Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Voltgloss]

Welcome to Mafia XII: A Fistful Of Waffles!

Spectator thread QT available on request - please PM me and I will send you the link.  Thanks!

The Game Is Over.  Mafia Wins!!
Players Signed Up:
1 - ashersky (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Noble Brigand)
2 - Robz888 (endgamed; Town Cartographer)
3 - Eevee (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Tunneler)
4 - Captain_Frisk (DEAD; killed Night 2 - Town Duchess)
5 - cayvie (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Border Villager)
6 - sparky5856 (DEAD, but WINNER!!; lynched Day 2 - Mafia Highwayman)
7 - jotheonah (DEAD; lynched Day 3 - Town Border Villager)
8 - Insomniac (WINNER!!; Mafia Jack of all Trades)
9 - Grujah (WINNER!!; Mafia Schemer)
10 - Cuzz (endgamed; Town Oracle)
11 - pingpongsam (DEAD; lynched Day 1 - Town Border Villager)
12 - O (DEAD; killed Night 3 - Town Border Villager)
13 - theorel (DEAD; lynched Day 4 - Town Border Villager)

Backup Mod:  yuma

Mafia Ruleset (REVISIONS IN RED)

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it.  Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline (generally 48 hours from Night start during the first few Nights; later Nights may have shorter deadlines).  If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions.  In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate.  Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax!  Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
8. Do not edit or delete posts.  We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
9. This game will have "bankable deadlines."  See http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bankable_deadline.  The rules for calculating deadlines are as follows:
- All Days are guaranteed to be at least three days and at most twenty-one days long.
- Day 1 is set to last for twenty-one days.
- Day 2 and each subsequent day will last for:
--- three days, PLUS
--- all unused days left over at the end of the previous Day;
--- up to a maximum of twenty-one days.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement.  A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Helpful Links:

• Main Wiki Page
  
  
• Newbie Guide
  
  
• Frequently Asked Questions
  
  
• Commonly Used Abbreviations
  
  
• Mafia Theory

TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.

ROLES LISTED IN NEXT POST

[Voltgloss]

Game Setup

This game will be semi-open, using the JK9++ setup (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B). 

There will be a total of thirteen players, consisting of:
- between nine and eleven Town players (including between zero and seven power roles);
- two or three Mafia players; and
- zero or one Serial Killer players.

The exact distribution of roles is randomly distributed.  To keep the game balanced, the more power roles there are among the Town players, the more players and/or power roles there are among the anti-Town players. 

All roles have been "reskinned" for Dominion flavor.  This has not substantively changed any of the roles from their normal Mafia versions.  For each role, the "normal" Mafia name is provided in {curly braces}.  A list of all roles potentially in the game, with their "normal" Mafia names provided, follows:

- Town Border Villager {Vanilla}
- Town Cartographer {Tracker}
- Town Stablehand* {1-Shot Tracker}
- Town Oracle {Doctor}
- Town Duchess* {Jailkeeper}
- Town Tunneler* {Hider}
- Town Nomad Camper {1-Shot Commuter}
- Town Margrave {Vengeful}
- Town Noble Brigand {Vigilante}
- Town Innkeeper* {Role Cop}
- Town Trader {Gunsmith}
- Mafia Highwayman {Goon}
- Mafia Schemer* {1-Shot Bus Driver}
- Mafia Jack of all Trades* {JOAT}
- Ill-Gotten Gains* {Serial Killer}

Any of the above-listed roles may be present in the game.  If a role is marked with an asterisk (*) above, there will be NO MORE THAN ONE of these roles in the game.  If a role is NOT marked with an asterisk, then multiple players may have this role.  If a role is not listed above, it will not appear in this game.

The following mechanics rules apply:

- Kill flavor is NOT a clue to the identity of the killer.  Any nightkill may be presented with any flavor, regardless of its source.
- Roles that target another player at night may NOT self-target.
- If an X-Shot ability is roleblocked, one Shot is used up.
- Night actions will be processed in order of "natural action resolution" (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_action_resolution).  This means that:

1.  All actions that cannot possibly be modified by any other actions are resolved FIRST.
2.  After those actions are resolved, step 1 is repeated for any remaining actions, until all actions are resolved.
3.  If there is a loop - e.g., Player X's action affects Player Y's action, which affects Player Z's action, which affects Player X's action - then actions will be resolved in the following order of priority:

- Commuting
- Hiding
- Bus Driving
- Jailkeeping/Roleblocking
- Protecting
- Killing
- Investigating/Tracking

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Town Border Villager {Vanilla}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

This village is dusty, dry, decrepit, and generally depressing.  But out here in the frontier Hinterlands, it's either the village or the desert, and the desert doesn't have plumbing.  So the village it is.  Except now the Mafia are trying to take it for themselves.  Well.  You can't have that.  No special tricks up your sleeve though - except a good supply of hangin' rope and that inviting gallows in the village square.  Maybe that's all you'll need.

You are a Townie, a Border Villager {Vanilla}.

Your weapon is your vote.  You have no night actions.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Cartographer {Tracker}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Trying to map the trackless wastes is a full-time job.  A job you excel at.  Even just finding your way around this rathole of a village is a challenge - a challenge you've mastered.  You know the highways, the byways, and the spyways.  Keeping tabs on your fellow villagers is child's play.  And now that some of them aren't "villagers" at all - it's time to put that skill to good use.

You are a Townie, a Town Cartographer {Tracker}.

Each night, you may track one player in the game.  You will learn who, if anyone, they targeted that night. 
If the person you track is roleblocked, you WILL still learn who they attempted to target.
If the person you track does not target anyone, you will get the result "No One."
If your tracking attempt fails for some reason (e.g., you are roleblocked), you will get "No Result."   

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Stablehand {One-Shot Tracker}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

You've never been good with people, but you're sure good with horses.  Unfortunately most of the time you're dealing with the business end of horses - emphasis on "end."  Being intimately familiar with something most wouldn't want to be intimate with, you do know how to do one useful thing:  recognize who's horse left an incriminating "trail."  It's an inexact science, of course.  But maybe it'll work once - the one time that counts.

You are a Townie, a Town Stablehand {One-Shot Tracker}.

Once at night, you may track one player in the game.  You will learn who, if anyone, they targeted that night. 
If the person you track is roleblocked, you WILL still learn who they attempted to target.
If the person you track does not target anyone, you will get the result "No One."
If your tracking attempt fails for some reason (e.g., you are roleblocked), you will get "No Result."   

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Oracle {Doctor}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

If foreseeing the future were easy, you'd "easily" have avoided ever coming to this awful backwater.  Back-no-water, more like.  But you're here now, and it doesn't take divination to realize that the Mafia taking over is bad for the ol' life expectancy.  Maybe your intervention can help stave off their more nefarious activities.  Time to cast the bones, gut the pigeons, and brew up some good strong leafy tea.  ...What, out of sugar?  Crud.

You are a Townie, a Town Oracle {Doctor}.

Each night, you may protect one player in the game from one nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Duchess {Jailkeeper}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Being the richest woman in town doesn't mean much when all your wealth is tied up in the family land.  Especially when the family land is hundreds of miles away.  But after that unpleasant business with the chauffeur and the goat, you felt it was best to retire for a time to parts unknown.  You succeeded at that - but now there's a more immediate threat.  At least you have a nice big house, with a few nice big servants, and a nice big cellar with nice big sturdy locks on it.  Time to grace that with a few occupants.  Really, it might even be for their own good.

You are a Townie, a Town Duchess {Jailkeeper}.

Each night, you may Jailkeep one player in the game, which will simultaneously protect them from all nightkills and also roleblock them.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Tunneler {Hider}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Years of mining for gold, and what have you got to show for it?  Mild pneumoconiosis, for one.  But for another, strong arms and a pickaxe and the wherewithal to dig your way out of trouble.  And trouble's come a-knockin' today.  Hopefully you can keep one step ahead by, literally, laying low.  And hopefully you won't accidentally tunnel into the Mafia's basement in the middle of a strategy meeting.  Because that... could get awkward.

You are a Townie, a Town Tunneler {Hider}.

Each night, you may choose to Hide behind one player in the game, meaning that:
- any night actions that target you will fail; and
- any night actions that target the player you are Hiding behind will target you as well. 

If you Hide behind a player who is nightkilled, you will also be nightkilled along with them.
If you Hide behind a Mafia or Serial Killer player, you will die.  This death CANNOT be prevented by a Doctor or Jailkeeper.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Nomad Camper {One-Shot Commuter}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Everyone else in the village thinks the desert is death.  Nonsense.  You just need to know which cacti hold drinkable water and which hold hallucinogenic fruit, and which scorpions will kill while others just hurt like a bitch.  Piece of cake for someone with your talents.  Heck, you could probably live off the land for weeks and stay out of this whole Mafia business.  If only you hadn't developed that addiction to pancakes.

You are a Townie, a Town Nomad Camper {One-Shot Commuter}.

Once at night, you may "leave town," meaning that any night actions that target you will fail.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Margrave {Vengeful}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

An honorable warrior is always prepared for battle.  An honorable warrior also never makes the first attack.  That code of honor has proved inconvenient on more than a few occasions, but it's your code of honor and you're gonna live by it.  Or die by it, perhaps.  But if you're gonna die by it, you're not going to go into that dark night alone.  From Hell's heart, you're prepared to stab at thee.  Just have to aim right.

You are a Townie, a Town Margrave {Vengeful}.

You have no night actions.
If you are lynched, you may choose one player to kill during twilight.  This kill cannot be prevented.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Noble Brigand {Vigilante}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

There's no shortage of ruthless highwaymen out in these parts.  You've taken it a step further:  you hunt the hunters.  Between the bounty hunt rewards and the recovered loot, you're able to make a decent living out of death.  The Mafia would put a stop to that though - better to load up your gun and take the fight to them first.  Remember:  when you're going to shoot someone, shoot, don't talk.

You are a Townie, a Town Noble Brigand {Vigilante}.

Each night, you may select one player to nightkill.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Innkeeper {Role Cop}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Just because the village is lawless doesn't mean everyone's a mystery.  Everyone needs a place to sleep, which means everyone in town comes through your doors - and a smart eye and sharp mind can figure out a lot about a person just from the hours they keep and what they order for brunch.  And the shotgun under the counter makes sure that, in your inn, your word IS the law.  Too bad it's not loaded.  Too bad about the Mafia coming.  But if you can't outshoot 'em, maybe you can outthink 'em.  It's worth a shot.  Maybe literally.

You are a Townie, a Town Innkeeper {Role Cop}.

Each night, you may investigate one player and learn their role.  Border Villagers {Town Vanilla} and Highwaymen {Mafia Goon} both return the result "Vanilla."

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Town Trader {Gunsmith}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Supply and demand.  Out here, there's demand for a lot of things:  food, water, indoor plumbing, to name a few.  As for supply?  Well, there's a lot of dirt.  But there's one other supply you've cornered:  weapons.  Seems almost everyone is sporting a piece these days.  Especially the Mafia, of course.  And if there's anyone uniquely positioned to know who's trafficking in munitions these days... it's you.

You are a Townie, a Town Trader {Gunsmith}.

Each night, you may investigate one player and learn if they have a weapon or not.  The following roles have weapons: Innkeeper {Role Cop}, Trader {Gunsmith}, Margrave {Vengeful}, Noble Brigand {Vigilante}, Ill-Gotten Gains {Serial Killer}, and all Mafia roles.

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one Town player alive.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Highwayman {Goon}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

"Your money or your life?"  That's for chumps.  "Your money AND your life," now there's the way to go.  The Mafia taught you that when they contracted your "services" to take over this hellhole.  No idea why they want it.  But you get your cut, and you get to do some cutting, and that's just fine with you.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Highwayman {Goon}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Schemer {One-Shot Bus Driver}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

It's very satisfying to shoot a man.  It's even more satisfying to talk a man into shooting someone they otherwise never would have shot.  That's your shtick, and the Mafia knows skill when they see it.  Time to sow confusion and chaos.  This town's gonna feel like it got run over.  By a bus.

You are Mafia, a Mafia Schemer {One-Shot Bus Driver}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
Once at night, you may target two other players to switch ("bus drive").  Any action performed on one of those players will affect the other instead, and vice versa.  You CAN both bus drive and kill in the same night.  You CANNOT bus drive yourself.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Jack of all Trades {JOAT}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

Exactly what it says on the tin.  You do it all.  The Mafia liked that potential and made you an offer.  You like your Silvers as much as the next man, so you took it.  This week's job:  tame the wild frontier.  By shooting its inhabitants repeatedly in the face.  Works for you!

You are Mafia, a Mafia Jack of all Trades {JOAT}.  Your partner(s) are [Player Name(s)].

During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.
You have the following one-shot JOAT powers.  You can use ONLY ONE of these powers on any given night.
- Once at night, if you make the factional kill, you can make it a Ninja kill.  If you are Tracked that night, it will appear that you did not target anyone.
- Once at night, if you make the factional kill, you can make it a Strongman kill, and it will take place regardless of whether your target is protected or if you are roleblocked.
- Once at night, you may roleblock one player.  You CANNOT use this ability on the same night you perform the factional kill.

You win when the Mafia obtain a majority or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

-----------------------------------------

Ill-Gotten Gains {Serial Killer}
Welcome to Mafia XII!

In life, you'd amassed a staggering fortune in stolen gold and blood money, and cached it away where no one would ever find it.  In death, karma left you haunting that filthy lucre for all eternity.  Boring as sin, at least until that oaf stumbled on your treasure trove.  At least he was weak-willed enough to possess with a minimum of ghostly effort.  Now you've got a new body, and ghostly powers, and an unslakeable thirst to add to your collection.  Of souls.

You are the Ill-Gotten Gains {Serial Killer}.

Pregame you must choose to be either 1-Shot Bulletproof OR have Ninja/Strongman kills.
- If you choose 1-Shot Bulletproof, you will be passively protected from the first nightkill that would otherwise resolve on you. 
- If you choose Ninja/Strongman kills, then your kills will take place regardless of whether your target is protected or if you are roleblocked, and if you are Tracked it will appear that you did not target anyone.

Each night phase, you may select one player to nightkill.

You win when you are the last player alive or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

[ashersky]

/in!!

[Galzria]

/out, but bump to follow. SpecQT please!

[Robz888]

in

[Eevee]

in with joy.

[yuma]

/out i'll back up mod though

[Voltgloss]

/out i'll back up mod though

Excellent! 

[Captain_Frisk]

In

[cayvie]

/in

[sparky5856]

I love fistfuls of waffles. /in

[jotheonah]

I won't miss a Voltgloss game. /in

[Insomniac]

/in

[Voltgloss]

I've added ftl and Grujah to the list as they both signed up in the Mafia Queue thread when this game was first announced.  (Others did too but they've already "in"ed here)

[Dsell]

MAN it sucks to miss a Voltgloss game, but I'm overcommitted as it is. Gimme the QT though.

[Cuzz]

/in if there's still room.

[Voltgloss]

/in if there's still room.

There certainly is.  After Cuzz, there are still two open slots left!

Also:  role PM's have been added to the second post!

[pingpongsam]

/in

Will be on vacation this week but will be posting and reading posts

[ftl]

/out

I'll be in one role madness and one normal game already (Robz's and eHalc's), as well as Resistance, that's enough for me at one time.

[shraeye]

Naw, I can't play 3 at once.

[O]

in

[theorel]

in

[Voltgloss]

And that's 13.  PMs will go out this evening, with gamestart likely for tomorrow morning!

[Eevee]

And that's 13.  PMs will go out this evening, with gamestart likely for tomorrow morning!

Woo! 

[pingpongsam]

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

[Insomniac]

Confirmed role receipt.

[ashersky]

Confirmed.

[Cuzz]

Confirmed

[O]

confirmed

[Voltgloss]

For those who have not yet confirmed - please do so in-thread.  The game will start after at least 12 players have confirmed.

Also, everyone should please read the section on "bankable deadlines" in the intro post.  Marked in red for your convenience!

[cayvie]

confirmed

[theorel]

confirmed

[Robz888]

I did NOT receive my PM.

[sparky5856]

I applaud Robz for his anti-conformist attitudes.

I however DID receive my role, so confirmed for me. Being an anti-conformist is so much cooler though.

[Robz888]

I applaud Robz for his anti-conformist attitudes.

I however DID receive my role, so confirmed for me. Being an anti-conformist is so much cooler though.

I'm not just being cool, though.. I actually didn't get my PM!

[Eevee]

Confirmed.

[Robz888]

Maybe this is a new challenge Voltgloss has given me, "Let's see if Robz can win without even knowing his role or alignment! Mwahaha!"

[Voltgloss]

I applaud Robz for his anti-conformist attitudes.

I however DID receive my role, so confirmed for me. Being an anti-conformist is so much cooler though.

I'm not just being cool, though.. I actually didn't get my PM!

Snafu on my end.  PM has been re-sent.

I guess this is why we ask people to confirm receipt!

[Robz888]

Okay, now I am confirmed.

[ashersky]

Robz makes 10!

[Captain_Frisk]

Confirmed

[Jorbles]

Just commenting to follow the thread, send me the QT.

[jotheonah]

confrizzle

[cayvie]

That's twelve, right?

[Voltgloss]

It is.  But it feels really awkward to start on a Sunday evening.  Game start is scheduled for tomorrow (Monday) morning, EDT. 

[Voltgloss]

Mood music: 

The crooked sign read:

WELCOME TO AGUA CALIENTE
NOW GO HOME

"So that's it.  The border town of Agua Caliente."
"Looks just like a morgue."
"And it could be one so easily."
"They don't like strangers?"
"They don't like anybody!"

And with that, the Mafia rode into the Border Village of Agua Caliente.  In a town like this, there was always the potential to become rich... or become dead.  The Mafia liked the sound of that.

"MADRE DE DIOS!"

The saloonkeeper, Voltgloss, suddenly charged out through his swinging doors to the village square.  Curious onlookers peeped at him from windows.

"Run!  Run for your lives!  The MAFIA has come to Agua Caliente!  How do I know?  Look!  Look what someone made at the breakfast statio"BANG

A shot rang out and Voltgloss fell dead, a bullet hole between his eyes.  No one could tell from whence the shot came.  But as people filed out into the square and saw the shattered plate that fell from Voltgloss's hand, they understood why this was the Mafia's work.

This was no set of Agua Caliente-special pancakes on the plate, like every native inhabitant made almost religiously every morning.  No.  This breakfast was clearly that of a nefarious outsider.

For Voltgloss had died holding...

A FISTFUL OF WAFFLES.

Day 1 Start!!

Not voting: ashersky, Robz888, Eevee, Captain_Frisk, cayvie, sparky5856, jotheonah, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz, pingpongsam, O, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[theorel]

So, the mafia are a  bunch of waffle-makers.  The thing to determine is who is most likely to make waffles?
Well, Insomniac is in this game, and I always think he's scum...So, I'll get it out of my system now:
Vote: Insomniac.

I think he probably likes waffles.

[Eevee]

Vote: cayvie
She would be the kind of person who would like waffles. Maybe.

[Insomniac]

Similarily I always think theorel is scum, but I don't like to OMGUS in the RVS. eHunt is like theorel's alt but he's not in this game. So!

Vote: Robz888

That guy is always scum

[theorel]

Vote: cayvie
She would be the kind of person who would like waffles. Maybe.

Hedging already I see...trying to maintain your meta of really scummy but actually town?

Do you like waffles Eevee?  Confess...only then can you be cleansed.

[Robz888]

Vote: Pingpongsam. This is NOT an RVS vote.

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

This annoyed me the second I saw it. It's such a Morgrim move. It's anti-town! We've been over this, and PPS should know better.

[Eevee]

Vote: cayvie
She would be the kind of person who would like waffles. Maybe.

Hedging already I see...trying to maintain your meta of really scummy but actually town?

Do you like waffles Eevee?  Confess...only then can you be cleansed.

I did draw town again, I swear all the mods are conspiring against me! Wouldn't want to appear scummy though, no, which is why I didn't admit to actually liking waffles in my first post.. but you caught me, I do. Full confession: I like them even even better than pancakes.

[Eevee]

Vote: Pingpongsam. This is NOT an RVS vote.

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

This annoyed me the second I saw it. It's such a Morgrim move. It's anti-town! We've been over this, and PPS should know better.

I dont think it's that bad. PPS is savvy enough to say that whatever his role is, I think it was said sort of jokingly and is still just an implied claim. Certainly wouldn't push the issue, at least not tothe point of forcing out a claim. nNoting you found it scummy is obviously fine.

[Robz888]

Vote: Pingpongsam. This is NOT an RVS vote.

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

This annoyed me the second I saw it. It's such a Morgrim move. It's anti-town! We've been over this, and PPS should know better.

I dont think it's that bad. PPS is savvy enough to say that whatever his role is, I think it was said sort of jokingly and is still just an implied claim. Certainly wouldn't push the issue, at least not tothe point of forcing out a claim. nNoting you found it scummy is obviously fine.

I don't think it's necessarily scummy, but it's certainly anti-town and bad. And to a point, anti-town = scummy. To say anything about your role is to clue the mafia in on whom to kill/not kill.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Pingpongsam. This is NOT an RVS vote.

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

This annoyed me the second I saw it. It's such a Morgrim move. It's anti-town! We've been over this, and PPS should know better.

I dont think it's that bad. PPS is savvy enough to say that whatever his role is, I think it was said sort of jokingly and is still just an implied claim. Certainly wouldn't push the issue, at least not tothe point of forcing out a claim. nNoting you found it scummy is obviously fine.

But he already DID claim. Claiming VT is terrible! And I know, I've done it.

[Eevee]

We are all claiming VT at the moment, just not saying it out loud. Claiming VT this early is anti-town only if you make sure others understand you really really mean it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Can't believe I missed that claim - is this going to be the earliest claim in f.ds history?  Before game start?

[Robz888]

We are all claiming VT at the moment, just not saying it out loud. Claiming VT this early is anti-town only if you make sure others understand you really really mean it.

The default assumption for each and every person in this game is role unknown. You don't want to tip the mafia to your role unless the benefit to doing so--providing the town with an investigation result, or contradicting a claim, for instance--is outweighing.

So I'm not pleased to see these VT claims get made by someone who should no better in practically every game. And I do think we under-punish bad behavior. But anyway, I would like him to get in here and defend that. I took his claim seriously, I don't know why we wouldn't. The post isn't sarcastic to me.

[jotheonah]

I hate to Vote: PPS since he was just day 1 lynched in BMV, but I agree with Robz.

[Eevee]

PPS, whether you were serious earlier or not, you should absolutely now make clear you are not clsming VT. I tried to do this for you, Robz and jonah sadly insisted on reading the claim literally.

Guys, I'd rather punish people who do this in a later game. Not really liking the idea of giving mafia a free pass on lynching a townie in this game. In fact, Vote jotheonah for trying to get the wagon rolling. I would vote both of you if I could.

[Insomniac]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

[jotheonah]

PPS, whether you were serious earlier or not, you should absolutely now make clear you are not clsming VT. I tried to do this for you, Robz and jonah sadly insisted on reading the claim literally.

Guys, I'd rather punish people who do this in a later game. Not really liking the idea of giving mafia a free pass on lynching a townie in this game. In fact, Vote jotheonah for trying to get the wagon rolling. I would vote both of you if I could.

"Scumbuddy, here's how you get out of this. I tried to save you but it didn't work. Now I'll see if I can chainsaw you instead"


.... is a perfectly valid reading of that post.

[Robz888]

PPS, whether you were serious earlier or not, you should absolutely now make clear you are not clsming VT. I tried to do this for you, Robz and jonah sadly insisted on reading the claim literally.

Guys, I'd rather punish people who do this in a later game. Not really liking the idea of giving mafia a free pass on lynching a townie in this game. In fact, Vote jotheonah for trying to get the wagon rolling. I would vote both of you if I could.

"Scumbuddy, here's how you get out of this. I tried to save you but it didn't work. Now I'll see if I can chainsaw you instead"


.... is a perfectly valid reading of that post.

This. I could not possibly agree more.

[jotheonah]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

False. The way I see it, there's three explanations:

1) PPS is VT, and he just bumbled into insta-claiming his role. PPS has played this game before and played it well, so I don't buy that.

2) PPS is a town PR and decided the best thing to do was lie about it right out of the gate. See #1

3) PPS is scum and is trying a gambit to be seen as obv. town, because f.ds never punishes bad behavior and PPS knows it.

I find all three hard to believe, but 3 is the least unlikely. Robz, what's your take?

[Robz888]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

I didn't say we should lynch PPS immediately without further reflection, but I do want him to get in here and explain why he did something that advantages the mafia. Voting for him, in order to get him to do this, is perfectly legitimate.

[Robz888]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

False. The way I see it, there's three explanations:

1) PPS is VT, and he just bumbled into insta-claiming his role. PPS has played this game before and played it well, so I don't buy that.

2) PPS is a town PR and decided the best thing to do was lie about it right out of the gate. See #1

3) PPS is scum and is trying a gambit to be seen as obv. town, because f.ds never punishes bad behavior and PPS knows it.

I find all three hard to believe, but 3 is the least unlikely. Robz, what's your take?

Again, this is exactly correct. Because it's PPS, we know #1--the harmless explanation--is unlikely. #2 would be interesting, but the problem is it creates just as much of a headache for us as it does for the mafia. #3 is certainly a better explanation than the other two (in this case), because we don't generally do anything to punish these people, and in fact treat them as obvtown, and well, they've usually been town... but that doesn't make it less of an offense. And PPS is a savvy guy.

[Captain_Frisk]

@eevee - we've covered this before - claiming VT explicitly out loud is different than the default implicit VT roleclaim.

You might want to see PPS's own post from M7
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg70206#msg70206
- in which he attempts to pair Shark_Bait and I (shark_bait early claimed VT).

He's savvy enough to know what he's doing.

[jotheonah]

Also, Robz +1 for the fastest transition out of RVS I've ever seen. Although I guess PPS gets some credit too.

[ashersky]

Vote: Robz.  Just getting the obligatory RVS out of the way.

I was irked at the PPS claim pre-game, but in the end decided it was something not to be believed.  So it's a lie, and he's scum, or it was just one of those not-funny jokey sorts of things.   I don't know.

It'd be good to hear from him.

[ashersky]

Also, Robz +1 for the fastest transition out of RVS I've ever seen. Although I guess PPS gets some credit too.

Nope.  Back to RVS!

[Voltgloss]

Mere minutes had passed since Voltgloss's untimely death, and the good citizens of Agua Caliente were already at each other's throats.

Vote Count 1-1

Insomniac (1): theorel
Robz888 (2): Insomniac, ashersky
pingpongsam (2): Robz888, jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Eevee

Not voting {7}: Captain_Frisk, cayvie, sparky5856, Grujah, Cuzz, pingpongsam, O

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Also, Robz +1 for the fastest transition out of RVS I've ever seen. Although I guess PPS gets some credit too.

You know that I just loathe RVS entirely. The second I saw PPS make that comment during confirmation stage, I breathed a sigh that was as much relief as it was frustration. "Something consequential to discuss!"

[Eevee]

Less than two hours into the game and you already found the scum pair? Good job guys!

Aw, it's like day 1 of mafia VII all over again.

[jotheonah]

I know, right? High-five Robz.

[Robz888]

Less than two hours into the game and you already found the scum pair? Good job guys!

Aw, it's like day 1 of mafia VII all over again.

Well, take everything with a grain of salt, obviously. But you need to face facts.

[Eevee]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

I didn't say we should lynch PPS immediately without further reflection, but I do want him to get in here and explain why he did something that advantages the mafia. Voting for him, in order to get him to do this, is perfectly legitimate.

How can this be beneficial HOW? I can only see one pro-town response, it's the one I'm suggesting and it will render this entire conversation useless.
I think saying #1 is impossible because PPS is so good but #3 isn't is ridiculous btw. Oh and do you remember how PPS played day 1 of VI?

[Eevee]

Less than two hours into the game and you already found the scum pair? Good job guys!

Aw, it's like day 1 of mafia VII all over again.

Well, take everything with a grain of salt, obviously. But you need to face facts.

I'm thinking the grain of salt here is that one of you is wrong and the other one is mafia.

What makes it weird is, if it's me who is wrong, I don't see how pushing this is going to help us.

[Insomniac]

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

[ashersky]

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

That, or Robz will start pushing folks to lynch newbies.

[Robz888]

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

I didn't say we should lynch PPS immediately without further reflection, but I do want him to get in here and explain why he did something that advantages the mafia. Voting for him, in order to get him to do this, is perfectly legitimate.

How can this be beneficial HOW? I can only see one pro-town response, it's the one I'm suggesting and it will render this entire conversation useless.
I think saying #1 is impossible because PPS is so good but #3 isn't is ridiculous btw. Oh and do you remember how PPS played day 1 of VI?

Eevee, you're acting insane. PPS did something bad. Do you disagree that it's bad? I can find no evidence that his post was sarcastic, so it was bad. He needs to explain it.

[Grujah]

Huh, the thing is PPS ain't one to make a "stupid claim" like that. Remember his opening post in MVI - he doesn't make stuff like that on accident. But he was much more slick there, this is too obvious. Also love how jo goes for cuts of a VT claimer after his MIV experience D1. But there you were scrutinized but never really punished (at least not early) so that brings so much WIFOM...aaaaargh!!

PPS, why WIFOMing everybody straight from the start? doesn't seem town. I want answers! Vote: Pingpongsam

Eevee - why so jumpy on PPS votes?

An off-topic: D1 here tend to milk the deadline to the last moment. We obviously do not want that here. How about make a soft-deadline?


(in b4 "Grujah is trying to force us into a quicklynch")


PPE: Damn these warnings

[Robz888]

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

[ashersky]

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

Robz, this seems really anti-town to me.

[Robz888]

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

Robz, this seems really anti-town to me.

Ashersky, you weren't listening, it's fine. It's a fine thing to do. Eevee and Insomniac say so!

[Insomniac]

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

That is not at all what I said, what I said was that you have the blinders on and you want PPS's blood thats not pro town.

[Robz888]

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

That is not at all what I said, what I said was that you have the blinders on and you want PPS's blood thats not pro town.

How do I want PPS's blood? I want to hold him accountable. I want him to explain why he thought making that comment was acceptable. If I get a satisfactory explanation, or am persuaded that he's town, I will unvote.

[theorel]

You guys are being a bit ridiculous.  So, I'm going to do the stupid thing and jump in the middle.

Claiming VT is suspicious.  It really should be viewed as suspicious.  It's like making mistakes.  It increases the amount of suspicion that should be shown towards the player who did it.  However, we as we pay attention to what the player says we need to be willing to back down our suspicions and reconsider.  I would say PPS is mildly more suspicious than everyone else for making the claim, that doesn't make him scum.  But the best reason for him to make the claim, is that he is scum.  It's not the only reason, simply the best one (i.e. means he's playing best for his team).

@Robz: you shouldn't need to be persuaded that he's town, or require a "satisfactory" explanation.  That does in fact lead to blinders.

[Eevee]

@ashersky
Good one, laughed IRL.

So Robz and Jo, to confirm here, you're trying to get a wagon going on a VT because of policy as opposed to actually trying to scumhunt?

I didn't say we should lynch PPS immediately without further reflection, but I do want him to get in here and explain why he did something that advantages the mafia. Voting for him, in order to get him to do this, is perfectly legitimate.

How can this be beneficial HOW? I can only see one pro-town response, it's the one I'm suggesting and it will render this entire conversation useless.
I think saying #1 is impossible because PPS is so good but #3 isn't is ridiculous btw. Oh and do you remember how PPS played day 1 of VI?

Eevee, you're acting insane. PPS did something bad. Do you disagree that it's bad? I can find no evidence that his post was sarcastic, so it was bad. He needs to explain it.

I agree PPS shouldn't have said that. However, what you are doing here is only going to make it worse. What are you expecting, him to clarify he was indeed claiming VT? His explanation wont help us catch scum. I fear this will end with everyone wagoning a townie, whether it's me or PPS. Or PPS really made a terrible careless mistake as scum and I'm a clown.

PPE: 6 new replies.

[ashersky]

Are we all forgetting the most important thing?  We need to find out who makes waffles!

Seriously though, we have time, so hearing from PPS himself would be most helpful.  As mentioned before, I found it a bit annoying that he PGCed (that's pre-game-claimed), so we need to hear what he has to say.  I think his response to all of this will be more informative than the PGC itself.

[theorel]

Grujah mentioned a soft-deadline.  I think this is a good idea.  (I was thinking about it when I initially read the opening post, but forgot in the after-math of waffle-making death) I think there are occasions where it helps town to have a little pressure in making a decision.

Personally I think somewhere around 10 days would be good?  So, maybe try to finish day1 by next Friday (that'd be 11 days).
I think it's reasonable to make day1 the longest day, but we'll probably need some time for day 2 and 3 at least.

That would leave 10 days left over, so we could go a little over a week each for days 2 and 3.

[Eevee]

If we stay this active, I doubt the deadline is going to be a problem. We didn't even have a RVS. This game rocks.

[theorel]

True for the moment.  But I don't want this to go like MVIII where we start talking about something that might actually be important (or might not), it gets overshadowed by other random stuff and then, in another 10 days it's suddenly really important again but no one has weighed in on it.

Just because we DO have some actually suspicious things to discuss, doesn't mean that we'll be hitting a lynch any earlier.  One non-random topic does not mean we're out of all the random accusations of RVS.

[sparky5856]

Just because we DO have some actually suspicious things to discuss, doesn't mean that we'll be hitting a lynch any earlier.  One non-random topic does not mean we're out of all the random accusations of RVS.

This is certainly true.

VOTE: Cuzz. Because.

(PPS is on vacation this week. I'm not expecting a response from him anytime soon. At least, I'm not holding my hopes up. I just hope that we're not making mountains out of a molehill. So, let's try to find some other topic in the meantime? Or someone could summarize to me how PPS's behavior relates to his stunt on the very first page.)

[pingpongsam]

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative. If I am scum and you lynch me D1 you've finally hit scum D1 but there remains no clarity on who else is scum because this is such an easy lynch to manipulate.  So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

I am what I say I am and the outrage erupting is from scum trying to gain control of the game. Even if I get NK'd N1 those pushing this wagon in D1 look out of place.

My claim is dangerously confusing for Town but my flip as Town is far more useful to Town so I conceive of staying alive for a few days on this claim. Scum loves to press Town into lynching the most outrageous player D1 if they can. Sheep scum and all we get another D1 mislynch like we always get; so what is really lost here?

[Robz888]

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative. If I am scum and you lynch me D1 you've finally hit scum D1 but there remains no clarity on who else is scum because this is such an easy lynch to manipulate.  So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

I am what I say I am and the outrage erupting is from scum trying to gain control of the game. Even if I get NK'd N1 those pushing this wagon in D1 look out of place.

My claim is dangerously confusing for Town but my flip as Town is far more useful to Town so I conceive of staying alive for a few days on this claim. Scum loves to press Town into lynching the most outrageous player D1 if they can. Sheep scum and all we get another D1 mislynch like we always get; so what is really lost here?

I find this highly confusing--perhaps intentionally so--and still does not answer the basic question.

If you say you are VT, and you expect to be believed, you help the mafia narrow down which person they should target tonight (i.e., not you). If you say you are VT, and you are lying, the question becomes, why lie?

[Eevee]

Oh yeah wow, that was a confusing post. PPS, what if everyone did that?

I certainly did not mean to imply I think claiming VT like that is a sound strategic choice.

[sparky5856]

Six minutes after I posted. Not bad PPS.

Robz is playing much differently than how he played in Mafia IX. He's much more forceful with his reasoning, more on the offense than the defense.

It doesn't make sense why scum would push for this early of a D1 lynch. One, that's gonna leave more time in later days for others to analyze your faults and pinpoint you as scum (if the person you pushed the lynch on flips town). And two, accelerating lynches is incredibly scummy imo. Scummy players do not want to appear scummy this early.

So for now I deem Robz town. PPS implies not. He claims all of this is just "scum trying to control the game". Who should be believed?

[jotheonah]

One of the things I hate most about f.ds meta: "Confident townies are scummy." Generally, no.

[Robz888]

Oh yeah wow, that was a confusing post. PPS, what if everyone did that?

I certainly did not mean to imply I think claiming VT like that is a sound strategic choice.

Let the distancing begin!

[theorel]

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative.

This really makes no sense.  I can see no way in which your claim makes your reads more informative if you live longer.
Let's assume you are town:
Well, currently we don't know your alignment, so your reads need to be considered carefully (just like if you hadn't claimed).
If we lynch you day1, then your reads are as valuable as ANYONE ELSE we lynch day1 that flips town.
if we lynch you day3, then your reads are as valuable as ANYONE ELSE we lynch day3 that flips town.

Arguably your reads are worse, because you have become a center of attention, and as such are likely to attribute scum-reasoning to those with none, specifically because they attack you.  (see for example you read on Galzria in BMV, or Insomniac in MVI). 

I posit that an early claim does not in fact add value to your reads...I would require an explanation for why they do.  Since the only other impact is either that town is more likely to lynch you day1 (which is anti-town if you're town), or that scum is less likely to kill you at night (which is anti-town), I posit that the claim is entirely anti-town.

Because of that disagreement, I disagree with pretty much the rest of your post.  Since the claim is anti-town, any player can attack you for good reason.  Scum is as likely to defend you as persecute you...but you will perceive persecution as an attempt by scum to control the game.  Therefore your reads are actually LESS VALUABLE, because you've taken an anti-town action and will interpret players accusing you of anti-town behavior as scum.

The problem with INTENTIONALLY outrageous play, is that while it may pull scum-attention it also pulls town attention.  Therefore scum can try to steer clear of the situation, letting the lynch go through on its own power, and then push for killing people on-wagon.  There is almost no chance that you will be NK'd N1.  Either you'll be lynched, or you'll be a constant source of misreads from the town.

[Insomniac]

Oh yeah wow, that was a confusing post. PPS, what if everyone did that?

I certainly did not mean to imply I think claiming VT like that is a sound strategic choice.

Let the distancing begin!

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

[Robz888]

Here's what PPS should have said (if he is town, and he is VT), "I regret making that post. I understand what Robz means when he says it's an anti-town thing to do."

Savvy town play might have been to also say: "However, I actually only meant it jest. 'Am I telling the truth or not?' Who knows!" regardless of whether this were true or not.

[yuma]

Vote Count 1-2

Insomniac (1): theorel
Robz888 (2): Insomniac, ashersky
pingpongsam (3): Robz888, jotheonah, grujah
jotheonah (1): Eevee
Cuzz (1): sparky5856

Not voting {5}: Captain_Frisk, cayvie, Cuzz, pingpongsam, O

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[O]

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully.

[Insomniac]

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully.

Wanna bus your scumbuddy Frisk with me...oops this isn't M8...regardless, wanna tell me who your scumbuddies are?

[O]

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully.

Sure. When I flip scum in this game, keep in mind Insomniac and Eevee are my scumbuddies.
I'm 100% serious.
Wanna bus your scumbuddy Frisk with me...oops this isn't M8...regardless, wanna tell me who your scumbuddies are?

[sparky5856]

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative.

This really makes no sense.  I can see no way in which your claim makes your reads more informative if you live longer.
Let's assume you are town:
Well, currently we don't know your alignment, so your reads need to be considered carefully (just like if you hadn't claimed).
If we lynch you day1, then your reads are as valuable as ANYONE ELSE we lynch day1 that flips town.
if we lynch you day3, then your reads are as valuable as ANYONE ELSE we lynch day3 that flips town.

Arguably your reads are worse, because you have become a center of attention, and as such are likely to attribute scum-reasoning to those with none, specifically because they attack you.  (see for example you read on Galzria in BMV, or Insomniac in MVI). 

I posit that an early claim does not in fact add value to your reads...I would require an explanation for why they do.  Since the only other impact is either that town is more likely to lynch you day1 (which is anti-town if you're town), or that scum is less likely to kill you at night (which is anti-town), I posit that the claim is entirely anti-town.

Because of that disagreement, I disagree with pretty much the rest of your post.  Since the claim is anti-town, any player can attack you for good reason.  Scum is as likely to defend you as persecute you...but you will perceive persecution as an attempt by scum to control the game. Therefore your reads are actually LESS VALUABLE, because you've taken an anti-town action and will interpret players accusing you of anti-town behavior as scum.

I've got my head scratching. IS it good to push for a lynch already, so that we have more time for later days? PPS is the most likely candidate at this point because of theorel's observations. I'm all for useful players, but if we can't take someone's reads seriously... then what's the point?

But, we have three real-days every game-day don't we? So no, no lynch yet. I want PPS to provide actual reads before anything else happens. THEN we'll see how useful they are.

[jotheonah]

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

LOL at the biased wording. I think, um "still blinders" is my answer.

But that was sort of a "Have you stopped beating your wife?" of a question.

[theorel]

Just because his reads are less valuable than they would be without the claim, doesn't make them not useful.
In particular, if he flips town, we at least know that his reads are honest...whether they're well-informed or not.

I really more hope that he'll recognize that his claim was anti-town and do some honest scum-hunting rather than trying to spot scum by whoever happens to accuse him for his "outrageous" play.  This would be preferable to lynching him if he's town, and I certainly don't find his VT claim and unsubstantiated reasoning sufficient to believe he is going to flip scum.  It is sufficient for me to want to watch him more closely, that's all I got out of it so far.

I also hope that Robz and joth in spite of their strong language will try to avoid giving in to confirmation bias turning anything that PPS does into scum-play for the rest of the game.

Basically: Robz gave one possible town-reaction to the claim-enduced pressure.  The question should be, was his response what would be an expected scum-reaction to the pressure?  It should not be now that he's responded is he scummy because he didn't use the one town-response that you could think of?  This is primarily what I meant earlier when Robz said he needed to be "persuaded" that PPS is not scum.  IMO you should still believe that he is more likely to be town than scum, therefore he should actually have to do something (or certain forms of nothing) for you to believe he is scum.

[ashersky]

Unvote.

Just wanted to get that RVS vote undone.  Following along, but somewhat unable to post as I'm preparing to move.  I'll get back in with more soon.

I will say, not convinced by PPS's argument so far.  I think it'd be better to have just said, "yeah, that was a lame post, sorry.  Just kidding anyway!" or something along those lines.  Instead, he tries to defend it with some confusing arguments, which just makes it seem worse.

[Grujah]

On PPS issue I agree with theo - I don't see how him claiming VT helps with "trusting his reads after he flips".
 

Just because we DO have some actually suspicious things to discuss, doesn't mean that we'll be hitting a lynch any earlier.  One non-random topic does not mean we're out of all the random accusations of RVS.

This is certainly true.

VOTE: Cuzz. Because.

Wait, What? Why?

[pingpongsam]

Oh yeah wow, that was a confusing post. PPS, what if everyone did that?

Edited out of my post was the notion that really only one person can do this which was why I immediately claimed.  Also,  I am doing my part in answering the longstanding Frisky question of how a game plays when we all claim D1, an idea brought to bear by a Town Frisk.

[Eevee]

Here's what PPS should have said (if he is town, and he is VT), "I regret making that post. I understand what Robz means when he says it's an anti-town thing to do."

Savvy town play might have been to also say: "However, I actually only meant it jest. 'Am I telling the truth or not?' Who knows!" regardless of whether this were true or not.

I was arguing this the whole time. The fact he chose to write something else makes him a lot scummier in my eyes. Or weirder at least. A terrible terrible play.

O seems to read me extraordinarily well (he always says I look towny and what do you know, I always am town).

[Eevee]

Oh yeah wow, that was a confusing post. PPS, what if everyone did that?

Edited out of my post was the notion that really only one person can do this which was why I immediately claimed.  Also,  I am doing my part in answering the longstanding Frisky question of how a game plays when we all claim D1, an idea brought to bear by a Town Frisk.

You claim VT -> mafia knows not to kill you at night and have a higher chance at hitting a power role. Sure, you'll live longer and the game will be more fun for you, but playing town's win con, do you seriously think the benefits of your claim outweigh this pretty huge problem it has?

[Insomniac]

Here's what PPS should have said (if he is town, and he is VT), "I regret making that post. I understand what Robz means when he says it's an anti-town thing to do."

Savvy town play might have been to also say: "However, I actually only meant it jest. 'Am I telling the truth or not?' Who knows!" regardless of whether this were true or not.

I was arguing this the whole time. The fact he chose to write something else makes him a lot scummier in my eyes. Or weirder at least. A terrible terrible play.

O seems to read me extraordinarily well (he always says I look towny and what do you know, I always am town).

You're aware he called you scum (with himself and I) this game

[pingpongsam]

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

[Eevee]

Here's what PPS should have said (if he is town, and he is VT), "I regret making that post. I understand what Robz means when he says it's an anti-town thing to do."

Savvy town play might have been to also say: "However, I actually only meant it jest. 'Am I telling the truth or not?' Who knows!" regardless of whether this were true or not.

I was arguing this the whole time. The fact he chose to write something else makes him a lot scummier in my eyes. Or weirder at least. A terrible terrible play.

O seems to read me extraordinarily well (he always says I look towny and what do you know, I always am town).

You're aware he called you scum (with himself and I) this game

Only after he flips scum, which I assume he means is impossible, so he actually means we are his strongest town reads. Not sure though.

@PPS
So you don't claim VT, just town? GOOD!

[cayvie]

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

what

[Insomniac]

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

what

Softclaim "might be lying"

[pingpongsam]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

[cayvie]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

SK is not town.

[Robz888]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

[pingpongsam]

Theorel makes a valid counter that my reads are no more valuable than any other dead towny's reads. That the longer a towny stays in the game the more valuable his reads become, especially if his reads start panning out correctly, is a still standing assertion. The notion that my reads are less valuable is a wash because it presumes that my reads are biased against those persecuting me which, in this case, is not entirely true. An audacious action will result in audacious reaction which provides more information than a carefully controlled schema from Scum which is what D1 typically consists of. Whether you agree with the methodology or not does not detract from the fact that Scum is now in reactive mode to a Town maneuver which is decidedly different.

[pingpongsam]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

[jotheonah]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

uhhhhh how exactly?

[Robz888]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

I think it's just a much a predicament for us though (likely more). They will just say, "Well, if he's a PR, so be it. He's giving the town a headache." Whereas every day that you are still alive, we will wonder if you played us.

[Eevee]

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

If that's true, then what value did your claim have? If it means absolutely nothing, why even say it?

[pingpongsam]

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game. That it is the center of discussion means it holds value, as to which alignment can make that value theirs is up to everyone else in the game. My assertion, which can only be proven or disproven as the game progresses is that this tilts the field so that Scum does not hold the D1 advantage that they typically do.

[Robz888]

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game.

I have corrected this so many, many, many times. The implied VT--which is really just an unknown, but VT for convenience sake--is entirely different from a stated VT.

[jotheonah]

PPS is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

I suggest we either lynch him or move on to other topics and then lynch him.

[Robz888]

PPS is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

I suggest we either lynch him or move on to other topics and then lynch him.

Move on to other topics--and then quite possibly lynch him--sounds good to me.

Who else is even in this game?

[Captain_Frisk]

vote: pps[/]

I don't mind letting a morgrim or a newb get away with this - but we can't start allowing experienced players to do explicitly anti town stuff.

[pingpongsam]

PPS is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

I suggest we either lynch him or move on to other topics and then lynch him.

Translation: PPS's maneuver leaves us with no choice but to drive a wagon on him forcing our scummy hands or to try and switch the topic to something more easily manipulated.

[Voltgloss]

pingpongsam climbed up into the town belltower and started loudly ringing it, proclaiming his innocence to one and all.

Reactions were decidedly mixed.

Vote Count 1-3

Insomniac (1): theorel
Robz888 (1): Insomniac
pingpongsam (4): Robz888, jotheonah, Grujah, Captain_Frisk
jotheonah (1): Eevee
Cuzz (1): sparky5856

Not voting {5}: cayvie, Cuzz, pingpongsam, O, ashersky

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[cayvie]

pingpongsam climbed up into the town belltower and started loudly ringing it, proclaiming his innocence to one and all.

Reactions were decidedly mixed.

haha

[cayvie]

I think PPS is town who either doesn't see or doesn't want to admit a mistake.

The whole "scum knows I'm town", ignoring the possibility of SK, sounds like something a townie would say, not something scum pretending to be a townie would say.

[pingpongsam]

I think PPS is town who either doesn't see or doesn't want to admit a mistake.

The whole "scum knows I'm town", ignoring the possibility of SK, sounds like something a townie would say, not something scum pretending to be a townie would say.

I admit the play was made without consideration of the SK role which I discovered about the point I mentioned that Scum would only know I wasn't one of them or SK. I admit it also convolutes the thing into a degree of complexity that I wouldn't have wrought otherwise. SK is just a chance role, though and we'll find out D2 if it exists (most likely). If not, then I feel my play is still wise although it stands the cahnce of getting me D1 lynch just like the last game I was Town in.

[Cuzz]

Hi guys, I've been away all weekend so only had a chance to do a quick readthrough of the game so far. 2 comments for now:

1. I agree totally with Robz and joth. Robz is making almost exactly the same argument about pps that he made about Morgrim in MX (which I refused to take to heart at the time because I was young and stupid back then). Pps's claim is egregiously anti-town and such behavior should be punished. Odds are that town gets lynched D1; that's just a fact. In the absence of truly scummy behavior (which is hard to discern on D1), I'd prefer to lynch someone who's not trying to help town win. None of pps's defenses make any sense to me btw.

Also FoS: Eevee for not understanding the implied versus explicit VT claim issue. We went over this ad nauseum in MX.

2. The pps wagon is gaining steam (for some understandable reasons) so I'm a bit cautious about adding to it and voting for him quite yet this early. He'd be at L-2 if I did so, and the game only started this morning. Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps. (does this contradict my first point? no, because I'm not voting atm).

[Insomniac]

Hi guys, I've been away all weekend so only had a chance to do a quick readthrough of the game so far. 2 comments for now:

1. I agree totally with Robz and joth. Robz is making almost exactly the same argument about pps that he made about Morgrim in MX (which I refused to take to heart at the time because I was young and stupid back then). Pps's claim is egregiously anti-town and such behavior should be punished. Odds are that town gets lynched D1; that's just a fact. In the absence of truly scummy behavior (which is hard to discern on D1), I'd prefer to lynch someone who's not trying to help town win. None of pps's defenses make any sense to me btw.

Also FoS: Eevee for not understanding the implied versus explicit VT claim issue. We went over this ad nauseum in MX.

2. The pps wagon is gaining steam (for some understandable reasons) so I'm a bit cautious about adding to it and voting for him quite yet this early. He'd be at L-2 if I did so, and the game only started this morning. Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps. (does this contradict my first point? no, because I'm not voting atm).

Didn't follow too closely but wasn't Morgrim town? Wouldn't you rather at least TRY to find scum instead of just hating on PPS for trying something

[Robz888]

Also FoS: Eevee for not understanding the implied versus explicit VT claim issue. We went over this ad nauseum in MX.

We also went over it ad nauseum in MI, MIV, and probably several other games. I think it's surpassing "No Lynch or no?" as the most frequently debated issue to which there is already an answer.

[Robz888]

Hi guys, I've been away all weekend so only had a chance to do a quick readthrough of the game so far. 2 comments for now:

1. I agree totally with Robz and joth. Robz is making almost exactly the same argument about pps that he made about Morgrim in MX (which I refused to take to heart at the time because I was young and stupid back then). Pps's claim is egregiously anti-town and such behavior should be punished. Odds are that town gets lynched D1; that's just a fact. In the absence of truly scummy behavior (which is hard to discern on D1), I'd prefer to lynch someone who's not trying to help town win. None of pps's defenses make any sense to me btw.

Also FoS: Eevee for not understanding the implied versus explicit VT claim issue. We went over this ad nauseum in MX.

2. The pps wagon is gaining steam (for some understandable reasons) so I'm a bit cautious about adding to it and voting for him quite yet this early. He'd be at L-2 if I did so, and the game only started this morning. Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps. (does this contradict my first point? no, because I'm not voting atm).

Didn't follow too closely but wasn't Morgrim town? Wouldn't you rather at least TRY to find scum instead of just hating on PPS for trying something

Morgrim was town (and so was I FYI, and so was O who punished me for it, so bleh), but this stuff has to stop, and PPS is a savvier player than Morgrim; I think it's more likely to be a ploy.

I am still happy to scumhunt elsewhere, however. There seems to be this myth that I am trying to shut down all non-PPS discussion.

[Eevee]

Morgrim was town indeed. The difference is, what he did was clearly anti-town there because it was quite obvious he really meant it. Here I really really thought PPS would just come in and say "I was joking, not really claiming anything guys", but apparently he had some grand plan I don't agree with one bit.

[Robz888]

Morgrim was town indeed. The difference is, what he did was clearly anti-town there because it was quite obvious he really meant it. Here I really really thought PPS would just come in and say "I was joking, not really claiming anything guys", but apparently he had some grand plan I don't agree with one bit.

There's that aspect of it, too. With Morgrim I was much more concerned about punishing bad behavior that needed to stop immediately... and the possibility that one of these times Morgrim insanity will be a defense for scum Morgrim. Alas, it wasn't that time.

[Insomniac]

Robz ignoring PPS what does your suspicion list look like?

Eevee: PPS has yet to play the same game twice. in MVI I thought he was half crazy, in MVII he was super skilled, in BMV he was super crazy and I got him mislynched (He morgrimed there, voted himself).

[Robz888]

Robz ignoring PPS what does your suspicion list look like?

Eevee: PPS has yet to play the same game twice. in MVI I thought he was half crazy, in MVII he was super skilled, in BMV he was super crazy and I got him mislynched (He morgrimed there, voted himself).

None. To even put out a name would be counter productive.

But if other people want to present some evidence and suspicions, I will certainly weigh them, and perhaps comment.

[Cuzz]

Hi guys, I've been away all weekend so only had a chance to do a quick readthrough of the game so far. 2 comments for now:

1. I agree totally with Robz and joth. Robz is making almost exactly the same argument about pps that he made about Morgrim in MX (which I refused to take to heart at the time because I was young and stupid back then). Pps's claim is egregiously anti-town and such behavior should be punished. Odds are that town gets lynched D1; that's just a fact. In the absence of truly scummy behavior (which is hard to discern on D1), I'd prefer to lynch someone who's not trying to help town win. None of pps's defenses make any sense to me btw.

Also FoS: Eevee for not understanding the implied versus explicit VT claim issue. We went over this ad nauseum in MX.

2. The pps wagon is gaining steam (for some understandable reasons) so I'm a bit cautious about adding to it and voting for him quite yet this early. He'd be at L-2 if I did so, and the game only started this morning. Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps. (does this contradict my first point? no, because I'm not voting atm).

Didn't follow too closely but wasn't Morgrim town? Wouldn't you rather at least TRY to find scum instead of just hating on PPS for trying something

Of course I'd rather try to find scum. Hence my bolded statement above. That's also part of the reason I'm not voting yet. But if you've got a foolproof method for finding mafia on D1 I'd love to hear it.

[Insomniac]

Ok well people I would currently be suspicious of are the ones that have voiced a desire to be on PPS's wagon but haven't done it or discussed anything else this game day. This includes

Cuzz
Captain_Frisk
Grujah
Jotheonah

Sparky has also been pretty hedgy in his few posts today so that seems a bit worrisome.

Joth has been driving the PPS case pretty hard, almost as hard as you Robz I just in this case suspect him a bit less than you.

[cayvie]

Less than two hours into the game and you already found the scum pair? Good job guys!

The scum pair, eh?

vote: Eevee

There could easily be 3 mafia in this setup.

[Eevee]

Less than two hours into the game and you already found the scum pair? Good job guys!

The scum pair, eh?

vote: Eevee

There could easily be 3 mafia in this setup.

Yeah, I did realize that after I checked the setup again after O made his "when I flip scum, remember Eevee and Insomniac are my partners" comment. Not sure how you can read that as a scumslip though, first time someone who just had 3 games start forgot the game setup on day 1?

[cayvie]

Yeah, I did realize that after I checked the setup again after O made his "when I flip scum, remember Eevee and Insomniac are my partners" comment. Not sure how you can read that as a scumslip though, first time someone who just had 3 games start forgot the game setup on day 1?

Good response. unvote.

[theorel]

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game. That it is the center of discussion means it holds value, as to which alignment can make that value theirs is up to everyone else in the game. My assertion, which can only be proven or disproven as the game progresses is that this tilts the field so that Scum does not hold the D1 advantage that they typically do.

Note: This is just a longer form of what Robz already stated

Ah, so the advantage is not that you are more trustworthy, it's that you've WIFOMed the scum?  It's good that you have all of these reasons stored up, so that every time we question one, you can pull out a new shiny reason. 

IMO WIFOMing scum by claiming VT is not very helpful.  Either you're telling the truth, and they have no need to NK you, or you're lying and 1. town has no reason to trust any information your PR will find out (I certainly wouldn't believe a Tracker-claim from you for instance), and 2. you're more likely to be lynched.  So, the ONLY way this can benefit town is if you are a non-investigative PR, which is relatively worthless once outed (such as doctor), but then you've set yourself up to be lynched day1, since any reasonable townie should consider you better than a PR lynch.

Maybe though you're underestimating the simple power of a PR where they can claim in order to prevent town from lynching them?  There's some level to where the town needs to be dubious of claims (else any scum can claim a duplicated PR to avoid a lynch), but it's like the whole power of an Innocent Child, and it is actually really helpful to town.  So, a doctor claim (which is believed) is actually a fairly powerful thing.  (it accounted for at least half the increase in win-% when adding PRs to the MVIII simulations)

BTW, all of this benefit is just as possible with a subtle SOFT-CLAIM of VT.  And then you might even still be trustworthy when you do claim a role later.  Alright, I think I can be done with that discussion now, although I probably won't be able to resist responding to PPS's next ingenious excuse for why claiming VT is not anti-town.

So, just in case this discussion does go nowhere: soft deadlines?  Anyone?  Does anyone think any PRs are confusing enough that we should discuss good ways to use them to help town? 
A glance-through suggests they should be pretty straightforward, except maybe when to use the 1-shot tracker.  I'm guessing holding it until at least mid-way through the game?  I know simulation suggested 1-shot cop was best night1, but tracker can't quite clear people like the cop can...so negative results are less useful.

[pingpongsam]

There is no "grand plan" except to never present the same face twice and to try different approaches instead of rehashing the same game style over and over again.

Robz is making cogent and reserved analysis of my play which has been intentionally rash and as a consequence is anti-town in many ways. I still maintain that it is pro-town in terms of throwing Scum off a typical D1. However, I am reading Robz as Towny even though his behavior is easily construed as persecuting me. I get similar reads form Theorel.

I don't know what a Mafia Eevee looks like but this Eevee looks like the Town Eevee we all know and love.

Jo's reaction to my play is more of the Scummy push I expected. I get the same vibe from Frisk but I'd be compelled to go ahead Vote: Jotheonah. Grujah feels suspicious but only slightly aside from neutral from where everyone else currently stands.

[sparky5856]

Ok well people I would currently be suspicious of are the ones that have voiced a desire to be on PPS's wagon but haven't done it or discussed anything else this game day. This includes

Cuzz
Captain_Frisk
Grujah
Jotheonah

Sparky has also been pretty hedgy in his few posts today so that seems a bit worrisome.

Joth has been driving the PPS case pretty hard, almost as hard as you Robz I just in this case suspect him a bit less than you.

I'm being hedgy to avoid jumping to any premature conclusions. I've said this in the past, I've seen too many games where premature conclusions have caused incorrect lynches.

I was reading through Mafia V today for the heck of it, I was sure Robz was scum skimming through Day 2, but I was wrong >_< I had a slight suspicion on yuma for not providing much input/staying to the sidelines, but practically everyone was convinced that he was town. And he turned out to be scum in the end.

Playing with Robz as mafia in Major Arcana Mafia, he stayed towards the sidelines a lot more than in this game. I did much of the same until I gathered multitudes of suspicions on me. What I'm getting at here is that I'm cautious of those that haven't provided much input on this PPS debacle. If he IS town, then at least a couple scum can sit back and not provide much input on the situation, but secretly hoping that he gets lynched, just because they want every last town dead. I was the same way Day 1 in MA Mafia. I voted for Insomniac, my partner, not contributing much to the last 10 pages of the day, and I was secretly hoping in the sidelines for eHunt to get lynched.

So. If PPS is indeed town, I would be suspicious of the semi-lurkers. Now what if PPS is scum? There's a couple different possible situations. I would still be cautious of semi-lurkers no matter what. Maybe Jo and Robz are pushing for the death of their scummate PPS, using him as bait just so they themselves look less suspicious. What the heck do I know. I'm calling what I rambled about before MUCH more likely.

Also UNVOTE: Cuzz. Time to get serious now. I'm gonna do this already. Get my initial thoughts out of the way.


ashersky - Slight town. Posted his opinions on PPS. I like his waffle comment on #88, that actually reads more town to me 
Robz888 - Already said, his behavior is much different this game than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Eevee - Very active. More of a town feeling from him, what PPS mentioned in #151 about him.
Captain_Frisk - Not much here. He's officially contributing to the PPS wagon. Is he scum wanting a speedy lynch? I say he's scum more than town at this point, but I want to see more from him.
cayvie - Not much at all. Neutral read
sparky5856 - Me? I like waffels. Does that make me suspicious?
jotheonah - Also hard on PPS, pushing for his lynch. Haven't played with him yet, so I can't gather a full read. I'll be wary though. Hey, I'm wary all around.
Insomniac - Questioning other players a lot. Seems like different play than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Grujah - Same feelings as Frisk. Something's not right here. Only two posts so far. And he wouldn't rest until I was in my grave in MA Mafia. Also he questioned my RVS vote lol. More scum than town.
Cuzz - Also not much, but he's been away.
pingpongsam - HEY HOWS IT GOIN
O - I've seen scum O push for other people's deaths to the brink, he hasn't done that yet here. Then again O is a dangerous player. Slight town right now.
theorel - All around helpful. Town vibes.

Also nice to see PPS giving reads, which is what I wanted. Honestly, I think he's more likely to turn up town than scum.

[Robz888]

I was reading through Mafia V today for the heck of it, I was sure Robz was scum skimming through Day 2, but I was wrong >_< I had a slight suspicion on yuma for not providing much input/staying to the sidelines, but practically everyone was convinced that he was town. And he turned out to be scum in the end.

+10000000 points for you, good sir. This is one of the more fundamentally town things you can do. (Unless you're hunting for scum help, in which case, shame on you.)

[sparky5856]

I was reading through Mafia V today for the heck of it, I was sure Robz was scum skimming through Day 2, but I was wrong >_< I had a slight suspicion on yuma for not providing much input/staying to the sidelines, but practically everyone was convinced that he was town. And he turned out to be scum in the end.

+10000000 points for you, good sir. This is one of the more fundamentally town things you can do. (Unless you're hunting for scum help, in which case, shame on you.)

I was just bored actually XD In all seriousness though, having experience does help. Knowing how everyone plays does help, a lot. I really should read games with PPS tbh, dunno why I went to Mafia V.

[Robz888]

I was reading through Mafia V today for the heck of it, I was sure Robz was scum skimming through Day 2, but I was wrong >_< I had a slight suspicion on yuma for not providing much input/staying to the sidelines, but practically everyone was convinced that he was town. And he turned out to be scum in the end.

+10000000 points for you, good sir. This is one of the more fundamentally town things you can do. (Unless you're hunting for scum help, in which case, shame on you.)

I was just bored actually XD In all seriousness though, having experience does help. Knowing how everyone plays does help, a lot. I really should read games with PPS tbh, dunno why I went to Mafia V.

If you want to learn about PPS, you'd have to look at MVII or MVI. He had some really masterful play in MVI, but that's one of the long ones.

As I often say, MIV is the best bang for your buck in terms of learning the characteristics of several important recurring players, and what constitutes smart mafia play and smart town play. Still my favorite game of all time.

[theorel]

So, I was thinking about the PRs in this game (in response to my own last post).  And there is at least one that I think we should probably discuss, the Hider.

Hider is a weak investigative role combined with an ability to avoid being NKed.  So, with weak investigators it's most beneficial to town if we can figure out who was investigated, since when a weak investigator chooses scum he dies.  An extra cool thing about the Hider is that he will *ONLY die if either his target is killed or he targets scum.  So, if we know who the hider targeted at night, we will either know that it was scum, or know that it was the scum-kill.  The tricky piece is that if the Hider is known to scum, and chooses a town player, the scum can kill the town player and get the Hider also for free.  For now, scum does not know who the hider is though, so ideally we could find a way for him to tell us who he's hiding behind tonight, on the occasion that he dies.  My thought therefore is the following:
Everyone in the town should say who they would hide behind if they were the Hider.  Then, if the Hider chooses to hide behind a scum-player, we'll be able to determine who it was tomorrow when the hider turns up dead.  If everyone does it, then we don't get the disadvantage of only the hider trying to subtly announce who he's going to hide behind.  Although, there's the possibility that scum will target someone who's the target of lots of "Hide"s in hopes of hitting the Hider.  I dunno, what do you guys think?

*=actually, glancing back over the power lists, a strongman kill I think could overcome the hiding power, and a bus-driver could swap the target with a scum-player.  Either of these could give false positives.  I don't know if that's enough to overcome the suggested strategy.

[Voltgloss]

*=actually, glancing back over the power lists, a strongman kill I think could overcome the hiding power, and a bus-driver could swap the target with a scum-player.  Either of these could give false positives.  I don't know if that's enough to overcome the suggested strategy.

Strongman kill overrides roleblocks/protections, but NOT hiding.  If the Hider hides behind someone else at night, and a Strongman killer tries to target the Hider directly, the Strongman kill will fail for lack of a target.

Hiding also occurs before Bus-driving.  The result of a cross between the two is resolved as follows:

- Say the Hider targets Player A, and the Bus Driver targets Players A and B.
- First, the Hider hides behind Player A.
- Then, the Bus Driver causes targeting of Players A and B to be swapped.  Anyone else targeting Player A will actually hit Player B; anyone else targeting Player B will actually hit Player A.
- Because the Hider is affected by anything targeting Player A, the target-swapping also affects the Hider in the sense that (1) anyone else targeting the Hider will actually hit Player B; and (2) anyone else targeting Player B will hit the Hider as well as hitting Player A.

Concrete example:  Say Hider targets Vanilla.  Say Bus Driver targets Vanilla and Scum.  Say Killer targets Hider.  Say Doctor targets Vanilla.  Say Tracker targets Scum.

Results:
- Hider hides behind Vanilla
- Bus Driver redirects targeting between Scum and between Vanilla/Hider
- Killer targets Hider but is redirected to Scum, which would nightkill Scum
- Doctor targets Vanilla but is redirected to Scum, protecting Scum (from the Killer's nightkill)
- Tracker targets Scum but is redirected to Vanilla/Hider.  Tracker gets a result on Vanilla ("No one") and a result on Hider ("Vanilla").

[theorel]

Ah, that makes sense, thanks Volt.

So, there can be no false positives if the Hider successfully informs town who he's hiding behind.  I personally think that makes it a good idea for everyone to say "If I were a Hider I would hide behind ____"
BUT, I would like other players to weigh in on the matter.  The reasons I see for and against can be summed up as:

-FOR: we use the weak investigative ability to its fullest by knowing who the hider targeted if he turns up dead.

-AGAINST: scum might have a better than usual chance of killing the hider with his target, if we as town choose insufficiently many targets, or if some town players refuse to participate.

Does anyone else have any reasons for or against it?  Does anyone think that it's a good idea/bad idea?

[jotheonah]

I think it's clever. But I wouldn't want to make the decision until just before deadline.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-4

Insomniac (1): theorel
Robz888 (1): Insomniac
pingpongsam (4): Robz888, jotheonah, Grujah, Captain_Frisk
jotheonah (2): Eevee, pingpongsam

Not voting {5}: Cuzz, O, ashersky, cayvie, sparky5856

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[theorel]

I think it's clever. But I wouldn't want to make the decision until just before deadline.

1. by deadline you mean lynch?  (we don't really want to go to deadline, this game)

2. decision of whether we should all claim hypothetical hiding targets, or decision about who your hypothetical hiding target is?

I think we should decide whether to do it earlier.  I'm fine if you don't want to choose a target until close to end-of-day...
But I think it would work best for people to give choices early and change them rather than everyone waiting until the last minute.  Waiting until the last-minute increases the probability that less townies claim a hide-target.

Okay, I thought of another reason against it: it will prove that various players aren't Hiders if their hide-target is NKed.  This could actually be enough of a reason not to do it...unless we try hard as town not to have too many players hypothetically hiding behind the same target.  Well, it's no danger if we only do it once, probably 2 times would still be okay?  But it certainly argues against long-term utility.

[jotheonah]

decision about who my HHT is, and right before lynch. Just because if I WERE Hider, I'd want flexibility in changing that decision up to the last minute based on the events of the day.

[Eevee]

theorel, that's definitely at least worth considering, good catch. However, if I was the hider (or any other power role for that matter), I surely wouldn't know my target this early - how could you? I think when we get closer to the lynch, everyone should just list their supposed target. Don't see a good reason for anyone to refuse to do so either. If it seems everyone is choosing the same guy or something, can't we just abort the plan before the lynch or even in the twilight?

I also agree we should probably agree on a soft deadline, because otherwise we'll all just be focusing on Robz's game. We are already sort of wasting time here actually. Would one week from now be good? I don't even remember what you originally suggested because it wasn't really commented much.

[Eevee]

decision about who my HHT is, and right before lynch. Just because if I WERE Hider, I'd want flexibility in changing that decision up to the last minute based on the events of the day.

Some non-hiders could "change their target" too to give the real hider some room to maneuver if he so decides. We might be overplanning this though, it isn't even guaranteed we have a hider.. Oh well, it's not like this is distracting any more useful conversation..

[Captain_Frisk]

@theorel - I think thats alot of work for the potential presence of a hider, and as Mr. Eevee points out - hider might want to mix things up - especially based on the details of the flip.

If we agree that a hider really should be trying to identify scum, then we could do something like:

The hider will target the next living player on the player list in post #1 after themselves  Scum can't really make use of it, and if someone dies with hider flavor - we'll know who it was.

Unfortunately, that does prevent the hider from directing his weak investigation, but it doesn't cause any additional town distraction.  Thoughts?

[cayvie]

Personally, I think the hider is kind of a bastard role, or at least a hard one to use effectively.

I think the correct play is to not use it most of the time.

[theorel]

Personally, I think the hider is kind of a bastard role, or at least a hard one to use effectively.

I think the correct play is to not use it most of the time.

I partially disagree.  I think it's a reasonable role, that is probably hard to use effectively.  It's a weak investigative role that can prevent a night-kill, or in some cases cause an extra one.  I think it should almost certainly be used every night.  Although after using it a couple days, if still alive, you could claim (clearing a couple other townies in the process) and then WIFOM scum as to whether you'll hide or not.  That's primarily why I brought it up though, is because I think roles that are tricky to use effectively might benefit from more analysis than just themselves.  Ultimately, wasting a power role because it's hard to use is going to harm the town.  I dunno, I think this idea makes it easier to use part of the role effectively, although I've ignored the protective part. 

For that part, I think the Hider wants to do everything he can to make himself a target of the mafia.  Playing as pro-town a game as he can in order to try to draw their fire.  This is essentially the role of a VT anyways, so it's not a big change, except that its not often how a PR would play.  Then using his power will more likely foil the mafia-kill.  Basically a hider wants to be the kind of player that a doctor would protect, because he's sort of his own doctor.

@Eevee: yeah, choice should probably be made late in the day.  Although it's not like you couldn't change an early choice.

@Frisk: This doesn't seem like a lot of work to me: "If I were a hider, I would hide behind Robz"  Yes Hider might want to change targets after the flip...I didn't consider it, because I can't see the alignment of the flip making a difference to me, if I were hider.  One could say, "If I were a hider, I don't know who I would hide behind" or "it would depend on the flip".  I mean, I think it would be good to be ABLE to use the weak investigation, but that doesn't mean we need to force the hider to make an early choice.  IMO any weak role (except maybe a vig) should breadcrumb their target beforehand, I just wanted to give an easy way for the weak role in this game to do it (assuming it exists).

[cayvie]

My argument is, that, assuming a baseline of 3 scum and 1 nightkill (most common outcome, I think):

Hider doesn't use ability = 1/10 = 10% chance of dying at night
Hider uses ability = 3/12 = 25% chance of dying at night

these don't even factor in the possibility of doctoring, or of the person the hider hides behind getting killed.

[Eevee]

Isn't finding a mafia member in the expense of the hider's life an ok trade though?

[cayvie]

Isn't finding a mafia member in the expense of the hider's life an ok trade though?

There's no guarantee we would, though!

In order for this to work, the hider would have to announce who they were targeting the previous day.

This would lead them right into the hands of a possible scum 1-shot bus driver!

[Eevee]

Isn't finding a mafia member in the expense of the hider's life an ok trade though?

There's no guarantee we would, though!

In order for this to work, the hider would have to announce who they were targeting the previous day.

This would lead them right into the hands of a possible scum 1-shot bus driver!

Have you forgotten the original topic? We are discussing everyone annoynching their "target" as if they were the hider to achieve this.

[theorel]

read volt's clarification above.  bus-driver effects after hider.  I believe there is 0 possibility of a false-positive from the hider.

The whole point of this though, is that we all essentially claim hider.  Then scum doesn't get a better idea of who to target.

[cayvie]

Mmm, ok, I get it now.

I'm basically wrong, I think.

[Cuzz]

I have no problem with doing this.

[cayvie]

I have no problem with doing this.

yeah, me neither.

[Eevee]

I have no problem with doing this.

yeah, me neither.

If it isn't clear by now, I'm cool with it too.

Btw, it's pretty important to remember that this then requires the hider to actually do what he claimed in the thread or else.. bad things can happen if he dies at night.

What do others think about assigning a soft deadline on next wednesday? Would give us some incentive to start scumhunting instead of this wonderfully interesting theory talk.

[theorel]

What do others think about assigning a soft deadline on next wednesday? Would give us some incentive to start scumhunting instead of this wonderfully interesting theory talk.

I'm fine with this as a deadline as well (I had originally suggested next Friday).  Number following comment is a scum-score.  It's out of 100.  It's not a %-chance.  Baseline is 30 (because it starts close to a %)

So, let's see where do I stand on people?
1 - ashersky: took the "defuse the situation" side in the PPS debacle.  Unsatisfied with the eventual answer.  Slightly town might be an overstatement, but null read would be too weak. scum_score: 28

2 - Robz888: Came out the gates firing at PPS.  He's helping to push town, which is good (complacent towns are bad).  Really the question is ultimately whether promoting division is pro-town.  I tend to find it kind of anti-town, OTOH, it helps get town moving day1.  For now I'm labeling it as a necessary evil, and noting Robz as slightly suspicious for it, but I'm happy he did it.  scum_score: 33

3 - Eevee: The most forceful of the PPS defusers.  Interesting in that he's promoting confrontation by trying to slow the game down.  I think that, although ultimately Eevee's goals seemed reasonably pro-town (i.e. trying to weaken the pressure on PPS, before it got (in his opinion) out of hand) his methods ended up increasing conflict.  I'm going to rank that as neutral for the moment.  So, with the rest of his posts (general joking around, and helping push along a couple theory discussions that I think will help town) I'm going with slight town.  scum_score: 25

4 - Captain_Frisk: He hasn't posted a lot.  Took the "increase pressure on pps" until he responds approach.  I don't care for how he's posted this game, but since he's only ever been scum (MV excepted I think?)...I don't have any real idea what a town Frisk would look like.  It's funny: I feel similar to him as Insomniac in terms of "always thinking he's scum".  But he's actually always been scum while Insomniac has always been town.  I still think it's probably a play-style thing.  Um, anyways, I'll still lean slightly-scum here for his confrontational style.  scum_score: 35

5 - cayvie: stayed out of the PPS debacle until it was winding down, with simply a note that she found PPS town.  Actually engaged in the theory discussion about the Hider, even to the point of changing her mind.  I probably over-credit changing your mind in any situation as pro-town behavior...but, I'm leaning town here. scum_score: 25

6 - sparky5856: not posting a lot, but I like the quality of his posts.  His posts regarding the PPS situation have been pretty good (i.e. analyzing it without really getting involved).  I think this is primarily pro-town behavior.  Also, giving initial thoughts on everybody.  I think he's probably town. scum_score: 20

7 - jotheonah: pushed the PPS-situation.  I dunno about jo.  I really didn't like this comment:

PPS is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

I suggest we either lynch him or move on to other topics and then lynch him.

While I actually don't think we have a better lynch-candidate at this point, I have faith that the next 7 days will either bring a better candidate or give better reasons to lynch pps.  I'm going with a minor scum-read on jo. scum_score: 38

8 - Insomniac: unvote.  He's so reasonable when no one suspects him of being scum.  Actually, I'm finding his posts this game to be generally pretty productive.  I'm hoping he keeps it up, rather than descending into snarky one-liners.  Of course, the snarky one-liner Insomniac is always town.  (But I do remember early MVI that Insom was pretty well-reasoned also.  I'll go with a moderate town-read here. scum_score: 25

9 - Grujah: he's lurking.  And he voted for pps.  I'm suspicious.  Although, he did suggest the soft-deadline which I happen to agree with.  I'm going to remain highly suspicious here if he doesn't start posting.  (Seriously, he has 2 posts total although he didn't "in" and didn't confirm, so that's only 2 less than Frisk in reality, 1 less than cuzz, and the same as O) scum_score: 35

10 - Cuzz: another lurker (3 game-posts).  Also expressed that he'd be happy with pps lynch, although he didn't vote in order to keep from a quick-lynch.  Anyways, a little less suspicious than Grujah, would also like to see him post more. scum_score: 35

11 - pingpongsam: Guilty of the VT-claim this game.  Claims shifting reasons for it, none of which really hold up.  Anti-town play always has the potential to just be bad town-play though.  And VT claims have always been this in the past.  A few others (like Cuzz and sparky at one point) have noted that he's the best lynch at this point.  This is so early in the day, that it's a meaningless comment.  He's really the only lynch-candidate at this point, and this point is a bad point for lynching.  Anyways I'm going with a moderate suspicion (which I guess is a minor scum-read?  Why do I have too many inconsistent ways of saying similar things, I should switch to numeric ratings, as a means to be readable...okay, I'll do that). scum_score: 40

12 - O: another with 2 game-posts.  Come on O, start some inflammatory day1 discussion, I know you're good at it.  Honestly his one comment I think is probably pretty useful.  And then he WIFOMed us with his scum-team.  So, stop lurking, but I'm going with a null-read right now.  (keep lurking and your score will go up)  scum_score: 30

13 - theorel.  Hi, I'm scum, but I'm playing an immaculately pro-town game.  So, I'm giving myself: scum_score: 0

NOTE: we're only 2 days in, so lurking at this point has so many explanations.  I'm remaining suspicious of it, because lurking is always anti-town behavior, even early day1.  I am hoping that more conversations will start up, but the fact is that as town you have to just say stuff or else those conversations won't happen.

Yep, that was a useful exercise.

[jotheonah]

thanks for admitting you're scum, theorel. really makes things easier.

[Cuzz]

thanks for admitting you're scum, theorel. really makes things easier.

I knew I sensed a scumslip in there on the first readthrough. Just couldnt put my finger on it.

Seriously though, I like when people post content like this so thanks (and yes of course scum can do it too but it still helps town unless it's full of lies which theorel's list is not). It does emphasize my feelings that no one had seemed all that scummy this game besides pps (everyone too distracted by Robz's game? I know I am to some degree).

For now encouraging more discussion is important if we want to keep to a deadline (which I agree with). I'd suggest anyone not sure of what to say should give their thoughts on theorel's list and on the hider suggestion.

I personally am still fine with a pps lynch if we get no better suggestions. I'd also like to hear more from grujah and O (maybe wishful thinking). Frisk is just always scum so obviously that means he's obvscum (or maybe obvtown; this is why I always lose at roulette).

[pingpongsam]

@theorel: why do you rank those pushing a pps lynch as being scummier with the motivation being pushing the pps lynch but then rank pps the scummiest. Seems contradictory to me as pushing a lynch onto the scummiest player should prove to be the least scummy thing to do right? I think that your answer to this question will stroke very close to the heart of the reason I played how I did.

[Eevee]

@theorel: why do you rank those pushing a pps lynch as being scummier with the motivation being pushing the pps lynch but then rank pps the scummiest. Seems contradictory to me as pushing a lynch onto the scummiest player should prove to be the least scummy thing to do right? I think that your answer to this question will stroke very close to the heart of the reason I played how I did.

Contributing to the lynch of a townie who everyone perceives to be scummy is an easy place for scum to hide though. They can't just never accuse anyone.
For the record I still find PPS towny and think we should lynch almost anyone else.

[pingpongsam]

@theorel: why do you rank those pushing a pps lynch as being scummier with the motivation being pushing the pps lynch but then rank pps the scummiest. Seems contradictory to me as pushing a lynch onto the scummiest player should prove to be the least scummy thing to do right? I think that your answer to this question will stroke very close to the heart of the reason I played how I did.

Contributing to the lynch of a townie who everyone perceives to be scummy is an easy place for scum to hide though. They can't just never accuse anyone.
For the record I still find PPS towny and think we should lynch almost anyone else.

Right, but theorel specifically ranked me the scummiest. Your line of reasoning works if he placed my rank lower than some of the others but he didn't. I find this fascinating and it deserves explanation.

[jotheonah]

@theorel: why do you rank those pushing a pps lynch as being scummier with the motivation being pushing the pps lynch but then rank pps the scummiest. Seems contradictory to me as pushing a lynch onto the scummiest player should prove to be the least scummy thing to do right? I think that your answer to this question will stroke very close to the heart of the reason I played how I did.

Contributing to the lynch of a townie who everyone perceives to be scummy is an easy place for scum to hide though. They can't just never accuse anyone.
For the record I still find PPS towny and think we should lynch almost anyone else.

Perhaps lynch everyone else ... at RANDOM?

[theorel]

@theorel: why do you rank those pushing a pps lynch as being scummier with the motivation being pushing the pps lynch but then rank pps the scummiest. Seems contradictory to me as pushing a lynch onto the scummiest player should prove to be the least scummy thing to do right? I think that your answer to this question will stroke very close to the heart of the reason I played how I did.

Contributing to the lynch of a townie who everyone perceives to be scummy is an easy place for scum to hide though. They can't just never accuse anyone.
For the record I still find PPS towny and think we should lynch almost anyone else.

Right, but theorel specifically ranked me the scummiest. Your line of reasoning works if he placed my rank lower than some of the others but he didn't. I find this fascinating and it deserves explanation.

I find them suspicious because they want to lynch you for your actions, I find you suspicious because your actions are suspicious.  I do not want to lynch you, I just find you the most suspicious player in the game.  People are over-reacting, and like making mistakes, over-reacting is a suspicious behavior.  Scum need to inflate anti-town behavior, making it seem worse than it is because they are trying to push a lynch on a town player.  However, town often also inflates anti-town behavior due to paranoia, misconceptions, or simple misunderstandings.

Your actions are anti-town, other players have reacted with anti-town behavior.  Their anti-town behavior does not make your behavior pro-town, it simply makes their behavior anti-town.  This is my primary judgement of scumminess at this time.  It's not the only way to read the game, but I find it to be most valuable, and certainly easiest for me to judge.  I have secondary weights that I apply including whether someone "feels" like scum, what partnerships make sense, and I'm sure other things as they come up.  I variously change priorities according to my whims of what feels most important at that time.  I do try to keep the pro-town/anti-townness as a major contributor regardless though.  Currently, I'm judging people primarily based on whether I view their contributions to the game to be pro-town or anti-town, although I think bits of other views sprinkle their way into my analysis.

[Insomniac]

So I read theorels post and I thought to myself really Frisk, Grujah and O are still lurkingish, this is weekdays when people tend to post and thats a lot of people to be missing from such a smallish game. Frisk explicitly seems to lurk when scum and in BMV he told me this was his plan because he was doing it more in all of his games which I took to mean he was doing it as town, but then he just kept flipping scum.

So Frisk (and others) come on out of lurking, I know how much you love to play this game.

[Captain_Frisk]

So I read theorels post and I thought to myself really Frisk, Grujah and O are still lurkingish, this is weekdays when people tend to post and thats a lot of people to be missing from such a smallish game. Frisk explicitly seems to lurk when scum and in BMV he told me this was his plan because he was doing it more in all of his games which I took to mean he was doing it as town, but then he just kept flipping scum.

So Frisk (and others) come on out of lurking, I know how much you love to play this game.

I posted 20 posts ago?

[Insomniac]

Hmm that's true and it actually had some valid content.

BTW to weigh in on the hider discussion I think having it predetermined is bad because it lets the scum know who to avoid and if the hider lies they look scummy which is pretty bad.

[theorel]

I guess I implied it in my previous post, but I'm going to say it directly.  I really totally don't understand why people feel suspicions need to be complementary rather than contradictory.  If I think that jo is suspicious and that pps is suspicious that doesn't mean that I think they're a scum-team.  It just means that they're both suspicious.  In fact, often suspicions will be counter to one another.  i.e. It's completely and utterly reasonable to feel like one and ONLY one of these two players are scum. 

Now, I don't really think that at the moment.  I don't think that either jo or pps must be scum.  I feel like they both contributed in suspicious ways to the only thing of substance that's happened so far this game.  For the record, I'd say a scum_score of about 60 is necessary for me to think you're a good lynch.  A scum_score of 1 is necessary for me to think you're a good deadline lynch.  I'm willing to vote for someone if I think it will be productive to give them a vote, pretty much regardless of how scummy I think they are.  I'm willing to lynch anyone around 30 or higher, if it seems like town will not be productive otherwise, although if there's time I might try to push for a higher scum_score.  Note: this is my attempt to add qualifications to what my quantitative measures mean, which are themselves arbitrary.  This is not pre-determined, but an attempt by me to determine about how I would expect the number to be used, and to let you know how I feel about votes and lynches in general.

[theorel]

Hmm that's true and it actually had some valid content.

BTW to weigh in on the hider discussion I think having it predetermined is bad because it lets the scum know who to avoid and if the hider lies they look scummy which is pretty bad.

I'm not sure what you mean.  Why would the scum know who to avoid, and why would the hider lie?

[Insomniac]

Hmm that's true and it actually had some valid content.

BTW to weigh in on the hider discussion I think having it predetermined is bad because it lets the scum know who to avoid and if the hider lies they look scummy which is pretty bad.

I'm not sure what you mean.  Why would the scum know who to avoid, and why would the hider lie?

Let's say we decide that we are all going to name a hider. Lets say we decided that PPS isn't scummy but still looks scummy, maybe it makes a lot of sense to hide behind PPS so a bunch of people target PPS. Then the mafia might choose to shoot from the not hiding behind PPS pool of people. Or even still if someone claims to be behind a mafia member the team obviously will not shoot that person, and that doesn't tell the town anything where as if the hider is smart and uses it in secret he could trick the mafia into shooting one of their own.

[ashersky]

So on the hider knowledge issue:  I think the best thing about knowing who the hider hides behind has to do with evaluating the hider's death.  If the hider says he will hide behind Eevee (for example only), then that night pps and the hider die, if we believe the hider hid behind Eevee, we know Eevee is mafia.  Again, that was all just an example.

How to we know the hider did what he said he would?  That's a trust/WIFOM thing.  Now, the chances of that happening aren't great, but they're okay.  If the hider chooses town, which is more likely, mafia can just kill them both and we learn only that they were in fact town.

So that's a non so clear way of saying I think the risks may outweigh the benefits, currently.  Maybe on D2 or D3?  But with a wide-open field like this, I don't know if it really helps.

[theorel]

Please note: I'm not trying to argue that my strategy is necessarily the best thing ever, and should be followed unquestioningly.  I totally appreciate your input Insomniac.  The questions below are not rhetorical, I might be overlooking something.  That's why I wanted you to clarify.  I think I'm NOT overlooking those downsides, and I think that the upsides outweigh them.  It's possible I am overlooking some downsides though, and it's also possible that I'm undervaluing those already mentioned.

I think, if a bunch of people name PPS as the person to hide behind (and he's not scum), then scum should target pps. 

Honestly, IMO if scum decides to start targeting scummy players for NKs, then that's actually kind of good for town...normally scum would want to target cleared or strong-town players.  But I do agree that this is a reason against it.  The other reason IMO is that in this situation, if the proposed target dies (without taking the "hider") or if the target is scum, then this gives away that certain players are not in fact hiders. 

I personally think if the fake-hiders make a concerted effort NOT to all choose the same person, that the benefits outweigh the potential downsides (i.e. fingering scum is a pretty big upside, so having the possibility (which exists unless the hider chooses not to use his power) that the hider dies, or that he exists in a narrower pool of players, seems minor to me.)  I mean, the question is: what is the hider's value? 

Is it the ability to cancel a NK?  If so, then we want to keep the pool of possible hiders as large as possible, in order that scum is likelier to target him, and this is a bad plan.  Also, he should be hiding, and hoping that he doesn't target scum.

Is his main power a can't-be-deceived investigation result?  In that case, town needs to know his target.  (Note: it's very important here that his investigation CANNOT BE DECIEVED...i.e. he DIES if he targets scum, and nothing can prevent this.  He LIVES if he targets town, UNLESS the town dies also.  This is what makes me lean towards Hider being more a weak investigator than a NK-canceler.  This strategy came up because I'm viewing the hider as a very-weak investigator that happens to be immune to NKs.)

I may be over-valuing investigation over NK-prevention.  Do you think that I am, or is it something else?

Oh, other random benefit: Any benefit the scum get in choosing a target, the vig gets the inverse benefit.

@ashersky: mafia can kill hider with his target as long as hider chooses a target.  Now, if you think the hider shouldn't use his power day1, that's possible.  I don't agree, but that doesn't make me right.

[Insomniac]

Theorel I absolutely think that cop/investigation powers are super strong, but so is cancelling the mafia NK. I think with announced targets the mafia will be able to deduce who the hider is eventually ideally the hider would find a mafia first but thats not necessarily what will happen. I'm not super opposed to it or super for it yet just trying to think about the repercussions.

That said I am probably wrong. From the mafia-scum wiki hider page.

