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Author Topic: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (THE GAME IS OVER: MAFIA WINS!!)  (Read 155884 times)

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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #850 on: September 30, 2012, 11:49:51 pm »

Well, hold on. Unvote
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #851 on: September 30, 2012, 11:51:46 pm »

If we do massclaim, we should be able to count up the number of power roles... and then see if that would mean we have SK or no SK. The deaths last night suggest to me that there is no SK.

But of course if we actually have 2 Doctors and a Jailkeeper, it's just very likely we blocked one of the kills. So... ugh.

Yeah, I still don't actually think massclaiming is a good idea. It would be a good idea if I trusted Frisk.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #852 on: September 30, 2012, 11:52:20 pm »

No, I'm decided.

Vote: Grujah

Lurking Grujah isn't powerful townie Grujah.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #853 on: September 30, 2012, 11:53:54 pm »

Hedging much?

Vote: RobZ

If he's town, this game is over anyway.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #854 on: September 30, 2012, 11:59:38 pm »

RobZ - if you're town - I strongly advise that you reconsider.  Grujah claiming 2nd doc without reading (or knowing that I'm a JK) is retarded stupid.

If Grujah AND I were both scum, then I'd be retarded to early claim to save his ass.  I would be firing up the buss and running his ass over.

Whether there is 1 or 2 doctors, it is unlikely that we have many other PRs, and if they we do, they probably suckish.  (Tracker, 1 shot commuter, Vengeful, yet another doctor, flavor cop)

Even so, I'm the #1 target, and doctor(s?) would probably be 2nd, so they will live long enough to possibly use their powers ANYWAY.
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O

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #855 on: October 01, 2012, 01:21:51 am »

Lets see: Would PR O quickhammer D1 with Vigs out? Of course he would, I'm the real doctor!!

No? Oh right I'm VT like every goddamn game i'm town (1-shot doc/siblings doesn't count in a semi role madness game robz).

Much to Frisk's chagrin, I don't think Robz is scummiest anymore. I think Theorel is pretty goddamn scummy for his nonsensical tunneling of me and lack of any contributions to anything whatsoever.

Grujah is still scummy but there's no reason to lynch the scummy claimed doctor over other scummy people.

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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #856 on: October 01, 2012, 01:31:03 am »

I still highly suspect Grujah is scum because his claim seems so fake, however I am willing to follow Frisk on this mass claim as I said before if the consensus is that we should. I just don't believe we have 2 doctors AND a jailkeeper and Cuzz's claim seems more legitamate.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #857 on: October 01, 2012, 05:27:29 am »

Back from Prerelease, took extra long cuz I missed a bus back. Will post tonight. Scimmed and seems like Robz is heavy pushing me and Frisk wants a massclaim.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #858 on: October 01, 2012, 07:24:32 am »

Vote Count 2-15

O (1): theorel
Grujah (4): Cuzz, Insomniac, sparky5856, Robz888
Insomniac (1): Grujah
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: O

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, October 13, 3:00 p.m. EDT

EDIT:  Grujah vote count fixed.
2ND EDIT:  Robz vote count fixed.  Sorry gang.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 02:05:06 pm by Voltgloss »
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #859 on: October 01, 2012, 08:14:27 am »

I think that vote count here might be mistaken.  If RobZ is voting for Grujah, that looks suspiciously like (4)
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #860 on: October 01, 2012, 08:14:59 am »

Let's see: 9 players.
Suppose Grujah, Cuzz, and Frisk are all telling the truth.  I know I'm town (obviously other players will have to substitute themselves if they're town.  If they're mafia, they already know what's going on).
That means ONE of O, Insomniac, Robz, joth, and sparky is town.  1 is SK, the other 3 mafia.

If that's true, then the scum have played a very strong game here, because I cannot see 3 of those 5 as mafia.

I could see 2 of them being mafia, which only requires one of the doctor claims to be lying.

Some random notes on Frisk's plan.
1. strongman breaks jailkeeper too (breaks roleblock).  All they have to do is use a strongman kill and it will go through regardless of any town actions.  Hence, you CANNOT protect any of you, you can only make scum use their strongman kill.  So, no wasted kill by the scum, and no chance they'll kill VT IF you're all telling the truth.
2. After that they still have bus-driving and roleblocking so they can still kill everyone.

In short, Frisk's plan does not in fact PROTECT any of our claimers, only uses scum resources that have little use outside of breaking protections in order to kill them.  And this is assuming everyone is telling the truth.

