any substantial proof to do so.. Meh, dunno if you are trying to scare people into unvoting of faking mad, panicking townie.

*
PPPKHXX gets it, but with only 50% chance.
PPPKKHX gets it, and if X is T than there is only one more Townie, if X is non-T there is SK.
Suck at calculating these.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #748 on: September 29, 2012, 04:06:42 am »

Waaaaaiiittt a minute there.

Is Insomniac going around L-1ing and forcing claims out, all aloud?

Thats so freaking too much anti-town. I might have been so wrong about him.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #749 on: September 29, 2012, 04:25:34 am »

Heck, the more I think about it the more it sounds like very solid scum strategy.

If him and Cuzz are scumteam - it's kinda unintuitive to do it on a partner first, but not that unbelieveable at all, a bus and such. If we both are doctor by change he has just pulled the best mafia move on f.ds history.


Uuuuugh... hate to do it, Vote: Insomniac
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