"Use and Power

Hider is stronger than Weak Cop in that it cannot be directly killed at Night. This in turn allows it to claim safely and give its targets in advance. In that way, it is a superbly powerful investigative role limited only by the complications that can result from having actions copied onto itself or dying when it investigates scum."

[sparky5856]

Sorry that I haven't been as active as of late >_< And I'll only have to give general thoughts here; have to leave for class in a bit.

I perfectly agree that scum-hunting needs to become a higher priority as Eevee mentioned, and that a soft deadline is necessary. The reason why I listed my thoughts on everyone (besides trying to organize my OWN thoughts) is to get a start on the scumhunting/provide a transition from PPS-hunting to general-hunting. And theorel has now made a similar list, which mostly agrees with my own opinions. (The fact that we both think we're town is the most obvious agreement.) If everyone made such a list it would maybe get the ball rolling.

Hider hurts my brain >_< I wish I could take a Mafia Theory course in college. I'll have to thoroughly read over those posts to gather opinions on them, something I don't have time for now. (I'm expecting that tonight I'll be back.)

[theorel]

Looking over at the V/LA thread I see that Grujah's been busy with real-life stuff.  So, I'm officially lowering his scum-score to 31.  I know that these scores are extremely important to all of you, so I wanted to be sure to share my decision. 

Of course, he should still come post in the game in order that I can increase his score again for actual scummy actions.  Um, other than that, we need more discussion.  Um...jo, I refuse to acknowledge anything reasonable you've said, and declare you obvscum for suggesting that we use a random lynch.  Just because it worked in a game that's still going on and I can't comment on, doesn't mean it would work here.  Of course, you are prohibited from defending yourself until that game completes, so this means that you need to come up with an outrageous defense that ignores this argument and instead does something like insult my character.

Um...also you pushed the pps thing, and said we should lynch him after moving on, rather than considering that perhaps moving on would actually give us a better target.  So, yeah, respond to my accusations so that I can find a minor scum-slip to quibble about in your response.  This way you will be confirmed scum, and I can feel okay about lynching you.

[cayvie]

Hider targets seem like a good thing to popcorn, actually;

one player starts, and declares who they're hiding behind, then that player declares, etc., making sure to choose an unused target, and, heck, trying not to loop until the end.

[Eevee]

@theorel
Te only person who "random voted" for Frisk day1 in ZM2 was his scumbuddy. It wasn't the random lynch that did it, but rather the different deadline rule blitz games have.

One other thing, I disagree that mistakes are scummy. Not saying they are towny either, I would say neutral or maybe slightly towny. Note: I'm talking about genuine mistakes, not scum gambits which we can hopefully recognize.

[jotheonah]

Ok, seriously guys. We are frittering away our spare deadline time by not talking and dense theory talk.

PPS said/did something scummy. He hasn't offered an even moderately convincing defense. We all sort of agreed to wait on that lynch while we discussed things, but I don't feel we're accomplishing much.

I would suggest we "Fake Hider Target Claim" and then lynch PPS.

I know lots of people will say I'm scummy for trying to rush us into a Day 1 lynch. But I think it's anti-town to wait for the sake of waiting, especially with bankable deadlines, and I, for one, don't have much else to say. Thoughts?

[O]

PPS has done nothing scummy.

[Insomniac]

PPS has done nothing scummy.

This, I don't think PPS is scummy enough to warrant being lynched.

[jotheonah]

Ok, well then lets get this scum hunt moving some other way then. The day has quite stalled.

[Eevee]

PPS has done nothing scummy.

This, I don't think PPS is scummy enough to warrant being lynched.

Me neither. I'm going to reread some of the less active guys tomorrow and start campaigning to lynch one that seems the scummiest. I hope others take the time to try find us an alternative target too! This game is still so short, reading back won't take that long.. especially if you only consider on the lurkers.

[cayvie]

Okay, guys, I'm starting this.

If I'm the hider, I'm hiding behind Insomniac tonight

Ins, you go next! Keep this train a-chugging!

[Insomniac]

If I'm the hider I'm hiding behind Eevee.
Eevee that means your up, keep those hides popping!

[O]

soooo derptastic, this means A) any town that chooses a scum person will not be targeted because if they're hider they'll die
B) Scum kill someone and there's extra kills somewhere and we wonder if the person they hid behind is scum


I should lurk less, because you come up with ideas like this when I don't.

[O]

Scum finds and kills hider* which I guess is less problematic since they don't have a rolecop, I forgot.

[cayvie]

The only real flaw I see is that the hider will have to choose a new target if their target gets lynched.

Not a huge flaw, really.

Also, your option B is kinda easy; are the two dead people the Hider and the person they Hid behind? If not, then the person the Hider hid behind is scum. If so, very very very bad luck.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm more offended at the total amount of text devoted to discussion of hider strategy - which MIGHT NOT EVEN BE IN THE GAME - plus early calling who you will target as hider seems pointless.

Hows this:

If I'm the hider - I will index the people who are alive @ nightfall and are not actively targeted by another hider wannabe - in order of the player list in post 1.  I will take the seconds # from the day 1 locking post mod it by the # of potential targets, and target the resulting player (ie if there are 3 players (players #0, #1, and #2), and the post ends at 13:13:13 - I will target 13 % 3 = 1 => player #1)

[cayvie]

I'm more offended at the total amount of text devoted to discussion of hider strategy - which MIGHT NOT EVEN BE IN THE GAME - plus early calling who you will target as hider seems pointless.

Hows this:

If I'm the hider - I will index the people who are alive @ nightfall and are not actively targeted by another hider wannabe - in order of the player list in post 1.  I will take the seconds # from the day 1 locking post mod it by the # of potential targets, and target the resulting player (ie if there are 3 players (players #0, #1, and #2), and the post ends at 13:13:13 - I will target 13 % 3 = 1 => player #1)

I guess that's fine; it's not essential that everyone have a potential hider behind them. I don't see the beef with early calling, though.

[Captain_Frisk]

Early calling means you aren't thinking about how to target scum.

[Robz888]

I don't have much to contribute on the hiding front--I'm hiding from the Hider debate, if you like--but no one has stuck out to me so far as being a better lynch than PPS.

[pingpongsam]

I don't have much to contribute on the hiding front--I'm hiding from the Hider debate, if you like--but no one has stuck out to me so far as being a better lynch than PPS.

You mean to say there's no better lynch than to hit Town D1?

[Robz888]

I don't have much to contribute on the hiding front--I'm hiding from the Hider debate, if you like--but no one has stuck out to me so far as being a better lynch than PPS.

You mean to say there's no better lynch than to hit Town D1?

Well I don't think you're town, relative to others.

[sparky5856]

Yeah Frisk is right, the hider might not even be in this game >___< As long as we're pointlessly talking about theory, I wanna talk about the Role Cop and Gunsmith. Role Cop is obviously more powerful, but he still has one problem: investigating a Goon or Border Villager is basically an "idunnolol" when it comes to whether the player you targeted is scum or not. That person is either a VT... or scum. I'm considering what happens though if a Gunsmith targets the same person. If they are a Border Villager, then they will NOT have a gun... and they are clean. If they DO have a gun though, that guarantees that they are a Mafia Goon.

Trying to coordinate this may be trouble though. For one, there can be multiple gunsmiths, and if they all end up targeting the same person along with the Role Cop, that's wasted investigations by the extra gunsmiths. Also, there's not many vanilla roles compared to power roles; I'm gonna say roughly 2/3 of the roles are PR's. Therefore it's much more likely the Role Cop will hit such a role, and thus all of this rambling is pointless.

Something to consider though, is if we nail both a Mafia JOAT and Schemer. Then, the only mafia roles left are Goons, so the only way the Role Cop can nail potential scum is by getting a "Vanilla" result. At that point it'll be crucial for gunsmiths to investigate the same person; what the gunsmiths are essentially finding out is whether that same player is scum or not scum.

This is probably more useful later on in the game than now. With so many PR's comes a lot of speculation. One thing I request though: an investigate role NEEDS to target PPS >_< Because this is driving the town insane.

I mean, the only good reason I see for this early of a PPS lynch is to bank time for later days, which actually is quite a good reason. But is it even worth it in the case that PPS flips town? Everyone who's gunning for him now needs to consider that. I as well need to consider that. Would we need more time for later days? Would we learn more in later days because we have night information? Which essentially makes Day 1 Stab-In-The-Dark-And-Get-It-Done-As-Quickly-As-Possible day? The thing that makes me uncomfortable is how quickly the stab happened (practically when the day began), which discussing about is the primary reason to stay in Day 1. (Along with semi-constructive Hider talk.) But hey, we can do that in later days too. That doesn't have to be in Day 1.

There I go, I love to ramble. I'm not confident that PPS is town, but I still feel that he's more likely town than scum.

[O]

Yeah Frisk is right, the hider might not even be in this game >___< As long as we're pointlessly talking about theory, I wanna talk about the Role Cop and Gunsmith. Role Cop is obviously more powerful, but he still has one problem: investigating a Goon or Border Villager is basically an "idunnolol" when it comes to whether the player you targeted is scum or not. That person is either a VT... or scum. I'm considering what happens though if a Gunsmith targets the same person. If they are a Border Villager, then they will NOT have a gun... and they are clean. If they DO have a gun though, that guarantees that they are a Mafia Goon.

Trying to coordinate this may be trouble though. For one, there can be multiple gunsmiths, and if they all end up targeting the same person along with the Role Cop, that's wasted investigations by the extra gunsmiths. Also, there's not many vanilla roles compared to power roles; I'm gonna say roughly 2/3 of the roles are PR's. Therefore it's much more likely the Role Cop will hit such a role, and thus all of this rambling is pointless.

Something to consider though, is if we nail both a Mafia JOAT and Schemer. Then, the only mafia roles left are Goons, so the only way the Role Cop can nail potential scum is by getting a "Vanilla" result. At that point it'll be crucial for gunsmiths to investigate the same person; what the gunsmiths are essentially finding out is whether that same player is scum or not scum.

This is probably more useful later on in the game than now. With so many PR's comes a lot of speculation. One thing I request though: an investigate role NEEDS to target PPS >_< Because this is driving the town insane.

I mean, the only good reason I see for this early of a PPS lynch is to bank time for later days, which actually is quite a good reason. But is it even worth it in the case that PPS flips town? Everyone who's gunning for him now needs to consider that. I as well need to consider that. Would we need more time for later days? Would we learn more in later days because we have night information? Which essentially makes Day 1 Stab-In-The-Dark-And-Get-It-Done-As-Quickly-As-Possible day? The thing that makes me uncomfortable is how quickly the stab happened (practically when the day began), which discussing about is the primary reason to stay in Day 1. (Along with semi-constructive Hider talk.) But hey, we can do that in later days too. That doesn't have to be in Day 1.

There I go, I love to ramble. I'm not confident that PPS is town, but I still feel that he's more likely town than scum.

Gunsmith is more powerful than rolecop, methinks.

[Cuzz]

The thing that makes me uncomfortable is how quickly the stab happened (practically when the day began), which discussing about is the primary reason to stay in Day 1. (Along with semi-constructive Hider talk.) But hey, we can do that in later days too. That doesn't have to be in Day 1.

I think the reason the stab happened practically when the day began was because pps did something that many consider to be egregiously anti-town practically when the day began.

I'm still thinking he's the scummiest. I really just don't understand a townie doing something like that. His explanations seem to boil down to being crazy in order to f*** with scum, but f***ing with people is not pro-town. It's exactly what scum does.

Now for those who will be annoyed for "not talking about anything but pps" I'll put it out there that I'd hide behind Robz. Though talking about the hider thing will piss off Frisk and O so what can you do.

[cayvie]

vote: sparky5856

For various little things. He comes out of the gate in PPS's corner, repeatedly defending and delaying for him:

(PPS is on vacation this week. I'm not expecting a response from him anytime soon. At least, I'm not holding my hopes up. I just hope that we're not making mountains out of a molehill. So, let's try to find some other topic in the meantime? Or someone could summarize to me how PPS's behavior relates to his stunt on the very first page.)

I've got my head scratching. IS it good to push for a lynch already, so that we have more time for later days? PPS is the most likely candidate at this point because of theorel's observations. I'm all for useful players, but if we can't take someone's reads seriously... then what's the point?

But, we have three real-days every game-day don't we? So no, no lynch yet. I want PPS to provide actual reads before anything else happens. THEN we'll see how useful they are.

Also nice to see PPS giving reads, which is what I wanted. Honestly, I think he's more likely to turn up town than scum.

And then he busts out with this:

The reason why I listed my thoughts on everyone (besides trying to organize my OWN thoughts) is to get a start on the scumhunting/provide a transition from PPS-hunting to general-hunting.

There's a tacit assumption in this statement that PPS-hunting is going to be fruitless. I don't know, I'm just getting the feeling that sparky knows PPS's alignment.

This is probably more useful later on in the game than now. With so many PR's comes a lot of speculation. One thing I request though: an investigate role NEEDS to target PPS >_< Because this is driving the town insane.

Also there's some blatant D1 cop direction. Good times.

[Grujah]

Hi. I had a MTG/AGOT playfest so I was V/LA, and I have a temp job at beer fest till sunday.

@sparky - yes, I did question your random vote. It was not RVS, we were actually discussing something important. You came and contribute nothing, and voting for no reason. It is anti-town. Also doing stupid stuff and blaming it on RVS is anti-town, and you are doing it.

@Hider issue - I'll go with the "target next player" plan, so I'll target Cuzz (or PPS if Cuzz dies) if I am the hider.

@PPS issue - the more he talks the less understanding I have, he is hellbent on the fact that it is somehow "pro-town". I  don't see how his move gives more headache to scum than to town, if he's town scum can just leave him alive and push for him, which won't be hard given that he won't be favourite guy D2 either. Blargh.

[sparky5856]

>_<

When I said general hunting I did not imply sparky-hunting. That's less productive than anything >_< It appears clarifications are necessary.

vote: sparky5856

For various little things. He comes out of the gate in PPS's corner, repeatedly defending and delaying for him:

(PPS is on vacation this week. I'm not expecting a response from him anytime soon. At least, I'm not holding my hopes up. I just hope that we're not making mountains out of a molehill. So, let's try to find some other topic in the meantime? Or someone could summarize to me how PPS's behavior relates to his stunt on the very first page.)

I've got my head scratching. IS it good to push for a lynch already, so that we have more time for later days? PPS is the most likely candidate at this point because of theorel's observations. I'm all for useful players, but if we can't take someone's reads seriously... then what's the point?

But, we have three real-days every game-day don't we? So no, no lynch yet. I want PPS to provide actual reads before anything else happens. THEN we'll see how useful they are.

Also nice to see PPS giving reads, which is what I wanted. Honestly, I think he's more likely to turn up town than scum.

And then he busts out with this:

The reason why I listed my thoughts on everyone (besides trying to organize my OWN thoughts) is to get a start on the scumhunting/provide a transition from PPS-hunting to general-hunting.

There's a tacit assumption in this statement that PPS-hunting is going to be fruitless. I don't know, I'm just getting the feeling that sparky knows PPS's alignment.

I haven't played with PPS before so I don't know his behavior patterns yet, but I read his pre-game claim as just some pre-game talk to get hyped up for the game, not something to be taken seriously. That may or nay not be the case but I read it as such. And with the way other players have been brutally attacking him it just feels like he shouldn't be lynched for that and that he may end up being town after all. I implied in my last post that I don't know his alignment, but I'm not willing to take the risk of finding out by lynching him primarily for something that happened before the game even officially started. I'm not a very risky player. >_<

And general-hunting does not exclude anyone. -grumble- even me -grumble- And it doesn't exclude PPS, as he's not in the clear, as in "confirmed townie" clear. I was just trying to offer possible alternatives, not in definite-scum, but possible-scum and brainstorm from there.

Now for those who will be annoyed for "not talking about anything but pps" I'll put it out there that I'd hide behind Robz. Though talking about the hider thing will piss off Frisk and O so what can you do.

If at least someone is concerned that "not talking about anything but PPS" is frowned upon, I feel it's desirable to broaden the suspicion pool.

This is probably more useful later on in the game than now. With so many PR's comes a lot of speculation. One thing I request though: an investigate role NEEDS to target PPS >_< Because this is driving the town insane.

Also there's some blatant D1 cop direction. Good times.

The "NEEDS" was an exaggeration, although I didn't really make it clear there. You're right on that one.

Gunsmith is more powerful than rolecop, methinks.

I was liking Role Cop more because he has the possibility of finding scum guaranteed, if he investigates the JOAT or Schemer. He can also find town PR's and confirm them as town. Although, if Gunsmith finds an armed player, that automatically means they're an important role (most of them deadly), and that has a sizable possibility of occuring. There's also a sizable possibility of not finding a gun on someone, which confirms them as town. Both roles have their uses.

@sparky - yes, I did question your random vote. It was not RVS, we were actually discussing something important. You came and contribute nothing, and voting for no reason. It is anti-town. Also doing stupid stuff and blaming it on RVS is anti-town, and you are doing it.

Yes it was RVS I was having fun, even though we were seriously discussing I had to get it out there In my RVS post though I didn't just place the vote (I asked about PPS's general behavior most notably), and I posted more thoughts shortly after. Point is I tried to contribute to the appropriate discussions. I also did unvote, given that it was an RVS vote and all. And saying that "I'm doing it" implies that I still am doing it when at this point the RVS is gone. I don't see any of my recent discussions now as "stupid stuff".

About PPS, here's what I'll do, I'll probably analyze his posts more closely and then decide if he's worthy for a lynch.

[Grujah]

By "stupid stuff" I meant coming into an active discussion with a RVS vote. Maybe it wasn't clear.

[Grujah]

Also it was not RVS as Robz actually put up a valuable discussion before RVS started.

[pingpongsam]

I never stated my play to be pro-town in fact I specifically called it anti-town.  The idea is to stay alive. A dead D1 towny is completely useless and entirely anti-town. Having just come out of a game as the D1 mislynch I'd like to not only avoid the gallows but put scum up there D1. If I get NK'd N1 but this play hangs scum D1 then I consider it a perfect success.

[Grujah]

You did.

Robz is making cogent and reserved analysis of my play which has been intentionally rash and as a consequence is anti-town in many ways. I still maintain that it is pro-town in terms of throwing Scum off a typical D1.

[Captain_Frisk]

I never stated my play to be pro-town in fact I specifically called it anti-town.  The idea is to stay alive. A dead D1 towny is completely useless and entirely anti-town. Having just come out of a game as the D1 mislynch I'd like to not only avoid the gallows but put scum up there D1. If I get NK'd N1 but this play hangs scum D1 then I consider it a perfect success.

? ? ?

[jotheonah]

This is why I keep saying PPS lynch is

obsequious lynch?
devious lynch?
creepiest lynch?

Those barely rhyme and none of them say what I want to say.

Ping Pong Sam lynch is Sing a song and jam lynch.

What I'm trying to say is, let's lynch this guy who just admitted to intentional anti-town play.

[Cuzz]

I never stated my play to be pro-town in fact I specifically called it anti-town.  The idea is to stay alive. A dead D1 towny is completely useless and entirely anti-town. Having just come out of a game as the D1 mislynch I'd like to not only avoid the gallows but put scum up there D1. If I get NK'd N1 but this play hangs scum D1 then I consider it a perfect success.

Yeah, so many things wrong with this. Admitting anti-town behavior. "The idea is to stay alive." Saying it's all in the name of lynching scum despite utter lack of active scumhunting so far. Expecting a NK N1 despite claiming VT (?)


Vote: pingpongsam. That's L-2 by my count and I'm ok with that.

[O]

so scum is either pushing hard for this townie lynch or bussing a teammate D1 for super-duper-cred (after all, scum would never POLICY LYNCH another scum D1, right?). Either way I see a scummy wagon.

I think its possible they all concocted this up from pregame, actually.

[jotheonah]

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

[Cuzz]

Or there's only town on the wagon. Or there's an SK. I'm not saying which is most likely but there are other possibilities.

[O]

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

vote for me then, if you think I'm scum

vote: Jotheonah

[ashersky]

I'll Vote: Robz.

I think I learned my lesson ignoring/believing silent/lurky Robz.  But really, no content to speak of, hiding from the hider chatter, on the pps wagon (an easy place for scum to sit if they want)...

Let's see some Robz!

[jotheonah]

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

vote for me then, if you think I'm scum

vote: Jotheonah

mmk. Vote: O

[Voltgloss]

After an extended chat on the merits of hiding until this all blows over, the town finally realized "hey we've got these votes sitting around, might as well use 'em."

Vote Count 1-5

Robz888 (2): Insomniac, ashersky
pingpongsam (4): Robz888, Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (3): Eevee, pingpongsam, O
sparky5856 (1): cayvie
O (1): jotheonah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[pingpongsam]

You did.

Robz is making cogent and reserved analysis of my play which has been intentionally rash and as a consequence is anti-town in many ways. I still maintain that it is pro-town in terms of throwing Scum off a typical D1.

LOL, fair enough, I called it both.

[sparky5856]

 

No matter who you are, why would you intentionally play anti-town? Unless he wants to die? The only role that has an ability upon death is vengeful townie, but I don't see much of a purpose to immediately get killed. I'm gonna start my analysis now.

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative.

Isn't that the case with anyone though? I guess the key word here is "suddenly". But wasting the whole game intentionally steering the town in the wrong direction?

So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

So that's why he claimed; he thinks it's clumsy scum play to claim VT this early. But it's currently attracting a lot of suspicion. If he is town, then it's quite a bold move. If he is scum, then he DOES consider it worthy scum-play, since, well, he did it. His arguments could go either way, which doesn't help in the purposes of defending himself, which is what we were asking to begin with.

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

This is actually a valid observation, in general. If he is scum then he's speaking really ambiguously. It's completely true if he's town though.

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

Scum want to leave in suspicious players. Which happens to be you.

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game. That it is the center of discussion means it holds value, as to which alignment can make that value theirs is up to everyone else in the game. My assertion, which can only be proven or disproven as the game progresses is that this tilts the field so that Scum does not hold the D1 advantage that they typically do.

Not following you here. I especially don't understand the "implied VT". Most start out with a PR, and while they may not get to use their powers immediately, they still want to defend their powers. And the last bit (scum not holding the D1 advantage) needs some clarifying. He only mentions it briefly.

UGHHHH I'm done. Defenses do not make sense >_< He could flip either way, but the fact that he specifically called his stunt anti-town is questionable. I did say before that he's more likely to turn up town, now it's about even. My previous assertion before was me being over-cautious for a mislynch. But as I also said before, maybe it's beneficial to have an early Day 1 lynch. What jo said:

I know lots of people will say I'm scummy for trying to rush us into a Day 1 lynch. But I think it's anti-town to wait for the sake of waiting, especially with bankable deadlines, and I, for one, don't have much else to say. Thoughts?

(If jo himself is scum I just made myself look bad there. >_> He's attracting too much attention with his audacity.)

Bottom line: PPS is a living breathing WIFOM. He can go either way almost 50-50 imo, and analyzing just leads to time-delays in the case of him, because nothing good is coming out of it. Vote time?

I'll Vote: Robz.

I think I learned my lesson ignoring/believing silent/lurky Robz.  But really, no content to speak of, hiding from the hider chatter, on the pps wagon (an easy place for scum to sit if they want)...

Let's see some Robz!

Indeed, Robz has turned lurky again. He's accruing scum points by the hour lol.

[pingpongsam]

All I want to achieve this game is to put scum on the gallows D1. Manage that and Town can make the rest of the game without me. If Mafia doesn't NK me out of spite Town will lynch me D2. But it will be worth it for hanging scum D1. There are 2 wagons and one of them is full of town looking to hang a Mafia. Hang me and perpetuate the D1 mislynch f.ds is so "good" at.

[sparky5856]

Let me go back to this quote:

So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

I am what I say I am and the outrage erupting is from scum trying to gain control of the game. Even if I get NK'd N1 those pushing this wagon in D1 look out of place.

So, you were expecting a reaction such as those that Robz and Jo gave? I will admit, you DID change the flow of the game with your stunt lol. If we do hit scum D1 because of it though, why does that set you up for lynch D2? I'm still missing some pieces of your arguments.

The wagon that's...

full of town looking to hang a Mafia.

is jo's wagon? I can understand his arguments for sure. But the way he's pushing those arguments (being forceful) does seem suspicious. Totally possible he's scum. But it's also totally possible that he's not. And that's what I don't get about your reasoning. All the scum could be off to the sidelines with popcorn and Pepsi.

Hang me and perpetuate the D1 mislynch f.ds is so "good" at.

Guilt trip = no.

[O]

Vote: Robz

Joth omgus is a town omgus (scum would passively avoid omgus while staying on PPS wagon), but I still see a scummy wagon

[Robz888]

so scum is either pushing hard for this townie lynch or bussing a teammate D1 for super-duper-cred (after all, scum would never POLICY LYNCH another scum D1, right?). Either way I see a scummy wagon.

I think its possible they all concocted this up from pregame, actually.

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

vote for me then, if you think I'm scum

vote: Jotheonah

mmk. Vote: O

I will also vote for O. I didn't care for this reaction at all. It might actually be in keeping with O's general behavior, but O's general behavior is scum decently often, so it strikes me as worth a vote. I agree with Jo. Vote: O

[Robz888]

PPE, I did not know that O was about to vote for me. If you don't believe that, fine.

[O]

I believe you, you very much could be rushing to Joth's defense instead of OMGUSING me.

[O]

Rushing to Joth's defense as in gaining towncred, not implying joth is scum.

[Robz888]

I'll Vote: Robz.

I think I learned my lesson ignoring/believing silent/lurky Robz.  But really, no content to speak of, hiding from the hider chatter, on the pps wagon (an easy place for scum to sit if they want)...

Let's see some Robz!

I think it's unfair to say that I am on the PPS wagon. I started the PPS wagon, and did the fundamental work of interrogating PPS over behavior that I think most people agree is offensive and possibly scummy. Whether PPS turns out to be scum or not, I think I stand on the correct side of that argument.

I avoided the hider argument because I have nothing to contribute to it. Really, analyzing good use of powers is Theorel's department, not mine. As I've said 100 times before, I don't contribute for the sake of contributing. I talk when I have something worthwhile to add.

[jotheonah]

I believe you, you very much could be rushing to Joth's defense instead of OMGUSING me.

but I thought I was townie?

[O]

Rushing to Joth's defense as in gaining towncred, not implying joth is scum.

I believe you, you very much could be rushing to Joth's defense instead of OMGUSING me.

but I thought I was townie?

 

[jotheonah]

I pretty much never get a scum read on Robz. Sometimes I can convince myself to vote him based on evidence, but he's really very good at seeming town to me.

Basically if Robz is to be lynched, you probably can't count on me to be on that wagon.

O, on the other hand, I will usually defend even if he's being obnoxious, because it's a pro-town kind of obnoxious (in fact, O is the only one I know who actually can pull off pro-town obnoxious).

But this game O has seemed a little more intentional and invested. He really does seem like he's trying to be the superhero that saves town PPS from lynch. If O is scum, I think PPS is probably actually town.

So I appreciate O's vote of confidence, but I think he's scummy and will leave my vote on him.

[O]

After MVIII, MIX I realized how much more fun it is to be a townie than scum. All these attacks on me just bounce off.

[pingpongsam]

After MVIII, MIX I realized how much more fun it is to be a townie than scum. All these attacks on me just bounce off.

Cripes, I found being scum to be far more fun. Something about knowing makes the game more fun. I find Town play very difficult to enjoy.

[Robz888]

I think I enjoy playing scum more, but sometimes it's really liberating to be town, because I just post whatever I want without worrying.

[O]

I think I enjoy playing scum more, but sometimes it's really liberating to be town, because I just post whatever I want without worrying.

this. Plus you're always at least half right in all the arguments.

[Insomniac]

I think Robz is pretty scummy especially with all his reaction lately to the added pressure from O playing the O game.

[cayvie]

I haven't yet been Mafia on these forums. I like being town though!

Being an overpowered recruiting SK was actually less fun because I didn't even have to try, really. I just trolled with Galz and made up stuff.

Okay, that was actually pretty fun.

[Insomniac]

I haven't yet been Mafia on these forums. I like being town though!

Being an overpowered recruiting SK was actually less fun because I didn't even have to try, really. I just trolled with Galz and made up stuff.

Okay, that was actually pretty fun.

Us mafia would have won too if they had listened to me conspiracy theory that you were an SK day 2 when you claimed vig.

[Eevee]

I really liked this case. Vote: sparky

I still think PPS is town. The fact that no one but O seems to agree with me makes me think me feel even better about this read. Very early wagon on day 1, an excellent player, everyone is after him.. have you seen this before? Has it ever ended well (before anyone brings up blitz2, this is analogous to joth wagon in that game).

I would hide behind PPS, if you fools lynch him lets say ashersky.

[Robz888]

I think Robz is pretty scummy especially with all his reaction lately to the added pressure from O playing the O game.

What is pretty scummy?

[Robz888]

I could have sworn everyone was saying how town I was, like, 5 seconds ago.

[cayvie]

Haha. Maybe. My recruiting ability and NK would have passed on to Galz though.

We were seriously overpowered. Also we had daychat.

Back to this game, does PPS here remind anyone of timchen in BMM1? That's kind of where I'm at.

Sure, reads on everyone, why not.

1 - ashersky: moderate scum. Calls Robz out for sitting on the PPS wagon, which Robz started.
2 - Robz888: town. and I don't always think that.
3 - Eevee: weird defense of PPS early. #59 is bad. Then he thinks PPS is scummy, then he thinks he's town again.
4 - Captain_Frisk: eh, no read
5 - cayvie: obvtown.
6 - sparky5856: moderately scummy, for reasons presented earlier
7 - jotheonah: slight town.
8 - Insomniac: I am getting an Insomniac vibe off of Insomniac. Which means he reads scummy, but is probably actually town. Kinda funny that Galz and I have opposite problems reading Ins.
9 - Grujah: lurking.
10 - Cuzz: his analysis of the PPS wagon reads townie to me.
11 - pingpongsam: slight town
12 - O: slight scum. And I don't always think that, either.
13 - theorel: no read

[Eevee]

3 - Eevee: weird defense of PPS early. #59 is bad. Then he thinks PPS is scummy, then he thinks he's town again.

Why is my #59 bad? I stand by it. Clarification on my thoughts on PPS: I think he has played in a scummy way and it's certainly very easy to build a case against him. However, I do not think he is mafia. Attack mafia behavior, not scummy behavior guys!

[Eevee]

That is to say I don't approve of his methods, but I do not think it's more likely than average that he is mafia.

[cayvie]

jo already pointed out why it was bad

PPS, whether you were serious earlier or not, you should absolutely now make clear you are not clsming VT. I tried to do this for you, Robz and jonah sadly insisted on reading the claim literally.

Guys, I'd rather punish people who do this in a later game. Not really liking the idea of giving mafia a free pass on lynching a townie in this game. In fact, Vote jotheonah for trying to get the wagon rolling. I would vote both of you if I could.

"Scumbuddy, here's how you get out of this. I tried to save you but it didn't work. Now I'll see if I can chainsaw you instead"


.... is a perfectly valid reading of that post.

[Eevee]

Uhm yeah, but not a correct one given how I'm not scum. What do you want me to do, not try to help town with my reads and impressions in the fear of possibly looking like PPS's scum partner? Seriously that is a fine interpretation and I do expect to catch some heat if PPS dies and flips scum, but saying the post was outright BAD is really weird to me.

How can a townie posting his honest read on the situation be bad? Should I have lied? Not said what I thought? What?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-6

Robz888 (3): Insomniac, ashersky, O
pingpongsam (3): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee
O (2): jotheonah, Robz888

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[cayvie]

Uhm yeah, but not a correct one given how I'm not scum. What do you want me to do, not try to help town with my reads and impressions in the fear of possibly looking like PPS's scum partner? Seriously that is a fine interpretation and I do expect to catch some heat if PPS dies and flips scum, but saying the post was outright BAD is really weird to me.

How can a townie posting his honest read on the situation be bad? Should I have lied? Not said what I thought? What?

you weren't just saying what you thought! you were instructing him on how to behave!

[Eevee]

Uhm yeah, but not a correct one given how I'm not scum. What do you want me to do, not try to help town with my reads and impressions in the fear of possibly looking like PPS's scum partner? Seriously that is a fine interpretation and I do expect to catch some heat if PPS dies and flips scum, but saying the post was outright BAD is really weird to me.

How can a townie posting his honest read on the situation be bad? Should I have lied? Not said what I thought? What?

you weren't just saying what you thought! you were instructing him on how to behave!

Oh I understand now.

Yeah I was, and that's why I was defending him so much before he got here. I really really thought/hoped he had just made a mistake and that he was going to retract his VT-claim and say it was just a joke. His devious plan of knowingly claiming VT to create confusion and WIFOM scum or something (I don't even..) is definitely anti-town, so had he just followed the plan I laid out for him THIS TOWN would be better off now. That's why I did it, I thought I was coaching another townie who had made a mistake.

[jotheonah]

thanks for reminding me about that cayvie! definitely the scummiest thing I've seen this game. Who's up for Vote: Eevee?

[Insomniac]

I think Robz is pretty scummy especially with all his reaction lately to the added pressure from O playing the O game.

What is pretty scummy?

I just feel like in the last few posts you've been flailing around like your at L-1 in a way that scum Robz does.

I still think PPS is town. The fact that no one but O seems to agree with me makes me think me feel even better about this read.

Uhh what? I am one of the few still defending PPS

[Robz888]

I think Robz is pretty scummy especially with all his reaction lately to the added pressure from O playing the O game.

What is pretty scummy?

I just feel like in the last few posts you've been flailing around like your at L-1 in a way that scum Robz does.

Flail? Pshhaw. I never flail.

[Eevee]

Sorry Ins, then there are three of us.

Joth, I explained the post, in my mind sufficiently. What do you think of the explanation?

[jotheonah]

I think it's a pretty good cover, all things considered. It's a pity you cant unsay things, isn't it?

[Eevee]

I think it's a pretty good cover, all things considered. It's a pity you cant unsay things, isn't it?

I've said it twice and I'm going to say it again as no one ever seems to listen to me (maybe I'm too cute?): I do not regret making that post. I think it was a protown thing to do, even if it didnt do us any good here. I'll say this though, PPS's stupid gambit and hider theory talk at least gave us something to discuss here. Completely skipping the RVS was very pleasant.

[theorel]

soooo derptastic, this means A) any town that chooses a scum person will not be targeted because if they're hider they'll die
B) Scum kill someone and there's extra kills somewhere and we wonder if the person they hid behind is scum


I should lurk less, because you come up with ideas like this when I don't.

B) If someone flips hider, and the used there power, they can only die if 1: they target scum, 2: their target dies.  If the hider has clearly stated ahead of time who they'll hid behind, then we'll know which happened, and potentially find scum.

A) If the scum refuse to target townies who claimed to hide behind them, then they're reducing their kill-pool based on townie actions rather than choosing their ideal kill-choices, this is a town benefit.  Any possibility of them not targeting the hider vs. the possibility of the hider not targeting scum, I believe come out to a wash.

A couple comments on the popcorn hider thing, that I didn't get a chance to post.  I think town should feel free to target someone who's already targeted and feel free to change targets.  I'd suggest that we use a soft limit of 2 people per target.  Now, I hear you say, but only the real hider would actually change targets.  Actually it would seem beneficial to me that ANY power role would want scum to think they're the hider.  Because scum DON'T WANT to shoot the hider.  So, please fake-hiders keep in mind, that it may behoove you specifically to appear as much like the hider as possible, this in turn helps the real hider to not be found out, which makes scum more likely to target him, which means he's more likely to get use out of the protective half of his power.  This might be confusing, so I'll tl;dr it:
Suggestion: use a soft-limit of 2 "hiders" per target.

The more likely scum finds you to be hider, the less likely they are to shoot you...hence, consider changing targets especially if you're a PR.  (you can even breadcrumb your actual target, or secondary target or whatever if you're an investigative role, since it's likely that you're actually putting thought into it, it may make you look even more like the hider.  Or just breadcrumb whoever you feel like).

If I were hider, I'd hide behind joth right now.

Crap, I spent a whole nother post talking about the hider thing.  I'm going to stop that now.  cayvie's analysis is interesting in that it's opposite of mine in many ways.
Hmm...still no clear leaders from my perspective on scumminess.  That said, I'm going to Vote: Robz to create a clear leader in the vote-counts, and see how he responds to the increased pressure.  This is basically still about the pps issue...him voting for O I do not read as scummy, nor his avoidance of the hider debate...those both read null to me.

[jotheonah]

If I were a hider, I would hide behind O.

[Robz888]

That said, I'm going to Vote: Robz to create a clear leader in the vote-counts, and see how he responds to the increased pressure.  This is basically still about the pps issue...him voting for O I do not read as scummy, nor his avoidance of the hider debate...those both read null to me.

Watch me, I am going to respond exceedingly well.

I voted for PPS to illicit a response from him explaining his totally unacceptable behavior. He defended it less than adequately, and I feel it was a productive exchange between us. It informed and aided the town in a real way in contrast to your thesis on a role that might not even be in this game.

[Eevee]

That said, I'm going to Vote: Robz to create a clear leader in the vote-counts, and see how he responds to the increased pressure.  This is basically still about the pps issue...him voting for O I do not read as scummy, nor his avoidance of the hider debate...those both read null to me.

Watch me, I am going to respond exceedingly well.

I voted for PPS to illicit a response from him explaining his totally unacceptable behavior. He defended it less than adequately, and I feel it was a productive exchange between us. It informed and aided the town in a real way in contrast to your thesis on a role that might not even be in this game.

A+, laughed IRL.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-7

Robz888 (4): Insomniac, ashersky, O, theorel
pingpongsam (3): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee
O (1): Robz888
Eevee (1): jotheonah

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I'm switching back to Vote: PPS since my case on Eevee is contingent on PPS also being scum. In fact, PPS is not a bad lynch since if he's town I can go after O and if he's scum I can go after Eevee.

[pingpongsam]

Um, pretty sure I Unvoted and then Vote Robz but I don't mind doing it again.

[jotheonah]

Um, pretty sure I Unvoted and then Vote Robz but I don't mind doing it again.

use the colon, it makes it more likely you'll be counted.

This is a perfectly reasonable self-preserving switch from town or scum.

[Voltgloss]

Um, pretty sure I Unvoted and then Vote Robz but I don't mind doing it again.

You hadn't before, but you have now 

Vote Count 1-8

Robz888 (5): Insomniac, ashersky, O, theorel, pingpongsam
pingpongsam (4): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee
O (1): Robz888

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[Eevee]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I'm switching back to Vote: PPS since my case on Eevee is contingent on PPS also being scum. In fact, PPS is not a bad lynch since if he's town I can go after O and if he's scum I can go after Eevee.

So your entire case against me is dependent on PPS flipping scum -> if PPS flips town, you won't suspect me anymore? Don't see how voting me makes any sense in that case. (And that I can absolutely agree with, if PPS is scum my actions must look very scummy. Although maybe too blatantly obviously scummy to actually be mafia, but still.)

[Insomniac]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I was thinking it was next week but I could have misinterpreted.

[jotheonah]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I'm switching back to Vote: PPS since my case on Eevee is contingent on PPS also being scum. In fact, PPS is not a bad lynch since if he's town I can go after O and if he's scum I can go after Eevee.

So your entire case against me is dependent on PPS flipping scum -> if PPS flips town, you won't suspect me anymore? Don't see how voting me makes any sense in that case. (And that I can absolutely agree with, if PPS is scum my actions must look very scummy. Although maybe too blatantly obviously scummy to actually be mafia, but still.)

PPS flipping town won't clear you, but you and O defended PPS in very different ways. Yours looked an awful lot like coaching a partner, O's looked like distancing himself from a lynch he knew was town.

[Eevee]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I was thinking it was next week but I could have misinterpreted.

I was thinking next week too. I think my suggestion (next wednesday) is easily far enough, we already have two major wagons and what not! I don't understand how the Robz wagon got so huge (poor guy never gets to see day 2 it seems), can people who vote for him give their reasons for doing so? He went after PPS pretty hard, but I can totally see town-Robz being pissed at PPS and doing so (even if I disagree and don't find PPS scummy myself).

@joth
I was absolutely trying to coach my team mate. It is more likely (statistically and also because of my read) that PPS is town, so it is in my best interest to make him play as well as possible!

[Eevee]

Seeing Ozle post after a long break apparently made me go overboard with the exclamation marks.

[jotheonah]

Is tomorrow still our soft-deadline?

I was thinking it was next week but I could have misinterpreted.

I was thinking next week too. I think my suggestion (next wednesday) is easily far enough, we already have two major wagons and what not! I don't understand how the Robz wagon got so huge (poor guy never gets to see day 2 it seems), can people who vote for him give their reasons for doing so? He went after PPS pretty hard, but I can totally see town-Robz being pissed at PPS and doing so (even if I disagree and don't find PPS scummy myself).

@joth
I was absolutely trying to coach my team mate. It is more likely (statistically and also because of my read) that PPS is town, so it is in my best interest to make him play as well as possible!

Robz plays plenty of forum mafia. I have no qualms about lynching him Day 1 in a game or two if he gets himself in that position. In this case, I think he's town.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm still voting PPS - and have no plans to change.  I have a newly implemented policy of not allowing good players to make explicitly (and self admitted) anti town play.

Morgrim wants to claim VT day 1?  Ashersky wants to claim doctor a day too late?  Fine. 

PPS?  Not a chance.

[jotheonah]

I hesitate to ask this, but ... do you consider me a good enough player to lynch me for bad behavior?

[Captain_Frisk]

I hesitate to ask this, but ... do you consider me a good enough player to lynch me for bad behavior?

I don't view random voting as bad as an unforced claim, plus I knew you were town!

[Insomniac]

I'm still voting PPS - and have no plans to change.  I have a newly implemented policy of not allowing good players to make explicitly (and self admitted) anti town play.

Morgrim wants to claim VT day 1?  Ashersky wants to claim doctor a day too late?  Fine. 

PPS?  Not a chance.

Whats with the digs on Ash and Morgrim?

Also this,

I hesitate to ask this, but ... do you consider me a good enough player to lynch me for bad behavior?

I don't understand how the Robz wagon got so huge (poor guy never gets to see day 2 it seems), can people who vote for him give their reasons for doing so? He went after PPS pretty hard, but I can totally see town-Robz being pissed at PPS and doing so (even if I disagree and don't find PPS scummy myself).

Absolutely! He went after PPS super hard and well its a good place for scum Robz to be, if PPS flips town then Robz can defend it as a policy lynch day 2, "I wasn't scummy! I policy lynched the scummy guy".

Additionally I felt that before theorel voted for Robz that Robz was doing a bit of flailing around, he got called out on not contributing and a few other people added pressure to him and he seemed to squirm a bit in a way I'm not used to seeing town Robz under pressure. Scum Robz however I have seen do that.

[Eevee]

@Joth
The thing is, it's not like he has always flipped scum. If we always lynch him day 1 for the same behavior and he always flips town, the blame is at least partially on us? That being said, I have no opinion of his alignment here (and I find him very hard to read), that's why I asked his voters to present their case to me so I could evaluate.

@Frisk
PPS has only played in two games before this one? They were both masterfully played, sure, but do you remember how he was like in the beginning of mafia VI? Additionally, I don't believe in lynching guys I think are town as a punishment for bad play. And I do see PPS thinking his gambit was a good town move as a reasonable possibility. He seems like the kind of guy who could try something new and creative, even if it's not the good kind of new in this case.

[Eevee]

Thank you Insomniac, seems like an ok case. However, it's still mostly based on personal reads (not like we can really have hard facts yet on day 1), and since I don't have those reads, I'll keep my vote on sparky. If it somehow got to the deadline and I had to choose between PPS, Robz and a nolynch, I'd hammer Robz in a heartbeat though.

[Captain_Frisk]

Whats with the digs on Ash and Morgrim?

Morgrim has a history of anti town play as town.  Asher was an obvious new player making new player mistakes in MX.

PPS has demonstrated excellent play in M6 and 7.    He has no such excuse.

[Robz888]

Whats with the digs on Ash and Morgrim?

Morgrim has a history of anti town play as town.  Asher was an obvious new player making new player mistakes in MX.

PPS has demonstrated excellent play in M6 and 7.    He has no such excuse.

Agreed a million times over, except I've also grown weary of cutting Morgrim slack. Vote: Pingpongsam, especially if it's between him and me.

[Eevee]

Both Robz and PPS at L-2 now.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well - we all know that if you live until tomorrow - you must be scum, right?  Thats an easy way to test your alignment

[Robz888]

Well - we all know that if you live until tomorrow - you must be scum, right?  Thats an easy way to test your alignment

It is!

[Insomniac]

@Eevee on the sparky case is there a reason that his defending PPS is different than you, O, or I? I mean I see he makes an assumption in one statement but it could easily be over confident townie syndrome or feeling like he's already said he thinks PPS is town enough.

[Insomniac]

Additioanlly Eevee do you have any reasons above and beyond cayvie's case? I mean I pointed out he was suspicious to me a while ago and he still is so I'm interested to hear more from others on it.

[Eevee]

Like cayvie points out, angrybirds (very subtly but still) sounds like he knows PPS is going to flip town, which is a lot different from my "I think him being an experimental VT is more likely than him being a gambit-y scum" stance. I've only seen AB once before (in cayvie's major arcana, which was a huge game, so only vague recollections), there he seemed neutral to townish to me and here he looks neutral to scummy to me (this is ignoring all facts and evidence, just from gut feeling). Other than that, he has stayed in the sidelines, which is where scum is often found day 1 in my experience. If he and his scumpair are both avoiding all the suspicion (=if he is scum with anyone but Robz or PPS), he has no reason to actively try to advance either of our wagons, because both options are fine for his faction.

A lot of little things adding up. Generally taking positions I would expect scum to take day 1.

[jotheonah]

angrybirds is not in this game!

[Voltgloss]

Eevee suddenly began accusing some annoyed avians in a tree yonder, but nobody else in town had any idea who he was talking about.

PPE: sure jo, ninjaspoil my fun

[Captain_Frisk]

Interesting!

[Robz888]

Like cayvie points out, angrybirds (very subtly but still) sounds like he knows PPS is going to flip town, which is a lot different from my "I think him being an experimental VT is more likely than him being a gambit-y scum" stance. I've only seen AB once before (in cayvie's major arcana, which was a huge game, so only vague recollections), there he seemed neutral to townish to me and here he looks neutral to scummy to me (this is ignoring all facts and evidence, just from gut feeling). Other than that, he has stayed in the sidelines, which is where scum is often found day 1 in my experience. If he and his scumpair are both avoiding all the suspicion (=if he is scum with anyone but Robz or PPS), he has no reason to actively try to advance either of our wagons, because both options are fine for his faction.

A lot of little things adding up. Generally taking positions I would expect scum to take day 1.

This is... what? What is this? Does he mean sparky?

[Eevee]

Angrybirds and sparky have the same avatar or something? No idea why I confuse those two! I was thinking about major arcana but not really an excuse. :(

Sorry guys, repost with the correct name:

Like cayvie points out, sparky (very subtly but still) sounds like he knows PPS is going to flip town, which is a lot different from my "I think him being an experimental VT is more likely than him being a gambit-y scum" stance. I've only seen sparky once before (in cayvie's major arcana, which was a huge game, so only vague recollections), there he seemed neutral to townish to me and here he looks neutral to scummy to me (this is ignoring all facts and evidence, just from gut feeling). Other than that, he has stayed in the sidelines, which is where scum is often found day 1 in my experience. If he and his scumpair are both avoiding all the suspicion (=if he is scum with anyone but Robz or PPS), he has no reason to actively try to advance either of our wagons, because both options are fine for his faction.

A lot of little things adding up. Generally taking positions I would expect scum to take day 1.

Sorry twice to sparky.  :) Post is 100% what I meant to say though!

[theorel]

unvote

I actually think that was really interesting...unfortunately I need to be leaving.  In short, after voting Robz up to 4, pingpongsam went up to 4, then robz went to 5, then pingpongsam went to 5.  The voters were joth, pingpong, and robz.  Anyways, it's kind of like permission was given to go beyond 3 votes, and an attempt to make Robz the more prominently voted player was defeated, as they stayed at the same number of votes.  Like one-wagon can't be bigger than the other.  Unfortunately the voters involved were not different players, which drives a lot of uncertainty into the activity.  But it is interesting, regardless that they both went from 3 to 5 in the last few hours.

Also, no one has suggested a soft deadline of this Friday.  Grujah just suggested we should have one, I suggested something in the neighborhood of 10 days (which would actually be next Thursday morning), then said next Friday would be a good in that neighborhood.  Eevee suggested next Wednesday.

I think we should not lynch before next week unless the case is compelling, and I see no compelling cases at this time.

[pingpongsam]

Having played my 1st two games well and then totally shitting on a 3rd game doesn't make me some experienced maverick at this game. Equating me as such comes off somewhat scummy. I used to think I had a keen sense for scum but BMV taught me otherwise. For the record my name is associated with MIX but I didn't make any applicable plays; I just got substituted into a well developed pile of poop Frisk was already tired of wallowing in.

I'm on the Robz wagon because he's a decent pick for being scum and the people I perceive as town are on it. My 1st pick for scum is Jo and I've not seen any good reasons to think otherwise. In other words I'm sheeping my townmates because my own reputation is too blemished to push a wagon on my own merit.

[Robz888]

I am for lynching sooner rather than later. We would rather leave time for later in the game when our odds of lynching scum get better.

[ashersky]

I am for lynching sooner rather than later. We would rather leave time for later in the game when our odds of lynching scum get better.

I agree with this.  There is a limit to the amount of information we can glean from D1.  Now, I suppose if you have folks posting and posting with no end in sight, someone may be more likely to slip up, or we may all start seeing things that aren't there.

I don't want to lynch just to lynch in the next X minutes, but I don't know if using up the bankable time now instead of banking it up for when we can better use it (i.e., when the odds of catching scum are greater) is the best plan of action.

[sparky5856]

Like cayvie points out, sparky (very subtly but still) sounds like he knows PPS is going to flip town, which is a lot different from my "I think him being an experimental VT is more likely than him being a gambit-y scum" stance.

I didn't say PPS was definitely going to flip town; I've been back-and-forth between kinda-town and neutral for him, and I feel like I've repeatedly stated it several times and no one seems to be listening, reading instead "he's knows for CERTAIN PPS is going to flip town!"

Other than that, he has stayed in the sidelines, which is where scum is often found day 1 in my experience. If he and his scumpair are both avoiding all the suspicion (=if he is scum with anyone but Robz or PPS), he has no reason to actively try to advance either of our wagons, because both options are fine for his faction.

This is exactly what I've been cautious about, I've stated this several times as well, but now it's being used against me. And I've been one of the more active ones imo, what about those who voted for either wagon and haven't stated much of anything since? Isn't THAT more scummy? They're trying to accelerate a lynch while staying on the sidelines praying it'll happen faster?

Well, I don't have a vote. I want to keep the wagons going; gives us something to discuss. Plus it'll be more interesting to see who L-1's and (possibly) hammers. VOTE: Robz.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-9

Robz888 (5): Insomniac, ashersky, O, pingpongsam, sparky5856
pingpongsam (5): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

[O]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

similar situation, but your behavior is quite different.

[Robz888]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

similar situation, but your behavior is quite different.

So you don't think I'm scum this time, then?

[O]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

similar situation, but your behavior is quite different.

So you don't think I'm scum this time, then?

Well you were town last time, and your behavior is quite different.

[Robz888]

I just can't win with you then.

[O]

I just can't win with you then.

Well let's see our behavior:

You're scum and I'm town: ?
You're town and I'm town: I try to lynch you (not MI tho)
I'm scum and your town: Depends (MIV, MV)
You're scum and I'm scum: We try to lynch eachother

I really need to make sure that case 1 is me trying to lynch you.

[cayvie]

Hey, people on the robzwagon, what percentage would you say Robz has of flipping scum?

[cayvie]

*what percentage chance.

[ashersky]

Hey, people on the robzwagon, what percentage would you say Robz has of flipping scum?

I'd put it at 33.3%.

[Cuzz]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

similar situation, but your behavior is quite different.

So you don't think I'm scum this time, then?

Well you were town last time, and your behavior is quite different.

I noticed the similarities, which is partly why I'm not crazy about a Robz lynch at the moment. Also, if he's acting differently, maybe it's not because his alignment is different, but because his behavior last time got him lynched D1.

[pingpongsam]

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

[jotheonah]

So you're not actually voting for your top scum read? I guess that's just because you've decided to be willfully anti-town this game.

[Captain_Frisk]

So you're not actually voting for your top scum read? I guess that's just because you've decided to be willfully anti-town this game.

Come on joth - Voting for your #2 if it's a viable lynch and the other is not is reasonable.

[jotheonah]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

[O]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

[cayvie]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

yes, but what percent sure are you?

[Captain_Frisk]

What is up with the percentages?

[O]

You're right. But nothing PPS does makes him look any more townish to me. Maybe I'm just tunneling. God knows if I'm wrong I'm not going to have a fun day 2.

you're wrong
you're town
Robz is wrong
he's scum.

Come join mai wagon!!

yes, but what percent sure are you?

I'm 0% sure that Robz is scum. I think there is a ~50% probability Robz is scum.

[cayvie]

What is up with the percentages?

I'm trying something!

thanks, O.

[Insomniac]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

[cayvie]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

cool, thanks. just waiting on sparky now and then i'll release my findings from this experiment!

[theorel]

I am for lynching sooner rather than later. We would rather leave time for later in the game when our odds of lynching scum get better.

I agree with this.  There is a limit to the amount of information we can glean from D1.  Now, I suppose if you have folks posting and posting with no end in sight, someone may be more likely to slip up, or we may all start seeing things that aren't there.

I don't want to lynch just to lynch in the next X minutes, but I don't know if using up the bankable time now instead of banking it up for when we can better use it (i.e., when the odds of catching scum are greater) is the best plan of action.

And I (hopefully unsurprisingly) disagree with this sentiment.  I think that day1 can reach a point where it stagnates and useful information stops flowing, and can only start flowing in earnest after a lynch.  However, I think we have just reached the stage of day1 where information actually starts to flow.  Hopefully it will start to be useful after the lynch.

[theorel]

Hey, let's have a post count...just for fun.  Pregame was pretty short here, so I probably don't need to adjust for pre-game posts.  But I am pedantic, so, what can you do.
Preplay posts:
1 - ashersky: 3
2 - Robz888: 5
3 - Eevee: 3
4 - Captain_Frisk: 2
5 - cayvie: 3
6 - sparky5856: 2
7 - jotheonah: 2
8 - Insomniac: 2
9 - Grujah: 0
10 - Cuzz: 2
11 - pingpongsam: 2
12 - O: 2
13 - theorel: 2

Current posts:
1 - ashersky: 13
2 - Robz888: 47
3 - Eevee: 44
4 - Captain_Frisk: 17
5 - cayvie: 28
6 - sparky5856: 13
7 - jotheonah: 34
8 - Insomniac: 27
9 - Grujah: 6
10 - Cuzz: 10
11 - pingpongsam: 22
12 - O: 21
13 - theorel: 24

So, actual posts:
Ash: 10
Robz: 42
Eevee: 41
Cap: 15
cayvie: 25
sparky: 11
joth: 32
Insomniac: 25
Grujah: 6
Cuzz: 8
pps: 20
O: 19
Theo: 22

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?
Grujah has been busy, so his 6 posts makes sense...
Anyways, I was just checking on it as I'm working through what I think of everyone's current activity (rejudged after everyone decided to start focusing on 2 people).  I'm going to Vote: Cuzz right now...because I find his overall behavior scummy (i.e. sitting on pps with 8 total posts).  He's the one who pushed the wagon to 4 before things slowed down...Robz, and joth both switched off after a bit of sitting at 4, to switch on again only when a second wagon reached that point...
Robz and joth's statements have not seemed particularly townie regarding the pingpongsam wagon, but their behavior has seemed town.  Cuzz' statements have seemed townie regarding pingpongsam, but his behavior has seemed scummy.  This strikes me as reasonable scum-play, but then I've never seen Cuzz play (unless he was in BMV, but that doesn't really count).  If this is pretty standard Cuzz-play then I'm just off in left field, and I would appreciate being informed.

[Cuzz]

Hey, let's have a post count...just for fun.  Pregame was pretty short here, so I probably don't need to adjust for pre-game posts.  But I am pedantic, so, what can you do.
Preplay posts:
1 - ashersky: 3
2 - Robz888: 5
3 - Eevee: 3
4 - Captain_Frisk: 2
5 - cayvie: 3
6 - sparky5856: 2
7 - jotheonah: 2
8 - Insomniac: 2
9 - Grujah: 0
10 - Cuzz: 2
11 - pingpongsam: 2
12 - O: 2
13 - theorel: 2

Current posts:
1 - ashersky: 13
2 - Robz888: 47
3 - Eevee: 44
4 - Captain_Frisk: 17
5 - cayvie: 28
6 - sparky5856: 13
7 - jotheonah: 34
8 - Insomniac: 27
9 - Grujah: 6
10 - Cuzz: 10
11 - pingpongsam: 22
12 - O: 21
13 - theorel: 24

So, actual posts:
Ash: 10
Robz: 42
Eevee: 41
Cap: 15
cayvie: 25
sparky: 11
joth: 32
Insomniac: 25
Grujah: 6
Cuzz: 8
pps: 20
O: 19
Theo: 22

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?
Grujah has been busy, so his 6 posts makes sense...
Anyways, I was just checking on it as I'm working through what I think of everyone's current activity (rejudged after everyone decided to start focusing on 2 people).  I'm going to Vote: Cuzz right now...because I find his overall behavior scummy (i.e. sitting on pps with 8 total posts).  He's the one who pushed the wagon to 4 before things slowed down...Robz, and joth both switched off after a bit of sitting at 4, to switch on again only when a second wagon reached that point...
Robz and joth's statements have not seemed particularly townie regarding the pingpongsam wagon, but their behavior has seemed town.  Cuzz' statements have seemed townie regarding pingpongsam, but his behavior has seemed scummy.  This strikes me as reasonable scum-play, but then I've never seen Cuzz play (unless he was in BMV, but that doesn't really count).  If this is pretty standard Cuzz-play then I'm just off in left field, and I would appreciate being informed.

Dude, we did play together in BMV. And ashersky was there too by the way. But if you didn't notice me there, then maybe I just tend to fly under the radar in general? (though I was scum in BMV, so don't read too much into that) This and MXI are only my third and fourth games, but I did get called out for being lurkish a bit in MX. I try not to disappear for long stretches or anything, but I also don't really post much unless I feel I have something to say. Plus I was V/LA for the first rl day of this game for whatever that's worth.

How have you felt about the content of my posts. You say they seem townish for the most part, right?

[Cuzz]

I should have added above that I was town in MX.

[sparky5856]

@cayvie I'm not sure Robz is scum at all but I'd say I'm 40% ish  on him being scum, and while it's not a lot it is more than I have assigned to anyone else.

cool, thanks. just waiting on sparky now and then i'll release my findings from this experiment!

Sorry, been away at work. Serving hungry customers is time consuming >_<

As for your query, I say a little bit less than 50% is a reasonable estimate. What's your plan cayvie?

A few of these players I haven't played with: Cuzz, Ashersky, Sparky.  From those who have, does this seem about right for them?

Yes it's normal for me. I don't post a lot (and this is the case for the forum in its entirety, about 1 post every 4 days), but when I do, it tends to be a lot of content. I also have real-life distracting me a lot >_<

[pingpongsam]

So you're not actually voting for your top scum read? I guess that's just because you've decided to be willfully anti-town this game.

I've spelled out my reasons for this already but it's good of you to take the opportunity now instead of then to smear it.

[pingpongsam]

I'm on the Robz wagon because he's a decent pick for being scum and the people I perceive as town are on it. My 1st pick for scum is Jo and I've not seen any good reasons to think otherwise. In other words I'm sheeping my townmates because my own reputation is too blemished to push a wagon on my own merit.

quoted reference so you don't complain.

[cayvie]

As for your query, I say a little bit less than 50% is a reasonable estimate. What's your plan cayvie?

Thanks!

Here's one part of my plan: asking you to reconcile this "a bit less than 50%" vote on Robz with this post:

No matter who you are, why would you intentionally play anti-town? Unless he wants to die? The only role that has an ability upon death is vengeful townie, but I don't see much of a purpose to immediately get killed. I'm gonna start my analysis now.

I see this early claim as being more valuable the longer it stays in the game. Statistically, chances of a D1 mislynch are strong; mislynch me D1 and all you learned was that I was truthful, mislynch me D3 and my reads are suddenly very informative.

Isn't that the case with anyone though? I guess the key word here is "suddenly". But wasting the whole game intentionally steering the town in the wrong direction?

So, am I scum playing to my own demise? What scum hates most is losing control of the game. While this early claim has verifiably controlled the flow of the game to date it seems heavy handed for worthy scum play to me.

So that's why he claimed; he thinks it's clumsy scum play to claim VT this early. But it's currently attracting a lot of suspicion. If he is town, then it's quite a bold move. If he is scum, then he DOES consider it worthy scum-play, since, well, he did it. His arguments could go either way, which doesn't help in the purposes of defending himself, which is what we were asking to begin with.

Scum knows I am Town.  They do not know if I am VT or PR regardless of my claim.

This is actually a valid observation, in general. If he is scum then he's speaking really ambiguously. It's completely true if he's town though.

It's just a fact. The statement of fact was in response to Eevee's false assertion that Mafia knows not to kill me at night due to my claim. They don't know anything other than the fact that I am not them and therefore either Town or SK.

But you realize that your actions have made it advantageous for the mafia to kill someone other than you, right? This is the paradox; if you are telling the truth, then you have thrust the likelihood the night kill on to someone more likely to be a town PR. If you are lying, then you are either a PR townie who very shrewdly guaranteed his safety tonight--at the cost of the town trusting him--or you are a scum.

I do realize this and I see it as a predicament for scum which is precisely the intent. The WIFOM is on Scum in this case.

Scum want to leave in suspicious players. Which happens to be you.

It means something because it was said and also when it was said. Had I not said it then it is simply implied as it is for every man in the game. That it is the center of discussion means it holds value, as to which alignment can make that value theirs is up to everyone else in the game. My assertion, which can only be proven or disproven as the game progresses is that this tilts the field so that Scum does not hold the D1 advantage that they typically do.

Not following you here. I especially don't understand the "implied VT". Most start out with a PR, and while they may not get to use their powers immediately, they still want to defend their powers. And the last bit (scum not holding the D1 advantage) needs some clarifying. He only mentions it briefly.

UGHHHH I'm done. Defenses do not make sense >_< He could flip either way, but the fact that he specifically called his stunt anti-town is questionable. I did say before that he's more likely to turn up town, now it's about even. My previous assertion before was me being over-cautious for a mislynch. But as I also said before, maybe it's beneficial to have an early Day 1 lynch. What jo said:

I know lots of people will say I'm scummy for trying to rush us into a Day 1 lynch. But I think it's anti-town to wait for the sake of waiting, especially with bankable deadlines, and I, for one, don't have much else to say. Thoughts?

(If jo himself is scum I just made myself look bad there. >_> He's attracting too much attention with his audacity.)

Bottom line: PPS is a living breathing WIFOM. He can go either way almost 50-50 imo, and analyzing just leads to time-delays in the case of him, because nothing good is coming out of it. Vote time?

I'll Vote: Robz.

I think I learned my lesson ignoring/believing silent/lurky Robz.  But really, no content to speak of, hiding from the hider chatter, on the pps wagon (an easy place for scum to sit if they want)...

Let's see some Robz!

Indeed, Robz has turned lurky again. He's accruing scum points by the hour lol.

In particular, the part I resized. Why do you not vote for PPS here, if you're about 50/50 on him being scum, but instead push for Robz, someone else you're 50/50 on?

[cayvie]

By the way: I'm not asking "why aren't you voting for PPS now", because you've posted since then that your read has vacillated.

I want to know why you didn't vote for him then, instead pushing your attention toward his attackers.

[sparky5856]

By the way: I'm not asking "why aren't you voting for PPS now", because you've posted since then that your read has vacillated.

I want to know why you didn't vote for him then, instead pushing your attention toward his attackers.

Good observation, and I have explanations. The vote total then was:

Vote Count 1-5

Robz888 (2): Insomniac, ashersky
pingpongsam (4): Robz888, Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (3): Eevee, pingpongsam, O
sparky5856 (1): cayvie
O (1): jotheonah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

A vote from me would have put PPS at L-2 with everyone else behind. With no other wagons as strong as PPS at the time, putting him at L-2 would have been risky imo. Only one wagon with a 50% success of scum isn't high enough for me. But later, a sizable wagon develops on Robz. Both end up at L-2, which I observed (to myself) as fascinating. I was curious to see if any additional votes would accrue on either.

theorel unvoted from Robz. So, I put a vote back. And hey, if they're both at 50-50 to me, might as well keep them even right? I can switch to one or the other at this point (since they ARE even after all). My vote on Robz is to keep the L-2 wagons going. I like action 

Basically whoever I vote on depends on the situation as well as my confidence, not just my confidence. Sorry if it's not the best explanation, but I needed to do something with my vote, whether for strategic purposes or just trying to lynch possible scum.

Should we ask everyone who's voting for PPS what their confidence percentage levels are about their votes? I think comparing them to the percentages on Robz is a great idea. And I like that there's more parts to your plan, I like plans. 

[cayvie]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

[cayvie]

Part 2 of the plan, book 2:

Hey, people on the robzwagon, what percentage would you say Robz has of flipping scum?

I'd put it at 33.3%.

While that's a reasonable number to vote someone on, I'm curious if Robz is your highest scumread, as that's barely above average, assuming 3 scum.

[Robz888]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

If you were 70% sure someone was scum, you should not be voting for some other second-strongest scum read. You should be arguing to the town to accept your case on that 70% confidence person.

[cayvie]

Yeah, okay.

I had a townread on you earlier, PPS, but not anymore.

vote: Pingpongsam

I believe that's L-1.

[jotheonah]

Part 2 of the plan: see if anyone says anything off-the-wall, like this:

I'd put Robz at 55%; just a tad over 50/50 on him. I'd put Jotheonah at something more like 70%.

Holy crap, a 70% certainty that someone's scum? Day 1?

A statement like that, to me, almost certainly means one of these things:

1) PPS doesn't get probability
2) PPS overvalues his own reads (aka is tunneling hardcore)
3) PPS is scum, and is tossing around random numbers.

If you were 70% sure someone was scum, you should not be voting for some other second-strongest scum read. You should be arguing to the town to accept your case on that 70% confidence person.

that's what I was trying to say before.

My confidence that PPS is scum is about 65%.

[O]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

[O]

flips town* yawn not scumslip

[cayvie]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

no im not

[O]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

no im not

yes, you are. You're very clearly the next lynch if both those prefilled conditions are shown true.

[Eevee]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

no im not

yes, you are. You're very clearly the next lynch if both those prefilled conditions are shown true.

If you want to make statements like this, you really should walk us through the logic too.

[cayvie]

I will chainsaw defense (except protip i'm town) and tunnel anyone on this wagon when PPS flips scum. Cayvie is now almost guaranteed scum if robz is scum and PPS isn't (kind of like my D2 actions in MVIII would have made me guaranteed scum if I didn't bus robz so hard the next day).

no im not

yes, you are. You're very clearly the next lynch if both those prefilled conditions are shown true.

chessmaster O

seeing 3 lynches ahead

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-10

Robz888 (5): Insomniac, ashersky, O, pingpongsam, sparky5856
pingpongsam (6): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888, cayvie
sparky5856 (1): Eevee
Cuzz (1): theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

[O]

vote:pingpongsam

actually I smell bussing.

[Eevee]

vote:pingpongsam

actually I smell bussing.

What happened to your town read on him? Or was it just the scumminess of his wagon you now dont see anymore?

[Eevee]

Oh wait thats the hammer!!

Oh O WHAT U DOING BUDDY?

[O]

i donno. It was the scumminess of the wagon that persistantly refused to back down, reminiscent of MVIII, that made me hammer.

[Eevee]

i donno. It was the scumminess of the wagon that persistantly refused to back down, reminiscent of MVIII, that made me hammer.

You definitely should know before hammering, dont you think?
You don't think asking others if they still want to say something today would have been, like, cool? Like, we were discussing a soft deadline that would have been a week from now or so.. And some people actually explicitly said it's too early to end the day in their opinion. I don't know if that was a mafia-y thing to do but it surely was scummy as hell, mang.

[Voltgloss]

THREAD LOCKED

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-11

Robz888 (4): Insomniac, ashersky, pingpongsam, sparky5856
pingpongsam (7): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888, cayvie, O
sparky5856 (1): Eevee
Cuzz (1): theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

All that incessant bellringing had finally pushed the town over the edge.  Grujah led the howling mob that charged up the belltower stairs.  At the top, Captain_Frisk and Cuzz grabbed his arms while jotheonah tied a rope to the bell and Robz888 looped it around pingpongsam's neck.

And yet pingpongsam just laughed and laughed.  O scowled.  cayvie walked closer and spoke.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'.
Y'see, O here doesn't like people laughin'.
Gets the crazy idea you're laughin' at him. 
Now, if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him you really didn't mean it."

But pingpongsam just laughed and laughed.

He laughed all the way down from the belltower window.

When his body jerked after the neck snapped, a piece of paper fell out of his pocket to the ground.  The rest of the town rushed over to open it.  It was neatly written in pingpongsam's hand.

"I meant what I said and I said what I meant.
I was a Border Villager one hundred percent."

pingpongsam, the Town Border Villager {Vanilla}, has been lynched.

Night 1 has begun.  Night actions are due within 48 hours, i.e., by 5:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday, September 23.  If all actions are received prior to the deadline, Day 2 may start early.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Mood music:  #t=0m52s

"GET TWO COFFINS READY"

That's what the note pinned to the gallows read.  The remaining townsfolk surveyed it, and the two corpses propped up against the hangin' post, with grim silence.

One had a bullet in the heart.  A single, well-placed shot had ended the life of cayvie, Town Border Villager {Vanilla}.

The other had a bullet in the head.  Coins scattered about showed the killer's contempt for the dead man's way of life.  At least he died with his boots on, and with his rifle still clenched in his hand.  He was ashersky, Town Noble Brigand {Vigilante}.

Someone bent down to look closer at ashersky's rifle.  A string was tied to it.  "What's this?"  They pulled...

BOOM

A good-sized section of ground blew up fifty feet down the street.

When the dust settled and the town investigated, they found the remains of a well-dug tunnel, one of a series under the town.  And inside, the corpse of their maker:  Eevee, Town Tunneler {Hider}.  Pinned to his chest was another note:

"MY MISTAKE.  THREE COFFINS."

Day 2 Start!!

Not voting: Robz888, Captain_Frisk, sparky5856, jotheonah, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz, O, theorel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

Oh good Lord.

[Robz888]

Jesus Christ.

[Grujah]

Are we to make something out of the flavor?

Did Eevee said anything about whom he would potentially hide behind?

[Grujah]

Also, I don't think this confirms SK, but makes it far more likely.

[Voltgloss]

The following mechanics rules apply:

- Kill flavor is NOT a clue to the identity of the killer.  Any nightkill may be presented with any flavor, regardless of its source.

[Robz888]

Well, Eevee dying explains itself if he hid behind one of these people.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 1-6

Robz888 (3): Insomniac, ashersky, O
pingpongsam (3): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee
O (2): jotheonah, Robz888

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

Two of the people who died were seriously voting for Sparky last night.

[Robz888]

*edit, yesterday

[Cuzz]

Looks like Eevee hid behind ashersky.

I really liked this case. Vote: sparky

I still think PPS is town. The fact that no one but O seems to agree with me makes me think me feel even better about this read. Very early wagon on day 1, an excellent player, everyone is after him.. have you seen this before? Has it ever ended well (before anyone brings up blitz2, this is analogous to joth wagon in that game).

I would hide behind PPS, if you fools lynch him lets say ashersky.

[Cuzz]

Two of the people who died were seriously voting for Sparky last night.

I don't think this means too much. Eevee only died because someone tried to kill ashersky (in all likelihood), and the ashersky/cayvie kills couldn't have come from the same faction.

Speaking of which...

Also, I don't think this confirms SK, but makes it far more likely.

Ashersky was a Vig, so it's possible he offed her last night. But cayvie seemed pretty town to me so idk why she would have been the NK choice for a Vig.

[Robz888]

Pretty cruel to kill Cayvie, who also died night 1 in MVIII.

[Robz888]

I think the scum got really lucky for this to turn out the way it did.

[Insomniac]

I think the scum got really lucky for this to turn out the way it did.

I would have to agree, 3 people down and 2 power roles on night 1. A total of 4 townies dead on day 2. I tend to agree with Cuzz that there is probably no serial killer because Eevee would definetly have used his power (no reason not to) and we know that the town had a vig so I could definetly see ash shooting. I'm just a little confused because that means that ash had to be the one who killed cayvie right. Because what happens if a Vig targets someone who hides behind them?

[Cuzz]

Targeting a hider in any regard is ineffective.

[Grujah]

Pretty cruel to kill Cayvie, who also died night 1 in MVIII.

In MVI too, I think. He kinda bits the bullet N1 often, kinda like Ins.

Ashersky was a Vig, so it's possible he offed her last night. But cayvie seemed pretty town to me so idk why she would have been the NK choice for a Vig.

Yeah, that was my point. The additional kill could have came from Vig or SK. People say that people shoot if they got the chance, but I know this ain't always the truth (though this is mostly based on X-shot VIg experience on f.ds, we rarely had fullvigs, bar Morgrim). Ask could have shot first day just to say "hey, vig is there too" i.e. if we get 3 non-hider deaths, we know there is SK. Dunno how smart that would have been.


@Robz - What Cuzz said, Eevee is collateral damage, cayvie on other hand ain't. Unless Eevee spilt out that he is hider somewhere, like he did with Doc in a recent game (ZM?).


@Cuzz - How do you place the kills, exactly?

[Cuzz]

I think occam's razor would say mafia killed ashersky, eevee died from hiding behind him, and ashersky killed cayvie. Other possibility is that ashersky held off lat night and SK killed cayvie.

[theorel]

I agree with the above...simplest explanation is that vig(i.e. ashersky) shot cayvie, and scum shot ashersky.  Why those things happened, I'm not entirely sure.  I have one possible suggestion for ashersky's death, which is tied into the following.

i donno. It was the scumminess of the wagon that persistantly refused to back down, reminiscent of MVIII, that made me hammer.

Vote: O
That was seriously the scummiest quick-hammer I've ever seen, and this was his reason for it, when asked by Eevee.  His scum_score is around 65 for me...no one else is close.  I think we should have conversations, but I will be legitimately surprised if my vote goes somewhere else today.

What this has to do with the NKs:
Now, I'm not exactly sure how many people claimed hider targets, but:
1. O ended the day without warning, while some people who might have desired to claim a target had not yet done so.  (Question: how many potential hider-targets did we actually have last night?)
2. Other than myself, Eevee possibly offered the strongest arguments for using the hider plan (at least in the argument with cayvie).
3. Any of those that offered targets, or those targeted could have been scum.  Hence O ending the day early, could have yielded a result where the scum had a good chance of taking down the hider had they already claimed.

So, my theory at the moment (until I see reason to believe otherwise) is that one of the purposes of O ending the day quickly was a hope of catching the hider out, because he believed that scum could get a double-kill if the hider existed/had claimed a target.  Of course, there's also the added bit that town might have reconsidered their lynch target (which makes me suspicious of Cuzz, but unless O is scum, I have no reason to suspect Cuzz, and even if he is scum, Cuzz might be innocently implicated there).

As to cayvie: cayvie was second-to-last vote on pingpongsam...I think it's a somewhat reasonable possibility that ashersky killed her for that reason, lacking any stronger scum-reads.  For speculations on SK, I think it's best to wait and see what happens tonight.

[Robz888]

As to cayvie: cayvie was second-to-last vote on pingpongsam...I think it's a somewhat reasonable possibility that ashersky killed her for that reason, lacking any stronger scum-reads.  For speculations on SK, I think it's best to wait and see what happens tonight.

I was going to mention this as a possible explanation. Bad luck for Cayvie.

Yeah, what O did was awful, and there's a good case to be made for it being scummy. I'll look forward to his response to Theorel's case.

[jotheonah]

Vote: O

In addition to theorel's case, I had him as likely scum Day 1 if pps flipped town based on his behavior toward the wagon. It ain't like scum O to quickhammer like that, but it's even less like town O, IMO.

[Robz888]

Vote: O

He may not get in here and defend himself until there's real pressure.

[jotheonah]

Robz, that's L-2. We're setting up a scum quickhammer scenario, midday on a Sunday. That just seems wrong. Overcautious unvote.

[Robz888]

Robz, that's L-2. We're setting up a scum quickhammer scenario, midday on a Sunday. That just seems wrong. Overcautious unvote.

Ugh, Jo! That's half the point. It would actually make O scared, and if scum were stupid enough to do that we could get them for sure. I demand you revote.

[Robz888]

I'm super bummed you did that. 

[jotheonah]

I'll happily revote if we haven't heard from O by tomorrow. But doing it on the weekend? When people aren't around?

[Robz888]

I'll happily revote if we haven't heard from O by tomorrow. But doing it on the weekend? When people aren't around?

Right, but I'm saying if two more people actually stroll in here before then and quicklynch O, we'll have found our scum.

[jotheonah]

Fine, Robz. I don't trust you at all, mind you, but you make a good point.

Vote: O

Gonna go on record and say if O flips town I'm going after you, Robz.

[Cuzz]

I'm not ready to put anyone at L-1 yet, but I will agree that that was some straight up craziness. I'm eager to see his defense.

Of course, there's also the added bit that town might have reconsidered their lynch target (which makes me suspicious of Cuzz, but unless O is scum, I have no reason to suspect Cuzz, and even if he is scum, Cuzz might be innocently implicated there).

theorel, can you explain this a little more? Not trying to be defensive, I just actually don't really understand why you'd suspect me. I felt ok with pps at L-2, and he was at L-2 when I went to bed that evening. When I woke up it was N1, so I didn't have time to unvote after cayvie's vote (not that I necessarily would have, but that's moot).

[Robz888]

So I would tentatively say we don't have a Serial Killer, just a very lucky mafia. Of course, a Serial Killer's kill could have been blocked or jailkept. Otherwise Eevee hid behind ashersky, ashersky shot cayvie, scum killed ashersky. Which is a plausible series of disasters.

[Robz888]

Here's some analysis of the ashersky kill, which is the only kill that I expect to have been committed by mafia.

I looked back through ashersky's posts to see why the mafia might have targeted him. It's a seemingly random selection. As a newish person, he's not someone with a well established meta. He was neither super innocent seeming nor a particularly feared townie.

Well, his posts are a little thin, and also stridently anti-me. He actually RVS votes me, and then votes me for real. He has about a dozen posts, and that's it. So, him dying doesn't make me look any better.

Of note is that he is not on the PPS wagon, a townie wagon. Of course it's mafia 101 to kill the people not on the wagon (if the wagon was against town and scum were on the wagon). That's because they want to leave alive plenty of other suspicious town killers on that wagon, to better mask themselves. So I think ashersky might have been simply chosen because he wasn't voting PPS.

Of course there were plenty of other people not voting PPS: Eevee, Insomniac, theorel, sparky. Why not kill one of them instead? The first three are veterans with great records as smart town players. So it's possible that one of those people is also mafia, so of course did not select himself. And furthermore, Eevee is now dead.

So if we think the mafia were both on and off the wagon--which is probably likely--we are looking at a mafia among theorel, Insomniac, and sparky.

On the wagon, we've got some number of mafia among Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888, and O.

[Cuzz]

There's also the possibility that theorel hinted at. After the hider discussion, mafia could have decided to aim for the person the hider would hide behind, and get a two-for-one kill. They then somehow picked up that Eevee was most likely to be hider, and killed his claimed hider-target ashersky.

[Robz888]

There's also the possibility that theorel hinted at. After the hider discussion, mafia could have decided to aim for the person the hider would hide behind, and get a two-for-one kill. They then somehow picked up that Eevee was most likely to be hider, and killed his claimed hider-target ashersky.

Oh, so you think it was clear that Eevee was hider, so that's the explanation?

[Cuzz]

There's also the possibility that theorel hinted at. After the hider discussion, mafia could have decided to aim for the person the hider would hide behind, and get a two-for-one kill. They then somehow picked up that Eevee was most likely to be hider, and killed his claimed hider-target ashersky.

Oh, so you think it was clear that Eevee was hider, so that's the explanation?

It certainly wasn't clear to me, but I can conceive that maybe someone made such a read.

It didn't even have to be "clear" per se. I really just meant that aiming for the hider's target could have been the plan (so as to hit 2 townies). They still would have had to guess who the hider was, and they then guessed correctly.

This is just an alternative to your theory that they were looking to hit ashersky specifically.

[Robz888]

You're so good at knowing what the scum were thinking, Cuzz.

[O]

Hey guys.

I don't look scummy. Nothing about my hammer is remotely scummy at all, but scum are pushing that image. "herp derp he hammered town after waffling his POV that totally makes him scummy" yea because that scum play makes sense, even from someone with a meta for scumplay that doesn't make sense.

I do find the wagon scummy, and my scumrobz read is still strong.

just moved into college dorm yesterday (freshman) so sketchy on-time this week, not lurking.

[O]

Here's some analysis of the ashersky kill, which is the only kill that I expect to have been committed by mafia.

I looked back through ashersky's posts to see why the mafia might have targeted him. It's a seemingly random selection. As a newish person, he's not someone with a well established meta. He was neither super innocent seeming nor a particularly feared townie.

Well, his posts are a little thin, and also stridently anti-me. He actually RVS votes me, and then votes me for real. He has about a dozen posts, and that's it. So, him dying doesn't make me look any better.

Of note is that he is not on the PPS wagon, a townie wagon. Of course it's mafia 101 to kill the people not on the wagon (if the wagon was against town and scum were on the wagon). That's because they want to leave alive plenty of other suspicious town killers on that wagon, to better mask themselves. So I think ashersky might have been simply chosen because he wasn't voting PPS.

Of course there were plenty of other people not voting PPS: Eevee, Insomniac, theorel, sparky. Why not kill one of them instead? The first three are veterans with great records as smart town players. So it's possible that one of those people is also mafia, so of course did not select himself. And furthermore, Eevee is now dead.

So if we think the mafia were both on and off the wagon--which is probably likely--we are looking at a mafia among theorel, Insomniac, and sparky.

On the wagon, we've got some number of mafia among Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888, and O.

---> Addresses Ashersky's suspicion on him in an attempt to head off any pressure from that direction. Exactly what we both did as scum.
---> Speaking about "mafia 101" when MVIII as scum we both purposefully broke mafia 101 and then referenced basic scumplay as to why were weren't scum
---> Stating the obvious "lets scumhunt the town-lynchwagon" to try to admit his suspiciousness but not his guilt.
---> "great records as smart town players" you reference that to pretty much every non-morgrim player to buddy up to them


Vote: Robz why are you always scum

[Cuzz]

You're so good at knowing what the scum were thinking, Cuzz.

Dude, theorel came up with this first (below), as I said. I wouldn't have caught it on my own (and I certainly didn't pick up on Eevee being the hider; I thought maybe it was theorel for broaching the subject in the first place).

I was just adding his theory to your list of possible explanations. But after seeing that the hider was killed, and after the long discussion of hider targets yesterday, I don't think you have to be psychic (or scum) to think it might have been intentional.

I agree with the above...simplest explanation is that vig(i.e. ashersky) shot cayvie, and scum shot ashersky.  Why those things happened, I'm not entirely sure.  I have one possible suggestion for ashersky's death, which is tied into the following.

i donno. It was the scumminess of the wagon that persistantly refused to back down, reminiscent of MVIII, that made me hammer.

Vote: O
That was seriously the scummiest quick-hammer I've ever seen, and this was his reason for it, when asked by Eevee.  His scum_score is around 65 for me...no one else is close.  I think we should have conversations, but I will be legitimately surprised if my vote goes somewhere else today.

What this has to do with the NKs:
Now, I'm not exactly sure how many people claimed hider targets, but:
1. O ended the day without warning, while some people who might have desired to claim a target had not yet done so.  (Question: how many potential hider-targets did we actually have last night?)
2. Other than myself, Eevee possibly offered the strongest arguments for using the hider plan (at least in the argument with cayvie).
3. Any of those that offered targets, or those targeted could have been scum.  Hence O ending the day early, could have yielded a result where the scum had a good chance of taking down the hider had they already claimed.

So, my theory at the moment (until I see reason to believe otherwise) is that one of the purposes of O ending the day quickly was a hope of catching the hider out, because he believed that scum could get a double-kill if the hider existed/had claimed a target.  Of course, there's also the added bit that town might have reconsidered their lynch target (which makes me suspicious of Cuzz, but unless O is scum, I have no reason to suspect Cuzz, and even if he is scum, Cuzz might be innocently implicated there).

As to cayvie: cayvie was second-to-last vote on pingpongsam...I think it's a somewhat reasonable possibility that ashersky killed her for that reason, lacking any stronger scum-reads.  For speculations on SK, I think it's best to wait and see what happens tonight.

[jotheonah]

Hey guys.

I don't look scummy. Nothing about my hammer is remotely scummy at all, but scum are pushing that image. "herp derp he hammered town after waffling his POV that totally makes him scummy" yea because that scum play makes sense, even from someone with a meta for scumplay that doesn't make sense.

I do find the wagon scummy, and my scumrobz read is still strong.

just moved into college dorm yesterday (freshman) so sketchy on-time this week, not lurking.

Yeah right. Answer these questions:

1) Why change your vote to pps after opposing the lynch?
2) Why hammer?
3) Why hammer after the town decided to pick hider targets and before that had been completed?

[Robz888]

I don't look scummy. Nothing about my hammer is remotely scummy at all, but scum are pushing that image. "herp derp he hammered town after waffling his POV that totally makes him scummy" yea because that scum play makes sense, even from someone with a meta for scumplay that doesn't make sense.

I do find the wagon scummy, and my scumrobz read is still strong.

just moved into college dorm yesterday (freshman) so sketchy on-time this week, not lurking.

Well, herp derp to you too.

[O]

Hey guys.

I don't look scummy. Nothing about my hammer is remotely scummy at all, but scum are pushing that image. "herp derp he hammered town after waffling his POV that totally makes him scummy" yea because that scum play makes sense, even from someone with a meta for scumplay that doesn't make sense.

I do find the wagon scummy, and my scumrobz read is still strong.

just moved into college dorm yesterday (freshman) so sketchy on-time this week, not lurking.

Yeah right. Answer these questions:

1) Why change your vote to pps after opposing the lynch?
2) Why hammer?
3) Why hammer after the town decided to pick hider targets and before that had been completed?

I kind of ignored the entire hider thing because I found it not very useful given that there was no guaranteed r there and I wasn't a hider
I thought the scum on the wagon's play was pretty terribly bad if PPS was town, so I thought they must be bussing. But if PPS survives an L-1 day D1 it becomes much much much harder to ever lynch him again. Unfortunately they didn't bus and I was wrong.

[jotheonah]

Ok, time to reread the thread with the knowledge that 4 folks are town. I'll also be looking closely at theorel to see if the hider discussion was a rolefish to try to hit double town and if Eevee somehow fell for it (we all know he likes to breadcrumb).

Basically it seems a little too much of a coincidence to me that we spent all that time talking hider theory day 1 and then the hider turned up dead. My hunch is there was more going on.

Unvote.

[Robz888]

Ok, time to reread the thread with the knowledge that 4 folks are town. I'll also be looking closely at theorel to see if the hider discussion was a rolefish to try to hit double town and if Eevee somehow fell for it (we all know he likes to breadcrumb).

Basically it seems a little too much of a coincidence to me that we spent all that time talking hider theory day 1 and then the hider turned up dead. My hunch is there was more going on.

Unvote.

My, you really are a cowardly O voter. Anyway, the hider discussion (which I did not participate in), was mostly Theorel's doing.

[jotheonah]

Ok, time to reread the thread with the knowledge that 4 folks are town. I'll also be looking closely at theorel to see if the hider discussion was a rolefish to try to hit double town and if Eevee somehow fell for it (we all know he likes to breadcrumb).

Basically it seems a little too much of a coincidence to me that we spent all that time talking hider theory day 1 and then the hider turned up dead. My hunch is there was more going on.

Unvote.

My, you really are a cowardly O voter. Anyway, the hider discussion (which I did not participate in), was mostly Theorel's doing.

It's not that. I actually liked O's response.  If O was scum, he spent the night coming up with his answer to the obvious question he was going to be asked: Why did you hammer? From scum O, I expected something polished. Instead, I got something that sort of made sense but was also sort of half-assed. Which reads town-O.

And then there's you, Robz. Your high confidence, your lack of remorse, and how quick you were on the O wagon today and how upset you are every time I jump off the O wagon. And then in this post where you quickly point out your lack of involvement with the hider discussion despite the fact that I never implied you were involved with it at all.

I'm halfway through my re-read, and I'm closer to voting you then O right now.

[Robz888]

It's not that. I actually liked O's response.  If O was scum, he spent the night coming up with his answer to the obvious question he was going to be asked: Why did you hammer? From scum O, I expected something polished. Instead, I got something that sort of made sense but was also sort of half-assed. Which reads town-O.

And then there's you, Robz. Your high confidence, your lack of remorse, and how quick you were on the O wagon today and how upset you are every time I jump off the O wagon. And then in this post where you quickly point out your lack of involvement with the hider discussion despite the fact that I never implied you were involved with it at all.

I'm halfway through my re-read, and I'm closer to voting you then O right now.

About O, I don't really disagree with you. It's just that, man, the world is not going to come to an end if he gets a little (well deserved) pressure.

And then there is me! I think it's a little unfair if what comes of the hider discussion is that I look scummy, given that I barely read that part of the conversation.

I have come to suspect that Cuzz is scum. See our earlier conversation. Vote: Cuzz

[jotheonah]

theorel, that's definitely at least worth considering, good catch. However, if I was the hider (or any other power role for that matter), I surely wouldn't know my target this early - how could you? I think when we get closer to the lynch, everyone should just list their supposed target. Don't see a good reason for anyone to refuse to do so either. If it seems everyone is choosing the same guy or something, can't we just abort the plan before the lynch or even in the twilight?