@ Frisk: I don't see a strong reason scum wouldn't claim doctor even after reading another doctor claim.  Hoping to pull a jailkeeper (or no keeper) claim is a legitimate strategy.  Planning on a team-mate stepping in if it seemed no one else would claim is also reasonable.
OTOH: I feel like you play a very different game when it comes to PRs than other people.  (combining this with your MIX? play where you said you wanted everyone to hit L-1 and claim).  So, I can understand why you would think as you do concerning Grujah.

So, really the questions should be:
1. Is one of the doctor claims sufficiently more trustworthy?
Cuzz: all of his comments at start of day are just as attributable to a scum-team that wanted to kill Eevee and decided to kill Ashersky to do so (IMO).
Grujah: his breadcrumbs are weak-sauce.  I don't think a second doctor-claim which is likely to pull another PR is inherently more believable, whether he read or not.
-result: Cuzz is more believable, but it's not straining credibility to think that he may have lied.  I don't think his claim is far and away more believable than Grujah's, I'd give it like a 60-40 split in believability.

2. Is Frisk's claim believable?
Actually, I'd say his claim seems fairly believable.  It's possible that scum-Frisk would fake-claim to save a team mate, but he still hasn't seemed over-much like scum-Frisk this game.

3. Should we mass-claim?
Well, given that I already think that these three claims are unreasonable (simply because of who it implies are the scum this game), I don't see a strong reason to.  I don't think it's pro-town to do so.

Anyways, I don't really like lynching one of the suggested PRs because I don't find sufficient reason to disbelieve them.  I think Grujah is the best one there to lynch, but only by a thin margin.  I think a mass-claim would make me more comfortable with it (depending on how many additional PR claims we pick up), but I don't think that we should do it just to be comfortable with the lynch.  I would go along if the remaining majority wants it, but I don't feel strongly whether we should.
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #861 on: October 01, 2012, 08:49:07 am »

Theorel you give me too much credit. I am a truly terrible liar.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #862 on: October 01, 2012, 09:17:14 am »

@theorel - who do you think is lying of the 3 of us?

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #863 on: October 01, 2012, 09:46:19 am »

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #864 on: October 01, 2012, 10:00:41 am »

Theorel:

Regarding mass claiming

How many of the 3 claimants do you think are lying?

If the answer is 0 - then your analysis is spot on.  There are 4 scum out of the remaining 6 players.  If you rule yourself out, then you can only pick 1 townie out of the remaining.

If the answer is 1 - then there are 2 options:

1. There are no more PRs, and we only have 3 scum total.  You still need to pick 2 scum out of the 5 other people.  There is NO DOWNSIDE TO MASSCLAIMING HERE, because everyone is VT.
2. If there are more PRs, then you're back in the same boat.  We have 4 scum, and even if one of the doctors (Cuzz / Grujah) is lying, then you still need to find 3 scum out of the 5 non claimants - which you apparently don't believe.

If 2 of us are lying, then thats some crazy shit.

All 3 of us can't be lying because I'm not.

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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #865 on: October 01, 2012, 10:05:49 am »

@Frisk: I thought I was clear...I find Grujah the most likely liar, just not by a long shot.

To further clarify: it's not a choice between the three of you.  There are several possibilities:
1. You're all telling the truth.  I don't find this compelling because of who it implicates as scum.  Though, it is possible, and I might should consider it more strongly...if O is scum, and 1 off-wagon player is scum (i.e. Insom/sparky), and one of Robz/joth is scum...that's plausible to me.  Though still, a liar seems more likely.

2. One of you is lying.  This only works if it's either Grujah OR Cuzz.  Frisk can't be the sole liar here.  Between Grujah and Cuzz, Grujah is more likely.  But, I could see a case for Cuzz lying, especially if one of his supporters is also scum.  (To clarify, I don't think Cuzz needs to be a great liar for this to be reasonable.  Unlike Robz, I do not see his start-of-day comments to be setting up a doctor claim, they were simply comments about the night kill that fit a doctor claim).

3. Two of you are lying.  I find this unlikely.  However, if it were true I would lean towards Frisk-Grujah lying together.  Their stories support each other, and I think that in a multi-fake-claim case it's most likely that the scum stories support rather than contradict.  Ultimately then, this just adds to the case for believing that Grujah is the liar.  There is the vague possibility that one of the "doctor"s is a SK instead.

4. You're all lying.  I find this very unlikely.  But it would pretty much mean (to me) that Frisk/Grujah are mafia and Cuzz is SK.  Of course if we have no other PRs than those already killed, this could actually be all of the scum in the game.  That'd be weird though.