I also agree we should probably agree on a soft deadline, because otherwise we'll all just be focusing on Robz's game. We are already sort of wasting time here actually. Would one week from now be good? I don't even remember what you originally suggested because it wasn't really commented much.

Eevee didn't breadcrumb. Every reference to the hider he made was hypothetical. He did good.

BUT he was the second person to respond to the hider discussion and did way in on it comparatively a lot. It's possible that the scum looked through that conversation for someone who seemed extra-interested in the outcome to try to hider-hunt. It's very possible to me that Eevee was a best guess that turned out to be right (through no fault of his).

The thing is, theorel's hider discussion (which I now think was a bad move) reads town to me. So if the scum shot ashersky to hit Eevee on purpose, they were probably just opportunistically jumping on the hider discussion when they were choosing their target. Much like Robz opportunistically started the PPS wagon after PPS made a stupid pre-game VT claim and then defended it really badly.

PPE: @Robz. The only person linking you with the hider discussion right now is you.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-1

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (1): O
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not voting {6}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

I have come to suspect that Cuzz is scum. See our earlier conversation. Vote: Cuzz

Is this the earlier conversation in which you call me out for saying something that theorel already said, or the one where I explain myself and you don't respond with anything but a vote?

[Robz888]

I have come to suspect that Cuzz is scum. See our earlier conversation. Vote: Cuzz

Is this the earlier conversation in which you call me out for saying something that theorel already said, or the one where I explain myself and you don't respond with anything but a vote?

Oh, I like the response! It has snark, a pinch of menace, and calls into question my competence and/or motives.

You seemed better aware of Eevee's connection to the Hider role than anyone else. You were the first to say something about it. Oftentimes, though not always, this is a sign.

[theorel]

I'm not ready to put anyone at L-1 yet, but I will agree that that was some straight up craziness. I'm eager to see his defense.

Of course, there's also the added bit that town might have reconsidered their lynch target (which makes me suspicious of Cuzz, but unless O is scum, I have no reason to suspect Cuzz, and even if he is scum, Cuzz might be innocently implicated there).

theorel, can you explain this a little more? Not trying to be defensive, I just actually don't really understand why you'd suspect me. I felt ok with pps at L-2, and he was at L-2 when I went to bed that evening. When I woke up it was N1, so I didn't have time to unvote after cayvie's vote (not that I necessarily would have, but that's moot).

To clarify, nothing about your play regarding the pps hammer seems scummy.  What seems potentially scummy is that O hammered the pps-wagon before we really had a chance to discuss my suspicion of you yesterday.  Now, TBH I would be much more suspicious of you if joth had turned up dead...because that would indicate that the mafia was trying to eliminate me, but considered me a possible hider (which would make sense given my discussion on the subject).  So, really I'm most suspicious of you in the case where O and joth are both mafia, but to clarify, that argument in my opinion means that you're most suspicious along with 2 other players, and that seems unlikely...so you're less suspicious overall.  And if O is town, I have no more reason to be suspicious of you then yesterday, which is to say, I find your involvement in the pps-wagon suspicious, for the same reasons cited yesterday.  I was hoping that voting for you might lead to more information, instead it led to an abrupt end of the day...which itself is only informative if O is scum, which I heavily suspect.

Note: Sparky should be considered suspicious for similar reasons, perhaps moreso since ashersky-eevee died.

So, if O is scum then that implicates (IMO) everyone who was receiving suspicion when the day suddenly ended.  Which includes Cuzz and sparky as obvious targets.  I'll have to reread to see if there were any more.  It would implicate Robz, but O being scum means that either he tried to early-bus Robz, or Robz is town...so the implications are very different there from the sparky/cuzz situation.

@O:

I don't look scummy. Nothing about my hammer is remotely scummy at all, but scum are pushing that image. "herp derp he hammered town after waffling his POV that totally makes him scummy" yea because that scum play makes sense, even from someone with a meta for scumplay that doesn't make sense.

I thought the scum on the wagon's play was pretty terribly bad if PPS was town, so I thought they must be bussing. But if PPS survives an L-1 day D1 it becomes much much much harder to ever lynch him again. Unfortunately they didn't bus and I was wrong.

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

I am reading it this way because you give NO REASONS for your beliefs and state them as fact.  I find your actions regarding PPS as totally reasonable-scum-play.  You aborted the day early, because you feared it might go against your team if it continued much longer.  Here are two reasons why that might be the case:
1. the Hider-conversation, which you had tried to stifle was going through.  This was empowering a (potential) town PR, and that's undesirable for scum.
2. At least 2 players (myself and eevee) were trying to analyze players outside the PPS-Robz lynches.  If both PPS and Robz were town (which I believe to be probable), that's undesirable for scum.  Better to end the day on a town-lynch that you know you can make happen.

Now, if you want to say: "sure my play was scummy, but it's too obvious" that's fine.  (IMO)Obvious scum-play is obvious.

[Robz888]

And as long as O can do the bad thing and say it was too scummy for him to be scum... well, that leads to a loss.

[Cuzz]

I have come to suspect that Cuzz is scum. See our earlier conversation. Vote: Cuzz

Is this the earlier conversation in which you call me out for saying something that theorel already said, or the one where I explain myself and you don't respond with anything but a vote?

Oh, I like the response! It has snark, a pinch of menace, and calls into question my competence and/or motives.

You seemed better aware of Eevee's connection to the Hider role than anyone else. You were the first to say something about it. Oftentimes, though not always, this is a sign.

I was just frustrated because you keep saying things like the bolded part above, which is verifiably false. Theorel said something about it first, in the quote below (emphasis added):

What this has to do with the NKs:
Now, I'm not exactly sure how many people claimed hider targets, but:
1. O ended the day without warning, while some people who might have desired to claim a target had not yet done so.  (Question: how many potential hider-targets did we actually have last night?)
2. Other than myself, Eevee possibly offered the strongest arguments for using the hider plan (at least in the argument with cayvie).
3. Any of those that offered targets, or those targeted could have been scum.  Hence O ending the day early, could have yielded a result where the scum had a good chance of taking down the hider had they already claimed.

So, my theory at the moment (until I see reason to believe otherwise) is that one of the purposes of O ending the day quickly was a hope of catching the hider out, because he believed that scum could get a double-kill if the hider existed/had claimed a target.

My first mention of this idea was several posts later, where I even cite the fact that the idea came from theorel, not me:

There's also the possibility that theorel hinted at. After the hider discussion, mafia could have decided to aim for the person the hider would hide behind, and get a two-for-one kill. They then somehow picked up that Eevee was most likely to be hider, and killed his claimed hider-target ashersky.

I don't want to make this a huge thing, but I feel like we're either talking past each other and I wanted to try to clear it up. The only other possibility is that you're deliberately misrepresenting what happened.

[Cuzz]

That last sentence is very ungrammatical but you get my point.

[Cuzz]

Ugh, second to last sentence I mean.

[O]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

[O]

Also why are we ignoring that 3 people all voted for me within 4 posts. Not scummy as **** at all.

[jotheonah]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

[O]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

....go and reread? That's exactly what I thought and said, and is why I hammered PPS.

[O]

Has anyone made this connection yet? This game's Day 1 is extremely similar to MX Day 1, and involved many of the same people. Like MX, I strongly went after someone who made an early anti-town post. In that case it was Morgrim, in this case it's PPS. I proceeded to try and argue with the person, get their side of the story, but it didn't shake my believe that the person was more likely to be mafia than others.

Then O (in both cases) swooped in, took that person's side, and voted for my lynch. Ashersky has also sided against me, as he did (later with regret) in MX. I note that this time Frisk supports me, whereas last time he didn't, but last time he was mafia, so good for him here.

I will note that I was lynched Day 1 for my anti-Morgrim activity. I was town, but also wrong about Morgrim. O was also town.

So, this is a similar situation, although I have to say that arguing with PPS here has been more productive than arguing with Morgrim, which is a challenge of sorts, and I do think PPS should have known better. His offense was greater. That said, maybe this is just some weakness I have now, where I attempt to punish anti-town behavior Day 1, missing the scum. Still, punishing anti-town behavior isn't so bad, and this is PPS not Morgrim, so I think I am still standing by it.

But anyway, if I get lynched Day 1 again, for this very similar situation, it will be regrettable. I have a fairly recent (MX) meta for investigating anti-town activity to find scum, and it surprises me to see 5 people ready to lynch me for it. So, that's my defense.

similar situation, but your behavior is quite different.

So you don't think I'm scum this time, then?

Well you were town last time, and your behavior is quite different.

vote:pingpongsam

actually I smell bussing.

I mean really...

[Cuzz]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

....go and reread? That's exactly what I thought and said, and is why I hammered PPS.

You said "I smell bussing." You never said Robz was the one bussing. There were 6 other people on that wagon.

[O]

Well let's see. I said I smell bussing. I said i found robz suspicious. and when I voted for pps, I was SWITCHING MY VOTE FROM ROBZ.

hmmmmmmm this isn't obvious at all.

[jotheonah]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

....go and reread? That's exactly what I thought and said, and is why I hammered PPS.

What. I don't think I need to re-read anything. Robz is a good player (we both agree). Why does he start the day by accusing his partner and then continue to attack his partner for the entire day, encouraging other people to get on the wagon? I'm so confused.

Bussing is a thing that happens when a scum partner realizes his partner is doomed and throws his vote on the wagon for town cred. It is not a thing where a scum partner votes his partner at the start of Day 1 and never backs down or shows any sign whatsoever of promoting a different lynch.

[Robz888]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

....go and reread? That's exactly what I thought and said, and is why I hammered PPS.

What. I don't think I need to re-read anything. Robz is a good player (we both agree). Why does he start the day by accusing his partner and then continue to attack his partner for the entire day, encouraging other people to get on the wagon? I'm so confused.

Bussing is a thing that happens when a scum partner realizes his partner is doomed and throws his vote on the wagon for town cred. It is not a thing where a scum partner votes his partner at the start of Day 1 and never backs down or shows any sign whatsoever of promoting a different lynch.

It's also a thing Robz tried in Blitz Mafia, because why the heck not? and then proceeded to an immediate loss because there were... just... so... many... cops.

[jotheonah]

I'm back to Vote: O.

I wish someone somewhere would actually do something scummy instead of things that are just bafflingly anti-town.

[Insomniac]

I'm not buying the case on O. Like PPS yesterday O is reading town to me right now, I do think that Robz could be scum as I did yesterday, but also even though its over the top obvious I have a growing suspicion that sparky is scum I mean he hasn't said anything all day and was facing suspicion yesterday when the day ended. Put together with the fact that cayvie and ash died.
Tl;dr my highest suspicions are on sparky and robz.

[theorel]

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

And it's an argument for why you should try to be clear, rather than simply stating things as fact.  I was not the only one who misunderstood you apparently.  Thank you for clarifying.

So here's my understanding of your logical inconsistency, which could still be me misunderstanding your play yesterday (again because you don't really present cases, rather you just state things as fact and hope others will build the case for you), it could be because you just had bad logic, or it could be scummy logic.
You thought Robz MUST BE scum because of how he pushed the pps-wagon.  But then decided, that the only way that argument made any sense at all was if PPS was also scum.  So, you decided to lynch pps yesterday, and after he flipped town, have decided that you were wrong, and Robz is simply guilty of bad scum-play?
In other words: your entire argument yesterday was that Robz was scum BECAUSE he had bad scum-play.  But then you hammered PPS because you didn't believe that Robz would be guilty of such bad scum-play.

Honestly, you may be town having thought that, but it's much easier to believe that you would not be that irrational and that you are actually scum making up reasons for your suspicions.

Now, the other part of my post, which you failed to address at all: why is your play such bad scum-play?  Is it because: "Scum wouldn't quick-hammer like that, because town would just insta-lynch them the next day"?  There are 2 problems with this:
1. It implies that a reasonable town should actually lynch you.
2. It implies that people suspecting you are in fact not suspicious at all, because it is the expected behavior from a rational town.  Hence your post where you accuse the people who are voting for you is entirely out of place.

Re 2: This is the same problem I had with pps's argument from yesterday.  I said that his gambit was stupid because he'd just end up suspecting whoever accused him of anti-town play.  By the end of the day, his entire argument was against joth and Robz, the people that accused him over his anti-town play.  It was a terrible gambit, because it promoted OMGUS out of town.  If you are town, you simply need to admit that what you did was in fact really terrible town-play and so ridiculously anti-town that you deserve to be lynched for it, BUT you're actually town and are very sorry for hurting your team. As opposed to saying "Scum would never do something so obviously anti-town, hey look at these people accusing me for anti-town play, aren't they suspicious?  True townies never lynch people because of ridiculously over-the-top anti-town play."

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-2

O (2): theorel, jotheonah
Robz888 (1): O
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not voting {5}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[sparky5856]

Should have announced that I was V/LA yesterday, sorry everyone >_<

Although a couple things about this:

I'm not buying the case on O. Like PPS yesterday O is reading town to me right now, I do think that Robz could be scum as I did yesterday, but also even though its over the top obvious I have a growing suspicion that sparky is scum I mean he hasn't said anything all day and was facing suspicion yesterday when the day ended. Put together with the fact that cayvie and ash died.
Tl;dr my highest suspicions are on sparky and robz.

Why am I being singled out for not saying anything yet, what about Captain_Frisk? I mean it's true that I haven't had the time yesterday to be here, but ignoring other players in violation of what you called me suspicious can be costly.

Also, don't you mean cayvie and Eevee? They were the ones who voted for me yesterday, not cayvie and ash.

But more importantly:

Also why are we ignoring that 3 people all voted for me within 4 posts. Not scummy as **** at all.

Yeah... that's a red flag for me. Why did O get to L-2 so quickly when we have all the time in the world to discuss in Day 2? I mean, we lost four town so far, and we proceed by making a hasty L-2. That honestly scares me; it seems that scum are trying to win this game quickly; they KNOW we have loads to time to discuss, and they want to eliminate that advantage. Isn't anyone cautious of that?!

I'll be calling out specifics in a future post, but first I have to reread the thread. It probably will not be pretty. >_< (forgive me for my different tone, but after Night 1 and what has happened so far today, I'm not too happy; I'm being more overcautious than ever.)

[Robz888]

Why am I being singled out for not saying anything yet, what about Captain_Frisk? I mean it's true that I haven't had the time yesterday to be here, but ignoring other players in violation of what you called me suspicious can be costly.

What about Grujah? Seems to me he is the most conspicuously silent party. I can't think of a thing he's said.

But more importantly:

Also why are we ignoring that 3 people all voted for me within 4 posts. Not scummy as **** at all.

Yeah... that's a red flag for me. Why did O get to L-2 so quickly when we have all the time in the world to discuss in Day 2? I mean, we lost four town so far, and we proceed by making a hasty L-2. That honestly scares me; it seems that scum are trying to win this game quickly; they KNOW we have loads to time to discuss, and they want to eliminate that advantage. Isn't anyone cautious of that?!

Nonsense. No need for panic, I promise you he was in no danger of dying. We are far too hesitant to apply appropriate pressure, and someone like O wasn't going to get spooked and possibly slip up or give real honesty unless he was genuinely afraid. But no, there's this unnecessary panic that scum were speeding things a long. If they were, it would be a fortuitous clue and we could deal with them tomorrow.

So I disagree with sparky here, and I disagree with him so strongly that he can't help but make me suspicious. Of course I'm suspicious of a whole lot of people now.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey - Voters - has anyone pointed out that today could be out last day?

BE CAREFUL

Scenario:
3 Mafia flavor scum
1 Serial Killer flavor scum
5 townies

Step 1: Mislynch townie
Step 2: Serial Killer shot by scum
Step 3: Townie shot by serial killer

BE CAREFUL

@sparky - I have a well established history of not being around much on weekends.  If you'd like a blow by blow account of what I did this weekend, I can provide it, but most of yesterday was spent driving, playing golf, and watching my eagles get destroyed by Arizona.

[Robz888]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer, but that's a fair point. I don't to get MIVed (where I was also convinced there was no Serial Killer, was wrong, and for mostly unrelated reasons we lost).

[Insomniac]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer, but that's a fair point. I don't to get MIVed (where I was also convinced there was no Serial Killer, was wrong, and for mostly unrelated reasons we lost).

Nonsense Frisk had no reason to fakeclaim serial killer unless he was legitimately a townie.

[Robz888]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer, but that's a fair point. I don't to get MIVed (where I was also convinced there was no Serial Killer, was wrong, and for mostly unrelated reasons we lost).

Nonsense Frisk had no reason to fakeclaim serial killer unless he was legitimately a townie.

I'm not sure what I meant was clear. I was saying that not thinking there was a Serial Killer has hurt me in a previous Volt-modded mafia game, that's all. But I really don't think there's a Serial Killer here, unless we've got a lucky Doctor or JK or something.

[Captain_Frisk]

Did you read how this game was set up?

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B#Scum_Roles

You roll a d100 7 times, and then the scum powers are allocated based on the # of pure townies rolled.  A T rolls 50% of the time.

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)
TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

Given that 7Ts and 6Ts are now officially ruled out - because we definitely had 2 non Townies, there is a 52.5% chance that there is a serial killer in the game.  (if my math is correct)

Possible explanations for missing kills:
1. Asher didn't shoot
2. Shot collision
3. Someone shot attempted to shoot eevee straight up
4. Lucky protection

FOS: RobZ for making reads based on gut feel rather than whipping out excel.

[jotheonah]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer, but that's a fair point. I don't to get MIVed (where I was also convinced there was no Serial Killer, was wrong, and for mostly unrelated reasons we lost).

Nonsense Frisk had no reason to fakeclaim serial killer unless he was legitimately a townie.

I'm not sure what I meant was clear. I was saying that not thinking there was a Serial Killer has hurt me in a previous Volt-modded mafia game, that's all. But I really don't think there's a Serial Killer here, unless we've got a lucky Doctor or JK or something.

Weird that you would mention that possibility, but not the possibility of the vig just not following.

Here is the biggest thing for me, that no one else seems to be responding to:

1. O quickhammered a person he spent all day saying was town.

2. His explanation was that he thought a bus was more plausible than Robz playing scum badly.

3. BUT a bus in that case would be the LEAST plausible thing in the history of mafia, since RObz singled out and aggressively targeted PPS when there was no pre-existing case, and continued to push it despite there never being a serious case on anyone else.


So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

[Captain_Frisk]

Note - I am actually not serial killer hunting here - just pointing out the very real possibility that we can lose with a mislynch today.  If there is a SK, we either want need him to survive overnight, or we need to lynch him or scum today.

Oh - and the SK could have been bulletproof - which also could have accounted for a missing night kill.

[jotheonah]

If Robz or O is SK it would sort of explain why they're both reading so scummy to me but don't seem to be working together.

[Cuzz]

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

[Robz888]

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

[Robz888]

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

I just don't think there's a Serial Killer because all the deaths explain themselves so neatly. Eevee his behind ashersky and ashersky shot Cayvie, and the mafia shot ashersky. Certainly we need another night to really confirm that, but it looks like the most plausible thing right now.

If there is a SK, too, we're actually in quite bad shape, but perhaps we have a Doc or JK for balance.

[Insomniac]

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

Interesting that you're saying more sophisticated scum play is lurking when you aren't really facing any heat for completely wagoning a townie yesterday, when Eevee, and myself were completely against his lynch. The only heat you've received at all is from me and O whom is also scummy for quick hammering.

PPE:

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

I just don't think there's a Serial Killer because all the deaths explain themselves so neatly. Eevee his behind ashersky and ashersky shot Cayvie, and the mafia shot ashersky. Certainly we need another night to really confirm that, but it looks like the most plausible thing right now.

If there is a SK, too, we're actually in quite bad shape, but perhaps we have a Doc or JK for balance.

And yet no NK in MIV meant there was no SK too right?

[jotheonah]

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

But you're the one who keeps saying we can't ignore the obvious bad play.

[Robz888]

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

Interesting that you're saying more sophisticated scum play is lurking when you aren't really facing any heat for completely wagoning a townie yesterday, when Eevee, and myself were completely against his lynch. The only heat you've received at all is from me and O whom is also scummy for quick hammering.

PPE:

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

I just don't think there's a Serial Killer because all the deaths explain themselves so neatly. Eevee his behind ashersky and ashersky shot Cayvie, and the mafia shot ashersky. Certainly we need another night to really confirm that, but it looks like the most plausible thing right now.

If there is a SK, too, we're actually in quite bad shape, but perhaps we have a Doc or JK for balance.

And yet no NK in MIV meant there was no SK too right?

As to your second point, I am aware of this, said so, and I'm trying to keep that in mind. As to your point about me, obviously it's regrettable that PPS wasn't scum, and I deserve some suspicion there I suppose. And I think I'm getting it, most people express more than a passing interest in killing me. But there are lurkers among us (Grujah), there are non-wagoners who I think had good reason to nightkill a fellow non-wagoner, (Cuzz, theorel, you, others), and there's O. There's no shortage of suspicious people, really.

[Insomniac]

You do realize the only other time I've ever seen you use the some scum on some scum off the wagon logic was in M2 where you were scum and knew full well that both scum were on the wagon right?

[Robz888]

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

But you're the one who keeps saying we can't ignore the obvious bad play.

On Day 1, absolutely. On Day 2, yes, but we have to think about it more critically, and whether it makes sense for mafia. I'm not saying don't lynch O--that's why I wanted to keep pressure on him--and in fact, he could be mafia alongside one of the people I suspect more. But I don't know about him. Of course I think he's certainly one player who acts the same, regardless of whether he's mafia, so it's hard to tell whether irritable play makes him more likely to be scum.

[Robz888]

You do realize the only other time I've ever seen you use the some scum on some scum off the wagon logic was in M2 where you were scum and knew full well that both scum were on the wagon right?

Sure, and I was an evil liar then. But I think that analyzing where the scum is on wagons is perhaps my greatest strength asset to the town. And in fact I used it quite successfully to find scum in MIV (O) and MVI (eHalcyon, Ozle).

[sparky5856]

Why am I being singled out for not saying anything yet, what about Captain_Frisk? I mean it's true that I haven't had the time yesterday to be here, but ignoring other players in violation of what you called me suspicious can be costly.

What about Grujah? Seems to me he is the most conspicuously silent party. I can't think of a thing he's said.

He's already spoken today so I didn't mention him. But on the whole he's been rather quiet. Much unlike the last game I played with him...

Nonsense. No need for panic, I promise you he was in no danger of dying. We are far too hesitant to apply appropriate pressure, and someone like O wasn't going to get spooked and possibly slip up or give real honesty unless he was genuinely afraid. But no, there's this unnecessary panic that scum were speeding things a long. If they were, it would be a fortuitous clue and we could deal with them tomorrow.

Hey - Voters - has anyone pointed out that today could be out last day?

BE CAREFUL

Scenario:
3 Mafia flavor scum
1 Serial Killer flavor scum
5 townies

Step 1: Mislynch townie
Step 2: Serial Killer shot by scum
Step 3: Townie shot by serial killer

BE CAREFUL

This is the reason behind the panic. Maybe not specifically such, but this game isn't going to last a whole lot longer if we make more mistakes.

@sparky - I have a well established history of not being around much on weekends.  If you'd like a blow by blow account of what I did this weekend, I can provide it, but most of yesterday was spent driving, playing golf, and watching my eagles get destroyed by Arizona.

I was assuming you were V/LA, I was just trying to make a point to Insomniac. Also, go Ravens! 

*hasn't read back yet*

[Cuzz]

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

I just don't think there's a Serial Killer because all the deaths explain themselves so neatly. Eevee his behind ashersky and ashersky shot Cayvie, and the mafia shot ashersky. Certainly we need another night to really confirm that, but it looks like the most plausible thing right now.

If there is a SK, too, we're actually in quite bad shape, but perhaps we have a Doc or JK for balance.

And yet no NK in MIV meant there was no SK too right?

No one but Voltgloss has all the information about this (and the SK too if there is one). There is some nonzero chance that there is a SK, and some nonzero chance that there isn't. I agree with Robz that the most obvious explanation for last night doesn't include a SK, and I agree with Frisk that the probabilities say there's about a coinflip's chance that there is one. We should simply consider both possibilities going forward.



PPE:

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

Interesting that you're saying more sophisticated scum play is lurking when you aren't really facing any heat for completely wagoning a townie yesterday, when Eevee, and myself were completely against his lynch. The only heat you've received at all is from me and O whom is also scummy for quick hammering.

PPE:

As to your second point, I am aware of this, said so, and I'm trying to keep that in mind. As to your point about me, obviously it's regrettable that PPS wasn't scum, and I deserve some suspicion there I suppose. And I think I'm getting it, most people express more than a passing interest in killing me. But there are lurkers among us (Grujah), there are non-wagoners who I think had good reason to nightkill a fellow non-wagoner, (Cuzz, theorel, you, others), and there's O. There's no shortage of suspicious people, really.

I was on the wagon btw. Not sure how that should affect your level of suspicion but figured I'd point it out.

[jotheonah]

Robz and O both look super scummy to me.

[Cuzz]

Messed up that last quote of course:

PPE:

So it looks to me like O did something scummy (the quickhammer) and then offered an explanation for it that is completely nonsensical. How are people continuing to have a town read on him?

Jo, you're absolutely correct. I don't disagree with that at all. I just... I can't picture scum O bothering to scummily hammer a townie. Why was it necessary? Certainly sitting back and letting it happen was a better plan.

I suspect he didn't realize it was the hammer vote, and has tried to make up excuses. Ugh, maybe that does make him scum. I don't so much oppose his lynch as suspect that there is some subtler, more sophisticated scum play happening among the less active players.

Interesting that you're saying more sophisticated scum play is lurking when you aren't really facing any heat for completely wagoning a townie yesterday, when Eevee, and myself were completely against his lynch. The only heat you've received at all is from me and O whom is also scummy for quick hammering.

PPE:

If my math is correct I get a 35% chance of 3 mafia and a SK still left.

I just don't think there's a Serial Killer because all the deaths explain themselves so neatly. Eevee his behind ashersky and ashersky shot Cayvie, and the mafia shot ashersky. Certainly we need another night to really confirm that, but it looks like the most plausible thing right now.

If there is a SK, too, we're actually in quite bad shape, but perhaps we have a Doc or JK for balance.

And yet no NK in MIV meant there was no SK too right?

As to your second point, I am aware of this, said so, and I'm trying to keep that in mind. As to your point about me, obviously it's regrettable that PPS wasn't scum, and I deserve some suspicion there I suppose. And I think I'm getting it, most people express more than a passing interest in killing me. But there are lurkers among us (Grujah), there are non-wagoners who I think had good reason to nightkill a fellow non-wagoner, (Cuzz, theorel, you, others), and there's O. There's no shortage of suspicious people, really.

I was on the wagon btw. Not sure how that should affect your level of suspicion but figured I'd point it out.

[Insomniac]

@Sparky: I agree that Frisk has been lurky but Frisk ALWAYS lurks a bit (more so on weekends). I don't know your playstyle much yet and you were the attention of 2 dead townies (I did mean Eevee but also thought ash voted you at one point I was mistaken there). Frisk did not have heat from the dead townies to my recollection

[Robz888]

I was on the wagon btw. Not sure how that should affect your level of suspicion but figured I'd point it out.

Fine, correct my facts to make yourself look better, scum.

Just kidding, I'm sorry about that. Unvote because now I'm unsure of myself and I feel bad.

[Robz888]

Vote: Grujah

Your silence is deafening, considering that you are usually town and usually talkative.

[O]

Robz is still super-duper scummy, as is Theorel. Insomniac and Jotheonah read town to me.

[Robz888]

Robz is still super-duper scummy, as is Theorel. Insomniac and Jotheonah read town to me.

Jo reads town to me, but not Insomniac.

[O]

Robz is still super-duper scummy, as is Theorel. Insomniac and Jotheonah read town to me.

Jo reads town to me, but not Insomniac.

so insomniac is your scumbuddy? good to know.

[Insomniac]

Robz is still super-duper scummy, as is Theorel. Insomniac and Jotheonah read town to me.

Jo reads town to me, but not Insomniac.

I'd like to hear your case on me, because your reads have turned out SOOOO well this game.

I was on the wagon btw. Not sure how that should affect your level of suspicion but figured I'd point it out.

Fine, correct my facts to make yourself look better, scum.

Just kidding, I'm sorry about that. Unvote because now I'm unsure of myself and I feel bad.

Vote: Pingpongsam. This is NOT an RVS vote.

Got my role PM; VT, will be my first game as vanilla anything.

This annoyed me the second I saw it. It's such a Morgrim move. It's anti-town! We've been over this, and PPS should know better.

[Robz888]

Hey Insomniac, way to demonstrate my point that it's suicidal to ever accuse you, something I have noted as scum over and over and over again, and would absolutely never do... if I were scum.

[O]

Hey Insomniac, way to demonstrate my point that it's suicidal to ever accuse you, something I have noted as scum over and over and over again, and would absolutely never do... if I were scum.

Did insomniac vote for you? No? hmmm

[Robz888]

Hey Insomniac, way to demonstrate my point that it's suicidal to ever accuse you, something I have noted as scum over and over and over again, and would absolutely never do... if I were scum.

Did insomniac vote for you? No? hmmm

No, and neither did I vote for him. I made the mildest accusation of him and he fights back. It's classic Insomniac.

[jotheonah]

seriously though guys. How is O lynch not go lynch? I think my case is pretty rock solid.

[O]

seriously though guys. How is O lynch not go lynch? I think my case is pretty rock solid.

Yea, it's rock solid up to the point where I'm scum. Rather unfortunate blip there.

[O]

Hey Insomniac, way to demonstrate my point that it's suicidal to ever accuse you, something I have noted as scum over and over and over again, and would absolutely never do... if I were scum.

Did insomniac vote for you? No? hmmm

you made a mild comment, he responded mildly, then you jumped down his throat.

No, and neither did I vote for him. I made the mildest accusation of him and he fights back. It's classic Insomniac.

[jotheonah]

dude the case SAYS you're scum. If you are scum, that's a feature, not a bug.
Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O.

[Insomniac]

seriously though guys. How is O lynch not go lynch? I think my case is pretty rock solid.

dude it's soo early in the day, whats the hurry? we got Robz flailing around like a scum fish and I don't think O is scummy gut instinct as opposed to hard facts though, similar reasons to your original unvote O's defense feels more like town O than scum O.

[jotheonah]

I mean on the one hand, YES we have plenty of time.

On the other hand, we have two perfectly scummy candidates.

Take all the time you have is such bad meta, because early day cases get forgotten and obvious scum get away with it.

[Robz888]

I'm not sure any of the hyper talkative people are scum--myself, insomniac, joethonah, O. The reason is because it's fine for Frisk and Grujah to be super quiet and not generate suspicion. So why wouldn't scum just do that? Ergo, maybe they are doing that.

[O]

I mean on the one hand, YES we have plenty of time.

On the other hand, we have two perfectly scummy candidates.

Take all the time you have is such bad meta, because early day cases get forgotten and obvious scum get away with it.

obvious scum is notobvious scum.

[jotheonah]

PPS has some point, scum do want to be in control of the game, but it is counter intuitive to drive a wagon so early as scum, that said Robz/Jo now that PPS spoke up have either of your opinions changed or still blinders?

Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully.

[jotheonah]

I'm not sure any of the hyper talkative people are scum--myself, insomniac, joethonah, O. The reason is because it's fine for Frisk and Grujah to be super quiet and not generate suspicion. So why wouldn't scum just do that? Ergo, maybe they are doing that.

This argument also bugs me.

You will never ever see me lurk through a game, scum or town? You know why? Because I'm incapable of lurking. I post compulsively. Not everyone can just sit there and not post.

[Insomniac]

I mean on the one hand, YES we have plenty of time.

On the other hand, we have two perfectly scummy candidates.

Take all the time you have is such bad meta, because early day cases get forgotten and obvious scum get away with it.

I'm not saying we need to take a ton of time, I personally would (and will) Vote: Robz I cannot see myself voting for O. Robz has driven the O case as hard as he drove the PPS case where he was wrong, and only now has started to back down. I'm getting a town read on O plain and simple you don't get to L-2 on a weekend as scum you get there as town with some scum on your wagon. I've had a scum read on Robz since day 1 and he continues to seem scummy.

That said I still want to hear out of the quiet ones more before the day ends, has Grujah said anything today are we ok letting someone get by an entire day without talking? Isn't sparky doing a reread that we expect to be followed by a post? Why is Frisk weekday quiet?

[Robz888]

I'm not sure any of the hyper talkative people are scum--myself, insomniac, joethonah, O. The reason is because it's fine for Frisk and Grujah to be super quiet and not generate suspicion. So why wouldn't scum just do that? Ergo, maybe they are doing that.

This argument also bugs me.

You will never ever see me lurk through a game, scum or town? You know why? Because I'm incapable of lurking. I post compulsively. Not everyone can just sit there and not post.

Right, I know that. But I lurked through MIX and BMV at least in part because I was scum. And Grujah, for instance, has been highly active in a recent game where he was town, MIX.

[Robz888]

I mean on the one hand, YES we have plenty of time.

On the other hand, we have two perfectly scummy candidates.

Take all the time you have is such bad meta, because early day cases get forgotten and obvious scum get away with it.

I'm not saying we need to take a ton of time, I personally would (and will) Vote: Robz I cannot see myself voting for O. Robz has driven the O case as hard as he drove the PPS case where he was wrong, and only now has started to back down. I'm getting a town read on O plain and simple you don't get to L-2 on a weekend as scum you get there as town with some scum on your wagon. I've had a scum read on Robz since day 1 and he continues to seem scummy.

That said I still want to hear out of the quiet ones more before the day ends, has Grujah said anything today are we ok letting someone get by an entire day without talking? Isn't sparky doing a reread that we expect to be followed by a post? Why is Frisk weekday quiet?

I pushed for votes on O because I felt like he needed some real pressure. I didn't want him killed right away, no. Since then, I've come to regard some other people as more scummy. To me, O is the same as always, which is fairly scummy, but not the most scummy person ever. I am looking for subtler mafia.

[Cuzz]

Vote: Grujah. Say something and give me a townread and I'll unvote.

And call me naive but am I the only one who thinks Robz is town? (cue Robz and hid scumbuddies laughing as I say this)

[yuma]

Vote Count 2-3

O (2): theorel, jotheonah
Robz888 (2): O, Insomniac
Grujah (2): Robz, Cuzz

Not voting {3}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856, Grujah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

I will happily switch to the Robz wagon if it comes down to it, but O looks scummier-than-normal to me for sure.

[sparky5856]

*too lazy to read back* I have the whole MXI thread to read anyway.

Let me just collect thoughts from Day 2 so far:

Jesus Christ.

Stating an "oh no...." kind of moment, like he did in MIX when he stated "guys? we lynched the town doctor. That's... bad." And he was scum there.

Are we to make something out of the flavor?

Did Eevee said anything about whom he would potentially hide behind?

Very next post. Grujah specifically avoids what I mentioned above. He was a sharp player in MIX, is he a sharp enough scum player to not give a reaction to the three town deaths overnight?

posts #380 - #387

I literally facepalmed when I read over these. On one front, it DOES set up a scum quickhammer scenario. And on another front, it seems way too obvious here that Jo and Robz are scumbuddies pretending to argue. They were together on the PPS front, and now they're gathering the spotlight by going against each other.  It's a very likely scenario. Scum love to be in control of the game, we've mentioned this several times already.

But what doesn't make sense, is that if they're both scum, why would they attempt to start a quick hammer at L-4? Unless they just want to gather the spotlight. This front is so obvious that it can really go either way >_<

So if we think the mafia were both on and off the wagon--which is probably likely--we are looking at a mafia among theorel, Insomniac, and sparky.

On the wagon, we've got some number of mafia among Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz, jotheonah, Robz888, and O.

If you ask me, there has to be at least SOME mafia among the PPS wagon. He was right when he said "scum know I'm town." And hey, this includes jo and Robz. And Grujah. His vote on PPS was to elicit a response out of him...

PPS, why WIFOMing everybody straight from the start? doesn't seem town. I want answers! Vote: Pingpongsam

...but he doesn't ever remove his vote.

Yeah right. Answer these questions:

1) Why change your vote to pps after opposing the lynch?
2) Why hammer?
3) Why hammer after the town decided to pick hider targets and before that had been completed?

Same thing jo did to PPS: push on O hard and never let go. Is this how he always plays? Is this town-like or scum-like behavior for jo? He could be a townie who's doing his hardest to look out for us. I mean, he's taking a lot of initiative on his reads.

Here's how I read your defense there O:
"My hammer wasn't scummy because it would be terribly bad scum-play."
"I hammered because I thought scum was guilty of terribly bad scum-play."

With all due respect, this is why I avoid debating with you. I hammered because I thought scum wasn't guilty of terribly bad scumplay, which would have been pushing a town lynch that hard that early. Since I had respect of Robz's scumplay, I assumed he was likely bussing, which I thought would have been much less bad scum play.

That makes NO SENSE. Robz attacked PPS instantly out of the gate and pushed his wagon relentlessly all day. That would be the most epic bus in the history of busses! You can't seriously expect us to think you believed BOTH Robz and PPS were scum.

....go and reread? That's exactly what I thought and said, and is why I hammered PPS.

What. I don't think I need to re-read anything. Robz is a good player (we both agree). Why does he start the day by accusing his partner and then continue to attack his partner for the entire day, encouraging other people to get on the wagon? I'm so confused.

Bussing is a thing that happens when a scum partner realizes his partner is doomed and throws his vote on the wagon for town cred. It is not a thing where a scum partner votes his partner at the start of Day 1 and never backs down or shows any sign whatsoever of promoting a different lynch.

That is a perfectly legitimate strategy! Although it's no longer the case now, but still. I can understand O's point-of-view here. You said it yourself; it would be an epic bus. It's crazy scumplay but I've seen it work. Didn't I point out a situation where both PPS and Robz were scum?

Maybe Jo and Robz are pushing for the death of their scummate PPS, using him as bait just so they themselves look less suspicious.

oh yeah.

And about O, as I mentioned before scum O tends to push lynches to infinity. Here was an unexpected hammer that he has reasons for. That to me reads more town, but maybe that's what he wants us to think...

Ooooh juicy juicy juicy

I pretty much never get a scum read on Robz. Sometimes I can convince myself to vote him based on evidence, but he's really very good at seeming town to me.

Basically if Robz is to be lynched, you probably can't count on me to be on that wagon.

I will happily switch to the Robz wagon if it comes down to it, but O looks scummier-than-normal to me for sure.

So, overall, we have several situations. Jo and Robz are both scum, Jo is an overly pro-town townie pinpointing actual scum (Robz and O), both are town and the mafia are among the lurkers, or a combination of these (i.e. at least one lurker). Unfortunately, it would help to know at least one member of the mafia so I can narrow down the possibilities further. This may be a long day. For now, VOTE: Grujah, my strongest and most-likely-to-be-right scum-read, because to call out a scum-pair with no known mafia is a ballzy move, I understand that. I called it because I'm overcautious. That's how I play.

Query: What are everyone's thoughts on Captain_Frisk? He's been out on nearly all the action so far.

[jotheonah]

I'll speak to the last pair of quotes from me.

Robz evidently took my vote of confidence as a challenge. And then succeeding in being so scummy that even I suspect him. Yet, still not as scummy as O.

[Robz888]

sparky, I am also bothered by Frisk's lurking, though it's not as egregious as Grujah's. Also, Frisk is very, very often mafia, and he doesn't lurk in those cases. So I am less inclined to punish or suspect him.

Grujah's lack of presence here is becoming ridiculous.

[sparky5856]

sparky, I am also bothered by Frisk's lurking, though it's not as egregious as Grujah's. Also, Frisk is very, very often mafia, and he doesn't lurk in those cases. So I am less inclined to punish or suspect him.

Don't you remember he was WW in MIX, and at Day 1's final hours everyone was wondering where Frisk was? Although I'm tempted to believe that if he IS mafia a lot, he's gotta be town at least some of the time, particularly now.

[Robz888]

Although I'm tempted to believe that if he IS mafia a lot, he's gotta be town at least some of the time, particularly now.

No no no no. Don't ever say that, you'll anger the probability gods. Frisk has been scum in almost every game. That has no bearing on whether he was randomly selected to be scum here.

[jotheonah]

Although I'm tempted to believe that if he IS mafia a lot, he's gotta be town at least some of the time, particularly now.

No no no no. Don't ever say that, you'll anger the probability gods. Frisk has been scum in almost every game. That has no bearing on whether he was randomly selected to be scum here.

We don't want to anger the probability gods. If ZM2 is any indication, they really like me right now.

[sparky5856]

Although I'm tempted to believe that if he IS mafia a lot, he's gotta be town at least some of the time, particularly now.

No no no no. Don't ever say that, you'll anger the probability gods. Frisk has been scum in almost every game. That has no bearing on whether he was randomly selected to be scum here.

Very true, but you gotta think at least one of these games the probability gods will actually make sense. Unfortunately that may be wishful thinking. Who knows. Only the host. (And Frisk's scummates.)

[Robz888]

I can't believe Grujah still isn't saying anything.

[Insomniac]

I can't believe Grujah still isn't saying anything.

What's worse is he HAS been around, I'm not willing to vote him quite yet, but if he still isn't contributing by tomorrow I could see myself voting for Grujah. Since this Robz wagon is just SO HARD to push...it's like no scum want on this wagon because Robz is scum. It was a hard wagon to push yesterday and continues to be a hard wagon to push today.

[Grujah]

Gonna post tonight.

[theorel]

And about O, as I mentioned before scum O tends to push lynches to infinity. Here was an unexpected hammer that he has reasons for. That to me reads more town, but maybe that's what he wants us to think...

I think this is an invalid meta on O.  I personally don't feel he played like this in either MIV or MVIII, where he was scum.  I feel like his push on Robz here reads exactly like his pushes on other players there.  And his quick-hammer, well...

Whether scum-O would quick-hammer someone he claimed a town-read on is debatable. In MVIII he declared that there was no way he could change his vote to someone he had declared a town-read on, either as scum or town.  I replied that it implied if he changed his mind he was scum.  He defended himself by saying he would have been instantly lynched if he changed like that.

Now, in this game, that prediction starts to come to fruition (i.e. O quick-hammered a claimed town-read, and starts the next day quickly climbing to three votes.  Which Robz unvoted almost immediately, so I don't really see this as scummy personally, except maybe joth, trying not to miss bussing his partner).  And he now declares that anyone who actually thinks he should be lynched for this behavior is scum.

I think this reads exactly like scum-O defending himself.  IMO scum-O defends himself by declaring how his actions are too ridiculous to be scum, and then declaring that the people suspecting him are scum.  That's the way that I read him acting all through MVIII.  But, I will admit that I could be wrong.  So, I'm going to try to look around for other scum, I mean there are at least 2 others, though one of those might be a SK if we do in fact have one.

I just one question for anyone to answer: To me, one of the reasons O seems scummy is because he hammered with no time given for response.  pps had only been at L-1 for 3 hours when O hammered.  It was the middle of the night.  O, cayvie and Eevee were the only 3 people around.  There was no warning that we were at the end of the day.  So, it's a quick-hammer, not just a hammer.  Now, in all situations I can think of, quick-hammers have been scum.  (I can only think of a couple examples of it even happening).  I may be unfairly biasing against it because it's something that just seems to me so over-the-top scummy that there is NO WAY town could do this...maybe I'm wrong there though.  So, the question is:
Are there any examples of town quick-hammering? 
Even an accidental example of a town quick-hammer would be acceptable.  Morgrim is a special case, that should be excluded, unless no other examples can be found.
So, I would like to see a town quick-hammer example.
If a non-Morgrim example can be produced, I'll give O -10 scum-points (taking him down to 55) and take my vote off.
If only a Morgrim example can be produced, I'll still give O -5 scum-points (taking him to 60).

Either way, I will look around at the rest of the town.  I don't think that everyone should lynch O right now.  But in my mind O is so clearly obviously scum, that I want my vote to remain on him.  Also, although everyone talks about how O was so quick to get to L-2, he was also really quick to get right back to a single vote.  That sort of explosiveness in the vote-count seems reasonable for votes on scum.  I'm personally reminded of how quickly Frisk hit L-1, in MVIII then went back down to 0 votes, until finally he was lynched.  He was scum, being bussed, and that's what it actually looks like, because scum wants their vote to be there if the lynch goes through, but doesn't want the lynch to look too viable, if they can avoid it.  It may or may not be the case here...just pointing out that it's not like a quick 3 votes makes someone town.

[Robz888]

I'm just worried about getting a false positive on O. He's been mafia in MIV, MV, MVIII, and MIX. By now I expect O to look scummy.

[jotheonah]

Which Robz unvoted almost immediately, so I don't really see this as scummy personally, except maybe joth, trying not to miss bussing his partner). 

Um, I'm the one who unvoted almost immediately. Robz stayed on and gave me hard time about unvoting.

[Robz888]

Okay, I'm annoyed with the amount of lurking going on, so I did a post count to make myself more annoyed. These do not include /in and confirmation nonsense.

Grujah 10 (!!!)
Captain_Frisk 18 (!!)
sparky5856 19 (!)
theorel 27
Cuzz 28
insomniac 35
O 38
jotheonah 57
Robz 84

So I get the gold star for not lurking. AND I HAVE POSTED 10 TIMES MORE OFTEN THAN GRUJAH. The bottom three are ridiculous right now. If you're town, you're putting a huge strain on the rest of us to figure things out. If you're scum, you're playing well, because it seems like non-activity categorically raises less suspicion than activity.

theorel has a low-ish level of posts but his are rather well-conceived and thorough, so I'm fine with his post count. Cuzz's posts aren't nearly as informative, he sort of straddles the radar, and I find him pretty suspicious. Everybody above that... I'm becoming quite disinclined to look for scum there, because why would scum bother being so active? Non-acitivty gets you way more bang for your buck.

Unless a damn good case to the contrary is presented, my final vote will be for Grujah, Frisk, or sparky. It's already for Grujah in the meantime.

[Robz888]

Insomniac, jotheonah, get over here. I know you're around. I dare you to disagree with me.

The lurkers aren't going to defend themselves, because they can easily get away with not doing so.

[Insomniac]

Insomniac, jotheonah, get over here. I know you're around. I dare you to disagree with me.

The lurkers aren't going to defend themselves, because they can easily get away with not doing so.

I saw your post I just didn't comment because I completely agree. Grujah said he is going to post tonight, Frisk said he has a busy work day today.

Sparky I was already suspicious of but it also seems too obvious. theorel does indeed make posts so to me that makes Cuzz more suspicious then theorel, but I don't have that many more posts than Cuzz and O is only 3 more than me so it really becomes a where is the line question.

So in short I agree.

[Robz888]

Insomniac, jotheonah, get over here. I know you're around. I dare you to disagree with me.

The lurkers aren't going to defend themselves, because they can easily get away with not doing so.

I saw your post I just didn't comment because I completely agree. Grujah said he is going to post tonight, Frisk said he has a busy work day today.

Sparky I was already suspicious of but it also seems too obvious. theorel does indeed make posts so to me that makes Cuzz more suspicious then theorel, but I don't have that many more posts than Cuzz and O is only 3 more than me so it really becomes a where is the line question.

So in short I agree.

To me, Cuzz is sitting squarely on the line, which is not a good thing. Particularly because as scum, he wouldn't be as sure as Frisk and Grujah as to how you little you can post and still get away with things. So he's right where he would be if scum. The only problem with this theory is that he's pretty much done the same thing in MX, when he was town (I think?).

I'm aware Grujah said he would post later. In general I do like the "I'll post later!" posts, because it's better than nothing, and we don't have to worry you've disappeared. But it here, it's as if he knows he's dropped out of the realm of "I can reasonably expect to get away with this" and into "someone is going to call me out for this." I hit that point in MIX on Day 1, when I was hardcore lurking as scum. Voltgloss called attention to it, voted for me, and demanded I vote for someone or contribute in some way. I knew he was right; I was lurking TOO much, and I immediately complied.

Frisk is arguably worse. At least Grujah's absence is so conspicuous and total that it might credibly be explained by outside factors. Frisk, I know, has been swamped IRL moreso lately, and he did quit all his games simultaneously once... but he keeps signing up for more games, and I know he's sick of playing scum after MIV, MVI, MVIII, MIX, MX, and ZM2. This might just be further example of his scum burn out. I get the feeling that he would be excited to be town, and might post more. Well, he's not, so maybe he's not.

[Insomniac]

Frisk does lurk a lot as scum but I'm tempted to think thats just become more of his playstyle than a scumtell for him in my reads of him but I guess I can't recall having seen a vanilla townie frisk let alone a town frisk (MV hardly counts). And we do have a terrible meta for letting lurkers live.

[jotheonah]

I agree that Grujah needs to post.

Voltgloss, can we get a prod?

[Voltgloss]

Grujah's last post was this morning, so under the rules he's not yet due for a prod.

Vote Count 2-4

O (2): theorel, jotheonah
Robz888 (2): O, Insomniac
Grujah (3): Robz, Cuzz, sparky5856

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, Grujah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[sparky5856]

Grujah 10 (!!!)
Captain_Frisk 18 (!!)
sparky5856 19 (!)

So the difference between 18 and 19 posts is one exclamation point? 

Hey, these posts can take a while to construct sometimes, and sometimes I don't have time. >_< I said already that it's normal for me to have a low amount of posts.

Robz's Lynch All Lurkers policy is probably the best one at this point. It's very possible to for scum to see Robz, jo, and O suspecting and killing each other (all town) and just let them do so, not giving any input. Because honestly, you all have been so at each other that I wouldn't be surprised if some scum were lurking >_< I like that Robz is thinking this way, he gets at least a few more town points. I tried to gather attention on Frisk, one of the lurkers, with my query. With this:

Frisk is arguably worse. At least Grujah's absence is so conspicuous and total that it might credibly be explained by outside factors. Frisk, I know, has been swamped IRL moreso lately, and he did quit all his games simultaneously once... but he keeps signing up for more games, and I know he's sick of playing scum after MIV, MVI, MVIII, MIX, MX, and ZM2. This might just be further example of his scum burn out. I get the feeling that he would be excited to be town, and might post more. Well, he's not, so maybe he's not.

...if Frisk is town, he's doing a poor job of maintaining his alignment. On the other hand, he might know better at this point to lurk as scum. But maybe not.

UNVOTE: Grujah, at least we know that he WILL (well actually, SHOULD) post tonight.

VOTE: Captain_Frisk

[sparky5856]

vote: pps[/]

I don't mind letting a morgrim or a newb get away with this - but we can't start allowing experienced players to do explicitly anti town stuff.

only reason for voting PPS. And never lets go. Just like Grujah. Can't believe I missed this earlier. (I mean, it's in bold >_< )

[sparky5856]

Hey, that's a good way to bring up your post count. Just post all your thoughts several posts in a row and not all at once 

[jotheonah]

been doing that forever.

Guys, I stand by what I said in a different game. Lurker lynch is dumb when there's obvscum everywhere amongst the talkers.

[Robz888]

been doing that forever.

Guys, I stand by what I said in a different game. Lurker lynch is dumb when there's obvscum everywhere amongst the talkers.

Here's how this goes. I disagree with you. We argue. If we were different people, (Insomniac and O, for example), it might even get ugly. But we'll say things that will inevitably set other people off. They will pounce. Someone will pounce on the pouncers. And eventually we're all forming strong opinions on each other, precisely because we're talking.

See how neatly Frisk and Grujah avoid this dilemma entirely, and go unpunished? It's madness and it must end immediately.

[Grujah]

FWIW, re-reading whole thread before I post, currently on page 12.

[Insomniac]

been doing that forever.

Guys, I stand by what I said in a different game. Lurker lynch is dumb when there's obvscum everywhere amongst the talkers.

Here's how this goes. I disagree with you. We argue. If we were different people, (Insomniac and O, for example), it might even get ugly. But we'll say things that will inevitably set other people off. They will pounce. Someone will pounce on the pouncers. And eventually we're all forming strong opinions on each other, precisely because we're talking.

See how neatly Frisk and Grujah avoid this dilemma entirely, and go unpunished? It's madness and it must end immediately.

Why do you think arguments with me get ugly...?

[Robz888]

been doing that forever.

Guys, I stand by what I said in a different game. Lurker lynch is dumb when there's obvscum everywhere amongst the talkers.

Here's how this goes. I disagree with you. We argue. If we were different people, (Insomniac and O, for example), it might even get ugly. But we'll say things that will inevitably set other people off. They will pounce. Someone will pounce on the pouncers. And eventually we're all forming strong opinions on each other, precisely because we're talking.

See how neatly Frisk and Grujah avoid this dilemma entirely, and go unpunished? It's madness and it must end immediately.

Why do you think arguments with me get ugly...?

I don't think they get real ugly. Just a tad hotter than Jo. Among the people currently playing. This isn't the wildest bunch of mafia players, and nobody holds a candle to O in terms of bad temperament (no offense O ["None taken," he responds]).

[Cuzz]

I'm gonna work on posting more. It's funny because I spend an awful lot of time reading this game so I tend to feel like I'm participating more than I actually am.

Anyway, I'm really eager to hear what Grujah has to say, and I'd really like to hear from Frisk as well. As far as I remember, Frisk weighed in yesterday with discussion of probability of having various scum combinations, but gave no opinions on recent events which is serious IIoA, which is a useful term I just learned.

To both of them, I'd pose the following questions:
1. How do you feel about the O quickhammer? Does he look like scum or do you buy his defense (that he thought Robz was bussing scum pps)?
2. How does Robz look to you after tunneling town pps?
3. Do you have any suggestions on whom to lynch today?

I'm still leaning toward agreeing with jo about O. There are very few reasons to quickhammer as town and I'm not sure the explanation O gave today is one of them, nor am I sure that I buy the explanation in the first place. But I also agree with Robz that the lurkers need to speak up.

I also am a little suspicious of Insomniac, but don't have a really strong read. He hasn't said a ton that's stuck out for me, but what does stick out is his adamant defense of pps D1. It was quite strong, and could imply he knew pps was town. Knowing pps was going to flip town, scum could have argued against the lynch hard to build town cred, especially if they  thought pps's behavior was bad enough to get him lynched D1 without their help.

I actually get at least mild townreads on everyone else, but I'm sure to be wrong about some of them.

[Grujah]

Read whole thread, at least most of it, I usually just scimm theo and sparky cuz I hate wall of text posts. I might miss something. By order (Also sorry for no post-quotes, crappy itnernet is crappy):

1 - ashersky (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Noble Brigand)
Thing to note: If he did indeed shoot cayvie (instead of holding) It might have been cuz O was, in one of last D1 posts, like, "if PPS is town, and Robz is scum, cayvie is scum". Think it is worth noting.

2 - Robz888 - Ugh, I read him and he seems ok and than me makes all these little things that urk me on and on. I tried to seem his as not scummy every time but.. jeez.

Day 1 he backpatted/buddied up jo on most jo's post, this stinks scumRobz as per MIV. He made some semi-scummy posts that I rightfully gave a pass and still do as it were one of those things that get labeled as scummy but ain't mafia play (like urging that he would more like get a faster than a slower lynch).

One more thing, which is not scummy per se but bad townplay (maybe scummy if he is considered SK) - he said openly that he is not interested in Hider debate - it gives scum a wink that he ain't hider.

Now, it does seem scummy do to so after pursuing PPS after the similar thing whole day - if you really are bothered that much but
why do it as well?

Next thing that came to my mind is jo asking him why is he giving O a "pass" for some bad-play after pursuing O, and him giving the so obviously bad answer: "cuz it's D2". This makes no sense to me.
(this after he argued jo about O pressure, don't think it makes much sense to connect these two things, though).

Finally, he brags how he's best asset is to analyze wagons. He mentions MIV, and it did catch O.
But MVI? Really? You were WW there and had more info.
You caught eHalc with your Cop/Rolecop, not with wagon.
You didn't catch OZLE AT ALL. He was shot cuz of his stupid tracker-claim.

Why the hell lie so obviously?

3 - Eevee (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Tunneler)

4 - Captain_Frisk
Read whole thing, only a single thing I remmeber, aside from him voting PPS.
Him IIoAing and than FosING Robz for "going on a hunch about roles instead of pulling out excel".
Robz tends to mess up/forget about roles and setup a lot, prolly cuz he is in infinitely many games. He has done this before, I think it's like public knowledge by now. Most obvious example being MVI.

Way too under the radar.

5 - cayvie (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Border Villager)
read ashersky.

6 - sparky5856
in MIX, I also mostly scimmed his posts, but one thing that struck me there (something about Ins and ninjas) was read awesomely scummy and I was right.
Now, what struck me here?
As I said before, and people are dismissing it cause it seems harmless, but his random vote on Cuzz where he "blames RVS" when there was no RVS. PPS discussing was flaming and he deflects by voting Cuz.
Later, he was accused of sidelining on PPS thing and he deflected again by saying that those who "changed their mind" (from PPS to Robz or vv) were more scummy. This is not true. Sidelining is a sign of being afraid of seeming scummy so sides are not taken, switching is sign of human (scum or town) mental reasoning, methinks.
Lot of deflection, unsureness .. hmm.

Also, one more thing:
You went after Robz for his "Jesus Christ" open D1. Than wrote soemthing about me I dind't completely understand which was related to "Jesus Christ" thing.
Advice: drop it, it is friutless to pursue it. Take it from the guy who has done it the first/most here.

7 - jotheonah
My biggest townread. Here is where he has bought me - the Vote/unvote on O. It seems so town-jo. He charges recklessly into voting, than cools town and tries to play saner(done this in MVI with .. cayvie?? and Morg's BM and elsewhere). Also this recent heavy-thing on O seems townconfidend too.

8 - Insomniac
Somewhat townread. He seem to be a little low on trigger (i.e. not acussing too many people) and defending others, generally I didn't get any scummy vibe. A little underradarish too.
9 - Grujah
Hi.
10 - Cuzz
Generally bad vibe.
Way under the radar and also there was one SUPERSCUMMY post D1 where he wanted to vote PPS (i think) but didn't cuz "anyone voting now would do a bad, scummy thing by pushing it to L-2 too soon" or something like that. He even said something like "i'm going to observe if somebody does it".
Now, once he has sad that, it looses all meaning. If you annonce that "something is bad and you are looking for it" - you have just said scum what to do. Or, you have told your scummbuddies what to do or not do.

Also, that reluctant-ness is scummy, see sparky.

I think there was more that I forgot. (Either that or nothing else was of matter).
11 - pingpongsam (DEAD; lynched Day 1 - Town Border Villager)
Don't do the VT thing again, please.

12 - O
Ugh, I cannot read this guy. I remmeber hating him "not caring at all" about hider thing. Ok, you don't find it, but if you are town, no reason not to contribute if all other do, or at least to consider that some people want this discussion finished D1 and than didn't manage to cuz of you. He's town/scum read seem so random sometimes,I don't get it most of the time. Hammer was bad. I need to read him again, methinks, as I am confused here mostly.

13 - theorel
To me, (I did scimm his posts ost of the time, though) he seems only to do 2 things - theorycraft and tunnel on O. Whenever a theory thing comes up (liek softdeadline), he discuss it in in details. Aside from that I didn't notice much contributions. Also seems to be very chatty about roles, kinda rolefishy, and he made one post D1 (will try to refer it later) where he said it was smart and even encouraged.. ugh.. DOCTOR CLAIM. "As long as it is believed" he said. Really?
How is it good IN ANY WAY? Doc claim is worst claim.

---

Overall I seem to find most people scummy to an extent.

I guess I shoudl re-read this post of mine and decide whom I find most scummy once I've lined it up like this.
PPE: 1 new post.

[Grujah]

(inb4 "Grujah, you said you hate wallposts and than wallposted")

I should have bolded the names to make it easier to read.

[Robz888]

I appreciate the long post, although it may not change my opinion of you after all. Importantly, you say three things about me which I believe are mistaken. Two of them are, I believe, harmless mistakes.

2 - Robz888 - Ugh, I read him and he seems ok and than me makes all these little things that urk me on and on. I tried to seem his as not scummy every time but.. jeez.

Day 1 he backpatted/buddied up jo on most jo's post, this stinks scumRobz as per MIV. He made some semi-scummy posts that I rightfully gave a pass and still do as it were one of those things that get labeled as scummy but ain't mafia play (like urging that he would more like get a faster than a slower lynch).

I was not scum in MIV! I was town. Did you mean MVI? I was accused of buddying up there, but honestly I don't think I did it more in that game than any other. My most egregious buddying up must have been in MVIII when I slowly won Insomniac's trust by being nice to him post Day 2.

One more thing, which is not scummy per se but bad townplay (maybe scummy if he is considered SK) - he said openly that he is not interested in Hider debate - it gives scum a wink that he ain't hider.

Now, it does seem scummy do to so after pursuing PPS after the similar thing whole day - if you really are bothered that much but
why do it as well?

It's not the same thing! I was in no way suggesting that I was not the hider; only that I had nothing to add to the discussion, and wasn't positive it was net helpful to the town. Indeed, in hindsight it was probably a bad discussion, since it arguably resulted in Eevee's death. However, it surprises me that you picked this out as something other than what it was. Were you trying to narrow down who was likely to be a hider or something?

Finally, he brags how he's best asset is to analyze wagons. He mentions MIV, and it did catch O.
But MVI? Really? You were WW there and had more info.
You caught eHalc with your Cop/Rolecop, not with wagon.
You didn't catch OZLE AT ALL. He was shot cuz of his stupid tracker-claim.

Why the hell lie so obviously?

I am not lying, I absolutely did a great job finding scum. Sure I had more info, but still. I chose to investigate eHalc because he was at the end of the town-Eevee wagon, and had my suspicions vindicated. I was in fact the first person to vote Ozle, almost immediately, on Day 1 over his scummy awful self-imposed posting style. I encouraged Galzria to shoot Ozle on Day 2, and was unsurprised to find him turn up a dead mafia. Maybe it's not jaw-droppingly amazing, but I get some credit for scumhunting there.

[Grujah]

1) I meant MVI.

2) You taking no interest in Hider thing kinda suggest you are not the hider. Well, there is on off chance that you don't want to decide yet if you are, but if we are already doing this, as a hider, I think I would rather be interested in having an opportunity to tell people whom I target in case I target scum (like Eevee did).
I was not looking for a hider, I was rereading the thread as I said before.

3) Ok, eHalc thing stands. But you voting Ozle D1 had nothign to do with wagon, he got the bullet mostly due to his badclaim.
And this discussion is pretty much pointless, it won't prove anything useful. It can prove that you are / not good at deciphering wagons, which serves no purpose.

[theorel]

13 - theorel
To me, (I did scimm his posts ost of the time, though) he seems only to do 2 things - theorycraft and tunnel on O. Whenever a theory thing comes up (liek softdeadline), he discuss it in in details. Aside from that I didn't notice much contributions. Also seems to be very chatty about roles, kinda rolefishy, and he made one post D1 (will try to refer it later) where he said it was smart and even encouraged.. ugh.. DOCTOR CLAIM. "As long as it is believed" he said. Really?
How is it good IN ANY WAY? Doc claim is worst claim.

I'll try to keep it short.
It's true I like theory discussions.  It's the most enjoyable part of mafia to me, and I think that a good understanding of theory can benefit town.  Anyways, you skimmed, but, I'm pretty confident that I never encouraged any roleclaims.  I did say that pps' VT claim was terrible because it negatively impacted his ability to roleclaim IF he had a role, hence either he had a role and had hurt town by claiming VT, or he had no role and had hurt town by claiming VT.  This made it so there was no WIFOM on scum. 

But it didn't matter, claiming VT is enough to get you lynched (in spite of the fact that only town has so far early-claimed VT).  Quick-hammering gets you a pass and suspicion on anyone that wants to lynch you, in spite of the fact that only scum has so far quick-hammered (unless someone provides evidence to the contrary).  Anyways, I'll try to stop tunneling so hard, since I didn't like it when Robz/Galzria did it in MVIII (also on O, for being obviously scummy, though one of them was bussing there).

@jo: thank you for correcting me from earlier.  I think your second vote-unvote confused me (this is also the one Robz called out I think)...although Robz still hadn't unvoted at that time.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm gonna work on posting more. It's funny because I spend an awful lot of time reading this game so I tend to feel like I'm participating more than I actually am.

Anyway, I'm really eager to hear what Grujah has to say, and I'd really like to hear from Frisk as well. As far as I remember, Frisk weighed in yesterday with discussion of probability of having various scum combinations, but gave no opinions on recent events which is serious IIoA, which is a useful term I just learned.

To both of them, I'd pose the following questions:
1. How do you feel about the O quickhammer? Does he look like scum or do you buy his defense (that he thought Robz was bussing scum pps)?
2. How does Robz look to you after tunneling town pps?
3. Do you have any suggestions on whom to lynch today?

All right, I'm here now.  As I mentioned in the V/LA thread, had a busy workday.

1. Neutral on the O quickhammer.  I could buy his RobZ bussing scum theory.... seeing as RobZ has in fact recently day 1 bussed his scum buddy.  As for quickhammering, we had been talking for a while, and we got to save some time to roll into a future day.

2. RobZ tunneling PPS doesn't bother me.  Even if we lose this game, I'm perfectly fine with PPS as a day 1 lynch for his anti-town play.

3. Not yet.  As I mentioned previously - which people mistook for IIoA, I think we should be careful about throwing votes around today.

Still trying to see what I think here.

[Captain_Frisk]

@sparky - why did you put the 3rd vote on Grujah?

[Robz888]

Overall I seem to find most people scummy to an extent.

Oh, great! Thanks A LOT.

Still trying to see what I think here.

Keep trying!

Seriously, can we kill them now? If they're going to sit back and watch me/O/Jo/Insomniac go at it, and then not even bother to form stronger opinions based on this... why wait?

[Captain_Frisk]

Overall I seem to find most people scummy to an extent.

Oh, great! Thanks A LOT.

Still trying to see what I think here.

Keep trying!

Seriously, can we kill them now? If they're going to sit back and watch me/O/Jo/Insomniac go at it, and then not even bother to form stronger opinions based on this... why wait?

Whats with all the anger RobZ?

[Robz888]

I'm not angry. But late is the hour in which you choose to basically say a bunch of nothing. Pretty scummy to me.

[theorel]

Alrighty, so not tunneling means I need to actually offer opinions on other players.  Probably considering the possibility that O isn't scum.  So, I'm doing this NOT after a re-read, but I'll try to reread individuals tomorrow if someone seems to merit it.

2 - Robz888: He pushed the pps-thing very strongly.  Also came down on O today, with a side of Cuzz over an incorrect argument which took a couple posts to work out.  Now Grujah for lurking then for his post.  I dunno, after MVIII I'm convinced that I can't read Robz.  I mean that seemed like the MIV Robz, which was town.  I was only able to determine he was scum by POE.  So, disregarding how he "sounds", Day1 he pushed for PPS lynching, which is scummy, but over half the town decided to lynch pps, and they can't all be scum.  I find him townier for his actions there than other players who kind of sat on the lynch for a long time with little content.  Today he seems to be casting around for suspicions...which is generally townie in my POV.  I'll go with  scum_score: 35
 
4 - Captain_Frisk: I agree with others here, but maybe I should read him myself.  I found him scummy day1 for voting pps, and coasting.  Hey look, he's still scummy today...his post warning to be wary of a mislynch is pro-town, but it's the easy kind of pro-town that scum often seem to do. (I certainly do it as scum, since I figure someone's going to point it out, I might as well get town-cred for it).  scum_score: 40


6 - sparky5856: Um, I dunno, he read townie to me early in day1.  Lots of suspicion is being cast here, but I'm not sure I share it.  I should reread him, to see if I believe others, but I'm going with scum_score: 25 pending reread.

7 - jotheonah: Well, I mixed him up with Robz for the early part of today, which gave me more suspicion of him than he merited.  I agree with Grujah that the quick vote-unvote reads very town-joth.  He did push the pps-wagon as sort of a second-wheel to Robz, and the blend of those two makes things tricky.  I don't think their scum-buddies, it's possible one is trying to buddy up to the other.  I'm giving joth a scum-score of 30 for the moment.  I think I should reread him and Robz' interactions though.  atm he reads townier to me than Robz, but only slightly.  scum_score: 33

8 - Insomniac: He reads town to me.  Still "sensitive" about suspicion cast his way (I think I would say he's "aggressively defensive").  He seems like himself, and since he's been town in all the games I've played with him, that seems like town to me.  scum_score: 20

9 - Grujah: yeah, that was some serious lurking.  But at least he came back with content.  If he stays active, that's good.  He's one of the silent pps wagoners though, which was still a scummy thing to do.  scum_score: 35 (could go down or up depending on if he resumes lurking)

10 - Cuzz: As noted, I would have expected joth to die if he was scum, and scum thought I was hider.  But maybe I'm being egotistical.  Another silent pps wagoner (though the least silent of the set).  I did find him suspicious yesterday, and those suspicions haven't just died, but well, there's so many other scummier players.  I expect things to clarify around him moving forward...but I'm not sure for today.  scum_score: 35

Scores may be off by a few points, given that I threw this together rather quickly at bedtime.  I'll have to reread, but I did glance back at the final votes to be sure I had all the "silent voters" right.  While I do find sparky the scummiest of those off-wagon, I think on-wagon is the place to look here.  Although I usually suspect some scum of staying off-wagon, I really don't think any of the non-wagoners was trying super-hard to get town-cred for NOT voting pps (which is the best reason to be there).  Anyways, I've got some reading to do if I get a chance tomorrow.

PPE: looks like Frisk is posting, so his scum_score is likely to change as well.  I'll see tomorrow.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm not angry. But late is the hour in which you choose to basically say a bunch of nothing. Pretty scummy to me.

Have you looked at my post history?  I haven't touched mafia all day.  I even posted something in V/LA to explain why.

[Robz888]

I'm not angry. But late is the hour in which you choose to basically say a bunch of nothing. Pretty scummy to me.

Have you looked at my post history?  I haven't touched mafia all day.  I even posted something in V/LA to explain why.

Sure, but your content is pretty vacant, too. Has been all game.

[Cuzz]

3. Not yet.  As I mentioned previously - which people mistook for IIoA, I think we should be careful about throwing votes around today.

Still trying to see what I think here.

Being careful about throwing votes around is one thing. Being careful of offering any opinions whatsoever is another. Just give us some sample of what you think of the other players.

[Robz888]

I still think I prefer Grujah, I'm just saying.

[jotheonah]

I still prefer O. Or Robz.

[sparky5856]

I still prefer O. Or Robz.

I still think I prefer Grujah, I'm just saying.

And Robz wonders why I haven't posted much? I post content. This is just empty repetition lol.

@sparky - why did you put the 3rd vote on Grujah?

Why not? I usually vote for suspicious behavior. I then voted you to try to get a response (and also I pointed out suspicious behavior with you as well). Speaking of which, UNVOTE for now. Not revoting Grujah cause I need to give a response to his recent activity. Too tired now though.

[Robz888]

I still prefer O. Or Robz.

I still think I prefer Grujah, I'm just saying.

And Robz wonders why I haven't posted much? I post content. This is just empty repetition lol.

@sparky - why did you put the 3rd vote on Grujah?

Why not? I usually vote for suspicious behavior. I then voted you to try to get a response (and also I pointed out suspicious behavior with you as well). Speaking of which, UNVOTE for now. Not revoting Grujah cause I need to give a response to his recent activity. Too tired now though.

Again, why unvote? If all takes to garner an unvote is ANY sort of response, we aren't creating the right incentives.

[jotheonah]

Repetition works. Vote: O

[O]

herro der.

Still town. Still at welcome week at college.
To confirm: Lynching me means you think scum O is so attention-whorish that he would change his stated x 20 times opinion to hammer    PPS for a town lynch, not town O who changed his stated x 20 times opinion that Robz is scum and PPS town to think that Robz is bussing PPS.

[jotheonah]

I still don't get why you hammered. I still can't believe that you really believed it was a bus.

If I can't believe the things you say, it means I think you're lying.

Of course, the only reason scum O ... have we considered that Robz and O are scumbuddies, and O hammered PPS to save Robz? And the epic bus is happening TODAY?

[O]

I still don't get why you hammered. I still can't believe that you really believed it was a bus.

If I can't believe the things you say, it means I think you're lying.

Of course, the only reason scum O ... have we considered that Robz and O are scumbuddies, and O hammered PPS to save Robz? And the epic bus is happening TODAY?

no you choob that was M8, where I picked insomniac over robz then bussed robz hard the next day.

[Grujah]

herro der.

Still town. Still at welcome week at college.
To confirm: Lynching me means you think scum O is so attention-whorish that he would change his stated x 20 times opinion to hammer    PPS for a town lynch, not town O who changed his stated x 20 times opinion that Robz is scum and PPS town to think that Robz is bussing PPS.

O once also said:
"Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully."

Plus, nice change of topic just this last post.

(Also, internet is extra crappy this morning, I am going to get the old one back today, though)

[O]

herro der.

Still town. Still at welcome week at college.
To confirm: Lynching me means you think scum O is so attention-whorish that he would change his stated x 20 times opinion to hammer    PPS for a town lynch, not town O who changed his stated x 20 times opinion that Robz is scum and PPS town to think that Robz is bussing PPS.

O once also said:
"Counter intuitive scumplay wins scum games. Was my meta throughout MVIII and it worked wonderfully."

Plus, nice change of topic just this last post.

(Also, internet is extra crappy this morning, I am going to get the old one back today, though)

>Post in response to joth, didn't change topic
>Counterintuitive scumplay, not batshit crazy scumplay. You're welcome to test though and vote for me, we'll see where that ends up (hint: A robz win and an O/Jotheonah/? loss)

[Grujah]

When you ask so nicely, how can I resist?
Vote: O

[O]

mebbe i shuld self-hammer.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-5

O (3): theorel, jotheonah, Grujah
Robz888 (2): O, Insomniac
Grujah (2): Robz, Cuzz

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Robz888]

mebbe i shuld self-hammer.

Don't.

[Insomniac]

So why did discussion die here, I guess I could talk more was trying to let the quiet ones have a turn but it doesn't seem like that is going to be the case here. O don't self hammer, if you are town like I suspect you are then you're depriving your team of useful information.

Also not really loving Grujah's vote on O, it feels so opportunistic. Hey guys! he asked me to vote for him I can do it now right!


I guess the reason discussion died is that people are on who they think is scummiest and jo just comes in says "still want to have my vote on O" instead of talking, thus we are left waiting for the 2 still lurkers, sparky and CF.

[Cuzz]

Yeah, I was kinda looking forward to hearing more from frisk. I really don't think he looks great here. But I'm still happy with my vote on Grujah for now.

[Robz888]

I respect Jo's reasoning for why O is scum. He really could be right. However, I just can't excuse how scummily lurking Grujah and Frisk have been here. For Grujah, this is hugely in contrast to his usual behavior. What he has posted doesn't seem very acquitting to me, either. So I think he's the best lynch.

I'm not opposed to the O lynch, but I think Grujah is better. Although I am also cognizant of the fact that I had my turn yesterday, and I was wrong, so perhaps we should follow Jo's lead.

[Captain_Frisk]

This game is bugging me.

There are 8 players (I'm obvtown), and 3 or 4 of them are scum.

Grujah's willingness to park a vote on O with no reasoning, and lurking do sound slightly scummy, but something about Cuzz is bugging me, which makes me hesitant to suspect Grujah. 

Grujah was also the magic 3rd vote (apparently the scummiest number) on the PPS wagon (see VC 1-3)

As for not being as active as you'd all like, tough beans.  Life is busy, but I'm far from completely useless.

[Robz888]

I also find Cuzz suspicious, and I was a little dismayed to see him so easily parking a vote on my other main scum suspect, Grujah.

But the one thing I will say about Cuzz is that his behavior here is absolutely in keeping with other games.

You are certainly not obvtown, Frisk.

[Captain_Frisk]

You are certainly not obvtown, Frisk.

I am to myself!

[Robz888]

You are certainly not obvtown, Frisk.

I am to myself!

Oh, yeah. Fine.

[Grujah]

Unvote

Vote was just cuz O provoked.

Now, this seems in response to Frisk's post, but I was going to take it back anyway, as I said, he is one I got mixed feeling about and need to devote more attention, and I find other people more scummy.


Also, got my nets back.

[Grujah]

Actually now reading all comments seems you all took that vote against me, sigh. I was going with O's trollyness.

[Robz888]

But the question is, in the specific case of O, a player we have a lot of previous information about and a long established meta, is irritating behavior a scumtell for him? I'm not sure the answer to that question.

[Grujah]

But the question is, in the specific case of O, a player we have a lot of previous information about and a long established meta, is irritating behavior a scumtell for him? I'm not sure the answer to that question.

It was not a vote that punished bad behavior or was directed at scumminess. It was troll answer to his troll provocation.

As you see, his answer was equally sarcastic.

[Captain_Frisk]

And you don't view putting someone @ L-2 with a trollvote to be slightly scummy?

[Insomniac]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

Captain_Frisk - Lurkin but he's here right now, he is scummyish to me but on the lower side for me.

sparky5856 - Hardcore lurking, comes out only when called out for lurking makes a few big posts and then seems to dissappear again

jotheonah - townish read, I think he's wrong on the O wagon but he's been all over the place on this O lynch, if O flips town I'll have to reevaluate this read.

Grujah - Scummy read, Lurking SUPER SUPER hard has been around but didn't post here has an RL reason. When he does post he has a small fight with O and then votes O when O asks him to as if to be able to say well O asked me to vote him guys. My second highest scumspect.

Cuzz - Also scummy he hasn't been lurking nor active, his posts while they have content haven't stood out for me which is where scum like to be the most. Supposedly this is how he played in MX where he was town though.

O - town read, hammered PPS because 'he thought robz was bussing his scum buddy', the reasoning O provided is too half ass for scum O. Scum O would have just ignored the question, laughed at it, or posted a real argument. Probably scum O would have avoided the predicament all together by a)not hammering and b)not quick hammering

theorel - Neutral here, he does like to theory discuss is a bit on the quiet side when he's not giving his list (like these ones), I tend to think theorel is scum though beause of his play style so I just bumped him up to neutral.

[jotheonah]

Grujah looks a lot scummier after that little exchange with O, actually.

[Robz888]

You know, there's another way in which the lurkers are being scummy--our fixed time limit. Lurking slows things down and eats up our time. This didn't really occur to me until now, but do you think the scum team might have said, "If we lurk more than we would, it will slow the town down from making decisions and perhaps run them out of time."? It's sure possible.

[Insomniac]

It really shouldn't be that hard to get conversation going in here right now the big time sink game is in night phase.

[Cuzz]

It really shouldn't be that hard to get conversation going in here right now the big time sink game is in night phase.

You'd think so...

Anyway, I'm still not feeling the Robz wagon (not that any wagon is really off the ground here). I'm town and I've agreed with most of his positions this game (other than when he calls me scum), even the supposedly scummish ones like the pps wagon D1. I also somehow get a sense that he truly doesn't know that I'm town (like when he voted and unvoted me based on a mistake). There are of course SK edgecases to consider, but I find others much more likely to be scum.

Those others: Grujah, Frisk, and O. I'd probably be ok with lynching any of them unless something major develops, but Grujah is still my pick for now. Also I'm still getting a bit of a bad vibe from Insomniac to some extent. Not sure if my suspicions of him got overlooked, but no one else has commented on them and I'm curious of what others think. Link to the post is below.

[Insomniac]

I'll respond because hey why not. I don't think my defence of PPS was that strong, but he claimed VT, mafia have much better things to do with their time then claim VT. I've watched a bunch of claims and he seemed sincere, I bought his claim and thought it was stupid to policy lynch him on the basis of claiming VT. Therefore I tried to get people to get off the scumminess of PPS because if he was scum we could come back to him later.

[theorel]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

[jotheonah]

theorel, my hero.

[O]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

so many terrible arguments. Yes, i'm not yet lynched but the argument is still completely valid that quickhammering like that makes me 4x as likely to get lynched.

"if he's town, he shouldn't have quickhammered".

Nope. I stand by quickhammers as a fine and useful tool for town.

You're either Robz scummate or a delusional theorel whose mad that he didn't quite catch me MVIII in my mind. Joth is just delusional and not a scummate. IDK about grujah, sparky, cuzz. Insomniac town.

[jotheonah]

True to form, O believes if he says something enough times with enough conviction he can make it true.

[Insomniac]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

Twas a stream of conciousness post, I didn't go back to see what it would mean if it were the case although it's good to know only O fits the bill vote wise. As I was typing up my thoughts on Robz it popped up into my head as a possibility so I said it. If we do lynch Robz and he flips scum it'll definitely be useful to know who started pushing PPS. Also it will force me to reconsider my stance on O if everyone is alive when that happens, and if O and Robz are teammates there is some super epic bussing going on D2.

[Grujah]

Grujah looks a lot scummier after that little exchange with O, actually.

Only cuz I don't have O's meta. If O have done the same thing, he would get a pass. Meh.


Kinda drunk, don't wanna rush anything now, though I wanna keep an eye out for Cuzz.

[Grujah]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

Scimmed, but you are tunneling O again.

[Robz888]

Grujah looks a lot scummier after that little exchange with O, actually.

Only cuz I don't have O's meta. If O have done the same thing, he would get a pass. Meh.


Kinda drunk, don't wanna rush anything now, though I wanna keep an eye out for Cuzz.

Grujah, are you town? Tell us right now. WHy are you behaving so differently this game? You're scum, right?

[jotheonah]

O worked hard on that meta. I respect mafia players who don't just play this game, they play the next ten games. It's a whole different level of play.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-6

O (2): theorel, jotheonah
Robz888 (2): O, Insomniac
Grujah (2): Robz, Cuzz

Not voting {3}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856, Grujah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

so many terrible arguments. Yes, i'm not yet lynched but the argument is still completely valid that quickhammering like that makes me 4x as likely to get lynched.

"if he's town, he shouldn't have quickhammered".

Nope. I stand by quickhammers as a fine and useful tool for town.

You're either Robz scummate or a delusional theorel whose mad that he didn't quite catch me MVIII in my mind. Joth is just delusional and not a scummate. IDK about grujah, sparky, cuzz. Insomniac town.

If quickhammering is a "useful tool for town" then it must have some positive utility.  If it is a tool with purely negative utility, then it's not actually a "useful" tool, it's a harmful tool.  Can town do it?  Yes, but only if they're trying to lose the game.  Much like a cop sitting around not investigating, is it an option? yes.  Is it helpful? NO, it's actively harmful.

If you can provide one pro-town reason for quick-hammering then I'll consider that maybe, just maybe, you actually did it because you found it "useful for town".  So far, you have only offered reasons for hammering pps.  I've already pointed out why I disagree with that reasoning, but it's not sufficient disagreement for me to find you lynch-worthy (it's not worse than many other people's Day1 reasoning, so it just puts you even with many of them).  However, you have offered 0 reason for quick-hammering pps, which is the thing that really stands out.

[Cuzz]

I agree with theorel here. Quickhammering is making a unilateral decision on behalf of the town, having blind faith in your reads over anyone else's, and silencing anyone who might have had more to say on the subject, thereby limiting content to analyze on D2. The only time I can imagine a protown reason for this is if you have an investigative confirmation of scum.

For me this is more of an issue of principle, since I was on the wagon and thought pps was our best lynch D1, but I just don't like O's behavior at the end, or his explanation/defense that it was pro-town.

[Cuzz]

Also what do people think about middle of next week for a deadline? I think we need to accelerate things a bit with the way deadlines work here.

[Robz888]

Also what do people think about middle of next week for a deadline? I think we need to accelerate things a bit with the way deadlines work here.

I would prefer to have this decided MUCH sooner than that. I would think we could come to a consensus before the weekend is over at least. Possibly in the next two days.

[O]

My thoughts. (ordered by intro post)

Robz888 - Still my number one scum candidate. He pushed the PPS lynch super hard and was wrong. Completely tunneled all day 1 on PPS which left us in the situation we are in now. His wagon has been very slow to take off and only briefly did on day 1 and when it did start to gain ground PPS was lynched instead possibly because his scum team decided to save him.

This one I'm curious about.  How do you think Robz' scum-team decided to save him?  I mean I can see it as an idea, but in practice it needs people to make it work.  So, the question of whether it holds up, I think can be born out by seeing if anyone can fill that role.

If we're looking for votes: timeline-wise we had the pps wagon v. the Robz wagon.  Both sitting at 3.
I push Robz to 4, joth votes pps, pps votes Robz, Robz votes pps. I unvote.  sparky votes Robz.  They both sit at 5 for a bit, and then cayvie (town) votes pps, and then O quick-hammers.  To me, the only person who could fit that idea here is O, and I don't disagree with it as an idea.  O tired of trying to bus decided to super-scummily end the day, and get on with things...it seems plausible enough to me.

If you think that Robz' scum-team provided sufficient argument to get cayvie to vote (also O, since you think he's town), that's plausible.  I'd have to look back and see who was pushing for the lynch.  Anyways, if Robz is in fact scum, this would be valuable evidence for finding scum-mates.

Re: O, I really find it hard to believe that town-O would quick-hammer.  I don't see what's actually unbelievable about scum-O quick-hammering.  Obviously he thought he could get away with it.  And obviously he is getting away with it.  So, I'm going to need a better explanation than scum-O wouldn't do it.  Why wouldn't he do it?  And it needs to be a better explanation than "he'd get lynched" because, well, he's not getting lynched...so the argument doesn't hold up. 

I don't support the view that O can be further anti-town than anyone before offer BAD explanations and that somehow makes him townier.  Nope, I'm not buying it.  If he's town, he shouldn't have quick-hammered.  He should have known not to quick-hammer.  And after doing so, he should have a better argument then, "well I thought it was a bus, and figured that I needed to be the hammer vote on it with no communication, because hey, that's how I roll."  I don't object to his decision to lynch pps, (and his argument for doing so) I object to him doing it 2 hours after he reached L-1 in the middle of the night with only 2 other players being around without a good reason for doing it RIGHT THEN.

so many terrible arguments. Yes, i'm not yet lynched but the argument is still completely valid that quickhammering like that makes me 4x as likely to get lynched.

"if he's town, he shouldn't have quickhammered".

Nope. I stand by quickhammers as a fine and useful tool for town.

You're either Robz scummate or a delusional theorel whose mad that he didn't quite catch me MVIII in my mind. Joth is just delusional and not a scummate. IDK about grujah, sparky, cuzz. Insomniac town.

If quickhammering is a "useful tool for town" then it must have some positive utility.  If it is a tool with purely negative utility, then it's not actually a "useful" tool, it's a harmful tool.  Can town do it?  Yes, but only if they're trying to lose the game.  Much like a cop sitting around not investigating, is it an option? yes.  Is it helpful? NO, it's actively harmful.

If you can provide one pro-town reason for quick-hammering then I'll consider that maybe, just maybe, you actually did it because you found it "useful for town".  So far, you have only offered reasons for hammering pps.  I've already pointed out why I disagree with that reasoning, but it's not sufficient disagreement for me to find you lynch-worthy (it's not worse than many other people's Day1 reasoning, so it just puts you even with many of them).  However, you have offered 0 reason for quick-hammering pps, which is the thing that really stands out.

quickhammering every so often establishes that scum cannot do certain things nearly as reliably as they could if we waited forever before every lynch.

[Robz888]

quickhammering every so often establishes that scum cannot do certain things nearly as reliably as they could if we waited forever before every lynch.

I don't think this explanation makes any sense at all.

[O]

quickhammering every so often establishes that scum cannot do certain things nearly as reliably as they could if we waited forever before every lynch.

I don't think this explanation makes any sense at all.

That odds that you would say any explanation I made makes any sense at all are about 5%.

Dangers of quick-hammers prevent scum from being able to, say, run up a scummate to L-1 or something for manipulative effects, or run up townmates to l-1 to get claims while never actually being on a wagon that hammered a townie.

[Robz888]

Here's where I stand: MY suspects, in order, from most to least. ALso, why am I the only one playing this game?

Grujah -- This is still my preferred lynch, because he as been far more quiet here than in previous games where he was town, such as MVI and MIX. He was a very helpful townie there, and here is nothing. He's barely present. Hardcore lurking is scummy, and it's extra scummy here because it will run out our clock.

Cuzz -- I can't put my finger on it, I just suspect him. I'm not even sure why. His opinions mostly line up with mine. Actually--that's why. Usually I feel like it's much harder to convince people I'm right (when I'm town, at least), and Cuzz is right there saying things I think make sense. I hate "buddying" as a scumtell and if I were in Cuzz's position I would be furious to be suspected due to agreement. Still, I can't shake the feeling. Other than that, he has an exactly middling number of points, a sort of hedgy moderate approach--I don't know. He's classically scummy, but I don't know if it matters here.

O -- I do respect Jo and theorel's opinions, they are smart people, and I don't disagree with them about O. His play was irrational and anti-town, and his explanations worse. But this is sort of a modus operandi for O, whether town or scum. I don't want to reward O for being crazy unhelpful O--it's like a more sinister version of the Morgrim insanity defense--but that doesn't necessarily make it untrue. If this were Day 1 I would say lynch him and be done with it, but we are perilously closer to a loss now.

Frisk -- Similar to the case on Grujah, but a little weaker, because Frisk is often on the lower side of posting, and always scum. I am less sure of how town Frisk would behave. Still, he's not exactly behaving a lot differently from his scum meta, so yeah.

sparky -- I don't like how much he's lurking, but he's still sort of a newbie. Also, I was mafia with him in his only other game, MIX, so it's harder for me to evaluate him. He was transparently scummy to me in that game.

Insomniac, Jotheonah, theorel -- If a Serial Killer exists, it's probably one of these people, who are all engaged in productive and pro-town scumhunting. But for the time being, nothing about them has set me off, and they are contributing and providing useful arguments, and especially if Jo and theorel are right about O, basically any chance of one of them being mafia evaporates (not Insomniac, but still). COuld be a Serial Killer here, though. Although as I've said, I'm fairly confident (probably 80% confident) there's no Serial Killer.

So I still want a Grujah lynch, but I suppose an O lynch would be fairly informational.

[O]

Actually, we could lynch me today, lose as town and completely destroy the "lynch anti-town-behavior people" meta as it failed so hard D1 and D2.

[Robz888]

Actually, we could lynch me today, lose as town and completely destroy the "lynch anti-town-behavior people" meta as it failed so hard D1 and D2.

O, what do you think about Grujah?

[O]

Also, productive and pro-town scumhunting is not actually tunneling one person 100%, especially tunnelling a townie 100%. Your blatant falsehoods do very well to continue to convince me of your scumminess.

The case against me:
I quickhammered PPS



my allegedly poor defense of myself

The case for me:
Grujah's bizarre vote on me
The fact that I got 3 votes in 4 posts, and then Robz fervently tried to convince everybody that quickwagons were OK and protown (but quickhammers are terrible and scummy)
The opinion that my play has just about 0 benefits if I'm scum (unless I'm somehow trying the "be so goddamn crazy that you'll spend all your time being at L-1 but never actually being lynched" strategy... which I don't actually do as scum).
The intense tunnelling that has been on me by about 3 people, which is quite eerily similar to the intense tunneling that was on PPS....

OH CRAP THEY'RE BUSSING ME
OH CRAP I'M SCUM
...but nope. I'd be happy to throw all my attempts at explaining why this was not a double-bus like in MVIII after we lynch scumrobz.



PPE: Grujah's behavior seems very similar to Joth's behavior, except I don't know as much about Grujah's behavior so it's slightly more likely that he's scum in my mind. Still below you.

[jotheonah]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

[jotheonah]

Whereas O is going for the classic bus instead.

[O]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

Me and Robz are both qualified enough to not do the same thing as a scumteam from a game that ended like two weeks ago as a scumteam here. Robz is qualified enough to make it really freaking look that way so that he drags me down with him.

So sure Joth, i'm bussing robz. Then freaking vote for him.

[Robz888]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

Or maybe it's a Jotheonah-Grujah team.

[Robz888]

O, are you as certain that I am scum as you were on Day 1 of MX, when you told the town you were positive I was scum--and I wasn't? Or are you more certain than completely certain this time?

[O]

Less certain given Joth's recent revelations.

[Robz888]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

How does it discourage us from lynching O? If anything, I thought I was providing good reasons to lynch O, despite the fact I have at least two higher scum suspects.

[Robz888]

Less certain given Joth's recent revelations.

I THINK Jo is just misguided. I can see why he thinks what he thinks. He's wrong though, as you know.

[jotheonah]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

How does it discourage us from lynching O? If anything, I thought I was providing good reasons to lynch O, despite the fact I have at least two higher scum suspects.

You're trying to steer us to your other suspects.

O, the fact that you want me to switch to Robz is enough reason for me not to do it right now.

I'm not positive my theory is right, but I KNOW I'm being played right now, and I'm certain one or both of you is playing me.

[Robz888]

Guys, it's a Robz-O scumteam. Look at how Robz's latest post DISCOURAGES us from lynching O while still putting him in a position to say "Hey I was right, good job team!" when O flips scum. It is a classic hedge.

I don't care which of them we lynch today, but we gotta lynch one of them.

How does it discourage us from lynching O? If anything, I thought I was providing good reasons to lynch O, despite the fact I have at least two higher scum suspects.

You're trying to steer us to your other suspects.

O, the fact that you want me to switch to Robz is enough reason for me not to do it right now.

I'm not positive my theory is right, but I KNOW I'm being played right now, and I'm certain one or both of you is playing me.

I'm not playing you, I'm increasingly (and quite recently) convinced O is not playing you, and I don't think your scum.

[Robz888]

I really think we should lynch Grujah or Cuzz, people.

[jotheonah]

And I really think we have to lynch Robz and O.

Insomniac, everybody here seems to trust you for some reason, what do you got?

[Grujah]

Vote: Cuzz
Re-read him, so maybe tunneling but I did this cuz he seemed most scummy and under-radarish.
Said basically nothing of value except latest few posts in D2 (one with question for Frisk and me and few after that). D1 He talks about how theo's lists are nice (also SOMEHOW seeing that theo doesn't lie at all anywhere there, though in truth it he was maybe refering to massive IIoA), how Robz's might have changed play from previous game, and otherwise in general truths that do not brign anything new and info with little analasys.

Aside from that, I hate his first post the mroe I think about it. He says he is considering voting on PPS and putting him on L-2, than says he wont and makes that awful "Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps."
What is he trying to do there? To try and catch next voter and than pounce on him, giving this as backup? To give advice to his scumbuddies? How does this help town? This fails as scumhunting technique, if he was going to "ambush" like that, you don't announce it.

Oh, I also liked the "Maybe I'm always under-radarish". Wow. 

Answer that I didn't do:
1. I am torn on O
2. I do not consider Robz's tunneling D1 bad, I gave what I though of robz in megapost. His PPS thing was reasonable.3
3. You


PPE:  8 new replays, Whoah.

[Cuzz]

And I really think we have to lynch Robz and O.

Insomniac, everybody here seems to trust you for some reason, what do you got?

Not me!

[Grujah]

Cuzz -- I can't put my finger on it, I just suspect him. I'm not even sure why. His opinions mostly line up with mine. Actually--that's why. Usually I feel like it's much harder to convince people I'm right (when I'm town, at least), and Cuzz is right there saying things I think make sense. I hate "buddying" as a scumtell and if I were in Cuzz's position I would be furious to be suspected due to agreement. Still, I can't shake the feeling. Other than that, he has an exactly middling number of points, a sort of hedgy moderate approach--I don't know. He's classically scummy, but I don't know if it matters here.

I noticed this too, he is kinda "too nice", Insomniac is too, to an extent, except that Ins has beef with some people. Cuz didn't really go onto anybody and also he like.. agrees, passivly defend by "explaining" stuff for people (at least one for you, like "maybe that why he changed, doesn't want to lynch town again" D1) and giving "thumbs up" for good behavior.

[Robz888]

Cuzz -- I can't put my finger on it, I just suspect him. I'm not even sure why. His opinions mostly line up with mine. Actually--that's why. Usually I feel like it's much harder to convince people I'm right (when I'm town, at least), and Cuzz is right there saying things I think make sense. I hate "buddying" as a scumtell and if I were in Cuzz's position I would be furious to be suspected due to agreement. Still, I can't shake the feeling. Other than that, he has an exactly middling number of points, a sort of hedgy moderate approach--I don't know. He's classically scummy, but I don't know if it matters here.

I noticed this too, he is kinda "too nice", Insomniac is too, to an extent, except that Ins has beef with some people. Cuz didn't really go onto anybody and also he like.. agrees, passivly defend by "explaining" stuff for people (at least one for you, like "maybe that why he changed, doesn't want to lynch town again" D1) and giving "thumbs up" for good behavior.

Yeah, exactly! Where have you been Grujah? This is the stuff I've been waiting for. Coming now, it just looks like you are trying to squash my scumread on your lurkiness.

[Insomniac]

And I really think we have to lynch Robz and O.

Insomniac, everybody here seems to trust you for some reason, what do you got?

Not everyone trusts me Cuzz seems to be the only one that doesn't though. As I've said I'm ok with a Robz lynch although his recent posts have seemed more town to me, I guess I'm having a hard time changing my opinion here because it's just like he sits at a low number of votes forever. Grujah is who I would switch to if a soft deadline came up and we needed a lynch, I won't vote for O unless he says "herp derp I'm scum!" (obviously I mean he has a scum slip).

I think we need a real soft deadline, and it probably does need to be sooner rather than later because maybe it will draw the lurkers out and they are eating our time pretty harsh right now.

We haven't heard much from CF today and I think theorel and sparky have been on the low side today as well.

[jotheonah]

I just ... I don't understand where this town read on O is coming from. It looks to me like he's just doing his "repeat myself until people believe me" brainwash thing.

It was very enlightening to watch him do that from a Mod's Eye view in M-IX. He's really good at it. He can do really scummy things and then get people to dismiss them after the fact through sheer rhetoric.

[Insomniac]

I have a town read on O because too many people are tunneling on him to be scum without super epic bussing. And yea O can do scummy things and get away with it, but I don't think scum O would EVER attempt to quick hammer a townie, its just soo bad like even with my town read on O it's still completely possible that O will be lynched and he had to know that was a possibility.

[Cuzz]

Vote: Cuzz
Re-read him, so maybe tunneling but I did this cuz he seemed most scummy and under-radarish.
Said basically nothing of value except latest few posts in D2 (one with question for Frisk and me and few after that). D1 He talks about how theo's lists are nice (also SOMEHOW seeing that theo doesn't lie at all anywhere there, though in truth it he was maybe refering to massive IIoA), how Robz's might have changed play from previous game, and otherwise in general truths that do not brign anything new and info with little analasys.

Aside from that, I hate his first post the mroe I think about it. He says he is considering voting on PPS and putting him on L-2, than says he wont and makes that awful "Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps."
What is he trying to do there? To try and catch next voter and than pounce on him, giving this as backup? To give advice to his scumbuddies? How does this help town? This fails as scumhunting technique, if he was going to "ambush" like that, you don't announce it.

Oh, I also liked the "Maybe I'm always under-radarish". Wow. 

Answer that I didn't do:
1. I am torn on O
2. I do not consider Robz's tunneling D1 bad, I gave what I though of robz in megapost. His PPS thing was reasonable.3
3. You


PPE:  8 new replays, Whoah.

Regarding that early post D1, I see your point, and I will concede that it might have been bad town play. I'm still new at this and appreciate the constructive criticism  (oops! now I'm being too nice! scumtell!)

In terms of being generally under-radarish, I'm not sure what to tell you. I get accused of lurking, and when I try to up my post rate, I get accused of being "middling." Well, I'm just not gonna be Robz or joth in terms of post volume, sorry. As others have mentioned, I got the same guff in MX when I was VT, so it seems this is just my style, unintentional though it may be. It does also seem though that some people have predecided that I'm skating by without posting any content to the point where they don't notice when I do make more substantial posts. Anyway, if you want to see what I'm like as scum, read BMV. My posts were utterly useless to town in that game.

[Robz888]

Regarding that early post D1, I see your point, and I will concede that it might have been bad town play. I'm still new at this and appreciate the constructive criticism  (oops! now I'm being too nice! scumtell!)

In terms of being generally under-radarish, I'm not sure what to tell you. I get accused of lurking, and when I try to up my post rate, I get accused of being "middling." Well, I'm just not gonna be Robz or joth in terms of post volume, sorry. As others have mentioned, I got the same guff in MX when I was VT, so it seems this is just my style, unintentional though it may be. It does also seem though that some people have predecided that I'm skating by without posting any content to the point where they don't notice when I do make more substantial posts. Anyway, if you want to see what I'm like as scum, read BMV. My posts were utterly useless to town in that game.

Insomniac, Jotheonah, O: Tell me if you disagree, but doesn't this paragraph fit the exact model of a scum post from a new-ish player that I laid out back in MI-II-III?

Vote: Cuzz

[jotheonah]

See? Robz contends that O might be scum, but relentlessly pushes any other target.

Vote: Robz888

Happy, O?

[O]

See? Robz contends that O might be scum, but relentlessly pushes any other target.

Vote: Robz888

Happy, O?

sort of.

[Robz888]

See? Robz contends that O might be scum, but relentlessly pushes any other target.

Vote: Robz888

Happy, O?

Jo, I'm not relentless pushing any other contender, I was the first person to call for a wagon against O today, I scolded you for your cowardly unvote of him, but jeez, I'm just not persuaded this his behavior makes him scummy. It's scummy, it's anti-town, it's irrational... but we are too late in the game for the punishing of bad behavior, and the fact of the matter is that this is quite in keeping with O as either town or scum. I don't get why this turns into an indictment of me for thinking this. Insomniac gets it.

[Robz888]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

[yuma]

Vote Count 2-7

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (3): O, Insomniac, jotheonah
Grujah (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (2): Grujah, Robz

Not voting {2}: Captain_Frisk, sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Grujah]

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

[Insomniac]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

It does match the one you laid out, but from what I've heard this is how Cuzz played MX as town. I do find it scummy, just not enough that I think he is where I want my vote today.

[Captain_Frisk]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

Real posts to come this evening - but I agree with this approach.

[Grujah]

Vote: Cuzz
Re-read him, so maybe tunneling but I did this cuz he seemed most scummy and under-radarish.
Said basically nothing of value except latest few posts in D2 (one with question for Frisk and me and few after that). D1 He talks about how theo's lists are nice (also SOMEHOW seeing that theo doesn't lie at all anywhere there, though in truth it he was maybe refering to massive IIoA), how Robz's might have changed play from previous game, and otherwise in general truths that do not brign anything new and info with little analasys.

Aside from that, I hate his first post the mroe I think about it. He says he is considering voting on PPS and putting him on L-2, than says he wont and makes that awful "Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps."
What is he trying to do there? To try and catch next voter and than pounce on him, giving this as backup? To give advice to his scumbuddies? How does this help town? This fails as scumhunting technique, if he was going to "ambush" like that, you don't announce it.

Oh, I also liked the "Maybe I'm always under-radarish". Wow. 

Answer that I didn't do:
1. I am torn on O
2. I do not consider Robz's tunneling D1 bad, I gave what I though of robz in megapost. His PPS thing was reasonable.3
3. You


PPE:  8 new replays, Whoah.

Regarding that early post D1, I see your point, and I will concede that it might have been bad town play. I'm still new at this and appreciate the constructive criticism  (oops! now I'm being too nice! scumtell!)

In terms of being generally under-radarish, I'm not sure what to tell you. I get accused of lurking, and when I try to up my post rate, I get accused of being "middling." Well, I'm just not gonna be Robz or joth in terms of post volume, sorry. As others have mentioned, I got the same guff in MX when I was VT, so it seems this is just my style, unintentional though it may be. It does also seem though that some people have predecided that I'm skating by without posting any content to the point where they don't notice when I do make more substantial posts. Anyway, if you want to see what I'm like as scum, read BMV. My posts were utterly useless to town in that game.

You, toy are saying that your meta is "being useless for town, generally"?

Sigh.

[Grujah]

Also, you said liked theo's "few words on everyone" posts, and you also said you encourage other do to it.

Why not do one yourself?

It would be of some help at least, so step towards improving your meta.

[jotheonah]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

Real posts to come this evening - but I agree with this approach.

Once I find scum, I stop looking.

[Cuzz]

Vote: Cuzz
Re-read him, so maybe tunneling but I did this cuz he seemed most scummy and under-radarish.
Said basically nothing of value except latest few posts in D2 (one with question for Frisk and me and few after that). D1 He talks about how theo's lists are nice (also SOMEHOW seeing that theo doesn't lie at all anywhere there, though in truth it he was maybe refering to massive IIoA), how Robz's might have changed play from previous game, and otherwise in general truths that do not brign anything new and info with little analasys.

Aside from that, I hate his first post the mroe I think about it. He says he is considering voting on PPS and putting him on L-2, than says he wont and makes that awful "Also, wagons often get accelerated by scum, so I'd watch out for anyone too keen to pounce on pps."
What is he trying to do there? To try and catch next voter and than pounce on him, giving this as backup? To give advice to his scumbuddies? How does this help town? This fails as scumhunting technique, if he was going to "ambush" like that, you don't announce it.

Oh, I also liked the "Maybe I'm always under-radarish". Wow. 

Answer that I didn't do:
1. I am torn on O
2. I do not consider Robz's tunneling D1 bad, I gave what I though of robz in megapost. His PPS thing was reasonable.3
3. You


PPE:  8 new replays, Whoah.

Regarding that early post D1, I see your point, and I will concede that it might have been bad town play. I'm still new at this and appreciate the constructive criticism  (oops! now I'm being too nice! scumtell!)

In terms of being generally under-radarish, I'm not sure what to tell you. I get accused of lurking, and when I try to up my post rate, I get accused of being "middling." Well, I'm just not gonna be Robz or joth in terms of post volume, sorry. As others have mentioned, I got the same guff in MX when I was VT, so it seems this is just my style, unintentional though it may be. It does also seem though that some people have predecided that I'm skating by without posting any content to the point where they don't notice when I do make more substantial posts. Anyway, if you want to see what I'm like as scum, read BMV. My posts were utterly useless to town in that game.

You, toy are saying that your meta is "being useless for town, generally"?

Sigh.

That really wasn't the point, no. Besides, I'm useful for town in that I am town. Lynching me will result in one fewer townie and potentially no fewer scum tomorrow, and it'll be pretty damn hard for town to win.

This back and forth is kinda pointless though, since you guys are certainly not gonna convince me that my role PM was wrong. I'll come back later with some input on other players as you suggest, but I'm kinda ticked that you keep cherrypicking my comments and ignoring the ones in which I already have given analysis of other players. 

[Cuzz]

And this coming from someone who was silent for half the freakin game is particularly irritating.

[Cuzz]

Also, yuma, I should have 2 votes on me, no?

[Cuzz]

And Robz, can you give me a quote or a summary of the scum newbie post you think I so clearly emulated? (how's this for artificially upping my post count?)

[yuma]

Also, yuma, I should have 2 votes on me, no?

fixed

[Insomniac]

I just wanna give a heads up that I'm going to be pretty absent this weekend (RtR prerelease) so how do people feel about an October 1st or 2nd soft deadline?

[Robz888]

And Robz, can you give me a quote or a summary of the scum newbie post you think I so clearly emulated? (how's this for artificially upping my post count?)

Read Eevee's posts on Day 1 in this game: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2660.0;all

[Cuzz]

And Robz, can you give me a quote or a summary of the scum newbie post you think I so clearly emulated? (how's this for artificially upping my post count?)

Read Eevee's posts on Day 1 in this game: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2660.0;all

This game is like a hilarious yet fascinating time capsule...

[Cuzz]

I just wanna give a heads up that I'm going to be pretty absent this weekend (RtR prerelease) so how do people feel about an October 1st or 2nd soft deadline?

This sounds good to me.

[Robz888]

I guess that's fine. I would rather figure this out, uh, now.

[Robz888]

I do think Cuzz or Grujah are the lynch we want if we want to get scum. I think killing O will reveal a townie, and cast suspicion on me (who I know to be town) and Jo (who I suspect to be town).

[Robz888]

But there is just not enough talking going on. I need to hear from sparky and from theorel. It looks like I'm not convincing Jo.

[Insomniac]

I guess that's fine. I would rather figure this out, uh, now.

I would too I just think we need a softdeadline that is earlier rather than later, and realistically I'm gonna be busy all weekend.

[Cuzz]

My breakdown for now:


Robz888:

Still slight townread. I like that he's trying to move the game along and really get people talking. Most prolific poster of the game. I also have some kind of reverse OMGUS in that his suspicions/votes on me feel like genuine scumhunting, not like scum pushing a lynch on someone they know to be town. Like Insomniac, he's getting a townread on O that I still don't get. I mostly agree with his arguments against Grujah. Less so his arguments against me  .

Captain_Frisk:

Lurking and somehow managing to avoid major suspicion because of it. Major FoS. Frisk likes to post votecounts himself. Well he's had 26 all game. I posed him a series of questions to get some analysis out of him and he essentially answered "neutral" to them all. Claims that he'll make real posts tonight so we'll see.

sparky5856:

Hasn't posted in almost 2 full days. Another Fos. 22 posts all game, 9 on D2 (though I don't like to put so much weight on pure # of posts, this stands out). Tried catching an "obvious" Robz/jotheonah scumteam early on D2. This comment caught my eye:

I'll be calling out specifics in a future post, but first I have to reread the thread. It probably will not be pretty. >_< (forgive me for my different tone, but after Night 1 and what has happened so far today, I'm not too happy; I'm being more overcautious than ever.)

Seems trying a bit too hard to be upset about the 3 dead townies overnight. Also claims he'll reread and give specifics later, which he never really does. Said sort of the same thing in most recent post:

I still prefer O. Or Robz.

I still think I prefer Grujah, I'm just saying.

And Robz wonders why I haven't posted much? I post content. This is just empty repetition lol.

@sparky - why did you put the 3rd vote on Grujah?

Why not? I usually vote for suspicious behavior. I then voted you to try to get a response (and also I pointed out suspicious behavior with you as well). Speaking of which, UNVOTE for now. Not revoting Grujah cause I need to give a response to his recent activity. Too tired now though.

Re: the "I post content" bit, somewhat true on D1, not so much on D2.


jotheonah:

Had been tunneling O, which I don't blame him for. Currently thinks he's caught a Robz/O scumteam, and voting Robz. Town read for me.


Insomniac:

Still slightly scummy to me. Has been vaguely pushing a Robz wagon since D1. Has defended both pps and O for crazy anti-town behavior. In terms of post content/volume I really think Insomniac is doing everything that people keep accusing me of. Has posted just slightly more than I have, but doesn't seem to have tons of conviction in his posts.

Grujah:

Obvscum. No, but seriously I put my vote on Grujah at the height of his lurking. Now he's more active, but somewhat tunneling me, which, in contrast to Robz, doesn't feel like genuine scumhunting. It feels like he's latched onto a post of mine D1 which he called "superscummy," (which I maintain was just less-than-ideal townplay on my part), and is then trying to paint me as having been generally useless. I feel like he just think's I'm an easy target, and maybe wants to convince town that I won't really be missed even when I do flip town. Also, did I mention how hard he was lurking before people started voting for him?


Cuzz:

Obvtown  .


O:

Major crazy play at the end of D1. Too much WIFOM, doesn't seem to make much sense as town or as scum. Really don't buy the "quickhammering can be pro-town" argument as I mentioned earlier. The "I thought Robz was bussing pps hard D1" defense seems weak also. Lots of people are defending O based on the "crazy O meta," which I can't claim to have seen much of firsthand so not sure what to think. Still quite suspicious of him.


theorel:

Liked his arguments against O earlier today. Brought up hider discussion D1, which looks less good considering it seems that scum sought out the hider to get 2 townie kills last night. Has seemed mostly helpful to town this game, but a little quiet lately, so somewhere between neutral and town read for me.

[Insomniac]

Insomniac:

Still slightly scummy to me. Has been vaguely pushing a Robz wagon since D1. Has defended both pps and O for crazy anti-town behavior. In terms of post content/volume I really think Insomniac is doing everything that people keep accusing me of. Has posted just slightly more than I have, but doesn't seem to have tons of conviction in his posts.

That is a bold accusation, I have been arguing with people and making cases for lynching people you just come in and regurgitate what other people have said and change in the fact that you think I'm scummy. I have defended neither PPS nor O for anti-town behaviour. I don't support lynching anti-town behaviour I support lynching mafia. The old mafia saying that is constantly repeated is "Lynch mafia not scum" and it seems like some of the people in this game have completely forgotten about that saying.

Was PPS's claim anti-town? Absolutely did that make him mafia? Oh no he flipped town
Was O quickhammering anti-town? Again no doubt it was, does it make him mafia? No, he could be mafia playing me but I have a town read on him. Generally scum doesn't get to L-2 in 3 posts, that is normally a town trait.

Question to those that say O is mafia, do you have any case on him besides the fact that he quick hammered? Make a case for me that says O is mafia without using the quickhammer. Use analysis of who died and how people wagoned yesterday.

[jotheonah]

Generally scum doesn't get to L-2 in 3 posts, that is normally a town trait.

This is such a lame argument! Scum can certainly have wagons that build on them quickly when they do really scummy things!

[Insomniac]

Generally scum doesn't get to L-2 in 3 posts, that is normally a town trait.

This is such a lame argument! Scum can certainly have wagons that build on them quickly when they do really scummy things!

I said normally, obviously there are exceptions. The thing is that wagon could easily have turned into a hammer and then the day would have been over and then the wagoners are just as guilty as the crime they accuse O of.

[theorel]

Insomniac:

Still slightly scummy to me. Has been vaguely pushing a Robz wagon since D1. Has defended both pps and O for crazy anti-town behavior. In terms of post content/volume I really think Insomniac is doing everything that people keep accusing me of. Has posted just slightly more than I have, but doesn't seem to have tons of conviction in his posts.

That is a bold accusation, I have been arguing with people and making cases for lynching people you just come in and regurgitate what other people have said and change in the fact that you think I'm scummy. I have defended neither PPS nor O for anti-town behaviour. I don't support lynching anti-town behaviour I support lynching mafia. The old mafia saying that is constantly repeated is "Lynch mafia not scum" and it seems like some of the people in this game have completely forgotten about that saying.

Was PPS's claim anti-town? Absolutely did that make him mafia? Oh no he flipped town
Was O quickhammering anti-town? Again no doubt it was, does it make him mafia? No, he could be mafia playing me but I have a town read on him. Generally scum doesn't get to L-2 in 3 posts, that is normally a town trait.

Question to those that say O is mafia, do you have any case on him besides the fact that he quick hammered? Make a case for me that says O is mafia without using the quickhammer. Use analysis of who died and how people wagoned yesterday.

Alright, I'm going try to reread (I've been in another implementing things I know how to do instead of spend time thinking about them at work, that tends to drop my post count.  Also having only one strong scum-read and having to devote mental energy into actually looking at someone else is making it hard to want to get on and reread people and try to find scum when I really have trouble imagining a world where this O is town).

Anyways, before I do that, here's my case on O sans quick-hammer.
What have O's pro-town contributions been to this game?  I'll wait...

Okay, so here's a summary of what I've seen from O...I would like to be corrected if I'm wrong.  I am probably allowing bias to enter into it.
Day1: Robz is scum because he's pushing for pps lynch.  (please correct me if there's another reason here).  But in the end he decides that scum-Robz WOULDN'T push the lynch that obviously UNLESS pps was also scum.  His conclusion: pps MUST CLEARLY be scum, so hammer him.
Day2: ah, pps was town.  Well, I really thought that scum-Robz wouldn't be so obvious, I guess I was wrong and scum-Robz would be that obvious.
After again pushing for Robz lynch all day, he finally seems to start reconsidering his position.

Also, if the wagon turned into a hammer, that would require again someone saying: herp, derp hammering without discussion is GOOD.  I can't see anyone other than O doing that, although maybe he would have just self-hammered.  Might as well be as anti-town as possible (assuming he's town there).

[theorel]

Oh, oops, I deleted a line there.  I was going to say that actually reconsidering his position is a pro-town thing in my view.  Whether Robz is scum or not, tunneling him without good reasoning is anti-town because it doesn't help the town to lynch him, just helps yourself validate your "reads".  Hopefully there will be some actual arguments coming from O at some point, though I kind of doubt it, since that would be really pro-town a position O seems incapable of taking.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right, just did a full re-read (took about an hour).  Scum are playing a great game.  I re-read day 1 and was totally thinking that eevee was scum, and every time I read PPS I wanted to lynch him again.

Time to skim user by user, but right now my gut says that I don't like Joth and Cuzz.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Joth
Vote: Jtotheonah

(to make sure that people can Control-F it either way)

Every time you get accused, the OMGUS reaction takes over, whether you like to admit it or not.  He's been very careful to not rile up suspicion on anyone today other than O.  Actively not wanting to discuss other candidates also seems slightly scummy.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Cuzz

He's been "active" day 2 - but has pushed no real suspicion (see previous post), and his only "vote" was with a clear out for the accused

Vote: Grujah. Say something and give me a townread and I'll unvote.

And call me naive but am I the only one who thinks Robz is town? (cue Robz and hid scumbuddies laughing as I say this)

[Captain_Frisk]

I'd like to see more from sparky.

[Captain_Frisk]

For those who don't like the O quick-hammer, is it the hammering without warning for discussion (you wanted him to announce intent to hammer?) that bugs you, or for hammering well in advance of deadline?

This question is mostly for theorel.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-8

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (3): O, Insomniac, jotheonah
Grujah (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (3): Grujah, Robz888, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

Vote: Cuzz

He's been "active" day 2 - but has pushed no real suspicion (see previous post), and his only "vote" was with a clear out for the accused

Vote: Grujah. Say something and give me a townread and I'll unvote.

And call me naive but am I the only one who thinks Robz is town? (cue Robz and hid scumbuddies laughing as I say this)

Frisk did you even read my wall of text on the previous page? I put suspicion on you, sparky, grujah (with additional justification that was not given in my original vote above), and insomniac. I'm getting sick of people not actually reading any of my posts and dismissing all of my contributions. And most I this comes from you and grujah, the biggest lurkers in the game.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Cuzz

He's been "active" day 2 - but has pushed no real suspicion (see previous post), and his only "vote" was with a clear out for the accused

Vote: Grujah. Say something and give me a townread and I'll unvote.

And call me naive but am I the only one who thinks Robz is town? (cue Robz and hid scumbuddies laughing as I say this)

Frisk did you even read my wall of text on the previous page? I put suspicion on you, sparky, grujah (with additional justification that was not given in my original vote above), and insomniac. I'm getting sick of people not actually reading any of my posts and dismissing all of my contributions. And most I this comes from you and grujah, the biggest lurkers in the game.

I did.  Your vote on Grujah was with a "please come talk to us", and sure - you FOS'd me, for lurking.  I can't really get mad about that, right?

[jotheonah]

Vote: Joth
Vote: Jtotheonah

(to make sure that people can Control-F it either way)

Every time you get accused, the OMGUS reaction takes over, whether you like to admit it or not.  He's been very careful to not rile up suspicion on anyone today other than O.  Actively not wanting to discuss other candidates also seems slightly scummy.

No, sorry. From my perspective, I've caught scum. But I can't lynch them, because everyone is so dead-set on "exploring other options." Which for me, reads "scrutinizing town players even though we've already caught scum." I just have no particular desire to do that. Let's lynch Robz or O. And then, if I'm wrong and they flip town, you can lynch me. Or we can actually try to find the real scum.

But here's what I don't want to happen (and what Robz and O want to happen): I set aside my crusade and embrace the spirit of "other options". We find some sort of far-fetched, brilliant case on, for instance, Cuzz. The case against O and Robz gets forgotten. We lynch this other poor bastard. I die in the night. The town goes about day 3 completely forgetting my wagons.

On F.DS, wagons end in one of two ways: With a lynch, or with town getting distracted and lynching someone else. I have no interest in the latter when I've found the scum team.

[Robz888]

Vote: Joth
Vote: Jtotheonah

(to make sure that people can Control-F it either way)

Every time you get accused, the OMGUS reaction takes over, whether you like to admit it or not.  He's been very careful to not rile up suspicion on anyone today other than O.  Actively not wanting to discuss other candidates also seems slightly scummy.

No, sorry. From my perspective, I've caught scum. But I can't lynch them, because everyone is so dead-set on "exploring other options." Which for me, reads "scrutinizing town players even though we've already caught scum." I just have no particular desire to do that. Let's lynch Robz or O. And then, if I'm wrong and they flip town, you can lynch me. Or we can actually try to find the real scum.

But here's what I don't want to happen (and what Robz and O want to happen): I set aside my crusade and embrace the spirit of "other options". We find some sort of far-fetched, brilliant case on, for instance, Cuzz. The case against O and Robz gets forgotten. We lynch this other poor bastard. I die in the night. The town goes about day 3 completely forgetting my wagons.

On F.DS, wagons end in one of two ways: With a lynch, or with town getting distracted and lynching someone else. I have no interest in the latter when I've found the scum team.

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? First of all, I would like to policy lynch you for doing the age old, "If I'm wrong, lynch me." That's just such a stupid and false level of confidence to have about anything. But anyway, I don't want the town to lynch you after you mislynch me or O, because I don't think you're scum. But you're sure not acting in the town's best interest. Consequently, your credibility is rapidly atrophying, so whatever.

I'm pretty sure Grujah or Cuzz are the best lynches. I am hopefully that we lynch scum, though far from certain of it, in either case.

[jotheonah]

I beg to differ. Confidence in your reads and perseverance is pro-town! Here's why:

Scum already knows who's town and who's scum. So they can relentlessly argue whatever they want to argue and never back down.

Now suppose we say that town "should never be that sure." Well then anytime town and scum get into a fight, town will back down first. And then scum won't get lynched.

That's what's happening here. You and O are trying to get me to back down. But it ain't happening.

[Robz888]

I beg to differ. Confidence in your reads and perseverance is pro-town! Here's why:

Scum already knows who's town and who's scum. So they can relentlessly argue whatever they want to argue and never back down.

Now suppose we say that town "should never be that sure." Well then anytime town and scum get into a fight, town will back down first. And then scum won't get lynched.

That's what's happening here. You and O are trying to get me to back down. But it ain't happening.

Over-the-top confidence is NOT pro-town! Because when you are inevitably wrong (as you will be if I am lynched, and probably if O is lynched) you will look like an idiot, no one will ever listen to you, in fact they may thik you are scum, because your opinion was ridiculously wrong. Look at Timchen in MVII, or O in MX.

[jotheonah]

Look, if you really want to change my mind, convince me I'm wrong, instead of trying to get me to turn away from a good wagon (one that happens to be on you) merely in the name of open-mindedness.

[Robz888]

Look, if you really want to change my mind, convince me I'm wrong, instead of trying to get me to turn away from a good wagon (one that happens to be on you) merely in the name of open-mindedness.

I have been trying to convince you your wrong for pages and pages and pages!!!!!!!!!!! It's not merely in the name of open-mindedness. I support zeroing in on someone when you think you've found scum, I just don't support saying your sure unless you're really sure, unless you're willing to put your reputation on the line. Are you willing to do that, Jo?

Since you haven't been paying attention any of the dozen times when I have made my cases, here they are AGAIN (but truly this is ridiculous, I have said these same things a hundred times).

O -- His behavior is in keeping with both his town and scum metas from previous games. His behavior strikes me as just a bit too reckless for him to be scum. Scum O is a calculating strategizer--I know this from my scum discussions with him in MVIII. Town O is just a bit more fast and loose--like his ridiculous case against me in MX Day 1, which is similar to your stupid confidence here, Jo. Bad play is worthy of lynch for me, but not at this stage in the game. O could be scum, but weighing all of the evidence, I find Grujah or Cuzz to be more likely. Again, here's why.

Grujah has lurked hardcore, only coming out to defend himself when he was in jeopardy. Town Grujah has been an increasinlgy active and useful town player in MVI, and MIX, so this lurkiness goes against the grain for him.

With Cuzz, it's more of a feeling. He is very agreeable with me, which I don't usually think is a scumtell, but since no one else seems to agree with me, perhaps it is. He's very hedging and middling, with an average number of posts, and he doesn't take sides too big. He doesn't do anything dangerous. But hes' always around. Reminds me of myself in my earlier days as scum.

Jo I do not think is mafia. But I do wish he would listen.

[jotheonah]

O could be scum, but weighing all of the evidence, I find Grujah or Cuzz to be more likely. Again, here's why.

...

With Cuzz, it's more of a feeling. He is very agreeable with me, which I don't usually think is a scumtell, but since no one else seems to agree with me, perhaps it is. He's very hedging and middling, with an average number of posts, and he doesn't take sides too big. He doesn't do anything dangerous. But hes' always around. Reminds me of myself in my earlier days as scum.

oh yeah, this case is definitely scummier than O's quickhammer on town.

except, oh wait no, this is an incredibly weak case admittedly based on a feeling, whereas the case on O is based on actual obvious behavior.

I have read your cases on Gru and Cuzz, Robz. They're just not impressive. They're no remotely on the level with the obvious scum that the end of Day 1 points to.

[jotheonah]

Insomniac, you say O looks town because 3 votes landed on him in a hurry.

So what do you have to say about how HARD it's been to lynch him since then?

[Insomniac]

Insomniac, you say O looks town because 3 votes landed on him in a hurry.

So what do you have to say about how HARD it's been to lynch him since then?

It's in line with how hard it was to drive the PPS wagon and the Robz wagon. Except O has the O defence while Robz doesn't.

[theorel]

For those who don't like the O quick-hammer, is it the hammering without warning for discussion (you wanted him to announce intent to hammer?) that bugs you, or for hammering well in advance of deadline?

This question is mostly for theorel.

Pretty sure I've covered this before.  It was the quick-hammer.  Not the fact it was well in advance of deadline.

But really I don't think he needed to warn/announce intent...it has more to do with the fact that it went from L-2 to lynch in 2 hours.  That's what makes it a quick-hammer.  We went from 2 viable lynch-candidates and lots of discussion (including considering different directions) to a lynch.  I think there would have been REALLY VALUABLE information if pps had sat at L-1 for maybe like 12-16 hours, even if the hammer wasn't announced.  But since no one had the opportunity to talk about pps emerging as the clear lynch choice, we don't really know how most of the town felt about it once it was clear.  I mean, just look at O's change-of-behavior, deciding that it was a bus.  Did anyone else feel similarly?  Did anyone think cayvie was scummy for putting it at L-1?  Did anyone want to legitimately consider other lynch options than pps and Robz?  WE DON'T KNOW.  This severe denial of information is harmful to town, it's why scum can actually help their team sometimes by self-hammering.  They deny town information.  A quick-hammer by its very nature denies town information.

Anyways, I really think this was a calculated move by O.  I think he recognized the value of information, and went with it, figuring the benefit of ending the day on a town-lynch outweighed the potential that he would get lynched.  I think he counted on his scummy meta to protect him.  IF he is in fact town, I think it was a calculated move to increase his scummy meta.

[Cuzz]

Volt can we get a prod on sparky?.

I'm tempted to switch my vote to him, but don't really want to punish people if real life things come up.


Oh, and Vote: Grujah, Vote: Grujah, Vote: Grujah. Frisk is correct in that I phrased my original vote in a "come talk to us" kind of way, but I only said I'd unvote if I got a townread from what he said. I didn't, and I haven't. Grujah was silent for 2 days, and I'm taking others' words for it that he's much more active and helpful when he's town. He then comes in trying to push a weak case on me mostly based on a post D1 that I've explained and no one else seems to have a problem with. That and me being active but "under the radar" which is apparently now worse than lurking. Call this OMGUS is you must (though I voted him first, my case now is somewhat based on his vote on me) but I find scummy voting behavior scummy, even if the votes are on me.

I guarantee these two things: I am town, and there is scum on my wagon right now.

[Cuzz]

@ Robz,
You find me and Grujah most suspicious. You admit that your case on Grujah is based on evidence and your case on me is based on a "feeling." Of the two of us, then, why is your vote on me? I'm at L-2 right now, with up to 4 scum left in the game. Are you really that much more certain that I'm scum than Grujah?

[Captain_Frisk]

This is really starting to read like me when I was fingered in any of my scum games without a super solid case.

[Cuzz]

This is really starting to read like me when I was fingered in any of my scum games without a super solid case.

That is fascinating. Guys did you know that apparently the way Frisk acts as scum is similar to the way I act as town?

[Captain_Frisk]

This is really starting to read like me when I was fingered in any of my scum games without a super solid case.

That is fascinating. Guys did you know that apparently the way Frisk acts as scum is similar to the way I act as town?

And now a little snark!

[Robz888]

Okay, I give up trying to convince Jotheonah, and recognize I'm not going to get Insomniac, or probably Theorel.

But if Grujah, Frisk, O, and sparky are on board for the Cuzz lynch with me, it can still happen. Sparky, O--where are you guys? Can you be persuaded to go Cuzz?

[Insomniac]

Okay, I give up trying to convince Jotheonah, and recognize I'm not going to get Insomniac, or probably Theorel.

But if Grujah, Frisk, O, and sparky are on board for the Cuzz lynch with me, it can still happen. Sparky, O--where are you guys? Can you be persuaded to go Cuzz?

I can still be moved, Cuzz has been more and more scummy in the last little bit here. He has been rapidly coming up my suspicion list with the way he has responded to the minimal amount of suspicion he got. That said I don't like that it's a feeling case from those involved as opposed to a hard evidence case.

[Robz888]

Okay, I give up trying to convince Jotheonah, and recognize I'm not going to get Insomniac, or probably Theorel.

But if Grujah, Frisk, O, and sparky are on board for the Cuzz lynch with me, it can still happen. Sparky, O--where are you guys? Can you be persuaded to go Cuzz?

I can still be moved, Cuzz has been more and more scummy in the last little bit here. He has been rapidly coming up my suspicion list with the way he has responded to the minimal amount of suspicion he got. That said I don't like that it's a feeling case from those involved as opposed to a hard evidence case.

I think I'm mis-stating it as a feelings case. It's an evidence case, the evidence is just, uh... circumstantial, I guess? Cuzz has a straight in-the-middle level of posts. His tone is mostly pleasant (a bit snarky now), not too memorable, not too forgettable. He's quicker with the humor than I remember him being. Basically, he fits my old model for scummy behavior from a new-ish person (he's not totally new, but not yet a veteran either). I know that I've said hedging is a scumtell, and then later denounced that as something I said when I was scum in order to cast suspicion on my enemies. Well, I was also scum when I said that, so ha! In reality, I do think a new-ish person's scum reaction is to be hedging. I don't really count hedging too much against a veteran, it's just the natural result of becoming numb to our odds of ever lynching mafia. But if Cuzz were mafia, well... I would see him being like this.

So it's more than a feeling, but it's short of hard evidence, yes.

[Cuzz]

Okay, I give up trying to convince Jotheonah, and recognize I'm not going to get Insomniac, or probably Theorel.

But if Grujah, Frisk, O, and sparky are on board for the Cuzz lynch with me, it can still happen. Sparky, O--where are you guys? Can you be persuaded to go Cuzz?

I can still be moved, Cuzz has been more and more scummy in the last little bit here. He has been rapidly coming up my suspicion list with the way he has responded to the minimal amount of suspicion he got. That said I don't like that it's a feeling case from those involved as opposed to a hard evidence case.

Dude, I'm at L-2. Not sure how that qualifies as minimal. And just out of curiosity, what's seemed scummy to you? Is it the snark? If snark were a scumtell, O would be dead by now, right?

Next game I play I'm really gonna try the sparky/Frisk/Grujah route and post next to nothing because illusions of a Lynch all Lurkers meta aside, no one is seriously considering it right now.

In reality, I do think a new-ish person's scum reaction is to be hedging. I don't really count hedging too much against a veteran, it's just the natural result of becoming numb to our odds of ever lynching mafia. But if Cuzz were mafia, well... I would see him being like this.

So it's more than a feeling, but it's short of hard evidence, yes.

I don't really get this. If I'm hedging, it's because I'm town and honestly don't know anyone's alignment but my own.

[Robz888]

Next game I play I'm really gonna try the sparky/Frisk/Grujah route and post next to nothing because illusions of a Lynch all Lurkers meta aside, no one is seriously considering it right now.

Two things. One, you're right, the lurking is inexcusable, and if this were Day 1, I would absolutely support the lynching of the biggest lurker. And in fact, Grujah's lurking has made him my second biggest suspect, formerly my first biggest suspect.

But two, "next game I play I'm really gonna try the [lurking]" reads to me like a light scumconfession. This sounds to me like you're frustratedly saying "If I lurked I would have gotten away with it!"

I understand the frustration, and I too hate the lurking--I've been calling everyone out for it, and have posted twice as much as my nearest competitor--but I can't ignore your scumminess right now.

[Cuzz]

Next game I play I'm really gonna try the sparky/Frisk/Grujah route and post next to nothing because illusions of a Lynch all Lurkers meta aside, no one is seriously considering it right now.

Two things. One, you're right, the lurking is inexcusable, and if this were Day 1, I would absolutely support the lynching of the biggest lurker. And in fact, Grujah's lurking has made him my second biggest suspect, formerly my first biggest suspect.

But two, "next game I play I'm really gonna try the [lurking]" reads to me like a light scumconfession. This sounds to me like you're frustratedly saying "If I lurked I would have gotten away with it!"

I understand the frustration, and I too hate the lurking--I've been calling everyone out for it, and have posted twice as much as my nearest competitor--but I can't ignore your scumminess right now.

I totally see what you mean, but that's not what I was implying, though of course you won't believe me. But try to see that what I said could just refer to me not wanting to be lynched as town. No one wants to get lynched. It's obviously slightly more important for an individual scum member not to be lynched than it is for an individual townie, but still I don't want us to lynch someone who to me is a confirmed townie (i.e. me).

[Captain_Frisk]

Next game I play I'm really gonna try the sparky/Frisk/Grujah route and post next to nothing because illusions of a Lynch all Lurkers meta aside, no one is seriously considering it right now.

Two things. One, you're right, the lurking is inexcusable, and if this were Day 1, I would absolutely support the lynching of the biggest lurker. And in fact, Grujah's lurking has made him my second biggest suspect, formerly my first biggest suspect.

But two, "next game I play I'm really gonna try the [lurking]" reads to me like a light scumconfession. This sounds to me like you're frustratedly saying "If I lurked I would have gotten away with it!"

I understand the frustration, and I too hate the lurking--I've been calling everyone out for it, and have posted twice as much as my nearest competitor--but I can't ignore your scumminess right now.

I think i said this very thing in M8 when my mega post got me lynched.

[Voltgloss]

Volt can we get a prod on sparky?

Prod sent.

[Insomniac]

Next game I play I'm really gonna try the sparky/Frisk/Grujah route and post next to nothing because illusions of a Lynch all Lurkers meta aside, no one is seriously considering it right now.

Two things. One, you're right, the lurking is inexcusable, and if this were Day 1, I would absolutely support the lynching of the biggest lurker. And in fact, Grujah's lurking has made him my second biggest suspect, formerly my first biggest suspect.

But two, "next game I play I'm really gonna try the [lurking]" reads to me like a light scumconfession. This sounds to me like you're frustratedly saying "If I lurked I would have gotten away with it!"

I understand the frustration, and I too hate the lurking--I've been calling everyone out for it, and have posted twice as much as my nearest competitor--but I can't ignore your scumminess right now.

I think i said this very thing in M8 when my mega post got me lynched.

You did...

Vote: Cuzz

That is L-1 people, this day has gone for a while so I don't mind putting Cuzz at L-1 with how he's been reacting lately, but let's not end the day prematurely.

[Robz888]

If someone hammers Cuzz before he gets a chance to at least claim, the hammerer should be killed indiscriminately tomorrow. Nobody screw up, here. No excuses.

[Cuzz]

This is a mistake guys. This is bad for town. Do not forget there is a chance we're at MyLo here.

[Cuzz]

If you are town, get off the wagon. You'll be suspected when I flip town and we can't afford another mislynch tomorrow.

[Robz888]

We need your claim, Cuzz.

[Robz888]

Are you not claiming because you're trying to think one up?

[Cuzz]

Why do you need my claim now? No one has expressed willingness to hammer yet.

[Insomniac]

Why do you need my claim now? No one has expressed willingness to hammer yet.

Briefly overlooked your games, when I saw you were never lynched I figured I'd answer this you claim at L-1 so that it's at least somewhat believable, O could just come in here and hammer and then it wouldn't matter if you claimed or not.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-9

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (2): O, jotheonah
Grujah (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (4): Grujah, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

If someone hammers Cuzz before he gets a chance to at least claim, the hammerer should be killed indiscriminately tomorrow. Nobody screw up, here. No excuses.

Should be, but won't be.

[Captain_Frisk]

If someone hammers Cuzz before he gets a chance to at least claim, the hammerer should be killed indiscriminately tomorrow. Nobody screw up, here. No excuses.

Should be, but won't be.

I really don't like anyone who demands a required action in the future that may or may not be appropriate based on the flip and / or night action results.

[Robz888]

If someone hammers Cuzz before he gets a chance to at least claim, the hammerer should be killed indiscriminately tomorrow. Nobody screw up, here. No excuses.

Should be, but won't be.

I really don't like anyone who demands a required action in the future that may or may not be appropriate based on the flip and / or night action results.

I was just trying to communicate how important it is not to do that, especially if Cuzz isn't going to claim until someone expresses intent to hammer.

[Captain_Frisk]

Somehow I doubt this would stop O, especially after Cuzz stuck his middle finger up at us regarding claiming.

[Cuzz]

Not a "middle finger" dude, just busy. Between classes now so no time for long post. But I wanted to see if there was any chance someone might invite before I claim doc.

[jotheonah]

If someone hammers Cuzz before he gets a chance to at least claim, the hammerer should be killed indiscriminately tomorrow. Nobody screw up, here. No excuses.

Should be, but won't be.

I really don't like anyone who demands a required action in the future that may or may not be appropriate based on the flip and / or night action results.

I shouldn't have to spell this out, but I was commenting on the absurdity of Robz demanding something be done tomorrow despite that the town has refused to do exactly the same thing today.

[jotheonah]

inB4 it's not exactly the same because PPS had already claimed.

[Captain_Frisk]

Not a "middle finger" dude, just busy. Between classes now so no time for long post. But I wanted to see if there was any chance someone might invite before I claim doc.

Any breadcrumbs?  Who did you protect and why?

[Robz888]

Not a "middle finger" dude, just busy. Between classes now so no time for long post. But I wanted to see if there was any chance someone might invite before I claim doc.

Oh, woah. I read this over and didn't even realize you said this. Who did you protect last night? Tell us immediately.

[Robz888]

Any other doctors out there? We can only have 1.

[Captain_Frisk]

Any other doctors out there? We can only have 1.

Not true: go read.

[Captain_Frisk]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B#Protection_Roles

It is possible that there could be as many as 3 doctors.

[Captain_Frisk]

Are you rolefishing?

[Robz888]

Any other doctors out there? We can only have 1.

Not true: go read.

Oh Lord, you're right. Sorry! I assumed there could only be 1. And really... it would be nutty to have two doctors. They could just protect each other forever.

[Robz888]

We do need to know who you protected though, Cuzz.

[Insomniac]

I'm finding this doctor claim hard to believe especially with how easy a claim it is to fake as scum and the delay in claiming, the delay in claiming targets etc.

[Insomniac]

I still want to unvote for now though as Cuzz is offline.

[Robz888]

I'm finding this doctor claim hard to believe especially with how easy a claim it is to fake as scum and the delay in claiming, the delay in claiming targets etc.

I think so too, but I wanted to wait for him to explain himself before speculating about that.

[jotheonah]

I have to admit, I'm even starting to think Cuzz looks like a caught scum. Which means I have to eat a lot of crow, possibly.

[Robz888]

I have to admit, I'm even starting to think Cuzz looks like a caught scum. Which means I have to eat a lot of crow, possibly.

If he does turn out to be scum, we will be in really good shape. Setting aside Serial Killer concerns for a moment, I think a scum Cuzz flip would essentially acquit Frisk and Insomniac, pivotal voters who made the Cuzz wagon the dominant one. It will be harder to see Grujah as scum, though not impossible since I was putting a lot of pressure on him and Cuzz might have been trying to bus him before I switched my vote. I'm sure I wouldn't be acquitted in any one's view, since this is exactly the kind of craziness I would be capable of if I were Cuzz's scummate.

But anyway, I will think it likely that there must be some scum not voting Cuzz, possibly in the theorel/sparky department. Jo does read town to me still. O-Cuzz is not at all impossible.

[Robz888]

Regarding the claim--which he really needs to explain more fully--Doctor is of course the first choice of fake roleclaims.

[jotheonah]

My O case is a lot weaker if you're not scum though, Robz. Because the only possible reason for his quickhammer I can think of was to save you, which he would only do if you were his teammate.

[jotheonah]

Regarding the claim--which he really needs to explain more fully--Doctor is of course the first choice of fake roleclaims.

Better than cop, which lets you mess with the town? Better than vig?

[Captain_Frisk]

Regarding the claim--which he really needs to explain more fully--Doctor is of course the first choice of fake roleclaims.

Better than cop, which lets you mess with the town? Better than vig?

Has nobody read the setup?

[Robz888]

My O case is a lot weaker if you're not scum though, Robz. Because the only possible reason for his quickhammer I can think of was to save you, which he would only do if you were his teammate.

I did not need saving, nor would O have tried to save me if we were scum partners.

[Insomniac]

Regarding the claim--which he really needs to explain more fully--Doctor is of course the first choice of fake roleclaims.

Better than cop, which lets you mess with the town? Better than vig?

Has nobody read the setup?

I've read it.

@Jo Even if there could be a cop it's better than doctor and vig.

Reasons claiming cop is bad: If you live through the night people will be super suspicious and the longer you live the more you'll be expected to out a team member. If you ever report false information your dead.

Reasons claiming vig is bad: It's easily provable if you actually have a kill, you will be expected to direct it, and there could be a serial killer and vig is the go to claim of an SK.

[Cuzz]

Back guys. I was stalling because I was very wishful in thinking I might be able to avoid having to claim and potentially survive the night, but decided that was too much to hope for. I also didn't realize that others thought it was so imperative to claim the second I got to L-1. Frisk was there for like 2 whole rl days in MX before his fake cop claim. Thanks for the unvote anyway, Insom.

N1 I protected my best town read, which was of course Eevee. We all see how that turned out (and I was debating between him and cayvie of course...). No major breadcrumbing but a few mild ones:

Targeting a hider in any regard is ineffective.

This was on my mind at the time, of course, because I had been confused as to how Eevee could have died, so I double-checked the rules carefully.

Along the same lines (emphasis added):

You're so good at knowing what the scum were thinking, Cuzz.

Dude, theorel came up with this first (below), as I said. I wouldn't have caught it on my own (and I certainly didn't pick up on Eevee being the hider; I thought maybe it was theorel for broaching the subject in the first place).

I know it's nothing too convincing, but it's all I've got. I was also under the impression that doc's were supposed to play semi-scummy to avoid the NK, which explains some of my behavior, but I clearly went too far for it to come to this.

Major FoS on anyone on my wagon who does not believe my claim. There is scum among this crowd, I assure you.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why did you have a town read on Eevee?

[Cuzz]

Why did you have a town read on Eevee?

Mostly his reaction to the O hammer. Seemed genuine to me. Also the level-headed avoidance of the pps wagon to some degree.

Oh wait thats the hammer!!

Oh O WHAT U DOING BUDDY?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm just surprised, because eevee was a major scum read to me... just waiting for an "I Told You So" on the pps lynch. 

I suppose he played the same way in M7 though, defending me from lynch day 1.

[Robz888]

Here's the one that acquits you even more, I think. (Emphasis added)

Two of the people who died were seriously voting for Sparky last night.

I don't think this means too much. Eevee only died because someone tried to kill ashersky (in all likelihood), and the ashersky/cayvie kills couldn't have come from the same faction.

Speaking of which...

Also, I don't think this confirms SK, but makes it far more likely.

Ashersky was a Vig, so it's possible he offed her last night. But cayvie seemed pretty town to me so idk why she would have been the NK choice for a Vig.

So, yeah, you clearly express a better and earlier understanding of why Eevee died than the rest of us do, which now makes sense.

[Robz888]

Unvote

[Robz888]

I was really prepared to disbelieve this claim, but your entire tone at the beginning of today very much fits you being the Doctor. I think you would have had to say those things with the clear mindset of planning to be Doctor, which is practically impossible, because it sounds perfectly natural right after Day 2 begins. You barely have any time to react to the kills, and you're reacting the way the doctor clearly would.

Bah. I think it's convincing, right? Go back and look at him at the beginning of Day 2. His reaction is exactly the reaction of a Doctor who tried to save Eevee and is working out why Eevee is dead.

[Insomniac]

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

[Captain_Frisk]

So RobZ, do you believe Cuzz that there is scum on the wagon? 

[Robz888]

So RobZ, do you believe Cuzz that there is scum on the wagon? 

Probably, yes. I am going back to Vote: Grujah

[Captain_Frisk]

@RobZ - what are your thoughts on Insomniac?

[Robz888]

@RobZ - what are your thoughts on Insomniac?

I haven't focused on Insomniac as much as I should. I think I had vague feelings earlier that he was town... but I have no particular reason to think that, and have stopped assuming it. If Cuzz was scum, you and Insomniac were going to be big time clear to me, but he's clearly not, so that's out the window. What are your thoughts?

[Captain_Frisk]

Insomniac, you've been pretty friendly this game, whats different between this game and M-VIII?

[Insomniac]

Insomniac, you've been pretty friendly this game, whats different between this game and M-VIII?

I don't think I've been more friendly this game but I've had a lot less suspicion this game and we all know how I laser in on people that suspect me. Additionally I was called a jerk for my actions in ZM2 and M8.

[Captain_Frisk]

So if I voted for you for behaving differently than how you behaved as town in M8, you might get angry again?

[Insomniac]

So if I voted for you for behaving differently than how you behaved as town in M8, you might get angry again?

I don't get angry I wasn't angry in M8, I was defending myself, I don't think I'm acting any different so I can't really defend myself from that accusation.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-10

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (3): O, jotheonah, Insomniac
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Robz888
Cuzz (2): Grujah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

[Robz888]

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

Jo, you're doing it wrong. You're supposed to continue to insist I am obvscum, so mafia don't kill me. Thanks a lot.

[Insomniac]

Vote Count 2-10

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (3): O, jotheonah, Insomniac
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Robz888
Cuzz (2): Grujah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

Frisk why are you still voting for Cuzz?

[jotheonah]

Actually, Unvote.

I'm going to check out this Grujah case I guess.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah was my #2.... but i'm reluctant to use the "lurker" argument, because sometimes you're just busy... and it compounds... the longer behind you get, the harder it is to post....

Vote: Grujah

Let's keep this moving people.

[Insomniac]

Grujah was my #2 too, and this game stalls if no one plays Vote: Grujah

[Captain_Frisk]

And now we wait.

That's L-1 Correct?

[Robz888]

And now we wait.

That's L-1 Correct?

Yep. Claim time.

[Captain_Frisk]

Where are theorel and sparky?

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - i'll be golfing and going to Maker Faire NY this weekend, so limited posting during the days.

[Insomniac]

Where are theorel and sparky?

I saw theorel lurking the thread earlier.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-11

O (1): theorel
Robz888 (1): O
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac
Cuzz (1): Grujah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, jotheonah

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Also - i'll be golfing and going to Maker Faire NY this weekend, so limited posting during the days.

Whhuuuut I'm going to Maker Faire.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - i'll be golfing and going to Maker Faire NY this weekend, so limited posting during the days.

Whhuuuut I'm going to Maker Faire.

Is glooble coming too?

[jotheonah]

Nah, he lives elsewhere.

[Captain_Frisk]

Also - i'll be golfing and going to Maker Faire NY this weekend, so limited posting during the days.

Whhuuuut I'm going to Maker Faire.

Well that's just crazy
I'll pm you my number
So call me maybe?

[Grujah]

Whoah, 3 pages. I am readying for sleep, I am crashing at friend's home, and was bussy most of the day. Wont be here for Saturdays (RTR) and possibly sunday.

Sorry. 

[Insomniac]

Whoah, 3 pages. I am readying for sleep, I am crashing at friend's home, and was bussy most of the day. Wont be here for Saturdays (RTR) and possibly sunday.

Sorry. 

You have to claim you are at l-1

[Grujah]

And now we wait.

That's L-1 Correct?

Yep. Claim time.

Ugh, I've just seen this.
I've already said that I HATE forced claims.
I was about to write another '"I won't claim" post like I've done in another game, but that doesn't seem to work here, so, hell, and I know that I've called this stupid, but

I claim a Doctor.

I've breadcrumbed this. In my first in-game post, first sentence references "stupid claim" - by which I meant ehunt's Doctor claim in MIX (I've called it stupid claim repediately). Next sentence talks about PPS's oppening post in MVI - that is a post where he crumbed Doctor in MVI (he confirmed this in aftergame chat).

N1 I protected Insomniac as he wasn't scummy and is prone to dying N1.

Slightly intoxicated.

[jotheonah]

damn town is lousy with doctors.

[Grujah]

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.

[Cuzz]

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.

[Robz888]

Oh god. Another double doctor dilemma. I out for a while, but Gurkha I think I likely a liar maybe? I will have to re read. They might both be telling the truth but that seems unlikely to me.

[theorel]

Where are theorel and sparky?

I saw theorel lurking the thread earlier.

Yes, I've been trying to keep up.  Alright, stream-of-consciousness incoming.

I feel a little lost for the moment....let's see:
Insomniac doesn't seem different at all to me.  I think he reads town for that reason, not because he's been nicer or anything (as at least Frisk has suggested).  To clarify (although I said differently day1) I don't actually think Insomniac is snarky, he's just aggressively defensive.  He seems to always be ready to accuse anyone who accuses him.  His arguments are bad, or made up, but the way they come so readily really makes him seem scummy (to me), like he's a constant source of OMGUS.  When no one suspects him, he seems much better at really considering various options and making good analysis.  I hope he can maintain that if he comes under real suspicion.

In this game, I think his responses to suspicion have been as aggressive as ever, but he's not taking major suspicion.  Probably because he didn't lynch pps.  As long as I think O is scum, I don't see it as necessary that any of the non-pps voters are scum.  IF O is actually somehow town, then it's possible that sparky and Insomniac are both town, but I can see them being scum in that case.  Actually, I would probably be suspicious of Insomniac who may have hoped to get town-cred and throw major suspicion on O's wagon if he flipped town, and if he believed O's wagon would go through without support.  I feel like it's a better explanation than the mysterious town-read, but whatever, I feel like I'm playing a different game than everyone else, which is normally how I feel.

Anyways, those are my random thoughts of the moment.
Let's see, the pps wagon was composed of:
Robz, joth, Frisk, Cuzz, Grujah, cayvie, and O.
Cuzz is doc (seems reasonable enough)
cayvie's dead.
I think there is at least one scum among O, Insomniac, and sparky (with O being the major top-choice for me there)
Then there should be 2 scum among: Robz, joth, Grujah, and Frisk. (Assuming Cuzz is in fact doc, we're guaranteed 3 mafia.  So, I'm supposing there is only one scum among O, Insom and sparky)

Well, there are only so many combos there.
Robz seems town, because he seems to be playing a generally pro-town game.  He's also much more driving discussion (as compared to scum-Robz in MVIII, could be to throw us off, could be because he's town)

joth seems town because he's being a little jumpy with his vote, which is how town-joth usually plays (at least MII and MIV)
Have we ever seen mafia-joth?  I know he was SK in III, but I didn't really follow that game well enough at the beginning.

Grujah-I excused his lurking day1 given his real-life predicament.  He's posted more today, some of substance.  He was scum in another unmentionable game, which may have impacted his play.  Certainly more suspicious to me than either of the previous two.  He's the current lynch target.  I'd be willing to hammer him, but only after everyone's said their peace.

Frisk-I dunno, he seems less abrasive to me this game.  More like SK-Frisk of MIV than the mafia Frisk's of VI and VIII.  Although he seems less pro-town than he seemed to me in IV.  But, if he's not scum then a previous supposition is incorrect.

So, given that, I'm somewhat more suspicious of joth, because I'm not convinced that it's "town-joth" and not just joth's style.  OTOH, that would pretty probably mean that O is not scum (although it could be a bus).  So, that should bring some focus back to Insom/sparky.  Anyways, this problem-space is too large to exhaust...and I'm not sure how beneficial it would be.

PPE: and Grujah has also claimed doctor, eh?  Hmm...I think there's more to say on that.

[theorel]

Okay, so double-doctor claim, and some notes.  The following are direct implications if both doctor claims are true:
1. This can only happen if we have a jailkeeper also.
2. With 2 other roles, we would have rolled 5 PRs on the 7 rolls.  That leaves a MAX of 2 unclaimed roles.
3. We are guaranteed to have a mafia JOAT and 1-shot bus driver in the game.  Which in particular means at least 1 shot which can bypass protection.  And a one-shot roleblock that can prevent protection.

Anything we might want to do in the face of the double claim should take those things into account.

[Grujah]

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.

Heh, as I've said "Whaoh, 3 pages'". Didn't even know you were at L-1 and claimed. We both being Doc is not impossible but VERY unlikely, (I'll trust your numbers, at least). So I am very happy with my vote where it is.

[Robz888]

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

[Robz888]

Cuzz has been scrutinized plenty, thanks. Can't quite tell from Grujah's post whether he even read my claim or the aftermath. For what it's worth, given that there's one doctor, there's about an 11% chance of there being more than 1.

Heh, as I've said "Whaoh, 3 pages'". Didn't even know you were at L-1 and claimed. We both being Doc is not impossible but VERY unlikely, (I'll trust your numbers, at least). So I am very happy with my vote where it is.

Cuzz's claim is essentially demonstrably true tho

[Cuzz]

N1 I protected Insomniac as he wasn't scummy and is prone to dying N1.

Slightly intoxicated.

[Grujah]

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.

[Robz888]

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.

U r right, I'm sorry. A bit drunk.

[Cuzz]

Gru did not say who he saved. Why not? It's the easiest thing to do...

I did. Reread.

U r right, I'm sorry. A bit drunk.

That makes all of us then.

[sparky5856]

PROD CONFiRMED

I do owe everyone an apology for not being here. Unfortunately real life has to come first. Thursdays and Fridays are when I'm scheduled for my part time job, plus I have a lot of school on Thursday.

But enough ranting about my personal life. I need to play the game. I haven't seen if I had any votes yet, let me read the thread to check out the major action.

[sparky5856]

So I'm gonna be speaking with a fresh mind after not playing the game for a while. So, what I say might not be in line with what I've said before. Honestly, I think my playstyle of typing big posts and not posting much is a poor one. I think that I'm too specific and rant-prone in my posts, which all leads to disorganized thoughts.

So the major post that bothered me is this one:

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

Quick question: What does PPE mean? I AM a newbie at mafia apparently >_<

Anyway, he mentions me here. But he doesn't mention me again until #726. Wouldn't that be under the spectrum of "missing me"? If you want people to check me and they don't, you need to PUSH your thoughts. Bringing up #726 for reference:

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.

He's all over the radar here with his scumreads. Right now, "probable" scum reads aren't good, I would much prefer "certain" scum reads, given our position at the moment. Not much room for error.

And yeah, the fact that the two "doctors" are head-to-head against each other makes me think one of them is lying. In MIX mafia (I reference that a lot don't I. That's because that's the only game I've completed so far. Experience is a virtue.) the second doctor to claim was the one to lie. (There was a third claim of doctor too and he ABSOLUTELY lied.) Makes me think that the reason they do so is to push more suspicion on the doc who claimed already. Which Grujah is doing.

I'm inclined to believe Grujah is lying. Cuzz's claim is more believeable (#689, #695).

L-1? I'm not hammering. I want everyone to realize that I'm here now and give feedback to me.

[sparky5856]

And Robz, can you give me a quote or a summary of the scum newbie post you think I so clearly emulated? (how's this for artificially upping my post count?)

 

[Captain_Frisk]

PPE means post preview edit (i think), basically, after you post, and you get the warning that X new posts have appeared.  You haven't posted yet, and you might want to ammend based on what you've now read, but are too lazy.

[Captain_Frisk]

Or maybe Pre Post Edit?  as in an edit you are doing pre posting?

[Insomniac]

PPE means post preview edit (i think), basically, after you post, and you get the warning that X new posts have appeared.  You haven't posted yet, and you might want to ammend based on what you've now read, but are too lazy.

I've taken it to mean "pre post edit"

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm not sure that grujah's breadcrumb is really compelling to me.

Do we really believe we have double doctors?

Unvote for discussion

[jotheonah]

This is a good game.

[Robz888]

If Grujah is telling the truth and Cuzz is lying, the mafia deserve to beat us. I urge a Grujah lynch. That is all.

[Grujah]

Ok, up and of clearer head.

@sparky
I was going do focus on you next, after Cuzz, but didn't get around it yet. Yes, my reads are all over, and have been most D2, I am not always as good as in MIX which was my prime, but I did pin Cuzz as scum, and he turned out to (very likely) be one. I've skipped 3 pages before writing this and didn't pick up his claim before I''ve made that post. With it, and with very low chances* of both of our claims being true, he just gets up to very top. But if I die now hat will be obvious anyway.



@General
You've guys have again done the thing that makes me say that forced claims are stupid. Somebody claims L-1 and you all unvote. It's too easy for scum to fake this, he gets town cred, it brings out other claims, it sucks.

My claim by itself was stupid, and I almost didn't do it, but due to events in another game which I cannot discuss, I though non claiming was even stupider due to bad meta going around here. It turned out fine as it counterclaimed a liar, which is good and I would actually condone such a claim, but that was uninentional at original posting.


@Cuzz's post -
Meh, he "crumbed" a any-role crumb. I targeted a Hider so I didn't get anything"- anyrole fits that.
Also FoSing everybody who doesn't believe him even though they do not have any substantial proof to do so.. Meh, dunno if you are trying to scare people into unvoting of faking mad, panicking townie.

*
PPPKHXX gets it, but with only 50% chance.
PPPKKHX gets it, and if X is T than there is only one more Townie, if X is non-T there is SK.
Suck at calculating these.

[Grujah]

Waaaaaiiittt a minute there.

Is Insomniac going around L-1ing and forcing claims out, all aloud?

Thats so freaking too much anti-town. I might have been so wrong about him.

[Grujah]

Heck, the more I think about it the more it sounds like very solid scum strategy.

If him and Cuzz are scumteam - it's kinda unintuitive to do it on a partner first, but not that unbelieveable at all, a bus and such. If we both are doctor by change he has just pulled the best mafia move on f.ds history.


Uuuuugh... hate to do it, Vote: Insomniac

[O]

vote: Theorel

I think this is where i'll keep it for the rest of the day.

[jotheonah]

Vote: Robz

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-12

O (1): theorel
Grujah (3): Cuzz, Robz888, Insomniac
Insomniac (1): Grujah
theorel (1): O
Robz888 (1): jotheonah

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, Captain_Frisk

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

vote: Theorel

I think this is where i'll keep it for the rest of the day.

Strong reasoning and general pro-town behavior from you as usual.

[Cuzz]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

[sparky5856]

This is not easy. >_<

Heck, the more I think about it the more it sounds like very solid scum strategy.

If him and Cuzz are scumteam - it's kinda unintuitive to do it on a partner first, but not that unbelieveable at all, a bus and such. If we both are doctor by change he has just pulled the best mafia move on f.ds history.


Uuuuugh... hate to do it, Vote: Insomniac

If I die before I can respond, scrutinize Cuzz and sparky, probably also theo and O. Jo is good, Ins goodish but less so , and Robz in face of everything I've said in that long post is mostly town after all, methinks.


And I completely forgot Frisk.. Dunno about him, he was lurky.

See this is what I mean by all over the map. As for his case on Insomniac, I dunno. I haven't gotten much of a read on him as of late, but his read depends on Cuzz being scum, which I and no one else believes now.

And what's with all this voting for no given reasons? We'll never reach a majority that way.

Unfortunately most of you are not here during the weekend when I'm at my prime level of activity >_<

[jotheonah]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

If Cuzz and Grujah are both telling the truth, which actually seems very possible, than the person who drove the wagons on both of them is without a doubt Robz. I think I abandoned my old read too soon.

[Robz888]

Okay, I looked over the setup info again. Because now we have a lot of info relating to the JK9++ setup. Remember that you pick 7 random numbers between 0 and 100, and all the ones that come out less than 50 end up town. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

If Grujah and Cuzz are both Doctors, we must have a Jailkeeper. There is no way to generate a two Doctor scenario without a Jailkeeper. So let's say that's what he have. That takes up 3 of our 7. We also have a Hider and a Vigilante (Eevee and ashersky, confirmed). That's 5 out of 7.

So there are possibly 2 more roles out there, but that would have meant the setup flipped heads (rather than tales) 7 times in a row. Which is certainly possible, though not the most likely thing, strictly speaking.

I'm not sure where this is going, I guess. Also, I don't know why O is voting for Theorel, and I don't know why Jo is voting for me again.

[Robz888]

Vote: Robz

Jo what happened to your townread on Robz?

I also am liable to believe this claim. So I'll just go back to Vote: Robz

Yeah, but Robz's reaction to Cuzz's claim reads very town. If he were scum, I have no doubt he could have concocted a response that said "Yeah, right nice try" very convincingly. Robz is reading townier and townier to me.  And my case for scum-O sort of falls apart with town-Robz, as I said before.

So I'm sort of back at square one.

If Cuzz and Grujah are both telling the truth, which actually seems very possible, than the person who drove the wagons on both of them is without a doubt Robz. I think I abandoned my old read too soon.

I'm positive Cuzz is telling the truth, I'm much less sure Grujah is, but as you say it's possible... if there's a Jailkeeper.

I certainly drove the wagon on both of them, but I could have hardly guessed they would turn out to be doctors. And I am far from convinced that Grujah actually is a Doctor.

[sparky5856]

Here's what bothers me: what are the odds that, in a game with two doctors, they both were forced to claim right after the other?

[Robz888]

Here's what bothers me: what are the odds that, in a game with two doctors, they both were forced to claim right after the other?

Well, I mean that's not an "odds" thing, that's just bad luck. I see what you mean that it seems like unlikely bad luck, but bad luck still.

[Cuzz]

Here's what I find interesting: Me and Grujah both got to L-1 with the exact same wagon, just with Grujah on mine and vice versa. I really do have a town read on Robz now, for reasons I've mentioned before, but now especially after he went out of his way to defend my claim with more evidence than I gave. I mean, if Robz is scum, then he's a scum wizard to pull that move. So I am (still) suspicious of Frisk and Insomniac.

I am not entirely convinced by Grujah's claim for now, and since Frisk unvoted he's at L-2 so I'm ok keeping my vote there. His claim was weird in that it didn't look like he had read my claim at the time. I'm not sure if that makes him look better or worse: on the one hand scum would probably have been much more careful to know exactly what had been going on before fakeclaiming, but on the other hand he might have just panicked and claimed quickly, and doc is a PR fakeclaim with a low chance of backfiring immediately.

Remember, if there is 1 doctor (which there is), then there is an 11% chance of there being multiple doctors. And as Robz said, there must also be a Jailkeeper. It's also odd that Grujah really still doesn't believe my claim, since I seem to have done enough to convince everyone else.

[jotheonah]

Ok, don't jump on me here, but here's an idea.

If there must be a Jailkeeper for there to be two Doctors, shall we just ask the JK to claim?

If no one claims, we know either Cuzz or Grujah is scum.

If a JK claims, then it's very possible we have two doctors. With 2 doctors and a JK, we have a very good chance of saving some of those 3 power roles through night action WIFOM.

This falls under theory stuff that I'm usually bad at, so I want to hear what other people think.
I want a town consensus before any actual claiming happens.

[Robz888]

Ok, don't jump on me here, but here's an idea.

If there must be a Jailkeeper for there to be two Doctors, shall we just ask the JK to claim?

If no one claims, we know either Cuzz or Grujah is scum.

If a JK claims, then it's very possible we have two doctors. With 2 doctors and a JK, we have a very good chance of saving some of those 3 power roles through night action WIFOM.

This falls under theory stuff that I'm usually bad at, so I want to hear what other people think.
I want a town consensus before any actual claiming happens.

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

[Robz888]

Even so, it might not be so bad. If we want to essentially role the dice, we would be getting close to the point where we have so may named townies we can use process of elimination.

Other possible plans are killing Grujah, the more likely liar, and if he flips Doctor, there IS a Jailkeeper to possibly protect Cuzz or WIFOM.

Or we leave Grujah and Cuzz alive with orders to always protect each other. Of course there are those damn strongman kills, right?

[Robz888]

I probably lean toward thinking the Jailkeeper should step forward. And then we will have a lot of tangible info and hopefully can spot a liar, or acquit three people.

[jotheonah]

doc-JK can't mutually protect. Because JK keeps the doctor from doctoring.

But two doctors can mutually protect.

[Robz888]

doc-JK can't mutually protect. Because JK keeps the doctor from doctoring.

But two doctors can mutually protect.

I know they can't, but if there is a JK and he keeps silent, he can protect Cuzz.

[sparky5856]

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

Protection Roles
P = Doctor OR Jailkeeper (50/50 chance of either)
PP = Jailkeeper, Doctor
PPP = Jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor
PPPP = jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor, Doctor

Isn't it possible for there to be a jailkeeper with only one doctor or am I missing something? Even if one was lying, there's still no certainty whether or not there's a jailkeeper. So, the mafia take a gamble with claiming JK no matter what.

[Robz888]

I was very, very close to suggesting this very thing to the town. But here's one problem--and I hesitate to mention it, because I don't want to give them any ideas, but alas, here it is--a mafia could easily claim Jailkeeper. At this point, the mafia know for certain whether the Jailkeeper is in the game, because the mafia knows whether either Cuzz or Grujah are lying (i.e., if neither Cuzz or Grujah are liars, the mafia know not to claim Jailkeeper). But let's say Grujah is a liar, and he is scum. One of his scumbuddies could claim Jailkeeper; after all, he knows there is no Jailkeeper, because he knows there is only 1 doctor.

And then we'll be really screwed.

Protection Roles
P = Doctor OR Jailkeeper (50/50 chance of either)
PP = Jailkeeper, Doctor
PPP = Jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor
PPPP = jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor, Doctor

Isn't it possible for there to be a jailkeeper with only one doctor or am I missing something? Even if one was lying, there's still no certainty whether or not there's a jailkeeper. So, the mafia take a gamble with claiming JK no matter what.

Oh, you're right. Well, that was stupid of me.

So yeah, I think our Jailkeeper should likely claim then.

[jotheonah]

Shall we popcorn claim JK or not JK? That way we can make our scummiest players go first.

[Robz888]

Shall we popcorn claim JK or not JK? That way we can make our scummiest players go first.

I don't know what you mean, but I take it you want me to go first, which is fine.

Are we playing like the game popcorn? Like I say, "I'm not the Jailkeeper. Popcorn O."

And then O does it?

[jotheonah]

Actually I was thinking that, but popcorn is not the way to go. We need to have the people the town thinks are scummiest go first.

If there's one person everyone trusts that's the easiest. Otherwise, I guess we should all make a list and average them? Go in order of most to fewest votes? Since Cuzz and Gru have claimed already, the people that need to are:

Robz
O
Insomniac
theorel
sparky
jotheonah

My list, scummiest to towniest, goes:

O
Robz
theorel
sparky
insom
jo

[Robz888]

Actually I was thinking that, but popcorn is not the way to go. We need to have the people the town thinks are scummiest go first.

If there's one person everyone trusts that's the easiest. Otherwise, I guess we should all make a list and average them? Go in order of most to fewest votes? Since Cuzz and Gru have claimed already, the people that need to are:

Robz
O
Insomniac
theorel
sparky
jotheonah

My list, scummiest to towniest, goes:

O
Robz
theorel
sparky
insom
jo

You missed Frisk (telling?), but anyway I'm not sure this part of it matters soooo much. I'm not even really sure I can order people that neatly. Well, I suppose I can try. How about this:

Frisk
theorel
sparky
Insomniac
O
Jotheonah
Robz (although I am fine with going first, and expect to)

Fake FOS to Jo for suggesting more time-wasting nonsense. We have to get on with this already.

[O]

I'm not the jailkeeper.
If I'm scummiest as supposed I should claim first, right? 

[jotheonah]

Oops. Slot Frisk in under theorel on my list. Some good initiative, O.

[Robz888]

I am also not the Jailkeeper.

[Robz888]

Let's hear from Frisk/Theorel/sparky/Insomniac next. I actually don't really have an ordering for those people--none of them would surprise me as scum.

[sparky5856]

Fake FOS to Jo for suggesting more time-wasting nonsense. We have to get on with this already.

Indeed. I say we make a move on. Not much activity on the weekend.

And since O has gotten a head start I might as well... I'm not the JK. I popcorn Robz if we're still doing popcorn.

PPE: Hey I'm using PPE correctly? Radical. Someone else claim then.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Joth for rolefishing for a jailkeeper. 

If we're going to drive a jailkeeper claim out, we might as well full claim and see if we can actually get some conflicting claims out.

[sparky5856]

What? The point of this is to see if Grujah or Cuzz is lying. Why refuse to find out?

[Captain_Frisk]

Lets assume for a second that they are telling the truth.  This outs another town PR.  Since the odds of a 6th and 7th town PR are increasingly small, we've effectively forced claims out of all of the town PRs, and let Mafia sit around smiling.

[Robz888]

Lets assume for a second that they are telling the truth.  This outs another town PR.  Since the odds of a 6th and 7th town PR are increasingly small, we've effectively forced claims out of all of the town PRs, and let Mafia sit around smiling.

And we've also narrowed down scum to a vanishingly small pool of contenders. Scum can't kill all our PRs in one night, so I think it's just the price we pay at this point, and not necessarily so bad.

[Robz888]

Oh, and Vote: Captain_Frisk. You're here, we're doing this, and so should you.

[Captain_Frisk]

I will not.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-13

O (1): theorel
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Insomniac
Insomniac (1): Grujah
theorel (1): O
Robz888 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1): Robz888

Not voting {1}: sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Robz888]

I will not.

I urge you to reconsider.

[sparky5856]

yeah should have done this my last post.

VOTE: Captain_Frisk

Reason why I didn't is because I wanted to see his response. Not particularly convincing for me; I see all of this more as what Robz said about narrowing down the scum pool.

Either Frisk is the jailkeeper himself... or he's scum not wanting to reveal his role. Or I'm wrong. In which case maybe he's just an anticonformist.

[Robz888]

yeah should have done this my last post.

VOTE: Captain_Frisk

Reason why I didn't is because I wanted to see his response. Not particularly convincing for me; I see all of this more as what Robz said about narrowing down the scum pool.

Either Frisk is the jailkeeper himself... or he's scum not wanting to reveal his role. Or I'm wrong. In which case maybe he's just an anticonformist.

If Frisk is himself the Jailkeeper, then he must surely realize the horrible disservice he will do the town when everyone but him claims. Because then we will be forced to kill a doctor.

[jotheonah]

I'm not claiming until theorel claims, and neither should Insom.

[Captain_Frisk]

Surely if I am the jailkeeper, or I know that there is one, you are aware that revealing that information is extremely anti town, unless we're just going to commit to full claiming anyway.

[sparky5856]

So what happens if multiple people claim JK? Say one person claims JK and he's scum. The real JK counterclaims him and starts a wagon on him. But if there is a liar among them, then we're not sure which one is the REAL JK. Now say town first claims JK. Scum can counterclaim and start a wagon on the real JK, and we won't know for sure which is the real one.

But that's all foolishness, right? Once the fake scum JK eliminates the real JK, that reveals the scum's identity, and they will die shortly after. So, not smart. It makes much more intuitive sense for the real JK to counterclaim than for scum to counterclaim.

RAMBLING WHY AM I DOING THIS

Also why is Captain_Frisk calling for full-claiming? Isn't forcing out all of the town PR's (which we WILL do in that case) anti-town as he said?

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm suggesting that if there is a jk, then outing themselves is bad play.  As such, I am voting joth for trying to role fish.

[Robz888]

I'm suggesting that if there is a jk, then outing themselves is bad play.  As such, I am voting joth for trying to role fish.

There's just very little chance that we are truly playing the double doctor scenario. Chance, sure, but a small one. Outing the JK will confirm the story, and we will have 3 people we know are town.

The alternative is to disbelieve Grujah's claim, and kill him. The other alternative is to believe both, and kill someone else.

I think the outing-the-JK scenario is not quite so bad as these others, and if no one claims JK we get our scum for sure. I would rather have the claims out there and trust myself in evaluating them. Even so, I see no reason for everyone to fullclaim. However, this is a situation where we do profit directly from the JK claiming, specifically.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh, and sparky, with 3 scum in this position, I would absolutely counterclaim jk as a vanilla goon.  Sure, you'll be a guaranteed day 3 lynch, but you'll get the most dangerous protective role out of the game, and you have scum to spare.

[Captain_Frisk]

What the heck is wrong with you robz?  A jk does not confirm that the doctors are real, it just doesn't prove that one of them is lying,

[Captain_Frisk]

Did we get grujahs protection claim?  On a pad and searching sucks.

[jotheonah]

I'm totally stumped this game, and I think the chance at a 50/50 chance (that we would get if no one claimed JK) is worth it. I did, however, want to wait for town consensus before anyone claimed. But O jumped out, somewhat unsurprisingly.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok joth.  Assume that you are town, and there is no jk.

That proves that one of the doctors is lying. 

That puts 2scum in the remaining 6.  Is it worth a 50 pct chance of lynching our only protective role to get a jump from 33pct scum in the remaining 6 non claimers?

[sparky5856]

Wait a minute. Brain-fart.

If we DO have a JK who claims, that doesn't put both Cuzz and Grujah in the clear. It's possible for there to be only one doctor with a jailkeeper. And I'm the one who pointed that out. DUrrrrrrrrrrp.

And Frisk already said this. Well, we still know that one is lying if no one claims JK.

Frisk, who is more suspicious to you, Cuzz or Grujah?

[theorel]

I'm not comfortable claiming until everyone has weighed in.  I believe some people haven't.  The essential issue (as already stated) is that we can only prove one of the claims is lying through this, NOT that both claims are true.  If we could prove both claims were true, 3 named townies, I think, would be worth the claim.  So, I think the question we have to ask is what do we do if we do get a jailkeeper claim?  And decide if that scenario works out well enough to merit the claiming.  With 3 people already claiming non-JK...(5 if you count the doctors), that leaves 4 people unclaimed.  Is it enough to keep the JK a mystery within that group?  I dunno.  I'd like to hear Insom weigh in on the claims (unless I missed his comment...I'll be double-checking)

[Insomniac]

I'm still vla but I don't want to hold up this game to much and I have been keeping up in between games. I don't think it's worth the chance of outing a pr to say one of them might not be lying. There is such a slim chance we have 3P's that while possible is not something worth outing a jk to the mafia for IMO. That said if the consensus ends up being pro jk/no jk claim I will go along with it. (If a jk actually guaranteed that gruj/cuzz aren't lying it would be a different story. It doesn't do that)

[Robz888]

Vote: Grujah

I don't think there's a Jailkeeper, and some of his mafia friends are trying to cover for him.

[Cuzz]

So here are the 5 possibilities from my perspective. I do not include my thoughts on what anyone should do because I'm not sure:

A. JK/not JK claim stalls. We have no new info other than that a couple of particular people are not JK. But still a chance there is a mystery JK who can protect me! In terms of a lynch for today, we probably should try to get Grujah to talk more and get a better sense of whether he's lying the old fashioned way. Or perhaps we move on to other targets to be safe since there is more scum out there for the lynchin'.

B. JK claims and everyone believes him. We are unsure whether Grujah is lying (I know myself to be not lying). So again, we either try to deduce if he's lying or lynch someone else. But we've outed another PR, and WIFOM all around for the NK tonight.

C. JK claims but might be lying. This seems more likely than B. After all, not believing Grujah's doctor claim is what got us to this debacle in the first place. If Grujah is scum, a scumbuddy has incentive to fake claim JK to avoid scenario D.

D. Everyone claims not JK. Easy. Lynch Grujah. No other protective roles, though, so I die tonight.

E. Multiple people claim JK. Ugh.

[O]

vote:grujah

I agree with Robz and think we don't have a JK. This whole refusing to claim business is quite suspicious.

[O]

unvote fuck thought I hammered there for a second

[O]

either way we don't need to be at L-1 now and if I did put him l-1/hammer I'm pretty sure I'm lynched next. Forgot there were previous votes on him.

[Cuzz]

Not a hammer by my count. Would be L-1.

[O]

Not a hammer by my count. Would be L-1.

obviously if it was a hammer me unvoting would have been useless. I still didn't want L-1 

[Cuzz]

Not a hammer by my count. Would be L-1.

obviously if it was a hammer me unvoting would have been useless. I still didn't want L-1 

I get it. Just clarifying.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-14

O (1): theorel
Grujah (3): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1): sparky5856

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Here's all the evidence against Grujah:

• Suspicious hardcore lurking, not in keeping with active town personality of previous games MVI and MIX
• Re-appeared when he was in trouble, but didn't make original arguments
• Has the significantly weaker of two doctor claims, in a game where the odds of two doctors are low (but still exist)
• Doctor is the go-to fake claim
• Half the town affirmed they are not Jailkeepers, but several players have refrained from weighing in--likely scum there not wanting to fake claim Jailkeeper and risk losing both themselves and Grujah, so have tried to save him instead by not letting the JK claiming finish.
• I do not see any player defending Grujah. And if there is a secret Jailkeeper among us, I would expect that person to be saying things like, "I do not find Grujah suspicious, the case against him is bad."

Keeping in mind the clock, I think there's sufficient evidence to kill Grujah at this point. There is a benefit to doing it without any more JK claiming, to protect the JK, obviously. So, I personally am fine with Grujah being hammered, but he's two votes away, so I guess there needs to be a bit more discussion. Although I say give him the axe at this point. Let's not drag this out too much longer.

[sparky5856]

Let me see if I got this deadline thing straight. The day started one week ago. (Boy, how often do you say THAT in real life.) We have three guaranteed real days every game day, so so far we've spent four real days. We've spent four days in Day 1 as well. So, we have thirteen real days left. Yeah, my math is correct. I've taken discrete math, multivariable calculus, and linear algebra classes, so I should know basic addition.

I think now is a good time to switch to night. We want to leave in a lot of discussion time for Day 3 I feel.

Multiple players have now expressed non-willingness to claim or not claim JK. I shouldn't hold just Frisk against that. UNVOTE: Captain_Frisk. Plus after my brainfart I need to reconsider the other side of the JK argument.

VOTE: Grujah. I'm okay with L-1.

[O]

will hammer tonight if there's no objections (10-12 hours).

[Robz888]

will hammer tonight if there's no objections (10-12 hours).

Sounds good to me.

[Cuzz]

No objection here. Will be good timing with a certain other game coming out of night shorty. Since I expect to die overnight, so I'll mention now that captain frisk is my number one suspect for D2.

[Cuzz]

Shortly* Was not commenting on O's stature. Damn phone.

[O]

FYI I'm 6-5 to 6-6. 

[Robz888]

FYI I'm 6-5 to 6-6. 

For some reason, I picture you shorter and rounder... don't know why...

[sparky5856]

No objection here. Will be good timing with a certain other game coming out of night shorty.

Indeed. I still need to read the last half of that game. >_<

[Cuzz]

FYI I'm 6-5 to 6-6. 

For some reason, I picture you shorter and rounder... don't know why...

For some reason I always picture you as a shield-wielding Hylian.

[Robz888]

FYI I'm 6-5 to 6-6. 

For some reason, I picture you shorter and rounder... don't know why...

For some reason I always picture you as a shield-wielding Hylian.

You wouldn't be so far off.

[Captain_Frisk]

I object.  Weekend hammering I don't like.   Joth is at maker faire - I'm golfing and watching football

[jotheonah]

Just got back! Good faire. Saw some interesting NASA-related talks, which was super convenient as I have a job interview tomorrow morning with SPACE.com. Wish me luck!

Mafia: This Grujah lynch seems like a town consensus, making the JK claim game unnecessary, I guess. I don't object to O hammering and I appreciate his waiting to do so.

[Captain_Frisk]

Do not lynch Grujah.