So, 2 is most likely, and the most likely liar is Grujah, but I can see an argument for Cuzz lying.  1 is more likely to me than 3.


So, that leads to the conclusion (IMO) that we should lynch a non-claimant.  If at most one of you is lying that means that we have as many as 3 scum in the remaining 5 players (as few as 2 if no SK).  That (to me) gives the highest probability of hitting scum.  If I thought that Case 2 above meant Grujah was lying with greater than 60% probability I would think we should lynch him.  I'm not that convinced that the liar (assuming there is one) must be Grujah.  Although I am right about on that line.
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #866 on: October 01, 2012, 10:06:22 am »

@Frisk part 2:

I said I didn't think 3 of the 5 were mafia, I could definitely see 2 mafia + SK there.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #867 on: October 01, 2012, 10:08:56 am »

Next up in the claim chain is Joth, even though I'm agreeing with him right now, I still don't like him.
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #868 on: October 01, 2012, 10:18:50 am »

Regarding mass-claiming.
I think you're off here.  I think I was off also on whether we had a SK.  I'm not sure at what point we got off.
If 1 of you is lying and everyone else is VT, then we have 4 non-town rolls.  This leaves us in the case where we have a SK.
If we have another PR among the 6 non-claimants, then we have no SK.

Now, there are some cases where 2 "non-T" rolls result in a single PR.  So the other cases get a little funky, because if we have, i.e. a gunsmith, we have fewer PRs than non-T rolls.

Anyways, can't assume SK after we assume a doctor is lying.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #869 on: October 01, 2012, 10:21:41 am »

Regarding mass-claiming.
I think you're off here.  I think I was off also on whether we had a SK.  I'm not sure at what point we got off.
If 1 of you is lying and everyone else is VT, then we have 4 non-town rolls.  This leaves us in the case where we have a SK.
If we have another PR among the 6 non-claimants, then we have no SK.

Now, there are some cases where 2 "non-T" rolls result in a single PR.  So the other cases get a little funky, because if we have, i.e. a gunsmith, we have fewer PRs than non-T rolls.

Anyways, can't assume SK after we assume a doctor is lying.

Do you agree that the odds are that everyone else is VT?
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theorel

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #870 on: October 01, 2012, 10:28:19 am »

Bah, I got it wrong again at the end.
IF no one is lying and no more PRs, we have NO SK.  (2T = no SK)  My analysis was off, only 3 scum in remaining 5 all mafia.  So, 2 town players.  My second analysis is correct since I left the SK out.
If one is lying and ONE PR we have NO SK.
If one is lying and no other PR then SK.

So, anyways taking away a T for the fake-claimed doctor makes the wrong conclusion about SK existence...and it's confusing.

PPE: No, I don't think the odds are in favor of everyone else being VT.  Conditional probability, Gambler's Fallacy, etc.  Even if you were all telling the truth, we would have a >50% chance of more PRs.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #871 on: October 01, 2012, 10:35:13 am »

Bah, I got it wrong again at the end.
IF no one is lying and no more PRs, we have NO SK.  (2T = no SK)  My analysis was off, only 3 scum in remaining 5 all mafia.  So, 2 town players.  My second analysis is correct since I left the SK out.
If one is lying and ONE PR we have NO SK.
If one is lying and no other PR then SK.

So, anyways taking away a T for the fake-claimed doctor makes the wrong conclusion about SK existence...and it's confusing.

PPE: No, I don't think the odds are in favor of everyone else being VT.  Conditional probability, Gambler's Fallacy, etc.  Even if you were all telling the truth, we would have a >50% chance of more PRs.

You are correct, but I think the incremental "damage" by roleclaiming is reduced if there are additional PRs, because scum already have to work through 2 PRs of probably higher priority.
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Cuzz

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #872 on: October 01, 2012, 10:47:10 am »

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #873 on: October 01, 2012, 10:48:39 am »

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

Haha, yes! Exactly. Although Jo might actually be the their third guy. You never know.
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia XII: A Fistful of Waffles! (DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY)
« Reply #874 on: October 01, 2012, 10:50:08 am »

I think Robz and Cuzz are scum. I think Frisk is absolutely right that he's caught panic-mode scum Robz flailing to protect his lying teammate.

Vote: Robz (which I was already doing, but I encourage people to join us before someone hammers Gru)

I think you're absolutely right that we've caught panic-mode scum flailing to protect his lying teammate. But his name is Captain_Frisk.

As scum, how carefully did you pick those words? 
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