I want to mass claim. Starting with O

[O]

I'm not following any mass claim by CF. If people really want a massclaim and want me to claim first, i'll be happy to do so.

[Robz888]

Do not lynch Grujah.

I want to mass claim. Starting with O

No massclaim. Massclaim right now is unnecessary and bad.

Frisk is being ridiculous. Why should we not lynch Grujah? You haven't given me any good reason. And you already voted for Grujah at one point today, so I know you did at sometime find the case redeeming. You so believe his doctor claim? Is that what you're telling me?

[sparky5856]

Also why is Captain_Frisk calling for full-claiming? Isn't forcing out all of the town PR's (which we WILL do in that case) anti-town as he said?

Yeah. Why role-fish and call out jo for role-fishing? This is getting interesting.

Do not make hasty decisions O. I want everyone to see Frisk's post first and gather some thoughts. I would much prefer a town consensus on these kinds of proposals than just jumping in.

PPE: 2 new.

[Robz888]

At this point, I think Frisk wants us to believe he's the Jailkeeper without him saying so. But then why make the rest of everybody full claim, possibly outing other PRs? He's desperate to save his scumbuddy, plain and simple. There's no logical pro-town explanation for opposing mass JK claim but supporting mass full claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

I have reason to believe that te claim is plausible (and I suspect scum knows it) - so if we are going to out 3 pr claims, with likely very few remaining may as well force scum to make their claims.

[Captain_Frisk]

Someone needs to unvote.

[Captain_Frisk]

I believe I have a plan that will protect the doctors, even of one of them is lying.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah claiming 2nd doc as scum would be incredibly stupid.

[Robz888]

Grujah claiming 2nd doc as scum would be incredibly stupid.

He wasn't caught up at that point, I don't think. I don't think he knew necessarily that Cuzz had claimed. Or perhaps he thought the implausibility of it might lend it credence.

The idea that we should out any other possible roles just so some scum can claim VT makes no sense to me.

I see no reason to unvote, and I'm tired of your stalling. If you have a plan, simply state it. No reason to preview it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Scum don't claim without reading.

I'm not stalling, im prone posting while babysitting and Erving football.

[Robz888]

Scum don't claim without reading.

I'm not stalling, im prone posting while babysitting and Erving football.

Fine. Unvote

But I am revoting tomorrow when I wake up if I don't see a compelling argument.

[theorel]

just checking in to say hi.  Nothing much to say until Frisk reveals his grand-master-plan...I can't conceive of what could protect both doctors even if one is lying, but eh I'll still listen.

[jotheonah]

Does "prone posting" mean you are lying on the floor?

[Captain_Frisk]

Prone posting... i may have been lying on the couch, fighting off the little one with one hand while PHONE posting with the other.

Anyhow,

I am the jailkeeper

Realistically, my refusal to claim probably confirmed this for scum, so I don't think I'm giving up much.  Since power roles become increasingly less likely at 5,6, and 7, even if one of the doctors is lying, I have a suspicion that I'm the last unclaimed role, but I'm not willing to intentionally LYNCH a doctor to preserve my identity.

I am in favor of mass claiming, because if both doctors are real, then we do have 3 mafia + a serial killer, and it is actually possible to lose tonight.

FOS RobZ for not at least letting me keep a tracker claim viable until we walked through other roleclaims.

So - this means that double doctor is plausible.  Unfortunately, it also means that as long as one of the doctor claims is legit, that we have a mafia JOAT, which means there's no way to prevent my death tonight unless I jailkeep the JOAT, because he can strongman kill me if he desires otherwise.  (Hopefully he already used it, but that seems unlikely)

Of the 2 doctor claims, I trust Grujah the most, because I can't imagine scum claiming doc without reading.

So - my plan would be as follows.

1. Don't lynch any of the 3 of us.
2. Doctors each flip a coin at night.  Heads you protect me.  Tails you protect the other doc.
3. I roll a d3.  On a 1 I protect cuz.  On a 2 I protect Grujah.  On a 3 I attempt to block my biggest remainign scum read.

As long as one of the doctors is real, I get at least a 50% shot of protection, and each of the doctors has a chance of being protected as well.  (Either from me, or from one of the other doctors)

With directed random action selection, scum will either be forced to use their strongman attack (they can't roleblock because they don't know who will be targeting who), or they will have to kill one of the vanilla townies.  Otherwise, they will be intentionally taking the chance of no night kill.  I'm sure theorel will appreciate that intentionally giving up the NK is a questionable decision.

I am not announcing who I jailkept last night, to allow for a chance at catching them in a lie (ie, lets say I JK'd joth, if he claims tracker investigation on Cuzz, then I can disprove it)

So, I want to direct a mass claim, starting with O for being super scummy (quick hammering Day 1), attempting? to hammer Day 2, and for being super tall. 

I wish I was a little bit taller.

[jotheonah]

Ok. I like this plan. I think we might as well mass claim at this point.

[Captain_Frisk]

And screw robz for making me miss an eagles scorin drive

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, if there are 3 scum + Sk, then we've helped them isolate each other, which is good.

[Robz888]

The reason I don't like this plan is because of my suspicion that both Frisk and Grujah are lying scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

How bad of a scum player do you think I an?

[sparky5856]

Yeah Frisk's plan relies on the fact that NO ONE is lying so far. How likely is that?

And I have a question. Should likely scum claim last? If they do, they'll have fewer options to claim as. If everyone else claims before the most likely scum, we can piece together the specific setup we're using (i.e. specifically how many I's, P's, K's, H's, T's, R's we drew). It gets more and more trickier to get away with lying if you're scum the later you claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

Even if one doctor is lying, the 2 people telling the truth have a reasonable Jane to protect each other. Scum can't know who to target without using host powers.

[Robz888]

I don't like Frisk's plan. I don't believe that he's the Jailkeeper. I don't think anyone else should claim. Grujah's doctor claim is not credible if there is no real Jailkeeper. Ergo, I am going to Vote: Grujah

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - this looks like Cuzz is your scum buddy, and you're aiming to kill all of the town PRs in one shot.

[Robz888]

RobZ - this looks like Cuzz is your scum buddy, and you're aiming to kill all of the town PRs in one shot.

I don't care what it looks like. I care what it is. You and Grujah are scum.

[Robz888]

Cuzz's responses to the night deaths at the start of Day 2 are pretty incontrovertibly coming from a Doctor who thought he had saved Eevee, in my view. So his claim is to me confirmed.

[Robz888]

Well, hold on. Unvote

[Robz888]

If we do massclaim, we should be able to count up the number of power roles... and then see if that would mean we have SK or no SK. The deaths last night suggest to me that there is no SK.

But of course if we actually have 2 Doctors and a Jailkeeper, it's just very likely we blocked one of the kills. So... ugh.

Yeah, I still don't actually think massclaiming is a good idea. It would be a good idea if I trusted Frisk.

[Robz888]

No, I'm decided.

Vote: Grujah

Lurking Grujah isn't powerful townie Grujah.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hedging much?

Vote: RobZ

If he's town, this game is over anyway.

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - if you're town - I strongly advise that you reconsider.  Grujah claiming 2nd doc without reading (or knowing that I'm a JK) is retarded stupid.

If Grujah AND I were both scum, then I'd be retarded to early claim to save his ass.  I would be firing up the buss and running his ass over.

Whether there is 1 or 2 doctors, it is unlikely that we have many other PRs, and if they we do, they probably suckish.  (Tracker, 1 shot commuter, Vengeful, yet another doctor, flavor cop)

Even so, I'm the #1 target, and doctor(s?) would probably be 2nd, so they will live long enough to possibly use their powers ANYWAY.

[O]

Lets see: Would PR O quickhammer D1 with Vigs out? Of course he would, I'm the real doctor!!

No? Oh right I'm VT like every goddamn game i'm town (1-shot doc/siblings doesn't count in a semi role madness game robz).

Much to Frisk's chagrin, I don't think Robz is scummiest anymore. I think Theorel is pretty goddamn scummy for his nonsensical tunneling of me and lack of any contributions to anything whatsoever.

Grujah is still scummy but there's no reason to lynch the scummy claimed doctor over other scummy people.

[Insomniac]

I still highly suspect Grujah is scum because his claim seems so fake, however I am willing to follow Frisk on this mass claim as I said before if the consensus is that we should. I just don't believe we have 2 doctors AND a jailkeeper and Cuzz's claim seems more legitamate.

[Grujah]

Back from Prerelease, took extra long cuz I missed a bus back. Will post tonight. Scimmed and seems like Robz is heavy pushing me and Frisk wants a massclaim.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-15

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

EDIT:  Grujah vote count fixed.
2ND EDIT:  Robz vote count fixed.  Sorry gang.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think that vote count here might be mistaken.  If RobZ is voting for Grujah, that looks suspiciously like (4)

[theorel]

Let's see: 9 players.
Suppose Grujah, Cuzz, and Frisk are all telling the truth.  I know I'm town (obviously other players will have to substitute themselves if they're town.  If they're mafia, they already know what's going on).
That means ONE of O, Insomniac, Robz, joth, and sparky is town.  1 is SK, the other 3 mafia.

If that's true, then the scum have played a very strong game here, because I cannot see 3 of those 5 as mafia.

I could see 2 of them being mafia, which only requires one of the doctor claims to be lying.

Some random notes on Frisk's plan.
1. strongman breaks jailkeeper too (breaks roleblock).  All they have to do is use a strongman kill and it will go through regardless of any town actions.  Hence, you CANNOT protect any of you, you can only make scum use their strongman kill.  So, no wasted kill by the scum, and no chance they'll kill VT IF you're all telling the truth.
2. After that they still have bus-driving and roleblocking so they can still kill everyone.

In short, Frisk's plan does not in fact PROTECT any of our claimers, only uses scum resources that have little use outside of breaking protections in order to kill them.  And this is assuming everyone is telling the truth.

@ Frisk: I don't see a strong reason scum wouldn't claim doctor even after reading another doctor claim.  Hoping to pull a jailkeeper (or no keeper) claim is a legitimate strategy.  Planning on a team-mate stepping in if it seemed no one else would claim is also reasonable.
OTOH: I feel like you play a very different game when it comes to PRs than other people.  (combining this with your MIX? play where you said you wanted everyone to hit L-1 and claim).  So, I can understand why you would think as you do concerning Grujah.

So, really the questions should be:
1. Is one of the doctor claims sufficiently more trustworthy?
Cuzz: all of his comments at start of day are just as attributable to a scum-team that wanted to kill Eevee and decided to kill Ashersky to do so (IMO).
Grujah: his breadcrumbs are weak-sauce.  I don't think a second doctor-claim which is likely to pull another PR is inherently more believable, whether he read or not.
-result: Cuzz is more believable, but it's not straining credibility to think that he may have lied.  I don't think his claim is far and away more believable than Grujah's, I'd give it like a 60-40 split in believability.

2. Is Frisk's claim believable?
Actually, I'd say his claim seems fairly believable.  It's possible that scum-Frisk would fake-claim to save a team mate, but he still hasn't seemed over-much like scum-Frisk this game.

3. Should we mass-claim?
Well, given that I already think that these three claims are unreasonable (simply because of who it implies are the scum this game), I don't see a strong reason to.  I don't think it's pro-town to do so.

Anyways, I don't really like lynching one of the suggested PRs because I don't find sufficient reason to disbelieve them.  I think Grujah is the best one there to lynch, but only by a thin margin.  I think a mass-claim would make me more comfortable with it (depending on how many additional PR claims we pick up), but I don't think that we should do it just to be comfortable with the lynch.  I would go along if the remaining majority wants it, but I don't feel strongly whether we should.

[Cuzz]

Theorel you give me too much credit. I am a truly terrible liar.

[Captain_Frisk]

@theorel - who do you think is lying of the 3 of us?

[jotheonah]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

[Captain_Frisk]

Theorel:

Regarding mass claiming

How many of the 3 claimants do you think are lying?

If the answer is 0 - then your analysis is spot on.  There are 4 scum out of the remaining 6 players.  If you rule yourself out, then you can only pick 1 townie out of the remaining.

If the answer is 1 - then there are 2 options:

1. There are no more PRs, and we only have 3 scum total.  You still need to pick 2 scum out of the 5 other people.  There is NO DOWNSIDE TO MASSCLAIMING HERE, because everyone is VT.
2. If there are more PRs, then you're back in the same boat.  We have 4 scum, and even if one of the doctors (Cuzz / Grujah) is lying, then you still need to find 3 scum out of the 5 non claimants - which you apparently don't believe.

If 2 of us are lying, then thats some crazy shit.

All 3 of us can't be lying because I'm not.

[theorel]

@Frisk: I thought I was clear...I find Grujah the most likely liar, just not by a long shot.

To further clarify: it's not a choice between the three of you.  There are several possibilities:
1. You're all telling the truth.  I don't find this compelling because of who it implicates as scum.  Though, it is possible, and I might should consider it more strongly...if O is scum, and 1 off-wagon player is scum (i.e. Insom/sparky), and one of Robz/joth is scum...that's plausible to me.  Though still, a liar seems more likely.

2. One of you is lying.  This only works if it's either Grujah OR Cuzz.  Frisk can't be the sole liar here.  Between Grujah and Cuzz, Grujah is more likely.  But, I could see a case for Cuzz lying, especially if one of his supporters is also scum.  (To clarify, I don't think Cuzz needs to be a great liar for this to be reasonable.  Unlike Robz, I do not see his start-of-day comments to be setting up a doctor claim, they were simply comments about the night kill that fit a doctor claim).

3. Two of you are lying.  I find this unlikely.  However, if it were true I would lean towards Frisk-Grujah lying together.  Their stories support each other, and I think that in a multi-fake-claim case it's most likely that the scum stories support rather than contradict.  Ultimately then, this just adds to the case for believing that Grujah is the liar.  There is the vague possibility that one of the "doctor"s is a SK instead.

4. You're all lying.  I find this very unlikely.  But it would pretty much mean (to me) that Frisk/Grujah are mafia and Cuzz is SK.  Of course if we have no other PRs than those already killed, this could actually be all of the scum in the game.  That'd be weird though.

So, 2 is most likely, and the most likely liar is Grujah, but I can see an argument for Cuzz lying.  1 is more likely to me than 3.


So, that leads to the conclusion (IMO) that we should lynch a non-claimant.  If at most one of you is lying that means that we have as many as 3 scum in the remaining 5 players (as few as 2 if no SK).  That (to me) gives the highest probability of hitting scum.  If I thought that Case 2 above meant Grujah was lying with greater than 60% probability I would think we should lynch him.  I'm not that convinced that the liar (assuming there is one) must be Grujah.  Although I am right about on that line.

[theorel]

@Frisk part 2:

I said I didn't think 3 of the 5 were mafia, I could definitely see 2 mafia + SK there.

[Captain_Frisk]

Next up in the claim chain is Joth, even though I'm agreeing with him right now, I still don't like him.

[theorel]

Regarding mass-claiming.
I think you're off here.  I think I was off also on whether we had a SK.  I'm not sure at what point we got off.
If 1 of you is lying and everyone else is VT, then we have 4 non-town rolls.  This leaves us in the case where we have a SK.
If we have another PR among the 6 non-claimants, then we have no SK.

Now, there are some cases where 2 "non-T" rolls result in a single PR.  So the other cases get a little funky, because if we have, i.e. a gunsmith, we have fewer PRs than non-T rolls.

Anyways, can't assume SK after we assume a doctor is lying.

[Captain_Frisk]

Regarding mass-claiming.
I think you're off here.  I think I was off also on whether we had a SK.  I'm not sure at what point we got off.
If 1 of you is lying and everyone else is VT, then we have 4 non-town rolls.  This leaves us in the case where we have a SK.
If we have another PR among the 6 non-claimants, then we have no SK.

Now, there are some cases where 2 "non-T" rolls result in a single PR.  So the other cases get a little funky, because if we have, i.e. a gunsmith, we have fewer PRs than non-T rolls.

Anyways, can't assume SK after we assume a doctor is lying.

Do you agree that the odds are that everyone else is VT?

[theorel]

Bah, I got it wrong again at the end.
IF no one is lying and no more PRs, we have NO SK.  (2T = no SK)  My analysis was off, only 3 scum in remaining 5 all mafia.  So, 2 town players.  My second analysis is correct since I left the SK out.
If one is lying and ONE PR we have NO SK.
If one is lying and no other PR then SK.

So, anyways taking away a T for the fake-claimed doctor makes the wrong conclusion about SK existence...and it's confusing.

PPE: No, I don't think the odds are in favor of everyone else being VT.  Conditional probability, Gambler's Fallacy, etc.  Even if you were all telling the truth, we would have a >50% chance of more PRs.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bah, I got it wrong again at the end.
IF no one is lying and no more PRs, we have NO SK.  (2T = no SK)  My analysis was off, only 3 scum in remaining 5 all mafia.  So, 2 town players.  My second analysis is correct since I left the SK out.
If one is lying and ONE PR we have NO SK.
If one is lying and no other PR then SK.

So, anyways taking away a T for the fake-claimed doctor makes the wrong conclusion about SK existence...and it's confusing.

PPE: No, I don't think the odds are in favor of everyone else being VT.  Conditional probability, Gambler's Fallacy, etc.  Even if you were all telling the truth, we would have a >50% chance of more PRs.

You are correct, but I think the incremental "damage" by roleclaiming is reduced if there are additional PRs, because scum already have to work through 2 PRs of probably higher priority.

[Cuzz]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

[Robz888]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

Haha, yes! Exactly. Although Jo might actually be the their third guy. You never know.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

As scum, how carefully did you pick those words? 

[Cuzz]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

As scum, how carefully did you pick those words?

Wanna know when I stopped beating my wife too?

[Captain_Frisk]

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

As scum, how carefully did you pick those words?

Wanna know when I stopped beating my wife too?

No, I think most forum mafia players end up being beaten by their wives.

[Insomniac]

I'm still pretty sure Grujah is the lying scum his claim just seems so fake, and he didn't notice that Cuzz has claimed because he was drunk and didn't read all the way when I told him he had to claim because he was at L-1

[Captain_Frisk]

Not reading is precisely why I believe the claim more than Cuzz's.

As a real doctor, if I"m drunk and someone tells me to claim because I'm at l-1, i'll do it because who cares?

As scum?  Doesn't matter how drunk, I'm not claiming without catching up.

[Robz888]

I'm still pretty sure Grujah is the lying scum his claim just seems so fake, and he didn't notice that Cuzz has claimed because he was drunk and didn't read all the way when I told him he had to claim because he was at L-1

Yes. Thank you.

[theorel]

Bah, I got it wrong again at the end.
IF no one is lying and no more PRs, we have NO SK.  (2T = no SK)  My analysis was off, only 3 scum in remaining 5 all mafia.  So, 2 town players.  My second analysis is correct since I left the SK out.
If one is lying and ONE PR we have NO SK.
If one is lying and no other PR then SK.

So, anyways taking away a T for the fake-claimed doctor makes the wrong conclusion about SK existence...and it's confusing.

PPE: No, I don't think the odds are in favor of everyone else being VT.  Conditional probability, Gambler's Fallacy, etc.  Even if you were all telling the truth, we would have a >50% chance of more PRs.

You are correct, but I think the incremental "damage" by roleclaiming is reduced if there are additional PRs, because scum already have to work through 2 PRs of probably higher priority.

Yes, so minimal downside I agree (hence my lack of opposition to the suggestion).  What's the upside?

[Insomniac]

Not reading is precisely why I believe the claim more than Cuzz's.

As a real doctor, if I"m drunk and someone tells me to claim because I'm at l-1, i'll do it because who cares?

As scum?  Doesn't matter how drunk, I'm not claiming without catching up.

The longer he took to claim at that point the less believable it is. I find it more likely he had set up a doctor claim and claimed it because he felt he wasn't claiming something already claimed. He hadn't read but had he taken the time to read his claim would have lost ALL possible merit

[Cuzz]

Not reading is precisely why I believe the claim more than Cuzz's.

As a real doctor, if I"m drunk and someone tells me to claim because I'm at l-1, i'll do it because who cares?

As scum?  Doesn't matter how drunk, I'm not claiming without catching up.

Ok, it's one thing if you think Grujah might be telling the truth, but in what way does this make his claim superior to mine? You're the one claiming JK so you of all people should be seriously accepting the notion that there might be 2 doctors. Plus I had actual evidence to back up my claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

because 1st doctor is a scummy claim.  2nd doctor is insane.

[Cuzz]

because 1st doctor is a scummy claim.  2nd doctor is insane.

Don't know what to tell you dude. I was at L-1 and I am a doctor. Hence I "scummily" claimed doctor.

[Captain_Frisk]

because 1st doctor is a scummy claim.  2nd doctor is insane.

Don't know what to tell you dude. I was at L-1 and I am a doctor. Hence I "scummily" claimed doctor.

As I've said previously, your claim is plausible.  It's just the scummiest claim because the only counterclaim is another doctor AND no jailkeeper.  I love doctor claims...as scum.  Why do you think i claimed back up in Cayvies crazy game? 

But, either way, I think its in towns interest to focus on the other 6 players, because I don't believe that both you and Grujah are scum, and the costs of being wrong elsewhere are lower.

[Robz888]

The best course of action right now is to kill Grujah. No more claims; we kill Grujah. If we are wrong, that means Frisk is one of the good guys, and he can be in charge tomorrow. We will also know that Cuzz's claim was perfectly plausible.

It's good and informative. Let's do it.

[O]

Theorel> Robz > Sparky >Jotheonah > insomniac in scumminess among those who haven't claimed

Robz is quickly going up for continuing to suggest to kill Grujah for information when we're pretty freaking close to mylo. (3 scum SK 5 town atm..)

[Robz888]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer.

[Cuzz]

The best course of action right now is to kill Grujah. No more claims; we kill Grujah. If we are wrong, that means Frisk is one of the good guys, and he can be in charge tomorrow. We will also know that Cuzz's claim was perfectly plausible.

It's good and informative. Let's do it.

Frisk's suggestion to "focus on the other 6" is perfect for him if he and Grujah are scum. That and claiming JK as a cover up for Grujah's hasty claim really points to this as a scumteam.

Ever since Grujah's claim he's been suggesting that it's basically a coinflip as to whether me or Grujah is lying and I don't get the impression that anyone else believes that. Not to be vain but I sensed a consensus that my claim was believed at the time, and now Frisk is trying to spread a "who knows? either could be lying. but Grujah's claim is better" kind of sentiment.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer.

In order for that to be true, we need to have 4 or 6 town PRs.

[Captain_Frisk]

The best course of action right now is to kill Grujah. No more claims; we kill Grujah. If we are wrong, that means Frisk is one of the good guys, and he can be in charge tomorrow. We will also know that Cuzz's claim was perfectly plausible.

It's good and informative. Let's do it.

RobZ - I'm going to be DEAD tomorrow.

[Robz888]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer.

In order for that to be true, we need to have 4 or 6 town PRs.

If your claim, Grujah's, and Cuzz's are true--plus Eevee and ashersky and 1 more person among the remaining players--6 is exactly what we have. If your claim and Grujah's is false, we have 4.

[theorel]

I don't think we have a Serial Killer.

In order for that to be true, we need to have 4 or 6 town PRs.

If your claim, Grujah's, and Cuzz's are true--plus Eevee and ashersky and 1 more person among the remaining players--6 is exactly what we have. If your claim and Grujah's is false, we have 4.

No, I corrected this above.
If we have 2, 4 or 6 PRs then there IS a SK.  (or if we have 3 or 5 with Gunsmith/2 Trackers, though this is highly unlikely given the doctor claims)

If we have 3, 5 or 7 PRs we have NO SK.  (or if we have 4 or 6 with Gunsmith/2 Trackers, unlikely again)


So, if Grujah, Frisk, and Cuzz are all telling the truth and there is ANOTHER PR, then we DO have a SK.  If Grujah and Frisk are both lying and we have another PR then we DO have a SK.  If we remove the "other" PR, then we do NOT have a SK.

[Robz888]

Oh. Well, I have no idea what the right thing is anymore. Although I suspect it's not massclaiming.

[jotheonah]

Next up in the claim chain is Joth, even though I'm agreeing with him right now, I still don't like him.

I'm a VT. it's gotta be Robz or theorel next, though I doubt they'll actually do it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Next up in the claim chain is Joth, even though I'm agreeing with him right now, I still don't like him.

I'm a VT. it's gotta be Robz or theorel next, though I doubt they'll actually do it.

I agree - lets go with RobZ. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Count 2-15

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (1): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

EDIT:  Grujah vote count fixed

How about the RobZ vote?

[Robz888]

Vote Count 2-15

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (1): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

EDIT:  Grujah vote count fixed

How about the RobZ vote?

What about the Robz vote? I don't think it's a good idea for massclaim, no.

[Robz888]

I mean, if two more people say they are going to vote me to L-1... then yes, I'll just go ahead and claim.

[Insomniac]

He meant that volt has 2 people voting for you but you only have 1 vote.

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote Count 2-15

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (1): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

EDIT:  Grujah vote count fixed

How about the RobZ vote?

What about the Robz vote? I don't think it's a good idea for massclaim, no.

I count 2 people voting for RobZ, and yet the count reads 1.

[Robz888]

I definitely have 2 people voting for me for realz.

[Captain_Frisk]

So you wanted me to claim JK pre L-1, but you're not willing to do the same now?  Gotit.

[Robz888]

So you wanted me to claim JK pre L-1, but you're not willing to do the same now?  Gotit.

Yes, because the object was to see if there was a JK, because of the Doctor claims. And remember when you refused to claim it anyway? Got it.

[Cuzz]

So you wanted me to claim JK pre L-1, but you're not willing to do the same now?  Gotit.

Yes, because the object was to see if there was a JK, because of the Doctor claims. And remember when you refused to claim it anyway? Got it.

Robz, be fair. You can't have expected him to come up with all that before taking the time to do a little research on how it could backfire, right?

[Robz888]

So you wanted me to claim JK pre L-1, but you're not willing to do the same now?  Gotit.

Yes, because the object was to see if there was a JK, because of the Doctor claims. And remember when you refused to claim it anyway? Got it.

Robz, be fair. You can't have expected him to come up with all that before taking the time to do a little research on how it could backfire, right?

Well sure. I mean both plans were flawed. They are only going to confirm things if you trust certain people. I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk. I don't furuther disclosure of roles is productive for the town. If you disagree, you'll have to take me to L-1.

[Captain_Frisk]

I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk.

I can promise that you are wrong.

[Robz888]

I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk.

I can promise that you are wrong.

Frisk, do you know for sure that Grujah is not scum? I don't know how you, as the Jailkeeper, could know that.

[Robz888]

I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk.

I can promise that you are wrong.

I don't doubt that I could be wrong. I never doubt that. But then what do we do? We have to look outside of these three, and I'm not looking at me, so then it's O-Jo-Ins-theorel-sparky again. And to be sure, there's at least 1 scum there regardless, in all likelihood. But I have no idea who it is.

[Captain_Frisk]

I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk.

I can promise that you are wrong.

Frisk, do you know for sure that Grujah is not scum? I don't know how you, as the Jailkeeper, could know that.

I do not know.  I know that I am not.

[Captain_Frisk]

I just don't think that Grujah is stupid enough to claim something so crazy.

[Robz888]

I've made up my mind about Grujah-Frisk.

I can promise that you are wrong.

Frisk, do you know for sure that Grujah is not scum? I don't know how you, as the Jailkeeper, could know that.

I do not know.  I know that I am not.

So who do you think we should lynch? I'm glad that you're here and involved right now, FYI, although I can't help but think it was opportunistic to save your scumbuddy, whose death would have put your team in bad straits and possibly indicted you as a likely scum.

[jotheonah]

But is he crazy enough to claim something so stupid?

[Voltgloss]

Apologies for mistakes in previous vote count.

Vote Count 2-16

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

We can skip Robz's claim; he already claimed way back on page 4:

@Robz/Jo
With how hard you guys are pushing this PPS thing though the only way I see it going down is

PPS: Don't know what to tell you guys I'm just a VT

Robz/Jo (in near unison): Not good enough PPS I'm happy with my vote on you.

Insane, and insaner. Okay, we'll all just claim VT, if we are one? I'm a VT, too. Jo, go ahead and claim VT, or say nothing about your role. But if you're a VT, go ahead! There's nothing wrong with it!

So, theorel, you're up.

[Robz888]

Tell me why theorel should claim.

[Captain_Frisk]

So who do you think we should lynch? I'm glad that you're here and involved right now, FYI, although I can't help but think it was opportunistic to save your scumbuddy, whose death would have put your team in bad straits and possibly indicted you as a likely scum.

Ok, from my perspective.

I'm going to assume that at least 1 doctor is not lying.  I'll happily lose and laugh about it if they are both doctors.

No lying, then there are at least 3 scum, possibly 4 remaining among the remaining 6.

1 lying.  If there no other PRs, then there are still 3 scum remaining in other 6.  If there is another PR out there, then perhaps we only have 2 scum in that group of 6.

My #1 suspect is Joth.  I think that pushing for the JK claim was obviously bad - for reasons that I have covered at length.  I claimed because refusing to answer is just as bad as claiming from scum's perspective.  (Unless Cuzz / Grujah is a SK, scum ALREADY know whether or not they are lying, and whether or not there is a JK)

The problem is that I view every single person as scummy.  Grujah is my least scummy suspect because his claim is so incredibly boneheaded as scum its not even funny.  He's basically gambling that I existed.

PPE: Joth - I didn't take that claim seriously.

[Captain_Frisk]

Everyone should claim to force scum to get on the record, because I suspect we've probably already outted 2 PRs.  I'm going to be the #1 kill priority.  The doctor(s) is probably #2.

Any town PRs that claim are going to be much lower on the chain to die, and we will force scum to put themselves on the record.

[Robz888]

Everyone should claim to force scum to get on the record, because I suspect we've probably already outted 2 PRs.  I'm going to be the #1 kill priority.  The doctor(s) is probably #2.

Any town PRs that claim are going to be much lower on the chain to die, and we will force scum to put themselves on the record.

But if you're lying, you're certainly not the scum's number one kill priority. And if you AND Grujah are lying, awful awful awful.

[Captain_Frisk]

And if you AND Grujah are lying, awful awful awful.

You and I are in perfect agreement about how awful that play would be.

[Robz888]

And if you AND Grujah are lying, awful awful awful.

You and I are in perfect agreement about how awful that play would be.

No, I mean the result would be awful for town, if we listened to you and this were the case.

[Robz888]

Frisk, I do understand what you're saying. But it's just too much of a leap for me, who doesn't know if you're scum.

[Cuzz]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

[Insomniac]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

If someone claims cop I'm lynching them first. (This setup cannot have a cop)

[Cuzz]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

If someone claims cop I'm lynching them first. (This setup cannot have a cop)

Damnit Insomniac, you spoiled my trap!

(kidding. I guess I meant rolecop/other investigative role/I'm an idiot for not reading setup)

[Robz888]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

If someone claims cop I'm lynching them first. (This setup cannot have a cop)

Shhh! Don't tell them.

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

[Robz888]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

But I lean toward thinking they ARE lying...

[Captain_Frisk]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

But I lean toward thinking they ARE lying...

I've already told you that you're wrong.

[Robz888]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

But I lean toward thinking they ARE lying...

I've already told you that you're wrong.

I know, and I respect that position! But you would tell me that even if you were lying, you know?

[Captain_Frisk]

Perhaps you should consider discarding the tunnel for gold instead, and try scum hunting in the other pool. 

For all the abuse of Grujah and I for lurking, why have you given sparky a pass?

[Cuzz]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

But I lean toward thinking they ARE lying...

I've already told you that you're wrong.

I know, and I respect that position! But you would tell me that even if you were lying, you know?

People can lie about the fact that they're not lying? What kind of crazy ass game is this anyway?

[Robz888]

Perhaps you should consider discarding the tunnel for gold instead, and try scum hunting in the other pool. 

For all the abuse of Grujah and I for lurking, why have you given sparky a pass?

Well, he was lurking less than the two of you when I last did a post count, a bajillion posts ago. Since then, yes, he has lurked like crazy relative to you guys. He's lucky he hasn't earned more scrutiny sure.

What do you want me to say? Anyone could be scum. And as this day has warn on, I have gotten drastically less sure of my reads (relative to Grujah, Frisk, Cuzz, O, and Jo), and we've possibly outed 3 prs (or just 1). So from my perspective things have gotten bad, and now we are willingly revealing our roles, probably at the request of scum.

Great!

[Robz888]

I might as well mention something else that has really, really rubbed me the wrong way: Jotheonah's enthusiasm for this massclaim. He just loved Frisk's plan to out every PR. If Frisk is actually not scum, I could easily see Jo being scum. If Frisk and Grujah are scum, perhaps Jo is their third.

[Captain_Frisk]

It does kill me that Jo is on my side.

[Insomniac]

Robz what is the downside for town of a massclaim at this point? 3 PRs have claimed so if Frisk or Grujah are not lying there's a lot of NK targets and protection WIFOM. If I'm the only one not lying, then I'm dead tonight no matter what. Even if someone claims cop scum have to kill the protective role first.

DING DING DING!  (Except for the cop thing)

But I lean toward thinking they ARE lying...

I've already told you that you're wrong.

I know, and I respect that position! But you would tell me that even if you were lying, you know?

People can lie about the fact that they're not lying? What kind of crazy ass game is this anyway?

To be fair we know jo is lying because he hasn't used PINL all game!

No but seriously, Grujah is lying scum, Frisk I know you're claim makes it possible that Grujah ISN't lying but even with it. We can see the following rolls are true

H - Eevee
K - ashersky
TT - cayvie, pingpongsam


Now if we assume frisk isn't lying and at least one of the doctors is telling the truth then we have
H - Eevee
K - ashersky
TT - cayvie, pingpongsam
PP - Frisk, X (Where X is either Grujah or Cuzz)

now in a 13 player setup that leaves 6 unknown roles. Each role has a 10% chance of generating another protective roll

I don't feel like computing the odds that we have an additional doctor. But the chance that if there is another doctor it was assigned to Grujah or Cuzz is exactly 10%.

[Robz888]

Did Insomniac do that right? I'm not sure.

[Captain_Frisk]

Insomniac, they only role 7 times.  Cayvie and PPs aren't guaranteed to be TT.  You add VTs to make up for the discrepency between 13 - #scum - #prs.

[Robz888]

Did Insomniac do that right? I'm not sure.

I'm really bad at this sort of thing, but we don't know that cayvie and PPS were Ts, do we? They could have just been VTs added to the game after computation, right?

[Robz888]

PPE, I'm right.

[Robz888]

So if we knew total PRs, then we do, uh 7 minus total PRs = number of Ts. And then we could know the scum setup.

Hmm. Maybe we should do that.

[Captain_Frisk]

So if we knew total PRs, then we do, uh 7 minus total PRs = number of Ts. And then we could know the scum setup.

Hmm. Maybe we should do that.

And scum ALREADY know how many town PRs there are (+/- 1), because they can look at their own roles and reverse engineer it.  They only thing they don't know is whether or not they have a SK - and I think that as town - we want them to know.

[Robz888]

Ok, who hasn't claimed yet?

[jotheonah]

I might as well mention something else that has really, really rubbed me the wrong way: Jotheonah's enthusiasm for this massclaim. He just loved Frisk's plan to out every PR. If Frisk is actually not scum, I could easily see Jo being scum. If Frisk and Grujah are scum, perhaps Jo is their third.

The way I see it, at this point, scum is either Robz, Cuzz, X or Frisk, Grujah, X.

My hunch is it's Robz, and X is O. It nicely ties together all my theories. But it could go either way.

Re: the mass claim. Why focus on me? Cuzz is also for it. So is Frisk. O participated. This thing has town consensus behind it. And now you are refusing to go along with it. So be it, but we're not going to assume you're doing that for pro-town reasons.

What rubs me the wrong way is how dead sure you've been that Grujah is lying and Cuzz is telling the truth when there's no particular reason to believe it's not the other way around.

[jotheonah]

NVM, you're not refusing to go along with it. Anymore. And to answer your question, theorel.

[Robz888]

I'm really worried that this is the moment where spectators will say, "NO ROBZ! YOU WERE DOING SO WELL, AND THEY TRICKED YOU INTO MASSCLAIM! NOOOOO...."

I'm really, really worried scum are Grujah, Frisk, and Jo, and am about to look like an idiot. On the other hand, they are desperate to know this scum setup, which is something scum don't need to know, so... fine.

[Captain_Frisk]

theorel, sparky, RobZ, insomniac have all not claimed i think?

[Robz888]

......... I am a Tracker.

[jotheonah]

Oh, well than you lied about your VT claim. Lynch All Liars. 

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm really worried that this is the moment where spectators will say, "NO ROBZ! YOU WERE DOING SO WELL, AND THEY TRICKED YOU INTO MASSCLAIM! NOOOOO...."

I'm really, really worried scum are Grujah, Frisk, and Jo, and am about to look like an idiot. On the other hand, they are desperate to know this scum setup, which is something scum don't need to know, so... fine.

Disclaimer: I played a game with ehunt today on iso. 

He mentioned that he was following MXII closely.  I said I was ALSO following it closely, and that I look forward to discussing when it is over.

He said that the spectator topic is very loud.  That was the extent of the conversation.  (Oh - and I won) Hi Specs!

[Robz888]

I tracked ashersky last night. My result was: cayvie, ashersky.

After a lot of questioning the narrator as tow how someone could target himself, I deduce that this was because Eevee his behind ashersky. Therefore, my tracking actually tracked ashersky/Eevve, where as ashersky shot and killed cayvie, and Eevee hid behind ashersky.

This should explain my above-and-beyond claim that there is no Serial Killer, since I could account for all the kills.

Furthermore, Cuzz seemed confused at the start of Day 2 in the same way that I was, which is why his story about protecting Eevee made sense to me, because I was in a similar boat trying to reconcile my night action to the death toll on Day 2.

[Captain_Frisk]

......... I am a Tracker.

Of course I don't believe you, but if you are telling the truth, then obviously you want to hold off on disclosing who you tracked until after the claiming.

[Captain_Frisk]

PPE - DOH

[Robz888]

PPE - DOH

I thought of that, but no scum was actually going to be worried that I knew anything incriminating, since I was so resistant to even say anything.

[Robz888]

PPE - DOH

I thought of that, but no scum was actually going to be worried that I knew anything incriminating, since I was so resistant to even say anything.

And I suspect I mightbe a higher priority kill than you anyway, Mr. Jailkeeper, hence my hesitance.

[Captain_Frisk]

I tracked ashersky last night. My result was: cayvie, ashersky.

After a lot of questioning the narrator as tow how someone could target himself, I deduce that this was because Eevee his behind ashersky. Therefore, my tracking actually tracked ashersky/Eevve, where as ashersky shot and killed cayvie, and Eevee hid behind ashersky.

This should explain my above-and-beyond claim that there is no Serial Killer, since I could account for all the kills.

Furthermore, Cuzz seemed confused at the start of Day 2 in the same way that I was, which is why his story about protecting Eevee made sense to me, because I was in a similar boat trying to reconcile my night action to the death toll on Day 2.

Finally - only 2 deaths doesn't mean no serial killer, as I discussed a long time ago. 

I could have blocked the SK
I could have protected either the mafia or SK kill (obviously I didn't stop ashers kill)
SK could be bulletproof

[Robz888]

I tracked ashersky last night. My result was: cayvie, ashersky.

After a lot of questioning the narrator as tow how someone could target himself, I deduce that this was because Eevee his behind ashersky. Therefore, my tracking actually tracked ashersky/Eevve, where as ashersky shot and killed cayvie, and Eevee hid behind ashersky.

This should explain my above-and-beyond claim that there is no Serial Killer, since I could account for all the kills.

Furthermore, Cuzz seemed confused at the start of Day 2 in the same way that I was, which is why his story about protecting Eevee made sense to me, because I was in a similar boat trying to reconcile my night action to the death toll on Day 2.

Finally - only 2 deaths doesn't mean no serial killer, as I discussed a long time ago. 

I could have blocked the SK
I could have protected either the mafia or SK kill (obviously I didn't stop ashers kill)
SK could be bulletproof

I know that, as I said along time ago. But I think it makes the Serial Killer much less likely. Especially because I doubt the validity of all these claims.

[Captain_Frisk]

PPE - DOH

I thought of that, but no scum was actually going to be worried that I knew anything incriminating, since I was so resistant to even say anything.

And I suspect I mightbe a higher priority kill than you anyway, Mr. Jailkeeper, hence my hesitance.

I doubt it.  Tracker is a weak role, you have to catch the killer AND survive AND convince people. I can prevent a kill 2 ways.  Do you remember how we vetoed jailkeeper in M8 IMMEDIATELY? 

The serial killer (if there is one) might think differently though.

[jotheonah]

I'm really worried that this is the moment where spectators will say, "NO ROBZ! YOU WERE DOING SO WELL, AND THEY TRICKED YOU INTO MASSCLAIM! NOOOOO...."

I'm really, really worried scum are Grujah, Frisk, and Jo, and am about to look like an idiot. On the other hand, they are desperate to know this scum setup, which is something scum don't need to know, so... fine.

Disclaimer: I played a game with ehunt today on iso. 

He mentioned that he was following MXII closely.  I said I was ALSO following it closely, and that I look forward to discussing when it is over.

He said that the spectator topic is very loud.  That was the extent of the conversation.  (Oh - and I won) Hi Specs!

This doesn't surprise me at all. This is probably the most fun I've had at mafia since M-II.

Is it still possible that all claims are true at this point? Or is there definitely a liar now?

[Robz888]

PPE - DOH

I thought of that, but no scum was actually going to be worried that I knew anything incriminating, since I was so resistant to even say anything.

And I suspect I mightbe a higher priority kill than you anyway, Mr. Jailkeeper, hence my hesitance.

I doubt it.  Tracker is a weak role, you have to catch the killer AND survive AND convince people. I can prevent a kill 2 ways.  Do you remember how we vetoed jailkeeper in M8 IMMEDIATELY? 

The serial killer (if there is one) might think differently though.

Well, the strongman stuff diminishes your effectiveness a bit. Of course there's ninja kills to diminish me. BIt of a wash.

[Robz888]

I'm really worried that this is the moment where spectators will say, "NO ROBZ! YOU WERE DOING SO WELL, AND THEY TRICKED YOU INTO MASSCLAIM! NOOOOO...."

I'm really, really worried scum are Grujah, Frisk, and Jo, and am about to look like an idiot. On the other hand, they are desperate to know this scum setup, which is something scum don't need to know, so... fine.

Disclaimer: I played a game with ehunt today on iso. 

He mentioned that he was following MXII closely.  I said I was ALSO following it closely, and that I look forward to discussing when it is over.

He said that the spectator topic is very loud.  That was the extent of the conversation.  (Oh - and I won) Hi Specs!

This doesn't surprise me at all. This is probably the most fun I've had at mafia since M-II.

Is it still possible that all claims are true at this point? Or is there definitely a liar now?

We now have 6 claimants. All claims could still be true.

[Robz888]

Yeah, that's the truly scary thing: what if they are all true?

Or in other words: A Vigilante, Hider, Jailkeeper, 2 Doctors, and a Tracker walk into a bar. They don't catch any mafia and lose the game. Funny!

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm really worried that this is the moment where spectators will say, "NO ROBZ! YOU WERE DOING SO WELL, AND THEY TRICKED YOU INTO MASSCLAIM! NOOOOO...."

I'm really, really worried scum are Grujah, Frisk, and Jo, and am about to look like an idiot. On the other hand, they are desperate to know this scum setup, which is something scum don't need to know, so... fine.

Disclaimer: I played a game with ehunt today on iso. 

He mentioned that he was following MXII closely.  I said I was ALSO following it closely, and that I look forward to discussing when it is over.

He said that the spectator topic is very loud.  That was the extent of the conversation.  (Oh - and I won) Hi Specs!

This doesn't surprise me at all. This is probably the most fun I've had at mafia since M-II.

Is it still possible that all claims are true at this point? Or is there definitely a liar now?

Still legal.  We have "room" for 1 more claim.

The odds of the game rolling 7 power roles is 0.83%, but given that we have 3 (myself + the 2 deadones), the odds of having exactly 6 is ~7%, and the odds of having 7 is ~1.5%

[Robz888]

Yes. So I will take my chances on the least credible claim actually being false. We should lynch Grujah.

[Robz888]

To his scummates: Jo and Frisk perhaps,

Congrats, you got us to reveal our roles. Now die.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh - I will admit that RobZ's claim is plausible based on my night action target.

The specifics of his result are very interesting.  I'm actually inclined to believe it, because honestly I don't think I would have been savvy enough to remember to add Asher to the result of tracking someone who had been hid behind.

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

To his scummates: Jo and Frisk perhaps,

Congrats, you got us to reveal our roles. Now die.

Us?

[Robz888]

Oh - I will admit that RobZ's claim is plausible based on my night action target.

The specifics of his result are very interesting.  I'm actually inclined to believe it, because honestly I don't think I would have been savvy enough to remember to add Asher to the result of tracking someone who had been hid behind.

Unvote

It took an embarrassingly thorough amount of back-and-forth with Voltgloss for me to understand the result. I was convinced--wrongly--that bus driving had something to do with it.

[Robz888]

To his scummates: Jo and Frisk perhaps,

Congrats, you got us the townies with roles, one of which is meto reveal our roles. Now die.

Us?

Fixed that for me.

[Insomniac]

I whole-heartedly support the Grujah wagon but since it has been started we should finish the mass claim shouldn't we? I haven't claimed yet because no one has asked me to claim yet.

[Captain_Frisk]

To his scummates: Jo and Frisk perhaps,

Congrats, you got us the townies with roles, one of which is meto reveal our roles. Now die.

Us?

Fixed that for me.

Ummm... as far as I understand it, the only claims that were forced out thus far was yours, since you think that Grujah and I are scum.

Cuzz's claim however... who forced that out?

Vote Count 2-9
Cuzz (4): Grujah, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac

We need your claim, Cuzz.

[Robz888]

To his scummates: Jo and Frisk perhaps,

Congrats, you got us the townies with roles, one of which is meto reveal our roles. Now die.

Us?

Fixed that for me.

Ummm... as far as I understand it, the only claims that were forced out thus far was yours, since you think that Grujah and I are scum.

Cuzz's claim however... who forced that out?

Vote Count 2-9
Cuzz (4): Grujah, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Insomniac

We need your claim, Cuzz.

You're right, my mistake. You deserve to be able to gloat about convincing me to out my power role.

[jotheonah]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

[Robz888]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

[Robz888]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

Sorry, I'm getting mean. I need to take breather.

[Captain_Frisk]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

[Robz888]

If it matters to anyone, I suspect the mafia are either:

Grujah, Frisk, Jo

OR

3 of O, Insomniac, Theorel, and sparky

If there is a Serial Killer, I have a hard time fitting him into the first list.

[Robz888]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

[Captain_Frisk]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

In my head I assume that SK takes bulletproof, after O (i think) made a comment in M4 that the SK should always take bulletproof.  This stuck in my head because i had of course taken investigation immune (which was WORTHLESS) after seeing the power of cops previously, and being a mafia n00b.

[Insomniac]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

In my head I assume that SK takes bulletproof, after O (i think) made a comment in M4 that the SK should always take bulletproof.  This stuck in my head because i had of course taken investigation immune (which was WORTHLESS) after seeing the power of cops previously, and being a mafia n00b.

I don't know that that is true, I think that in this game strongman ninja is way more powerful than investigation immune, it makes you untrackable and unblockable as opposed to untrackable.

[Robz888]

Also, if you believe my claim, you can see why I would want to kill Grujah. If Grujah flips doctor, Frisk is town, Cuzz is probably town, we know exactly where to look next round. If Grujah flips scum, even better.

If we kill someone else, let's say sparky, what will happen? IF we don't win the WIFOM battle, I mean look I'm going to die. Grujah, Frisk, and Cuzz will all be alive, and the survivors will once again have to way this perilous decision of whether to trust them. If we answer that question now, I think it's better.

PPE I still think the SK would have been more likely take 1-shot immunity, even though all these doctors and JKing and tracking certainly makes strongman/ninja the better option.

[Captain_Frisk]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

In my head I assume that SK takes bulletproof, after O (i think) made a comment in M4 that the SK should always take bulletproof.  This stuck in my head because i had of course taken investigation immune (which was WORTHLESS) after seeing the power of cops previously, and being a mafia n00b.

I don't know that that is true, I think that in this game strongman ninja is way more powerful than investigation immune, it makes you untrackable and unblockable as opposed to untrackable.

Are you saying your kills are both Strong and Silent?  I read it as either or?

[jotheonah]

Also, if you believe my claim, you can see why I would want to kill Grujah. If Grujah flips doctor, Frisk is town, Cuzz is probably town, we know exactly where to look next round. If Grujah flips scum, even better.

If we kill someone else, let's say sparky, what will happen? IF we don't win the WIFOM battle, I mean look I'm going to die. Grujah, Frisk, and Cuzz will all be alive, and the survivors will once again have to way this perilous decision of whether to trust them. If we answer that question now, I think it's better.

PPE I still think the SK would have been more likely take 1-shot immunity, even though all these doctors and JKing and tracking certainly makes strongman/ninja the better option.

Yeah, I'm with you on the Gru lynch. And I'll even hammer once all the claims are in. Insom, you may as well claim.

[Robz888]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

In my head I assume that SK takes bulletproof, after O (i think) made a comment in M4 that the SK should always take bulletproof.  This stuck in my head because i had of course taken investigation immune (which was WORTHLESS) after seeing the power of cops previously, and being a mafia n00b.

I don't know that that is true, I think that in this game strongman ninja is way more powerful than investigation immune, it makes you untrackable and unblockable as opposed to untrackable.

Are you saying your kills are both Strong and Silent?  I read it as either or?

It's crystal clear to me from the intro post and mafia scum wiki that you choose to be 1-shot bulletpoor, or your kills are BOTH strongman and ninjaed.

[Insomniac]

BTW, while we're calculating worst case scenarios: I just looked through the setup and noticed the SK could ALSO have a Strongman kill.

You didn't know that already?

I didn't!

Yeah, whenever I mentioned strongman kills I was speaking about Mafia JOAT or SK. For me it was part of the calculus for there not being an SK, because if he chose those kills there would be less reason to think a kill would have been blocked last night.

In my head I assume that SK takes bulletproof, after O (i think) made a comment in M4 that the SK should always take bulletproof.  This stuck in my head because i had of course taken investigation immune (which was WORTHLESS) after seeing the power of cops previously, and being a mafia n00b.

I don't know that that is true, I think that in this game strongman ninja is way more powerful than investigation immune, it makes you untrackable and unblockable as opposed to untrackable.

Are you saying your kills are both Strong and Silent?  I read it as either or?

Nope, I could be reading this thing wrong, like I completely missed the part about 7 rolls. and I read it as a choice between EITHER 1 shot bullet proof OR strong/ninja kills and the slash could be interpreted either way. I should read the role pm....

PPE: go read the opening post. it's both

[Insomniac]

Also, if you believe my claim, you can see why I would want to kill Grujah. If Grujah flips doctor, Frisk is town, Cuzz is probably town, we know exactly where to look next round. If Grujah flips scum, even better.

If we kill someone else, let's say sparky, what will happen? IF we don't win the WIFOM battle, I mean look I'm going to die. Grujah, Frisk, and Cuzz will all be alive, and the survivors will once again have to way this perilous decision of whether to trust them. If we answer that question now, I think it's better.

PPE I still think the SK would have been more likely take 1-shot immunity, even though all these doctors and JKing and tracking certainly makes strongman/ninja the better option.

Yeah, I'm with you on the Gru lynch. And I'll even hammer once all the claims are in. Insom, you may as well claim.

Deal! I'm a VT

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, if you believe my claim, you can see why I would want to kill Grujah. If Grujah flips doctor, Frisk is town, Cuzz is probably town, we know exactly where to look next round. If Grujah flips scum, even better.

If we kill someone else, let's say sparky, what will happen? IF we don't win the WIFOM battle, I mean look I'm going to die. Grujah, Frisk, and Cuzz will all be alive, and the survivors will once again have to way this perilous decision of whether to trust them. If we answer that question now, I think it's better.

PPE I still think the SK would have been more likely take 1-shot immunity, even though all these doctors and JKing and tracking certainly makes strongman/ninja the better option.

Yeah, I'm with you on the Gru lynch. And I'll even hammer once all the claims are in. Insom, you may as well claim.

So that leaves Theorel and Sparky?  Who else?

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - I urge you to unvote.  If Grujah is telling the truth and we do have 6 PRs, then we can lose by lynching him.

Why do you guys view his claim as even remotely plausible as scum?  Would you ever drunk claim?

[Captain_Frisk]

Sparky - stop posting math problems and get in here.

[Robz888]

RobZ - I urge you to unvote.  If Grujah is telling the truth and we do have 6 PRs, then we can lose by lynching him.

Why do you guys view his claim as even remotely plausible as scum?  Would you ever drunk claim?

I absolutely will not unvote, how dare you.

He had no choice but to claim when he was drunk. He was drunk, and he needed to claim. In that lens, picking Doctor makes sense as a lazy, drunken scum claim. He didn't even know someone else claimed it! And you've turned this into a too stupid to be disbelieved sort of thing.

[Robz888]

But I'm not too happy to see that sparky was off in other places while we were discussing such important matters. Yeah, that's pretty scummy.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth - my #1 scumread - is threatening to hammer.

[Insomniac]

1 - ashersky - Vigilante
2 - Robz888 - Tracker
3 - Eevee - Hider
4 - Captain_Frisk - Jailkeeper
5 - cayvie - VT
6 - sparky5856 - ??
7 - jotheonah - VT
8 - Insomniac - VT
9 - Grujah - Doctor
10 - Cuzz - Doctor
11 - pingpongsam - VT
12 - O - VT
13 - theorel - ??

PPE: @Frisk - TBH I would drunk claim but as I've expressed in multiple QT's I personally don't ever fakeclaim, IF I was on the chopping block as town in Lylo I would fake claim Serial Killer when applicable. An example of this when I was scum and didn't fakeclaim is RMM1, I didn't tell the whole truth about my night actions, but I didn't lie about my role either. For the as town fakeclaiming serial killer see M4 Qt where I REALLY REALLY hoped it was what you had done.

[Captain_Frisk]

I would have done it too as town (or scum).  Unfortunately, I was the serial killer.

[Captain_Frisk]

In my head i keep serial killer and scum different.  Am I wrong?

[Captain_Frisk]

Vote: Sparky

[Grujah]

Blah, I am a Doctor, I breadcrumed it and everything. You are now trying to base a case on me being slightly intoxicated, which I find ridiculous.

Also, remmeber when I said I consider forced claims bad? You see what happens when we do it? Mafia knows very well who (if any) fakeclaimed and who didn't, we don't - they have such an upper than now.

Trying to catch up with the thread right now, I have some meaningful stuff to say but would like to do it all in one go when I read the rest too, would appreciate if I don't get lynched in meantime.

[Cuzz]

In my head i keep serial killer and scum different.  Am I wrong?

Mafia and sk are subsets of scum I think.

[Robz888]

If anyone ever says "but I breadcrumbed it!" again, I will policy lynch them.

[jotheonah]

Joth - my #1 scumread - is threatening to hammer.

The word is "offering," Frisk. I was offering to hammer. When the claims are over. If everyone still thinks the Grujah lynch is a good idea.

If I were scum, I would just have hammered.

[Robz888]

We generated so much thread reading today.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sorry - i read it as "I've made up my mind and I'm going to hammer his ass when this is through".

Thanks for the clarification.

[Captain_Frisk]

And sparky left without even saying hi.

[Insomniac]

And sparky left without even saying hi.

Yea, I am tempted to vote for him too what with being the obvious candidate based on who died, and lurking so hard except when called out for it, but I still like the Grujah vote a bit more.

[Grujah]

Firstly, I'd like to address Robz, as he seems to be

@Robz

Firstly, about me not knowing that Cuzz claimed Doctor before me; I stepped up with than info voluntarily - I had no reason to do so as scum. Yes, this is a WIFOM situation, but one where, if scum, I had no info about existance of JK, of which a lack of could put me in a very hot spot. You can now blame this too on me being slightly intoxicated and slipping or forgetting the setup, but jeez, you would be pushing it. I don't turn into a rambling idiot after 3-4 beers.

Secondly, you seemed to be convinced that PPP is so low that you almost completely write it off. When Frisk claims, why do you think it is so unconsiveable that there is PPP?
I mean, there is 5 possible scenarios you can consider:
Cuzz is town, I pulled Doc out of my ass, and I struck a very lucky strain as it turned out that there is JK!
Cuzz is town, I pulled Doc out of my ass, and Frisk came out and risked both of us by faking JK.
(both of these with me and Cuzz reversed).
There is actually PPP.
So, all these look more likely to you than PPP? When all others incudling me/cuzz being super-lucky that CF is JK or mafia double-bluffing and potentially exposing both?


Thirdly, now, you think that most likely both me and Frisk are scum. Now,
So, from your perspective:
We could both potentially flip either way. Me flipping either way only gives you indirect info about Frisk and Cuzz - nothing for that is 100% sure. Frisk, on other hand, flipping town gives indirect info, but flipping scum gives very much direct info that one of Cuzz or me is lying for sure.
Now - if you are so sure of us being a scumteam - isn't it more beneficial that you pursuit Frisk harder? Or do you just find me way more likely than Frisk? Not pushing Frisk, if Cuzz is not lying I than know that CF isn't either, and I think 2 scum lying and potentially both getting screwed is very unlikely.

Finally, you seem to defend Cuzz on basis of his D2 opening "Oh Good Lord" post - stating that he seemed confused, as you did. He was not confused, he was pretty much pretty sure about what happened. And even if he were, it would have no basis either way- he allegedly targeted a known Hider - there is nothing to be confused about, he knew exactly how hider would have died (or he knew whom mafia killed). I don't see how it was relevant at all.
And if we are back to stealing mafiascum "tells" again, they say that OGL is as much a scumtell as a doc tell.

----------------------
----------------------


All that said, I am pretty confident in Frisk towniness as it is fairly stupid for him to fakeclaim and potentially expose both him and Cuzz.

Robz's claim seems fakish in that that he a) gives out something that we already know - his claim "fits perfectly" liek Ozle's in MVI. He didn't say like "Ins didn't target anybody" and than Ins coming out and confirming, or "Frisk targeted that guy" and Frisk confirming. He just reconfirmed waht we already know b) it makes PPP even harder to believe, which strengthens his case.


Vote: Robz888

[Robz888]

I have no response to Grujah, except that I think him to be more likely mafia than Frisk, and his death will for me clear the matter up entirely.

I trust Cuzz's claim more, not for his Oh Good Lord, but for the totality of his several early posts, which mirror my own internal attempt to make sense of what happened.

For my claim, you're right that it's a "closed" claim. If I were town in your position, I would certainly distrust it.

[jotheonah]

Ahh that's a good point too. Damnit, Robz why are you so hard to read?

[Grujah]

I have no response to Grujah, except that I think him to be more likely mafia than Frisk, and his death will for me clear the matter up entirely.

Pro evade.
Care to explain, how does my death clear the matter "entirely"? I would think quite the opposite, that Frisk death can have that effect (but not for sure).

[Grujah]

Not for sure - meaning if he flips town it's not sure, if he flips scum it's sure.

[Robz888]

I don't think a world exists right now where you're not scum, but Frisk is.

[Robz888]

Also, if I'm wrong, I'd rather lose a Doctor than the only Jailkeeper. I think?

Honestly, you may be right here that it makes more sense to kill Frisk. But you're the one where all the voters are, and as I've said, I'm reasonably confident it's both or neither.

[Grujah]

I don't think a world exists right now where you're not scum, but Frisk is.

If you are what you claim you are, me flipping town, means there is Mafia JoaT so Frisk gets Strongman kill no matter what. You are back at square 0 (expect 2 PRs down and you are not sure about Cuzz).

[jotheonah]

Unless Cuzz is his scumbuddy, in which case he is sure.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bravo to scum if they get a claimed jailkeeper lynch.   

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-17

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Grujah
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

Posting quickly to say I'm VT.  Going back to read Grujah's large post.

[Captain_Frisk]

VOTE: SPARKY

Math homework never got anyone anwhere.  Forum mafia is why Barack Obama is in the whitehouse.

[theorel]

Alright so we have now: (if everyone is true)
Robz, Grujah, Frisk, Cuzz as PRs.  + our two dead PRs makes 6 PRs.  Unless sparky comes back and claims a role, we're at 1T roll of 7.  This means that we have 3 mafia + SK.  Nine town and I know I'm town, means that jo, Insom, Sparky and O are ALL SCUM.

Now as VT I KNOW that this is the only result of everyone telling the truth (unlike the claimants who can see alternative possibilities which include me as one of the scum).

Hmm...so if the claims are true, I would predict: O, Insom and jo as a scum-team with Sparky as SK.  I don't think this is the most likely scenario, but I'm not sure it fails completely.

Now, there's a chance that we lose if we lynch wrong.  Let's suppose for a moment that ALL CLAIMS are TRUE.  Just for example, let's suppose my above split is correct, and suppose we lynch Grujah.  Additionally suppose Sparky chose strong-man kill.  Finally, let's suppose that everyone accepts that it's either Robz-Cuzz-other, Grujah-Frisk-other, or 3/5 town claims.  I don't think those are unreasonable suppositions, please let me know if you disagree with any of them.
Now Sparky probably wants to kill a mafia, but he still doubts the Robz-Cuzz claims.  So let's say he chooses uniformly at random from the 6 non-Frisk players.  He has a 50/50 shot of hitting town.
Now, scum want to kill the SK.  They suppose that the SK is not a claimant, and choose between Sparky and myself with 50/50 shot of hitting the SK.
That's a 1/4 chance of gameover.  This seems pretty bad to me, but lets consider the other wrong choice we could make.

So, let's suppose that we lynch one of the 5 of the non-claimants.  Additionally, let's suppose that 2 claimants are lying (say Grujah-Frisk).  First, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum.  Now, if we hit scum, we come to a similar point tomorrow with totally different things to analyze, including NKs which will probably confirm one set of PRs, or various other possibilities.  I'll just say, if we hit scum we're in decent shape.
Suppose we are in the 60% probability of missing scum.
Then, the SK is realistically choosing from the whole remaining town, he has a 3/7 chance of hitting scum.
The scum are choosing from the non-claimants, with a 1/3 chance of hitting the SK.  (5 minus lynch, minus mafia team-mate)
So that's a 1/7 chance of gameover.  Within the 60% probability of a mis-lynch.  This is way better in the worst case.

So, I'm for lynching a non-claimant.  It's better in the worst case.  It's clearly better in the best-case (keeping 4 PRs alive is huge benefit).  It HAS a middle case (hitting scum while scum is lying about PRs).
The simplifications which might be misapplied here are:
1. I'm assuming Robz-Cuzz/Frisk-Grujah are lying as pairs rather than singly.  I think this is about a wash, because we might not have a SK in this case, but we have one more mafia off-claims.
2. I'm not considering the possibility that all 3 mafia have fake-claimed.  I just don't really believe that, sorry if that makes us lose.

Now, my preference here is O still, as he really is still suspicious...For some reason I don't find his OMGUS pro-town.  But I could go joth or Sparky.  Insomniac is still my least-suspected out of the non-claimants, so I think that would be more likely to put us in the worst-case scenario given fake claims.

Anyways, I think there's been strong support for both joth and sparky from the claimants.  Does that split along the same Robz-Cuzz v. Grujah-Frisk lines?  If so, I think town will be better served by lynching one of them than O informationally.  I lean sparky, since he's lurking if town.

[O]

O voting history:

Votes Robz
Shit happens
votes Grujah
shit happens
votes Theorel


Theorel voting history:
Votes O
Shit happens
votes O
shit happens
votes O even though i'm no longer remotely the most suspicious.

This is scummy tunneling, not town tunneling.

[jotheonah]

@theorel ... how did insomniac get a free pass?

[theorel]

@joth:
I'm not sure what you mean?  I don't think I'm giving him a free pass.  I just find him the least likely of the 4 of O, joth, sparky, Insomniac to be scum.

@O: I don't change my vote that often.  Also you last voted Grujah if I remember correctly (after stating that you would vote for no one but me, and stating with that vote that you suspected you accidentally quick-hammered again which would surely get you killed this time if you were wrong).
P.S. Whatever you may think, it's townie tunneling.  I still think you're the most likely scum, and especially given the possibilities above, I'm even more confident about it.  But, I understand that town might think that I'M scum, so I'm willing to help along a different lynch.

[Captain_Frisk]

Everyone is so confidently towny!

[sparky5856]

Just wanted to say that I had NO time to check mafia after I posted in General Discussion, very shortly after I posted I had family come visit so I left for a few hours. Today's been a long day, schoolwork all day mainly.

But I have a headache, and as I know that I'm Vanilla Townie, someone must be lying, but the big headache is determining who. I was inclined to believe there is not a SK based on the kills last night, but a thought, he may have chosen to no-kill as an attempt to throw us off. That seems silly though, is that smart play?

I wish I could say that I'm something else, but unfortunately I can't, why would a VT claim PR? If I WAS a PR things would make much more sense to me, but they do not. Don't attribute laziness to scuminess. As I said it's been a busy day.

[sparky5856]

UNVOTE: Grujah.

Safer to go after the townies than the PR's obviously.

[Robz888]

Just wanted to say that I had NO time to check mafia after I posted in General Discussion, very shortly after I posted I had family come visit so I left for a few hours. Today's been a long day, schoolwork all day mainly.

But I have a headache, and as I know that I'm Vanilla Townie, someone must be lying, but the big headache is determining who. I was inclined to believe there is not a SK based on the kills last night, but a thought, he may have chosen to no-kill as an attempt to throw us off. That seems silly though, is that smart play?

I wish I could say that I'm something else, but unfortunately I can't, why would a VT claim PR? If I WAS a PR things would make much more sense to me, but they do not. Don't attribute laziness to scuminess. As I said it's been a busy day.

Well, if you're VT, no one has to be lying about being a PR at least. Certainly people are lying on the whole.

[Robz888]

Alright so we have now: (if everyone is true)
Robz, Grujah, Frisk, Cuzz as PRs.  + our two dead PRs makes 6 PRs.  Unless sparky comes back and claims a role, we're at 1T roll of 7.  This means that we have 3 mafia + SK.  Nine town and I know I'm town, means that jo, Insom, Sparky and O are ALL SCUM.

Now as VT I KNOW that this is the only result of everyone telling the truth (unlike the claimants who can see alternative possibilities which include me as one of the scum).

Hmm...so if the claims are true, I would predict: O, Insom and jo as a scum-team with Sparky as SK.  I don't think this is the most likely scenario, but I'm not sure it fails completely.

Now, there's a chance that we lose if we lynch wrong.  Let's suppose for a moment that ALL CLAIMS are TRUE.  Just for example, let's suppose my above split is correct, and suppose we lynch Grujah.  Additionally suppose Sparky chose strong-man kill.  Finally, let's suppose that everyone accepts that it's either Robz-Cuzz-other, Grujah-Frisk-other, or 3/5 town claims.  I don't think those are unreasonable suppositions, please let me know if you disagree with any of them.
Now Sparky probably wants to kill a mafia, but he still doubts the Robz-Cuzz claims.  So let's say he chooses uniformly at random from the 6 non-Frisk players.  He has a 50/50 shot of hitting town.
Now, scum want to kill the SK.  They suppose that the SK is not a claimant, and choose between Sparky and myself with 50/50 shot of hitting the SK.
That's a 1/4 chance of gameover.  This seems pretty bad to me, but lets consider the other wrong choice we could make.

So, let's suppose that we lynch one of the 5 of the non-claimants.  Additionally, let's suppose that 2 claimants are lying (say Grujah-Frisk).  First, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum.  Now, if we hit scum, we come to a similar point tomorrow with totally different things to analyze, including NKs which will probably confirm one set of PRs, or various other possibilities.  I'll just say, if we hit scum we're in decent shape.
Suppose we are in the 60% probability of missing scum.
Then, the SK is realistically choosing from the whole remaining town, he has a 3/7 chance of hitting scum.
The scum are choosing from the non-claimants, with a 1/3 chance of hitting the SK.  (5 minus lynch, minus mafia team-mate)
So that's a 1/7 chance of gameover.  Within the 60% probability of a mis-lynch.  This is way better in the worst case.

So, I'm for lynching a non-claimant.  It's better in the worst case.  It's clearly better in the best-case (keeping 4 PRs alive is huge benefit).  It HAS a middle case (hitting scum while scum is lying about PRs).
The simplifications which might be misapplied here are:
1. I'm assuming Robz-Cuzz/Frisk-Grujah are lying as pairs rather than singly.  I think this is about a wash, because we might not have a SK in this case, but we have one more mafia off-claims.
2. I'm not considering the possibility that all 3 mafia have fake-claimed.  I just don't really believe that, sorry if that makes us lose.

Now, my preference here is O still, as he really is still suspicious...For some reason I don't find his OMGUS pro-town.  But I could go joth or Sparky.  Insomniac is still my least-suspected out of the non-claimants, so I think that would be more likely to put us in the worst-case scenario given fake claims.

Anyways, I think there's been strong support for both joth and sparky from the claimants.  Does that split along the same Robz-Cuzz v. Grujah-Frisk lines?  If so, I think town will be better served by lynching one of them than O informationally.  I lean sparky, since he's lurking if town.

Theorel. I do appreciate this analysis, it's rather good. I will make a probably regrettable and dumb prediction that this is the type of analysis that is harder to fake as scum. Usually, I'm a big IIOA hater person, but this strikes me as rather good.

I will just add that from my perspective, there actually is a universe where Cuzz is the liar out of Grujah-Frisk-Cuzz, even though I am town, and you know we lose because me, essentially. I don't think it's a likely universe, but I'm making note of it. It's probably not going to sway anyone now to bring it up, but I did drive the wagon against Cuzz today fairly hard, until he claimed Doctor and I backed off. I don't really expect that to sway anyone, because it's easily a strategy I could have pursued if we were both scum, but I just wanted to remind everyone of it. Cuzz was who I intended for us to lynch, until he claimed and I diverted to Grujah.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok -

so thats all claims.

I Jailkept O.  Not able to catch anyone lying.  I thought about who I would kill if I was scum, and decided that I was most afraid of O locking on to me and abusing me. 

[sparky5856]

Robz, do you think that going after the VT's to search for scum is a safe way to go, or are you absolutely certain on there being scum in Grujah/Frisk?

Well, actually there's strongman kills, dang. I guess you're just going after your biggest scumreads as a whole right?

So Frisk now that everyone has massclaimed who's your prime target at this moment?

[Robz888]

If I were forced to pick between Theorel-O-Jotheonah-Insomniac-sparky.... I would not at present kill O. O is definitely the least scummy to me at this point. Or rather, he is the person among these that I am having the most trouble picturing as scum.

Any of the others (and really O too, but I have to eliminate someone) I could picture as scum. I suppose I would prefer to settle on sparky or Jo. This is a huge sea change in my opinion on Jo, who read mostly town to me, but... he was on board for one to many things I didn't like. Of course, he does strike me as town Jo, like in other games. Gar. Probably sparky is ultimately the best. Yes, I could see him as Serial Killer. Or a really quiet mafia.

But this would be predicated on the notion that I want to kill someone other than Grujah-Frisk, which... ack, I hate that I am being convinced. They are so darn hard to kill. I'm losing the argument with them. Should that make me try harder, or consider that I'm wrong? Wrong words, I'm already considering that I'm wrong--accept that I'm wrong. But if theorel's analysis is true, and I have little doubt it is, then we look at the non-PRs anyway.

So... sparky I guess. He was one of the trio of lurkers I mentioned a million posts ago. If Grujah and Frisk are truly what they say they are--and that's a fucking* big if for me--then absolutely sparky, yes.

*My first time using such colorful language on the forum. It felt right.

PPE: Okay.

[Robz888]

Robz, do you think that going after the VT's to search for scum is a safe way to go, or are you absolutely certain on there being scum in Grujah/Frisk?

Well, actually there's strongman kills, dang. I guess you're just going after your biggest scumreads as a whole right?

So Frisk now that everyone has massclaimed who's your prime target at this moment?

I am NOT absolutely certain that Grujah-Frisk are scum. Unless I say "I'm certain," I am never certain. Not counting PR help, I think I have been certain of something exactly twice in mafia. (That Jo was scum in RMM1, and Volt was scum in BMMM.)

[Robz888]

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

So - slight modification to previous plan.  "Doctors" should randomly protect one of other PRs.

I'll also randomize my protection / blocking, but weighted towards protection of claimed PRs.

As for scumread sparky, I say you.

[jotheonah]

I think it's time for us all to think hard and vote our conscience.

I was really hoping there would be an obvslip that would cement this one, but there has not been.

So I'm going with Vote: Robz.

I 100% believe Robz can fool me. I agree with Grujah that his no-new-info claim is somewhat convenient. And Robz being scum fits for me with his day 1 play also.

[Robz888]

If not sparky, Jo. The thing about Jo that I have to keep remembering here... he has been AWFUL jumpy. Earlier today he was convinced me-O were scumbuddies. Then eventually I found him supporting the Grujah lynch. Then Frisk and I really started clashing, and he was like convinced by everything Frisk was saying. Then I saw him later say something like, "Okay, let's hammer Grujah."

On one hand, I don't want to give him too much trouble for this. I have moved around my suspicions--a lot!-- today. In many ways, I feel like Jo's thinking is a faster, looser version of my own.

On the other hand, a faster and looser version of my thinking is probably exactly how a scum Jo plays here. He's trying to appear like a good, solid scumhunter, like the experienced veteran he is.... but he's just a touch too triggerhappy, because at the end of the day he just needs to get somebody killed.

PPE: And look at that!

[Robz888]

Now I have to decide whether scum Jo would be brave enough to take me on at this moment. I'm not sure...

[jotheonah]

Um, at the end of the day town needs to get someone killed too. I guess I could support a sparky lynch? I don't like how he managed to make himself the last claimant by lurking all day. And I could see him as either team's partner.

The problem is, what do we learn from a sparky lynch? Not bloody much.

[Captain_Frisk]

My problem with lunching on RobZ is his claim.  It's aggressive because its counter claimable, and he had the details right regarding tracking on asher.  I'm not saying this clears him, but its certainly a stronger claim than Cuzz, who claimed a role that would only be counterable via 2 other claims.

[Captain_Frisk]

Um, at the end of the day town needs to get someone killed too. I guess I could support a sparky lynch? I don't like how he managed to make himself the last claimant by lurking all day. And I could see him as either team's partner.

The problem is, what do we learn from a sparky lynch? Not bloody much.

What do we learn from a RobZ lynch that's different from a sparky lynch?

[Captain_Frisk]

I can't believe I'm defending robz right now.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - my thoughts:

Sparky: lurker.  Explicitly avoided coming in here.  Could have popped in and said "hey i'm vt, busy with math homework laterz"

Taking his time makes me think that he had to think long and hard about what to say.

Joth: He started this whole rolefishing escapade.

[jotheonah]

Um, at the end of the day town needs to get someone killed too. I guess I could support a sparky lynch? I don't like how he managed to make himself the last claimant by lurking all day. And I could see him as either team's partner.

The problem is, what do we learn from a sparky lynch? Not bloody much.

What do we learn from a RobZ lynch that's different from a sparky lynch?

I think the timing of the claims suggests partnerships - you claimed JK at a time when it would save Grujah, Robz's support of Cuzz over Gru (though not so much his claim) and his urgency to hammer Grujah rather than massclaim suggests a Robz-Cuzz team. So lynching any of those 4 tells us a lot.

Basically, Robz has interacted extensively with everyone -including, also, myself and O.

sparky has interacted with almost no one. No fights, no claims, no hammers - nothing that ties him to anyone else.

[sparky5856]

I didn't want to be the last claimant, and I questioned before why scummiest claim first, because scum have fewer trickier options to claim as once everyone else has claimed. That put me in an unfair position imo given that I'm town.

But ack, that's what I get for letting real life intrude too much. If we lose it'll be because of me, that's perfect. >_<

Ok - my thoughts:

Sparky: lurker.  Explicitly avoided coming in here.  Could have popped in and said "hey i'm vt, busy with math homework laterz"

Taking his time makes me think that he had to think long and hard about what to say.

I literally had no time.

[sparky5856]

Okay let's fight.

VOTE: O

[Robz888]

I FIGURED IT OUT.

Jotheonah and sparky are both mafia.

How do I know? Just now, Jotheonah tried to redirect the lynch to me, rather than sparky. He never voted for sparky. He's voted for, like, everybody. But not sparky (it's mutual, fyi).

I think we got them. Who does everybody prefer?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-18

O (2): theorel, sparky5856
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Insomniac
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Grujah
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: O, Robz888

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

RObz, please tell me what we learn from a sparky flip.

I will tell you why I've never voted sparky (btw, I've also never voted Insomniac. he must be the third teammate!)

It's because I don't vote for lurkers, in general. I vote for people who engage in behavior that makes me think they're scum. Not just mildly suspect, like, I have to be able to put together a narrative.

And I haven't had that read on sparky all game. I've had no read on him, basically.

[Robz888]

Vote: Jotheonah

I think.

[sparky5856]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

[sparky5856]

Now I see why everyone is annoyed when I'm not here. The heart of mafia is engaging, and waiting for the others to give unique feedback sucks.

[Robz888]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

[Cuzz]

Something to consider. Thoughts are currently an amorphous cloud so walk with me here and see if I make an actual point:

Earlier today, I had the thought, "Man what if all the claimed PR's really are telling the truth?" I also thought "Who are the people most likely to be putting off claiming? Probably scum, and any PR's left, right?"

Then we got into a lot of discussion about possibilities of the setup based on what people claim, who's lying, etc. There was a lot of analysis done here, most of which I skimmed to reread later, which of course I haven't done yet. But here's the thing, if it was the case that all the PR's are telling the truth right now, that's bad for scum. If they were not among those who had already claimed, it was becoming harder and harder to cook up a plausible PR fakeclaim. There was too much analysis out there, and too much information to be gained from night actions to be sure they couldn't be contradicted, and not enough NK's to off those who could do the contradicting.

So here's my point. Say that Grujah, Frisk, Robz are all telling the truth (and of course I am as well). Then among those left to claim, a PR would claim truthfully, and the only safe thing scum could do at this point would be to claim VT.

Last 3 to claim:

Insomniac: VT
theorel: VT
sparky: VT

PPE: I'm behind a bit, sorry if this is interrupting something important.

[Robz888]

Yeah. Well, I can get behind killing either Jotheonah or sparky. I truly suspect they are both scum.

Or it's Grujah, blah, I've already covered that.

[jotheonah]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

You're begging the question. What's my town incentive to "sell him out." I've said why I think he's a bad lynch and you refuse to respond to it.

[jotheonah]

Anyway, if I'm scum why didn't I just hammer Grujah?

[jotheonah]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

I feel like I didn't explain well why this is stupid. Basically it assigns me a scum thought process in the event that I'm town - hence begging the question. He says I ought to have voted sparky and didn't and this makes me scum. Why ought I have voted sparky? Because it's the most viable lynch (everyone else is teamed up, apparently). But town doesn't pick a lynch that way. Only scum does.

[sparky5856]

Ummmm.... hold on.

Ok, seriously guys. We are frittering away our spare deadline time by not talking and dense theory talk.

PPS said/did something scummy. He hasn't offered an even moderately convincing defense. We all sort of agreed to wait on that lynch while we discussed things, but I don't feel we're accomplishing much.

I would suggest we "Fake Hider Target Claim" and then lynch PPS.

I know lots of people will say I'm scummy for trying to rush us into a Day 1 lynch. But I think it's anti-town to wait for the sake of waiting, especially with bankable deadlines, and I, for one, don't have much else to say. Thoughts?

Pushing that anti-town actions are bad when pushing for anti-town actions have cost us this game.

Alternately, scum is sitting on the sidelines bashing the wagon without offering a constructive alternative.

Hinting? He and O vote each other shortly after.

Robz, that's L-2. We're setting up a scum quickhammer scenario, midday on a Sunday. That just seems wrong. Overcautious unvote.

Overcautious for a reason.

Fine, Robz. I don't trust you at all, mind you, but you make a good point.

Vote: O

Gonna go on record and say if O flips town I'm going after you, Robz.

...but overconfident that he wouldn't get hammered THAT early in the day.

dude the case SAYS you're scum. If you are scum, that's a feature, not a bug.
Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O. Vote: O.

Talk about the most epic bus in the history of busses. Remember THAT little bit?

So an O-joth scumteam I can actually see now. It's not the only possible one mind you, but it's a possible one. The one that's jumping out the most to me right now.

THEOREL IS TOWNISH
INSOMNIAC IS TOWNISH

So where's the last scum. One is lying among-st the power roles then, I can assure that. Probably Grujah. Explains why joth didn't hammer.

Unfortunately everyone thinks I'm so scummy now that these reads are almost worthless. >_<

[Insomniac]

Quick update as I'm busy with the girlfriend, would not vote jo, would lynch sparky. Still prefer Grujah based on gut read but respect theorel's analysis.

[sparky5856]

I may not be here until evening tomorrow, I might as well make that announcement.

Something I should note to myself is that if joth goes after me now, it's only because I called him out, and that I'm a threat to him now.

[jotheonah]

what is this I don't even.

If I were to go after sparky now, it would be either because I think he's scum or because (and I really hope it doesn't come to this) the only other option is being lynched, in which case it's always better to support an unknown candidate over one one knows to be town (oneself).

I, however, would prefer to lynch a claimant, because I think their flips are the most informational. The claimant I would most prefer to lynch is Robz.

If we must lynch a claimed VT reasons, I would choose theorel. He's by far my scummiest non-claimed player.

[Cuzz]

what is this I don't even.

If I were to go after sparky now, it would be either because I think he's scum or because (and I really hope it doesn't come to this) the only other option is being lynched, in which case it's always better to support an unknown candidate over one one knows to be town (oneself).

I, however, would prefer to lynch a claimant, because I think their flips are the most informational. The claimant I would most prefer to lynch is Robz.

If we must lynch a claimed VT reasons, I would choose theorel. He's by far my scummiest non-claimed player.

What's your case against theorel?

[jotheonah]

It goes way back to day 1. He started all the hider talk and then the hider turned up dead. I theorized perhaps he was gauging reactions. There were posts of Eevee's that could have given him away to a scum thinking along a certain line.

[Grujah]

With theo's post, this came up to my mind:

If Robz is not lying about his role (nor Cuzz is), meaning that there is SK, he either
a) targeted O or Insomniac (and took 1ShotBP as power); or Eevee; or ashersky or cayvie (and doublekilled with mafia or Vig)
b) is O
c) Took 1ShotBP and was target of mafia, but killed ashersky.
d) killed ashersky, and mafia shooter was O

Any other scenarios I am missing?

(all assuming no Bus Driving, that drives me mad)


Correct me if wrong somewhere. Gotta run now.

[Grujah]

(inb4 "SK hunting is scummy")

[theorel]

Alright, I think joth or sparky will be informative.  I'm not sure which I prefer...I'm deciding between trusting Robz or Frisk, Robz is supposedly willing to go either way, but prefers joth.  Frisk, I believe prefers Sparky.
joth thinks I'm the scummiest non-claimer, agreeing with O.  Sparky is willing to vote for joth, claims to have town-reads on myself and Insomniac.
I think if all the claims are true (or all but 1) joth is the likelier mafia (i.e. Sparky seems more likely SK in this scenario to me)
I think if 2 claims are false, Sparky is likelier mafia (teamed with Robz-Cuzz for teamwork, or Frisk-Grujah if bussing).

Since I think all or all but 1 are the more likely scenarios, I'm going to Vote: jotheonah.  (Note: if all-but-1 PR claims are true then Sparky is NOT SK, since there is no SK)

@Grujah I think your analysis is correct.  I think it points to the idea that there are many ways a SK could exist, which is sufficient to not force a PR claim to be false.  I don't think it's worth it to try to hunt down the SK today, I think we're best served by trying to hit mafia and seeing what happens tonight.  The only way we lose before tomorrow is if our lynch flips town, scum kills SK, and SK doesn't kill scum.  If scum is SK-hunting then our pro-town PRs stand a better chance of survival.

[Captain_Frisk]

Anyway, if I'm scum why didn't I just hammer Grujah?

That question applies to everyone not on the grujah wagon, so you don't exactly get a pass.

[Cuzz]

It goes way back to day 1. He started all the hider talk and then the hider turned up dead. I theorized perhaps he was gauging reactions. There were posts of Eevee's that could have given him away to a scum thinking along a certain line.

This just seems a teensy bit weak for it to constitute your biggest scum read among the claimed VTs. This is worse than sparky's lurking? Or O's D1 move which you used to have such a problem with?

Theorel has seemed rather town to me all game.

[Cuzz]

Anyway, if I'm scum why didn't I just hammer Grujah?

That question applies to everyone not on the grujah wagon, so you don't exactly get a pass.

There's also the trivial answer that Grujah is scum too.

[Robz888]

Nothing will annoy me more than Grujah turning out to be scum after all. If Grujah and Frisk are scum, well played.

If it's just Grujah, this is ALL on Frisk!

[Captain_Frisk]

I'll own it.  I'll even update my profile to say "Mafia XII was all my fault" for a few days.

[Robz888]

Okay, can we lynch already? I'm not paying attention to the time, so I don't know if we're eating up our clock--and the discussion over the last IRL day or so was definitely worth it--but I'm loathe to delay this for much longer, and I can't imagine going in a drastically different direction at this point.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-19

O (1): sparky5856
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Insomniac
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Grujah
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk
jotheonah (2): Robz888, theorel

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

I think i'm still voting sparky, although a current vote count would help.

Vote: Sparky

I can be convinced to vote Joth as well, but if we mislynch and we're @ lylo tomorrow, I think i'd rather have be wrong and have joth around, than be wrong and have sparky around.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ninja'd

[Robz888]

I think i'm still voting sparky, although a current vote count would help.

Vote: Sparky

I can be convinced to vote Joth as well, but if we mislynch and we're @ lylo tomorrow, I think i'd rather have be wrong and have joth around, than be wrong and have sparky around.

On the other hand, I am much more afraid of Jo in the end game, than of sparky.

[Insomniac]

Vote: Sparky

Seems our lynch has to be on one of the two, I'd rather have it here than on Jo.

[Insomniac]

Also according to our last vote count we have dwindled down to 11 days.

[Robz888]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

[Insomniac]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

Robz...you've had some pretty bad ideas in the past but this one takes the cake, right now I'm going with the assumption that at least one claimant is lying. Now because of THEORELS analysis, we decided it's probably best to lynch a VT claim. and now you the one who drove a wagon on not one but TWO DOCTORS, is saying that we shouldn't listen to the opinions of VT's? Get off your high horse, you're just as likely to be the liar as anybody else.

[O]

I'd like to point out that pretty much everyone except Insomniac has atttempted to lynch me several times. I'd also like to point out that some of our claims (likely one) are very likely lying, and that YOU'RE ALL UNWILLING TO LYNCH THEOREL. WHY?!

Of course I have advantage of knowing that I'm town which makes Theorel scummy as fuck, but Theorel is by far scummier than Joth and Insomniac to me. not as sure about sparky.

[Robz888]

But... by any measure there are more mafia in the non-claimant pool than in the claimant pool, right? Unless you think the claimant pool has two mafia, which is something I no longer think (Frisk convinced me).

I think it still could be true that either Grujah or Cuzz are lying, just one of them. If so, that leaves 2 mafia among... well, among 5 people, my mistake. So I think Insomniac, Jo, Theorel, Sparky, O have 2 mafia (possibly 3). I'm just saying that a lot of these people are going to be misdirecting us.

Maybe I'm not saying anything, I guess, because I don't know whether Grujah is trying to misdirect me, or whether Cuzz is (he's creeping up a bit more on my suspicions, it's just his comments, his claims till seems stronger).

[Captain_Frisk]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

Wrong.  If exactly one of us is lying (hint: Cuzz) then there are only 3 scum in the game.  That would only leave 2 mafia remaining among (J, O, T, S, I). 

[Captain_Frisk]

Also note - sparky is out for the at least a day i think.  Unless we lynch O, his vote doesn't count if we're going to try to lynch reasonably soon.

[Robz888]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

Wrong.  If exactly one of us is lying (hint: Cuzz) then there are only 3 scum in the game.  That would only leave 2 mafia remaining among (J, O, T, S, I).

IF one of us is lying. I don't know that that's the case. And we disagree on Cuzz/Grujah, although not as starkly as we used to.

But I do believe you are the Jailkeeper now--if you're scum, I'll never forgive you, ugh--which means you're the only person I can trust for sure, so I would at least like to agree with you on a target, and we need to agree soon.

[Robz888]

Also note - sparky is out for the at least a day i think.  Unless we lynch O, his vote doesn't count if we're going to try to lynch reasonably soon.

I don't want to lynch O. I think O is least scummy of the non-PR claimants.

[Insomniac]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

Wrong.  If exactly one of us is lying (hint: Cuzz) then there are only 3 scum in the game.  That would only leave 2 mafia remaining among (J, O, T, S, I).

IF one of us is lying. I don't know that that's the case. And we disagree on Cuzz/Grujah, although not as starkly as we used to.

But I do believe you are the Jailkeeper now--if you're scum, I'll never forgive you, ugh--which means you're the only person I can trust for sure, so I would at least like to agree with you on a target, and we need to agree soon.

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

[Captain_Frisk]

I literally had no time.

Enough time for:


A math problem

I guess we can use this thread to talk about anything math-related, cause math is fun amirite?

But while I do think math is fun, I'm stuck on a concept involving strong mathematical induction. Specifically, I'm trying to prove inequalities such as 2n + 1 ≤ 2ⁿ. Anyone know how to approach this? I know the base case (for n = 3), it's the induction step that I'm stuck on.

A post at 9:30 saying that you know you should be looking for scum:

...maybe <.< I know I know, I should be finding the scum. That's much more fun.

Hey, there's gotta be some gateway thread into the fun world of maths.

And finally your VT claim - an hour later

Just wanted to say that I had NO time to check mafia after I posted in General Discussion, very shortly after I posted I had family come visit so I left for a few hours. Today's been a long day, schoolwork all day mainly.

But I have a headache, and as I know that I'm Vanilla Townie, someone must be lying, but the big headache is determining who. I was inclined to believe there is not a SK based on the kills last night, but a thought, he may have chosen to no-kill as an attempt to throw us off. That seems silly though, is that smart play?

I wish I could say that I'm something else, but unfortunately I can't, why would a VT claim PR? If I WAS a PR things would make much more sense to me, but they do not. Don't attribute laziness to scuminess. As I said it's been a busy day.

A quick: hey I'm VT takes far less time than any of those posts.

Are you claiming you didn't even OPEN the thread?

[Robz888]

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote


If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

[Robz888]

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

FIXED

If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

[Robz888]

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

FIXED

If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

Damn it, whatever, you get the point.

[Robz888]

Well that was absurd.

[jotheonah]

Robz, this is like the third time youve impatiently cried "Let's lynch X already!" when the discussion is far from over. You've yet to respond to my allegations that your case against me makes no sense. All of this looks scummy.

[O]

But... by any measure there are more mafia in the non-claimant pool than in the claimant pool, right? Unless you think the claimant pool has two mafia, which is something I no longer think (Frisk convinced me).

I think it still could be true that either Grujah or Cuzz are lying, just one of them. If so, that leaves 2 mafia among... well, among 5 people, my mistake. So I think Insomniac, Jo, Theorel, Sparky, O have 2 mafia (possibly 3). I'm just saying that a lot of these people are going to be misdirecting us.

Maybe I'm not saying anything, I guess, because I don't know whether Grujah is trying to misdirect me, or whether Cuzz is (he's creeping up a bit more on my suspicions, it's just his comments, his claims till seems stronger).

I agree with towns consensus/theorel's analysis that we should be lynching VT claims. I just don't understand why Theorel is getting such a pass, from both VT claims and PRs, and I was pointing out that there is very very likely >0 among the PRs, and they're not willing to lynch theorel either.

[Insomniac]

Vote: Robz for making really bad logical arguments that Frisk the one person Robz claims he can trust says are wrong, and telling everybody to stop playing the game that isn't Frisk or himself. I signed up to play the game Robz, not to be told what to do. So buddy up to Frisk all you want.

Driving a wagon on 2 doctors is just the icing.

[jotheonah]

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth, do you disagree with theorels analysis?

[jotheonah]

theorel's analysis is about playing an odds game. But this far into the game, I'm not really all about playing an odds game when I have a clear scum read. And I do. So in that sense, yes I do disagree.

Also, it helps that I don't trust theorel at all.

[Robz888]

Robz, this is like the third time youve impatiently cried "Let's lynch X already!" when the discussion is far from over. You've yet to respond to my allegations that your case against me makes no sense. All of this looks scummy.

Becuase we have a time limit, and we need to allow a lot of time for tomorrow.

What are your allegations? You have been all over the place, man. With great enthusiasm.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth's redirect to RobZ feels like chainsaw to me.

Vote: Sparky 

I'm going to go do some work for a while and do my best not to refresh this thread.

[Robz888]

Vote: Robz for making really bad logical arguments that Frisk the one person Robz claims he can trust says are wrong, and telling everybody to stop playing the game that isn't Frisk or himself. I signed up to play the game Robz, not to be told what to do. So buddy up to Frisk all you want.

Driving a wagon on 2 doctors is just the icing.

What are the really bad logical arguments? Under every situation except the one where two PRs are lying, there are more scum in the VT pool. Therefore, it's somewhat harder to trust what the people in the VT pool are saying.

"Driving a wagon on 2 Doctors is just the icing." This has certainly become a talking point. A ridiculous one. You think I knew they were Doctors? How? Why would I want them exposed, if they were? Lots of people, including you and Jo, were equally convinced Grujah was a good lynch, even after his Doctor claim, you were still voting for him. So you did at one point share my view. However, Frisk's arguments--and theorel's analysis--have slowly won me over to the idea of going after the VT pool.

[Robz888]

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

The worst argument ever uttered for lynching someone.

[O]

Who says robz actually drove a wagon on two doctors, anyways?

I'm not one for scumslips, but...

[Captain_Frisk]

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

The worst argument ever uttered for lynching someone.

I lasted 2 minutes.  It's like "for" is just ingrained into my fingers when I open a browser window.

[Captain_Frisk]

Hey scum, its been a long day, why don't you just buss the crap out of sparky and we'll talk tomorrow?

[jotheonah]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

You're begging the question. What's my town incentive to "sell him out." I've said why I think he's a bad lynch and you refuse to respond to it.

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

I feel like I didn't explain well why this is stupid. Basically it assigns me a scum thought process in the event that I'm town - hence begging the question. He says I ought to have voted sparky and didn't and this makes me scum. Why ought I have voted sparky? Because it's the most viable lynch (everyone else is teamed up, apparently). But town doesn't pick a lynch that way. Only scum does.

[Robz888]

Hey scum, its been a long day, why don't you just buss the crap out of sparky and we'll talk tomorrow?

Why not Joth first? He's sputtering crazily--probably to rescue sparky, but possibly not--so I'd rather that lynch.

[jotheonah]

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

The worst argument ever uttered for lynching someone.

Why is this a bad argument? It says a couple of things, I'll break it down:

(A) Your power role is actually useless to us, because if you survive the night we won't have any reason to trust your results tomorrow, because we have no reason to trust you. This is not true of the other power roles.

(B) Beyond being useless, your claimed night action will create additional noise and confusion, actually harming the town.

[Insomniac]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

Wrong.  If exactly one of us is lying (hint: Cuzz) then there are only 3 scum in the game.  That would only leave 2 mafia remaining among (J, O, T, S, I).

Oh look bad logical arguments..

2/5 or 1/4   yes 2/5 is slightly higher if only 1 claimant is lying. IF you are really a tracker and I'm starting to highly doubt it then you of all people should know an SK definetly needs to fake claim something with a tracker around. so if there is an SK and I don't think there is he's definetly a claimant, which means I expect 1 liar if we have no SK and 2 if we do.

Let's continue down this path of your bad arguments shall we?

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

FIXED

If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

Damn it, whatever, you get the point.

Now I don't feel like digging it out but we both know you hate lurking and that is EXACTLY what you are promoting with this post, oh well I guess Robz can play the game I'm just a VT so what I have to say doesn't matter.

Yes I agreed with you on the Grujah wagon, guess what I still suspect if there is an SK it could be you or him because you too have the highest likliehood in my opinion of being the liars.

You continue to buddy up to Frisk, you made a closed tracker claim that can't be verified, you made a claim that could allow you to misdirect the town tomorrow setting your team up for a win and if you are scum you have all the reason in the world to push a lot of wagons, if you can get people to claim then you know how to direct your teams shots.

[Insomniac]

damnit I'll fix the last part

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

FIXED

If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

Damn it, whatever, you get the point.

Now I don't feel like digging it out but we both know you hate lurking and that is EXACTLY what you are promoting with this post, oh well I guess Robz can play the game I'm just a VT so what I have to say doesn't matter.

Yes I agreed with you on the Grujah wagon, guess what I still suspect if there is an SK it could be you or him because you too have the highest likliehood in my opinion of being the liars.

You continue to buddy up to Frisk, you made a closed tracker claim that can't be verified, you made a claim that could allow you to misdirect the town tomorrow setting your team up for a win and if you are scum you have all the reason in the world to push a lot of wagons, if you can get people to claim then you know how to direct your teams shots.

[jotheonah]

I really hate that you said I'm sputtering crazily. I think I'm making perfectly good points. What's crazy is we've all decided to suddenly believe all claims and lynch a claimed VT, despite that someone said there's only like a .085% chance of all claims being true, and if they are the town is probably screwed anyway!

It's much more likely someone's lying, and it's much more informative to find the liar. And the crazy sputterer here is Robz.

[Robz888]

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

You're begging the question. What's my town incentive to "sell him out." I've said why I think he's a bad lynch and you refuse to respond to it.

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Jotheonah should have known that with Frisk and I starting to trust each, Cuzz in my corner and Grujah in his, and Theorel up for a VT lynch... it's going to be Jo or O or Insomniac or you. Likely Jo or you. The fact that he didn't sell you out here makes me think you're both scum.

I feel like I didn't explain well why this is stupid. Basically it assigns me a scum thought process in the event that I'm town - hence begging the question. He says I ought to have voted sparky and didn't and this makes me scum. Why ought I have voted sparky? Because it's the most viable lynch (everyone else is teamed up, apparently). But town doesn't pick a lynch that way. Only scum does.

I can't see why you would NOT want to lynch sparky, unless you're scum. You were enthusiastic to lynch Grujah, you are now enthusiastic to lynch me... it looks to me like you just want to re-direct to a PR lynch.

[jotheonah]

BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE A SCUM READ ON SPARKY.

And I do very much have a scum read on you.

And that's how TOWN plays the game, Robz.

[Robz888]

BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE A SCUM READ ON SPARKY.

And I do very much have a scum read on you.

And that's how TOWN plays the game, Robz.

What's your scum read on me? Who are my scum buddies?

You're scum because you've been desperate to lynch one of the PR claims, but have been willing to do so on both sides--Grujah, when that was all but guaranteed, and now me-- and for tunneling O earlier when I really think O is town. Your scumbuddies are sparky and either Insomniac or theorel, or POSSIBLY Grujah.

[Robz888]

@Insomniac: Oh please, I'm not promoting lurking. Nonsense. A nonsense accusation.

If you think that there are 2 scum among the claimed PRs, then obviously you and I disagree, and you are correct to focus there. I, however, do not. I think the maximum scum among the claimed PRs is 1.

[Insomniac]

Great Robz, I guess the rest of us will just lurk then because we don't matter, way to encourage the behaviour that made you so furious earlier in the day.

Unvote

FIXED

If the scum would simply stop posting entirely, it would be a big help to me right now, yes.

Damn it, whatever, you get the point.

[Insomniac]

Sorry if what I'm about to say comes across as mean to some people.

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

I'm saying this because, really, Frisk, Grujah, Cuzz, and I need to come to a consensus, and then the person who knows himself to be town among Jo/Ins/Theorel/O/Sparky needs to just go with it.

Right?

If we're going with the "all the claims are real" plan--and hey, it looks like we are--we shouldn't actually be weighting the opinions of O, theorel, sparky, Jo, and Insomniac... because 4 of these people are scum. Really, we should pick the person of these 4 that the other 3 are least inclined to vote for.

[Robz888]

It's perfectly obvious what I mean, and this is a completely useless argument.

[Captain_Frisk]

I was wrong Insomniac.

With 6 PRs, we would have 4 scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

[Captain_Frisk]

Now I'm getting confused.  What is the intent of the bolded passage Insomniac?

[Insomniac]

I was wrong Insomniac.

With 6 PRs, we would have 4 scum.

If no claimant is lying... which you also said, and also it's assuming there isn't a gunsmith but since noone claimed that I guess there isn't as town wouldn't lie. So yes assuming no lying there is 4 scum among off the wagon.

I just know that IF we have 4 scum that means we have a serial killer. A serial killer would absolutely have claimed a PR. Which means there is 1 lying, but if there is one lying then there is no serial killer, which means ONE OR MORE PR's ARE LYING

[Insomniac]

Now I'm getting confused.  What is the intent of the bolded passage Insomniac?

he had it bolded originally I just made it larger because he is suggesting that the 5 of us shutup and lurk because 4 of us are scum, except as above I have shown that that CANNOT be the case. I'll explain my theory in a following post, also he had agreed that he was encouraging lurking.

[Robz888]

I was wrong Insomniac.

With 6 PRs, we would have 4 scum.

If no claimant is lying... which you also said, and also it's assuming there isn't a gunsmith but since noone claimed that I guess there isn't as town wouldn't lie. So yes assuming no lying there is 4 scum among off the wagon.

I just know that IF we have 4 scum that means we have a serial killer. A serial killer would absolutely have claimed a PR. Which means there is 1 lying, but if there is one lying then there is no serial killer, which means ONE OR MORE PR's ARE LYING

I don't think a Serial Killer would necessarily always claim a PR, especially because of the way things shook out here, with the claimers all claiming first. Like, if theorel or sparky are the SK, I don't think they would claim in this position.

Although I still think it's quite possible that Grujah--or maybe even Cuzz--is a lying scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

I look forward to understanding why 4 of those 5 could not possibly be scum.

Personally, I still favor the Cuzz + 2 others theory, but that still says I should focus on the non claimants (40% vs. 33%), and it should be moreso for any non claimant (50% vs. 25%)

[Captain_Frisk]

Also, serial killers would be on our side in this vote, unless we pick the serial killer, in which case mafia would be happy thinking that they are mislynching.

[Robz888]

I look forward to understanding why 4 of those 5 could not possibly be scum.

Personally, I still favor the Cuzz + 2 others theory, but that still says I should focus on the non claimants (40% vs. 33%), and it should be moreso for any non claimant (50% vs. 25%)

Jo, though. Will you vote Jo?

[Captain_Frisk]

No, No, No
I won't Vote Jo
I do not want to see him Go
Sparky Sparky Thats our Man
A vote for him is right on plan.

[Cuzz]

I was wrong Insomniac.

With 6 PRs, we would have 4 scum.

If no claimant is lying... which you also said, and also it's assuming there isn't a gunsmith but since noone claimed that I guess there isn't as town wouldn't lie. So yes assuming no lying there is 4 scum among off the wagon.

I just know that IF we have 4 scum that means we have a serial killer. A serial killer would absolutely have claimed a PR. Which means there is 1 lying, but if there is one lying then there is no serial killer, which means ONE OR MORE PR's ARE LYING

I don't think a Serial Killer would necessarily always claim a PR, especially because of the way things shook out here, with the claimers all claiming first. Like, if theorel or sparky are the SK, I don't think they would claim in this position.

Although I still think it's quite possible that Grujah--or maybe even Cuzz--is a lying scum.

Yeah I think that if there is an SK, if they happened to be among the last 3 to claim for example they would have found it quite risky to claim a PR. Moreso than claiming VT and risking being tracked.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sorry, too much dr. Seuss.

Why do you favor him so much more?

[sparky5856]

A quick: hey I'm VT takes far less time than any of those posts.

Are you claiming you didn't even OPEN the thread?

A quick: hey I'm VT was NOT the way to go. With no other details given whatsoever, who would believe that? I like to explain my positions so that they can be BELIEVED. If I'm not believed, then that's an huge unnecessary cost to the town.

Besides you all would have been like "hey he's been lurking, and he only said that he's VT? Why not BACK IT UP? ...oh yeah that's right he can't. He must be scum then."

I need to contribute to be useful, if not then I might as well be a spectator.

But eh it doesn't matter, I have 5 votes on me all from Frisk at this point I should be lynched >_<

UNVOTE: O. Nothing is happening there, there HAS to be scum amongst the talkers. Reading jo's response to me calling him out actually gave me more of a town feeling on him. I don't like suddenly switching positions... but I don't like that Robz has a WIDE pool of reads, I would like to be more precise than that at this moment. Added to the fact that he's wrong about one of his reads... spot which one it is.

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

The worst argument ever uttered for lynching someone.

Why is this a bad argument? It says a couple of things, I'll break it down:

(A) Your power role is actually useless to us, because if you survive the night we won't have any reason to trust your results tomorrow, because we have no reason to trust you. This is not true of the other power roles.

(B) Beyond being useless, your claimed night action will create additional noise and confusion, actually harming the town.

And this.

Also also the plan is not right
Clearly you are not too bright!

No that's not a good one...

Frisk oh Frisk man oh man
Why don't you get a good plan?

Now THIS is fun.

[Robz888]

Sorry, too much dr. Seuss.

Why do you favor him so much more?

1). He drove a wagon against O, who I suspect is town.
2). He agreed with the Grujah lynch, even after Grujah's Doc claim... but now has come around to wanting me dead. Grujah and Robz are mutually exclusive positions. It strikes me that he just wants PRs to die.
3). I don't know why he wouldn't pursue a VT now, after everything that's happened, and theorel's analysis.
4). He seemed like he wanted to protect sparky, which I agree probably makes sparky scum, too.
5). He wants me dead! He's arguing that the Tracker is negative utility to the town, when in reality, while there are dangers, it's certainly one way we could catch scum tomorrow. He just wants me lynched now rather than playing WIFOM with Doctors.

[Captain_Frisk]

I'm sorry sparky:

I may not be here until evening tomorrow, I might as well make that announcement.

Something I should note to myself is that if joth goes after me now, it's only because I called him out, and that I'm a threat to him now.

Why are you here?

[Robz888]

A quick: hey I'm VT takes far less time than any of those posts.

Are you claiming you didn't even OPEN the thread?

A quick: hey I'm VT was NOT the way to go. With no other details given whatsoever, who would believe that? I like to explain my positions so that they can be BELIEVED. If I'm not believed, then that's an huge unnecessary cost to the town.

Besides you all would have been like "hey he's been lurking, and he only said that he's VT? Why not BACK IT UP? ...oh yeah that's right he can't. He must be scum then."

I need to contribute to be useful, if not then I might as well be a spectator.

But eh it doesn't matter, I have 5 votes on me all from Frisk at this point I should be lynched >_<

UNVOTE: O. Nothing is happening there, there HAS to be scum amongst the talkers. Reading jo's response to me calling him out actually gave me more of a town feeling on him. I don't like suddenly switching positions... but I don't like that Robz has a WIDE pool of reads, I would like to be more precise than that at this moment. Added to the fact that he's wrong about one of his reads... spot which one it is.

I think we need to be lynching Robz.  Unlike the other claimed PRs, he's claimed an investigative role. Which means if he's alive tomorrow, he's the only claimed-PR who can actually be DETRIMENTAL to town, making up another tracker result to lead the town astray at the worst possible time.

The worst argument ever uttered for lynching someone.

Why is this a bad argument? It says a couple of things, I'll break it down:

(A) Your power role is actually useless to us, because if you survive the night we won't have any reason to trust your results tomorrow, because we have no reason to trust you. This is not true of the other power roles.

(B) Beyond being useless, your claimed night action will create additional noise and confusion, actually harming the town.

And this.

Also also the plan is not right
Clearly you are not too bright!

No that's not a good one...

Frisk oh Frisk man oh man
Why don't you get a good plan?

Now THIS is fun.

I don't understand a single word of this post, though.

[Insomniac]

Assume that the claimed PR's are all true. This means there is 4 scum, one of which is a serial killer.

Since a tracker, gunsmith etc could be in the game a serial killer would absolutely need to fakeclaim a power role. Which means at least one of the power roles is lying.

If exactly one of the power roles is lying then there is only 3 scum none of which are a serial killer. Which means 1 mafia among the power role claims and 2 among the non claims.

If exactly two are lying then there is 4 scum and TWO of them have fake claimed which puts the odds better to lynch a PR claim then a non pr claim (2/4 vs 2/5)

Therefore I can ONLY conclude that there is
a) No serial killer which means 2/5 vs 1/4 in which case I will pick a scum read over sheer odds
b) 2 or more scum fake claiming power roles which means the odds are better to lynch a power role claim and hey I have a scum read on Robz and Grujah so hey

So in both cases a and b it is better for me to lynch a claimant.

Captain Frisk - you're claim seems the most genuine to me it wasn't made under duress and unless both doctor claims are false you are telling the truth. In which case there is 3 scum among you Grujah and Cuzz.

Cuzz - His doctor claim seems the most credible of the doctors to me

Grujah - His doctor claim is the lesser credible doctor claim and was my best read until Robz started telling people how to play the game and making bad arguments

Robz - His claim was a closed claim, in a role that could be used to misdirect the town and is a totally viable claim for scum to make. Was my 2nd highest until the recent events.

So if I know that one or two of the claimants is lying Im picking Robz first and Grujah second.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sparky - if you're willing to make a mega post, who are you willing to lynch?

[sparky5856]

Once this day is over I'll be so glad. Maybe my incessant headache will go away by Day 3 and I'll create arguments that are actually worthwhile to town. This is not a good position though.

Can someone put together what alignment everyone thinks everyone else is? That would be really useful right now methinks.

I'm sorry sparky:

I may not be here until evening tomorrow, I might as well make that announcement.

Something I should note to myself is that if joth goes after me now, it's only because I called him out, and that I'm a threat to him now.

Why are you here?

[Insomniac]

Also it's important to note that I made the numbers in the spectator sense, you can obviously reduce some denominators if you know you're town, ie for a town non lying claimant its 1/3 or 1/2 in the case of 1/3 it's BARELY better to go for a VT and in the case of 1/2 it is MUCH better to go after a pr.

[Captain_Frisk]

That is a terrible argument insomniac.

#1 - presence of tracker / gunsmith doesn't require that SK fake claim, for the same reason that it doesn't require that scum fake claim.

If there's only 1 lying claimant, then your odds (assuming you're town) are that there are 2 scum in the non claimants (out of 4 - because you're town), and 1 lying claimant.

If ther eare 2 lying claimants, then we're back to 4 scum, and its 50 / 50 again for you.

If you're WRONG, then you result in the death of a PR if you target the claimants.

If you're wrong in the non claimants, at least its only a VT, and in sparky's case, one who hasn't contributed a whole lot.

[sparky5856]

Sparky - if you're willing to make a mega post, who are you willing to lynch?

Last time I made a megapost I was scum remember? Reason why Grujah pegged me last game, it had flawed bussing logic in the end of it. And giving away flawed logic is not the best position for me right now.

Let me compile a list of worthy candidates to lynch hold on.

[Robz888]

Assume that the claimed PR's are all true. This means there is 4 scum, one of which is a serial killer.

Since a tracker, gunsmith etc could be in the game a serial killer would absolutely need to fakeclaim a power role. Which means at least one of the power roles is lying.

But Eevee, ashersky, Cuzz, Grujah, Frisk, and me all had our powers revealed, in that order. If the SK is one of the remaining people (other than O, I think O claimed VT before I came out, yes?), they had to decide whether it was really worth the lie at that point. It's kind of an unlucky situation for them, and I could see a SK deciding to just roll the dice and stick with VT, and hope suspicion stays on PR claimants.

Speaking of which: Didn't you say, Insomniac, that you wouldn't claim a PR if you were scum?

[Robz888]

And does anyone seriously doubt that Insomniac is the Serial Killer at this point? Let's be honest, here.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-20

Grujah (1): Cuzz
Robz888 (3): jotheonah, Grujah, Insomniac
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk
jotheonah (2): Robz888, theorel

Not voting {2}: O, sparky5856

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Insomniac, did you take bulletproof or super kills? I really hope (for my sake) you took bulletproof.

[Robz888]

Really wish Grujah could sweep in here and unvote me...

[Captain_Frisk]

Insomniac can be the serial killer if he shoots Jo after we lynch sparky. 

[sparky5856]

WOULD LYNCH:
Robz888
Grujah
O (when was the last post by him?)
jotheonah (ehhh he's on the brink really)

WOULD NOT LYNCH: (this is more with certainty)
Captain_Frisk
Cuzz
theorel
Insomniac (wait...)

Ahhhh come on Insomniac has claimed PR as scum before. Also why would a SK talk so much about himself? ...unless he's going out of his way to protect himself? Is he under pressure?

Someone help me on him, I'm drawing multiple blanks.

[Insomniac]

That is a terrible argument insomniac.

#1 - presence of tracker / gunsmith doesn't require that SK fake claim, for the same reason that it doesn't require that scum fake claim.

If there's only 1 lying claimant, then your odds (assuming you're town) are that there are 2 scum in the non claimants (out of 4 - because you're town), and 1 lying claimant.

If ther eare 2 lying claimants, then we're back to 4 scum, and its 50 / 50 again for you.

If you're WRONG, then you result in the death of a PR if you target the claimants.

If you're wrong in the non claimants, at least its only a VT, and in sparky's case, one who hasn't contributed a whole lot.

If I was the SK consider when I claimed...AFTER all the PRs...I STILL would have fakeclaimed as serial killer. risking 2 people counter claiming is worth it, if someone else claims a PR there is just a huge confusion in the town and scum about whats going on.

And as to the part about 50/50, absolutely, but as I said I don't play a numbers game when it comes to finding scum, I'll play numbers with the distribution of scum but not when it comes to finding scum, I will always vote for a scum read over a town read. Which was also in my posts but I guess your not reading them fully.

Assume that the claimed PR's are all true. This means there is 4 scum, one of which is a serial killer.

Since a tracker, gunsmith etc could be in the game a serial killer would absolutely need to fakeclaim a power role. Which means at least one of the power roles is lying.

But Eevee, ashersky, Cuzz, Grujah, Frisk, and me all had our powers revealed, in that order. If the SK is one of the remaining people (other than O, I think O claimed VT before I came out, yes?), they had to decide whether it was really worth the lie at that point. It's kind of an unlucky situation for them, and I could see a SK deciding to just roll the dice and stick with VT, and hope suspicion stays on PR claimants.

Speaking of which: Didn't you say, Insomniac, that you wouldn't claim a PR if you were scum?

If I was mafia this is true. If I was SK I would fake claim in some scenarios. But also why would I say that this game if I was mafia, I would just let people draw their own conclusions. I did also say I wouldn't fake claim as town unless it was LyLo and I was at L-1

[Insomniac]

You guys are really thinking I'm the SK? You guys are ridiculous.

IM NOT THE SERIAL KILLER I'M A VANILLA TOWNIE

[Cuzz]

How many votes does sparky have on him now? It's tough to check on my phone.

[Robz888]

Okay well, Insomniac is the Serial Killer. Actually, killing the Serial Killer right now would be fine, right? Actually2, it's better.

Vote: Insomniac

[Cuzz]

Nvm. Jesus this game is moving fast.

[Robz888]

Nvm. Jesus this game is moving fast.

This game is breakneck insanity.

[Captain_Frisk]

[sparky5856]

Anyone feel confident enough to put Robz at L-1? WAIT

You guys are really thinking I'm the SK? You guys are ridiculous.

IM NOT THE SERIAL KILLER I'M A VANILLA TOWNIE

You're making a mistake. Calling us ridiculous and then bolding out what you want us to believe is not the way to go. How does Insomniac play as town everyone?

[Insomniac]

Okay well, Insomniac is the Serial Killer. Actually, killing the Serial Killer right now would be fine, right? Actually2, it's better.

Vote: Insomniac

Remember M3, Killing Jo D2 was the WORST mistake they made. but also I'm not the SK. and Robz stands to go into day 2 with all of his mafia buddies AND that means the town is in a horrible position, worse yet if there is a SK you could lose tonight by lynching me.

[Grujah]

Heh, unvote you, why for exactly?

You are still my #1. First you push PR lynches, won't consider actually possible things and going with theories where there are 2 scum both lying about their roles and basically digging their grave if one dies, and than when thing settles on that front you go along with even worse "let's just lynch any VT claim, doesn't matter, almost all are scum".

That, coupled with a closed claim that first stirred up more trouble by messing with numbers and now puts you, coincidentally, on the safe side of the "lynch VT" policy you are pushing.

I could be swayed to theo or sparky, but I'd like you the most. Jo I still don't suspect, I get his attacks on you but I think that they are wrong, Ins is a tad scummier cuz of PR L-1ing but I still don't think I'd lynch him. Frisk has done a stupid thing IMO with massclaim thing, but his claim is one that I trust as I don't see double doc/JK claim, especially as he could just claimed VT as scum and got me lynched immediately, so, no to Frisk lynch at all.
O is a mystery to me still, theo and sparky scummiest of VT claims (theo for O tunnel and constant theory), Cuzz I kinda forgot about but I am like 60/40 torn on lying/not lying.


PPE: 11 replies. JEEEEEZ.

@Cuz - sparky has 1.

[Grujah]

First part that starts "why unvote you" is towards Robz.

[Robz888]

Okay well, Insomniac is the Serial Killer. Actually, killing the Serial Killer right now would be fine, right? Actually2, it's better.

Vote: Insomniac

Remember M3, Killing Jo D2 was the WORST mistake they made. but also I'm not the SK. and Robz stands to go into day 2 with all of his mafia buddies AND that means the town is in a horrible position, worse yet if there is a SK you could lose tonight by lynching me.

Emphasis mine. I feel like him trying to remind us of this is pretty solid confirmation. Now can someone explain why killing the SK would not be preferable here? We have excellent leads on who the mafia are, and we have possibly three shots of protection. Taking one oft he nightkills out of the equation would be awesome.

[Cuzz]

Robz you are screwing with my strong town read on you by voting for a different person every half hour

[Captain_Frisk]

And yet he won't vote sparky.

RobZ - is sparky the JOAT?

[sparky5856]

Nvm. Jesus this game is moving fast.

This game is breakneck insanity.

WE'RE BLOODTHIRSTY

Yeah you know what, VOTE: ROBZ, I'm done with breakneck insanity. After Insomniac's

Okay well, Insomniac is the Serial Killer. Actually, killing the Serial Killer right now would be fine, right? Actually2, it's better.

Vote: Insomniac

Remember M3, Killing Jo D2 was the WORST mistake they made. but also I'm not the SK. and Robz stands to go into day 2 with all of his mafia buddies AND that means the town is in a horrible position, worse yet if there is a SK you could lose tonight by lynching me.

...Yeah guys MAFIA is what we want NOT SK. The thought of town lynching SK and losing because of it is breakneck insanity in itself.

[Robz888]

And yet he won't vote sparky.

RobZ - is sparky the JOAT?

I'll vote for sparky.

[Robz888]

Robz you are screwing with my strong town read on you by voting for a different person every half hour

No, people are screwing with my strong reads every half hour, causing me to change my vote.

[theorel]

Alright Robz, vote for Sparky.
Vote: Sparky

[Robz888]

Vote: Sparky

[theorel]

Sparky now has 3 votes.

[sparky5856]

Robz you are screwing with my strong town read on you by voting for a different person every half hour

No, people are screwing with my strong reads every half hour, causing me to change my vote.

...by people making the person you vote for too towny to lynch so you move on to someone else hoping to get better results?

[Robz888]

I have to vote for whomever is the consensus among the people who don't want to kill me. The people who don't want to kill me are: O-Theorel-Frisk-Cuzz-Me.

The people I would like to kill are Insomniac-Jo-sparky-Grujah, in that order. However, I expect most of them are scum anyway. I'm just pretty sure Insomniac is the SK and that that's better, but whatever.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-21

Grujah (1): Cuzz
Robz888 (4): jotheonah, Grujah, Insomniac, sparky5856
sparky5856 (3): Captain_Frisk, theorel, Robz888

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah, you're the only one i actually trust.  Interested in coming over here? 

[Insomniac]

I have to vote for whomever is the consensus among the people who don't want to kill me. The people who don't want to kill me are: O-Theorel-Frisk-Cuzz-Me.

The people I would like to kill are Insomniac-Jo-sparky-Grujah, in that order. However, I expect most of them are scum anyway. I'm just pretty sure Insomniac is the SK and that that's better, but whatever.

You are wrong about me, I'm a VT as claimed, but you already know that because you're scum using the SK argument to try and add additional merit to my lynch.

[Cuzz]

vote: sparky

I still really think Robz is town, and we're dangerously close to lynching our only investigative role.

[Captain_Frisk]

Man, O gets to hammer again

[Captain_Frisk]

Although I don't like Cuzz joining me.

[Captain_Frisk]

All right guys, since volt is clearly around, and O could hammer at any moment, I'm going to put together my thoughts, since I expect to die tonight.

[Grujah]

Nvm. Jesus this game is moving fast.

This game is breakneck insanity.

WE'RE BLOODTHIRSTY

Yeah you know what, VOTE: ROBZ, I'm done with breakneck insanity. After Insomniac's

Okay well, Insomniac is the Serial Killer. Actually, killing the Serial Killer right now would be fine, right? Actually2, it's better.

Vote: Insomniac

Remember M3, Killing Jo D2 was the WORST mistake they made. but also I'm not the SK. and Robz stands to go into day 2 with all of his mafia buddies AND that means the town is in a horrible position, worse yet if there is a SK you could lose tonight by lynching me.

...Yeah guys MAFIA is what we want NOT SK. The thought of town lynching SK and losing because of it is breakneck insanity in itself.

I hate this post, could see my vote changing here.
Explain your vote.
I'm all for Robz lynch, but this looks like blunt wagoning, you didn't express any anti-Robz stances before. "Being bloodthirsty" is scumm-joke-tactics.

Also, if we lynch SK that doesn't me we lose. We still have 1 shot left at lynching in that case. If we lynch townie, and there is SK, and Mafia kills SK and SK kills a townie mafia wins, though.

[sparky5856]

You guys should vote for me multiple times like Frisk did, you'll get better results that way.

But I do need to say that it's too unfortunate that my lurking has garnered attention to myself when I'm not the scum. Notice how active I've been the last hour; I try to be here when I can, but unfortunately I can't be in here all the time. Maybe I should take Frisk's advice and actually take the time to pop in next time I'm town, cause this time it didn't help that I didn't.

Anyway sorry about my anti-town actions. This town is as good as done anyway if I'm to get lynched. That's why I'm writing what I want to be a strong defense.

[sparky5856]

Yeah that smiley looks a bit too evil I realized >_<

[Cuzz]

Ugh gotta go teach for a few hours just when things are getting exciting! I can't wait to catch up when I get back. This game is the best.

[Captain_Frisk]

Obviouly, I'm feeling good about sparky.

I don't trust Cuzz, but I actually hope that he's scum, because then we only have 3 mafia to deal with instead of 3 mafia and the SK.

Joth is my #3.

Insomniac / theorel and O all seem equally scummy to me. (4,5,6)  Lets put theorel at the bottom there.

I think RobZ is telling the truth, but is playing poorly.  See MIV some some SK hunting as well IIRC.  #7

#8 - Grujah.  I know you guys all think that I'm paired up with him, but I just don't think he's crazy enough to false claim without some preparation.

[sparky5856]

If all the mafia live to Day 3 then can all pile on someone easily. Be VERY careful with your votes next day everyone.

[Captain_Frisk]

Sparky, we don't lose if we lynch SK.

We lose if we lynch town, and then mafia kills the SK while the SK kills another townie, leaving us 3v3.

If we kill the SK, then the worst we can be tomorrow is 4 townies vs. 3 mafia.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-22

Robz888 (4): jotheonah, Grujah, Insomniac, sparky5856
sparky5856 (4): Captain_Frisk, theorel, Robz888, Cuzz

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Captain_Frisk]

If all the mafia live to Day 3 then can all pile on someone easily. Be VERY careful with your votes next day everyone.
[/quote

Seconded.  If I'm alive i will 100% vote for anyone who early votes - as I will AUTOMATICALLY assume they are scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

If all the mafia live to Day 3 then can all pile on someone easily. Be VERY careful with your votes next day everyone.

Seconded.  If I'm alive i will 100% vote for anyone who early votes - as I will AUTOMATICALLY assume they are scum.

Fixed

[sparky5856]

If we kill the SK, then the worst we can be tomorrow is 4 townies vs. 3 mafia.

I want to avoid THAT as well.

You're SECONDEDING your most likely scum read? 

[Grujah]

Sparky, if you go offline without answering my last post, I'll hammer you. Also that farewell cry looks fakish. Also town leaves their read before death (like Frisk did) rather than whining about badplay.

[Captain_Frisk]

If we kill the SK, then the worst we can be tomorrow is 4 townies vs. 3 mafia.

I want to avoid THAT as well.

You're SECONDEDING your most likely scum read? 

I have said all sorts of pro town things as scum.

[sparky5856]

Sparky, if you go offline without answering my last post, I'll hammer you. Also that farewell cry looks fakish. Also town leaves their read before death (like Frisk did) rather than whining about badplay.

I already left my "will lynch" pool. And look who I'm voting for. Will answer your last post next.

[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - since you think you are so important - where is your farewell post?

[sparky5856]

Well we need to end this day cause we squandering time. So who's a likely liar at this point and who can easily be persuaded to everyone else that he's scum? What others have posted gave more insight to me concerning the first point.

[Robz888]

RobZ - since you think you are so important - where is your farewell post?

Uh, I'm not getting killed (I better not be getting killed!) but:

Insomniac is the Serial Killer, if there is one. If not, he's probably town. Jotheonah is mafia, hopefully so is sparky, probably either theorel or Grujah but who knows? I'm not ruling Cuzz or O out, and Cuzz is on and off my scum radar a lot. O just seems quite town to me, don't know why. Frisk is town for sure, or playing a brilliant mafia game alongside Grujah (and if he is, our resulting loss is hardly my fault...)

Now how am I playing badly? I think I'm playing great. I know who all the scum are!

[Robz888]

Oh, you mean in case I get nightkilled, gotcha. I thought you meant in case I was lynched.

[Captain_Frisk]

Well, O could certainly kill you (unles you know he won't buss you?)

You are at L-1 right?  I could kill you right now!

But you seem to think that your tracker is fearful - and possibly a better NK target than me... so if you think you're going to die... and you're town, then give us something.

[Captain_Frisk]

Note - those fairwell posts are hard as scum!  You don't want to say anything about your partners, but you have to!

[Captain_Frisk]

Is anyone else really excited right now?

[Insomniac]

Is anyone else really excited right now?

A little, this game is intense. I'm curious as to who will jump wagon or whom O will hammer

INB4 O COMES IN AND VOTES THEOREL

[Robz888]

Is anyone else really excited right now?

I would be more excited if we were killing Insomniac or Jo. My sentiment is mild worry.

[sparky5856]

Even if I do die, this has been one of the most FUN games I've ever played. And that's coming from the receiving end of the votes.

I STILL WANT TO LIVE >_<

[Captain_Frisk]

Even if I do die, this has been one of the most FUN games I've ever played. And that's coming from the receiving end of the votes.

I STILL WANT TO LIVE >_<

Where is this mega defensive post?

And I'll second you again.  This is giving MIV a run for its money.

Future mods take note: I think this is the sweet spot for player size.

[Insomniac]

Future mods take note: I think this is the sweet spot for player size.

+1,000,000,000,000. Cannot agree more, would read again.

[Voltgloss]

Future mods take note: I think this is the sweet spot for player size.

Agreed.

[Captain_Frisk]

Future mods take note: I think this is the sweet spot for player size.

Agreed.

Or maybe Volt is just the best mod?

[sparky5856]

You guys should vote for me multiple times like Frisk did, you'll get better results that way.

But I do need to say that it's too unfortunate that my lurking has garnered attention to myself when I'm not the scum. Notice how active I've been the last hour; I try to be here when I can, but unfortunately I can't be in here all the time. Maybe I should take Frisk's advice and actually take the time to pop in next time I'm town, cause this time it didn't help that I didn't.

Anyway sorry about my anti-town actions. This town is as good as done anyway if I'm to get lynched. That's why I'm writing what I want to be a strong defense.

I was intending for it to be this. Not mega-defensive because my brain doesn't feel like putting effort into anything (#collegekid), but strong enough to apologize for my anti-town behavior, cause I would be shameful not to do at least that.

I really hate that I gotta leave shortly >_< I'll be back in a couple hours probably to find myself dead

[Robz888]

I actually think Sparky is dying in a deeply unsettling townish way.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Grujah - are you satisfied with Sparky's response? 

[Captain_Frisk]

I actually think Sparky is dying in a deeply unsettling townish way.

So who are the scum on the wagon then?

[jotheonah]

Man I missed a lot of action. I agree Insom is almost certainly SK, btw. Regardless of Robz's flip.

He reacted really over-the-top to that accusation, despite a grand total of ZERO votes on him.

[Insomniac]

Man I missed a lot of action. I agree Insom is almost certainly SK, btw. Regardless of Robz's flip.

He reacted really over-the-top to that accusation, despite a grand total of ZERO votes on him.

I had one and I had 2 other people voice that I was prob SK

[Robz888]

I actually think Sparky is dying in a deeply unsettling townish way.

So who are the scum on the wagon then?

I don't know. I just don't know. It's on now, he should still die. I was just saying.

[sparky5856]

I gotta give insight before I go that I can't see Grujah's switch as productive in any way. Maybe he doesn't care about my response and just wants town dead, but wants to question me just for cheap town points. Or he's a townie about to make a mistake.

[jotheonah]

Sorry, too much dr. Seuss.

Why do you favor him so much more?

1). He drove a wagon against O, who I suspect is town.

You were driving it right there with me, buddy.

2). He agreed with the Grujah lynch, even after Grujah's Doc claim... but now has come around to wanting me dead. Grujah and Robz are mutually exclusive positions. It strikes me that he just wants PRs to die.

I've gone back and forth on my reads. But whichever one of you gets lynched, it'll give good info about the other, so they're hardly mutually exclusive.

3). I don't know why he wouldn't pursue a VT now, after everything that's happened, and theorel's analysis.

Because all my strong scum reads are claimed PRs, the chances of everyone telling the truth are very low, and the claimed PR lynches are more informational, all of which I've said repeatedly.

4). He seemed like he wanted to protect sparky, which I agree probably makes sparky scum, too.

Not protecting anyone, just voting my reads.

5). He wants me dead! He's arguing that the Tracker is negative utility to the town, when in reality, while there are dangers, it's certainly one way we could catch scum tomorrow. He just wants me lynched now rather than playing WIFOM with Doctors.

How on earth would your role help us catch scum tomorrow if there's no way to verify your honesty?

[Captain_Frisk]

I actually think Sparky is dying in a deeply unsettling townish way.

So who are the scum on the wagon then?

I don't know. I just don't know. It's on now, he should still die. I was just saying.

This would be an example of the poor play.  Holy xxxxdo I want to lynch you for this.

[Robz888]

Uh, O.K.

[Captain_Frisk]

We're here at a lynch, and you found a fence, climbed up it, and sat down.

[Robz888]

I'm not engaging this.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah?  I think Joth and Insomniac are unlikely to bus sparky.

You interested in switching, or do we have to wait for O?  This is killing me.

[jotheonah]

Frisk, I'm willing to lynch sparky. Just give me some reasons he's scummier than Robz. Note that I don't want math that tells me we have a better percent chance, I want actual reasons he's scummier.

[Insomniac]

Grujah?  I think Joth and Insomniac are unlikely to bus sparky.

You interested in switching, or do we have to wait for O?  This is killing me.

I was willing to and voted him second...and then Robz went off the deep end.

[jotheonah]

I have some misgivings about Robz, truth be told.

Like I can't figure out why scumRobz targets off wagon rather than laying on against Grujah or Frisk. The fact that he starts buddying Frisk is kind of baffling to me, too.

But wait, I kinda do see it. If he tunneled on Frisk or Grujah and got them lynched, and they flipped town, then the finger would hit him tomorrow. But if he zeroes in on the VTs, all the PRs have just as much cred tomorrow as they had today.

This is the big problem I have with the sparky lynch. We start tomorrow no better off in our hunting, EVEN IF HE'S SCUM. And I just can't understand how that's pro-town.

[Captain_Frisk]

[Captain_Frisk]

I have some misgivings about Robz, truth be told.

Like I can't figure out why scumRobz targets off wagon rather than laying on against Grujah or Frisk. The fact that he starts buddying Frisk is kind of baffling to me, too.

But wait, I kinda do see it. If he tunneled on Frisk or Grujah and got them lynched, and they flipped town, then the finger would hit him tomorrow. But if he zeroes in on the VTs, all the PRs have just as much cred tomorrow as they had today.

This is the big problem I have with the sparky lynch. We start tomorrow no better off in our hunting, EVEN IF HE'S SCUM. And I just can't understand how that's pro-town.

Either way, we have some very big information.  Who voted and who didn't.  There's also the night kills, and the "results" of RobZ's investigation.

I fail to see how the Sparky lynch is more / less informative than any other.

[Robz888]

I have some misgivings about Robz, truth be told.

Like I can't figure out why scumRobz targets off wagon rather than laying on against Grujah or Frisk. The fact that he starts buddying Frisk is kind of baffling to me, too.

But wait, I kinda do see it. If he tunneled on Frisk or Grujah and got them lynched, and they flipped town, then the finger would hit him tomorrow. But if he zeroes in on the VTs, all the PRs have just as much cred tomorrow as they had today.

This is the big problem I have with the sparky lynch. We start tomorrow no better off in our hunting, EVEN IF HE'S SCUM. And I just can't understand how that's pro-town.

I aggressively laid in against Grujah and Frisk. I railed against Grujah and Frisk. And then I felt like I lost that argument, right about the time where I claimed. Then I started to feel like Frisk was town, which is what everybody seems to think, by the way. And if he is, then who knows about Grujah?

[Robz888]

Yeah, the informational thing is not a super big deal at this point. We have no idea all the crazy stuff that's going to happen tonight. It's going to be informational regardless.

[Captain_Frisk]

Joth -

Ask yourself this question:

If you was the serial killer - who would you rather lynch today?

[jotheonah]

The information I want is about how many, if any, PRs are lying. The Robz lynch could give us some info about that. The sparky lynch could not.

Nightkills could also give us that info, but if I'm scum, I'm gonna target the VTs and leave the PRs alone! Because if the scum have fake-claimed, real-claim flips are more likely to hurt their credibility, which has become important. Also, knowing our protective actions are directed toward the PRs, targeting the VTs is a better chance of a nightkill going through.

PPE: Very good point, Frisk. Hmmm.

[Grujah]

@Grujah - are you satisfied with Sparky's response?

Not at all. I'm still more convinced about Robz, and jo's post on Robz actually has sense, but I'm willing do to sparky now.

This last vote of his (on Robz) is just so bad, it basically screams scum to me. It's the same thing Cuzz has done D1, only worse.
He first asks "Anybody willing to get Robz to L-1?". Why ask that? Than, few posts later, he votes for him, no reason stated, just that he is "bloodthirsty" and tired of "breakneck insanity" and gets with faulty SK logic. It's obviously wagony and scummy.

Just went over some of his posts, D1 he also jumped on Robz wagon just for jumping on Robz's wagon.



Anybody has anything left to add before we end the day? Also, where is O on all this?

PPE: Jo's post on whom scum will kill apsolutely makes no sense. Of course they want to take down PRs, they can screw them bad.

[Robz888]

Go ahead and end it, Grujah. I want to know...

[jotheonah]

If Insom is SK, and I think that looks likely, then he wants the tracker dead. But he also doesn't know if Robz's claim is true or false any better than town does. So that doesn't really change who's scum and who's town.

[Insomniac]

If Insom is SK, and I think that looks likely, then he wants the tracker dead. But he also doesn't know if Robz's claim is true or false any better than town does. So that doesn't really change who's scum and who's town.

Would have picked Ninja/Strongman already said this.

[Captain_Frisk]

I also want to know - go for it Grujah.

I just went through the scenarios of 0,1,2,3(LOL), 4 (impossible) liars among the PRs, and I think that no matter what, it makes sense to strongman kill me, or roleblock me and try to get the SK kill (if we mislynch)

[Insomniac]

wait wait wait wait wait...
Unvote

[Insomniac]

I do not think it is fair to end this day without O weighing in, so I unvoted so that the sparky voters don't have to fear him hammering Robz.

[Captain_Frisk]

Oh was here as recently as 1. 

[Insomniac]

And sooo much has happened since then...

[Robz888]

O has been here. He said this:

But... by any measure there are more mafia in the non-claimant pool than in the claimant pool, right? Unless you think the claimant pool has two mafia, which is something I no longer think (Frisk convinced me).

I think it still could be true that either Grujah or Cuzz are lying, just one of them. If so, that leaves 2 mafia among... well, among 5 people, my mistake. So I think Insomniac, Jo, Theorel, Sparky, O have 2 mafia (possibly 3). I'm just saying that a lot of these people are going to be misdirecting us.

Maybe I'm not saying anything, I guess, because I don't know whether Grujah is trying to misdirect me, or whether Cuzz is (he's creeping up a bit more on my suspicions, it's just his comments, his claims till seems stronger).

I agree with towns consensus/theorel's analysis that we should be lynching VT claims. I just don't understand why Theorel is getting such a pass, from both VT claims and PRs, and I was pointing out that there is very very likely >0 among the PRs, and they're not willing to lynch theorel either.

And this, in response to Insomniac saying I outed two Doctors.

Who says robz actually drove a wagon on two doctors, anyways?

I'm not one for scumslips, but...

[Robz888]

More O:

I'd like to point out that pretty much everyone except Insomniac has atttempted to lynch me several times. I'd also like to point out that some of our claims (likely one) are very likely lying, and that YOU'RE ALL UNWILLING TO LYNCH THEOREL. WHY?!

Of course I have advantage of knowing that I'm town which makes Theorel scummy as fuck, but Theorel is by far scummier than Joth and Insomniac to me. not as sure about sparky.

[Insomniac]

If somebody else unvotes Robz then you don't even have to worry about a scum team of O-Insom (lol) quick hammering Robz. I 100% promise all of you that I'm NOT the serial killer.

@Robz as I said to CF a lot happened since O last weighed in.

[Captain_Frisk]

I think if Grujah is willing to hammer, then we can save an unknown # of hours by just doing it.  I don't see O changing my mind into voting for a possible town PR at this point.

[Insomniac]

I think if Grujah is willing to hammer, then we can save an unknown # of hours by just doing it.  I don't see O changing my mind into voting for a possible town PR at this point.

Why do you not want information, having O weigh in gives us information on O going into the next day?

[Captain_Frisk]

Because if O is scum he can just go away for 3 days.

[Robz888]

WE ARE EATING UP OUR CLOCK, REMEMBER?

O has already said that he supports lynching the VT claimants. I suspect that, like me, he would prefer someone other than sparky (theorel in his case), but sparky it is.

[jotheonah]

Well, now Grujah has also left. Should I hammer sparky? If it's really an inevitability at this point, I guess I might as well save us the time?

[Insomniac]

Because if O is scum he can just go away for 3 days.

WE ARE EATING UP OUR CLOCK, REMEMBER?

O has already said that he supports lynching the VT claimants. I suspect that, like me, he would prefer someone other than sparky (theorel in his case), but sparky it is.

Yes I didn't think about O going away for that long I figured he'd post later otherwise he becomes obvscum. But fine, let it be known I support a Robz lynch more

Vote: Sparky

[Robz888]

I appreciate that. Really, we don't want to lose anymore time here. And now we wait....

[Voltgloss]

THREAD LOCKED

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-23

Robz888 (3): jotheonah, Grujah, sparky5856
sparky5856 (5): Captain_Frisk, theorel, Robz888, Cuzz, Insomniac

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Flavor courtesy of a wandering reporter, known only as "G to the alzria," who recounted the day's events as follows...

Joth found Robz scummy, who in turn found O scummy, until they all decided they were likely town. Then Robz found Cuzz scummy, along with everyone else, until Cuzz claimed. Then Theorel found O scummy while Robz found Grujah scummy. Eventually they forced Grujah to claim as well, and both claims were Doctor. For awhile nobody realized they both could be true. Then they realized it was like a 07% chance, but it meant there must be a JK. Robz wanted to kill Gruj anyway. Joth wanted to massclaim. CF defended Grujah. Robz swore they were both scummates. CF claimed JK. Robz called for no more claims but still wanted to lynch Grujah. Theorel suspected O. They debated roles for 10 pages. Ribz claimed Tracker. Joth flip flopped between wanting to lynch Robz, Gruj, Cuzz, and anyone else who posted. Theorel suspected O. They decided to massclaim. Everyone else claimed VT. They debated over the existence of a SK, which could put town in lylo (he existed if nobody fakeclaimed, but not if one person lied. However if two did there WAS a SK). Theorel wanted to lynch a claimed VT over a claimed PR, using math to show the odds of finding scum were better there. He suspected O. Robz decided Sparky was scum. Sparky lurked. Insomniac claimed Robz was scum who had outed all the PR's. Joth agreed. Grujah and Frisk were on the fence. Eventually everyone but O had voted, and Sparky and Robz were both at L-1. People waffled (Ha!). People waffled some more. Everybody claimed Insomniac was obvSK. Insomniac denied it. People waffled. Sparky was lynched. Sparky was scum. Theorel suspected O.

sparky5856, Mafia Highwayman {Goon}, has been lynched.

Night 2 has begun.  Night actions are due within 48 hours, i.e., by 4:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday, October 4.  If all actions are received prior to the deadline, Day 3 may start early.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Mood music: 

Drunk off of a night's celebration at successfully lynching Mafia, seven people woke to a bleary morning and staggered out to the town square... where the missing eighth person was hanging from the gibbet. 

Who, instead of wearing pants like the rest of them, was now sporting a well-tailored skirt.  There could be no doubt any longer:  Captain_Frisk, Town Duchess {Jailkeeper}, had been slain in the night.

Another note lay beneath the body's swinging feet.  It read simply: 

"When that rope starts to pull tight...
...you can feel the Devil bite your ass."

Day 3 Start!!

Not voting {7}: Robz888, jotheonah, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz, O, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

Am I the only one who was furiously refreshing around the 4:00 mark?

Btw, that was the strongman kill. I protected Frisk last night (well tried to anyway).

[Robz888]

Okay, not as bad as it could have been.

I will be mostly V/LA until Monday.

Every person should post exactly who they targeted last night, if anyone. When every player has done so, I will give my tracking result.

[Cuzz]

I should say a strongman kill. Still SK possibility (though unlikely, need killer to have been Jailkept and/or Grujah actually is a doctor blah blah I think you guys can fill in the details).

[Insomniac]

Targeted no one, am a VT

[Cuzz]

Okay, not as bad as it could have been.

I will be mostly V/LA until Monday.

Every person should post exactly who they targeted last night, if anyone. When every player has done so, I will give my tracking result.

The only one who you could be waiting for is Grujah, right? No other claimed PRs.

[O]

I targeted no one.

FOS Insomniac to hammering before I got back, as the only reason I can really find for doing that is to make me look bad. If Insomniac was town, why not let me (who is much more suspected overall) take a stance on whether or not we should lynch him right then?

Another (not-exclusionary) possibility is that Cuzz is the lying PR, and Robz is town tracker: There could be no Strongman kill, Cuzz targeted CF and cuzz claimed he targeted CF as doctor to make sure he doesn't out himself to tracker.

[Cuzz]

I targeted no one.

FOS Insomniac to hammering before I got back, as the only reason I can really find for doing that is to make me look bad. If Insomniac was town, why not let me (who is much more suspected overall) take a stance on whether or not we should lynch him right then?

Another (not-exclusionary) possibility is that Cuzz is the lying PR, and Robz is town tracker: There could be no Strongman kill, Cuzz targeted CF and cuzz claimed he targeted CF as doctor to make sure he doesn't out himself to tracker.

I of course realize this is a possible interpretation from the viewpoint of someone who's not me. It's wrong though.

Also I just realized that when I insisted there was a strongman kill, I neglected to take into account potential busdriving. Lord knows what all the possibilities there are.

[Insomniac]

People wanted the day to end, if you were scum you could have lurked it out as people told me, and if we waited you might have lynched Robz. Grujah has expressed intent to hammer anyways.

[O]

People wanted the day to end, if you were scum you could have lurked it out as people told me, and if we waited you might have lynched Robz. Grujah has expressed intent to hammer anyways.

If I had lurked it out I would have given you another free scum kill if i were scum, no?

[Insomniac]

People wanted the day to end, if you were scum you could have lurked it out as people told me, and if we waited you might have lynched Robz. Grujah has expressed intent to hammer anyways.

If I had lurked it out I would have given you another free scum kill if i were scum, no?

We would have known that YOU were scum, but nothing about whether your partner was sparky or robz. Plus even letting you lurk a bit would have ate into our deadline.

[Cuzz]

Here's a sample of joth's thoughts about a sparky lynch. This is not remotely exhaustive.

Um, at the end of the day town needs to get someone killed too. I guess I could support a sparky lynch? I don't like how he managed to make himself the last claimant by lurking all day. And I could see him as either team's partner.

The problem is, what do we learn from a sparky lynch? Not bloody much.

sparky has interacted with almost no one. No fights, no claims, no hammers - nothing that ties him to anyone else.

BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE A SCUM READ ON SPARKY.

And I do very much have a scum read on you.

And that's how TOWN plays the game, Robz.

This is the big problem I have with the sparky lynch. We start tomorrow no better off in our hunting, EVEN IF HE'S SCUM. And I just can't understand how that's pro-town.

I especially like this last one about how lynching sparky isn't pro-town even if sparky is scum.

Oh, and once sparky got to L-1, here are his statements of just how willing he was to hammer sparky, which of course he didn't do.

Frisk, I'm willing to lynch sparky. Just give me some reasons he's scummier than Robz. Note that I don't want math that tells me we have a better percent chance, I want actual reasons he's scummier.

Well, now Grujah has also left. Should I hammer sparky? If it's really an inevitability at this point, I guess I might as well save us the time?

To me this reads oooooooooobvscum after sparky's flip but I'm curious to hear from others.

[Insomniac]

To be fair the last one where he talked about Grujah leaving was pretty much right before I hammered.

[Robz888]

Please no one speculate about what could or could not have happened until after Grujah reveals his target. We don't want to propose a plausible explanations for liars to appropriate.

[Grujah]

Protected Frisk as well, in case he gets ninjakilled and not strongmaned. Though Cuzz might do the same, but I couldn't be sure in his claim. gathered it made no use to protect Robz as he might be lying and also if they wanted to strongman him I couldn't do anything.

Will be V/LA tomorrow. Not sure about saturdday but probably online.

FWIW,
1 kill again - probably we don't have SK - Robz or Cuz = scum.

Vote: Robz

[theorel]

Obviously targeted no one.

Quick post before bed.
I think we still don't want to lynch a claimed PR.
I mean scum-101 says to NK PRs right?
So, the longer we can avoid lynching a PR the more likely we are to lynch the right PR-claim.
And continuously in the off-chance that all PRs are true, we get to not be helping scum.

Anyways, I think the probabilities only back me up from a VT-claimant perspective.  From an impartial observer perspective, it's better to lynch a PR-claim (probabilistically), and from a true PR perspective it's better to lynch a PR-claim, both as long as it's true that we have NO SK.

I think numbers might be small enough to consider who makes sense as Sparky-partners, either because of how they bussed or because they didn't join in, or because of early game interaction.  Just jumping back on the same suspicions from yesterday for the same old reasons seems fruitless to me.  We should move forward with the newly gained information (Frisk town Jailkeeper, Sparky in fact scum), and let the old information weigh in only as some part of suspicions rather than the whole case.

All that said: Grujah do you have a strong reason for voting Robz?  Or is it just that you have 50-50 chance from your (presumed town) perspective?  Because that's not all that compelling for someone who doesn't know you're town.  (though I lean slightly more town on you now that Frisk is confirmed as town and killed by scum)

[Cuzz]

Grujah can you explain how you gather that Robz or I must be scum?

Also maybe a stupid question but is it true that strongman kills go through even if target is protected twice?

And who's with me in thinking joth must be scum? I wanna be more careful with votes at this stage but I feel rather certain of this, and that's a rarity for me.

[Voltgloss]

Also maybe a stupid question but is it true that strongman kills go through even if target is protected twice?

This is true.

[jotheonah]

So, I know that in hindsight it looks like I was trying to stop the sparky lynch. But really I was trying to promote the Robz lynch. I basically had a null read on sparky, but I didn't want to lynch him when I had a real scum read in my sights. And I still think it's very possible Robz is scum.

[Robz888]

Can't talk now, but real quick, I tracked jotheonah. My result: no one.

What does this mean? Not much, I am afraid, when busing and ninja is considered. I have thoughts obviously, which I will have to share when I have more time.

[jotheonah]

It means I finally have a reason to believe your claim, Robz! If you were scum, you definitely would have made something up about me targeting someone. I'm such an easy mislynch target right now.

So if a PR claim is lying, it's gotta be Cuzz I think. If our PR claims were all telling the truth, then it's like everybody else, right?

[Grujah]

Grujah can you explain how you gather that Robz or I must be scum?

Cuz if we have no SK a PR is lying.


Strongman goes through any amount of protections.

[Robz888]

I think the evidence is arguably strong that there is no sk. Remember that my day 1 tracking accounted for all the kills with no sk. Now we have only one death, even though the sk would likely have the super shots. But even a one shot immune sk would have had some likelihood of hitting either last night or tonight (well there are a lot of doctors then, but still.)

Actually I dunno, a one shot immune sk probably has high likelihood of no extra kills succeeding both nights.

But I think it is now more likely than not that there is no sk. If that is the case, we have one scum among Grujah and cuzz, and one among the vts.

Unfortunately I am no closer to figuring out which of Grujah and cuzz is lying. Although to be honest, Grujah coming after me looks kind of town ish. Because of he drives a successful wagon against me, mafia Grujah should know thy would make him a huge target after my town flip.

That's just food for thought for the moment. I agree with theorel that we should look at each players relationship with sparky, going back to say 1. I  cautiously optimistic we could catch scum that way. I'll do it when I have more time.

[Cuzz]

So, no SK then means scum between Robz and Grujah. SK means 3 scum among O, joth, Insomniac and theorel.

My biggest scum read at the moment is joth for reasons outlined above, but he could be scum in either scenario. My second biggest is Grujah, and that flip would be quite informational. We're getting a bit past the point where lynching for information is wise, but on the other hand it seems that no SK is slightly more likely (and I don't really think Robz is scum).

At the moment I dont see myself voting for anyone but those two today.

[jotheonah]

Cuzz, how do you reconcile your misguided scumread on me with Robz's track result? I know I'm the one who said he could be lying, but we're clearly not partners, so I kinda think I'm clear? Unless you think I'm just a Goon who didn't do the kill, I guess?

I guess Frisk's being town doesn't clear Grujah. It was way too easy for Grujah to claim having protected the same person as Cuzz. So that definitely gets him no believability points. If one of our "doctors" is lying, it's him.

Now between O, Insomniac, and theorel, I think O and Insom are both scummy for hammer-related reasons. And I still have an outdated scumread on theorel for the hider thing, although I admit that's a weak case.

[Cuzz]

Cuzz, how do you reconcile your misguided scumread on me with Robz's track result? I know I'm the one who said he could be lying, but we're clearly not partners, so I kinda think I'm clear? Unless you think I'm just a Goon who didn't do the kill, I guess?

Exactly. There's two mafia left and one factional kill. If I were you, and mafia, I certainly would have had my partner do the kill last night. I would have expected to be tracked after being so against the sparky lynch.

[Cuzz]

And no, Frisk being town does not clear Grujah. It means that his defense of Grujah was genuine, but that doesn't mean it wasn't wrong.

[Robz888]

So we know we can trust Frisk, and Frisk trusted Grujah more than Cuzz. The problem is I personally know I can trust myself, and I believed Cuzz over Grujah. And of course, there's nothing to prevent both of them from just being doctors.

[Robz888]

So we know we can trust Frisk, and Frisk trusted Grujah more than Cuzz. The problem is I personally know I can trust myself, and I believed Cuzz over Grujah. And of course, there's nothing to prevent both of them from just being doctors.

... except that would mean there's a serial killer who has failed to kill both nights (or the mafia failed to kill both nights, you get what I mean).

[Cuzz]

So we know we can trust Frisk, and Frisk trusted Grujah more than Cuzz. The problem is I personally know I can trust myself, and I believed Cuzz over Grujah. And of course, there's nothing to prevent both of them from just being doctors.

... except that would mean there's a serial killer who has failed to kill both nights (or the mafia failed to kill both nights, you get what I mean).

So who are your lynch candidates for today? I suppose you're at least considering me and Grujah but anyone else?

[O]

Theorel/Insomniac both seem scummiest to me atm.

[Insomniac]

Ok so here's a 5 second review of sparky starting with his 6th post which is after rvs. This only uses his few posts that he gives his reads on players in, I skipped votes for now as I don't have too much time

Robz888 - Already said, his behavior is much different this game than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
jotheonah - Also hard on PPS, pushing for his lynch. Haven't played with him yet, so I can't gather a full read. I'll be wary though. Hey, I'm wary all around.
Insomniac - Questioning other players a lot. Seems like different play than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Grujah - Same feelings as Frisk. Something's not right here. Only two posts so far. And he wouldn't rest until I was in my grave in MA Mafia. Also he questioned my RVS vote lol. More scum than town.
Cuzz - Also not much, but he's been away.
O - I've seen scum O push for other people's deaths to the brink, he hasn't done that yet here. Then again O is a dangerous player. Slight town right now.
theorel - All around helpful. Town vibes.

Here he has a town read on most of us alive except grujah, and a null read on Cuzz.

Close to his dying he gave this post

THEOREL IS TOWNISH
INSOMNIAC IS TOWNISH

So that makes me and theorel look bad unless he was setting up a frame for when he died.

WOULD LYNCH:
Robz888
Grujah
O (when was the last post by him?)
jotheonah (ehhh he's on the brink really)

WOULD NOT LYNCH: (this is more with certainty)
Captain_Frisk
Cuzz
theorel
Insomniac (wait...)

Ahhhh come on Insomniac has claimed PR as scum before. Also why would a SK talk so much about himself? ...unless he's going out of his way to protect himself? Is he under pressure?

Someone help me on him, I'm drawing multiple blanks.

Don't know what to make of the above one yet seems to reflect all the reads he'd already given and this one came after.




OK now his vote pattern from day 1
RVS - Cuzz
Robz (Post 309)
Grujah (Post 476)
Captian_Frisk (Post 496)
Captain_Frisk (Post 787)
Grujah (Post 812)
O (Post 1043 [there are no votes on O at this point])
Robz (Post 1160)



So he has never voted for Theorel, Cuzz, or myself, and he only had a nonsense vote on O.

[Insomniac]

Sorry the review of sparky is for all days including the vote pattern i Just meant it was from day 1 on.

[Robz888]

So we know we can trust Frisk, and Frisk trusted Grujah more than Cuzz. The problem is I personally know I can trust myself, and I believed Cuzz over Grujah. And of course, there's nothing to prevent both of them from just being doctors.

... except that would mean there's a serial killer who has failed to kill both nights (or the mafia failed to kill both nights, you get what I mean).

So who are your lynch candidates for today? I suppose you're at least considering me and Grujah but anyone else?

Right now it's pretty hard for me to narrow down, and I'm still working through all the possible scenarios.

I tracked Jo because I thought he was mostly likely to be the Bus Driver, and since he can't Bus Drive himself--or prevent my tracking by Bus Driving me--that was the best way to catch scum. I wouldn't put it past him to have predicted that's what I was going to do, though, since I was most suspicious of him at the end of yesterday. In fact, I was very close to tracking someone else for precisely this reason. However, I can't pretend like there's more evidence against Jo now--there's certainly less.

I still do not suspect O, and I don't particularly suspect Insomniac of being mafia, although I do think if there's a SK, it's him. So it's between Theorel and Jo sort of, and also Cuzz and Grujah... but that's nowhere near a final suspicions list. The most important thing to do--which I won't be able to do until Monday, unfortunately--is to look back at how every player interact with sparky. Whoever's interactions there are most scummy is who I will vote for, period.

[Cuzz]

Ok so here's a 5 second review of sparky starting with his 6th post which is after rvs. This only uses his few posts that he gives his reads on players in, I skipped votes for now as I don't have too much time

Robz888 - Already said, his behavior is much different this game than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
jotheonah - Also hard on PPS, pushing for his lynch. Haven't played with him yet, so I can't gather a full read. I'll be wary though. Hey, I'm wary all around.
Insomniac - Questioning other players a lot. Seems like different play than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Grujah - Same feelings as Frisk. Something's not right here. Only two posts so far. And he wouldn't rest until I was in my grave in MA Mafia. Also he questioned my RVS vote lol. More scum than town.
Cuzz - Also not much, but he's been away.
O - I've seen scum O push for other people's deaths to the brink, he hasn't done that yet here. Then again O is a dangerous player. Slight town right now.
theorel - All around helpful. Town vibes.

Here he has a town read on most of us alive except grujah, and a null read on Cuzz.

Close to his dying he gave this post

THEOREL IS TOWNISH
INSOMNIAC IS TOWNISH

So that makes me and theorel look bad unless he was setting up a frame for when he died.

WOULD LYNCH:
Robz888
Grujah
O (when was the last post by him?)
jotheonah (ehhh he's on the brink really)

WOULD NOT LYNCH: (this is more with certainty)
Captain_Frisk
Cuzz
theorel
Insomniac (wait...)

Ahhhh come on Insomniac has claimed PR as scum before. Also why would a SK talk so much about himself? ...unless he's going out of his way to protect himself? Is he under pressure?

Someone help me on him, I'm drawing multiple blanks.

Don't know what to make of the above one yet seems to reflect all the reads he'd already given and this one came after.




OK now his vote pattern from day 1
RVS - Cuzz
Robz (Post 309)
Grujah (Post 476)
Captian_Frisk (Post 496)
Captain_Frisk (Post 787)
Grujah (Post 812)
O (Post 1043 [there are no votes on O at this point])
Robz (Post 1160)



So he has never voted for Theorel, Cuzz, or myself, and he only had a nonsense vote on O.

Why do you ignore his interactions with joth here? He has kinda hedgy mild scum reads on joth in the first and third quotes. He has also never voted for joth.

[Insomniac]

Interactions with sparky these are much fewer

Ok well people I would currently be suspicious of are the ones that have voiced a desire to be on PPS's wagon but haven't done it or discussed anything else this game day. This includes

Cuzz
Captain_Frisk
Grujah
Jotheonah

Sparky has also been pretty hedgy in his few posts today so that seems a bit worrisome.

Joth has been driving the PPS case pretty hard, almost as hard as you Robz I just in this case suspect him a bit less than you.

Makes it onto my day 1 worry crew

I was reading through Mafia V today for the heck of it, I was sure Robz was scum skimming through Day 2, but I was wrong >_< I had a slight suspicion on yuma for not providing much input/staying to the sidelines, but practically everyone was convinced that he was town. And he turned out to be scum in the end.

+10000000 points for you, good sir. This is one of the more fundamentally town things you can do. (Unless you're hunting for scum help, in which case, shame on you.)

Robz gives him a bunch of town points

6 - sparky5856: not posting a lot, but I like the quality of his posts.  His posts regarding the PPS situation have been pretty good (i.e. analyzing it without really getting involved).  I think this is primarily pro-town behavior.  Also, giving initial thoughts on everybody.  I think he's probably town. scum_score: 20

Theorel gives him a prob town.

@sparky - yes, I did question your random vote. It was not RVS, we were actually discussing something important. You came and contribute nothing, and voting for no reason. It is anti-town. Also doing stupid stuff and blaming it on RVS is anti-town, and you are doing it.

@Eevee on the sparky case is there a reason that his defending PPS is different than you, O, or I? I mean I see he makes an assumption in one statement but it could easily be over confident townie syndrome or feeling like he's already said he thinks PPS is town enough.

Vote Count 1-6

Robz888 (3): Insomniac, ashersky, O
pingpongsam (3): Grujah, Captain_Frisk, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): pingpongsam
sparky5856 (2): cayvie, Eevee
O (2): jotheonah, Robz888

Not voting {2}: sparky5856, theorel

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, October 8, 10:30 a.m. EDT

Two of the people who died were seriously voting for Sparky last night.

I'm not buying the case on O. Like PPS yesterday O is reading town to me right now, I do think that Robz could be scum as I did yesterday, but also even though its over the top obvious I have a growing suspicion that sparky is scum I mean he hasn't said anything all day and was facing suspicion yesterday when the day ended. Put together with the fact that cayvie and ash died.
Tl;dr my highest suspicions are on sparky and robz.

@Sparky: I agree that Frisk has been lurky but Frisk ALWAYS lurks a bit (more so on weekends). I don't know your playstyle much yet and you were the attention of 2 dead townies (I did mean Eevee but also thought ash voted you at one point I was mistaken there). Frisk did not have heat from the dead townies to my recollection

Insomniac, jotheonah, get over here. I know you're around. I dare you to disagree with me.

The lurkers aren't going to defend themselves, because they can easily get away with not doing so.

I saw your post I just didn't comment because I completely agree. Grujah said he is going to post tonight, Frisk said he has a busy work day today.

Sparky I was already suspicious of but it also seems too obvious. theorel does indeed make posts so to me that makes Cuzz more suspicious then theorel, but I don't have that many more posts than Cuzz and O is only 3 more than me so it really becomes a where is the line question.

So in short I agree.

6 - sparky5856
in MIX, I also mostly scimmed his posts, but one thing that struck me there (something about Ins and ninjas) was read awesomely scummy and I was right.
Now, what struck me here?
As I said before, and people are dismissing it cause it seems harmless, but his random vote on Cuzz where he "blames RVS" when there was no RVS. PPS discussing was flaming and he deflects by voting Cuz.
Later, he was accused of sidelining on PPS thing and he deflected again by saying that those who "changed their mind" (from PPS to Robz or vv) were more scummy. This is not true. Sidelining is a sign of being afraid of seeming scummy so sides are not taken, switching is sign of human (scum or town) mental reasoning, methinks.
Lot of deflection, unsureness .. hmm.

Also, one more thing:
You went after Robz for his "Jesus Christ" open D1. Than wrote soemthing about me I dind't completely understand which was related to "Jesus Christ" thing.
Advice: drop it, it is friutless to pursue it. Take it from the guy who has done it the first/most here.

6 - sparky5856: Um, I dunno, he read townie to me early in day1.  Lots of suspicion is being cast here, but I'm not sure I share it.  I should reread him, to see if I believe others, but I'm going with scum_score: 25 pending reread.

sparky5856 - Hardcore lurking, comes out only when called out for lurking makes a few big posts and then seems to dissappear again

You're either Robz scummate or a delusional theorel whose mad that he didn't quite catch me MVIII in my mind. Joth is just delusional and not a scummate. IDK about grujah, sparky, cuzz. Insomniac town.

sparky -- I don't like how much he's lurking, but he's still sort of a newbie. Also, I was mafia with him in his only other game, MIX, so it's harder for me to evaluate him. He was transparently scummy to me in that game.

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

My list, scummiest to towniest, goes:

O
Robz
theorel
sparky
insom
jo

You missed Frisk (telling?), but anyway I'm not sure this part of it matters soooo much. I'm not even really sure I can order people that neatly. Well, I suppose I can try. How about this:

Frisk
theorel
sparky
Insomniac
O
Jotheonah
Robz (although I am fine with going first, and expect to)

Fake FOS to Jo for suggesting more time-wasting nonsense. We have to get on with this already.

Theorel> Robz > Sparky >Jotheonah > insomniac in scumminess among those who haven't claimed

Robz is quickly going up for continuing to suggest to kill Grujah for information when we're pretty freaking close to mylo. (3 scum SK 5 town atm..)

From here on is where the sparky wagon takes off

[Insomniac]

@Cuzz this is true I just forgot about Jo you can notice I didn't put him at the end either.

@All I stopped analyzing in the middle of the last post because there were a lot more interactions then I thought there were initially

[jotheonah]

Maybe we should table Grujah/Cuzz for tomorrow and try and catch the other non-claim liar? Normally I would approve of a 50% chance of scum lynch, but if we get it wrong we kill our doctor. I think it's better to give them another chance to try to prove themselves with Night Actions, and save our 50-50 shot for LyLo. I assume since we hit scum we're not at LyLo now?

O is the person I would most want to look at now. He had laid really low since he came under a lot of heat for his pps hammer.

[theorel]

We've never really been at lylo, we were (and still are) at possible mylo IF we mislynch, and there's a SK, and the SK kills town, and the scum kill the SK then we lose.

I've been reviewing sparky interactions for the last while, and he interacted with lots of folks.  I stopped really taking notes around the mass-claim happening.  I should try to review the wagon itself.  Things that stood out to me about each person's interactions:

He really went toe-to-toe with Grujah, they were attacking each other a lot (except when Sparky detoured for Frisk).  Either a strong bus on both sides, or Grujah is not scum.

Cuzz occasionally calls out sparky, but it's pretty weak.

Robz calls out sparky a lot more than Cuzz (less than Grujah did), but really seemed to want to push a wagon on someone else (i.e. joth).  He also went back to neutral with him a lot (most obvious being his "discomfort" with the approaching lynch at the end of the day).

Insomniac hit the Sparky case early and often.  He was accusing Sparky pretty much all Day2.

Sparky calls jo town several times, although he seems to try to cast suspicion there a little too (he switches more heavily to that at the end of the day).  He talks a lot about jo-Robz early in day2 though.

O goes with a null read, and never really interacts with Sparky in any meaningful way that I noticed.

Anyways, I find O, jo, Robz, and Cuzz most suspicious from the interactions personally.

Some other random stuff:
He defended PPS pretty strongly day1.  This implies that some scum-mate was already on-wagon for most of the day, or pushing strongly for the lynch.  Robz-joth stand out here, though Cuzz is far from exonerated.

He was suspected by 2 people at the end of day1, and O quick-hammered.  I noted early day2 that if O flipped scum that pointed a finger at Sparky.  The reverse is also true.

However, with all of that: I'm finding O and joth about even now.  MY preference is to take one of them and worry about the Cuzz-Robz situation tomorrow (assuming scum kill Grujah).

Also there is 0 reason for the bus-driver to act last night, since the JOAT could just strongman-kill.  This is true even if both doctor claims were true.  Scum can bus-drive OR roleblock tonight even if both claims are true (and we miss both of the mafia).

So, IF Robz is town, and investigated joth, then he only eliminated the possibility that he was JOAT.  Which does reduce his scum-probability some.  Honestly, that probably puts O above him...but I'll just catch crap for tunneling (the incredibly scummy)O some more.

[O]

So robz (who I have the largest suspicion is town ATM)

We bussed eachother as scum. A lot.

This is not some massive busfest with my trying to replicate MVIII. This is constant, 3 days long tunnelling by Theorel and Jotheonah, who pushed for a hammer during a two hour period I was away and now claim i'm "neutral" on sparky two posts above me saying he's my third lynch choice (below Theorel and you: I suspect I was wrong about you, I still think Theorel is scum).

I don't really think both Joth and Theorel are scum, though. just probably one of the two.

O is the person I would most want to look at now. He had laid really low since he came under a lot of heat for his pps hammer.

Laid low yesterday my ass. I came out swinging and defended myself, even with decreased free time due to the start of freshman quarter.

[theorel]

@O: I understand literally nothing of what you just wrote.  It doesn't make sense at all in the context of what's happened. 

where does 3 days come from?
This is just now day3, and I started pushing for your lynch at the start of day2.  Unless you mean IRL days, but it's been like a week and a half of tunneling in real life.  So, 3 days?

Also, you don't think this is a massive bus-fest.  I'm really not clear what you could possibly mean by that statement.  You mean that you don't suspect Insomniac/Grujah given they were pushing Sparky all day?  You don't suspect the people that voted Sparky?  You don't think you look suspicious given that you didn't bus sparky and say that there was probably little bussing going on? 

...
This is constant, 3 days long tunnelling by Theorel and Jotheonah, who pushed for a hammer during a two hour period I was away and now claim i'm "neutral" on sparky two posts above me saying he's my third lynch choice (below Theorel and you: I suspect I was wrong about you, I still think Theorel is scum).
...

I cannot parse this sentence.  I'm maybe being dense, but it's just not clear.  The best I can figure is that you're saying that joth pushed for a hammer while you were away.  And NOW claims you're neutral on sparky.  But did so 2 posts above you saying Sparky is your third lynch choice?  This requires his last post currently to be 2 posts before you said Sparky was third choice.  Or his claim of your neutrality to be 2 posts before your stated opinion.  Time-warp?
I really don't follow it.

To clarify (in case it was directed at me) I said I stopped around the mass-claim.  Here's the last post of yours that I read:

You're either Robz scummate or a delusional theorel whose mad that he didn't quite catch me MVIII in my mind. Joth is just delusional and not a scummate. IDK about grujah, sparky, cuzz. Insomniac town.

(I'm not quoting the rest, since I'm looking through print-view, I'll give a timestamp though)
Now, here's your stated opinions afterward:
among those unclaimed you put him third.  After myself and Robz  (during the mass-claim obviously) (Oct 1 11:24am)
Now this could be what you're referencing, but it's only among the unclaimed, not the whole town.  And he's third which is pretty neutral there.

Then AFTER the claims you state that:
you think I'm "far scummier than joth or Insomniac" But you are "not as sure about sparky". (Oct 2 12:25pm)
So, you are stated again of uncertainty in your sparky read.  Now your statement of uncertainty suggests that he might be scummier than me (since it seems like you're saying you're unsure of whether he's scummier or townier than me, who you've OMGUSed since middle of yesterday)

That was your last post on the matter.

Anyways, clarification would be good.

In order that I can be as clear as possible:
Here's my view of people's interactions with Sparky:  From most pro-town to least pro-town.
Grujah/Insomnaic: constantly pushed him as scummy.  Sparky attacked Grujah more than Grujah attacked Sparky, but the only problem I see here is that Grujah never actually voted for Sparky.  And Insomniac hammered at the last second.  Nonetheless, I'm definitely giving them some townie credit regarding Sparky flipping scum.

Robz: claimed Sparky was scummy, finally voted for him after being prompted.  Reasonable town-cred here, but I could see this as a moderate-bus.

Myself: I claimed Sparky read town to me (well, he did), was opposed to lynching off the PPS-wagon early in the day.  But once I decided that it was best to lynch a VT, and then decided that Frisk was prob-town, and wasn't willing to vote for joth/O, I went along with it.  Prompted Robz to go too.  From my perspective the scummiest he ever got was about even with joth.  Putting him somewhere behind O.

Cuzz: weaker relationship with Sparky, but he does claim a scum-read on him a couple times.  Votes him over Robz who he thought was town.  Really this makes Cuzz townier to me.  But really, it's not more than Robz' town-cred.

O: Went from null-read all the way to "scummier than joth/Insomniac".  Now, what would he have done if it came time to hammer?  We'll never know since Insomniac stole his thunder.  But then, if Insomniac had unvoted instead, O probably would have hammered, and gotten about as much town-cred as I'm giving him now.

joth: he defended Sparky.  Pushed and pushed for PR lynch over Sparky lynch.  He definitely comes out scummiest from that interaction.  His only saving grace is that Robz claims to have tracked him.  If Robz' scum, I don't think he's partners with joth (though they could be, it's unlikely IMO).  If Robz' town, then he's telling the truth and joth just lost 50% of his scum-probability since he can't be the JOAT.

Now, joth-O can't both be mafia unless Insomniac is SK, but that implies a SK who didn't kill last night (blocked/didn't shoot).
I will note that a SK might not have shot last night in hopes that we would lynch a PR today.  For that reason and other stated reasons, I'm still opposed to lynching a PR-claim.  But, I really don't think it's likely, and would prefer to just figure out which of joth/O/Insomniac is likeliest to be a partner with one of Robz/Cuzz/Grujah and Sparky.

So, joth and O are the two strongest suspects from my POV.

[O]

I think you're just being dense. 3 days is clearly a mistake: you've been tunneling hard for two days. "Two posts above" was two posts above your latest FOS of me.

[theorel]

Alright, since you refuse to communicate clearly, I'll try one more time to parse your post into something that a person who is not you can comprehend.  In other words, I'll use complete English sentences, divide ideas by paragraph breaks, and not use ambiguous pronouns.

The following is a translation of O's post to the best of my understanding:
"
So regarding robz, he is my biggest town read at the moment.

We bussed eachother as scum. A lot. Our behavior in the early game is not some massive busfest where I try to replicate MVIII.

Instead, in this game there has been constant tunnelling by Theorel and Jotheonah since the start of Day 2. They pushed for a hammer during a two hour period I was away and Theorel now claims I'm "neutral" on sparky in spite of the fact, that two posts above his claim there is a quote of me saying Sparky is my third lynch choice (below Theorel and jotheonah: I suspect I was wrong about jotheonah, I still think Theorel is scum).

I don't really think both Joth and Theorel are scum, though. just probably one of the two.
"

In which case, my response from the previous post stands, but at least I understand what you were trying to say.  And so, I have to note that "they pushed for a hammer during a 2-hour period I was away" is pretty much false.  I mean joth offered to hammer himself, but that's pretty far away from "pushing a hammer".  My last post is my vote on Sparky, I'm not seeing myself anywhere near pushing for a hammer.  You're probably just confused.

Also regarding joth's claim that you laid low the latter part of day2.  Here's your posting pattern:
Early part of the day, lots of posts defending the stupid quick-hammer.  This clump of posts ends sometime around Sep 27, 2:19pm
Then from Sep 29-Oct 2 (being the last 4 days of the day) you post 14 times.  (4 of those being the rapid vote-unvote of Grujah)
Now, I'm not saying you were totally absent or anything, but "laid low" is a pretty reasonable interpretation of those events.  At least how I understood joth's statement which was "laid low AFTER taking heat for the pps-lynch."  (i.e. after you stopped arguing about it, that's how I understood the usage of "since" there)

[jotheonah]

Yes, that's what I meant. Defending yourself a bunch for your scummy behavior is not exactly pro-town posting. And after you finished defending, you sort of faded into the background while the town got distracted by other things.

But I still don't know why scum-O would quickhammer to save Town-Robz.

[yuma]

Vote Count 3-1

Robz888 (1): Grujah

Not voting {6}: Robz888, jotheonah, Insomniac, Cuzz, O, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Vote: O

We have to get moving. He's my most likely non-PR scumread, and I'd rather leave the claimed doctors alone since they could save us if they're telling the truth and either way we ought to be able to use their night actions to make a more educated guess about which is lying tomorrow.

[O]

Vote Theorel

My knowledge: I'm town. If Theorel was also town, scum would have pushed through an O lynch and then pinned it on Theorel. They have not succeeded or attempted to do so.

[Robz888]

Sorry for my absence, starting tomorrow I will be back in the game.

I probably agree with leaving Gru and cuzz alone for now, unless during my review one or the other has an extremely suspicious history with sparky. Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow. We should plan to not spend too too much time of course.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-2

Robz888 (1): Grujah
O (1): jotheonah
theorel (1): O

Not voting {4}: Robz888, Insomniac, Cuzz, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[O]

>deafening silence.

[Robz888]

>deafening silence.

I'm beginning my re-read. Should have my thoughts up tonight, at which point I will push hard for one person or another.

[O]

>deafening silence.

I'm beginning my re-read. Should have my thoughts up tonight, at which point I will push hard for one person or another.

Sounds good.

[Robz888]

Some thoughts I am just going to post as I go along. I love little things like this. Here, sparky talks about each player mid way through Day 1. Two of these people are his scumbuddies. Which ones stand out as the most strained or inauthentic? Granted, they are all inauthentic to a degree.

Also UNVOTE: Cuzz. Time to get serious now. I'm gonna do this already. Get my initial thoughts out of the way.


ashersky - Slight town. Posted his opinions on PPS. I like his waffle comment on #88, that actually reads more town to me 
Robz888 - Already said, his behavior is much different this game than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Eevee - Very active. More of a town feeling from him, what PPS mentioned in #151 about him.
Captain_Frisk - Not much here. He's officially contributing to the PPS wagon. Is he scum wanting a speedy lynch? I say he's scum more than town at this point, but I want to see more from him.
cayvie - Not much at all. Neutral read
sparky5856 - Me? I like waffels. Does that make me suspicious?
jotheonah - Also hard on PPS, pushing for his lynch. Haven't played with him yet, so I can't gather a full read. I'll be wary though. Hey, I'm wary all around.
Insomniac - Questioning other players a lot. Seems like different play than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Grujah - Same feelings as Frisk. Something's not right here. Only two posts so far. And he wouldn't rest until I was in my grave in MA Mafia. Also he questioned my RVS vote lol. More scum than town.
Cuzz - Also not much, but he's been away.
pingpongsam - HEY HOWS IT GOIN
O - I've seen scum O push for other people's deaths to the brink, he hasn't done that yet here. Then again O is a dangerous player. Slight town right now.
theorel - All around helpful. Town vibes.

Also nice to see PPS giving reads, which is what I wanted. Honestly, I think he's more likely to turn up town than scum.

I note that he says the exact same things about me and Insomniac. Throughout this re-read, I feel like he wants to be on my good side--perhaps he thinks I am likely to identify him from his previous scum play? It could be the same with Insomniac. I guess this makes me slightly less inclined to see Insomniac as mafia, although already I don't particularly see him as mafia (SK, on the other hand, yes.).

What he says about Grujah, frankly, does not seem like something sparky would say about his scummate. Let's remember that this is his second game--I doubt he knows enough to push hard on a scummate this early.

His Cuzz read is whatever, though it's interesting in light of the fact that he majorly RVS voted Cuzz. I don't know if Cuzz realistically looks like a scummate here either.

His "reads" on Jotheonah, theorel, and O could in my mind easily be thinks one scum says about another here, moreso for Jotheonah and theorel. But perhaps this is just massive confirmation bias on my two biggest suspects.

[Robz888]

A few posts later, theorel ranks sparky as the least likely scum, which is not something I would expect scum-theorel to do...

[Cuzz]

Let's get some discussion going again!

Vote: jotheonah.

This is of course mostly based on jo's adamant anti-sparkylynch position at the end of D2.

Robz's investigation result also does absolutely nothing to reduce my suspicion. Only one scum member has to perform the kill after all.

There was talk of a soft deadline. I support that. Thursday maybe?

[Robz888]

I am still reviewing, but I must say, O thinking I was busing PPS, making us both scum, and him hammering PPS based on that... now strikes me as a completely plausible insane thing that town O might think I was doing. So I continue to read O as quite townish.

[Robz888]

I still don't get why you hammered. I still can't believe that you really believed it was a bus.

If I can't believe the things you say, it means I think you're lying.

Of course, the only reason scum O ... have we considered that Robz and O are scumbuddies, and O hammered PPS to save Robz? And the epic bus is happening TODAY?

I've traced the origins of the patently absurd "O quicklynched PPS to save Robz" theory, and it turns out it was sort of a joint-effort between Jo and Insomniac who proposed it, and theorel who expounded upon it with a long-winded explanation of how O might have been trying to save me. The theory is nutso, because I was never in any danger of dying. You think I had to worry about getting lynched over PPS? I certainly didn't, and neither would O worry about that, if we were scum together.

Again, it's absurd theory, and theorel made the intellectual case for it, and Jo seized upon it.

[Robz888]

One guy that doesn't get any attention or scrutiny and on whom I want to check out next is SPARKY. Everybody seems to miss him entirely.

PPE: 3 new.

There are a couple exchanges between Grujah and sparky (like this one) that I think make them quite unlikely as scum buddies.

I must say, sparky played scum much, much better than in MIX. His posts are completely devoid of useful content, but they didn't appear like that at the time. Points for him. Very hard to get anything out of what he's said, and almost nobody else said much about him, either. A very good under-the-radar scum.

[Robz888]

Meanwhile, will you turn off your blinders for one second and answer my question about that post of Cuzz's? I'm looking everywhere, not just at one person, and this is a good thing.

Real posts to come this evening - but I agree with this approach.

Once I find scum, I stop looking.

But man, Jo really just locks onto me. He comes on a little strong to be mafia. Although I realize I've never seen Jo as scum in a regular game. Right?

[Robz888]

Insomniac:

Still slightly scummy to me. Has been vaguely pushing a Robz wagon since D1. Has defended both pps and O for crazy anti-town behavior. In terms of post content/volume I really think Insomniac is doing everything that people keep accusing me of. Has posted just slightly more than I have, but doesn't seem to have tons of conviction in his posts.

That is a bold accusation, I have been arguing with people and making cases for lynching people you just come in and regurgitate what other people have said and change in the fact that you think I'm scummy. I have defended neither PPS nor O for anti-town behaviour. I don't support lynching anti-town behaviour I support lynching mafia. The old mafia saying that is constantly repeated is "Lynch mafia not scum" and it seems like some of the people in this game have completely forgotten about that saying.

Insomniac's reaction here is so genuine, it says to me, Cuzz and Insomniac could not possibly both be on the same scum team. I mean, I didn't think they were before, but if we killed Cuzz and he was mafia, I would explicitly deny the possbility that Insomniac was also mafia. Someone remind me I said this later...

[Robz888]

Not a "middle finger" dude, just busy. Between classes now so no time for long post. But I wanted to see if there was any chance someone might invite before I claim doc.

You know, sort of suspicious phrasing on Cuzz's claim, now that I look at it. "I claim doc" is not exactly the most convincing way to say it. "I am the doc," is much better. Although I remember being impressed with the evidence for the claim.

[Robz888]

I have to admit, I'm even starting to think Cuzz looks like a caught scum. Which means I have to eat a lot of crow, possibly.

Of course scum Jo would say this. Of course he wants the Doctor lynched. If Cuzz is the Doctor. And Jo is scum.

[Robz888]

And now we wait.

That's L-1 Correct?

Yep. Claim time.

Ugh, I've just seen this.
I've already said that I HATE forced claims.
I was about to write another '"I won't claim" post like I've done in another game, but that doesn't seem to work here, so, hell, and I know that I've called this stupid, but

I claim a Doctor.

I've breadcrumbed this. In my first in-game post, first sentence references "stupid claim" - by which I meant ehunt's Doctor claim in MIX (I've called it stupid claim repediately). Next sentence talks about PPS's oppening post in MVI - that is a post where he crumbed Doctor in MVI (he confirmed this in aftergame chat).

N1 I protected Insomniac as he wasn't scummy and is prone to dying N1.

Slightly intoxicated.

Oh, Grujah uses the "I claim" phraseology too. Maybe it's not so suspicious.

[Robz888]

Sparky reappears from a long VLA, says he disbelieves Grujah's claim over Cuzz's, votes for Grujah.

Grujah is NOT mafia. Sparky wouldn't have done that if they were together.

[Robz888]

Well, he doesn't vote for Grujah. Still. He did previously.

[Robz888]

An intriguing series of posts.

I FIGURED IT OUT.

Jotheonah and sparky are both mafia.

How do I know? Just now, Jotheonah tried to redirect the lynch to me, rather than sparky. He never voted for sparky. He's voted for, like, everybody. But not sparky (it's mutual, fyi).

I think we got them. Who does everybody prefer?

Vote Count 2-18

O (2): theorel, sparky5856
Grujah (2): Cuzz, Insomniac
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Grujah
sparky5856 (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {2}: O, Robz888

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

RObz, please tell me what we learn from a sparky flip.

I will tell you why I've never voted sparky (btw, I've also never voted Insomniac. he must be the third teammate!)

It's because I don't vote for lurkers, in general. I vote for people who engage in behavior that makes me think they're scum. Not just mildly suspect, like, I have to be able to put together a narrative.

And I haven't had that read on sparky all game. I've had no read on him, basically.

Vote: Jotheonah

I think.

Huh? Lots of people haven't voted for me. I don't see what you're trying to say Robz. Explain to me better please; I think you're wrong but I still would like more explanations.

Now I see why everyone is annoyed when I'm not here. The heart of mafia is engaging, and waiting for the others to give unique feedback sucks.

I bolded that sparky post for emphasis, because if I am correct, this is the post that doomed his team. Look how Jo opposes a sparky lynch because he doesn't have enough info, or the flip won't be informational enough (BS reasons at this point), and then look at sparky defend Jo. Why would sparky defend Jo? Sparky should have no interest in defending Jo. I will tell you what this reaction is: this is scum saying, "Hey! Don't suspect my partner because of that! I'm incredulous that you would suspect my partner for something he doesn't deserve to be suspected for!" I've known that reaction before. It's a very natural thing, to want to defend a partner, when you don't like the case against them from an objective standpoint, or think you were ultra devious and resent being called out. We know sparky was scum, and I really think he was trying a bit desperately to shoot down any chance of a sparky-Jo scum team getting discussed.

[Robz888]

And I'm caught up. My apologies for posting 10 times in a row. Here's a person-by-person analysis:

Grujah: Unless Grujah is the Serial Killer, Grujah is town. I don't think he could possibly be on the same scum team as sparky, based on how much sparky came after him. Much of it was non-trivial attack; sparky was anti-grujah at key times. Unless he set out to play a much riskier, and advanced scum game, (his scum game has improved, but it became more subtle, not more risky), Grujah is ruled out as a scum partner.

Cuzz: Cuzz's likelihood of being town fell drastically, but is rebounding a bit. His posts don't seem quite so scummy this time through, they seem genuine. I'm actually back closer to the camp that both Doctors are telling the truth, and we have no Serial Killer. Wouldn't that be nice! Needless to say, I don't think we should lynch either of them today.

Insomniac: Insomniac, along with Grujah, is my main SK contender, but I don't know that there actually is an SK. I currently think he has a very low chance of being scum, mainly because other people I think are scum have put a lot of trust in him, and he's had a couple reactions that read very town-Insomniac to me. But man, he sure did sound like a Serial Killer at the end of yesterday. NNot in favor of lynching him now.

O and Theorel: O has been extremely anti-theorel (and anti-me). Theorel has been extremely anti-O. Otherwise, O is typical O and Theorel is typical theorel. I have had a feeling the whole time that O is town. He seems more like town O. I think if O is mafia, there's a good chance that one of the very vlocally anti-O people (Theorel, possibly Jo) is scum with him. That's the kind of stuff O does, possibly. But right now I have a hard time lumping O in with sparky. They have so little overlap, and O isn't one to ignore his scumbuddies. He has to snipe at them a bit. So I am still discounting O just for now, but will revisit him tomorrow. O should in no way be ruled out. Theorel has been very town-ish in his analysis, but we all know that scum can fake being town, and the kind of info theorel gives is fairly easy for a competent mafia to fake. Now, theorel drove the lynch against sparky at all the right times. However, this is something a shrewd person like theorel would do as scum. I am sure he could have guessed that sparky was going down and it would be wise to be on that wagon. I strongly suspect theorel is scum.

Jotheonah: However, Jo takes the prize over theorel (though I still expect they are both scum). Why? Jo wanted to lynch O. He wanted to lynch me. He supported lynching Grujah. He supported JK claiming and mass-claiming. He supported all these things strongly. The only thing that gave him pause was lynching sparky. If he's not mafia, it's quite a mistake. But it sure looks scummy. There are so many little things, too. Cuzz claims doctor and Jo immediately makes a comment about not believing it and liking my case against him. Add in that I don't like the cases he made against me and O being scumbuddies, and I'm fairly convinced. However, we know he didn't take any action last night, unless a Bus Driver switched him with someone else, or he was the Bus Driver and just chose to do nothing. I think either of these things are so very possible, they ultimately don't give me much pause.

Vote: Jotheonah

If the rest of the town prefers theorel, I may switch to theorel.

[Insomniac]

Nice analysis Robz, I think I'd be willing to vote Jo as well today but I don't want to do it yet as we have tons of time and obviously Jo is gonna have something to say about being called scum. Plus he already has 2 votes on him I'd like to see a bit more discussion before he gets to 3 so for obvious reasons I will not be voting just yet.

[theorel]

Reading through Robz' posts, 2 things.
1. If both doctors are telling the truth, AND Robz is telling the truth, there IS a SK.  I'd accuse this as a scum-slip, but since Frisk, Robz, and myself all got it wrong yesterday it's just notable that it's wrong.  So, @Robz: if Cuzz and Grujah and you are all telling the truth, SK exists.  If Cuzz, Grujah, or you are lying, (and only one of you), then there is NO SK.

2. I don't *think* I've ever given a reason why Robz and O could be scumbuddies with O quick-hammering to protect Robz.  I personally thought it was a pretty weak theory from the beginning, though I don't think I ever said so.  I said O could have been protecting either Cuzz or Sparky by quick-hammering, as that makes a whole lot more sense.  I said that O flipping scum would implicate sparky, and have stated today that sparky flipping town implicates O by the same argument.  Anyways, I assume I'm being misunderstood somewhere, maybe when I was arguing for how weak O's case for a Robz-PPS pair was?  (I pointed out the illogic of saying Robz was scum for pushing PPS-wagon, and then switching to Robz' too obvious to be pushing the PPS-wagon if PPS is town, and then concluding that PPS must be scum rather than the simpler Robz is town explanation)

Anyways, to clarify I still don't think Robz-O are scumbuddies.  From my POV, these two are most likely:
1. Cuzz-joth mafia.  This is probably the most likely case from my perspective.

2. Cuzz-O mafia.  This one's a little weaker than 2, but still likely enough.

After this, the rest of the possibilities either require a SK (and seem weak because of unlikelihood of SK), OR just seem weak based on player behavior.
In particular:
Insomniac/Grujah, don't seem likely as mafia.  That's some strong bussing through the day.  OTOH, maybe Grujah thought he'd die and sparky would live through WIFOM?  At this point, I don't really think Grujah is lying, but it is possible.
Insomniac doesn't seem likely as SK, based on 1. above, besides the fact that SK-itself seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

Robz doesn't pair well with O or joth IMO.  That leaves Robz-Cuzz, which requires a SK.

And then there's the possibility where all PRs are honest, and we have a SK.  I dunno, pairing two of the three and leaving the last as SK doesn't make good sense.
O thinks Insom is scum, joth town.  (thinks theo=scum)
joth things O is scum, Insom town.  (thinks theo=town I think)
Insom thinks joth is scum, O is town. (thinks theo=town? not exactly sure here)

theo thinks O and joth are scum, thinks Insom is town.  (well, I only think ONE of joth/O are scum.  Which unfortunately may mean that O is town.  Which is ridiculous, because he's the WORST TOWN PLAYER EVER.)

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-3

Robz888 (1): Grujah
O (1): jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (2): Cuzz, Robz888

Not voting {2}: Insomniac, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Cuzz]

I'm still not convinced that Grujah is telling the truth, but I don't see any downside to the following proposal:

Grujah, if (big if) we are fortunate enough to lynch the mafia busdriver today, will you agree to protect me tonight, and I'll do the same for you? That would leave only the mafia JOAT left, and he can't kill and roleblock in the same night.

Of course, if the busdriver is still alive tonight, we shouldn't give any indication of whom we plan to protect.

[theorel]

@Cuzz, I think that only really works well if Robz is lying.

The issue is that if either of you is lying it fails to verify you, and wastes doctor protection.  (unless the one of you that is mafia outs yourself)

Suppose for instance that Grujah is the mafia JOAT.  Then he agrees, and you protect him, meanwhile he kills Robz.  He can do so, and be guaranteed of success because you said you would protect him 100% of the time.

I think a mixed strategy is still best, weighted according to whichever PR you trust the most, but randomized among the other two claimants.  Weighting should be kept secret so that mafia don't know who to target.

Note also, if all three of you are telling the truth (unlikely though it seems to me), then the mafia could still kill Robz under your strategy, and we would still know nothing.  Better to give the mafia at least a chance of failing to get their NK.  Especially if the only one left might actually fail to get it.

[Cuzz]

@Cuzz, I think that only really works well if Robz is lying.

The issue is that if either of you is lying it fails to verify you, and wastes doctor protection.  (unless the one of you that is mafia outs yourself)

Suppose for instance that Grujah is the mafia JOAT.  Then he agrees, and you protect him, meanwhile he kills Robz.  He can do so, and be guaranteed of success because you said you would protect him 100% of the time.

I think a mixed strategy is still best, weighted according to whichever PR you trust the most, but randomized among the other two claimants.  Weighting should be kept secret so that mafia don't know who to target.

Note also, if all three of you are telling the truth (unlikely though it seems to me), then the mafia could still kill Robz under your strategy, and we would still know nothing.  Better to give the mafia at least a chance of failing to get their NK.  Especially if the only one left might actually fail to get it.

This is a good point actually. Not sure why I missed that. Town points for you, theorel.

[jotheonah]

I'll admit that I haven't played this game very well. I've latched on to anti-town behaviors that in retrospect are either proven town (PPS's insta-VT claim) or are now looking townier (O's quicklynch). And I've locked onto suspicious claims, which are also usually a good way to catch scum. For one reason or another the stuff that usually works hasn't worked this game.

Maybe it has, maybe Robz and O really are scum and Robz "investigating" me as no action was a brilliant move to finally get me off his case, since I think I made it pretty clear that I wouldn't budge from it any other way.  But to go through the trouble of gaining my trust just to launch a mega-case on ... me. Odd but not impossible.

I locked onto Robz because of my experience with Robz, which is that he's better than anyone else at convincing me he's town when he's scum.  The only counter I know of for this is for me to really dig in when I suspect him. I'm sorry that it's made me look scummy, but if I get lynched, I hope the rest of you will really scrutinize him closely. I still don't trust him or the way he's been running the day (granted, a lot of that is the rest of us are so lost we're not posting.)

Case against Robz:
Both his claims are easy and obvious
 - He claimed Tracker when he knew it was a remaining possible role, and he claimed to have tracked someone whose results could be deduced from the lynch flip. He had plenty of time to craft a fake claim, something I know from experience scumRobz does ahead of time.
 - Today he claimed to have tracked me, but if he's mafia he knows I'm vanilla town (remember the   mafia have enough info to know if there's a SK at this point, so he can confidently say I did nothing and get some extra cred. This convinced me at the start of the day, but now I see it as a safe option. I think if you lynch me today, you should make Robz track one of the doctors and see if he can correctly name your target tomorrow.
 - His push on the PPS lynch day one as hard and scummy, I know you all thought so at the time.
 - O behaved strangely (quicklynched) when he (Robz) was on the chopping block, and though Robz asserts that this is absurd, I totally believe they could have trusted their collective abilities to talk their way out of it Day 2, as they, in fact, did.

Vote: Robz

I don't think I'll convince you guys. But I hope I can set you up to win tomorrow.

[jotheonah]

Additionally, the fact that he
(A) argued yesterday to keep himself alive because his power is valuable
(B) used that power on me and cleared me
and
(C) now wants to lynch me
should raise red flags. Either his power isn't really valuable and he was using a specious argument to save himself yesterday, or his power should be enough to focus the lynch elsewhere.

[Robz888]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence, they change based on how dangerous the person is to him. For instance, when I began today by saying that I tracked Jo and he didn't do anything, he thought this meant I wasn't coming after him, and he said it made him more likely to believe my claim. But now that I am coming after him anyway, he's voting for me. He has a survivalist mentality that makes it him vs. me, even though just because I am pushing for him doesn't mean, and shouldn't make it so in his mind, that I am scum.

We need 4 to lynch. Cuzz, Insomniac, and I will all vote for Joth. I take it from theorel's comments that he prefers to lynch Cuzz, but is okay with a Joth lynch (which is exactly what I would expect from theorel, if he is indeed Joth's scummate). Can everybody else weigh in on whether they are okay with a Jo lynch? Or, express support for his preference, a lynch of the town Tracker?

Please, you know, weigh in soon. It was a littl mystifying to me that the whole town halted and waited for me to review. Of course that happens in other games, too, but we have a time limit here, people.

@Theorel, thanks for correcting my mistake and pointing out that 6 Prs = SK. If I have to disbelieve one of the PRs, I don't know what to do. Cuzz is of course more likely mafia, because Grujah ISN'T mafia, but Grujah could be SK, I think.

[jotheonah]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence,

says the guy who cleared me with his power role and is now voting for me.

[Robz888]

You know what else is super scummy about Jo? His opinions on people don't change based on the evidence,

says the guy who cleared me with his power role and is now voting for me.

I didn't "Clear" you with my power role. I reported what you did, which was nothing. But there are two easy ways to get around i: your mafia cohort Bus Drove you, or you are the Bus Driver and just did nothing.

Of course I found myself thinking you were less likely to be scum. But after reviewing the thread, it remains that your record is the most scummy, both separately and in conjunction with sparky.

[theorel]

@Robz: I think I would rather lynch joth than Cuzz.  I hold to previously stated opinion that it's probably better not to lynch a PR-claim today, even though I think Cuzz is the best match for the VT-claims that I suspect.  I think Cuzz is more likely than jo or O to flip scum, but I think the cost of lynching him if he's town is higher.  Therefore I still think the best utility comes from lynching O or jo.  (I think my position on this has been pretty consistent all day)

[jotheonah]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

[Insomniac]

@Robz: I didn't hold up and wait for your analysis, I was busy myself since it was Thanksgiving up here in Canada and so it made sense since I was absent anyway.

(Still don't want jo at 3)

[Cuzz]

Please, you know, weigh in soon. It was a littl mystifying to me that the whole town halted and waited for me to review. Of course that happens in other games, too, but we have a time limit

I was waiting partly due to V/LA and partly because I'm almost certain Robz is town and value his promised input.

Now, the fact that everyone else seemed to be holding back waiting for Robz as well makes me feel like everyone else also either suspects or knows Robz to be town. This makes me really suspicious of anyone voting for Robz.

He's been oozing townvibes all game and I really doubt even he could fake it that well. None of the arguments against him have made any sense to me, to the point that those making them seem like scum. (Could he actually be scum? Of course, but as town I'm unfortunate enough not to know the setup and have to go on my gut/evidence).

This is all also a big part of my reason to vote: jotheonah

[Robz888]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Didn't mean to ignore this. I'm not opposed to it, but I don't think it's as easy as all this, because still, the Bus Driver could mess us up, or ninja kills get in the way. And it won't really help me catch scum with my power, because let's say I track Cuzz, CUzz targeted theorel, and theorel died. Cuzz will just say he protected theorel and theorel was strongman killed. But anyway, I'm not opposed to this plan, and if people insist on me tracking Cuzz/Grujah, I will do so. However, at present I am likely to make an informed decision after the flip, so as not to tip the scum off to who I will track.

FYI, I certainly hope Grujah and Cuzz do not just pledge to protect each other. Please randomly protect me too!

[Cuzz]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Trying to direct the tracker away from your scumbuddy?

[jotheonah]

Please, you know, weigh in soon. It was a littl mystifying to me that the whole town halted and waited for me to review. Of course that happens in other games, too, but we have a time limit

I was waiting partly due to V/LA and partly because I'm almost certain Robz is town and value his promised input.

Now, the fact that everyone else seemed to be holding back waiting for Robz as well makes me feel like everyone else also either suspects or knows Robz to be town. This makes me really suspicious of anyone voting for Robz.

He's been oozing townvibes all game and I really doubt even he could fake it that well. None of the arguments against him have made any sense to me, to the point that those making them seem like scum. (Could he actually be scum? Of course, but as town I'm unfortunate enough not to know the setup and have to go on my gut/evidence).

This is all also a big part of my reason to vote: jotheonah

Does this mean when I flip town you'll reconsider?

[jotheonah]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Trying to direct the tracker away from your scumbuddy?

If that's your concern, agree only to do it if I flip town. (Which I will)

[Robz888]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Trying to direct the tracker away from your scumbuddy?

Right, there's that aspect too.

[Insomniac]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Didn't mean to ignore this. I'm not opposed to it, but I don't think it's as easy as all this, because still, the Bus Driver could mess us up, or ninja kills get in the way. And it won't really help me catch scum with my power, because let's say I track Cuzz, CUzz targeted theorel, and theorel died. Cuzz will just say he protected theorel and theorel was strongman killed. But anyway, I'm not opposed to this plan, and if people insist on me tracking Cuzz/Grujah, I will do so. However, at present I am likely to make an informed decision after the flip, so as not to tip the scum off to who I will track.

FYI, I certainly hope Grujah and Cuzz do not just pledge to protect each other. Please randomly protect me too!

That definetly makes Cuzz guilty because he targeted Frisk and claims that Frisk was strongmanned we know mafia can only do it once, and I highly doubt the presense of a serial killer based on whats happened.

[Insomniac]

Addendum, I definetly think Robz should make his own secret decision as opposed to being told what to do and letting mafia know how to treat the scenario.

[Cuzz]

Please, you know, weigh in soon. It was a littl mystifying to me that the whole town halted and waited for me to review. Of course that happens in other games, too, but we have a time limit

I was waiting partly due to V/LA and partly because I'm almost certain Robz is town and value his promised input.

Now, the fact that everyone else seemed to be holding back waiting for Robz as well makes me feel like everyone else also either suspects or knows Robz to be town. This makes me really suspicious of anyone voting for Robz.

He's been oozing townvibes all game and I really doubt even he could fake it that well. None of the arguments against him have made any sense to me, to the point that those making them seem like scum. (Could he actually be scum? Of course, but as town I'm unfortunate enough not to know the setup and have to go on my gut/evidence).

This is all also a big part of my reason to vote: jotheonah

Does this mean when I flip town you'll reconsider?

No. When you flip town, causing me to have been grossly mistaken about one of my strongest reads, I will not reconsider any of my other reads. /s

[O]

I very much prefer a theorel lynch to a Jotheonah lynch.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-4

Robz888 (2): Grujah, jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (2): Cuzz, Robz888

Not voting {2}: Insomniac, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[Robz888]

Well, I would encourage Insomniac and theorel to allow for perhaps one more day of discussion, and then go for it.

I don't get Grujah in this game, but whatever.

[Insomniac]

Well, I would encourage Insomniac and theorel to allow for perhaps one more day of discussion, and then go for it.

I don't get Grujah in this game, but whatever.

That's all I really want before voting, I think that Jo is likely scum, but I don't think we need to close this day early either. I don't feel like we've heard a whole lot from Grujah for example and as one of my scum candidates (from the VP perspective) I'd like to make sure that all the PR's have a fair amount of substance to hold them accountable to make the PoE easier when we do need to eventually lynch a claimed PR.

[Robz888]

Well, I would encourage Insomniac and theorel to allow for perhaps one more day of discussion, and then go for it.

I don't get Grujah in this game, but whatever.

That's all I really want before voting, I think that Jo is likely scum, but I don't think we need to close this day early either. I don't feel like we've heard a whole lot from Grujah for example and as one of my scum candidates (from the VP perspective) I'd like to make sure that all the PR's have a fair amount of substance to hold them accountable to make the PoE easier when we do need to eventually lynch a claimed PR.

Yeah, that's fair. Grujah is so weird in this game. I can hardly believe it's the same Grujah from MIX and MVI. He just lurks so much here! I would really believe he was the SK just on the basis of how absurdly different he is behaving. But he really can't be aligned with sparky, I think.

[Cuzz]

Well, if I can't convince you otherwise I guess we should get on with it and lynch me before we run out the clock more than we have to. The end of the game will show whether I played as poorly as it seems or whether Robz and O simply played a bold, brilliant game.

If nothing else, I urge you to consider the plan for clearing Robz I brought up that he ignored:

Have Robz target a doctor (don't announce which). Have Robz (if he's alive) announce which one he targeted tomorrow, and the result of his track.  Have the doctor verify the target. 

So far we've given Robz obvtown status on the basis of easily faked claims. If nothing else, you guys have to put a stop to that tomorrow.

Didn't mean to ignore this. I'm not opposed to it, but I don't think it's as easy as all this, because still, the Bus Driver could mess us up, or ninja kills get in the way. And it won't really help me catch scum with my power, because let's say I track Cuzz, CUzz targeted theorel, and theorel died. Cuzz will just say he protected theorel and theorel was strongman killed. But anyway, I'm not opposed to this plan, and if people insist on me tracking Cuzz/Grujah, I will do so. However, at present I am likely to make an informed decision after the flip, so as not to tip the scum off to who I will track.

FYI, I certainly hope Grujah and Cuzz do not just pledge to protect each other. Please randomly protect me too!

That definetly makes Cuzz guilty because he targeted Frisk and claims that Frisk was strongmanned we know mafia can only do it once, and I highly doubt the presense of a serial killer based on whats happened.

Well, I would encourage Insomniac and theorel to allow for perhaps one more day of discussion, and then go for it.

I don't get Grujah in this game, but whatever.

That's all I really want before voting, I think that Jo is likely scum, but I don't think we need to close this day early either. I don't feel like we've heard a whole lot from Grujah for example and as one of my scum candidates (from the VP perspective) I'd like to make sure that all the PR's have a fair amount of substance to hold them accountable to make the PoE easier when we do need to eventually lynch a claimed PR.

Why so certain that there's no SK, guy-who's-been-accused-of-being-SK?

Sure there's some missing night kills but there are many plausible explanations for that.

[jotheonah]

A lot of you guys have played with me before. I know your guts are telling you I'm town.

[Robz888]

A lot of you guys have played with me before. I know your guts are telling you I'm town.

My gut does tell me that, sort-of. Am I worried this is MIV all over again? Sort-of. But the evidence says you are scum. You have been wildly in favor of lynching each and every PR, before and after their claims. You wanted everything yesterday... except a sparky lynch.

[Insomniac]

As a scientist I doubt things until proven their existence. Since I have only been given MORE evidence that there is not a SK I will continue to doubt it until given evidence of the contrary.

[Grujah]

I'm still not convinced that Grujah is telling the truth, but I don't see any downside to the following proposal:

Grujah, if (big if) we are fortunate enough to lynch the mafia busdriver today, will you agree to protect me tonight, and I'll do the same for you? That would leave only the mafia JOAT left, and he can't kill and roleblock in the same night.

Of course, if the busdriver is still alive tonight, we shouldn't give any indication of whom we plan to protect.

Depends on lynch result. As I said, with no substantial proof of SK, I am most suspicious of you and Robz. Robz flipping mafia would completely clear you in my eyes, as would an SK flip. Otherwise I would have to re-evaluate the situation and see what I find most likely to be true.

[Cuzz]

I'm still not convinced that Grujah is telling the truth, but I don't see any downside to the following proposal:

Grujah, if (big if) we are fortunate enough to lynch the mafia busdriver today, will you agree to protect me tonight, and I'll do the same for you? That would leave only the mafia JOAT left, and he can't kill and roleblock in the same night.

Of course, if the busdriver is still alive tonight, we shouldn't give any indication of whom we plan to protect.

Depends on lynch result. As I said, with no substantial proof of SK, I am most suspicious of you and Robz. Robz flipping mafia would completely clear you in my eyes, as would an SK flip. Otherwise I would have to re-evaluate the situation and see what I find most likely to be true.

I've actually nixed this idea after theorel's comment. We need to protect Robz with some probability.

[Grujah]

Jotheonah: However, Jo takes the prize over theorel (though I still expect they are both scum). Why? Jo wanted to lynch O. He wanted to lynch me. He supported lynching Grujah. He supported JK claiming and mass-claiming. He supported all these things strongly. The only thing that gave him pause was lynching sparky. If he's not mafia, it's quite a mistake. But it sure looks scummy.

Ugh, these are some actually valid points. Mostly I hate massclaimsupport, but it was town-CF's idea which is weird.I also hate these recent of his "you're gut tells you I'm town". It's trying to make his voters feel guilty, it's a low-blow
But his overly-agresive pushing of O, ("VOTE O VOTE O VOTE O") was just soo town-jo, and there were other things that slip my mind right now .. blaarghsigh.


I'd still very much prefer a Robz or possibly Cuzz lynch as no SK has presented itself yet.

[O]

So lynch Theorel. He fits all the scumminess that Joth fits, and has the added benefit of being my choice if you trust me over Robz (I think Robz is town but obviously would rather I pick the lynch over him).

I haven't seen convincing arguments for why Joth is a good lynch compared to Theorel, and I think Joth's activity is very much like his town activity (AKA he's amazingly wrong most of the time).

[theorel]

Okay, so I thought some more about it.  I'm not so sure about the joth lynch.

I do think he's the most likely VT to be sparky's pratner.  BUT that's not good enough to lynch him.  I thought lynching VT was better when the day started, since it was better yesterday, and a lot of the heuristic arguments still applied.  What I failed to consider was the worst-case scenario.  I thought about that on my way home from work, and it's not pretty.  To clarify, worst-case scenario is that we have a SK.  Now, we're probably not in that scenario, it seems reasonably unlikely given that we have NO unexplained deaths.  HOWEVER, if we're not in that scenario, we're actually in pretty good shape, and we have lots of time, and we should talk about it.  So, I'll keep things concrete and talk about the worst-case scenario assuming we lynch joth, then I'll talk about some generalities, and then we should discuss what we're going to do.  Mostly this involves talking about the SK possibility...is it unlikely? sure.  But it's possible.  It's also BAD for town if we ignore it.  I'll end off with some general notes about why I don't like the joth lynch.

Okay, first: worst-case scenario assuming joth lynch.  joth flips town, and we have a SK.  It doesn't really matter who's who, but for concreteness I'll say Insomniac is SK, and Robz-Cuzz are mafia.
Now, worst-case scenario for town is: Insomniac kills Grujah, Robz kills Insomniac.  And, oh look we just lost. (2v2)
Or maybe we get Robz kills O Insom kills Grujah.  Now it's 2v1v1.  And, I'm not exactly sure what happens if everyone dies...town and SK can nolynch, if mafia kills SK they win, otherwise we all die (which probably shouldn't qualify as a town win).
Then we have Robz kills Grujah, Insom kills Robz.  Now it's 1v2v1, and town still needs to nolynch.  scum wants to kill each other while someone targets town.  It's a weird no-win situation for scum, so they should probably try to avoid it...though they might hit it accidentally.  There is a possible SK-win here if mafia don't kill him, and he does kill them.
Finally Robz kills Insom, Insom kills Robz.  Now it goes to 1v3 and town can win if we don't mislynch.  (50/50 shot at random).

So, a lot here depends on night-kills...I could game-theory optimal choices (like I did in MIV spectator), but a lot depends on if the scum choose accurately.

Second analysis, let's suppose we lynch mafia today (still in the having a SK case).  So, joth is mafia with partner O and Insomniac is SK.  (again for concreteness, all of these are interchangeable with appropriate numbers of PR-claims etc.)
Okay, so we lynch scum, this should be good for us.  Now, SK and mafia know who each other are with 50/50 probability.  But, they can convince town to lynch the other faction, and not convince them to lynch town, so their optimal play is to NK town, specifically the PRs (which are all true in this case).
Suppose they kill 2 town PRs.
then we have 2 town v. 1 mafia, and 1 SK.
town should no-lynch.  mafia/SK try to kill each other and hope the other misses.  Assuming targeting at random that's a 1/3 chance for each side to win.
Note: If they only hit one PR, they can convince town to lynch another PR, and be in the same situation.  Probably town would do it naturally anyways.

Third analysis.  Let's suppose we lynch the SK today.  then going into tonight we have 2 mafia, and 4 town.  mafia kills 1 town, and we go to lylo, with the choice to lynch VT-claims or PR-claims.  KNOWING that it's either 2 PRs or 2 VTs.  I think we could probably figure it out, and stand a decent chance of winning...although there's some chance scum pull it out.

Fourth analysis.  okay, so you're sick of all of the "what if there's a SK" stuff.  So, what if there ISN'T a SK?
Suppose we lynch a townie today.  Then we go into lylo tomorrow, knowing that it's 1 VT and 1 PR.  I think we would stand a decent shot of winning
Suppose we lynch mafia...then if we lynch a VT, we get a 1/3 chance of the right lynch tomorrow.  Note: this means if we lynch scum, the PRs should probably factor in a decent probability of protecting the VT-claims, since mafia would be giving us a 50/50 shot if they shoot another PR-claim.

Okay, so what about joth?
Well, Robz and Cuzz want to lynch him.  Grujah wanted to lynch sparky.  That doesn't seem right to me.  Something's wrong here, and suggests we're looking in the wrong place.  This led me to think about the SK-possibility, and realize that things are actually potentially very dangerous if the SK exists.  Of course defending joth if he flips scum will look really bad...so maybe Cuzz is just hoping to fly under the radar?  I dunno...it seems more likely that Cuzz would push a town-player (or Robz would push a town player) because they know they NEED a mislynch at this point to stand a chance.  Grujah is pushing Robz alongside joth.

tl;dr: What should we do about the SK-possibility?  (I don't think ignoring it completely is a good idea, but it certainly hurts our win-chance to try to lynch a SK if it doesn't exist).  If (and only if) we go after the SK I think we should consider PR targets, otherwise we should stick to VT-claims.  I think joth is a weak target given Robz/Cuzz' willingness to lynch and general anti-sparkyness of Grujah.  NOTE: If you think I'm joth's mafia-partner, then you should consider that you're implicitly accepting the existence of a SK.  If you think there's a SK, you need to consider the above.  (of course, in this scenario you've deluded yourself into thinking I'm scum, so you should work it out yourself to make sure I'm honest)

[Robz888]

Unvote

Have to think some things over.

[Cuzz]

@theorel:

I have a little trouble following some of these large arguments with lots of cases because my eyes glaze over when I get to the parts in which I might be scum. But mostly I have a problem with the structure of your argument. You seem to be describing a hypothetical world in which we know whether or not there is a serial killer, but we don't know important things like who the serial killer is, who are sparky's partners, which PRs are lying if any, etc. So how does this help us make a decision? Isn't good old fashioned scumhunting a better bet?

You claim at the beginning that joth is most likely to be sparky's partner among VT claims. But this does not lead you to think he's a good lynch? The only scenario in which these beliefs are compatible is the one in which the two remaining scum are claimed PRs. Do you really think that's all that likely? If not, let's lynch joth.

And on a slightly unrelated note, are people gonna keep accusing me of flying under the radar no matter what I do?

[Insomniac]

Theorel, you are failing to note that IF there is an SK ALL of the claims are true, OR 2 are false.

[Robz888]

Regarding the Serial Killer, if we have one, I don't think he has strong/ninja shots. Even though strong/ninja shots are probably better for our game than bulletproof, I can still see an SK picking bulletproof. I mean, he didn't know there were going to be two or three protection roles and a tracker, and default choice is the bulletproof.

I just can't believe we have an SK with strong/ninja shots that didn't produce a second scum kill either night.

[Insomniac]

Expanding upon this.

Theorel if there is an SK then you know that EITHER
1) Jo/Insom/O are ALL scum
--or--
2) 2 of Robz/Cuzz/Grujah, and 1 of Jo/Insom/O are scum.

BUT if there ISNT an SK then you know that
1) EXACTLY ONE of Robz/Grujah/Cuzz is lying AND ONE of Jo/Insom/O are lying


So from your point of view you should absolutely want to lynch one of Jo/O and Myself if there is an SK as it is at best a 100% chance of hitting scum (assuming you have a town PM) and at worst 33% chance. Where as lynching a PR gives you a at best 66% chance and at worst a 0% chance.

In the LATTER scenario you have a 33% chance regardless of where you choose to lynch.

THUS assuming you have a town PM as a vanilla townie it is better to lynch one of the vanilla townies that you find scummy.

Now lets have a look at what your suggestion of lynching a PR today suggests.

Giving the SK a 50% chance (which is high based on the lack of outside nightkills) the PR group has a 33% (66/2=33) chance of hitting scum. AND if we are wrong which will happen 67% of the time we lose EITHER a protective role which could shield us from mafia/sk or lynching the tracker which might be able to find scum.

Again giving the SK a 50% chance lynching a VT has a (50+33/2=41.5) 41.5% chance of hitting scum AND doesn't risk screwing us out of our PR's night actions.

FoS: Theorel for not thinking about the math before suggesting lynching a PR. AND for assuming the SK has a probability of 50%+ of being here which based on the evidence presented is strictly not the case.

[Robz888]

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Two PR liars is impossible, because at least 1 Doctor has to be real for the Jailkeeper to exist, and we know the JK exists. So from my perspective this is impossible.

[Robz888]

Okay, so henceforth I consider Grujah completely acquitted. Does everyone understand why I reached that conclusion? Him and Cuzz can't both be lying, and if they are both telling the truth obviously neither of them could be the SK, and if one is lying and the other telling the truth, there is no SK. So Grujah can't be SK. And for reasons I elaborated on earlier, Grujah certainly looks like the least likely person to be sparky's scummate.

[Robz888]

If we really don't think there's a Serial Killer, we have to lynch Cuzz. But there could be a bulletproof SK, I think.

If there IS a SK, then I'm back to it being Insomniac, with Jo and Theorel being mafia.

Gar. Not ready to end the day, obviously.

[Insomniac]

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Two PR liars is impossible, because at least 1 Doctor has to be real for the Jailkeeper to exist, and we know the JK exists. So from my perspective this is impossible.

This ALSO isn't true, If we roll ONE protective role there is a 50/50 chance that its jailkeeper or doctor. Therefore both doctors COULD be lying.

[Insomniac]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

[Robz888]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

Expletive, expletive, expletive. Yeah, you're right. Sorry about that. Ugh. That they are both lying is the most mathematically plausible explanation, I suppose.

[Robz888]

Can everyone PLEASE take a moment to read the setup, all the speculation going around lately is completely false.

Expletive, expletive, expletive. Yeah, you're right. Sorry about that. Ugh. That they are both lying is the most mathematically plausible explanation, I suppose.

I mean in terms of odds of how many town PRs, etc. That would also mean yes to the Serial Killer, right? God I have to check aGAIN.

[Robz888]

When we lose this, we can blame ashersky for taking a shot on Night 1, and Eevee for being obvhider to scum.

[Robz888]

When we lose this, we can blame ashersky for taking a shot on Night 1, and Eevee for being obvhider to scum.

Sorry, I'm just proactively abdicating responsibility now.

[Robz888]

There is no SK, because we've had no unexplained deaths, therefore exactly 1 town PR is lying, therefore it must be Cuzz. Vote: Cuzz

Is this really what I'm going with now? I guess it is.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-5

Robz888 (2): Grujah, jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (1): Cuzz
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not voting {2}: Insomniac, theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

Expanding upon this.

Theorel if there is an SK then you know that EITHER
1) Jo/Insom/O are ALL scum
--or--
2) 2 of Robz/Cuzz/Grujah, and 1 of Jo/Insom/O are scum.

BUT if there ISNT an SK then you know that
1) EXACTLY ONE of Robz/Grujah/Cuzz is lying AND ONE of Jo/Insom/O are lying


So from your point of view you should absolutely want to lynch one of Jo/O and Myself if there is an SK as it is at best a 100% chance of hitting scum (assuming you have a town PM) and at worst 33% chance. Where as lynching a PR gives you a at best 66% chance and at worst a 0% chance.

In the LATTER scenario you have a 33% chance regardless of where you choose to lynch.

THUS assuming you have a town PM as a vanilla townie it is better to lynch one of the vanilla townies that you find scummy.

Now lets have a look at what your suggestion of lynching a PR today suggests.

Giving the SK a 50% chance (which is high based on the lack of outside nightkills) the PR group has a 33% (66/2=33) chance of hitting scum. AND if we are wrong which will happen 67% of the time we lose EITHER a protective role which could shield us from mafia/sk or lynching the tracker which might be able to find scum.

Again giving the SK a 50% chance lynching a VT has a (50+33/2=41.5) 41.5% chance of hitting scum AND doesn't risk screwing us out of our PR's night actions.

FoS: Theorel for not thinking about the math before suggesting lynching a PR. AND for assuming the SK has a probability of 50%+ of being here which based on the evidence presented is strictly not the case.

Obviously I was not clear...
1. I do NOT think there is a 50%+ chance of a SK.  I think there is A chance of a SK, and ignoring it would be bad.
2. I do not think we should necessarily lynch a PR if we decide to hunt a SK.  I think we should consider it.  What I actually meant was: If we're going SK-hunting then we need to consider PRs just as much as VTs.  When I was initially thinking things through, I wasn't sure how much it benefited town to lynch SK vs. mafia.  I'm still not exactly sure, because a lot depends on whether the SK and mafia can determine each other after we lynch mafia.  I HYPOTHESIZE that it's actually worse for town to lynch mafia in this case.  However, it's better to lynch mafia than VT.  So, we might be best going after the most likely SK among the VTs?  All of this is moot if we don't think it's worth it to hunt the SK.  I feel like it's an open question.

Theorel, you are failing to note that IF there is an SK ALL of the claims are true, OR 2 are false.

Read case 1 again (all claims true with SK), now read case2 (2 claims false with SK).  I'm pretty sure I covered both of these cases...you could object to my choices of examples, but I pretty clearly stated that these were examples, and the individuals were interchangeable.

Anyways, the first line of my post is slightly off, it should say: I consider joth to be most likely to be scum ALONE.  But I don't like his partnering options among the PRs.  Additionally, I don't think we should just be sweeping SK-possibilities under the rug.  Is the chance slim? yes.  But that doesn't mean it's not important.

[theorel]

Let me try to state explicitly and succinctly what I mean, since I'm failing at doing so.  This will be a short stand alone post to help people not skim it.

1. If there is a SK, AND it's better to lynch the SK than mafia, THEN we should be looking for SK-tells which will have VERY LITTLE to do with Sparky.

2. If there is not a SK, then it doesn't matter and we should be looking for mafia, which means we're looking for a person who could be sparky's partner and have a partner on the other side of the claim-fence.

We do NOT know which of the above is true, based on events so far (no extra NK) 1 seems unlikely.  However, an unlikely event doesn't mean we should ignore it.  Consider, if ignoring it led to loss 100% of the time, while addressing it led to victory 100% of the time, then even if it had a 20% chance of being true, it would be really important.  The numbers here are more complicated (even if we assume full random decisions), but I was initially concerned that ignoring it could be about that bad.  If you want to look at the analysis appropriately, here are how the cases break down: Cases 1 and 2 are essentially "what if we ignore the SK-possibility".  Case 3 is "what if we pay attention, and are right".  Case 4 is "what if we pay attention, and are wrong".

So, there are 5 variables (from my POV) that essentially determine whether SK-hunting is actually worth it in this case.  Note: This is assuming we're successful, since if it isn't worth it when we're successful it certainly isn't worth it if we might fail.:
A. What's the probability we win if we don't hunt the SK (and it exists)?  (i.e. prob(lose) in case1 and 2)
B. What's the probability we win if we don't hunt the SK (and it doesn't exist)? (i.e. prob(win) in case 4b)
C. What's the probability we win if we do hunt the SK (and it exists)?  (i.e. prob(win) in case 3)
D. What's the probability we win if we do hunt the SK (and it doesn't exist)? (i.e. prob(win) in case 4a)
E. What's the probability the SK exists.

Then, if you take the letters above as variables, I think the question is, what's the comparison between:
A*E + B*(1-E)  (this is win-chance if we don't hunt SK) and
C*E + D*(1-E)  (win-chance if we do hunt the SK).

I would argue that a pure-random model is a bad model here (although I used those numbers in my case analysis), because it feels like lynching mafia will lead to lynching mafia again.  I would argue that E is difficult to estimate, and largely going to be subjective.
So, considering all of that I would heuristically say:
A is small.  B is large.  C is around 50%, D is around 50%.  E is small.
I think any over-estimation on C and D are made up for by overestimation of B.
So, I guess my final conclusion is that we're probably better off not hunting the SK.  I'd appreciate if another townie was willing to weigh in on that, using strong logic rather than saying "SK probably doesn't exist, just ignore it".

[Grujah]

@Theo

Dude, you cannot "solve" mafia with math. It's not a math probability problem, it's who you think is scum problem.

Okay, once again... don't know why I have such a hard time keeping straight.

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

One PR liar means there is NOT a SK. I do not think Grujah could possibly be aligned with sparky, based on how aggressively they went after each other. But he also couldn't be SK, because there is no SK in this scenario. So actually, Grujah is neither SK nor mafia from my perspective. I don't know why this took me so long to deduce, but there it is. Which means if there is no SK, Cuzz is definitely the liar.

Somethnig like this goes in my head:

1) if we have an SK, either:

a) nobody is lying and a kill is missing both N1 and N2 (not impossible, but kinda a strech, though with 2 docs and JK, bulletproofness and busdriving and hiding, this could have happen)

b) Both you and Cuzz are scum and are lying. Which would mean that you most likely shot cayvie and blamed ashersky, but don't know why you didn't blame jo with anything, probably as you might be next on the block in that case? Not sure.

2) If there is no SK, either:

a) you are lying, didn't blame jo cuz you know there is no SK and would get into trouble otherwise.

b) Cuzz is lying, you are an incompetent Tracker
 
(I also see a very slim possibility of VT lying to get lynched cuz he is Vengeful, but I find this very unlikely cuz it's wasting towns resources a lot, and only one I can imagine doing so is O, but I am willing to disregard these)


Occam's Razor says I should take one hypothesis that makes least assumptions. That's 2. Between a) and b), I find you more scummy. But while writing this I saw that I kinda started tunneling you and didn't focus nearly enough on Cuzz.. argh, I should go over his posts later today.

In all cases except 1-a), at least one of you (Cuzz/Robz) are lying. In all cases, there is also a VT scum too. It might be smarter to chase him and not risk a PR death, but with 2) being so damn obvious and it's 50/50 in catching a scum, I'm willing to go that way.

(I understand that for other people have to consider me being scum too, so it's not "50/50" for them, but I got luxury of not having too)

[theorel]

Don't be silly, you can solve anything with math.

[Cuzz]

No PR liars means there IS a Serial Killer. So it can't be Grujah or Cuzz or me, because under this scenario there are no liars. Which means literally every one else, except one person, is scum. This is possible with a bulletproof SK, but seems so far-fetched with a ninja/strong SK.

I agree that Grujah is unlikely to be sparky's partner based on their interactions. Thus from my perspective he can't be a serial killer unless both he and you are lying, which I highly doubt. Thus I find the above scenario (all PR claims true, 3 scum in theorel, joth, O, insom) to be the most likely. If I were to guess, I'd say theorel is the most likely town in that bunch.

I see you've voted for me, but I wish you'd seriously consider this possibility. I've somewhat been leaning toward the notion that there are lot's of scum among the VT claims for a while. See this post:

This is actually pretty damn good for town, because it means we're unlikely to mislynch (75% scumlynch possibility? I'll take it).

Now, I do see that your reasoning that led to a vote on me is quite solid. But it's wrong and the situation will suck for town tomorrow if we mislynch me today, especially with 3 scum still alive in all likelihood. So even though I only have one vote on me for now, I can see how others could easily choose to jump on the wagon, since a lot of those left are scum.

Hence I'll begin to defend myself a bit. I'd just ask you to go back to my claim, and remember how genuine it looked to you and everyone else at the time. I'd also ask you to reread as much of me in this game as you can in the context of my claim and look for slips. There are none because my claim is true. Honestly, I hope that if I ever have to fakeclaim as scum that I can survive half as long as I have in this game with my real claim. I'm a terrible, terrible liar, and based on BMV I think I kinda suck at playing scum.

I realize this sounds super defensive (only one vote after all), but having a strong townread of mine on my wagon makes me really nervous at this stage in the game. Thankfully the scum remaining aren't all the same faction or they could quicklynch a doctor right now. (again assuming a SK, detailsdetailsdetails, etc)

[Insomniac]

You guys and your SK theories. IT IS HIGHLY INPROBABLE THAT WE HAVE A SK.

Theorel, SK hunting as opposed to mafia hunting is bad because SK hunting is MUCH more likely than mafia hunting to cause a mislynch, additionally if there IS no SK it causes a scenario tomorrow where you lynch town and town gets shot overnight there are 7 people alive currently, so it brings it down to a 3-2 LYLO scenario which is pretty bad considering we hit scum on Day 2.

[jotheonah]

Robz, do you still think Insomniac is obvSK? Wasn't that a thing yesterday?

[Robz888]

Robz, do you still think Insomniac is obvSK? Wasn't that a thing yesterday?

I just don't know. If there is a SK, yeah. But that was before we had another night with no extra kills.

[Robz888]

Of course Insomniac taking the strong "There is no SK" argument doesn't fill me with so much confidence.

But if there IS an SK... you're all scum, except like one person. Which is actually kind of hard for me to picture at this point.

[Cuzz]

You guys and your SK theories. IT IS HIGHLY INPROBABLE THAT WE HAVE A SK.

Theorel, SK hunting as opposed to mafia hunting is bad because SK hunting is MUCH more likely than mafia hunting to cause a mislynch, additionally if there IS no SK it causes a scenario tomorrow where you lynch town and town gets shot overnight there are 7 people alive currently, so it brings it down to a 3-2 LYLO scenario which is pretty bad considering we hit scum on Day 2.

Look, any time we talk about what's "probable" or not, these all have to be considered conditionally.

Probability of SK at the beginning of the game? About 50/50

Probability of SK given missing nightkills? Getting into "rather improbable" territory.

BUT, probability of SK given missing NKs AND the fact that no SK implies Robz or Grujah is sparky's scumpartner?

Now to me this is looking much more likely.

Plus there's the little fact that you, Insomniac, were accused of being an SK yesterday by Robz. Today you are adamantly denying the possibility of an SK even existing. It would be one thing if people were accusing you today (well I guess I kinda am now) and you were denying the existence of an SK in the process of defending yourself, but instead you're just trying to constantly nudge everyone else into the mindset that an SK can't possibly exist.

[Robz888]

Also, why on earth do I have two votes against me? Maybe I'm not as obvtracker as I seem to myself? But if neither Grujah nor Jo are mafia, which I admit looks more possible now, I actually could be in danger of death here. It's a shame that Grujah is the one person I am sure is not scum, as he is by far the most unhelpful and misguided person in this game.

[jotheonah]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

[Robz888]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

[Cuzz]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

You're in that first world, Robz, scary though it may be.

[jotheonah]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Couldn't you be scum instead?

[Insomniac]

Yesterday I was "obvSK" to many in the town, so when you all talk about SK Hunting I'm very aware that that makes me the top which is unfortunate because a)I know I'm a VT. and b)I'm making a logical argument and if anyone else made it you'd be more likely to believe them.

The problem is since everyone thinks I'm a VT if my logical argument denies the existance based on facts you just go lol obvsk.

[Robz888]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Couldn't you be scum instead?

No.

[Insomniac]

Vote: jotheonah

I'm comfortable with my vote here, I think his "deep down you know I'm town" was an attempt to pull a fast one.

[Robz888]

Vote: jotheonah

I'm comfortable with my vote here, I think his "deep down you know I'm town" was an attempt to pull a fast one.

But Insomniac, if there is no Serial Killer--which is what you say--doesn 't Cuzz have to be a liar, as I've said? Unless you distrust me?

[Robz888]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

[Insomniac]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

Lol I disagree with your read so I'm scum?

Here's the thing Robz I know from my PM that I am town. So I look at the setup

3 PR's
3 VT's

Now from a math standpoint I have a 1/3 chance in EITHER group. Well I would rather lynch a VT if I'm wrong then a PR if I'm wrong, therefore I need to lynch in the VT group as if there is no SK there is 1 scum in either group (most likely). So I look at theorel, jo and O. Of the 3 my strongest scum read is Jo, I don't just throw out a read because Jo says you know in your gut I'm town, Jo is a clever guy he could say that as scum.

While I get that you don't suspect Grujah, I'm not ruling out he could be the liar, from my PoV any of the 3 PR's could be. Grujah has played this game long enough he could bus sparky hard on Day 2 I don't think that rules him out, and well hey he thinks your a liar.

[Robz888]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

Lol I disagree with your read so I'm scum?

That comment was directed at Jo, not you.

[Insomniac]

Oh sorry I misread your second statement because the first one was directed at me and I overlooked the Jo part.

FWIW I think that Cuzz is the most likely liar and you are the least likely but I'm not confident enough to risk lynching a PR.

[Robz888]

Well, if I can't get a Cuzz vote, Vote: Jotheonah. I really hope we have a Serial Killer then, I guess.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-6

Robz888 (2): Grujah, jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (3): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Well I hope you guys don't lose. I think Cuzz could easily be the liar. I don't have any helpful reads I haven't already shared.

[Robz888]

Well I hope you guys don't lose. I think Cuzz could easily be the liar. I don't have any helpful reads I haven't already shared.

I agree!

[Cuzz]

I'd like to hear from O a bit more before anyone hammers. He's been a bit quiet D3.

[jotheonah]

Hey Robz, if I vote: Cuzz, will you switch back?

O, if I vote: theorel do you think we can get 2 more?

The only thing I can say definitively right now is that I'm town, and so lynching me would be a bad thing.

[Robz888]

I won't vote for Theorel over you, no. I may vote for Cuzz over you.

[Cuzz]

Hey Robz, if I vote: Cuzz, will you switch back?

O, if I vote: theorel do you think we can get 2 more?

The only thing I can say definitively right now is that I'm town, and so lynching me would be a bad thing.

Do you actually think me or theorel are scum or are you just making a frantic bargain?

[jotheonah]

I literally think anybody could be scum right now. Which is a terrible place to be.  But there is one exception of course, and that's the person who's at L-1.

So it's a frantic bargain, but it's very, very pro-town.

What the hell are you guys going to do tomorrow? Even if I flip scum (which I won't) it seems like you'll be stuck with exactly the same blind guessing game we're playing today.

[Cuzz]

I literally think anybody could be scum right now. Which is a terrible place to be.  But there is one exception of course, and that's the person who's at L-1.

So it's a frantic bargain, but it's very, very pro-town.

What the hell are you guys going to do tomorrow? Even if I flip scum (which I won't) it seems like you'll be stuck with exactly the same blind guessing game we're playing today.

This is reminiscent of your "even if sparky is scum, he's a bad lynch" comment. I swear I will never understand this argument. The point of the game as town is to lynch scum. There is no universe in which you flipping scum is not a wonderful outcome for town. Besides, you're wrong. There will be night events to analyze.

[jotheonah]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

[Robz888]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

[Insomniac]

I don't think your right at all Jo, the problem with tracker is its not a cop, a null result doesn't mean much while a result is damning.

And if we didn't lynch sparky then who knows if we would have lynched scum, and we would be soo much worse off today, not to mention we have sparky's interactions to go on which make you look really bad.

[jotheonah]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

The current game state begs to differ. In a given night, of course it's better to lynch scum. But the town is playing to win the whole game. We're very close to losing the whole game, because we lynched a scummy loner instead of pursuing a scum narrative.

[Cuzz]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

I'm gonna stop addressing my comments to you, jo, because there's no point in arguing directly with someone I think is scum.

But to the undecided townies remaining, please read those above comments and try to tell me why a townie would argue that sparky was a bad lynch after sparky flipped scum.

This is utterly insane. Town does not have perfect information. It is hard enough to lynch scum, period. But we should have backed down from the sparky wagon to go for someone more informational, who may or may not have even been scum?

[jotheonah]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

[Robz888]

It's highly reminiscent of that comment, which turned out to be 100% dead on.

We lynched sparky. That took us into a day wherein we had no idea who to lynch next. Now we're going to mislynch a town-aligned player.

If we had lynched someone more informational yesterday, than we'd have a direction, a lead that stood out against the rest.

Night actions, eh? And how much have those helped us today? They've given us a tracker result we've chosen to completely ignore, and a dead jailkeeper who absolutely anyone would have killed. Thank god for night actions!

Jo, this is an utter nonsense argument. Lynching scum is better than lynching for information.

The current game state begs to differ. In a given night, of course it's better to lynch scum. But the town is playing to win the whole game. We're very close to losing the whole game, because we lynched a scummy loner instead of pursuing a scum narrative.

... who was scum.

[Robz888]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

[jotheonah]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

Well I'm not saying we should have lynched town! I'm saying we should have lynched a scum who interacted more.

If we had lynched town though, you for example, if you're town, which I still don't really believe, I still think we would have known a lot more about O, Grujah, and myself. 

This is sort of a pointless discussion. The point I was originally making was this: do you really want to lynch me today? Do you think that if you lynch me today and I flip town (the outcome that will happen) you can win the game? Do you think that if you lynch me and I flip scum (the outcome that won't happen) you can win the game?

[Robz888]

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we lynched scum.  But if you lynch scum and then lose the game, you still lost the game.

But if we hadn't lynched scum yesterday, we would have been more likely to lose the game today.

Well I'm not saying we should have lynched town! I'm saying we should have lynched a scum who interacted more.

If we had lynched town though, you for example, if you're town, which I still don't really believe, I still think we would have known a lot more about O, Grujah, and myself. 

This is sort of a pointless discussion. The point I was originally making was this: do you really want to lynch me today? Do you think that if you lynch me today and I flip town (the outcome that will happen) you can win the game? Do you think that if you lynch me and I flip scum (the outcome that won't happen) you can win the game?

If you flip town, it will be terrible, but not because I will suddenly feel lost on all my reads, but because you will have flipped town. You're over thinking this. We have tons of info. It doesn't just dry up because we lynch the wrong person. That can happen, but it's not happening in our game in its current state.

[jotheonah]

Well, I'm going to Vote: Cuzz. Robz, I hope you'll vote with me. Maybe we can get O too, I know he doesn't like my lynch.

[jotheonah]

And now I'm going to go get some work done.

[Robz888]

Blaaaaargh.

[Cuzz]

And now I'm going to go get some work done.

I've been telling myself this for hours. This game is just way more fun than the mountain of exams I have to grade...

[Robz888]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

[Robz888]

The only person I can trust is Grujah, who is useless and thinks I'm scum. I like O, Theorle and Insomniac, but as many as all 3 of them could be scum. Yuck.

[Cuzz]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

This is why I feel like there's probably an SK. Do me a favor and reread the end of D2 and see if I look like sparky's scumpartner there.

[Cuzz]

Actually I just checked and I wasn't as active then as I remembered. I was busy. But I was on the wagon at least, when I could have just ducked out for a few hours had I been his partner.

[Insomniac]

Jo is just soooo scummy. He soooo much seems like sparky's partner. But if there is no SK, Cuzz all but has to be scum.

This is why I feel like there's probably an SK. Do me a favor and reread the end of D2 and see if I look like sparky's scumpartner there.

Occum's Razor, there have been no unexplained nightkills, there is no SK.

The SK would have NEVER shot Frisk last night mafia would do it, I don't know whether he would aim for scum or town but I think scum.
Because the SK should never shoot Frisk and Frisk died it is a given that Frisk is the mafia kill.

Now you and Grujah claim to have both doctored Frisk. Therefore the SK kill as bulletproof or ninja would have gone through.

Thus you can conclude that there is no SK because the circumstance fro the previous night makes it impossible QED.

[Robz888]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

[theorel]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Actually, I was taking a long-winded mathematical approach to saying "It's really bad if there's a SK and we don't kill him today".  But it was long-winded and mathematical because I was trying to determine if it really is bad, rather than just declaring it because I felt like it would be.  I think it isn't as bad as I thought it was (unless jo really is town, and even then the SK and mafia might explode on top of each other making town still winnable). 

I'm still concerned about O pairings, I'm concerned about Robz and Cuzz' willingness to lynch jo.

If Cuzz is scum with jo, he's basically just sacrificing the game.  (I mean really, if we get 2 chances to kill the PR-claiming scum, we've basically won.)
If one of them is scum, this is a ZM2-bus, not a MVIII-bus.  (i.e. a bus which ultimately loses the game even if it convinces people you're probably town)

So, the only possibility I can see is for a Grujah-jo scumteam.  Which I agree with Robz on, it seems unlikely.

@Robz: if Cuzz is scum, jo isn't.

So, here are the teams that make sense to me:  (in no particular order)
1. jo, O and Insomniac are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac because they're more likely to be the SK and lynching SK is better than lynching mafia (I think).
2. Robz-O are scum-mates.  NOT because O quick-hammered to save Robz...If I'm dipping into second-rung likelihood well, this is at least plausible.  Early bussing, now full-on town reads without any strong reasons.  I hate the "he just seems town" argument...O has done nothing pro-town this game at all.
3. Cuzz-O are scum-mates.  I don't see any reason this needs to be false.  It gives O double-reason to quick-hammer day1.
4. jo-Grujah are scum-mates.  But this means Grujah hard-bussed Sparky, AND jo hard-defended him.
5. Robz-Cuzz-(Insomniac OR O) are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac as in 1 (I think).

Although, all that said, I agree with Cuzz' latest comment.  The "even if I flip scum" thing is silly.  @jo: if you flip scum, we have (at least) 2 shots at lynching your PR-claiming buddy.  I think we basically win the game in that case.

I still don't like that Grujah is his only reasonable scum-buddy, though.  I'm certainly divided in my mind...but I don't think I'll hammer jo at this time. 

PPE: wow, I had this window up for a while doing other things.  Um...here's to hoping it's relevant.

[Insomniac]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

[Robz888]

It could easily be Jo or Cuzz. There's a right answer, but I don't know what it is, and I don't fault anyone else for not knowing. Jo is a better fit to be sparky's partner, and he has squirmed and offered ridiculous reasons to be counter this (sparky not being informational and such).

So I guess I'm going to stick with Jo. I guess. Vote: Jotheonah

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-7

Robz888 (1): Grujah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (3): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888
Cuzz (1): jotheonah

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[theorel]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

You're ignoring the Jailkeeper

[theorel]

@Robz: do you think Grujah is scum, or do you think Cuzz is sacrificing the game?

[Robz888]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

Frisk could have jailkept the bulletproof Serial Killer.

[Robz888]

@Robz: do you think Grujah is scum, or do you think Cuzz is sacrificing the game?

I do not think Grujah is scum. I am certain Grujah is not scum. So...

Either Cuzz is scum with sparky and someone else and there is no Serial Killer OR Cuzz is town, and 3 of you-O-Jo-Insomniac are remaining scum and SK.

[Insomniac]

@Robz and Theorel: Yes thats true but thats a 1/8 chance of him doing so which means that 12.5% of the time there is a Serial killer and 87.5% of the time there isn't, and thats ignoring the night 1 factor.

[theorel]

So you think that jo is the best lynch out of jo-me-O-Insomniac?  Even though Cuzz might be scum with one of the other 3?

[Cuzz]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

You're ignoring the Jailkeeper

And the JOAT. And the bus driver.

[Robz888]

So you think that jo is the best lynch out of jo-me-O-Insomniac?  Even though Cuzz might be scum with one of the other 3?

Yes, because after re-reading, Jo is absolutely the most likely and sensible partner to our only confirmed scum.

Admittedly, I'm waffling. I go back and forth on whether we have an SK. I do think an SK would very likely be bulletproof, not ninja/strong, and a bulletproof SK could have simply missed a million times. IF there is no SK, Cuzz is scum beyond a reasonable doubt, I just don't know.

[Robz888]

If Jo is scum, my guess is his partner is Theorel or O, with Insomniac the SK.

[Insomniac]

I don't think the SK would have necessarily chosen ninja/strong shot though.

Robz it doesn't matter what the SK chose.

In any scenario the mafia would shoot frisk so it makes zero sense for the SK to do it. because Cuzz and Grujah claim to have doctored frisk it doesn't matter who the SK targeted the kill went through because the doctor wasn't targeting the SK target.

You're ignoring the Jailkeeper

And the JOAT. And the bus driver.

Uhh bus driver sure, but that means that the bus driver moved his kill to Frisk.

The Joat is not being ignored Frisk was strongmanned if one of you/grujah is not lying.

[theorel]

@Insomniac: unless the busdriver busdrove Frisk with some other townie that the Jailkeeper targeted.  Then JOAT didn't need to use the strongman kill.

[Insomniac]

Actually the bus driver isn't being ignored either, the bus driver would never bus Frisk/X where X is the SK target because they were already guaranteeing frisks death and having control over the SK kill is just way better (2 kills) so they would have bussed X/Y and we would have seen 2 deaths last night.

[theorel]

@Robz: which case is town more likely to win:
2 town v. 1 mafia and 1 SK
OR
3 town v. 2 mafia?

[Robz888]

@Robz: which case is town more likely to win:
2 town v. 1 mafia and 1 SK
OR
3 town v. 2 mafia?

I'll take 3 town vs 2 mafia for $1,000, Alex.

[theorel]

then lynching jo is a bad idea.  because it is the most likely to put us in 2 town v. 1 mafia + 1 SK

[Robz888]

I see what you're saying. You're saying we need to kill the SK if there is one.

[Insomniac]

@Robz: which case is town more likely to win:
2 town v. 1 mafia and 1 SK
OR
3 town v. 2 mafia?

Power roles power roles power roles. You argue till your blue in the face that because of PR's SK is super likely, now you argue that PR's don't make it likely that another kill will be blocked.

[Robz888]

then lynching jo is a bad idea.  because it is the most likely to put us in 2 town v. 1 mafia + 1 SK

But I don't think this will happen. In the SK-is-real scenario, we have 2 Doctors. So both scum kills have to successfully resolve on town, which hasn't yet happened, by the way.

[Insomniac]

Even if there is an SK (there isn't), That means all PR's are true, implying 2 doctors among 6 people there is a pretty decent chance another kill will be blocked

[Robz888]

Even if there is an SK (there isn't), That means all PR's are true, implying 2 doctors among 6 people there is a pretty decent chance another kill will be blocked

Exactly. As I've said a bunch of times, I think if there is a SK, evidence suggests he doesn't have super kills.

[theorel]

So, you prefer 3 town v. 1 mafia and 1 SK then?

[theorel]

You would rather chance the 2v1v1 AND FORCE the 3v2(if no SK exists) then take the 3v2 if SK exists and chance 4v1 if SK doesn't exist?

[Robz888]

You would rather chance the 2v1v1 AND FORCE the 3v2(if no SK exists) then take the 3v2 if SK exists and chance 4v1 if SK doesn't exist?

I can't influence which of these scenarios is the one that exists. We are already in one of these situations. I am trying to figure out who is most likely scum, not pick the most favorable situation and then pick scum.

[theorel]

you do have control over which of those scenarios you take.

If we lynch jo:
If SK exists: we probably go to 3v1v1 maybe go to 2v1v1 (depending on if SK is successful).
If SK doesn't exist: we go to 3v2 (because you yourself admit that jo can only be scum if SK exists)

If we lynch Insomniac/O
If SK exists: we probably go to 3v2.
If SK doesn't exist: we either go to 3v2 or 4v1 (depending on if we hit scum)

You can choose whether to lynch jo.  You can't choose whether SK exists.

[theorel]

EDIT:
lynching Insomniac/O if SK exists leads to either:
3v2 or 3v1v1 depending on if we hit the SK.  (Note: I'm taking for granted here that PRs are true, because the argument is directed at Robz...though it applies equally to Cuzz if he's town)

[Insomniac]

EDIT:
lynching Insomniac/O if SK exists leads to either:
3v2 or 3v1v1 depending on if we hit the SK.  (Note: I'm taking for granted here that PRs are true, because the argument is directed at Robz...though it applies equally to Cuzz if he's town)

How can you assume PRs are true, Robz doesn't know if Grujah/Cuzz are lying.

[Insomniac]

nvm your saying in the SK exists scenario.

[Insomniac]

However you are assuming that the PR's do NO work in ALL scenarios.

[theorel]

Um I gave a 3v1v1 scenario?  That implies a PR is successful.

4v1v1 is possible, but 4v2 is more likely than that.  The issue is that PRs are more likely to block 1 kill than 2.  But they're more likely to block 1 of 2 than 1 of 1.  SO, yes a PR could succeed, but they could also fail.  I would rather TRY to eliminate a kill, and hope the PRs block the remaining kill then kill a mafia and count on the PR blocking 1 of the kills.

[Robz888]

you do have control over which of those scenarios you take.

If we lynch jo:
If SK exists: we probably go to 3v1v1 maybe go to 2v1v1 (depending on if SK is successful).
If SK doesn't exist: we go to 3v2 (because you yourself admit that jo can only be scum if SK exists)

If we lynch Insomniac/O
If SK exists: we probably go to 3v2.
If SK doesn't exist: we either go to 3v2 or 4v1 (depending on if we hit scum)

You can choose whether to lynch jo.  You can't choose whether SK exists.

If we lynch Insomniac/O, we are more likely to be wrong than if we lynch Jo. That's my position. Given that sparky is mafia, who is also mafia? Jo. I have arrived at Jo. If this means we have to have an SK (or I am wrong about Grujah), so be it. We very well may have an SK.

[O]

Why do all these scenarios not involve lynching the VT-claim Theorel?

[Insomniac]

Why do all these scenarios not involve lynching the VT-claim Theorel?

Because VT-claim theorel likes town guiding in his theories. I'm warming up to him since he claims to love math but apparently will ignore Math that makes his SK theory bad.

[Robz888]

Why do all these scenarios not involve lynching the VT-claim Theorel?

Becuase I don't think theorel is a more plausible sparky partner than Jo.

[jotheonah]

Why do all these scenarios not involve lynching the VT-claim Theorel?

Or for that matter, what about VT-claim O?

[O]

Why do all these scenarios not involve lynching the VT-claim Theorel?

Or for that matter, what about VT-claim O?

...they have involved lynching me? Derp derp derp.

[jotheonah]

So, here are the teams that make sense to me:  (in no particular order)
1. jo, O and Insomniac are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac because they're more likely to be the SK and lynching SK is better than lynching mafia (I think).
2. Robz-O are scum-mates.  NOT because O quick-hammered to save Robz...If I'm dipping into second-rung likelihood well, this is at least plausible.  Early bussing, now full-on town reads without any strong reasons.  I hate the "he just seems town" argument...O has done nothing pro-town this game at all.
3. Cuzz-O are scum-mates.  I don't see any reason this needs to be false.  It gives O double-reason to quick-hammer day1.
4. jo-Grujah are scum-mates.  But this means Grujah hard-bussed Sparky, AND jo hard-defended him.
5. Robz-Cuzz-(Insomniac OR O) are all scum.  We should lynch O or Insomniac as in 1 (I think).

Although, all that said, I agree with Cuzz' latest comment.  The "even if I flip scum" thing is silly.  @jo: if you flip scum, we have (at least) 2 shots at lynching your PR-claiming buddy.  I think we basically win the game in that case.

I still don't like that Grujah is his only reasonable scum-buddy, though.  I'm certainly divided in my mind...but I don't think I'll hammer jo at this time. 

PPE: wow, I had this window up for a while doing other things.  Um...here's to hoping it's relevant.

Theorel gives 5 possible scum teams (granted he's ignoring himself). O is involved in 4 of them. Theorel, shouldn't you be voting O?

[O]

Because he doesn't want to get lynched and he knows I would win if it came to a lynch-O or lynch-Theorel vote. And as scum, tunneling a townie is not worth risking death.

[Cuzz]

Grujah, where you at? Do you support lynching jo or not?

[Grujah]

Dunno, I'm off to sleep.

I hate jo's deathsquirming. After that guilt-low-blow, now he's trying to give this appearance of obvious, confirmed, confident townie, than he bargains with Robz.. argh..

I'd rather have Robz or you, Cuzz, as I said repediately. I actually don't have that big of a case on you and I didn't read you today as I planned (only thing I have was your kinda noob-scum early behaviour), and the fact that you are a fallout lynch cuz Robz lynch doesn't seem to be happening and you are the only other person that fits the PR bill and I do not want to lynch a as a fallout-sloppy-second, I am giving you a pass.  And if no progress is made in towards Robz in near future, or you do not get scummier in some instance, I can settle with jo, blaaaaaaaaah.

[Cuzz]

Dunno, I'm off to sleep.

I hate jo's deathsquirming. After that guilt-low-blow, now he's trying to give this appearance of obvious, confirmed, confident townie, than he bargains with Robz.. argh..

I'd rather have Robz or you, Cuzz, as I said repediately. I actually don't have that big of a case on you and I didn't read you today as I planned (only thing I have was your kinda noob-scum early behaviour), and the fact that you are a fallout lynch cuz Robz lynch doesn't seem to be happening and you are the only other person that fits the PR bill and I do not want to lynch a as a fallout-sloppy-second, I am giving you a pass.  And if no progress is made in towards Robz in near future, or you do not get scummier in some instance, I can settle with jo, blaaaaaaaaah.

I think most people have supported lynching a VT claim today, with the exception of jo who currently supports lynching anyone in the set {not jo}. So I don't think there's gonna be much support for a Robz lynch.

[Grujah]

Meh, as for VTs, I said what I had about jo, about theo all I got from him is a loads of theory talk and O tunnels and no other things of value. Correct me if wrong. O is lurky and tunneling theo, Ins I was mostly fine with except that L-1 thing D2, and no beef or basically anything against him since.

[Cuzz]

Meh, as for VTs, I said what I had about jo, about theo all I got from him is a loads of theory talk and O tunnels and no other things of value. Correct me if wrong. O is lurky and tunneling theo, Ins I was mostly fine with except that L-1 thing D2, and no beef or basically anything against him since.

So are you potentially willing to hammer? There's a decent chance that me, you and Robz constitute the majority of living town so I want to have a good sense of where you stand on everything.

[Robz888]

Meh, as for VTs, I said what I had about jo, about theo all I got from him is a loads of theory talk and O tunnels and no other things of value. Correct me if wrong. O is lurky and tunneling theo, Ins I was mostly fine with except that L-1 thing D2, and no beef or basically anything against him since.

So are you potentially willing to hammer? There's a decent chance that me, you and Robz constitute the majority of living town so I want to have a good sense of where you stand on everything.

Yeah, and it's been like pulling teeth getting you to contribute, and so much rests on you, and your opinion is completely off. Now will you please do as I say?

[jotheonah]

Look at these scummy characters begging for a vote! Don't do it, Grujah! I'll vote Cuzz OR Robz with you.

[Robz888]

Look at these scummy characters begging for a vote! Don't do it, Grujah! I'll vote Cuzz OR Robz with you.

Do it Grujah. You know it feels so right.

[O]

Vote: Jotheonah

I see town reads on the wagon and scum reads off, so..

Might aswell hammer again.

[Robz888]

Come on Voltgloss, let's see it...

[Galzria]

Thread Locked.

Voltgloss will provide final vote count and flip as soon as possible.

[Voltgloss]

Thanks Galz.  Preparing hammer results post now.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-8

Robz888 (1): Grujah
jotheonah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888, O
Cuzz (1): jotheonah

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

jotheonah slammed back his final shot of whiskey and grinned as the lynch mob approached.  Their leader, O "the Quickhammer", raised the gun that was about to take jo's life.  "Any last words, scum?" he said.

jotheonah thought for a moment, then nodded and said:

"There are two kinds of people in this world, my friend.
Those who lynch scum; and those who derp.
...You derp."

O fired.

And that is how O "the Quickhammer" became O "the Derphammer."

jotheonah, Town Border Villager {Vanilla}, has been lynched.

Night 3 has begun.  Night actions are due within 48 hours, i.e., by 3:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday, October 13.  If all actions are received prior to the deadline, Day 4 may start early.

This thread is now LOCKED.

[Voltgloss]

Mood music: 

Three a.m.  "Derphammer" O grinned as he snuck into the bar.  There; there was the real scum, sitting at the bar, smoking, with his back turned.

O cocked his gun.  The scum didn't even budge.  O licked his lips and spoke.

"I've been looking for you for 8 hours. 
Whenever I should have had a quickhammer that hit scum, I thought of you.
Now I find you in exactly the position that suits me.

I had lots of time to learn to shoot at night."

O began to squeeze the trigger...

BANG

O's eyes closed as he slumped to the ground.  The last words he heard were...

"When you have to shoot, shoot.  Don't talk."

Five hours later, the town found O's corpse.

O, the Town Border Villager {Vanilla}, has been killed.

Day 4 Start!!

Not voting {5}: Robz888, Insomniac, Grujah, Cuzz, theorel

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Tuesday, October 23, 12:00 noon EDT

[Cuzz]

I may finally be ready to accept that there is no serial killer...

Which means it's 3 on 2 and Robz or Grujah is scum. Let's do this.

[Cuzz]

Weird that scum killed O. They might've had an easy mislynch today with O's two quickhammers on town. I know I was leaning toward thinking he was scum last night.

[Robz888]

Cuzz is scum.

I tracked Cuzz last night. He targeted no one. Funny thing for a doctor to target no one.

Not really available to talk right now, but there it is.

[Cuzz]

Lieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslieslies.

Or busdriving/roleblocking. Scum probably would have roleblocked me last night actually.

Both remaining mafia are power roles. Why would mafia PR's not have targeted anyone?

[Cuzz]

Mafia JOAT cannot roleblock and kill on same night. With at least one doctor at this stage of the game, don't you think they would have roleblocked a doctor last night? Hence both scum would have acted last night, and getting a no-track on mafia makes no sense.

[Cuzz]

Ugh, forgot about ninja kill, so I guess you could suppose I'm the JOAT and used that last night.

So maybe I can't prove I'm not scum, not yet at least. But I did try to protect someone so either mafia PRs interfered or Robz is scum.

[Cuzz]

And if you like wine, I think mafia might have anticipated you would track me, Robz, since you thought I was scummy yesterday (this of course assuming you're not scum yourself).

So roleblocking me would have been a great way to frame me once you showed up today with your null tracking result on me.

[Grujah]

Ok, another no-SK night, one of Cuz or Robz is scum.

@Cuzz
Might also be you are the busdriver who out of ammo or JoaT who ninja-kill or just saved your ability as anyone.

Weird that you still didn't claim target.

I targeted you, Cuzz, FWIW.

Can't think now, It's 6 in the morning, need some sleep.

PPE: 3 new posts.

[Cuzz]

I targeted theorel, not that it really matters. I thought scum would expect me to protect Robz since I'd been expressing a townread on him so I figured (correctly) that they'd leave him alone (unless he's scum of course himself). So I went with my second towniest read.

But all my reads are out the window for today. I really thought jo was scum.

[Insomniac]

I think if u were roleblocked robz would have seen who you targeted still. Anyhow phone posting no one vote we are at lylo here

[Cuzz]

I think if u were roleblocked robz would have seen who you targeted still. Anyhow phone posting no one vote we are at lylo here

I was wondering about this myself. Volt what's the ruling here?

[Voltgloss]

I think if u were roleblocked robz would have seen who you targeted still. Anyhow phone posting no one vote we are at lylo here

I was wondering about this myself. Volt what's the ruling here?

Per the role PMs for the roles that can track, as laid out in the second post:

Each night, you may track one player in the game.  You will learn who, if anyone, they targeted that night. 
If the person you track is roleblocked, you WILL still learn who they attempted to target.
If the person you track does not target anyone, you will get the result "No One."
If your tracking attempt fails for some reason (e.g., you are roleblocked), you will get "No Result."

   

[Cuzz]

Well this narrows down the possibilities here. Bus driving, or Robz is scum. Thinking it's the latter probably.

[Robz888]

Well this narrows down the possibilities here. Bus driving, or Robz is scum. Thinking it's the latter probably.

FYI, I'm mostly V/LA this weekend, so from my end we have to hold this conversation until Monday. But...

One of Grujah/Cuzz is scum, and one of Theorel/Insomniac are scum. There is obviously no Serial Killer at this point, and if there is, we probably lose anyway.

I suspect Cuzz is the scum, both based on my result, and based on other suspicions. It's true that roleblocking or bus driving could explain what happened, assuming those powers weren't used up yet. I still think it's Cuzz over Grujah.

I have no idea which of Theorel/Insomniac is scum. I'm surprised not to see them weigh in yet, because both of them actually do KNOW, for sure, which is scum (unlike Grujah/Cuzz/me since there's three of us).

[Insomniac]

It's true that roleblocking or bus driving could explain what happened, assuming those powers weren't used up yet. I still think it's Cuzz over Grujah.

I have no idea which of Theorel/Insomniac is scum. I'm surprised not to see them weigh in yet, because both of them actually do KNOW, for sure, which is scum (unlike Grujah/Cuzz/me since there's three of us).

I was asleep last night but roleblocking CANNOT explain what happened. And I think it's obvious that I know theorel is scum, but I think we have to worry about finding the PR a bit more today then just ignoring the issue like we have for the last few days.

[Robz888]

It's true that roleblocking or bus driving could explain what happened, assuming those powers weren't used up yet. I still think it's Cuzz over Grujah.

I have no idea which of Theorel/Insomniac is scum. I'm surprised not to see them weigh in yet, because both of them actually do KNOW, for sure, which is scum (unlike Grujah/Cuzz/me since there's three of us).

I was asleep last night but roleblocking CANNOT explain what happened. And I think it's obvious that I know theorel is scum, but I think we have to worry about finding the PR a bit more today then just ignoring the issue like we have for the last few days.

The problem is that you'll say that, and theorel will say that, and I just don't know who to believe.

But yesterday, I presented evidence for why I did not think Grujah could be a scum partner to sparky. So there's that, still.

[Cuzz]

It's true that roleblocking or bus driving could explain what happened, assuming those powers weren't used up yet. I still think it's Cuzz over Grujah.

I have no idea which of Theorel/Insomniac is scum. I'm surprised not to see them weigh in yet, because both of them actually do KNOW, for sure, which is scum (unlike Grujah/Cuzz/me since there's three of us).

I was asleep last night but roleblocking CANNOT explain what happened. And I think it's obvious that I know theorel is scum, but I think we have to worry about finding the PR a bit more today then just ignoring the issue like we have for the last few days.

The problem is that you'll say that, and theorel will say that, and I just don't know who to believe.

But yesterday, I presented evidence for why I did not think Grujah could be a scum partner to sparky. So there's that, still.

Can we rehash that evidence a bit? I really don't think anyone should be cleared by anyone else at this point of the game. Between you and Grujah I still think Grujah is scummier, but your inability to target me accurately is really, really suspicious.

I would actually love to sit back and see theorel and Insomniac argue it out for a while. One of them is scum, and they must both claim that they know for a fact that the other is scum. But I think if we get them talking enough we might be able to deduce who's lying.

[Robz888]

I would actually love to sit back and see theorel and Insomniac argue it out for a while. One of them is scum, and they must both claim that they know for a fact that the other is scum. But I think if we get them talking enough we might be able to deduce who's lying.

This is true. You are scum, but this is also true.

[Grujah]

It's true that roleblocking or bus driving could explain what happened, assuming those powers weren't used up yet. I still think it's Cuzz over Grujah.

I have no idea which of Theorel/Insomniac is scum. I'm surprised not to see them weigh in yet, because both of them actually do KNOW, for sure, which is scum (unlike Grujah/Cuzz/me since there's three of us).

I was asleep last night but roleblocking CANNOT explain what happened. And I think it's obvious that I know theorel is scum, but I think we have to worry about finding the PR a bit more today then just ignoring the issue like we have for the last few days.

First I though this "we need to worry more about finding PR today" was a bad idea, but then, I realized in might not be so. If we misslynch, we lose anyway.
If we kill a fakePR we have 2 confirmed PRs. If Robz is scum, Cuzz and I can just protect each other at at least get Happily Ever After or we get a shot at a win if we decide on Theo vs Ins, we have 2 towns rather than 1.
If Cuzz is scum, I can just protect Robz and he can investigate one of two. If a kill happens, he will know has done it and we win.  If kill doesn't happen, we can force HEA.
(you guys who aren't me can add same scenario with me being scum)

Now, these can be screwed by their living PR, if he still has the right powers (roleblock means nothing in this case, only other powers). But in that case, still, one PR will be left to decide on Ins vs theo

If we kill fakeVT we get in situation where mafia still knows more about our PRs than we do and can screw any plan we make, and I think we can only get into worse situation (my mind kinda bogs trying to go through all scenarios). But it boils down to 1 realVT trying to decide between 2 or 3 PRs (and with 3, doesn't know whom to trust, even).
 

For me, it's 50/50 in both cases (Ins vs theo and Robz vs Cuzz) except that there is more substantial stuff on Robz vs Cuzz thing. On both theo and Ins I have issues (more on theo, though), but I feel a more informed decision can be made on PRs. I might be wrong.

Another thing, it seem that me, Cuzz and C_F, all together, couldn't stop a single kill. That.. quite odd. Buts more heat on Cuzz, imo.

It is not above Robz (I think) to come with a slightly less accusing evidence (no action) instead of daming one (targeted O). Though, it is a bit safer too.. blargh. Gotta go eat and study a bit, will try to come back later tonight. Though, blaming a VT would have most effect, as his scum partner would than have no problem supporing that lynch.


Robz generally seems scummier. I've been having issue with him from Day 2. But he seem to be the sincere one here, though it might be a huge ploy.
To me Robz is like Galz in MVI. I was on Galz the whole game, he made bad claim and I pushed him hard every freaking day and at the end decided to listed to mind rather than gut and we lynched Glooble, and Gloob was last scum.

PPE: 2 posts. Also, how much time do we have? Also, should grab something to eat and study than, will try to follow thread, through.

[Robz888]

So, my result was No one, not No result. My result means I was NOT roleblocked. So the only explanation, other than Cuzz being scum, would be Bus Driver interference. Remember that the Bus Driver only has one shot, so this power would have had to be unused until now.

Cuzz, why would you protect theorel? I think the answer is that you didn't, but why?

[Cuzz]

From my perspective, the only explanation other than you being scum is that I was busdriven with someone, so that you didn't actually target me. I don't think this is an unreasonable move on their part, but it's a slightly less simple explanation than you being scum.

As I explained before, I targeted theorel because I had a townread on him. I had a townread on you too, but I had been broadcasting that, so I thought mafia would expect me to protect you, and thus leave you alone. WIFOM and all that, you know. I thought theorel was the least likely scum out of the remaining pool (O, Insom, theorel, and Grujah).

Needless to say, I no longer trust any of my previous reads.

[Robz888]

From my perspective, the only explanation other than you being scum is that I was busdriven with someone, so that you didn't actually target me. I don't think this is an unreasonable move on their part, but it's a slightly less simple explanation than you being scum.

As I explained before, I targeted theorel because I had a townread on him. I had a townread on you too, but I had been broadcasting that, so I thought mafia would expect me to protect you, and thus leave you alone. WIFOM and all that, you know. I thought theorel was the least likely scum out of the remaining pool (O, Insom, theorel, and Grujah).

Needless to say, I no longer trust any of my previous reads.

I really don't believe this. Certainly you should have protected Grujah or me? If you were town you should know you have a 50-50 chance of targeting town/scum in both pools of Grujah/me and Theorel/Insomniac... except protecting the town-aligned player in the me/Grujah pool is way more important.

[Cuzz]

From my perspective, the only explanation other than you being scum is that I was busdriven with someone, so that you didn't actually target me. I don't think this is an unreasonable move on their part, but it's a slightly less simple explanation than you being scum.

As I explained before, I targeted theorel because I had a townread on him. I had a townread on you too, but I had been broadcasting that, so I thought mafia would expect me to protect you, and thus leave you alone. WIFOM and all that, you know. I thought theorel was the least likely scum out of the remaining pool (O, Insom, theorel, and Grujah).

Needless to say, I no longer trust any of my previous reads.

I really don't believe this. Certainly you should have protected Grujah or me? If you were town you should know you have a 50-50 chance of targeting town/scum in both pools of Grujah/me and Theorel/Insomniac... except protecting the town-aligned player in the me/Grujah pool is way more important.

WIFOM, dude. I anticipated that scum would expect me to protect a PR claim. I expected that they would therefore kill one of the VT claims. Which, oh by they way, they did. I protected the wrong one obviously (since I thought O was probably scum actually) but my reasoning was sound.

[Cuzz]

Scum is very quiet this weekend.

[theorel]

Okay, so Insomniac is scum.
I'll have to reread with that in mind, although that won't help the rest of you.

If we lynch Insomniac, then the two town PRs have to come to a consensus and lynch the mafia PR. and today they have to come to a consensus about which of us to lynch.

If we go lynch the PR-claim, then the remaining PR will need to choose right between Insomniac and myself, and today, the two town PRs and myself need to come to a consensus on which PR is lying.

Robz' investigation result has set up a 1v1 situation, but we have to question if a bus-driver participated.  So, do we have a town-vs-town situation there, or is it legitimately town-v-scum.

My presonal feeling is that Grujah is town.  He persecuted Sparky (though didn't vote for him), and he didn't vote joth.  With Cuzz, Robz, and Insomniac all voting for joth, I think there's a good chance 2 of them are scum.

I'm leaning Robz-Insomniac at this juncture, but I'll reread before I do anything.

(although realistically I can vote Insomniac all day long, since he's scum...But I think lynching the PR-claim is right (as Grujah stated above))

[Robz888]

Okay, I am back in the game. I am highly convinced that Cuzz is scum. I don't know whether his partner is Theorel or Insomniac, but I have to hope it's Theorel, because it looks like Theorel has unfortunately (likely deliberately) come out against me.

[Insomniac]

Theorel is obviously the scum he has played this entire game offering mostly information and when he did make the big posts they were often quite hedgy. Looking back at how he rated sparky sparky was always super low on his suspicion list.

[Insomniac]

Additionally having thought about it I'm inclined to believe Cuzz is scum. I can't see Robz faking tracker early on just to risk his position this late by claiming Cuzz did nothing last night. I am also more inclined to believe that the fight is town v scum but I'm not as convinced as everyone else that Grujah is town. So thusly I'm leaning Cuzz, but haven't ruled anyone out yet.

[Robz888]

Theorel is obviously the scum he has played this entire game offering mostly information and when he did make the big posts they were often quite hedgy. Looking back at how he rated sparky sparky was always super low on his suspicion list.

Yeah. He was also the third vote to kill sparky, which always struck me as a possible bus vote.

[Robz888]

Additionally having thought about it I'm inclined to believe Cuzz is scum. I can't see Robz faking tracker early on just to risk his position this late by claiming Cuzz did nothing last night. I am also more inclined to believe that the fight is town v scum but I'm not as convinced as everyone else that Grujah is town. So thusly I'm leaning Cuzz, but haven't ruled anyone out yet.

Thanks. But I think to win, you and I have to convince Grujah that Cuzz is scum. Alternatively, you have to convince Grujah and I that Theorel is scum, which I am fairly willing to believe... but I'm not quite as sure as I am about Cuzz.

[Cuzz]

Theorel is obviously the scum he has played this entire game offering mostly information and when he did make the big posts they were often quite hedgy. Looking back at how he rated sparky sparky was always super low on his suspicion list.

Yeah. He was also the third vote to kill sparky, which always struck me as a possible bus vote.

So both of sparky's partners bussed him, and three of the four people on Jo's wagon were town, is that right Robz?

[Robz888]

Theorel is obviously the scum he has played this entire game offering mostly information and when he did make the big posts they were often quite hedgy. Looking back at how he rated sparky sparky was always super low on his suspicion list.

Yeah. He was also the third vote to kill sparky, which always struck me as a possible bus vote.

So both of sparky's partners bussed him, and three of the four people on Jo's wagon were town, is that right Robz?

Yes. Why is that even hard to believe? That's exactly what scum should do.

[Cuzz]

Theorel is obviously the scum he has played this entire game offering mostly information and when he did make the big posts they were often quite hedgy. Looking back at how he rated sparky sparky was always super low on his suspicion list.

Yeah. He was also the third vote to kill sparky, which always struck me as a possible bus vote.

So both of sparky's partners bussed him, and three of the four people on Jo's wagon were town, is that right Robz?

Yes. Why is that even hard to believe? That's exactly what scum should do.

Actually, realizing now that unless Grujah is scum, both of sparky's partners bussed him no matter what. Speaking of which, where is this Grujah can't be sparky's partner business coming from?

I'm having a lot of trouble reading you, Robz. I have to figure out whether it makes sense for scum to have busdriven me last night. I'm not really sure why they would have done that.

What's the best use of busdriving anyway? I would think it's to prevent a successful protection, but then it would make no sense to target the doctor himself with it (this is in the scenario in which Robz is town and Grujah is scum of course). This is really the only way that Robz is not scum.

Either way, this is all working out brilliantly for scum. I admit my situation looks terrible. Whether or not Robz is scum, setting up a situation where a claimed tracker gets a no target result on a doctor has been a pretty nice move on their part.

[Cuzz]

Also would you guys look at my wall of posts at the beginning of today? I swear I would not be able to talk this much if I were scum.

[Robz888]

Also would you guys look at my wall of posts at the beginning of today? I swear I would not be able to talk this much if I were scum.

Emphasis mine. A ridiculous and unverifiable line of defense. And actually, you are far more conversational in this game than your previous games when you were town.

[Cuzz]

Also would you guys look at my wall of posts at the beginning of today? I swear I would not be able to talk this much if I were scum.

Emphasis mine. A ridiculous and unverifiable line of defense. And actually, you are far more conversational in this game than your previous games when you were town.

Meh, I wasn't trying to make a verifiable defense. I just think it's amusing.

[Cuzz]

Besides, I don't think I have any verifiable defense. I know I look bad here, which sucks for town if you manage to convince anyone that I'm scum.

Actually, now that I think of it, if you were town, the two scum would be absolutely pouncing on me right now. Voting for me would not look scummy at all at this point.

I really think Robz has to be scum, guys. Grujah, what do you think?

[Robz888]

Besides, I don't think I have any verifiable defense. I know I look bad here, which sucks for town if you manage to convince anyone that I'm scum.

Actually, now that I think of it, if you were town, the two scum would be absolutely pouncing on me right now. Voting for me would not look scummy at all at this point.

I really think Robz has to be scum, guys. Grujah, what do you think?

The only person pouncing on you is me, which is because you are one of the scum, and theorel is patiently trying to move for a vote against me, which I believe may very well succeed, because of Grujah.

[Cuzz]

Besides, I don't think I have any verifiable defense. I know I look bad here, which sucks for town if you manage to convince anyone that I'm scum.

Actually, now that I think of it, if you were town, the two scum would be absolutely pouncing on me right now. Voting for me would not look scummy at all at this point.

I really think Robz has to be scum, guys. Grujah, what do you think?

The only person pouncing on you is me, which is because you are one of the scum, and theorel is patiently trying to move for a vote against me, which I believe may very well succeed, because of Grujah.

Except that I'm not scum (doctor, remember?) so I have to analyze the information I have in the context of that little factoid. And the information that I have is that there is a good case on me, and there is only one person pushing for my lynch. I now must determine if that one person is scum or not.

And I just don't think it makes sense for that one person to be town, since if he was town, the two scum would be all too eager to join in and end the game right quick.

(Again, this amuses me. I can't even imagine trying to fake an argument like this as scum. Much easier to just fake a tracking result, right Robz?)

[Insomniac]

While you're here Cuzz want to weigh in on Theorel v Me?  I don't think Robz v You is very productive right now as essentially your both waiting on Grujah. So while we are waiting maybe we can get other productive discussion going.

[Cuzz]

Theorel's posts yesterday make me think he really thought there might be a SK. Scum of course knew there wasn't.

I'd actually like to see you and theorel talk about me and Robz.

[Robz888]

I'm a little surprised that Insomniac and Theorel aren't voting for each other. The other is confirmed scum to each of them. If I was 100% sure I knew who scum was, I would be voting for that person.

[Insomniac]

I'm a little surprised that Insomniac and Theorel aren't voting for each other. The other is confirmed scum to each of them. If I was 100% sure I knew who scum was, I would be voting for that person.

Voting at this stage is bad it is LYLO. I know that theorel is scum but if I just voted for him and signed off for the day thats super scummy. Not to mention we have the Robz/Cuzz to think about.

Yes I know for sure that Theorel is scum, but the other 3 people are a PR and have to decide between the two of us at a 50/50 chance, or between the other two PRs at a 50/50 chance, additionally if we lynch theorel today then we go into day 5 with 1 VT deciding between 2 PRs. Not that thats a bad scenario but I think talking about the PRs is going to be fruitfull.

@Cuzz I already weighed in, at this point I dont think Robz is lying. He had a Null result on Jo a VT, and he had the proper result on ashersky remembering to put ashersky in because of Eevee when I think a lot of scum fake claiming that role would have forgotten that part. So I lean towards you being scum but in the event that you aren't Grujah is my runner up.

[Robz888]

I just really highly question the "I know X is scum with absolute certainty, but..." line of thinking, because it doesn't read sincere to me. If I were in a situation where it was impossible for anything but X being scum, I would vote for X. It doesn't matter whether it's LYLO or what, if X is mafia with 100% probability.

I'm not ranting at you, specifically, Insomniac. Theorel has also declined to vote for you, even though he said he would. And obviously, one of you is not mafia.

Still, it's strange.

[Insomniac]

Well here's the thing Robz, I can vote for theorel but if I can't convince the town that he is mafia then we lose. Voting early in LYLO hurts credibility. Additionally I think that having more discussion on PRs is beneficial to me as if we lynch theorel today then I have to decide between the 2 living PR's so carrying on the debate longer today is beneficial for me to say the least.

Actually now that I think about it.

If we lynch theorel today There are 2 scenarios

Scenario 1)There are 4 of us and Robz is lying. Robz is in a terrible position as he has to choose whom to kill among Grujah/Cuzz/Myself and Grujah Cuzz get to stop him in TWO of those scenarios.

Scenario 2)There's 4 of us if a doctor is lying, then scum has wifom with whether to kill Robz, the real doctor or Myself. Killing Robz or Myself is not guaranteed to be a kill while killing the real doctor IS a guaranteed kill and guarantees LYLO, however killing the real doctor puts a lot of pressure on the fake doctor because there's no more which of us is the doc wine.

Scenario 1 is better for town but I think we are more likely in Scenario 2.

However if we lynch the fake PR with the information we have THEN.
1) If the Fake PR is a doctor, then the real doctor gets to protect one of Robz/Theorel/Myself from the mafia kill and Robz might be able to track the mafia or confirm my VTness.

2) If the fake PR is Robz, then the 2 doctors protect each other I die in the night and theorel gets lynched.

Obviously again Scenario 2 (where Robz is lying) is far better for town but I also think it far less likely.

So given the option I would rather hit the Fake-PR today then the Fake-VT (Theorel).

[Insomniac]

Here is an exhaustive list of possible pairings

Robz-Insomniac
Robz-Grujah
Robz-Cuzz
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Insomniac-Theorel
Grujah-Cuzz
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel

Now
Robz-Grujah implies SK in VTs
Robz-Cuzz implies SK in VTs
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Insomniac-Theorel -- implies no PR lying, implies SK in PR's therefore implies 2 PRs are lying, not possible
Grujah-Cuzz implies SK in VTs
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel


So that means that possible teams WITH a SK in game are
Robz-Grujah
Robz-Cuzz
Grujah-Cuzz

Possible teams with NO SK
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel



Now since I know I'm not scum I will rank the teams that do not have me in them
1) Theorel-Cuzz - Theorel has been one of the lurkier players but tends to have walls of text when he is around, but those walls of text are mostly information, couple this with his low ranking of sparky when he did have analysis, his third vote without reason on sparky, and his minimal to low interaction with all players and the fact that I know he is scum. I'm more inclined to believe Robz in the Robz v Cuzz because of reasons I've outlined before therefore This is my number ONE team.

2) Theorel-Grujah - For theorel see above. Grujah was lurky and has been scummy, this implies he bussed sparky really hard but I wouldn't put it past a scum Grujah to do that for town cred. Theorel has generally given Grujah a 'town' rating just like he did with sparky.

3) Theorel-Robz - I find this to be pretty unlikely given they came out against each other today, it is third only because I know that Theorel is scum.

4) Grujah-Cuzz - I don't think theres an SK so this is where my SK teams start Cuzz is one of the few people that hasn't given Grujah town credit (the other myself), if this is the team then Cuzz is protecting himself if Grujah flips scum before Cuzz does and also makes Cuzz's reads a bit more useless if he dies first.

5) Robz-Grujah - This would mean that Robz drove the second wagon of D2 on his buddy and they both fake claimed that day and that they eventually wagond their third partner, I don't see it.

6) Robz-Cuzz - Cuzz has given Robz a lot of strong town reads, Robz has not returned the sentiments. If this is the scum team well I'll take the loss happily.


Teams 1-3 are the only teams I'm really willing to accept at this point. If there is an SK it has to be theorel and makes 4-6 the only possible teams but I do not believe Theorel to be a SK.


Based on my teams I find myself willing to vote Theorel, and out of the PR's most willing to lynch Cuzz.

I encourage everyone to do an analysis like the above. substituting the teams that include me in for the teams that include yourself.

[Insomniac]

Anybody out there? Pretty dead in here for a Monday.

[Robz888]

I'm here. Pretty torn. Need to re-read some stuff. Agree that Theorel-Cuzz is most likely scum team, but of course you would say that. So I need to check it against reality. I'll try to do that tonight.

[Cuzz]

I like this. I'll put together a list like this soon. A little busy at the moment.

One thing I will say quickly is that I think we need to get people to talk as much as possible. I want people to be on record with everything they think is possible or likely, who they think is lying and why. I will treat anyone unwilling to give detailed analysis of the game state very suspiciously. Town is in a bind here and we will really need to work to have a chance.

[Grujah]

My presonal feeling is that Grujah is town.  He persecuted Sparky (though didn't vote for him), and he didn't vote joth.  With Cuzz, Robz, and Insomniac all voting for joth, I think there's a good chance 2 of them are scum.

FWIW, I was leaning towards voting jo, but O was quicker and hammered.
Sparky was stolen by Ins.

Theorel's posts yesterday make me think he really thought there might be a SK. Scum of course knew there wasn't.

I'd actually like to see you and theorel talk about me and Robz.

Or, as mafia, it suited him to pretend that there is SK. He gets town in chaos, confused and chasing the wrong stuff. Standard Scum Strategy (SSS).

Now, important stuff.

Cuzz vs Robz

I wont re-bring my day-2 things about them now, I don't think.
I have such a hard time with Robz, whenever I try to invision him as town, something comes up.
His "ashersky shot cayvie" track D1 proved to be true; was about to give town points - but as last claimant, mafia would already know there is no SK. (though, Robz is prone to making setup-errors).
His "jo did nothing" track was true; and mafia Tracker could frame him. But than Robz would be in hot chair today, probably lynched; and he got jo lynched anyway.
Today he doesn't make superstrong case - but a less strong one. It goes with his low-key thing he is during whole game if he is mafia, but I think mafia would want as slamdunkish case here as possible.
He pushed both doctors; but I forgive that.
O had pretty strong townread on Robz. He was confirmed town with most info.. hmm.

Cuzz, I don't like how he acts today. At all. Robz seems to be pushing for lynches he is sure/confident on. Cuzz, he is on defensive for some reason too much. Only other thing he seems to do is call out others to talk. It's not what a townie does on Lylo, methinks.
I'm starting to lean over towards Cuzz camp. Hardest part is trying not to get too influenced by Robz.


Theo vs Ins
Huh. I hate theo D3. He didn't vote. He didn't do anything except useless math-babble. Cuzz gives him towncredit for this, somehow (another bad one for Cuzz). I didn't feel he was of much use during the whole game, FWIW. He voted sparky and jo and tunneled O and theorycraft and thats about it. His style is consistent as always.

Ins. I had a townread on him day1-2. He than put both me and Cuzz on L-1. I hated that and I pointed it out at the times. He did hammer sparky, but only as sparky was beyond saving. He voted jo, but so did Robz and Cuzz and I was about to. Theo didn't, but he didn't vote at all, so that makes it even, maybe even worse. On retrospect, he maybe seemed MafiaVIII-ish at one point.

Torn here. Ins kinda more scummy but theo playing soo bad (which I don't think he does often, he was even more useful VI where he was scum but was hunting for other team).. maybe sliiiight more on teo.

[Cuzz]

Duuuuuude, being defensive is not a scumtell. It's a townieatlylowhodoesntwanttolosetell. I'm being defensive because

a. Robz had a case on me that I was afraid would make everyone see me as obvscum despite being a lie/wrong. Fortunately everyone is being a bit more discerning.

b. He's pushing for my lynch and everyone seems to be "leaning" towards agreeing with him.

c. We almost certainly lose if I get lynched.

Oh, and God forbid I want to get everyone to keep talking at this stage of the game. Are you worried your scum strategy of lurking and letting more active townies rip each other apart isn't gonna fly anymore?


/endrant. I still owe you guys some promised analysis, but unfortunately it won't happen tonight. Still need to reread and I'm really busy at the moment.

[Grujah]

Oh, and God forbid I want to get everyone to keep talking at this stage of the game. Are you worried your scum strategy of lurking and letting more active townies rip each other apart isn't gonna fly anymore?

Part was missing there, actually
"keeps callout out others to talk, while not doing the same; instead, defending himself over and over".

Kinda like.. now?

Looking forward to that analysis, than.

[theorel]

So really, the question to me is whether Insomniac is trying to win the game immediately or not.
If he's trying to win the game immediately, then Cuzz is clearly town.
If he's holding out for the long game, then Cuzz could in fact be his scum-partner...he's hoping to build a Cuzz-Theo pairing case and sell everyone on it, while leaving himself open to moving onto Grujah/Robz if it seems to go in that direction.

I disagree that my analysis was bad, and if anyone had been willing to listen yesterday we wouldn't have lynched jo.  (although we may have lynched O which wouldn't have been much better).  Note that while I involved the SK in my analysis, mostly it was based around Robz AND Cuzz pushing the jo lynch.  Seriously, scum bussing at that point would have been defining poor play...but then O derped and hammered (apparently preventing Grujah from derp-hammering).

Let's see:
2 of 3 scum stayed away from the PPS lynch day1.  O's stupid quick-hammer destroyed a lot of useful information gathering there (Sparky and Cuzz coming under heat day1?  Wow, this could have been a much different game)  Regardless of whether you believe Insomniac or I to be scum, this is true.  Regardless, this lead to me giving town-cred to Sparky and Insomniac day2, town-cred which was unfortunately really bad since they were both scum.

So then, we have 1 scum on the PPS-wagon.  Robz pushed it hard.  Cuzz kind of skirted around it for a bit before joining.  Grujah voted early and just stuck there.

Then we have day2.  Cuzz pushed to L-1, followed by Grujah...both claiming doctor.  Cuzz/Grujah and Robz on the wagons.    Frisk believes Grujah to be town, and Sparky to be scum.  And look, sparky was scum.  Robz really pushes the jo-lynch hard, always "saying" he'd be willing to lynch sparky.  I told him to go ahead and do it (when I voted, putting Robz in that third position which he claims is scummy when trying to paint me in a negative light).  Cuzz joins in, and Insomniac hammers.  Insomniac's hammering note is that he would have preferred to lynch Robz over Sparky.

Insomniac/Sparky pushed for Robz day1, and day2.  Was Insomniac just trying to get in an early bus hoping the town-cred would carry him through?  Or is Robz town.  SO MUCH WIFOM.

Day1 is interesting.  Insomniac RVS-voted Robz, and stuck with it all day long (building a case as he went).  Now, could this have been intentional?  I mean if Robz/Insomniac were a scum-team Robz could easily have said "I'm gonna jump all over PPS for his VT-comment, and you guys should push me because of it".  But then, would Insomniac really RVS-vote it?  Wouldn't he want the actual vote itself?  But then maybe he hoped to distance himself with it?

I was about to say that Insomniac early-bussing Robz seemed unlikely.  But having looked back at how it happened, I'm thinking it's actually pretty reasonable.  If this behavior was planned in the pre-game, I could totally see Robz pushing PPS all day long, and having Insomniac and Sparky stay away.  Eevee/Cayvie picked up on Sparky's overly-strong town read on pps day1.

Also interesting, Sparky's day1 "read" on Insom/Robz:
Robz888 - Already said, his behavior is much different this game than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.
Insomniac - Questioning other players a lot. Seems like different play than when I was his scumbuddy. More town than scum.

Yeah, I think that's it.  That's the scum-team.  A fair amount of my deduction relies on my extra piece of information, that Insomniac is scum.

As a side note: last time Robz called me out for not voting the person opposite me in a situation where really only one of us should be town, he was scum and the other person was scum also (that would be MVIII).  This reinforces my belief that Robz is scum.

@Grujah: I think scum is more likely to push their lynches than town.  Town doesn't KNOW who the scum are, so they're more likely to take a defensive posture.  Town is trying to figure it out, while scum can just choose a lynch and push it.  Scum takes an aggressive posture when they come under heat, because they just want to eliminate the credibility of the source, but town under heat just wants to defend themselves because they know nothing of the alignment of their attacker (generally).  While I think this is true generically, parts of it depend on personality (Insomniac defends himself by attacking regardless of alignment.  That's why he always reads scummy to me)

Anyways, I'll still listen to what others have to say, and try to keep an open mind.

[Cuzz]

Ok, I'll give my summary/thoughts on each player first and then consider scumteams.

Robz:

PPE this turned into a freaking tome. Reviews of others will have to wait unfortunately.

The really confusing one to me. Said many times before that I always got a town read from him. Probably because I tended to agree with him a lot, and I'm town myself. We were both on the wagon for all three lynches, so for example I didn't find his push against pps or jo to be all that scummy Though he was pushing for a jo lynch on D2 when I had no reason to suspect jo, and when I was sure jo was scum on D3 Robz was a little more hesitant to lynch him. Maybe he preferred townie lynch over bussing on D2, and preferred PR lynch over VT on D3, but had to go along when the winds changed direction each time.

He pushed pps hard, which is tough to analyze. I'm all in favor of punishing anti-town play, but it does suck that this is a really easy way for scum to get a townie out of the way quickly on D1. Just wait for a slip from a townie (didn't have to wait long here), push the anti-town narrative, talk about how this is beneficial for the overall meta of the site, and end the day before anyone else gets too much suspicion on them (though Robz did actually accrue a decent amount of suspicion). Hmm, maybe I need to rethink my position on this for next game.

D2 I had an exchange with Robz that seemed really odd. I stated that it seemed Eevee the Hider had hid behind ashersky, ashersky shot cayvie, and scum killed ashersky (thereby getting Eevee too). I then echoed a theory from theorel that maybe scum was hider-hunting after the discussion D1. They knew who almost everyone would hide behind, so try to find the hider, kill his target, ... profit? This seemed like a really reasonable possibility, and Robz pounced on me, unable to fathom how I might have deduced this (again, theorel's idea first):

You're so good at knowing what the scum were thinking, Cuzz.

In retrospect, I swear this could read as "You're so good at knowing what I was thinking, Cuzz."

Later in the day Robz pushes me hard, puts me to L-1 and then backs way off and really defends my claim after I do so. This seemed really town to me. He worded the evidence to support my claim even better than I did myself, and as jo said at the time, scum Robz could have easily argued against the claim and still tried to poison the town against me. But this would have looked really bad on D3 if Robz led the charge to lynch a claimed PR. Instead we move on to Grujah, Grujah claims, but Robz's (and my) suspicion of Grujah somewhat remains. It really looks like a Frisk-Grujah scumteam to me and Robz when Frisk claims JK and derails the Grujah lynch, but Frisk was telling the truth.

Robz claims tracker here, with an elaborate story about what his result looked like when he tracked ashersky. This seemed hard to fake at the time, but now I'm not so sure. He gave no new information, and I don't doubt Robz is smart enough to work out the details correctly. He had plenty of time to do so.

Robz and Frisk buddy up a bit later in D2 and both help to lynch sparky, but not before Robz waffles, changes his vote 12 times and declares with certainty that Insomniac is SK. This is interesting given the possible scumteams remaining.

D3 Robz initially agrees with my case on jo, then becomes certain that I'm scum because he's somehow cleared Grujah based on Grujah's interactions with sparky. He briefly votes me and then switches back to jo after my wagon fails to gain support. His case against me was odd given his support for my claim D2. This could read as Robz trying to lynch a doctor, any doctor, and simply deciding to build a case on me over Grujah. But Grujah had looked quite suspicious before, so would a fabricated case against me really be better than one on Grujah?

Ok now D4 and Robz comes out swinging against me. My townread on him falls apart when he calls me scum and claims I targeted no one. Interesting, when compared with this quote from D3:

Can't talk now, but real quick, I tracked jotheonah. My result: no one.

What does this mean? Not much, I am afraid, when busing and ninja is considered. I have thoughts obviously, which I will have to share when I have more time.

His "no one" read on jo means "not much" due to busdriving etc. I agreed with this, and in my mind this did not clear jo. But when he gets the same result on me? I'm obvscum. No busdriving possibility to consider. The positions he takes are contradictory but have in common the property that in each case, his interpretation of this read is the one that makes the townie look more suspicious. He didn't want to totally clear jo, the VT, so he makes a point of considering the busdriving possibility. But he does want to paint me as scum, so he refuses to acknowledge any possibility of his result being mistaken.

Note the info from his investigations: two easily fakeable results (oh the dead vig targeted the other dead townie, and the dead hider targeted the dead vig. complicated but not too hard to work out. and oh, the claimed VT targeted no one), and one WRONG result leading to a case on me. I have no real reason to doubt the notion that he's faking tracker.

He then has a serious issue with my protection of theorel. "Surely you would have protected a PR claim!" he says. "You idiot!" he wants to say, but holds back. Why should I have done that? Because scum obviously NKs a PR in this position right? Oh, except they didn't. WIFOM! Why is this reasoning so hard to follow? You have an issue with me protecting someone among the set that scum actually did target? Is it because you're frustrated that I as doctor drank from the right cup last night (sort of), and you as scum drank from the wrong one? Ok, so I obviously failed to prevent the NK (would any of you have protected O?) so I'm not some doctoring genius, but Robz's huge issue with my actions is reminiscent of our hider argument above from beginning of D2. He's possibly annoyed that town is onto his sneaky scum tactics.

This is a lot about Robz. Well he's posted twice as much as anyone else still alive, so there's a lot to analyze. Rereading his game though, I've pointed out a number of potential clues that could make sense as him being scum, but overall I still can't help but get that townie vibe. I said that if Robz is scum, he's playing a fantastic game, but he has so much experience with this game that I would not doubt at all that he could be scum. If he is scum, I swear I'm gonna use this game as a study guide.

For me it really comes down to the tracking issue. What are the odds that I was busdriven last night? If Robz is town, how could scum have been sure he was going to track me last night, as opposed to Grujah for example? The fact that his result lines up perfectly with his desire to lynch me yesterday is a nice scum ploy. I just don't know if it's Robz's ploy or someone else's. If Grujah hadn't been acting so freaking scummy all game the decision would be easy.

[Insomniac]

So first of all I'd like to thank theorel because its quite easy to punch a hole in your case and make it fall apart. Your theory behind me and robz as scum requires me to push robz all day 1 while be pushes PPS all day because of PPS's VT claim. I don't put that above something me and robz would do. In fact that is indeed something i could see us doing. But when PPS claimed vt was during role receipt phase. So you are implying that volt allowed mafia to talk during that time, AND that robz myself and sparky were on at the same time, otherwise when exactly could we have planned something based on something someone else did. Additionally your assuming I was pointing out and voting for a scum buddy numerous times before the lynch occurred, and that knowing he was scum I said I would have rather lynched my other scumbuddy? This case is bad theorel. You're better than that.

PPE: cuzz analysis is up. Haven't read it tho

[Robz888]

I'm fairly on my way to being convinced that the scum team is Cuzz-Theorel. Looks like it's going to come down to Grujah.

[theorel]

So first of all I'd like to thank theorel because its quite easy to punch a hole in your case and make it fall apart. Your theory behind me and robz as scum requires me to push robz all day 1 while be pushes PPS all day because of PPS's VT claim. I don't put that above something me and robz would do. In fact that is indeed something i could see us doing. But when PPS claimed vt was during role receipt phase. So you are implying that volt allowed mafia to talk during that time, AND that robz myself and sparky were on at the same time, otherwise when exactly could we have planned something based on something someone else did. Additionally your assuming I was pointing out and voting for a scum buddy numerous times before the lynch occurred, and that knowing he was scum I said I would have rather lynched my other scumbuddy? This case is bad theorel. You're better than that.

PPE: cuzz analysis is up. Haven't read it tho

Did volt not allow you to talk during that time?  I was under the impression that scum usually were able to talk before the game started.  (I was able to in MVI for example), that's kind of part of the pre-game.  pps confirmed before robz got his role pm (based on my memory of pre-game).  So, if you were able to talk pre-game you certainly could have talked about pps' vt-claim.

So, my case requires:
1. You decided as a team to bus Robz early, while Robz pushed the pps-wagon.
2. You decided to hammer sparky because O had expressed a town-read on Robz, and you didn't want to be off a wagon you knew would flip scum, even though you sacrificed being on a wagon you knew would flip scum to do it.
3. You pushed a case on sparky day2 (second only to Grujah), without voting for most of the day until the lynch was a near-certainty.  (This I KNOW happened regardless because it is literally impossible that you are town, I'm not using it as part of my case, it is simply fact.)

Your argument that your WIFOM should defeat any argument doesn't hold water.  You keep saying "your better than this" as though my analysis is bad.  Since I know you're scum, I must conclude that my analysis is on.

[Insomniac]

But theorel as I'm not scum and you are surely you can come up with a better argument than that I've seen you do it. Also I DID vote sparky before it was a near certainty please reread day 2. I moved to robz when he started callin me an obv sk. As a matter of fact I voted sparky before you did.

Vote: theorel

[Cuzz]

I'm fairly on my way to being convinced that the scum team is Cuzz-Theorel. Looks like it's going to come down to Grujah.

Your certainty looks so scummy right now. If you turn this into me v. you and it's ends up that Grujah (WHO HAS POSTED BARELY 50 TIMES ALL GAME) is scum I'm gonna be so pissed.

[Robz888]

I'm fairly on my way to being convinced that the scum team is Cuzz-Theorel. Looks like it's going to come down to Grujah.

Your certainty looks so scummy right now. If you turn this into me v. you and it's ends up that Grujah (WHO HAS POSTED BARELY 50 TIMES ALL GAME) is scum I'm gonna be so pissed.

Yeah, but at least we can blame Frisk, then.

[Robz888]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

[Cuzz]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

[Robz888]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

[Cuzz]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

[Robz888]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

The way he is interacting with theorel right now is very genuine to Insomniac, including the vote.

[Cuzz]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

The way he is interacting with theorel right now is very genuine to Insomniac, including the vote.

That's really not very specific...

And what's this about the vote? The one he said was anti-town to place earlier? And I thought he said we should be lynching a PR claim today.

But it seems he wants to vote theorel now. Because theorel's arguments are bad? Does this make him extra-positive that theorel is scum whereas he was only kinda positive before?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-1

theorel (1): Insomniac

Not voting {4}: Robz888, Grujah, Cuzz, theorel

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Tuesday, October 23, 12:00 noon EDT

[Insomniac]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

The way he is interacting with theorel right now is very genuine to Insomniac, including the vote.

That's really not very specific...

And what's this about the vote? The one he said was anti-town to place earlier? And I thought he said we should be lynching a PR claim today.

But it seems he wants to vote theorel now. Because theorel's arguments are bad? Does this make him extra-positive that theorel is scum whereas he was only kinda positive before?

Oh hai there scum. Yes I am voting theorel now, and yes it is because theorel's arguments are bad, I thought we could handle going into the last day with theorel, but he has resigned to making bad arguments that might successfully persuade ONE townie to do the wrong thing if that townie doesn't do their diligence and see that he is in fact making a bad argument.

I think if theorel wasn't being so anti-town right now it would be better to lynch a PR, but with this way at least we can guarantee a day 5.

[theorel]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

The way he is interacting with theorel right now is very genuine to Insomniac, including the vote.

That's really not very specific...

And what's this about the vote? The one he said was anti-town to place earlier? And I thought he said we should be lynching a PR claim today.

But it seems he wants to vote theorel now. Because theorel's arguments are bad? Does this make him extra-positive that theorel is scum whereas he was only kinda positive before?

Oh hai there scum. Yes I am voting theorel now, and yes it is because theorel's arguments are bad, I thought we could handle going into the last day with theorel, but he has resigned to making bad arguments that might successfully persuade ONE townie to do the wrong thing if that townie doesn't do their diligence and see that he is in fact making a bad argument.

I think if theorel wasn't being so anti-town right now it would be better to lynch a PR, but with this way at least we can guarantee a day 5.

Scumslip?
When exactly did you think that you could "handle" going into the last day with me.

Yeah, I'm ready to vote Robz.  Insomniac can't argue with me on merits, only able to claim my arguments are "bad".  @Cuzz/Grujah, do either of you take issue with my voting for Robz?

[Insomniac]

Cuzz let's say that IS the scenario. Grujah is scum. Okay, set that aside for a moment. Insomniac or Theorel?

I lean towards insomniac but I am so not confident about that. Need to reread both and only have phone access for the next few hours.

I lean toward theorel, since Insomniac is behaving exactly the way I have come to expect town Insomniac to behave.

How is that?

The way he is interacting with theorel right now is very genuine to Insomniac, including the vote.

That's really not very specific...

And what's this about the vote? The one he said was anti-town to place earlier? And I thought he said we should be lynching a PR claim today.

But it seems he wants to vote theorel now. Because theorel's arguments are bad? Does this make him extra-positive that theorel is scum whereas he was only kinda positive before?

Oh hai there scum. Yes I am voting theorel now, and yes it is because theorel's arguments are bad, I thought we could handle going into the last day with theorel, but he has resigned to making bad arguments that might successfully persuade ONE townie to do the wrong thing if that townie doesn't do their diligence and see that he is in fact making a bad argument.

I think if theorel wasn't being so anti-town right now it would be better to lynch a PR, but with this way at least we can guarantee a day 5.

Scumslip?
When exactly did you think that you could "handle" going into the last day with me.

Yeah, I'm ready to vote Robz.  Insomniac can't argue with me on merits, only able to claim my arguments are "bad".  @Cuzz/Grujah, do either of you take issue with my voting for Robz?

I did point out the bad merits in your argument, and handle it as in not have you blinding the town with you falsehoods.

[Robz888]

Cuzz, you and theorel are making very carefully plotted, lengthy, researched accusations. Insomniac's arguments, frankly, are a little on-the-surface and irritated. This is exactly how town Insomniac acts in the end game. On the other hand, I know that you and theorel would be extra deliberate with your opinions as scum.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I'm ready to vote Robz.  Insomniac can't argue with me on merits, only able to claim my arguments are "bad".  @Cuzz/Grujah, do either of you take issue with my voting for Robz?

Here's what theorel just said: "Insomniac is making bad arguments, and I should know him to be scum for a 100% fact. So I'm voting Robz. Can I get away with this?"

I hope not.

Vote: theorel

[Grujah]

vote: theorel

[Grujah]

[Insomniac]

Is that the hammer?

[Grujah]

Yes.

[Insomniac]

Vote: Theorel

just want to be double safe

[theorel]

And town loses...was it Robz or Grujah though?

[theorel]

Probably Grujah...given the hammer.

[Grujah]

I was feeling kinda down/blue today, this really had made my day.

@theo -

I sent this to Volt yesterday:
"I find it hillarous how all Robz's reads are completely wrong. "

Also, that a Busdriver rocking out.

So, yeah.

[Insomniac]

Twas Grujah. Also there was one specific reason I held off on voting theorel till today. I had a SK claim prepared for if somehow I got to L-1 which in turn meant theorel was town and that 2 PR's were lying which was why I was pushing PR all day

[Voltgloss]

THREAD LOCKED

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 4-2

theorel (3): Insomniac, Robz888, Grujah

Not voting {2}: Cuzz, theorel

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

A single, well-placed gunshot ended the life of theorel, Town Border Villager {Vanilla}.

And two well-placed knockout blows turned out the lights on the two remaining townies.

When they awoke, they found themselves locked away in the town jail, with a pile of corpses just outside.  A man stood there, counting the corpses.

"...seven, eight, nine..."  He paused, then frowned.  Then looked up at Robz888, Town Cartographer {Tracker}, and Cuzz, Town Oracle {Doctor}, and grinned.  "Ten, eleven." 

Insomniac, Mafia Jack of All Trades {JoaT}, rode up with another horse in tow.  He addressed the speaker.  "Any trouble, boy?"

"Thought I was havin' trouble with my adding."  Grujah, Mafia Schemer {Bus Driver}, saddled up and winked.  "It's all right now."

And off they went.

The Game Is Over.  Mafia Wins!!

Night action summaries and QT links to be posted shortly.

[Robz888]

RAGE.

[Robz888]

Well, I screwed up big time. In my haste not to repeat MIV, I repeated MIV exactly.

[Insomniac]

I told Volt I had readied an SK speech for if I got to L-1 and promised to post it after the game if it wasn't needed. So here it is.

STOP, I am indeed the serial killer as you all concluded at the end of day 2. This is why I had avoided voting for Theorel today until he relentlessly pushed on me as, he CANNOT be scum. All of my posts today have been a push towards the fake-PR for this reason. Because I know that I exist I know that not one but TWO of the PR's must be lying (0 or 2 is the only possibility) with 0 that means theorel and myself are mafia, but this is not possible as I am the serial killer. Additionally I thought if I pushed for theorel it would become apparent that I was a VT which is how I still wanted to appear to maximize my chances of winning.

Now night 1 I shot Eevee (failed due to him hiding)

night 2 I shot O as I thought he was scum, I don't know why I failed here I suspect O was busdriven or I was roleblocked, or jailkept.

Night 3 I shot O as I still suspected he was scum. I suspect that scum shot O as well, or myself, or they shot O and roleblocked me.

If you lynch me it goes to 2v2 and you lose, if you lynch theorel you lose but I can still win. If we lynch a PR it's still anyones game. (2v1v1) if we're wrong and (1v1v2) if we're right.

I can't explain exactly what will happen as I don't know that the Mafia JOAT has nor if I'm still bulletproof or which PR is lying so there is a lot of variables.

[jotheonah]

Really well played guys. And possibly my worst played game ever. *hangs head in shame*

[Dsell]

Well, I screwed up big time. In my haste not to repeat MIV, I repeated MIV exactly.

[Robz888]

Still, I wasn't going to vote for Grujah, no matter how long this day went on. And I doubt I would have picked Insomniac over Theorel. And my own lynch might have gained steam. So this was headed for a loss today no matter what.

[Captain_Frisk]

-1 To Volt for failing to trollmod.

+2 to volt for modding.

[Robz888]

Really well played guys. And possibly my worst played game ever. *hangs head in shame*

I hear you, pal.

[Captain_Frisk]

Congrats guys.  That was a great game.  Looking forward to reading the mafia QT following day 2.

[Robz888]

Of course I was utterly convinced Grujah was scum on Day 2, until a certain Jailkeeper came to his rescue...

[jotheonah]

Really well played guys. And possibly my worst played game ever. *hangs head in shame*

I hear you, pal.

And this is counting my blundering VT-claim in MIV AND my getting called out day 1 as SK in MIII.

[Captain_Frisk]

100% true.  Galz wasn't fooled either.

[Dsell]

This was a REALLY impressive mafia showing.

I think this game (as well as MIV) is a testament to how power=information in mafia. Grujah looked far scummier than Cuzz after the massclaim but they were able to coolly redirect attention elsewhere and ultimately make him look townier in the eyes of the other townies.


PPE: 6 new replies. Ha.

[Insomniac]

I was ready to slam a hammer on you Robz if 2 people voted for you I had a tab with

"Sorry Robz, Game over. Vote: Robz" in it ready to post.

Also We got SUPER lucky hitting Eevee night 1 it was pure luck, they asked theorel or ash and I said ash because I thought theorel was the hider.

Also I tried so hard to bus BOTH of my scummates on day 2.

[jotheonah]

I think we've all learned a valuable lesson about setup speculation and mass claims. Never again.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah - was the doctor claim intentional?  Ie - did you realize that cuzz had already claimed?  Was it designed to draw out the JK?

[theorel]

Yep, well played scum.
@Robz: I really thought you were town over and over, so my pushing for you should be considered as praise for your mafia skills...because I decided to ignore my town-read.

[Voltgloss]

Night 1 actions:

- Eevee hides behind ashersky.
- Captain_Frisk jailkeeps O.
- Cuzz tries to protect Eevee but fails (because Eevee is hiding).
- ashersky nightkills cayvie.
- Insomniac nightkills ashersky (and Eevee).
- Robz888 tracks ashersky (and Eevee), obtaining the result "cayvie" (and "ashersky").

Night 2 actions:

- Captain_Frisk jailkeeps theorel.
- Cuzz protects Captain_Frisk.
- Insomniac strongman-nightkills Captain_Frisk (bypassing Cuzz's protection).
- Robz888 tracks jotheonah, obtaining the result "no one."
- Grujah fails to get his action in on time.  :p

Night 3 actions:

- Grujah busdrives Cuzz and theorel.
- Cuzz protects theorel (and thus actually protects himself).
- Insomniac ninja-nightkills O.
- Robz888 tracks Cuzz (and thus actually tracks theorel, obtaining the result "no one").

Schroedinger's Serial Killer never existed.

Spectator QT:  http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/nbmTBZM3A5J
Mafia QT:  http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/cJaT697g2aEb
Modnotes QT:  http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/fdqqTyrWrijb

[Robz888]

In future games I will simply indiscriminately vote to kill anyone with a below average post count. That would have worked here, or nearly worked.

[Captain_Frisk]

Note to self - post alot the next time I'm scum.

[Insomniac]

Also you know how hard it is to keep up my normal high post count AND my normal retaliatory style as scum, let me tell you it was hard to not lurk or to be more calm but I knew that my meta would kill me if I didn't retaliate all the time AND if I didn't frequent post.

[Insomniac]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

[Dsell]

That was some legit busdriving. Perfection.

[Insomniac]

@Galz "Did nobody notice that in #1520, Insomniac starts by listing all pairs, and then immediately drops Robz-Insomniac for no reason whatsoever?"

I dropped it because why would I analyze a pair with me in it and I did say that. I made the top part as a list for others to copy when they analyzed teams.

[Robz888]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

If you check the moderator thread, you'll see I waffled a lot between tracking you or tracking Cuzz. Of course I picked wrong. A thousand ughs.

[Insomniac]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

If you check the moderator thread, you'll see I waffled a lot between tracking you or tracking Cuzz. Of course I picked wrong. A thousand ughs.

If you tracked me you would have seen my SK claim a lot earlier because you CAN'T kill the SK today.

[Insomniac]

Makes me happy not seeing a lot of suspicion on me in the spec thread

[Captain_Frisk]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

If you check the moderator thread, you'll see I waffled a lot between tracking you or tracking Cuzz. Of course I picked wrong. A thousand ughs.

If you tracked me you would have seen my SK claim a lot earlier because you CAN'T kill the SK today.

RobZ doesn't care about SK claims.

[Voltgloss]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

If you check the moderator thread, you'll see I waffled a lot between tracking you or tracking Cuzz. Of course I picked wrong. A thousand ughs.

Well, even if you'd tracked Insom on Night 3, you'd have gotten "no result" because Insom was ninja-killing that night.

[jotheonah]

After we lost two PRs night 1, the town was slightly underpowered compared to scum. But that mass claim made everything so much worse for us. I think that was the game-losing moment.

[jotheonah]

And it wasn't even scum who suggested it!

[Captain_Frisk]

Once again - all my fault.

[Robz888]

Yeah. Reading the spec thread now.

Where is Ashersky, he who shoots obvtowns on Night 1 just for fun? I believe he has an apology to make...

[Grujah]

I'd like to believe it was both luck and skill that won us. Here's a day by day scumsummary:

Day 1:  I breadcrumb Doctor. And only doc; if I was to claim it would most likely be Doc. Robz went after PPS and I joined along. Easy lynch.
Night 1: We all though powers are unneed N1. I suggested ashersky, cuz he was staying in shades, I though he might be PR, which turned out to true. Had we shot somebody else, Robz would go against ashersky though, who knows what would happen. But still, probably our best kill. Sorry Eevee.

Day 2: When I got to L-1 i was sure I was going to die. I lurked too much. I was slightly drunk and only because I was lynched in MXI did I actually claim. Really didn't read Cuzz's post before. I also really hated Robz for pushing me for "Grujah was stupid cuz he was drunk" .
This also turned out to be one of the best things I've done (partly luck). C_F had to come out of hiding in order to protect us. And so did Rob than. I revealed 2 PRs with my claim, it was awesome. Busing sparky was a must at that point, nobody was gonna vote Robz (it was whole Mafia Team + jo on that wagon, btw).
Night 2: I was all for C_F dieing cuz JK is scary. We considered to leave C_F alive cuz he was trusting me completely, and to kill Robz cuz he hated me. I was AFK those days, it was RtR weekend I think. Ins made a CO where he would shot Robz if I submit and C_F if I don't. I submited too late, when day already started (I also believe I submited wrong order too ).

Day 3: In a surprise turnaround, Robz started trusting me completely. Dunno why, something about sparky whom I didn't push as hard as I wanted. To me it felt only natural (and easy) to push him. It was funny when he posted "Grujah is town, it just sucks that he is stuck on me being scum". Jumped on jo when opportunity arised.
Night 3: Ugh. Ins wanted to kill theo first, I suggested O was better cuz we can nail theo on being theorycraft only and tunneling O (or something). We hoped Robz would investigate Cuzz or theo which would pain them scum, hence the busdrive. If he investigated O I would push him for being worst Tracker ever. Only fallout in this plan was that if Robz investigated me, we were done for, very hard to win than, with Doc and Tracker. Didn't happen, though.

Day 4: I anticipated Cuzz lynch, and was ready to quickhammer at first sight of it. Robz slipped. Hurrah!

PPE: 31 replays. Whoah.

[Robz888]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

[Grujah]

After we lost two PRs night 1, the town was slightly underpowered compared to scum. But that mass claim made everything so much worse for us. I think that was the game-losing moment.

Yes, that helped us immensely. We practically orchestrad nights as we pleased.

[Grujah]

Also the bus for Robz tracking result was a scheme I devised as you can see, I just straight up KNEW Robz would track Cuzz. I didn't expect Cuzz to doctor theorel though that was a surprise.

If you check the moderator thread, you'll see I waffled a lot between tracking you or tracking Cuzz. Of course I picked wrong. A thousand ughs.

You would get no result, he ninja'd night 3. Only tracking me would be actually good, and you trusted me at that point.

[Robz888]

Day 2: When I got to L-1 i was sure I was going to die. I lurked too much. I was slightly drunk and only because I was lynched in MXI did I actually claim. Really didn't read Cuzz's post before. I also really hated Robz for pushing me for "Grujah was stupid cuz he was drunk" .

Oh I am weeping, openly weeping now. I knew this. I really did...

[Insomniac]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

 

Also my claim in MIX wasn't sloppy! I knew eHunt had claimed I chose to make it the way I did anyways.

[Captain_Frisk]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

I'll add one for you - pushing insomniac to vote for theorel!

[Grujah]

Grujah - was the doctor claim intentional?  Ie - did you realize that cuzz had already claimed?  Was it designed to draw out the JK?

It was intentional as I breadcrumbed it post #1. But I didn't know that Cuzz claimed, I only read it after my claim. I got sooo lucky that there actually was JK.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah - was the doctor claim intentional?  Ie - did you realize that cuzz had already claimed?  Was it designed to draw out the JK?

It was intentional as I breadcrumbed it post #1. But I didn't know that Cuzz claimed, I only read it after my claim. I got sooo lucky that there actually was JK.

I was really hoping it was advanced mafia play designed to either throw yourself away or fish out the JK.

[Robz888]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

I'll add one for you - pushing insomniac to vote for theorel!

It made NO SENSE for them not to vote for each other. Theorel not immediately voting for Insomniac and instead saying, "I could say insomniac is scum all day, but we need to look at blah blah blah.." looked sooo fake to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

I'll add one for you - pushing insomniac to vote for theorel!

It made NO SENSE for them not to vote for each other. Theorel not immediately voting for Insomniac and instead saying, "I could say insomniac is scum all day, but we need to look at blah blah blah.." looked sooo fake to me.

Serial killer possibility.

[Captain_Frisk]

I still can't believe you guys didn't give Grujah and Cuzz more shit for "doctoring" me.

[Robz888]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

I'll add one for you - pushing insomniac to vote for theorel!

It made NO SENSE for them not to vote for each other. Theorel not immediately voting for Insomniac and instead saying, "I could say insomniac is scum all day, but we need to look at blah blah blah.." looked sooo fake to me.

Serial killer possibility.

There was no believable SK possibility anymore. If there was SK, despite three straight nights of know unnacoutned deaths, whatever, we lose. That was the only rational way to approach it.

[Insomniac]

List of Stupid Play from Those Who Know (A Lot) Better:

Jotheonah: Pushed for O lynch. Peddled O-Robz theory. Liked every lynch except sparky. Proposed massclaim.
Frisk: Lurked. Defended Grujah, the idiot second doctor claim. Pushed mass claim.
Me: Tunneled Jo. Knew tracking would be deceptive; was deceived. Succumbed to Insomniac buddying.

I'll add one for you - pushing insomniac to vote for theorel!

It made NO SENSE for them not to vote for each other. Theorel not immediately voting for Insomniac and instead saying, "I could say insomniac is scum all day, but we need to look at blah blah blah.." looked sooo fake to me.

Serial killer possibility.

Was soooooooooo slim. I did like however that people kept saying I was SK or town and not mafia.

[Voltgloss]

Sadly, Robz, the below post is where you break your streak of "when I'm REALLY SURE of something I'm always right":

Sparky reappears from a long VLA, says he disbelieves Grujah's claim over Cuzz's, votes for Grujah.

Grujah is NOT mafia. Sparky wouldn't have done that if they were together.

PPE:  14 new replies.  You crazies. 

[Grujah]

Grujah - was the doctor claim intentional?  Ie - did you realize that cuzz had already claimed?  Was it designed to draw out the JK?

It was intentional as I breadcrumbed it post #1. But I didn't know that Cuzz claimed, I only read it after my claim. I got sooo lucky that there actually was JK.

I was really hoping it was advanced mafia play designed to either throw yourself away or fish out the JK.

It's kinda like those Drunk-Kung-Fu style. I get drunk and do expert stuff.

Also, I've already said this, but this "borrowed time" principled rocked hard! We had time pressure, but it was never as bad as regular time pressure.

[Eevee]

Well played mafia. Glad to see other people blunder end games as town too!

I appreciate the effort night 1, Cuzz!

[Robz888]

Sadly, Robz, the below post is where you break your streak of "when I'm REALLY SURE of something I'm always right":

Sparky reappears from a long VLA, says he disbelieves Grujah's claim over Cuzz's, votes for Grujah.

Grujah is NOT mafia. Sparky wouldn't have done that if they were together.

PPE:  14 new replies.  You crazies. 

Yeah, sparky played really well on Day 1, I think.

[Insomniac]

"Insom mulling a no-kill night is very interesting."

I really did think hard about no-kill, I think it would have potentially ended the same.

[jotheonah]

I still can't believe you guys didn't give Grujah and Cuzz more shit for "doctoring" me.

This this this.

[Voltgloss]

Also, I've already said this, but this "borrowed time" principled rocked hard! We had time pressure, but it was never as bad as regular time pressure.

Agreed, I like the "bankable time" approach very much.  How did the rest of you feel about it?

And thanks to you all for coming along this wild ride.  I've enjoyed running it very much. 

And maybe, one day, I'll mod a non-Bastard game that doesn't end in a Mafia win. 

[Insomniac]

I still can't believe you guys didn't give Grujah and Cuzz more shit for "doctoring" me.

This this this.

I knew Cuzz was write when he said you were strongmanned...so I wasn't going to push that avenue.

[Insomniac]

*right

don't know what I was thinking of.

[Robz888]

Frisk from the spec QT: "If PPS early claimed VT in the next game I played with him, i'd lynch him again and be happy about it."

Yes, thank you.

[Insomniac]

Frisk from the spec QT: "If PPS early claimed VT in the next game I played with him, i'd lynch him again and be happy about it."

Yes, thank you.

Knew he was town but even if I didn't still wouldn't push for that lynch to easy for scum to get on that wagon.

[Captain_Frisk]

Frisk from the spec QT: "If PPS early claimed VT in the next game I played with him, i'd lynch him again and be happy about it."

Yes, thank you.

Knew he was town but even if I didn't still wouldn't push for that lynch to easy for scum to get on that wagon.

It's not about that game - but all future games.

[Robz888]

From the spec QT, Galzria talking about me seeming scummy:

So is Robz, but in a town Robz way.

"Grujah, you've contributed nothing and your opinions are wrong, now will you please do as I say and hammer"

I mean, really?

That should be a clear indicator of my towniness, yeah. I just wouldn't dare to say something like that as scum. Of course now that I've said this, I may have to try..

[Eevee]

Frisk from the spec QT: "If PPS early claimed VT in the next game I played with him, i'd lynch him again and be happy about it."

Yes, thank you.

And I would argue against it again. 

Forgot to say, thanks for modding Volt! Your games are always awesome.

[Insomniac]

Frisk from the spec QT: "If PPS early claimed VT in the next game I played with him, i'd lynch him again and be happy about it."

Yes, thank you.

Knew he was town but even if I didn't still wouldn't push for that lynch to easy for scum to get on that wagon.

It's not about that game - but all future games.

That's a load no matter my alignment I play to win the current game

[Captain_Frisk]

It's a policy lynch for a reason!

[Insomniac]

It's a policy lynch for a reason!

Becuse it's bad and you should feel bad!

[Grujah]

Mod QT gems:
Fastest "game start" to "Robz snaps" time ever.
Hah!

'This is where Grujah's "I won't be forceclaimed" meta is really liable to bite him in the ass. Should be interesting to see.'
They should have pushed me for this. I wouldn't have had claimed as real Doc.

"Insomniac is bussing like mad! "
I hated him when he both voted me, and when he stole my sparky hammer.

"I have to laugh every time I read CF's "scum Grujah wouldn't be so stupid to fakeclaim doctor" argument. I mean, I get why CF thinks that. AND YET~!..."
Yeah, not the smartest role to breadcrumb and stick with.

"When scumRobz is pressured, he remains cool, calm, and collected.
When townRobz is pressured, he goes haywire.

This is a pretty consistent Robz meta."
Thanks.

'if O hammers Robz now, he earns a new moniker: "the Derphammer"'
Hah!

'IF Grujah busses Robz/Jo and kills Jo, THEN Insom will roleblock CF. ELSE, Insom will strongman-kill CF.'
I sent "Buss Cuzz and jo" that night. Lol. Would end up in Robz pushing jo and them both dying! nice.

'Cuzz is going for the world record at "Doctoring people during the night and watching them die anyway."'
Hah!

'lol at jo, frantic to stay alive (as town), asking two other town players if they will vote OTHER town players instead of him'
Laughed hard.

PPE: 25.

[yuma]

Really fun game to watch from a mod perspective, as I said in the Mod QT here are my two take aways from the game.

"1. lynch lurkers as town 2. buss hard beginning day 1 as mafia."

[Robz888]

Really fun game to watch from a mod perspective, as I said in the Mod QT here are my two take aways from the game.

"1. lynch lurkers as town 2. buss hard beginning day 1 as mafia."

Pretty much, yeah.

I just didn't think sparky would have the foresight to try and bus Grujah specifically when he did it, because this is only sparky's second game. But as I've said, he improved dramatically since MIX (though still under-posted!).

[Galzria]

@Galz "Did nobody notice that in #1520, Insomniac starts by listing all pairs, and then immediately drops Robz-Insomniac for no reason whatsoever?"

I dropped it because why would I analyze a pair with me in it and I did say that. I made the top part as a list for others to copy when they analyzed teams.

I'm late to this party, but go back and look at that post. You did NOT drop ANY other pair that included you. Only Robz-Insomniac got dropped without notes.

[Robz888]

I'm repeating myself at this point, but it's worth repeating. In the future, I will view lurkers the way Catelyn Stark views the Lannisters.

[Captain_Frisk]

Why do you think i was lurking?  My biggest posting gap was over a weekend.

[Insomniac]

@Galz "Did nobody notice that in #1520, Insomniac starts by listing all pairs, and then immediately drops Robz-Insomniac for no reason whatsoever?"

I dropped it because why would I analyze a pair with me in it and I did say that. I made the top part as a list for others to copy when they analyzed teams.

I'm late to this party, but go back and look at that post. You did NOT drop ANY other pair that included you. Only Robz-Insomniac got dropped without notes.

Huh interesting it was unintentional

[Galzria]

Here's the post for reference. Notice 10 pairs in the exhaustive list, but only 9 looked at below that! Robz-Insomniac dropped for no reason! ... Not that it was CORRECT, but boy it stood out to me.

Here is an exhaustive list of possible pairings

Robz-Insomniac
Robz-Grujah
Robz-Cuzz
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Insomniac-Theorel
Grujah-Cuzz
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel

Now
Robz-Grujah implies SK in VTs
Robz-Cuzz implies SK in VTs
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Insomniac-Theorel -- implies no PR lying, implies SK in PR's therefore implies 2 PRs are lying, not possible
Grujah-Cuzz implies SK in VTs
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel


So that means that possible teams WITH a SK in game are
Robz-Grujah
Robz-Cuzz
Grujah-Cuzz

Possible teams with NO SK
Robz-Theorel
Insomniac-Grujah
Insomniac-Cuzz
Grujah-Theorel
Cuzz-Theorel



Now since I know I'm not scum I will rank the teams that do not have me in them
1) Theorel-Cuzz - Theorel has been one of the lurkier players but tends to have walls of text when he is around, but those walls of text are mostly information, couple this with his low ranking of sparky when he did have analysis, his third vote without reason on sparky, and his minimal to low interaction with all players and the fact that I know he is scum. I'm more inclined to believe Robz in the Robz v Cuzz because of reasons I've outlined before therefore This is my number ONE team.

2) Theorel-Grujah - For theorel see above. Grujah was lurky and has been scummy, this implies he bussed sparky really hard but I wouldn't put it past a scum Grujah to do that for town cred. Theorel has generally given Grujah a 'town' rating just like he did with sparky.

3) Theorel-Robz - I find this to be pretty unlikely given they came out against each other today, it is third only because I know that Theorel is scum.

4) Grujah-Cuzz - I don't think theres an SK so this is where my SK teams start Cuzz is one of the few people that hasn't given Grujah town credit (the other myself), if this is the team then Cuzz is protecting himself if Grujah flips scum before Cuzz does and also makes Cuzz's reads a bit more useless if he dies first.

5) Robz-Grujah - This would mean that Robz drove the second wagon of D2 on his buddy and they both fake claimed that day and that they eventually wagond their third partner, I don't see it.

6) Robz-Cuzz - Cuzz has given Robz a lot of strong town reads, Robz has not returned the sentiments. If this is the scum team well I'll take the loss happily.


Teams 1-3 are the only teams I'm really willing to accept at this point. If there is an SK it has to be theorel and makes 4-6 the only possible teams but I do not believe Theorel to be a SK.


Based on my teams I find myself willing to vote Theorel, and out of the PR's most willing to lynch Cuzz.

I encourage everyone to do an analysis like the above. substituting the teams that include me in for the teams that include yourself.

[Insomniac]

"Insomniac is bussing like mad! "
I hated him when he both voted me, and when he stole my sparky hammer.

It worked out though you became obvtown and I was never suspected of anything besides SK. I was pretty choked when you were vacant for the night 2 deadline though so I guess we're even.

[Robz888]

Why do you think i was lurking?  My biggest posting gap was over a weekend.

Objectively, you were lurking, until the drama at the end of Day 2. Two thirds of the scum team were among the 3 least-frequent posters when I measured halfway through Day 2.

[Eevee]

I'm repeating myself at this point, but it's worth repeating. In the future, I will view lurkers the way Catelyn Stark views the Lannisters.

What Catelyn is doing to the Lannister family is actually an excellent example of super-irrational and super-annoying tunneling, so good analogy! Do you also screw up anything you ever attempt and mainly harm the people you love like she does?

..kidding, I too hope we will finally start actually lynching them after this game.

[yuma]

My third take away from this game is to not miss another Voltgloss hosted game... I have not played in all three of them....

So Volt, you can count me as /in for the next one now (INB4ROBZ)

[Insomniac]

I'm repeating myself at this point, but it's worth repeating. In the future, I will view lurkers the way Catelyn Stark views the Lannisters.

What Catelyn is doing to the Lannister family is actually an excellent example of super-irrational and super-annoying tunneling, so good analogy! Do you also screw up anything you ever attempt and mainly harm the people you love like she does?

..kidding, I too hope we will finally start actually lynching them after this game.

This policy I like. I don't like policy lynching people for play like PPS's this game.

[Robz888]

The difference between lynching people for lurking, and lynching people for some other anti-town behavior, is that lynching for lurking would actually have a fairly good track record as of late, I suspect. This game, and also MIX, at the very least. Oh, and VII! But that was just a mass lurk game.

[Insomniac]

The difference between lynching people for lurking, and lynching people for some other anti-town behavior, is that lynching for lurking would actually have a fairly good track record as of late, I suspect. This game, and also MIX, at the very least. Oh, and VII! But that was just a mass lurk game.

Let me tell you it would have been sooo hard for me to win as the only non lurker on my team.

[sparky5856]

We won?

ZOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM EDUCATION IS AWESOME ZOOOOOOOOMMM

I gotta say, I was laughing SO hard at Robz's stream of posts on Page 53.

I must say, sparky played scum much, much better than in MIX. His posts are completely devoid of useful content, but they didn't appear like that at the time. Points for him. Very hard to get anything out of what he's said, and almost nobody else said much about him, either. A very good under-the-radar scum.

I left behind a good trail didn't I  I've played mafia before on other forums so I have some experience, this was definitely the most intense game I've ever played though. The very first time I was ever scum, I hardcore bussed my only partner on Day 3, and I ended up surviving to the end and winning. I've been called a dangerous scum player in the past. I would say that one of the biggest things going in our favor was, well, the lack of a trail left by me as Jo initially pointed out in Day 2 for one, but also the fact that you all only lynched the weakest of the three scum; I still managed to divert attention from my scummates successfully lol. But next time I definitely can't be lurking as much >_<

Well played Grujah and Insomniac and nice use of powers 

[Insomniac]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

[yuma]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

[Captain_Frisk]

I think this all boils back to the early VT claim.  I was so pissed that it seemed that the day 1 lynch was a foregone conclusion. 

[Galzria]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

Lynch all lurkers. End of story.

[Captain_Frisk]

Thats just as bad as me tunneling PPS i think.

[yuma]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

Lynch all lurkers. End of story.

I think it boils down to lynch all scummy lurkers... I certainly had a unique perspective knowing alignments, but I could tell the difference between Grujah and sparky "lurking" and cuzz and theorel "lurking"

[Robz888]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

Lynch all lurkers. End of story.

I think it boils down to lynch all scummy lurkers... I certainly had a unique perspective knowing alignments, but I could tell the difference between Grujah and sparky "lurking" and cuzz and theorel "lurking"

But objectively, Grujah and sparky lurked more than Cuzz and theorel. Cuzz and theorel straddled the line. Grujah and sparky LURKED.

[Insomniac]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

Lynch all lurkers. End of story.

I think it boils down to lynch all scummy lurkers... I certainly had a unique perspective knowing alignments, but I could tell the difference between Grujah and sparky "lurking" and cuzz and theorel "lurking"

I don't think I would have known the difference on the other side of the looking glass. PPE: Robz is true that Grujah and sparky lurked more but I did call theorel a lurker to help my case.

[Captain_Frisk]

Grujah's posts post doctor claim felt like scum to me - but I had the "no way is he that crazy" goggles on.

[Cuzz]

My phone is inadequate to express my irritation at the moment. Robz is getting an earful when I get home.

[ashersky]

Congrats mafia, well played.

Robz, I disagree with your vigs shouldn't shoot line, so I won't apologize there, although I did to Cayvie in the spec thread.  Obvtown she was not.

Didn't see this outcome coming though.  Great game.

Big thanks to Volt for modding!

[Captain_Frisk]

My phone is inadequate to express my irritation at the moment. Robz is getting an earful when I get home.

+1

[O]

Hmm.. two townspeople drove the wagon on me straight the entire game... rather unfortunate.

In fact, scum did a good job staying off my wagon entirely. I limited my scumhunt to people I thought I could actually get lynched (because if I went "oh I think Insomniac's scum" over and over again I knew I would just end up getting lynched, a not-protown outcome).

[Galzria]

According to the leaderboard document I was only bested in post content by Robz and Captain_Frisk...apparently when Frisk comes out of lurk he comes out HARD.

along those same lines... Grujah posted a whole 68 times all game... compared to Robz=416! and Eevee (died Night 1)=51

Lynch all lurkers. End of story.

I think it boils down to lynch all scummy lurkers... I certainly had a unique perspective knowing alignments, but I could tell the difference between Grujah and sparky "lurking" and cuzz and theorel "lurking"

Actually, I agree, and I've pointed out this key difference in other ongoing games. It can't be uniform, but should be looked at individually. However, town lurking is just as anti-town as scum lurking.

[Robz888]

Congrats mafia, well played.

Robz, I disagree with your vigs shouldn't shoot line, so I won't apologize there, although I did to Cayvie in the spec thread.  Obvtown she was not.

Didn't see this outcome coming though.  Great game.

Big thanks to Volt for modding!

The reason you are wrong is that shooting Day 1 is pretty uninformed. You think you are going to do better than the town, which almost always mislynches Day 1? Really, we are lucky you didn't kill a town PR: we had a bajillion of them!

[Robz888]

My phone is inadequate to express my irritation at the moment. Robz is getting an earful when I get home.

From you, I deserve it. Go ahead.

[Captain_Frisk]

To be fair Cuzz, RobZ was not the only one who thought you were scum.

[Captain_Frisk]

search the spec thread for "calling it now"

I think they all involve Cuzz == scum.

[ashersky]

Congrats mafia, well played.

Robz, I disagree with your vigs shouldn't shoot line, so I won't apologize there, although I did to Cayvie in the spec thread.  Obvtown she was not.

Didn't see this outcome coming though.  Great game.

Big thanks to Volt for modding!

The reason you are wrong is that shooting Day 1 is pretty uninformed. You think you are going to do better than the town, which almost always mislynches Day 1? Really, we are lucky you didn't kill a town PR: we had a bajillion of them!

Fair point.  Mafiascum's vig entry says shoot, so there's that.

[Captain_Frisk]

Did any town powers actually do anything useful?

I think its 5 PRs with 100% miss, right?

[Galzria]

search the spec thread for "calling it now"

I think they all involve Cuzz == scum.

To be fair, prior to Joth's death, they all included him as well.

Hmm, I think Insomniac is the only person who never got called scum in the Spec thread.

[Robz888]

In the end, I was most sure theorel was scum, because I was most sure Insomniac wasn't.

I have to again emphasize how well Insomniac played. I think he subtly used what I know about him from 10 other games against me.

[Insomniac]

Did any town powers actually do anything useful?

I think its 5 PRs with 100% miss, right?

That sounds correct, Robz had a false negative.

[O]

Did any town powers actually do anything useful?

I think its 5 PRs with 100% miss, right?

you saved me from dying from the vig, right?

[Robz888]

Did any town powers actually do anything useful?

I think its 5 PRs with 100% miss, right?

They were negative utility, since Eevee being hider got him killed, ashersky being Vig got cayvie killed.

[Robz888]

Did any town powers actually do anything useful?

I think its 5 PRs with 100% miss, right?

you saved me from dying from the vig, right?

No, the Vig shot Cayvie.

[Insomniac]

In the end, I was most sure theorel was scum, because I was most sure Insomniac wasn't.

I have to again emphasize how well Insomniac played. I think he subtly used what I know about him from 10 other games against me.

Thank you sir. A lot of my posts I tried to forget who my scum team was and post as if I was town, which is why I was relentless on Grujah/Sparky day 2. The few times I did take off the town blinders it slipped by.

[Ozle]

blah blah TLDR

ROBZ WASNT MAFIA???!!!

[Cuzz]

Justagamejustagamejustagamesoangryjustagame

[Galzria]

To be fair, this game was a foregone conclusion. Anybody who follows the Leaderboard would've known it was Mafia's turn to win. Just like Town will win the next game to conclude (This pattern has only been broken once, and was instantly rectified).

[Captain_Frisk]

And because I always lose, I must be scum in the next game.

[Insomniac]

And because I always lose, I must be scum in the next game.

You are second for most wins...

[Captain_Frisk]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

[Insomniac]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

Role madnesses and blitz's count.

[Captain_Frisk]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

Role madnesses and blitz's count.

Thats good, becuase 5 and 9 were just as strange.

[Insomniac]

NM I was looking at losses 

[Robz888]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

Role madnesses and blitz's count.

Since when does Role madness count? Although I guess that should boost me, I'm still a little sore about Jo's overpowering at the end of RMM1.

[Captain_Frisk]

NM I was looking at losses 

I didn't feel bad about it originally - as M4 never felt winnable to me, but then damn Voltgloss got a SK win.

[Grujah]

Speccy QT. Almost every ehunt's post is pure gold. I especially like:

about theo-O day 2:
If I were theorel right now I'd ragequit

if Grujah flips doctor, certainly the jailkeeper should not protect Cuzz!

Him raging about PRs chances and people not taking risks over it. Hillarous!

"facepalm @ Grujah" (for, I believe, my 'you can't solve mafia with math' comment)"

Also Galz throwing: "sparky's post seems so scummy" every 50 posts or so.

Also, listen to your Mod, guys:
"Ironically, I think they may have been better off lynching a claimed power role, even if they actually HIT a power role. They need confirmation about how many power roles are lying, because they need to figure out whether Schroedinger's SK exists. The presence/absence of an SK is throwing all reads into question, and they're never going to get to the truth without pinning that down first. "

C_F on InsSK day 4 is hilarious

PPE: 50 apparently.

[Grujah]

@Ins's play -
I was to post in my biggish Day 4 post that his play resembled MVIII at some point; and I think it did. But I kept that for me only instead, I think.

[yuma]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

you also won M3

[Ozle]

I dont think i have won a game yet!

[Galzria]

I dont think i have won a game yet!

You won BMMMMMM as Mod.

[yuma]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

Role madnesses and blitz's count.

and I don't count rm but do count blitz

[Ozle]

I dont think i have won a game yet!

You won BMMMMMM as Mod.

Except I died...........or did I?!
Coming Soon...... BMMMMMM II THE REVENGE!

[theorel]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

[Robz888]

Well Ozle's game was more balanced that Blitz2...

[sparky5856]

Also Galz throwing: "sparky's post seems so scummy" every 50 posts or so.

I suppose I should be glad Galz wasn't in this game otherwise I would have been dead immediately. xD

[Ozle]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

[Insomniac]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

[Ozle]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

Lies.
Plus, never said i didnt like being mafia, I just said I am no good at it!
I want to be a serial Killer! (Like I was in Frisks BM game before he made me replace someone GRRR!)

[Galzria]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

Vote: Ozle

[Cuzz]

Need to catch up on the endgame and the QT but for now:

[Ozle]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

Vote: Ozle

*rules Glaz out of BMMMMM II: The Curse of the Ozle*

[Galzria]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

Vote: Ozle

*rules Glaz out of BMMMMM II: The Curse of the Ozle*

 

Can Galrobzia play?

[Ozle]

@Ozle: I've never won a game yet which is certainly more impressive.

You should Mod one, apparently it gives you an auto win! (As thats the only game I have actually won I think, but then I am pretty much usually mafia, and I am a crap mafia!)

play again you'll get town for sure.

Vote: Ozle

*rules Glaz out of BMMMMM II: The Curse of the Ozle*

 

Can Galrobzia play?

He can play in MAFIA NAUGHTS AND CROSSES!!  (Capitalisation intentional)

If Town lynch a mafia they get to put a 0, if they lynch a town the mafia get to put an X
Town have to stop Mafia getting 3 X's in a row as well as normal win condition

[Cuzz]

Thanks so much to Volt for modding. This game was a ton of fun. And congrats to Insom, Grujah and sparky.

Now to go play OoT and drown Link over and over again 

[Cuzz]

But man, I didn't even get a chance to post my most likely scumpairs and I swear Insomniac/Grujah was at the top of that list and none of you will ever believe me.

[Cuzz]

I had so much AP at night I honestly downloaded a coinflipping app to make some of those doctor decisions. I was 50/50 between Eevee and cayvie N1, and between Robz and Frisk N2. Why I couldn't use a real coin I don't know.

Good thing two of the people I protected didn't get NK'd or anything.

Seriously though, great fun. I'm not actually that annoyed.

[Robz888]

But man, I didn't even get a chance to post my most likely scumpairs and I swear Insomniac/Grujah was at the top of that list and none of you will ever believe me.

You were right! That we wouldn't believe you.

 

[Cuzz]

But man, I didn't even get a chance to post my most likely scumpairs and I swear Insomniac/Grujah was at the top of that list and none of you will ever believe me.

You were right! That we wouldn't believe you.

 

Eh, nobody believed a goddamn thing I said all game either.

[Robz888]

Thanks so much to Volt for modding. This game was a ton of fun. And congrats to Insom, Grujah and sparky.

Now to go play OoT and drown Link over and over again 

[Cuzz]

Thanks so much to Volt for modding. This game was a ton of fun. And congrats to Insom, Grujah and sparky.

Now to go play OoT and drown Link over and over again 

I feel better now.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - I asked this in the spec thread - but I'm still not convinced on the proper town play for my situation.

It's the weekend, I've been away, and I come back to find that Joth has convinced half the town to claim "not jailkeeper"

Do I ignore it?  Lie and deny it?  Scum - did you know I was the jailkeeper as soon as I refused to claim? 

[Insomniac]

So - I asked this in the spec thread - but I'm still not convinced on the proper town play for my situation.

It's the weekend, I've been away, and I come back to find that Joth has convinced half the town to claim "not jailkeeper"

Do I ignore it?  Lie and deny it?  Scum - did you know I was the jailkeeper as soon as I refused to claim?

When you refused to claim I did actually write a note on my pc that you were probsJK

[ehunt]

So - I asked this in the spec thread - but I'm still not convinced on the proper town play for my situation.

It's the weekend, I've been away, and I come back to find that Joth has convinced half the town to claim "not jailkeeper"

Do I ignore it?  Lie and deny it?  Scum - did you know I was the jailkeeper as soon as I refused to claim?

It turns out town benefits tremendously if you lie and deny it! But that's only clear after the fact.

[Insomniac]

Oh and @Cuzz, I sort of believe you would have put Grujah and I first, because you were the only one who voiced suspicion of me this game at all. The Grujah part I find harder to believe but you also hadn't found him to be obvtown like many others and had the unique perspective of being the real doctor.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - I asked this in the spec thread - but I'm still not convinced on the proper town play for my situation.

It's the weekend, I've been away, and I come back to find that Joth has convinced half the town to claim "not jailkeeper"

Do I ignore it?  Lie and deny it?  Scum - did you know I was the jailkeeper as soon as I refused to claim?

It turns out town benefits tremendously if you lie and deny it! But that's only clear after the fact.

You guys would never play with me again if I lied and then we 1-2 lynched real town doctors.

[cayvie]

so in basic games

scum wins 100% of the time that i am killed n1
town wins 100% of the time that i'm not

clearly all doctors should always protect me n1.

[Grujah]

when did you die in MVI?

[cayvie]

when did you die in MVI?

n3

[Insomniac]

So - I asked this in the spec thread - but I'm still not convinced on the proper town play for my situation.

It's the weekend, I've been away, and I come back to find that Joth has convinced half the town to claim "not jailkeeper"

Do I ignore it?  Lie and deny it?  Scum - did you know I was the jailkeeper as soon as I refused to claim?

It turns out town benefits tremendously if you lie and deny it! But that's only clear after the fact.

You guys would never play with me again if I lied and then we 1-2 lynched real town doctors.

eh? Personally I don't hold wins/losses against decisions like that and wouldn't have blamed you if I was town and that happened.

so in basic games

scum wins 100% of the time that i am killed n1
town wins 100% of the time that i'm not

clearly all doctors should always protect me n1.

But your catching up to ME for being most times NK'd (n1)

[Cuzz]

Oh and @Cuzz, I sort of believe you would have put Grujah and I first, because you were the only one who voiced suspicion of me this game at all. The Grujah part I find harder to believe but you also hadn't found him to be obvtown like many others and had the unique perspective of being the real doctor.

I'll take it. When i did my reread, I really still felt like Robz was town despite his false tracking, but I was somewhat conscious of looking like a complete idiot if he was scum and I had been Robzistowning all game. Then I thought about Grujah, and was kinda like wtf are we really letting him get away with being this quiet on D4?

With you, I just had kinda a gut feeling all game, but it was not much stronger than the one I had on O and he turned out to be town. And everyone else had such a town read on you I didn't think a wagon would ever take off, and there was always someone seemingly scummier to have my vote on (Grujah, sparky, jo). But in the back of my head, I kept thinking how pissed I was gonna be at myself if you were scum and I was the only one calling it and I just didn't try to push it hard enough.

[cayvie]

Did we start counting strange games?  I think I've only won M5 and M8?

Role madnesses and blitz's count.

Since when does Role madness count? Although I guess that should boost me, I'm still a little sore about Jo's overpowering at the end of RMM1.

hahaha oh man i raged so hard

[Cuzz]

so in basic games

scum wins 100% of the time that i am killed n1
town wins 100% of the time that i'm not

clearly all doctors should always protect me n1.

I was going to! I really was! I just thought Eevee was like 80% town and you were like 77% town. And I went with Eevee and he died anyway and fml.

[Insomniac]

Oh and @Cuzz, I sort of believe you would have put Grujah and I first, because you were the only one who voiced suspicion of me this game at all. The Grujah part I find harder to believe but you also hadn't found him to be obvtown like many others and had the unique perspective of being the real doctor.

I'll take it. When i did my reread, I really still felt like Robz was town despite his false tracking, but I was somewhat conscious of looking like a complete idiot if he was scum and I had been Robzistowning all game. Then I thought about Grujah, and was kinda like wtf are we really letting him get away with being this quiet on D4?

With you, I just had kinda a gut feeling all game, but it was not much stronger than the one I had on O and he turned out to be town. And everyone else had such a town read on you I didn't think a wagon would ever take off, and there was always someone seemingly scummier to have my vote on (Grujah, sparky, jo). But in the back of my head, I kept thinking how pissed I was gonna be at myself if you were scum and I was the only one calling it and I just didn't try to push it hard enough.

Fair enough that said Robz and theorel weren't lying I was playing this game like I play town. With a little more buddy up to Robz once I realized I couldn't get him lynched, and then when it worked I wanted him to not get lynched and buddied to him more with D4 being the pinnacle because I really wanted Robz lynch set up for D5 if I did somehow get to L-1 claim SK and die anyways.

[Insomniac]

Oh and Volt meant to ask

From the Mafia QT "Voltgloss
10-12-2012
01:37 PM ET (US)
I chuckle at both of you "

What were you chucklin about.

[Voltgloss]

Oh and Volt meant to ask

From the Mafia QT "Voltgloss
10-12-2012
01:37 PM ET (US)
I chuckle at both of you "

What were you chucklin about.

Just you and Grujah's immediately preceding comments.  You entering the town's commands for them, and Grujah (the guy who MISSED THE NIGHT 2 DEADLINE) commenting on the town's slowness Night 3 

[Insomniac]

Oh and Volt meant to ask

From the Mafia QT "Voltgloss
10-12-2012
01:37 PM ET (US)
I chuckle at both of you "

What were you chucklin about.

Just you and Grujah's immediately preceding comments.  You entering the town's commands for them, and Grujah (the guy who MISSED THE NIGHT 2 DEADLINE) commenting on the town's slowness Night 3 

ahh fair enough, to be honest I was spot on for robz.

[sparky5856]

Prob my favorite post in the Spec QT (#165 by Dsell):

Jo: "I can't understand how lynching scum is pro-town."

[Cuzz]

Prob my favorite post in the Spec QT (#298 by Volt, near end D3):

Prediction: this day will end with O waltzing in and implementing "a fine and useful tool for town."

[theorel]

Couple things.
1. @Robz.  I ask permission to vote, like all the time.  Also, chances are Cuzz would have said "let me get my pair analysis up".  So, I'm just noting that that was a terrible reason to vote for me.

2. Really should have realized that O's death implied scum did NOT kill Grujah.  That should have made Grujah way more suspicious, since scum had no reason not to kill him.

3. I really wish ehunt/Galzria had been in the game, I think my day3 analysis would have gotten more traction that way.  I actually found myself wishing that often.

4. If I'm ever scum again, I'm killing cayvie night1, so that I can finally win a game   (although I won't be joining any new games for a while; new baby coming early November, so I'm gonna cut out mafia for a bit.)

[ehunt]

Couple things.
1. @Robz.  I ask permission to vote, like all the time.  Also, chances are Cuzz would have said "let me get my pair analysis up".  So, I'm just noting that that was a terrible reason to vote for me.

2. Really should have realized that O's death implied scum did NOT kill Grujah.  That should have made Grujah way more suspicious, since scum had no reason not to kill him.

3. I really wish ehunt/Galzria had been in the game, I think my day3 analysis would have gotten more traction that way.  I actually found myself wishing that often.

4. If I'm ever scum again, I'm killing cayvie night1, so that I can finally win a game   (although I won't be joining any new games for a while; new baby coming early November, so I'm gonna cut out mafia for a bit.)

Congrats on the baby!

Can't speak for Galzria. Day three, the calculations were just so hard. Sitting in the QT I was unwilling to assume the possibility of a serial killer and decided just not to do the calculations, although I would have reluctantly drudged through them as town  (also in the QT there was the benefit of knowing that the vig shot). I was completely with you day two on O. I thought the "look for the jailkeeper" idea was really bad, and that town should just choose one of Cuzz or Grujah, then if they flipped town, choose the other.

Really gotta hand it to Insomniac. I was pretty sure reading Day Four there was just no way he could fake the analysis he was making.

[ehunt]

Couple things.
1. @Robz.  I ask permission to vote, like all the time.  Also, chances are Cuzz would have said "let me get my pair analysis up".  So, I'm just noting that that was a terrible reason to vote for me.

2. Really should have realized that O's death implied scum did NOT kill Grujah.  That should have made Grujah way more suspicious, since scum had no reason not to kill him.

3. I really wish ehunt/Galzria had been in the game, I think my day3 analysis would have gotten more traction that way.  I actually found myself wishing that often.

4. If I'm ever scum again, I'm killing cayvie night1, so that I can finally win a game   (although I won't be joining any new games for a while; new baby coming early November, so I'm gonna cut out mafia for a bit.)

Oh, but I was decidedly NOT with you on the hider plan, as I think I explained in the QT, although the quickhammer on PPS obviously made that go a lot worse, so that of course it looks bad in retrospect, which makes it hard to judge.

[Grujah]

FWIW, we put very little thought in hider thing N1, we just got lucky.

[Cuzz]

Just finished reading the QT. Did anyone think I was town? Christ.

[Captain_Frisk]

A remarkably close game considering how many bad things happened.

PPS VT Claim
Hider death
Vig shoots town
Town inspired mass claim
100% jailkeeper, doctor and tracker fail

[Cuzz]

Hey, I was 2/3 on protecting people who subsequently went on to get nightkilled.

[Captain_Frisk]

Mod notes was the best QT.

[Captain_Frisk]

Still can not believe that I fell for a drunk sloppy claim

[theorel]

I was pretty sure you were town at the end Cuzz...if only because I thought Robz was scum.  Insomniac certainly convinced me his partner was Robz (his buddying there definitely put him up on my list).  But really, sparky's early comment where he used nearly the exact same language to describe his scumbuddy and a town player that was alive at the end and suspicious sold it.  If you had gone after Grujah-Insomniac, I would have been fully convinced you were town (I guess we still would have lost if Robz wasn't to be convinced, but ah well, that's that).

Really, I think the lesson we should take from this (and MVIII) is that town should NOT vote for me at lylo, especially if someone I suspected as scum when no one else was willing to just died.  This is 2 in a row, where my suspicion was misplaced, scum killed the person I suspected, and I was incorrectly voted on to lose the game.

[Cuzz]

I was pretty sure you were town at the end Cuzz...if only because I thought Robz was scum.  Insomniac certainly convinced me his partner was Robz (his buddying there definitely put him up on my list).  But really, sparky's early comment where he used nearly the exact same language to describe his scumbuddy and a town player that was alive at the end and suspicious sold it.  If you had gone after Grujah-Insomniac, I would have been fully convinced you were town (I guess we still would have lost if Robz wasn't to be convinced, but ah well, that's that).

Really, I think the lesson we should take from this (and MVIII) is that town should NOT vote for me at lylo, especially if someone I suspected as scum when no one else was willing to just died.  This is 2 in a row, where my suspicion was misplaced, scum killed the person I suspected, and I was incorrectly voted on to lose the game.

Yeah I was just really disappointed because I still had a lot to say about everyone. I can't fault Robz too much because if he truly thought I was scum, why should he wait for what I have to say? Screw Robz.

It's hard to put my finger on it, but I just really thought Insomniac's type of comments at the end were easier to fake as scum than yours. I think when there's so few people left, it's harder to look pro-town because ending the game and winning is more important. That's why I wanted to see people talking a lot at the end, because as scum with 5 people left, how easy is it to write up a full essay on the game state and every other player and convince everyone that you don't know every detail already? I don't really know the answer, and that's why I still wasn't positive between the two of you. But it was that kind of reasoning that made me positive Jorbles was scum at the end of MX anyway.

[Insomniac]

LOL I forgot I said this night 3

Insomniac
10-11-2012
02:53 PM ET (US)
EDIT
DELETE
Cuzz will definetly protect you or Robz, so I'm not worried about being blocked here, if Cuzz doctors a VT well....thats bad doctoring. that said if you manage to hit the vt he doctors and bus it with cuzz then Cuzz will fail.

[O]

I was pretty sure you were town at the end Cuzz...if only because I thought Robz was scum.  Insomniac certainly convinced me his partner was Robz (his buddying there definitely put him up on my list).  But really, sparky's early comment where he used nearly the exact same language to describe his scumbuddy and a town player that was alive at the end and suspicious sold it.  If you had gone after Grujah-Insomniac, I would have been fully convinced you were town (I guess we still would have lost if Robz wasn't to be convinced, but ah well, that's that).

Really, I think the lesson we should take from this (and MVIII) is that town should NOT vote for me at lylo, especially if someone I suspected as scum when no one else was willing to just died.  This is 2 in a row, where my suspicion was misplaced, scum killed the person I suspected, and I was incorrectly voted on to lose the game.

Eh, MVIII I killed insomniac because he tunneled you, not visa versa.

This game the lesson is to not have 2 townies tunnel town O the entire game  .

[Cuzz]

LOL I forgot I said this night 3

Insomniac
10-11-2012
02:53 PM ET (US)
EDIT
DELETE
Cuzz will definetly protect you or Robz, so I'm not worried about being blocked here, if Cuzz doctors a VT well....thats bad doctoring. that said if you manage to hit the vt he doctors and bus it with cuzz then Cuzz will fail.

Haha I noticed that. Volt must have been laughing so hard.

[Grujah]

Just realised that it would have been possible for Cuzz to be SK, and that he could have targeted some people too. (only to kill and not protect)
N1 he shoots Eevee, misses.
N2 he shoots Frisk, doubles on us.
N3 he shoots busdriven theo, shooting himself instead, and if this works as Magic, he is now an illegal target and he doesn't fire.


We would have won in that case too. (As Robz was truthful with his tracks, he was obvtracker, so we would know Cuzz is SK. Roleblock + shoot, vote no lynch and shoot again. Unless he took Strongman/ninja kill, than it would be hairy).

[Captain_Frisk]

As soon as all the claims were in, you guys should have known there was no SK.  If he was SK - then there would have been a different scum role alignment, right?

[Grujah]

I think it was the same mafiaroles eitherway. Cant check

[Insomniac]

If Cuzz wasn't a PR we would have had 2 Goons and a JOAT. (No bus) sometime on day 1 I realized on the seven roles based on our PR's there was a Minimum of 5 PR's in the town and up to 7. I was scared...

[Robz888]

I had a dream last night that I remembered Grujah's claim was less credible than Cuzz's, we lynched Grujah instead of theorel, Cuzz protected me in the night and was shot by Insomniac, I tracked theorel and got "one one", and theorel and I lynched insomniac the next day and town won.

An honest-to-God dream. That's how much losing this game is on my mind.

[Insomniac]

I had a dream last night that I remembered Grujah's claim was less credible than Cuzz's, we lynched Grujah instead of theorel, Cuzz protected me in the night and was shot by Insomniac, I tracked theorel and got "one one", and theorel and I lynched insomniac the next day and town won.

An honest-to-God dream. That's how much losing this game is on my mind.

Lol I like to believe you would have trusted theorel had we lynched Grujah (who btw I would have mega bussed if there was any suspicion towards him). I really do. But we both know you would have still picked me over theorel.

Oh and btw if you were still alive I would have no killed in the night.

[Cuzz]

I had a dream last night that I remembered Grujah's claim was less credible than Cuzz's, we lynched Grujah instead of theorel, Cuzz protected me in the night and was shot by Insomniac, I tracked theorel and got "one one", and theorel and I lynched insomniac the next day and town won.

An honest-to-God dream. That's how much losing this game is on my mind.

I know that feel bro.

Just remembered during the game I considered doing something somewhat insane. When I got to L-1, I thought about claiming VT. I remembered in MX when I claimed VT Eevee basically cleared me and said "scum would have claimed a PR," and I wondered if the same thing would fly. It probably would have come back to bite me in the ass if I had to claim doc on a later day (lynch all liars and whatnot) or I just would have gotten hammered right then, so I didn't do it obviously. But I was really pissed at myself for getting to L-1 and really really didn't want to have to out my role and get auto-NK'd. That's why I hesitated with the claim a bit. Probably would have been really stupid but game would have been very different.

[Insomniac]

I had a dream last night that I remembered Grujah's claim was less credible than Cuzz's, we lynched Grujah instead of theorel, Cuzz protected me in the night and was shot by Insomniac, I tracked theorel and got "one one", and theorel and I lynched insomniac the next day and town won.

An honest-to-God dream. That's how much losing this game is on my mind.

I know that feel bro.

Just remembered during the game I considered doing something somewhat insane. When I got to L-1, I thought about claiming VT. I remembered in MX when I claimed VT Eevee basically cleared me and said "scum would have claimed a PR," and I wondered if the same thing would fly. It probably would have come back to bite me in the ass if I had to claim doc on a later day (lynch all liars and whatnot) or I just would have gotten hammered right then, so I didn't do it obviously. But I was really pissed at myself for getting to L-1 and really really didn't want to have to out my role and get auto-NK'd. That's why I hesitated with the claim a bit. Probably would have been really stupid but game would have been very different.

I beleive TINAS did this in M1 where he was the cop. Town won that game, didn't lynch TINAS.

[Ozle]

Only because of the lynch all counter claim rule they had.
And I STILL nearly convinced them to lynch him...even after getting my role wrong and having no idea what I was doing

[Galzria]

Only because of the lynch all counter claim rule they had.
And I STILL nearly convinced them to lynch him...even after getting my role wrong and having no idea what I was doing

Lynch all counter-claims would've worked here too, funny enough.

[Insomniac]

Only because of the lynch all counter claim rule they had.
And I STILL nearly convinced them to lynch him...even after getting my role wrong and having no idea what I was doing

Lynch all counter-claims would've worked here too, funny enough.

On Grujah.

[ehunt]

I had a friend explain lynch all cc's to me mathematically in a simplified model. It was pretty persuasive although I can't reproduce the proof.

[Ozle]

I had a friend explain lynch all cc's to me mathematically in a simplified model. It was pretty persuasive although I can't reproduce the proof.

Don't really need maths, you lynch counter claims, especially early on because if you lynch them and it turns out to be town you have a guarenteed mafia. 1 for 1 is a good deal unless you are near lylo, which is why making the claim first is a terrible terrible strat for mafia, even if they get the player lynched

[Captain_Frisk]

So, if you know that a claimant is lying - then why would you ever claim?

[Insomniac]

So, if you know that a claimant is lying - then why would you ever claim?

1-1 is an amazing trade off.

[Ozle]

So, if you know that a claimant is lying - then why would you ever claim?

Was that aimed at me?
Don't understand the question if it is.

I thought I was saying the opposite, that the first claimant is likely to be telling the truth. The counter claim is likely to be a lie

[Cuzz]

So, if you know that a claimant is lying - then why would you ever claim?

Was that aimed at me?
Don't understand the question if it is.

I thought I was saying the opposite, that the first claimant is likely to be telling the truth. The counter claim is likely to be a lie

I think the question is that if you yourself are a PR, and someone else claims, why would you out them knowing that town will lynch you as the second claim? But I think Insom answered this well above.